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The Mariners have entered that phase of the season where they’re just playing out the remaining games without much purpose beyond fulfilling the MLB schedule. The last time the M’s were playing irrelevant games this early in September was during the pandemic-shortened season in 2020. It’s been so long, I almost forgot what it was like to be in this limbo state.

Game	Time	Mariners Starter	Rockies Starter	Mariners Win%	Rockies Win%
Game 1	Friday, September 18 | 5:10 pm	RHP Bryan Woo	RHP Ryan Feltner	57.6%	42.4%
Game 2	Saturday, September 19 | 5:10 pm	RHP Bryce Miller	RHP Gabriel Hughes	49.6%	50.4%
Game 3	Sunday, September 20 | 12:10 pm	LHP Kade Anderson	RHP Tomoyuki Sugano	59.2%	40.8%

Overview	Mariners	Rockies	Edge
Batting (wRC+)	102 (5th in AL)	91 (15th)	Mariners
Fielding (FRV)	-48 (15th)	-30 (15th)	Rockies
Starting Pitching (FIP-)	100 (8th)	119 (15th)	Mariners
Bullpen (FIP-)	103 (9th)	100 (10th)	Rockies

The Rockies are well acquainted with playing irrelevant games, however. The last time they were truly competitive was back in 2018 when they won 91 games. Since then, the team has been in the midst of a long and arduous rebuilding cycle that doesn’t seem like it’s anywhere close to ending. After reaching a nadir seven years into this cycle with 119 losses last year, the team finally made a change atop the organization, hiring Paul DePodesta to lead the baseball operations department. The team is on track to make a 16 win improvement over last year — a small but meaningful step forward — but the work of building another contender in Colorado will continue for the foreseeable future.

Player	Position	Bats	PA	K%	BB%	ISO	wRC+
Jake McCarthy	LF	L	558	15.8%	5.2%	0.190	112
Connor Norby	2B	R	354	28.8%	10.5%	0.141	96
Hunter Goodman	C	R	535	31.8%	8.2%	0.288	113
TJ Rumfield	1B	L	600	13.7%	11.7%	0.154	125
Cole Carrigg	CF	S	335	23.6%	8.4%	0.199	104
Kyle Karros	3B	R	441	20.2%	11.3%	0.165	103
Mickey Moniak	RF	L	416	27.2%	5.3%	0.242	94
Adael Amador	DH	S	68	14.7%	10.3%	0.254	135
Ezequiel Tovar	SS	R	479	25.5%	6.1%	0.123	51

Here’s a crazy stat: the Rockies’ .325 wOBA as a team is the highest it’s been since 2019. Over the past six years, despite playing in a stadium that boosts offense to ridiculous levels, the team has put up a .308 wOBA, 21st in baseball during that period. Last year’s breakout from Hunter Goodman and this year’s breakout from TJ Rumfield have gone a long way toward improving the lineup. Those two batters are dramatically different in approach; Goodman is a traditional power hitter with huge home run totals to go along with a huge strikeout rate. Rumfield is more measured in his approach, content to take a walk and put the ball in play to take advantage of the huge outfield in Coors Field. Cole Carrigg and Kyle Karros are another pair of youngsters who have shown a lot of promise this year. There are glimpses of a competent lineup here.

Probable Pitchers 

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

Pitcher	IP	K%	BB%	HR/FB%	GB%	ERA	FIP
Ryan Feltner	116.2	17.0%	9.7%	13.2%	42.4%	5.63	5.13
Bryan Woo	162.1	24.8%	5.3%	9.4%	37.3%	3.88	3.31

Pitch	Usage vRHB	Usage vLHB	Velocity	Stuff+	Whiff+	BIP+	xwOBA
Four-seam	21.4%	34.8%	94.7	89	64	106	0.406
Sinker	26.2%	4.2%	94.2	88	100	155	0.301
Changeup	6.9%	27.6%	85.1	97	146	78	0.190
Curveball	3.7%	7.3%	79.4	93	54	64	0.445
Slider	25.1%	21.1%	89.1	100	82	96	0.398
Sweeper	16.7%	4.9%	81.9	100	49	74	0.333

The Rockies don’t have a starter listed for Friday’s game at the time of publication but I expect Ryan Feltner to take some portion of the bulk innings. He had been a member of the Rockies’ rotation for most of the year but has been shifted to the bullpen in a long relief role recently. He pitched on Tuesday in relief of Kyle Freeland and spun five shutout innings against the Padres. At one point back in 2024, he looked like he had figured out how to find some success pitching at altitude — he posted a 4.49 ERA and a 4.16 FIP in 30 starts that season — but a series of injuries last year derailed that progress. He’s been mostly healthy this season, but his effectiveness has waned and now the team is reevaluating where he fits on the roster.

Pitcher	IP	K%	BB%	HR/FB%	GB%	ERA	FIP
Gabriel Hughes	59.1	19.0%	8.7%	9.0%	40.7%	6.37	4.04
Bryce Miller	107.1	24.3%	7.8%	15.3%	37.5%	4.19	4.55

Pitch	Usage vRHB	Usage vLHB	Velocity	Stuff+	Whiff+	BIP+	xwOBA
Four-seam	51.3%	50.6%	92.4	84	80	113	0.300
Sinker	14.3%	7.6%	92.9	81	164	64	0.326
Changeup	4.6%	15.6%	87.8	80	33	91	0.396
Curveball	3.7%	15.0%	78.7	82	103	116	0.232
Slider	11.5%	5.6%	86.5	96
Sweeper	14.6%	5.6%	85.5	96

It must be totally demoralizing to be a pitching prospect in the Rockies organization. You put in all the work to make your way through the minors up to the big leagues and then face the toughest pitching environment in baseball. Gabriel Hughes made his debut in July and has actually pitched pretty well all things considered — his park-adjusted FIP is better than league average at 92. Unfortunately, his ERA is more than two runs higher at 6.37. His fastball has a really interesting movement profile; it doesn’t fade arm-side like most four-seams tend to do. Instead, it has a bit of cut to it so that it’s almost arrow-straight from a three-quarters arm slot. Opposing batters find it extremely hard to square up even if they have no problem making contact with it.

