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The re-signing of Caleb Thielbar by Jed Hoyer for 2026 is a perfect example of recency bias.

Thielbar had a very good year for the Cubs in 2025, in some ways the best year of his career. He posted a 2.64 ERA and 0.879 WHIP in 67 games covering 58 innings, and allowed just five home runs. He was a key part of a very good bullpen that helped the Cubs get to the division series round against the Brewers.

But Thielbar had produced a poor year in 2024 with the Twins, who were more than happy to let him go at age 37. So he has a miraculously good year at age 38, and that prompted Hoyer to offer Thielbar a $4 million deal with a $6 million mutual option for 2027 (or a $500,000 buyout).

At age 39 and with that history, it seemed quite likely that Thielbar would regress in 2026, and that’s exactly what happened. He wasn’t doing too badly until April 23, when he allowed a home run to the Phillies’ Adolis Garcia and then left the game during the next at-bat with an injury [VIDEO].

The hamstring injury kept him out about four weeks, and he wasn’t very effective after that. The long ball was a problem for Thielbar in 2026; he allowed 11 of them in 50 innings, more than double his home run rate from the previous year (or indeed, from any previous season in his career). Again, at age 39 and with an injury that probably rehabbed more slowly than it would when he was younger, this might have been predicted.

The Cubs should have just thanked Thielbar for his good 2025 and tried someone else. That was $4 million wasted. Under no circumstances should they exercise the mutual option. Pay him the buyout and let him walk. His career is probably over.

With the Milwaukee Brewers’ 4-1 win over the Tampa Bay Rays, MLB crowned a first-time champion on Oct. 28.

It’s the fourth time since 2017 that a first-time team won the World Series.

Before 2017, the World Series went 14 seasons without crowning a newcomer as champ, the longest drought among North America’s four major men’s professional leagues since 2000.

The NFL is currently experiencing the longest drought, having gone 12 seasons since the Seattle Seahawks won their first Super Bowl in 2014 (the Philadelphia Eagles won their first Super Bowl in 2018, but had won three NFL championships before that).

The NHL is on a similar trend to MLB by crowning first-time champions; since 2018, four newcomers have won the Stanley Cup. Those champs are the Washington Capitals, the St. Louis Blues, the Vegas Golden Knights and the Florida Panthers.

The NBA has had two first-time champions since 2017: the Toronto Raptors and the Denver Nuggets.

How long did Milwaukee wait to win the World Series?

Counting the franchise's inaugural season as the Seattle Pilots and this year's title run, the Brewers took 58 seasons to win the World Series.

The franchise had been to the World Series once before – losing in seven games to St. Louis in 1982 – but had to hold out for the second-longest wait among expansion teams to win it. The Texas Rangers, who took 63 seasons to win it all in 2023, had the longest wait.

The Brewers, Rangers, Houston Astros and Washington Nationals are the only four expansion franchises that have taken over half a century to win the Fall Classic.

The shortest span from expansion to title was the Arizona Diamondbacks, who won the World Series in 2001 after their inaugural season in 1998. The then-Florida Marlins also won quickly, taking the 1997 title in their fifth season.

There is also a wrinkle to the Brewers' first-time claim. While it's the first World Series title in franchise history, the city of Milwaukee has won the Fall Classic once before: the Milwaukee Braves (now Atlanta) won the 1957 crown in seven games over the New York Yankees.

For non-expansion franchises, the longest wait from founding to title belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies, who won their first World Series in 1980, their 98th season. That count includes 20 seasons before the inaugural World Series in 1903.

Their 1980 opponent, the Kansas City Royals, was also title-less, making it the first World Series since 1920 in which neither team had won before. It didn't happen again until this year's Brewers-Rays matchup.

MLB teams that have never won the World Series

With Milwaukee off the board, there are now just four ballclubs without a World Series title: the San Diego Padres, the Seattle Mariners, the Colorado Rockies and the Rays.

Notably, the Padres joined the major leagues with the now-Milwaukee franchise in 1969. If San Diego's drought stretches to 2031, it would match the Rangers' 63-season wait.

Had Tampa Bay won this year, it would’ve ended a 29-season wait for the franchise founded in 1998. The Rays have now lost three World Series, having done so previously in 2008 and 2020.

