I already know the reaction of the vast majority of fans reading this headline, which will produce some version of “Wait what?” I have legitimately not seen his name thrown out as a possible Cardinals target anywhere, and it’s understandable because he is technically a shortstop. In fact, there’s a strong possibility the only thing you really know about JP Crawford is that he was a l0ng-time Mariners shortstop. Probably didn’t even know he was a free agent, because why would you even bother to pay attention to the free agent shortstops.
You might notice that I said he was technically a shortstop. By virtue of standing at short when playing defense. Functionally speaking he deserves to no longer be called a shortstop, because is a very bad defensive shortstop. He has been worth -9 OAA or worse in four of the five last seasons and he’s been worth -25 OAA the past two seasons combined. This is despite the fact that he actually played 254 innings at 3B last year and only 720 innings at short. He’s been a bad shortstop for a while and this season, his numbers suggested he was on par with Jose Martinez in the outfield.
This is admittedly an extremely strange way to make the case for the Cardinals to sign someone, but I want to emphasize there is no team in baseball that will – or at least should – sign up for JP Crawford’s services with the intention of putting him at SS. Everyone is aware he is a bad defender. Crawford has to know that his numbers rate very poorly. He is a beloved Mariner and they were forced to put him at 3B. Colt Emerson got called up and at first Emerson was at 3B and Crawford was at SS, but well, by June, the positions switched. Emerson ended up getting hurt, so Crawford finished the year at SS, but hopefully message received.
He should and probably will be viewed as a free agent 3B and in that respect, he is a lot more appealing. He hasn’t played at 3B very long, but he now has 254 innings of experience and though it is an extremely small sample size, he rated as dead average. Now Crawford does have a weaker arm – it is 20th percentile according to Statcast. But it’s honestly not a huge difference between him and Thomas Saggese or Blaze Jordan. He threw it 80.2 mph on average, Saggese threw it 82 mph, and Blaze threw it 82.8. All were clearly below average arms. I don’t think it is a dealbreaker to have a weaker arm at 3B.
Crawford however is an above average hitter. He has a career 106 wRC+, which is pretty close to his 105 wRC+ on the 2026 season, which was achieved with a .253 BABIP and a .319 xwOBA compared to a .312 actual wOBA. His xwOBA and wOBA are nearly identical for his career. I would ordinarily not comment on a 7 point difference, but it sounds more appealing to sign a 110 wRC+ hitter than a 105 wRC+ hitter and… again low BABIP and same xwOBA as wOBA for career. There’s reasons to believe he was unlucky.
He doesn’t have quite as wide of a splits as I would hope, which is both a positive and a negative. It’s a negative because if he was worse against LHP, it’d be easier to maximize his production (and honestly easier selling point to platoon). It’s a positive because well it is better if he’s not unplayable against LHP. With his defense, he certainly was unplayable against LHP at SS, so I suppose it depends on how good his defense is at 3B, but a 98 career wRC+ against LHP is perfectly fine. He was actually better against LHP last year, which again I’d prefer to not be the case to convince him to platoon.
Which yes, that would be my hope with signing JP Crawford. The Cardinals have two right-handed options for 3B next season, neither of which were any good against the same-handed pitcher last season. Thomas Saggese had a 66 wRC+ (and 73 wRC+ career) and Blaze Jordan had a 51 wRC+ against RHP. I don’t hate the idea of those two getting a bunch of reps next year to see what they have, but for 75% of games, you at least appear to have one really bad hitter locked into your lineup with getting someone who can hit right-handed pitchers for 3B.
I also will add I think those two will still play plenty if you sign JP Crawford. There is of course all the games where they will play against a LHP, and they will come into many games when a left-handed reliever comes into the game. They will still start some games against RHP I’m sure – just the way a baseball season ends up going, someone will have injuries. But that’s kind of what those two should be against RHP – injury insurance, not the plan.
Another appealing aspect of Crawford – maybe the most appealing aside from his competence with the bat – I think he might have to sign a one-year deal. I don’t think he will be high in-demand from the market. He’s in no man’s land right now – a shortstop all his life, but nobody who will play him there – but a 3B without an arm and with not a whole lot of power (of course Safeco is terrible for power) is kind of difficult selling point. I know, I’m simultaneously making a case to not get him.
But that’s the thing in my mind. The Cardinals are trying to achieve a very delicate balance. I don’t think they are interested in a long-term solution at 3B, because maybe Rainiel Rodriguez will have to go there, maybe Jesus Baez looks like he should be called up in June. I could see them being uncomfortable with having literally no potential for any infielder to crack the starting lineup for a few years without an injury or a trade. At the same time, they want to improve at 3B for 2027 specifically, and I don’t think they really believe that Jordan or Saggese are future starting 3Bs. It’s a pretty big gamble that the Cardinals only improve at 3B because they literally could not get worse instead of improving to average or better.
Maybe Crawford is that delicate balance. A player you might be able to get for one year, that is an above average hitter, and yes a question mark on defense, but the early returns are positive. It could go really well. If he’s only a little bit below average at 3B and maintains his offensive consistency, he will be an above average player. He has been an above average player for most of his career at SS. He was 2.8 fWAR in 2025, so it isn’t ancient history either. He will be playing in his age 32 season, which for a one-year commitment isn’t super risky. If things go poorly, it’s not that hard to cut him. Hypothetically anyway. I don’t know what his market will be.
He will usually give you a good at-bat. He walks at a high rate and he doesn’t strike out all that much. He’s already used to playing in a park that doesn’t allow homers, I don’t think he will be too harmed by playing at Busch. He did hit 14 homers last year and he’s settled into a 10+ homer guy, so there is a little power, I don’t want to act like he’s David Eckstein. But power is not his strong point.
I know this is a boring signing. If you want to improve at 3B, this will not exactly excite people. I’m trying to be realistic. I don’t think the Cardinals will go international, and there’s not many great options. Crawford could be the boring, but effective signing to vastly improve 3B, admittedly because of how low the bar is, but still. He’s left-handed and a career 110 wRC+ hitter against RHP. I think it fits.
A not small caveat to all this is…. it is contingent on quite a few things to happen. Crawford has to actually be available for a one-year-deal, that there isn’t another team willing to give him more opportunities at SS, that there isn’t another opportunity for him to play 2B or 3B full-time instead of as a platoon option, and that the Cardinals believe Crawford could be fine at 3B defensively. It would not shock me if someone gives him two years, it would not shock me if another team would play him full-time instead of planning to platoon him, and it would not shock me if the Cardinals were not high on his defense at 3B. It would shock me if another team kept him at SS, he only lasted as long as he did at SS because he was the longest tenured Mariner who fans loved.
So yes, the chips have to fall right for this to work. I can think of a bunch of reasons for why this won’t happen. But the right version of this could work well for the Cardinals. They can delay the 3B question for another year while not sacrificing the on-field product. It is boring. I can’t imagine a lot of fans would be excited about this move.
But when the Mariners had the tribute for him on the last game of the season, Crawford to 3B occurred to me and it apparently occurred to nobody else, and I just want to throw this idea into the world more than anything. See what people think. He is not being treated as an option and he is an option. He is the not necessarily exciting option, but I wouldn’t mind seeing a solid hitter in the lineup against RHP next season. I don’t know I really want to believe in the best case scenario of this.
