DENVER, CO - JULY 22: Cade Cavalli #24 of the Washington Nationals pitches during the game between the Washington Nationals and the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on Wednesday, July 22, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Casey Paul/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
When Cade Cavalli entered the season as the Opening Day starter, expectations were high, but there was also plenty of uncertainty. Cavalli showed us a glimpse of his high potential down the stretch last year. However, he was still very unproven and had a lengthy injury history. For a guy in his first full MLB season, Cavalli has been remarkably consistent this year.
Cavalli has been a metronome in the Nats rotation. He has been overshadowed a bit by Foster Griffin, whose elite run prevention and great story have attracted eye balls. However, Cavalli has arguably been even more consistent than Griffin. He has allowed 3 or more earned runs just twice this season and does not have a month where his ERA is over 4, outside of his one start in March.
For as great as Griffin has been, he did have a couple blowup starts in May, resulting in a 4.86 ERA that month. Meanwhile, Cavalli posted a 3.67 ERA in April, a 3.41 ERA in May, a 3.82 ERA in June and a 3.10 ERA so far in July. That is just a remarkable level of consistency for a guy in his first full big league season, who missed almost two years with injury not too long ago.
One critique you could throw at Cavalli, especially early in the season, is that he did not go deep enough into games. It is something he will need to work on to take the next step. Despite making two fewer starts, Griffin has still logged more innings than Cavalli.
There are a couple reasons for this. One is that the Nats are still being a bit careful with Cavalli. His career high in innings before this year is 127.2 innings, which he did all the way back in 2022. Cavalli did pitch 122.2 innings last year as well. However, he is already at 110.2 innings this year.
Butera has said in the past they will not shut Cavalli down unless they see a noticeable drop in stuff. Despite that, it is clear they are monitoring his work load. There have been a few times this season, including yesterday where Cavalli could have gone one more inning, but they held him back.
Another reason he does not go super deep into games is that he can be inefficient at times. It is a bit like MacKenzie Gore where there are a lot of deep counts, though not to that level. As the season has gone on though, he is starting to give the Nats the length expected of a front line starter.
Yesterday, Cavalli completed at least six innings for the sixth time in his last seven starts. Granted, he could not even go three innings in that other start, but that was clearly an outlier. It was a very hot day and the whole Boston situation seemed to be weighing on Cavalli.
Cade Cavalli was sensational again today.
Massive game with a series on the line against an inferior team, days away from a buy/sell decision. He was dominant. Looked like an ace.
He’s gone 6+ innings in 6 of his last 7 starts. Pitching like a bonafide front-line starter. pic.twitter.com/kNwXequAGl
In the three starts since that short outing in DC, Cavalli has been back to his best. He did not have his sharpest stuff against the Yankees, but he still logged a quality start. In his last two though, Cavalli has been excellent. The fastball is living in the upper 90’s and his breaking balls have had a ton of bite. Going into Coors Field and getting out without allowing a run is impressive stuff. That is exactly what Cade did yesterday.
He had some traffic on the bases at times, but when he needed to make a big pitch, Cavalli came through again and again. The big righty was up to 99 MPH and was sitting at 97. Instead of slowing down, it feels like Cavalli has found another gear as the season has gone on, which is lovely to see.
Cavalli has also implemented a new weapon recently with his cutter. He would show one maybe once an outing before July, but he has made it a core part of his arsenal lately. His 92-95 MPH cutter pairs nicely with his 4-seamer which already has natural cut. It is not a swing and miss pitch, but it generates weaker contact and just gives him another look.
Pitching these days is a cat and mouse game. As hitters adjust to your stuff, you have to adapt on the fly. You can do that by mixing up your usage or command. That is what Cavalli has been doing lately. It is resulting in more success, and notably more strikeouts.
For the season, Cavalli has a 26.6% K rate and a 7.1% walk rate. Those are very strong numbers, and only have been improving as the season goes along. Cavalli is almost 28, but he is still a young pitcher who is adapting to the big leagues. Right now, it really feels like he is settling in and finding his groove.
This season, Cavalli has been an ultra-consistent number 2 starter. However, I still think the best is yet to come for Cavalli, who is just oozing with arm talent. Few pitchers have his velocity and feel for spin. It is special stuff, and if he stays healthy, Cavalli has the chance to be an All-Star level talent for the Nats who can start playoff games.
On this day 17 years ago, Mark Buehrle was perfect. | (Photo by Ron Vesely/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
1931 With the Red Sox crushing the White Sox in the bottom of the sixth inning at Fenway Park, 13-4, Boston right fielder Earl Webb lined into a triple play: White Sox third baseman Billy Sullivan made the snag and caught Rabbit Warstler off of third base for the second out, then tripled Jack Rothrock off of first base with a throw across the diamond to Pale Hose first-sacker Lu Blue.
Despite that highlight, the White Sox lost this game early, as starter Pat Caraway was tagged with 11 earned runs on 13 hits without getting through the fifth inning. The lefthander had to wear it for a terrible (31-57) White Sox team. Caraway himself would end up having one of the worst falls from stardom in White Sox history, as he took an unbelievable 4.4 WAR rookie season in 1930 and ended up at -2.2 WAR and an MLB-leading 24 losses in 1931.
1951 Although he was just two years into pro ball and already 29 years old, the White Sox took notice of the outstanding season Jim Rivera was having for the Seattle Rainers of the Pacific Coast League (he would win the PCL batting title and MVP, slashing .352/.420/.553 with 20 homers and 33 steals) and signed him.
He would not debut with the White Sox until 1952, but would play in 10 seasons on the South Side, and more than 1,000 games, totaling 6.0 WAR.
1968 Manager Al Lopez had an emergency appendectomy, and would miss 36 games. Les Moss took over while Lopez was sidelined.
1986 GM Ken Harrelson sent Bobby Bonilla back to the Pirates for pitcher José DeLeón, in an oft-criticized deal that rarely presents the entire picture.
Bonilla was selected from Pittsburgh by the Sox in the major league draft in December 1985, and was likely a player the Pirates desperately wanted back. He showed flashes of brilliance in his half season on the South Side, but just 0.5 WAR in his half-season on the South Side. He would go on to have four brilliant seasons with the Pirates, putting up 17.9 WAR before cashing in on a famous/infamous free-agent contract with the New York Mets that pays him to this day.
DeLeón, for his part, was a productive starter on the South Side, putting up 3.7 WAR over a season and a third before GM Larry Himes flipped him to the St. Louis Cardinals in a brilliant deal netting center fielder Lance Johnson and pitcher Ricky Horton.
Johnson was a gem for the White Sox, netting the club 21.3 WAR over six-plus seasons roaming center field. Without the Bonilla trade, there is no One Dog.
Ironically, both players — Bonilla and Johnson — ended their careers with 30.2 WAR.
2007 All-time great White Sox pitcher Billy Pierce was honored with a statue at Sox Park, becoming the sixth White Sox legend so honored. Beyond being a wonderful person and lifetime ambassador (both unofficially, and officially) for the team, he was an amazing pitcher, as good as anyone in baseball in the 1950s.
