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The Cleveland Guardians are priced as avery slim 51% favorite tonight against the Baltimore Orioles, with first pitch scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET at Camden Yards. 

Both starters are in good form right now, but my Guardians vs Orioles predictions target the hosts to pull out a victory at home. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Wednesday, Sept. 9. 

Who will win Guardians vs Orioles today: Orioles (50%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Shane Baz is throwing the ball well for the Baltimore Orioles, limiting home-run damage lately while posting a 3.88 xERA over his last two starts.

Baz also owns an impressive 3.20 FIP at home, and despite scoring nine runs Tuesday, the Cleveland Guardians aren’t exactly flourishing offensively, posting an 83 wRC+ over the last week.

Foster Griffin has held his own, too. His underlying metrics suggest he has pitched better than the recent results indicate, but he has still surrendered five earned runs across his previous two outings.

The O’s aren’t swinging it with much authority overall, but they’ve performed respectably against left-handed pitching, producing a 102 wRC+ this season.

I’ll side with Baltimore at home.

Play this pick up to 55%.

COVERS INTEL: Baz is consistently inducing weak contact, allowing just a 26.5% hard-hit rate over the last two weeks. That's a massive improvement from his season average of 41.3%. 

Guardians vs Orioles Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (48%)

I’m leaning to the Under. Neither starter is giving up a boatload of runs right now, and the offensive profiles of both lineups do not exactly scream slugfest, either.

Cleveland is well below the league average in wRC+ lately, and Baltimore is in the same boat. The bullpens are also holding things together late in games.

The Guardians’ relief corps owns a stellar 2.79 xERA over its last 47 frames, while the Orioles’ bullpen has a 2.96 xERA over the last seven days.

While Baltimore’s relievers have been slightly home run prone, neither offense is slugging many homers right now.

The starters should keep tonight low-scoring, and the bullpens should keep things controlled as well.

Play this pick up to 53%.

Guardians vs Orioles home run prediction: Coby Mayo (20%)

Coby Mayo is an intriguing value pick tonight. He has gone deep twice in the last week while posting a .389 ISO and .333 average during that span.

The slugger is also consistently getting lift on the baseball, producing a 50% fly-ball rate over his previous six contests.

Griffin doesn’t allow a lot of home runs, but he has been a bit more vulnerable against right-handed hitters this season, surrendering 1.21 HR/9 with a fly-ball rate just under 40%. Cleveland’s bullpen has also allowed 39.3% of its contact in the air over the last week.

With a 42.9% hard-hit rate and 14.3% barrel rate recently, Mayo has enough underlying power support to leave the yard.

Play this pick up to 25%.

Guardians vs Orioles market trends

Here is how the money is coming in from trusted traders at Polymarket on tonight's Guardians vs. Orioles matchup.

Guardians vs Orioles weather

Weather looks clean at Camden Yards tonight, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures falling from the mid-80s into the upper 70s. Winds are noticeable around 12 to 14 mph, but rain chances sit at just 1% throughout, so there’s no delay concern and only a modest weather impact.

Guardians vs Orioles odds

• Moneyline: Guardians 51% | Orioles 50%
• Run line: Guardians -1.5 (39%) | Orioles +1.5 (62%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (53%) | Under 8.5 (48%)

Guardians vs Orioles trend

The Baltimore Orioles have hit the game total Under in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+9.60 Units / 35% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Orioles.

How to watch Guardians vs Orioles and game info

Guardians vs Orioles latest injuries

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It's NFL opening day, but there's plenty of time to hammer home run and MLB player props this afternoon and build that kickoff bankroll. 

Kazuma Okamoto could pummel Sutter Health Park for a third straight day, but don't count out the Athletics vs. the Jays' bullpen.

These are my favorite home run props for Wednesday, September 9. 

