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Atlanta Braves starter Chris Sale dominates on the mound and typically racks up the Ks.

However, Toronto Blue Jays infielder Ernie Clement is a tough out and hardly ever strikes out, making his strikeout Under a solid value play at -115 tonight.  

Read on for my Blue Jays vs. Braves predictions and MLB Picks for this Thursday, June 4 matchup. 

Blue Jays vs Braves predictions

Blue Jays vs Braves best bet: Ernie Clement Under 0.5 K’s (-115)

The betting market is giving Chris Sale too much credit on this prop, leaving it mispriced on the Under. Ernie Clement matches up well against Sale’s pitching profile.

The Atlanta Braves starter relies heavily on chase and swing-and-miss with his slider to generate strikeouts, but that's a difficult formula against Clement.

The Toronto Blue Jays infielder owns the highest chase rate in baseball, yet maintains a minuscule 14% whiff rate while ranking in the 99th percentile in strikeout rate at just 8%.

Moreover, the Jays' infielder has cleared his Under 0.5 strikeouts prop in seven of his last 10 outings. 

I’d bet Clement under 0.5 strikeouts up to -125. 

COVERS INTEL: Clement owns just a 2.5% whiff rate with zero strikeouts against the four-seamer/slider pitch types when facing left-handed pitchers. Sale owns an 80% usage rate on those pitches. 

Blue Jays vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)

Kazuma Okamoto has never faced Sale, but profiles well against him. Okamoto crushes the fastball and slider off LHP, owning a .400 average against them with a .667 xSLG. I’ll add  Over 0.5 hits for Okamoto.

For similar reasons, I’ll also add George Springer Over 0.5 hits as well. He owns a .300 average against the fastball/slider from lefties and owns a 26% hit-rate in 30 at-bats against Sale. 

Blue Jays vs Braves SGP

• Ernie Clement Uner 0.5 strikeouts
• Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 hits
• George Springer Over 0.5 hits

Blue Jays vs Braves home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+405)

Sale keeps the ball in the yard, so we’ll make this just a half-unit wager.

However, if there’s one Bluejay who profiles well enough to do damage tonight, it's Okamoto.

Okamoto owns a .400 average with a 65% hard hit rate against the four-seamer/slider combination, which has a 80% usage rate with those pitches.

Additionally, he’s one of the only Bluejays hitting with Power on a consistent basis, ranking in the 96th percentile in hard-hit rate, which has led to a team lead of 13 home runs in 2026. 

Blue Jays vs Braves odds

• Moneyline: Toronto +154 | Atlanta -170
• Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-125) | Atlanta -1.5 (+105)
• Over/Under: Over 7 (-105) | Under 7 (-115)

Blue Jays vs Braves trend

The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 30 away games (+7.25 Units / 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Braves.

How to watch Blue Jays vs Braves and game info

Blue Jays vs Braves latest injuries

Blue Jays vs Braves weather

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Overall, it was a pretty abysmal day down on the farm as not a single Atlanta minor league affiliate was able to scratch out a win on Wednesday. With that being said, there were a few individual performances that stood out, so let’s get into it.

(30-29) Gwinnett Stripers 4, (23-36) Norfolk Tide 6

• Jair Camargo, C: 2-3, HR, 2B, 2 RBI, R
• Jim Jarvis, SS: 2-4, RBI
• Aaron Schunk, 1B: 1-4, 2B, RBI, R
• Elieser Hernandez, SP: 6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 6 K

Box Score

Gwinnett came up short on Wednesday night, losing to Norfolk as the bullpen blew a tie game in the top half of the ninth inning as the Tide came away with the win.

Elieser Hernandez got the start for the Stripers and despite giving up a pair of runs in the top of the first to give Norfolk a 2-0 lead, he settled in quite nicely and put up a solid outing. Across six innings of work, Hernandez gave up three runs and struck out six in the process.

Trailing by two runs, Gwinnett tied things up in the bottom of the second thanks to a pair of RBI doubles off the bats of Aaron Schunk and Jair Camargo — more on him later.

Norfolk retook the lead by scoring one run in each of the fifth and seventh innings, but the Stripers managed to tie things up yet again, this time with a solo homer from Camargo and an RBI-single from Jim Jarvis to make it a 4-4 game.

