SAN FRANCISCO, CA - JUNE 02: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees gestures to fans after the game between the New York Yankees and the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park on Sunday, June 2, 2024 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Finally. It’s been 168 days since the New York Yankees’ 2025 campaign ended in Division Series disappointment at the hands of the eventual AL champion Toronto Blue Jays. That was a big ol’ bummer, but it’s ancient history now. The 2026 MLB season begins tonight with the Yankees and San Francisco Giants kicking off the festivities out in San Francisco! Most of the other teams will then have their Opening Days tomorrow (or Friday in some cases).
Look, we’re pretty excited around here to see what Aaron Judge, Max Fried, and company do tonight, and we have a whole bunch of fun stuff planned for the day. So let’s just do a straightforward prompt for our Question of the Day: Who will hit the Yankees’ first two homers of the season? (Let’s keep it to just Yankees, sorry to Rafael Devers.)
Why are we phrasing the question this way? Well it honestly wouldn’t be very interesting to just ask about the first homer since the vast majority of responses would probably be “Aaron Judge, dummy.” So tell us the first two! Now, that could just be “Aaron Judge and Aaron Judge” since it’s fair to predict that the three-time MVP goes deep twice. But this at least allows for more creative responses! Judge and Jazz? Rice and Stanton? A Tuffy Rhodes-esque dark horse?
Have at it! I’m personally keeping it simple and going with Judge and Stanton. Those big boys can hit ’em out of anywhere, even San Francisco.
Jeff will begin our day on the site by previewing the full three-game Opening Day series against the Giants, checking out each pitching matchup. I’ll have our staff Yankees/MLB-wide predictions up and you can make your own! Josh will run through the Yankees’ full Opening Day roster when it’s finalized, Jake will break down the soon-to-be-revealed lineup, Sam will celebrate a former Yankee-turned-coach for our birthdays series, and Jonathan will offer a refresher on the new Yankees coaches on the block.
George Serrano cheers during the Los Angeles Dodgers' 2025 home opener against the Detroit Tigers at Dodger Stadium. (Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)
For many fans, Major League Baseball's opening day is somewhat of an unofficial holiday. Though this year offers a different viewing experience.
Instead of turning on ESPN or a regional sports channel to catch their favorite team, there will only be one game kicking off the season, and it will be streaming exclusively on Netflix.
On Wednesday, the New York Yankees and the San Francisco Giants will face off at Oracle Park. Retired baseball stars Barry Bonds, Anthony Rizzo and Albert Pujols, led by former ESPN anchor Elle Duncan, will be in the broadcast booth.
And for one of the many Netflix touches — "Thing," the lovable detached hand from the streamer’s Addams family spinoff “Wednesday,” will be throwing the first pitch.
It's the latest example of a streaming platform finding its way into live sports programming. All of the major services, including Amazon Prime, Max, Peacock, Paramount+ and others, carry some combination of professional sports packages for their subscribers.
For Netflix, this marks the first time an MLB opening day game will be seen globally, as Netflix reaches nearly a billion viewers in more than 190 countries and in 50 languages.
For Gabe Spitzer, Netflix's vice president of sports, it's a chance for the streamer to "work together with a league to grow that audience" beyond just the die-hard sports fans. “Maybe casual fans are tuning in, or someone who's watched a baseball documentary on Netflix thinks, ‘Oh, I'll check out the Yankees Giants game because it's live.’ That's our ultimate goal,” he said.
Netflix also turned Christmas Day into an event in 2024, paying $150 million a year for the rights to stream two NFL games on the holiday. The 2025 late-afternoon game between the Minnesota Vikings and the Detroit Lions was the most-streamed NFL game in history with 27.5 million viewers, according to Nielsen.
The opening-day game is part of a larger three-year deal the league has with Netflix, which is paying $60 million annually for a package that also includes the Home Run Derby and the annual Field of Dreams game in Dyersville, Iowa. The games became available when ESPN decided to opt out of its deal (the Walt Disney Co. unit negotiated a new package that gives the network 30 games and expanded streaming rights).
The MLB events will help inform Netflix about whether to pursue a larger package when the league's larger media rights contract, which includes the World Series on Fox, comes up for renewal after the 2028 season.
The streamer is also expected to engage in talks for a larger commitment with the NFL when the league exercises its option to reopen its media rights contract after the 2029-30 season.
But for now, the Netflix sports strategy is creating large-scale live events, which Spitzer calls “meaningful water-cooler conversation” for a global audience.
The streamer and the league worked together to make the Yankees-Giants game happen one day early and present it in prime time Wednesday night. As the sole game being played that day, Spitzer said it's “truly the launch of the season.”
“As we continue to grow baseball around the world and reach younger fans, Netflix is an ideal partner to help us further expand the sport’s fan base with its ubiquitous streaming service," Kenny Gersh, MLB's executive vice president of media and business, said in a statement. "They are approaching their first-ever MLB game with great energy and creative marketing. We are excited to work with them in joining MLB’s collection of elite media partners.”
Lee Berke, a sports media consultant, understands Netflix’s venture into live sports as a way to “elevate the profile of a particular game and give it a Netflix spin — making it something you would only see on Netflix.”
“Every sport is looking now for events that can be of interest to heighten fan awareness, sponsor and distributor interest during the course of a season,” said Berke, pointing out the NBA Emirates Cup — an in-season tournament sponsored by the Dubai-owned airline — and NHL’s Four Nations Cup. “Everybody's trying to come up with a variety of events, because they drive interest, they drive business and revenues. It sort of feeds on itself.”
As the sports industry continues to open itself up for these spectacle-driven games, it provides additional television opportunities for media giants such as Netflix, Berke said. In the end, Berke said, these games are overall beneficial to the industry.
To Berke, the only lingering fear is that game events could further fragment audiences, as different sports now span across several streaming platforms and networks. The upside is they have the potential to help sports leagues capture audience attention, maximize revenue and offset rising expenses.
“Let's be honest, if you're Netflix, you're looking to attract and retain subscribers. ... This is another tool in the toolbox for helping build growth and sustain subscribers,” Berke said. “The great consistent intellectual property out there that draws audiences year after year is sports, and if you find the right combination of them, it can help you drive your business.”
To aid this live sports push, Netflix recently recruited Duncan, the former anchor for ESPN "SportsCenter," to lead Netflix’s sports coverage. At ESPN, she said, it was “a very well-oiled machine that's been very successful" for decades with “a tried and true way” of doing things.
But as she transitions from a traditional TV network to a streaming service, Duncan's responsibility is different. It's no longer about serving a domestic audience of baseball superfans; she has to keep a sports-curious, global audience in mind.
“If you're watching ESPN, chances are you're a really die-hard sports fan, but Netflix is for everyone,” said Duncan. “How do we hook people who are more interested in watching 'Love is Blind' into a sports show?”
The baseball game will stream Wednesday at 5 p.m. Pacific time.
Times staff writer Stephen Battaglio contributed to this report.
A man uses the pedestrian bridge over the 110 Freeway that connects Chinatown and the area where Dodger Stadium is located. (Etienne Laurent / For The Times)
Dodgers fans generally hiss at the mention of Frank McCourt — the former owner took the team into bankruptcy, after all — but today is about tipping our cap to him.
Without him, fans would have no option to take public transit directly to Dodger Stadium. On his watch, the Dodgers helped secure government funding for the shuttle buses that provide free rides between Union Station and Dodger Stadium.
Sixteen years later, beyond the addition of a sister shuttle from the South Bay, that’s it.
The Dodgers boast the best team in the world. Shohei Ohtani is a tourist attraction. So is their historic ballpark. The Dodgers sold a record 4 million tickets last year.
