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The week that started out not so hot ended up being a solid week for the Phillies, the team going 4-2 against the Mariners and Angels. Now they head on to Arizona for a big wild card showdown.

Three up

Bryce Harper – I think one day, we’ll appreciate a little more the dedication Harper has shown to getting on base this season. We know all about the wanting to walk more when he talked about preseason goals, but a lot of times, that’s just talk. Seeing him put that into practice has been impressive. This past week, he continued his on base streak, getting it to 32 games, the longest of his career. Kind of funny how his getting on base has coincided with the team winning.

Edmundo Sosa – Listen, the man only got four plate appearances this week. Sometimes, with a player that is primarily a bench player, that is going to happen. But Edmundo Sosa made those plate appearances count, including his gigantic home run on Friday night to get the team a win.

I’ll miss Edmundo when he’s gone.

The southpaws – Man, how nice is it that the team has two starters like Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo atop the rotation? Yes, there was some concern about Zack Wheeler and how he had fallen off in his recent run of starts, Sunday not included. But the two southpaws leading the way is a nice thing to have, particularly once the playoffs are concerned.

Three down

Brandon Marsh – It kinds of stinks that Marsh has fallen off so much since the All-Star break. One could kind of see it coming, that eventually the hitting against left handed pitching was only going to last so long. But he has really lost his way as the season has progressed. It would be nice to have that one more consistent bat in the lineup that he was providing at the beginning of the season.

Zack Wheeler – What else is there to say?

The inner workings of the team – How many times have players been unavailable like Jhoan Duran wasn’t available the other day in a save situation due to a “stomach ailment”? As a parent of children who are a little older now, I can remember those days where the st___ach b_g went around like wild fire (you never name what it is), so maybe that’s being passed around? Seriously, maybe deep clean Citizens Bank Park before they arrive home.

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The San Diego Padres are priced as 59% moneyline favorites tonight against the Cincinnati Reds right-hander Brady Singer. The first pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park.

With Singer struggling and Michael King finding his best lately, my Padres vs Reds predictions confidently back San Diego. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Monday, Aug. 31. 

Who will win Padres vs Reds today: Padres (59%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Michael King gives the San Diego Padres the more trustworthy starting point tonight. The right-hander has compiled a 3.10 xERA over his last two starts while allowing just 0.66 HR/9 and holding opponents to a 22.9% hard-hit rate.

That profile gives him a clear edge over Cincinnati Reds righty Brady Singer, who owns a 5.74 FIP during that same span while allowing 1.54 HR/9 and an alarming 53.8% hard-hit rate.

San Diego has not been in great offensive form, but this matchup still creates value. King’s steadier profile and Singer’s recent contact issues make the Padres the cleaner side.

Play this pick up to 62%.

COVERS INTEL: Singer has also had issues at home this season, posting a 5.57 FIP. On the road, that number sits at 4.76. 

Padres vs Reds Over/Under pick: Under 9.5 (55%)

With the total sitting at 9.5, the Under presents value tonight.

Despite Singer’s recent vulnerability, San Diego isn't in the kind of offensive form where I expect a full-on explosion. Cincinnati’s bullpen has also been poor, but the Padres would likely need to do most of the damage to push this Over.

The Reds have been respectable offensively lately, posting a 115 wRC+ over the last week, but they still draw a tough matchup against King. San Diego’s relief corps is also dealing, with a 3.17 xERA over the last week and minimal home run damage.

This number feels a bit high.

Play this pick up to 60%.

Padres vs Reds home run prediction: Sal Stewart (18%)

Sal Stewart cannot be stopped right now. He's clubbed four home runs in his last six games while posting a .500 ISO during that span. 

Obviously, the matchup here doesn't have a ton of value, but Stewart has a 60% fly-ball rate over the last week, and King has allowed 40% of his contact through the air over his previous two starts. 

The Padres' pen has also given up 1.17 HR/9 in its last 23 frames. Stewart's 25% barrel rate recently strengthens this play. One mistake could leave the yard.

Play up to 20%.

Padres vs Reds market trends

Here is how the trading action is coming in on tonight's Padres vs Reds matchup at Polymarket:

Padres vs Reds weather

Weather at Great American Ball Park looks warm and clear tonight, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures falling from 92°F to 84°F. Rain chances sit at just 2%, and winds ease from about 7 mph to 3 mph. No delay concern, and the heat could slightly help carry.

