KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - JULY 02: Randy Dobnak #62 of the Kansas City Royals throws against the Tampa Bay Rays in the fifth inning at Kauffman Stadium on July 02, 2026 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Royals captain Salvador Perez was out of Thursday night’s lineup with elbow soreness, causing a flurry of roster moves
Catcher Luke Maile was selected to the 40-man roster and called up from Triple-A Omaha, offering a reinforcement behind the plate if something were to happen to Carter Jensen and the Royals needed another catcher during the game.
In corresponding moves, outfielder John Rave was optioned to Triple-A Omaha, and reliever Eric Cerantola was designated for assignment to create room on the 40-man for Maile. The Royals also activated Stephen Kolek from the family medical emergency list to make Thursday’s start against the Rays and optioned reliever Jose Cuas to Omaha.
In other injury news, Cole Ragans has UCL surgery and is out for the next 10-12 months
Cole Ragans underwent an ulnar collateral ligament repair on his left elbow on Wednesday, with the surgery performed by Dr. Neal ElAttrache in Los Angeles.
The Royals’ lefty now faces 10-12 months of recovery. The club expects his return midseason in 2027.
The extent of Ragans’ elbow surgery was not known until he actually had the operation done, with several different options based on what the surgeon found once he could assess the elbow fully. But the Royals were operating under the assumption that it was going to be something related to Ragans’ UCL, and that they were not going to get Ragans back on the mound in 2026.
Kendry Chourio and Blake Mitchell will play in the Futures Game this season
Chourio has been on a rocket ship since signing for the Royals last year, and after a promotion to Quad Cities last month, he’s the only age-18 pitcher to appear at High-A this season and the first since Eury Pérez in 2021. His fastball sits around 96 mph (that stands out more for his command of it than its shape), and he plays off that with an upper-70s, good-spin curveball and an upper-80s changeup. Mitchell is a Three True Outcome King with 13 homers, a 24.5 percent walk rate and 35.2 percent strikeout rate in 68 games at High-A Quad Cities this season. The 2023 eighth overall pick also has a strong arm from behind the plate that he could show off in Philly.
Here are some former Royals who are playing well this year.
Michael Wacha and Jac Caglianone were named Royals player and pitcher of the month for June
Congratulations to Michael Wacha and Jac Caglianone, our June Pitcher and Player of the Month award winners! pic.twitter.com/mQFQkvVG0d
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - MARCH 21: In an aerial view, downtown Los Angeles is seen after sunset on March 21, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. Los Angeles is loosening its building conversion rules to fast-track city approvals, making it easier to convert empty commercial buildings to housing. L.A. has a significant vacant office space problem and a housing shortage. (Photo by David McNew/Getty Images) | Getty Images
My first foray into this “contract year” between MLB and the MLBPA looked at how franchise values continue to grow at wildly unequal—if steadily upward—rates.
This time around, the focus is on geography. So, get out that green folder (don’t fight me on this) from eighth grade and let’s find the section on “population density”.
First, a thought experiment:
Imagine three lemonade stands run by the same proprietor operating on three different streets.
The first one operates on a street where 1,000 people walk by every hour.
The second sees 500 people/hour stroll by.
The third only draws 100 passersby in the same period.
Every single day, these three lemonade stands are in competition with each other for sales that can be poured (pardon the pun) back into the business. For product-saturation reasons, the less-trafficked stands cannot simply horn in on the busier stands’ territory.
One can imagine the inequity this setup might produce between the rival-but-all-in-the-same-gang stands. Stand 3 could have the highest-quality lemonade and service in the business, but never win the competition simply because the volume of potentially thirsty patrons is so low. Stand 1 could dominate in sales by pairing a strong product with high traffic—or put out watered-down lemonade and probably still come out on top because, well, there are just so many potential consumers on that hourly basis.
This is what is happening in MLB geographically right now.
Toronto, Washington, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Miami, Phoenix, Boston
Tier 5: 3-5 Million
Oakland, San Francisco, Detroit, Seattle, Minneapolis/St. Paul, Tampa Bay, San Diego, Denver, Baltimore, St. Louis
Tier 6: 2-3 Million
Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Kansas City, Cleveland
Tier 7: <2 Million
Milwaukee
Something else to remember: though often hard for us “die hards” to comprehend, most daily ballpark attendance comes from folks simply “looking for something to do”. Yes, the competitiveness of the on-field product can and will certainly tip the scales in one direction or the other. But the access to larger numbers of individuals who may decide to go—and take their family/friends with them—to one or more of 81 yearly contests is also an enormous profit consideration.
It isn’t just “butts in seats”, either. TV deals are largely valued on advertising. The more potential eyes on the glowing box (or device), the more $$$ clubs can get for their media wares. While perhaps more prominent in the bygone age of cable TV, it still stands to reason that larger markets = larger potential advertising profits, especially with MLB mostly being a regional-over-national success media-wise.
