There’s now less than two weeks to go until Opening Day, and things are definitely beginning to come into focus. We’ve lost our Opening Day starter, with Merrill Kelly’s nervous back ruling him out for that role. However, he started today’s game. Let’s start off with that section of the roster in more detail, shall we?
Starting rotation
- Zac Gallen ($22m)
- Brandon Pfaadt ($3.4m)
- Ryne Nelson ($3m)
- Eduardo Rodriguez ($21m)
- Michael Soroka ($7.5m)
No changes in personnel here, but a move of Soroka back from the bullpen is in order, due to the Kelly situation hinted at above. It’s uncertain when Merrill will be considered adequately stretched out in order to return to the rotation: that should become closer as we move towards Opening Day. It may not require a stay on the 10-day injured list, but I suspect it will. The D-backs do not need a fifth starter until their ninth game on Saturday April 4. This is due to the (weird) off-day the first Sunday of the season. However, if the team IL Kelly on Opening Day, and backdate this the maximum permitted three days he wouldn’t be able to come off until April 7.
Alternatively, they could keep the rotation on point, and use Soroka for spot starts on March 31st and April 5th. Or not IL Kelly at all: there’s a case to be made that four innings of Kelly is better than no innings at all. Or, if you’re feeling less charitable, better than four innings of Soroka. That pair could just piggy-back when needed for a start or, at worst, two. We’ll likely know more as we see how long Kelly pitches in his upcoming Cactus League outings, which would be March 18 and 23, if he maintains a normal five-day rotation. It’s all uncertain for now.
Gallen has been anointed as Opening Day starter, his fourth consecutive year in the role. Though both this year and last, he backed into the role after the original candidate was unable to fulfill the responsibilities of the position. After him, Jack has mapped out the most likely order. Pfaadt, for example, has been pitching the day after Gallen this spring, so it make sense he’ll follow him once the regular season starts. Things thereafter do become a little more flexible, and the World Baseball Classic also affected things, with uncertainty around Eduardo Rodriguez
Bullpen
- Ryan Thompson ($3.95m)
- Kevin Ginkel ($2.725m)
- Taylor Clarke ($1.55m)
- Kade Stroud
- Paul Sewald ($1.5m)
- Jonathan Loáisiga
- Brandyn Garcia
- Andrew Hoffmann
Moving Soroka into the rotation opens a spot in the bullpen. Albeit probably a relatively short-term one. but it’s not a major issue, since the like of Stroud, Garcia and Hoffman all have minor league options available, when Soroka goes back to long relief. I’m no longer convinced that Drey Jameson will crack the roster. While his velo has been up, he has had his struggles this spring (an 8.44 ERA, on eight hits and five walks over 5.1 IP). Oddly, it seems like the team has been stretching him out a little, with his more recent spring outing lasting thirty pitches. He only reached that figure in one of his 19 appearances last year. May be significant, may not.
Garcia is still my pick for the left-handers spot, but had a bit of a blow-up yesterday, to put it mildly. Until then both he and Philip Abner had put up decent numbers in spring. Abner has allowed one run over six innings, on three hits and three walks with seven strikeouts. Garcia had given up no runs over 4 IP, with a K:BB of 5:1. But Thursday’s rough outing (BB, HBP, 1B, HBP, BB – 26 pitches without recording an out) was definitely a concern, and his ERA went from zero to 11.25. The pessimist in me is predicting an elbow specialist in his future, naturally. Even if that isn’t the case, the door is certainly still open for Abner.
It’s possible the team could go with both, if Torey Lovullo wants two lefties. But I like the chances of Hoffmann, who has had an excellent spring. He has allowed one run over 4.2 innings on four hits, with a K:BB of 7:1. If he sustains that over the remaining couple of weeks, he could fill the final spot. It would, however, perhaps be between him and Stroud for who gets the short-stay token, and goes down to Reno when it is time for Merrill Kelly to rejoin the rotation, pushing Soroka down.
Starting line-up
- Catcher: Gabriel Moreno ($2.55m)
- First base: Carlos Santana ($2m)
- Second base: Ketel Marte ($15m)
- Shortstop: Geraldo Perdomo ($6.25m)
- Third-base: Nolan Arenado ($5m)
- Left field: Alek Thomas ($1.96m)
- Center field: Jordan Lawlar
- Right field: Corbin Carroll (10.635m)
- Designated hitter: Pavin Smith ($2.25m)
The good news about Carroll has certainly made a tricky situation in the outfield a lot more bearable. He didn’t just make it back in time for Opening Day, he did so with two weeks to spare. That should give him plenty of time to get ramped up, and there are backfield opportunities should more at-bats be needed. Lawlar has also played encouragingly well this spring. He has a .323 average and 1.174 OPS going into play this afternoon, while not embarrassing himself in center [despite the near miss the other day]. We haven’t seem much of Thomas, due to the WBC, but with Mexico now eliminated, he should be back in camp.
This has all removed the need for Ryan Waldschmidt to be rushed out of the majors for Opening Day. While we may still see him in 2026, service time elements – not just direct years, but a desire to avoid potential Super 2 status – will become a factor. While he played well enough, I’m fine with letting him mature in Reno for a bit. His time will come, and it may not be far off. Elsewhere on the diamond, things are progressing as expected. Nobody has got hurt, and nobody has done much in terms of performance – either to play their way out of a starting spot or into one.
Bench
- James McCann ($2.75m)
- Tim Tawa
- Jorge Barrosa
- Ildemaro Vargas
The supposed deal for a utility player discussed last time still has been notable by its absence, but the need still seems to be there. However, every day which passes makes it seem more likely the team is going to be comfortable going with the quartet above, or something close to it. I’m a lot happier with Barrosa as a fourth outfielder than I was when it seemed like he might become an everyday left-fielder. With him being out of options, it will get a little tricky when Lourdes Gurriel comes back and a spot needs to be found. What happens may depend on how Lawlar fares in center: he does still have a minor-league option left, if needed.
Meanwhile, Vargas comes into play today batting .345, though has yet to take a walk. I suspect that batting average is not sustainable, but he really isn’t going to be on the roster for his bat. What Vargas does have, is over 100 MLB innings at each infield position, as well as in left-field, so he offers a lot of positional flexibility and experience. Between him, Tawa and Barrosa (plus, in a pitch, Pavin Smith can play the outfield – albeit for some loose definition of “play”), I feel like the D-backs have adequate coverage around the diamond.
Payroll
- Estimated 2026 Payroll: $195M
- Estimated Final 2025 Payroll: $188M
No change here since last time, so that’s nice.
