The "Baseball Bar-B-Cast” is here to help guide you through this winter of MLB free agency, which began with a minor splash from the Seattle Mariners, who re-signed first baseman Josh Naylor to a five-year, $92.5 million deal.
On top of that, a record four players across the league agreed to qualifying offers of one year, $22.025 million. While the biggest fish in the free agency sea are still there for the taking, only a small number of teams are realistically in play for prized players like Kyle Tucker or Alex Bregman. Simply put, not many teams are willing or able to afford the mega contracts those players will demand.
That’s why, in the latest episode of “Baseball Bar-B-Cast,” Yahoo Sports’ Jordan Shusterman and Jake Mintz divided all 30 teams into nine different tiers based on how they plan to approach free agency, from the biggest spenders (Funny Money) to the most frugal franchises (Broke Boys).
Tier 1: Funny Money
Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets
These two teams are willing and able to spend with essentially no limit, luxury tax be damned. For the Dodgers, the strategy has already paid off massively with back-to-back World Series titles. Their enormous payroll has sparked conversations about the spending gap in baseball and could lead to heated collective bargaining negotiations and a potential lockout in 2027.
"I'm interested in how evil do they get, right?” Mintz said of the Dodgers. “They have now won two in a row. The lockout is approaching. We could be operating under a new financial system in, you know, a year's time. Does that impact the way the Dodgers approach this winter where they're like, 'This is our last chance to really go nut nut, and maybe Kyle Tucker's contract is grandfathered in, let's get him on our roster.'"
The Mets, on the other hand, have spent big without much to show for it so far.
"I'm most interested in which of the two guys do they bring back: [Pete] Alonso and [Edwin] Díaz?” Mintz asked. “And beyond that, how do they seek to supplement the roster? They have some money coming off the books, but if they try and keep Alonso and Díaz, it's less money than you think.”
Tier 2: Rich Men North of Richmond
New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, Toronto Blue Jays
While this group isn’t afraid to open up the checkbook, they’re a tier behind the Dodgers and Mets. For now.
“Let's not pretend like the Yankees are not still capable of spending more than everybody but the Dodgers and Mets, and maybe even outspend the Dodgers and Mets in some circumstances,” Shusterman said.
If the Yankees want to sign a big name in free agency, they might have to compete with a Blue Jays team that came within one win of a World Series title.
“Do they act like a behemoth?” Mintz asked of Toronto.
The Phillies, meanwhile, may have to spend all their money just to keep the band together.
“Because of the state of the roster and kind of the direction of their franchise, [the Phillies] arrive at an interesting point here where [Kyle] Schwarber is, of course, the top priority. [J.T.] Realmuto as well,” Shusterman said. “Is there another move? Is there a move on top of that other than just keeping this group together? Is it a Kyle Tucker?”
Tier 3: Have Employed or Do Employ Rafael Devers
San Francisco Giants, Boston Red Sox
By executing a massive midseason trade in June to acquire Rafael Devers from the Red Sox, the Giants showed they’re willing to make aggressive moves to get better. Yet San Francisco missed the playoffs for the fourth straight season anyway, while Boston surged to the postseason.
“The Red Sox, from a roster standpoint and a free agency standpoint, I think is more compelling because the guys they need to try and keep,” Shusterman said. “And the Giants, it's just like, what are you going to do to move this forward?”
Tier 4: You Have Spent But Where Are You?
San Diego Padres, Texas Rangers, Houston Astros, Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Angels
This collection of clubs have handed out huge commitments to big-time players, with varying results, including San Diego’s Fernando Tatis, Texas’ Corey Seager, several extensions to Braves players or even the Angels’ deal with Anthony Rendon. But for multiple reasons, Shusterman said he’s confused and intrigued about where these teams are at.
The team in this tier that feels like it should be a notch higher? The Cubs.
“This team should be a real behemoth with the amount of money they bring in,” Mintz said. “And until they start acting that way, they will be here grouped together with the Padres, Astros, Braves, Rangers, Angels.”
Tier 5: Why Don’t You Just Meet Me in the Middle
Seattle Mariners, Arizona Diamondbacks, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, Baltimore Orioles, Colorado Rockies
As we mentioned, the Mariners already signed Naylor to a sizable deal. But if they don’t make any other big moves beyond that this offseason, they’re still firmly in baseball’s middle class. Despite these teams slotting into roughly the same spending tier, there’s clearly a wide range of on-field performance here.
“These clubs, five of them actually are in relatively similar points where they're trying to contend and one team is the Rockies,” Mintz said. “But we feel like the Rockies had to be grouped here because if [newly hired president of baseball operations] Paul DePodesta went out and signed Dylan Cease, I would be both surprised and I would be like, ‘that's the Rockies.’”
Tier 6: Too Smart To Spend
Milwaukee Brewers, Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland Guardians
They draft well, develop well and know how to get the most out of inexpensive rosters. But how do they get over the hump to succeed in the playoffs?
“They have earned both the benefit of the doubt and also kind of the collective frustration of, ‘Hey, you're doing a lot of these other things really well, what if you just spent some more money on, like, really good baseball players?’” Shusterman said.
Tier 7: The Reds
Cincinnati Reds
They were good enough to make the playoffs, but it ended quickly with a lopsided series sweep at the hands of the Dodgers.
“They at least have more good things going on that you can be like, ‘Maybe you are just a couple players away.’ I think that's maybe the most complimentary way I can phrase the Reds’ situation,” Shusterman said. “But also, maybe they don't want to spend any money because they're the Reds and that also happens often.”
Tier 8: Wrong Place, Wrong Time
Minnesota Twins, St. Louis Cardinals, Washington Nationals
These are teams that have spent real money at various points in their histories, but that won’t be the case this winter as they all embrace some degree of rebuilding.
“There's not going to be a whole lot of sexy stuff at the big league level this year,” Mintz said of the trio of teams. “There'll probably be some trades of veteran players away for prospects and as for that reason, anything beyond a one-year deal would surprise me.”
Tier 9: Broke Boys
Miami Marlins, Chicago White Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates, Athletics
Could one of these teams break out of the bottom tier? Maybe the A’s signing Luis Severino to a franchise-record deal of $67 million for three years last season is a sign of things to come. Or maybe it’s an anomaly.
“Until they prove us wrong the way that the A's sort of did last year with Severino, to some degree, we have to expect them to not spend money. … history tells us that they are not going to spend real money in free agency. So if they, if they want to change that, we'll talk about it,” Shusterman.