Of those four teams, only the Mariners have never reached the World Series. The Padres did so twice, in 1984 and 1998, while the Rockies did so in 2007.

Among the teams without a World Series ring, Tampa Bay had the best regular season in 2026 with a 98-64 record. San Diego, however, wasn’t far behind at 91-71.

Seattle and Colorado both finished 2026 with losing records.

Methodology: USA TODAY compared first-time champions using lists from MLB, NBA, NHL and the Pro Football Hall of Fame. For details on franchise expansion waits to win the World Series and current droughts, franchise pages on Baseball-Reference were used.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Brewers win first World Series, ending 58-season wait. Who's left?

The White Sox looked north to find their next scouting leader.

The White Sox officially named Matt Roffe their director of amateur scouting, confirming last week’s reports that he was expected to take the job. Roffe, previously the Milwaukee Brewers’ assistant director of domestic scouting, fills the vacancy created by Mike Shirley’s resignation in September.

The move also continues an encouraging trend under general manager Chris Getz: looking outside the organization for fresh ideas and leadership. Roffe arrives from the newly crowned World Series champion Brewers, whose ability to identify and develop talent has helped them succeed without a hefty payroll. That makes Milwaukee a sensible place for the White Sox to look as they work to build sustained success of their own.

An executive’s résumé doesn’t guarantee that his former organization’s success will follow him to Chicago. Still, bringing in someone who has worked within Milwaukee’s scouting operation is reason for optimism.

Roffe spent the past five seasons with Milwaukee, working his way through scouting operations before reaching his most recent position. The Brewers’ 2023 media guide listed him as their scouting operations coordinator.

His résumé includes experience across several areas of baseball operations. Before returning to Milwaukee, Roffe worked as an analyst in player personnel and pro scouting for the Arizona Diamondbacks from November 2019 through October 2021. That followed a baseball operations internship with the Brewers in 2019 and a baseball research and development internship with the San Diego Padres in 2018. While attending college, he also interned in MLB’s Statcast and labor relations departments.

Together, those stops give Roffe a background spanning research, technology and player evaluation. How he applies that experience to Chicago’s scouting department will be one of the more interesting storylines to follow as he settles into his new role.

Roffe graduated from Washington University in St. Louis in 2018, majoring in finance and minoring in sports analytics. He also spent time on the Bears’ baseball roster. His freshman season included one appearance and one at-bat, going hitless as a pinch hitter against the University of Chicago on May 9, 2015. WashU won, 13-1.

Now, his next Chicago connection comes with considerably more responsibility: helping the White Sox identify the players who will shape their future.

The Milwaukee Brewers are World Series Champions.

For the first time in franchise history, the Brewers stand atop the baseball world, thanks to a 4-1 win over the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 5 of the World Series. And you know somewhere, Bob Uecker is smiling.

But while Milwaukee is known as a small-market team, playing a small-ball brand of baseball, the Brewers just completed one of the most dominant runs in MLB playoff history.

We can start with how Milwaukee rolled through the postseason. After winning a league-best 103 games — three games ahead of the behemoth Los Angeles Dodgers — the Brewers finished the playoffs with a combined 11-2 record. Milwaukee lost just one game in the NLDS to the San Diego Padres, swept those Dodgers in the NLCS, and lost a single game to Tampa Bay in the World Series.

Since MLB expanded to the division series, only two teams posted a better record than these Brewers: The 2005 Chicago White Sox and the 1999 New York Yankees. Both of those teams posted an 11-1 mark, good for a winning percentage of .917.

The Brewers joined the 2022 Houston Astros and the 1998 Yankees with their 11-2 record, good for a winning percentage of .846.

Milwaukee joined another small group with the sweep of the Dodgers. As pointed out by Jayson Stark, the Brewers became just the fifth team in MLB history to win 100 games in the regular season and then knock off the defending World Series champions in the postseason. Also on that list? The 2018 Boston Red Sox, who won 108 games and then beat the Astros in the ALCS; the 2009 Yankees, who won 103 games and defeated the Philadelphia Phillies in the World Series; the 1968 Detroit Tigers, who won 103 games and beat the St. Louis Cardinals in the World Series; and the 1942 Cardinals, who beat the Yankees in the World Series after winning 106 games.

