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The first half of the season is always when the 81st game is played, but many use the All-Star Game as a line of demarcation to divide the season into halves. Since we are there now and the “first half” / complete, now seems a good time to ask this question.

These are just some of the candidates to choose from, so maybe you have someone different. Maybe it’s the manager!

For years, as stars such as Shohei Ohtani and Bryce Harper pleaded for the chance to play in the Los Angeles Olympics, and for Major League Baseball to back up its talk of growing the game internationally by participating in the world’s greatest sporting festival, the league was reluctant: Would the owners truly benefit from shutting down the season for a week and lending their best players to an event beyond their control?

Now that MLB is on board, the league wants the players to make an extraordinary commitment to back up their talk: If you’re selected to play in the Olympics, you must play. Or else.

The “or else” is not rhetorical. If a player is not on the injured list and is selected for the Olympics but declines to participate, the player would be subject to fine and/or suspension. In addition, the players would be ineligible to play for the first 14 days when the season resumes after the Olympics, according to a proposal from the commissioner’s office to the players’ union and obtained by The Times.

Under a tentative MLB plan, the first half of the 2028 season would end on July 9, with the All-Star Game on July 11. The Olympic baseball competition would start on July 13, with the second half of the season starting on July 21.

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So as to discourage placement on the injured list as a way to avoid playing in the Games, a player selected for the Olympics but on the injured list as of July 9 would be excused, but he could not be reinstated to his team’s major league roster until Aug. 4, even if he had recovered from the injury before then.

“We went down the road on LA 2028 because we saw it as a unique opportunity to market the sport with our very, very best players,” Commissioner Rob Manfred said Tuesday in a meeting with the Baseball Writers Assn. of America.

“It is a disruptive undertaking for us … If we’re disrupting an entire season and we’re going to undertake that effort, we want our very best out there, so that people see how great our game really is.”

The league also does not want to undermine its All-Star Game, and it is reasonably foreseeable that some players might wish to skip the All-Star Game for a two-day summer break if they are going to play the next week at the Olympics.

In that scenario, under its proposal, the league would have the right to declare the player ineligible for the Olympics, and the player would be subject to fine and/or suspension as well as ineligibility for the first 14 days of the second half.

Bruce Meyer, the executive director of the players’ union, said the MLBPA plans a counterproposal.

“They want to make it mandatory for players who are selected to appear at the All-Star Game and the Olympics,” Meyer said Tuesday. “The proposals that they made in terms of what the discipline would be, the ramifications if a player doesn’t want to do that, in our view, are extreme.”

To use a Dodgers example, Yoshinobu Yamamoto was selected for this year’s All-Star Game, but Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said last week that he would not pitch.

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Given that situation in 2028, if Yamamoto wished to pitch for Japan, he would have to be available for the All-Star Game. If not, Japan could lose him for the Olympics, and the Dodgers could lose him for his first two starts of the second half.

Meyer said the union is in “a very early stage of discussions” with the league. It is unclear how much time might be needed to resolve the issue, as well as what Meyer called “travel and accommodation” issues, which involve LA28.

It also is uncertain how long MLB would be willing to wait before committing to an All-Star site and date, although the league moved the 2021 game from Atlanta to Denver three months before the game date. San Francisco is expected to host the 2028 game, in large part because Los Angeles is a short flight away for an Olympic competition that would start two days later.

It is clear, however, that the league is getting tired of not always securing participation from marquee players in marquee events. The “you can’t pitch in the All-Star Game if you pitched on the previous Sunday” rule was intended to protect pitchers.

“It’s clear to me that teams are managing their pitching in a way to take advantage of the Sunday pitcher rule,” Manfred said. “I do think it’s really important that we always re-evaluate our approach to the All-Star Game in order to get the very, very best players that can participate in that game.”

The World Baseball Classic was a smashing success this year, even as the United States started a rookie pitcher in the championship game. Do we really need to mandate player participation in the Olympics, especially since so many great players already have said they want to be there?

“The WBC takes place at a point in time that the players are just beginning to ramp up for the season,” Manfred said. “There’s a whole host of reasons why, at that point in the calendar, players might not be ready to play.

“In contrast, the schedule for the Olympics is going to cover days that players otherwise would be playing in major league games — if they’re not on an injured list, they’d be out there playing. That is a huge difference.”

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In another column, we could argue the merits of moving the final round of the WBC — the semifinals and championship game — to July, when players “otherwise would be playing in major league games.” That would grow the game, too.

But that is for another day. It would be absurd for MLB to miss out on the global marketing platform that is the Olympics. The issues MLB raises are legitimate; the solutions need not be so draconian.