Pitcher	IP	K%	BB%	HR/FB%	GB%	ERA	FIP
Tomoyuki Sugano	142.2	14.0%	5.5%	15.3%	37.6%	5.49	5.49
Kade Anderson	25.1	19.6%	7.5%	13.8%	35.1%	5.33	4.44

Pitch	Usage vRHB	Usage vLHB	Velocity	Stuff+	Whiff+	BIP+	xwOBA
Four-seam	18.6%	22.6%	92.5	86	78	80	0.416
Sinker	25.2%	14.0%	92.5	82	41	58	0.445
Cutter	11.3%	10.5%	89.0	82	74	84	0.481
Splitter	15.2%	26.2%	86.9	73	87	109	0.312
Curveball	5.6%	9.7%	79.8	84	65	97	0.331
Slider	11.3%	7.7%	85.4	87	59	86	0.311
Sweeper	12.9%	9.3%	83.7	87	62	58	0.327

Every rebuilding team needs a veteran innings eater or two to soak up as many innings as possible during the season. That’s Tomoyuki Sugano’s job this year. After coming over from NBP last year, he’s posted nearly identical 5.36 and 5.49 FIPs over the last two seasons while making 57 starts for the Orioles and Rockies. He’s got a deep repertoire that features a solid splitter, three variations on a breaking ball, and three very hittable fastballs. It’s a problem when all three of your fastballs feature expected wOBAs that start with a four.

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The Big Picture:

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Run Diff	Recent Form
Astros	77-76	0.503	—	-50	L-L-W-L-W
Rangers	76-77	0.497	1.0	-39	W-W-W-W-L
Mariners	71-82	0.464	6.0	-56	W-L-L-L-W
Athletics	61-92	0.399	16.0	-214	L-W-L-L-L
Angels	59-94	0.386	18.0	-77	L-W-W-L-W

On Wednesday, the Astros and Rangers were tied atop the AL West standings, but separated by a game after Houston won and Texas lost on Thursday. The Astros host the Braves and the Rangers host the Blue Jays this weekend.

There’s a decent chance that your life insurance premiums have helped pay for Shohei Ohtani’s contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

It’s possible that we don’t hate them enough.

The federal investigation into Mark Walters, the Dodgers’ owner and chairman, and the lawsuit just filed by policyholders with various insurance companies he owns both point to the same thing: that the Dodgers are the powerful, infinite money cheat that they are because Walters basically loaned his Guggenheim Partners money from these insurance money pools to enhance their investments. Like buying the Dodgers. Or the Lakers. Or everything else.

Pablo Torre, fresh off of exposing the Los Angeles Clippers’ pathetic efforts to circumvent the NBA salary cap to satisfy Kwahi Leonard, has moved on to the Walter story and even in the first episode of his report, there’s enough to make you want to chew asphalt to stop from screaming.

So, yes, your suspicion that this golden era of Dodgers baseball is fraudulent in some way has proved to be correct. I can’t remember when I said this — it was either 2023 or 2024 — but I figured that the only thing that could take down the Dodgers is some unforeseeable calamity or a massive scandal, and I think they’ve got a scandal.

From The Athletic:

At the core of the suit are allegations that the insurance companies misled policyholders about the structure of their annuity packages by secretly sending their money into a fund fueling Walter’s larger business network. That fund allegedly helped Walter buy the Dodgers in 2012 and a majority share of the Los Angeles Lakers in 2025, along with a raft of other investments.

In typical annuity plans, policyholders make payments to insurers, which then invest that money into stocks, bonds or index funds that pay the customer interest over time. Insurers normally invest their customers’ money into relatively safe assets and, by law, must notify regulators about any investments made in entities affiliated with the insurer.

Walter’s firms Delaware Life and Clear Spring allegedly reported having 3 percent of their assets in affiliated companies, but were actually investing 42 percent of those payments in companies affiliated with the billionaire’s other business interests, accounting for nearly $17 billion. The companies described the discrepancy as an internal labeling error.

The implications of the Walter investigation is sort of more than people probably want to fathom, because to think that Mark Walter is the only billionaire engaging in this sort of impropriety to enrich himself and his investing partners is a degree of naivete that should automatically ban you from using the internet. This entire century has seen digital robber barons loot the public in every conceivable manner.

The Torre video points to some of the extreme cronyism that setup Walter as he came to Los Angeles to purchase the Dodgers, including how rigged their incredibly rich cable TV deal actually was. It just underscores how naturally suspicious we all should be of so-called billionaires. They don’t come by those billions honestly, and they have your hand in your pocket whether you like it or not. They see a pot of money — risk pools, state and federal taxes, etc. — and they see opportunity and begin planning for a heist. They’ll dress themselves up however they have to get people to let them inside.

