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The Los Angeles Dodgers finished the 2025 season with more days on the injured list than any other team—it hardly came as a surprise, considering the track record of this organization and many of its pitchers. While that illustrates just how often the Dodgers must turn to their outstanding depth, it doesn’t even cover the whole story. Occasionally moving to a six-man rotation—being quite strict about the pitch counts on their starters—the Dodgers are ultraconservative to benefit the most from their hyperaggression in capitalizing on their financial advantages to acquire a depth most teams do not and cannot possess.

Oftentimes, we look for one all-encompassing explanation when tendencies such as this one come together due to several different factors, one of which might be overlooked. Yes. The Dodgers have a lot of what one might refer to as injury-prone starters, but they don’t really handle these players in the same way that the other 29 teams would—Blake Snell this season being the latest and one of the better examples of it.

Snell and even Dave Roberts indicated at various points in the buildup to this season that the Dodgers were going to err on the side of caution with the left-hander. After sort of powering through some shoulder discomfort last spring—perhaps looking to prove himself the same way every player does after signing a big-money, long-term contract—Snell ultimately had to be put on the IL during the season. Although he came back in time for the playoffs, that scare inevitably led to a more cautious approach in 2026.

Snell is one of many talented and high-priced Dodger pitchers whom the organization can be cautious with, as it possesses the depth to withstand their absences over the course of a 162-game season. A different way to think about this situation is to ponder how big a health disaster would be required before your average fan was genuinely concerned about the Dodgers’ chances of making the postseason—something nearly treated as a foregone conclusion ahead of every season, however ludicrous that may seem.

Don’t get this wrong: if they all can follow the lead of Yoshinobu Yamamoto last season and deliver 30+ starts in the regular season and flourish in October, that’s even better. It’s also an unrealistic expectation out of a group with the injury track record of the likes of Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani, and company.

It’s impossible to gauge this properly, but there is a very real argument to be made that, individually, any of these pitchers—if they were to play on a more pedestrian team—would find themselves with a larger workload in the regular season or more often powering through potential concerns. Snell’s case is the latest, but even if we go back to Shohei Ohtani’s outlook last season, he could’ve been fully built up to pitch consistently far sooner than he did. However, coming off major elbow surgery in a bit of uncharted waters, the Dodgers only cared about having him at his best and with no restrictions to pitch in the playoffs.

All of this boils down to the Dodgers making the most of what they have. Maybe if the track record of Glasnow and Snell involved fewer concerns, the Dodgers would not have been able to add both of them—certainly not for the price each of them cost. And that’s just to name a couple of the more obvious ones.

It has only been two starts, and neither of them have been dominant, but Cade Cavalli is showing exactly why the Nats are so high on him. Through 9.2 innings, Cavalli has posted a 2.79 ERA with 8 strikeouts and a .229 opponents batting average. He has also shown us the stuff that makes people so excited about him.

While Cavalli’s fastball velocity has been slightly down to start the year, his 95-98 MPH heater still has plenty of juice. It has a bit of a cut-ride shape and does a good job setting the table for his secondary pitches. Against righties, Cavalli also throws more of his sinker. I think he could stand to throw it even more against right-handed hitters. It has nasty movement and high velocity.

Despite having a fastball in the mid to upper 90’s, I think the secondary pitches are the real star of the show here. Cavalli’s power 12/6 curveball has long been his best pitch. He can throw it in the mid-80’s while getting the movement of a slower curve. It is a true hammer pitch where the bottom drops out of it. He can throw the pitch to righties and lefties, but I actually think it plays better against lefties.

That is part of why Cavalli had reverse splits last year. Lefties only hit .221 against him, but righties hammered him at a .381 clip. I do not think the curve is inherently worse to righties, it was more about the rest of his mix. Against lefties, Cavalli could rely on his changeup as a real third pitch and an offering that moved away from left handed hitters. 