In 1990, the last year Fernando Valenzuela pitched for the Dodgers, Los Angeles County unveiled a report that suggested ways to improve access to Dodger Stadium “for those who cannot or do not wish to drive.”
The options: a monorail, people mover, or light rail extension from the Chinatown Metro station; the shuttle buses that McCourt and Metro launched 20 years later; the gondola that McCourt first pitched in 2018 and continues to pursue; and a walking path.
A passenger exits the Chinatown Metro station in January. (Etienne Laurent/For The Times)
L.A. is all about the car. You will most likely drive to Dodger Stadium, and so will your children.
For decades, the Dodgers have promised to ease traffic by adding amenities that encourage fans to come early and stick around after the game. That has not materialized, and notorious congestion within and around the stadium is as much a tradition as Dodger Dogs.
What if you could walk, for real? What if you could head into the stadium along a beautifully landscaped and wide Dodgers-themed path, a blue ribbon of fans coalescing into a community, with decorations and food carts, shade and lighting, and chants of “Let’s Go Dodgers!” along the way?
You can walk now, sort of. It’s about a mile.
There's a map at the Chinatown Metro station displaying the pedestrian path toward Dodger Stadium. (Etienne Laurent/For The Times)
At one end of the Chinatown station, there is a map with a pedestrian route, in a glass case that faces away from Dodger Stadium. If you walk out of the station at the other end, or if you just start heading in the direction of Dodger Stadium, good luck finding the map.
There are Metro signs leading you back to the station from Dodger Stadium, but none leading you along the route there.
The Dodgers actually would prefer you did not take that route, or at least the last part of it. I walked it with Alissa Walker, whose Torched newsletter is the go-to place to learn how major sporting events impact the everyday lives of Angelenos.
We entered the Dodger Stadium property at an intersection with no crosswalks, where cars enter and exit the 110 freeway. We stood atop a dirt patch next to a crumbling curb.
“To go a very short distance safely with a feeling that you’re not going to die,” Walker said, “is very difficult.”
With Game 3 of the World Series underway at Dodger Stadium last October, a few folks scurried across a pedestrian bridge with LED lights and blue glow sticks.
The bridge connects Chinatown with Dodger Stadium, traversing the 110. Without this bridge, there is no walking path to Dodger Stadium.
“Our goal was, just by adding some lights, to make the really dark path at the top of the bridge at night a little bit brighter, so that it felt a little less scary,” transit advocate Jeremy Stutes said, “and to add a little bit of fun and whimsy.”
Glow sticks forming the "LA" logo of the Dodgers were placed on a pedestrian bridge over the 110 Freeway connecting Chinatown to the area where Dodger Stadium is located during the World Series and for several months after. As of last week, the glow sticks were no longer there. (Etienne Laurent/For The Times)
From the Chinatown Metro station, the bridge is three blocks up College Street and one block down Yale Street. It’s an easy walk, and for now you pass an elementary school, a church, a row of Chinese restaurants, a dirt lot where a hospital once stood, parking lots, and an auto repair facility with a Dodgers flag hung on a wall.
When I did the walk last week, the trash at the foot of the bridge included a plastic cup, socks, a piece of rotting fruit, a half-full bottle of tequila, and half of a turkey sandwich, peeking out from torn plastic wrapping that indicated the sandwich had gone bad three days earlier. On the bridge: shopping bags, a pair of flip-flops, stray clothes scattered at one end, and graffiti everywhere.
A sign painted on the sidewalk indicates the direction toward the Chinatown Metro station. (Etienne Laurent/For The Times)
That was the point those volunteers made last October: Clean up the bridge and light up the bridge — as they did for three days — and fans will walk there.
“It’s not that it’s not used,” Stutes said. “It’s not designed to be a safe space to use as an alternative to driving.”
When you cross the bridge, you can turn right or left along Stadium Way to get to a stadium entrance.
Turn right, as the map tells you to do, and you’ll encounter decaying sidewalks, with cracked and buckled concrete that turns a modest uphill walk into an obstacle course. Once you get onto the stadium grounds, the paint is fading along the pedestrian path, which offers you no protection from passing cars.
Turn left, and you’ll have to walk part of the way in the street, on an unprotected bike lane. You also could walk along the road behind the Fire Department training center, a path with no sidewalks and passing fire trucks. Either route takes longer than the one on the map, but you would enter Dodger Stadium through a pair of protected and brightly painted pedestrian paths. (That entrance, along Vin Scully Avenue, is a quarter-mile from Sunset Boulevard, where two Metro bus routes stop.)
If the primary choices for getting out of Dodger Stadium after a game are car congestion or Dodger Stadium Express shuttle bus congestion, a downhill walk to Chinatown Metro station — 12 minutes, Metro says — would be a nice option. That’s why those folks lit up the bridge over the freeway during the World Series.
“The lights were just a fun way,” transit advocate Kevin Dedicatoria said, “to show, ‘Hey, here’s a bridge so you don’t have to play, ‘Dude, where’s my car?’ or have to worry about waiting for the bus.’”
McCourt hails from Boston, where the local subway drops Red Sox fans a few short blocks from Fenway Park. When McCourt owned the Dodgers, I asked him if he could envision a subway or light rail extension to Dodger Stadium.
He’d love it, he said then, but the Dodgers were a private business, and government should pay for public transit.
Homes line a street in Eylsian Park, where Dodger Stadium is located. (ETIENNE LAURENT/For The Times)
It was a fair point. The Dodgers pay taxes. In an era where teams regularly demand stadium and arena deals that exempt them from property tax, the Dodgers have paid $12.8 million in property taxes over the past three years, according to Los Angeles County tax collection records.
Would demand for public transit amid a car culture justify the investment? The Dodger Stadium Express indicates it could: Ridership has just about quadrupled since its inaugural season, from 122,273 in 2010 to 463,147 last year, according to Metro.
Even along the poorly maintained, poorly lit and poorly advertised pedestrian path, Metro said more than 700 riders returned to the Chinatown station on each of the three nights of World Series home games last year.
“As seen in social media videos during the 2025 postseason, the walking path continues to explode in popularity,” Metro spokesman Jose Ubaldo said.
Next steps?
“It’s astonishing to me that the Dodgers have not taken it upon themselves, as this great community partner, to fix this problem,” Walker said. “It is the city’s responsibility, but the Dodgers should be doing this, as part of what they want to represent to this community.”
The walking path includes segments along city streets, a Caltrans bridge, and Dodger Stadium property. Just who is the responsible party?
A Caltrans spokesman said the city is responsible for maintaining the bridge. A spokesman for the city’s department of street services did not provide an answer. A spokesman for the Dodgers declined to comment.
You could almost hear the sigh from city councilwoman Eunisses Hernandez, whose district includes Dodger Stadium.
“That’s what my job is: to bring people and agencies and organizations together to accomplish a goal,” Hernandez said. “We’re already in conversation with all these entities.
“We’re looking at some of the things we can enhance to make this a more walkable and accessible option for people.”
City Council member Eunisses Hernandez, center, talks with Circle outreach workers in Los Angeles. (Allen J. Schaben/Los Angeles Times)
How much might those enhancements cost?
Without a look at a city-commissioned Dodger Stadium traffic mitigation study, expected to be completed this fall, Hernandez said she could not put a price tag on it.
“What I can tell you,” she said, “is that it will be less than half a billion dollars, for sure.”
By year’s end, the Los Angeles City Council is expected to vote on McCourt’s gondola project, estimated to cost $500 million and proposed as privately financed. Last November, the council voted 12-1 to urge Metro to kill the project.
Metro granted its approval, but with conditions that included a requirement to explore supplementing the gondola with other Dodger Stadium transit options, including more buses along Sunset Boulevard and a designated walkway from there to the stadium.
