Batting order alone doesn’t dictate a team’s fortune, but it does make a difference. This is especially so in short series, where even the tiniest edges and flaws are magnified. And no place in the lineup matters more than the top spot. Suffice it to say that Aaron Boone and the Yankees faced an extremely important decision when choosing the leadoff man for Game 3 with the season on the line.

So why in the world did they land on Trent Grisham? 

To state the obvious, Grisham did not have a good year in any shape or form. He had a .308 OBP. His wRC+ was 98. And these numbers are what he recorded before landing on the IL at the start of September with a strained hammy. To his credit, Grisham did record two hits during the party against the dregs of the Red Sox bullpen in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series, but he was a non-factor in Games 1 and 2 of the Division Series. This isn’t the resume of someone to whom you’d like to entrust the leadoff spot in an elimination game . And yet, that’s precisely what the Yankees did.

Of course, it’s easy as an armchair manager to fall into the trap of hindsight. It would be wrong of me to point to Grisham’s 0-for-5, three-strikeout night and say, “I told you so.” But that’s not what I’m going to argue. My point is that hitting Grisham first was the wrong call, even if it had worked out, because the decision-making process had a fatal flaw — one that explains so much about this current era of Yankees baseball. 

That flaw is this: the Yankees’ way of evaluating players has become far too rigid. Once they make up their mind about a player’s true talent, they will adhere to it adamantly, even if the on-field results suggest that something is wrong. It takes a mountain of evidence to pile up for them to consider recalibrating their view of that player, and by the time that happens, the damage has already been done.

Trent Grisham is but the latest example. When asked postgame whether he regretted placing Grisham in the leadoff spot, Aaron Boone had this to offer:  

“No. I mean, look, obviously, we really struggled to score runs in the first two games, and I was pretty convicted on trying to find a way to be able to get Benny a chance to come up with runners on or be in a position to do that more often tonight…it’s a decision I made to try and create a little bit of traffic, and obviously it didn’t work. But you’re going to live with that.”

I get wanting to give Ben Rice more chances to hit with men on base. But even if that made sense, Grisham was not the answer. The man isn’t a high-OBP guy. Not counting 2020, his career high over a full season is the .348 mark he posted last year; in all other years he’s failed to reach .330. He’s a high-walk guy, I’ll give him that, but his abysmal batting averages have generally dragged his OBP down to unremarkable levels. To wit: Grisham’s career walk rate is a robust 12.1 percent, but his career OBP is a pedestrian .319.

Boone’s reasoning only makes sense if you assume that Grisham’s superb 2025 represented a new baseline for him, and that version of him was still somewhere within him, despite his subpar 2026 numbers and his late-season injury. It seems, in short, that Boone and the Yankees were clinging to the best version of Grisham in their minds, a version detached from reality.

When viewed in this way, the Grisham decision turns from an isolated blunder to the latest case of a widespread issue. Recall how the Yankees kept running Austin Wells out until June, despite him hitting for a 26 wRC+ for the entire month of May. The team only took action when Wells went to them, suggesting that they might have been unaware that something was ailing Wells if he hadn’t.

I don’t think it’s too farfetched to theorize that they viewed Wells’ disastrous offensive performance as merely a bad slump, and that they were planning on simply running him out there until he experienced positive regression, without making any inquiries into his health. The Yankees had an idea of how Austin Wells was supposed to hit, and when the on-field results weren’t there, they assumed that their idea of Wells would eventually translate to reality, rather than readjusting their evaluation of Wells given recent results.

Wells’ case is reminiscent of how the Yankees handled Anthony Rizzo’s concussion in 2023. It took 46 games of Rizzo hitting .172/.271/.225 for the Yankees to do anything, and even then, Rizzo had to go to the team, not the other way around. And this goes beyond how the Yankees have mismanaged injuries; in 2024, we saw them keep trotting out Alex Verdugo in left field when it was clear by mid-July that it wasn’t working out. In 2025, they stubbornly kept on using Devin Williams in high-leverage situations, a crucial factor in them losing the division race. Then there’s the ongoing shortstop question, with the Yankees being stubborn at various points about both Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Anthony Volpe’s abilities. Time and time again, the Yankees of recent years have shown a reluctance to change their minds about their own players.

Admittedly, there is something to be said for not overreacting to small sample sizes. Even superstars can have bad weeks and months; look at how Pete Crow-Armstrong and Fernando Tatis Jr. started their respective years, compared to the numbers they finished with. Closer to home in 2024, Aaron Judge followed an awful April with a preposterous .352/.488/.777 triple slash with 52 homers in 127 games as he won MVP. Making rash, drastic changes based on the tiniest fluctuations in performance is not a winning formula by any means.

