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The people have spoken and the first pitcher is off the board as Braylon Doughty is our No. 6 Cleveland Guardians prospect. Doughty won by just three votes with 35.5% of the vote, beating out Cooper Ingle (33.1%) and Khal Stephen (13.8%). He is making his CTC prospect rankings debut.

Doughty was Cleveland’s first round competitive balance pick in the 2024 MLB Draft out of Chaparral High School in Temecula, California, signing with Cleveland for a $2,569,200 bonus.

He made his pro debut skipping straight to full-season Single-A Lynchburg to begin 2025 and it was an impressive showing. Doughty made 22 starts, topping out with a season-long 5.2 innings pitched Aug. 1 when he struck out seven and allowed one run without a walk.

Limiting walks was Doughty’s specialty in 2025. He had two walks or fewer in all but one of his starts. Overall on the season, he struck out 99 batters while walking just 23 in 85.1 innings pitched. On the season, he had a 3.48 ERA and an even better 2.84 FIP.

Unfortunately, Doughty didn’t get an opportunity to participate in Lynchburg’s run to a Single-A championship in the Carolina League because he was tabled with right shoulder inflammation on Aug. 23 right before the end of the season. From everything I’ve read, the move was precautionary and he didn’t need any additional surgery or anything.

Doughty has high spin on his breaking pitches, with a slider and curveball that both grade as plus and the potential to have a great changeup as well. Despite just turning 20 years old, he’s already drawing comparisons to another spectacular Cleveland pitcher — Shane Bieber. That’s some high praise. Let’s hope he can prove scouts right as he continues to develop in 2026 where he’ll almost certainly begin the season at High-A Lake County.

Now, it’s time to determine who is number five in the Guardians’ loaded farm system! Your options are below:

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Juan Brito, 2B (Age 24)
2025 (CPX) 26 PA, .190/.346/.333, 1 HR, 0 SB, 11.5 BB%, 30.8 K%, 93 wRC+
2025 (AAA): 99 PA, .256/.357/.463, 3 HR, 4 SB, 13.1 BB%, 21.2 K%, 115 wRC+

Was lined up to make his MLB debut in 2025, but multiple injuries prevented the switch-hitter from getting his opportunity and it’s possible he could be passed up completely.

Juneiker Caceres, OF (Age 18)
2025 (CPX) 160 PA, .289/.419/.469, 3 HR, 5 SB, 16.9 BB%, 11.3 K%, 139 wRC+
2025 (A): 130 PA, .250/.331/.345, 1 HR, 2 SB, 6.9 BB%, 13.1 K%, 103 wRC+

Impressed at the complex league, then hit the ground running in a late season promotion to Single-A before running out of steam late in his age-17 season. Loaded with potential.

Jaison Chourio, OF (Age 20)
2025 (CPX) 27 PA, .261/.370/.304, 0 HR, 1 SB, 14.8 BB%, 37.0 K%, 95 wRC+
2025 (A+): 353 PA, .235/.380/.284, 2 HR, 9 SB, 18.7 BB%, 21.8 K%, 103 wRC+

Chourio was lining up to be Cleveland’s top prospect after a sensational 2024, but he was slowed in 2025 by a nagging shoulder injury and had a very average season. He’s looking to bounce back in 2026.

Cooper Ingle, C (Age 23)
2025 (AA) 403 PA, .273/.391/.443, 9 HR, 0 SB, 16.1 BB%, 17.4 K%, 148 wRC+
2025 (AAA) 107 PA, .207/.383/.329, 1 HR, 0 SB, 19.6 BB%, 16.7K%, 105 wRC+

Ingle has shown excellent offensive tendencies for a catcher. Will his defense and power be enough to earn an opportunity in Cleveland this year?

Jace LaViolette, OF (Age 22)
2025 (NCAA) 262 PA, .258/.427/.576, 18 HR, 7 SB, 21.8 BB%, 25.2K%, 120 wRC+

Cleveland’s first round pick in the 2025 MLB Draft, the 6-foot-6 LaViolette instantly becomes one of the top power hitting prospects in the system. Strikeouts and contact have been an issue, however.

Alfonsin Rosario, OF (Age 21)
2025 (A+) 354 PA, .268/.362/.490, 16 HR, 12 SB, 10.8 BB%, 25.1 K%, 139 wRC+
2025 (AA): 145 PA, .211/.303/.391, 5 HR, 2 SB, 10.3 BB%, 33.1 K%, 105 wRC+

One of Cleveland’s most impressive hitters in its minor league system during his stint at High-A Lake County as a 20-year-old. Rosario has a unique combination of speed and power, but will need to overcome his strikeouts.

Khal Stephen, RHP (Age 23)
w/ TOR 2025 (A) 7 GS, 39.1 IP, 2.06 ERA, 1.97 FIP, 31.4 K%, 4.6 BB%, 0.92 WHIP
w/ TOR 2025 (A+): 9 GS, 48.1 IP, 1.49 ERA, 2.70 FIP, 26.6 K%, 5.4 BB%, 0.85 WHIP
w/ TOR 2025 (AA): 1 GS, 4.0 IP, 6.35 ERA, 1.88 FIP, 11.1 K%, 5.6 BB%, 1.68 WHIP
2025 (AA): 4 GS, 11.1 IP, 9.00 ERA, 9.54 FIP, 21.9 K%, 3.9 BB%, 1.50 WHIP

Please vote below

While some level of frustration about 2025 remains, the Kansas City Royals are poised to secure back-to-back-to-back winning seasons immediately after tying the franchise record for most losses in a year. That comeback is impressive, especially considering how the Royals accomplished it.