The walking path proposed in that 1990 study would have avoided Sunset Boulevard and the current Stadium Way routes — the ones with crumbling sidewalks, or no sidewalks at all — by using escalators and walkways to get fans up and down the hill between Lookout Drive, just off Stadium Way, and Dodger Stadium.
“Pedestrians could be directed through Chinatown,” the study read, “where numerous restaurants, shops and pedestrian amenities are provided.”
It’s hard to sell Chinatown businesses on the benefits of the gondola when fans would ride between Union Station and Dodger Stadium, soaring over Chinatown. It would be easier if a walking path led at least some of those fans through Chinatown, even if only on the way back from the game.
Even if the gondola system really can accomplish what its proponents say it can — loading 35 people into a cabin every 23 seconds — thousands of riders leaving when the game ends could mean a long line to board.
One of the entrances to Dodger Stadium on Stadium Way, the easiest access when walking from Chinatown Metro station. (Etienne Laurent/For The Times)
“Also,” the 1990 study said, “passenger waiting following a game is psychologically perceived as being three to four times longer than actual waiting time.”
From this perspective, McCourt might win a few council votes by funding a first-class walking path. The cost, I’m told, would depend on what the enhancements include: signs, lights, trees, shade canopies, sidewalk repairs, escalators, and so on. For something close to $5 million — one one-hundredth of the projected cost of gondola construction — McCourt likely could do an exceptional job.
Is there any sign of progress here? Happily, yes.
In an internal report last December, Metro said Zero Emissions Transit (ZET) — the nonprofit organization now shepherding the gondola project — is pursuing ways to link pedestrians and bicyclists to the transit system and to Dodger Stadium. Those potential improvements include sidewalk repairs and a revitalized pedestrian pathway from the Chinatown Metro station to the bridge across the 110 and then across Stadium Way, to Lookout Drive and the hill above.
“Dodger Walk is envisioned as a series of switchbacks,” the report said, “inspired by the original walking path up Lookout Mountain that existed prior to the construction of Dodger Stadium."
Whether such switchbacks would make the walk to the stadium longer or shorter than the current path remains to be determined.
In a statement, ZET said: “We embrace and include active transit solutions to increase pedestrian and bike access throughout the project area.” In particular, ZET said, it was “supportive” of a walking path to Dodger Stadium.
The Metro report cautioned the concepts “are in the early planning stage,” so L.A. might get an extravagant walking path, a utilitarian one, or none at all.
Here’s hoping McCourt gives us a path of some kind — whether the city approves the gondola or not — because a pretty walk generations can enjoy would be a prettier civic legacy than driving a team into bankruptcy.
Under current rules, the Dodgers can pay Shohei Ohtani $700 million if both parties find the sum agreeable. (Ashley Landis / Associated Press)
The Major League Baseball Players Assn. is arguably the strongest union in the United States whose members include some of the most conservative athletes in professional sports. The owners of Major League Baseball’s 30 teams, who made their wealth through the workings of free enterprise capitalism, want to limit what players can be paid. This apparent political and philosophical irony will most likely lead to a shutdown of baseball at the end of this season.
Wednesday is opening day for the 162-game major league season. The 2025 season ended Nov. 1 with an 11-inning Dodgers victory over the Toronto Blue Jays in what was one of the most mesmerizing World Series ever. Last season, the Dodgers attracted more than 4 million fans for the first time. The Dodgers weren’t alone. More than 71 million fans attended major league games — the third straight season of growth. Over the last decade, league revenue has increased 33%.
And yet, despite all this good news about the health of baseball’s finances, team owners have threatened to lock the players out — essentially an ownership strike — at the end of this season over terms of a new collective bargaining agreement soon to be negotiated with the players union.
Major League Baseball, unlike the NFL, the NBA and the NHL, does not have a hard salary cap that limits what teams can spend on players. This is the key issue for the 30 team owners and Commissioner Rob Manfred, who argues that the system is “broken.” Small-market teams can’t effectively compete, Manfred insists, with economic behemoths like the Dodgers and Yankees. But over the past 10 seasons, 14 teams have made it to the World Series, so the league is not dominated by only a few big spenders.
Major leaguers and fans have weathered five player strikes and four owner lockouts since 1972. The 1994-95 strike lasted 232 days, canceling more than 900 games, including the World Series. Unlike in the NFL, where top players like San Francisco 49ers quarterback Joe Montana crossed a picket line during the 1987 NFL Players Assn. strike, unionized baseball players have remained united. So far, no star players have been strikebreakers in baseball. Both Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates and Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers — the 2025 Cy Young Award winners for their respective leagues — also serve in players union leadership roles.
A recent report analyzing major league ballplayers' political affiliation found that among those who live in states that allow public access to voter registration records, nearly 54% of the players were Republicans compared with 8% Democrats. Why does a rightward-leaning membership retain such strong union loyalties?
For Miami Marlins pitcher Pete Fairbanks, who is also a member of the players union leadership, it comes down to recognizing that they stand on the shoulders of players who challenged the baseball establishment.
“If you look at the history of the union, we’ve had a foundation set for us,” Fairbanks said. “They fought for players’ rights and for the general betterment of the whole and it's the job of the veteran players to pass that history on to the younger players.”
Marvin Miller, a former Steelworkers Union leader, revolutionized the players’ union and baseball when he led the association from 1966 to 1982. He told the New York Times in 1999 that he was “irked” that many players did not know that it was the union that made their enormous salaries and benefits, arbitration and free agency possible. “When you don’t know your history, you tend to relive it,” Miller said.
Miller, who died in 2012, was a labor history buff who realized that highly skilled workers often developed elaborate ethical codes that promoted solidarity with other employees.
Bruce Meyer, the current executive director of the players association, puts the union’s fractious history with the owners at the center of his communications with players. He spent weeks talking with union members during spring training in Florida and Arizona, emphasizing the importance of unity in the ranks. “The bottom line is that our players have always been of the view that they are fighting not just for themselves but for their teammates and for the players that come after them,” Meyer said.
Manfred’s strategy as commissioner of Major League Baseball has been to talk directly with the players himself, especially the lower-earning younger players who he claims are being shortchanged. He argues that “10% of our players make 72% of the money,” numbers that Meyer disputes.
The commissioner is essentially telling players that their union has engaged in malpractice, losing touch with its own members while the economics of baseball changed around them. Meyer regards Manfred’s attempt to divide players as “standard management-labor tactics.”
Top agent Scott Boras said that, unlike in the NFL, baseball’s open salary system works for players because “your talent allows you to earn what you can earn without taking money from anybody else’s pocket."
Paradoxically, the union has embraced the principles of Adam Smith: Let the free market work. No one forced the Dodgers to pay Shohei Ohtani $700 million. Good for Ohtani, great for Dodger fans. And this year, the Japanese clothing retailer Uniqlo will be a field sponsor at Dodger Stadium. The owners, who embrace team revenue sharing and luxury taxes and demand restrictions on salary competition, sound like socialists.
When labor-management disputes interrupt baseball, many fans undoubtedly feel like they are victims of a squabble between “millionaires and billionaires.” Ryan Long, a 26-year-old minor league pitcher in the Baltimore Orioles system and a union leader, thinks the players association should try to understand how regular working people feel about a potential lockout. “Whether it’s people selling hot dogs at stadiums or cleaning rooms at local hotels, the union should help in whatever way it can for other workers who may be hurt if baseball shuts down,” he said.
In late February at the Yankees spring training field in Tampa, I spoke with season ticket holder Richard Barnitt, who wore a shirt designed like a baseball, looking like he could be scuffed up and pitched. “There has to be some kind of cap because the Dodgers and the New York Mets had unlimited money,” he said. Another fan, Carlos Rodriquez, an airplane mechanic living in Tampa, disagreed. “I don’t think a salary cap would be fair to the players,” he said. “The players association does magical work for those guys.”