However, the Stripers bullpen failed to keep the Tide at bay as Hayden Harris and James Karinchak each gave up one run in the ninth inning to give Norfolk the 6-4 lead, which held as the final in this one.

(24-267) Columbus Clingstones 1, (27-25) Rocket City Trash Pandas 3

• David McCabe, 1B: 2-3, HR, RBI, R, BB
• Logan Braunschweig, RF: 2-4
• Brett Sears, SP: 4 IP, 2 H, 8 K

Box Score

Despite getting an excellent start on the mound from Brett Sears, the Columbus offense failed to match his performance as the Clingstones were held to just the one run on Wednesday.

Simply put, Sears was downright dominant. While he only went four innings, he made the most of them as he only surrendered two hits but managed to strike out a whopping eight batters in the process. Wednesday’s outing marked the fourth straight scoreless start for Sears as he’s watched his season ERA across double-A and triple-A drop to 2.18. While he is 26 at the double-A level, it’s nice to see Sears miss more bats and limit the damage when he does give up a hit or two.

As we mentioned, there wasn’t much to write home about in terms of the Clingstones’ offense in this one. However, they did get off to a hot start as David McCabe launched the first pitch he saw on the day over the left field wall for a solo homer to give Columbus the early 1-0 lead with two outs in the top of the first inning.

The Clingstones did manage to outhit Rocket City by a 7-4 margin, but failed to string together any type of meaningful at-bats as Adam Zebrowski had the only other extra base hit — a double to lead off the top of the second inning.

(28-25) Rome Emperors 3, (21-30) Greenville Drive 9

• Mac Guscette 1-4, HR, RBI, R
• Isaiah Drake, LF: 1-5, 2B, R
• Will Verdung, 3B: 3-3, 2B
• Cedric De Grandpre, SP: 5 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 7 K

Box Score

Keeping with an unfortunate trend across the Atlanta farm system on Wednesday, Rome lost against Greenville by a 9-3 margin.

Cedric De Grandpre — who has been able to put up solid strikeout numbers, but has also had some trouble keeping the ball in the yard this season — didn’t have his best stuff in this one. In his five frames of work, the 24-year-old gave up four runs on five hits, but did manage to strikeout seven batters in the process. To date, De Grandpre has only had two outings in which he has not yielded a run — his season debut on April 2 and a seven strikeout, 10-inning performance on May 16.

Getting back to Wednesday’s action, the Emperors only managed five hits on the day with three of those coming off the bat of Will Verdung who added a double to his tally.

The biggest offensive blow courtesy of the Rome offense came in the bottom of the fifth as Mac Guscette launched his second homer of the year over the left field wall to cut the deficit to 4-1 at the time.

While the offense had a hard time matching the nine runs scored by Greenville, one impressive highlight came in the eighth inning as Cody Miller — who was playing second base — ranged to his right into shortstop territory to slide and make an excellent stop before popping up and making the throw to get the runner at first in what was easily the best defensive play of the day for the Emperors.

(30-23) Augusta GreenJackets 5, (18-35) Delmarva Shorebirds 10

• Cooper McMurray, 1B: 2-3, HR, 2 RBI, R, BB
• Tate Southisene, SS: 1-5, RBI, R, SB
• Conor Essenburg, CF: 1-5
• Junior Garcia, RF: 2-4, R
• Ethan Bagwell, SP: 4.2 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 6 K

Box Score

This was a really disappointing loss for Augusta against what isn’t exactly a strong Delmarva team than won just it’s 18th game of the season by beating the GreenJackets.

Things went downhill pretty quick from the jump in this one, as Ethan Bagwell didn’t exactly have his best stuff. The Shorebirds managed to tag Bagwell for one run in the first inning and three runs in the third inning to take a 4-0 lead. Bagwell would eventually give up two more runs, bringing his total to six runs allowed on the day in what was easily his worst outing of the year to this point.

The Augusta offense did its best to try and stay in the game. In fact, the GreenJackets actually tied the game at 4-4 in the bottom of the fourth inning thanks to a two-run bomb from Cooper McMurray and a pair of run-scoring singles from both Tate Southisene and Conor Essenburg.

However, with Bagwell giving up three more runs and the bullpen also giving up three more runs, it was simply too much to overcome.