Yes, the Royals signed some free agents to do so, but they’ve largely limited their spending and their long-term financial outlook is very good. Yes, they’ve made some efficient trades, improving at the margins and making use of some team depth to attempt to shore up areas of weaknesses. And yes, they’ve watched a couple young players blossom–chief among them the wunderkind Bobby Witt Jr.

The Royals are still searching for a difference maker or two, though. Unfortunately, their payroll (which has increased by a respectable $14 million per Cot’s Baseball Contracts) is probably maxed out. And more unfortunately, it doesn’t seem that the Royals are going to swing the big trade that they’re looking for, at least per Ken Rosenthal:

The Kansas City Royals are increasingly unlikely to land either of the two hitters they pursued in trades: the St. Louis Cardinals’ Brendan Donovan and Boston Red Sox’s Jarren Duran.Barring further moves, the Royals expect to rely heavily on offseason acquisitions Isaac Collins and Lane Thomas in their outfield, as well as rookie Jac Caglianone and holdover Kyle Isbel.

You can quibble on whether Donovan or Durran are worth the assets that would have taken to acquire them. But both are only 29, under control for multiple seasons, and would be huge improvements over what the Royals have right now. They would make the team better right now and in the future. 

Even so, there were other deals that could have been out there that the Royals should have been able to work out. There has been just one problem: the Royals don’t have a good enough farm system to leverage.

The last time the Royals wanted to take the next step, they had that farm system. That was in 2012, after a frustrating season that ended in a 72-90 record. Nevertheless, the Royals moved aggressively to better the club, leveraging top prospects Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi in a trade to acquire pitchers James Shields and Wade Davis. They improved by 14 games in 2013, narrowly missing the playoffs starting a three-year run as the best team in the American League.

This time around, they just don’t have anybody who can anchor a trade. Since 2020, Royals first round draft picks have lost huge portions of their trade value (Asa Lacy, Frank Mozzicato, Gavin Cross, Blake Mitchell), haven’t played an inning yet of pro ball (Sean Gamble, Josh Hammond), or made it to to the big leagues and have flopped hard (Jac Caglianone). Meanwhile, key high-upside draft picks in the second or third round have also lost significant value after their draft (Blake Wolters, Ben Kudrna, Hiro Wyatt). 

The result? A farm system which firmly rests in the bottom third of the league, if not one of the worst of the league. 

Before anybody claims that I’m being unfair here, I don’t at all blame Gamble or Hammond–a pair of high schoolers drafted seven months ago–for anything. Caglianone, as we all know, could be a monster as soon as this season. And the Royals should receive plenty of credit for selecting Carter Jensen and Noah Cameron in the 2021 MLB draft and developing them into players who had excellent debut seasons this year. 

Caveats and successes aside, the reason why the Royals couldn’t make an impact trade this year is that they simply couldn’t without trading established big league talent. If the Royals had a better farm system, I think we would have seen a big trade. They don’t, and we didn’t. Farm system rankings are somewhat overrated in and of themselves—the point is to win MLB games, not win MiLB talent arguments—but when push comes to shove, having talent to trade is how teams can take leaps forward. 

We looked at Astros hitter projections a couple of weeks ago and the natural follow up would be pitchers. However, I specifically waited on them because some projection systems had not released their projections yet. There are still some (like ZIPS) that are not universally available yet. However, there are now enough to get a good idea of what the industry as a whole thinks about the Astros rotation this year.

I should note a couple of things first. The main thing is that projection systems seem to do better with rate statistics like ERA, WHIP, K/9, and BB/9. They don’t do as well with innings, wins, strikeouts, and total walks. So, we are only looking at ERA today. It should also be noted (like we did with hitters) that it is Joe Espada’s job to marshal his resources to maximum advantage. That means choosing who gets to start, how often they start, and how deep into games he allows them to pitch. That will have more of an impact on counting numbers than ERA.

The second thing we should keep in mind is that projection systems are based primarily on batted ball statistics and ERA predictors like FIP, xERA, and SIERA. Those all based their numbers of the type of contact (and amount) a pitcher allows and usually they assume league average fielding and league average luck factors. Statistics like batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and left on base percent (LOB%) vary from year to year even with the same pitcher. Pitchers can control some of that by inducing weaker contact, more groundballs, or more pop flies, but there is a lot a ton of variance there as well. Astros pitchers seem to outpace the projections on a routine basis. Of course, we can look at that in the lab at another time as well.