Padres vs Reds odds

• Moneyline: Padres 59% | Reds 42%
• Run line: Padres -1.5 (46%) | Reds +1.5 (55%)
• Over/Under: Over 9.5 (46%) | Under 9.5 (55%)

Padres vs Reds trend

The Cincinnati Reds have hit the game total Under in 25 of their last 45 home games (+4.50 Units / 9% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Reds.

How to watch Padres vs Reds and game info

Padres vs Reds latest injuries

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Center field is one of those defensive positions where the Kansas City Royals have been blessed to have a long history of excellent players.

Between 1970 and 1990, Amos Otis and Willie Wilson played a combined 24,632.2 innings in center—nearly 90% of all center field innings across that two-decade span. From 1995 to 2004, Carlos Beltran and Johnny Damon combined to play 9,823 innings in center field—nearly 70% of all center field innings in that span. And from 2011 through 2017, Lorenzo Cain and Jarrod Dyson combined to play 7,728 innings—or just above 75% of all available center field innings. In fact, those six players have played 52% of all regular season center field innings in the entire history of the franchise.

And right below some of those titans has been Kyle Isbel, whose 3,672.1 innings in center field ranks seventh-most in Royals history. In his six years with the team, Isbel has been a reliably great defender and has never posted a Wins Above Replacement figure below 0.5, per Fangraphs’ version of the stat.

But though Isbel has been a solid role player, he’s not a permanent option. Setting aside potential collective bargaining agreement shenanigans, Isbel is set to become a free agent.

It’s true that Isbel’s likely $4 million or so salary next year, his final year of arbitration, won’t break the bank. However, at that price, you have to start looking at Isbel’s production with a little more scrutiny. Isbel’s defense is his calling card, but he doesn’t have a lot of other tools. As a baserunner, he’s only good for eight or so stolen bases a year. As a hitter, he doesn’t hit for average, walk much, or crush extra base hits. And he’s also never been a reliably healthy player, either; he’s averaged 109 games per year over the past five seasons, and he’s never played more than 136.

Now, some of that lack of playing time is due to his pretty extreme splits. Against right-handed pitching in his career, he’s hit .243/.290/.383—not great, but serviceable with his defense. Against left-handed pitching, though, he’s hit a rather abysmal .213/.274/.280—a line that you can’t really have in the lineup at all. And so, even when he is healthy, Isbel rides the pine when a lefty starter is on the bump.

All of this means that Isbel is not a smart free agent re-sign option for Kansas City. Somebody will sign him to be what he really is: a platoon- and defense-first fourth outfielder, a very useful bench option. But for Kansas City to re-up on him as the starting center fielder? That’s a risk.

The real question, then, is who Isbel’s successor, or successors, might be. I’ve discussed Tyler Tolbert before, who might be a late bloomer and could be a platoon option in center field. But frankly, the Royals’ best option to fill in for Isbel is probably Carson Roccaforte. Roccaforte won the organization’s Frank White Defensive Player of the Year award last year for his work in center field, his second consecutive season winning the award.

There’s also the fact that Roccaforte has grown into some rather impressive power. After hitting 18 home runs last year, he’s hit 32 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A this year.

But Roccaforte does come with some downside—namely, that he strikes out 30% of the time, a figure that could rise in the big leagues.

The other option in Triple-A is the forgotten one: Gavin Cross, the onetime top-10 draft pick who has hit .314/.360/.579 since mid-May in Omaha. Could Cross run in the Royals extensive centerfield grass as a guy who has played mostly corner outfield as a pro? Maybe—but then again, the Royals still have Isbel next year, and in 2030 they’d have their new and ostensibly smaller stadium.

What’s particularly interesting here is that the looming CBA lockout and the Royals’ recent winning streak have thrown a wrench into what could be a very interesting trial period for one of Roccaforte or Cross in September. Of course, the Royals also have another option: getting an outfielder in free agency. But it seems more likely that what money exists should be spent on pitching and maybe a corner outfield bat. And who knows; maybe Isbel will get one last hurrah next year as the starting center fielder. David DeJesus ranks sixth with 4,276.2 career center field innings for the Royals. That number is in range for Isbel to surpass.

