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Baseball history isn’t predictive so much as it’s instructive. Even if batters aren’t hitting at the same rate as decades before, we can still know that hitters who live in the .190-.220 range are probably not very good at that skill. Pitchers with a 5.00 ERA are not good pitchers. And the same can be said about wins and losses, especially the Giants’ few wins and many losses.

If a team doesn’t win very many games, that team isn’t very good. And if a team loses a lot of games early on, the chances of them recovering to have at least a winning season — to say nothing of sneaking into the postseason — are slim. There’s history and then there’s just the game being the game and the Giants have demonstrated here in the early season that they are a bad team that’s probably going to be bad by season’s end.

Now, you might protest with this simple fact: there are still 128 games to go! A lot of baseball left! Anything can happen! Sure, sure. But that adage is the religious devotion angle of fandom. It’s a prayer. The eye test and the win-loss record are actually meaningful in this case because the results have been extreme. But you don’t need to look at advanced metrics or underlying metrics or even triple slash lines. The win-loss record is comprehensive.

In MLB history, 167 teams have started as season 13-21. Just 18 times (10.8%) has that team gone on to have a winning record. Five of those instances have come this century:

• 2016 Astros, 84-78
• 2015 Cleveland, 81-80
• 2013 Dodgers, 92-70 (Division Champs)
• 2007 Blue Jays, 83-79
• 2001 White Sox, 83-79

Here are all the other years when it’s happened: 1993, 1984, 1980, 1964, 1963, 1958, 1950, 1948, 1939, 1925, 1917, 1916, 1899. If you insist on being the optimism, one might be able to lob a “Hey, that just means some team here in the 2020s is due!” And maybe this kooky fan might be on to something. Still, that’s a wish and a prayer and a hope for a team basically winning the lottery.

This is only the third time in franchise history that the Giants have started 13-21. The first time it happened was in 1950, which is one of the years listed above. Those 1950 Giants, led by Eddie Stanky, Al Dark, Hank Thompson, Monte Irvin, Larry Jansen, and Sal Maglie were actually 10-20 through their first 30, then went 76-48 the rest of the way which included 9-,7-,6-, and 5-game winning streaks. That 9-game winning streak was shortly after the All-Star break and was broken up by a single loss that then led into a 6-game winning streak; so, they had a run where they won 15 of 16 on top of the other long winning streaks. The 2026 Giants will need results very similar to that, even if the 1950 team wound up in 3rd place for all that winning. 84-86 wins might be enough to back in as the third Wild Card. By the way, the other Giants team to start 13-21 was the 1984 team, which wound up 66-96.

But 13-21 is just one record tested against history. Is it the case that there are actually more examples of success if we go in either direction by a single loss? You know, could do some Hollywood accounting and say that 13-21 is basically the same thing as 14-20 and find a rich vein of fun historical turnarounds to compare the Giants to instead? Let’s be as desperate as Buster Posey and Zack Minasian and try it.

210 times have teams started 14-20 in MLB history. 40 (19%) have wound up .500 or better. There are a lot of recent examples in this bunch:

• 2024 Diamondbacks. 89-73 (missed Wild Card due to tiebreaker with Atlanta)
• 2023 Reds, 82-80
• 2022 Orioles, 83-79
• 2019 Nationals, 93-69 (World Champions)
• 2016 Yankees, 84-78 (this was the year they were deadline sellers)
• 2014 Pirates, 88-74 (NL Wild Card) — ahem
• 2011 Brewers, 96-66 (Division Champs)
• 2010 White Sox, 88-74 (the Yankees won 95 games that year to be the AL Wild Card)
• 2009 Rockies, 92-70 (Wild Card)
• 2007 Rockies, 90-73 (NL Pennant)
• 2006 Angels, 89-73 (the Tigers won 95 games that year to be the AL Wild Card)
• 2005 A’s, 88-74 (the Red Sox won 95 games that year to be the AL Wild Card)
• 2002 Astros, 84-78
• 2001 Mets, 82-80

So, it’s this record (and probably better) that has stuck in the stubbornly optimistic fan’s mind all these years. Yes, there is a degree to which the bad can be overcome. In Giants history, four teams have started 14-20, but only one of them wound up with a winning record: the 1990 Giants ended the season 85-77 after a 14-20 start. On the other hand, the 100-loss 1985 team started with this record and were 48-80 the rest of the way.