If locked out, the players are going to want support from fans, to whom a salary cap might sound reasonable. Owners will do what owners do: maximize profits and franchise values. The players union should find ways to show the fans they are not forgotten.
During a previous owners lockout, the association created a million-dollar fund to help pay the bills of stadium concession workers who were thrown out of work. They can do the same again, letting fans know that they understand that most Americans struggle paycheck to paycheck. And maybe Ohtani can chip in a couple hundred bucks — like former Dodger Mike Piazza did decades ago — for each home run.
Kelly Candaele produced the documentary “A League of Their Own,” about his mother’s years playing in the All-American Girls Professional Baseball League.
CLEARWATER, FL - MARCH 20: Pittsburgh Pirates Infielder Konnor Griffin (75) reacts to a hit ball during MLB Prospects game between the Detroit Tigersx and the Pittsburgh Pirates on March 20, 2026 at LECOM Park in Bradenton, Florida. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Pirates fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have a potential generational hitting prospect in Konnor Griffin. The 19-year-old made headlines this spring for his prodigious power, but he also hit just .171 overall. As a result, he was optioned to Triple A even though the team is already starting extensions talk, reportedly.
Did the Bucs make the right decision for their budding star?
Cast your vote, tell us in the comments, and we’ll be back soon with the results.
SACRAMENTO, CA - DECEMBER 3: Steven Adams #12 and Fred VanVleet #5 of the Houston Rockets look on during the game against the Sacramento Kings in the NBA Cup on December 3, 2024 at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2024 NBAE (Photo by Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the NBA. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Rockets fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.
This week’s question is asking you to decide what player loss hurt the Rockets the most. The team has generally underachieved since Kevin Durant came to H-town, and there are multiple reasons why. Here are a few of them:
The first is the loss of Dillion Brooks, which had a much bigger effect on Houston’s defensive identity than expected. Houston lost perhaps it’s toughest wing defender and best tone-setter for the stifling defensive squad they were last year.
The loss of Fred VanVleet. The Rockets lost their floor general and the man who runs the offense, leaving them disjointed at important times.
The loss of Steve Adams. The Rockets became an offensive rebounding team this season, and when Adams went down, they lost their best rebounder and interior defender, with no one left capable of filling that role full-time. Cint Capela’s minutes are limited.
All three losses affected the team this year. Which one the most? You tell us.
Dunks are always worth two points, or at most three if you’re fouled, complete the dunk and add the free throw.
The math is different for Coen Carr and Michigan State.
“Like, his dunks are worth 10 points because they bring so much to the entire team,” Spartans guard Trey Fort said.
Or “more than two, at least,” said freshman forward Jordan Scott.
Their math is iffy, but this much is certain: Carr, a 6-foot-6 junior and first-year starter, brings a certain explosiveness that triggers the Spartans’ momentum, giving Michigan State a puncher’s chance of surviving and advancing through a loaded East region.
He had one of the best games of his career in the second round against No. 6 Louisville, posting 21 points and 10 rebounds to pace the 77-69 win and send the Spartans back to the Sweet 16 for the 17th time under Tom Izzo.
“Coen Carr played like the player we've all been waiting for," Izzo said. “Coen was like an ever-ready bunny, he just kept going and going and going."
As proved over the first weekend of tournament play, an active and aggressive Carr could give the Spartans the jolt they need to make the program’s ninth Final Four under Izzo.
“Just to be in March Madness, one of the greatest stages on earth, and to have a game like this, I just credit it to my coaches, my teammates, just for always believing in me,” Carr after the Louisville win. “They want me to go out there and be aggressive, and that's what I tried to focus on.”
Carr begins to thrive in Michigan State’s culture
Given the team’s depth of options, it may be a stretch to say the Spartans go only as far as Carr takes them. Michigan State’s transition game runs through point guard Jeremy Fears Jr., who averages 15.3 points and an NCAA-best 9.4 assists per game, and the halfcourt offense can often focus on the two-man game between Fears and forward Jaxon Kohler (12.6 points and 8.9 rebounds per game).
Still, Carr fits snugly into the Spartans’ scheme on both ends of the court as a high-flying human highlight reel who has harnessed his hops to become a far more complete player in his junior season.
After averaging 3.1 points in limited action as a freshman, he posted 8.1 points and 3.6 rebounds as a sophomore, when his playing time climbed to 20.1 minutes per game.
“For some guys, it takes a little bit of an adjustment period,” said MSU assistant coach Saddi Washington, who tutors the Spartans’ big men. “We’re just proud of him for sticking to it. That’s what it’s all about. We’re all trying to put these guys in position to be help us and ultimately help themselves.”
As a junior, Carr has started all 34 games while averaging 12.0 points and 5.5 rebounds. He’s also become a more complete defender, using his athleticism to race around the perimeter, defend the paint and pound the glass, helping MSU rank fourth nationally in average rebounding margin.
“Coen showed himself,” Fears said after the Louisville win. “He's been putting in time on his free throws, his shooting. His defense was something that me and him talked about. Like, in order for our team and us to take another step, that we needed to take our defense to another level.”
His slow progression across three seasons makes Carr a bit of a throwback: Once a top-tier recruit out of Greenville, South Carolina, he stayed the course at MSU instead of following a national trend that often sees potential impact players hop, skip and jump across multiple programs in search of increased minutes.
“Just got to realize that there is a process to everything, and some guys it takes a little longer, and some guys a little shorter,” Izzo said.
That Carr stayed the course is a testament to the program’s culture built across Izzo’s 30-plus years in charge, said Washington.
“I think the culture of the program has a big deal to helping guys stay around. Because that’s part of the secret sauce of Michigan State.”
Big plays, dunks boost Michigan State’s Final Four odds
What Carr brings to the table is infectious energy.
“It’s critical for him, it’s critical for our team,” Washington said. “It has a rippling effect for our opponents, our fans. It’s just so explosive when it happens. And we’re able to build off of those moments, because normally it comes after a big defensive stop, and then we’re blitzing and breaking on the other end.”
There’s a reason teammates joke that his dunks count for more than just the standard two points: MSU feeds off the momentum shifts that Carr can create in a flash — making a block on one end of the court, racing into transition and then throwing down an electrifying, rim-shaking slam.
“For me, I would say the energy it brings to everybody, the crowd, the little kids, the band section, the coaches, the bench, just everybody,” Carr said. “It's for me, but also it's for everybody else. I like to see the gym have energy, and that's what I try to bring every time.”
These moments have become “routine,” Scott said. “He’s got these crazy dunks. I don’t think people understand just how crazy some of the stuff he’s doing is. Like, even the top athletes in the world aren’t doing what he’s doing.”
His explosiveness sparked two key sequences in the second half against the Cardinals. After Louisville made it 38-33 a minute into the half, Carr scored on an alley-oop from Fears, made a steal on the other end and then added another dunk on an assist from Fears, pushing the Spartans in front 42-33 less than a minute later.
“The runs that Coen can create when he’s playing well, especially offensively, feels more than two or four or six points, or whatever he’s putting up,” said center Carson Cooper.
With about eight minutes to play and the lead down to 55-50, Carr was fouled while drilling a short jumper and added the free throw. On the Cardinals’ ensuing drive down the court, Carr blocked a shot and corralled the defensive rebound, leading to a pair of Kohler free throws off a Louisville flagrant foul. Carr then missed a jumper and gathered the offensive rebound, leading to a Kohler 3-pointer than put MSU in front 63-50 with 6:30 remaining.
“When you talk about energy, it’s like a hurricane,” Washington said. “Sometimes, it’s comes out of nowhere. Sometimes, it comes with great anticipation, because 15,000 people can kind of see it evolving as it happens.”
