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The San Diego Padres haven’t won two consecutive series since April. They finally did so on Sunday against the Baltimore Orioles. After besting the Cincinnati Reds in a rubber match last week, they did the same against the O’s in the rubber match Sunday afternoon. They did so on the backs of some great pitching alongside some even better offense.

The Friars put up 17 runs in the series, including a nine-run romp of Baltimore in Game 2. They haven’t scored that many runs since they swept the Seattle Mariners in May. San Diego needs to ride that momentum into their series against a recently struggling St. Louis Cardinals ballclub.

Taking the mound

Dustin May (STL) v. Lucas Giolito (SD)

May has been off to a solid season with the Cards. He’s pitched to a 4.21 ERA through 72 2/3 innings. That was due to a difficult stretch to start the year, but he’s turned things around lately. May boasts a 3.43 ERA in his last seven starts.

He pitched well against the Friars last time they faced St. Louis. May pitched six innings but surrendered three runs (two earned) and failed to record a win for the Cards. He’ll look to improve this time around against San Diego.

Giolito has struggled with consistency in his Padres tenure thus far. He owns a 4.35 ERA through 20 2/3 innings pitched. His last few starts have been better, surrendering just three runs in his last 8 innings. Hoping to turn that around, the Friars will be using an opener for him today.

The right-hander has struggled with fastball command, but has looked better. Hopefully, Giolito can return to the form he had in his first two starts with the club (3 ER, 10.0 IP). If he can, the Padres should easily take Game 1 over St. Louis.

Batter up!

The sample size is getting bigger and bigger. Samad Taylor has been fantastic for the Friars. He’s batting .357 with a .919 OPS and went 5-for-13 with his first MLB home run in the series against Baltimore.

1. Fernando Tatis Jr., 2B
2. Jackson Merrill, CF
3. Manny Machado, 3B
4. Xander Bogaerts, SS
5. Gavin Sheets, 1B
6. Samad Taylor, LF
7. Will Wagner, DH
8. Jase Bowen, RF
9. Rodolfo Durán, C

The star of the rubber match was Durán, who will be shouldering the catching weight with Freddy Fermin hitting the 7-day IL on concussion protocol. Durán slugged two homers in the last two games. Padres catchers have now combined for five home runs in the last week.

Relief corps

San Diego exhausted the majority of their high leverage relievers on Sunday afternoon. Bradgley Rodriguez, Jason Adam, Adrian Morejon and Mason Miller covered the final four innings of the game after Walker Buehler covered the first five and allowed just one run.

That will leave the Padres with options, though none of them have been fantastic. Ron Marinaccio, Yuki Matsui, David Morgan and Wandy Peralta will each be available in Game 1 against the Cards.

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Happy Monday one and all.

The Arizona Cardinals are on a slight break before training camp picks up in July, and the Arizona Cardinals get a couple days extra of work since they are part of the Hall of Fame Game this year in the preseason.

Now the question that is outstanding for the Arizona Cardinals, what is happening with Jacoby Brissett?

We know he has held out all of voluntary OTA’s and held-in during mandatory minicamp, meaning he was there and did nothing, while he waits for a new contract that pays him as the starter.

While the Cardinals have not publicly said he is the starter, it was reported by Josh Weinfuss and later John Gambadoro that the Cardinals are going with Brissett.

So, we asked, would how much would you change things contract wise for Brissett? The results really surprised me:

Fans are fine giving Brissett a slight bump, raise him up to $10 million(ish) and guarantee it, and let’s move foward.

I actually am shocked that fans would only want to slightly bump or keep Brissett at the same salary, but it makes sense.

He was given an opportunity and had a modicum of success statistically, but was also the quarterback of a team that went 1-11 with him starting and lost nine straight games.

Right now, our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook have the odds of Brissett starting game one at -350, with Gardner Minshew at +420 and Carson Beck at +700. The Cardinals are not favored in a single game this season either. What is that worth

After getting swept to open the month, it’s been smooth sailing for the Nationals as we hit the halfway mark in June. They won their last 2 games against the Seattle Mariners for a come-from-behind series victory, making that their 3rd in a row. With the gritty Tampa Bay Rays and division rival Philadelphia Phillies on the horizon, they get a chance to extend their winning streak against a Royals team that has been far from elite this season.

