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Upon trading for superstar Alex Rodriguez in February 2004 and moving him to third base, the Yankees could rest easy knowing that they had secured a real long-term answer for the hot corner. For the better part of nine years, the Yankees planned their seasons with A-Rod penciled in at third, but by 2014, they ran into a dilemma. Multiple hip surgeries and the aches of age had worn down his ability to man third, and off-field controversy had finally caught up to him, leading to a PED suspension for the entire 2014 campaign. Although A-Rod would return, he was almost exclusively a designated hitter.

In the 13 years since A-Rod’s decline truly began in 2013, the Yankees have cycled through several names in search of an answer. Twenty different players (including A-Rod himself) have accumulated at least 100 PA at third for them since then, and they comprise quite the odd roll call. DJ LeMahieu leads the way in terms of playing time, but the man with the second-most is the focus of our birthday feature today: Chase Headley. A one-time standout in San Diego acquired by Yankees GM Brian Cashman via trade, the switch-hitter falls into a sort of middle ground of memory. New York fans who followed those mid-2010s teams will recall his modest play, but for those who didn’t become diehards until after the fact? His legacy is a little more fuzzy.

Chase Jordan Headley
Born: May 9, 1984 (Fountain, CO)
Yankees Tenure: 2014-17

A Colorado native who grew up a little over an hour outside Denver in Fountain, Headley found his calling card in baseball at Fountain-Fort Carson High School. The valedictorian of his class, he went on to attend the University of the Pacific, where he hit .330/.453/.464 as a freshman and quickly earned national attention. Headley transferred to the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, and continued to ascend despite an injury in his sophomore campaign. He broke school records in his junior season and helped lead the Volunteers to a 2005 College World Series berth before being selected by the Padres in the second round of the 2005 MLB Draft, just three picks after the Yankees selected somewhat-forgotten Longhorn righty J. Brent Cox.

The third baseman moved up the minor league rankings over two seasons, being named the Texas League Player of the Year with a .330/.437/.580 triple slash for the 2007 San Antonio Missions. He made his MLB debut that same year, appearing in a handful of contests in June when the Padres needed big-league help before returning for a cup of coffee at the very end of the year. He went hitless in his first career game but registered his first knock in his third, a single against future teammate Rich Hill.

Prior to 2008, Headley was named among the top 35 MLB prospects by both Baseball Prospectus and Baseabll America. He spent his spring with Triple-A Portland and earned a more long-term look with San Diego by mid-June. He played in 91 games in ’08, producing a slash line of .269/.337/.420 and an OPS+ of 110. Headley’s first career homer actually came in an interleague game at Old Yankee Stadium, taking reliever Kyle Farnsworth deep on June 18th.

After proving that he could be an above-average hitter at the major league level, Headley became a full-time Padres player in 2009. In 156 games, Headley was still an above-average player at the plate, finishing the year with a .262 batting average and a 102 OPS+.

The biggest problem in Headley’s first full season was the strikeout, as it can be for many young players trying to adjust to life full-time with the best of the best. In those 156 games, Headley finished with 133 strikeouts, which ranked among the top 30 of all MLB hitters. However, he reached double-digit home runs for the first time in his career with 12 and achieved the 60-RBI plateau as well. Headley was also still primarily playing left field since Kevin Kouzmanoff was San Diego’s de facto third baseman.

By 2010, Kouzmanoff had been traded, opening up the hot corner for Headley. It was his natural position throughout his time in college and the minors, and he turned into a terrific defender aet third.

Headley gradually came into his own as a big leaguer across 2010 and 2011. Those years merely represented a prelude for 2012 — a season for the ages and the one he’s best known for around baseball.

In 2012, not only did Headley miss only one game, but across those 161 appearances, Headley put his name on the map amid frequent rumors of a potential trade. He slashed .286/.376/.498 with an OPS+ of 145. He walked a career-high 86 times, stole a career-high 17 bases, and also had career highs in home runs (31), RBI’s (115), OPS+ (145), and WAR (6.4). Those home runs were the most of any NL third baseman, and the RBI’s were also not just the most of his career, but they were also the highest in the National League. In 2012, Headley also received major league honors, finishing with a Gold Glove Award and a Silver Slugger Award, while also finishing fifth in NL MVP voting.

Entering camp for his age-29 season, the Padres thought they had a star on their hands. Unfortunately, it didn’t take long for 2012 to look like an outlier. Headley’s 2013 was marred by injury, though, as he started the season on the then-disabled list due to a hand injury in spring training after a slide into second base, and he played through a torn meniscus in his left knee throughout the year, which he believed contributed to his decline in offensive production. Headley’s OPS+ was still a productive 115, but his power was more than halved to 13 homers. He would never again hit even 15 homers in a season.

At the start of 2014, Headley’s numbers took another dip, and this time, the Padres decided it would be best to move on. So on July 22nd, the Padres traded Headley to the Yankees. In return, they received a replacement in Yangervis Solarte—who had come to spring training as a non-roster invitee and soon became a fan favorite and primary third baseman in A-Rod’s absence—and pitching prospect Rafael De Paula. Flying to New York that day, Headley’s travels meant that he didn’t start, but he entered his first game as a Yankee in the eighth inning, pinch-hitting for Zelous Wheeler. Although he struck out, the game went deep into the night, and a 14th-inning rally found Headley with a chance to win it in his pinstriped debut.

The walk-off was a good omen for Headley’s first foray in pinstripes. He hit .262/.371/.398 with a 119 OPS+ in 58 games down the stretch for the Yankees, winning more fans over with a walk-off homer on September 4th against the defending champion Red Sox for good measure. It was a super-effective start to his career in the Bronx. The only downside was that the 2014 Yankees were a pretty mediocre squad on the whole, featuring some famous names but underwhelming results while missing the playoffs with just 84 wins.

Encouraged by his second half, the Yankees and Headley came together on a four-year, $52 million deal a month after the third baseman hit free agency. It wasn’t a huge investment—certainly not the kind that something closer to his 2012 might have merited—but it still proved to be a bit of an overpay. Headley’s offense plummeted back down to Earth, mustering only a 91 OPS+ across 2015-16 while hitting .256/.327/.703. He was still a useful defender, but the power that he had once shown continued to be lost, save for the occasionalflash. The Yankees were one-and-done as a Wild Card team in 2015, Headley going 0-for-3 in the shutout at the hands of Houston’s Dallas Keuchel.