This impact will have to continue if MSU hopes to steer through a star-studded East region, beginning with Friday’s matchup against No. 2 Connecticut. With a win, the Spartans would take on the winner of No. 1 Duke and No. 5 St. John’s in the Elite Eight.
Given his recent tournament production, Carr’s ability to flip the script and spark game-changing runs makes him perhaps the biggest wild card and potential influencer of any player left in the field.
“Just seeing him doing what he does, it brings everybody with him,” Fort said. “It motivates everybody. His energy kind of fuels the entire team.”
Still, in a season where one game can make a significant impact even amid the backdrop of 161 others, USA TODAY Sports' power rankings moved a bit on its axis as the game's Opening Day(s) bear down March 25-27.
Kyle Tucker is still very rich, Paul Skenes still very good and Tony Vitello still untested beyond the rigors, such as they are, of the Cactus League. With that said, a look at updated power rankings as this six-month crucible gets underway:
Part of the return for Danny Jansen, the 2022 Red Sox second round pick got off to a tough start in the Jays organization, posting a .581 OPS in Vancouver after the trade. He bounced back last year, though, trimming his strikeouts and showing some pop on his way to a .273/.359/.427 line that was 19% better than the Northwest League average.
Coffey has MLB average raw power right now, and probably has room on his 6’1”, 190lb frame for another half grade of growth. His swing does a good job of using that power, producing a lot of line drive and low fly contact, leading to the hope that he can produce above average game power. His contact ability is fringy, and he especially struggles with breaking balls. That may prove to be a major Achilles’ heel as he continues to move up the levels and begins to face pitchers who can regularly throw quality sliders and curves for strikes.
Coffey mostly played third this year, and he profiles as an above average defender there with the plus arm to go with. He can also play second and while he’s not a true shortstop he can fill in there in an emergency. In the best case scenario, Coffey proves himself able to adapt to spin and becomes a low average high slug regular at third. More likely, he’s a power over hit utility infielder who needs to be sheltered from righties with good breaking balls.
23. Tim Piasentin, RHP, Age 19 (DOB: 3/25/2007, Happy Birthday Tim!), Grade 35+/40, 2025: High School
Piasentin is a local boy for me, having been drafted in the fifth round last year out of Foothills Composite High School in Okotoks, Alberta. He was the consensus top Canadian prospect in the 2025 draft, and it took three quarters of a million dollars to buy him out of a commitment to the University of Miami.
Power is what got him taken that high. Piasentin is a well built 6’3” and 205lbs, and he produces 70 grade bat speed that leads to light tower flies in batting practice. He has some feel to hit, but his contact ability is fringy and he profiles as a three true outcomes type hitter. He’s a below average runner and may not stick at third base long term due to his size and just ok athleticism, but his plus arm would be an asset in right field if he had to move.
It’s a prototypical slugger package, with the potential to be a middle of the order hitter if everything comes together. That’s a long ways away with a lot of questions to answer between now and then, though, as he’ll being his pro career this spring at the complex level.
22. Austin Cates, RHP, Age 22 (DOB: 5/20/2003), Grade 35+/40, 2025: NR
A seventh round pick out of UNLV in 2024, Cates hasn’t drawn a lot of heat yet, but he’s produced big results so far in his pro career. In 25 appearances between A and A+ last season, he struck out 113 against 33 walks in 109.2 innings, with a 3.12 ERA and peripherals that back it up.
Cates pitches with a short stride and a high release, allowing him to create big backspin on his fastball. It sits just 90-93 with the odd 95, but the spin induces near elite vertical carry and big arm side run for a four seamer. I think it can play above average, especially if he adds another tick of velocity after already adding a couple MPH since college. His main secondary is a splitter with similar arm side movement but 14 inches of vertical drop, and he can locate it down or just out of the zone for both called and swinging strikes. His slider is a clear third pitch, but it’s been effective because of its contrast to his other two offerings. He commands everything to an above average level, living in the zone while avoiding the heart of the plate.
If all that sounds a little like Trey Yesavage, well, no, because Trey throws 98. But you can see the outlines of a poor man’s version of the same general skill set here. Where Yesavage is a potential ace, Cates profiles more as a #5 barring an unexpected leap in his stuff. That’s still a very valuable outcome, though, and Cates has so far passed the tests that have been set for him.
21. Adrian Pinto, Age 23 (DOB: 9/22/2002), Grade 35+/40, 2025: 13th
Pinto has been a prospect crush of mine for going on four years now, since he was acquired as part of the Randal Grichuck trade with the Rockies. At just 5’6” and listed at 156lbs (though he’s surely somewhat heavier than that now), Pinto somehow generates slightly above average raw exit velocities with his long-ish, whippy swing. It’s a full body effort, but he’s a superior athlete with great hands and he manages to corral it enough to still make average rates of contact. His approach is aggressive, but he has an idea of the zone and has at times run high walk rates while always limiting his strikeouts. Over the past two seasons he’s learned to get the ball off the ground a little more and the whole package has come together to produce extremely loud results. Mostly at Vancouver, he’s put up a .310/.376/.588 line that was 64% better than the Northwest League Average across 197PA.
Aaaaaand, there’s the reason he’s down here at 21. Pinto has manage to appear in just 45 games over the past two years, 35 the year before that, then 47 before that. The injuries have been diverse, including ribs, hamstrings, and quads among others, but the overall conclusion seems to be simple: he’s small and he plays extremely fast and hard, and that takes a toll. He’s the kind of athlete whose body can do things it can’t sustain, and so he ends up on the IL.
At 23, the clock is ticking on Pinto’s career. He has the twitch and hands to be an above average defender at second base, and his above average speed looks like it could translate to centre field as well. That gives him multiple ways to get into an MLB lineup at premium positions, where he has the potential to be an above average producer. He needs to stay on the field to make any of that a concern, though.
This NCAA Tournament didn't give us much in the way of Cinderella. Instead, we'll see a who's who list of coaches from Power conferences this week. As good as players like Darius Acuff Jr. and Cameron Boozer are, the coaches supply the top star power in this March Madness.
Here's my ranking of the Sweet 16 coaches, with the caveat there's no true weak link on this list:
16. Fred Hoiberg, Nebraska
Commission the statue in Lincoln, Nebraska. Hoiberg led the Huskers to their first NCAA win in program history. Two days later, they got their second tourney win. Basketball looks good on Nebraska all of a sudden. Hoiberg’s NBA foray was a bust, but he was quite good at Iowa State and now historic for Nebraska. No shame being No. 16 on this list of luminaries.
15. TJ Otzelberger, Iowa State
It’s a testament to the Sweet 16 coaching talent that Otzelberger ranks this low. Iowa State won just two games the year before his arrival. Insert Otzelberger. He won 22 games in his first season, then continued winning more and more with blue-collar teams that defend the heck out of you. His tournament record is 7-6. Polish that a smidge, and Otzelberger will keep trending up.
14. Ben McCollum, Iowa
If you needed any more proof McCollum can flat-out coach, he just bested wunderkind Todd Golden, and his Hawkeyes stunned No. 1 Florida. McCollum won four Division II national titles at Northwest Missouri State, then turned Drake into a Cinderella success story, and now he’s in the Sweet 16 in Year 1 at Iowa. Buy your stock in McCollum, 44, now.
Underwood restored a program that had lost its way into top-20 status, where it belongs. He’s an NCAA Tournament regular, dating to his years as a Cinderella at Stephen F. Austin. A hard-nosed, high-intensity coach, he’s starting to develop a calling card for signing and developing international talent. Consider his latest team the Euro-Illini.