And Milwaukee rode an impressive closing stretch to the title. The Brewers went 16-2 over their final 18 games, 19-3 over their final 22 games, 21-4 over their final 25, and 40-14 over their final 54 games.

They only lost five games — FIVE — since Labor Day.

That was back on September 7 if you do not have a calendar handy.

Pitching was certainly a key for the Brewers this October. As noted by the incomparable Sarah Langs, Milwaukee did not allow more than four runs in any of their 13 playoff games, joining the 1990 Cincinnati Reds and the 1983 Baltimore Orioles as the only teams to accomplish that feat over a run to a World Series title since the playoffs expanded back in 1969. And Milwaukee’s bullpen stood out as well, as that group threw 118 innings (55.1% of the available innings, fourth most in playoff history) but held opponents to a .173 batting average while posting an ERA of just 1.38. Those are the second-lowest numbers in a single playoffs since the 2022 Astros (0.83 ERA, .126 OBA).

While the Brewers posted a run differential of +26 over their playoff run, many of their games were close contests. (A 10-1 win over the Rays in Game 3 of the World Series skews that number).

But how Milwaukee responded in some of those games is another key indicator of how dominant — or perhaps how resilient — this group is. Stark found that according to STATS, seven times over these 13 games, the Brewers scored in the very next half-inning after allowing the opponent either tied the game, or took the lead against them.

Only three teams — the 2006 Cardinals, the 1997 Florida Marlins, and the 2002 Angels — did that more. But all three of those teams needed 16 games to do so.

However, perhaps the most eye-popping stat?

Four games to none, the sweep of the Dodgers in the NLCS.

After winning Game 1 2-1, Milwaukee dropped 19 runs on the Dodgers over the next three games, outscoring Los Angeles — the second-best team in the majors — by a combined 19-10.

“This group of guys right here, the 2026 team, will be remembered forever — and they deserve that because they were a team,” manager Pat Murphy said after the game. “They’re not worried about their own stats. No one cares about that. They care about coming together and winning tonight.”

The Brewers did not just win Wednesday night.

They have been winning all season, all fall, and all throughout the playoffs.

And now they are World Series Champions.

After a relatively topsy-turvy offseason, José Suárez somehow ended up back with the Atlanta Braves after getting DFA’d twice during the offseason by two different teams. He ended up doing well enough in Spring Training to make the Opening Day roster and even made a start for the Braves while he was here.

I think the fact that I am mentioning that he “made a start” for the Braves is an indicator that this wasn’t exactly a rip-roaring success for Suárez during his second go-around with Atlanta. Let’s talk about it, though.

How Acquired

After the Braves initially picked up Suárez in a trade with the Angels for Ian Anderson, he was DFA’d by Atlanta in January 2026 and subsequently claimed by the Baltimore Orioles. A few days later, the Braves claimed him back after the Orioles DFA’d him not long after claiming him. Ah, the life of being a fringe player in Major League Baseball, man.

What were the expectations?

Considering the offseason that he had with the Braves that I just described to you, it sure didn’t seem like Atlanta had many big plans for José Suárez in 2026. Sure, he was pretty good at accumulating whiffs, avoiding barrels and keeping the ball on the ground, but he wasn’t too successful with anything else — outside of a spot start in September where he absolutely dominated the Nationals (and then added on three more shutout innings against Washington a few days after that). He also didn’t really get much of an opportunity, as he only made seven appearances for the Braves in 2025.

With that said, Suárez did have some success as a starter and swingman in 2021-2022, though he fell apart afterwards. Projection systems didn’t seem to fully abandon that: Steamer saw him as a decent long man and fifth starter type, while ZiPS was a lot more optimistic with its central estimate of Suarez serving as a pretty bulky, 1 WAR-ish swing guy.

2026 Results

This time, José Suárez made eight appearances for the Braves in 2026. He ended up making the Opening Day roster out of Spring Training as a long relief pitcher and made his debut on March 31 in a start against the Athletics. It was, um, inauspicious to say the least; that was basically the end of any ideas of Suárez potentially being a starter for the Braves in 2026.