Mark Walter has no blood relationship to the Guggenheim family. Guggenheim Partners, founded in 1999, came by their name through a licensing deal with the Guggenheim family, because “The Guggenheim name has long been synonymous with philanthropy and has a reputation for its contributions to the advance of humanity.” ::wanking motion:: The real reason? Mark Walter, a charlatan, needed to buy credibility, which the Guggenheim name instantly conferred. “The firm was created to bring the Guggenheim name back to Wall Street after decades away from finance.”

A side note: this is actually standard practice in high finance. Giants principal owner Charles Johnson was the CEO of Franklin Templeton investments from 1957 to 2004 (taking over from his dad who began the firm in 1947). Franklin Templeton gets its name from Benjamin Franklin, “because Franklin epitomized the ideas of frugality and prudence when it came to saving and investing.” ::wanking motion:: Also, as a reminder, Johnson helped get Donald Trump into the White House and has bankrolled this century’s conservative reformation of the United States. Billionaires are, effectively, roaming nuclear warheads.

But these nukes don’t have autonomous guidance systems. They need to be brought in like the Trojan Horse. Mark Walter softened the ground in Southern California by charming the LA Times and getting LA’s mascot, Magic Johnson, firmly on board (see Torre video for more on Magic’s involvement). Granted, the McCourt family were rotten and hollowing out the Dodgers, but the LA Times puff piece on him was silly in the moment and gross to read now.

“Decent” is one word often used to describe Walter, 51, the chief executive of Guggenheim Partners, a financial services company that manages more than $125 billion in assets. He’s also private, unassuming and almost studiously unflashy.

Born in Iowa and schooled at Creighton University and Northwestern University Law School, Walter has a net worth of $1.3 billion, according to Wealth-X, a Singapore business-intelligence firm that assesses the fortunes of the ultra rich and ranks Walter seventh among Major League Baseball owners. Walter is not on the Forbes list of the world’s billionaires.

[…]

“I’m a fairly quiet and private person,” he said at the time. “So I haven’t sought publicity.”

[…]

The insider who spoke on condition of anonymity said the firm’s success owes largely to Walter’s fiscal discipline and his skill as a “very focused, very careful” investor.

“I can tell you he is a guy with one of the great financial minds of our time, and he will help that team,” the person said.

Walter has said he is making a significant personal investment in the team, but neither he nor the Dodgers’ new ownership group — Guggenheim Baseball Management — has revealed the sources of purchase money in its all-cash bid of $2.15 billion, which topped others by about $500 million and was well above most estimates of the franchise’s worth.

So, yes, everything is true. Families were denied life insurance claims while they paid for Blake Snell’s bogus rehab stints. Shohei Ohtani will be collecting your parents and grandparents’ premium dollars and down the ripping off taxpayers. The Dodgers are the devil and if this century has proved anything, it’s that evil always wins.

But make no mistake, the Dodgers will probably win this series because the Giants stink by comparison. Sure, there has been some excitement with some flashes of upside from younger players and Los Angeles is looking very old these days — but, come on. The Dodgers have been better than the Giants for a while now. Even if this scandal takes them down, the only thing that does is give Giants fans a momentary thrill. Like the old couple in What About Bob? who help Bob because they hate that Dr. Leo Marvin swooped in and took the house they dreamed of buying right out from under them and then cheer when Bob blows up that house.

It doesn’t change the fact that the Giants have been losers for most of the last decade (and 13-13 in this Oracle Park era). And, as shaky as LA has looked — they had a losing record in August (13-14)! and were 26-25 in July & August — they’re 11-5 in September, 47-28 on the season in Dodger Stadium (and have won 10 of their last 12 home games). Sure, Shohei Ohtani is out, Freddie Freeman’s power has disappeared, and Blake Snell actually seems to be hurt again. But, Tyler Glasnow’s off the IL. They have Tarik Skubal. Mookie Betts has been hot the past month (.951 OPS). Jorge De Paula, their top hitting prospect, is up and having Juan Soto-esque at bats. The Giants might shut down Logan Webb for the rest of the season, but if they don’t he’ll probably get buzzsawed. Rafael Devers is out, but Bryce Eldridge is heating up. Jonah Cox is a dude. Jung Hoo Lee is not.

The rivalry has never been more dead and over, but it’s never been a better time to hate the Los Angeles Dodgers, because you cannot hate them enough. They lied, cheated, and stole their way to championships, which on the one hand is great, but on the other hand might put a lot of insurance purchases in a bad situation. It’ll also be bad for baseball fans because it’ll be used as cover to lockout the sport and (attempt to) break the MLBPA. Of course the Dodgers won’t lose their championships over this. The Astros didn’t. In fact, the Astros were hardly punished. The rest of the sport was: the qualifying offer came in, the minor leaguers were shrunk, a bunch of rule changes meant to “improve” the game were foisted on the players… and that’s what’s on offer with the Dodgers situation infecting these CBA negotiations. Like the NBA’s ridiculous salary cap system, owners use their own management decisions to both damage their investments and inflect pain on their labor force.

Rich people and baseball owners, especially, steal money from regular people all the time — that’s what all those publicly financed stadiums amount to — but this time, it’s the Dodgers doing it and in a very damaging way. The Dodgers, the “crimes.xls” organization, might have ruined baseball, but in so doing, they might have given the public a crucial glimpse behind the curtain to see just what our American oligarchs are up to — it’s not just seeing the sausage being made, it’s seeing that we’re the sausage.