Kansas City sits firmly in last place in the AL Central, with a record of just 29-43. Their offense is in the bottom 10 of almost every statistical category, despite the MVP-level season that shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. has put together thus far. They have lost their last 2 series, and now head into Washington to attempt to right the ship.

Game 1 – Monday 6:45 PM EST

WSH: LHP Andrew Alvarez (1-0, 3.70 ERA)

KCR: RHP Mitch Spence (0-0, 13.50 ERA)

Alvarez’s two starts as a swingman have been about as advertised, going less than 5.0 innings both times out but limiting opposing offenses to 2 or fewer runs. The lefty is a true “get it done” pitcher, allowing a decent amount of baserunners but having enough putaway stuff to work his way out of jams. Commanding the strike zone remains a work in progress, although he has racked up just over 9 strikeouts per 9 innings, and the coaching staff will definitely be careful with him against the Royals’ top bats.

The right-hander is on his 3rd team in 3 MLB seasons, and his lone appearance with Kansas City was back in mid-April. Spence was hit for 6 runs across 4.0 innings in said outing, and his AAA ERA sat above 6.50 over the course of 10 starts. The Nats have a chance to absolutely feast on a pitcher the Royals are essentially forced to start, and it would be great to see the lineup get off to another hot start.

Game 2 – Tuesday 6:45 PM EST

WSH: LHP Foster Griffin (7-2, 3.46 ERA)

KCR: RHP Michael Wacha (4-5, 3.58 ERA)

The days of calling Griffin a reclamation project have come and gone, and he remains the steadiest pitcher in the Washington rotation entering his 15th start. He battled through another 6.0 strong innings the last time through the rotation, surrendering a single run to the San Francisco Giants and lowering his season ERA to 3.46. It’s hard not to have utmost confidence in the 30-year-old every time he takes the mound, and he faces another stable veteran on Tuesday night.

Wacha is seemingly entering “ageless wonder” territory and has been a lock for an ERA in the mid-3.00s every year since 2021. The Nats are seeing him amidst a rough patch, though, with his ERA rising almost a full point in his last 3 starts, giving up 14 runs in 17.2 innings. His offspeed pitches are where hitters have found the most success against him, making the plan for success fairly clear.

Game 3 – Wednesday 1:05 PM EST

WSH: RHP Zack Littell (6-5, 5.32 ERA)

KCR: RHP Luinder Avila (1-3, 6.19 ERA)

Littell had been cruising in his recent starts, but that run of dominance came to a screeching halt against the Seattle Mariners on June 12th. He was tagged for 5 runs over just 1.2 innings, with the long ball getting him once and forcing him out of the game abruptly. There is something to be said about how he had to deal with an impromptu rain delay before his start, making this next appearance an important watch for Nats coaches and fans alike.

The story for Avila’s 2026 campaign is nearly identical to Littell’s, despite the 6-year age difference. His sophomore season got off to a dreadful start out of the bullpen, but he put together a fine month of May. He was moved to the rotation and had 2 impressive starts to begin June, but got absolutely shelled by the Astros for 8 runs, failing to make it out of the 1st inning. This game will come down to whichever starter can rebound better, and whether or not Littell’s experience can outlast Avila’s youthful energy.

The Nationals won their first championship in 2019, and after stumbling to a losing record in 2020, they began rebuilding. They traded Trea Turner and Max Scherzer in 2021, and Juan Soto in 2022. That brought several years of bad baseball, as the team struggled to develop good players. But the prospects from those trades are starting to bear fruit – three of them are in the regular starting lineup for this year’s Nationals – and the team is enjoying a winning season.