He then went on to pitch mostly low-leverage innings for the handful of appearances that he made from that point forward. Outside of his usual dominance against the Nationals, there wasn’t much to write home about for Suarez as the valleys ended up being deeper than his peaks. While his FIP- of 66 (2.73 FIP) suggests that he may have suffered from a little bit of bad luck compared to his lofty ERA- of 158 (6.60 ERA), he also benefited from a low HR/FB rate (93 xFIP-). The problem was that the José Suárez Experience made that FIP and xFIP nigh-unlivable, because he was walking batters at a 15.2 percent rate, and usually you’re asking for trouble with that much self-inflicted traffic on the basepaths. Sure, he struck out enough guys to not totally fall apart, and kept the ball on the ground-ish, but no one wants to insert the pitching equivalent of a rain delay into a game and hope he doesn’t blow up.

Either way, his appearance on April 30 (in the ninth inning, no less!) against the Tigers wound up being his final one for the Braves, as Atlanta DFA’d him on May 1 and the Mariners claimed him soon after that. He only made one appearance for Seattle before being DFA’d once again, but he ended up getting moved to the A’s for cash considerations. He actually got to spend a decent amount of time with the Athletics and made 36 total appearances before the A’s eventually DFA’d and released him in early-September.

His seasonal line was actually pretty good and right in line with projections: 0.6 fWAR on the back of a 134 ERA-, 89 FIP-, and 100 xFIP-. It was simultaneously a pretty good season for Suárez, but also kind of a miserable one in terms of the experience for the teams that employed him.

What went right?

Well, he ended up finishing the season with a Barrel percentage of 2.7 percent (99th percentile according to StatCast) and a Hard-Hit percentage of 32.3 percent (91st percentile) so he was pretty good at not getting hit hard. While he was with the Braves, he managed to deliver another strong performance against the Washington Nationals on April 21. He came in while the Braves were trailing 4-1 after a rough start from Reynaldo López and he proceeded to eat up nine outs while striking out four batters. He did give up four walks but none of them came around to score, so this was a solid effort for Suárez. (The Braves were blown out in the game… but not while Suarez was pitching.)

This was right after he pitched three scoreless innings against the Phillies on April 17 (and got credited with a save!), so there was a brief period where Suárez was looking pretty successful on the mound.

What went wrong?

Well, Suárez got a chance in high leverage on April 30 against the Tigers, where he got the ball in the ninth inning with the Braves down 3-2. Suárez struck out the first two batters and then it all went to pot from there, as he ended up going walk-single (with error)-walk-double to end up putting the Braves in a three-run hole in the bottom of the ninth.

Now granted, that single (and the subsequent error from Mike Yastrzemski) was comical and had to be seen to be believed but still, those two walks and that double basically put the Braves in a really tough position to bounce back and it ended up being Suárez’s swan song in the South. It absolutely wasn’t encouraging to see Suárez struggle with a particularly weak portion of Detroit’s lineup and it probably didn’t seem like things would get any better from there, so the DFA made sense.

It was also the second time he was present for an implosion in about a week: on April 25, he came into a tie game in the tenth against the Phillies, after Tyler Kinley had walked the first batter. Asked to face Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and company, Suárez also issued a walk to load the bases with none out, and a couple of two-run singles doomed the Braves from there. He actually struck out the side in the inning, but as is the theme here: he did okay, the team did not have a good time.

It also didn’t help that he got dinged for four runs on five hits and three walks during his only start of the season (back on March 31 against the A’s) for Atlanta. First impressions are a real thing, y’all.

2027 Outlook

Suárez is currently a free agent but he’s also 28 and a lefty, so it’s not hard to imagine him finding work somewhere in the bigs next season. Plus, all in all, he was pretty much fine in 2026, just in a really painful, unpleasant to watch way. It probably won’t be for a contender but if there’s a rebuilding team that needs some depth and someone to eat some innings when needed, Suárez will certainly be an option for that. I do think it’s safe to say that his time with the Braves is over after two seasons of minimal production with few chances. He probably projects as a generic reliever/swingman going forward… it just depends on how much a team is willing to tolerate his walk-laden profile.