However, there needs to be a balance. Teams can, and should, try to constantly update their understanding of players’ abilities based on new data, while keeping in mind that small sample size caveats apply. Right now, the Yankees’ modus operandi appears as though it’s set in stone. If that’s due to a philosophical stance about trying not to be influenced by granular data points, then that stance needs to be relaxed. And if that’s due to complacency and hubris, then I’d like to remind them that it’s been 17 years since their last title. Something needs to change.

On Friday morning, a picture was posted to Instagram from Garrett Whitlock’s wife, Jordan, showing an offseason beach picture of Garrett, overlooking the beach, with the hashtag #thriving. Less than notable, living his best life. Except for, you know, the walking boot that Whitlock was wearing.

We learned later on Friday from Gabrielle Starr that Whitlock had been pitching with “a fractured right tibia that was not properly diagnosed until after the Red Sox were eliminated from the postseason last week, the 30-year-old reliever told the Herald on Friday.”

This season, we also had Garrett Crochet’s shoulder and lat soreness that lingered from late April into September. We had Roman Anthony’s hand/wrist injury which, as Matt Gross outlined in great detail, was a wrist sprain (day-to-day), and then a minimum IL stint, which was actually a ligament in his ring finger for a bit more than a minimum IL stint, which was also a sprained right hand/wrist progressing slower than expected, to not swinging a bat a month later, to getting sent to Fort Myers which may or may not have been to send a message, to missing nearly four months of MLB game action.

During Monday’s press conference, when asked about why Anthony did not get any additional imaging after early July, Breslow pushed back asking why they would need to do that if the player hadn’t asked for it.

Good for Garrett Whitlock pitching through his injury to the tune of a 0.00 ERA in September, but perhaps this team’s medical staff needs to be a little bit more proactive when it comes to identifying injuries and not just trusting the player that “they’re fine.”

Discuss this, and whatever else you have on your mind about baseball in October in the comments, and be good to each other.

The numbers from last year’s National League Championship Series speak for themselves.

Runs: Dodgers 15, Brewers 4

Hits: Dodgers 32, Brewers 14

Home runs: Dodgers 6, Brewers 1

Innings led: Dodgers 26, Brewers 1

Wins: Dodgers 4, Brewers 0

“They were utterly embarrassed last year,” a rival scout said of the Brewers this week while reflecting on the Dodgers’ pennant-sealing NLCS sweep last October. “They had the best record in the National League, and they just got their a– handed to them.”

Now, 12 months later, they will have a chance for redemption.

On Sunday, the Dodgers will travel to Milwaukee again to open a second straight NLCS between the teams.

In many ways, this year’s matchup is being played against a similar backdrop as a year ago.

The Brewers are the higher-seeded team and hold home-field advantage, coming off a 103-win campaign in which they maximized their low-payroll roster. 

The Dodgers, however, are the clear-cut favorites, with a high-priced and star-studded core trying to add to their modern-day dynasty.

Thus, this week, the California Post spoke to two rival NL scouts to ask if this year’s series could play out differently.

The short answer: Yes, with both evaluators seeing a pathway for the Brewers to pull off a payback-minded upset.

“It just feels like a different team [this year],” Scout 1 said.

“I think a big part of this entire season for them is the redemption factor,” Scout 2 added.

Ahead of Game 1 on Sunday night in Milwaukee, here are the factors that could decide who reaches the World Series:

The Miz-ing Piece

Jacob Misiorowski was part of the Brewers’ playoff push last year. He even threw five innings of tantalizing bulk relief in a nine-strikeout effort during Game 3.

This year, though, he represents that biggest difference between this Brewers squad and those of failed Octobers past.

The breakout 24-year-old star is the presumptive NL Cy Young Award winner. He is expected to start Game 1 opposite Tarik Skubal. And if Milwaukee is to challenge the Dodgers, it’s likely to begin with a couple strong outings from him.

“It’s elite stuff,” Scout 1 said, stating the obvious of a 6-foot-7 right-hander with a 105 mph fastball.

But …

“The Dodgers know how to take at-bats against elite pitching,” he added.

Indeed, the main question will be whether the Dodgers can do to Misiorowski what they did to Chris Sale in the NL Division Series, driving up his pitch count and pouncing on rare mistakes.

“They’re gonna step into that box and just say, ‘We probably aren’t going to beat this guy, but we just need to get him out of the ballgame as early as possible,’” Scout 2 said. “They could just wear him down, fouling pitches off, taking pitches.”

Misiorowski faced a similar grind in the NLDS, when he needed 88 pitches just to get through four innings of two-run ball against the Padres.

