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What are our expectations for the Seattle Mariners the rest of this year? The club which finally assembled a roster preseason worthy of division title presumption, and pennant dreaming beyond mere wish-casting, has vastly underperformed. They kick off the season’s second half (or 60% mark, more accurately) a game under .500, in second place in the AL West. It is far from the worst state to enter MLB’s Re-Opening Day that Seattle has seen, even measured merely against the recent stretch of contention since 2021.

But this year, we expected better. For the first time since 2004, or perhaps even 2002, the Mariners were coming off a potent season of play and had added significant augmentation to a roster that now looked like a title contender. The fan base once maligned as “spoiled and greedy” has in fact only had perhaps three or four seasons of reasonable expectation for greatness this millennium, and this indeed was one of them.

I used to relish low expectations. I’d love to say it’s a shortcoming I’ve shaken off, but the temptation can creep in at times. After all, it’s difficult to disappoint when the bar is at your feet, and I hate to disappoint. But insulation from expectations often is a short term salve for a long-term corrosion. The accusation of being a “try-hard” rarely sat well or came from my lips. But there was a certain satisfaction in succeeding without effort, as though it were more valiant than doing so laboriously.

It’s ridiculous, self-defeating nonsense. Trying is hard, failing is too. With apologies to Yoda, there is no do without try, and do not is very different if the not is earned through effort or apathy. I wish I’d confronted those tendencies in myself sooner. Here, however, I’ve been railing against them in the Mariners for years. Trying and failing stings, but it does not inherently corrode. It’s helped me hold myself closer to the standard I want from my favorite ballclub. It’s also helped me weather failure and shortcomings.

The 2026 Mariners have been a failure to this point. They were rightfully expected, thanks to aggressive moves by the front office amplified in contrast to several tepid winters prior, to be one of the best teams in the American League. The American League has spent the better part of the year previewing this summer’s cyclospora outbreak, keeping Seattle in the mix for not only an AL West title but a first round bye. Even today, were the season to end, Seattle would be in the playoffs again, their first consecutive trips to the postseason since 2000-2001.

But I expect more. We, rightfully, expect more this season. It’s something familiar in other Seattle sports, where at least one of the Storm, Seahawks, and Sounders have been championship contenders in any given year of the last few decades. Having high expectations isn’t natural to me for the Mariners, however, and I’ve struggled with it undermining my enjoyment of moments that might have otherwise been a highlight in a lesser campaign. But I am trying, because I believe this team is capable of far more than it has shown, and I don’t wish to lower my own bar unduly.

The photo I chose for this article is a moment I’ll never forget. This season has featured many players trying, arguably to their detriment, including Cal Raleigh and Josh Naylor playing through apparent injury and struggling to generate any consistent production. It rankles me, even as moments of… cautious play from Randy Arozarena can also be irksome. Trying is opaque, it’s what you make of it, but to me, on this roster, it is always one player, best symbolized in one play. Victor Robles, out of nowhere, to save a game that wrested for good the AL West from the Houston Astros. Robles has been mercurial his whole career, but never once could his effort be questioned. 2025 began on the heels of his breakout down the 2024 stretch. Within a week and a half, he’d been sidelined with a massive injury, hurling himself into the netting at Oracle Park to attempt to keep a grasp on a game the Mariners were letting slip away to the San Francisco Giants.

Trying is hard, embarrassing, messy, painful. But the lesson thousands of motivational messages and inspirational speeches failed to register in my brain is infuriatingly, eventually, undeniably true: trying is worth it. That means having expectations for yourself, and for others. We should still expect good things from this ballclub, just as they should expect them of themselves. 65 games remain for these Mariners to right the ship and show us they are built for bigger things.

Let’s try to enjoy them together.

Welcome back to the second half of the race to October. Hope you all enjoyed the break, where the National League got blanked out by the American League, but, hey, it’s all in good fun, right?

Now we return to Truist Park, where the Atlanta Braves (55-40) will take on the Texas Rangers (49-47). Chris Sale (2.20 ERA) will be kicking things off for the Braves. As of right now, Sale has been the team’s ace and most consistent starter. Across his 17 games this season, he’s held nine wins and six losses, a 1.11 WHIP and 117 strikeouts.

The problem when Sale is on the mound isn’t his execution. In fact, he’s one of the most anticipated pitchers in the rotation to get the job done on the defensive side. It’s the inconsistencies on offense that shake his win record. Add that to the fact that the Rangers’ offense has been hitting better against left-handed pitchers as of late, and we have a toss-up of a performance.

The plan is simple but true. Sale will need the offensive production to step up big time in this second half to set the tone early and break old habits.

Facing the Braves will be Rangers’ Cal Quantrill (3.11 ERA). Quantrill has mainly been used as a reliever this season, starting in two games with a 14% strikeout rate. He’s a solid arm, but not as consistent, and sometimes limited in his pitch count when things start going awry.

On paper, the Braves’ offense has what it takes to leave with a win tonight. But it’s just a matter of what version of themselves they decide to show up with coming out of the All-Star break.