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Series Overview

Who: San Francisco Giants (64-89) at Los Angeles Dodgers (93-60)
Where: Dodger Stadium | Los Angeles, California
When: Friday at 7:15pm, Saturday at 6:10pm PT, Sunday at 1:10pm PT
National broadcasts: Apple TV (Friday)

Projected starters
Friday: Cesar Perdomo (LHP 0-1, 3.68 ERA) vs. Tyler Glasnow (RHP 4-1, 3.50 ERA)
Saturday: TBD vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP 10-7, 2.70 ERA)
Sunday: TBD vs. TBD

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Prediction time

Jonah Cox will steal a base. Freddie Freeman will homer. He has hit 1 home run in his last 244 plate appearances (58 games).

The Pittsburgh Pirates is a team that is filled with a bunch of young talent. Even though they most likely won’t make the playoffs this year the future looks incredibly bright. Here are three young players that will be the stars for Pittsburgh next season.

Konnor Griffin  

The obvious pick here is Griffin, the Pirates drafted him 9th overall in the 2024 draft. In his first season in the majors Griffin has a .262 batting average with five homers and 27 RBIs. The 20 year old has missed a lot of the season due to injuries.  

His offensive numbers aren’t mind blowing but he does a little bit of everything on the field. His baserunning and defense are both excellent which makes a truly dangerous and versatile player. Griffin is only 20 years old so he will grow and mature as a player as well, so the future at short stop is bright. 

Esmerlyn Valdez

Esmerlyn Valdez has been a great source of power for the Bucco offense. He has 17 home runs and 47 RBIs on the season with 72 games played. The right fielder is just 22 years old, marking another big time player that is under the age of 25 for this team.

Valdez is already one of the better hitters on the team and the fact that he is just 22 years old and this was just his first season in the majors should be really exciting for all the fans. 

I expect both Valdez and Griffin to be big time contributors to the offense lineup next season. They have both dealt with injuries throughout the year but if they are able to stay healthy for next season we could be looking at two players that will be considered stars on the team. 

Rafael Flores Jr.

It has been a while since the Bucs have had true offensive power from behind the plate but Flores jr has brought that in only 40 game plates this year. The 25 year old has nine homers with 40 RBIs. He has split time from  behind the plate with Henry Davis and Endy Rodriguez. 

I know that Rodriguez was playing pretty well before he suffered his season ending injury but I see a lot of potential in Flores jr.  He brings power to the lineup and is a good defender behind the plate. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Pirates come into next

season with Rodrigues and Flores jr as their main two catchers, leaving Henry Davis behind. 

If these three players continue to develop and grow we could be looking at the next big three Pittsburgh and could possibly see those young stars help the Pirates finally get into the playoffs for the first time since 2015. 

The 2026 Texas Rangers currently sit at 76-77 on the season, with nine games to go.

Most years, a team in this situation would either have been eliminated or would be on the verge of elimination, would be simply playing out the string or hoping for a miracle.

In the wild and wacky world of the American League in 2026, however, the Rangers are still legitimately in contention for a playoff spot.

They aren’t favorites, to be clear. Currently, Fangraphs gives the Rangers a 32.9% chance of making the playoffs, including a 21.8% chance of winning the division.

Those aren’t great odds. But if we think about it from a baseball perspective, its not exactly a long shot, either. Joc Pederson and Ezequiel Duran each have a .329 OBP this year, so we can think of the Rangers’ playoff chances as being more or less the same as Duran or Pederson getting on base in any given plate appearance this year.

The teams that the Rangers are fighting with to make the playoffs, with their Fangraphs playoff odds, are:

Houston Astros— 81.0% playoff odds

The hated Astros.

Currently sporting a 77-76 record, one game up on the Rangers, and holding the tiebreaker, so effectively two games up.

Fangraphs gives the Astros a 77.8% chance of winning the division,* and a 3.2% chance of getting the third Wild Card berth. Basically, if the Astros don’t do well enough in their final nine games to stay ahead of the Rangers, they probably aren’t going to do well enough to earn a Wild Card berth. That being said, if Astros were to win the division and the Rangers win the Wild Card, or vice versa, the two teams would almost certainly face each other in the Wild Card Round,** which would be exciting.

* The Mariners, currently 71-82, have a 0.4% chance of winning the American League West, an eventuality that none of us want to think about.

** The first two Wild Card spots will almost certainly be filled by the Yankees (88-64) and the Red Sox (83-70), unless the Rays (93-59) completely collapse and get passed by the Yankees. Regardless, the top two Wild Card teams are almost certainly going to be the second and third place finishers in the American League East, and as the #3 and #4 seeds they will play each other in the other American League Wild Card series.Thus, the team that gets the third Wild Card will end up playing whoever has the worse record between the A.L. West champ and the A.L. Central champ, with the team with the better record, as well as the A.L. East champs, getting a bye.

The Astros were in much better shape a week ago, before they got swept by the Rays in Tampa. Like the Rangers, this week they won two out of three at home, though the Astros were facing a weaker opponent in the Royals.

Chicago White Sox— 80.7% playoff odds

What a great story! The Cinderella team of 2026, coming off three straight 100 loss seasons, currently 78-75, tied for first in the A.L. Central. Chicago has led the American League Central for most of the second half despite everyone waiting for them to fade.

The problem is that the White Sox are kinda starting to fade. They were 2.5 up in the division after beating the Twins on September 6. They’ve gone 3-7 in ten games since then, including getting swept at home by the Pirates, though a 3-1 win against Detroit on Thursday may have righted the ship. The White Sox currently are given a 51.0% chance of winning the A.L. Central, and a 29.4% chance of claiming a Wild Card spot.

