Tampa Bay debuted as the Devil Rays in 1998 and made the franchise's first World Series appearance in 2008, losing to the Philadelphia Phillies. The team got back to the Fall Classic in the 2020 pandemic season, falling against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Last Rays World Series appearances
2008: Lost in five games to Philadelphia Phillies
2020: Lost in six games to Los Angeles Dodgers
When does the World Series start?
Game 1 of the 2026 World Series is scheduled for Friday, Oct. 23 at American Family Field in Milwaukee.
World Series schedule
Game 1: Friday, October 23 — 8:00 PM ET, at Milwaukee
Game 2: Saturday, October 24 — 8:00 PM ET, at Milwaukee
Game 3: Monday, October 26 — 8:00 PM ET
Game 4: Tuesday, October 27 — 8:00 PM ET
Game 5 (if necessary): Wednesday, October 28 — 8:00 PM ET
Game 6 (if necessary): Friday, October 30 — 8:00 PM ET, at Milwaukee
Game 7 (if necessary): Saturday, October 31 — 8:00 PM ET, at Milwaukee
The Tampa Bay Rays and the Milwaukee Brewers are set to battle for the 2026 World Series title, ensuring that Major League Baseball will crown a first-time champion this year for the first time since 1980.
As the Milwaukee Brewers gear up for their first World Series appearance in over four decades, fans across the nation are once again celebrating one of baseball’s most beloved logos: the iconic Brewers ball-in-glove.
The glove’s fingers cleverly form the letter “M,” while the palm and thumb create a distinct “B.” A white baseball is in the center, completing the design’s dual meaning. This logo was created in 1977 by Tom Meindel, a 30-year-old art student at the University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire who saw an opportunity to blend simplicity with team identity.
Meindel’s design was one of 1,932 entries submitted to a team-sponsored contest in the fall of 1977. At the time, the Brewers were seeking to rebrand after eight consecutive losing seasons, looking to replace their old “Barrelman” logo with something new. The contest inspired creativity, both good and bad, from fans and artists, but it was Meindel’s clever, modern design that captivated the judges.
The ball-in-glove logo was officially adopted in 1978, quickly becoming synonymous with the Brewers’ brand. It served as the team’s primary logo until 1993, after which the organization experimented with various designs, including new takes on the interlocking “M” and “B.”
Heritage. Hustle. Heart. Wisconsin, this is for you. #glovestory Full story: https://t.co/s1QGbQQK8q https://t.co/RBoDpwcRc9
Despite these changes, the original ball-in-glove remained a fan favorite and was regularly featured in throwback merchandise and special events. In 2020, to celebrate the team’s 50th anniversary in Milwaukee, the Brewers unveiled a reimagined version of Meindel’s classic logo as their primary mark.
Now, the Brewers will continue to proudly wear the restored logo, featuring bold navy blue coloring and a refined glove webbing on a yellow background, as they embark on their quest for a long-awaited first World Series championship.
PITTSBURGH, PA - OCTOBER 10: Bryan Rust #17 of the Pittsburgh Penguins skates during the game against the Dallas Stars at PPG PAINTS Arena on October 10, 2026 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Sargent/NHLI via Getty Images) | NHLI via Getty Images
Here are your Pens Points for this Friday morning…
The Pittsburgh Penguins snapped a four-game losing streak with a 4-0 shutout victory over the Florida Panthers on Thursday night. [Recap]
General manager Kyle Dubas shed more light on Ben Kindel’s medical situation Thursday, saying that Kindel experienced a vasovagal episode. This condition can cause fainting due to a sudden drop in blood pressure. Kindel is back in Pittsburgh and could resume some activities next week pending further tests, while forward Bryan Rust was also placed on injured reserve with an injury sustained Monday; Pittsburgh recalled forward Rutger McGroarty and defenseman Chase Pietila from Wilkes-Barre/Scranton to fill the roster spots. [PensBurgh]
Diving deeper into Rust’s injury, he will be reevaluated in six weeks after sustaining a lower-body injury during Monday’s game. Rust, who has five points in seven games this season, is expected to miss significant time, creating another challenge for Pittsburgh’s offense as the team deals with multiple injuries. [PensBurgh]
Rutger McGroarty’s name made the headlines after his call-up due to injuries at forward, but defenseman Chase Pietila also earned his first NHL call-up after two seasons of steady development in the Penguins’ organization. The 22-year-old impressed during training camp and has continued to progress with the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins. [Penguins]
News and notes from around the NHL…
Ottawa Senators forward Nick Cousins and Florida Panthers winger Matthew Tkachuk were fined for their roles in a heated third-period confrontation during Ottawa’s 5-1 win on Wednesday. [Sportsnet]
Former NHL forward Ron Duguay, a one-time Pittsburgh Penguin but best known for his years with the New York Rangers, died Thursday at 69 after battling stage 4 colon cancer. [NHL]
Toronto Maple Leafs captain Auston Matthews is showing signs of returning to the elite scoring form that saw him net 69 goals in 2023-24, earning teammates’ praise after a strong start to the season. [TSN]
Montreal Canadiens star forward Nick Suzuki will miss two to four weeks with an upper-body injury, the team announced Thursday, ending his ironman streak at 546 consecutive regular-season games played. [TSN]
The Islanders by and large got “goalied” last night as Darcy Kuemper held them at bay and, after the Isles erased a 2-0 deficit, the Kings kept the puck for the entire boring overtime before scoring over Semyon Varlamov’s shoulder on a Adam Pelech-facilitated screen.