Hmm, maybe a worse record has some secret history of success hidden away in there aching to be compared to? Let’s take a look at 12-22 teams. That’s happened 110 times. This is the Mets record right now, by the way.

Just 7 times (6.4%) has that terrible start turned into a winning record by season’s end. The 2005 Astros (89-73) won the National League pennant before running into Scott Podsednik and the White Sox in the World Series. The 1989 Blue Jays (89-73) won the AL East, the 2024 Astros (88-73) won the AL West, and the 1974 Pirates (88-74) won the NL Central. The rest: 1996 Red Sox (85-77), 1988 Padres (83-78), and 1986 Reds (86-76).

Just 4 times in 70 instances (5.7%) has a team started 11-23 and ended up with a winning record. The 1914 Boston Braves won the World Series after finishing 94-59. The most recent occurrence was in 1973, when the Cardinals finished 81-81. The 1965 Pirates are the only team to start 10 and 24 and finish with a winning record (90-72). No team lost 25 of their first 34 and came out of the season with more wins than losses.

Okay, but what about that other adage? The one that says you should take the first 40 games to evaluate the team you have, then the next 40 to acquire the players you need and then the next 40 games to make a run and the final 40 games to either prepare for the postseason or evaluate for next year? In that scenario, this would be the deciding week that could determine the fate of the 2026 Giants or at least how they might approach the trade deadline… right? Sure, they could sweep and wind up 19-21 and they’d undeniably be right back in the race, but isn’t 4-2 more realistic as the absolute limit of what’s possible with this team at the moment? In that case, they’re 17-23. What does history say about that?

39 out of 202 (19.3%) instances of 17-23 have been the basis for winning records. The last time it happened was in 2022, when the Mariners were a Wild Card with a 90-72 record. Before that, it was 2015, when the Rangers won the AL West with an 88-74 record. Those 2014 Pirates pop up here again, as do the 2013 Dodgers. The 2011 Dbacks won the NL West at 94-68 after a 17-23 start. The 2007 Rockies had this same record, too.

So, if you’re trying to be one of those “recover from a bad start teams” but you can’t be of the 14-20 variety, here’s the 17-23 pathway. To get there, the Giants will need to win this homestand. Plausible, but at the same time, hard to imagine. And, in the history of the franchise, a bad omen. The Farhan Zaidi era is lousy with 17-23s: 2019 (which ended 77-85), 2023 (80-82), 2024 (79-83). This was their specific brand of underperformance. In team history, only the 1982 team turned it around after a 17-23 start. They wound up 87-75. The three other instances not yet mentioned: 1977 (75-87), 1980 (75-86), and 2008 (72-90).

Look, it’s no fun knowing that the season is “over” at the beginning of May, but that’s where we Giants fans find ourselves here. We’re rooting for a team that is not dissimilar from the teams we’ve seen for around the past decade. Maybe some of the details are different, but the story is still the same. But maybe you find this hard to believe or simply don’t want to believe it. I have not really insisted that you change your mind here. I didn’t even research this post thinking I was going to hunt for data that supported only my position. I had an open mind and, admittedly, a little bit of hope because it’s still early in the season. And yet, there are facts to face: the history of the game tells us the Giants are cooked, washed, chopped, squashed, negated, irrelevant, and/or doomed.

Bummer.

The Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs are slated to go toe to toe for the first time in 2026 on Monday night in Wrigley Field, and as is so often the case during spring games there is inclement weather in the forecast.

As a result, the originally scheduled start time has been bumped up by half an hour. The game was originally scheduled to have first pitch chucked at 6:40 PM CT (7:40 PM ET), and now that’s set for 6:10 PM CT (7:10 PM ET). MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon helped relay the news.