But, his track record against the Dodgers is nonetheless promising. In addition to last year’s NLCS appearance, he has a pair of six-inning, one-run starts against them in the last two regular seasons, combining for 18 strikeouts in those two wins.

“I absolutely wouldn’t be shocked if he pitched a two-hitter, struck out 11 and the Brewers win 3-1 that first game,” Scout 1 said. “But if he doesn’t get out of the third because he’s thrown 65 pitches, [I’m not] going to be shocked, [either].”

Another year wiser

The real question in this NLCS is whether the Brewers can hit Dodgers pitching, after they batted a stunning .118 in last year’s matchup.

This October, Milwaukee’s lineup is roughly the same but also notably different.

Jackson Chourio has graduated from young talent (who was also battling an injury last October) to bona fide star. Brice Turang and William Contreras are another year older and more experienced. And others like Jake Bauers and Garrett Mitchell have emerged as dependable complementary pieces. Even former MVP Christian Yelich, coming off a career-worst regular season, showed signs of renewed life in the NLDS.

To Scout 1, it has made the Brewers reminiscent of another current contender that had to grow from repeated playoff setbacks.

“I think that they’re like the Dodgers, when the Dodgers were a lot younger,” he said. “They grind out at-bats. They’re hard [to pitch to]. Obviously not as talented from one to nine … but they have the same kind of mentality.”

Indeed, the Brewers were best in MLB this season in batting average (.258), on-base-percentage (.341), walk rate (10.6%) and chase rate (a league-low 26.6%). Though they hit the second-fewest homers in the majors, they scored the second-most runs.

“To beat a team like the Dodgers, I think they’re going to have to work counts, [make] no easy outs,” Scout 1 added. “You might still not get a run off of Skubal, but if you can get him out of the game in the sixth inning, and you get to the bullpen, you’re in a tight game.”

The Brewers, of course, failed to do that last year. 

But, as Scout 2 noted, their pitching staff — which also includes standout rookie starter Logan Henderson (11-3, 2.47 ERA) and a deep bullpen that ranked third in reliever ERA (3.40) — may be better positioned to put their own clamps down on what’s been a homer-reliant Dodgers offense.

“You need to be able to manufacture runs, so I would be more concerned about the [Dodgers’] approach, where you’re relying on the long ball,” Scout 2 said.

Echoed Scout 1, while referencing the Dodgers’ NLDS against the Braves: “The Braves kind of [kept games close]. They just didn’t get the big hit … So it’ll be the same kind of principle, but I think the Brewers are better at it than the Braves are. It just feels like they’ve been there.”

No Sho’ thing

One other key difference in this year’s NLCS: The reigning series MVP is nowhere near his normal self.

Unlike last year, Shohei Ohtani will not pitch for the Dodgers amid ongoing right arm and left knee injuries. But the bigger problem has been the four-time MVP’s slumping bat, with Ohtani having failed to hit a home run since Aug. 18 and coming off an underwhelming 2-for-13 showing in the NLDS.

The Dodgers were able to compensate for that in their defeat of the Braves. Other stars like Max Muncy (three home runs), Freddie Freeman (two home runs) and even the recently resurgent Kyle Tucker (5-for-15) helped pick up the slack.

Still, at some point, Ohtani’s lack of production could threaten to trip them up.

“If you don’t have your legs, then you look like he looks,” Scout 1 said. “There’s times when he’s healthy, you throw him a mistake and he’s fooled, but it’s in the zone and he can still hit it 400 feet because he’s healthy. But he’s not doing that right now. He can’t get his legs under him. He just doesn’t look healthy to me.”

Scout 2 concurred, noting the mechanical disconnect Ohtani’s injuries seem to be causing.

“He’s still producing bat speed,” Scout 2 said. “But the effort that it’s taking him right now to get there, that’s what’s holding him back.”

It was just one more reason why both scouts were bullish on the Brewers’ chances.

They thought Milwaukee’s lineup is better equipped to handle Dodgers pitching than last year. That the combination of Misiorowski, Henderson and a deep and talented bullpen could frustrate LA’s own offense. And that in a series likely to be full of tight, low-scoring games, the Brewers’ ability to do the little things could tip the scales.

“Would I be shocked if they got swept? No, because you’re, they’re going to face four Cy Young Award [contenders],” Scout 1 said. “But if the Brewers get one of those games at home to start the series, I think they win in six.”

“They got to win one of the first two games,” Scout 2 agreed. “Then they got to come to Dodger Stadium and they got to win a three-game series, which they’re more than capable of doing. So they win a three-game series at Dodger Stadium, they go back and they close it out in Game 6 at home.”