Kansas City Royals (29-43) vs. Washington Nationals (37-35) at Nationals Park, Washington, DC

Royals: 4.00 runs scored/game (29th in MLB), 4.68 runs allowed/game (20th)

Nationals: 5.44 runs scored/game (1st), 5.26 runs allowed/game (29th)

The Nationals have scored the most runs in baseball, with three games this month where they have scored 10+ runs. Only five teams have hit more home runs, and only the Marlins have stolen more bases. James Wood broke through last year with a 31-home run season and an All-Star appearances. He leads the National League in runs scored (66) and walks (58) this year, and is tied for fourth in MLB in home runs (20). Daylen Lile is hitting .333/.400/.511 in 12 games this month. Catcher Keibert Ruiz is hitting .366/.386/.648 at home. CJ Abrams is hitting .297/.395/.555 against lefties.

Jacob Young is fifth in baseball in taking called strikes at 22.8 percent. Nasim Nuñez leads the National League with 25 steals and has only been caught three times. The Nats lead all of baseball in most outs on the bases. Young grades as one of the best defenders in baseball, by Outs Above Average, while Abrams rates as one of the worst.

The Royals have announced Mitch Spence will be called up to start Monday to replace Seth Lugo, who is on the 7-day IL with a concussion. He’ll face Andrew Alvarez, who has made seven career MLB starts. Alvarez walked five, but allowed just two runs in four innings in his last start against the Giants. He had a 5.29 ERA in seven starts for Triple-A Rochester. He throws mostly breaking balls and has a 54 percent groundball rate.

Former Royals first round pick Foster Griffin went to Japan and has returned to become an effective MLB starter. He has given up just five runs in 22 innings (2.05) over his last four starts. Lefties are hitting .172/.250/.322 against him. He throws his cutter 30 percent of the time, and gets by with a 91 mph fastball, but his sweeper has a 32.5 percent whiff rate.

Zack Littell had a 3.3 rWAR season last year, but found few free agent offers and signed with the Nationals. He retired just 5 of the 10 hitters he faced in his last start, giving up five runs, including a home run to the Mariners. Opponents are hitting .315 against his 91 mph fastball, but he throws his slider 28.6 percent of the time.

Nationals relievers have a 4.69 ERA with the lowest strikeout rate of any bullpen. Gus Varland and Clayton Beeter have each gotten closing duties this year. Nationals relievers allow 43 percent of inherited runners to score, most in baseball. Former Royals reliever Richard Lovelady has a reverse split, with lefties hitting .333/.433/.431 against him.

The National score a lot of runs, but allow a lot of runs. The Royals have won their last two series against the Nationals, including a sweep in DC in 2024. With a decimated roster, they’ll need to raise their game against an improved Nats squad this week.

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We nearly swept on Friday, so let's try that again with today's MLB home run predictions. 

I'm backing Junior Caminero, Juan Soto, and Ian Happ to go deep in my favorite MLB player props on Monday, June 15. 

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Junior Caminero	+241
Juan Soto	+294
Ian Happ	+344
💲Today's HR parlay	+5865

Home run pick: Junior Caminero (+241)

I am in love with Tampa Bay Rays slugger Junior Caminero to leave the yard this evening. The budding star draws Los Angeles Dodgers left-hander Eric Lauer, who enters today with one of the worst pitcher ratings on the slate. He also grades poorly in matchup ISO, strikeout rate, and ground ball rate.

Lauer has been struggling against right-handed hitters at home this season, allowing a 71% elevation rate. Overall, right-handed bats have posted a .504 xSLG and .349 xwOBA against him, while also producing a 12% barrel rate against the lefty. In addition, 54% of Lauer’s pitch mix is valued below league average, per FanGraphs. Caminero also brings the highest arsenal coverage in this matchup, covering 72.5% of Lauer’s pitch mix.

On top of that, over his last 30 plate appearances against southpaws, Caminero is hitting .304 with a .902 OPS, while generating nearly 60% hard contact and a 12% barrel rate in that span.

• Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ESPN

Home run pick: Juan Soto (+294)

New York Mets slugger Juan Soto has finally snapped out of that cold streak he was dealing with over the last few weeks, and I think it is time we can trust him again. 