Pierce ranks first all-time in White Sox strikeouts (1,796), third in shutouts (35), fourth in wins (186) and innings (2,931), third in starts (391) and fifth in games pitched (456), tied for fifth in complete games (183), sixth in pitching WAR (49.2) and second among southpaws, 10th in adjusted ERA+ (123), 20th in hits per nine innings (8.116), tied for 25th in FIP (3.42) and 27th in ERA (3.19).
Pierce received embarrassingly scant support when up for the Hall of Fame in the early 1970s, but there is hope that a Veterans Committee will right that wrong in the coming years.
2009 It had only happened 17 times before, and on this date, Mark Buehrle became the 18th pitcher to throw a perfect game, when he shut down Tampa, 5-0.
It was only the second no-hitter thrown at the new Sox Park — both thrown by Buehrle.
The lefthander was helped in the top of the ninth inning when Dewayne Wise made the catch of his career, leaping above the wall in left-center to snare a ball hit by Gabe Kapler. On the way down Wise started to lose the ball, then snatched it out of the air with his other hand as he tumbled to the ground. Wise had been inserted for the ninth as a defensive replacement, so this play — among the best in White Sox and baseball history — was his first action in the game.
Buehrle completed the perfect game in two hours and three minutes — the exact same amount of time as his no-hitter in 2007. He became only the fourth pitcher to ever throw a perfect game and a no-hitter (April 18, 2007), joining Cy Young, Sandy Koufax and Randy Johnson. He also joined Charlie Robertson as White Sox who have pitched a perfect game.
Afterward, Buehrle got a call from President Barack Obama, a huge White Sox fan.
2016 It was certainly a strange and bizarre situation for the Sox. Chris Sale, arguably the best pitcher in the American League and one of the best in baseball, went on a pregame rampage and was scratched from his scheduled start against the Tigers at U.S. Cellular Field. Salewas upset that he had to wear a 1976 throwback jersey as part of a promotion for the game.
Sale thought it was uncomfortable. With the heat index more than 100°, wearing a dark blue/black jersey probably wasn’t the smartest thing to do, either. Sale decided to take matters into his own hands: During batting practice, he destroyed most of the game jerseys the team was supposed to wear by slashing them with a knife. He also said publicly the White Sox were more concerned with public relations and uniforms than winning games.
The White Sox, flirting at .500 at the time and just 3 1⁄2games out of second place in the AL Central, was forced to start Matt Albers, who went two innings, giving up one run. The bullpen game ended in a 4-3 triumph: Adam Eaton, down to his last strike on a full count, lined a game-winning single in the bottom of the ninth to score Avisaíl García, who led off the inning with a single and stolen base.
Sale was suspended for five games for the incident, and was traded to Boston for a package headlined by Michael Kopech and Yoán Moncada after the season.
CLEVELAND, OH - JULY 21: Byron Buxton #25 of the Minnesota Twins looks on during the game between the Minnesota Twins and the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on Tuesday, July 21, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Grace Hoppel/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Late game thread because I forgot I was filling in for our beloved sandwiches. Apologies, everyone! Split the series Twins, split!
Kane, the No. 1 overall pick of the Blackhawks in 2007, previously played for Chicago from 2007-23, scoring 446 goals and 1,225 points in 1,161 regular-season games. He ranks second in franchise points behind Stan Mikita and third in goals behind Bobby Hull and Mikita.
Here are the winners and losers on Patrick Kane's return to the Chicago Blackhawks:
They haven't made the playoffs since 2020 and have finished last in the Central Division the past four seasons. That isn't likely to change, especially considering Bedard's early absence. But bringing back a franchise icon will pump up the fan base and Kane can still produce, with 57 points in 67 games last season, when he passed Mike Modano to become the top U.S-born leading scorer. Kane can help with the offense while Bedard is out.
Connor Bedard
Could the new face of the franchise play alongside the franchise's No. 2 overall scorer? Their styles would be a good fit. Plus, Kane would serve as a mentor. Bedard talked about the possibility of a Blackhawks reunion with Kane during a recent media availability.
"That would be incredible to get to play with him and learn from him," he said. "It would make us a way better team. He's still an amazing player."
Patrick Kane
Kane cashes in with an $8 million average annual value contract after three smaller deals. He had signed a $2.75 million deal with the Detroit Red Wings in 2023-24 after he recovered from hip surgery, then re-signed for one-year deals of $4 million and $3 million with performance bonuses. According to puckpedia.com, he gets an $8 million signing bonus and a $6 million one the second year, with annual $1 million salaries.
Kane was born in Buffalo but chose a different kind of homecoming by signing with the Blackhawks. The Sabres lost free agent Alex Tuch to the Washington Capitals in a sign-and-trade deal but haven't replaced his 33 goals. Kane had 20 or more goals in his first two seasons in Detroit. The Sabres will face Kane and the Blackhawks in their home opener on Oct. 3.
Detroit Red Wings
The Red Wings gave Kane a chance after his hip surgery and he spent three seasons there, totaling 163 points in 189 games. Though former general manager Steve Yzerman said he wanted to re-sign Kane, Detroit wasn't on his top two list, according to Chelios. That's another blow in a tumultuous offseason that has seen Yzerman give up the general manager role and captain Dylan Larkin ask for a trade.
Blackhawks youngsters
This is more a winner than a loser because they will benefit from having the veteran around, but Kane will assume a big role on the team and younger players will have to wait for their opportunity.
Jun 7, 2026; Denver, Colorado, USA; Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Garrett Mitchell (5) celebrates after a triple to center in the ninth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images | Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images
The Milwaukee Brewers are set to wrap up their nine-game homestand coming out of the All-Star break this weekend, as they’ll host the Colorado Rockies for three games beginning Friday night.
The Brewers sit at 64-38 on the year, the second-best record in the league behind only the Dodgers, as they’ve built a seven-game lead over the Cubs and the rest of the pack in the NL Central. The Rockies, at 41-63, once again sit at the bottom of the NL West. They’ve lost four consecutive series against the Giants (x2), Dodgers, and Reds dating back to early July.
Milwaukee’s injured list includes pitchers DL Hall (late July/early August return), Kyle Harrison (early August), Joel Kuhnel (early August), Rob Zastryzny (late July), Brandon Woodruff (out for season), Brian Fitzpatrick (out for season), Quinn Priester (out for season), and Angel Zerpa (out for season). The position player injuries include outfielders Brandon Lockridge (late July/early August) and Sal Frelick (TBD), as well as infielder David Hamilton (expected to return this weekend).
Colorado is currently without pitchers Blas Castaño (TBD), Jeff Criswell (August), Jaden Hill (TBD), former Brewer Jose Quintana (August), McCade Brown (TBD), RJ Petit (out for season), Chase Dollander (out for season), and Pierson Ohl (out for season). Outfielder Brenton Doyle has been out since mid-May with oblique and groin injuries, but he’s close to a rehab assignment, while former Cub Kris Bryant may be nearing retirement as he hasn’t played in any games this year with chronic back issues.