Baseball postseason, for all of its unpredictability, has brought us the meeting of the two best teams in the sport to determine the National League representative in the World Series. Ahead of last season’s NLCS, the angle of David versus Goliath was heavily played in virtually any analysis—it didn’t help the more centered angle that the Dodgers steamrolled the Brewers on their way to a sweep. This time around it might not be that simple.

The similarities are evident, with the Brewers, yet again, having home-field advantage as a team that better maximized its skill set in the regular season, all while the Dodgers remain the favorites to advance, as was the case last season. Having said that, foolish are those who project a similar imbalance to that of the previous NLCS—the expectation of a more tightly contested series goes through pitching.

It may appear like a small factor, but the fact that both teams won their Division Series in four games means that Pat Murphy and Dave Roberts can line up their pitching in the ideal way for this Championship Series. And pitching is the great equalizer here, as both teams are stacked in that department and neither offense is currently hot enough to the point of putting into question the likelihood of a series dominated by elite pitching.

For all the talent on the mound for the Dodgers, the odds-on favorite to win the NL Cy Young pitches on the other side in Jacob Misiorowski. He is joined by the rookie Logan Henderson at the front end of a pitching staff tied with the Dodgers for the second-highest ERA+ in baseball. Last year’s Brewers ace, Freddy Peralta, was good, not great, in the series against Los Angeles, and that applied to several key Brewers pitchers in order for the Dodgers to sweep the series in four without major offensive explosions.

With starting pitching on both sides able to dominate, the Dodgers have an advantage from last season’s team in that the bullpen brings a much greater sense of reliability, not only in depth but also in the backend. We probably get the sense most fans will watch Edwin Díaz and Tanner Scott, waiting for them to fail all the way until the hypothetical final out of the World Series—but they’ve done enough to earn Dave Roberts’ trust, and the plethora of options behind them ready for a high-leverage spot if things go south isn’t to be ignored.

Such emphasis on pitching is a must from the Brewers side because offensively, despite Jake Bauers’ breakout campaign at first, the Dodgers still retain a heavy advantage, one that might even be currently underplayed ahead of the series. With little to no action from some of its top hitters, the Dodgers weren’t brilliant, but they still got theirs in key spots against the feisty Braves. Last postseason, the Dodgers offense wasn’t bombastic against Milwaukee, but it did enough to capitalize on strong pitching, while the Brewers’ attack was nowhere to be found against elite Dodger starting pitching.

Second to last in regular-season homers and top five in stolen bases, the Brewers’ offense’s best course of action to put a dent in Dodger pitching is through generating action on the basepaths — putting the bat on the ball and pressuring a defense that has vulnerabilities (I won’t name any names — Teoscar Hernández, cough, cough). It’s nearly unfathomable to imagine Blake Snell or Tyler Glasnow escaping a five-walk outing with just one run against the Brewers like they did facing the Braves.

All season long, the National League has clearly proven to be the superior league. It’s only fitting that the winner of the NLCS, whoever that is, will enter the Fall Classic as the favorite to win it all — the Dodgers in pursuit of a threepeat and the Brewers in search of their first title.

The Colorado Rockies didn’t give us much to celebrate in 2026, and with October baseball happening elsewhere, I’ve been relegated to staring at Rockies players’ Baseball Savant pages and rewatching old game footage.

Since I’ve already spent an unreasonable amount of time doing exactly that, I figured we might as well hand out a few awards.

Statcast measures just about everything imaginable on a baseball field, from bat speed and exit velocity to sprint speed and pitch velocity. Those numbers don’t always tell the whole story, but they can reveal things about players that traditional statistics might miss.

These aren’t MVPs, Silver Sluggers, or Gold Gloves. Think less Cooperstown, more Dundies.

We’re simply recognizing some of the more interesting things Rockies players did in 2026. Only performances in a Colorado uniform count, with a minimum of 100 competitive swings for average bat speed and 100 tracked batted balls for average exit velocity. Take the measurements for what you will.

Without further ceremony to stand on, let’s dive in.

Batting

Fastest Bat: Sterlin Thompson (75.4 mph)

Thompson averaged 75.4 mph across 119 competitive swings in his brief major-league stint, narrowly beating Hunter Goodman (75.0) and Mickey Moniak (74.3). With MLB hitters averaging roughly 72 mph, Thompson brought some serious bat speed to the plate.

Highest Average Exit Velocity: Edouard Julien (90.8 mph)

Julien averaged 90.8 mph on 165 tracked batted balls, edging Goodman (89.8), Troy Johnston (89.7), and Moniak (89.7). That’s above the MLB average of roughly 89 mph, although the quality of his contact rarely translated into playable MLB production.