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It's the unofficial last week of summer, which might be depressing, but cashing some dingers and MLB player props is the medicine I need on a rainy Monday.

Carson Benge might be lefty-vs-lefty, but the reverse splits are showing a lot of value. Staying with the lefty-vs-lefty theme, Pete Crow-Armstrong's price is a green light today at a windy Wrigley Field.

These are my favorite home run props for Monday, Aug. 31. 

MLB home run props for today

For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Player to hit a HR	Chance
Carson Benge	11%
Pete Crow-Armstrong	25%

Home run prediction: Carson Benge (11%)

Lefty Ian Seymour is a sneaky home run target today, and I'm looking at a lefty-on-lefty matchup that is much better on paper than most would assume.

Seymour is a reverse-splits pitcher, as lefties hit him for a better average and more power. Left-handed hitters go yard once every 15.8 batters against him, compared to once every 32 right-handed batters.

That's a great home run rate for left-handed hitters, who are almost always priced longer when facing southpaws. Finding reverse splits on either a pitcher or hitter can create value, and in this case, we have both.

Carson Benge is the home run target at a price more than 200 points higher than his average number. He's a left-handed bat who hits dingers against right-handers once every 36.4 batters, but that rate jumps to once every 28 batters against lefties this year.

His slugging splits are fairly even, and he might be the second-best hitter in the lineup over the last two weeks, with two homers.

It's a lefty-lefty matchup with a lot of value at this price once you look under the hood, even if the surface-level matchup is priced heavily in favor of the pitcher.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Rays.TV, SNY

Home run prediction: Pete Crow-Armstrong (25%)

It's another day of backing Pete Crow-Armstrong to go yard, and things are aligning for Monday.

Kyle Harrison's sub-3.00 ERA makes this look like a tough matchup on paper, but he gives up homers and has had multiple three-homer games.

The lefty-on-lefty matchup is another spot where the batter has no issues with the splits. PCA has better power numbers against left-handed pitching, while Harrison actually allows a worse average to left-handed hitters.

Crow-Armstrong has moved from 67% to 94% in the NL MVP odds because he's still raking, with a league-leading 10 homers over the last two weeks. Play to 29%.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Marquee Sports Network, Brewers.TV

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1926
In a twin bill at Detroit, White Sox infielder Ray Morehart tied a major-league record in cranking out nine hits in 10 at-bats! Morehart went 5-for-6 in the opener, and then capped it off with a 4-for-4 performance in the nightcap. Two of his nine hits were doubles.

Morehead’s five hits fueled a 19-2 win in the opener, which remains tied for the 12th-most runs in a game in franchise history and the 17-run win remains tied for third-biggest ever. The White Sox lost the nightcap, 7-6.

1935
In the highlight of his career, White Sox rookie pitcher Vern Kennedy threw a 5-0 no-hitter against Cleveland, at Comiskey Park. The no-hitter was saved in the ninth inning when with one out, outfielder Al Simmons made a diving catch on a ball. 

Kennedy didn’t even realize he had a no-hitter going until the final out!

Kennedy also had the game-breaking hit in the contest, a bases-loaded triple, driving in three runs in the sixth inning. It was also the first no-hitter in the American League since 1931.

Kennedy’s four walks against just five strikeouts gave him a relatively low game score of 88, which ranks in a tie for 121st in all White Sox starts in history.

1964
White Sox catcher Jerry McNertney was part of the cover shot for Sports Illustrated, in one of the few black-and-white covers ever done by the magazine.

1970
With the White Sox approaching the end of their worst season in franchise history, GM Ed Short was fired after nine years on the job. Short made brilliant offseason deals in 1963 and 1964 to net the club players like Hoyt Wilhelm, Pete Ward, Tommy John and Tommie Agee, but starting in 1968 his moves backfired and lost the club players like Agee, Tommy McCraw, Don Buford and Bob Locker without getting anything substantial in return.

Shorthad started his White Sox career in 1950, when he was hired to serve as publicity director and then later as traveling secretary. In an almost equally-strange move as promoting your PR man/traveling secretary as GM, the White Sox named as Short’s replacement Stu Holcomb, at the time the GM of the Chicago Mustangs NASL soccer club and previously a basketball and football coach.

In just two days, the housecleaning continued as Holcomb told manager Don Gutteridge he would not be brought back for 1971, with Gutteridge resigning as a result. Scouts and other front-office personnel also would be gone, in a massive house cleaning. 

