Worldwide Sports News

Jake Cronenworth has been a mainstay in the San Diego Padres organization since 2020 when he came to San Diego in a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays. Cronenworth has proven himself to be a versatile defender who can play multiple positions at a high level. His offense has been an area of inconsistency during his time with the Padres and he has been unable to recreate the success he had at the plate in 2021. Thomas Conroy of Gaslamp Ball looks at the value Cronenworth brings to the major league roster and how he can be a key to the team’s success in 2026.

Padres News:

• Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune wrote a story about Padres pitcher Yu Darvish walking away from baseball and his contract, but the report was deemed premature. Acee himself stated the wording used in the report could have been better. No matter when Darvish decides to call it a career, Cheri Bell of Gaslamp Ball says fans should appreciate Darvish for the player he has been with the Padres and the man he has shown himself to be.
• The Padres announced their 2026 promotional schedule and some of the hottest items each year are the bobbleheads. There are nine bobblehead giveaways this year with six regular season ticket items and three theme game ticket items. Gaslamp Ball asked readers which bobblehead would get them to Petco Park.
• Shaun O’Neill of Padres.com says that if Joe Musgrove can return to the pitcher he was from 2021 to 2024 following Tommy John surgery that kept him out all of 2025, he might be the most important player on the current Padres roster.
• 2025 was a breakout year for reliever Adrian Morejon. He established himself not only as the top left-hander in the Padres’ bullpen, but he might well be the best left-handed reliever in MLB. Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune looks at how Morejon can be more dominant in 2026 in his latest Padres roster review.

Baseball News:

• New Arizona Diamondbacks third baseman Nolan Arenado waived his no-trade clause to be shipped from the St. Louis Cardinals to Arizona this offseason. He had the opportunity to change teams in 2024 with a trade to the Houston Astros but blocked the deal with his no-trade clause. Arenado sheds light on what went into his decision making then and now.
• Aaron Judge will return to the cover of MLB The Show 26 after being the cover athlete in 2018. Judge is just the second player in the game’s history to make the cover more than once.
• Willi Castro was announced as the latest player to be added to the Puerto Rico World Baseball Classic Team.
• The trade deadline for the 2026 MLB season has been set for Aug. 3 according to MLB Trade Rumors.

In the dead of winter, when I’m not refreshing MLB Trade Rumors or yelling at Siri to ask if my Jeff Passan Twitter alerts are broken, I like to look at player projections on Fangraphs. Despite the fact that they are a complete fantasy land, they provide a good baseline for our expectations for the upcoming season. Drawing from past performances of players, the various systems weigh more heavily towards the most recent seasons, while also using historical data of career trends of previous players with similar age, experience, and skill level.

Today, we’re kicking off a series that digs into 2026 projections by taking a look at what they say about the Red Sox starting staff. I looked at three systems:

• Steamer: Created and maintained by Jared Cross, these are always the first projections released, usually not long after the World Series wraps up. They’ve been around for a long time and are widely considered to be among the best systems for projections. 
• The BAT: Derek Carty’s projection system, which is very popular in fantasy baseball and DFS circles.
• OOPSY: Created by Jordan Rosenblum over the last couple of years. While I cannot approve of the name of this system, Jordan and I wrote together at a fantasy baseball site called The Dynasty Guru for several years, and he was the first person to try to convince me to trust projection models, so I’m going to give him a pass on the name. 

This comes with the obvious caveat that it still feels likely that there is still a trade to come. Moreever, with so many starting candidates, it’s hard to predict innings totals, so looking at the rate stats is probably a more worthwhile task than playing time at this point. 

1. Garrett Crochet

These may not look like the dominant numbers that you’re expecting from Garrett Crochet in 2026, but it’s important to remember that projection systems rely on “regression,” and try to predict 50th percentile outcomes. If you sort any of these three projection models by ERA, the list goes: Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes, Garrett Crochet, (big gap), everyone else. Skubal’s projection of 2.63 on OOPSY is the best on any list, even though it’s very likely that the eventual ERA league leader will beat that number. The only pitchers, including relievers, who best Crochet in K-BB% are Skubal, Mason Miller, and Edwin Diaz. Expectations are high and there’s no reason to think that Crochet can’t deliver again, if healthy. 