The opening ceremonies in Los Angeles take place two years from Tuesday. The Olympics have taught us this about boycotts: No matter how worthy the cause, no one pays attention once the Games start. The Soviet Union boycotted the L.A. Games in 1984, and we had a grand time without the Russians.

No one cares if you’re not there. In MLB, a star-studded core wants to be there. Seize the moment.

Sign up for more Dodgers news with Dodgers Dugout. Delivered at the start of each series.

This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.

The Cincinnati Reds, on the whole, are having a pretty miserable season. They sit nine games under .500 and in last place in their division, with even an outside shot at one of the myriad Wild Card spots painfully out of reach.

They’ve dealt with injuries galore. Hunter Greene and Elly De La Cruz, the team’s two stalwarts and usual All Stars, each was shelved. The team’s entire back-end up of the bullpen hit the infirmary, while blisters have dogged starters Brady Singer and Nick Lodolo (2x) repeatedly. Even the indomitable Eugenio Suarez missed a month with an oblique strain, while CF has been a revolving door of hard-luck injury and underperformance, too.

Just about the only two spots on the roster where we’ve been able to know exactly what to expect everyday have been those of Chase Burns and Sal Stewart, a pair of former 1st round picks by the Reds who’ve been forced to immediately graduate from ‘youth movement’ to ‘literally carrying the team’ this season.

Burns and Stewart will rep the Cincinnati Reds in tonight’s MLB All Star Game, which will begin at some point after coverage starts at 8 PM ET in Philadelphia on FOX. They’ll do so as incredibly deserving participants, too.

Burns rolls into the break having posted 4.2 bWAR across 18 brilliant starts. He’s 11-1 with a 2.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 10.3 K/9 across 102.2 IP, his ERA+ a sterling 173. The 4.2 bWAR has him tied for the 4th most valuable pitcher in the sport so far this season with Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski, while FanGraphs (2.9 fWAR) ranks him as the 8th most valuable. Not bad!

Sal, meanwhile, leads all rookies with 65 ribbies, a mark that’s tied with Pete Alonso for 9th most in the sport – and that’s with the Reds having spent most of the season with a blind bat holding a wet noodle in the leadoff spot in front of him. He has socked 19 homers, making him one of just six players in the sport to have hit that many and stolen at least 10 bases – he’s got 11 – alongside Zach Neto, CJ Abrams, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Miguel Vargas, James Wood, and Home Run Derby champ Jordan Walker. Overall, he’s hitting .256/.338/.474 with a 120 OPS+.

Neither will start the game, and Burns – who’s dealing with a minor groin problem he picked up playing defense in his final start of the first half – won’t participate at all. Sal, though, will hopefully get some run at some point late in this one.

Here’s how both the AL and NL will line up to start:

Villa Park, California native Andrew James Krodel attended the eponymously named high school in the district, lettering three years with the Spartans. In total, he hit .288/.356/.352 in 80 games and posted a 3.70 ERA in 98.1 innings, allowing 91 hits, walking 29, and striking out 90. The numbers, nor the fastball that hovered around 90 MPH, got him very little buzz in the baseball hot bed that is California and as such, the right-hander went uncalled in the 2023 MLB Draft, attending the University of California Santa Barbara that fall.

Krodel appeared in 3 games for the Gauchos in his freshman season, allowing 4 earned runs in 3.2 innings- a 9.82 ERA- giving up 2 hits, walking 3, and striking out 4. He pitched for the Cowlitz Black Bears of the West Coast League that summer and had a more impressive showing for himself, posting a 2.25 ERA in 24.0 innings over 7 games, allowing 17 hits, walking 13, and striking out 16. When he returned to Santa Barbara, head coach Checketts gave the sophomore a little more leeway, but his performance was still subpar. Appearing in 11 games, the right-hander posted a 6.18 ERA in 27.2 innings, allowing 23 hits, walking 17, and striking out 37.

That summer, Krodel supplemented his workload by pitching for a summer collegiate league, this time staying local and playing for the Santa Barbara Foresters of the California Collegiate League, playing with fellow 2026 draftee Aidan Keenan and 2025 Mets draft 13th rounder Frank Camarillo. Once again, against the competition there, the right-hander thrived, posting a 1.74 ERA in 31.0 innings over 7 starts, allowing 22 hits, walking 9, and striking out 44. Despite his success as a starter, pitching limited innings against an entire lineup, coach Checketts had the right-hander remain in the Gauchos bullpen for the 2026 season. The right-hander ended up appearing in 25 games and posting a 5.66 ERA in 35.0 innings, allowing 42 hits, walking 17, and striking out 42.