Jake Bauers sets the pace for the Crew’s offense with 18 homers and 15 doubles this year, though he’s going through a bit of a cold stretch currently. Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio, William Contreras, Garrett Mitchell, and Joey Ortiz(!!) are the other key contributors in recent weeks, with Andrew Vaughn, Gary Sánchez, Christian Yelich, Cooper Pratt, Luis Lara, Braden Shewmake, and Blake Perkins also in the mix. As a team, the Brewers are hitting .252/.336/.397 (.733 OPS ranks 10th), with 94 homers (last), 514 runs (fifth), and 100 steals (sixth).
Backstop Hunter Goodman and outfielder Mickey Moniak have been the best offensive players for Colorado, as Goodman leads the team with 31 homers and Moniak has added 16 homers and 11 doubles in just 67 games. Rookie TJ Rumfield is hitting .297/.381/.476 with 13 homers, and Jake McCarthy is batting over .300. Willi Castro, Kyle Karros, Braxton Fulford, Troy Johnston, Tyler Freeman, Cole Carrigg, Ezequiel Tovar, Edouard Julien, and Brett Sullivan round things out. As a team, the Rockies are hitting .255/.325/.420 (.745 OPS ranks fifth), with 118 homers (17th), 495 runs (tied for seventh), and 70 steals (tied for 14th).
Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill anchor Milwaukee’s bullpen, as they’ve combined for 22 saves. Uribe has a 2.38 ERA with 41 strikeouts over 41 2/3 innings, and Megill has a 3.00 ERA and 48 strikeouts over 39 innings, a major feat when you consider where he was two weeks into the season. Chad Patrick, Aaron Ashby, and Grant Anderson are also key parts of this Brewer bullpen, with Criag Yoho, Lance McCullers Jr., and Bryse Wilson rounding things out. As a staff, the Brewers have a 3.44 team ERA (second), including a 3.36 starter ERA (first) and a 3.53 bullpen ERA (fourth). They’ve struck out 997 batters (second) over 913 2/3 innings.
Brennan Bernardino is one of the few bright spots for this Rockies bullpen, as he has a 2.74 ERA over 42 2/3 innings this year. Juan Mejia and Victor Vodnik are tied for the team lead with four saves each, though both have ERAs in the 5.00s. Former starter-turned-reliever Antonio Senzatela has been solid with 3.60 ERA, as has long-reliever/starter Gabriel Hughes (2.79 ERA over 19 1/3 IP) and former closer Jordan Romano (1.59 ERA over 5 2/3 IP) in limited appearances. The two other bulk relievers have struggled — Jimmy Herget has a 5.60 ERA over 27 1/3 IP, and Zach Agnos sports a 6.42 ERA over 61 2/3 IP. As a staff, the Rockies have a 5.50 team ERA (last), including a 6.00 starter ERA (last) and a 4.95 bullpen ERA (26th). They’ve struck out 735 batters (29th) over 914 1/3 innings.
Also of note: The Brewers are hosting an Alumni Legends Game after Friday’s game, which is why it has the odd 3:10 p.m. start time. The Legends Game will feature approximately 30 players for a three-inning exhibition set to begin 15 minutes after the conclusion of the Brewers-Rockies game. Players confirmed to be playing include Ryan Braun, Yovani Gallardo, Ben Sheets, Geoff Jenkins, and many more. To view the full list, click here.
Drohan, 27, has quickly become a solid option in Milwaukee’s rotation, as he’s gone at least six innings in each of his last three outings. The left-hander has totaled 76 innings this year with a 3.20 ERA, 3.08 FIP, and 76 strikeouts. He went six frames against the Marlins in his last outing, picking up the win as he allowed three runs on five hits and a walk, striking out nine batters. Drohan picked up a win in his start against the Rockies in early June, allowing three runs on five hits and a walk, striking out four over 6 1/3 innings.
Sugano, 36, is in his second MLB season after starting 30 games for the Orioles last season. He’s had similar numbers in year No. 2 with the Rockies, with a 4.76 ERA, 5.39 FIP, and 51 strikeouts over 90 2/3 innings. He bounced back from a rough seven-run outing against the Twins to pitch 6 1/3 innings with three runs allowed in a win over the Reds in his last appearance, giving up six hits and no walks while striking out three. Sugano’s lone appearance against Milwaukee came as an Oriole last year, when he went six innings with two runs allowed on five hits and a walk, striking out three in a no-decision.
Saturday, July 25 @ 6:10 p.m.: LHP Robert Gasser (2-4, 4.91 ERA, 5.13 FIP) vs. RHP Ryan Feltner (3-4, 5.48 ERA, 5.68 FIP)
Gasser, 27, has had his ups and downs in his third MLB season, though he’s made more appearances this year (10) than in 2024 and 2025 combined (seven). Over his 10 starts, he’s 2-4 with a 4.91 ERA, 5.13 FIP, and 48 strikeouts across 51 1/3 innings. The lefty went five innings in a no-decision against the Marlins on Sunday, allowing one run on three hits and no walks while striking out five. This marks Gasser’s first career appearance against Colorado.
Feltner, 29, is in his sixth MLB season, and he’s been serviceable albeit not good for his entire career. He’s made 14 starts this year, with a 3-4 record, 5.48 ERA, 5.68 FIP, and 50 strikeouts over 65 2/3 innings. The right-hander has been hit hard against the Giants and Reds in his last two outings, totaling just 6 2/3 innings with 12 runs allowed on 13 hit and eight walks while striking out six. Feltner has made six career starts against the Brewers, and he’s been mostly successful with a 2.67 ERA and 30 strikeouts over 33 2/3 innings. That includes a solid six-inning showing back in June, when he allowed one run on one hit, two walks, and a hit batter while striking out four.
Sunday, July 26 @ 1:10 p.m.: RHP Jacob Misiorowski (10-4, 1.57 ERA, 2.05 FIP) vs. LHP Kyle Freeland (2-9, 7.28 ERA, 4.90 FIP)
Misiorowski, 24, continues to mow down hitters even as the Brewers have tried to ease back his workload out of the All-Star break. He leads the majors in plenty of major categories, including ERA (1.57), FIP (2.05), WHIP (0.774), and strikeouts (173) across 115 innings. He went four innings against the Mets on Monday evening, allowing one unearned run on four hits and a walk, striking out six. Miz looked great against Colorado when he faced them back on June 6, allowing one unearned run on four hits and three walks, striking out eight over seven frames.
Freeland, 33, is in his 10th big-league season, all with the Rockies, and he’s been mostly bad since finishing fourth in NL Cy Young voting back in 2018. This year has been his worst, though, as he’s totaled -0.8 bWAR with a 2-9 record, 7.28 ERA, 4.90 FIP, and 83 strikeouts over 94 innings. He leads the league with 76 earned runs, including at least four runs allowed in four of his last five outings. He went six innings against the Nationals his last time out, allowing four runs on seven hits and a pair of walks, striking out four. Freeland has made 11 career starts against Milwaukee, with a 3.55 ERA and 53 strikeouts over 63 1/3 innings. He went five frames against the Crew in June, allowing three runs on seven hits and a walk while striking out two.