1993
Outfielder Tim Raines became only the second White Sox player to homer from both sides of the plate in the same game. He did it at Yankee Stadium, as he victimized Sterling Hitchcock and Rich Monteleone to help the Sox coast to an 11-3 win. Raines went 3-for-5, with two runs and four RBIs. His home runs came in the fifth and ninth innings. Raines also stole his 744th career base, placing him fourth on the all-time list.

Also in this game, Frank Thomas had a homer that counted as two milestones. It was his 37th of the season, tying Dick Allen and Carlton Fisk for most in team history, as well as Big Frank’s 100th career round-tripper.

2010
Edwin Jackson stopped just one out short of a complete-game, 4-3 win at Cleveland. And in striking out 11, he became just the third White Sox pitcher to punch out double-figure batters in three consecutive games (Ed Walsh, 1910, and Floyd Bannister, 1985).

The win also completed a miraculous career start in Chicago for Jackson, who after being acquired from the Arizona Diamondbacks on July 30 went 3-2 with a 1.47 ERA and 45 strikeouts against eight walks in five starts.

2023
After the firing of both Ken Williams and Rick Hahn, White Sox fans were hoping that owner Jerry Reinsdorf would go out and bring in a top-notch executive from a consistently-winning organization to rebuild the franchise, which sank to new lows both on and off the field.

Instead, Reinsdorf decided to promote former Sox infielder Chris Getz to GM.

Getz had been in charge of the White Sox minor league operation for the past seven years, an operation that usually ranked near the bottom in MLB rankings and failed to develop anyone outside of a few high draft picks to produce for the big league club.

White Sox fans, and even many in the mainstream media, were highly critical of the decision — but not completely shocked, given Reinsdorf’s history.

2024
As August — not September, not October — came to a close, the White Sox tied their all-time franchise losses mark with a 5-3 loss to the Mets. Back-to-back, two-out homers in the first inning ensured that New York would never trail in the game.

The loss dropped the White Sox to 31-106, tying the 1970 White Sox for most losses in team history. They had 25 games left to break the record.

2025
In the sixth inning of a 3-2 White Sox win over the Yankees in Chicago, rookie Colson Montgomery hammered a slider from Luis Gil to center field for a solo home run.

The 412-foot blast for Montgomery gave the shortstop 10 homers in August. That total tied José Abreu in April and June 2014 for the most by a rookie in a calendar month in White Sox history. On the season, it was No. 15 for the former first round draft pick.

After the Yanks bludgeoned Boston Sunday, it was time to scoreboard watch. Most notably, could the Padres do us all a solid and knock off the Rays? To the surprise of absolutely no one, the answer was no. So while the Yankees put more distance between themselves and Boston and clinched the season series between the two eternal rivals, there was no ground gained on Tampa.

Elsewhere, a former Baby Bomber achieved a career milestone while a future Hall of Fame hurler further stated his Cooperstown case.

Tampa Bay Rays (82-54) 5, San Diego Padres (72-65) 4 (F/11)

Bloody Devil Magic. The Padres looked to have this game wrapped up, with a ninth-inning lead and Mason Miller on the mound. Since joining the Padres last season, the All-World closer had surrendered precisely two home runs over 79.2 frames as he took the mound Sunday. So, of course he promptly gave up a game-tying two-run blast to Johnny DeLuca. But hold on. This was no run of the mill home run.

As I said, bloody Devil Magic. After a scoreless 10th, the Dads took a lead in the 11th. But it was all for naught. A DeLuca ground ball to Xander Bogaerts ended in an error and re-tied the game. Then, former Yankee farmhand Jorge Mateo ended it with a walk-off single.

Other Games

Chicago White Sox (72-64) 1, Minnesota Twins (65-72) 5: For all intents and purposes, this one was over before the opening frame came to a close. Minnesota plated three in the home first, more than enough for starter Zebby Matthews. Matthews took a shutout into the ninth before the Pale Hose managed to scrape across a run. Matthews’ day ended with 8.1 innings allowing that lone run. That continues a strong run, as he has pitched to a 3.21 ERA in his last seven outings, averaging 6 IP/start.