This takes us back to our lemonade stand. Except now, replace the citrusy stop with a MLB ballpark but keep the varying street traffics. No matter how good or bad the product is, high volume is going to have an inherent advantage over its opposite. The Dodgers can build an empire by consistently winning, while the Mets can still rake in the dough as lovable losers. Meanwhile, the Twins or Pirates can turtle up and not compete at all, or clubs like the Brewers & Tigers can continue trying to swing with the big boys and never quite reach that level but for an extraordinary run of development/injury good fortune.
To be clear, I’m not at all saying that player dev and smart personnel decisions don’t matter. The Rockies have failed that exam for years and look where they are, while the Rays seemingly ace the test every term. I simply think it is important to remember that certain MLB franchises have significant built-in advantages over others by population density alone.
Advantages that could be leveled at least somewhat by a salary cap/floor structure in the upcoming collective bargaining agreement.
Tuesday night there was a bench-clearing “incident” in the Nationals — Red Sox game after pitcher Cade Cavalli told Red Sox first baseman Willson Contreras to “Sit down, boy.” Last night, suspensions were handed out. Cavalli and Contreras both got seven-game suspensions. Nationals pitcher Miles Mikolas got a five-game suspension and Red Sox outfielder Nate Eaton got three games. All four players are appealing the suspensions.
There was one minor trade, but it was a historic one. For the first time since they moved to Washington, the Nationals and Orioles made a deal, with the Orioles sending right-hander Kyle Nicolas to the Nats for minor league infielder Randal Diaz.
Eno Sarris and Evan Drellich look at how baseballs aren’t quite as much of a drag as they used to be. Or to put it another why, why the current batch of baseballs flying farther? (The Athletic sub. req.) MLB continues to insist that all balls are within industry standards.
And more bad news for Sacramento as minor league outfield prospect Ryan Lasko is in stable condition after a scary collision that resulted in spinal decompression and stabilization surgery. Currently Lasko has no feeling in his lower extremities, although doctors have some hope that he will regain feeling in his legs.
The Mets mercifully had the day off yesterday, and they’re set to begin a four-game series in Atlanta tonight. The heat there will be slightly less excruciating over the next couple of days, but it’ll remain hot and very humid in Atlanta on Sunday and Monday, while temperatures will drop substantially in New York City.
Speaking of Stearns, Joel Sherman writes that Steve Cohen’s decision to stick with him is the right call.
Laura Albanese also writes that retaining Stearns is the right move, as it could be better to let him see his long-term plan through rather than hand someone new the responsibility of fixing this mess.
The Reds did something that most teams haven’t been able to do this year, scoring five runs off Jacob Misiorowski in what turned out to be a 7-2 win over the Brewers.
It’s been a tough couple of days for the Padres, who saw a 6-0 lead over the rival Dodgers turn into a 12-6 loss last night after giving up 23 runs to the Cubs the day before.
Bryce Miller carried a no-hitter into the seventh innings as he and the Mariners blanked the Angels and won 1-0.
Cade Cavalli shouted “sit down, boy,” a phrase with a history of racism behind it, at Willson Contreras, and both players have received 7-game suspensions after both teams’ benches cleared.
Milwaukee Brewers general manager Matt Arnold participates in a panel discussion during a tailgate-themed celebration marking the completion of “Mr. Baseball,” a new 80-by-100-foot mural by artist Mauricio Ramirez depicting longtime Milwaukee Brewers broadcaster Bob Uecker in Milwaukee, Wisconsin on June 30, 2026. | Jovanny Hernandez / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Brewers fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.
In this week’s Reacts survey, we asked fans if they’d like the Brewers to continue their “bites of the apple” approach or make a splashy move in a push for a deep postseason run. Here are the results:
As you can see, it was a pretty split result, with 56% of fans in favor of a splashy move and 44% of fans voting for sticking to the status quo.
If the Brewers do opt to go for a big name at the deadline, there’s one obvious candidate that would fit for both sides: Tarik Skubal.
The franchise has never won a World Series, hasn’t been in one since 1982 and has been on the edge of getting there for years now. If there’s ever a year to go all-in, this is it. Skubal could be that final piece for the Brewers, and he not only adds another ace to go with Jacob Misiorowski but also gives them another lefty starter alongside Kyle Harrison to combat Shohei Ohtani and a lefty-heavy Dodgers lineup. The Brewers have the prospects to make any deal they want, but does owner Mark Attanasio have the resolve to take on the rest of Skubal’s salary.
What do you think of that take? Should the Brewers go for Skubal in the next month? If they do, who (more importantly, how much) would you be willing to part with for a rental arm?
