DETROIT, MI - JULY 29: Tarik Skubal #29 of the Detroit Tigers, right, is hugged by manager A.J. Hinch #14 after being pulled from the game against the Baltimore Orioles during the seventh inning at Comerica Park on July 29, 2026 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The 2026 MLB Trade Deadline is here and this might perhaps be the most unpredictable deadline in recent memory.
The third Wild Card and lack of breakout teams in the American and National Leagues mean that only a couple of teams consider themselves to be out of playoff contention. Entering play on Friday, there are four teams that are within three games of the 3rd American League Wild Card spot while two of those teams, the Mariners and Astros, are within 2.5 games of the division lead in the West.
Meanwhile the National League has three teams that are in command of their respective divisions with the Brewers holding the smallest lead, a 5.5 game advantage over the Chicago Cubs. In the Wild Card chase, there are currently five teams within 3 games of the third Wild Card.
So with the standings being as they are, are just nine teams with the inclination to sell. One of those teams, the Detroit Tigers, holds the biggest trade chip this deadline, two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. However, it remains to be determined whether or not the Tigers will actually deal Skubal as they sit 4.5 games back of the 3rd Wild Card and 6.5 games back of the division lead; the Tigers also are promoted one of the top prospects in all of baseball, Max Clark, to make his big league debut
That leaves roughly two-thirds of the league as buyers and the remaining one-third as sellers, and not all the sellers even have impact players they are willing to trade. Which is why teams like the Mets, Tigers, and Angels will be able to seek inflated returns for their quality players and even rentals like Luis Arraez will figure to fetch a top 100 prospect or two.
Last week, the Washington Nationals and Boston Red Sox came together on a deal that helped both teams as Washington sent former Rays top prospect Curtis Mead to Boston for southpaw Connelly Early. Mead played one game with Boston before fracturing wrist after being hit by a pitch; Early meanwhile was already on the IL. The Rangers acquired catcher Logan O’Hoppe and pitcher Chase Silseth from the Angels for a low-level minor leaguer. O’Hoppe was in the midst of a disastrous season and was promptly optioned to the minor leagues. Last night, the Twins and Mets came together on a deal that sent AJ Minter to Minnesota. There hasn’t been much action on the trade front but that could change in an instant.
On Friday night, a trio of starters involved in trade rumors are slated to pitch for their respective teams: Freddy Peralta, Casey Mize, and Foster Griffin; the Tigers have already scratched Mize.
For their part, the Rays are in on everyone and have one of the best farm systems in baseball so they could accomplish just about anything if Neander is willing to pay the price. It’s the reverse of most offseasons when the Rays are unable to compete with the payrolls of their inter-division rivals, the Red Sox and Yankees will be unable to compete with the pieces the Rays have in their farm system.
Among the players the Rays have reportedly shown an interest in are Tarik Skubal, Hunter Goodman, Foster Griffin, Adley Rutschman, and Zach Neto.
Of course, opposing teams covet the Rays prospects, starting with Theo Gillen who appears to be an incredible talent and is currently scorching Double-A alongside another top prospect, catcher Caden Bodine. Then you have some lower level guys that are making noise like Nathan Flewelling, Cooper Flemming, and Taitn Gray that other teams would love to have.
We know the Rays would like to add an impact bat and a starting pitcher. We also know they’d like to address their catching situation and middle infield offensive output. This makes them about a match for every top available player. They have the farm system to get any deal done that they want.
Come Monday at 6pm, we’ll learn what price they are willing to pay.
In a season when the Cubs have already used 34 different pitchers (plus Carson Kelly pitched once), they’ve added another pitcher to the mix.
Left-hander Antoine Kelly, acquired from the Dodgers June 6 for cash considerations, has been called up from Triple-A Iowa and added to the 26-man active roster.
Kelly has made 13 appearances for Iowa with a 2.79 ERA, 1.241 WHIP and 22 strikeouts in 19.1 innings. He’s 26 and a Chicago area native (Maine East High School in Park Ridge).
To make room.on the 26-man rosters, right-hander Gavin Hollowell was placed on the 15-day injured list with shoulder inflammation.
On July 1, 2018, LeBron James announced he was signing a four-year $153.3 million contract to play basketball for the Los Angeles Lakers.
At the time he announced this move, there were no other superstars coming with him, and no immediately clear path to him extending his personal streak of making eight consecutive Finals. No, he’d be “going at it alone,” joining a roster of mostly unproven young players — some high lottery picks, some deeper draft/undrafted steals — and a few holdover veterans in an attempt to steward them into the next era of what many hoped, but even more doubted, could be the next Lakers champion.
Nearly eight years to the day, on June 30, 2026, LeBron James announced he would continue his career into a 24th campaign, but on a different team, leaving the Lakers after the longest uninterrupted stint of his Hall of Fame career. Unlike when he arrived, James was leaving a team that had a superstar already in tow, which, not coincidentally, helped to facilitate his decision to move on by essentially replacing him in both importance and status as the Lakers’ best player.
In the 2,291 days between LeBron’s announcement of his arrival and his decision to leave, he and the Lakers had their ups and downs, to be sure, but ultimately accomplished just about everything anyone could have realistically expected.
Individually, LeBron was named to eight All-Star games, one of the three All-NBA teams seven times, had three top-10 finishes in MVP voting (including a second place finish in 2020), passed Kareem Abdul-Jabbar to become the NBA’s all-time leading scorer (and, more broadly, the league’s oldest player to accomplish essentially anything of meaning in an individual game or average across a season), and won the Finals MVP. And, as a team, the Lakers won the organization’s 17th championship by claiming the 2020 title and won the inaugural In-Season Tournament/NBA Cup in 2024.
Whenever his career is over, his jersey will hang in the rafters and that’s that.
I’ll add, too, that while the 2019-20 season was the one where LeBron and the team experienced their most success together, it also doubled as one of the hardest for the organization, its fans, and, generally, the world. With the death of franchise and sports icon Kobe Bryant in January and then the COVID-19 shutdown in mid-March, LeBron put the franchise on his broad shoulders, serving as a leader both on and off the court to help stabilize the organization in ways that go beyond just basketball. I don’t know if there was a single player in the league I would have wanted more leading the team than LeBron during that time and I’ll always be grateful he was with the team to carry the burden that he did.
In bringing it back to the court, though, maybe fans wanted more. Some always will, of course. More titles, more regular season success, more consistent deep playoff runs…just more. But, in the eight years LeBron spent in Los Angeles, not a single team repeated as champion. We never saw a repeat Finals matchup or, even less so, a single team make the Finals in back-to-back seasons — though the Warriors, Celtics, and Heat each made two Finals in that stretch.
Maybe the Lakers could have been one of those teams that made more than one Finals run or bucked the trend and won a second, or even went back-to-back. They were certainly on track in 2021. But a Solomon Hill dive for a loose ball into LeBron’s legs and then an Anthony Davis sprained knee ended that idea. Then, later that summer, the ill-fated trade for Russell Westbrook essentially spiraled the team backward, undermining their championship chances long enough for the internal belief in the LeBron and Davis duo to erode to a point where the front office would no longer sacrifice assets that could possibly get them over the hump.
Whoever you want to blame for this, you’re likely to be correct.
The stars — LeBron included — either couldn’t stay healthy or couldn’t lift a flawed group of role players high enough to get past Denver to really make a sustained push to another title. And even though LeBron reportedly bought in and signed off, it was front office who both executed the disastrous Russ trade and then ultimately decided they would neither sacrifice more future assets to either get out of his deal earlier nor try to grab the sort of reinforcements LeBron and AD needed after it was clear the remade group they did build wasn’t good enough to get over the top.
And to the degree Jeanie Buss could have stepped in from her ownership role to alter the course charted in any way, it never happened, allowing Rob Pelinka to divest from a LeBron-led team to one that actively sought out its next superstar instead — something, to his credit, he did better than anyone could have ever imagined when he was able to flip Davis for Luka Dončić.
Which brings us to present day.