MLB home run props for today

For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Player to hit a HR	Chance
Henry Bolte	11.5%
Kazuma Okamoto	22%
Cody Bellinger	17%
💲Today's HR parlay	173.1x

Home run prediction: Henry Bolte (11.5%)

I'm going long on a leadoff hitter who leads his team in swing speed and home runs while ranking second in HardHit% over the last two weeks. Henry Bolte has great pop for a leadoff guy, and he'll get to see an average Jays middle bullpen that could need six or seven arms today.

He's already 3-for-6 in the series with a homer and three runs scored, while adding four stolen bases. It's almost 100 degrees at Sutter Health Park, which is the best park for runs today, per Ballpark Pal.

I have Zack Gelof as a good look here as well at 5.8x, but getting a similar projection at 8.7x is the move. If you can't get Bolte at 8x, I'd move to Gelof at 5.5x or better. There is a great opportunity for long balls this afternoon in Sacramento.

• Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCSCA, Sportsnet

Home run prediction: Kazuma Okamoto (22%)

If it weren't for rookie Kazuma Okamoto's power, the Jays would have hit just 110 home runs, as he's accounted for 21.4% of the club's total. He's already gone deep twice down the left-field line at Sutter Health Park and is looking to dinger-sweep the series.

Okamoto shouldn't be longer than 3x at this park, especially with near-100-degree temperatures and a plus-plus hitting matchup.

Both clubs will be going with bullpen days, and there are some stat-stuffers on the Athletics' side. Both teams can stack runs today, and I think the A's can be competitive. But with the heat and matchup, I'll take the only trusted Toronto bat at three percentage points above my fair price.

• Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCSCA, Sportsnet

Home run prediction: Cody Bellinger (17%)

I want a left-handed bat in the Bronx today, and Cody Bellinger is answering the call at 17%, with a fair probability of 20%.

He might not be in the best form since coming over, but he's at least hitting .290 and seeing the ball well. It's the matchup and setting that are pushing this into +EV territory.

There will be 14-mph winds blowing out to left-center field at Yankee Stadium. Bellinger also gets a matchup against Tomoyuki Sugano, who has given up 60 home runs over the last two seasons, the second-most in baseball behind Shoto Imanaga (64).

Lefties have taken Sugano deep at a higher rate, with a home run coming every 15.7 plate appearances, which is a huge number. The Rockies' bullpen is also very serviceable, adding to the dinger chances in a Mickey Mouse park.

• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: YES Network, Rockies.TV

Best home run combo for September 9

Henry Bolte	Trade Now 173.1x
Kazuma Okamoto
Cody Bellinger

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The Atlanta Braves are 54% favorites over the visiting Tampa Bay Rays tonight at Truist Park in Atlanta, Ga.

However, my Rays vs. Braves prediction and MLB picks fade the home team, with a returning Reynaldo Lopez slated to take the mound after missing more than a month with a knee injury in his plant leg.

Expect Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz, and the rest of Tampa's pesky lineup to drive a rusty Lopez mad. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET.

Who will win Rays vs Braves today: Rays (47%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Reynaldo Lopez will slot back into the Atlanta Braves rotation today against the Tampa Bay Rays. The veteran right-hander hasn't pitched in the majors since July 26 and has spent the last month and change on the injured list with left knee inflammation.

Before his injury, he put together a 4-3 record with a 3.64 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. The latter stat is the concerning number, as it helps explain why his expected ERA is 4.63.

No team strikes out less often than the Rays, who have an 18.4% strikeout rate as a unit. The Blue Jays and Diamondbacks are the only other teams that go down on strikes less than 20% of the time.

That will be dangerous terrain for Lopez. His fastball is his most-used pitch, and it's down more than a full mile per hour (95.5 to 94.2) from his last healthy season, 2024.

Coming off injury and already showing less impressive stuff before hitting the shelf, Lopez will be in tough shape against a Rays offense that will pester him repeatedly, especially Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero, both of whom limit whiffs with the best of them and do damage when challenged.

Tampa is a road underdog, but I'd take the Rays on the moneyline all the way to 53%. 

COVERS INTEL: Lopez wasn't missing many bats before his injury, recording a 14th-percentile chase rate and a 23rd-percentile whiff rate. Even in conditions that don't favor power, Tampa's best contact bats can chip away at the righty.