One bright spot in terms of pitching was lefty Adiel Melendez who, in 2.1 innings of work, held Delmarva scoreless while striking out three batters. After a couple of rougher outings in late April and early May, the undrafted free agent has come into his own to lower his ERA to 3.68 while striking out 18 in 14.2 innings pitched.

(0-2) DSL Braves 2, (1-1) DSL Astros Blue 6

• Starlyn De La Cruz, CF: 2-3, 2B, R, BB
• Jose Manon, SS: 2-4, 2B
• Sherrintley Da Costa Gomez, LF: 1-2, 2B, R, BB
• Martires Polanco, SP: 4 IP, H, R, 3 BB, 7 K

Box Score

The DSL Braves played their second game of the season on Wednesday, and a handful of players stood out above the rest.

Top international signees Starlyn De La Cruz and Jose Manon had significant days at the plate, as they both tallied a pair of hits, including one double each, on the day. De La Cruz also scored one of the Braves’ two runs on the day as well.

Sherrintley Da Costa Gomez also had a solid day at the plate, going 1-2 with a double and a run scored to his credit to go along with a walk.

On the pitching side of things, Martires Polanco made his debut on the mound for the Braves. Across just four innings of work, Polanco was excellent as the 19-year-old allowed just one hit and one unearned run while striking out seven in the process. He did walk three batters, so his control needs a little refining, which isn’t out of the ordinary for a younger arm.

Days before its opening day of its second full season, Athletes Unlimited Softball League is getting a new influx of cash.

AUSL announced a new group of strategic investors on Thursday, June 4 that includes Milwaukee Brewers owner Mark Attanasio and MLB Hall of Fame pitcher Nolan Ryan. Ryan’s partners with Ryan Sanders Baseball – Reid Ryan and Don Sanders – are also investing in the league. 

The Brewers become the first MLB club to invest directly in the AUSL. Folks who were already invested in AUSL include NBA superstar Kevin Durant and his longtime business partner Rich Kleiman.

"The momentum just continues to build. It's building for softball as a whole and the AUSL is seeing that momentum on every level, and so we couldn't be more excited to be bringing in the Brewers and Ryan Sanders. I think it's a testament to their belief in the opportunity and the future ahead," Jon Patricof, the CEO and co-founder of Athletes Unlimited, told USA TODAY Sports. "For us, not only their capital, but their expertise are going to be hugely valuable."

There were lots and lots of hits in Binghamton. There were not many at all down in St. Lucie. The Phillies prospects played a quartet of games against the Mets’ affiliates, and won three of them. Gotta get that rivalry started early.

Rochester 5, Lehigh Valley 3

The IronPigs held their foes scoreless for eight of nine innings. Unfortunately, the one inning they didn’t— a five-run second— was enough to sink them. Starter Tucker Davidson had a rough night, taking the loss. Ryan Cusick pitched four scoreless in relief, and Felix Reyes hit a two-run homer to put Lehigh Valley back in striking distance, but the Red Wings ended up flying to victory over the IronPigs.

Binghamton 16, Reading 11

They were not lacking for runs in New York. The Fightin Phils had a good night at the plate, with Dante Nori going three for six, and Aroon Escobar adding a hit and a pair of free passes. But starter Jean Cabrera struggled, allowing nine hits and nine runs, all earned. His night ended after just 1.1 innings of work. A trio of relievers steadied the ship, but Colin Peluse allowed a quintet of runs in the seventh (four earned), and the Fightins couldn’t recover.

Jersey Shore 5, Brooklyn 4 (1o)

The BlueClaws were kept quiet on offense, at first. They had only one run through six. But they scored a trio in the seventh, then held their Brooklynite foes scoreless in the eighth and ninth to force extras. The Cyclones couldn’t muster a run in the tenth, and that made things simple for the BlueClaws. Tyler Pettorini gamely sacrificed himself via a bunt to put the ghost runner on third, and Luis Caicuto ended it with a single to right. Center fielder Pedro León was three for four on the night, and starter Sam Highfill made the Cyclones dizzy, with 8 strikeouts through five IP.