Game Info

Game Date/Time: Friday, July 17, 7:15 p.m. ET

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

TV: BravesVision

Streaming: MLB.tv

Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos

The Guardians made it past the All-Star break; how should we view what happened so far?

Despite being without our future Hall of Fame third baseman, José Ramírez, and the player who was leading the team in slugging percentage and home runs prior to injury, Angel Martínez, for over a month now, the Guardians have weathered the most difficult parts of their schedule and still rest atop the AL Central division tied with the White Sox. Coming into the season, expectations were once again that this would be a team that is carried by their pitching and defense, and would have to find enough offense to chalk up wins. Today, we’re going to take a look at how this Guardians team has managed those expectations thus far in 2026.

We’re going to look at the 5 major categories of team performance – starting pitching, relief pitching, hitting, base running, and defense – and briefly discuss whether the 2026 team has met general preseason expectations for each category, or fallen below/exceeded them. First, let’s look at the starting rotation.

Starting Rotation: Exceeded Expectations

There were some inconsistencies in the rotation. Slade Cecconi got off to a bad start, and Tanner Bibee has thrown a couple clunkers here and there. But Parker Messick is a legitimate Rookie of the Year contender, and both he and Gavin Williams are both in the Cy Young conversation. Joey Cantillo has quietly been incredibly solid as well. All in all, the rotation has the 7th best ERA in MLB and has thrown the 3rd most innings in MLB (just 0.1 IP behind the Dodgers in 2nd place). I think we expected them to be fairly good given the finish they had to the 2025 season, but where I believe they have exceeded expectations is specifically in the ability to get deeper into games while also maintaining a top 10 ERA in the sport.

Bullpen: Below Expectations

In 2024, the Guardians’ bullpen was so good, it almost can’t be described. They were 1st in fWAR and ERA by a large margin. In 2025, they were 3rd in MLB in both of those categories. So far in 2026, their ERA is 8th in MLB and their fWAR is 12th. This season has had a couple of uncharacteristic bullpen collapses (such as late innings with 4+ BBs leading to blown leads), and a couple of injuries haven’t helped. Hunter Gaddis missed basically all of spring training and the beginning of the regular season, and Erik Sabrowski missed the end of May and most of June as well. This season hasn’t been without its positives though. Both Daniel Espino and Franco Aleman have had promising starts to their MLB careers in 2026, and of course 2026 AL All-Star Cade Smith has been as dominant of a closer as you can ask for. While a bullpen ERA of 3.74 that’s 8th in all of MLB is definitely a good bullpen, I do believe this aspect of team performance has fallen below expectations purely because the previous 2 seasons set the expectations so high.

Hitting: Exceeded Expectations*

This section is a bit complicated because there’s a lot of nuance here, but I’ll try to go through it quickly. The 2025 Guardians offense was bottom 3 in almost every single meaningful offensive category – the wRC+ was 87 and the OPS was .670; they ranked 28th and 29th respectively. We knew in the offseason there was going to be a lot of promising youngsters filling in some holes in the offense coming into 2026, but young hitters can be incredibly volatile. For those reasons, I think the expectations were low coming into 2026. On June 13th, three of the Guardians’ five most productive hitters (at that time) all left the game with injuries. José Ramírez – the superstar, Angel Martínez – the team’s leader in home runs and slugging percentage, and Chase DeLauter – arguably the team’s best pure hitter, all were going to be out for multiple weeks. Going into that game, the team’s wRC+ was at 95, and the team OPS was 0.688, which ranked 22nd and 27th respectively in MLB. The bottom line is that still isn’t very good, but it was a meaningful improvement over 2025. Losing those players has driven the same offensive totals down over the last 4 weeks leading up to the break (wRC+ of 92 is 25th and an OPS of 0.679 is 29th). But considering they’ve been missing multiple weeks of key offensive players, I do think overall that the offense has looked better than I expected, even though the current numbers don’t really show it.

Baserunning: Met Expectations

The 2026 Guardians team is 5th in MLB in SBs at 93 and 7th in the MLB in BsR* on FanGraphs at 5.2. There really aren’t any surprises here. The team looked as aggressive on the basepaths as I would have expected. José was stealing bases left and right. And a number of other players like Travis Bazzana, Chase Delauter, and Angel Martínez also have looked great on the bases this season.

Defense: Met Expectations

This is very similar to the previous section. In 2026, the Guardians rank 8th in MLB by FRV (9) and 9th in MLB by FanGraphs Def rating (8.6). Steven Kwan is still playing elite defense in multiple OF positions. Daniel Schneemann has put himself into the conversation for the Utility Gold Glove award in the AL. And how can we not mention the catching tandem (Austin Hedges and Patrick Bailey) for not only being good defensive catchers, but also for their pitch calling and game management, which have helped the pitching staff succeed.

Our Best Kept Secret

If you’ve gotten this far, you’ve probably noticed one name that hasn’t been mentioned yet. You could even argue it’s the name that probably should be brought up more than all the others, and you aren’t wrong. I’ve been thinking about this section the entire time I’ve been putting this piece together, because if you want to talk about exceeding expectations, I don’t know if one single member of this roster personifies that more than Brayan Rocchio – a player who struggled badly in 2024 and was sent back to AAA after a difficult start to 2025, with almost every single fan begging to get him off the roster. He turned himself into a player who went into the All-Star Break ranked as the 9th best position player in the American League by fWAR (2.9). 