12. Sean Miller, Texas
Miller’s career winning percentage tops .700, and he’s made the Elite Eight four times. Pretty good. Two critiques, aside from that whole corruption scandal at Arizona: His resume lacks a Final Four, and his predecessors were better (Thad Matta at Xavier and Lute Olsen at Arizona). At age 57, he’s got time to make Texas his best stint yet.
11. Tommy Lloyd, Arizona
Lloyd’s record in five seasons at Arizona sparkles, and he’s a couple of wins away from having his national profile skyrocket. His Wildcats smoothly pivoted from the Pac-12 to the Big 12. Why not rank him higher? Well, Lloyd hasn’t advanced past the Sweet 16. Past teams didn’t live up to their NCAA seed. His latest team could change how we look at Lloyd.
10. Rick Barnes, Tennessee
Barnes should’ve made more than one Final Four at Texas. He endured a few tourney fizzles at Tennessee, too. He’s no shark in March. That’s a familiar critique. The upsides are clear, though. His teams always play defense. He thrives in the shadows at football schools. He’s an NCAA Tournament regular. He’s a no-drama coach seeking a third straight Elite Eight.
9. Matt Painter, Purdue
Painter gets consistent results without signing McDonald’s All Americans. You could focus on what he isn’t — a national champion — or you could credit his consistent success, even if his teams come up short of the pinnacle in March. Gene Keady became a Purdue legend. Painter has been a notch better than Keady. Some might call that legendary, too.
8. John Calipari, Arkansas
No mystery as to Calipari’s strategy. A recruiting dynamo with ample funding, he’s going to assemble McDonald’s All Americans, roll the ball out, and let the freshmen play. That strategy worked until it didn’t at Kentucky. A change of scenery to Arkansas suited him. He’s two wins away from becoming the first coach to take four schools to the Final Four.
7. Jon Scheyer, Duke
A legend’s succession plan doesn’t often unfold as smoothly as this one did. Scheyer kept Duke humming, and so Mike Krzyzewski can enjoy retirement. Duke is a recruiting machine, and credit Scheyer for getting return on that investment. Just 38 years old, he’s gotten better each season. After last year’s Final Four, the next task is obvious: National title.
6. Nate Oats, Alabama
Oats’ teams have an established identity. His Crimson Tide will shoot a lot of 3s. And they’ll make a lot of 3s, consistently ranking among the nation’s most prolific offensive teams. He’s a force of consistency, too, with four straight Sweet 16s, including the program’s first Final Four in 2024. He turned a football school into a basketball force.
5. Tom Izzo, Michigan State
Call it a rite of spring. Mister March is back in the Sweet 16 for the 17th time. Izzo’s 2000 Spartans remain the last Big Ten team to win a national title, and just when it had started to look like he’d entered the twilight of his career, he’s enjoyed a renaissance, with 57 wins the past two seasons.
4. Dusty May, Michigan
Others on this list have a longer list of career accomplishments, but there aren’t many coaches you’d rather have in this moment than the 49-year-old May. He took Florida Atlantic to the Final Four in 2023, and Michigan is roaring in his second season. He’s 120-26 the past four seasons. Superb.
3. Kelvin Sampson, Houston
Sampson’s teams consistently rank among the nation’s best defensively. He’s an excellent in-game tactician, too. The 70-year-old Sampson gets better with age. He’s won 30-plus games in five straight seasons. He came oh-so-close to his first national title last season. Perhaps, these Cougars will give him that final line on the resume.
2. Rick Pitino, St. John’s
How many rings would Pitino have if he’d never left Kentucky? Big Blue Nation must wonder. As it is, he’s got two rings. Pitino and John Calipari are the only coaches to lead three schools to a Final Four. Now, he’s got St. John’s into its first Sweet 16 since 1999. Pitino’s NCAA Tournament record is 57-22. Insanely good.
1. Dan Hurley, UConn
If nice guys finish last, what’s the opposite of that? Guys who throw temper-tantrums finishing first. No matter what you think of his antics, there’s no denying Hurley’s success. He just keeps winning, with a chance at three national titles in the past four seasons. Hurley elevated UConn to blue-blood status.
SAN DIEGO – Before he had even turned 45 years old, coach Rick Pitino published a book in 1997 that included his advice about aging.
“The older we get, the more we must change,” said the book entitled Success is a Choice. “Change is what keeps us fresh and innovative. Change is what keeps us from getting stale and stuck in a rut. Change is what keeps us young.”
Nearly 30 years later, we can see what he means. Pitino, now 73, is taking St. John’s to the Sweet 16 of the NCAA men's basketball tournament on Friday against No. 1-seed Duke. It’s the fourth school he’s taken to the Sweet 16. It’s also the fifth decade he’s taken a team this far.
Part of it relates to that advice in his book. But there’s more. And much of it was on display in San Diego recently, when his team won two NCAA Tournament games. Here are five traits that set him apart, backed by evidence and anecdotes from the past weekend:
1. Rick Pitino adapts and adapts again
Fellow Hall of Fame coach Bill Self of Kansas made an observation about Pitino the day before his team lost to St. John’s in the second round March 22. He said he was especially impressed by coaches who evolved to master changes in the game, including the introduction of the shot clock (1985) and 3-point shot (1986). Pitino was hired at Providence before either and then took Providence to the Final Four in 1987.
“I think that he's done that as well as anybody maybe ever has,” Self said.
2. Rick Pitino reinvents and rehabilitates himself
He was the head coach at Kentucky and Louisville, two archrivals. He was the head coach of Boston University and the Boston Celtics. Now he’s the head coach of St. John’s University of New York after previously serving as head coach of the New York Knicks.
It takes some personal reinvention to take on such starkly different jobs in the same cities or regions. It also took some self-awareness to put himself in exile and rehabilitate his image after a rash of scandals at Louisville, where he was fired in 2017.
He left the country to coach in Greece until 2020 and then came back to the U.S. to coach at Iona. He won enough at both places to put the scandals in his distant past and get hired at St. John’s in 2023.
He wasn’t even asked about those controversies in four news conferences while his team was in San Diego.
3. He keeps pulling the lever, encourages players to do same
Like with a slot machine at a casino, you can’t win the jackpot if you don’t keep pulling the lever. But you also risk big losses if you do. He takes this risk.
For example, St. John’s guard Dylan Darling had played poorly against Kansas on Sunday, missing all four shots he took. Then he had the audacity to ask Pitino for the ball on the final play with the score tied at 65-65 in the final seconds. Pitino let him do it despite Darling’s lack of production before then. Darling then won the game with a buzzer-beating layup.
Likewise, Pitino has emphasized 3-point shooting as a big key to success for his team in this tournament so far. If the shots don’t fall, he wants the players to keep shooting until they do. In the first half against Kansas, St. John’s hit just 7 of 23 3-point attempts.
"I kept telling them… every time out, 'Look, you're going to make five in a row; you're going to make six in a row,'" Pitino said afterward. "They didn't believe a word I was saying, but I was telling them you gotta keep shooting it. It was the only way we were going to win tonight."
St. John’s outscored Kansas in 3-point shooting, 33-15.
4. He’s cool and has swagger
In this regard, he’s somewhat like Deion Sanders, the football coach at Colorado. Both have been relevant in their sports since the 1980s. Both were innovative enough to pioneer the art of flipping a team roster with transfer players in 2023, when hardly anybody else was doing it. Both have a flair with fashion — Sanders with his sunglasses and jewelry, Pitino with his Armani suits and ties (while other coaches are mostly wearing athleisure gear).
What does any of this matter?
It signals confidence in their craft built over time while still daring to be different.
A cool head helps, too, avoiding exhaustion in a game of so many ups and downs. Did you see Pitino’s reaction to Darling’s game-winning layup against Kansas? Instead of exploding with joy in reaction to it, Pitino looked like his number was just called after waiting in line at the DMV.