Clearwater 2, St. Lucie 0

After being rained out yesterday, Clearwater had a doubleheader against the St. Lucie Mets today. And they started it in grand fashion. A trio of Threshers hurlers took to the mound, and not one of them allowed a hit. Tanner Gresham K’d 8 Mets through five innings, Marty Gair continued the no-no in the sixth, and Gabe Craig struck out the side to complete it. The game only ran seven innings due to the Single-A doubleheader rules. Nevertheless, a no-hitter is always to be celebrated, even more so when it comes against the next generation of Mets. The Threshers were themselves held scoreless through five, but plated two runs in the sixth in scrappy fashion, with Griffin Burkholder and Robert Phelps making it to base on a walk and error, respectively, Nathan Humphreys showing that the sacrifice bunt is not a lost art, and Alirio Ferrebus singling to send the first two home.

Clearwater 5, St. Lucie 3

The Threshers continued their no-hitter through nine, in a sense: they held the Mets hitless through the first two innings of the second game. Jaeden Calderon hit a homer in the third to give Clearwater a lead, which they surrendered in the bottom fifth. But the Threshers were not content to settle for a split, even if their half of it was a no-hitter. Instead, they chose late-inning heroics, scoring four in the seventh (and final) inning via a pair of singles, a walk, and a pair of errors. Cody Bowker had 6 strikeouts through four as the Threshers concluded a very successful day in St. Lucie.

The San Diego Padres have truly been stuck in a rut lately. The club has been unable to score enough runs to back their starting pitchers. The Friars struggled through the first six innings before scoring a run against Philadelphia Phillies’ ace Cristopher Sánchez on an RBI-single from Jackson Merrill. The lone run ended the lefty’s historic 50 2/3 scoreless innings streak.

Unfortunately, reliever Jason Adam would immediately give up the game on two mistakes, resulting in home runs to J.T. Realmuto and Kyle Schwarber in the bottom of the seventh. Despite the Friars tacking on a run in the eighth against reliever Brad Keller, it wasn’t enough to back starter Walker Buehler’s one-run outing.

The Padres need a win. Badly. They need it any way they can get it. Hopefully that win will come today, and San Diego can salvage the series finale against Philly.

Taking the mound

Zack Wheeler (PHI) v. Lucas Giolito (SD)

The former ace returned from his season-ending surgery in 2025 and picked up right where he left off. Wheeler has pitched to a 2.27 ERA across 43 2/3 innings with a ridiculously low 0.85 WHIP. He’s been a large part of Philadelphia’s recent turnaround.

The righty got rocked by the rival Los Angeles Dodgers in his last start, allowing four runs (each on a solo home run) across six innings of work. San Diego will need to punish his mistakes in order to stave off the sweep.

Giolito had a similar poor outing recently, giving up four runs in just 2 2/3 innings pitched against the Washington Nationals this weekend. After two solid starts to the year, it was a tough watch. Giolito has struggled with command and will need to fix that when facing the Phillies’ sluggers.

His 4.97 ERA is a little misleading. He’s pitched much better than that stat line would suggest, but Giolito has also not done a lot as of late to prove that he deserves better consideration. Hopefully he’ll be able to do that this afternoon.

Batter up!

Ty France has continued to prove his usefulness, going 2-for-4 with a double in yesterday’s game. Fernando Tatis Jr. has also continued to heat up, going 1-for-4 and scoring a run for the Friars.

1. Fernando Tatis Jr., 2B
2. Gavin Sheets, LF
3. Miguel Andujar, DH
4. Manny Machado, 3B
5. Ty France, 1B
6. Jackson Merrill, CF
7. Xander Bogaerts, SS
8. Jase Bowen, RF
9. Freddy Fermin, C

Most of the Padres have yet to face Wheeler but, of the ones who have, Xander Bogaerts and Merrill have had the most success. They boast a respective .300 and .286 career batting average alongside a 1.064 and 1.429 OPS against the righty.

Relief corps

With Buehler going six innings, San Diego only used two pitchers to finish out the game, with Adam and Wandy Peralta covering the final two innings. That leaves the ‘pen fresh for today should Giolito falter early again.

Jeremiah Estrada, Ron Marinaccio, Yuki Matsui, Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon and Bradgley Rodriguez will all be readily available to pitch. With the Padres on a losing streak, Miller hasn’t pitched since last Friday. Hopefully he’ll get the chance to come out in the series finale today.

Happy Thursday all!

