Brewers lead, 1-0
First pitch: 5:00 PM EDT
TV: FS1/FOX ONE
Probable pitchers: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP (LAD); Logan Henderson, RHP (MIL)
Series tied, 0-0
First pitch: 8:00 PM EDT
TV: TBS/HBO MAX
Probable pitchers: Foster Griffin, LHP (CLE), Drew Rasmussen, RHP (TB)
The star studded pitching matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers Jacob Misiorowski and the Los Angeles Dodgers Tarik Skubal turned out to be a bit of a dud on Sunday night. Both were overpowering at points, but neither produced anything close to a dominant start. Ultimately, Skubal took a bit more damage, the Dodgers veteran bats looked overmatched at times, and the Brewers held on to a slim lead to take Game 1 of the NLCS.
They’ll be back at it tonight, while the ALCS matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Cleveland Guardians also gets underway in Tampa Bay.
The Dodgers will send their ace, RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (1-0, 1.29 ERA) against the Brewers young right-hander RHP Logan Henderson (0-0, 1.80 ERA) at 5:00 p.m. ET on FOX. It’s too early for either side to think about a short series, but the Dodgers would obviously do well to even things up before the series moves to LA.
The Guardians will go with LHP Foster Griffin (1-0, 3.38 ERA) as he takes on RHP Drew Rasmussen (1-0, 0.00 ERA), who was absolutely brilliant in his lone start against the Yankees this postseason. The Rays will be well rested, but the Guardians will hope to catch them a little flat-footed early on. The ALCS will be broadcast on TBS, with Monday night’s game at Tropicana Field set for an 8:00 p.m. ET start.
The Brewers took a low-scoring Game 1. With the pitchers going in Game 2, that’s also likely to be low-scoring.
And the ALCS begins this evening. One discussion thread for both games today.
TV: Fox-TV. Announcers: Joe Davis, John Smoltz, Ken Rosenthal and Tom Verducci.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP vs. Logan Henderson, RHP
Baseball-reference.com preview
TV: TBS. Announcers: Brian Anderson, Jeff Francoeur, Ron Darling and Lauren Shehadi.
Foster Griffin, LHP vs. Drew Rasmussen, RHP
Two games today:
Let’s talk about them.
The Florida Panthers opened their brief two-game road trip on Monday afternoon in Buffalo, but the game did not go particularly well for the Cats.
Florida fell behind four different times en route to a frustrating 5-3 defeat at KeyBank Center in Downtown Buffalo.
It took less than six minutes for the Sabres to pick up the opening goal, as Josh Doan blocked a Gustav Forsling attempted dump in from the point and quickly transitioned it into a rush chance.
Doan’s wrist shot from the bottom of the right faceoff circle beat Jacob Markstrom, who had been brilliant to that point, over the blocker to put the Sabres in front 1-0 at the 5:58 mark.
Florida’s first goal of the game came just over five minutes later and it was the result of some hard work by a pair of Panthers forward lines.
A shift that started with the Cats’ fourth line pinning the Sabres deep in their zone was kept going by the Lundell line, as Florida was able to make a change while still keeping the puck in Buffalo’s end.
Eventually, a point shot by Aaron Ekblad hit Sabres’ goalie Colton Ellis up high, and the rebound bounced to Anton Lundell at the side of the crease. Lundell swept the puck through Ellis’ five-hole, tying the game at one.
A holding penalty called on Dmitry Kulikov allowed Buffalo to re-take the lead, coming off a blast by Rasmus Dahlin. The Sabres had been just 1-for-17 on the power play previously.
Not that the Panthers have been any better.
Coming into the game Florida was just 1-for-28 when on the man advantage, but that changed after Owen Zellweger was called for tripping Sam Reinhart early in period number two.
Reinhart proved to be Johnny-on-the-spot, standing next to the goal crease and tapping home Seth Jones’ point shot that had just trickled through Ellis’ pads, tying the game at two.
Panthers tie it up on this Reinhart goal and Brady finally has his first point as a Panther 🔥🚨 pic.twitter.com/PDhPzv6pmi
— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) October 12, 2026
He wasn’t done there.