Cleveland Guardians — 77.1% playoff odds

Cleveland has won the A.L. Central three of the past four seasons, including chasing down a Detroit Tiger team last season that was up as many as 11.5 games in the division in late August. When the Tigers* ended up going into sell mode a couple of months ago, Cleveland was the team expected to inherit the A.L. Central lead when the ChiSox turned back into a pumpkin.

* The Tigers have a +74 run differential — fourth best in the American League — and are 72-81. The Rays have a +80 run differential and are 93-59. Baseball isn’t always fair.

The Guardians just keep plugging along, having just won two of three at home against Chicago, though the White Sox own the tiebreaker over Cleveland. Fangraphs has them with a 49% chance of winning the division and a 28.1% chance of earning the Wild Card.

Toronto Blue Jays — 23.8% playoff odds

Last year’s A.L. champs have not built on their 2025 success, and are sporting a 76-77 record. This is largely due to an underachieving offense with the best OPS+ among the regulars coming from third baseman Kaz Okamoto, with a 110 OPS+. George Springer (104) is the only other Blue Jay with at least 300 plate appearances to have an OPS+ over 100. Vlad Guerrero Jr. has a 92 OPS+ on the season and just nine home runs. He had his first home run at home this season less than a week ago. Its weird.

Still, Toronto has hung around, and after bottoming out at 49-59 in late July, they’ve won 27 of 45, including 11 of their last 17.

Baltimore Orioles — 4.5% playoff odds

At 75-78, the Orioles are just one back of Texas and Toronto, despite having gone into sell mode at the deadline. Their path to a potential playoff berth is a narrow one, but there is a path.

So what lies ahead for these six teams that are battling for playoff spots?

Texas plays three games at home against the Blue Jays, the team they are tied with in the Wild Card race, this weekend. After an off day Monday, the Rangers play three at home against the Mets, then finish out the season with three in Minnesota.

Texas holds the tiebreaker against Cleveland, Baltimore and Toronto, but would lose a tiebreaker against the White Sox or Astros.

The Rangers need to win at least two of three against Toronto to feel good about things heading into the final week. That would give the Rangers effectively a two game edge over Toronto in the Wild Card race, and at least a one game edge over Baltimore even if Baltimore sweeps this weekend, due to the tiebreakers. Losing two of three puts the Rangers behind Toronto by a game, and also likely means, at best, treading water relative to Houston and the A.L. Central teams, and likely losing ground they can’t afford to lose. I’d expect Skip Schumaker to manage the next three games like a playoff series.

The Rangers have Kumar Rocker going up against Dylan Cease Friday night, Cal Quantrill versus Jose Soriano on Saturday, and Jacob deGrom going Sunday, with the Jays’ starter yet to be determined. The Friday matchup is the worst one for the Rangers, though the heavy bullpen usage on Thursday means that the Rangers may ask Rocker to wear it if they get down significantly early, or have Trevor Williams eat innings to save the rest of the bullpen. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Robby Ahlstrom was sent down so the Rangers could bring up Winston Santos, who last threw 36 pitches on Sunday for Round Rock, as a length guy to be used in case of a blowout.

If the Rangers can win at least two of three, they should be in a relatively good place for the final week. I would expect Nathan Eovaldi, who says that after Wednesday’s four inning outing he’s ready to move back into the starting rotation, to start Tuesday’s opener against the Mets and, if the game matters, the season finale against the Twins, with deGrom most likely pitching the opener in Minnesota on Friday.

Houston finishes out their season with three at home this weekend against Atlanta, an off day on Monday, two games in Seattle, and then a four game set in Sacramento against the A’s. Atlanta hasn’t clinched the N.L. East mathematically yet, but up four on the Phillies and with the tiebreaker in hand, and with the likelihood of passing the Brewers or Dodgers to earn a first round bye remote, the Braves don’t have a ton to play for.

In the opener, Houston has Peter Lambert going up against our old friend Tyler Mahle (who has been surprisingly effective since being traded to the Braves, putting up a 1.25 ERA in 43 innings over 7 starts) in the opener, Hayden Wesneski facing Grant Holmes on Saturday, and then Hunter Brown going against our other old friend Martin Perez on Sunday. The Braves are narrow favorites on Friday, with Saturday’s game likely being a pick ‘em or the Braves as slight favorites. Other than a hiccup a couple of starts ago, Brown has been outstanding of late, and Houston is probably going to be a significant favorite in that matchup.

As for the Seattle and Sacramento series, the reflexive reaction is to say, well, Seattle and the A’s are terrible and are playing out the string, so Houston will go at least 5-1. I will note, however, that Houston has a losing record against both of those teams this season, including a 2-9 record against Seattle. The Rangers went 2-5 in Anaheim and Sacramento last month in a series we thought we could clean up in, and just lost 2 of 3 in Seattle. You may say, well, yeah, but that’s because we’re the Rangers and they are the Astros, but I’m going to tell you a secret…the Astros aren’t any better than the Rangers right now. And the A’s actually have a winning record this month, including winning a series in Toronto.

Houston will be without Carlos Correa the rest of the season, which is a blow for them, as he is one of just six players who have appeared for the Astros this season with an OPS+ over 100 (one of those six is Nick Allen). Yordan Alvarez has been an MVP caliber performer this year, Jeremy Pena is raking, Isaac Paredes has been quite good, but there have been problems elsewhere in the lineup, and their bullpen, outside of Josh Hader, has been shaky.