He did not really have anything that moves away from righties. The fastball is straight, the curve goes up and down and the sinker comes in on them. That made his mix pretty predictable. To combat that, Cavalli added a sweeper this offseason. Cavalli actually talked about the issues he had against righties during Spring Training.

In a limited sample size, Cavalli has been tougher on righties so far this season. He has issued more walks against them than you would like, but he has only allowed one hit to a righty so far. Cavalli is throwing his 4-seamer, sinker, sweeper and curve at least 16% of the time to righties. Those are four distinct weapons that have different movement patterns. This allows him to stay unpredictable.

Speaking of that sweeper, the actual movement profile of the pitch is interesting. It is almost like a second variation of his curveball. His sweeper has much more drop than the typical sweeper, but still gets that side to side movement. A reason for that could be how he throws it. Cavalli has said he throws it similarly to his curve, he just has a slightly different grip.

Regardless, the pitch is distinct enough to be effective. I also think his usage patterns and maybe even some of his shapes will evolve as he learns more about his new arsenal. We have not seen Cavalli’s A game yet, but he has still shown why he is so highly touted.

He dealt with the Phillies lineup pretty comfortably yesterday. With all of the big names in that lineup, this is no easy task. Cavalli also did not really seem to have his best stuff until the fifth inning. He was surviving in those first four innings, but in the fifth and sixth inning, he was dominating.

I actually think Cavalli could be even more unpredictable with his pitch mix. His changeup and sinker are both pitches I like, but he has not been throwing them a ton this season. The sinker usage is only at 14% and the changeup usage is only at 6%. I think he should use the sinker as his primary fastball to righties and he could mix in his changeup even more to lefties.

In 2025 and early 2026, Cavalli’s changeup has been a whiff machine. He had a 41.8% whiff rate on the pitch last year and it is up to 60% this year. Cavalli’s changeup was one of his best pitches in the minors, but it has been underutilized in the big leagues so far. I also think his sinker plays better against righties than his 4-seam does. Having the sinker moving in, the curve moving downward and the sweeper moving away would be a nasty combo against righties.

Cavalli can do so many different things with the ball, so I think his pitch mix will be constantly evolving. Keeping hitters off balance needs to be a big part of Cavalli’s game. The biggest weakness I think Cavalli has is his command. His strike-throwing is solid, but his command within the zone is spotty at times. He will also have more bad misses than some other pitches.

However, I think Cavalli has the velocity, pitch mix and overall stuff to make up for that. If he can improve that command, especially with two strikes, I think he can take off. Even if Cavalli is what he is right now, that is a solid pitcher. 

It took a long time to see the payoff, but the Nats have what they hoped they would get from Cavalli when they drafted him in the first round. He is a big righty with a power fastball, a pair of nasty breaking balls and a surprisingly good changeup. At 27 years old and finally injury free, Cade Cavalli is finally coming into his own.

Wednesday was a rough day at the park for Francisco Lindor. 

The Mets’ usually fundamentally sound veteran shortstop committed not one, but two costly mental mistakes in what ended as a frustrating walk-off loss to the Cardinals. 

First Lindor forgot how many outs there were, calmly jogging to second for the force and turning to the dugout on what should’ve been a routine inning-ending double play in the first.

Freddy Peralta easily escaped after, but it cost the starter five more pitches. 

Lindor would hurt the Mets a bit more a few innings later, though, as he was picked off first a few pitches before Juan Soto broke a scoreless tie with a solo homer in the sixth. 

New York, of course, ended up losing the game 2-1 in extras. 

Lindor did draw a walk for the fourth consecutive game, but he went hitless on the afternoon, leaving him with just one knock in 10 at-bats during the series in St. Louis. 

Despite the tough day, former Mets shortstop Jose Reyes says fans need to relax about the five-time All-Star. 

Relax everybody… my guy Francisco Lindor gonna be good. Bad days happen — that’s baseball. Could happen to anyone. He’s human just like all of us. Watch how he responds… this gonna be good for him and for the organization 🧡💙

— Jose Reyes (@lamelaza_7) April 2, 2026

Lindor’s first opportunity to respond will come in Thursday’s series opener against the Giants.