He could’ve been mentioned as a key player in every single one of these position player sections. A 113 wRC+. A 9.9 Def rating on FanGraphs. Stealing 15 out of 20 bases to start the season. It’s really felt like every single time our backs have been against the wall, Brayan Rocchio has been there to save the day. Clutch hitting, walkoffs, game saving defensive plays – he has done it all. I don’t think I can say enough, but if there’s one more thing I think should be said it’s this: Brayan Rocchio, I have no earthly idea how you were not invited to the All-Star Game.

Conclusion

Most preseason projections had the Guardians in the mid-upper 70s in wins. I think a lot of fans felt that those predictions underestimated this team, and so far the Guardians have proven that belief correct. Despite injuries to some of the most important players, we’re tied for 1st place in the division because of strong pitching, defense, baserunning, and some unexpected contributions from young players. 

The Guardians have the easiest strength of schedule in MLB for the second half of the season. Chase DeLauter has been on a hitting tear since returning from his injury, and José Ramírez and Angel Martínez are both expected back in a few short weeks. We aren’t all the way through these setbacks yet, but we’ve put ourselves in an excellent position heading into the second half.

Glossary:

*Base Running (BsR) is FanGraphs’ all encompassing base running statistic that turns stolen bases, caught stealings, and other base running plays (taking extra bases, being thrown out on the bases, etc) into runs above and below average. It is the combination of Weighted Stolen Base Runs (wSB), Weighted Grounded Into Double Play Runs (wGDP), and Ultimate Base Running (UBR), which are all available on the leaderboards and player pages on FanGraphs.

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Let's kick off the second half of the MLB season on a high note!

These are my top looks to leave the yard this Friday evening, featuring Alec Burleson showing value in the MLB player props. 

Here are my favorite home run props for July 17.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Alec Burleson	+390
Pete Crow-Armstrong	+232
Matt Olson	+295
💲Today's HR parlay	+6325

Home run pick: Alec Burleson (+390)

The worst-rated pitcher on the board is Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Merrill Kelly, who has been atrocious this season, especially against left-handed hitters. Lefties are generating a 43.5% hard-hit rate and 14.3% barrel rate against him, while posting a .586 xSLG and .415 xwOBA.

St. Louis Cardinals slugger Alec Burleson enters Friday with an elite rating on Batters-Box's current season dataset, along with 100% arsenal coverage against Kelly's pitch mix. In 15 elite-rated matchups this season, Burleson has homered 20% of the time. It's a small sample, but an impressive hit rate.

Despite a slight cold streak, Burleson has still been generating a 54.4% hard-hit rate and 10.9% barrel rate over his last 60 at-bats against right-handed pitching.

I have no respect for Kelly, and I think he gets trounced in this one, starting with a Burleson nuke.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ARID, CARD

Home run pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (+232)

Chicago Cubs star Pete Crow-Armstrong finds himself in a mouthwatering spot in his first game back from the All-Star break, as he draws Minnesota Twins right-hander Bailey Ober. PCA owns an elite rating on Batters-Box's current season dataset, where he also covers 100% of Ober's pitch mix.

Over his last 60 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Crow-Armstrong posted a .366 BA, .714 SLG, 1.197 OPS, .347 ISO, and a 13.3% barrel rate.

Ober has struggled mightily against left-handed hitters this season, allowing them to elevate the hell out of the baseball while generating plenty of hard contact. Over the last 60 left-handed hitters he's faced, they've produced a 44% hard-hit rate, 16.7% barrel rate, and an 81.3% elevation rate.

On top of that, they've posted a .336 xBA, .826 xSLG, and .346 xwOBA.

With that much elevation against Ober, Crow-Armstrong should be in line for extra bases, if not a nuke missile.

• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MNNT, MARQ

Home run pick: Matt Olson (+295)

I am currently foaming at the mouth over another pitcher who has been giving up a ton of elevation to left handed hitters, and Atlanta Braves slugger Matt Olson stands out in this matchup.

Cal Quantrill takes the mound for the Texas Rangers tonight, and he has struggled mightily against left-handed bats this season. He's allowed them to produce a 42% hard-hit rate, 16% barrel rate, and a 75.4% elevation rate. They also own a .504 xSLG and .390 xwOBA against him.

In a small sample of 42 left-handed hitters faced on the road, Quantrill has allowed a 69.2% fly-ball rate, 11.5% line-drive rate, and 30% hard-hit rate.

Prior to the break, Olson was swinging one of the hottest bats in baseball against right-handed pitching. Over his last 30 at-bats, he owns a .593 SLG, .860 OPS, .408 ISO, while producing a 55.6% hard-hit rate and a 16.7% barrel rate.

We all know what Olson is capable of, and with Quantrill getting destroyed by left-handed hitters, I have to back the Braves star.

• Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: BravesVsn, CW33

Today’s HR parlay

Alec Burleson	Bet Now +6325
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Matt Olson

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The Colorado Rockies are a team in the midst of a rebuild. With this in mind, the staff at Purple Row thought it would be useful to revisit the “State of the Position” series that we ran in March to see where things stand. We’ve asked authors of the spring articles to re-evaluate their earlier remarks with an eye toward the August 3 trade deadline.

Entering the season, it seemed like Willi Castro would be the latest veteran to try to be the Rockies second baseman. Hoping for a resurgence, Castro, a former All-Star with good baserunning and utility skills, signed a two-year, $12.8 million deal with the Rockies in January.

I had Castro pegged as the starter with Edouard Julien, Ryan Ritter and Adael Amador rotating as the backups. Instead, Castro has turned out to be the true utility player the Rockies love, especially under the new front office. He’s made 38 starts at second base, but that comes in second to Julien’s 48. Together, they have started 87.8% of Colorado’s games at second base.

They have added speed and production with mixed results defensively. But so far, the additions have translated to an upgrade at the position. In 2025, Colorado’s second basemen combined to rank No. 29 in on-base percentage (.267) and OPS (.550), No. 28 in batting average (.213) and slugging percentage (.283) and tied for No. 26 in homers (eight) and RBI (53).

This year, at the All-Star break, the Rockies second basemen have combined to climb up 20 spots to No. 9 in on-base percentage (.332), and improved to No. 14 in RBI (38), No. 16 in batting average (. 246) and homers (16), No. 17 in OPS (.690) and No. 22 in slugging percentage (.358).

While a true comparison will have to wait until the end of the season, the improvement in the power and ability to get on base is remarkable. 

The 2B duo

Castro has out-performed Julien at the plate this season, while also making 35 starts at four other positions (shortstop, third base, first base and left field), in addition to spending a little time in center field. On any given day, he’s got around 10 gloves with him and prides himself on being “prepared for anything.” 

Castro is hitting .260/.251/.378 with a .709 OPS, seven homers, 13 doubles, 37 RBI and 40 runs scored. He is just one homer away from tying the total of all eight players who played second base for the Rockies last season. His most recent homer came in the form of a two-run shot vs. the Giants on July 9

His sprint speed is in the 77th percentile at 28.3, even if it doesn’t show up tremendously in his stolen base total of six. While his arm strength also ranks in the 77th percentile at 88.5, his range (OAA) is -3 (20th percentile). 

Julien doesn’t have the power, the versatility, the speed, or the defense that Castro does, but he does own an effective plate approach with an 18.9% chase rate, which is one of the best in MLB. Whereas Castro has a 27.8% strikeout rate and an 8.8% walk rate, Julien walks at a 13.8% rate and strikes out 25.9% of the time. 

Unfortunately for Julien, whom the Rockies acquired in a trade with the Twins in January, it doesn’t always translate to production. He is hitting .222/.335/.366 with three homers, seven doubles, one triple, 33 runs scored and 20 RBI. He lacks the sprint speed at 26.7 (32nd percentile) and his defense leaves much to be desired with a -4 OAA (11th percentile) and 77.3 arm strength. 

That being said, he’s still capable of some highlight-reel plays.

Julien had a short stretch where he was hot in the leadoff spot, but has dropped down in the lineup. Meanwhile, Castro has worked out nicely as the leadoff bat when the Rockies face lefties.

The backups and future

Three other Rockies have slotted in at second base so far this season. Chad Stevens was called up for a few weeks in May and June, making seven starts. Utilityman Tyler Freeman has made four starts, and Ritter made one start in March. None have done enough, or had sufficient opportunities, to make a mark.

Ritter and Amador have both struggled with injuries and bounced around the farm system in their rehab assignments. Amador, who missed some time with a leg injury, has put up good stats in Triple-A (.257/.363/.393), but he has yet to prove they can hold up at the MLB level. Ritter has only played 27 games with the Isotopes, joining them after recovering from an ankle injury on June 16. He has also played a bit of left field in an effort to diversify his fielding profile.

Barring trades, the Rockies second base crew is set. Castro, 29, has one more year on his contract. Still pre-arbitration eligible, Julien, who is 27 and making $792,750 this season, will remain under team control until at least 2029.

Depending on how the season plays out, and if the Rockies mantra of versatility sticks around, the Rockies could have the kinds of players they want in Castro and Julien. Of course, the second base bar is low considering the struggles of the past few seasons. Julien and Castro, or a player yet to be determined, could continue to raise that bar even higher as the team fights to become a contender. For now, the Julien-Castro duo is part of the reason why the Rockies are playing better baseball in 2026 than they did in 2025.

Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!

The Royals put a frustrating first half behind them and open the second half by hosting the Padres. This is just the fourth time ever the Padres have come to town, with the Royals dropping the series the last time they played at the K in 2024.

The Padres have a $200+ million payroll, but after a hot 19-9 start, they have struggled. They had an eight-game losing streak in late June/early July, but won five of eight heading into the break.