A few minutes after Ryan McLeod put Buffalo back in front 3-2 on a breakaway, Reinhart picked up his second PPG of the night, this time benefiting off a great, between-the-legs pass by Brady Tkachuk and knotting the score for a third time.
By this point of the game, both teams had replaced their starting goaltenders.
Akira Schmid came out to start the second period for Florida after Markstrom stopped nine of 11 shots during the opening frame, and Buffalo replaced Ellis with Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen after Reinhart’s first power play goal.
The third period did not go well for the visitors, as Buffalo picked up another power play goal at the 7:15 mark and then an insurance goal by Tage Thompson 6:05 later.
That 5-3 score is how the game ended, with Florida dropping its second straight game in regulation after picking up points in their first four games of the season.
Now holding a 2-2-2 record, the Panthers won’t have much time to dwell on the defeats.
They’re right back in action on Tuesday night when they face the Columbus Blue Jackets at Nationwide Arena. Puck drop is set for 6:15 p.m. as the NHL will be holding its annual Frozen Frenzy in which all 32 games play on a staggered schedule.
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Photo caption: Oct 12, 2026; Buffalo, New York, USA; Buffalo Sabres center Ryan McLeod (71) scores a goal onFloridaPanthersgoaltender Akira Schmid (40) during the second period at KeyBank Center. (Timothy T. Ludwig-Imagn Images)
After a series facing plenty of left-handers against the Braves, the Dodgers offense will see a second right-handed starter in Milwaukee. Although the scoring output was disappointing in Game 1, Dave Roberts sticks with his approach of righty-lefty throughout the lineup, but there are a couple of changes.
Tommy Edman, who was on the bench for Game 1, gets the starting nod over Kiké Hernández in the ninth spot, playing second base. This is Edman’s first start since Game 2 of the NLDS, having appeared off the bench in each of the Dodgers’ last three games. More notably, perhaps, Will Smith drops to the fifth spot in the order, with Teoscar Hernández moving up to bat third, rewarded for his two-hit performance in Game 1.
It’s been no secret that Smith has been the worst Dodgers hitter this postseason; however, his at-bats in the first game of the series provided a bit of hope that he can bounce back and be a real factor in this NLCS. The Dodgers’ starting catcher had more hard-hit balls than any other player in a 2-1 defeat—it just happened that they were all outs.
Mixing and matching late in games, expect either Josue De Paula or Kiké Hernández to be ready for an impact off the bench against a Brewers reliever, depending on which reliever is on the mound late in the game. De Paula in particular has impressed with key walks in this postseason.
Los Angeles Dodgers ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto will take the mound in a critical situation for Game 2 on Monday, Oct. 11.
It’s unlikely to faze him.
The Dodgers lost to the Milwaukee Brewers in the opening game of the National League Championship Series; falling behind two games could be a fatal blow. Delivering in high-stakes situations is one of the things that define Yamamoto's dominance.
Yamamoto, a 28-year-old righthander, started Game 2 of the 2025 NLCS against the Brewers. He pitched a complete-game, allowing one run on three hits with seven strikeouts in the Dodgers’ 2-1 victory. But what defined him took place in the 2025 World Series.
Against the Toronto Blue Jays, Yamamoto started two games and won both, allowing just two runs in 15 innings. Then he closed out Game 7, pitching 2 2/3 scoreless innings as the Dodgers won 5-4 in 11 innings and Yamamoto won the World Series MVP.
This year, in his only postseason appearance, Yamamoto allowed one run in seven innings with 10 strikeouts in the Dodgers’ 3-1 victory against the Atlanta Braves in the NLDS.
Thanks to his exceptional pitching mechanics, Yamamoto is among the league’s best pitchers as defined by pitch location and control. During the 2026 regular season, his strikeout-to-walk rate was 4.33, 11th best in the majors.
Yamamoto is dependable.
During the 2026 regular season, Yamamoto shared the league lead with 22 quality starts – pitching at least six innings and allowing three earned runs or fewer. Cristopher Sanchez of the Philadelphia Phillies also had 22 quality shares.
He'll keep hitters guessing with his wide selection of pitchers.
Yamamoto throws a filthy four-seam fastball up to 99 mph, averaging around 96 mph. He throws a nasty sinker at 95 mph. But his best pitch is a split-finger fastball that, at 91 mph, keeps batters baffled.