Rays vs Braves Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (53%)

Yes, I expect the Rays will get to Lopez, but that doesn't mean this will be a high-scoring affair.

Griffin Jax is a ground-ball pitcher and will benefit from the weather conditions at Truist Park. While it will be humid, the high barometric pressure and wind blowing in from left field will suppress power. Per Ballpark Pal, this game has the worst hitting conditions on the slate.

This will also help Lopez keep it in the yard after getting burned by gopher-ball before his injury.

The Braves surrendered seven runs in last night's loss, but they only used two relievers, so the bullpen is fairly well-stocked.

I'm surprised the O/U isn't listed at 7.5, so I'll happily take the Under 8.5 and would play it to 58%. 

Rays vs Braves home run prediction: Drake Baldwin (16%)

I don't love the hitting conditions and wouldn't go heavy on anyone to clear the fences.

But while Jax trends toward the ground ball, he has been somewhat prone to homers in 2026.

So, I'll take Braves catcher Drake Baldwin. The lefty slugger has hit the bulk of his home runs to right field this season, and with wind moving from left to right, he could get a little boost if he executes. 

Baldwin ranks in the 84th percentile in barrel rate, the 86th in average exit velocity, the 88th in bat speed, and the 93rd in hard-hit rate. This is the kind of profile that can overcome sketchy weather.

Rays vs Braves weather

It will be a fairly humid night in Atlanta, with temperatures ranging between 83 and 90 degrees, but wind blowing in from left field, capping power potential a bit. The high barometric pressure will also make it difficult to elevate pitches.

Rays vs Braves odds

• Moneyline: Rays 47% | Braves 54%
• Run line: Rays +1.5 (65%) | Braves -1.5 (37%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (48%) | Under 8.5 (53%)

Rays vs Braves trend

The Rays have hit the moneyline in 14 of their last 19 away games (+8.15 Units / 33% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Braves.

How to watch Rays vs Braves and game info

Rays vs Braves latest injuries

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No Mason Miller, no problem for the San Diego Padres.

Adrian Morejon came in for the third time in as many days having thrown 27 pitches over the previous two outings. San Diego’s All-Star closer was unavailable to close out a 5-4 comeback win for the Padres over the Washington Nationals at Petco Park on Tuesday which set the stage for Morejon. The left-hander needed just seven pitches to get through the top of the ninth inning to save a one-run win over the Nationals. Morejon’s performance was just what San Diego needed after a four-run bottom of the eighth inning gave the Padres the lead.

San Diego trailed throughout the game and did not have a hit against Washington, which employed a bullpen game. Luis Campusano hit a line drive single to left field in the bottom of the fifth inning for the first hit of the game for the Padres and he was responsible for what proved to be the game-winner in the bottom of the eighth inning. Campusano hit a broken bat flare into shallow center field that fell between three Washington fielders. That allowed Manny Machado to score to give the Padres their fourth run of the inning and the first lead of the game.

Machado was at the plate earlier in the inning with San Diego trailing 4-2 with one out in the eighth. Freddy Fermin was on third base and Fernando Tatis Jr. was at second after a walk and a passed ball allowed him to get on base and move into scoring position. Machado battled in his at-bat before he was able to chop a changeup back through the middle of the infield into center field. Fermin scored easily and Tatis was able to score standing up to tie the game at 4-4.

The Padres got their first run of the game in the bottom of the seventh inning when Jackson Merrill hit a sacrifice fly ball to right field, with Machado on third base and Ty France at second. The sacrifice by Merrill allowed Machado to tag up and score to get San Diego on the board, 3-1. Yuki Matsui surrendered a run in the top of the eighth, which put the Padres down 4-1 before the eighth inning heroics gave them the lead and eventually the win.

Casey Mize started for San Diego and had a solid outing. He allowed three runs on four hits over 5.2 innings. Mize allowed one walk and struck out seven batters. He left the game with the Padres trailing 1-0 but had runners at first and second after allowing a double and a walk. Randy Vasquez came on to try to get San Diego out of the inning needing just one more out. He allowed a double to Brady House, which allowed both Washington runners to score, giving Mize three earned runs in the game.