The 6’4”, 200-pound right-hander throws from a high-three-quarters arm slot with a long arm action through the back and above-average extension off the mound. The right-hander throws a four-pitch mix despite primarily pitching out of the bullpen, utilizing a two-seam fastball, slider, curveball, and circle changeup.

His two-seam fastball has below-average velocity, sitting in the low-90s and very rarely topping out much higher. Despite that, the pitch has been an effective offering thanks to its rare combination of below-average spin rates but above-average induced vertical break readings. Thanks to the active spin the baseball does get, the pitch produces seam shifted wake effects that causes it to appear to resist gravity while breaking arm-side, diving late.

Of the pitches he complements his unique fastball with, his circle changeup is likely the best of the bunch. Sitting in the low-to-mid-80s, the pitch has racked up strikeouts against left-handed hitters and right-handed hitters alike thanks to its extreme arm-side fade. His mid-to-high-70s curveball and high-70s-to-low-80s sweeping slider both show some promise, especially his slider, but are both are still very raw as pitches, relying more on overall movement than the sharpness of the break.

Just as batters have had a hard time dealing with the movement on his pitch mix, striking out at a 27.1% over his three years combined with the Gauchos, Krodel generally has trouble commanding his repertoire. The right-hander often misses his spots, leading to a high 12.1% walk rate over the course of his collegiate career, almost 5% higher than the MLB average. Being unable to command his pitches has often caused the right-hander to try to finesse them into the strike zone, often leading to pitches in hittable parts of the strike zone and disastrous results. Batters hit .263/.366/.435 against him with a .351 BABIP, with a poor 36.7% groundball rate, 15.3% line drive rate, 48.0% flyball rate, and 14.9% HR/FB rate.

The Yankees are riding high into the All-Star break on the back of a three-game sweep of the Nationals, overcoming a deficit in the eighth inning or later in all three games for the first time since they were the Highlanders sweeping the Cleveland Naps in 1910. However, we have to go back a game further for the unequivocal selection for AB of the Week. In the final game of the pivotal four-game series against the Rays, Ryan McMahon won a 12-pitch AB against typical Yankee Killer Drew Rasmussen to spark their eventual six-run outburst and win to split the series.

We join McMahon with no outs in the top of the third, Max Schuemann standing on second after leading off with a double. The Rays lead, 1-0, courtesy of a Junior Caminero solo shot in the first. McMahon has returned to the starting lineup after starting on the bench the previous two games with the Rays throwing out a pair of lefty starters, and just his glove alone at the hot corner is a welcome sight.

Rasmussen entered this contest with a career 0.89 ERA against the Yankees in nine starts. Stylistically he is similar to Cam Schlittler in that he throws his three fastballs a combined 80-percent of the time, relying on the divergent movement profiles of the four-seamer, sinker, and cutter to create deception for the batter. He starts this AB looking to front-door a sinker for a called strike.

He achieves just that, starting this pitch as a ball in off the plate and allowing its 16 inches of arm-side run to tail it back across the inside edge of the zone. McMahon gives up on the pitch early assuming it will be a ball inside only to watch the movement carry it into the strike zone for called strike one.

Now that he has shown McMahon an inside fastball that moves back toward the plate, it’s time for the fastball that breaks in the opposite direction. He attempts to start a cutter down the same tunnel as the first pitch, which should get McMahon to chase in off the plate after watching the previous sinker land for a strike.

This is a pretty good take by McMahon. The cutter looks like a strike down and in out of Rasmussen’s hand, but McMahon must have picked up the movement pretty soon out of Rasmussen’s hand because he reads it all the way as it cuts away from the plate for ball one inside.

Follow two straight inside fastballs to open the AB, Rasmussen has the situation for a changeup down and away — it should look like a heater right down the middle before diving down arm-side.

Oh man, McMahon missed a cookie here. They say you might only get one good pitch to hit per AB and it looks like this was the one. Rasmussen misses his spot badly with the changeup and leaves this one belt high down Broadway. However, McMahon cannot take advantage of what is effectively a batting practice fastball and slashes it foul straight back — right on time with the swing but not precise enough with the barrel.

After failing to punish that mistake, McMahon is in trouble, 1-2. His focus now should center solely on hitting something to the right side to advance the runner to third and pass the baton to the next batter.

Rasmussen changes speeds back up to the four-seamer after seeing that McMahon’s swing timing is synced to the changeup. He nails his spot out over the plate but just above the zone, yet McMahon is still able to fire off a strong swing, his barrel again just under this pitch to foul it back to the zone as the four-seamer does not drop the way that the sinker and cutter McMahon has already seen did.