He can also drastically change speeds with a 77 mph curveball, along with a 95 mph sinker and an 87 mph slider.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Why Yoshinobu Yamamoto is built for Dodgers' biggest games and can save NLCS
Premier League updates from the 8pm BST kick-off
So where is our game? Coventry will want to use their wide attackers to get them up the pitch. Down their left in particular, I’d expect to see Dasilva and Mason-Clark ganging up on Miley, who isn’t a full-back, with Rudoni and Yirkenkyi making late runs to give them presence in the box. I also wonder if Cherif will look to run off Botman, who isn’t the quickest, with Thomas-Asante and Van Ewijk looking to supply him with crosses.
Email! “I say this is a perfect fixture,” writes Mary Waltz. “To get back to semi normal football. We have had a week to focus on the City problem but let’s get real. Whatever happens to them it will probably months before the lawyers get all their billable hours in and we don’t know what the final outcome will be. I for one am tired of speculating when it is pointless until the powers that be make up their minds. Let’s play ball.”
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The Atlanta Braves are not longer in contention but there is still some fun playoff baseball to watch as the Los Angeles Dodgers are the visiting team against the Milwaukee Brewers. We already saw an insanely good pitching matchup yesterday, but we get another one today with Yoshinobu Yamamoto taking on Logan Henderson.
Interestingly on paper in looks like the Dodgers have the advantage on paper, but some of the places people place their money do not agree.
More fun baseball is to follow as the Cleveland Guardians will be at the Tampa Bay Rays where Foster Griffin, in his first season back from Japan and after being traded mid-season, will be taking the mound against Drew Rasmussen. Rasmussen had a fantastic season with a 2.67 ERA over 172.0 innings pitched. Oddsmakers like the Rays in this matchup, but the Guardians are getting hot at the right time.
Follow along in the comments below, and don’t feel limited on just this subject. Want to talk about what the Braves should do in the offseason? Go for it. Will there even be a season next year? Who knows.
First pitch for the first game is at 4:00 EDT and can be seen on FOX. The second game will be at 7:00 EDT on TBS.
BUFFALO, N.Y. (AP) — The Buffalo Sabres ruled out captain Rasmus Dahlin returning after he sustained an upper-body injury in the second period against the Florida Panthers on Monday.
The Sabres did not provide any further details in making the announcement. Dahlin's final shift lasted 18 seconds and ended 3:44 into the second period during a Sabres power play.
Dahlin left the ice after going down to one knee upon taking a shot from the slot off a faceoff in the Panthers zone. He collected the rebound along the side board before turning it over, and then headed immediately to the bench.
Dahlin scored his second goal of the season on the power play 15:55 into the first period.
Meantime, Panthers starting goalie Jacob Markstrom did not return for the start of the second period. He allowed two goals on nine shots in the opening 20 minutes and was replaced by Akira Schmid. The Panthers did not have an immediate update on Markstrom's status.
Florida acquired the 36-year-old Markstrom in a trade with New Jersey to be the starter after failing to re-sign Sergei Bobrovsky, who left Florida to sign with Toronto in free agency.
___
NEW YORK — Batters have been more successful on robot umpire challenges in the playoffs than during the regular season, and teams are utilizing the Automated Ball-Strike System more overall in its postseason debut.
Seventy-one of 121 overall challenges under ABS prevailed during the 25 games of the Wild Card Series and Division Series. The 59% success rate was up from 54% during the regular season. That includes an improvement for batters to 57% (29 of 51) from 49%.
It’s not that hitters are necessarily being more conservative, either. Teams are challenging more in the postseason overall, with 4.8 per game compared to 4.3 during the regular season. Batter challenges are up to 2.04 per game from 1.96.
Teams exhaust their challenges when they are unsuccessful twice in the game, so the more times they win appeals the more opportunities they can have.
Catchers had won 60% (42 of 70) of challenges, just above their 59% during the regular season. Pitchers were 1 for 1, with Tampa Bay’s Griffin Jax making the only challenge.
“Maybe a little more cautious,” Rays catcher Liam Hicks said. “It’s more just in the back of your head, you’re like, you want to save these for a meaningful situation.”