After missing the playoffs in 2016, the Yankees surged back to the postseason with a surprising new core in 2017 led by a rookie Aaron Judge. Headley was better than he had been the previous two years and actually recorded an acceptable 100 OPS+ on the dot, batting .273/.352/.406 with 30 doubles and 12 homers. Seeking to boost their lineup at the Trade Deadline, the Yankees acquired third baseman Todd Frazier as part of a package from the White Sox, and took advantage of Headley’s always-maintained corner infield versatility by sliding him over to first base, where there was an opening due to Greg Bird’s midseason injury.

When Bird returned in time for the postseason, Headley and fellow odd mid-2010s signing Jacoby Ellsbury found themselves in the odd position of competing for DH time at the bottom of the lineup with incumbent Matt Holliday all but rendered a nonfactor due to an ailing back. Headley went hitless until the ALCS, when he suddenly came alive after the series against the infamous 2017 Astros shifted to Yankee Stadium. He went 7-for-15 across the final five games of the series in what turned out to be his last gasp of production as a big leaguer, delivering a pinch-hit single in the come-from-behind eighth-inning rally of Game 4 and then registering three hits in the 5-0 win in Game 5 that put New York on the brink of the pennant with a 3-2 series lead.

So close to what would have been the first World Series appearance of his career, Headley instead never made it. The Yankees infamously dropped the final two games in Houston and were sent packing.

Headley was still well-liked in the clubhouse, but the Yankees felt that they could only trust his 2017 results so much, even with Frazier vacating third base as a free agent. So when the Padres expressed an interest in young pitcher Bryan Mitchell, the Yankees offered to send him west if San Diego was willing to pick up almost all of the $13 million still owed to Headley for 2018; they had just made the megatrade for Giancarlo Stanton and were looking to get their payroll in order.

After some negotiations, the Padres were game, so Headley found himself back in San Diego. The reunion was brief. He went 6-for-52 (.115) with no power in 27 games, and he was released in May, marking the end of his 12-year career. Since stepping away from the game, he’s led a quiet retirement, understandably content to focus on family and raising his two sons, Colt and Cale, with his wife, Casey.

Happy 42nd birthday, Chase!

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

Does a one-pitch homer count as a sequence for anyone? It’s a fair question but bending the rules is ok.

What’s also ok is what Adolis Garcia is doing at the plate. The results haven’t been flashy and the underlying stuff is just fine. He is hitting the ball harder but is also not pulling the ball as much, which generally suppresses overall numbers.

But there are real changes that have be made to his approach. He has sort of cheated his way into newfound plate discipline by simply swinging less in general. His zone-swing rate is down 5.6% but he cut his chase down 6%. Over three-fourths of his at bats start with a take, and he has been swinging less at the best kind of pitches to hit.

In the aggregate, these have led to productive changes that should allow for a solid season. Because he is swinging less, his walk rate jumped over three percent as well.

Teams have started to catch on to the adjustments and have changed their game plans accordingly. Garcia might be ready to lean back into an aggressive approach or this was just a really bad pitch from Jeffrey Springs.

There are some reasons to believe these adjustments have more or less raised his floor than anything else. The ball still jumps off his bat but his pull flyball rate has taken a nose dive, which is part of why he is hitting some loud outs.

But a .707 OPS with his defense in right field is a very good one-year deal. There are very good reasons to believe that will continue.

Jonathan Bowlan’s weird inning in Miami.

Jonathan Bowlan three 31 pitches in Miami against five Marlins hitters. He threw 15 four-seam fastballs in those 31 pitches and only started two hitters with one.

His four-seam fastball is roughly 97 mph with about 18.5 inches of induced vertical break and 8.6 inches of run. It’s one of the best in the majors and has gotten very good results in his limited time as a Phillie. Hitters are only hitting just .111, no extra base hits, and are whiffing over 30% of the time on it. Given that Bowlan is a one or two inning reliever, it just feels like the pitch needs to be thrown more.

15 out of 31 in Miami is actually better than his general season usage at 41.4%, which seems low. He does throw a lot of offerings but given the role, would it be best if he simplified the mix?

The other pitches in his arsenal have been mixed. The changeup has not played very well with hitters hitting .500 on the pitch with a slugging of .625. He picked up a sweeper after joining the Phillies and it’s looked like his best secondary offering to start the season with the slider looking solid as well. He has struggled to land curveballs in the zone consistently and the sinker has generated some weak contact but not a lot of whiffs either.

A four-seam, sweeper, slider pitcher is may run into potential platoon issues but given that those are clearly his three best pitches, they should be what’s featured. The plan around that has to get simplified, given the role he is in and the fact that it isn’t working. He is a much better reliever than the 8.31 ERA would indicate.

It has been very well established at this point, but Foster Griffin throws a lot of pitches, seven of them to be exact. In order of usage, Griffin throws a cutter, a 4-seam fastball, a sweeper, a sinker, a changeup, a curveball and a splitter. However, Foster Griffin is not just throwing a lot of pitches for the sake of it. All of these pitches work together to create a coherent arsenal.

I would not say that any singular pitch Griffin has is elite, but they are all at least average. He is also willing to throw any pitch at any time. Other than his changeup, Griffin throws all his pitches to either handedness of batter. That makes him very unpredictable. This unique arsenal, along with outstanding command is why Griffin has the lowest ERA of any left handed starter.

Let’s break down Griffin’s pitches and talk about how they play off of each other. The bread and butter for Griffin is his cutter. It is the pitch he usually turns to when he really needs a big out. He uses it 31% of the time, which is twice as much as the next closest pitch in his arsenal. His cutter gets solid results, with a .241 average against and 11 strikeouts generated on the pitch. 

However, like most cutter’s, Griffin uses it as a pitch to get soft contact. The average exit velocity against his cutter is just 85.5 MPH, which is very good. He loves spotting that cutter on the inside part of the plate to righties and moving away from lefties. It was his most used pitch before he went to Japan, and it is still the pitch he trusts the most now.

Against the Marlins last night, Griffin was locating the cutter brilliantly. He threw it in the zone 68% of the time, but stayed out of the middle of the plate. Griffin’s cutter set the tone last night, but there are so many other pitches he uses to make his cutter even better.