San Diego Padres (48-48) vs. Kansas City Royals (38-59) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Padres: 3.95 runs scored/game (30th in MLB), 4.40 runs allowed/game (12th)

Royals: 4.24 runs scored/game (21st), 5.14 runs allowed/game (27th)

The Padres’ lineup has been mysteriously bad this year. Fernando Tatis Jr. went 55 games to begin the year without a home run. Manny Machado got off to a dreadful start, but is hitting .279/.372/.586 with eight home runs in his last 30 games to get his batting average over the Mendoza Line. Gavin Sheets is hitting just .176/.263/.235 against lefties, but is hitting .279/.377/.543on the road. Xander Bogaerts has a 58.5 percent groundball rate, second-highest among qualified hitters.

Ty France is a Royals-killer, hitting .368/.445/.604 with eight home runs in 39 games in his career against them. Former Royals catcher Freddy Fermin is hitting just .152/.252/.268 in 58 games and has been out with a concussion.

Only the Nationals have stolen more bases than the Padres. The Padres generally rate well defensively, particularly Bogaerts at shortstop.

Michael King is 12th in the National League in ERA, but he has the ninth-highest walk rate among qualified starters. King has a reverse split this year, with lefties hitting just .201/.288/.299 against him. He throws a sinker, change up, sweeper, and a 94 mph four-seamer.

Griffin Canning had a nice season with the Mets last year, but he has been a mess with the Padres this year. He has the third-worst ERA (6.47) of any pitcher with at least ten starts. He has pitched more than five innings just once this year, and has been used as a “bulk reliever” in some recent appearances. Opponents are hitting .333 against his change up this year. The Royals have not yet announced a starter for Saturday, although Stephen Kolek could be activated off the family emergency list.

Germán Márquez had a 6.70 ERA last year with the Rockies, the second-worst of any pitcher with at least 100 innings. He moved on to the Padres and got off to a decent start before missing two months with a forearm injury. He has pitched just 12 innings in his three starts since returning. Lefties are hitting .273/.377/.557 against the right-hander this year.

The Padres’ bullpen has a 3.68 ERA, sixth-lowest in baseball after leading all of baseball last year. Mason Miller has been the best reliever in baseball, according to fWAR, striking out a ridiculous 48.5 percent of all batters he has faced. Yuki Matsui has a 14.9 percent walk rate, ninth-highest among relievers, and a 58.8 percent flyball rate that is third-highest. Adrian Morejon has a 64.4 percent groundball rate, third-highest in baseball. Kyle Hart has given up ten runs in his last 11.2 innings.

The Padres have the kind of roster that should be competing, but they have failed to turn that talent into results. Their negative run differential and 43-53 Pythagorean record suggest this team has been fortunate to remain in the mix. Their offensive struggles may be just what the Royals’ pitching staff needs to face, but if the Royals find themselves down late, they’ll have to face a shutdown bullpen.

The second part of this terrible season kicks off against a Mariners team that’s straining to match their success from a year ago. Those 2025 Mariners? AL West champs. Cal Raleigh hit 60 dingers and they were 4th in the AL in runs scored to boost a decent pitching staff. These 2026 Mariners? 1.5 games back of the division and never more than 4 games over .500. Cal Raleigh? Just 9 homers and one of the worst regulars in the entire sport. They’re 12th in the AL in runs scored, 26th in MLB. Meanwhile, the Giants are playing for 2028 and beyond, when their highly regarded farm system should start producing results.

(Seriously, go listen to Roger’s There R Giants podcast with MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis.)

So, rather than delve into the hows and whys of these two disappointing teams, let’s do some trade talk about a trade that will almost definitely not happen. In looking at potential trade partners who could take on some of the Giants’ bigger contracts, I’ve conceded that at the end of the day the Giants would have to do contract swaps; and, given that Zack & Buster will need to once again rebuild the rotation for next season (or post-lockout) following Robbie Ray’s departure, a contract they should probably take on is one of a veteran pitcher just to guarantee themselves some innings. And that led me to two names: Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola and Seattle’s Luis Castillo.

But the thing is, Aaron Nola’s contract runs through 2030 and his age-37 season while Castillo’s runs through 2027 unless he pitches 180 innings in which case it vests for 2028. Now, there’s a decent chance of a lockout so that vesting option would seem to be unimportant, but the Mariners seem like they’re doing an annual dance with their payroll and probably want to ditch a pitcher they have already shuffled away from the rotation.

Could the Giants use their former prospect to stanch the bleeding they’re likely to face here over these final 66 games and however many games are played in 2027? I don’t see why not. Although Castillo has been on a steady decline since his age-28 season of 2021 with the Reds — 3.9 fWAR then followed by 3.7, 3.3, 2.3, 2.6, and a projected 1.5 this season — he still has a lot of qualities that could help the Giants’ rotation. They are:

• Two fastballs — a four-seamer and a sinker — which both average 95 mph (65th percentile)
• A 7.2 BB% (70th percentile)
• A 20.8 K% (37th percentile)** — hold on, this low value is still a positive and I’ll explain in a moment.
• Innings eater (2023-2025: 197, 175.1, 180.2)

Yes, he’s in clear decline. He averaged 97 mph with his fastball from 2020-2022, then 96 2023-2024, and he’s down to 95 the past two seasons, his strike rate through age 30: 9.86. Ages 31-33: 8.48.