Houston Astros (69-68) 6, New York Mets (61-76) 3: LaMonte Wade, Jr. was Sunday’s hero for Houston. His pinch-hit two-run home run gave the Astros a lead they never surrendered. The victory keeps H-town two games ahead of their intra-state rival Rangers.

Texas Rangers (67-70) 7, Milwaukee Brewers (85-52) 4: Texas won Sunday to stay in the mix in the AL West and Wild-Card races. But for Yankees fans, Gary Sánchez was the story. The Kraken clubbed the 200th home run of his career, 138 of which came in pinstripes, in defeat. Sigh. We’ll always have the second half of 2016.

Cleveland Guardians (69-68) 11, Kansas City Royals (62-76) 1: Welcome to the José Ramírez Show. The Cleveland third baseman has been mired in his worst offensive season since 2015. Not Sunday, however. Ramírez homered and drove in four as the 3-4-5 batters for Cleveland combined to plate 10 runs.

Baltimore Orioles (68-69) 8, Athletics (53-84) 5: Gunnar Henderson has had a rough 2026. But on Sunday, he looked every bit the young superstar. Four hits, two of which left the yard, led to three runs scored and five batted in as the Os swept the As.

Toronto Blue Jays (68-70) 7, Seattle Mariners (64-73) 0: For one day at least, Max Scherzer was “Mad Max” again. While tossing seven frames of one-hit shutout ball, Scherzer punched out 10. The last of those moved him ahead of Gaylord Perry for ninth all-time on the career strikeout list.

Well, these were supposed to be the three easiest of the 13 games in 13 days. That doesn’t mean the Cubs can’t recover and have a good stretch of games. It’s just that logistically speaking, you’d have wanted to grab at least two and hopefully three while rested and against the team drifting in the wrong direction as the season winds down. Instead, the Cubs only got one. They waived 2020 First Round pick Ed Howard over the weekend and so what was supposed to be a celebration of Jon Lester and Jody Davis and the 150th Anniversary Cubs stars, it ended up rather bittersweet.

If your name was Pete Crow-Armstrong, you had a crazy good weekend. Sometimes we throw around phrases like coming out party on the big stage. The thing is, PCA announced his presence last year and then started shouting from the rooftops months ago. This crazy stretch is just shy of a half season of games. I don’t know that we are there, but at some point in time, it isn’t a hot stretch but a level up achieved. He led off another game with a homer. The Reds didn’t read his script for the weekend, but for the second time in recent memory he led off the game with a homer and then came back and homered again in the ninth. Unfortunately, the one in this one was a consolation prize and not the walk-off that the last one was.

In all he hit five home runs this weekend. That’s pretty crazy. You are in a subset of a subset with five homers over two games. I well remember players like Ryne Sandberg, Sammy Sosa and Alfonso Soriano slowly drifting from guys who stole more bases than hit homers to the reverse. Naturally, I would then expect that day would come for Pete. I hadn’t considered before this weekend the possibility that he might have more homers than steals this year. He’s now leading 38 homers to 32 steals. It’s far from over, but it is very possible he could end up with more homers than steals already. There are 25 games left in the season. In the 25 games leading up to tonight he stole six bases. I’d actually suggest at this point it is very likely he finishes with more homers.

Aside from Pete, the offense created a bit of traffic (nine hits and a walk) but did not sustain any offense when Pete wasn’t homering. The pitching wasn’t good, particularly Shōta Imanaga. Once again, the Cubs have an issue to deal with. I’m not sure they can keep running him out there. He’d had a really nice stretch of games, but it just isn’t working. Once again I’d rather see Javier Assad or Colin Rea in that spot. That’s not an easy decision to make. He looks healthy, so you’d just be removing him from the rotation. They gave him an extra rest day where they had an off day to work with, but he didn’t really look any better. Maybe you let him pitch again Saturday in Miami. But I’m not sure how you then have him pitch again the following Wednesday. Things now look like they are going to get tight.

This team, man. I think one of my most repeated tropes through the years, though not at any point this year, is Lucy moving the football and Charlie ending up on his back trying to figure out what went wrong. I think I’m now on the ground seeing little stars swirling around my head. Everything felt like it was under control, I started to really believe in this team and then we got rug pulled. Again.

No fun.