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - APRIL 26: Ezequiel Tovar #14 of the Colorado Rockies strikes out during the third inning of game one of a doubleheader against the New York Mets at Citi Field on April 26, 2026 in the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Heather Khalifa/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Flashback to 2023.
The Rockies lost over 100 games for the first time in franchise history, and the future was bleak.
One of the lone bright spots was Ezequiel Tovar. The 21-year-old shortstop was fresh off a breakout rookie season. Hoping to capitalize on the promising prospect from Venezuela, the Rockies — a team in need of an anchor — locked Tovar in for the long term with a seven-year, $63.5 million deal in March of 2024.
The Rockies would have had team control of Tovar through 2028, but this seemed like a good way to show their appreciation for the young star and possibly avoid a splashy free agency departure down the line. It looked like a win-win and a boost to a team that needed it.
The Tovar investment paid off immediately as his sophomore campaign was even more impressive than his first. His power at the plate exploded. He won the National League Gold Glove and finished No. 19 in NL MVP voting.
Then came the injury-filled 2025 that included a left hip injury and a left oblique strain that only allowed Tovar to play 95 games compared to the 157 he played in 2024. His numbers weren’t bad, but it was mostly his absences that hurt.
Enter 2026 and the promise of a healthy, productive season for the 24-year-old, including his outstanding performance in the World Baseball Classic. In seven games, Tovar went 8-for-17 at the plate with three doubles and two stolen bases in helping Venezuela to an underdog championship.
Season
Age
bWAR
G
PA
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
CS
BB
SO
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS
OPS+
2022
20
-0.3
9
35
33
2
7
1
0
1
2
0
0
2
9
.212
.257
.333
.590
58
2023
21
2.5
153
615
581
79
147
37
4
15
73
11
5
25
166
.253
.287
.408
.695
79
2024
22
3.6
157
695
655
83
176
45
4
26
78
6
5
23
200
.269
.295
.469
.763
100
2025
23
0.6
95
390
360
44
91
18
4
9
33
5
3
21
98
.253
.294
.400
.694
84
2026
24
-0.4
81
305
283
27
58
16
0
6
27
5
0
16
84
.205
.249
.325
.574
51
But when the regular season arrived, that 2024 Tovar or the WBC Tovar was nowhere to be found. He’s still a solid defender with range and a great arm, but he often looks lost at the plate. He’s always been a high-risk, high-reward batter who will strike out a lot and walk infrequently, but the power and clutch potential were worth it. Now, Tovar is barely hovering above a .200 batting average.
He’s maintained his aggressive approach at the plate, but it isn’t resulting in hits. Instead, he has posted a 27.5% strikeout rate, a 2.4% jump from last year. His slugging and OPS have dropped .075 and .120, respectively, since 2025. His batting average is a dismal .205 and his OBP is .249, the lowest by far for the Rockies starters. The OBP is second-worst among qualified players in MLB, while the .205 batting average is the sixth-worst.
Tovar has shown promise this season. His May was improved, but in June, he reverted back to his slumping April numbers.
Month
G
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
CS
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
March
5
22
3
7
2
0
1
5
0
6
1
0
.318
.318
.545
.863
April
27
92
6
16
6
0
0
3
5
29
1
0
.174
.232
.239
.471
May
26
85
8
21
3
0
3
12
8
20
2
0
.247
.305
.388
.693
June
21
81
9
14
5
0
2
7
3
29
1
0
.173
.198
.309
.507
Outside of being heartbreaking, Tovar’s long-lasting slump is becoming a significant problem. Rockies fans know “The Climb” is going to take a while as Colorado dreams of avoiding 100 losses this season. With a .500 record and competing for the postseason still in the distant future, the Rockies can afford to be patient with Tovar.
But as he drops farther and farther down the lineup and feels more and more like a guaranteed out, how long can the Rockies wait for Tovar to be the star we all saw in 2024? His defense remains top-tier, but his offensive numbers don’t make Tovar a very valuable trade token.
In a darker query, what if the 2024 Tovar is the anomaly? With the evolution of the game, and especially with the pendulum swinging to favor pitchers right now, perhaps Tovar’s beginner’s luck has worn off. MLB is a tough league, and Tovar wouldn’t be the first or last bright star to quickly fade out.
I don’t want that to be true. The Rockies and their fans need Tovar to be the star we believe he is. I am hopeful that with his innate talent, a new coaching staff and more analytics, there is still time to turn it around.
The Rockies are better, but they aren’t vying for a Wild Card anytime soon. When they do, they will need Tovar to be a part of it.
If he’s not, the Rockies might not be able to keep him around.
Vimael Machín hit a two-run triple in the first inning, Adael Amador hit an RBI single and Sterlin Thompson and Zac Veen each recorded two hits as the Isotopes beat the Express on Thursday night. Thompson also scored a run, coming in on a throwing error on a pickoff attempt. Jake Brooks had a solid start, giving up three runs on six hits in five innings. Parker Muschinski threw two scoreless innings and Andrew Baker added two more to get his first win of the season.