He’s not the pitcher he once was and he’s due to make $24.15 million next season (and 2028, if the option vests). That’s less than what Robbie Ray is scheduled to make here in his final season with the Giants (his age-34 season, which is what Castillo’s age would be in 2027) and it carries a lower Competitive Balance Tax number because of the annual average of his 5-year, $108 million deal he signed after the Mariners traded for him: $21.6 million.

We don’t know what the CBT will look like in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, of course, but if the Giants aren’t going to move Logan Webb (which they should) then they’ll need to add to the rotation until the next competitive window opens. But rather than pay today’s free agent market prices for pitching, taking on contracts valued from a previous generation makes a lot more sense.

Plus, the Giants can begin to make amends for the Casey McGehee trade.

Now, a trade like this would probably require a third team, because it’s hard to imagine the Mariners trading for Robbie Ray after trading him away, but being a pass-through for another team who needs a pitcher like Ray?

According to this MLB.com article, the Mariners need a right-handed bat and a proven reliever. The Giants, of course, don’t have a proven reliever, except for maybe Caleb Kilian, who has been great in any inning that’s not the 9th inning (seriously, look at these splits); but, better yet, they have a really solid right-handed bat option in Heliot Ramos.

So, on the one hand, you could see the Giants being willing to send Robbie Ray to the Mariners for Luis Castillo and a prospect or two (16 of Seattle’s top 30 are pitchers, btw) and you could see the financialization model Jerry Dipoto seems to swear by motivating the Mariners’ side (they get out from the 2027 commitment to Castillo), but in order for it to really give Seattle what they need (financial flexibility), you could see them needing a bit more.

Would Matt Chapman want to live in Seattle for half the season? That could be another possibility if the Mariners want to actually use their financial flexibility to make a bigger splash. I don’t think T-Mobile Park is a good fit for Chapman, of course, but Seattle’s contributions from third base this season have been dire: a 75 wRC+ and -5.4 Defensive Runs Above Average. Hard to see Seattle trading into a long-term deal for a player in his (at least, when tracking age to history) decline phase, but I admit I’m having a hard time figuring out who that third team would be in this trade pitch of:

Giants receive

SP Luis Castillo
2 Mariners prospect (Teddy McGraw & Jared Sundstrom?)
1 Team #3 prospect

Mariners receive

OF Heliot Ramos
RP Caleb Kilian
1 Team #3 prospect (which goes to the Giants)

Team #3 receives

SP Robbie Ray

Anyway, that was a lot more fun than going through the actual series. With maybe 30 more wins left in their schedule, let’s maximize the entertainment value in the time we have left.

Series Overview

Who: San Francisco Giants (41-55) at Seattle Mariners (48-49)
Where: T-Mobile Park | Seattle, Washington
When: Friday at 7:10pm PT, Saturday at 5:08pm PT, Sunday at 1:10pm PT
National broadcasts: Fox TV (Saturday)

Projected starters
Friday: Landen Roupp (RHP 6-8, 4.27 ERA) vs. Bryce Miller (RHP 4-3, 2.18 ERA)
Saturday: Logan Webb (RHP 5-7, 3.86 ERA) vs. Bryan Woo (RHP 7-6, 4.23 ERA)
Sunday: Robbie Ray (LHP 8-6, 3.38 ERA) vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP 7-6, 3.32 ERA)

Players to watch

Mariners

Julio Rodriguez: He’s expected to come off the concussion IL during this series after missing basically all of July. He wound up there after taking a throw off the back of his helmet during a double play. Ouch. The 25-year old hit .267/.324/.474 with 32 homers and 30 steals last year, but this year, he’s down a bit to .259/.323/.427 and just 14 homers and 12 steals. Now, it’s entirely possible that he kicks off the second part of the season with a bang and goes on a tear that brings his 2026 season line closer to his final results in 2025. The Giants seem like the perfect team to get him going.

Logan Gilbert: Since giving up 7 runs to the Padres back on May 16th, he’s got a 2.20 ERA (2.35 FIP) over his last 9 starts with a 5:1 strikeouts to walks ratio in 57.1 IP. The Mariners are 7-2 over this stretch, the only two losses coming on the road, when the Guardians & Rays both scored 4 off of him.

Randy Arozarena: Since June 1st, he’s hitting .279/.395/.471 with 5 homers, 5 doubles, and 19 RBI. His season line of .286/.380/.458 has him on pace for the best season of his career. Remarkably, he’s just 9-for-51 (.176) in his career against the Giants.

Giants

Rafael Devers: I can’t remember where I saw it so plainly stated, but it was, essentially, that despite the Giants and Mariners being very similar organizations, right down to the pitcher’s park quality of their home stadiums, there was one key difference in that regard: righties hit better in Oracle Park and lefties hit better in T-Mobile Park. So, it was with that in mind that I went straight to Devers’ split and lo! In 21 career games (95 PA), he’s slashing .298/.379/.560 with 6 homers and 4 doubles. He also has 3 stolen bases. You know, since the 1-year anniversary of the blockbuster trade, after every pundit put on his critical hat to say how much of a flop it had been, he’s hitting .298/.400/.702 with 10 homers and 15 walks against just 18 strikeouts in his last 100 plate appearances. L. O. L.