How to Watch & Listen
Friday, July 24: Brewers TV; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)
Saturday, July 25: Brewers TV; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)
Sunday, July 26: Brewers TV; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)
Prediction
These are a pair of teams with very different trajectories since meeting in the 2018 playoffs. The Brewers have the advantage in virtually every facet, and I expect that to play out on the field; give me the Crew to sweep.
SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA - JULY 1: Charlie Barnes #57 of the Los Angeles Dodgers throws a pitch in the fourth inning during a game against the Athletics at Sutter Health Park on July 1, 2026 in Sacramento, California. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Catching up on some roster news from this week, catcher Will Smith was moved to the 60-day injured list on Tuesday, which opened up a 40-man roster spot for Charlie Barnes. That’s right, Smith and Barnes are linked yet again.
The last game Smith played for the Dodgers was June 5, with the three-time All-Star hitting .249/.338/.382 with eight home runs in 52 games and a 102 wRC+ this season. Rushing last weekend passed Smith in defensive innings and games started behind the plate this season, potentially paving the way for a Dodgers catcher besides Smith to lead in those categories for the first time since 2019.
Barnes was active for the last two games against the Phillies but did not pitch, replacing Landon Knack as the bulk arm in the bullpen after Knack pitched two innings on Monday in Philadelphia.
The Dodgers designated Barnes for assignment on July 11 to make room for activating Knack off the 60-day injured list. After clearing waivers and getting sent outright to the minors, Barnes opted for free agency, then re-signed on a minor league deal with the Dodgers on July 17.
In seven starts for Triple-A Oklahoma City this season, Barnes has a 5.65 ERA with 28 strikeouts and 12 walks in 28 2/3 innings. He hasn’t pitched in a game since that July 1 game in West Sacramento.
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - MARCH 27: President & Chief Executive Officer Larry Baer and Manager Tony Vitello #23 of the San Francisco Giants greet each other in the dugout before the game at Oracle Park on March 27, 2026 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Tony Avelar/San Francisco Giants/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Some good responses in that comments thread of last week’s post, and the bigger issue is that this miserable team has lost a lot of public trust along with all the goodwill of Buster Posey taking over Baseball Operations. But there are still the prospect huggers out there who see the Jackson Flora draft and other exciting developments in the farm as reason to focus on the positives and ignore the negatives, even if those negatives are some of the most damning in the franchise’s history: losing triple digits for the second time ever and going five years without a winning season for the first time ever.
I guess no fandom is a monolith and I can’t convince people who’ve already ignored the bad baseball of the past decade (sorry, 2021 team!) that they should have serious doubts about the quality of the franchise. So, let’s just sequalize my week-old post, given the ugly sweep in Kansas City. Just how likely are 100+ losses now?
Through 102 games, the franchise’s sole 100-loss team (1985) was 40-62. Zack & Buster’s 2026 Giants are 42-60. With 60 games left, the Giants will need to go 21-39 to avoid 100 losses. The 1985 team went 22-38 over their final 60. So, yes, these Giants would have to play worse than the worst team in Giants history to match or exceed.
Obviously, they can do it.
The trade deadline seems likely to accelerate the losing. The bullpen and defense blowing games is annoying enough, but the coaching and decision trees managing the roster today will still be in place managing the post-deadline roster, and if you thought the bullpen, defense, and coaching is bad now, it’ll only get worse when the starting pitching doesn’t even give them a chance and the lineup features even less experience and Gold Glove-caliber defense.
Previously, I’d predicted 30 more wins, which would’ve gotten them to 71-91. After a 1-5 start to the second part of the season, they’d need to go 29-31 the rest of the way. I mean, who cares about my prediction, but the notion that they could go 29-31 is absurd. 21-39 even feels like a stretch, but let’s run through this with the taste of this 1-5 road trip fresh in our mouths:
vs. Angels (3 games) — a truly horrendous team, but the Giants are just 3-6 against them the past 3 seasons; and, this series will be before the trade deadline, meaning that the few good players on that roster likely to be traded will be showcased against the Giants. Prediction: 2-1 (although, the Giants just got owned by the Royals) vs. the Brewers (3 games) — They’re really, really good. Prediction: 1-2 (I have to believe the Giants can scratch out a win at home) at San Diego (4 games) — the final series before the trade deadline and despite the Padres’ struggles (they’re 2-4 out of the break and were owned by the Royals, too!) it’s likely that they won’t be sellers. They, like the Giants, are just drawing too well. They have a new ownership group coming in, too. They’re just 3 games back of a Wild Card spot as I write this. The Padres have lost just 1 season series to the Giants this decade (2021, natch). Prediction: split? at Texas (3 games) — The Giants are bad on the road and haven’t won 4 in a row all season. Prediction: 1-2 vs. Detroit (3 games) — The Tigers handled the Giants pretty easily last year in a sweep in Detroit and while it’s true that the 2026 version has struggled a lot, it’s still the case that they’re much, much, much (much?) better than the Giants. Their lineup features three All-Stars: Dillon Dingler, Kevin McGonigle, and Riley Greene, and an enviable rotation with Tarik Skubal, Framber Valdez, Casey Mize, and even Jack Flaherty, Keider Montero, and now Troy Melton. They are 21-31 on the road this season, though. Hmm… Prediction: 1-2 vs. Houston (3 games) — A tricky team. Are they buyers or sellers? Are they a “fake” .500 team? Well, I’ll just let this decide: they’re 13-17 in interleague this season while having a -45 run differential overall. Still, they’re 11th in MLB in runs scored (4th in AL) and Giants pitching won’t get any better this year. Prediction: 1-2 vs. Colorado (3 games) — Gosh, I hope this isn’t a tough series. Prediction: 3-0 (is this where the first 4-game winning streak happens???) at Cleveland (3 games) — Patrick Bailey revenge series? Who cares, the Guardians have great pitching and they are good for a second-half run. Prediction: 0-3 at Boston (3 games) — Their long win streak will be over by this point (probably), but even in their comedown, they’ll probably still be able to get up to bash the Giants to death (metaphorically) if for no other reason than to stick it to Rafael Devers for some reason — could easily see him having a great series but with Giants pitching unable to capitalize. Prediction: 1-2 vs. Cincinnati (3 games) — This team seems to be out of it. Prediction: 2-1 vs. Arizona (4 games) — The Giants are 1-8 against the Diamondbacks this season. I would expect this series to put the team out of its misery. Prediction: 1-3 at Atlanta (1 game) — I cannot fathom the Giants sweep. Prediction: 0-1 at Pittsburgh (3 games) — Will the Pirates fade down the stretch? That’s the big question. On the other hand, they’re second in MLB in runs scored (543 to Washington’s 567), so, I think they will get a big kick out of kicking the Giants’ collective ass. Prediction: 1-2 at Mets (3 games) — This team will probably remake itself at the deadline and I wonder if they will be one of those teams that improve after retooling on the fly. Anyway, unless the Mets reacquire Jeff McNeil or Pete Alonso, I’m a bit more confident about the Giants facing the Mets. Then again, it’s a road series, and the Mets will still have Juan Soto. Prediction 1-2 vs. St. Louis (3 games) — This series will be the final leg of a 3-city, 9-game road trip for the Cardinals where the first two series are at Dodger Stadium followed by Coors Field. So, I’ll be a little bullish. Prediction: 2-1 vs. San Diego (3 games) — Let’s just keep the good vibes going. Prediction: 2-1 at St. Louis (3 games) — Of course, the Cardinals will get their revenge. Prediction: 1-2 at Dodgers (3 games) — The Giants have played the Dodgers hard, but ending the season against them has, time and again, been disastrous. Prediction: 1-2 vs. Minnesota (3 games) — Will the Twins’ surprising season continue? They’ll have just come off a 4-game series against the Angels in Anaheim, but prior to that, they’ll have run a pretty remarkable gauntlet: 6 against the White Sox, 6 against the Tigers, 3 against the Guardians, and 3 against the Yankees. That 18-game stretch might be enough to short circuit their season and set them on a course to merely play out the string against the Giants. That’s the thinking I have to have in order to make this prediction: 2-1. vs. Dodgers (3 games) — Since 2017, here is the Giants’ record versus the Dodgers in September: 11-27. For the sake of the rivalry, lets say Prediction: 1-2.