The first clutch performance came from Aidan Longwell, who doubled in Braylen Wimmer to tie the game in the ninth and send it to extra innings. In the 10th, it was a team effort — with some luck — when Jose Torres started on second, Mike Antico singled to move Torres to third and both were then joined by Roc Riggio, who intentionally walked. Torres and Antico both came around to score when the Patriots threw a wild pitch. That was enough to win it. Zach Kokoska doubled and homered to drive in three runs. Fidel Ulloa earned the win by throwing 2.2 scoreless innings.
Trailing 4-3 heading to the ninth inning, Kelvin Hidalgo and Tommy Hopfe hit back-to-back solo homers to put Spokane on top and Justin Loer struck out two Hops in the scoreless bottom of the ninth for the save. The win was the sixth in a row for Spokane. The Indians rallied back from a 2-0 deficit to tie the game in the third when Tanner Thach hit an RBI double and Jacob Humphrey followed with a run-scoring single. Humphrey added another RBI with a sac fly in the fifth. Spokane outhit Hillsboro 12-8 and three of those belonged to Roynier Hernandez.
Aidan Redahan drove in five runs and scored three on a three-hit night, but the Grizzlies comeback bid came up short on Thursday night. Aidan Redahan and Carlos Renzullo each hit RBI singles and Wilder Dalis hit a sac fly to help the Grizzlies jump out to a 3-0 lead in the first inning, but Ontario bounced back with 10 unanswered runs to take a 10-3 lead by the sixth inning. But Fresno didn’t give up, getting one run back when Redahan hit a solo homer in the bottom of the sixth. In the seventh, Redahan struck again, this time with a three-run double and then he came around to score on a Dalis double to make it 10-8 Ontario. After the Tower Buzzers added a run in the eighth, so did the Grizzlies when Roldy Brito hit an RBI single. Fresno had the bases loaded in the eighth for a chance to add more, but came up empty. Kyle Fossum hit a sac fly in the bottom of the ninth, but the Grizzlies couldn’t manage anymore with the bases loaded.
While not related to the Rockies, Kyle Newman wrote a feature about Julian Garcia, the Fossil Ridge grad, who also played for Metro State, and recently made his debut for the Cincinnati Reds. Making history as the first MSU player to make it to MLB, he never gave up on his dream.
All MLB teams will be decked out in festive gear for Independence Day on Saturday. The Rockies, playing at home to host the San Francisco Giants, will have their traditional white pinstripes, but with players’ last names in red and the numbers in stars and stripes. The hats will be white with blue bills and the CR filled with stars and stripes and outlined in gold. A special patch noting the 250th anniversary of independence is on the side.
Drew Ceasman contrasts the 2026 Rockies with the 2025 squad, highlighting the improvement, noting the areas where the team still struggles and emphasizing the need for the next phase of getting back on track to begin: better pitching.
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 25: A general view of fireworks after the game between the San Francisco Giants and the Oakland Athletics at Oracle Park on June 25, 2021 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Good morning, baseball fans!
The San Francisco Giants are heading to Coors Field today to take on the Colorado Rockies for this Fourth of July weekend.
So today I wanted to see what everyone’s favorite Giants (or general baseball) related Fourth of July memories are.
This is normally the part where I would weigh in with my own, however I tend to spend Fourth of July in hiding, due to getting blown up by a fireworks misfire when I was a teenager reasons. So I’m going to go ahead and let you guys do the heavy lifting on this one.
What are your favorite Fourth of July baseball memories?
What time do the Giants play today?
The Giants and Rockies play game one of this three-game series tonight at 5:10 p.m. PT.
This Sunday, July 5, features an exciting day of MLB coverage on NBC and Peacock. NBC Sports presents a special "Star-Spangled Sunday" featuring all 30 MLB teams in action throughout the day on NBC, Peacock, and NBCSN.
Sunday's coverage is headlined by the NY Mets vs Atlanta Braves Sunday Leadoff matchup on NBC and Peacock at 12:00 PM ET, followed by the San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Sunday NightBaseball showdown at 7:00 PM ET. See below for additional information on how to watch every game.
1988 World Series MVP and NL Cy Young Award winner Orel Hershiser and 2007 NL Cy Young Award winner Jake Peavy join play-by-play voice Jason Benetti on the call of Sunday Night Baseball's Padres vs Dodgers game
Ahmed Fareed will host the pregame show alongside CC Sabathia, who will also provide “Inside the Pitch” commentary.