2. Ranger Suarez

The hope for Suarez is that he will keep his walk rate closer to the past two seasons (6.2%) than in his first six seasons (8.4%, which was still a solid number) as the projections split the difference on that walk percentage. OOPSY is most bearish on the Suarez projection, adding three more home runs allowed than the others. With a 3.38 career ERA, we would hope for an output close to that, but The BAT’s projection of 3.78 is actually 12th-best among AL starting pitchers, and Steamer’s projection of 3.73 is 16th in the AL. That would be the “number two starter” outcome that we were looking for. 

3. Sonny Gray

Slightly ahead of Suarez on Steamer’s list is Sonny Gray, whose 3.68 ERA projection would be 14th in the AL and would round out a strong top three in Boston’s rotation. Those top three pitchers can match up with any team in the American League in a short playoff series, although Seattle’s rotation one-through-five likely has an edge. Gray has a 1.20 WHIP over 13 career seasons, and much like Suarez, his walk rate over the past two seasons (5.4% combined) has been the best of his career.

4. Brayan Bello

Bello’s career K-BB rate of 11.5% is closer to Steamer and OOPSY, where The BAT seems to think that his paltry rate of 9.3% in 2025 is a sign of what’s to come. Bello has started 28+ games in all three of his full seasons in the big leagues, and there is something to be said for that. With a .234 batting average allowed, thanks to a .268 BABIP in 2025, Bello needs to have a strong infield defense behind him to repeat a 3.35 ERA output. Projections expect closer to a .260 BA allowed in 2026, which would bring his ERA back up into the mid-4’s, closer to his xFIP and xERA a year ago. 

The #5 (through #10) Candidates:

A little conditional formatting never hurt anybody. 

When Steamer was released back in November, one of the most eye-opening projections in all of baseball was Connelly Early’s. Perhaps it’s the five pitches that all had a 20% Whiff Rate or better in his four regular-season starts a year ago. There are very few rookies who pop in projections before they’ve had much of a chance to show it on the field. Moreover, The BAT is notoriously harsh on rookie projections, with the great Derek Carty needing to fight off the Twitter prospect trolls on a weekly basis. 

Early’s 16% K-BB, and near-3.50 ERA in both projections, is startling. Of course, thanks to the logjam of pitchers on this team, he’s projected for only 50-60 innings at the moment. That being said, there are only six starting pitchers on The BAT, and seven starting pitchers on Steamer who are projected to have a better ERA than Connelly Early in the American League. I don’t know what to make of this, but as Rick James once said, “Now, THAT is ABSURD.”

OOPSY is more partial to the other starting pitcher who made his debut in the final month of last season, Payton Tolle. Its projected 27.2 K% for Tolle is bested in the American League by only Skubal, Crochet, Cole Ragans, Trey Yesavage, Dylan Cease, and Joe Boyle (arguably a Quad-A guy) among starting pitchers. The BAT didn’t have time for Payton Tolle, apparently, nor Kutter Crawford. 

Johan Oviedo was enough of an attraction for Craig Breslow to move Jhostynxon Garcia, even though Oviedo has just two years of control left. For that reason, I wouldn’t be surprised if Oviedo made more starts for the Red Sox in 2026 than both Early and Tolle, and he does have a higher projected innings total than the rest of the bunch. However, the projections are fairly low on Oviedo, with the highest ERA and highest walk rate across all of the candidates. 

Both Kutter Crawford and Kyle Harrison have a decent output on Steamer. Crawford’s 17.6 K-BB% is very impressive, and not all that shocking for someone with a 16.6 career rate, which topped out at 18.8 in 2023. Harrison’s 3.91 ERA with a 16.6% K-BB projection would be more than serviceable. The other systems are not as kind to either of them. 