Current Candidates

	Steamer	ATC	The Bat	OOPSY	B-ref	Aggregate
Hunter Brown	3.63	3.56	3.59	3.34	3.36	3.50
Mike Burrows	4.22	4.16	4.33	4.00	4.01	4.14
Tatsuya Imai	4.37	4.22	——	4.40	——	4.33
Ryan Weiss	4.31	4.38	4.40	4.35	——	4.36
Nate Pearson	4.32	4.54	4.75	4.00	4.85	4.49
Spencer Arighetti	4.55	4.64	4.83	4.34	4.45	4.56
Lance McCullers	4.38	4.59	4.61	4.45	5.11	4.63
Jason Alexander	4.30	4.51	5.14	4.71	4.45	4.62
Cristian Javier	4.96	4.81	4.84	4.80	4.28	4.74

You don’t have to be a math whiz to figure out the positives and negatives from the table above. I count nine starting pitchers there. Obviously, the max rotation the Astros will go with will be six. So, three of these guys will either be in the bullpen or in the minors. I should note that every projection system had Nate Pearson slated for the bullpen. He is on this list because the Astros have publicly said that he will be a candidate for the rotation coming out.

Once you get past Brown, you could put a blindfold on any of us and ask us to point at a name and we will come out with a similar pitcher in projected quality. Some of these are reasonable surprises. I think most observers are more hopeful that Javier and Imai will pitch better than their projections. I think most fans would be elated if McCullers managed to get close to this projection this year.

The rest are about what we would expect. The clear weakness is a lack of a number two pitcher. Framber Valdez routinely came in with ERAs of 3.50 or lower. He faded down the stretch last year and still came in under a four ERA. So, the math nerds at those various sites are telling us the Astros have not filled that particular role. That brings us to elephant in the room.

Potential additions

When we start talking additions we are looking at free agents and trades. There is quite literally an infinite possibility when it comes to trades, but the free agents are dwindling. There are two names coming to the forefront on both counts due to rumors circling Isaac Paredes and a potential reunion with a former Astros legend.

	Steamer	ATC	The Bat	OOPSY	B-Ref	Aggregate
Brayan Bello	4.39	4.32	4.38	4.32	3.85	4.25
Justin Verlander	4.44	4.47	4.64	4.32	4.28	4.43

Obviously, Bello is part of a rumored return for Paredes. It would likely be either Bello, Jarren Duran, or Wilyer Abreu. We could get into those specifics at another time, but a part of the calculus on Bello is that he came up with a 3.35 ERA last season in Boston. Those aforementioned ERA projectors all came in considerably higher than that. So, this is one of those push and pull situations where we can fall on one side or the other.

On the one hand, he does not projected to be any better in quality than the other Astro hurlers. One of the reasons why you make a trade is that it allows you to improve your team in some area. That can be through a player for player swap or financial considerations that allow you to spend elsewhere. Bello would not save you money and based on the numbers above it would not remarkably improve your prospects.

However, Brown is the only pitcher above that hurled more than 100 innings last season at the big league level. Arighetti’s elbow is being held together by chewing gum and bailing wire. We don’t know what Imai’s workload will be and Javier barely came back from TJ surgery last season. When we throw in McCullers’ frequent ailments we can see that durability does have value. The deciding factor will likely be whether the scientists in the pitching lab think they can unlock something in Bello. We won’t know that until a deal is made.

As far as Verlander is concerned, there are two primary positives and one negative. The negative is the same as Bello. His numbers do not present a considerable bump over what is there. However, he would be another arm that would give the Astros a track record of innings. Adding both pitchers would be impractical, so it would be one or the other depending on what happens with a theoretical Paredes deal.

The main advantage Verlander brings is leadership and public relations. He probably doesn’t increase your winning odds materially through his pure numbers, but his impact on the clubhouse would be a factor and he would be a revenue generator for the franchise. They would need to move around some money to make that work, so it is an open question as to whether that is getting the best bang for your buck. Of course, that is also another topic for another day.

The Mets' trade for White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr.felt like a bolt from the blue, but that's only because of the time it happened -- after 11 p.m. on Tuesday.

While most people were either sleeping or waiting for a resolution on free agent outfielder Cody Bellinger (whether he would wind up with the Yankees, the Mets, or one of two other unnamed teams),David Stearns struck for Robert.

New York had been after Robert since last season's trade deadline, when Chicago's asking price was exorbitant.

The cost wasn't high this time around, with the Mets securing two years of control of Robert in exchange for Luisangel Acuña and minor league pitcher Truman Pauley.

When it comes to the player the Mets are getting, it's one who is one of the best defensive center fielders in the sport, one of the fastest runners, and one who has elite bat speed.

The offense is something you can dream on. Robert has had two consecutive down seasons, but he showed serious flashes last summer when he slashed .297/.350/.468 in 140 plate appearances over 35 games from July 11 to Aug. 26 -- when his season ended due to a hamstring injury.

With the 28-year-old Robert now in tow, the Mets' starting offense could be complete.

Is it possible they go wild and sign Bellinger next? Sure.

However, that would not only block Carson Benge but likely add another $40 million or so to a payroll that is now up to $366.9 million. 

So, what's next?

Before New York landed Bo Bichette, they were considering a host of moves, including a signing of Framber Valdez.

Like Bichette, Valdez is attached to a qualifying offer, meaning the Mets will face additional draft pick penalties if they sign him. Despite that, they are open to it, Will Sammon of The Athletic reported a few days ago.

How that might change after dedicating at least $22 million to Robert remains to be seen.

But signing Valdez would be the cleanest and easiest way to add a needed top-of-the-rotation starter to the staff.

Valdez, 32, could theoretically be had on a three-or four-year deal for around $30 million annually.

The above type of contract would theoretically be in the wheelhouse of Stearns, who generally prefers to not go long on contracts for pitchers over 30.