The Colorado Rockies have their first day off of the 2026 regular season following their surprise series victory over the defending American League champion Toronto Blue Jays. It took the Rockies until June to secure their first series victory in 2025. Does this portend the Rockies are indeed an improved unit?

With the Rockies traveling back home to Denver for their home opener tomorrow, we can tune into some minor league baseball as the Double-A season begins this week! All High-A and Low-A will kick off their season tomorrow to mark the minor league season as fully started!

Check out the Weekly Pebble Report for a story on Charlie Condon as he nears the precipice of a potential Major League debut this season, and for our prospect report for last week!

All MiLB games today are listed in order of start time. Lineups will be added if/as they become available on team social media feeds.

Triple-A: Reno Aces (3-2) vs Albuquerque Isotopes (1-4)

Despite some excellent pitching from Tanner Gordon, Sean Sullivan, and Gabriel Hughes, the Isotopes have just one win in their young season thus far as the offense has struggled to launch. Gordon will toe the rubber again today while Blaine Crim and Zac Veen continue their rehab assignments in an early afternoon affair against the Arizona Diamondbacks’ Triple-A affiliate.

First Pitch: 12:05 p.m. MDT

TV: MiLB.TV

Radio: MiLB.TV

Lineups:

Double-A: Chesapeake Baysox (0-0) vs Hartford Yard Goats (0-0)

The Double-A season starts today with an Eastern League match-up. The Yard Goats clinched a postseason berth in 2024 for the first time in franchise history, only to miss the dance in 2025. What does this season have in store for them? Right-handed Jake Brooks—obtained from the Miami Marlins in exchange for Bradley Blalock this off-season—will start for the Yard Goats.

First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. MDT

TV: MiLB.TV

Radio: MiLB.TV

Lineups:

Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!

First Pitch: 1:10 PM CST

TV: Twins.TV

Radio: TIBN, WCCO 830, The Wolf 102.9, Audacy App

Know thine enemy:Royals Review

The Twins are up against their worst enemy once again, a left-handed pitcher. Cole Ragans is a formidable foe, garnering Cy Young votes a couple of years ago but battled injuries in 2025. However, he is coming off a start in which he walked 4 and allowed 6 hits, including 3 home runs. Hopefully the Twins can catch him in a bad stretch and take advantage, and not actually be the lineup that gets him on track.

Meanwhile, Taj Bradley is on the mound for the Twins and is coming off a 9 strikeout start against the Orioles. He flashed some great stuff, touching 100 on the radar gun at times.

Lineups

Last week, the Yankees’ minor-league season officially began in Buffalo, where the Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders opened their season with a shutout victory over the Bisons. The RailRiders will be priority viewing all season for those who like to keep up with the minor leagues for multiple reasons.

But there are still intriguing prospects that aren’t quite on the cusp of debuting in the major leagues and are looking to put one foot in front of the other to get noticed and put on the pinstripes in the future. That’s what brings us to Double-A Somerset, entering its sixth season as a Yankees affiliate. Occasionally, you’ll even see some players in Double-A who become polished enough that they spend minimal time at the next level — Cam Schlittler notably only had five starts at Triple-A last year after getting the first bump up from Somerset. The ticket to The Show could be closer than you think.

Some of last year’s biggest names are out the door, whether traded or up in Triple-A, but the headliner remains. Who joins him?

The catching will be done in a split between arguably the organization’s best remaining homegrown backstop and a non-roster invitee. Manuel Palencia was playing in the FCL just 10 months ago, but was aggressively promoted as several midseason trades cleaned out the farm’s catching depth with Rafael Flores Jr., Jesus Rodriguez, and Edgleen Perez all going out the door. Palencia’s bat was predictably poor in 37 combined games in High-A and Double-A, but the 23-year-old gets a clean slate here. Miguel Palma, signed from the Astros’ organization in December, is also not known for his bat, so don’t expect a ton of offense here.