Lastly, there’s Patrick Sandoval. It should be mentioned daily that Sandoval was signed by the Red Sox to an $18.25 million contract over “two years”. You should mention it daily in your work meetings, if necessary, regardless of your line of work. Would the front office acknowledge that the team has nine better starting pitchers this season and take the L, selling Sandoval for half of his salary to help with payroll flexibility this year? Regardless, Sandoval has not pitched well since 2022 and hasn’t thrown a pitch in a game since early 2024, so it’s not surprising to see the projections be as low as they are on him, even though he is only 29 years old. The WHIP projections are ugly, but to be fair, OOPSY and Steamer both have Sandoval a shade under 4 in the ERA column. 

The last time that I did this exercise was heading into the 2024 season. After reviewing the hitters in Part One, my concluding sentence was, “Next week, we’ll take a look at the pitching projections and then all collectively vomit into a bucket.” Amazing what a difference two years makes. 

In Part Two we’ll examine the Red Sox lineup. And with the “ZIPS” projections coming out this week, there’s another robot we can be add to the mix!

Happy Wednesday, everyone! It’s a day that ends in Y, which means we’ve got some Tarik Skubal trade speculation to talk about, though all signs seem to point to Skubal sticking around through at least the start of the year, if not right up to his free agency. Still, we love an offseason rumor, so we’re sharing it with you.

We also take a look at some World Baseball Classic drama (Carlos Correa will miss it, Bo Bichette has backed out of Team Brazil), and Aaron Judge is a repeat cover star.

Let’s just get right into the highlights of the day.

Detroit Tigers News

• Kevin McGonigle ranks number two on ESPN’s top 100 prospects list, where Kiley McDaniel sums him up as, “[An] incredible hitter with real baserunning/defensive value.”
• Jim Bowden still thinks there’s a chance Tarik Skubal could be traded before Opening Day, saying:

Detroit would still like to sign him to a long-term contract but it’s difficult to see that happening with how far apart both sides are on a deal. The Tigers have listened to trade offers and at least talked about the “ballpark” parameters it would take to trade him. According to club sources, the asking price is so significant that it is unlikely a trade happens unless Detroit lowers its sights significantly.

So, where do the Tigers go from here? They could continue to try to extend him, keeping in mind what this year’s free-agent class has done to the market. If Kyle Tucker is worth $60 million per year, what would Skubal get on a comparable four-year deal? $70 million per year?

I’ve also been told by some rival executives that they think it makes more sense to wait until Skubal is a free agent rather than emptying their farm system for just one year of his services. At this point, Detroit could trade him now, or wait until the trade deadline when the return would be less, or do what the Angels did with Shohei Ohtani and wait until he leaves in free agency and get just draft pick compensation for him.

• It’s rumor mill season!!

AL Central News

• The Guardians have locked down the face of their franchise and Jose Ramirez will be in Cleveland for the long haul.
• The White Sox have signed Seranthony Dominguez.
• The Twins have avoided arbitration with Joe Ryan, coming to terms on a deal.

MLB News

• Rick Rizzs, the long-time voice of the Mariners, has announced his retirement following the 2026 season.
• Carlos Correa won’t be participating in the World Baseball Classic after he failed to receive insurance. ($)
• Is this the most baseball town in America?
• The Mets are having an incredible offseason.
• Jay Jaffe tries to predict the next five years of Hall of Fame elections.
• Some players who could be poised to become breakout stars in 2026.
• Which teams won the offseason?
• What would a team made entirely of underrated players look like?
• Could Max Scherzer potentially wait until after Opening Day to sign with a new club?
• The nine best signings of the offseason.
• Did Yu Darvish announce his retirement? No, but if you’re confused, you’re not alone.
• Mookie Betts will be coaching the Celebrity All-Star Game.
• A bit disappointing for Team Brazil.