The flashback still seems to make him edgy. He said Sunday he was "so sick of commercials with Christian Laettner hitting that shot over and over and over."
He said friends recently convinced him to watch a show on Hulu called “Paradise” but then learned Laettner’s shot is referenced in that, too.
"That’s cruel," Pitino said.
He got his own buzz-beater from Darling Sunday. Now it’s on to Duke in Washington, D.C.
“You win some, you lose some,” Pitino said. “And I'm hoping we can get Duke at the buzzer next to make up for that Christian Laettner shot.”
An MLB season is a marathon, not a sprint. Still, it never hurts to get off to a fast start.
Opening Day marks the starting line for 30 teams on their 162-game race to the postseason. A win is obviously the goal, but a loss to start the season isn’t the end of the world. Just look at some of the teams that have lifted the Commissioner’s Trophy.
In the 123-year history of the World Series, a majority of champions have started their title runs with an Opening Day win. However, a handful of recent World Series winners have proven that an Opening Day defeat is more than surmountable.
Let’s look back through over a century of MLB history and see how eventual World Series champions fared on Opening Day.
How many World Series winners lost on Opening Day?
Forty-one of the 121 World Series winners lost their first game of the season.
It was not a common trend in MLB’s early days. Between 1903 and 1934, six teams lost on Opening Day and went on to win it all.
The impact of a team’s Opening Day result noticeably dropped at the turn of the century. Since 2000, eventual World Series winners are just 15-11 on Opening Day.
What is the worst start to the season for a World Series winner?
The Atlanta Braves made history in 2021 by becoming the first MLB team to start a season 0-4 and wind up winning the Fall Classic.
Five other teams in MLB history overcame 0-3 starts to a season on their way to a championship. Six more started 0-2.
The remaining 109 World Series champions either won on Opening Day or picked up a victory in the second game of the year. That includes the 1933 New York Giants, who remain the only World Series winners to tie their season opener.
How every World Series winner fared on Opening Day
Here is the Opening Day result for every World Series winner in MLB history:
1903 Boston Americans: Won 9-4 vs. Philadelphia Athletics
1905 New York Giants: Won 10-1 vs. Boston Beaneaters
While the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament delivered mostly chalk results, there are a few surprises in the Sweet 16, led by No. 11 seed Texas and No. 9 Iowa.
The Longhorns, while not much of a Cinderella due to its school's stature as one of the most well-known brands in college sports, has already won three games in the Big Dance, after taking down NC State in the First Four before upsetting No. 6 BYU and No. 3 Gonzaga to set up a bout with No. 2 Purdue.
Texas runs into a tough Sweet 16 matchup against Big Ten tournament champion Purdue, winners of 10 straight.
Why Texas will upset: Chaos? The Longhorns have already beat two teams in a row that were favored against them, why not make it three in a row? Texas will need a huge performance from Dailyn Swain, who leads the team in points (17.4), assists (7.5), rebounds (3.5) and steals (1.7) this season. Seven-foot sophomore Matas Vokietaitis can also match up with Purdue's frontcourt, and he's averaging 18.3 points and 11 rebounds per game in the NCAA Tournament so far.
Why Texas won't upset: Purdue has too much offense and is peaking at the right time. Star guard Braden Smith was held to 3-of-12 shooting for 12 points against Miami in the second round, but Fletcher Loyer was there to pick up the slack with 24 points on a wildly efficient 6-of-7 shooting. Any of Smith, Loyer, Trey Kaufman-Renn and even center Oscar Cluff can cause fits for an opposing defense.
Two high-powered offenses meet for a spot in the Elite Eight after Arkansas fended off Cinderella-hopeful No. 12 High Point in the second round.
Why Arkansas will upset: Darius Acuff Jr. proves he's the best player on the floor. Acuff Jr. is already one of John Calipari's best freshman guards ever and is on a postseason heater, coming off a 36-point, 6-assist performance against the Panthers in the second round. The former five-star prospect can take over games, having scored 30 or more in three of Arkansas' last five games, all of which were wins.
Why Arkansas won't upset: Arizona is simply a wagon right now and looks like arguably the best team in the country. The Wildcats have everything, from a veteran guard in Big 12 Player of the Year Jaden Bradley, to a giant frontcourt with Motiejus Krivas and Koa Peat, and a pure bucket-getter in Brayden Burries.
Tennessee already has an upset under its belt this NCAA Tournament beating No. 3 Virginia in the second round. The Vols aren't a typical No. 6 seed, having now reached the Sweet 16 for the fourth consecutive season.
Why Tennessee will upset: Iowa State being without Joshua Jefferson. If All-American forward Joshua Jefferson is out against Tennessee, it gives the Vols an advantage. There's no doubt he's Iowa State best player. Senior guard Ja'Kobi Gillespie has been impressive through two games, with 50 combined points and 15 assists against Miami (Ohio) and Virginia, making him capable of taking over a game.
Why Tennessee won't upset: Iowa State guard Tamin Lipsey. The fourth-year player has started all 136 games in his career and is coming off a career-best performance against Kentucky, scoring 26 points with 10 assists and five steals. The hometown kid from Ames, Iowa, is a pesky defender, having made three straight All-Big 12 defensive teams. Gillespie vs. Lipsey will be a guard matchup to watch.
Legendary St. John's coach Rick Pitino proved 2025 was a fluke after the Red Storm were upset by No. 10 Arkansas as a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament last season, surpassing the first weekend in 2026 with wins over Northern Iowa and Kansas on a game-winning layup by Dylan Darling.
Why St. John's will upset: Rick Pitino. St. John's has one of the greatest game planners in college basketball history on its sideline. Duke also wasn't impressive in the first weekend, trailing No. 16 Siena by 11 points at halftime before starting slow against No. 9 TCU in an eventual 81-58 win in Round 2. The Johnnies can also match up with Cameron Boozer in the frontcourt, led by Big East Player of the Year Zuby Ejiofor and Bryce Hopkins.
Why St. John's won't upset: Duke found something in the second half against TCU, outscoring the Horned Frogs 43-24 in the second half. Everyone knows Duke boasts one of, if not the most talented roster in college basketball, and Cayden Boozer has filled in admirably since entering the starting lineup, with 19 points and five assists against Siena, along with nine points and another five assists against TCU.
Iowa and Nebraska have already faced twice this season, splitting the regular-season series. The Hawkeyes defeated Nebraska 57-52 in February behind Bennett Stirtz' 25 points, and they're obviously playing their best basketball of the season right now after upsetting Florida.
Why Iowa will upset: It defeated Florida despite Stirtz not being at his best. He was 5-of-16 shooting against the Gators for 13 points, despite averaging 19.7 points with 2.7 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game. Iowa also has first-year coach Ben McCollum, who's proving himself as a March weapon with three NCAA Tournament wins in his two Division I seasons at Drake and Iowa.
Why Iowa won't upset: Nebraska's hot shooting has been an issue through two rounds, especially with its home crowd taking over arenas. The Cornhuskers could very well turn Toyota Center in Houston into a home-court advantage again like they did at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, and it's clear the fans were a boost to Nebraska's chances.
Sweet 16 predictions: Who will advance to Elite 8?
Well, that was a fun first weekend. What other craziness is in store for the second one?
Sixteen teams remain in the Men's NCAA Tournament, and by the end of the weekend, four of them will be left and heading to Indianapolis. March Madness 2026 has delivered with some incredible finishes. There's every reason to believe the trend will continue in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight.
Some of the bold predictions from the start of the tournament didn't materialize, but there were a few that did come true. So, it's time to take another swing and share the bold predictions of what will happen in the last push to the Final Four.