Among the four teams advancing to the League Championship Series, Cleveland won 7 of 13, Milwaukee 8 of 16, Tampa Bay 3 of 5 (with no tries by batters) and the Dodgers 2 of 6.
Atlanta had the most challenges, winning 14 of 22 over seven games and the White Sox 12 of 31.
Among batters, Milwaukee’s Jake Bauers and Atlanta’s Austin Riley won both their challenges.
Munetaka Murakami of the Chicago White Sox went 0 for 2 and the Braves’ Ronald Acuña Jr. had the most challenges, splitting on four.
“It’s a new muscle for these guys to instinctually have, so I think if this is the route we go for the next few years guys will get more and more instinctually,” New York Yankees manager Aaron Boone said. “Some guys have been really good and really adept at it early on. Other guys have been more of a work in progress. Some guys have struggled with it.”
Braves catcher Sean Murphy was 4 for 4 and the Phillies’ J.T. Realmuto won 5 of 6. Realmuto had the first game-ending ABS challenge in postseason history in Game 2 of Philadelphia’s Wild Card Series against Atlanta.
Kyle Teel of the White Sox had the most challenges, winning 8 of 12, and the Guardians’ Patrick Bailey was second, succeeding on just 4 of 10. The Brewers’ William Contreras won 4 of 9.
“Some of the first-inning challenges, 1-0 counts, it’s like, let’s let those go and save them for when we might need them later in the game,” Realmuto said. “With that being said, we have a lot of guys that know the strike zone really well.”
Just 17 challenges were defined by Statcast as in high-leverage situations, and eight of 17 were successful.
“You’ve got to be careful trying to script it or dictate the perfect situation for it. You don’t know what it’s going to lead to, even if it’s early,” Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said. “My message has always been, the lower the leverage, the more certainty you need to have and vice versa. But at the end of the day, trust your eyes.”
Among 25 umpires who worked the first two rounds, four had perfect rates and were confirmed on all challenges. Tripp Gibson, James Hoye, Nic Lentz and Gabe Morales all were challenged twice and confirmed twice.
Lance Barrett was overturned on 10 of 12 challenges during Milwaukee’s Game 2 Division Series victory over San Diego and Adam Beck on seven of 10 during Philadelphia’s Game 2 Wild Card Series win over Atlanta.
Roberto Ortiz was overturned on 6 of 9, Jansen Visconti and Todd Tichenor on 4 of 7, Shane Livensparger on 5 of 6, Cory Blaser and Chris Guccione on 4 of 5 and Alex MacKay on 4 of 6.
MARYLAND HEIGHTS, Mo. – Dylan Peterson was stoked to get his best opportunity to try and make the St. Louis Blues roster out of training camp last month.
So when the Blues sent the 24-year-old back to Springfield of the American Hockey League to begin his third season there and not in the NHL, there was certainly some disappointment but nothing he couldn’t overcome.
A strong start earned Peterson, a third-round pick in the 2020 NHL Draft, a recall on Sunday, and the forward is poised to make his NHL debut on Tuesday when the Blues (2-2-1) begin a three-game road trip against the Ottawa Senators (4-1-0).
“So surreal,” Peterson said Monday after practice. “It hadn’t set in until I got here and put the jersey on and went out there for practice. I’ve wanted to wear the ‘Note’ for six years since I got picked. It’s a long time to wait, to work, to get here. I’m full of emotion and I’m so excited.”
Peterson skated Monday on a fourth line on right wing alongside Pius Suter in the middle and Ross Johnston on the left wing and judging by all accounts, he will be in the lineup against the Senators.
“He’s been playing well down there,” Blues coach Jim Montgomery said of Peterson. “He is your prototypical fourth line player. We’re going on the road here for three game and we think he’s going to add an edge to our game and more of a fourth-line presence for us.
“He’s got great speed, he takes puck to the net on the outside, he’s got a good release. That’s his skill. It’s not going to be in play-making type areas.”
Dylan Peterson leading the post practice stretch. Good bet he makes his NHL debut tomorrow. #stlbluespic.twitter.com/mlryfSutim
— Lou Korac (@lkorac10) October 12, 2026
Peterson has 25 goals, 22 assists in 115 regular-season games with the Thunderbirds, a mix of speed and physicality in his tool shed. But no offense to some of the players that have been put on the fourth line, but Peterson brings more of what’s needed there, which includes more of a chip-and-chase game, something Montgomery wants to see.