I, for one, have no hard feelings towards LeBron, or even his “camp” of Rich Paul and the more Bron-centric media talking heads who have been taking subtle (and sometimes not-so-subtle) shots at the Lakers in the wake of LeBron leaving for Philly. As I said up top, LeBron did everything I could have ever expected him to, and did it with a level of commitment to both his teammates and the franchise that you’d want from your best player. And while hearing the jabs from those around him is both annoying and somewhat predictable, it doesn’t sour my view of James himself or his time here.
From my POV, things weren’t always perfect, but they never are — not with Kareem, Magic, Shaq, or Kobe before him. But, just like those superstars who came before him, on most days, I knew exactly what I was getting from LeBron, and he delivered it with a spirit, joy, and love of the game that I always appreciated.
I know there are some who feel differently. Some, actively and derisively so. And I’m not here to tell you how to be a fan or who to like/cheer for. That’s how it goes with sports fandom — and especially how it goes with a fanbase as big as the Lakers’. There’s going to be a much wider range of opinions and like any other huge group of people, we’re not a monolith and there’s no one single opinion about any single player that every person will hold as their undeniable truth.
That said, I think we can all agree that with LeBron now gone, the pivot is here to Luka Dončić as the undisputed face of the franchise and the singular superstar this team will rise and fall with. And I, personally, am excited about what this means for the team and the franchise moving forward. LeBron leaving can mean different things to different people, but it’s undoubtedly an opportunity for Dončić to put his stamp on the Lakers in the singular way that his personality and game dictate.
This is something that never could have happened with LeBron here. He knew it, Luka knew it, Pelinka and the front office knew it, and so does everyone else. Which means it was probably time for this change to happen and goodbyes were in order.
So, goodbye LeBron. Much success to you in Philly. Except when you play the Lakers.
HOUSTON, TEXAS - JANUARY 15: A general view of the Houston Rockets logo on court prior to the game against the Oklahoma City Thunder at Toyota Center on January 15, 2026 in Houston, Texas. User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Kenneth Richmond/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Houston Rockets, along with the rest of the NBA, are in the middle of their offseason. Players are doing their individual workouts, coaches are going over their training camp and start-of-season plans, and the front office is, as usual, thinking ahead about how to improve their teams.
Late July through Early September are usually the slowest time of the year for the NBA as the next big event is training camp, which usually takes place the last week of September or the first week of October.
Some players host basketball camps for their local communities, which allow fans to work out with an actual NBA player. For instance, Jabari Smith has held a basketball camp each season he has been in the NBA.
Other off-court events take place throughout the Summer as NBA players and teams host a range of functions, from park renovations to back-to-school charity events.
The Rockets organization has always been active in the community year-round. They have renovated multiple parks, hold charity events to benefit the Boys and Girls Clubs throughout the city, and hold food drives every holiday season.
The Rockets will hold their annual Back-to-School Bash in partnership with the Houston Parks and Recreation Department. The event took place at Sunnyside Community Center and featured a backpack giveaway and school-supply distribution for up to 1,000 students, courtesy of Reliant and the Rockets.
Each backpack will include a Chick-fil-A and a Pizza Hut voucher, along with beverages from Gatorade and Aquafina for the event.
There will be appearances by Hall of Famer and Comets legend Cynthia Cooper and Rockets legend Rafer Alston. Rockets staff will conduct basketball clinics, and students can receive complimentary health and dental screenings without the need for insurance, courtesy of Children’s Memorial Hermann Hospital.
Students will also be able to receive services from Franklin Beauty Institute and Sparkle Spa Bus. This is a great event that provides families with school supplies and essentials they will need for the upcoming school year. The event also brings the community together and gives the Rockets orginization the oppurtunity to interact with the fans who support them all season long.
MINNEAPOLIS — The Minnesota Twins haven’t forgotten the sting from the day of the trade deadline last year.
Their latest feel-good win added yet more fuel for the front office to be in buy mode this time instead of the massive sell-off last summer.
After being no-hit through six innings by Kansas City’s Noah Cameron and shut out until the ninth, Minnesota mounted a thrilling two-out comeback to win 4-3 and improve to 10-2-1 in their last 13 series since June 12.
With a hit-by-pitch, a single and a walk, the Twins loaded the bases against Royals closer Lucas Erceg. Matt Strahm relieved and served up an 0-2 slider that Kody Clemens smacked into the flower box above right-center field for the sixth walk-off grand slam in team history.
Clemens, who’s second on the team with 19 home runs, was due up sixth in that inning.
“I was still preparing to get ready to hit. This team’s got a lot of fight in us, and we’ve tended to rally like that,” Clemens said. “I was ready.”
The Twins moved back to the .500 mark at 55-55 entering a nine-game road trip that begins at Seattle. The trade deadline this year is on Monday, when they’re off before starting a series in Kansas City. They’re in third place in the AL Central, three games behind Chicago and one game behind Cleveland. The wild-card race puts them even closer to postseason contention, one game behind the Guardians for the third and final spot.
Just keep winning series — that’s the focus in what has been a close-knit and fun-vibe clubhouse this season.
“We will celebrate this one,” said manager Derek Shelton, who just turned 56. “We’ll dual celebrate this one on this flight.”
With the deadline approaching, players will inevitably experience some unease. Catcher Ryan Jeffers, who broke up Cameron’s no-hitter with a single and took the hit-by-pitch to spark the rally, is on an expiring contract and could be a useful chip toward acquiring pitching help, for example.
But after the stunning series of nine trades a year ago that jettisoned 40% of the major league roster, including four high-leverage relievers, the Twins are satisfied with the way they’ve performed on a slashed payroll with scant external expectations for success.
“I think it’d be awesome if it was very dramatic just in the other direction. I think it’d be awesome to go get some real big key pieces here,” infielder Royce Lewis said. “Anything you can add to this team, I think it’s going to be a boost emotionally for us on a team that’s already thriving and having so much fun in the clubhouse.”
General manager Jeremy Zoll said the goal is to add to the current team and not subtract. Owner Tom Pohlad, who’s been working hard to try to restore faith in the club within the fan base, said earlier in July he’s not interested in the type of cost-cutting moves initiated last year by his younger brother, Joe Pohlad, when he was the controlling owner.
“We’re going to focus on finding to continue to improve the bullpen and that’ll be a clear focus,” said Zoll, who has the lead role this year after the departure of president of baseball operations Derek Falvey. “Beyond that, we’re going to be open to a variety of creative paths, and you never know what might come about.”
PITTSBURGH, PA - JULY 24: Esmerlyn Valdez #55 of the Pittsburgh Pirates looks on prior to the game between the Chicago Cubs and the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on Friday, July 24, 2026 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Rayni Shiring/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
The Pittsburgh Pirates signed Konnor Griffin to a franchise record contract at the beginning of this season, but it could be another Buccos rookie that ends up stealing the limelight.
Pirates’ rookie Esmerlyn Valdez has emerged as one of the most exciting rookies in baseball, and has been a big contributor for Pittsburgh since his promotion in June. According to FanDuel SportsBook the 22-year-old outfielder currently has the third best odds to win the National League Rookie of the Year, sitting behind just JJ Wetherholt and Sal Stewart with +1000 odds.
Valdez impressed in Spring Training with the Buccos but was optioned to Triple-A Indianapolis in March. He would receive a call up towards the end of March before being optioned back down less than a week later. Valdez has been unbelievable since his latest call up on June 11 however, and has been a key part of the Pirates’ lineup since then.
Few players on the Buccos have been better sluggers since Valdez joined the team. In 41 games he’s smashed 14 home runs, and has been a very efficient hitter at the plate as well. He’s currently slashing .277/.371/.664 with a 1.035 OPS. At just 22-years-old Valdez has an approach that looks like a seasoned pro. He’s tied for the fourth most homers on the Pirates, but has done it in a fraction of the time as the other top hitters on the squad. Oneil Cruz also has 14 homers, but played in 23 more games than Valdez.
As a defender, Valdez has seen the most time in right field, and has been lights out in that corner of the outfield. He currently holds the distinction of having a perfect fielding percentage with 55 put outs between right and left field. Having Valdez in right field has also allowed Ryan O’Hearn to play in his natural position more often, with his move back to first base benefitting the whole squad.
The Pirates are better off with Valdez as a key part of the lineup, as the team has gone 22-17 when he’s a part of the game. Few rookie batters have had a hotter streak at the plate this season, and Valdez could emerge as the favorite in the NL ROTY race if he continues to contribute at such a high level.