The White Sox played Detroit on Thursday and have three more against them at home this weekend before an off day on Monday, followed by three in Kansas City and three at home against the Rockies. The White Sox rotation is a bit unsettled, with Luis Castillo, acquired from the Mariners at the deadline, being moved to the pen in favor of 25 year old rookie David Sandlin, who has a 5.64 ERA and 5.04 FIP this season. If Chicago can take two of three against Detroit, they should be in good shape with their weak opponents the final week, though their Three True Outcome-oriented offense has cooled of late.

Because they have the tiebreaker over Texas, the Rangers really need the White Sox to either be very good or very bad at this point. If the White Sox are very good, it makes it more likely they win the division over Cleveland. Since Texas has the tiebreaker over Cleveland, we’d rather see Chicago win the division than the Guardians. Alternatively, if the White Sox go into a tail spin and finish, say, 2-7, that puts the Rangers in a better position to pass them in the Wild Card race and not have to worry about the tiebreaker.

Cleveland has three games at home against the A’s this weekend, an off day on Monday, then three games in Boston before finishing the season with three games in Kansas City. The Guardians figure to be heavy favorites in all three games this weekend, and a sweep would put them in a very strong position for the final week, even with having to face a very good Boston team (albeit one that will not have much to play for) at Fenway.

Something to be aware of — if the White Sox, Guardians and Rangers all finished with the same record, and tiebreakers between the teams would determine both the A.L. Central and the third Wild Card spot, the White Sox would be named division winners by virtue of having won the season series against Cleveland. Then the tiebreaker would be applied to the Guardians and Rangers, in which case the Rangers would get the third Wild Card spot since they also won their season series against Cleveland.

Cleveland also lost their season series to Houston, so they’d lose out to the Astros should the two of them tie for the third Wild Card spot. The only contender they have the tiebreaker advantage over is Baltimore, which is the team they’d be least likely to be tied with, I think.

Toronto, as discussed above, plays Texas this weekend in Arlington, and unless there’s much stumbling from the other contenders as well this weekend, whoever loses that series will likely be, if not mathematically eliminated, needing a Hail Mary to make the postseason.

Toronto then plays three in Baltimore Monday through Wednesday, is off Thursday, and finishes the season at home against Cincinnati. Toronto holds the tiebreaker advantage over Baltimore and Cleveland, lost their season series to Texas and the White Sox, and split their series with Houston, as far as potential Wild Card tiebreaker scenarios go.

Baltimore is three games back, making them a very long shot right now. They currently hold the tiebreaker advantage over Houston and the White Sox, with Texas and Cleveland holding the tiebreaker advantage over the O’s. The Jays would have the tiebreaker advantage over Baltimore unless the Orioles sweep the Jays next week.

The Orioles have three games at home this weekend against the Brewers, play Toronto Monday to Wednesday at home as discussed above, then play three at Yankee Stadium to finish out the season, making theirs the most difficult schedule of the remaining teams.

Got all that? Good. Hopefully, we’ll have reason to re-visit and update all this Monday morning.

Last week, I wrote about Cam Schlittler’s outside case to be AL MVP. Many outlets have since followed my lead, which tickles the old ego, but really the fallout from that story has been more personal. I always try to be someone that is open to changing his mind, open to new information leading to a new belief or value. Thinking about the season Cam’s had, and his potential to receive MVP, has me embracing a new value. I’m breaking up with fWAR.

FanGraphs WAR has been, to this point, the gold standard of single statistics; if you could only have one, it was the one I’d want. Including Statcast’s defensive metrics for position players was critical for me — it’s the best measure we have for something as complex as defense, so including it in the equation is critical. Basing pitcher value on a FIP basis mattered; it’s the best counter of what a pitcher is actually responsible for, and unlike the conventional Internet narrative, FIP does measure what actually happened. It measures your performance based on strikeouts, walks and home runs. Those things happened!

But Cam Schlittler has a 1.95 ERA, and bWAR starts by taking runs allowed and working backwards from there. By that metric, Cam is the third-best player in all of baseball, second-best pitcher behind Cristopher Sánchez, more than a full win ahead of those immoral hurlers Jacob Misiorowski and Dylan Cease.

Take Cam’s last three starts, this madcap September where he’s worked 21.0 innings. Yes they’ve come against the Angels, Rockies and Mets but I don’t care about that right now, I care about the 0.86 ERA in that stretch. Those three outings have built some distance between himself and Cease for the Cy Young award, but here’s the thing with FIP. Cam’s so good down the stretch that the only thing that can really get in his way is Cam himself — the sometimes-questionable Yankee defense can’t let him down if he strikes out 32 percent of men he faces.

Still, the two home runs and two walks means Schlittler’s FIP over those three starts is 2.05. Now 2.05 is an excellent FIP, Bob Gibson himself had only one season with a FIP lower than that. Still, back-of-the-envelope math tells us that 0.86 is better than 2.05, and has contributed to more of Cam’s bWAR lead than his fWAR lead.

They say it’s better to have loved and lost than to never have loved at all, but I don’t even feel like I’m losing anything. bWAR captures perhaps the most important thing about a singular Yankee season, that Cam Schlittler is the best pitcher in the AL and just a hair off the best pitcher in the game itself. fWAR is dead, long live bWAR.