While Foster Griffin’s changeup is his fifth most used pitch on the season, he relied a lot on it last night. It was the offering he threw the second most, and it was very effective. Marlins hitters swung at the changeup five times, and came up empty on three occasions. The changeup is an offering Griffin uses a lot against righties. However, he has not thrown a changeup all year to a left handed hitter.

With the Marlins stacking their lineup with righties, it is not much of a surprise that Griffin leaned on the changeup. Batters are only hitting .111 on the changeup this year. It pairs well with his cutter. The cutter comes into right handed hitters, while the changeup moves away from them.

One cool thing about Griffin is that he throws a changeup and a splitter that have two very distinct movement profiles. As Nats fans know, Griffin pitched in Japan for three years. Japanese pitchers love throwing splitters, so Griffin picked up that pitch while he was over there. Early in the season, the splitter was one of his better pitches. However, he has not had a great feel for it lately. Last night, he only threw two splitters, preferring the changeup instead.

Having two offspeed pitches is very unique though. Most guys either have a changeup or a splitter, not both. For pitchers, being unique is good and boy is Foster Griffin unique. Not many pitchers have 7 different pitches that are all in different velocity bands and have different movement profiles. Griffin does that, and you can see it when you look at the pitch plot.

Another pitch that Griffin learned in Japan was a sweeper. That pitch has become a massive weapon for him, especially against left handed hitters. His sweeper has a 35.9% whiff rate, the highest of any offering in his arsenal. When Griffin faces big left-handed power bats like Munetaka Murakami, the sweeper is the pitch he usually turns to. He gets a ton of movement on the sweeper, with three more inches of break than the average sweeper. 

It is crazy that we have gotten this deep into the story, and we have not discussed Griffin’s fastball at all. His heater is the least flashy pitch in his arsenal, but his 4-seamer and sinker both play important roles. Griffin is a soft-tosser, who only averages 91 MPH on his fastballs. 

However, he is not afraid to show hitters his heater. Even though his fastball is not hard, you still have to respect the pitch. Batters are only hitting .200 on his 4-seamer and .118 against the sinker. The sinker generates a ton of weak contact, with the average exit velocity on the pitch being just 81.4 MPH. He loves spotting the sinker on the inside corner to lefties and away from righties. The sinker is another pitch he picked up in Japan.

While this play ended up being a disaster, a great example of how Griffin uses his sinker came in the first inning against Kyle Stowers. On a 1-2 pitch, he got the Marlins slugger to swing at a sinker just off the plate and inside. He hit a broken bat bouncer, but the Nats made an error on the play. The result was not what we wanted, but it was a good process.

Another thing that Griffin did really well last night was blowing the 4-seamer by guys. He does not have much velocity, but when he puts his fastball at the top of the zone, it can get whiffs, especially with two strikes. In those two strike counts, a fastball is the last thing these hitters are expecting when facing a junk baller like Griffin. That makes his 90-93 MPH heaters seem a lot harder.

Somehow, there is still another pitch that Griffin throws that I have not talked about yet. The last pitch I want to discuss is Griffin’s curveball. His curveball is a classic 12-6 hook with a ton of drop. Against the Brewers in his previous start, the hook was a big time weapon for him. While he threw it 11% of the time last night, it took a back seat to some of his other pitches.

Last night, Foster Griffin showed how valuable a deep arsenal can be. He threw 38 cutters, 15 changeups, 14 sweepers, 13 4-seamers, 11 curveballs, 10 sinkers, and two splitters. Foster Griffin was truly an artist on the mound last night. That artistry got him through seven innings, where he allowed one earned run while striking out 9 and walking just one batter. 

The craziest part is that I am not that surprised by his outing. This was definitely one of Griffin’s best outings, but it was not an outlier. He has gone at least six innings in his last four starts, and has only allowed four earned runs in those outings. That is incredible stuff for a guy who signed a 1-year $5.5 million deal.

He is just such a joy to watch on the mound. One of my favorite Foster Griffin clips is when he struck out the side against the Dodgers, using three different pitches to finish guys. That sums up the Foster Griffin experience so far. His ERA is 2.12, and he has been absolutely masterful. Some of the underlying numbers suggest he may have a tough time keeping this up, but even if he is half the pitcher he has been so far, that is a great deal for the Nats.

With how well he is pitching, Griffin should be a highly attractive trade chip. A lot of contenders need starting pitching right now, and Griffin should be one of the better rentals on the market. Who knows though, if the Nats keep playing as well as they have recently, will they be sellers? I still believe they will be, but it is fun to dream.

Griffin could bring in a real haul for Paul Toboni, and who knows, they could always bring him back as a free agent in the offseason. The Nats missed on a couple pitching signings this offseason, but Foster Griffin has been a grand slam for this front office. Griffin was a 30 year old soft tosser, who only had 8 career innings in the big leagues.

However, Paul Toboni believed in the changes Griffin had made to his pitch mix and mentality. That belief is paying off in a way that I don’t even think the Nats front office could have expected. Foster Griffin has been absolutely fabulous, and that is thanks to his deep and extremely well rounded pitch mix.

Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (17-20) lost 2-1 (BOX SCORE)

Pecko started for Sugar Land and was solid tossing 3.2 scoreless innings while striking out 5 batters. Hendrickson pitched in relief and went 4.1 innings allowing 2 runs. The offense got on the board on a Nelson solo home run in the 9th inning but that was it as Sugar land fell 2-1.

Note: Pecko has a 1.04 ERA in Triple-A this season.

• James Nelson, DH: 2-for-4, R, HR, RBI
• CJ Alexander, LF: 2-for-4
• Carlos Perez, C: 1-for-4
• Cavan Biggio, 1B: 1-for-4
• Tommy Sacco, 2B: 1-for-2, BB

• Ethan Pecko, RHP: 3.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
• Sam Carlson, RHP: 0.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• Josh Hendrickson, LHP: 4.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 4 K
• Alimber Santa, RHP: 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (14-16) won 11-8 (BOX SCORE)

The Hooks got on the board in the first inning scoring 3 runs on a Sullivan solo home run, Encarnacion RBI single and Guillemette RBI single. They picked up another run in the third inning on an Austin solo home run. McPherson started for the Hooks but struggled allowing 7 runs over 3.1 innings. The Hooks picked up 3 more runs in the 5th on an Austin 2 run home run and Lytle RBI single. The offense tied things up in the 6th on a Holy steal of home. In the 7th, the Hooks took the lead on a Lytle RBI double and Garcia RBI single. The Hooks got one more in the 8th on a Whitaker RBI single. David tossed a scoreless inning in relief and the game was called due to lightning as the Hooks won 11-8.