Bryce Eldridge: He was 6-for-24 on the homestand, but it felt a little quiet. He was 6-for-24 on the last road trip, too, and that felt a little quiet. 12-for-48 with a pair of homers, a pair of homers, and just 6 walks isn’t what we had in mind, I’m sure, so let’s see what he does against the three best starters in Seattle’s rotation.

Logan Webb: His July is canceling out his stellar June and rekindling the thought that his best days are behind him. He’s 0-1 with a 5.29 career ERA in 3 starts against the Mariners, but the only time he’s started a game in T-Mobile Park was 2021. Personally, I’m sticking to GPT’s simple assessment:

The Giants’ pitching system has created a series of Logan Webbs. Can the real Logan Webb distinguish himself again?

Prediction time

The Giants will not trade for Luis Castillo.

Clay Holmes will take a big step towards his return this weekend.

Holmes is set to make his first rehab start Saturday night with High-A Brooklyn.

The right-hander has been sidelined since mid-May with a fractured fibula. 

Holmes has been progressing well in his recovery over the past few weeks, and Andy Green said pregame Thursday that he looked like himself as he completed another bullpen session on Tuesday.  

Green indicated Holmes was inching closer to a rehab assignment, and now he's been deemed ready. 

According to Will Sammon of the Athletic, multiple teams are expected to be scouting that first minor league outing with Holmes being a potential trade candidate ahead of the Aug. 3 deadline.  

The Mets, of course, could elect hold onto him as well as they look to draw up a potential extension. 

Holmes was one of New York's most consistent arms before being injured on a comebacker, pitching to a stellar 2.39 ERA and 1.10 WHIP across his first nine outings of the season. 

There is mutual interest between the two sides to keep him in Queens beyond this season. 

The All-Star break has come to a close, and that means it’s time for real baseball to once again commence. A 3-game sweep courtesy of the New York Yankees left a sour taste in the mouths of Nats’ fans going into the break, despite an otherwise productive month of July to date, and now it’s time for the club to kick it into second gear and push for a playoff berth. They start their second-half journey to October on the West Coast, with 3 games against the Athletics on tap for this weekend.

While Washington is looking to bounce back from their series against New York, the A’s are attempting to fully turn the page and leave their prior July performance behind them. They took down the Los Angeles Dodgers 7-1 to begin the month, but have since lost 9 consecutive games dating back to July 3rd. Coming off 3 straight sweeps is never an ideal spot, and the Nats will be tasked with continuing to bury them in the standings.

Game One – Friday 9:40 PM EST

ATH: LHP Gage Jump (3-4, 3.51 ERA)

WSH: RHP Cade Cavalli (5-4, 3.83 ERA)

It’s been a splendid rookie campaign thus far for Jump, elevating him quickly to the status of one of their rotation’s most reliable arms. His egregious 2-game skid to end June and kick off July raised his ERA by over 1.5 points, but he settled down and held the White Sox to just 1 run across 5.2 innings his last time through the rotation.

Questions about Cavalli’s workload may arise in the near future, but for now, it’s full steam ahead for the 27-year-old. He will be leaned on heavily to stabilize the rotation, and the Nats’ coaching staff likely pushes him to take another step forward in his development. The righty has yet to toss a scoreless outing this year, albeit being an objectively solid starter, and it would be a great sign for him to go out there and set the tone for the second half.

Game Two – Saturday 10:05 PM EST

ATH: RHP JT Ginn (7-6, 3.67 ERA)

WSH: RHP Zack Littell (7-6, 4.90 ERA)

Speaking of taking a step forward, that’s exactly what Ginn has managed to do through 21 appearances in 2026. His season numbers are heavily swayed by the 8 runs he surrendered to Chicago in his last start, and the Nats’ lineup will look to force a repeat of that blowup outing.

Littell’s ERA has been lowered in each of his last 4 starts, a trend that will need to continue if Washington is to make a legitimate run at the postseason. He’s missed more bats as of late, and his ability to limit walks has also been a noticeable improvement from his early-season struggles.

Game Three – Sunday 4:05 PM EST

ATH: LHP Jacob Lopez (4-3, 6.83 ERA)

WSH: LHP Foster Griffin (10-2, 2.77 ERA)

Lopez’s numbers are certainly indicative of the pitcher he’s been (or hasn’t been able to be), with neither his stamina nor his effectiveness emerging as particularly impressive traits. He tossed 1.2 scoreless innings as an opener in Chicago, and that role may be more fitting for the southpaw who has yet to throw 6.0 innings in a start.

The Nationals’ “alpha dog” of their pitching staff takes the hill in the series finale, fresh off his first career All-Star Game selection. He put up an undeniably All-Star-level first half, and he’s the best bet to lead the Washington rotation down the stretch, assuming he isn’t moved before the August 3rd trade deadline.