There are times in a game when a manager must make a decision. The first one comes prior the game when he makes his rounds around the roster, determining the batting order and defensive alignment for the game. Is Kyle Schwarber going to be DHing today or will help be more useful grabbing his first baseman’s mitt and giving Alec Bohm a day off? Is this the day where Edmundo Sosa gets onto the field as a substitute for one of the infielders? This is one of the first of many that Don Mattingly has to make.

The next few are more inconsequential. What will he eat, which non uniform top will he wear in the dugout, simple, tedious decisions that really have no bearing on the game outside of whatever superstition he has about what lies ahead. He’ll know the starting pitcher well ahead of time, so that’s really nothing that needs to concern him outside of a possible need to scratch the starter due to injury.

One other thing that might be on his pregame checklist is a rundown of the bullpen members to determine who is available for the evening and who is down. Should one of those relievers throw for two or more consecutive games, chances are that he is not going to pitch the game that night. Rob Thomson had his own faults about him when it came to the actual managing of a baseball game, but his ability to back off of relievers when he had to and push when necessary was one of his strengths.

Mattingly is a near butcher when it comes to his bullpen. Not so much of his usage of any one pitcher in particular. This day and age of available data and information about each and every little thing about a player’s health dictates that they be smart about who is to be used on a given day and who is not. Gone are the days of Joe Torre signaling for Jeff Nelson and Mike Stanton every day in order to get out of jams. Instead, the manager of today’s game needs to make sure that he is using all members of his bullpen in order to maneuver the 27 outs he needs to accrue to win a game.

The way in which Mattingly has put wear and tear on the members of his bullpen is different. There isn’t any kind of statistic to track this, but rather more of a hunch and feeling that there is no manager in today’s game that gets his relievers warmed up only to not use them in a game more often than what Don Mattingly does. It’s not something that is just limited to one person noting it, it’s something that other people closer to the team have seen.

The Phillies have run their bullpen in a different way since Mattingly became interim manager in late April. Anecdotally, they have warmed up more relievers this season without using them in a game. Several of the team’s relievers attested to that dynamic but downplayed it. No one will blame the bullpen’s inconsistent performances on how it’s been managed.

But it’s worth wondering about.

I’m sure the players are going to downplay it now since the season is ongoing and no one wants to rock the boat, but constantly seeing someone warming in the bullpen, only to see them not appear in a game, it has to start to wear on a pitcher. It’s not the same as actual game usage as there is less stress in just warming up. However, it’s still a pitcher throwing and it’s still his getting used to pitching in live action. This late in the season, it looks like it is starting to cost the team dearly.

Jonathan Bowlan has struggled lately. Giving up runs in his previous four games prior to pitching on Thursday evening, his insertion into a tight game was somewhat surprising given the need for the Phillies to take the game. What was even more surprising was that Mattingly had Alex McFarlane warming up in the seventh inning, ready to come in if Aaron Nola ran into trouble. Since that trouble never arrived, McFarlane was then sat down in favor of Bowlan. However, as he continued through the eighth inning, Bowlan ended up needing to leave due to a groin injury. Tim Mayza finished the inning before Jhoan Duran finished the game, meaning McFarlane was heated up once again, only to not be used.

How often has this happened in the season under the watch of Don Mattingly?

Bowlan was someone he did this to earlier in the year. As one of the more reliable members of the bullpen for much of the season, he started gaining more and more chances to pitch in higher leverage situations. Therefore, he was warmed up again and again. Now, as the season winds down and Bowlan starts to lose steam, one has to wonder if the combination between his actual appearances on the mound this year and the number of times that he has been warmed up to not be actually used in the game (the baseball term for this is “dry humping”, but we will use a little more tact) has to be connected to his late season struggles. True, he’s never thrown this many innings in a season before, innings that have increasingly gone up in stress, but his manager has not helped him at all by continually making him throw even if he wasn’t going to appear in a game.

As previously stated, one of Rob Thomson’s strengths was that if a pitcher was down in his bullpen, he was down. He wasn’t going to pitch in the game, he wasn’t going to warm up, nothing. Once the Phillies were in the playoffs, the relievers looked fresher and more ready to perform when called upon. That has rarely, if ever, been the case under Mattingly. What we’re seeing instead is pitchers starting to get pushed to an extreme they have not been ready for. We can see that there are really only four, maybe five pitchers that Mattingly trusts – Duran, Bowlan, McFarlane, Jose Alvarado and maybe Tim Mayza. Constantly getting those guys up only to not use them in a game is not giving them the recovery time that they require. Other arms are going to have to step up and deliver as the season winds to a close.

Therein lies the rub. Mattingly only has a bit of trust in those five relievers, the other five of the staff be damned. Should he continue warming up and using the same guys, he’s going to have a problem getting to October baseball, let alone winning anything there. There is also the danger of pushing these guys closer to injury than they maybe would have if they were used in a more proper manner. Was the injury to Bowlan something that could have been avoided, letting his body heal properly by avoiding his getting heated up when he wasn’t going to come into a game in the first place? We’ll never know.

But please, Donnie.

There are important games coming.

Stop killing the relievers anymore than you already have.

The Washington Nationals will head to St. Louis for a three-game weekend series after splitting a short two-game set against the Philadelphia Phillies. Washington took the opener 6-3 behind a pinch-hit three-run home run from Daylen Lile, but the offense went quiet in Wednesday’s 3-0 loss. The Nationals enter the weekend at 71-82 and have officially secured their seventh straight losing season, but they have still won four of their last five games after sweeping the Angels and splitting with Philadelphia.