Left: Feb. 2026 photo of San Francisco Giants outfielder Harrison Bader. Right: Feb. 1998 photo of San Francisco Giants second baseman Jeff Kent. (Associated Press; Getty Images)
Similarities between Harrison Bader and Jeff Kent are few. Sure, Bader plays for the San Francisco Giants and Kent used to do so. Otherwise, little of note links the great-fielding, average-hitting Bader to the formerly average-fielding, exceptional-hitting Kent.
Until, that is, the predawn hours Sunday when Bader’s scooter collided with the back of a fire engine. A wheel rolled over his left foot, causing a serious injury that required medical assistance, a witness told SFist. Other witnesses described Bader as bar-hopping throughout the evening, according to Matt Lively of KPIX.
Bader has not fully cooperated with the Giants about the incident, a person briefed on the matter told Andrew Baggerly of the Athletic, who speculated that Bader might be concerned that the team could seek to void the remainder of his contract for taking part in “high-risk activities” that the collective bargaining agreement forbids without the Giants’ written consent.
Cue to Kent, who while Bader was being treated at a Bay Area hospital Sunday was enjoying his induction ceremony into the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, N.Y. He was honored for hitting more home runs than any other second baseman in MLB history and driving in more than 100 runs eight times.
Conveniently forgotten was the time Kent broke a bone in his left wrist during spring training in 2002 and lied about how it occurred, saying he fell while washing his truck when eyewitnesses and a 911 call established that he actually fell off a motorcycle while “popping wheelies,” according to then-Giants general manager Brian Sabean.
Why did he tell a tall tale? Most likely to protect his $6 million contract that prohibited high-risk activities such as motorcycle riding. Admitting the truth would have allowed the Giants to fine him or void his deal.
The Giants left well enough alone because Kent was an essential cog in their lineup, the story died down and he missed only the first four regular-season games. The Giants advanced to the World Series — where they lost to the Angels — and Kent hit a career-high 37 home runs.
Bader, who is in the first year of of a two-year, $20.5 million contract, finds himself in a far more precarious position than Kent. He has played only 30 games all season primarily because of an earlier injury to the same foot and is batting .170.
The Giants might see an opportunity to get out from under the second year of his deal by invoking the “high-risk activities” language from the CBA.
Bader followed through with a previously scheduled foot and ankle specialist in Indianapolis on Monday. According to a team injury report, “the impact of that (collision-related) injury changed the nature of his evaluation.” The team also said he would undergo an MRI exam to “better understand the severity of the injuries sustained from the scooter accident.”
As of Friday morning, MRI results have not been released and Bader has declined to speak publicly. Manager Tony Vitello said Thursday that Bader is not expected to return this season, and that a return was unlikely before the collision. A week ago, however, Vitello said Bader had a chance to return in September.
Bader, a 32-year-old 10-year veteran, would be hard-pressed to explain the incident as youthful indiscretion the way he might have in 2014 when he was involved in a motorized scooter accident as a University of Florida sophomore. An incident report from the Gainesville Police Department said Bader hit a curb and ran into a truck. He was unresponsive on the ground, smelled of alcohol and was suspended from the baseball team for 19 games.
The latest incident follows several embarrassing episodes this season with the Giants, who through Thursday are 47-62 and 22 games behind the first-place Dodgers in the National League West.
Perhaps most damaging was the fallout from four Giants pitchers pushing back against the team’s annual Pride Night in June, with three writing Bible verses next to the rainbow-tinted logo on their caps and the fourth declining to wear the colorful cap at all.
MLB said the pitchers were in violation of uniform protocols, triggering a culture skirmish between one of the nation’s most vibrantly diverse and queer cities and politicians who asserted that the actions were an expression of religious freedom.
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - MARCH 30: General Manager Jerry Dipoto speaks with manager Scott Servais #9 of the Seattle Mariners during Opening Day at T-Mobile Park on March 30, 2023 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Nobody gets to fire two managers in two years.
Jeff Passan went on the radio on Tuesday and placed the blame for the Mariners season at the feet of manager Dan Wilson. Passan heavily implied Wilson should be replaced, using logic I’ve seen plenty throughout the season: This roster is far too talented to be playing this poorly.
And, no, it’s not.
Let’s just look at some projections. There are plenty of models out there, and you should consider them all, but I use Steamer because it’s 1) easily accessible through FanGraphs, 2) the most conservative on this iteration of the Mariners, and 3) disturbingly accurate at projecting their full-season fWAR. Here we can see how Steamer compares to the Mariners actual fWAR since 2016.
Now, WAR are not wins (we’ll get there), but projected WAR are still quite good at projecting the actual standings. In fact, at just about any point in the season, if you want to know how well a team will play the rest of the year, you’re about as well off trusting preseason projections as their performance to date. That’s why things like FanGraphs playoff odds can look skeptical of surges and collapses, and why the Mariners still have good odds to make the playoffs.
This makes projections an essential reference for assessing a team, pre-, mid- and post-season. Yes, I appreciate “um actually the forecast clearly states” sounds like the thing I say before getting shoved into a locker. But if you’re demanding someone get fired from a baseball team on the internet, well, I suppose I’ll find you in the locker with me.
We can see a few things from this plot. First, there’s a nice linear relationship between projected WAR and the final standings, but there’s clearly some variance. Lots of things determine how many games a team wins beyond their talent on Opening Day. Teams can play above, at, or below their talent level. They can get good, neutral, or poor luck. They can run up against injuries and schedules and umpires and God. Perhaps coaches matter, too.
We can also see the Mariners tend to get out of their seasons what they put in. In Jerry Dipoto’s tenure, the roster has either met or exceeded expectations every single season. They’ve been exceptionally predictable, a metronome set to 54 beats per minute — the perfect tempo for a dirge.
Let’s look at this another way. I created some buckets for preseason WAR and found the end-of-season outcomes for each. The table below shows the median win total, as well as the high- and low results:
Tier (Range)
n
p10
p25
p50
p75
p90
15–20 (Uncompetitive)
14
27.3%
32.4%
38.0%
41.4%
43.3%
20–29 (Terrible)
49
36.3%
40.7%
43.8%
48.1%
52.6%
29–33 (Bad)
49
39.4%
42.6%
47.5%
53.1%
56.0%
33–38 (Average)
48
44.1%
47.5%
50.3%
55.7%
58.8%
38–42 (Good)
48
47.3%
50.5%
53.7%
55.6%
57.8%
42—48 (Great)
48
48.0%
54.7%
57.1%
60.2%
63.6%
48–59 (Elite)
14
47.5%
50.6%
59.0%
64.1%
65.1%
From 2023 and to 2025, the Mariners began the season with the expectations of a “good” team. These teams typically win about 54% of their games and finish 12th in the majors overall. It’s the minimum threshold to enter a season with playoff expectations, generally as the Wild Card. That’s pretty much exactly what they got in those years.
This year, however, the Mariners took a tepid step forward, dipping a toe into great (on paper). This bucket contains a broad range of projected WAR, and the Mariners 43.5 WAR was at the very bottom end, bearing closer resemblance to “good” than “elite.” Maybe we could call this “very good.” Regardless, it’s fair to say this roster was a bit more than those of the past, and also not quite.
Even still, plenty of teams even at this level wind up with less than great results. If we look back up at the plot above, the 2026 Mariners are still within a typical range of outcomes given the quality of their roster. What’s happening this year isn’t weird or uncommon, even if it is disappointing.
Now, from this perspective, I could see why some would point the finger at the coaching staff. It’s weird for this team to underperform. I also appreciate why some fans are willing to excoriate specifically Wilson. His predecessor, Scott Servais, was fired for delivering exactly what his rosters deserved, and Wilson was hired in his place with no managerial experience. The choice was seen as the latest evidence that the org is addicted to its memberberries and prioritizes image over substance. And in his time as manager, Wilson hasn’t made himself easy to like. He’s boring in press conferences, unwilling or unable to say… anything. He doesn’t explain his decisions, he doesn’t take accountability or say who should. He’s about as vacant publicly as his Funko Pop, the only difference being the one in the dugout comes with string-activated “ums” and “ahs” and “tough ones.”