In my last installment of “Playing Picollo,” I made a series of trades to reshape the Royals’ roster, leaving me with about $40 million to spend in free agency. The bullpen remains the biggest need, but there are still holes to fill in the outfield and rotation, and a couple of high-profile free agents have caught my eye. Unfortunately, I can’t have everyone, so I’ll have to make some tough choices. And before I’m done, I may have one more trade up my sleeve.

If you’ve listened to the Royals Rundown podcast much since the season ended, you know I desperately want to sign both Seiya Suzuki and Adrián Morejon. Unfortunately, they’re probably the two best players at their positions in free agency, so the bidding is going to be high on them. The Athletic predicts them at 5 years/$120 million and 3 years/$42 million, respectively. Technically, I could fit those two contracts into my roster, as their combined AAV comes to $40 million. But, realistically, I would guess that The Athletic is a bit low on at least one of them, and that would give me no wiggle room to do anything else. So I’m going to have to choose.

It’s a difficult choice. The bullpen needs help even more than the lineup does, but Suzuki would represent possible inroads into the Asian market that the Royals have thus far been unable to penetrate. It’s such a difficult choice that, instead of making it, I’m going to make one more trade first. I actually got both Jacob Milham and Max Rieper to sign off on this one.

Trade: Seth Lugo to Astros for Tatsuya Imai

This is a classic swap of dud contracts in the hopes that the players do better with a change of scenery. My favorite example will always be the time the Royals sent Jonathan Sanchez to the Rockies for Jeremy Guthrie. Imai is the clearly better pitcher, but he still wasn’t very good. And the real problem is that if he rebounds, he’s gone, because his contract is a series of player options. However, if he’s bad, you’ve got to pay him another $19 million in 2028. But I’m going to bet on Brian Sweeney getting him pitching well enough that he’ll decline to exercise that option.

Another benefit from the Royals’ perspective is that Imai has more recent bullpen experience. He finished the season in the Astros’ pen, so we can probably start him there and feel more comfortable about it than we would have with Lugo.

OK, time to make that choice.

Free agent signings

LHP Adrián Morejón, 3 years/$45 million

The Royals need depth more than they need a star, so I’m going to take the cheaper of my two preferred free agents and use the savings to bring in more guys. In case you’re unaware of how good Morejón was last year, he accrued almost 3 fWAR as a reliever. That’s nearly impossible to do. He had a 2.83 ERA and a 22.4% K-BB%. He’s going to be an exciting new closer and allow us to shift everyone else in the bullpen back a step, strengthening the whole unit.

I gave him a bit more than the projection because I think that’s what it would take to outbid everyone else. I’d probably even be willing to go as high as $50 million, but I’d want to start deferring some of that if possible.

LHP Steven Okert, 2 years/$16 million with a mutual option

I’m giving Okert a mutual option here with a $4 million buyout to push some of that money down the road. Okert doesn’t have a prediction on The Athletic’s article, so I looked at the reliever deals they have on there and knocked a couple million off because he’s comparable to at least some of those guys. Okert wasn’t great until two years ago, when he joined the Astros, but he’s been lights-out ever since, with good K-BB% figures and ERAs to match. I traded Daniel Lynch IV and baseball is chock full of left-handed hitters now, so I want to make sure my bullpen is stocked with them.

OF Taylor Ward, 1 year/$10 million

That’s the projected offer from The Athletic, and based on how poorly his season ended, I’ll do it. I think it’s worth the risk to see if he can rebound a bit. He can also platoon in left field with John Rave while Dylan Crews and Carson Roccaforte handle center field. I don’t plan for either position to be a strict platoon, of course. We need to play the hot hand regardless of the pitcher, but having the option to flip handedness and pinch-hit should give Matt Quatraro the flexibility to get the most out of his lineup.

RHP Hiromi Itoh, 3 years/$30 million

Since I didn’t get Suzuki but I did trade for Imai, and Kansas City isn’t known for its huge Asian population, I’d like to add Itoh here – coming from the Nippon Ham Fighters of the NPB – to give us a strong foothold in the Japanese market and hopefully to help both pitchers adjust to MLB. I don’t think Itoh is going to be in high demand because of his slight frame and lack of velocity despite his real NPB success, but that might mean he’s ripe to take a chance on a team that’s willing to take a chance on him.