So… 26 wins? 68-94? And this is maybe still optimistic?
I just want to make it clear that I understand “It’s Baseball!” and anything can happen. Something could turn around this entire team and set them on a run that doesn’t look so bad. But we’ve been saying this for years and years. They haven’t given any reasonable person any inkling that “positive regression” or a long win streak is in the immediate future. This is a team in the midst of either an accidental reboot or a lost season that can’t really be explained or fixed. Sort of like 2021’s Wario — but this is the best case scenario going forward.
Maybe the team does need us to write them off to spark a turnaround… that would only get them into the 70-win range. That’s the thing. This is a bad Giants team with a ceiling of “not as bad as they looked for most of the season.” Like, if they wind up with, say, 74 wins, in a couple of years somebody would write, “an 88-loss season that felt like 128.” I don’t know what this era of Giants Baseball will wind up being known as, but it’ll be known for resetting franchise expectations.
Sure, they’ll end the year with the most wins in Baseball history still (around 11,670), but since 1972 (the season they traded Willie Mays), they’re pretty close to .500 (4,356-4,265), and 49% of the seasons (27 of 55) have been non-winning ones (the two .500 seasons are in this count). There have been just 49 non-winning seasons out of 144 in Giants history (34%) and 55% of them have come in the last 54 years. So, statistically, this is the franchise’s Losing Era. And despite the 3 championships, a 107-win season, the spectacle of Barry Bonds, and the beautiful ballpark, that is what it feels like.
Arizona (53-49) and St. Louis (52-49) meet for the fourth time in the past week as the two set up for a makeup game. The Diamondbacks won the previous series taking two out of three and are 4-2 overall against the Cardinals this season.
Arizona has won back-to-back games and moved to 4-2 in the second half of the year. The Diamondbacks' offense has been cooking lately with 21 runs in the last two games and 40 in the past six (5th). Arizona is hitting .290 (5th) and ranks top five in OPS, OBP, and SLG to start the second half.
St. Louis snapped a four-game losing streak with a 1-0 win against the Angels. The Cardinals are 2-4 in the second half and have scored the sixth-fewest runs (19) in that span. St. Louis has the fifth-worst batting average (.214) and the third-fewest home runs (3).
Let’s dive into the matchup and find a sweat or two.
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Game details & how to watch Diamondbacks at Cardinals
Date: Thursday, July 23, 2026
Time: 5:15 PM EST
Site: Busch Stadium
City: St. Louis, MO
Network/Streaming: MLB TV
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Odds for the Diamondbacks at the Cardinals
The latest odds as of Thursday:
Moneyline: St. Louis Cardinals (+101), Arizona Diamondbacks (-122)
The Diamondbacks’ Gabriel Moreno is hitting .302 with 78 hits, 7 home runs and 34 RBI over 258 at-bats
The Diamondbacks’ Tim Tawa is hitting .217 with 23 hits and 26 strikeouts over 106 at-bats
The Cardinals’ Jordan Walker is hitting .289 with 110 hits, 22 home runs, and 76 RBI over 381 at-bats
The Cardinals’ Nathan Church is hitting .228 with 58 hits and 56 strikeouts over 254 at-bats
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Top betting trends & insights to know ahead of Diamondbacks at Cardinals
Arizona is 56-46 ATS, ranking fifth-best
St. Louis is 57-44 ATS, ranking fourth-best
Arizona is 53-43-6 to the Under, ranking fourth-best
St. Louis is an MLB-best 55-40-6 to the Under
Arizona is 27-22 ATS on the road, ranking sixth-best
St. Louis is 29-23 ATS at home, ranking fifth-best
Expert picks & predictions for tonight’s game between the Cardinals and the Diamondbacks
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Thursday's game between the Cardinals and the Diamondbacks:
Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Diamondbacks on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Diamondbacks at -1.5.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Under on the Game Total of 7.5
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CLEVELAND, OHIO - JULY 20: Rhys Hoskins #8 of the Cleveland Guardians celebrates after hitting a solo homer during the first inning against the Minnesota Twins at Progressive Field on July 20, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Royals (43-60) open a four-game series in Motown tonight against the Tigers (48-54). Kansas City sits in last in the AL Central but they have won their last three games. Detroit is now 6.5 games behind the White Sox in the division and 4.5 back of the final Wild Card spot.
As mentioned, the Royals take the field tonight having won their last three after a sweep of San Francisco. Yesterday they rallied for a dramatic 5-4 victory. Kansas City trailed 3-0 entering the bottom of the seventh before mounting the comeback. The rally started with a double by Vinnie Pasquantino. Moments later, Salvador Perez blasted his 14th homer of the season, tying the George Brett for franchise home run record with the 317th homer of his career. After Nick Loftin drove in another run, Lane Thomas delivered the decisive blow, a two-run single that turned a 3-3 tie into a 5-3 Royals lead. Closer Steven Cruz surrendered a ninth-inning home run but recorded the final out to secure his first major league save and Kansas City's third consecutive victory.
Detroit closed its series in Chicago with a 5-1 win over the Cubs yesterday to take the series. on Wednesday. The Cubs got a first inning home run from Seiya Suzuki but that was it as Keider Montero allowed just two additional hits over 5.1 innings to secure his seventh win of the season. Spencer Torkelson and Hao-Yu Lee each went yard to provide the bulk of the offense for the Tigers. The win was Detroit’s sixth in their last ten games.
Tonight’s pitching matchup features Randy Dobnak (0-0, 1.93 ERA) for Kansas City against rookie standout Troy Melton (5-1, 1.80 ERA) for Detroit.