The A’s have taken the first two of three versus the Chicago Cubs after winning Tuesday, coming back in last night’s game and giving themselves a chance at a series sweep. They sit at 30-31, in second place in the AL West by two games and currently occupying the third and final Wild Card spot with a half-game lead over the Texas Rangers. The American League is weirdly bunched together two months into the season. For example, the Boston Red Sox are eight games under .500 but still within three and a half games of a playoff spot (but with five teams ahead of them). The Wild Card race is looking more and more likely it’ll be a year-long affair involving a majority of the teams in the Junior Circuit.

For tonight’s finale in The Windy City, it’ll be J.T. Ginn getting the ball hoping to propel the A’s to a series win. He’s coming off a fantastic performance last time out when he shut down the New York Yankees’ potent offense for six scoreless innings last weekend. The A’s would gladly take more of the same from their young right-hander this evening. The A’s have set themselves up for the sweep and have their best pitcher on the mound. Getting out of Chicago with three wins is very doable.

Off the field, shortstop Jacob Wilson continues to progress from his dislocated shoulder. He was seen taking batting practice at Wrigley Field yesterday afternoon before the game, and from the video it seems like his shoulder is in good shape:

It seems that the team really did avoid a worst-case scenario with Wilson’s shoulder. Many times shoulder dislocations require surgery, or at a minimum any absence is measured in months not weeks. Since he’s been out for a good chunk of time it’s almost certain he’ll be going on a rehab assignment down in the minors, but he’s such a good hitter that he may not need more than a few at bats against lower-level pitching to be ready for an activation.

The A’s defense can not wait until Wilson returns. The shortstop has been out now for three-plus weeks and it’ll certainly be a full month before the team gets him back. Darell Hernaiz has handled shortstop duties in Wilson’s absence and has gone 17-for-58 (good for a .293 average) since taking over regular duties. He hasn’t been a huge liability in the field either, but the team is clearly better with Wilson in the everyday role. It’s good to know that Hernaiz can hold his own in a pinch moving forward.

Next up will be the Houston Astros. We will have a surprise starter on the mound tomorrow, not one of the arms that was just called up earlier in the week:

The promotion of Perkins to the starting rotation will make plenty of A’s fans happy. There was a belief that Friday’s series opener would feature either Kade Morris or Mason Barnett getting the ball for the start but it’ll instead be the right-hander who has been in the Athletics’ bullpen all season long.

The former 5th-round pick came up as a starting pitcher and turned heads on his way to the big leagues but has been used almost exclusively as a relief pitcher over the past two seasons. So far in 17 games for the A’s this year Perkins has a 5.46 ERA across 28 frames. He’s been hit especially hard in recent outings; the right-hander posted a 7.98 ERA in the month of May in just nine appearances out of the ‘pen. They’re not exactly promoting him to the starting five when he’s rolling.

He did make four starts in September to wrap up the year and held his own. There has been a belief that the bullpen is his likely long-term home but it seems the club is finally ready to give him a look here in 2026. With the state of the rotation right now there’s every chance that Perkins can parlay a strong start into another and hopefully follow a similar track as Ginn. High hopes but why not?

Morris and Barnett are as of this posting available for a Saturday afternoon start in the second game of the Houston series but nothing outside of Perkins getting the ball for the series opener in Houston has been confirmed. Neither of them pitched in the first two Cubs games so if one of them makes it into today’s finale, we’ll know Saturday’s starter is likely the other guy. Who would you guys rather start on Saturday in Houston?

Have a great day A’s fans.

A’s Coverage:

• Wednesday Potpourri: What’s Up With Butler, Closer, June Plan?
• Jump Dominant As Athletics Beat Cubs 2-1
• Three Things To Watch For The Athletics In June
• The A’s Inability To Play Well At Home Is Embarrassing
• A’s Unravel in Series and Homestand Finale
• A’s call up pitching prospect Kade Morris
• Road, sweet road? A’s ready for reset after rough homestand
• Ginn’s glow-up: A’s hurler coming into his own at right time
• Three Dark Horse Trade Candidates for Athletics This Summer
• June update: 2026 top 10 prospect rankings for all 30 MLB teams
• Athletics Early MLB Draft Preview
• The A’s may have finally found their new leadoff hitter
• A’s drop the game and Series to the Mariners, fall into second place
• Wilson takes swings in next step toward return from IL