On the infield, the star attraction is the Yankees’ No. 1 prospect, George Lombard Jr., who figures to be the everyday shortstop. Lombard got off to a strong start to 2025 in High-A Hudson Valley, but predictably encountered growing pains when he was promoted in May, enduring arguably the minors’ most challenging jump for prospects to make. There’s a seismic difference between the quality of play in High-A and Double-A. Still, Lombard registered a respectable 111 wRC+ with good plate discipline, but they’d like for him to make more contact and tap into his power. Of course, his most mature trait has been picture-esque: his defense.

The rest of the infield features all-or-nothing thumper Tyler Hardman, Coby Morales, and Owen Cobb. Hardman and Morales have experience at this level, but Cobb is new after just nine games in High-A last season. He was Low-A Tampa’s most consistent hitter for much of 2025, hitting .310 in 40 games. The 24-year-old Stanford graduate will be tested. Also down here is former Giants top prospect Marco Luciano, who should play a few different positions.

There are a few interesting names in the outfield. Fans saw a lot of Kenedy Corona in spring training, a normally light-hitting defensive specialist who was signed out of the Astros’ organization. Jace Avina—once acquired from Milwaukee for Jake Bauers—tore up A-ball with impressive game power, but struggled with consistency. Mexican League MVP Nick Torres will look to restart his MLB journey. Garrett Martin hasn’t quite figured it all out yet, but the former undrafted free agent puts up some startling exit velocity numbers, and we saw as much in spring training.

The rotation is headlined by one of the team’s best pitching prospects in former first-round pick Ben Hess, who will start on Opening Day.

A project arm out of Alabama, the Yankees have cleaned up Hess’ command and turned him into a viable starting pitching prospect, but good upside as a reliever with some filthy secondaries. Due to long-term injuries to Chase Hampton (eyeing a midseason return from Tommy John surgery last year) and Brock Selvidge (who just went under the knife himself), the rotation after that lacks star power but has several reliable arms. Xavier Rivas finished 2025 extremely well in High-A and was promoted. Cade Smith missed much of 2025, but the former sixth-round pick has turned heads when healthy, recently recording a 2.13 ERA in the Arizona Fall League. And 26-year-old undrafted free agent Trent Sellers was a reliable mainstay in last year’s rotation.

The bullpen will feature some A-ball stars and some holdovers from the upper minors last year. Eric Reyzelman was once on the fast track to the majors, but the LSU product couldn’t find the strike zone in Scranton last year, so expect him to move back up if he starts strong. Bailey Dees and Michael Arias also come down from Scranton to join the likes of Will Brian, Chris Kean, Geoffrey Gilbert, Matt Keating, and Hayden Merda. Last year’s best MiLB reliever, Hueston Morrill, is on the shelf to start the year after a sub-1 ERA in 2025.

Pitching injuries limit the potential of this rotation to be as good as some of the ones in the past, but it’s not ridiculous to say we could see the currently injured Hampton and Bryce Cunningham up here with Hess, Smith, and Rivas by the summer. The hitting depth in the system beneath Scranton is pretty shallow, especially after the recent Ryan Weathers trade saw 2024 draft reinforcements Dillon Lewis and Brendan Jones go to Miami. There’s ample reason to get out to Somerset for a game if you’re in the area, particularly at the shortstop position.

As Kyle Schwarber began to round the bases on Opening Day, the Rangers TV broadcasters griped that the moonshot that sent him on that short but joyous journey hadn’t quite been earned. A left-handed hitter, they said, can get “cheapies” by sending the ball over Citizens Bank Park’s friendly left-field fence, as Schwarber had. The ball in question, however, was no cheapie: per Statcast, it would’ve been a goner in 25 of 30 parks. To their credit, the broadcasters noticed that statistic as soon as it came through, and corrected themselves on-air. But while they were wrong on that particular homer, the larger point is valid: Citizens Bank Park is a very friendly ballpark for homers, and particularly so for lefties. There is no question that Kyle Schwarber is a legitimate slugger; his power is as genuine as a quarter fresh off the line at the United States Mint. But it is fair to ask: how much has playing in CBP’s affable dimensions aided him?