The Cardinals enter the series at 75-78 and sit fourth in the NL Central. St. Louis is a game away from being eliminated from playoff contention and is coming off a series loss to the San Francisco Giants. However, the Cardinals have plenty of young talent worth watching, including Jordan Walker, JJ Wetherholt, and rookie catcher Leo Bernal. Alec Burleson has been the biggest threat in the lineup, leading the National League with 109 RBIs, while Wetherholt recently returned from the injured list. With both teams looking toward 2027, this series will give several young players another opportunity to make an impression before the season comes to an end.

Game One – Friday, 8:15 PM ET

WSH: Cade Cavalli, RHP (12-5, 3.12 ERA)

Cavalli will take the mound for the Nationals in the series opener after another strong outing against the Angels. He allowed two runs on three hits over six innings while striking out nine, keeping Washington in the game before the offense rallied late for a 4-3 win. Cavalli has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 29 of his 31 starts this season and has established himself as the clear ace of the Nationals’ rotation.

STL: Kyle Leahy, RHP (10-4, 3.33 ERA)

Leahy will make his second straight shortened start as the Cardinals continue to manage his workload late in the season. He threw three scoreless innings against the White Sox in his last appearance, allowing two hits and striking out four without issuing a walk. Leahy has been one of St. Louis’ most consistent pitchers this season, but the Nationals should see the Cardinals’ bullpen early in the series opener.

Game Two – Saturday, 7:15 PM ET

WSH: Andrew Alvarez, LHP (2-6, 3.35 ERA)

Alvarez is coming off the best start of his young major league career. The left-hander held the Angels scoreless over seven innings, allowing only one hit while striking out a career-high eight. Alvarez has quietly become one of the Nationals’ most reliable starters, posting a 2.44 ERA over his last eight outings and making a strong case for a spot in the 2027 rotation.

STL: Michael McGreevy, RHP (7-9, 3.83 ERA)

McGreevy earned the win in his last start after holding the White Sox to one run over six innings. The right-hander has settled into the Cardinals’ rotation after an inconsistent start to the season and will look to build off one of his better recent outings. Washington will need to do a better job cashing in on its opportunities after being shut out and leaving seven runners on base Wednesday night.

Game Three – Sunday, 2:15 PM ET

WSH: Jake Irvin, RHP (2-9, 5.51 ERA)

Irvin will return to the mound after allowing three runs on eight hits and two walks over 5⅔ innings against the Padres in his last start. The right-hander has struggled to find consistency this season, but he will look to finish the year on a positive note with a strong performance in the series finale.

STL: Quinn Mathews, LHP (2-3, 3.62 ERA)

Mathews is lined up to start the finale after delivering the best outing of his young career against the Giants. The rookie left-hander allowed one run on four hits across 6⅔ innings while striking out a career-high eight. Mathews did not allow his first hit until the sixth inning and has quickly become one of the most interesting young arms in the Cardinals’ rotation.

We have a three game series with the Rangers starting tonight.

The Jays (and Rangers) are two games back of the last Wild Card spot held by the Guardians (who are tied with the White Sox for the top of the AL West, so catching with either would work, though the White Sox hold the tiebreaker over the Jays, where the Jays hold the tiebreaker with the Guardians). The Jays also have to finish ahead of the Rangers.

Starting pitchers:

• Tonight, 8:00 Eastern: Dylan Cease (11-5, 2.38) vs Kumar Rocker (5-11, 4.54).
• Saturday, 7:00 Eastern: José Soriano (12-7, 3.56) vs Cal Quantrill (9-5, 2.90).
• Sunday, 2:30 Eastern: TBD, some sort of bullpen day with Spencer Arrighetti (8-9, 4.91) vs. Jacob deGrom (11-9, 3.79).

I’m still not a fan of bullpen days.

The Rangers are 11th in the AL in runs per game at 4.17 (Jays are last at 4.05).

And the Rangers are also 11th in the AL in runs allowed per game at 4.30 (Jays are 6th at 3.92).

The Rangers are 8-7 in September and are just off a four-game win streak (they lost yesterday to the Red Sox).

Unlike the Tigers, the Rangers record (76-77) is much better than than Pythagorean record (72-81).

Tigers top hitters:

• Ezequiel Durán, who has played every position other than catcher, this year, hitting .268/.329/.436 with 17 home runs, 43 walks and 131 k with a 4.4 bWAR. He’s an excellent defensive player at short and second.
• Corey Seager, SS. .234/.325/.434 with 18 home runs, 44 walks and 92 strikeouts, 3.1 bWAR.
• Jake Burger, 1B. .233/.305/.424 with 26 home runs, 52 walks and 156 strikeouts, 2.0 bWAR.
• Josh Jung, 3B. .298/.361/.449 with 10 home runs, 33 walks and 73 strikeouts, 1.8 bWAR.
• Joc Pederson, DH. .235/.329/.487 with 26 home runs, 49 walks and 102 strikeouts, 1.7 bWAR.

Bullpen:

• Jacob Latz: 2.11 ERA, 30 saves, 4 blown. Batters are hitting .146/.218/.270 against him.
• Tyler Alexander: 3.33, 4 saves, 2 blown, 13 holds. Batters are hitting .254/.315/.338 against him.
• Jakob Junis: 3.66 ERA, 6 saves, 2 blown, 18 holds. Batters are hitting .244/.309/.338 against him.
• Robby Ahlstrom: A lefty. 6.08, 7 holds, 1 blown. Batters are hitting .264/.346/.465 against him.

The Jays, pretty much, have to win this series, if they are going to make the playoffs.