On a scale of 1 to 10, how likely do you think returning to San Antonio with the series tied for Game 5 is, and why do you feel that way?
Mark Barrington: There’s a fact in statistics that seems counterintuitive to people who aren’t into mathematics. In a large data set, low probability events aren’t all that uncommon. So there’s a chance. The Spurs came close to winning Game 2, but their inexperience got the better of them as they couldn’t close the deal. The Knicks have all the momentum, and if an eight-day layoff before Game 1 didn’t throw them off, the two-game layoff between Games 2 and 3 shouldn’t bother them. Three teams have lost the first two games at home in the finals:
The 1993 Suns, led by Charles Barkley, extended the Finals to 6 games by winning Game 3 on the road in a 3 OT thriller, and also won Game 5 over Michael Jordan’s Bulls before losing 99-98 in Game 6 at home, back in the days of the 2-3-2 format.
The 1995 Magic were swept by Hakeem Olajuwon and the Rockets, even with a young fella named Shaquille O’Neal on the roster.
The history of the 2026 Spurs finals run has yet to be written, but if any team can break the trend, it would be the Silver and Black, who are one of the most resilient teams in the history of the league. The Spurs have to make a statement in Game 3, and if they can win a triple overtime thriller like the Suns did way back in 1993, it could get interesting.
My head says that it’s extremely unlikely that the Spurs can win two on the road after losing the first two at home. It’s never been done before in the Finals. Let’s watch the Spurs try to make some history on Monday and Wednesday.
Bill Huan: I would be absolutely shocked if it’s tied 2-2 after going to MSG. Not that it’s impossible the Spurs come back in the series, but the way the Knicks are clicking and the environment in the Garden makes me quite confident that it’ll be 3-1 heading back to San Antonio for Game 5. With that said, this team has surprised me every step of the way this season and risen to every occasion, so if anyone can do it, it’s them.
Devon Birdsong: Having seen a young upstart Finals-caliber team come back from 0-2 against a Finals-caliber older veteran team back in 2012, I know it’s probably more possible than the naysayers are willing to admit. As long as they don’t look defeated (and they haven’t in interviews), I’d say it’s 4 out of 10 that they do it. That still doesn’t leave the odds in their favor, though. I think, mentally, they have to win game three in a landslide for their own confidence. If they do that, they’ll probably extend it to six or seven games. And I don’t know why, but I think they’re gonna extend it. The margins have been so thin. Surely they have some good fortune coming their way.
Jeje Gomez: If I have to assign a number to it, it would be a five, which I understand is insanely high against an elite opponent that matches up well against the Spurs. But I could see one of those dominant San Antonio performances coming in Game 3, a night in which they look like the unstoppable force they have resembled at times these playoffs. After that, maybe they can keep Game 4 close and be the ones who come out on top that time around. The Knicks have looked like the better team this series, and at this point, not even a sweep would surprise me, but what has characterized the Spurs this season is that they have a low floor but an insanely high ceiling, so they could pull off something crazy.
If you were Mitch Johnson, what adjustment would you make, and would it involve changing the starting lineup?
Barrington: I don’t think that the Spurs have made any major strategic mistakes so far. You could have played Harper more late in Game 1, but in Game 2 Fox’s play showed why Coach Johnson trusted De’Aaron as a finisher. The biggest adjustment has to be in the mentality of the players. They have to play with confidence and within the system. They have to not get down when a foul doesn’t get called or a bounce goes wrong. They have to find that balance between playing with abandon and being in control and trusting your teammates. I’ve seen them play that way for short stretches in the first two games, but winning in Madison Square Garden will require them to do it for 48 minutes. I think that Coach Johnson needs to get them ready to play mentally and keep playing the pressure defense that led them to a comeback in Game 2. The Spurs’ stars can’t wait until late in the game to get involved in the offense; they have to be sharp right from the opening tip. I don’t know if that’s going to be enough against a historic juggernaut like this year’s Knicks. We’ll find out this week.
Huan: It starts with seeing what happened during that fourth-quarter comeback in Game 2. For starters, I would change the lineup by inserting Harper in for Champagnie, and on defense, let Castle guard Brunson one-on-one without sending help. Then, have Wemby guard KAT and do not help off the shooters. Offensively, they need to take advantage of having three guards and continue attacking Brunson, and if that’s not working, then run more Fox-Wemby two-man game.
Birdsong: I really don’t think there have been as many glaring matchup issues as I thought there would be. I think it’s important that Mitch start to go with the hot hand out of the three guards, whatever combo that might be, by the fourth quarter. But, outside of giving Bryant some minutes on Towns, just to see, I think the right lineups have been used, and I think the narrow margins testify to that. Otherwise, I think it really comes down to scheme. I really do not want to see much five-out being used. They just haven’t figured out how to use it consistently unless Wemby is white hot from outside, and it makes it harder for Wemby to get position. The defense has been playing great, but the problem is that the offense is getting stagnant. Personally, I’d like to see them pick-and-roll the Knicks at every available opportunity with Wemby and one of the star guards. Regardless, they need to put as much offensive pressure on Towns and Brunson as possible. But in the end, I don’t care what they scheme as long as it works consistently.
Gomez: Part of me wants to overreact to the two losses and make sweeping changes, but the more I look at the roster, the more convinced I get that there are simply not many options in terms of personnel in the rotation. I know some people hope Harper starts over Fox, which I could be talked into, but it doesn’t seem like a massive shift, considering Harper plays a lot already. If Barnes had looked better, maybe starting him to add some size could make sense, but at this point, it feels he’s no longer the serviceable starter he once was. Ultimately, it feels like the Spurs just need to be smarter and they need one more player to contribute. My hope is that Keldon Johnson will be able to give them some good minutes of size and energy, mostly. In terms of Xs and Os, there are adjustments to be made, but I don’t see Mitch Johnson doing anything drastic. So I guess my adjustment would be to simply tell the team to play better.
A few Spurs have disappointed. Has there been anyone who has pleasantly surprised you with their play in the Finals?
Barrington: Harper has played very well, but I can’t say that I’m surprised by that, since my expectations for him were very high going into the series. I think I’d go with Vassell, who has elevated his game in the playoffs and always brings the intensity on both ends of the court, and has made some of the best defensive plays of the series for the Spurs. His excitement and love of the game show in how he plays, and there’s no way it doesn’t rub off on the other players.
Huan: I’d say Harper has stood out the most, although what he’s doing isn’t too surprising. He might honestly already be the Spurs’ second-best player, and they need to use him accordingly. I’ve been banging the drum on his minutes the entire run, and it’s still too low. He should be getting the Barnes/CB minutes and play over 35 a game. It’s not a coincidence that his +7 through two games leads the entire team.
Birdsong: I hate to come off as a killjoy, but honestly, almost no one has surprised me positively. If they had, I think the Spurs would have at least one win. The one exception being Fox’s offensive performance in the last game. But that’s really just because he’s been injured since the Minnesota series, and playing through it, so kind of a low bar to begin with. Still, if he can play like that for the rest of the series, the Spurs really might have a chance. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the offense has been more stagnant since Fox’s injury. They need him to be at some semblance of his best to have a real shot at this.
Gomez: Dylan Harper has been surprising me all season long, and not because I’ve failed to adjust my expectations. Every time he looks improved, I start looking for other things he should get better at, and he normally does. The shot hasn’t been falling from outside, but other than that, he’s been great. I can’t blame anyone for getting accustomed to a 20-year-old rookie looking like a star who is not afraid of the big stage, because Harper has done it all playoffs, but I’m still often in disbelief about how good he is.