By Statcast’s Park Factors (looking at 2023-2025), CBP was the fourth most homer-prone park in the bigs, behind only UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium (I’m using the full name less out of respect for the defending champs, and more out of respect for the sponsor, from which I purchased my favorite pair of pants), Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark, and Yankee Stadium. But if we look at left-handed hitters only, no park in MLB is more conducive to four-baggers than CBP. Batters of the sinister sort hit 28% more homers in Philly than they did elsewhere. It stands to reason that Schwarber, being a lefty, would benefit from that. And we can take a look at that via Statcast’s Expected Home Runs by Park metric, which tell us how many homers a player would have expected to have hit (xHR) if all of his batted balls were at a given park.

In 2025, Schwarber would’ve had 58 homers if all of his plate appearances were at home; only putting all of his batted balls in the A’s temporary digs in Sacramento would’ve given him more. In 2024, only Great American Ballpark would’ve allowed him to smash more dingers, and in 2023, no park would’ve been better for him than home, sweet home. So it’s clear that hitting at CBP really does help Schwarber hit more dingers.

There is something a little strange, though. You’d expect putting all of Schwarber’s batted balls in CBP to result in more homers than the actual Schwarber hit, given that no park in baseball is friendlier to lefty batters. But that’s not what we see. Here’s Schwarber’s actual homers (including postseason), vs. what Statcast says he’d have if we lived in a perfect world where every game were played at CBP, and every seventh inning featured a Phanatic Dance:

During his Phillies tenure, Schwarber has had only one season in which he’d have hit more homers if all of his batted balls were in Philly. That’s unusual, given how homer-friendly CBP is. Granted, half of Schwarber’s games really are played at CBP, meaning some of the benefits of putting all of his batted balls there are already baked in to his actual stats. But since all of the parks he plays in on the road are less conducive to lefty homers than CBP, you’d still expect moving all of those road batted balls to CBP to result in more hypothetical homers.

And as an example of this, if you look at some of the Phillies’ other lefties over the same time period, you’ll see that their xHR with all of their batted balls in CBP surpass their actual HR totals. Bryce Harper’s xHR totals in a CBP-only world were higher than his actual HR totals in each of the past four seasons. Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh would’ve had more homers in said world in three of the past four. Why is Schwarber different?

If you looked closely at the table above (and I’m not offended if you didn’t), you may have noticed that the rightmost column is labeled Adjusted xHR. Specifically, Statcast adjusts for environmental effects. Wind, temperature, so on and so forth. Statcast also provides Standard xHR, which does not take environmental effects into account— just the dimensions of the park. And if we look at that…

…we see that, absent the effects of wind and weather, our hypothetical Oops! All CBP! Schwarber would’ve hit more homers than the actual Schwarber did in three of the past four seasons. We know that batters at Citizens Bank Park are particularly likely to lose homers to the wind, so that makes sense. But it can’t entirely explain what we’re seeing here. After all, Harper, Stott, and Marsh are all playing with the same wind, and they still benefited, homer-wise, by putting all of their batted balls in CBP even when adjusting for the impact of the wind. The left-handed hitters that stepped into CBP presumably lost some homers to the wind, but not enough to stop it from being the best park for hitting left-handed four-baggers by Park Factors . There isn’t any immediate reason to think Schwarber would be more impacted by wind than other lefties. So while the wind is clearly taking a few homers from his already lofty totals, it can’t provide the entirety of the explanation we’re looking for.