“That’s just understanding your role,” Montgomery said. “It’s not an easy game to always chip-and-chase, but it’s always needed.
“If you look at the good fourth lines in the history of this game that give a team an identity, we had one two years ago where (Alexey) Toropchenko, (Radek) Faksa and (Nathan) Walker knew exactly what they were and they played north and it just brought momentum to us every shift.”
Peterson, who played four years at the prestigious Boston University from 2020-24, has put in a lot of work and waited an awfully long time to get his moment, which it looks like is here.
“Worth it. It’s been worth it, every second,” Peterson said. “Playing in the American (Hockey) League the last two years, it’s not an easy league to play in, but I’ve learned a lot, grown a lot. I put a lot of work in. To see it come together like this has been very rewarding.
“As a player and person, I’ve developed a lot. On the ice I’ve learned how to manage the game, stand up for my teammates, stick up for myself. So with all those things, they said go back down there, put your head down and go to work and that’s what I did and it didn’t take too long (to get back to the NHL). I’m very grateful and I’m very blessed.”
A Roseville, Calif. native, Peterson will be represented by a number of family and friends, including his parents Vlaine and Angela along with sisters Justine, Cassandra and Tessa.
“We just played Laval (Saturday night) and a couple minutes after the game, ‘Otter’ came and grabbed me, pulled me in his office and told me. It was a really special moment,” said Peterson, who also fought in the game Saturday. “… I’ve got a lot of family. I played in Ottawa quite a bit growing up. It’s a lot of family and friends and it’s just going to be really special to share that with them.”
TWICE IS NICE🥊 pic.twitter.com/gW21MYzRP5
— Springfield Thunderbirds (@ThunderbirdsAHL) October 10, 2026
And should Peterson need some teammate guidance, there are plenty to keep him guarded.
“He looked good at camp. He earned the call-up,” Johnston said of Peterson. “He did everything he could. He fought, he finished checks. He’s deserving everything he gets here and hopefully he gets a crack at it tomorrow. He plays straightforward, physical and if we’re together, it should be a fun night.
“At the end of the day, it’s your first NHL game. No matter what I say, you’re still going to be nervous, and you’re still going to live off all the adrenaline. You’ve kind of just got to let him figure it out, let him ride the wave and enjoy the experience. There’s no sense in filling him with a whole bunch of information and so on. It only happens once and it only happens once for him and his family. I’m here if he needs anything; I already told him that, but enjoy the whole process. It goes by fast.”
St. Louis Blues Prospect Report (Oct. 11): Throw Those Hats For Maddox Dagenais; Aleksanteri Kaskimaki Continues to Press For His Opportunity2026 first-round pick nets hat trick for Quebec; after impressing in NHL training camp, Springfield forward keeps pushing to get his chance with Blues
Blue Note+ To Simulcast 10 Games Over-The-Air Exclusively On Gray Media’s First Alert ABC During 2026-27 SeasonGray’s newly acquired ABC affiliate (ABC 32) in St. Louis and affiliates in 10 other markets will air Blues games on select Thursday's throughout the season beginning Oct. 22
Instant Analysis: Blues Rally For Much-Needed Win, 5-3 Over Blue JacketsSloppy first period saw two-goal deficit; Johnston fight with Olivier seemed to spark home side; top line gets on track; Berggren scores GWG, continues to fit in with McTavish, McMichael
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The Senators will look to continue their strong start to the 2026-27 NHL season when they visit the New Jersey Devils at Prudential Center on Monday night.
The Senators (4-1-0) have collected eight of a possible 10 points through their first five games, despite dealing with key injuries to Jake Sanderson, William Eklund, and Artem Zub.
New Jersey (2-2-0), meanwhile, is coming off a 4-1 victory over the Vancouver Canucks on Saturday night.
Monday's game is scheduled for 7 p.m., and much to the chagrin of a lot of Sens fans who don't have the channel, the game will only be available in English on Sportsnet+.
Compounding the frustration for some fans was the fact that Thursday's broadcast of the Sens' home opener was blacked out for them. As they turned on the game against the Flyers, some were greeted by the "not available in your region" message despite the fact they live in Ottawa.