• Well this isn’t ideal…

• Aaron Judge can add “repeat cover star” to his growing resume. Funny, though, because just one day before this, they announced there would be no cover star.

• Nolan Arenado is officially on Team Puerto Rico.

With spring training only a few weeks away, it’s possible that the Orioles are done adding to the roster. Framber Valdez remains available, and the Birds could strike for a number of players at any point, but the team could also decide to stand pat.

The majority of free agents have already found new homes. The front office made significant additions by signing Pete Alonso, acquiring Shane Baz, inking Ryan Helsley, bringing back Zach Eflin, and trading for Taylor Ward.

On paper, this roster looks far more competitive than the team that finished at the bottom of the AL East in 2025. But the Orioles didn’t bring in a $155 million first baseman just to not finish last. This team wants a division crown and a real run at the World Series. Do they have the talent for that?

The lineup looks set aside from a potential hole in center field. On the other hand, you can never have enough pitching. Baz will immediately join Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish in the rotation. Eflin figures to join the bunch when healthy, and Dean Kremer remains a dependable—yet unspectacular—arm. Tyler Wells has the talent to make the rotation if healthy, while guys like Cade Povich and Brandon Young hope to receive another chance.

Helsley will anchor the bullpen with Félix Bautista set to miss at least the first half. The Birds brought back Andrew Kittredge, and Keegan Akin will return as a sold left-handed option. After that, the picture gets slightly less clear.

There’s room for improvement in both units, and the Orioles should leave no stone unturned when it comes to adding pitchers. With that being said, which group needs more help?

The case for the rotation

The Orioles went into the offseason with a clear need at the top of the rotation, and they have yet to address that need. The team views Baz as a player that could fill that role down the road, but nobody should expect the 26-year-old to pitch like an ace this season. Trevor Rogers looked like a Cy Young pitcher last year over 18 starts, but he missed out on the award because he only made 18 starts. Kyle Bradish finished fourth in Cy Young voting back in 2023, but he has only 14 starts over the least two seasons.

The Birds have a rotation that can get them to the playoffs, but can this staff help them advance? Baltimore watched Dylan Cease go off the board early, but a guy like Valdez can take the ball in Game 1. Zac Gallen isn’t a true ace, but his presence could prevent a guy like Kremer from starting the third or fourth game of a playoff series.

In the same vein, adding a top arm would allow a talented pitcher to fall to the bullpen. Wells would bring credibility to a bunch lacking in experience. Povich, Young, and Chayce McDermott all profile as guys that could thrive in shorter stints. If the Birds fail to add, they’ll only be a few injuries from depending on these guys every fifth day.

The case for the bullpen

The current rotation features a pretty clear pecking order. Bradish and Rogers stand a level above the rest. Eflin and Baz fit into the middle of the rotation with the potential to over perform. Kremer and Wells are known commodities, and the other guys have some potential.

The bullpen hierarchy is less clear. Helsley is the closer until Bautista comes back. Kittredge and Akin can be trusted in high-leverage situations. Then what?

Kade Strowd posted a 1.71 ERA over 25 games last season, but the 28-year-old still carries rookie status. Rico Garcia out performed his career 5.27 ERA last season, but the 32-year-old hardly qualifies as a sure thing. The same can be said for Colin Selby, Grant Wolfram, and Yaramil Hiraldo.

The Birds would love to see Yennier Cano get back on track after he posted a 5.12 ERA last season. Anthony Nunez will likely make his major league debut after arriving in the Cedric Mullins deal last July. Dietrich Enns and Albert Suárez are both talented swingmen that could turn into a pumpkin at any point.

The case against the rotation

The Orioles added two legitimate starters in Eflin and Baz. Eflin literally took the ball on Opening Day last season, and new skipper Craig Albernaz recently described Baz to the Baltimore Banner podcast as someone with “all the potential in the world to be an ace and to go out there and be in the conversation for a Cy Young” down the road.