Three Positives:

• Pete is a monster. Two more homers. Dare to dream? He’s two homers shy of Kyle Schwarber for the major league lead. Second in runs. Seventh in hits. Second in triples. Tied for sixth in RBI. Fifth in steals. 12th in on base. Second in slugging. Second in OPS. Those are all MLB ranks, not NL. Just an insane season.
• Ian Happ had two singles and a walk. He scored twice. He and Pete scored four of the five runs.
• Caleb threw a perfect inning with three strikeouts. There were very few clean innings for Cub pitching all weekend long.

Game 137, August 30: Reds 7, Cubs 5 (77-60)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Ian Happ (.132). 2-3, BB, 2 R
• Hero: Alex Bregman (.067). 1-4, 2B, R
• Sidekick: Nico Hoerner (.035). 2-3, SF, RBI

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Shōta Imanaga (-.458). 5 IP, 8 H, BB, 6 R, 4 K (L 8-10)
• Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.091). 0-5
• Kid: Tyrone Taylor (-.074). 0-2

Note: Imanaga’s game score preliminarily looks like the 10th worst WPA game score of the year for the Cubs.

WPA Play of the Game: Hector Rodriguez’ three-run homer with two outs in the fourth gave the Reds a one-run lead. (.337)

Cubs Play of the Game: Pete’s lead-off homer. (.103)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 136 Winner: Pete Crow-Armstrong received 75 of 76 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Pete Crow-Armstrong +29
• Alex Bregman +24
• Ben Brown +13.5
• Javier Assad +12
• Carson Kelly +10.5
• Edward Cabrera -12.5
• Jameson Taillon -13
• Nico Hoerner -14
• Dansby Swanson -17
• Caleb Thielbar -18.5

Scoreboard Watching: Braves win (five ahead of Cubs). Dodgers win (five up). Padres lose (five back). Brewers lose (eight up). Phillies win (Cub lead is now tiebreaker only).

Up Next: Those Brewers come to Wrigley field after dropping Sunday’s game against the Rangers in Milwaukee. Game one of a four game set and game four of 13 straight games. Clay Holmes (5-6, 2.26) starts for the Cubs. He’s been exceptional when healthy, including a 1-2, 1.96 mark with the Cubs in four starts.

25-year-old lefty Kyle Harrison (10-3, 2.79) starts for the Brewers. He’s having a terrific season for the Brewers. He threw seven scoreless in a start at Wrigley in May. He’s allowed only two runs in 12 innings of work against the Cubs.

It doesn’t get any easier here.

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Another Monday is here, but the start of the week isn't so bad when there's a packed slate on the diamond. 

Our experts have found plenty of MLB picks with value at Polymarket, highlighted by the Phillies and Brewers winning on Aug. 31.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Probability
Josh Inglis: Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Over 8.5	49%
Jon Metler: Brewers ML	50%
Dustin Saracini: Rays -1.5	43%
Joe Osborne: Phillies ML	53%

Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Over 8.5

Price: 49¢ at Polymarket

There are still some flat 8s on the board this morning for a game projected for nearly 10 total runs, with a fair probability of 56% on the 8.5-run total.

Aaron Nola is in decent form over his last four starts, but he still gives up dingers at one of the highest rates in baseball and ranks among the Bottom 20 MLB starters in barrel rate (Barrel%) since June 1.

On the other side, Brandon Pfaadt is a perfect fade candidate. He's coming off his biggest workload of the season at 103 pitches, and his numbers are starting to regress toward his expected numbers after some unsustainable production.

He's allowed four home runs over his last two starts, with nine runs allowed. Looking at the later innings, both clubs sport bullpen ERAs that rank in the bottom half of the league.

This SP matchup is one where the total should not be 8.0, which is why the market is moving that way.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: NBCS-Philadelphia, Diamondbacks.TV

Jon Metler's expert pick: Brewers moneyline

Price: 50¢ at Polymarket

This is obviously a critical game and series for both teams. The Brewers don't want to give the Cubs any life in the NL Central race, while Chicago is running out of time to close the gap on Milwaukee — which currently holds an eight-game lead. 

This wager comes down to the depth and swing-and-miss ability of the Brewers' bullpen. Both teams are likely to manage this game aggressively, and with Kyle Harrison and Clay Holmes on the mound, I don't expect either starter to work deep. 