4:30 p.m. — Miami Marlins at Athletics — Peacock, NBCSN^
5:00 p.m. — Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners — Peacock, NBCSN
**7 p.m. — San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers — NBC/Peacock
9:30 p.m. — Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels — Peacock, NBCSN
* MLB Sunday Leadoff; first pitch at 12:30 p.m. ET
** Sunday Night Baseball
^ Available to select NBCSN subscribers
Spanish-Language Coverage for all NBCU-Produced Games: Universo will televise all games broadcast on NBC, and SAP will be provided for all games on Peacock.
Finish off the Fourth of July weekend in style with Star-Spangled Sunday on July 5, with all 15 of the day’s MLB games exclusively on NBC, Peacock and NBCSN.
MLB Sunday Leadoff is a weekly Major League Baseball showcase featuring live Sunday daytime games. It highlights marquee matchups throughout the regular season and streams primarily on Peacock, with some games also airing across NBC Sports and NBC.
MLB Sunday Night Baseball is a weekly primetime Major League Baseball showcase, featuring marquee matchups each Sunday night during the regular season. The games air on NBC and Peacock and anchor NBC Sports’ Sunday night programming lineup.
On Sunday, July 5, all 15 MLB games will be presented nationally across Peacock and NBC as part of a special all-day “Star-Spangled Sunday” showcase.
NBC Sports will also stream one out-of-market game each day of the 2026 MLB season nationally on Peacock. Telemundo Deportes will present all NBCUniversal-produced MLB games in Spanish, with Universo televising all games broadcast on NBC.
How to sign up for Peacock:
Sign up here to watch all of our LIVE sports, sports shows, documentaries, classic matches, and more. You’ll also get tons of hit movies and TV shows, Originals, news, 24/7 channels, and current NBC and Bravo hits for whatever suits your mood.
Why are some MLB games unavailable to stream on Peacock?
Due to territorial blackout restrictions, select regular season, special event, and Postseason games may be unavailable on Peacock. Television territory blackout restrictions apply regardless of whether a Club is home or away and regardless of whether a game is televised in that Club's home television territory. For more information, visit Peacock’s Help Center.
Syracuse took a 5-3 lead into the top of the seventh, but their bullpen gave up four runs over the final three innings of the game without any response from their lineup. If you’re looking for a silver lining, Jorge Polanco hit a home run and drew a walk as the Mets’ designated hitter in this one. It’s worth pointing out that he’s had one or more days off between each of his rehab appearances since starting his second attempt at a rehab assignment on June 27.
Binghamton trailed 2-0 when the eighth inning got underway, but they put up a four spot to take a two-run lead in the bottom of that inning. Douglas Orellana proceeded to have about as bad a night as a reliever can have, though, as he didn’t record a single out while giving up five runs—all earned—on four hits and a walk. Bowie tacked on a sixth run that was charged to fellow reliever Saul Garcia in the top of the ninth, and that was that.
Lost amid all of that was a very good outing from Max Green, whose story about overcoming the yips to pursue his dream is a good one.
Cyclones pitchers gave up at least one run in seven of the eight innings they pitched in this one, and Brooklyn’s four-run innings in the top of the fifth accounted for all of their runs while merely pulling them within one run of Frederick at the time.
With a 5-4 lead heading into the top of the ninth, St. Lucie saw relief pitcher Zack Mack give up three runs to swing the game in Tampa’s favor. This was not the best night for the Mets’ non-rookie-ball minor league teams.
May 23, 2026; Anaheim, California, USA; Texas Rangers pinch hitter Andrew McCutchen (4) reacts after strike out during the seventh inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images | Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images
The Atlanta Braves have reportedly agreed to a minor league deal with outfielder/designated hitter Andrew McCutchen. The 39-year-old has spent the 2026 season with the Texas Rangers, where he appeared in 37 games and averaged a subpar .192 at the plate. He was released at the end of May and according to the transaction log, was picked up by Atlanta on Thursday.
The move is a low-risk depth addition for an Atlanta club that has been searching for offensive consistency during a wave of injuries. While McCutchen is well past his prime, the former MVP brings plenty of veteran experience and could provide organizational depth as he aims for another opportunity in the majors.
More Braves News:
The Braves announced a roster move Thursday morning that recalled INF Jim Jarvis and designated INF Rowdy Tellez for assignment.
Atlanta suffered another series loss after dropping Thursday’s contest to the St. Louis Cardinals, 11-5.
Eric Hartman joined the 20/30 club after Wednesday’s contest. More in the minor league recap.
Today’s article will do a bit of a deep dive on George Soriano. This guy has seemingly come from nowhere to become a stalwart in the Cardinal bullpen. Not dissimilar to Ryan Fernandez in 2024 or Matt Svanson in 2025, a guy who could reasonably be considered unheralded, but still becomes a key member of the cadre.