San Diego will go for the series sweep today at 1:10 p.m. If the Padres can complete the sweep, they will finish their home stand with a 5-1 record before hitting the road for three games in San Francisco and four games in Colorado.

Padres News:

• Thomas Conroy of Gaslamp Ball believes Joe Musgrove may have given the Friar Faithful a hint at his future in recent comments.

• Jason Adam is working in the minor league system, attempting to make his return to the Padres.

• The Padres added a veteran reliever on a minor league deal after releasing two other players in the minor league system earlier in the day.

Baseball News:

• The Milwaukee Brewers got a walk-off win over the Chicago Cubs to earn their 90th win of the season.

• Cam Schlittler continued his dominant season and led the New York Yankees to a win.

• Corbin Burnes returned for the Arizona Diamondbacks who got another extra-innings win over the Kansas City Royals.

• The Houston Astros edged out the Philadelphia Phillies in a 6-5 win.

• Kazuma Okamoto hit his 30th home run of the season and the Toronto Blue Jays topped the Athletics.

This one hurt.

The Cubs were one strike away from a stirring, ninth-inning rally win over the rival Brewers.

Then: Single, two-run homer smashed halfway to the moon off Jacob Webb, and eventually a 10-inning loss, 4-3 to Milwaukee.

For those of you of a certain age, you were likely reminded of this game, almost exactly 57 years ago to the day, that helped kill the 1969 Cubs.

Fortunately for the 2026 Cubs, there are more postseason spots available now than back then, and the Cubs are still likely headed for a wild card series. Maybe. Possibly. Hopefully.

Sigh. Let’s recap, shall we?

The Cubs jumped on Jacob Misiorowski for a run in the first inning. Seiya Suzuki hit a one-out double and one out later, Michael Busch singled him in [VIDEO].

The Brewers came back to tie the game in the bottom of the inning on a double by Jackson Chourio and single by Brice Turang.

And that is where the score stayed until the ninth inning. David Peterson settled down, but had to be removed in the fifth at 83 pitches, only 47 of which were strikes. About that, from BCB’s JohnW53:

David Peterson became the 11th different Cubs starter this year to complete four innings but not five. Javier Assad and Jameson Taillon did it four times; Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga and Colin Rea, three; Ben Brown, Edward Cabrera, Kevin Gausman and Clay Holmes, two; and Peterson and Jordan Wicks, one.

That adds up to 27 starts, one of every 5.4 total starts.

From the second through the eighth, the Brewers got just three runners past first base. Along the way, the Cubs got a great defensive play from Matt Shaw in the second [VIDEO].

In the fifth, the Brewers had runners on first and second when Peterson was removed with one out. Trent Thornton relieved Peterson and struck out pinch-hitter Jake Bauers.

Then this happened [VIDEO].

That was just a fantastic throw from Suzuki and great tag by Miguel Amaya.

But the Cubs got only one runner past first base from the second through the eighth. That was Pete Crow-Armstrong, who singled with two out in the fifth and stole second, his 36th [VIDEO].

That was also PCA’s 100th career stolen base. More on that from John:

Pete Crow-Armstrong’s stolen base was his 100th. He is the 34th Cub to reach triple digits but only the ninth who played after 1947. Of those, Ryne Sandberg stole 344; Sammy Sosa, 181; Shawon Dunston, 175; Ivan de Jesus, 154; Nico Hoerner, 153; Jose Cardenal, 129; Bob Dernier, 119; and Ryan Theriot, 100.

But he was stranded.

The Cubs got some excellent relief work from Aaron Civale, who has been a revelation in the pen. He retired all six batters he faced, four by strikeout, and for an outing with that many K’s, it was efficient: Just 26 pitches, 19 of which were strikes. Ryan Rolison threw a scoreless eighth on just 13 pitches (nine strikes).