Arizona-Arkansas, Michigan-Alabama light up scoreboard
Get ready to watch points galore with some incredible offenses going against each other.
Of the 16 teams left, four of them are in the top 13 of scoring, and even better, they'll play each other. The nation's top offense in Alabama (91.6 ppg) faces Michigan, which is ninth (87.4). Both teams scored at least 90 points in their first two games, and they will surely pass that.
In the West, the second-best scoring team in Arkansas (90.2 ppg) goes up against Arizona, 13th in the country (86.1 ppg). Given how the Razorbacks' scoring defense ranks 331st out of 365 teams, the Wildcats are going to be scoring at-will, and Arkansas has the talent to match it. As a result, we get two games where both teams pass the century mark.
Don't blink in these two matchups, or you'll miss a flurry of points.
Another No. 1 seed goes down
The chance at an all-No. 1 seed Final Four is gone. Three remain. Expect another to get knocked out.
Arizona and Michigan have looked nearly perfect, but clearly have to deal with potent offenses that can be overwhelming. Also, Duke has to face a red-hot St. John's team. There's a storm brewing for one of the top seeds, and as a result, only a maximum of two will get in.
As a bonus: the team that gets bounced first will be the Blue Devils, who clearly have some holes that can be exposed by the Red Storm or its Elite Eight opponent, extending the search for Jon Scheyer's first championship as coach.
Dan Hurley costs his team
You know the court gets hot when Hurley is on the sideline, but he may raise the temperature too much for his team to survive.
Connecticut will be in a classic against Michigan State with the game hanging in the balance in the final minutes. Something will happen, whether it's a foul call or missed one, that will get Hurley fuming at the officials. Referees try to be lenient when its the postseason, but the coach will go too far and get a technical foul, and possible double-T to giving the Spartans critical free throws that will make the margin too difficult for the Huskies to overcome.
Michigan State pulls through and the questions afterward will be if Hurley is to blame on the loss. Be on the lookout for a memorable press conference.
Houston cruises to Final Four
No team has a better draw to Indianapolis than Houston. Not only do they get a favorable path in facing Illinois and either Nebraska or Iowa, but the Cougars get to play in their own city. It doesn't get much better for Kelvin Sampson's team, which has looked completely dominant so far.
With all the momentum and great matchups, Houston doesn't just win, but does it easily with double-digit victories in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight. The blowout wins make it one of the most impressive runs to the Final Four as it's on a warpath to get back to the title game.
Last season finally broke Houston's second weekend struggles, where it was eliminated for three straight seasons before finally getting back to the Final Four. The Cougars get back-to-back appearances for the first time since "Phi Slama Jama" rocked the world.
Rick Pitino makes more history
No matter where he goes, success always finds Pitino. Now in 2026, he etches his name further as one of the best coaches of all-time.
St. John's has flipped the script from the beginning of the season to looking like a bona fide title contender, playing with a sense of swagger needed this time of year. The Red Storm not only take down top overall seed Duke, but they get past the Elite Eight to make their first Final Four since 1985. With the achievement, Pitino becomes the first coach to get four programs to the semifinals.
The path to the first national championship looks tough, but it will cap off the remarkable turnaround in New York City.
Six teams still alive in the Men’s NCAA Tournament know what it’s like to hang a banner.
Connecticut has won six national championships during the tournament era, most recently with a back-to-back run in 2024, to tie North Carolina for the third-most in Division I history.
Duke has won five, most recently in 2015. Michigan State has won a pair, including under current coach Tom Izzo in 2000 — still the most recent title for the Big Ten. Arizona (1997), Arkansas (1994) and Michigan (1989) have one.
That leaves 10 potential first-time champions in the Sweet 16, including recent powerhouses such as Houston, historically successful programs such as Purdue and Illinois and some dark-horse underdogs, led by traditional football power Nebraska.
Looking at each team’s Sweet 16 matchup and what opponents could await in the Elite Eight and beyond, let’s rank which of these 10 contenders has the best chance of joining the champions club:
10. Texas (21-14)
The West Region's 11-seed, Texas, has already won three tournament games to reach its second Sweet 16 since 2008. To keep going, the Longhorns would need to handle Purdue’s experience, potentially Arizona’s NBA-heavy roster just to reach the Final Four. If so, they’d become the third team to go from the play-in round to the national semifinals.
9. Iowa (23-12)
Iowa, the 9-seed in the South, is an underdog against the Cornhuskers and would be even bigger underdogs in a matchup with Houston or Illinois — let alone against the winner of a loaded East region in the Final Four. Then again, the Hawkeyes did just beat the Gators, so anything is possible.
8. Nebraska (28-6)
The fourth-seeded Cornhuskers’ magical run has included the first tournament win in school history and a dramatic 74-72 win in the second round against No. 5 Vanderbilt. Nebraska next draws rival Iowa after splitting the season series. It has a terrific chance at reaching the Elite Eight but would be very hard-pressed to knock off Houston, though Nebraska did beat Illinois on the road earlier this year.
7. Tennessee (24-11)
As mentioned, Tennessee’s outlook looks much better if Joshua Jefferson is unable to go for ISU. A few more days of recovery time should also help freshman forward Nate Ament, who had 16 points in the win against No. 3 Virginia. But in addition to not resembling a title team at virtually any point this season, the sixth-seeded Volunteers are battling coach Rick Barnes’ checkered tournament history. In 39 seasons, Barnes has made just one Final Four.
6. Alabama (25-9)
Midwest Region's No. 4 seed, Alabama, has a seemingly unfavorable matchup in the Sweet 16 against Michigan, which has the guard play, the beef in the frontcourt and the playing style to outgun the high-scoring Crimson Tide. On the other hand, the Tide have advanced past the Sweet 16 in each of the past two years and have a formula that’s proven to work in the postseason.
5. Illinois (26-8)
The biggest issue for 3-seed Illinois is the matchup against Houston in what should be unfriendly territory. With the Cougars looking like one of the top favorites for the national title, it’ll take a huge effort from the Illini just to reach the Elite Eight, let alone advance all the way to the program’s first championship.
4. Iowa State (29-7)
The one hangup for No. 2 seed Iowa State in the Midwest region is the injury to All-America forward Joshua Jefferson, who missed the second round against No. 7 Kentucky but is battling to get back for Tennessee in the Sweet 16. If so, the Cyclones are an obvious title contender. If not, ISU might not get past the Volunteers.
3. Purdue (29-8)
No. 2 seed Purdue is getting hot at the right time. After beating Michigan to capture the Big Ten tournament, the Boilermakers have dispatched No. 15 Queens and No. 7 Miami to set up a Sweet 16 pairing with Texas. While it’ll need better play from Braden Smith, who had eight turnovers against the Hurricanes, Purdue has Final Four potential.
Rick Pitino is the head coach. Is there more that needs to be said? Already the first coach to reach a Sweet 16 in five separate decades, Pitino is looking to lead his fourth program to the Final Four, having done so at Providence (1987), Kentucky (1993 and 1996-97) and Louisville (2005 and 2012-13). The fifth-seeded Red Storm have one of the nation’s best big men in Zuby Ejiofor and the physicality to handle No. 1 Duke in the East Region semifinal. From there, it’s either No. 3 Michigan State or a rematch with the No. 2 Huskies.
1. Houston (30-6)
Houston has an enviable path back to the Final Four in the South Region after finishing as the runner-up to Florida last April. While the Sweet 16 matchup with Illinois will be a challenge, the No. 2 Cougars won’t get Florida, which was upset by Iowa. With a win, UH would take on either the Hawkeyes or the Cornhuskers. Better yet, the regional semifinals and final are being played at the Toyota Center in Houston.
March Madness predictions: Who will win Sweet 16, Elite 8, reach Final Four?