Veteran right-hander Randy Dobnak has appeared in three games this season, posting an impressive 1.93 ERA across 14 innings. However, he has walked eight batters while striking out seven, so command has been an issue at times. His last appearance was on July 18 against San Diego. Dobnak allowed one run over 4.1 innings walking four while striking out three. The Tigers hand the ball to one of the biggest surprises in the American League this season, Troy Melton. He takes the ball with a stellar 1.80 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and 50 strikeouts in 55 innings. In July, the 25-year-old Melton has thrown 17.1 inings and allowed one earned run.
Lets dive into tonight’s matchup and find a sweat or two.
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Game Details and How to Watch: Royals vs. Tigers
Date: Thursday, July 23, 2026
Time: 6:40PM EST
Site: Comerica Park
City: Detroit, MI
Network/Streaming: MLB.TV, Royals.TV, Tigers.TV
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The Latest Odds: Royals vs. Tigers
The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:
Moneyline: Kansas City Royals (+182), Detroit Tigers (-224)
Spread: Royals +1.5 (-111), Tigers -1.5 (-108)
Total: 8.5 runs
Starting Pitchers and their Stats: Royals vs. Tigers for July 23
Royals: Randy Dobnak Season Totals: 14.0 IP, 0-0, 1.93 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 7K, 8 BB
Salvador Perez has picked up at least one hit in 6 of his last 7 games (6-24)
Perez homered last night to tie George Brett as the Royals’ all-time HR King with 317
Carter Jensen was 1-12 in KC’s recent series against San Francisco
Vinnie Pasquantino was 3-9 against San Francisco
Kevin McGonigle is riding a 5-game hitting streak (6-19)
Dillon Dingler was 7-16 against the Cubs earlier this week
Zach McKinstry was 2-6 in the series against the Cubs earlier this week
Hao-Yu Lee has hit safely in 7 straight games (8-26)
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Top Betting Trends & Insights: Royals vs. Tigers
The Royals are 44-59 on the Run Line this season
The Tigers are 53-49 on the Run Line this season
The OVER has cashed 50 times in games involving the Royals this season (50-52-1)
The OVER has cashed 43 times in games involving the Tigers this season (43-55-4)
Expert picks & predictions: Royals vs. Tigers
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for tonight’s game between the Royals and the Tigers:
Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Tigers on the Run Line.
Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total UNDER 8.5.
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BRONX, NY - JUNE 6: Bobby Murcer of the New York Yankees meets with young Yankees fans who received bats as souvenirs of the day, prior to a game at Yankee Stadium on June 6, 1971 in the Bronx, New York. (Photo by Louis Requena/MLB via Getty Images) | MLB via Getty Images
Being a Yankees fan is in my blood. My late father Bill was a diehard Yankees; his favorite player was Mickey Mantle. There was no way his first-born and only son was not going to be a Yankees fan.
He took me to my first game 55 years ago, the anniversary of which just passed last Saturday.
It was July 18, 1971, a Bat Daydoubleheader against the Chicago White Sox on a Sunday afternoon. I remember being thrilled because the bat I got was a Bobby Murcer model – my favorite player at the time. My dad taught me how to keep score, something I still do to this day whenever I go to a game. Still have all the scorecards, too.
The Yankees swept both games of the twin bill. In the opener, they rallied for three runs in the bottom of the ninth off knuckleballer Wilbur Wood to win, 3-2. Murcer had a two-run single to tie the game and Ron Swoboda’s RBI single won it. Then in the nightcap, Mike Kekich threw a one-hitter in a 6-1 victory. The lone hit Kekich allowed was a solo fifth-inning home run to Mike Andrews. Roy White backed Kekich with a two-run home run, a double and a steal of home.
I’ve been hooked on the Yankees ever since.
Reaching 55 years from my first Yankees game got me thinking about all the ballgames I’ve attended over the years, all the moments and players I’ve been fortunate to witness.
I have seen the Yankees play at the original Yankee Stadium, the remodeled version, and the current one. I saw them play home games at Shea Stadium in 1974 and 1975. I have seen them on the road at the SkyDome in Toronto; Camden Yards in Baltimore; old RFK Stadium in Washington, D.C.; and what was once U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago.
In all, I have been to 117 Yankees games and my record is 69-48. That includes one Opening Day (2011) and four other home openers (1985, 1997, 1998, 1999).
Ten of the victories came in walk-off fashion, including:
Graig Nettles hitting a home run in the bottom of the ninth off Mickey Lolich to give the Yankees a 2-1 win over the Detroit Tigers and complete a doubleheader sweep on June 24, 1973.
Don Baylor going deep in the bottom of the ninth to beat the White Sox, 5-4, and win the home opener April 16, 1985.
Paul O’Neill and David Justice clubbing solo home runs in the bottom of the 10th inning to beat the Boston Red Sox, 4-3, on April 22, 2001. (O’Neill threw his bat in frustration, not realizing that the ball sailed out.)
Alex Rodriguez hitting a two-run home run in the bottom of the 12th inning to defeat the Atlanta Braves, 4-3, on June 28, 2006.
Starlin Castro homering in the bottom of the ninth to beat the Colorado Rockies, 9-8, on June 22, 2016.
Then there was Kerry Dineen. He only played in 16 games in his MLB career and had 12 hits and a pair of RBIs. On May 21, 1976, hours after being called up from Triple-A Syracuse, he delivered the game-winning hit in the bottom of the 12th inning to beat the Red Sox, 6-5. This came one day after the famous brawl between the teams when Lou Piniella barreled into catcher Carlton Fisk and Boston pitcher Bill Lee injured his shoulder during the fracas.
Some games were memorable because of what the opposition did.
Twice, I almost saw opposing pitchers no-hit the Yankees. On September 12, 1981, Bob Ojeda of the Red Sox didn’t allow a hit through eight innings and faced only one batter over the minimum. But Rick Cerone and Dave Winfield led off the ninth with consecutive pinch-hit doubles to break up the bid. Boston still won, 2-1.
Then September 28, 2006, Daniel Cabrera of the Baltimore Orioles came within two outs of a no-hitter, only to have Robinson Canó single to ruin it. On his next pitch, Cabrera got a game-ending double play to complete a 7-1 win.
There was the much-anticipated nationally televised pitching showdown between Pedro Martinez and Roger Clemens on Sunday night, May 28, 2000. It lived up to the hype and ended with Trot Nixon hitting a two-run home run in the top of the ninth off Clemens for a 2-0 Boston win.
Most of the memorable moments, though, were done by the Yankees.
I saw them crush the Milwaukee Brewers in the first game of a doubleheader, 19-2, to clinch the American League East Division title on September 25, 1996. I also saw Don Mattingly have his No. 23 retired prior to the game against the Montreal Expos on August 31, 1997.
I was there to see A-Rod hit his 600th career home run August 4, 2010 against the Toronto Blue Jays. Also saw him get career hit Nos. 2,998 and 2,999 against the Miami Marlins on June 18, 2015, and saw Ichiro Suzuki get his 4,000th career hit between Japan and MLB on August 21, 2013 against the Blue Jays.