Note: Holy is hitting .500 in Double-A.

• Joseph Sullivan, CF: 1-for-5, R, HR, RBI
• Max Holy, SS: 3-for-5, 2 R, 2B, SB
• Yamal Encarnacion, 2B: 2-for-5, 2 R, RBI, SB
• Trevor Austin, DH: 2-for-4, 3 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI, BB, SB
• Tyler Whitaker, LF: 1-for-3, 2 R, RBI, BB, SB
• Garret Guillemette, 1B: 1-for-5, RBI
• Mason Lytle, RF: 2-for-4, R, 2B, 2 RBI
• John Garcia, C: 1-for-4, RBI
• Alberto Hernandez, 3B: 2-for-4

• Brandon McPherson, RHP: 3.1 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 3 BB, 2 K
• Michael Cuevas, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 4 BB, 1 K
• Alex Santos, RHP: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K (WIN)
• Ramsey David, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K (SAVE)

A+: Asheville Tourists (8-23) lost 13-8 (BOX SCORE)

Smith started for Asheville but struggled allowing 9 runs, 7 earned, over 1.2 innings. He was relieved by Pena who allowed 2 runs over 3.2 innings. Asheville got on the board scoring 2 runs in the 4th on a Daudet RBI single and Walker RBI groundout. They scored 2 more runs in the 5th on a Frey solo home run and Call RBI double. Rome picked up 2 more runs to extend their lead. In the 9th, the Asheville offense battled getting a 3 run home run from Frey and a solo home run from Schiavone, but unfortunately it wasn’t enough as Asheville fell 13-8.

Note: Frey is hitting .294 over his last 8 games.

• Justin Thomas, CF: 1-for-4, R, BB
• Ethan Frey, LF: 3-for-5, 2 R, 2 HR, 4 RBI
• Jason Schiavone, C: 2-for-5, 2 R, 2B, HR, RBI
• Chase Call, RF: 2-for-5, R, 2B, RBI
• Narbe Cruz, SS: 2-for-4, R, 2B
• Zach Daudet, 3B: 2-for-4, RBI
• Kyle Walker, 2B: 0-for-2, R, 2 BB

• Parker Smith, RHP: 1.2 IP, 6 H, 9 R, 7 ER, 3 BB, 1 K
• Alain Pena, RHP: 3.2 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
• Jose Guedez, RHP: 2.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
• Eurys Martich, RHP: 1.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 1 K

A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (12-19) lost 10-4 (BOX SCORE) 

Dixon started for the Woodpeckers and allowed 2 runs over 3.1 innings while striking out 7 batters. The offense got on the board in the 2nd inning scoring a run on an error. Serrano relieved Dixon but struggled allowing 5 runs, 3 earned, over 2.2 innings. The offense picked up 3 runs in the 6th scoring 2 runs on an error and another run on a Sierra RBI double. Wells relieved Serrano and allowed 3 runs as the Warbirds put the game out of reach. The Woodpeckers were unable to respond and fell 10-4.

Note: Sierra is hitting .349 over his last 13 games.

• Xavier Neyens, 3B: 1-for-3, R, BB
• Kevin Alvarez, CF: 2-for-4, R
• Juan Sierra, RF: 2-for-4, R, 2B, RBI

• Joey Dixon, RHP: 3.1 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K
• Jose Serrano, RHP: 2.2 IP, 3 H, 5 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
• Jackson Wells, RHP: 2.0 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
• Brandon Cassedy, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: Brandon Bielak – 6:05 CT

CC: Brett Gillis – 6:05 CT

AV: TBD – 5:05 CT

FV: Ryan Forcucci – 6:05 CT

The 2026 Cubs are off to an historic start. It’s an exceedingly rare occurrence to have two distinct 10-game winning streaks over a team’s first 39 games. Certainly none of us have seen the Cubs do anything like this before. For what it’s worth, just from an overall standpoint, it only took the 2016 Cubs 40 games to win 29. The Cubs will take at least 41 to get there and that would mean sweeping this series. After reaching 29 wins, though, that 2016 team lost three straight. If these Cubs split their next four games, they will have matched those Cubs through 43 games.

I traditionally abhor comparisons like that. Chasing the best seasons (or best players) in your team’s history just sets you up for failure. This team is very much different than that one. But more importantly, this team could win more games than that one in the regular season and not win a championship. Or, it could lose more regular season games but go on to win anyway. While regular season success has some correlation to postseason success there are many factors that can be predictive of postseason success. That’s why I don’t like comparisons. Instead, I like to let each season breathe and be its own thing.

Through a fresh lens, I’m able to relax and enjoy myself more. To enjoy what each win can bring. Right now, I’m enjoying underestimating this team. I’m normally such an optimist when it comes to them. I feel like I’m usually a little bit disappointed because that they leave some winnable games on the table. Not this team, though. Over the first few weeks of the season, maybe they let one or two get away. But over these last 23 games? Just one game in San Diego that maybe a couple more plays might have flipped. Otherwise, this team just keeps winning. They win when everything clicks. They win when things are rough.

20 wins in 23 games. It really is quite remarkable. It’s the kind of run that an all-time great NBA team might go on. It’s usually the kind of run we only really see out of the best few NCAA hoops teams in a given year. It is a wholly remarkable streak for an MLB team to have. It’s frankly inconceivable. And a whole lot of fun. And I just don’t want it to end. Keep the greed rolling. I don’t know where all of this ends, but let’s just keep tearing up the script.

Three Positives:

• Ben Brown got things started (hat tip to two red-hot Cubs in Michael Conforto and Ian Happ for staking him a lead four batters into the game). Ben threw four innings with just one walk standing between him and perfection. I thought for sure that three innings would be the best we could possibly expect. And he beat that expectation.
• Seiya Suzuki gave the Cubs some cushion with a two-run homer. He also drew two walks and ended up scoring two total runs.
• Javier Assad threw 3.2 innings of relief, needing 12 batters to get 11 outs. Between Assad and Brown, they faced 25 Rangers and allowed two walks and one hit. The Rangers offense was kept very, very quiet.