Blacking out Sens games on TSN 5 to a lot of homes that should have access has been an issue for Bell Media for multiple years now.
Recent Performances
The Sens' most recent outing wasn't a textbook performance, but they still found a way to nab two more points in Saturday's 3-2 shootout victory over the Nashville Predators.
The Senators went more than 22 minutes without registering a shot on goal and trailed 2-0 before Tim Stützle got them on the board with a power-play goal. Drake Batherson then tied the game with just 1:23 remaining in regulation, scoring with Linus Ullmark on the bench for an extra attacker.
Stützle assisted on the equalizer and scored in the shootout, while Shane Pinto supplied the deciding shootout goal. He's been the Sens' most productive player so far, putting up four goals and eight points through five games.
Ullmark has been a major factor in the Sens' defensive success. He has won all four of his decisions and enters Monday with a league-leading .942 save percentage.
The Devils You Know
Unlike the Senators, who are 3 for 24 on the power play, the Devils got their going with three power play goals in Saturday's 4-1 win over Vancouver. Nico Hischier scored twice with the man advantage, including the 200th goal of his NHL career.
Jesper Bratt and Jesper Boqvist also scored for New Jersey, while goaltender Jake Allen stopped 20 of 21 shots in his 500th NHL game.
The Devils had lost their previous two games, 6-0 to the New York Islanders and a 5-3 loss to Utah.
Injury Updates
Defenceman Jake Sanderson missed much of preseason with a nagging injury, and has been shut down completely since suffering a lower body injury nine days ago in the season opener in Toronto. The previous Saturday, Sanderson was also pulled from the preseason finale, so the club is going to be extra cautious this time.
William Eklund is expected to miss an extended period after suffering an ankle injury against Philadelphia on Thursday.
Andre Burakovsky returned to the lineup against Nashville after missing the first four games of the season.
The Senators have also been playing without defenceman Artem Zub, who has yet to make his season debut. Zub is skating in a regular jersey, but since he also suffered a setback in preseason, there will be an abundance of caution there as well.
For the Devils, former Senator Connor Brown has an injury that's listed as a day-to-day thing. Nick Bjugstad has been placed n LTIR with a pectoral injury. And Seamus Casey just had knee surgery and will be out 6-8 weeks.
Lineups
Sens head coach Travis Green has given Fabian Zetterlund a long, early season look at top six duty, but with 0 goals and 2 assists in 5 games, he's going to suit up on the fourth line on Monday night.
Warren Foegele takes his spot on the top two lines on Monday, skating with Drake Batherson and Tim Stutzle. Andre Burakovsky, who made his season debut on Saturday, will play with Dylan Cozens and Ridly Greig.
The team has Giroux-Pinto-Amadio listed as the third line, probably out of force of habit, but it's clearly ahead of the Cozens line by a long shot, whether you're measuring by offensive production or two-way play.
With Cam Crotty moving to injured reserve following what the club described as an illness, Hoyt Stanley remains in the lineup. Jorian Donovan was called up on Saturday to act as the seventh D.
Linus Ullmark, riding a perfect 4-0 start, is expected to start in goal against Nico Daws for Jersey. That means Sam Ersson will likely start on Tuesday back in Ottawa.
Past And Present
New Jersey won two of the three meetings between the clubs (2-1-0) during the 2025-26 regular season. Monday's game will be the first of three again this season. They will meet again on December 3 in Ottawa and March 2 in New Jersey.
Both teams will play two games in he next two nights with travel in between.
The Senators will return home to face the St. Louis Blues on Tuesday at 7:30 p.m., while the Devils travel to Detroit to face the Red Wings.
The Sens' challenge is to maintain their winning ways and keep banking points, while dealing with injuries and being swamped with a busy early-season schedule.
Game Info
By Steve Warne
The Hockey News Ottawa
On the evening of October 5th, the White Sox were riding high. After enduring three consecutive 1oo-loss seasons, their revamped roster had won their first four playoff games, sweeping the Astros in the Wild Card round and taking the first two from their division rivals in Cleveland. With just one more win in the next three games against the Guardians, they’d be playing for the pennant for the first time since they won it all in 2005.