Hardest-Hit Ball: Hunter Goodman (116.2 mph)

On June 26 against Minnesota, Goodman crushed a two-run homer that traveled 451 feet. At 116.2 mph off the bat, it was the hardest-hit ball by a Rockie all season, reaching a level of exit velocity rarely seen even across MLB.

Six days earlier, Thompson had recorded an infield single with an exit velocity of just 32.6 mph, the softest non-bunt hit in our Statcast data.

That’s an 83.6-mph difference. One ball left the yard. The other barely left the infield.

Both counted as hits.

Lowest Chase Rate: Edouard Julien (18.6%)

Julien collects his second award after swinging at just 18.6% of pitches outside the strike zone, well below the MLB norm of roughly 28–30%.

Adael Amador (24.7%) and Kyle Karros (24.8%) also showed impressive restraint.

For all that discipline, Julien’s offensive results were very poor. He demonstrated an ability to avoid chasing bad pitches, but that alone wasn’t enough to make him a productive hitter.

Pitching

Fastest Pitch: Seth Halvorsen (101.9 mph)

On May 17 against Arizona, Halvorsen grabbed a strike against Geraldo Perdomo with a 100.7-mph fastball before upping the ante with a blistering 101.9-mph heater, the fastest pitch thrown by a Rockie all season.

Unfortunately for Halvorsen, Perdomo ripped it for a double.

Fastest Average Four-Seamer: Chase Dollander(98.9 mph)

Dollander averaged 98.9 mph across 280 four-seam fastballs, the highest mark among Rockies pitchers.

With the typical MLB four-seamer sitting around 94–95 mph, that’s serious velocity over a substantial number of pitches, not just one particularly hard throw.

How much of that velocity Dollander retains will be worth watching as he works toward a return from injury sometime in 2027.

Fielding

Strongest Arm: Cole Carrigg(96.9 mph)

Carrigg averaged 96.9 mph on his qualifying throws, ahead of Brenton Doyle (93.1) and Tyler Freeman (90.9). That’s exceptional arm strength even by major-league outfield standards, and nearly four mph harder than Doyle, who is known for a powerful arm.

His arm was capable of producing throws exceeding 100 mph, although getting the ball to its intended destination was another matter. On September 10 against the Yankees, Carrigg unleashed a throw that sailed over home plate.

But when he kept it on target, the results could be spectacular. On June 17 against the Cubs, Carrigg delivered a 99.8-mph throw to third base to complete a double play.

Two throws, two very different outcomes. The arm strength was never in question.

Most Outs Above Average: Ryan Ritter,TJ Rumfieldand Chad Stevens(+2 OAA)

Our first three-way tie!

All three finished with two Outs Above Average, a Statcast measurement of how many additional outs a defender converts compared with expectations.

Doyle or Ezequiel Tovar might have been the names you’d expect atop this category, but neither finished with the team lead. OAA is a cumulative measurement influenced by opportunities, and while +2 isn’t exactly Gold Glove territory, it’s only one part of the defensive picture.

Rumfield showed off his reactions on July 18 against Cincinnati, diving to stop a 100.8-mph grounder from Edwin Arroyo before recovering to record the out at first.

Stevens demonstrated a different kind of defensive ability on June 2 against the Angels, ranging into shallow center field to make a reaching catch on a fly ball from Sebastián Rivero.

The Rockies’ defense was poor overall in 2026, but there were still individual contributors and moments worth appreciating.

Running

Fastest Runner: Jake McCarthy (30.0 ft/sec)

McCarthy averaged 30.0 feet per second, putting him in the 98th percentile across MLB and reaching Statcast’s threshold for elite sprint speed.

Carrigg followed at 28.7, with Braxton Fulford third at 28.6.

Fulford didn’t see much playing time, but his speed was undeniable, especially for a catcher. In fact, he was the fastest catcher in baseball by this metric.

McCarthy also led Colorado with seven runs of baserunning value, including five from taking extra bases and two from basestealing.

And if you want to see what that kind of speed looks like, consider his July 12 trip around the bases against San Francisco. McCarthy drove a ball into the spacious right-center-field gap at Oracle Park and never stopped running.

It was McCarthy’s second leadoff inside-the-park home run of the season, the first coming against Paul Skenes on June 20. He became the first player to accomplish the feat twice in one year since Edd Roush in 1929.

What it all means

Absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things. These numbers won’t change the Rockies’ record or tell us much about what 2027 might hold.

But they do offer a few reminders that even in a season we’d rather forget, there were individual performances worth appreciating.

Congratulations to our winners!

Your trophies are imaginary, but the numbers are real.

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