Hat tip to just about everyone, but particularly Pete Crow-Armstrong, who had two more hits including a double the other way and stole a base. OPS .721 and climbing (wRC+ 103)

Game 39, May 8: Cubs 7, Rangers 1 (27-12)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Ben Brown (.212). 4 IP, 13 BF, 0 H, BB, 0 ER, 3 K
• Hero: Javier Assad (.194). 3.2 IP, 12 BF, H, BB, 0 ER, K (W 3-1)
• Sidekick: Seiya Suzuki (.133). 1-3, HR, BB, 2 RBI, 2 R

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Ryan Rolison (-.155). 0.1 IP, 4 BF, H, 2 BB, ER
• Goat: Carson Kelly (-.056). 0-4
• Kid: Nico Hoerner (-.052). 0-5

WPA Play of the Game: Seiya Suzuki’s two-run homer with no outs in the fourth extended the Cub lead to three. (.159)

*Rangers Play of the Game: Justin Foscue singled with runners on first and second and one out in the fifth, scoring the Rangers only run and briefly cutting the Cub lead to two. (.106)

Player of the Game:

Game 38 Winner: Shōta Imanaga received 204 of 289 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 3/Bottom 3)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Michael Conforto +12
• Shōta Imanaga +10
• Michael Bsuch +9
• Dansby Swanson/Jacob Webb/Caleb Thielbar/Phil Maton -6
• Matt Shaw -9
• Seiya Suzuki -13

Current Win Pace: 112.15 wins

Up Next: Game two of the three-game set on Saturday night in Texas. Edward Cabrera (3-0, 3.27, 41.1 IP) makes his eighth start as a Cub. He’s thrown at least five innings in every start and has allowed exactly three earned runs in five consecutive starts (winning three of those). So you kind of know what to expect out of him. In two road starts, he’s allowed three runs in 11.1 innings.

26-year-old Jack Leiter (1-3, 5.45, 38) makes his eighth start of the year. The second overall pick by the Rangers is one of five different family members to pitch professionally. Most of us know his cousin Mark Jr. best, former Cub. Al Leiter is Jack’s dad and Mark Leiter Sr. his uncle. One can only imagine what a family softball game might look like. Jack has made 45 appearances at the big league level, 42 of them starts, with a 4.91 ERA. So he hasn’t quite lived up to the hype of the 2nd overall pick yet. But he does have 43 strikeouts in his 38 innings, so the stuff is real. Last time out, he allowed five runs on five hits and a walk in 6.2 innings, striking out 10. He was the loser in that one and hasn’t won since his season debut back on March 30.

Keep finding ways to win.

Go Cubs.

Good morning ,LSB.

The Rangers lost to the Cubs last night with what was, by my count, their fourth horrible loss in five games.

Evan Grant focuses on maybe the worst defensive play in MLB this season in his game story.

Kennedi Landry writes about the weird night for Kumar Rocker.

Jeff Wilson says far and away No. 1 on the Rangers list of needs is for Corey Seager to get it in gear.

Elsewhere the Rangers offered updates on a whole heap of injured pitchers, including Cody Bradford and Jordan Montgomery.

Josh Sborz has entered baseballs mechanical maintenance program.

Grant says don’t sell off quite yet in his weekly Rangers stock report.

MLB Pipeline released its first official 2026 mock draft.

And Shawn McFarland tells the story of how rookie reliever Payton Gray has drawn inspiration from his mother’s battle with cancer.

That’s all for this morning. The Rangers look to bounce back today against the Cubs at 6:05 with Jack Leiter on the mound for Texas.

Have a great weekend!

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It's another full slate across the Major Leagues today, and there's no shortage of value in my MLB player props. I'll include Shea Langeliers, Otto Lopez, and Jack Leiter. 

Read more for my MLB picks for Saturday, May 9. 

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Shea Langeliers	Over 1.5 total bases	+100
Otto Lopez	Over 1.5 hits	+159
Jack Leiter	Over 16.5 outs recorded	-120

Shea Langeliers Over 1.5 total bases (+100)

Shea Langeliers has served as one of the Athletics' best hitters this year. He's batting .333 with 11 home runs, and Langeliers has already smacked six hits in May. The slugger has cashed the Over in total bases in three of his last five contests. While Langeliers was just 1-for-5 on Friday, he finished 2-for-5 in the finale against the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday with a long ball. 

Langeliers will face Baltimore Orioles righty Shane Baz today, who has a 4.99 ERA. Langeliers is 4-for-10 lifetime against him with a pair of doubles and a home run. Only one of his hits versus the right-hander hasn't been for extra bases. He's also hitting .323 against righties, and Baz is a very inconsistent arm.

• Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MASN, NBCS-CA

Otto Lopez Over 1.5 hits (+159)

Otto Lopez has emerged as one of the top hitters in the Majors in 2026. He leads the MLB in hits with 50, and the infielder has cashed the Over in hits in back-to-back games. Lopez finished 3-for-4 in the series opener against the Washington Nationals on Friday evening, and he was also 2-for-4 on Thursday against the Baltimore Orioles. 

Lopez will be excited for this matchup as the Nats send Zack Littell to the hill, who owns an ERA north of seven. While Lopez is 0-for-3 vs. Littell, it's a small sample size, and Littell has allowed 40 hits in 32.1 innings of work this season. Lopez is batting .341 at home, and he's also hitting .454 in May so far. 

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Marlins.TV, Nationals.TV

Jack Leiter Over 16.5 outs recorded (-120)

Jack Leiter may not have the best ERA early on, but he's pitching deep into games lately. The Texas Rangers starter has hit the Over in outs recorded in back-to-back outings, lasting six innings on April 27, and another 6.2 frames last time out. While he gave up nine earned runs combined in those starts, the Rangers have given him a longer leash.

He's also pitched better at home, compiling a 4.50 ERA compared to a 6.14 ERA on the road. Leiter also has just four free passes across his last three starts, which is a big reason Texas has left him out there longer than usual. Facing the Chicago Cubs won't be easy, but Leiter will battle and keep his team in the game.

• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Marquee Sports Network, CW33

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Offense may be in short supply for two losing teams

The New York Mets look to win their third series in a row as they play game two in Arizona. Despite the recent run of success, New York is still tied for the worst record in the National League.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are only 2.5 games better, however.

Neither team has been hitting, but the Mets have the better end of the pitching matchup. That's why my Mets vs. Diamondbacks predictions and MLB picks have the Mets winning as a road favorite.