Valdez has been a workhorse over the last four seasons, posting a 3.21 ERA and 1.15 WHIP across 767.2 innings. 

After leading the American League in innings pitched in 2022 (201.1 IP), Valdez hasn't really slowed down. He fired 198.0 innings in 2023, 176.1 innings in 2024, and 192.0 innings this past season.

If not Valdez, there's the trade market, where Milwaukee Brewers ace Freddy Peralta is still perhaps the top option.

Peralta, who is a year away from free agency but reportedly open to signing an extension, could possibly be acquired for one of the Mets' young starting pitchers (of the non-Nolan McLean variety) and one more impact prospect.

Is that a price New York would be willing to pay?

If so, will the Brewers prefer what the Mets would offer to what they might be able to pry from the interested Dodgers, who are collecting star players like Joey Chestnut eats hot dogs?

As unlikely as it might be with the Tigers aiming to contend in 2026, the Mets should also be on the phone with Detroit about pending free agent Tarik Skubal.

Because of how New York's offseason has unfolded, with them having yet to part with any of their top prospects, they could be in unique position to acquire Skubal if he can be had.

It would take a relative ton.

Perhaps two of the Mets' top pitching prospects, one of their best hitting prospects, and more. That's the cost it takes to acquire the best pitcher in baseball in his prime.

No matter which direction the Mets go when it comes to the addition to the top of their rotation, adding that desired pitcher feels inevitable.

It will likely be the finishing piece to an offseason that started out with uncomfortable upheaval, but seems destined to end right where Stearns thought it would -- with the Mets set up to be a 90-plus win team and legitimate World Series contender.

Bud Black and Wil Myers returned to the San Diego Padres organization last week and each will serve a role in helping the Padres reach the ultimate goal of winning a World Series. Black will serve in a front office role and Myers will serve in a coaching role at the lower levels of the organization. The unique perspective Black and Myers have from their own careers in MLB is part of what allows them to also have a unique perspective of the Padres according to AJ Cassavell of Padres.com. Black and Myers have been in San Diego for some of the down times, and the hope is that both will be back for the ultimate high.

Padres News:

• Randy Vasquez has been the center of attention in many of the Padres pitching rotation projections throughout the offseason. Some fans think he can be a key figure in the rotation, while others think he should remain a back of the rotation pitcher at best. Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune looks at what the 2026 season could look like for the right-hander.
• Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic says the Padres are still looking to make additions to their roster. Some of the free agents he lists as possible targets are pitchers Lucas Giolito, Nick Martinez or Justin Verlander. Rosenthal also stated the Padres are one of the many teams talking to the Milwaukee Brewers about trading for ace pitcher Freddy Peralta.

Baseball News:

• Centerfielders Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones were selected as the newest members of the National Baseball Hall of Fame by the baseball writers. The full results of the voting can be found here.
• The last big-name position player Cody Bellinger may be nearing a decision about where he will play in the 2026 season. That will likely not be in New York as a member of the Mets after the team traded for outfielder Luis Robert Jr. from the Chicago White Sox late Tuesday night.
• Evan Drellich of The Athletic is reporting the owners are “raging” at the free agent deal Kyle Tucker signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers and added that the owners will “100 percent” push for a salary cap. Drellich added that the Dodgers and Mets might be the only teams that would oppose a cap.

Good morning! The Baseball Hall of Fame will have two new members in a few months, as Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones were officially elected yesterday. The two Red Sox legends on the ballot, Dustin Pedroia and Manny Ramirez, failed to hit the 75% vote threshold.

Pedroia, though, is only in his second year on the ballot and saw his vote percentage jump from 11.9 to 20.7, which bodes well for his campaign going forward. But Manny Ramirez, one of the greatest hitters in baseball history, is off the ballot after 10 years, receiving just 38.8% of the votes.

Talk about what you want, remind yourself of just how great Manny was, and be good to one another.

Steele Hall was just taken 9th overall in the most recent MLB Draft, turned 18 years of age, and found himself ranked 7th on the 2026 Community Prospect Rankings at Red Reporter dot com. Pretty impressive six months there, kid!

After one of the tightest voting rounds in CPR history, we move now towards voting for spot #8. By now you know the new rules – there will be an embedded poll at the bottom of this post where you can cast your vote until the poll closes, but if that’s stripped out for you for some reason there will exist a link right here to take you to Google Forms to vote. Both of those will magically disappear when voting closes, though, so that internet chicanery cannot come in after the fact, dump votes, and change the already created history of the world.

On to the voting for CPR spot #8!

Chase Petty, RHP (23 years old)

2025 at a glance: 6.39 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 102/58 K/BB in 112.2 IP with AAA Louisville Bats (International League); 13 ER in 6.0 IP with Cincinnati Reds

Pros: Three plus pitches, including a fastball that flirts with 100 mph and 60-grade slider and cutter

Cons: Lit up in first cups of MLB coffee, and struggled in AAA after being sent back down

Petty has long been on the radar of every scout in the game, a former 1st round pick of the Minnesota Twins out of high school (whom the Reds had eyes on drafting back then, too). He was the centerpiece of the deal that sent Sonny Gray the other way, and he’s pitched his way onto multiple Top 100 overall prospect lists since.