On August 25, 2011, Robinson Canó, Russell Martin, and Curtis Granderson hit grand slams in a 22-9 win over the Oakland A’s – the first time a major league team hit three grand slams in the same game. What made being there more special was the fact my daughters were with me for their first game. I have been able to pass on my love for the Yankees to them, the way my dad did with me.
More recently, we were at Ben Rice’s three-home run game against the Red Sox on July 6, 2024 – coincidentally my dad’s birthday.
It has been a lot of fun going to games these past 55 years and cheering for the Yankees. Getting to cover and write about the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders now has only enhanced that fandom.
Jul 20, 2026; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; San Francisco Giants left fielder Heliot Ramos (17) celebrates while running the bases against the Kansas City Royals after hitting a solo home run in the fourth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | Denny Medley-Imagn Images
All things being equal, the team and the fanbase would most like to see the Phillies add an impact bat at the Trade Deadline.
But as always, supply and demand remain the greatest obstacle to landing an impact bat. There aren’t that many, if any, offensive stars available and the ones that are would likely require more than what the Phillies have in their war chest of prospects to offer.
With 11 days left until the Trade Deadline, I see seven clear sellers: the Mets, Giants, Rockies, Blue Jays, A’s, Royals and Angels. There are several other players not on these teams who are hitting the rumor mill, too.
Among those seven teams, here are the players who would qualify as “impact” bats, with my best guess that they could possibly be traded to the Phils in parantheses. There are other bats that will be available. Some will provide moderate upgrades and some will provide little-to-no improvement. But these are the big boys.
Heliot Ramos – Giants (65%)
The Giants have perhaps the two most intriguing and realistic players at this year’s deadline. The first of them is right-handed hitting corner outfielder Helio Ramos, who has hit nine homers with an OPS of .759 in 64 games this season. He was an All Star two years ago for the Giants when he slugged 22 homers in 121 games, and started 157 games for San Francisco last year with a .728 OPS and 21 dingers.
Ramos would help with one of the team’s biggest deficiencies — hitting left-handed pitching. This year he has a .315/.351/.556 slash line against southpaws, and for his career has posted an .857 OPS against them.
I think this is the guy they want.
Luis Arraez – Giants (40%)
Arraez is not a middle-of-the-order power bat, but he would help with one other area of extreme weakness — getting on base.
Entering their weekend series against the Yankees, the Phils’ .303 OBP is second-worst in Major League Baseball. They simply don’t get on base enough to be consistent. Arraez has a career .363 OBP and so far this season has been getting on base at a .359 clip. He’s also hitting .320, has an .805 OPS and has been worth 2.9 WAR at second base.
Adding Arraez would require the Phillies to trade one of their infielders away, most likely Bryson Stott or Alec Bohm, or move Trea Turner to the outfield. I think most Phils fans would be willing to go there.
Mike Trout – Angels (5%)
Trout is still owed a ton of money ($37 million a season through 2030), he’s an oft-injued 34-year-old, has a full no-trade clause and seems totally disinterested in leaving Los Angeles. The only way this happens is if he tells the Angels he wants to get dealt, and there are no indications he’s ready to do that.
But should that change, the Phillies should absolutely inquire what it would take to land him. His .234 batting average isn’t great, but his .388 OBP is elite, and he’s slugged 18 home runs in 84 games this year. On paper, it would make a lot of sense.
Byron Buxton – Twins (4%)
He’d be a perfect fit. Full stop. He’s got speed, power, and is a fantastic defender. He would cost a million prospects, and they would all be worth it. He’s been healthy for two years now, so the concern of him getting injured again has lessened a bit.
The problem is that he tells everyone in no uncertain terms that he is not leaving Minnesota. So the only reason I include him here is because people have been known to change their minds. So, he joins Mr. Trout in the happy-to-lose crew until they decide they’re tired of losing.
Francisco Lindor – Mets (3%)
Reports indicate that if Lindor is going to be dealt, it won’t be until the off-season. But New York should consider it now, given teams are always a little more desperate at the Trade Deadline and clubs competing for a World Series title would get an extra two months of the star shortstop.
Lindor has not had a great season, but neither has anyone else in New York. His 0.8 WAR pales in comparison to his WAR totals since joining the Mets, but he also missed about 50 games with an injury. Is that six-win player still in there? The Phillies should at least be calling to see. If he is available, Trea Turner would have to move someplace else, but whatever happens would be worth it.
Bo Bichette – Mets (1%)
It’s really hard to envision a scenario in which the Phillies trade prospect capital and take on whatever is left of Bichette’s insane $42 million contract.
Maybe they’d do it if Bichette was having a good season, but highly doubtful for a guy with a 0.3 WAR and .677 OPS this year. But, he is a potential impact bat, so he’s included here.
Hunter Goodman – Rockies (0%)
There are some solid left-handed hitters on Colorado (first baseman TJ Rumfield and outfielders Mickey Moniak and Jake McCarthy), but the National League’s best right-handed power hitter is catcher Hunter Goodman. He currently leads all NL hitters in slugging percentage (.563) and has smashed 31 home runs in just 397 PAs.
No doubt teams will be calling the Rockies about him, and it’s doubtful Colorado will deal the 26-year-old. However, one never can count out that franchise doing something stupid. I doubt the Phillies have the prospects to land him, and you’d have to figure out what to do with J.T. Realmuto, but there’s no doubt Goodman would be the most impactful bat out there. It’s just not going to happen.
Shea Langeliers – Athletics (0%)
Just like Goodman, it’s hard to envision the A’s trading away their best hitter. But this is the A’s, we’re talking about.
Langeliers started for the American League in last week’s All Star Game and is crushing the ball to the tune of an .830 OPS, a 122 OPS+ and 23 HRs. Oakland outfielders Tyler Soderstrom and Lawrence Butler have both shown promise in the past, but are not “impact” bats right now, and both hit left-handed.
It’s unlikely the Phils could meet the prospect price for Langeliers and there is, again, the issue of what to do with Realmuto. Make him baseball’s most expensive back-up?
Looking back on the 2023 NHL Draft, the Philadelphia Flyers were arguably lucky to have drafted Matvei Michkov in the first place, and in a new do-over, they are not as fortunate this time around.
The Athletic prospect expert Scott Wheeler just released his 2023 re-draft, three years on from what has shaped up to be, so far, a pretty decent class, especially at the top.
There are no real surprises to start off: Connor Bedard, Leo Carlsson, Adam Fantilli, and Will Smith each go to their respective, current teams with the first four picks.
Then the re-draft truly begins at Pick 5, where Matvei Michkov goes to the Montreal Canadiens, two spots ahead of where he originally fell to the Flyers three years ago.
"It’s easy to forget that we’re only a season removed from him having 63 points in 80 games as a rookie, the Flyers’ second-leading scorer, and the fourth-place finisher in Calder Trophy voting, but last year some of his issues caught up with him. It’s now on him to get his game right in some important areas," Wheeler said of Michkov.