Authors Note: I’m travelling over the 4th, so I had to do this article a fair bit in advance. The stats I cite are going to be over a week old by the time you read this. I’m not sure if the VEB hex applies when I write the article or when I publish, but George could crater in between and foul up the data. Such is life.
How unheralded? He came into 2026 with a career fWAR of -1.0, backed by career ERA and FIP figures exceeding 5.00. Across 3 years with Miami, he progressed from bad to worse, ending last year with an 8.35 ERA. He found himself on the Nationals roster and ultimately dealt to St. Louis for Andre Granillo. What did the Cardinals see that prompted them to swap out a low-grade prospect for him?
Here in St. Louis, he has filled a variety of roles all the way from chase reliever to high leverage. It hasn’t been perfect, but he is outperforming his career norms by a fair bit. Interestingly, he is not far off his Zips projection, which projected a 4.19 FIP with a 21.3% K rate and a 9.5% BB rate. So, I’m curious. What gives?
We’ll start with back of the baseball card stuff. George is carrying a 3.16 ERA with a relatively pedestrian 20.8% K rate. His 8.5% walk rate is a marked improvement from his career 10% rate. He has accumulated .1 fWAR. Further down, he has qualified for 11 shutdown (SD) appearances, which is 70th percentile among relievers with 30 or more IP (George has 30.1 IP). He has 4 meltdown (MD) appearances which is tied with a bunch of guys right at average for the league. For comparison, Justin Bruihl and JoJo Romero pace the league with 10 and 9 MD appearances. Thus, why he is rising up the trust scale.
Sidebar: Riley O’Brien is second overall in baseball with 20 SD appearances, behind only Cade Smith of Cleveland.
What is underneath this improved performance?
If we wander on over to Statcast/Baseball Savant, some interesting details emerge. Morsels to chew on, as it were.
Pitch Mix
Note his pitch mix vs. left and right-handed batters. This will come up later. In general, he is more FF and CH heavy against LH hitters and more SL and SI heavy against RH hitters.
Since joining StL, they’ve had him de-emphasize his SI and ST (sweeper). He has cut the sweeper use from 16% to 10%, and sinker use from almost 20 to 12%. The SL usage has increase from 16% to nearly 25% and he has upped his four-seamer (FF) usage from 18% to more than 25%. Subtle changes, but they appear to have had some success. Pitch mix is one of the places the Cardinals tinkered, but not the only.
Pitch effectiveness
To the left you see the current run values for his entire pitch mix. Looking at the blue, you can see why the Cardinals wanted to de-emphasize the Sinker (SI) and Sweeper (ST).
Mechanics
One of the things I found striking was now much the Cardinals influenced his arm angle. That 34 degree angle is new this year, up from 29 degrees in 2025. That is pitching lab stuff. In ways, given how late in the off-season they acquired him, I am surprised they were able to implement what is a fairly radical change, and be successful doing it.
It’s not clear how the arm angle has affected his pitch metrics, which have not really changed a lot even though the arm angle did.
Pitch Movement
That mechanical changes have produced a pitch movement profile that leaves me scratching my head a bit.
His 4-Seam Fastball (FF) is pretty average in terms of movement, although it does have 87th percentile velo, averaging 96.7 mph. The four-seam grades at 87 Stuff+, but the Sinker grades out at a nice 108+.
That ChangeUp? It has somewhat below average arm-side run, but well above average drop. That pitch could almost be called devastating. That Whiff% has climbed for 19.6% in 2025 to 41.8% this season. That change is particularly effective against LH hitters, allowing him to navigate the left-right lanes. It grades out as a 116 on Stuff+. Impressive.
The Slider (SL) is an odd one. Used mostly against RH hitters, it produces a near 40% whiff rate, but that is in line with career norms. The arm angle change seems to have produced less arm-side run and a bit more drop. It grades out as a 96 by Stuff+.
I can’t figure his Sweeper. It doesn’t sweep, but still gets a 40%+ whiff rate. How? No Stuff+ grade. I think because the sample size is too small.
His very average Sinker (SI) gets clobbered at an xwOBA of .622. Seems contradictory to a Stuff+ of 108.
Spin
George seems to tunnel his pitches well, which can improve the effectiveness of the mix. The fastballs and the change come out of a pitcher’s hand looking the same from a spin standpoint but act quite a bit differently as they approach the hitter.
Oddly, his sinker comes out with all different spins, almost all around the watch face. I don’t know if he is still tinkering with it or what, but that is a lot of inconsistency and probably helps explain why it is a mostly straight pitch, yet oddly effective.
Overall
Putting it all together, we can look at his overall performance against the rest of the league.
His fastballs (4-seam, sinker) perform at an average rate in terms of run value. Neither good nor bad, as do the breaking pitches. The Offspeed pitches (Sweeper, Change) provide most of his positive value, ranking in the 85th percentile. I’d opine here is where pitch mix is key … an average fastball combined with near-elite offspeed can make an effective pitcher if deployed properly.