But that Wilson is limiting this team doesn’t quite satisfy as a scapegoat. If we’re saying that coaching staffs matter, and perhaps they do, well, just last year Wilson led the Mariners to 90 wins and a deep playoff run. The year before, Wilson took over with roughly six weeks left in the season — having no managerial experience — and went 21-13, or a 100-win pace. Up until this latest slump, Wilson held the best record in team history, and one of the five best records among active managers overall. If the manager matters, and we’re dinging Wilson for this stretch, then we’re also giving him credit as one of the best managers in the majors before it. Maybe Wilson doesn’t do as well in the Cool Xiennial Podcasto Sphere as someone like Tony Vitello, and maybe his face isn’t nearly as red John Schneider’s. But he seems to be a kind, humble guy, sufficient in the minor art of field managing, and liked enough in the locker room for multiple players to say they want to play in Seattle forever. Ignore him or hate him, I don’t think you can blame him.
So who can you blame?
Well, there is a fairly obvious culprit for the Mariners struggles this year. As I wrote a few weeks ago, the Mariners entered 2025 with the best projected duo in the majors in Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez. They are the sole reason this roster has expectations at all. Unfortunately, they’re on pace to post nearly 10 wins less than projected. It doesn’t quite work like this in reality, but it’s worth pointing out those 10 wins are roughly the difference between the Mariners current 78-win pace and the 88-win pace Steamer had them at in the preseason. No, I’m not “blaming” them. Injuries happen. Slumps happen. The season isn’t over. Et cetera. But if you take the two best players away from any team, they probably aren’t going to do as well as they should. It’s not a mystery.
If you insist on blaming anyone, I think it’s most appropriate to point the finger at the front office. Or rather, I think it’s most appropriate to point the finger at their plan. The team has been pretty direct in saying their goal is to win, roughly, 54% of their games over a long period of time. And as I’ve laid out above, they’ve done exactly that, on paper and on the field.
It’s a fine plan, to be clear. The justification is it allows them to hoard prospects, playing time, and ohhhhh if you insist a bit of cash in the outlook. By not committing to any one season, they spread their risk over a longer competitive window, allowing them to make targeted, timely maneuvers while growing a roster from within. The 2025 Mariners serve as proof of concept for this strategy. The team can absolutely win a World Series this way.
But 2026 is an inverse to that proof of concept. The governor they place on annual talent realistically caps them at 90 wins year over year. That’s a tenuous playoff position on its own, and any underperformance threatens to sink them out of contention. Sure, spreading risk over time helps avoid a scenario where a chock-full basket of eggs shatters into oblivion. And yes, there is no projected WAR threshold that might clear disaster on its own. But the closer you build a roster to a coin flip, the more likely you’ll be disappointed in its face.
That’s why I’m not willing to extend much grace despite the step forward in the projections. Like, hey, good on the Mariners for making legitimate progress on paper. I am one of the few people in the world admin-pilled enough to give them credit for something like theoretical wins. But they’re the ones setting the terms at 30,000 feet, and the view from up there isn’t particularly flattering. The Mariners are pacing for a 40% playoff rate, 20% division rate, and 0% World Series rate — and that’s if we start the clock in year seven of Jerry Dipoto’s tenure.
It’s worth looking at where the Mariners rank since 2022, when they started playing for real:
Year
Hit
Run
Field
Batter
SP
RP
Pitcher
2026
16
25
29
23
7
17
7
2025
3
19
24
9
14
17
18
2024
12
14
17
14
4
26
9
2023
6
20
7
5
5
8
5
2022
8
13
17
8
17
14
17
Total
5
19
19
10
6
17
10
The relative strengths of the Mariners have been starting pitching and (gasp!) hitting. These are without a doubt the most valuable facets of the game, and good on them for their performance in these areas. It’s genuinely impressive that they’ve achieved this mostly through their farm system, and that alone makes them one of the best front offices in the majors.
But their weaknesses have been (and continue to be) the nooks and crannies of the roster. They can’t run the bases. They can’t field. They can’t maintain narrow deficits in the middle innings. Their teams tend to be lopsided and weirdly distributed. These have been consistent issues for years. Batting slumps and bullpen lumps get the headlines when the team struggles, but the Mariners issues historically are the little things — the things that can’t be found in three-team deals, shuffling value at the margins.
And that’s why I find it a bit rich that the team fired assistant hitting coach Bobby Magallanes last week. Yes, absolutely, the Mariners are losing right now because they’ve struggled to hit. But they finished last year second in the majors by wRC+ (113) with Magallanes in dugout. Every team slumps at the plate. The difference is the great teams have something else going for them, to keep them in games and avoid greatness-tanking skids.
There is a sort of competence in what the Mariners have done. They told us what their goal was, and they’ve achieved it with frustrating levels of precision. My first game was 2003. The two decades of Mariners baseball that followed were not fun. I didn’t take solace in the fact that the powers that be were earnestly trying to win World Series. I would have preferred this a million times over. Ticket sales suggest others do, too. It’s the most successful the Mariners have been in my lifetime. It’s good baseball.
But it’s worth thinking about where we’re at. In August 2024, the Mariners saw fit to fire a manager because they weren’t satisfied with the results of the team. Not quite two years later, there’s been another firing in the dugout and clamoring for more. Maybe it’s time for the good to get going.
ATLANTA, GEORGIA - JULY 17: Emiliano Teodo #56 of the Texas Rangers reacts during his MLB debut in the fifth inning against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park on July 17, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Congratulations to Emiliano Teodo, who has been named the #18 prospect in the 2026 LSB Midseason Community Prospect Rankings, receiving a little under one-quarter of the vote.
Our list so far:
1 — Sebastian Walcott
2 — Caden Scarborough
3 — Malcolm Moore
4 — A.J. Russell
5 — Yolfran Castillo
6 — Rafe Perich
7 — Dylan Dreiling
8 — Josh Owens
9 — Jose Corniell
10 — Dalton Pence
11 — David Davalillo
12 — Yeison Morrobel
13 — Hector Osorio
14 — Cam Cauley
15 — Seong-Jun Kim
16 — Winston Santos
17 — Paulino Santana
18 — Emiliano Teodo
Moving on…
Who is the #19 prospect in the Rangers system right now?
TAMPA, FLORIDA - MARCH 21, 2026: Eric Hartman #64 of the Atlanta Braves bats during the second inning of a spring training Spring Breakout game against the New York Yankees at George M. Steinbrenner Field on March 21, 2026 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images
After a long week, we are entering the final day of our top 30 roll out. As always it has been an absolute pleasure for us to put together this list, even though it was one of the hardest ones we’ve done in quite some time. There has been another massive infusion of talent to the organization both in international free agency, and through the 2026 MLB draft. We aim to update the list once again at the end of the season after hopefully getting our eyes on the new draft class. All that being said, we hope you have enjoyed our midseason top 30 and be on the look out for a couple more articles coming out this weekend that build off of the influx of talent that the Braves have had over the past two years.
6. John Gil – SS
How he got to the Braves: 2023 International Free Agent
After putting together a strong 2025 where he hit .252/.348/.366 across 107 games, where he showed a fantastic eye at the plate with a 12.4% walk rate, and just 14.5% strikeout rate, along with 54 stolen bases. He showed really strong decision in his swing decisions as he showed the ability to not just recognize spin, but also not expand his zone outside of the strike zone. He entered 2026 on nuclear watch because of how advanced his approach, at the age of 19, along with his physical maturity and loud tools.
It hasn’t gone quite as John himself was expecting, as he’s hit just .241/.346/.371. John’s BABIP falls below the average mark sitting at .288 despite the double plus speed he possesses which indicates a level of unluckiness. John has shown more power, as he’s hit a career high 11 home runs, while still leading the league in stolen bases. His walk rate as actually increased, now sitting at 13% for the season, and his swing and contact rates have remained relatively consistent to what we’ve seen in the past. He’s also cut his GB% to 39.8% (down from 46% in 2025), while increasing his LD% from 17.5% to 25%. The biggest change in his profile has been he’s been slightly more pull dominant than he was last year, but that also came with a new career high in ISO. While he may not have put up the numbers we hoped for in 2026, his profile remains unchanged.