Of course, he’s also pitched his way back off those same lists, with much of his work in 2025 doing just that. He was shelled at the big league level, though that’s with the caveat that he’d just turned 22 years old when that went down. The stuff’s still there, he’s just struggled to blend it all together for long enough stretches to show he can be an effective big league starter. The hope is that the lumps he took in 2025 paired with a mostly healthy offseason for the first time in a while will send him into 2026 both ready and with something to prove.

Tyson Lewis, SS (20 years old)

2025 at a glance: .340/.396/.532 (.928 OPS) in 207 PA with ACL Reds (Arizona Complex League); .268/.347/.417 (.765 OPS) in 144 PA with Class-A Daytona Tortugas (Florida State League)

Pros: Statcast darling with elite exit velocity and power with his left-handed swing; elite athleticism and plus speed gives him a chance to stick at SS long term, though a move off the position seems likely

Cons: Struck out at an alarming 35.4% rate with Daytona (and at an alarming 29.1% rate overall last year); .432 BABIP across all leagues last year screams ‘regression’

Tools. Tyson Lewis has just about every tool there is. He hit a ball over 119 mph in his pro debut, was the Gatorade Player of the Year in Nebraska prior to being a 2nd round pick (with an overslot bonus) by the Reds, and was originally committed to the University of Arkansas.

The upside here is obvious, as he’s got one of the loudest bats at any level. The swing and miss stuff, though, is something he’ll have to completely overhaul as he moves up the ladder, though getting out of the extremely pitcher-friendly confines of the FSL will perhaps help that some.

Aaron Watson, RHP (19 years old)

2025 at a glance: Drafted by the Cincinnati Reds in the 2nd round of the 2025 MLB Draft out of Trinity Christian Academy (FL); signed overslot $2.7 million bonus to forego commitment to the University of Florida

Pros: 6’5” frame; potential 60-grade slider; fastball that runs up to 96 mph from a three-quarter arm slot and already has a solid three-pitch mix with his change rotated in

Cons: Did not pitch professionally after being drafted, so he’s a complete unknown

One glimpse of Watson on the mound and you immediately think yep, I bet that guy can turn into a pretty dang good pitcher. He’s got an ideal frame to produce downhill offerings, and his fastball/slider mix is already something on which he can hang his hat.

However, command of all three of his pitches – specifically a very developmental changeup – will be what he needs to work on to begin to move quickly through the ranks. He possesses a good ‘feel’ at the moment in terms of what pitches to throw, which part of the zone to attack vs. which hitters, etc., but how well he can build in more deception with his offerings will be vital.

Jose Franco, RHP (25 years old)

2025 at a glance: 3.11 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 118/54 K/BB in 110.0 IP split between AA Chattanooga Lookouts (Southern League) and AAA Louisville Bats (International League)

Pros: Fastball that flirts with triple digits with ease

Cons: Secondary pitches need work, and that’s impacting his overall command (and ability to limit walks)

Franco turned 25 years old in November and earned a promotion to the 40-man roster of the Reds shortly thereafter due to his consistent performance across the upper levels of their farm system.

The Reds have a few hulks they’ve put on the mound in recent years, and Franco thoroughly qualifies. He’s listed at 6’2” and an oddly specific 257 lbs, and his size and frame allows him to tap into his excellent fastball velocity with ease. It’s the pitch he misses bats with the most, but how well he can differentiate his breaking pitches (and improve his changeup command) will determine whether or not he can a) get left-handed hitter out with aplomb and b) avoid ending up in the bullpen.

He’s been a late bloomer, in part due to injuries that cost him his entire 2023 season, and if he continues the path he’s been on since getting healthy there could be a whole lot more from him as early as 2026 for Cincinnati.

Carlos Jorge, OF (22 years old)

2025 at a glance: .251/.342/.355 with 6 HR, 40 SB in 469 PA with High-A Dayton Dragons (Midwest League)

Pros: Plus speed; former infielder moved to CF in 2023 and in 2025 looked like a natural there; plus speed; shaved 12.5% off K-rate from down 2024 season; 60-grade arm strength a weapon in CF

Cons: ISO declined for third straight year, this time precipitously; prone to extreme streakiness

If you threw out every other stop of Carlos Jorge’s pro career and just focused on the good ones, he’d already be ranked by now. The good parts of the best of his years have been quite tremendous, all told. He’s flashed great speed (40 steals in 2025), good pop for a small-ish CF (12 HR in 2023 and 2024; .483 SLG in the cavernous Florida State League in 2023), and the ability to play pretty elite CF defense (as recently as 2025).

However, he’s added some real clunkers in there, too. He hit just .220/.291/.394 with a K-rate over 31% at Dayton in 2024, and that came on the heels of hitting just .239/.277/.398 in 23 games once he reached Dayton at the end of 2023.

Maybe it’s just Dayton, where he was again in 2025 in a much better all-around year, even though his power dried up again. He’ll surely begin with AA Chattanooga of the Southern League in 2026, and at 22 (with his position in CF now settled) the former 2B might finally have a one-track shot to focus on his all around game in a new locale. After acing his move on defense, shaving off a ton of strikeouts, and bumping his walk rate back up over 11.1% (where it’s been for most of his career), perhaps 2026 will have a lot more in store for him.