Note the 81st percentile FB velocity, but also note that much of his very poor 8th percentile exit velo comes … off his fastballs.
He gets excellent chase and whiff, as noted above. Oddly, for all the excellent whiff numbers his K% rate is pretty pedestrian a 20.8%, probably not enough for a leverage reliever.
Concerns
Beyond the hard hit data just above, a few other concerns pop out in his profile.
His 2026 BABIP is running an extremely low .241. Now, in 3 of his 4 seasons, he has run really low BABIPs, so that may be normal for him, but the number itself suggests some luck is smiling on him in 2026 and regression could bite him, particularly since he doesn’t strike a lot of guys out.
On that vein, his 21% strike out rate and 9% walk rate result in a ~12% K-BB%, which really isn’t good enough for a leverage reliever. 15% is the number I use as a floor for a pitcher expected to pitch well reliably.
Summary
We like to say relievers are volatile. Well, every player is volatile to an extent, relievers just seem to be moreso. George may be the archetype of one form of reliever volatility.
A pitcher equipped with largely average stuff, with some above average offerings and some below. Nets to a Stuff+ of 101. Some years, such a pitcher will have good luck in sequencing or random and others years it will horrid luck. 2025 appears to have been his horrid year and 2026 appears to be the year the GOB are smiling upon him.
Jul 1, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Zack Wheeler (45) throws a pitch during the second inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
I don’t have a clever heat-related pun to use here. Did you know that the home run rate rises as the temperature does? You did? Well, that’s all I had. Onto the links.
Phillies news
Zack Wheeler was not happy that Don Mattingly pulled him in the fifth inning of his last start. The skipper lays out his case.
ATLANTA, GA - APRIL 15: Outfielder Drew Burress #8 of the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets leads off first base during the Spring Classic college baseball game between the Georgia Bulldogs and the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets on April 15, 2025 at Truist Park in Atlanta, GA. (Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Good morning, Camden Chatters.
If you’re one of the many fans who have found the Orioles exhausting to watch for most of the season, at least we’re getting ample breaks from the team this month. The O’s weekend series with the Reds is bookended with off days yesterday and Monday — because traveling to Cincinnati is particularly arduous, apparently? — and after a six-game homestand, the Birds will take four days off for the All-Star break.
We’re just over a week until the unofficial end to the first half, and not a moment too soon. The Orioles, unless they go a perfect 9-0 in their next three series, are guaranteed to have a losing record entering the break. It’s not the kind of season that any of us hoped we’d be seeing, so close on the heels of an equally disappointing 2025 campaign. This year was supposed to be different. It hasn’t been, and that stinks. We’ve written plenty about that already and will have to do so for a while longer if the Orioles’ freefall continues.
But for now let’s focus on the future — specifically, the MLB Draft, which begins next Saturday, July 11. The Orioles hold the seventh pick, and MLB.com’s latest mock draft projects them to select outfielder Drew Burress from Georgia Tech. Wait, you’re telling me the Orioles might select a college outfielder? Imagine that! Other possible candidates for that spot, according to MLB’s Jonathan Mayo, are Justin Lebron, Tyler Bell, Ryder Helfrick, Chris Hacopian, and Derek Curiel. I’m not convinced that all of those are real names.
As for Burress, he’s a 5-foot-9 center fielder who’s ranked as the #6 draft prospect by The Athletic’s Keith Law. Burress “swings hard, with excellent bat speed,” according to Law, who notes that his average exit velocity was in the 90th percentile of college hitters. Burress has “easy plus power” that belies his small frame, and Law projects him as a 20+ homer a year player who could stick in center field but might have to move to a corner spot. Yep, sounds like the Orioles’ type.
Of course, it’s much too early to write down Burress in pen as the Orioles’ pick. There’s just over a week until the draft and six teams picking ahead of them, so there’s plenty of different directions the O’s could go with their selection. I just wish the draft weren’t the only thing that qualifies as excitement in Birdland these days.
History in the making. I, for one, will never forget what I was doing when the Kyle Nicolas-for-Randal Diaz went down. I don’t know which player was the one the O’s traded and which one they acquired, but still.
Shortstop Roch Cholowsky is so highly regarded that he won’t drop to the #7 pick, ruining the possibility of having two Rochs on the Orioles circuit. Alas.
Orioles birthdays and history
Is today your birthday? Happy birthday! Three former Orioles were born on this day: right-hander Tommy Hunter (40), lefty Jeff Rineer (71), and the late outfielder Al Pilarcik (b. 1930, d. 2010).
July 3 used to be a pretty good day for the Orioles. At one point the O’s won 15 consecutive games on this date from 1961 to 1974, including three doubleheader sweeps. Through 1974, they had a 19-3 record all-time on July 3. But since then they’re 18-30 on this date, and have lost five of their last seven.
