It’s understandable if the Mets were frustrated with Kodai Senga by the end of last season, with his slow recovery from injuries, with his need for extra rest even when healthy, with his seeming obsession over his mechanics, and with his honest-yet-eyebrow-raising admission in late September that he wasn’t in a position to help the Mets nab a Wild Card spot.
In short, to say he’s high maintenance would seem to be an understatement.
As such, the Mets have made it no secret this offseason they’re open to trading Senga, to the point where, according to The Athletic, the Japanese right-hander reached out recently to let David Stearns know he’d prefer to stay in Queens -- though a 10-team no-trade list in his contract is the only control he has over the situation.
So would the Mets benefit by moving on from Senga? I asked that question of several MLB scouts and executives this week and the consensus answer was no -- that his proven upside and relatively affordable contract make keeping him the more reasonable decision.
“He’s pitched at a high level in two different seasons,” said one scout, referring to 2023 and Senga’s pre-injury 2025. “You’d be selling low on him. You almost certainly wouldn’t get comparable value in return. He’s got the stuff to help you win a championship, so I think you have to roll the dice and hope he’s healthy when it counts most.”
That was the theme of most other responses, though a couple of people did make the case that the Mets theoretically could better spend the $30 million that Senga is owed on the remaining two years of his contract.
But even those suggestions came with disclaimers.
“If dumping his money helps them justify overpaying to keep (Edwin) Diaz or signing a top free-agent pitcher, then maybe it makes some sense,” one team exec said. “But does Steve Cohen really need to do that? If you have his financial power and you’re trying to compete with the Dodgers, you need high-end assets, and even with Senga’s injuries, I’d put him in that category.
“Now if there’s more going on behind the scenes that makes the ballclub feel he just can’t be relied on, that adds a different layer to the situation. But on the surface I can’t see how you’re a better team by trading him.”
As an aside of sorts, there was less of a consensus from the same evaluators as to how far the Mets should go to re-sign Diaz, especially after signing Devin Williams. All agreed that a Williams/Diaz combo would be a championship-worthy weapon, but there was a split on where to draw a line in negotiations for their closer, with only a couple of people willing to give him more than a four-year deal in the $20 million per year range.
“I wouldn’t go to five for $100 (million),” one exec said. “If you believe in Williams, you got a closer on a reasonable deal and you can build depth around him without that type of risky overpay (for Diaz).”
“I’d go to five (for $100 million) to build a super pen,” countered another. “I’d want the protection for Williams too. What Stearns does will probably tell you a little more about him, about how committed he is to making value judgments.”
In that sense, the decision to trade or keep Senga may be revealing as well. Remember, the Japanese star was a Billy Eppler signing, a year ahead of Stearns’ arrival, and at the time there were concerns about his elbow.
To this point there is no indication the elbow has been an issue, but Senga has been sidelined by a shoulder capsule injury, as well as in-season injuries to his calf in 2024 and hamstring in 2025 that both kept him out for extended periods, and seemed to affect him when he returned to pitching -- in the ’24 postseason and the second half last season.
Still, he was in good form last season before the hamstring injury on June 12th, pitching to a 1.39 ERA over 14 starts, averaging between five and six innings per start. Senga returned a month later and showed flashes of dominance but struggled badly at times while putting up a 6.56 ERA over eight starts, and indicating at one point that he was lacking his usual leg drive.
To his credit, Senga accepted a demotion to the minors. But with the Mets desperate for pitching in late September, he essentially opted not to try to make a start.
“You always want guys to want to take the ball,” said one exec. “But you also want guys to be honest what’s going on with them, so that’s a tough situation. If I was evaluating him for my team going forward, it would be more about the injury history and the certainty. Obviously when he’s healthy he’s a guy you want on the mound.”
With that in mind, another exec pointed out that the way the Dodgers used their pitching depth to win the championship in 2025 could serve as reason enough to keep Senga.
“They had a ton of injuries to their starting rotation,” the exec said. “Look at their innings totals during the season and you’d never believe they were the champs. But they got their top guys healthy for October and that’s how they won.”
It’s true, the Dodgers had only one starter throw more than 112 innings last season, and that was Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who totaled 173.2 innings. Tyler Glasnow threw only 90 innings, while Blake Snell threw 61, Shohei Ohtani 47 and Roki Sasaki 36.
Yet all of them played important roles in the postseason.
“You can’t plan on that,” said the exec, “but when you have the Dodgers’ depth you can manage injuries with an eye on the big picture and still have the talent to reach the post-season. I don’t know if the Mets are quite there yet but with the young pitching they used late in the season, they seem to be developing the kind of depth where it would make sense to keep Senga.”
To that point, one scout noted that for all the injuries and missed time, Senga has shown he can be tough-minded when he does pitch.
“I’ve seen him make pitches to get out of trouble a bunch of times,” the scout said. “He seems to be able to set up the forkball and command it when he really needs to. So he looks like a guy you’d want pitching big games.”
The numbers bear out that observation. For his career Senga has allowed a .170 batting average against with runners in scoring position, and in 2025 that average was just .155 -- even including his poor second half performance.
All in all, then, there is plenty of reason to believe Senga could still be a difference-maker. If the Mets don’t believe he’ll stay healthy, you can understand wanting to trade him, but with a 2026 championship as the goal, they may be better off taking another shot with him.