Zach Maxwell, RHP (25 years old)

2025 at a glance: 4.50 ERA, 5.64 FIP, 13/4 K/BB in 10.0 IP with Cincinnati Reds; 4.17 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 59/32 K/BB in 49.2 IP with AAA Louisville Bats (International League)

Pros: Huge. Literally gigantic (6’6”, 275-ish lbs). Throws gas (100 mph+) with a devastating slider (70-grade). And he’s titanic.

Cons: Struggles with control (6.1 BB/9 across 172.1 IP in his minors career)

Maxwell, a former 6th round pick out of Georgia Tech, throws the ball up to 102 mph with his heater, and it’s clear that hitters have just about as little idea where it’s actually going to be as Maxwell himself. That’s the rub here, really, in that Big Sugar has the pure stuff to turn even the best hitters into guessers, and it comes down to whether they’ll guess wrong more often than Maxwell misses the zone in each and every PA.

If they swing, though, they’re likely going to miss, and that’s why he’s right in the mix for a spot in Cincinnati’s bullpen again in 2026 after making his debut there in 2025. He can be a bit wild if it’s effectively wild, and that’s a tightrope he’s been walking since his days back at North Paulding HS in Dallas, Georgia. When he’s locked in, though, the heater is backed up by an absolutely devastating slide piece, and that two-pitch mix – again, when he’s locked in – is good enough to be closer material. He’s just got to continue to refine his delivery.

Welcome back to the 2025-26 edition of Smash or Pass, in which we examine potential free agent and trade targets to determine whether the Red Sox should pursue them and what it would take to land them. Today we look at a vereran lefy reliever.

Who is he and where does he come from?

He’s Tim Mayza. He’s most recently a Philadelphia Phillie, and it was great that after a somewhat lengthy career, the 33-year-old Allentown, Pennsylvania native could assist his childhood team in a postseason run. Unfortunately, the team he was with for the first seven years of his career, the Blue Jays, made it to within an inning of being World Series champions. He’s now, according to Chris Cotillo, one of few subjects of lefty relief interest (lol) for the Red Sox following some other recent reports that, at 38, Justin Wilson may be calling it a career. That leaves the team with around 61 appearances to fill — and that’s not counting Brennan Bernardino’s absence as he was dealt to Colorado.

Is he any good?

If you’re asking if his warmup song is good, the answer is yes. I grew up listening to Chevelle in a “rebellious middle school student who wears Fox Racing” kind of way, so my ears perked up when I heard a newer Chevelle song blare over the Rogers Center speakers when he came into the game a few years ago.

If you’re asking the more important question about whether he’s a good pitcher: sort of.

After returning from a major shoulder injury suffered while with the Pirates (please hold any jokes about players returning from a recent shoulder injury piquing the team’s interest), Mayza looked much better in 2025 than he did in 2024, and improved his FIP from 5.21 to 3.03, but he was limited to just 16 2/3 innings. It will be interesting to see if he can return to his prior form earlier in the decade.

He’s always had a tough time keeping keeping hitters off the basepaths, as he’s never placed within the top twenty-five percentile in strikeouts and has struggled with walks at times, but he supplements that by being a purveyor of ground balls, placing near the very best in baseball in 2021. This generation of groundball pitchers is something that the Red Sox have been more drawn to in the Breslow age and even the tail end of the Bloom years.

TLDR; just give me his 2025 stats.

16 2/3 IP, 15 K, 5 BB, 3.78 ERA

Why would he be a good fit on the 2025 Red Sox?

The following are the lefties currently on the Red Sox 40-man roster who pitched in any sort of relief capacity last year, regardless of level, not named Aroldis Chapman: Payton Tolle, Kyle Harrison, Jovani Moran, and Tyler Samaniego. I’m not entirely comfortable with that list knowing that Payton Tolle and Kyle Harrison are far from finished products and that Patrick Sandoval is a huge question mark. Tim Mayza provides over 300 innings of Major League experience in exactly what the Red Sox desperately need. If you’re John Henry, you also love the low-risk financial terms a Mayza contract will likely cost. Plus, he’s an interesting case because he has huge extension (which Breslow loves) and his main pitch is a sinker, which Andrew Bailey no doubt would see as a fun project.

Why wouldn’t he be a good fit on the Red Sox?

Due to that recent injury, he’s so volatile. Mayza has never pitched more than 53 1/3 innings in his career. The Red Sox cannot afford too many injuries in the bullpen in 2026. And given that the Sox have a plethora of depth options, why give any high-leverage innings to a guy who doesn’t fit into the long term plans of the club when there are several younger arms to evaluate?

Show me a cool highlight.

Here he is serving a 94 mile-per-hour sinker to Shohei Ohtani, who promptly caught air with the swing.

Smash or pass?

I need to pass here, and it’s not any indictment on how good I think Mayza may be this year, because it’s likely that with a repaired shoulder, he might be a viable reliever if used in a 7th inning role. But his velocity isn’t what the Red Sox usually look for. And while that isn’t an immediate disqualifier, the inconsistencies, including being less than 24 months from an ERA over 6, would lead one to want lower-risk reclamation projects. But don’t be shocked if Mayza, or a player with similar experience and low price tag, ends up on the Opening Day roster.