In his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, he owns an .868 OPS, with 59% hard contact and a 9.1% barrel rate. Soto also carries the highest arsenal coverage among elite-rated bats this evening, covering 99.3% of Cincinnati Reds starter Chase Burns’ pitch mix.

Burns has been allowing a ton of elevation to left-handed hitters this season. At home, those hitters have been elevating the ball nearly 70% of the time. Over his last 60 lefties faced, he has allowed a 12.9% barrel rate and a 70.9% elevation rate, while also carrying a .347 xBA and .679 xSLG against.

With the cold stretch seemingly behind him, this looks like a spot where Soto can do damage tonight in Great American Small Park.

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CINR, SNY

Home run pick: Ian Happ (+344)

Colorado Rockies right-hander Michael Lorenzen has been getting tormented by left-handed hitters this season, especially on the road. In that split, they are batting .418 with a .716 SLG and a .499 wOBA. On top of that, they are producing 45.5% hard contact and nearly a 70% fly ball rate.

I think it is a must that we back Chicago Cubs outfielder Ian Happ to go yard this evening. Why Happ? Not only does he have an elite rating in this matchup over on Batters-Box, but he also owns the highest arsenal coverage with an elite rating.

He is batting .296 with a 1.054 OPS and .704 SLG, while posting 47.5% hard contact and a 10% barrel rate over his last 60 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.

With Happ sitting at 76.3% arsenal coverage against a pitcher with every single pitch in his mix graded below average, he looks like a must-back to leave the yard this evening on the North Side.

• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Marquee, COLR

Today’s HR parlay

Junior Caminero	Bet Now +5865
Juan Soto
Ian Happ

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The Mets are planning to place Christian Scott on the injured list, according to Will Sammon of the Athletic. Scott’s previous start against the Cardinals was pushed back a day. Jon Heyman adds that he’s heard that Scott has a hip issue that does not seem to be a major setback for Scott, who is returning this year after Tommy John surgery.

Removing Scott from the rotation, though, is yet another blow to the already-fragile group. Tobias Myers was already recalled on Sunday evening to serve as a starter (more likely an opener) for tonight’s game, but the Mets had already been relying more and more on bullpen games due to injury and performance problems.

After losing Clay Holmes to a fractured fibula and Kodai Senga to back and nerve issues, they have been forced to rely on David Peterson for more innings than seems advisable at this point. While Sean Manaea has started to find his best self, losing Scott reduces the starting rotation to two additional pitchers beyond Manaea: Nolan McLean and Freddy Peralta. With luck, Senga will return soon from his rehab assignment.

This season, Scott has posted a 3.10 ERA in nine games started and 40.2 innings pitched. He has been reliable arm for the Mets in the majority of his starts. In his last start against the Cardinals on June 11, he allowed four runs (three home runs) off seven hits, walked one, and struck out six.

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Let's kick off a new week with a collection of MLB picks from our team of baseball experts.

Our headline attraction involves getting the Tampa Bay Rays at +156 to win straight up against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Polymarket.

With Nick Martinez on the bump, you might think L.A. has the edge. But dig a little deeper, and you'll see that's not necessarily the case on Monday, June 15.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Jon Metler: TB ML	+156
Neil Parker: CIN ML	-133
Joe Osborne: LAA ML	+117

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Jon Metler's expert pick: Rays moneyline

Price: 39¢ (+156) at Polymarket

The Tampa Bay Rays are trading at 39 cents on the moneyline, and that's simply too big a number. I make them closer to 45-cent underdogs in this matchup.

At first glance, Nick Martinez appears to be in a difficult spot against a Los Angeles Dodgers lineup loaded with left-handed hitters. However, his elite circle changeup is built to combat left-handed bats and negate a significant on-paper platoon advantage. 

The pitch currently carries a +9 run value and features a sharp fade down and away from lefties, making it difficult for hitters to pull the ball with authority. That movement helps suppress power, generate weak contact, and neutralize one of the Dodgers' biggest strengths.

Because Martinez has the perfect weapon to attack this type of lineup, I believe this matchup is much closer than the market suggests, making the Rays a valuable underdog at the current price.

• Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
• How to watch: ESPN

Neil Parker's expert pick: Reds moneyline

Price: 57¢ (-133) at Polymarket

There’s a sizable pitching edge for the Cincinnati Reds tonight, with Chase Burns establishing himself as an elite righty and sporting a tidy 2.95 xERA and 3.21 xFIP across 13 starts.

He’s held opposing hitters to the fifth-lowest squared-up swing rate among qualified starting pitchers, and the New York Mets rank 28th in wOBA against righties for the season.

Of course, New York is sending Tobias Myers to the bump for just his third start of the year after primarily working as a reliever, so the Mets will rely on a bullpen that’s been tasked with 58 1/3 innings over the past six days.

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• How to watch: SNY, Reds.TV

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Angels moneyline

Price: 46¢ (+117) at Polymarket

The Los Angeles Angels look like a rare live road underdog in this matchup.

Walbert Urena has been outstanding to begin his career, allowing one earned run or fewer in six of his last eight starts since the beginning of May. That sets up well against an Arizona Diamondbacks lineup that has struggled versus right-handed pitching lately, ranking near the bottom of the league in OPS over the last two weeks.

The Angels are in much better form offensively and should capitalize against Ryne Nelson, who owns a 5.19 ERA and is coming off a pathetic seven-earned-run outing against Miami.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: ABTV, Diamondbacks.TV

More MLB best bets for today

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Looking to start the week with a winner?

Tonight's MLB player props feature a pair of hitters in favorable matchups and one of baseball's premier strikeout artists at plus money.

From a high-upside K prop to two bats poised to make an impact, here are my favorite MLB picks for Monday, June 15.

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Zack Wheeler	Over 6.5 Strikeouts	+109
Juan Soto	Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI	-115
Junior Caminero	Over 1.5 Total Bases	-113

Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+109)

It has been a minute since a strikeout prop has grabbed my attention enough to back it, but Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Zack Wheeler finds himself in a great spot to shove against a struggling Miami Marlins lineup that punched out 10 times on Sunday. Some may view this as a clear bounce back spot for Miami, but I see plenty of reasons to expect another swing-happy performance.

For starters, five Marlins hitters own a strikeout rate of at least 27.9% on the road this season, with four of those bats sitting north of 30.6%. Wheeler's trends are just as enticing. According to Batters-Box, he has recorded 7+ strikeouts in 68.75% of his 32 elite-rated matchups. When carrying an elite strikeout rating, that number jumps to 76% across a 25-game sample.

At home this season, Wheeler owns a 26.6% strikeout rate and a 36.1% chase rate outside the zone. At plus money, this is worth a play. I would take it down to even money, but do not pay juice for it.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCSP, MIAM

Juan Soto Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI (-115)

An extremely tough price to pass up for one of the most dangerous bats in baseball, a hitter who is always on base, always a threat to score, and always a threat to collect a hit. New York Mets star Juan Soto to go over 1.5 HRR at -115 is a steal in my opinion.

Especially when he clears this prop nearly 60% of the time when sporting an elite rating. That comes across a 220 elite rating sample size. Soto was in a bit of a slump over the last two weeks, but has since turned it around. In his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, he owns an .868 OPS with a 23.3% walk rate, 59% hard contact, and a 9.1% barrel rate. Not to mention, he has a 99.3% arsenal coverage against Cincinnati Reds starter Chase Burns.

Burns has been allowing a ton of elevation to left-handed hitters this season. At home, those hitters have been elevating the ball nearly 70% of the time. Over his last 60 lefties faced, he has allowed a 12.9% barrel rate and a 70.9% elevation rate, while also carrying a .347 xBA and .679 xSLG against.

Burns does not walk a lot of lefties, but he also is not facing Soto-level hitters every day. I prefer the built-in safety of the HRR prop over the bases market here. Comfortable taking this up to -130.

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CINR, SNY

Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Total Bases (-113)

The very first prop I locked in today was for Tampa Bay Rays slugger Junior Caminero to go over 1.5 total bases, as he draws Los Angeles Dodgers left hander Eric Lauer, who enters today with one of the worst pitcher ratings on the slate. He also grades poorly in matchup ISO, strikeout rate, and ground ball rate.