Gil is a player that has the tools and talent to be a major outlier at his position. Gil possesses the ability to hit for good power while also getting on base at a high clip where he can showcase his double-plus speed. Gil has played a majority of the season as shortstop, but has also played a lot of second base as well. As of right now the added swing-and-miss is an outlier, so as we head into the close of 2026, he will remain one of the highest upside positional prospects the Braves have in their organization.
5. Cam Caminiti – LHP
How he got to the Braves: 2024 1st round pick (#24 overall)
After re-classifying, Cam Caminiti was eligible for the 2024 MLB draft as a 17 year old after. He was surprisingly available for the Braves to select at #24 overall and the Braves didn’t balk at the opportunity – drafting and signing him for $3.5, buying him out of his commitment to LSU. He made a single start for the Augusta GreenJackets before being shut down for the season.
In 2025, his debut was highly anticipated but delayed with his season not beginning until May. The results weren’t great, as he struggled out of the gate – allowing 11 earned runs across just 13.2 innings pitched but it didn’t take long to turn things around as the calendar hit June, and he immediately turned in his best performance with five innings of one hit ball. He would go on to finish the season appearing in 17 games across two levels, the FCL and Low-A Augusta, where he pitched to a combined 3.09 ERA with an 11.57 K/9 and 3.60 BB/9 rate. He did all this while being just a two pitch pitcher as the Braves used the season to work on his fastball command, and to introduce a sweeper. By the end of the season Cam showed the ability to command his fastball, especially at the top of the zone, and was landing his sweeper to both sides of the plate against both LHB, and RHB showing a massive step progression in year 1, and leaving us all wondering how the next season would go.
Fast forward to this year, and at the time of this article dropping, Cam had already put together 17 games and when you look at the number, a 4.11 ERA, 2.16 batting average against, 9.27 K/9, and 4.23 BB/9 you wonder how a prospect of his ability regressed in his second full season as a professional but the numbers show a fraction of how the actual season has gone. After being just a two pitch pitcher last year, Cam Caminiti has leveraged 6-7 pitches this season as the Braves along with Cam figure out the pitch mix that best suites his ability. He has utilized that strong four-seam, and sweeper, but has added a two-seam, cutter, changeup, and added his curveball back into the mix. The Braves have also worked on his mechanics, a lot, this year, out of the stretch as he’s had some issues with maintaining them as the game goes along. So when you factor in all of that, along with the fact that he is the same age as both Briggs McKenzie (2025), and a few months younger than Jensen Hirschkorn (2026) the numbers on the mound make a bit more sense.
Cam’s upside remains unchanged from his original drafting year. He’s shown flashes of true top of the rotation talent as he’s navigated a very physically demanding year. 2027 looks to be a huge year for Cam especially if he’s able to improve his conditioning a bit more where he’s not struggling with his mechanics out of the stretch as the game goes on. He’s shown enormous potential on the mound and looks every bit worth the price tag associated with him from 2024.
4. Briggs McKenzie – LHP
How he got to the Braves: 2025 4th round pick (#127 overall)
Taken in the fourth round of the 2025 thanks to the some of the cost savings from going under-slot in the first three rounds, the Braves saw enough out of Briggs McKenzie in high school to offer him $3M to buy him out of his commitment to LSU. He was one of the highest rated prep pitchers in the draft thanks to his ability to spinning his super high RPM curveball. He pairs that well with a fastball that has shown really strong arm side run, though he had not shown the ability to hold his velocity with his fastball – often sitting closer to the 91 MPH mark in high school. Still, the Braves saw more than enough from him, and his 6’2” frame, to give him the bonus and bet on their player development system to get the most out of him.
The returns to the McKenzie selection were seen extremely early in 2026 as he came out of the gates swinging. Briggs made three appearances in the FCL where he had a 0.79 ERA, but more impressively a minimal 1.59 BB/9 rate, and ridiculous 62% GB%. He was sent to the Augusta GreenJackets where he made a singular start where he was dominant – striking out eight over five innings of work while allowing just one hit. The Braves promoted him to High-A Rome where he made three appearances before finding himself on the IL after his June 25th start and has yet to make another appearance. But what we saw, was a teenager that was able to locate his fastball at the top of the zone with regularly, while also showing a +sweeper, and good changeup. His four-seam was sitting between 93-94 MPH, up from the original 91-92 that we saw from him during games in high school. His sweeper showed fantastic movement with nearly 18” of horizontal break, and 8” of vertical break, while also throwing a good changeup. While the sample has been small, 7 total games, there is a lot to get excited about Briggs who appears to be a player that can move quite quickly through the system. He and Cam Caminiti have formed a formidable high upside duo of left handed pitching found at the top of the Braves system.
It took one Low-A start for the Braves to decide Briggs McKenzie is ready for High-A 👀
— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) June 8, 2026
3. Tate Southisene – SS
How he got to the Braves: 2025 1st round pick (#22 overall)
Atlanta got mixed reactions to picking Tate Southisene 22nd overall in 2025, but one year out they seem like geniuses to all but a very select few. Southisene has been about as good as a player can be coming straight out of high school. He was shaky in short professional debut, but hit the ground running in Augusta this spring and posted a 152 wRC+ across 51 games. Southisene then earned himself a call up to Rome in June and continued mashing, with a 121 wRC+ and four home runs in 38 games. Southisene has maintained a walk rate above 15% at both levels and is age-relative perfomance is in the elite tier of prospects, and the Braves saw enough to make a daring call in late July. Southisene got the quick bump to Double-A Columbus, where he could continue to start full time and get tested by pitchers with better command. Unfortunately this is where our hero meets his first real challenge. Southisene got just two plate appearances in Columbus before getting hit on the wrist, and he is now on the injured list for an unknown period of time. Regardless of what happens for the rest of the season this is a successful year for Southisene, but this has opened up the first chance for his development to be delayed. Southisene has overall been an elite performer in 2026. He’s the only player age 20 or under in minor league baseball who has 10+ home runs and 45+ stolen bases, and one of only three of any age in the minor leagues to reach that number. He makes contact at a high rate and doesn’t ever swing out of the strike zone, though that doesn’t necessarily mean his approach is perfect just yet.
There were concerns about Southisene’s swing coming out of high school and many questioned if it would limit his hit tool at the professional level. The Braves had him work to make his load and swing simpler, and after some early season adjustments those changes have seemed to pay dividends. He has shown the ability to be an above average hitter both for on base and for power, and there is even more power in the tank for him. At this stage Southisene still doesn’t pull the ball in the air very often, which is a common trait for young players and especially those who could rely on their speed to get on base in high school. That’s limited some of the impact he has made, yet he is still producing above league-average power numbers. Southisene’s ability to lay off of pitches out of the zone is impressive, though if there is any knock against him it might be that he is a bit too selective. He watches too many good pitches go by and could benefit from attacking fastballs more often with the intent to do damage on the pull side, but too patient is a better problem to have than a guy who cannot recognize spin or the edges of the zone. The biggest question for Southisene is whether he can actually stick at shortstop. He primarily played second base in Augusta beside Alex Lodise, but upon being promoted he has played all but four of his games in the field at shortstop. His foot speed and instincts are good enough to play the position, but his arm is fringe for shortstop and he may have to slide to second base or center field at the next level. Southisene has the bat to still make an impact even if shortstop is not his ultimate defensive home, but there is still plenty of time for him to improve in that regard. Overall the Braves seem to have a gem of an up-the-middle prospect with the ability to impact the game in multiple ways on the offensive end and a game mature enough to get him to Double-A as a teenager.
2. AJ Gracia – OF
How he got to the Braves: 2026 1st round pick (#9 overall)
The Braves added AJ Gracia to their system, leveraging the philosophy of going under-slot in the first two rounds to add more high end prep talent to the organization. But Gracia isn’t your typical “safe” college player, as he also shows massive potential. AJ’s talent was on display in 2025 when he was the most south after transfers after putting together an extremely strong .293/.449/.558 slash line at the University of Duke. The Virginia Cavaliers were able to add him to their roster in 2026 and he took off, showing improvements in nearly every facet of his game and hitting an even more robust .354/.489/.632 across 56 games.