MLB News and Interest:

• Corbin Burnes Suffers Teres Major Strain, Likely Out Until September
• Blue Jays To Acquire Simeon Woods Richardson From Twins
• Breaking down the All-Star Ballot position by position
• Altuve takes live BP, could return as early as weekend series vs. A’s
• Commissioner Manfred discusses exchange of initial proposals to begin CBA talks
• Padres designate Nick Castellanos for assignment; Taylor called up
• The Trade Deadline is 2 months away, but rumors are already swirling around Skubal
• Mets option Tong to Triple-A, recall Gerber to refresh bullpen
• Reds Option TJ Friedl, Recall Noelvi Marté
• Angels Re-Sign Joey Lucchesi On Minor League Deal
• Giants reliever Matt Gage goes on IL with knee inflammation
• The Pirates Finally Have an Offense
• Today in Baseball History

Best of X:

Kurtz is your May AL Player of the Month!

It was always meant to be:

…..oh…. (this was before last night’s game, too):

Even though it’ll be Perkins on Friday, it seems Morris and Barnett are still in the running for a start on Saturday:

When the White Sox signed Munetaka Murakami, there was hope.

There was optimism.

There was even a healthy amount of “what if?”

What there probably wasn’t was “first rookie since 1901 to hit 20 home runs before June.”

Yet here we are.

The American League announced Wednesday that Murakami has been named AL Rookie of the Month for May, a recognition that feels less like an award and more like an acknowledgment of the baseball fever dream he authored over the season’s first two months.

Before a right hamstring strain landed him on the injured list on May 30, Murakami spent the month terrorizing opposing pitchers. In 26 May games, the White Sox first baseman slashed .244/.382/.556 with eight home runs, 18 RBIs, 21 runs scored, and 19 walks. Among all major-league rookies, he led the way in homers, runs scored, and walks while tying for the lead in RBIs.

The power has been obvious from the moment he arrived. The patience has been nearly as impressive. Even during stretches when the batting average dipped, Murakami kept reaching base and kept hitting the ball with authority. That’s how a player can post a .937 OPS during a month where he hit “only” .244.

And the season totals remain downright ridiculous.

In 57 games, Murakami is slashing .240/.378/.560 with 20 home runs, 41 RBIs, 43 runs scored, and 44 walks. At the time of his injury, he was tied for the American League lead in both home runs and RBIs while ranking near the top of the league in runs scored, slugging percentage, OPS, and walks.

The pace was cartoonish: 58 home runs, 119 RBIs, 124 runs scored, and 127 walks over a full season.

For a franchise that has spent much of the last decade searching for impact hitters, Murakami immediately became one.

His 20 home runs before June didn’t just put him atop the rookie leaderboard. The feat had never been accomplished by a rookie in the modern era. In White Sox history, only Frank Thomas in 1994 and Jim Thome in 2006 had previously reached the 20-homer mark before the calendar flipped to June.

That’s elite company. That’s Hall of Fame company.

It’s also the latest reminder that Murakami’s transition from Nippon Professional Baseball to the major leagues has been far smoother than even the most optimistic projections could have imagined.

The White Sox will gladly trade individual awards for a healthy hamstring and a quick return to the lineup. Still, after two months spent rewriting record books and carrying the offense, Murakami has earned every bit of recognition coming his way.

The American League Rookie of the Month award is simply the latest piece of evidence.

And if his first two months in Chicago are any indication, it probably won’t be the last. Fingers crossed.

Good morning friends! Happy Mariners off-day to you.

The M’s saw their winning streak snapped yesterday in a 7-1 loss to the Mets. The M’s hit the road now for a stretch, going to Detroit, Baltimore, and Washington.

Importantly, it’s All-Star voting season. In my youth, I held steadfast to only voting for players who deserve it rather than just voting for my favorite players. But in recent years I’ve decided that I don’t care about voting for the “logical” choice. Life is too short to vote for someone else’s guy. Go vote Mariners!

In Mariners news…

• Former Mariners Ken Griffey, Jr. and Harold Reynolds will join former Yankees ace CC Sabathia to host Play Ball Live on the MLB YouTube channel this Friday in advance of the MLB Breakthrough Series in an interactive stream designed to “engage, excite and inspire youth baseball and softball players all over the world.”
• Baseball America released its monthly update of the top 100 prospects in baseball, with M’s right-hander Ryan Sloan officially being crowned the top pitching prospect in the sport.