While looking to the future, it’s crucial to think about the money an aging Valdez or Gallen would make in their mid 30s. Baltimore paid for the best years of Alonso while taking on some risk for the later years. Can they afford to do the same with a starting pitcher?

Veterans like Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer wouldn’t require multi-year deals, but it’s fair to wonder if they actually represent an improvement over the five guys in the rotation at this point in their career

The case against the bullpen

It’s not uncommon for competitive teams to piece together an unheralded bullpen. Relievers are volatile from year to year, and it’s never a guarantee that a free agent signing will meet expectations. Helsley, Kittredge and Akin should blend nicely with the raw talent from guys like Strowd and Nunez, and a bounceback from Cano is still in the cards.

While guys like Valdez and Gallen remain available, there are very few relievers still on the open market. A reunion with Danny Coulombe would play, and reclamation projects like Liam Hendriks are still a possibility.

Any significant addition would likely come via trade. Baltimore was linked to Jojo Romero last month, and the Rockies have multiple relievers that could be available for the right price. But if a trade is required, the Orioles might prefer to wait and see who is hot at the trade deadline.

The Phillies have announced Truck Day— and as sure as Punxsutawney Phil not seeing his shadow, that means spring is coming. For those who don’t know, Truck Day involves the Philadelphia Phaithful seeing off the equipment trucks, laden with bat, ball, and glove, as they begin their long, happy journey to Clearwater. There’s photo opportunities and the chance to chat with your fellow fans. This year, Truck Day is February 3rd.

Just as the Phillies mark the first portent of spring with Truck Day, each baseball fan marks their own path to warmer weather with a tradition. Perhaps it’s giving that favorite jersey a wash, or giving that favorite game a watch. Maybe it’s playing out a simulated season in a video game, or sending a few good natured jabs to that Braves fan in the family. Maybe your personal Truck Day is, well, going to Truck Day. It’s for the fans, after all.

Today’s question is: What’s your personal Truck Day?

It often is hard to separate analysis and fandom. If you ask most Astros fan to name the best player in franchise history, most of them will name Jose Altuve. It makes perfect sense. He has an MVP award like Jeff Bagwell. Unlike Bagwell, he has two rings and perhaps one of the best postseason resumes in baseball history. He certainly has a better postseason resume than anyone in Astros history.

He isn’t there yet, but he seems to be on pace to eclipse many of Craig Biggio’s records for career numbers. Assuming an uninterrupted schedule (we will get to more on that later), he has a decent chance of getting to 3000 hits. Naturally, he will see a bump in all of the other relevant numbers as well. Nostalgia and positive vibes don’t go well with cold, hard analysis. We have to find a way to separate our own personal feelings about a player with the numbers.

The Hall of Fame Index aims to do that. It was never meant to rank order players. It is not necessarily a precise instrument. The idea is to put players into groups of players they are similar to. When a player is similar to Hall of Famers then he is likely a Hall of Famer. If he similar to guys that aren’t quite there then he is also likely not quite there. The index includes career value and peak value. Peak value is the total of the top ten WAR seasons for the player.

The Hall of Fame Index

The good news for Altuve is that three of these four players are Hall of Famers. The other irony is that all of those Hall of Famers missed seasons serving their country in World War II. Obviously, it had a greater impact on some of them than others. Altuve likely will have more to do with them then simple numbers. 2020 was a wash due to Covid. He also had the worst numbers of his career. It was hardly a coincidence. If you gave him a full complement of at bats then it is much more likely that he would be on his way to 3000 hits.

It hasn’t happened yet, but all indications are that there will be a major work stoppage in 2027. Obviously, it is just guess work as to how much time he will miss. The index does a lot of things, but it does not allow for situations like this or the color barrier for African American players. This is just one of many reasons why we move onto our other tests. Based on career norms and recent trends, Altuve is not likely to change his place in the second base pecking order this season, but the other numbers will change.