Who will win Mets vs Diamondbacks today: Mets moneyline (-108)

Both teams have been punchless, but pitching has been the difference. The New York Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks each scored under five runs in seven of 10 games.

But New York is 3-4 as their pitchers matched opposing zeroes, while Arizona lost all of them.

The Mets are in better shape Saturday, with NL ERA leader Clay Holmes on the mound. His walk rate is the lowest in four years, and his hit rate is the lowest in five.

Arizona counters with Merrill Kelly, who has been a disaster so far this year. He's walking 7.1 batters per nine innings and allowing a home run every three innings.

COVERS INTEL:Kelly literally could not be worse so far this season. He's in baseball's bottom 1% in pitching run value, both fastball and offspeed run value, expected ERA, and opposing batting average, as well as opponent barrel percentage.

Mets vs Diamondbacks Over/Under pick: Under 9.5 (-108)

The Mets rank at the bottom of MLB in OPS and second-to-last in runs per game. They've hit slightly better over the last week, but were still 6% below league average over that span.

If Kelly, who missed spring training with an injury, can't figure out what to adjust to regain his old form, the Mets should be able to score. But in that case, Kelly likely won't be around very long.

The D-Backs have been better, but still below league average, at the plate all season, but their bats have abandoned them lately. Arizona is hitting .171 with .548 OPS over the last week, 42% below league average.

Mets vs Diamondbacks odds

• Moneyline: Mets -108 | Diamondbacks +104
• Run line: Mets -1.5 (+150) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-156)
• Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+104) | Under 9.5 (-108)

Mets vs Diamondbacks trend

The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 23 away games (+9.30 Units / 37% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Diamondbacks.

How to watch Mets vs Diamondbacks and game info

Mets vs Diamondbacks latest injuries

Mets vs Diamondbacks weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Friday in the Dodgers minors featured two rehabbing major leaguers, a doubleheader split, and a wild comeback for naught.

Player of the day

Tyler Fitzgerald hit his first two home runs since joining the Dodgers organization, including a game-tying grand slam with one out in the ninth inning for Oklahoma City.

Fitzgerald, acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays on April 28, drove in six runs on the night. He started at second base, then shifted over to third base after rehabber Kiké Hernández played his seven innings.

Triple-A Oklahoma City

Given new life by Fitzgerald, the Comets allowed two runs in the 10th inning in a loss to the Salt Lake Bees (Angels). Starter Christian Romero allowed seven runs in his five innings, but was off the hook thanks to the ninth-inning grand slam.

James Tibbs III and Jack Suwinski each had two hits and scored a run.

Rehabbing Dodgers

Mookie Betts singled once in three at-bats and played five innings at shortstop in his first minor league game in 11 years. The plan is for Betts to play once more for the Comets on Saturday, then possibly be activated off the injured list Monday.

Kiké Hernández was 0-for-3 with a pair of strikeouts in his third rehab game. He played seven innings at third base on Friday, after playing five innings at the hot corner on both Tuesday and Thursday.

Double-A Tulsa

The Drillers split a doubleheader with the Arkansas Travelers (Mariners), dropping the first game then pitching a shutout in the second contest. Payton Martin struck out six in four scoreless innings in the nightcap, working around three singles and two walks to keep Arkansas off the board.

Chris Newell had three hits and drove in a pair in the nightcap. Kole Myers homered.

Tulsa in the first game only had two hits, including a solo home run by catcher Frank Rodriguez in the sixth inning for the Drillers’ only run of the opener.

High-A Great Lakes

The Loons lost a back-and-forth game to the Lake County Captains (Guardians).

Second baseman Nico Perez hit a two-run home run for Great Lakes, his third of the series to go with 10 RBI in the last four games.

This was a planned piggyback outing for Loons ace Christian Zazueta after starting his first five games this season. He entered with two on and two outs in the fourth inning and stranded a pair of runners, then finished out the game. Zazueta struck out seven and walked none but also allowed three runs in his 4 1/3 innings, including a solo home run to take the loss.

Mike Sirota singled once in his five at-bats, extending his on-base streak to 23 straight games. His extended hot streak was chronicled on Thursday by Michael Avallone at MLB.com.

Class-A Ontario

The Tower Buzzers managed only four hits in a road loss to the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes. Emil Morales had two of them.

Brady Smith struck out nine in his start over 3 1/3 innings and allowed only one run, but got stuck with the tough-luck loss.

Ariona Complex League

Outfielders Brendan Tunink and Landyn Vidourek joined shortstop Kellon Lindsey to rehab in Arizona, giving the ACL Dodgers three position players from Ontario. Vidourek hit a two-run home run on Thursday in his first game since April 18, then homered again on Friday.

Tunink, who strained his hamstring on April 14, had two hits in his first game with Arizona on Thursday, then was 0-for-4 on Friday. Lindsey walked three times and stole a base on Friday and in his five games thus far in Arizona is 4-for-17 with a home run, double, and four walks.

Great Lakes catcher Gio Cueto has been out since early April, but he also joined the ACL Dodgers on rehab. On Friday, Cueto homered.

Friday scores

• Salt Lake 9, Oklahoma City 7 (10 innings)
• Arkansas 5, Tulsa 1 (Game 1)
• Tulsa 5, Arkansas 0 (Game 2)
• Lake County 8, Great Lakes 6
• Rancho Cucamonga 6, Ontario 0

Saturday schedule

• 2:05 p.m.: Tulsa (Adam Serwinowski) at Arkansas (Ryan Sloan)
• 3:35 p.m.: Great Lakes (Aidan Foeller) at Lake County (Jackson Humphries)
• 4:05 p.m.: Oklahoma City (TBA) vs. Salt Lake (TBA)
• 6:30 p.m.: Ontario (TBA) at Rancho Cucamonga (Derek Clark)

Jaylon Thompson writes about how a visit to a pitching facility in Georgia helped Daniel Lynch IV.

McLaughlin saw an avenue that could help Lynch. He uncovered that Lynch had his glove positioned lower throughout his throwing motion.

So as Lynch turned to throw the baseball, he wasn’t staying balanced through his delivery. It caused him to be erratic and lose his command.

And ultimately, that led to more walks and fewer strikeouts.

“His back was almost turned to the hitter when he was driving down the mound,” McLaughlin said. “And it would make him spin off and spin open. So we went back to an old move when he was at the University of Virginia where he got his glove higher in the air.”