There’s two things you need for a cheapie homer: a park that offers an easier path to homer-dom to batted balls hit in a particular direction, and a ball that’s borderline enough to benefit from that benevolence. No matter what the park dimensions are, a ball that’s hammered deep into the cheap seats isn’t a cheapie. It’s just a regular homer. You know what Kyle Schwarber does? Hit the ball so damn hard that the dimensions of the stadium don’t seem to matter much. Maybe he’s not getting too many cheapie homers at CBP, actual or expected, because he’s just hitting the ball so hard.

Statcast divides any batted ball that would’ve been a homer in at least one stadium into three categories: Doubters (homers in 1 to 7 parks), Mostly Gone (homers in 8 to 29 parks), and No Doubters (gone in every park, and also fans of Gwen Stefani’s earlier work). In 2025, Schwarber’s No Doubter rate was 51.7%. Contrast with Harper’s, 29.6%, Stott’s 30.8%, or Marsh’s 27.3%. That suggests that part of the reason why that trio benefitted more from CBP’s dimensions than Schwarber over the past four seasons is that Schwarber is smacking the ball so hard that the lefty-friendly wall depth just isn’t as meaningful for him. He’s not putting as many balls in that borderline range where the helping hand of the bandbox-style park makes the difference. Not much in baseball can be explained by a single factor; there are certainly other things going on here as well. Pure variance is probably part of it. After all, the dimensions of the ballpark are still helping him; he’d have fewer homers if he called most other parks home.

We can conclude with the following Phacts about Schwarber:

1. Playing his home games at CBP really does help Schwarber hit more home runs.
2. But the benefit of CBP’s dimensions is somewhat blunted by the park’s strong winds.
3. He hits the ball so hard and so far that the dimensions of the park may not be quite as impactful on his homer totals as they are for other lefties.

Everyone loves a discount. But Kyle won’t be clipping coupons for BOGO blasts anytime soon.

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Diamondbacks fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

We’ve now had the chance to see every starting pitcher take the mound for the Arizona Diamondbacks – twice, in the case of Zac Gallen. The results have been somewhat mixed. On Opening Day, Gallen was undone by the prototypical “one bad inning,” but rebounded yesterday against Detroit, with six shutout frames. Ryne Nelson and Brandon Pfaadt also caught a severe case of OBI-itis. But Eduardo Rodriguez and, even more of a surprise, Michael Soroka (top) were both excellent. Soroka’s outing was, arguably, the best ever by any starting pitcher making their debut in a D-backs uniform. Did not see that coming.

The team should get Merrill Kelly back shortly, and it’s then going to be an interesting decision as to who gets booted to work long relief out of the bullpen. While Soroka would have been the man in that role, if Kelly was healthy for his planned Opening Day start, his dominant first outing throws that into some doubt. Pfaadt is probably the one on the shortest leash immediately, but we will certainly have another turn around the rotation before anything has to be decided. Kelly could be activated as early as next Wednesday, but that’ll depend on how he gets through his rehab start with Reno on Friday .

Further down the pipe, we will be getting theoretical staff ace, Corbin Burnes back. If he returns to the form he showed before getting injured last year, that will certainly be a significant boost to the rotation. All told, there are a lot of moving parts, and we are still very much in the part of the season where it’s a very small sample size. But who do you think will be the team’s most valuable pitcher this year? I’d probably suggest going with the average of bWAR and fWAR, since they do measure things in slightly different ways. But it’s really up to you, how to define the term. Of course, please explain your choice in the comments.

Thank you for the warm reception from my debut article. I’m sure I’ll have missteps along the way, but I’m aiming to live up to the high standard VEB has set. Expect to see me weekly going forward. I’ll see you in the comments!

This season is the year of reckoning for Jordan Walker. He comes from a seemingly endless line of Cardinals prospects over the years to never live up to the expectations put on them from a “draft and develop franchise.” Let’s rip the bandaid off and mention some names: Carlson, Reyes, Luke Weaver, Delvin Perez, even Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty to a certain extent. The Cardinals lost their way in prospect development in the same way if Walmart turned into a real estate company – you have to nail the stated mission if it’s going to be your stated mission.