"I still think he has point-per-game, first-line wing offense, but he was closer to the few names behind him here for me than the few names in front of him — and remains a complicated risk-reward slotting."
Ok, so with Michkov off the table, going where many had expected (or hoped), who do the Flyers end up drafting instead? Stylistically, this player is a direct replacement.
With the seventh overall pick in 2023, Wheeler has the Flyers drafting New York Rangers winger Gabe Perreault, who was originally drafted 23rd, with Michkov off the board.
Ironically, the Flyers had the chance to draft Perreault much later than the seventh pick a few years back, but they opted to go with defenseman Oliver Bonk with the 22nd pick instead.
Wheeler originally ranked Perreault seventh in his final rankings in 2023, and in those rankings, he was given quotes such as: “He’s likely going to be the fourth player from the national program picked because his game is believed to be less projectable. I’m less and less convinced of that," “He’s a better skater than he gets credit for," and "There might not be a player in this draft class who thinks the game offensively at his level.”
"Those are direct from my final draft ranking in 2023, and they hold true today. I don’t write a 'prospects I was right about' piece opposite my 'prospects I was wrong about' but … I’m going to be right about Perreault," Wheeler asserted. "I nailed this one, and I’m proud of it. If you watched some of his games late in the year with the Rangers, you’ll know."
Perreault, 21, played 49 games for the rival Rangers last season, scoring 12 goals, 15 assists, and 27 points with an even plus-minus rating of 0, all while recording just 10 penalty minutes and scoring at a 16.4% clip.
Purely in terms of hockey sense and the way he sees the game offensively, Perreault is up there with Michkov, and in Wheeler's do-over, the Flyers do well securing their alternative with Michkov off the board to the Canadiens.
And as for the Flyers' second first-round pick in this re-draft, Bonk does not make an appearance in the top-32 for Wheeler.
Instead, with the 22nd pick, the Flyers actually go with one of their own, drafting goalie Egor Zavragin 65 slots earlier than they had in the real thing.
Also notable: Denver Barkey moves all the way up to 31, where Colorado takes him. That would be a nightmare if it had happened in real life.
There are only 10 teams in action today, but there are still some hurlers worth putting our money on, with multiple MLB player props showing value.
Shane Bieber might get hit around, but he will have a great leash. Brandon Pfaadt doesn't miss bats and is an Under candidate, and Ian Seymour has plenty of outs for his walk prop.
These are my favorite MLB strikeout props for Thursday, July 23.
Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today
Player
Pick
Odds
Shane Bieber
Over 4.5 strikeouts
+125
Brandon Pfaadt
Under 3.5 strikeouts
-111
Ian Seymour
Over 1.5 walks allowed
+115
Strikeout prop: Shane Bieber Over 4.5 strikeouts (+125)
I have a lot of exposure to the Tampa offense today, but Shane Bieber getting extended might be the sneaky angle. His projected pitch count around 90 is already showing some value on the Over punchouts.
Bieber has been getting hit hard, but the recent strikeout numbers are encouraging with 10 Ks over his last 10+ innings.
He can still be a strikeout-per-inning pitcher when the stuff is there, and he has already reached 97 pitches in one of his five starts this season. A six-inning leash is very realistic. He still owns a 27% CSW rate over some rocky outings.
The Rays are heading home, creating a getaway-game angle that should help Bieber. He is also much tougher on left-handed hitters, and Toronto's only available lefty out of the bullpen is Brendon Little and his 17.61 ERA.
The Blue Jays also used six relievers last night, which only increases the chance Bieber gets every opportunity to work deep.
Do I think Bieber can get hit? Yes. Do I think he has enough leash to reach six innings and strike out five at plus money? Also yes.
If the stuff is there, this could cash comfortably. If he gets hit, the volume still gives him a chance. I'm playing this to +100.
Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Rays.TV, Sportsnet
Strikeout prop: Brandon Pfaadt Under 3.5 strikeouts (-111)
Brandon Pfaadt is the definition of a pitch-to-contact starter. He is averaging just half a strikeout per inning this season and rarely gets to those deep two-strike counts needed to pile up Ks.
Nick Martinez leads MLB in pitches per plate appearance among qualified starters at 3.5, but Pfaadt isn't far behind at 3.6. He is not one of the league leaders in making hitters work, and that doesn't translate into strikeouts.
The innings can be misleading because Pfaadt gets deep by letting hitters put the ball in play early, not by overpowering them. The projections show value on his Under 3.5 strikeouts, but they are based on a 91-pitch workload that feels aggressive.
Pfaadt has thrown 87, 77, and 72 pitches over his last three starts and hasn't recorded more than 16 outs in any of them. I'm playing the Under 3.5 Ks down to -120.
Time: 5:15 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Cardinals.TV, DBACKS.TV
Walks allowed prop: Ian Seymour Over 1.5 walks allowed (+115)
Ian Seymour has not gotten deep over his last two starts, throwing 61 and 78 pitches, but he has hit this Over in both of those games.
His control away from the Trop is also favorable, as his BB/9 on the road sits at 4.8 vs. 2.6 at home. That's 11 walks in 18 road innings.
Toronto might not be the best BB% team in baseball, but this offense is more than struggling and has to see pitches today vs. a struggling pitcher with control issues.
THE BAT is projecting 85 pitches and 1.74 walks, making the break-even price around -115/-120.
Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Rays.TV, Sportsnet
Josh Inglis' 2026 Transparency Record
Prop picks: 4-5, -1.23 units
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Jordan Walsh already was going to be back in Boston next season, the team had picked up his $2.4 million option, but now he is going to be a fixture on the wing there for years.
Walsh and the Celtics agreed to a three-year, $16 million extension, something first reported by NBA insider Chris Haynes and since confirmed by other reports. The first two years of this deal are fully guaranteed, with the third being a team option. This locks Walsh in with Boston for at least three more years at a very affordable price for a rotation player.
Walsh played in 68 games last season for the Celtics, averaging 5.4 points and four rebounds a game, and his 3-point shot has improved, with him knocking down 38.4% from beyond the arc last season. However, his defense was really his calling card. He is a high-level on-ball defender on the wing, which is where Joe Mazzulla leaned into him.
LOOK AT THE DEFENSE FROM JORDAN WALSH
Celtics are 8-2 with Walsh in the starting lineup and he's showing why on Prime!
Walsh is a credit to Boston's player development program. He was drafted No. 38 in the second round and traded to the Celtics a week later, and they signed him to a minimum contract and brought him along slowly (he played just nine games his first year). By last season, he had a steady role with the Celtics.
While Jaylen Brown is out the door, Celtics president Brad Stevens has been locking up a group of affordable wings who can play a role for the team. Walsh joins Ron Harper Jr. as getting a new, longer-term deal this summer, Boston still has Hugo Gonzalez on a rookie contract for three more years, and a year from now they can extend Baylor Scheierman.
Shane Bieber
Brandon Pfaadt
Ian Seymour