Then the Cubs took the lead in the ninth. Nico Hoerner and Pedro Ramirez led off with singles. Matt Shaw was called out on strikes, but Michael Conforto then walked to load the bases.

Craig Counsell sent Carson Kelly up to bat for Amaya. Kelly had an excellent at-bat, fouling off a whole bunch of pitches before hitting this two-run double [VIDEO].

As you can see, that didn’t miss being a grand slam by much, and, well, that would have helped.

In any case, the Cubs led 3-1 going to the bottom of the ninth. Webb retired the first two Brewers on just seven pitches. Webb ran an 0-2 count on pinch-hitter Christian Yelich.

One. Strike. Away.

Yelich ran the count full and then singled. Chourio, who had been 3-for-4 coming into this at-bat, slammed Webb’s second pitch out of the yard at 110 miles per hour to tie the game.

A fly out ended the inning and on to extras it went.

Suzuki was the placed runner. Bregman flied to right. Suzuki tried to take third, the right thing to do in this situation, but he overslid the base and was thrown out [VIDEO].

Thus the Cubs did not score in the 10th, and that gave them a near-impossible situation in the bottom of the inning. Caleb Thielbar entered to pitch and struck out Bauers, and then William Contreras was given an intentional pass. A single by Sal Frelick loaded the bases, and Luis Lara singled in the game-winner.

Sigh, again.

Here are postgame remarks from Webb [VIDEO].

Credit, at least, to Webb for being a standup guy.

Here are Counsell’s postgame comments [VIDEO].

One more note on this one from John:

This was the 11th game of the season in which the Cubs blew multiple leads. They are 5-6 in such games.

They have blown 63 leads, 24 of them in the next half-inning after going ahead, including both Wednesday night.
In all games in which they have blown leads, the Cubs are 23-29. They have lost nine in a row starting on Aug. 21. They had won five straight before then.

As bad as this feels, this is not the end of the world. The Cubs still trail the Phillies for the top wild card spot by just half a game, as the Phillies also lost Tuesday. The Cubs lead the Diamondbacks by three games and the Padres by 3.5 in the wild card race. As you know, the Cubs have the tiebreaker over all three of those teams. That might become very, very important.

The Cubs will try to salvage the final regular season game against the Brewers Wednesday evening in Milwaukee. It’ll be the third straight pitching rematch from last week: Kevin Gausman vs. Logan Henderson. Gausman had a really good game last week; here’s hoping for another just like that. Game time is 6:40 p.m. CT and TV coverage will be via Marquee Sports Network.

A throwaway today, but I can at least provide some interesting-ish context.

The Braves were third in homers through April, and pushed up to second in May. Then June happened and June was June, and the Braves fell all the way down to 12th. Their July homer binge, driven in part by so many pulled flies down the line, kicked them back up to fourth. They dropped to seventh by the end of August, which is where they sit right now.

There are about three weeks left in the season. Four teams (Mets, Athletics, Dodgers, Orioles) are less than ten behind the Braves. The White Sox and Astros are less than ten ahead of the Braves. The overall spread of homers-per-game in the league goes from 1.4 (Cubs) to 0.9 (Brewers); with 18 games left, it seems unlikely that the Braves will catch the currently-fourth Yankees (13 more homers right now) or fall as far back as the 12th-ranked Phillies (12 fewer homers right now). But, they’re also not quite on a homer binge right now (the opposite really) so that tilts the calculus a bit.

I’ll say they finish tenth, which will end up being a veiled reference to the fact that they have easily top-ten homer skill but faltered in execution pretty badly for long stretches over the course of the season.

A team doesn’t fall this short of expectations without at least a few players failing to meet their expected level of production. The Orioles are no exception. Gunnar Henderson has been in the spotlight all season for his lack of superstar production, but this rings true for several players. Colton Cowser has failed to make an impact on the offensive side of the ball. Andrew Kittredge has disappointed as a high-leverage reliever. Carlos Narvaez has not resembled a major league hitter since coming over in the Rutschman deal.