Around the league…

• Diamondbacks right-hander Corbin Burnes is likely out until September after suffering a teres major strain.
• Nick Castellanos’ tenure in San Diego did not last long, as the Padres DFA’d the struggling outfielder.
• Rob Manfred made his first public comments about the economic proposals made by both sides, emphasizing the need to adjust the financial rules of the game for the sake of competitive balance.
• Young Dodgers right-hander Roki Sasaki is finally starting to reach his potential, writes Jay Jaffe at Fangraphs.
• Matthew Trueblood at Baseball Prospectus wonders what happened to the sidearm four-seam fastball. ($)
• Lukas Vlahos at Amazin’ Avenue has seen enough of Mets first baseman Mark Vientos.
• Kiri Oller at Fangraphs had some fun mapping real-life baseball personalities to the fake world of Pokémon Pokopia.
• Bradley Woodrum at Baseball Prospectus tried to figure out if there is a secret to winning one-run ballgames. ($)

Daylen Lile is one of my favorite players on the Washington Nationals, but he is really struggling right now. The 23 year old is 4 for his last 27, and has scuffled badly since his amazing series against the Reds. When you watch Lile hit, it is easy to diagnose his problem, he is swinging at everything.

Lile has been chasing more than he did last year all season long. However, this problem has really caused him trouble lately. Last season, Lile’s chase rate was 26.7%, which is slightly better than the league average. This year that chase rate is up 10 points to 36.7%, and it is causing him to struggle. 

One of the secrets of Daylen Lile’s success last year was that his swing decisions were very sharp. He was chasing less than the average hitter while swinging at pitches in the zone at a 75% clip, which is very high. Lile was using his premium hit tool to make contact on pitches in the zone while laying off the junk. Being aggressive in the zone and patient out of it is part of what makes guys like Freddie Freeman and Corey Seager such special hitters.

It is also one of the reasons I loved Lile so much entering the season. His rookie season was so impressive offensively. Lile hit .299 with an .845 OPS as a 22 year old. I love comparing him to Michael Brantley, and I still think he has that ability offensively. However, he needs to get back to making good swing decisions, or else that comparison will not stick.

I am being harsh on Lile right now, but he has not been awful either. Despite a heavy slump, his OPS is still above .700 and he is close to a league average hitter. Once he gets on one of his signature heaters, that OPS will be right back up towards .750. Lile has also been much better defensively this season, which helps his profile massively.

Lile’s batted ball data is pretty similar to last year as well. He is whiffing more, but part of that is due to the chase issues. Fundamentally, he is still the same guy other than the chase problem. We still see the flashes of excellence from him as well. That series in Cincinnati in front of his family was absolute fireworks. I thought that would kickstart his campaign, but instead, he has gone into a tailspin since then.

All of those home runs in that Reds series may have given Lile some of the wrong ideas as well. There are times at the plate where he is trying to do too much. You see that a lot with runners in scoring position, where Lile is a dreadful 9 for 64. When you talk to Lile and people in the building, you get the sense that he is a guy who has very high standards and can be hard on himself. Right now, that is leading to a lot of pressing and trying to break out of his slump with one swing.

Having high standards is a positive quality, but it can be a curse as well. In a 162 game season, you do not want to get too high or too low. Lately, it feels like Lile is chasing that magic from last September, both figuratively and literally. He just seems like a player who needs a day off right now.

Long term, I am still very bullish on Lile, especially with his defensive improvements. His fielding run value has gone from -10 to +3 in just one season. Lile’s elite speed always gave him the ability to be a good defender, but this year he has a much better idea of what he is doing in the outfield.

If he can combine this year’s defense with last year’s hitting, Lile can be a borderline star player. I truly believe that player is in there as well. He is just 23 years old and in his first full season as a big leaguer. Daylen Lile has a sweet swing, but right now he is just using it too much. 

With this coaching staff, I have faith that they can get Lile back to his best. That would make this lineup even more dangerous. Sophomore slumps are a real thing, and Daylen Lile is going through one right now. However, he will come out the other side of this better than ever once he recalibrates his swing decisions.