Rasmussen succeeded in getting McMahon to chase a four-seamer just above the zone, so the logical choice here is to climb the ladder a rung higher and see if he can get the chase and whiff this time.

Fortunately for McMahon, Rasmussen overthrows this four-seamer and it sails up out of the zone about head high, making for a pretty straightforward take despite an initial temptation to swing.

That take on a four-seamer above the zone informs Rasmussen’s next pitch selection. If he can throw a sinker that looks like a ball high out of the hand, McMahon should give up on the pitch only watch in drop into the zone for called strike three.

Rasmussen executes that pitch plan to perfection, but McMahon is all over this sinker, fouling it straight back to the screen. It’s impressive diagnosis of the pitch to recognize that he has to foul it off to avoid getting punched out looking.

With McMahon showing a renewed willingness to offer at a fastball that starts as a ball above the zone, Rasmussen reverses his course looking to get the hitter to whiff beneath the elevated four-seamer with the movement profile of the sinker he just fouled off still fresh in his mind.

Once again McMahon is able to fight off this pitcher’s pitch foul to keep the AB alive. You can see by the way he fouls it off the handle of the bat that he is anticipating a sinker’s movement toward the right-handed hitter’s batter’s box, but the four-seamer flies straight and he gets jammed.

The last four fastballs that Rasmussen has thrown all exhibit arm-side movement, so he has created an opportunity to deceive McMahon with the glove-side-breaking cutter.

This is definitely the most impressive swing from McMahon to this point. I do not know how he is able to make the immediate adjustment in eye level to a fastball down and in and breaking toward him after fouling off three heaters at the top of the zone. It’s another near-flawless pitch from Rasmussen on the corner, but McMahon’s confidence is growing with each pitch he spoils.

Now that Rasmussen has reminded McMahon that he can throw an inside fastball that breaks further in, he feels he can freeze him with a four-seamer up and in as McMahon should be anticipating a cutter to handcuff him in off the plate.

That’s two straight pitches command right to the corners but it’s the same result from McMahon. You can see from the way he pulls his hands in that he’s thinking this is another cutter and he therefore needs to make an extra effort to stay inside the pitch.

Rasmussen has now thrown six straight fastballs, so despite having failed to execute the changeup earlier on, he might have a little more margin of error with the off-speed having sped McMahon’s bat up to fastball speed.

Rasmussen again leaves this changeup elevated but somewhat fortuitously gets it to the corner up and away. McMahon is pretty early with his swing after all those fastballs and can count himself lucky that he is just able to tip a piece of the ball foul off the end of the bat to stay alive.

It’s not until the 11th pitch of the AB that Rasmussen finally throws his first breaking ball. His intention is to start it off the plate and break it back across the outside edge for a called strike three, and McMahon should be frozen after seeing so many heaters over the plate.

The fact that McMahon is tempted to chase this pitch tells me he has been secretly hunting a breaking ball this whole time. He finally gets one and almost loses his discipline before reading the pitch just in time and halting his swing.

It’s taken a monumental effort from McMahon to this point to work the count full. He knows Rasmussen does not want to walk him, so he can pretty reliably hunt a fastball in the zone, likely up given the way Rasmussen has attacked the top of the zone with heaters to this point.

McMahon gets the pitch he is looking for and does everything the situation requires of him. He pulls the ball, meaning at the very worst it’s a productive AB to advance the runner to third. However, he’s finally able to fire off a swing with some authority rather than a fight-off swing to stay alive. He gets the barrel directly to this cutter up and out over the plate, managing to keep this ball fair down the right field line to plate Schuemann as the tying run.

Here’s the full AB:

Where do I even begin with this incredible effort from McMahon? For starters, it’s such a professional AB, swinging at all the pitches that are in the zone or are too close to take while laying off the three balls that are intended for him to chase. It’s fabulous pitch recognition to identify five different pitch types, anticipate their movement, and tailor his swing path and timing to make contact, especially when you consider the location of many of the pitches — just look at how many Rasmussen was able to command to the edges of the zone, yet McMahon was able to fight every one of them off foul to stay alive! There was never a moment of panic in McMahon’s approach, allowing him to keep a level head and do damage with a controlled swing when he finally got a pitch he could hit McMahon winning the 12-pitch marathon proved the turning point in the game, the floodgates immediately opening for the Yankees to score six in the frame and hand Rasmussen by far his worst start against them.