Baltimore’s aggressive approach in free agency has left me wanting more. While the majority of Birdland remains focused on Framber Valdez, my attention has drifted to the outfield. The Orioles landed a true impact bat by inking first baseman Pete Alonso to a five year deal, but they also expect big things from left fielder Taylor Ward.

Ward posted a 116 OPS+ last season while tallying 36 homers over 157 games. The righty may not pack the same punch as Alonso, but 36 long balls are nothing to sneeze at. The O’s should gain at least some type of power from a healthy Tyler O’Neill, and Heston Kjerstad remains a wild card after a lost 2025 season.

Dylan Beavers’ stock is on the rise, and the 24-year-old will carry PPI eligibility into his rookie season. There’s plenty of power potential between Ward, O’Neill, Kjerstad and Beavers, but none of those guys play center field.

Colton Cowser started 45 games in center last season. Cowser battled multiple injuries while posting a .196/.269/.385 slash line during his sophomore campaign. The Milk Man played left field for a majority of his rookie season, but he inherited center field when the Birds dealt Cedric Mullins at the 2025 trade deadline.

Sliding over to center appeared to be a natural path for Cowser. The Sam Houston State product looked the part when called upon and featured a stronger arm than Mullins. Unfortunately, the transition went a little bumpier than it would have on paper.

Cowser missed two early months with a broken thumb, and he played through broken ribs in the second half. Former skipper Tony Mansolino shied away from immediately slotting in Cowser as the daily center fielder. When asked, Mansolino said he wanted to avoid placing extra pressure on the outfielder as he searched for success at the plate.

Cowser missed time in August with a concussion, but the O’s cut him loose in center by the end of the month. Mansolino provided an honest assessment of his play during a series against Boston.

“I was probably low man on him in center field two weeks ago, and I told him that,” Mansolino said. I’ve been very pleasantly surprised with how he’s been playing in center field.”

“It’s a longer, lankier body,” the interim manager added. “He’s covering ground. The metrics like him… I feel like he’s proving me wrong right now and I really, really like that.”

When asked directly about Cowser’s strong arm, Mansolino said he was “very unpolished with his throwing arm” when he arrived in Baltimore. Mansolino said he had improved in his two years with the big league club, but added that “we need him to improve more.”

Mansolino is no longer with the team, but his words provided some insight into how the organization viewed Cowser as a center fielder last season. It’s easy to attribute some offensive struggles to broken ribs and inconsistent playing time, but these marks address Cowser’s profile as a defender.

Cowser must have passed his audition over the final two months of the season, because the Orioles did not acquire a new starting center fielder. It does not appear that Baltimore ever seriously considered Cody Bellinger, and the Birds watched Mullins sign a one-year deal with the Tampa Bay Rays.

Mike Elias added depth to the position by signing Leody Taveras to a one-year deal early in the offseason. Taveras is a career .236/.287/.365 over six seasons. He patrolled center field for Texas from 2020-2024, but the Rangers designated him for assignment last May. Taveras made 28 appearances for the Mariners while hitting .174/.198/.272. Seattle outrighted him to Triple-A, and he elected free agency at the end of the season.

Taveras was a solid contributor for the 2023 World Champs, but he would need a real bounceback season to justify a spot on a playoff contender’s roster. Unfortunately, he’s the only other player on the 26-man with significant experience in center field. Beavers made nine appearances in center for Norfolk prior to his late-season promotion after making 26 with the Tides in 2024.

Cowser absolutely has the talent to grab the starting center fielder job and hold it all year. However, the Orioles have traded optimism for aggression this offseason. Are they content hoping that Cowser stays healthy while taking a step forward at the plate?

Former first-round pick Enrique Bradfield Jr. profiles as a major-league ready center fielder, but injuries slowed a promotion to Triple-A last season. Bradfield snuck in 15 games with Norfolk before shining in the Arizona Fall League. His advanced defense makes him a serviceable replacement in a pinch, but the Orioles likely want Bradfield to get an extended look at Triple-A pitching.

MLB Pipeline lists Bradfield as Baltimore’s fourth best prospect. He should find his way to Baltimore at some point next season, and the speedy outfielder has the potential to stick around. Bradfield’s presence may serve as a deterrent from inking a big fish like Bellinger, but it’s not like Coby Mayo prevented the Alonso signing. Harrison Bader remains available on the open market, and there’s always a trade candidate like Colorado’s Brenton Doyle.

At this point, Baltimore’s inactivity appears to represent a vote of confidence for Cowser as its full time center fielder. That feels like a respectable Plan A, but it’s worth monitoring alternatives as spring training inches closer.

Not a long one here, but while y’all were celebrating Andruw Jones’ election to the Hall of Fame, the Mets traded for Luis Robert Jr. That completed a years-long flirtation between the White Sox and literally anyone even remotely interested in Robert’s services.

In the end, though, all the White Sox got were Luisangel Acuña and a 12th-round overslot signee arm from last year’s draft that registers as a fringy prospect at best. Not to denigrate Ronald Acuña Jr.’s younger brother too much, but Luisangel looks like an all-glove utility infielder based on his 200ish PAs of MLB exposure thus far, and a big chunk of his defensive value to date came in a cup of coffee in 2024 as he posted +0 FRV in about two months of play last year.