Lauer has been struggling against right handed hitters at home this season, allowing a 71% elevation rate. Overall, right handed bats have posted a .504 xSLG and .349 xwOBA against him, while also producing a 12% barrel rate against the southpaw. In addition to that, 54% of Lauer's pitch mix is valued below league average, per FanGraphs. 

Caminero has been handling left handed pitching well this season, hitting .271 with a .457 SLG and .871 OPS. Over his last 30 plate appearances, he is hitting .304 with a .902 OPS, while generating nearly 60% hard contact and a 12% barrel rate in that span.

I am not the biggest fan of paying juice for bases props, but I would take this down to minus 120 at the most.

• Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ESPN

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

It’s going to be 97 degrees where I live on Wednesday. The dog days of summer are officially here.

In the world of baseball, transaction season heats up with the weather. Such is the nature of establishing a trade deadline around the end of July – this season it’s on August 3rd – as teams become forced to classify the first 100 or so games of their season into one of two distinct evaluations.

Is this team good enough to invest in further? Should we give them the best chances to win as many games as possible this year?

Or, is this team the Cincinnati Reds?

Joking aside, that’s not completely true. While teams get lumped into the buyers or sellers categories as the trade deadline approaches, the Reds often don’t even do enough to qualify for either. And just last summer, they pulled off the remarkable feat of being a buyer at the deadline for a player who actively made them so bad in 2026 that it’s been a net negative investment.

This is a different Reds club than last year, obviously. This time around, their April magic has been replaced by hell from the injury gods, their record in close games having now been turned on its head by a threadbare bullpen. Across the entire sport’s highest level, only the Colorado Rockies have a worse run differential than these Reds, who once again reside in the cellar of the National League Central division.

So, it’s unsurprising that when asked at the end of last week whether or not this club should be a buyer, or a seller as trade season heats up this summer, roughly 3 out of 5 of you responded that they needed to start selling off players.

Digging themselves out of this hole is going to be difficult when Hunter Greene is still several weeks away. It’ll be difficult without half their bullpen, without Elly De La Cruz for another week or so.

The problem is, what Cincinnati has on the fringes of its long-term plan is a handful of players who haven’t exactly stacked up a ton of value on the trade market.

Eugenio Suarez is the biggest name of the bunch, but he’s having the single worst season of his career and will turn 35 years old this summer. The veterans signed to anchor the bullpen – Emilio Pagan, Pierce Johnson, Caleb Ferguson – are either injured or have been already this year, limiting the significance of any return if they are moved. Nate Lowe has hit well for most of the year, but there’s a reason why his market this offseason was so poor the Reds got him on a minor league deal in the first place. And pending free agent Brady Singer has the fourth lowest fWAR of the 130 pitchers who have thrown at least 50 IP so far this season.

So, selling at the fringes here doesn’t even do much to improve the future, aside from saving a few million bucks that the owners likely wouldn’t pour back into the team 100% anyway. The question I should probably have asked – and likely will again soon – is whether there are pieces that still have more team control than that group who don’t look like they fit the future of this franchise’s next window to compete who should be marketed this summer. That’s the kind of move that could bring back something of significance, a move that could shake the foundation of a franchise that’s found a way to stumble through this rebuild almost as badly as it stumbled through the last two.

Regardless, it sure looks like this club has no business being a buyer this summer. And if that’s the case, they might as well end up sellers.

Oh well. You win some, you lose some. Or, in the Giants’ case, you mostly lose. It has been a year since the Giants traded for Rafael Devers, and like most of their big swings since allowing Buster Posey to take the reins of the front office, the team has come up empty and looked bad in the attempt. It turns out that the critics of the deal were spot on. Devers’ contract was underwater from the moment the Red Sox signed him to it and the collapse of his skillset came even faster than the projection. Do the Giants inspire failure or does everything they touch turn to garbage by sheer coincidence? In any case, there’s nothing that can be done to improve Devers’ hitting.