Random Orioles game of the day
On July 3, 1992, the Orioles beat the Twins, 6-1, at the Metrodome. Hall of Famer Mike Mussina, then in his second season, came within two outs of a complete game, somehow holding the Twins to just one run despite giving up 12 (!) hits. He made big pitches when he needed to, I suppose. The Orioles broke a scoreless tie in the fifth on back-to-back sacrifice flies, then removed all doubt with a four-run seventh inning that included RBI singles by Glenn Davis, Randy Milligan, and Joe Orsulak, and a run-scoring double from Mark McLemore.
After that game, the O’s and Twins had identical 46-32 records, with the Twins sitting in first place and the Orioles one game out, but neither would end up making the playoffs.
Sep 10, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA; General view of the helmet used by the Milwaukee Brewers before the start of the first inning against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Stan Szeto-Imagn Images | Stan Szeto-Imagn Images
Greetings, Brew Crew Ball community. Happy Fourth of July weekend! We’re now beyond the midpoint of the season, and just over a week away from the MLB Draft & All-Star break. The Brewers have weathered the first half of their gauntlet, but they still have the D-backs, Cardinals, and Pirates on deck for 11 games in the next 10 days.
Feel free to use this thread to chat about (almost) anything you want: video games, food, movies, non-baseball sports, the Brewers, you name it. As long as it’s appropriate and is allowed by our moderators, it’s fair game here.
Happy birthday to Codi Heuer, and a mighty host of others.
Today in baseball history, in 1966 – Pitcher Tony Cloninger hits two grand slams and drives in nine runs, as the Braves rout the Giants at Candlestick Park, 17-3. Cloninger is the first National League player to slam two in a game, and the first pitcher ever, and his nine RBIs are a major-league record for pitchers, breaking Vic Raschi‘s mark of seven, and other stories as well.
Today in baseball history:
1911 – At Philadelphia, the A’sFrank Baker hits for the cycle in a 5-1 win over the Yankees in the second game of a doubleheader.
1951 – Giants rookie Willie Mays blasts a 13th-inning solo homer off the Phillies’Jocko Thompson to give New York a win. It is Willie’s second extra-inning homer in two weeks.
1968 – Luis Tiant registers 19 K’s in ten innings, as Cleveland beats Minnesota, 1-0. Tiant sets two modern major league records – most strikeouts in a ten-inning game; and 32 strikeouts in consecutive games – and ties the modern major-league record of 41 strikeouts in three successive appearances.
2009 – Albert Pujols, the major league home run leader, hits his fourth grand slam of the year, a team record, as the Cardinals dispose of the Reds, 7-4. He now has 350 career dingers, becoming the third-youngest to reach the mark, after Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr.
2021 – Harmon Killebrew falls off the top ten home run list as Jim Thome goes deep twice for the Twins to give Thome 574 dingers in the big leagues.
1960 – A day after his wedding in Chicago, Jim O’Toole pitches and loses, as the Cubs pound him for seven runs and nine hits in less than five innings. Chicago wins, 7-5. An unsympathetic manager Fred Hutchinson deadpans: “It was his turn to pitch. I didn’t tell him to get married.”
1970 – At Chicago’sWrigley Field, Gene Alley and Roberto Clemente each hit two homers to help the visiting Bucs outlast their hosts, 16-14. This slugfest also numbers a game-tying, 2nd-inning grand slam by Chicago’s Billy Williams among its eight homers and 70 total bases. Mother Nature, however, has to get a good deal of credit for the day’s offensive production; clearly, the “Windy City” has earned its sobriquet today. “It blew fourteen miles per hour toward center,” reports the Chicago Tribune, “prompting Clemente to all but apologize for his first homer.” “I just tapped the ball,” Clemente tells the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. “There was no way that ball should have gone out of here. The wind was blowing to left, to center, to right. Everywhere it was blowing, it was for the hitter.”
1775 – George Washington takes command of Continental Army at Cambridge, Massachusetts.
1861 – Pony Express arrives in San Francisco with overland letters from NY.
1863 – Battle of Gettysburg, the largest battle ever fought on the American continent, ends in a major victory for the Union during the US Civil War.
1886 – In Germany, Karl Benz first drives the first automobile in Mannheim at a top speed of 16 km/h (10 mph).
1928 – John Logie Baird demonstrates the first color television transmission in London.
1931 – German boxer Max Schmeling beats American Young Stribling by TKO in 15 in Cleveland in his first heavyweight title defense; first major fight broadcast live on national radio.
2004 – Official opening of Bangkok’s subway system.
2025 – Archaeologists announce the discovery of a 3,500-year-old ancient city in Peru named Peñico.