After ten years and 1,662 plate-appearances, it appears the Pavin Smith era in Arizona has ended. His time here is likely notable more for its length than its quality. In franchise history, only seven position players have appeared in more seasons for the Diamondbacks. But Smith was never a full-time, regular player: just once did he reach even ninety games, and he trails the likes of Orlando Hudson and Conor Jackson in PA as a D-back. He certainly wasn’t great: his time here ends barely better than replacement (0.2 bWAR, 0.9 fWAR). But he wasn’t expensive either: this was the first year Pavin earned any semi-significant amount. I’d say he didn’t deserve the brutal vitriol hurled at him by certain sections of online fandom.
Perhaps it was a sense of disappointment at Smith never living up to hopes and expectations. He was a first-round pick – and a high one at that, going seventh overall in the 2017 draft, as Mike Hazen’s first ever selection. Admittedly, it wasn’t a great class that year: excluding Drew Rasmussen, who didn’t sign, only two of the top sixty players have reached even eight bWAR so far: Hunter Greene and Trevor Rogers [The most productive player has arguably been Daulton Varsho, selected after sixty-seven others] As a yardstick, the following year already has seven such. Arizona could have done worse. #4 in 2017, Brendan McKay, threw less than fifty innings at below replacement level, and #6 Austin Beck never reached the majors.
At the time, John Sickels of Minor League Ball (remember that site?) wrote, “Overall few players offer the combination of safety and upside possessed by Smith.” Pavin was immediately named the team’s top prospect, and the following month was Arizona’s only player listed in the overall top 100 prospects by MLB Pipeline, coming in at #75. By the following spring, the general consensus was that he had been overtaken by pitcher Jon Duplantier – yeah, about that – but he was still the D-backs #2. However, a sluggish, power-depleted campaign in High-A, with only eleven HR in 120 games, saw him drop to the fringes of Arizona’s top 10 for 2019.
Smith rebounded that year, his SLG jumping 74 points despite a promotion to Double-A. The following year saw the minor-league season wiped out by COVID-19, but Pavin still made his major-league debut as a September call-up. Down the stretch, he hit 10-for-37 and notched his first home-run, against the Phillies (above – I had quite forgotten how weird things were that season, with a stadium devoid of fans, cardboard cutouts and piped-in crowd noise). The following year saw Smith’s sole campaign as a regular. He was much more an outfielder, starting at least five games at each OF spot, and making 98 of his 145 appearances there.
While he won our Rookie of the Year honor in 2021, (albeit in a weak class – “No award” came runner-up!) that largely set the tone for the years which followed. Smith hit respectably enough (a 98 OPS+), but mediocre defense wiped out any value at the plate. Outside of that brief 2020 stint, Pavin’s dWAR was below replacement every other season. This persisted, even as he moved from the outfield to the far easier position of first base. “Starting in center field: Pavin Smith” has a really weird sound to it now. But there was likely weirder, since in 2021 Ketel Marte was our main CF, on our way to a hundred and ten losses.
In 2023, however, the bat evaporated, as Smith hit just .188. His playing time consequently evaporated to 158 PA, and he was never able to command a regular spot as a Diamondback again. He always hit well in Reno: even given the offensive environment, a .955 OPS across 175 games for the Aces is still pretty good. But consistently translating this into success at the major-league level proved to be elusive. Oh, there were moments. Of the almost 23,000 major-league players, only 673 – less than three percent – have enjoyed a three-homer game. But Smith is among them, having done it on September 8th, 2024 (above). And two came off likely Hall of Famer, Justin Verlander.
However, the two seasons since have proved problematic, Smith struggling with a fatal combination of injury and ineffectiveness. He got off to a good start in 2025, and had an .852 OPS at the half-way point in the schedule, over almost 250 PA. But a right oblique strain in early July sidelined Pavin for six weeks, and he had barely returned when a left quad strain against the Brewers then ended his season. This year was worse still. He had lingering elbow soreness in spring training, and after a mere two games, this forced him onto the IL. He required surgery in mid-April to remove loose bodies from his left elbow, and struggled on his return. Smith was batting just .141 when designated for assignment on July 10.
There was one last hurrah. September saw Arizona desperately seeking a reliable left-handed bat to take on right-handed pitching, and Pavin got the call. The results had their moments, most notably a September 19th walk-off home-run against the Yankees, on the night the Diamondbacks honored the 2001 World Series team (above). But the team had decided Smith, now in his thirties and about to become significantly more expensive through arbitration, was no longer worth the squeeze. He was effectively non-tendered, being taken off the 40-man roster and becoming a minor-league free agent instead. Maybe he’ll sign back with the team in time for spring training!
Part of me kinda wants that to happen, simply to see the Twitiots’ heads explode. For I can’t recall the last time a player was the target of so much online hate – and, arguably, for little reason. At $2.25 million in his most expensive year, he was $850K cheaper than A.J. Puk this season, who didn’t play at all, and barely more than the startlingly useless Carlos Santana. It’s not as if Smith at first was blocking some top prospect either. Ildemaro Vargas was the most-used first baseman for Arizona this year in Smith’s absence. If I squint a moderate amount, perhaps too much faith in Smith caused Hazen to skimp on the 1B position since the departure of Christian Walker? That’s all I got. I know we have some in the #SmithHate camp present, and I’m genuinely curious.
It does leave a hole. Between them, the departed Vargas, Smith and Santana were responsible for half the starts at first base this year. Those need to be replaced. But that’s a question for another day, I think. For now, we just bid farewell to the riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma, that was Pavin Smith.