It’s easy to see what the Braves saw in AJ Gracia, even without factoring in the cost savings. As is, he’s a very polished hitter who does not strike out a lot (12.6%), while having a great eye at the plate (20% BB%). AJ has shown the ability to not expand his zone, while also showing an advanced ability to recognize spin and lay off breaking pithes that start in-zone, but fall out of the zone. While he doesn’t possess supreme bat speed, or exit velocities, he’s able to generate lots of back spin with his swing which makes the ball jump off of his bat. Not only was he a safe pick at ninth overall, he also provides significant upside that merits the selection.
AJ projects as a middle of the order bat with a skillset and approach that should allow him to advance quickly through the minor leagues. His existing approach is advanced for a college hitter adjusting to minor league baseball so the expectations are rather significant to begin with. By as early as the end of 2027, it would not be surprising if Gracia is pushing for a spot in the upper minors with the thoughts of a potential 2028 MLB push.
1. Eric Hartman – OF
How he got to the Braves: 2024 20th round pick (#611 overall)
Outside of the Hartman family, even the rosiest of expectations didn’t foresee this sort of rise from Eric Hartman. Hartman was certainly a player to watch coming into 2026 due to a great debut, but he has blown everyone in baseball away with his performance in High-A — a performance made especially shocking due to how little Hartman was known prior to this. Hartman was a 20th round pick, and while his professional debut in 2025 was successful, injuries kept him from reaching his full potential and swing-and-miss issues were problematic for him at times. He was a prospect with helium coming into 2026, but exploded onto the scene in a hurry and has been the best player in the Braves system this season. Hartman has always been a player who had a high pulled fly ball rate and enough power to make him worth fearing, but he added strength this offseason and improved himself from an average power hitter to a plus one seemingly overnight. Hartman has 22 home runs in 90 games with Rome this season, and he’s not just a one-tool power hitter. Hartman has shown the speed to play center field and has stolen 36 bases on the season, becoming the first 20-20 hitter in the system since Ronald Acuna Jr. in 2017. Hartman has already passed Acuna’s home run numbers for that season and is on pace to beat the stolen base numbers by a fair margin as well, though with the increased run environment across minor league baseball and the rule changes to make stealing bases easier that’s not a one-to-one comparison that is fair to make. Still it goes to show just how rare what Hartman has done this season truly is, and he has made himself a consensus top 100 prospect after just a few months.
Hartman has had a brilliant season and it has bumped his grades across the board. He is making more contact in the zone, and when he does make contact the ball jumps off of his bat. He has a knack for finding the barrel to all parts of the field and in all parts of the strike zone, and if you come at him in the strike zone he is going to open up and look to do damage on the pull side. His mindset is primed for the modern baseball game, and when you consider the Braves home park he could also benefit from a short porch in right field. His hit tool isn’t all sunshine and rainbows, however, as he is aggressive out of the strike zone and especially tends to go after breaking balls below the zone. This is a problem that has been around for him dating back to last season, though he has improved and for someone who swings as often as he does in the strike zone his chase rates are relatively low. He has to get a better eye for spin and learn to spit on those pitches at his shins, but it’s important to realize how green Hartman still is. Hartman was incredibly raw coming out of the Canadian prep ranks and was expected to take years to develop if he ever did at all. The improvements he has made in such a short time show an immense aptitude for the game of baseball, and there is every reason to believe he will continue to improve both his skill and his understanding of the game. He has improved significantly as a defender, from a fringe center fielder to one who is solidly average, and he’s a high-IQ baserunner who beyond stealing bases can take an extra base with ease on base hits. Hartman’s approach needs a bit of work, but his attack mentality to lift pitches on his pull side is what makes him great and the Braves won’t want him falling too complacent. Hartman is one of the best stories in recent memory, with the biggest breakout I’ve seen from any hitter in this system, and the arrow is still pointing up for him moving into the latter half of the year.
Jul 7, 2026; Arlington, Texas, USA; Los Angeles Angels catcher Logan O'Hoppe (14) stops as he rounds first base on a single against the Texas Rangers during the fifth inning at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Jim Cowsert-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
The Connelly Early for Curtis Mead trade between the Boston Red Sox and Washington Nationals is still pretty wild. Mead now has a left wrist fracture, which probably takes him out of the lineup for at least a month and completely ruins the best argument for this trade for Boston, a better short term push to make the playoffs.
The Washington Nationals are looking like a real problem organizationally. Their farm system now ranks fourth on Baseball America’s recent farm system rankings and there is a massive trend under the Paul Toboni front office for making players better.
If we look at their major league team, several players have taken significant steps. The aforementioned Curtis Mead had bounced around the Rays and White Sox without getting significant major league playing time. With the Nationals in 2026, Mead produced a 133 OPS+ and was traded for Connelly Early, who carries a mid-rotation projection with over five seasons of club control.
James Wood turning into one of the best hitters in the sport isn’t an impressive win given his prospect status but it has happened. CJ Abrams on the other-hand has broken out from being a solid hitter to a potential star with a 153 OPS+.
The real wins, however, look to be from everyone else. Luis Garcia jr is having the best season of his career. They made Keibert Ruiz useful again. On the pitching side, Foster Griffin signed a one-year deal from the NPB and became an all-star. Cade Cavalli took a step forward.
That’s a lot of good things happening under a regime that was hired less than a year ago. The Washington Nationals are looking like a real problem.
Clay Holmes
It’s potentially a really bad fit given the Phillies infield defense but Clay Holmes feels like a really good target for what the Phillies are looking for in a back-end starter that could be useful in October.
Since joining the New York Mets, Holmes has carried a 3.26 ERA in the 218.1 innings he’s pitched for them, mostly as a starter. He is a different pitcher from his days as a high leverage arm for the Yankees, adding a kick-change that has worked very well to left handed hitters. He traded in his slider for a curveball and more cutters to right handed hitters.
He is a classic sinker-ball starter that relies on his defense to make plays behind him as a starter. He limits barrels but has not generated the same swing-and-miss. It is a weird bet but he is a big upgrade over the Brian Keller bullpen games the Phillies are currently running.
The big bet here will come in October if the Phillies make it there. We know what Holmes is like as a reliever; he threw two ticks harder than he does now, which led to less damage and more strikeouts. He did that without the plus changeup as a Yankees reliever either.
While Holmes is coming off injury and there is some risk because he hasn’t pitched in the majors since the middle of May, it still feels like a good bet to make with the cost being viewed as a rental since he will almost certainly opt-out when the season ends.
The results are in on the Brandon Marsh for Logan O’Hoppe swap in 2022. The Phillies fleeced them, getting a strong-side platoon corner outfielder, who has played an ok center field for stretches, for a catcher in O’Hoppe that is not good enough defensively to catch or good enough offensively to play first base.
Since Marsh joined the Phillies, he’s been worth 10.0 bWAR and was recently named an all-star earlier this month. O’Hoppe has just 2.6 bWAR over that same span and has been trending poorly over the last two seasons. There is just not much else to say when discussing the trade. The Phillies pretty obviously got the better end of the deal and Marsh has been their best outfielder since the day he joined.
MIAMI, FLORIDA - JULY 27: Otto Lopez #6 of the Miami Marlins runs to first base against the Philadelphia Phillies during the second inning of the game at loanDepot park on July 27, 2026 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Marlins are willing to move players, including their best hitter. Let’s talk about Otto Lopez.
You can view our larger trade deadline piece here as we discuss a wider pool of options the Guardians may consider. To make my position clear, I expect the Guardians to make smaller moves, like trading Bo Naylor and getting a castoff/undervalued reliever. But, in the interest of exploring potential larger moves, we are doing a series looking at some of those bigger names. So far, we have discussed Spencer Steer, Luis Arraez, Shea Langeliers, Taylor Ward, Heliot Ramos, Jo Adell, Ty France, Tyler Soderstrom, Heriberto Hernandez, Kyle Stowers and Alec Burleson. Although the Guardians’ greatest need is hitting, the market is aflush with starting pitching so it also may make sense for the Guardians to see if they can find a good value there, as we wrote here and looked at specifically with Jose Soriano and Reid Detmers.