McMahon is poised to play an important role for the Yankees down the stretch. As the failed experiments of Amed Rosario and José Caballero at third have shown, they absolutely need a reliable defender at the hot corner capable of making all the routine plays and even a handful of spectacular ones, and there are few third baseman in the league better equipped for those duties than McMahon. What’s more, since returning from a throat infection that landed him on the sidelines for two weeks, McMahon looks way more in control in the batter’s box, posting a 148 wRC+ in eight appearances off the IL. If that can continue, he quietly becomes one of the Yankees’ most valuable all around players.

The Colorado Rockies are a team in the midst of a rebuild. With this in mind, the staff at Purple Row thought it would be useful to revisit the “State of the Position” series that we ran in March to see where things stand. We’ve asked authors of the spring articles to re-evaluate their earlier remarks with an eye toward the August 3 trade deadline.

The state of the Rockies’ starting rotation is, well, less than ideal as we reach the midpoint of the 2026 season.

To put it in perspective, Colorado’s starters rank 30th in ERA, 30th in WHIP, 29th in K/9, 30th in H/9, and 16th in BB/9. Some of that is to be expected. Pitching at Coors Field is an inherently difficult challenge, thanks to the combination of altitude and the vast outfield dimensions.

Even with those caveats, however, the rotation has fallen well short of expectations. Too often, it has struggled to keep the Rockies in games, putting the club at an early disadvantage.

It wasn’t supposed to go this way.

The offseason plan, the first under Paul DePodesta’s front office, was built on a specific bet: durability. Tomoyuki Sugano, José Quintana, and Michael Lorenzen were signed to one-year deals precisely because they take the ball — the trio averaged 26 ⅓ starts a season over the previous two years. Paired with Kyle Freeland, they were supposed to guarantee that the Rockies never had to start someone who couldn’t hold a major league job. Instead, availability — the one thing this group was supposed to provide — is exactly what has fallen apart.

The injuries came for everyone

Quintana hasn’t pitched since late May, when a left elbow sprain sent him to the 60-day injured list. Sugano was scratched from his scheduled July 4 start and placed on the 15-day IL with back spams. Chase Dollander, one of the two real upside plays this rotation has, underwent an internal brace procedure on his right elbow on June 22 and won’t pitch again until 2027.

The backup depth got hit, too. Tanner Gordon (hip impingement) and Ryan Feltner (right ulnar nerve inflammation) both spent time on the IL, while McCade Brown has been sidelined by shoulder inflammation since late March without throwing a pitch this season.

The veterans who stayed healthy haven’t held up their end

Freeland’s season has been the most difficult to watch. The franchise leader in career innings pitched carries an ERA above seven through 17 starts, and he hasn’t resembled himself since returning from a shoulder issue of his own. The 170 innings he needs to vest his 2027 option is, at this pace, out of reach. The lone bright spot came in June, when he became the second pitcher to reach 1,000 strikeouts in a Rockies uniform.

Lorenzen’s first half was, for stretches, the roughest of any starter in baseball. He leads the majors in hits allowed, and his home/road splits have undercut the theory that his eight-pitch mix would translate to altitude. There is a real trend worth nothing though: Over his last seven starts, he’s posted a 3.22 ERA. It’s not dominance, but it’s the first sustained stretch that looks like the pitcher Colorado thought it signed.

Then there’s Sugano, who has been the staff’s most reliable arm — and has done it backwards. The 36-year-old is 8-4 with a 4.80 ERA, built on a 4.14 ERA in seven starts at Coors Field, with most of the damage coming on the road. In a season where the organization is starving for any pitching lesson that travels, its most interesting data point is a command-and-mix veteran thriving at altitude. His back injury is reportedly minor, but every start he misses goes to someone who probably shouldn’t be making it.

Feltner has been the plan that actually worked

Feltner won a rotation spot out of camp, validating the offseason strength work that was supposed to put his lost 2025 behind him. Right ulnar nerve inflammation cost him five weeks in the middle of the first half — poorly timed for a pitcher re-establishing himself.

But he’s made the layoff look like a footnote. Since returning in late May, he has been arguably the Rockies’ most dependable starter, posting a 3.74 ERA across eight starts. He is also the only member of the Opening Day rotation under club control beyond this season — which makes him less a nice story than the lone bridge.

Dollander, the other camp arm with long-term upside, saw his season end before he could truly make his own case — leaving Feltner as the last man standing from what was supposed to be the rotation’s future-facing competition. Gordon has filled his familiar swingman role when healthy, while Antonio Senzatela and Jimmy Herget — the two spring wildcards — both settled into the bullpen, the outcome that always seems likeliest.

The future arrived early, ready or not

The injuries dragged the prospect timeline forward by months. Sean Sullivan (No. 8 PuRP) got the first call and struggled, surrendering 22 earned runs across 22.1 innings before being optioned back to Albuquerque — a reminder that the gap between the Pacific Coast League and Coors Field is wider than a plane ride.