That gives Milwaukee an edge, as I trust its bullpen to win the middle-relief innings and bridge the gap to the back end. The Brewers are trading at 50 cents on Polymarket, but I make them closer to a 53-cent favorite, giving us enough of an edge to hit the button on Milwaukee.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Marquee, Brewers.TV

Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Rays -1.5

Price: 43¢ at Polymarket

I just can't quit the Rays — and for good reason. They're the fourth-best cover team in baseball (55.2%) and should have no problem with the Mets today.  

Robert Stock has been as shaky as they come for New York, allowing seven earned runs off 10 hits against the Brewers his last time on the mound.

With an xERA of 4.90 this year, he'll struggle to keep one of the most potent offenses in baseball off the basepaths. A struggling starter with a taxed bullpen behind him usually isn't a recipe for success.

I'll take Tampa to dominate from first pitch, and I'm playing this up to 48 cents at Polymarket.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: SNY, Rays.TV

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Phillies moneyline

Price: 53¢ at Polymarket

Aaron Nola has found his form at the right time of the season. He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts while posting at least seven strikeouts in four straight. 

The same can’t be said for Brandon Pfaadt, who's been knocked around for nine earned runs over his last two outings. Philadelphia also holds clear hitting and bullpen advantages.

Over the past two weeks, the Phillies rank seventh in OPS against righties compared to 21st for Arizona, while the bullpens rank eighth and 23rd in ERA.

The Phillies look like undervalued favorites here and are well positioned to extend their 13-2 tear in pursuit of the top wild-card spot.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: NBCS-Philadelphia, Diamondbacks.TV

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New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge is accompanying his teammates on a six-game West Coast road trip this week, fueling speculation he could be nearing a return to the active roster.

The three-time AL MVP hasn't played in three months due to a stress fracture in his rib, but the possibility that he soon could take part in on-field activities would be a major step forward in the recovery process.

“I’m sure it will be ramped up and a lot more involved,” manager Aaron Boone said before Sunday's game against the Boston Red Sox. “Hopefully out there, [he will] start to get on velocity and things like that. He’ll be part of the pregame stuff and just get more entrenched into getting ready to come back.”

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It's a loaded 12-game slate across the big leagues tonight, and I've pinpointed my best MLB moneyline picks for every single contest. 

See it all in my MLB picks for Monday, Aug. 31. 

MLB moneyline picks for Aug. 31

For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Matchup	Pick
Giants vs Braves	40%
Mets vs Rays	62%
Padres vs Reds	58%
Marlins vs Nationals	52%
Mariners vs Red Sox	61%
Tigers vs Twins	56%
Brewers vs Cubs	51%
A's vs Rangers	68%
White Sox vs Astros	46%
Orioles vs Rockies	45%
Yankees vs Angels	55%
Phillies vs Diamondbacks	54%

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of Aug. 31.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for August 31

Giants vs Braves: Giants

Giants win probability: 40%

The Giants are a heavy underdog here at 40%, but they have the better pitching profile. Anthony Molina tossed 4 1/3 scoreless innings in his first outing since being traded, and while he doesn't pitch deep into games, the Giants' pen is in good form. They own a 3.77 xERA over the last week with minimal walks and homers. 

Bryce Elder, meanwhile, owns an FIP over four at home, and the Atlanta Braves starter has posted a 4.03 xERA over the last month. The Giants have a 111 wRC+ in their last seven games, and Elder is the more vulnerable arm here. 

San Fran wins the opener. 

Mets vs Rays: Rays

Rays win probability: 62%

The Rays send Ian Seymour to the mound tonight, and while he's had some home run troubles lately, the left-hander faces a Mets lineup in awful form. They have a 69 wRC+ in the last week and just a .111 ISO. Seymour has a respectable 4.13 FIP at home as well. 

New York counters with Robert Stock. He's posted a 5.03 xERA across his previous five starts with serious command issues. Tampa is coming alive offensively lately with a 99 wRC+ in its previous six contests, and a 109 mark at home this season. 

The Rays have the edge, but if this number moves, resort to the run line. 

Padres vs Reds: Padres

Padres win probability: 58%

Michael King is the far more consistent arm right now. The righty has compiled a 3.10 xERA over his last two starts while giving up just 0.66 HR/9 and limiting opponents to a 22.9% hard-hit rate. 