In the end, the White Sox probably rue not trading Robert after his resurgent 2023 season (4.9 fWAR). I guess trading him after his 1.3 fWAR 2025 is better than after his 0.6 fWAR 2024… maaaaybeeee… considering that they’re trading just one year of control now versus two had they traded him earlier. (Robert has a club option for 2027, but at $20 million, it’s not clear that it’ll be exercised, especially since the buyout is just $2 million.)

You could argue that the White Sox didn’t bungle much aside from not moving him after 2023, as Robert has been feeble enough at the dish since that trading him post-2024 versus post-2025 doesn’t really matter. But, I’ll leave those specifics to you.

MLB Trade Rumors: The New York Mets are acquiring outfielder Luis Robert, Jr. from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for infielder Luisangel Acuna and pitcher Truman Pauley, per multiple reports.

The White Sox have been looking to move the 28 year old Robert for some time. He appeared to be a burgeoning star after finishing second in the Rookie of the Year voting in 2020, and then combining for 5.9 bWAR in just 166 games from 2021-22, missing significant time each year due to injury.

2023 seemed like a breakout year for Robert, as he slashed .264/.315/.542 and put up a 5.3 bWAR, finishing 12th in the MVP voting for a White Sox team that lost 101 games. Over the past two seasons, however, he has missed significant time while not hitting well, putting up a .223/.288/.372 slash line in 210 games.

The White Sox opted to pick up his $20 million option for 2026, a move that seemed questionable at the time. It ended up paying off, although the package they are getting back isn’t that exciting.

Most notably for us here at the LSofB is the inclusion of Luisangel Acuna, the former Ranger prospect who was sent to the Mets in 2023 for Max Scherzer. Acuna was impressive in a limited stint when he made his major league debut late in 2024, but slashed just .234/.293/.274 in 193 plate appearances in the majors over 93 games, and .303/.347/.385 in the minors.

Weirdly, considering he didn’t homer in 315 plate appearances between AAA and the majors in 2025, Acuna has been hitting bombs in the Venezuelan Winter League this winter, hitting 8 homers in 174 plate appearances, including four in one game.

Acuna is out of options this year, meaning he would either have to stick in the big leagues with New York as a utility guy in 2026 or be exposed to waivers. The rebuilding White Sox can give him a roster spot and opportunity it was going to much harder for him to get in New York.

Pauley was the Mets’ 12th round pick out of Harvard in 2025, getting a $397,500 bonus, $247,500 above what a player not picked in the first ten rounds can receive without it counting against a team’s bonus pool, and the third highest bonus received by a 12th rounder last year. He is the second minor league pitcher from Harvard traded in the last week, joining Chris Clark, who was part of the three team deal that sent Josh Lowe to Anaheim.

Meet the Mets

The Mets are reportedly still interested in signing Framber Valdez despite the draft pick penalties they would incur.

John Harper put out an offseason report card for the Mets, including the blockbuster Bo Bichette deal.

The Mets have discussed the possibility of retiring Carlos Beltrán’s number 15, but are struggling to find time for it this season.

Former Met Carlos Beltrán finally got elected into the Hall of Fame in his fourth year on the ballot.

The Mets released a video from the moment Beltrán found out the good news.

With his induction, Beltrán has solidified his place among the all-time great Mets.

Plenty around the Mets organization offered their congratulations to Beltrán, including Steve and Alex Cohen, David Stearns, and Francisco Lindor.

In addition, multiple former teammates and managers of Beltrán sent their congratulations, including David Wright, Carlos Delgado, and fellow Hall of Famer Pedro Martínez.

Anthony DiComo broke down everything that Beltran’s election means, both on an individual level and on a greater historical level.

David Wright got 14.8% percent of the votes in this year’s Hall of Fame balloting, nearly doubling last years 8.1% total.

MLB.com revealed their top ten third base prospects, and a Met prospect claimed second place on the list.

The Mets made a major trade, sending infielder Luisangel Acuña and prospect Truman Pauley to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for outfielder Luis Robert Jr. They’re taking on his entire salary this year and either the option or buyout for 2027.

Around the National League East

The Marlins acquired right-handed pitcher Bradley Blalock in a trade with the Colorado Rockies.

In addition to Beltrán, former Brave Andruw Jones also got elected to the Hall of Fame.

Around Major League Baseball

Joel Sherman explained his Hall of Fame ballot this year.

Ken Rosenthal put out more offseason notes, including some about how a potential lockout isn’t affecting the free agency market.

The Orioles revealed their new on-field alternate caps for the 2026 season.

Pitcher Bryce Miller agreed to a one year deal with the Mariners to avoid arbitration.

Part of the Cubs path to success next season is a bounce back from Shota Imanaga, who will have to focus on some improvements to his game to make it happen.

An ownership source told Evan Drellich that it’s “a 100 percent certainty” that owners will push for a salary cap in the next collective bargaining agreement.

The BBWAA released the full vote tally from this year’s Hall of Fame balloting.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

Thomas Henderson wrote about how, after the Bichette signing, one major hole in the Mets offense remains.

A Pod of Their Own is back with another episode.

Steve Sypa’s ranking of Mets prospects continued, with Jonathan Santucci coming in at twelfth on the list.

Yours truly wrote a primer on Bo Bichette for the uninitiated.

This Date in Mets History

Steve Phillips completed a three-way trade for the Mets that resulted in no one winning.