Bleed Cubbie Blue pointed out that if you have tickets in the MLB Ballpark app, the start time has been automatically updated.

Though the Reds have yet to announce the official roster move, Chase Petty is listed as tonight’s starter at Reds.com opposite Edward Cabrera of the Cubs. It will be Petty’s 2026 MLB debut when he is officially recalled, with hopes that the struggles he went through as just a 22 year old at the big league level last season have been put in the rearview mirror.

No surprise here, as the Detroit Tigers’ rookie phenom was a candidate for league MVP in March and April. He is second place to Aaron Judge in the American League in Baseball Reference’s rWAR with 2.1 wins above replacement and currently tracking toward a potential 9 WAR season in his major league debut. He’s made it look so easy that we’re already acclimated to quiet games where he goes 1 for 3 with an RBI and a walk as just his baseline day at the park. The Reds’ Sal Stewart is a heck of a young hitter as well, and he took home the award in the National League.

McGonigle is currently hitting .315/.407/.477 for a 149 wRC+ and unlike just about all the names above him on various offensive leaderboards, he’s playing a sound shortstop day in and day out rather than bat first positions like corner outfield or first base. He holds a 12.7 percent strikeout rate and a 12.7 percent walk rate. Only Yordan Alvarez and Chase DeLauter have lower strikout rates as well as a higher walk rate in the whole league.

There are also signs that McGonigle has been a little unlucky as we near the season’s quarter pole. He holds a stellar .394 weight on-base average (wOBA), but Statcast says he should be at .401 based on his batted ball data. He’s slugging a heathy .477 but expected slugging says he should be slugging .535 and we have seen quite a bit of chilly, wet weather to start the year. Once it’s hot and low humidity, there’s a good likelihood that McGonigle has plenty more in the tank than we’ve seen already. On the other end, his expected batting average is .297 instead of the .315 he’s currently rocking, but we’ll happily trade a few singles for a few more home runs when he’s ready.

The best part of this, or at least the part that I was less sure about coming into the season, is that McGonigle is both playing a solid shortstop, and showing even a bit better speed than he did last year.

Perhaps the early season ankle injury in 2025 lingered a bit, or at least kept him less willing to push it for part of last year. His sprint speed is holding well above average, and we’ve seen him post some elite home to first times when he’s really needed to beat feet.

Defensively he’s a plus 2 in defensive runs saved at both shortstop and third base, and a minus 2 by Statcast’s Outs Above Average (OAA). Defensive metrics are still pretty variable this time a year, but we can at least confidently say that McGonigle is playing an average shortstop, confounding a lot of scouts who were pretty down on his ability to handle the position last year.

Most of this goes without saying if you’re watching the Detroit Tigers every night. There’s nothing flukey going on at all. Kevin McGonigle is already one of the best pure hitters in baseball, and he’s got a lot more home run power than he’s shown early on. All signs suggest that this is just a starting point for the 21-year-old as he leads the AL Rookie of the Year race, but is also making a convincing case as a possible MVP candidate. All this as a 21-year-old who will finally graduate from prospect status with his next at-bat tonight against the Boston Red Sox. He will have good competition the rest of the way from Guardians rookies Chase DeLauter and Parker Messick, as well as White Sox slugger Munetaka Murakami.

At some point perhaps we’ll see a little slump, but his approach, swing, and elite hand-eye coordination says that even those little slumps will just be blips on the radar as Kevin McGonigle holds at cruising altitude as an elite hitter, and looks to continue higher in the power department.

Congratulations to him on being named Rookie of the Month in the American League. Only five more months to go for a clean sweep.

There is a forecast of rain and storms sometime late this evening in Chicago.

As a result, the start time for the Cubs vs. Reds game scheduled for 6:40 p.m. CT has been moved up 30 minutes and will instead begin at 6:10 p.m. CT.

If you have tickets to tonight’s game, they should have already been automatically updated in the MLB Ballpark app (mine were). Gates at Wrigley Field will open 90 minutes to first pitch, or 4:40 p.m. CT.