Gabriel Hughes (No. 12 PuRP) is the more encouraging test case. Selected on July 1, the former first-round pick made the first start of his career Wednesday at Dodger Stadium — opposite Roki Sasaki — and turned in the kind of outing the final score undersells in a 4-3 loss. He velocity is up from a year ago, the strikeouts followed in Albuquerque, and he now has a three-month audition to prove he belongs in the 2027 rotation.

What the second half is really about

Here is the uncomfortable math underneath all of it: Freeland, Sugano, Lorenzen, and Quintana are all headed to free agency this winter. Felnter is the only starter who projects to open 2027 in the rotation. The most expensive free-agent pitching class since Jorge De La Rosa was never a foundation — it was scaffolding, and it comes down in October, no matter what happens between now and then.

That makes the trade deadline, not the standings, the story of the second half. Any healthy veteran becomes the front office’s clearest chance to turn this season into something with a longer shelf life. And the auditions — Hughes, Sullivan, maybe eventually Brown — become the competition that actually matters: the one for jobs that won’t exist until next spring.

The question in March was whether this rotation was better. The midseason answer is: barely, briefly, and not where it counts. The better question now is whether anything from the first half — Sugano’s Coors formula, Feltner’s return, Hughes’ arrival — is something the Rockies can keep.

Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!

Inspiration.

On Saturday, I was optimistic about who the Diamondbacks drafted in the first round: Ryder Helfrick and Blake Bryant.

“Helfrick is the best defensive catcher in the class… If they stick, the [batting] improvements [better swing decisions and moved away from the plate] this year give him a chance to be an All-Star.” — Keith Law

“Bryant really looks the part of a future No. 2 starter,…” — Keith Law

I wondered about two questions.

• What are the chances they will reach the Majors? 
• What are the chances they will make a positive impact?

Let’s look at all the first-round picks by the Diamondbacks after Mike Hazen was the GM.

How often do first-round picks reach the Majors?

In recent years, for all the teams, in general about 81% of first-round draftees reached the Majors (for at least one game) per JJ Cooper’s Baseball America article.

Looking at the players drafted in the first round after Mike Hazen became GM, 7 of 10 draftees (70%) made it to the Majors within 3 seasons of being drafted (ignoring the unsigned Matt McLain).  Also, an eighth draftee (Blake Walston) made it in 5 seasons.  70% is a little below average, but seemed like an acceptable result.    

The position player chances were higher than pitcher chances (83% vs 50%).  Given the known problem with pitcher development, which is being addressed, that difference seems to make sense.

In each of the next three seasons, two first-round picks by the Diamondbacks will reach their third season, and they will likely significantly impact the percentages that reached the Majors.

How often do first-round picks make a positive impact?

My view is that accumulating at least one Baseball-Reference Win-Above-Replacement (bWAR) will accomplish a positive impact.  Although that view is possibly a low bar, and although a replacement level player can make a small impact, that is where I drew a demarcation line.

Looking at the players drafted in the first round after Mike Hazen became GM, 3 of 10 draftees made a positive impact.   They were Corbin Carroll, Drey Jameson, and Bryce Jarvis.  I was surprised that 2 of the 3 were pitchers!   Perhaps the story is more complex than it appeared!

Drafting Corbin Carroll was like winning a jackpot.  So far, he has earned 18.9 bWAR, making his impact far above all the other Diamondbacks first-round draftees.  In addition, his performance earned the Diamondbacks an extra draft pick, which was used to draft Ryan Waldschmidt.

Could other first-round draftees make an impact in the future?

In a 3-step process, I estimated the future impact of each draftee. Opinions on future impact differ widely.

• Estimated each player’s future bWAR for the Diamondbacks. 
• Subtracted bWAR equivalent to their salary divided by $9 million per bWAR.
• Rounded the result to acknowledge the huge uncertainty in the estimate.

Three of the seven first-round draftees who did not make an impact, could make an impact in the future. They were Ryan Waldschmidt,  Jordan Lawlar, and Tommy Troy. IF that optimistic impact happens, the percentage of first-round draftees who made an impact could possibly increase from 30% to 60%.

Two tables show the first-round draftees.

Looking at the players drafted in the first round after Mike Hazen became GM, the following table shows the first-round draftees who made it to the Majors.

Looking at the players drafted in the first round after Mike Hazen became GM, the following table shows the first-round draftees who have not yet made it to the Majors.

Data from Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, and MLBcom.

Summary.