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Cubs fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

The Cubs begin the “second half” (actually, the second “a bit more than 40 percent”) of the 2026 season tonight against the Minnesota Twins at Wrigley Field.

They stand five games behind the Brewers for first place in the NL Central, and one game ahead of the Phillies for the top wild card spot (incidentally, thanks Mets for defeating the Phillies Thursday!).

That’s a good position for a postseason spot. Obviously a division title and possible first-round bye would be better, but the Cubs hosted a Wild Card series against the Padres last year and won it before being eliminated in the division series round by the Brewers.

So earlier this week in the SB Nation Reacts survey I asked you where you thought the Cubs would finish. Here are the results:

Here’s where I’m going to disagree with the majority. I think the Cubs are going to continue the run they’re on (20-8 over the last four and a half weeks before the All-Star break) and beat out the Brewers and be NL Central champions. And if they are, I also think they’ll have a better record than the Braves, and so will join the Dodgers as the division champions with first-round byes.

The Cubs seem well positioned to make the postseason regardless, as the majority of voters in the survey said. Six percent disagree with that and said the Cubs won’t make it.

As always, we await developments.

Here are the results for the two national questions asked in this week’s survey.

I’m surprised that this number is only 59 percent. It seems clear that MLB made a mistake moving the Draft from June to the All-Star break. The purported reason for that was to get the Draft more attention, and instead it’s getting less, buried among several other All-Star week events. This is how bad it got:

The last item would be funny if it weren’t so sad. Beyond all this, putting the Draft in July means front offices have to pay attention to that rather than the Trade Deadline, which is now just 17 days away. It would be a good idea to separate those, in my view.

That’s a huge majority, and you already know how I feel about this, as I wrote an entire article on this topic earlier in the week.

Move the Futures Game to Sunday and make it the featured Sunday Night Baseball game. And make it a nine-inning affair again. That’s a simple and elegant solution.

Enjoy the rest of the MLB season. It begins again in just a few hours!

This edition of SB Nation Reacts is sponsored by FanDuel.

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The St. Louis Cardinals head into the desert to visit the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight at Chase Field.

The game projects to be close to a pick'em, with the Cardinals at -106 on the moneyline. Below, I explain why I like the visitors on the moneyline in my Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks predictions.

We've got a high-scoring game in tap in our MLB picks for Friday, July 17.

Who will win Cardinals vs Diamondbacks today: Cardinals (-106)

Fade Merrill Kelly.

The veteran Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander can still generate some chase, but that's about the only nice thing you can say about his 2026 season. His ERA is an ugly 5.38, and his expected ERA is even worse at 7.44. 

Lest this turn into a rundown of every statistical deficiency as seen on his Baseball Savant page, the crux of the matter is he doesn't miss bats, and he's getting barreled when opponents make contact. Which they do. All of the time. 

The St. Louis Cardinals offense has been up and down, but I like this matchup. Jordan Walker, fresh off his exhilarating Home Run Derby win, is a nightmare matchup for Kelly. He has 100th-percentile bat speed and ranks among baseball's elite in hard contact, barrel rate, and average exit velocity.

Kelly's inability to generate whiffs will help neutralize Walker's propensity to strike out, though he's made strides in that department as well, going from 31.8% in 2025 to 24.8% this year. He's getting to the ball and doing damage when he does.

The Cardinals will stack the lineup with lefty hitters, too, with Alec Burleson, Lars Nootbaar, and JJ Wetherholt, all of whom boast a wRC+ north of 115 vs. right-handers on the season.

COVERS INTEL: Walker's blast contact rate of 23.2% ranks fifth in MLB. The explosiveness of his bat will not be held in check, as Kelly has the worst BlastCon% among D-Backs hurlers at 18.9%.

Cardinals vs Diamondbacks Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 (+105)

Having outlined why the Cardinals will run up the score against Kelly, we're well on our way toward the game total Over. And while I prefer St. Louis starter Michael McGreevy, he's not without his own issues.

Like Kelly, McGreevy is not a power pitcher. Where they differ, however, is that McGreevy does an elite job of limiting free passes (5.7% walk rate). He lives in the zone, forcing opponents to swing.

And while the results have been good (a 3.01 ERA!), a lot of that has been lucky. His 5.34 expected ERA is more than two full runs higher, and all of his contact metrics are alarming.

He keeps the ball on the ground, which is helpful when you have Wetherholt and Masyn Winn up the middle, but he's playing with fire.

Still, as we're expecting a bad night from Kelly, McGreevy surrendering two or three runs before handing things off to a middling Cardinals bullpen (4.22 ERA) should be enough.

Cardinals vs Diamondbacks weather

While Chase Field has a retractable roof, it will be closed for the duration of this series with the Cardinals. Weather will not play a role.

Cardinals vs Diamondbacks odds

• Moneyline: Cardinals +100 | Diamondbacks -104
• Run line: Cardinals -1.5 (+156) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-163)
• Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+117) | Under 9.5 (-122)

Cardinals vs Diamondbacks trend

The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 23 away games (+8.30 Units / 31% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks.

How to watch Cardinals vs Diamondbacks and game info

Cardinals vs Diamondbacks latest injuries

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Go Rays!