At the same time, a few players have punched above their weight class. Blaze Alexander emerged as one of Baltimore’s best hitters. Christian Encarnacion-Strand took full advantage when given an opportunity. Brandon Young grabbed onto a rotation spot and never let go.

The next three guys do not fit into either category. Dylan Beavers, Jackson Holliday, and Coby Mayo all have the potential to be above-average hitters but have yet to carve out consistent everyday roles with the team.

Mayo has made headlines as a lefty masher. His superhuman numbers against left-handers have elevated his OPS+ to an above-average 110. At the same time, only five of his 21 home runs have come against right-handed pitching. His .323/.384/.752 line against southpaws is certainly something to marvel at, but his struggles against righties remain a mystery. Mayo did not exhibit anything close to these platoon splits in the minors, and he still feels like a guy that can figure it out with time. The numbers against lefties are destined to decrease, but a 110 OPS+ feels repeatable with heavy power numbers.

The Orioles made the decision to roll with Mayo out of necessity when Jordan Westburg went down. The team could have deployed a glove-first option at the hot corner, but the team gave Mayo an extended window to work out his defensive kinks. Things were not pretty early in the year, but Mayo rewarded the Orioles for sticking with him early in the season.

Mayo’s defense was a story all spring, but all three of these guys have significant room to improve. Beavers entered last night’s game with a -7 Fielding Run Value. Holliday started the game at -4. Mayo actually checked in as the “best” of the three with only a -2 FRV.

Holliday missed the beginning of the season after having his hamate bone removed. Players often struggle to regain their power after the procedure, and Holliday followed suit. He’s tallied only seven home runs over 92 games and has struggled to get going outside of a red-hot July.

The Orioles believed in Beavers enough to hold him back last summer until the deadline for PPI players had passed. Did the organization really view Beavers as a candidate for rookie of the year? The 25-year-old has failed to meet that expectation, but he continues to show an ability to get on base. Beavers currently holds a 101 OPS+ despite a rocky season that saw him miss well over a month with an oblique strain.

Mayo received an early opportunity and eventually clawed his way into the heart of the order. Holliday struggled before catching fire in July. An injury to Blaze Alexander cemented Holliday as an everyday player and eventually created an opportunity at the top of the lineup. Beavers fell back into a timeshare with a mediocre outfield, but he remains a long term option.

All three of these guys have room to grow on defense, and they’ve all been inconsistent at the plate, but the thing that really brings them together is a need for daily reps. With this season all but lost, will these guys be guaranteed the opportunity in 2027?

The early years of the Mike Elias tenure were brutal, but at least fans knew what to expect. Developing talent was the most strategically relevant goal, and the team could afford to give players an extended leash. The Orioles have tried (and failed) to put together a winning team over the last two seasons, and they will enter the offseason looking to win in 2027. How will they value this trio moving forward?

The team isn’t going to cut bait with any of these guys. Holliday is a former number one pick that should benefit from a healthy offseason and another year of quality instruction from his father. Mayo has all the power in the world, but will the team look to unlock his bat against righties? Does the team view Beavers as a starter or an extra outfielder?

The product on the field has been bleak over the last week. Pete Alonso has been great, but some of these guys have played brutal baseball. Beavers, Holliday and Mayo haven’t been the problem, but they’ll finish this season with a lot of meat left on the bone. Can the Orioles find a way to unlock that potential moving forward?

Happy Wednesday, folks. Last night, Tanner Houck completed his first rehab assignment since undergoing Tommy John Surgery in August 2025. He threw 20 pitches, 8 for strikes, and allowed a run in 0.2 innings. Regardless of the results, getting back on the mound for the first time in two years is a step in the right direction. Assuming he recovers well, he’ll throw in another game later this week, ramping up to closer to 40 pitches. If all goes well, Houck could be in the mix for the playoff pitching staff.

Do you trust him, though? His best season was back in 2024, and there was little track record before that. At the same time, one of his biggest issues is getting through lineups multiple times. In a bullpen role, that becomes irrelevant. Lefties are another question, but pitching as a reliever allows Chad Tracy to pick his spots to deploy the righty. Despite these “solutions” to his weaknesses, will the rust be too tough to shake off? Strike-throwing and the lack of a third pitch are also questions.