Today’s BCB game preview will post at 4 p.m. CT.

Good move by the Cubs in trying to stay ahead of tonight’s incoming weather. Hopefully the 30 minutes will allow the game to be completed before storms hit.

The Twins managed to finish the week with a win, splitting a four-game series with the reigning AL Pennant winner, the Toronto Blue Jays. Unfortunately, both Joe Ryan, Cole Sands, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Walker Jenkins were the new additions to the injury report this week. There had been encouraging signs from the oft-injured Jenkins, as he was healthy from Opening Day in St. Paul, slashing .256/.396/.389 in 25 games. However, he ran into a wall this past weekend and looks to be out for the time being. With regards to Ryan, he was pulled from his start yesterday with elbow soreness after pitching to two batters. He underwent an MRI, but no further news yet. The Twins have fallen to the worst team in the AL Central after a good week from the Kansas City Royals, but this is shaping up to be exactly the season Twins fans were expecting.

The Past Week on Twinkie Town:

• Check out The Feed, where you can add your discussions about the Twins!
• We’re starting a new segment called Daily Questions! Provide your opinion on the Twins and debate with the community!
• Game threads and recaps are back! Commiserate with your fellow fans as we experience the season together.
• Zach Koenig bangs the “it can always be worse” drum as he looks back at the 2016 Twins team.

Elsewhere in Twins Territory:

• Dan Hayes at The Athletic checks in on Tom Pohlad one month into his first season as the Twins’ controlling owner.
• Neal Justin at the Star Tribune reviews the new musical about Joe Mauer at the Hopkins Center for the Arts.
• Lou Hennessy at Zone Coverage offers a few more bargain bin options for the Twins’ bullpen.
• There were signs of life from the bullpen yesterday, with Andrew Morris and Taylor Rogers leading the way.

In the World of Baseball:

• Nothing has really changed at the top of the American League, with the Yankees, Rays, and A’s leading the way, but the bottom has shuffled quite a bit, with the Angels and Twins joining the bottom five teams.
• Atlanta has a nice 2.5-game cushion at the top of the National League, and the Mets and Phillies have strung together a few wins after dealing with their double-digit losing streaks.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have been a nice revelation this season, and on Saturday, they shellacked the Reds and managed to make history by having every hitter in the lineup hit an RBI.
• Rob Thomson was fired by the Phillies after a 9-19 start. ESPN reported that Phillies POBO Dave Dombrowski had offered the opening to the recently-fired Alex Cora prior to letting go of Thomson, but ultimately Cora declined, and the Phillies appointed Don Mattingly as interim manager.
• Jay Jaffe at Fangraphs looks at how offense has changed with the new ABS challenge system.

The Mariners stunk it up real bad at home against the Royals and now have to face one of baseball’s hottest teams in the Atlanta Braves. Should be fine, right? 

Both of these teams are banged up pretty badly so we might as well do an injury roundup for both teams:

The Mariners will remain without Brendan Donovan for the series, although he’s set to begin a rehab assignment this week and will hopefully join the team this weekend in Chicago. Victor Robles is also nearing a return, but likely not for this series as he’s just started rehabbing in Tacoma. Cal Raleigh remains day-to-day with side tightness. The Mariners will also be missing setup man Matt Brash for a while longer as he deals with lat inflammation.

For Atlanta, they recently put Ronald Acuña Jr. on the 10-day IL with a hamstring strain. As obliques and lats stalk the Mariners, leg injuries seem to the the Braves’ běte noir; Michael Harris Jr. also has a balky quad and will likely be limited to DH duties during this series. However, that creates a logjam with catcher Sean Murphy, who will return this series after off-season hip labrum surgery and will also need to be limited to DH duties. Ha-Seong Kim has just begun a rehab assignment and won’t make the trip to Seattle. Spencer Strider returned from the IL to make his first start of the year on Sunday, but was battered in Coors Field, leading to a heavy bullpen day on Sunday. Atlanta is also currently without their closer Raisel Iglesias, albeit a less bitter pill thanks to their signing of former Padres bullpen ace Robert Suarez this winter — though it sounds like Iglesias will be activated off the IL on Tuesday as soon as he’s eligible. That’s all compounded by Atlanta missing four of its potential rotation arms due to major surgery this spring or last fall, with AJ Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep, Joey Wentz, and Spencer Schwellenbach all sidelined still for months to come.