Alas, just a few days later, the White Sox are left to watch the rest of the playoffs from the sidelines, wondering how it all went so wrong, so fast. Such is the nature of October baseball. With the upstart Pale Hose and underachieving Yankees pushed aside, the ALCS will feature two teams with miniscule payrolls but remarkably consistent performance: the Guardians and the Rays. The two teams’ similarity of approach leads to an intriguing matchup that may well be decided at the margins as Cleveland targets its first championship since 1948 and Tampa Bay eyes its first in franchise history.
Let’s start with the team that will be painfully familiar to Yankees fans. A benefit of their sweep of New York is that the Rays will be able to line up their rotation on plenty of rest. That means Drew Rasmussen in Game 1. Rasmussen ate the Yankees’ lunch in the ALDS, no-hitting them for 7.2 innings and allowing just the botched Austin Wells extra-base knock across eight innings in one of the most dominant playoff performances in recent memory.
If they take a similar tack to what they did in the last round (and why wouldn’t they?) that would mean Freddy Peralta and Nick Martinez would follow. That trio of veteran starters headlined a staff that held New York to five runs in three games, with All-Star closer Bryan Baker earning all three saves while allowing just a single baserunner. Lefty Ian Seymour could be in the mix as well as the fourth starter, or potentially getting the ball instead of Martinez for Game 3 in Cleveland.
Tampa’s lineup is led by Yandy Díaz, Junior Caminero, and Jonathan Aranda. Aranda was the best of the bunch in the DS, hitting .333 with a homer. Díaz, who led the AL in hits, and Caminero, who just hit 40 home runs for the second straight year, loom large as well. The team’s position players also trade on their gloves, playing mostly clean baseball last round in contrast with the Yankees’ defensive unraveling. Their leader on that side of the ball of Taylor Walls, who brings almost nothing with the bat but led all of baseball with 3.0 dWAR at shortstop.
Like the Rays with Rasmussen, the Guardians have a true ace of their own in Parker Messick. Messick exploded onto the scene in his first full season, pitching to a 2.56 ERA while punching out more than a batter per inning. Behind him is Gavin Williams, who led the league with 248 strikeouts and fanned 23 White Sox across two starts in the ALDS.
Just as vitally, Cleveland features one of the game’s most dominant closers, Cade Smith. Smith just recorded his second sub-2.oo ERA season in his three-year career while leading all of baseball with 41 saves.
The Guardians have less to hang their hat on offensively. While both they and the Rays were top-five in the AL in runs allowed, Tampa scored 58 more runs than Cleveland, a huge factor in their winning 13 more games. The Guardians, never an offensive juggernaut in recent years, was particularly hamstrung as their superstar, José Ramírez, had a massive down year. He played like a man reborn in the ALDS, though, posting a 1.187 OPS with two homers, a major factor in their ultimate victory.
Throughout the season, the team’s best hitter has been relative newcomer Chase DeLauter, who slashed a strong .287/.363/.457 in 133 games. Fellow rookie Travis Bazzana was named an All-Star at second base, posting a 110 OPS+ with 22 doubles and 15 homers in 517 trips to the plate. Elsewhere, there are notable holes; first baseman Kyle Manzardo took a step back in his second season and Cleveland struggled to find production at DH, with midseason acquisition Jo Adell settling into the role after Rhys Hoskins was unable to regain his previous form.
On paper, the edge goes to Tampa Bay in all three facets of the game. But underestimate Cleveland at your own peril. Since Terry Francona took over as skipper in 2013, the Guardians have made the playoffs in 9 of 14 seasons, including in each of Stephen Vogt’s three years at the helm. This is their second ALCS appearance under Vogt, and they could give Tampa Bay a bigger fight than they offered the Yankees in 2024. Both of these teams have a knack for overperforming expectations, making this a strength-on-strength matchup worth watching.
We have two games today.
Dodgers @ Brewers at 3:00 5:00 Eastern. Stupid time zones.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (14-9, 2.53) vs. Logan Henderson (11-3, 2.47).
Go Brewers.
Last night’s game was great. Very enjoyable baseball, with the right team winning. I’m going to miss the start of this one but will see most of it.
Guardians @ Rays at 8:00 Eastern.
Foster Griffin (15-6, 3.60) vs Drew Rasmussen (18-5, 2.67).
Go baseball.