As I’ve repeatedly written and spoken about, I simply don’t believe free agency is a good way to build a roster these days. So I did most of my work through the trade market, but I feel pretty good about these free agent signings to fill the remaining gaps. There are a number of relievers I’d offer minor league deals to for depth, including A.J. Minter, Evan Phillips, Derek Law, and Craig Kimbrel. They might get major league deals elsewhere, and good for them. I don’t think it’s smart to spend a ton of money on the bullpen, especially past the top guy or two. Guys surprise in both good and bad ways all the time and you don’t want to be locked in.

Final roster

Before I give you the 26-man roster, here are the guys I’m cutting from the 40-man to fit the four new free agents:

• Alec Marsh
• James McArthur
• Steven Zobac
• Ben Kudrna

I could have chosen Carlos Duran instead of any of them. And I really like McArthur, so actually, yeah, let’s make that switch.

• Alec Marsh
• Carlos Duran
• Steven Zobac
• Ben Kudrna

Anyway, here’s the new 26-man roster, first the position players (all new players in bold):

• C Salvador Perez
• C Carter Jensen
• 1B Vinnie Pasquantino
• 2B Michael Massey
• 3B Maikel Garcia
• SS Bobby Witt Jr.
• OF Jac Caglianone
• OF Carson Roccaforte
• OF Dylan Crews
• OF Taylor Ward
• OF John Rave
• UT Nick Loftin
• UT Tyler Tolbert

And the pitchers:

• SP Reid Detmers
• SP Noah Cameron
• SP Michael Wacha
• SP George Kirby
• SP Hiromi Itoh
• RHP Ryan Feltner
• RHP Lucas Erceg
• RHP Nate Pearson
• RHP Tatsuya Imai
• LHP Adrián Morejón
• LHP Anthony Gose
• LHP Steven Okert
• RHP Tony Gonsolin

Isaac Collins, Connor Thomas, Steven Cruz, and Nolan Hoffman all have options, so I can safely demote them to the minors. The relievers will all be up at some point. Collins probably will, too, assuming the entire outfield doesn’t stay healthy for the entire season.

While we’re at it, let’s imagine the lineups against left-handed and right-handed pitching.

Against right-handers:

• C Carter Jensen
• SS Bobby Witt Jr.
• RF Jac Caglianone
• 3B Maikel Garcia
• 1B Vinnie Pasquantino
• 2B Michael Massey
• DH Salvador Perez
• LF John Rave
• CF Carson Roccaforte

Against left-handers:

• 3B Maikel Garcia
• SS Bobby Witt Jr.
• RF Jac Caglianone
• DH Carter Jensen
• LF Taylor Ward
• 1B Vinnie Pasquantino
• 2B Nick Loftin
• C Salvador Perez
• CF Dylan Crews

Again, you don’t have to do it strictly by handedness. If Crews is hot and Rocc isn’t, then let Crews hit righties for a bit, etc.

Overall, I think this is a pretty decent roster considering how much work there was to do to get it where it needed to be. That’s not a perfect lineup, but I think it would be better than last year’s. And my new starting rotation has a much better history of health than the one the Royals started 2026 with. The silver lining with all those guys going down with TJ surgery last year is that some of them should return in midseason to help fill in the gaps as this team accrues its own injuries.

I even came in under budget! I added $43 million in salary obligations, but dropped around $3 million by demoting players and saved myself $4 million in the Lugo/Imai swap. That brings me to approximately $162 million spent.

The 2028 season is a completely different problem, and maybe I should be more concerned about that. But as a GM who is focused on building my roster through trades as opposed to just promoting from within or signing a lot of free agents, I think if we need to make adjustments downward in spending for 2028, I’ll be able to find takers for some of my expensive players as the prospects I still have rise through the ranks to fill those gaps.

What do you think of this roster? Would you be excited if this is what the Royals actually did?

The Pittsburgh Pirates and the rest of Major League Baseball is officially in the offseason after the Milwaukee Brewers beat the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 5 of the World Series to clinch their first title in franchise history.

After two years of the Los Angeles Dodgers winning it all with a top-three payroll in the league, this was a stark difference. Both the Brewers and Rays finished in the bottom half of the league in terms of payroll, yet they were the two most successful teams in the league all season long.