Vahe Gregorian writes about how Bobby Witt Jr. is evolving into a leader.

“When you are getting into Year 3, 4 and 5 in the major leagues, at some point it’s your time,” Picollo said then. “Right now, Bobby, Vinnie, Maikel, it’s your time.”

Not that anyone wants Witt to be anything but himself. Or that it’s suddenly all about his vocal stylings.

It’s just that he’s got so much to offer, especially in terms of the diligence, unwavering process and stress on mental performance that animate his superb talents.

Controlling the controllables, as Witt likes to say.

Kevin O’Brien looks at what the Royals do in the wake of injuries to Cole Ragans and Carlos Estévez.

David Lesky recaps the series finale against Cleveland and Vinnie Pasquantino’s struggles with runners on base.

I will say that this does not make up for the struggles. He answered questions and criticized himself with language that would make Lucas Erceg blush after the game. He still is hitting just .194/.277/.366. He does now have five home runs and 18 RBI, which is getting closer to the sort of pace we saw from him last year, at least on the RBI front. And he’s hitting .302/.380/.628 since April 22, whic his another arbtirary day, but it’s the day he broke out of an 0 for 16 slump. But even in that stretch, he’s hitting .182 without an extra base hit with runners in scoring position. He’s hitting just 263 without an extra base hit with runners on period. He is RAKING with the bases empty.

No, that doesn’t mean he’s a garbage time hitter or anything like that. But he has struggled in the spot that you want your middle-of-the-order bat to succeed.

Anne Rogers writes about Salvador Perez’s relationship with his mother, Yilda.

This Sunday is Mother’s Day, but Perez tries to thank his mom every day for the work she did. Perez’s work ethic and passion are two of his greatest attributes. He has Yilda to thank for that.

“I don’t think you appreciate it until you start to grow up,” Perez said. “When you start to work for yourself or for your family, when things are hard, that’s when you realize that your mom did a pretty good job for you and that she was working hard. I try to thank her every day for the things she did for me. I realize it was hard for her.

“She’s definitely one of my inspirations. I’ve got my kids and my wife, too. But it’s like, ‘If she can do it, why can I not do it?’ She fought as hard as she could, so I can get through a lot, too. When it gets hard, just keep going. She’s one of my inspirations every day.”

Joel Goldberg writes about some of the amusing unscripted moments in recent post-game interviews.

Christian singer TobyMac will headline Faith Night at Kauffman Stadium.

Elliot Kalb at NBC Sports profiles Bobby Witt Jr. ahead of their Peacock broadcast.

Cubs pitcher Matthew Boyd will miss a month after knee surgery.

Blake Snell should make his season debut today.

The Diamondbacks call up top prospect Ryan Waldschmidt and designated outfielder Alek Thomas for assignment.

The Marlins have some catching depth.

This is turning into a solid rookie class.

Which teams could take out the Dodgers?

Who are some surprise contenders that could make a playoff run?

The Cubs could be looking at Mets pitcher Freddy Peralta.

MLB’s new TV deals have seen strong early season viewership.

Baseball America finds the origins of the injury rehab assignment in baseball. [$]

The NCAA men’s and women’s basketball tournaments will expand to 76 teams.

The sale of the Seahawks is receiving soft interest.

The owner of Dunkin’ Donuts may be going public.

The first playgrounds were for adults, not kids.

The Pentagon releases files on UFO sightings over the years.

Your song of the day is Sniff ‘n’ the Tears with Driver’s Seat.

The Yankees opened their series with the Brewers on a low-note, getting shutout by Jacob Misiorowski for six innings while Max Fried dropped his worst start of the season on the other side. Unfortunately, Spencer Jones’ MLB debut was overshadowed by the team at large struggling on Friday, collecting just three hits on the night. New York’s misfortune is the rest of the league’s opportunity though, so let’s see how the field fared.

Boston Red Sox (17-22) 2, Tampa Bay Rays (25-13) 0

The Rays were set up to capitalize and claim first place in the division back, but the Red Sox had other ideas. Connelly Early tossed seven innings without allowing a run, striking out eight batters and walking one with just four hits on the day. The Rays did get one chance in the third inning to strike, loading the bases with no outs on a pair of singles and a walk. Early got Ryan Vilade to strike out for the first out, and induced a 5-4-3 double play out of Junior Caminero to escape the jam.

Wilyer Abreu made the missed opportunity sting even more in the bottom half, hitting a solo home run to right field to put Boston on the board. Ceddanne Rafaela followed suit in the fourth, hitting one out to left to make it 2-0. No other Boston batter made it past second base, but they hardly needed to with Early dealing. Garrett Whitlock and Aroldis Chapman combined to make the eighth and ninth innings seamless, securing the win.

Toronto Blue Jays (17-21) 2, Los Angeles Angels (15-24) 0

The Jays got an ace performance of their own on Friday, riding Dylan Cease to seven scoreless as well. Cease one-upped Early, striking out 10 with no walks, though he did allow one more hit. The same couldn’t be said for Reid Detmers, who lasted only 3.2 innings for the Angels and coughed up the lead in the third. A leadoff single and a one-out walk came to bite him as Kazuma Okamoto singled home one run, and then Ernie Clement lifted a sacrifice fly to bring home the second run. The Angels bullpen did yeoman’s work covering 4.1 innings without incident, with just one hit allowed over that span, but there was no hope of cracking the Jays’ pitching staff this time around.

Other Games

Cleveland Guardians (21-19) 6, Minnesota Twins (16-23) 4: The Guardians put up a four-spot in the first inning to take a commanding lead, benefitting off of an error to score their first run before a sacrifice fly brought in a second and Travis Bazzana hit his first MLB homer to double the lead to 4-0. The game stayed quiet after that for a while until the Twins started a rally, getting on the board in the sixth with a Ryan Jeffers RBI single before scoring two in the seventh on a Byron Buxton two-run homer. Cleveland got some breathing room with runs in the seventh and eighth. The Twins got back-to-back hits to start the ninth, but a double-play cut the rally short despite scoring a run, Josh Bell striking out to end it right after.