Looking at the 10 players drafted in the first round after Mike Hazen became GM:

• 7 draftees reached the Majors within 3 seasons.
• 3 draftees made an impact of at least 1 bWAR.  I was surprised that 2 of the 3 were pitchers.
• My optimistic estimate is that an additional 3 draftees could possibly make an impact of at least 1 bWAR.
• Corbin Carroll made the largest impact, with 18.9 bWAR and his performance earned the Diamondbacks an additional draft pick.

The 2026 MLB Draft is in the books and the Atlanta Braves had a huge year with a lot of interesting players to follow. The Braves held their highest pick since 2019 and with that and their extra pick due to the Prospect Promotion Incentive, they had a massive bonus pool to work with that they are expected to spread across numerous hands. The biggest of those will be 9th overall pick AJ Gracia (Draft Report | My Take). While Gracia will demand a high bonus he is still expected to come in well below the slot value at the 29th pick, freeing up a load of money for the slew of high school players the Braves are targeting.

Another savings pick is 26th overall surprise selection Carter Beck (draft report). Beck will receive at least $2,684,100 due to the rule that players who attend the draft combine and submit a physical must receive at least 75% of their slot value for a bonus, however Beck is not expected to get much over that numbers. These numbers are all going to be significant as the Braves selected seven later round high school players that are expected or to at least could receive over slot bonuses. The highly drafted guys will absolutely get big money. For the following players click on their names to view their draft day report. Kaiden McCarthy, Jensen Hirschkorn, Cole Dennis, Tyson Grulkowski, and Jack Brenner are all going to get significant bonuses, especially the first three of that group. Ryne Barker in the 11th round is also going to be a tough sign away from a Texas Tech commitment, and 13th round pick Cole Dorland has to be swayed away from a chance to attend Alabama. These players will stretch the bonus pool of the Braves, but with the lack of any late shot-in-the-dark picks the Braves should still be expected to sign all 21 players drafted. We are likely to get a slow trickle of bonuses for top guys announced over the next two weeks, though the Braves typically make quick work of their signings and are going to announce the full signing class likely within that two-week timeframe. In the meantime we seek to be a hub for all of the announcements and rumors prior to the official blue box from the Atlanta Braves. For the list of signing rules if you are unfamiliar, scroll past the spreadsheet below, though for those that are familiar there are no rule changes this year. The official signing deadline is July 27th at 5:00 pm ET.

To know a little about each player, I encourage you to read the fantastic write up by our draft expert Matt Powers here. He does fantastic work every single year and is the backbone of our pre-draft and draft day coverage.

Now to the signing rules. For those of you following for the first time or in need of a reminder, the MLB draft signing is structured significantly different to other sports leagues. Each pick is assigned a specific value, and the sum of that value is the amount a team is allotted to spend total across all of their selections.

For the first ten rounds of the draft every dollar spent counts against the teams total bonus pool, and for picks after the tenth the signing bonus allotment is $150,000 with any amount over that being charged against the pool. For example, if the 11th round pick gets $500,000, $350,000 of that would count towards the bonus pool. The bonus pool is not a strict limit, and the Braves should be expected to go over that by anywhere from 1-5%. In that range the penalty for overage is just a tax on the signing bonus. However, any amount over 5% will induce a penalty of future draft picks, so teams have never in the history of this format exceeded that mark, but will often come within a few dollars of it. The total pool as well as the 5% overage is labeled in the chart.

A strategy for the Braves to save money to spread around to multiple players is to take a couple of highly drafted players who will sign for well below the value of the pick. Another is to take senior college players in the middle rounds, in the Braves case this season rounds eight through ten, and then throw small bonuses (usually just a few thousand dollars) that they can’t really turn down as they lack the leverage of returning to school. The savings will go to entice younger players away from commitments to university, a task that has become a bit more daunting in the NIL era of college spots.

One other applicable rule to this draft is the contingency bonus. It’s a bit of an accounting trick, a $2,500 portion of the bonus that does not count against the bonus pool. The players still get this money no matter what, but the Braves typically report numbers like $997,500 to save that little bit of extra penalty and keep themselves under the 5% margin. This is a pretty minor squabble with the big bonus guys, but when you see a senior sign that gets, say, $7,500 it is important to remember there is a solid chunk of money going to that player that isn’t directly reported by that “official” number.

The final major rules relate to unsigned picks. The Braves have likely already locked down specific bonuses with top players, so barring a late NIL push or a failed physical it is a near guarantee that the top 10 rounds will sign. In the event of this occurring, if the player decides not to sign the Braves would lose slot value from the total pool. In the case of a player like Gracia, who would be expected to save them a chunk of money, this could throw their entire draft into disarray, but typically a team is aware of any medical or commitment concerns before the draft and players not signing inside the first ten rounds is exceedingly rare. It can be a bit tougher with high school guys, but with the Braves going the college route in the first round there is no realistic chance that they are going to see their draft blown up by a lost signee.