Milwaukee finished the season with a payroll of $146.2 million, which ranked 19th in the league, while the Rays were at $95.6 million. Only the Miami Marlins and Cleveland Guardians, who lost in the American League Championship Series, had cheaper payrolls than the Rays.

The Pirates hovered right in the middle of the Brewers and Rays, with a payroll of $106.7 million, which ranked 23rd in the league. They finished the year with an 82-80 record, their best mark since the 2018 season. They snapped an eight-year streak of losing seasons this year, proving that they are making some strong decisions within the organization.

Last offseason, the Pirates made an effort to spend a little bit more than they have in the past. In 2025, the team had an $84.4 million payroll, which ranked 27th in the league, and that resulted in just 71 wins for the club. By signing players like Ryan O’Hearn and trading for Brandon Lowe in free agency, the Pirates were able to improve their win total by 11 games, which could be a sign of what’s to come.

If the Pirates spend a little bit more money this offseason to improve some of their weaker spots in the lineup, it could result in another jump in the record books. That could lead to their first playoff appearance since 2015, when they were in the National League Wild Card game.

A lot needs to go the right way for the Pirates, but the Brewers’ success in scouting and development, along with just a smidge more spending, could go a long way for them.

As has been foreshadowed all year, the current collective bargaining agreement (CBA) between Major League Baseball (MLB) and the Major League Baseball Players Association (MLBPA) is set to expire on December 1, 2026.

Initial negotiations throughout the 2026 season have failed to result in a framework that both sides can agree to. This means that, unless something very unexpected occurs over the next month, MLB will be initiating a lockout when the current deal expires.

Now that the offseason is imminent and the lockout still seems inevitable, it’s time to set expectations for how this all works and what will differ about this offseason from a standard one.

What is a lockout?

A lockout is, essentially, the league forbidding teams from engaging with players in any way until a new CBA is agreed to.

Importantly, a lockout is distinct from a strike. In the latter, the players would be the party initiating the work stoppage whereas it is the league’s decision whether or not to enact a lockout.

A lockout is not required. The two sides could continue to operate normally while negotiating if they chose to. In 1994, the league did not enact a lockout, and the offseason operated normally as did the start of the season. It was not until mid-season that the players’ union authorized a strike after having seen no willingness from the owners to budge from their position about a salary cap. That mid-season strike and subsequent loss of the 1994 World Series was devastating for the owners and ultimately led to them dropping their demands for a salary cap.

Since then, the owners have not been willing to risk repeating a mid-season work stoppage.

Instead, if initial negotiations do not look like they will be easily resolved, MLB initiates a lockout the day the CBA expires. When that occurs, the following happens:

• Major League games can not be played.
• Teams are not allowed to contact players on their 40-man rosters.
• Teams are not allowed to make any transactions (signings, trades, etc.) involving Major League players.
• Players will not be paid their standard base salaries. The only money moving between teams and players during a lockout is from deferred contracts or signing bonuses that happen to be due during the lockout.
  • It is important to note, however, that the base salary of MLB players is only paid during the season even under normal circumstances. The players’ union will not feel the effect of a lockout on their wallet unless it drags into the start of the season.
• Players are not allowed to use any team-affiliated facilities regardless of the purpose.
• Any normal offseason activities that involve Major League players (notably the Major League portion of the Rule 5 Draft and spring raining games) will be delayed or cancelled depending on the length of the lockout.
• MLB.com and all official team websites will have all references to specific active players removed.

Essentially, MLB as a whole must stop operating during a lockout for as long as it lasts.

Minor Leagues

The restrictions above only apply to active members of the MLBPA.

Players that are either not on a team’s 40-man roster or a Major League free agent are not subject to the same CBA as the others are. This means that a lockout does not apply to minor league players unless they are on their organization’s 40-man roster.

Teams will be able to continue communicating with their minor league players throughout the offseason as well as signing minor league free agents. Should the lockout extend into spring training, minor leaguers will be able to participate in team workouts. Should the lockout extend into the regular season, the minor league season will begin as normal, with the exception of any players on their organization’s 40-man roster being barred from participating.