He’s hitting .235/.293/.413 on the season while playing every game. He has 9 homers and is tied for the lead league in doubles with 21; so, you know, it’s not all bad. But the underlying metrics affirm what we’ve seen throughout the year: a hitter who’s a mess at the plate. At the end of May, I looked at Matt Chapman’s hitting metrics and came away with the thought that he’s not in an age-related decline but instead a focus or talent disruption. I see a vaguely similar situation for Devers, too.

He still hits the ball hard. That counts for something. His 49.5% Hard Hit rate is 88th percentile and average exit velocity of 91.9 mph is 87th. His 9.5% Barrel rate is the only other category where he measures as above average (61st percentile); but, these are all still big declines from last year, and especially his heyday of 2021-2024 (.279/.354/.519 — 126 HR 384 RBI — +17.0 fWAR).

He’s also whiffing on pitches at the same rate over the past several years. It’s 31.6% this year (10th percentile), but compare that back to 2021:

2021: 27.7% (29th)
2022: 28.2% (25th)
2023: 26.1% (45th)
2024: 30.9% (14th)
2025: 31.6% (10th)
2026: 30.8% (17th)

The big line of demarcation in his career was going from 2023 to 2024 when the big problem cited for why the contract was already underwater first asserted itself: that’s his contact rate in the strike zone. From 21-23 it was 79.2% on average. In 2024, it dropped to 74.9% and last year it fell to 73.9%. This year, it’s at 74.2%. The league average in this stat is between 76-77% every year. Just to give you some more context, going back to 2021, here are the 10 worst zone contact rate guys who got enough at bats to qualify for the batter leaderboards:

10. Luke Raley, 76.8%
9. Patrick Wisdom, 76.8%
8. Zack Gelof, 76.0%
7. Chris Taylor, 75.1%
6. Christopher Morel, 74.7%
5. J.D. Davis, 74.3%
4. Gabriel Arias, 74.0%
3. Matt Wallner, 73.2%
2. Jose Siri, 72.6%
1. Joey Gallo, 72.3%

Because of his outstanding 21-23, Devers winds up ranking just the 13th-lowest; however, if we adjust the years to 2024-present, Devers experiences a dramatic reranking.

10. Kyle Schwarber, 80.3%
9. Ryan McMahon, 80.3%
8. Adolis Garcia, 80.2%
7. Teoscar Hernanez, 79.9%
6. Mark Vientos, 79.9%
5. Jazz Chisholm, 79.1%
4. Randy Arozarena, 78.4%
3. Oneil Cruz, 77.9%
2. Nolan Gorman, 76.6%
1. Rafael Devers, 74.6%

All this to say that Devers’ continued inability to make consistent contact in the strike zone is now crashing into his other declined skill: pitch recognition. From 21-23 he had a called strike percentage of 10.7%. In 2024 it rose to 12.3% and last year it was 13.2%. This year, it’s 15%. Now, this rate has maybe a lot to do with ABS. Called balls have been turned to strikes against Rafael Devers 7 out of 9 times. He’s won just 1 challenge out of 6.

But the increased called strike rate parallels with a trend of him simply swinging less. Prior to 2024, he was swinging at around 53.5% of pitches thrown. That rate has dropped to 50% the past few seasons. His 30.3% strikeout rate is the highest of his career by far — 22% for his career, 25.5% for 2024-2025. So, what’s happening? He’s swinging less often but getting more called strikes (ABS is a partial culprit, of course) and still swinging and missing a lot when he does pull the trigger.

That bat speed doesn’t look good.

Statcast only tracks bat speed back to 2023, but take a look at this decline:

2023: 73.4 mph (68th percentile)
2024: 72.5 mph (61st)
2025: 71.6 mph (42nd)
2026: 71.7 mph (44th)

This is getting down to around LaMonte Wade Jr.’s at the start of last season, when he looked so bad I wondered if it was a portent of doom (it was!). LWJ’s wound up falling all the way down to 70 mph last year, but in a very small sample with the Astros this season (13 PA, where he has a 1.135 OPS) it’s up to 73.2 mph.