This leads me to ask the ultimate existential question about the career of Jordan Walker: on this Easter weekend, is the resurrection of his career that we all want so bad even possible? Is there any historical precedent for becoming a productive hitter after essentially being the worst hitter in Major League Baseball? Or, have Jordan Walker and the Cardinals tag teamed this like Harry and Lloyd from Dumb and Dumber and wrung the head off a career that had so much promise?

Before I get into the historical precedents (kind of sounds like a journey through important Supreme Court cases – honestly it’s approaching that level of importance for the Cardinals), Jordan Walker deserves some praise for the early, early, early, early, (yes it’s early!) returns from this season. After struggling mightily in spring training and being banished to the hitting lab to adjust, Jordan Walker seems to have, well, adjusted. At the time of this writing, Walker is running a cool .294/.400/.538 line, good for a 180 wRC+. I can’t remember the last time he had a five game stretch that was this awesome. Here’s the kicker though, despite a recent rash of strikeouts, Walker is running a 15% K rate with a 15% walk rate. Those are Wetherholtian numbers (wow does that guy look electric!).

Yes it’s early, early, early, early, early (yes I’m still aware), but he has talked about his approach changing and simplifying the mental game. The Cardinals tried to change his launch angle (which did need to be fixed), and like a golf swing that needs work, opened up 2-3 other crisis level issues which combined to make him The Worst Hitter in Baseball (the capitals felt right for that distinction). If he can maintain this performance on a simplified track, perhaps there is hope. We discussed this further on our last episode of Redbird Rundown If you’d like more coverage and audio/visual is your thing. (Apple and Spotify links!)

Now, to tackle the original question of the article. Can we have an Easter resurrection of Jordan Walker’s career? Yes, it’s mostly been a crown of thorns so far, but is there any hope? I went searching for players in their age 21 to 23 seasons with an OPS+ between 60 and 80 and at least 500 PA. The results came back with 118 players – a ton of guys have struggled in their first attempts at Major League Baseball!

Let’s not pull any punches. Jordan Walker is dancing on a knife’s edge. The list is littered with guys that never made it offensively. In fact, from the list of players who met those statistical measures, a vast majority of them never made it. You didn’t need me to tell you that Jordan Walker’s career is on life support, but the historical record helped check him right into the ICU. But, we’re simply looking for what’s possible here, so where’s the resurrection hope? It exists on this list, too.

There are several hall of fame players (and hall of very good players!) populating the early-struggler list: Ron Santo, Carlos Gomez, Carlon Beltran, and Pete Rose among them. But a few specific results really stood out to me if we’re interested in rolling away the stone from the tomb of Jordan Walker’s career.

Mike Schmidt put together a .196/.324/.373 line as a 23 year old with a 30.7% K rate and no power to speak of – we all know how his career turned out. Aaron Judge didn’t even play in the MLB from age 21 to 23, and at age 24 came up for a cup of coffee and struck out 44.7% of the time. Byron Buxton appeared to be a spectacular failure as the number one prospect in baseball and then ran wRC+ lower than Walker in his first two partial season before it came together for him.

I want to make sure and drive home an important point here though: The last two paragraphs were me cherry picking the absolute best case scenarios for the resurrection of Jordan Walker. It’s possible, but it’s not likely. Don’t get me wrong, I’m rooting for him to finally figure it out. With apologies to cleanup hitter Masyn Winn, we could use another power bat right in the middle of the lineup for years to come. The extremely early returns are encouraging thus far in 2026, but the hole that has been dug is quite deep. It turns out though, there is still hope for a resurrection from the historical record.

Let me know what you think in the comments! It was interesting to do this deep dive on Walker. If you’re interested in more thoughts and analysis live during games you can find me on twitter @mksmith86 or tons more in-game analysis and commentary from our podcast twitter @redbirdrundown2. 

Thanks for reading!