All those absences and a few more from their bullpen depth have left Atlanta with a pathway to victory forged in prodigious offense outlays. The Team of the South spent several years as the most viable peer on paper to the Los Angeles Dodgers, boasting a blend of stellar players from their internal development and savvy external acquisitions, with extensions signed on their core players well below market rate allowing them to pay far less than the performance they’ve received would suggest. This year, their glovework in particular has helped them buoy a beleaguered rotation, with Gold Glovers at shortstop, first base, and even on the mound in Chris Sale, alongside strong defenders around the outfield.

Perplexing at the time and blessed in hindsight, Houston traded away Mauricio Dubón to Atlanta for light-hitting infielder Nick Allen this winter. The cost-saving move also saved the Astros from the indignity of paying a good player, allowing Dubón to slot into a roster so well I had to double-check he’d not been a Brave before. With Acuña out, Seattle gets a reprieve in the slightest degree, but he’s been a more modest engine for the Atlanta offense. Matt Olson and Ozzie Albies are longtime stalwarts, albeit Albies having a scalding hot opening to the year. Drake Baldwin and Michael Harris II look like their Rookie of the Year (or RoY-caliber) selves. Harris has been nursing a quad injury, so he’ll cede defensive ground to the speedy-but-thumpless White. Hotlanta is slightly more vulnerable as such, but it’s a bit like saying fighting a leopard in the daylight is easy compared to doing so at night.

Probable Pitchers 

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

Due to all the injuries the Braves have suffered in their starting rotation, JR Ritchie made his major league debut a little ahead of schedule. A 2022 first round pick out of Bainbridge High School, he quickly bounced back from a serious arm injury in ‘23 and jumped through Atlanta’s farm system. None of his skills truly stand out, but the sum of the whole package is an above average pitcher. His command is good enough, his fastballs have decent enough shape, and he has a deep enough repertoire to work through a lineup a couple of times. He won’t be dominant, but he’s good enough to hold down a spot towards the back of a rotation.

Bryce Elder has been a surprising stabilizing force in the Braves rotation. An All-Star back in 2023, he’s really struggled over the last two years, putting up a combined 5.59 ERA and a 4.55 FIP in ‘24 and ‘25. He’s made some subtle tweaks to his pitch arsenal and has looked solid across his first seven starts of this season. He added a cutter to his mix, and even though the pitch doesn’t really stand out, it has allowed him to cut back on the usage of his sinker. He’s now throwing his slider, his best pitch, as his primary pitch and increased the usage of his four-seamer as well. The results have been fantastic even if the underlying peripherals aren’t as impressed with his skills. Still, it’s vastly improved over his ugly performance from the last two years; that’s all the Braves needed at this point in the season.

Grant Holmes made the leap into the big leagues back in 2024 after a long and winding minor league career. The key to his late-career breakout was a revamped slider that helped him boost his strikeout rates up into the 24–25% range. An elbow injury affected his command last year and his results slid a little and he’s continued to struggle to start this season. He’s got a deep repertoire to work with, though the rest of his pitches are merely average at best. The slider is devastating, however, returning a whiff rate approaching 50% this year. 

The Big Picture:

Seattle’s embarrassing sweep – The Big P-Unit – at the hands of the Royals was another masterclass in what’s ailed these M’s. One-run and close losses with meat left on the bone. And yet, it lost them a whopping single game of positioning against the Athletics and Rangers. They saw their faces rubbed in the mud by the joint division leaders of the AL Central, the Guardians and Tigers respectively. The Lastros are no more, having sludged their way out of the sewer, taking two out of three from the similarly moribund Red Sox. Anaheim is in free-fall, dropping two of three to the Mets and having lost 12 of their last 14 games since their 11-10 start.