Offensive Numbers

We’ve talked about these numbers in previous articles, but there is some added context that needs to be added. OPS+ and offensive winning percentage are tied to the league norms. The other two metrics are not. In case anyone is coming in for the first time, real offensive value (ROV) is the midpoint between batting average and secondary average. Secondary average is calculated by adding total bases, walks, stolen bases, and hit by pitches and subtracting hits. That sum is divided by at bats.

Offensive winning percentage assumes that a team has nine hitters like that hitter and an average pitching staff. From there, the numbers speak for themselves. If a 100 win baseball team is a championship level team then a .600 offensive winning percentage is pretty darn good. Finally, we get bases per out. The league average tends to range between .650 and .700 depending on the era.

What we should note is that three of these players played during the Live Ball Era of the 1930s and 1940s. That obviously was a more robust offensive era than Randolph or Altuve played in. That can explain the differences between offensive winning percentage, OPS+, and the other two metrics. Unfortunately, Altuve is at the part of his career where he is likely to detract from these numbers and not add to them. That is part of the push and pull factors all players get to late in their careers.

Fielding Numbers

This is the biggest reason why I use a second source for WAR and why the index is superior to JAWS. Different sources look at fielding value differently. FWAR does not use defensive runs saved. DRS is the current basis behind Rfield. FWAR uses other metrics (notably Statcast’s Outs Above Average) as a part of its formula. OAA is much more kind to Altuve than DRS.

If we are to believe Rfield then Altuve will likely go down as the least valuable fielding second baseman in the Hall of Fame. He will surpass fellow former Astro Craig Biggio with those numbers. This is yet another push and pull factor that happens when players continue to play. Pound for pound, Gordon might be the best fielding second baseman in history. He did not reach the numbers that Bill Mazeroski did, but he only had 11 seasons. If you give him those two seasons he lost serving his country and another here or there it could have turned out differently.

Total Runs

Thus. we get to major push factor on continuing to play. With each passing season, Altuve will continue to build on these numbers. Runs created, Rfield, and Rbaser are simple enough. Rpos is a positional adjustment based on the fielding and hitting difficulty relative to the rest of the positions. Altuve’s numbers are obviously lower because they include some time in left field. That might or might not continue to be the case moving forward.

If a typical regular has between 70 and 90 total runs a season, then we can foresee Altuve surpassing all of these players with three more seasons. Obviously, those numbers will be included with the requisite counting numbers everyone is familiar with. That would include perhaps getting to 300 home runs, 1200 runs and RBI, and well over 2500 hits. As it stands, he already has created more runs than all of these players.

Our last test looks at factors related to peak value. How the players accumulated their value matters. Fans are more captivated by greatness even if it is short-lived. In the books I looked at the MVP test. This is a variation of it. We are looking at 5 WAR, 4 WAR, and 3 WAR seasons. Players with five or more WAR tend to be among the best three or four at their position in baseball. Four WAR players are likely borderline all-star performers. Three WAR seasons are solid above average performers. Additionally, we will note if a player led the league in WAR.

Dominance

Based on these numbers, Herman and Randolph end up looking pretty similar. Altuve’s 2017 season will end up being a feather in his cap. He won the MVP that season and based on the BWAR score, that honor was deserved. This isn’t to say that a player has to be an MVP winner to get into the Hall of Fame, but it certainly does help when everything else was equal.

The numbers also explain why Gordon deserved the love he got from the Veterans Committee. I hate to assume facts not in evidence, but if he had not taken off two seasons serving his country he likely would have been considerably higher up the index food chain. He had come off of two six win seasons and another ten BWAR and FWAR would have boosted both his career and peak value.

Obviously, Altuve can still add to his overall career value, but he is unlikely to get to three WAR again if recent seasons are any indication. Sure, he could have a rebound season or two, but most players in his situation start to see the numbers taper off. Still, if we consider Joe Gordon, Billy Herman, and Bobby Doerr to be credible Hall of Famers then Altuve likely qualifies as one already. That doesn’t even include his ample postseason production.