I’m personally skeptical, but what do you think? Is his major league experience enough to displace Wyatt Olds or Greg Weissert on the staff, or should Houck be left on the shelf until 2027? USe this space to talk about what you want and be good to one another.

The Mets continue a three-game series against the Marlins in Miami on Tuesday night at 7:10 p.m. on SNY.

Mets Notes

• A.J. Ewing is hitting .379/.455/.586 with a homer and three doubles in 33 plate appearances over his last eight games
• Carson Benge is slashing .295/.357/.445 (.802 OPS) in 109 games dating back to May 3
• Nate Lavender has fired 14.0 scoreless innings with a 0.71 WHIP since making his big league debut

Today's Lineups

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The Detroit Tigers are 55% favorites for this afternoon's AL Central showdown with the Minnesota Twins at Comerica Park, with first pitch scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. 

With Keider Montero in good form, my Twins vs. Tigers predictions back Detroit to take the rubber match. Read more in my MLB picks for Wednesday, Sep. 9. 

Who will win Twins vs Tigers today: Tigers moneyline (55%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

The Detroit Tigers should feel confident today as they send Keider Montero to the mound. The right-hander owns a 2.91 xERA over his last four appearances with strong command and just 0.87 HR/9 allowed.

Montero is coming off a bit of a rough start, but that was more of an exception than the norm. The 26-year-old also tossed 6 1/3 scoreless innings against the Minnesota Twins earlier this season, and this lineup is sitting right around league average offensively at the moment.

As for Zebby Matthews, he was tagged for four earned runs and three home runs last week against the White Sox. Matthews also owns an ugly 5.59 FIP on the road this season.

While the Tigers aren’t in their best form at the plate, Matthews’ struggles give them the cleaner edge.

Play this pick up to 58%.

COVERS INTEL: The majority of Zebby Matthews' long ball issues have been on the road, where he's surrendered 2.40 HR/9. At home, he's allowed just 0.95 HR/9. 

Twins vs Tigers Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (47%)

I’m leaning Under 8.5. Neither offense is in great shape, and Montero’s recent profile gives Detroit a stable starting point. 

Matthews is the obvious concern given his home run vulnerability, but the Tigers lineup isn't exactly firing on all cylinders, either. The Twins’ bullpen has also held its own lately with a 3.94 FIP over the last week.

Detroit’s relief corps is more vulnerable, but neither bullpen is allowing many homers, and neither lineup is going yard often as of late. I'm expecting another controlled offensive game at Comerica Park. 

Play this pick up to 53%.

Twins vs Tigers home run prediction: Riley Greene (19%)

Riley Greene is an intriguing value pick today. The slugger has cracked three home runs in his last six games, and facing Matthews creates a real opportunity to continue that power surge.

Matthews has allowed a 52.5% fly-ball rate over his last two starts, while Greene’s fly-ball rate over the last week sits at that same mark. Minnesota’s bullpen has also allowed a 44.4% fly-ball rate recently, giving Greene another path to damage if Matthews exits early.

Greene’s .500 ISO during this hot span only adds fuel to the pick, while his 46.3% hard-hit rate and 26.1% barrel rate are hard to ignore.

Play this pick up to 25%.

Twins vs Tigers weather

Weather could be a factor at Comerica Park, with overcast skies, humidity near 78%, and rain chances sitting around 47%-59% early in the game before easing later in the afternoon. Temperatures hover around 78-80°F with winds near 12 mph, so there's some delay risk but no extreme scoring boost.

Twins vs Tigers odds

• Moneyline: Twins 46% | Tigers 55%
• Run line: Twins +1.5 (64%) | Tigers -1.5 (37%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (52%) | Under 8.5 (47%)

Twins vs Tigers trend

The Tigers have cashed the Under in 30 of their last 50 home games for +9.25 units and a 17% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Tigers.

How to watch Twins vs Tigers and game info

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