Brady Singer owns a 5.74 FIP during that same span, allowing 1.54 HR/9 and a troubling 53.8% hard-hit rate. San Diego isn't in great offensive form, but this matchup screams value, and King has been reliable lately. 

Take the Padres, but also lock in the run line if this moves at all. 

Marlins vs Nationals: Marlins

Marlins win probability: 52%

The Marlins have a better pitching setup tonight. Ryan Gusto hasn't allowed a single earned run over his last two starts, and while he doesn't pitch very deep into games, Miami's pen has held its own lately. 

Will Dion takes the hill as an opener for the Nationals, and he has a 6.38 FIP over his previous three outings with home run issues. Washington's relief corps is also struggling with a 6.55 FIP across the last week. 

Miami has the edge. 

Mariners vs Red Sox: Red Sox

Red Sox win probability: 61%

We're looking at two ball clubs in horrendous offensive shape at the moment, but Payton Tolle's recent success is a clear advantage for the Red Sox. He sports a 2.99 FIP in his last two starts, and the Mariners struggle against left-handers, posting an 87 wRC+ this season. 

George Kirby's underlying metrics suggest he's been much better than the numbers suggest, but the righty has still allowed 12 earned runs over his previous three outings. 

Boston's lineup should capitalize. 

Tigers vs Twins: Twins

Twins win probability: 56%

The Tigers have been literally invisible offensively. They've scored only nine runs in their last six contests, posting a 19 wRC+. Taj Bradley is dealing, collecting a 2.44 FIP in his last two outings with minimal home run damage. 

Jackson Jobe has also pitched well, but I simply cannot overlook Detroit's struggles at the dish, and the Twins are swinging it a mile better. 

Brewers vs Cubs: Cubs

Cubs win probability: 51%

The Cubbies get a tough matchup against Kyle Harrison tonight, but they're a force against left-handers, posting a 126 wRC+ this season. Chicago is also raking at the moment with a 138 wRC+ in the last week. 

Clay Holmes has held his own since coming over via trade, posting a 3.08 FIP in his last 12 1/3 frames. The Brewers are swinging it well as well, but they're not as efficient on the road. 

A's vs Rangers: Rangers

Rangers win probability: 68%

The Rangers have a ridiculous 141 wRC+ in their last six games, and it helps Jacob deGrom is on the mound. He's limited opponents to a 29.2% hard-hit rate in his previous two starts while collecting a 2.46 FIP. 

Gage Jump has pitched well recently for the Athletics as well, but I refuse to overlook how Texas is swinging it. They are jumping on everything, and deGrom gives the stability. 

White Sox vs Astros: White Sox

White Sox win probability: 46%

The White Sox get to face the vulnerable Peter Lambert tonight, who has an ERA over 10 recently and a 6.15 xERA in his last two outings.

Chicago is producing lately with a 115 wRC+ in the last week, and while Anthony Kay hasn't been great for them over the last couple of weeks, Houston is not swinging it consistently, and it isn't an efficient lineup against left-handed hurlers. 

Orioles vs Rockies: Rockies

Rockies win probability: 45%

It's not often where I'd back the Rockies, but Kyle Bradish's struggles give them a clear opportunity to take advantage tonight. The righty has a 7.89 xERA over his last two starts with major home run issues, and Colorado is in respectable offensive form. 

Baltimore faces Tanner Gordon, who has a 2.48 xERA recently while limiting the long ball. The Orioles are producing lately at the dish, but Bradish's inability to limit hard contact will hurt them early. 

Yankees vs Angels: Yankees

Yankees win probability: 55%

The Yankees are the team in better offensive form, sitting well above the league average in wRC+ lately. While Walbert Urena is throwing the baseball well, he is not untouchable by any means.

Elmer Rodriguez allowed just three earned runs last week in his first start in the big leagues since June, keeping New York in the game. 

With the Angels struggling to string together runs, the Bronx Bombers are the play. 

Phillies vs Diamondbacks: Phillies

Phillies win probability: 54%

Aaron Nola has really started to come into his own in what has been a poor season to his standards. The right-hander sports a 3.49 xERA over the last month, and he'll face a Diamondbacks offense that has posted just a 72 wRC+ in their previous seven games. 

Arizona's Brandon Pfaadt owns an FIP over six in his last two starts while allowing 2.92 HR/9. The Phillies carry a 107 wRC+ over the last two weeks into tonight's matchup. 

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.