Timeline

December 1 is the most important date to remember as it is the final day of the current CBA. At midnight EST, the league is expected to initiate a lockout, just as they did in 2021.

This means that, just like in 2021, once the mandatory five-day waiting period following the end of the World Series concludes on November 2, teams will be able to make normal offseason transactions for roughly a month. They will be able to sign free agents, make trades, designate players from their 40-man roster for assignment, etc. until the lockout begins on December 1.

This dynamic led to an extremely busy November in 2021. Teams rushed to get as much certainty about their rosters as they could before the lockout officially went into effect. It is very possible that a similar frenzied month of transactions will occur again this November.

The lockout will almost certainly last until both sides agree to a new CBA. There is no strict timeline on this process completing. It could happen before the end of the 2026 calendar year (unlikely) or continue well beyond March 24, the currently scheduled Opening Day.

During the last CBA negotiations, the lockout lasted until March 10. At that time, the two sides were able to agree to a deal that included a delay to Opening Day to allow for three weeks of spring training, but salvaged a full 162 game regular season by rescheduling the opening week games for later in the season in addition to some double-headers.

How does it end?

Essentially, once a lockout is initiated, everything MLB related comes to a halt until either the two sides agree to a new CBA.

The only other way that the lockout would end is if the league decides to end it without a new contract agreed to. In that unlikely scenario, the MLBPA would have the option of formally striking or returning to normal operations under the old agreement while negotiating the next one.

For a new CBA to be ratified requires the approval of both the MLB team owners as well as the MLBPA.

• The league must pass a majority vote among the 30 team owners on a proposed CBA. With 30 total teams, the owners need a minimum of 16 yes votes on any proposal to ratify it.
• The Players’ Association must pass a majority vote between the player representatives for each of the 30 teams and the eight-player Executive Subcommittee. This means that the total voting body for the MLBPA is 38 and requires 20 yes votes for a majority.
  • It is worth noting that while the current CBA was ratified by the MLBPA with a 26-12 margin, the entire Executive Subcommittee at the time voted no on the proposal.

Until both sides vote to accept a CBA proposal, the lockout is expected to continue.

What it means for the Rockies

The above context about the impending lockout is equally relevant for all 30 teams in MLB. For the Rockies specifically, the lockout brings with it some interesting wrinkles and context.

• Rockies owner Dick Monfort is on the negotiating committee for the owners and has been a vocal advocate for a salary cap. Whether he gets his wish or not, it will be very telling to see how the team operates in the wake of whatever eventual agreement is made.
  • Monfort was also on the negotiating committee during the last round of CBA negotiations in 2021-2022. The Rockies were not particularly active during the initial transaction frenzy in November before the lockout but after the deal was struck Monfort gave the green light to the largest free agent contract in franchise history. There is no guarantee a similar thing will occur this time around, however, it would be an understandable for Monfort to want to make a show of confidence in whatever deal is eventually agreed to.
• In his post-season press conference, Rockies President of Baseball Operations Paul DePodesta said that in terms of a lockout the team just needs to be “prepared for any eventuality.” He mentioned specifically being ready to act aggressively in a way that the team was not in a position to early last offseason. Perhaps that portends to the Rockies being busy in November before the lockout is initiated.
• For his part, team President Walker Monfort stated that while losing games due to an extended lockout “would have a negative impact” that the team would operate as if they were planning for a standard regular season. It is possible that the impact of losing games, while large for all teams, would be less dire for a team deep in a rebuild like the Rockies than for those teams that have pushed their chips in for 2027.
• There was speculation all of last season that the Rockies were attempting to keep Charlie Condon (No. 2 PuRP) off the 40-man roster, despite a strong season at Triple-A, specifically so that he would not be subject to a lockout this offseason. Regardless of whether Condon was kept down in Albuquerque with this in mind or not, the net effect is that the third overall pick from the 2024 draft will be able to communicate with team personnel and participate in minor league games no matter how long the lockout lasts.

When all is said and done, the Rockies (and the rest of the league) are in for an unpredictable winter.

The basic framework of what’s coming is in place, but the specifics of how things play out will entirely depend on how negotiations progress once the threat of losing games becomes more immediate. Now we simply need to wait and see whether the two sides are able to find a compromise that both find acceptable.

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