Lopez is a right-handed hitter who is almost 28 years old and having the best season of his life with a 131 wRC+ as a good shortstop, putting up 4.4 fWAR so far. For his career, he has a 103 wRC+ with a 14.8/6.2 K/BB%. Weirdly for his career, he has a 77 wRC+ against LHP and 113 wRC+ vs RHP. He has figured southpaws out this season to the tune of a 156 wRC+ and I do think that is probably something he can continue to do well (reverse splits are very rare so his early struggles against lefties were probably just small sample size).
Lopez is a good defender at second (15 DRS, 22 OAA) and short (14 DRS, 5 OAA). He has also stolen 47 of 61 bases over the past three seasons, so he is a threat there. He is under team control through 2029.
Lopez is a great trade target. I think he Will offer good defense and above average hitting for the length of his arbitration years. But, the Marlins are only making him available because 1. He is having a late breakout year, and 2. He is almost 29. Both of those are reasons to not want to pay a premium return to acquire Lopez… which is why I remain skeptical he gets moved.
Lopez probably requires the equivalent of two top 100 prospects. Like… are the Guardians wiling to trade Travis Bazzana and Braylon Doughty and potentially toss in Daniel Espino to get Lopez? I would say (rightly) not. And if the Marlins can’t secure that kind of return, I don’t know why they would trade Lopez.
But, hey, if the Marlins can be made to consider a more reasonable return based on Lopez’s career numbers, I am offering Genao and their choice of a dominant minor league arm not named Braylon Doughty. And, hey, another lotto ticket of their choice. Lopez would move Bazzana to DH until Bazzana can learn outfield. It looks like Bazzana can handle DHing, so that would work.
As you can probably tell, I find this deal unlikely. But I love Otto and would love to be wrong. Do us a favor and give us, Lopez, Peter B!
Let me know what you think about Lopez in the comments below
The Cubs will not face old friend Cody Bellinger in this series, as the Yankees outfielder hit the injured list this week with a hamstring strain.
Also, as you likely know, the Yankees are spending an entire week in Chicago, having just split with the White Sox in a four-game series on the South Side. You know, not once since interleague play began have the Cubs ever done this in one of the two-team markets (New York, Los Angeles, and before 2025, the Bay Area). Don’t know why.
For more on the Yankees, here’s Dani Mohr, manager of our SB Nation Yankees site Pinstripe Alley.
There are several crucial takeaways to note after the Yankees wrapped up the series against the White Sox. With another loss in 11 innings on Thursday, the Pinstripes officially have the worst MLB record in extras (1-8).
With the trade deadline looming, there are a lot of discussions on what the Yankees’ current bullpen and offense bring to the table.
Despite Cam Schlittler ending his scoreless-inning streak with his exit in the seventh inning on Wednesday night, the bullpen went out and put up a decent fight. Tim Hill was one of the crucial standouts, recording a clutch strikeout against Munetaka Murakami to force the 11th inning. The Yankees ultimately lacked on defense but attempted to make up for it in a late offensive surge. However, it was all for naught as Edgar Quero recorded the walk-off single in the 12th.
Ryan Weathers picked up the slack on Thursday and threw for seven scoreless innings, which later forced the Yankees into extras once again. After Cruz ended the game with a bases-loaded walk-off walk in the 11th, the bullpen is likely all but exhausted. There are reportedly many potential trade targets circulating the rumor mill that could provide a much-needed boost.
Looking ahead to face the Cubs, it is essential that Will Warren keeps Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, and Ian Happ from gaining an early edge. Fried will also need to bounce back after his last outing, in which he allowed five hits and three runs in three innings. Wrapping up the series on Sunday, Cole is tasked with building upon his momentum in the Windy City.
The absence of Judge, Bellinger, and Stanton from this Yankees offense is also deeply felt and appears difficult to overcome. With some inconsistency throughout the lineup during the last series, the focus will need to shift towards establishing dominance early and allowing the bullpen to step into a low-pressure situation.
Fun facts
Since 1876, first year of the National League, the Cubs have played regular-season games against 53 teams. Their winning percentage against the Yankees is the worst of all: .321 (9-19).
The Cubs also are 0-8 vs. the Yankees in the World Series (1932 and 1938).
The Cubs were .388 (38-60-5) vs. the National League’s Baltimore Orioles in 1892-99. They are .400 (16-24) vs. the Tigers. ….. The Cubs have won only one previous series vs. the Yankees at Wrigley Field: the first of its kind, in 2003, when they lost, 5-3, then won, 5-2 and 8-7.
They lost two of three in 2011, split a pair in 2014 and dropped all three in 2017.
In their most recent meeting at Wrigley, in 2024, the Cubs were shut out, 3-0 and 2-0, before salvaging the final game, 2-1, making their record 5-9 when hosting the Yankees.
Saturday: David Peterson, LHP (3-1, 5.06 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 5.14 FIP in five starts with Cubs; 6-7, 5.80 ERA, 1.521 WHIP, 4.22 FIP in 21 games overall) vs. Max Fried, LHP (4-3, 3.23 ERA, 1.019 WHIP, 2.58 FIP)
Friday: 1:20 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network, MLB Network (outside the Cubs and Yankees market territories)
Saturday: 6:15 p.m. CT, Fox-TV (regional — coverage map, note that this is basically going to the entire USA except the areas around the teams in the backup game, the Diamondbacks and Guardians). A reminder that if you subscribe to MLB.TV or MLB Extra Innings, you can watch this game via those services even if it’s not on the Fox affiliate in your market. Announcers: Adam Amin, A.J. Pierzynski, Adam Wainwright and Ken Rosenthal.
Sunday: 1:20 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network. Of interest to Cubs fans in the UK, this game is being carried live on BBC at 7 p.m. BST. Details here.
Prediction
The Cubs moved Imanaga into this series presumably because the Yankees are more susceptible to left-handed pitching. Hope that’s the right choice.
In any case the Cubs are hot, and so were the Yankees until the last two days, losses in extras to the White Sox. The Cubs actually are one game better than the Yankees as this series begins (62-47 to 61-48). This should be a good matchup of playoff-bound teams, and I’m going to say the Cubs will take two of three.
Up next
The Cubs host the Los Angeles Dodgers for a three-game series at Wrigley Field beginning Monday evening.
Jul 30, 2026; San Diego, California, USA; San Francisco Giants pitcher Robbie Ray (38) delivers during the first inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
According to The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly, the Giants front office tried to negotiate a trade for Robbie Ray before his scheduled start on Thursday against the Padres. But no Kyle Harrison type deal materialized at the 11th hour, and the veteran southpaw suited up and took the mound with San Francisco stitched across his chest for likely the last time.
For some, this was like tearing a Han Solo, Battle of Hoth collectible action figure out of its original packaging in the midst of an eBay bidding war. There was no benefit for the Giants, or for Ray, to have him pitch against the Padres. His value around the league was already high, especially after posting a 1.67 ERA over his last 9 appearances. Other than grabbing headlines with a no-hitter or perfect game, there wasn’t anything Ray could’ve done to really raise his trade value to contending teams. The risk far out-weighed the rewards.
Luckily, his arm didn’t explode. And there will be some fans that will buy a Robbie Ray Giants jersey on the official MLB shop after his coming trade (heavily discounted, of course), because, amongst the fog of distractions, the veteran took the mound anyway, arm-combustion be damned. As Tony Vitello put it in his pregame presser: “There is the field of speculation, and the field of competing.” The future isn’t guaranteed. Legacies are made in the present. Throwing a baseball isn’t a risk, it’s what got him in this position in the first place.
Right before he strode out onto the field in the 1st, Ray paused on the top step of the dugout and took one long final pull on his signature pre-start cigarillo. He shook out his mane of black hair, pulled the brim of his hat low over his eyes and growled so the whole team could hear: “I’m not a show pony. I’m a workhorse,” before trotting out onto the field.
Ray didn’t throw a no-hitter, nor did he take a line-drive to his throwing elbow. The game went down without incident and as expected considering the 34 year old’s performance over the last two months: 6 innings pitched in which he allowed 1 run on 4 hits while striking out 6. He’s now 6-0 over his last ten games, his slightly lowered 1.65 ERA is the third lowest in the Majors since the beginning of June.