So, it’s not impossible that Devers makes some adjustments and optimizes his skills, some of which are working for him this season. But it’s hard to envision him making that turnaround… at least this season.

Luis Arraez was a free agent who set out to prove himself as a second baseman. Yes, Ron Washington has been there to give him some very relevant support, but it started with his tenacity. Jung Hoo Lee’s hitting seems to have improved because he’s been studying Luis Arraez. So, whatever turnaround to his career that might happen will have to come from Rafael Devers himself. Hitting coaches rarely get credit for fixing hitters and the Giants’ current coaching staff seems a lot more hands off or outright bad as any in recent memory.

But before you go thinking that I’m calling Devers’s character into question, let me put it this way: I think he’s taken to first base just fine, and that doesn’t happen if he doesn’t put in the work. When I watch him play the field, I see a goofy guy with a baseball-only body doing his best to field… and he’s okay. Definitely closer to terrible than great, but I wouldn’t characterize the play as outright bad. He’s also playing every day, which I think is a credit to him for having a degree of focus that would keep him interested in doing exactly that.

So, the focus is there, which only leaves buy in. Does he think he needs to make some changes to his swing or approach?

The Giants probably don’t feel like they know him well enough to have that conversation either. The coaching staff turnover being part of that and the green-ness of the current staff the other part. But also, as much as we’d like to think that the data revolution brought Apple Store-level service to every player, where a quant with an iPad just scoots up next to a player and is able to help them with a few graphics and optimized phrasing, I think it still comes down to the player seeking out what they need and doing the important work of actually incorporating changes into their approach. That’s why the headline reads as it does. Athletes aren’t often able to remake themselves on the fly in part because it’s hard to accept that the usual way of doing things has stopped working.

So, I guess in a way, this post is a lot like that Matt Chapman post. Unlike Chapman, though, Devers is definitely experiencing a physical decline of some sort (he’s not hitting the ball as hard), but the decline from a good player to a practically useless one appears to be entirely self-engineered. It’s unlikely that a 29-year old goes out like this based on aging alone. But, as Buster Posey is fond of saying, baseball is hard.

The situation isn’t hopeless, especially since Devers wound up having a good year after a rough time following the trade last year. It’s just that nothing the Giants have done this year and most of the last decade should give anyone hope for a better future.

The Mets are dealing with yet another injury, with right-hander Christian Scott hitting the IL.

The club announced that Scott has been placed on the 15-day IL, retroactive to June 12, with right hip impingement. Right-handers Tobias Myers and Jonathan Pintaro have been called up, and righty releiver Daniel Duarte has been optioned to Triple-A Syracuse.

Additionally, the Mets claimed infielder Zack Short off waivers from the Detroit Tigers and transferred infielder Jorge Polanco to the 60-day IL.

Scott pitched 4.2 innings against the St. Louis Cardinals on Thursday in his most recent outing. 

Overall, Scott has made nine starts this season, pitching to a 3.10 ERA over 40.2 innings. 

The Mets already have Kodai Senga on the IL, and with Sean Manaea and David Peterson pitching out of hybrid starter/bulk reliever roles, Scott, Freddy Peralta, and Nolan McLean were the only three definitive starters. 

While Scott’s next start likely would have fallen on Tuesday, the Mets have left things vague with their rotation plans for the upcoming series in Cincinnati. 

Myers will start on Monday night, but the team did not announce starters for the following two games.

There would seem to be a strong possibility that Jonah Tong will eventually get recalled to take Scott’s place in the rotation. Tong made three appearances for the Mets earlier this season, posting a 3.60 ERA. Since being optioned back to Triple-A, Tong has allowed eight earned runs in 9.0 innings over two starts.

Left-hander Zach Thornton is also on the 40-man roster, making him a possibility as well. 

Meanwhile, moving Polanco to the 60-day IL doesn't seem to be any reason for concern, as he hasn't played since April 14, making this more of a paper move than anything else. 

The 31-year-old Short played 10 games with Mets in 2024 and spent this year's spring training with the Yankees. He played 23 games with the Tigers this season, hitting .167.