However, it does happen, like in 2018 when Carter Stewart and the Braves failed to come to terms. In that case, within the first two rounds the team (assuming they offered at least 40% of the slot value) would receive a pick in the following draft one pick later than this draft. So in Gracia’s case, the Braves would get the 10th pick in 2027 if he did not sign. For a third round pick that does not sign, a replacement selection would be wrapped in at the end of the third round as a compensation pick.

Jamie Aloy, who was drafted by the San Francisco Giants in the 48th round of the 1999 MLB Draft out of the University of Hawaii at Manoa, had two sons and both followed in his footsteps, pursing baseball not just as a passion or hobby, but as a profession. His eldest son, Wehiwa Kapahulehua, attended the University of Arkansas and was drafted by the Baltimore Orioles with the 31st overall pick in the 2025 MLB Draft, where he is one of their top prospects. His youngest son, Kuhio Kamakanawehiwamaikalewa, was just drafted by the Mets. Kuhio attended Henry Perrine Baldwin High School in Wailuku, Hawaii, overlapping with his brother’s time there in 2022. Graduating in 2023, he struck out on his own and attended Brigham Young University.

The outfielder spent a single season with the Cougars, appearing in 52 games and hitting .269/.329/.447 with 9 doubles, 1 triple, 8 home runs, and 20 walks to 62 strikeouts, good for a 84 wRC+. He entered the transfer portal and transferred to the University of Arkansas; the season prior, his brother had done the same thing, and now they were once again playing together. Head coach Van Horn often penciled the two brothers into the line-up back-to-back, and multiple times over the course of the season, the two hit back-to-back home runs, or homered in the same inning, or drove each other in. In total, Kuhio appeared in 61 games for his new team and hit .317/.404/.539 with 15 doubles, 13 home runs, and 31 walks to 77 strikeouts, good for a 120 wRC+. That summer, as Wehiwa was being drafted and getting ready to begin his career as a professional in Delmarva, Kuhio was playing for the Bourne Braves of the Cape Cod Baseball League. In 16 games for them, he hit .333/.463/.500 with 3 doubles, 2 home runs, and 12 walks to 16 strikeouts. He had intended on playing for them longer, but a hand injury prompted him to withdraw from the team early.

Kuhio returned to the University of Arkansas for his junior year in 2026 and started 49 games in a row, 35 as DH and 14 in right field, before his season ended prematurely in late May due to a broken hamate bone in his left wrist likely sustained during an early at-bat in a game against the University of Tennessee. All in all, the outfielder hit .293/.352/.486 with 8 doubles, 9 home runs, 5 stolen bases, and 15 walks to 48 strikeouts, resulting in a 98 wRC+.

The 6’1”, 205-pound Kuhio stands square at the plate, holding his hands high with his bat wrapped behind his head angled at 2:00. He swings with a slight leg lift but is otherwise very still at the plate, utilizing virtually no load and weight shift, primarily engaging his upper body and generating power from bat speed and torque. When he makes solid contact and barrels balls, Aloy has the capability of launching balls with 100+ MPH exit velocity readings using composite bats, regularly launching tape measure home runs- the University of Arkansas measured many of his home runs over the course of the 2026 at 450+ feet.

The power comes with some swing-and-miss, with Aloy running a 25.8% strikeout rate with his two seasons with the Hogs and a 26.5% rate factoring in his season with Brigham Young as well. He draws a solid amount of walks- 9.4% walk rate over the course of his college career- but his 3:1 strikeout to walk rate is still a bit high for a player who is not a major slugger. While Aloy has maximized his HR/FB% ratio with a 23.7%, the outfielder still has some work to do elevating the ball in general. His batted ball data is extremely non-optimal for a player of his profile, running a 45.9% groundball rate, 25.6%, line drive rate, and 28.6% flyball rate in 2026, and 42.1%, 24.9%, and 33.0% over the course of his collegiate career. The preponderance of strikeouts and groundouts are a major reason why Aloy is a very streaky hitter.

Defensively, Kuhio does not bring much to the table, which is why the preponderance of his games have come as designated hitter. He does not have much foot speed, with a slow and plodding gait, and as such does not have much range. He does have a strong arm, possibly strong enough to profile well in right field. Because he carries his weight well and is already fairly well filled in, Aloy is unlikely to add enough mass to force him out of the outfield, but because of his limitations out there to begin with, he might simply be better at first base.