The outing reflected Ray’s shifting approach on the mound. No longer is a grunt-and-heave type power arm, brazenly reliant on strikeouts bagged by his rising four-seamer and hard slider. Ray still grunts, but the heave part has become a little more nuanced. His 35% four-seam usage is the lowest point of his career. What’s filled in the gaps is a change-up and sinker. Those new adaptations, along with his somewhat goofy knuckle curve, were on full-display in San Diego. Of the 86 pitches thrown, only two of them were sliders.
While his strikeouts have fallen (his 21% K-percentage is the lowest it’s been in his entire career), so has his hard-hit rate. Being okay pitching to contact, thanks in part to new pitch-types and heavier options like the sinker and change, has given him another exit route through tough innings. He’s more dynamic and harder for opposing hitters to pin down and box-in.
We saw this in the 2nd inning when the Padres threatened to load the bases with no outs. A wayward four-seam hit Ty France to lead off the frame, then Jackson Merrill followed with an excuse-me bloop single off one of the only sliders thrown. With two on, Ray found himself in a 3-2 count to Luis Campusano. The inning had all the trappings of a Robbie Ray classic: one which would drag on and on, with many deep counts and four-seamers fouled away and away as Ray’s pitch count rises, effectively sinking his chances of pitching through the 5th.
That didn’t happen here. While Ray didn’t use one of his newer offerings, the fact that he had shown Camusano three change-ups and had established his sinker in the zone earlier in the at-bat gave his signature four-seam more of a bite. The Padres’ catcher couldn’t just sit on the pitch. Perhaps if Campusano didn’t have to worry about covering the outside of the plate because of the sinker, or covering the possibility of another change-up, he could’ve turned on the straight fastball and launched it into the bricks of the Western Metal Supply building. Instead, it jammed him and rolled into an inning-changing double play.
Xander Bogaerts still punched in the run anyway by rolling a single away from a shifted infield — but it’d be all the Padres get. A run, but on one pitch. And on one more after that, Ray was out of the inning thanks to Christian Koss’s fine barehanded play on a Jake Croeneworth bunt attempt.
16 pitches in total. That proved to be Ray’s most laborious inning until his final inning of work in the 6th when he threw 20. Knowing that the inning would be his last, Ray wanted to end things as a Giant on his terms. After Luis Rengifo reached second with a one-out double — San Diego’s first and only extra base hit of the night — he shifted into another gear. He worked his way back from a 3-0 count to Manny Machado and got him to swing-through a challenge sinker over the heart of the plate. He then got Ty France helplessly digging after a 1-2 change-up in the dirt.
Runner stranded. Inning over. Outing over. Time as a Giant — most likely over.
Ray was able to take home the win thanks to his battery mate Daniel Susac. After launching his first two career home runs in San Francisco, Susac clearly didn’t want to lose the feeling. A dinger is a dangerous drug. He probably took the red bat he used with him on the plane (“No, no, no, this isn’t a bomb,” he explained to the TSA agent. “It drops them.”), buckling it into the seat next to him, ordering it a complimentary beverage (club soda, please) on the brief flight down to San Diego. They probably spent some quality time together after checking-in at the hotel. A nice dinner in the Gaslamp followed by a moonlit walk along Harbor Drive, talking about everything, and nothing.
By the time the 2nd inning rolled around and Susac’s spot in the order had come up, lefty starter JP Sears didn’t have a chance. A bond had been formed: Danny Susac and his red wooden bat were ready to take on the world. Sears recognized this and understood resistance was futile. “Here, destroy this 93 MPH fastball,” he said, and Susac and his red wooden bat obliged.
That two-run homer was really the only clear offensive statement the Giants could muster in a frustrating game for the line-up.
Opportunities to blow the game open were ripe for the picking, and would ultimately rot on the vine.At least two runners would reach base in 7 of 9 innings. The line-up were 0-for-9 with runners in scoring position, leaving 11 runners stranded.
It wasn’t completely their fault. The game started with Fernando Tatis Jr. rather annoyingly robbing Rafael Devers of a 3-run homer, which is, rather spookily, something he had done before…in San Diego…in the 1st inning…with JP Sears pitching.
Devers had to settle for a sacrifice fly — which became a theme.
After Susac recouped the difference of the Tatis robbery, his sacrifice fly in the 5th was the only other run San Francisco would score. The kid had just 5 RBIs in all of April, 6 in May, and 3 in June — he’s got 7 in the last two games, and three home runs in his last 5 plate appearances.
Four runs were plenty with Ray on the mound.
And I guess, no matter how you think teams should manage trade-chip arms before the deadline, or who had the final decision, one should respect what Ray did: He pitched, and he pitched well, because that’s what he’s paid to do, and he just might like doing it too.
Other guys (*cough* Blake Snell *cough cough*) wouldn’t have.
The St. Louis Cardinals (54-55) open a three-game series north of the border tonight against the Toronto Blue Jays (50-59) at Rogers Centre. It is a strange day for both clubs with the Trade Deadline looming. Both clubs enter the weekend trying to reverse disappointing seasons and stay relevant in their respective postseason races or the selloff will happen prior to Monday’s 3P deadline. St. Louis sits fourth in the NL Central, 13½ games behind Milwaukee, while Toronto is fifth in the AL East, 14½ games behind division-leading Tampa Bay. More pertinent is each club’s standing in their respective Wild Card races. The Jays sit 5.5 games behind Cleveland for the final Wild Card spot while the Cards are three back of the Phillies in the NL Wild Card race.
The Cardinals arrive in Toronto after dropping yesterday's series finale to the Cubs in ten innings, 4-2. St. Louis lost three of four to the Cubs and is just 3-7 in their last ten games. The Jays were off yesterday after taking two of three from the Nationals in Washington, DC. Despite taking that series, Toronto has won just four of their last ten games.
St. Louis will hand the ball to right-hander Kyle Leahy (7-4, 3.55 ERA) tonight. Leahy has been particularly sharp recently. Over his last three starts, the righthander has allowed three earned runs over 15 innings. In those starts he has struck out 15 hitters while walking only one. Toronto counters with their ace and one of the favorites for the Cy Young, Dylan Cease (7-5, 2.46 ERA). The first-year Blue Jay is coming off arguably his best outing of the year. He threw a complete-game one-hit shutout and struck out 12 Red Sox at Fenway last Saturday. Cease has 30 strikeouts over his last three starts.
Lets dive into tonight’s matchup and find a sweat or two.
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Game Details and How to Watch: Cardinals vs. Blue Jays
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The Latest Odds: Cardinals vs. Blue Jays
The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:
Moneyline: St. Louis Cardinals (+153), Toronto Blue Jays (-187)
Spread: Cardinals +1.5 (-136), Blue Jays -1.5 (+113)
Total: 7.5 runs
Starting Pitchers and their Stats: Cardinals vs. Blue Jays for July 31
Blue Jays: Dylan Cease Season Totals: 113.1 IP, 7-5, 2.46 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 167K, 48 BB
Who’s Hot? Who’s Not! Cardinals vs. Blue Jays
Ivan Herrera is 4-7 in his career against Dylan Cease
Kazuma Okamoto has hit in 3 straight (5-11) and 5 of his last 6 games (8-25)
George Springer is riding a 5-game hitting streak (7-20)
Nathan Lukes was 2-10 in the series against Washington
JJ Wetherholt was 4-15 in the series against the Cubs
Masyn Wynn has hit safely in 5 of his last 6 games (8-23)
Alejandro Kirk homered in his lone AB against Kyle Leahy
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Top Betting Trends & Insights: Cardinals vs. Blue Jays
The Cardinals are 59-50 on the Run Line this season
The Jays are 48-61 on the Run Line this season
The OVER has cashed an MLB-worst 43 times in games involving the Cardinals this season (43-60-6)
The OVER has cashed 54 times in games involving the Blue Jays this season (54-51-4)
Expert picks & predictions: Cardinals vs. Blue Jays
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Here are the best bets our model is projecting for tonight’s game between the Cardinals and the Blue Jays:
Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
Spread: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Blue Jays on the Run Line.
Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total OVER 7.5.
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