Jonny Farmelo’s professional career has unfortunately been defined by his absence. First battling a torn ACL, Farmelo missed the bulk of his debut season, cooling some of the momentum he’d built after a hot start had him rapidly ascending up prospect rankings. Opening last season late due to an oblique injury, he would again return to the injured list with a stress fracture in his ribs that sidelined him until early August, limiting his season AB total to just over 100. Having notched just 350 PA’s in the minor leagues, Farmelo is still a bit of a mystery at this point, but with the immense upside his tools provide him, he remains within our system top five and is primed to be a “breakout” prospect that’s entering his third minor league season.

Farmelo is in a strange spot right now. A twitchy athlete with a unique swing that’s direct to the ball, Farmelo has the look of a high contact centerfielder that uses his borderline elite speed to make up for a lack of juice, but in reality, it’s kind of the opposite. Farmelo’s power is real, and coupling it with his speed/centerfield skills makes him an unbelievably exciting prospect, but Farmelo saw his contact numbers take a step back last season after his injury-plagued year. It’s natural to see some rust when a player misses considerable amounts of time, and Farmelo having been sidelined for nearly half of his time as a professional only compounds that issue, but the uptick in whiff is certainly something to be cognizant of.

The ideal version of Farmelo has a blend of this power uptick mixed into his “old” offensive approach from his first year as a professional. Farmelo, an excellent base stealer, is capable of being a dynamic threat atop a lineup, but that profile is a bit tougher to justify if he’s running K rates just south of 30%. With his routinely robust walk rates and track record of displaying better K rates in the past, there’s less of a concern Farmelo has turned into a TTO slugger than his numbers might suggest, but it’s something fans should absolutely monitor this season. His first healthy opening day since his debut in 2024, this season will be a massive year for Farmelo, hopefully providing our first full season sample of the kind of player Farmelo actually is.

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It’s a light slate on the diamond with just three games gracing the MLB schedule, but there's still plenty of value to uncover in today's MLB player props.

My top picks include a pair of RBI props: one for a batter riding a hot start, and another for a hitter looking to break out of an early-season slump.

Find out more in my MLB picks for Thursday, April 2.

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Taj Bradley	Over 15.5 outs recorded	-108
Corbin Carroll	Over 0.5 RBI	+170
Heliot Ramos	Over 0.5 RBI	+200

Taj Bradley Over 15.5 outs recorded (-108)

Minnesota Twins starter Taj Bradley struck out nine batters in his first start of the season against Baltimore, but he lasted just 4 1/3 innings. He walked three and quickly drove up his pitch count, leading to an early hook.

Today, the hard-throwing righty faces the Kansas City Royals, who don’t strike out as often — something that could result in quicker outs.

With an above-average leash on pitch count, a few more efficient innings should help him clear this prop.

• Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MLB Network

Corbin Carroll Over 0.5 RBI (+170)

Corbin Carroll is off to a great start for the Arizona Diamondbacks, and I’m betting that continues when he digs into the batter’s box against the Atlanta Braves. 

The two-time All-Star enters this game hitting .333 with a 1.162 OPS through the early part of the season. He’s also been productive as hell, driving in eight runs, all coming in the D-backs' last four games.

Although Reynaldo Lopez is coming off a strong start where he allowed just one run on six hits against Kansas City, Carroll was very dangerous against righties last season, getting to them for a .918 OPS.

Lopez also struggled a bit with his command in his first start of the season, so I love Carroll to drive in another run at this price.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ESPN Unlimited

Heliot Ramos Over 0.5 RBI (+200)

It’s been a slow start to the season for Heliot Ramos, but the San Francisco Giants outfielder is a strong hitter who consistently makes hard contact, and tonight’s matchup with the New York Mets should help him get back on track.

The Mets will start David Peterson. The lefty didn’t allow a run in his first outing of the season, but he got a bit lucky, giving up six hits and two walks over 5 1/3 innings.

Ramos also has solid career numbers vs. Peterson, going 3-for-8 with a .376 expected batting average and a .624 expected slugging.

• Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SNY, NBC Sports Bay Area

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