Kansas City Royals (18-21) 4, Detroit Tigers (18-21) 3: The Tigers and Royals traded a run each in the second inning, but Detroit jumped ahead with a two-run sixth inning. A leadoff walk was nearly wasted after the next two Tigers made outs, but Wenceel Pérez doubled to center to drive them in and Spencer Torkelson doubled him in right after. Kansas City tied things up in the eighth thanks to a pair of RBI singles from Kyle Isbel and Maikel Garcia, and Isbel walked it off in the ninth with a single to left.

Seattle Mariners (19-20) 12, Chicago White Sox (17-21) 8: A back-and-forth affair saw the Mariners break away late. Munataka Murakami tied Aaron Judge with his 15th home run of the season to start the scoring, but a bases-loaded hit by pitch tied the game in the second inning. Luke Raley put Seattle up with a grand slam in the third, only for Chicago to tie it back up in the bottom of the third with a bases-clearing double from Colson Montgomery doing the heavy lifting.

Julio Rodríguez got the Mariners back on top with a solo shot in the fifth, but it was the seventh inning where they started to pull away as Raley launched another homer, this time a three-run shot. The eighth saw Josh Naylor get in on the action with a three-run blast of his own, making it 12-5, but Chicago got two back in the bottom half on a single from Jarred Kelenic and an RBI double from Tristan Peters before former Yankee Randal Grichuk led off the ninth with a homer. The rest of the White Sox went down in order to end the threat, but it was topsy-turvy from the get-go.

Chicago Cubs (27-12) 7, Texas Rangers (17-21) 1: Ben Brown has been in the bullpen all of 2026 up until he started on Friday, but he made a case to get more starts in the future as he pitched four no-hit innings. Kumar Rocker’s night began with a delay as he had to go change his undershirt thanks to the white sleeves he was showing, and the Cubs made him pay for the delay striking for a run in the first inning before adding two more in the fourth on a Seiya Suzuki homer. The Rangers got their lone run in the fifth on a Justin Foscue single, but the Cubs kept going adding an RBI ground-rule double from Pete Crow-Armstrong in the sixth before Michael Busch lined a bases-clearing double that made it a laugher.

MJ Melendez was thrust into a challenging situation last month. The struggling New York Mets faced the Los Angeles Dodgers on the road, amid what would become a 12-game losing streak. Seeking a spark, Melendez was plugged into the lineup and laced two doubles and notched an RBI against Shohei Ohtani. Though the Mets lost 8-2, Melendez has since been a reliable asset.

Melendez has been contributing in the heart of the order for the Mets, an unexpected development for the preseason playoff favorites. On Wednesday in Colorado, he added a triple, a walk, and a check-swing single. Keith Hernandez remarked after the lucky single, “When you’re hot, you’re hot,” on SNY.

The club lost eight more games after Melendez’s debut, but he has not been at fault. In just 16 games as DH and outfielder, the fifth-year player has blown away his career numbers, posting a 158 wRC+ and .912 OPS to lift a struggling lineup.

The question remains: can he put up numbers anywhere close to that for a sustained period? Injuries and poor offensive consistency have put the Mets in a deep hole in the standings despite an enormous payroll. Asking a reclamation project in Melendez to help carry the lineup is a tough ask, but he says he’s up for the challenge.

“It’s really cool to have that so-called pressure,” he told the media in late April. “I think that it’s something that you either love or you hate. I feel like I love that kind of thing.”

Melendez was drafted by the Royals in 2017 and ranked the No. 42 overall prospect by Baseball America upon his May 2022 debut. He was a league-average hitter as a rookie before declining the next two seasons. He spent most of 2025 in Triple-A before the Royals declined his option.

Getting another shot in the majors, Melendez has been the second luckiest hitter on the Mets so far this season; his .458 BABIP trails just Austin Slater’s .556, whos number is obviously enhanced by his mere 12 plate appearances. Melendez’s wOBA of .398 vs his xwOBA of .271 shows that somehow he keeps finding ways to produce, with the help of a lucky bounce here and there. Meanwhile, 13 of the 17 Mets who have registered at-bats this season have recorded the opposite results. The only other players overperforming their expected metrics are Ronny Mauricio and Jared Young, who are both on the injured list, and Slater in extremely limited playing time.

Melendez will likely regress at some point, but he remains a valuable depth piece for an injury-plagued team. Perhaps if Melendez comes back down to earth, the rest of the lineup will also regress to the mean. New York would gladly take some middle ground, given the deep hole they face.

Even if Melendez cannot sustain his current pace, a change of scenery and his motivation to prove himself after being let go by the Royals may help him remain a valuable and surprising contributor to the Mets roster.

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The Chicago Cubs are the hottest team in baseball, having won 10 consecutive games.

They are favored to extend their winning streak in Texas, but my Cubs vs. Rangers predictions see the home team keeping it close.

Let's dive deeper into my MLB picks for Saturday, May 9.

Who will win Cubs vs Rangers today: Rangers +1.5 (-135)

Jack Leiter has posted an xFIP of 3.44 and SIERA of 3.52, putting him in company with Joe Ryan, Landon Roupp, and Braxton Ashcraft among today's starters. Those arms have ERAs comfortably in the threes, yet Leiter sits at 5.44.

It's almost the opposite story for Chicago Cubs pitcher Edward Cabrera. His ERA sits at 3.27 despite a 4.21 xERA. He has allowed plenty of hard contact and ranks in the 11th percentile in barrel rate.

With both starters showing misleading surface stats — and the Cubs riding a 10-game winning streak — there is value in backing the Texas Rangers to keep it close.

COVERS INTEL: Cabrera ranks in the 37th percentile in expected batting average allowed.

Cubs vs Rangers Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-105)

Leiter has allowed 20 runs over his last five starts. While I expect him to earn better results moving forward than he has thus far, it's a stretch to suggest he'll completely slow a Cubs offense that leads the league in runs per game and on base percentage. 

The Rangers are also a threat to score several runs in this game. Their offense has posted some respectable numbers beneath the surface, ranking seventh in hard hit rate, 10th in fly ball rate, and 13th in wOBA against right-handed pitching over the last month.

They should cause problems for Cabrera.

Cubs vs Rangers odds

• Moneyline: Cubs -140 | Rangers +120
• Run line: Cubs -1.5 (+115) | Rangers +1.5 (-135)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)

Cubs vs Rangers trend

The Cubs have hit the game total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+10.05 units, 30% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Rangers.

How to watch Cubs vs Rangers and game info

Cubs vs Rangers latest injuries

Cubs vs Rangers weather

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