That’s a bummer, man.
Varlamov wasn’t great in allowing two goals to Artemi Panarin, who still carries that heavy Stench of Ranger, but he did stop a penalty shot to keep things tie-able. Kuemper’s performance, more than Varly’s, is the reason they only got a regulation point.
And with that, their modest points streak continues, though their first win “streak” ends at two.
Islanders News
Jenny writes that the performance was there in the regulation comeback, but the Isles miss Mat Barzal in OT. [LHH]
With his tying goal, Matthew Schaefer tied Bobby Orr for teenage excellence. [Newsday | Post]
Pete DeBoer liked how they stuck with it down 0-2. [Isles]
Heeeeeeeey, new Isles puppy, ooh, ahh, I wanna know-oh-oh-oh, will gimme paw. [Isles]
Some company is really proud to partner with UBS Arena and the Isles to allow arena employees “to access wages they have already earned, with no-fee access options available.” [Isles]
Elsewhere
Thursday night’s scores included a dozen games, with several teams scoring six goals. The Red Wings beat the Canucks in the Battle of Sadness.
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl each had five points as the Oilers beat the defending champs, though Evan “Norris candidate” Bouchard was embarrassingly walked by Seth Jarvis, then gave up on the play. [TSN]
Kyper’s got a whole long list of names on the trade board already. That rising cap and disgruntled players really may open up some movement. [Sportsnet]
After 546 consecutive games to start his career, Nick Suzuki will finally miss some due to injury. [NHL]
Move over, Mikko Koskinen, there’s a new tallest-ever goalie, Cooper Black of the Panthers at 6’9”. [Sportsnet]
Ye gods, I’m still catching up on just how well the Senators fans booed and chanted at Brady Tkachuk all during his return to Ottawa a few nights ago. At one point a bunch of old Sens Tkachuk jerseys even rained down on the ice. It was borderline Tavares-returns-to-Long Island. Five stars, top show, I hope all of Toronto’s media is disgusted by the classless treatment.
What’s the funniest NHL arena chant you’ve ever heard?
“F*ck your Podcast” at the Tkachuks may be the funniest chant I’ve ever heard in the NHL. pic.twitter.com/FDRiuoEbwn
randy talking about the chants against brady tkachuk last night and drew absolutely dying the whole time but saying bradys balding was too far LMAOO I CANT pic.twitter.com/0STuV6bvCp
But just because something’s lightly watched doesn’t make it any less aesthetically pleasing. So perhaps we should look at this Rays-Brewers World Series like an indie film at your local art house theater, light on the box office haul but thick with intrigue.
After all, these are the two best teams in baseball, evidenced both by regular season performance (103 wins for the Brewers, 98 for the Rays) and playoff dominance (Brewers 7-1, Rays 7-2). There is star power, in Tampa Bay slugger (and home run trot aficionado) Junior Caminero and Jacob Misiorowski, the Brewers ace who lives life somewhere around 102 mph on the radar gun.
Why watch? We posed this question to a handful of Rays and Brewers:
Baseball the way it oughta be
The Rays strike out less than any team in baseball - and led the majors with 45 sacrifice bunts. The Brewers were fifth with 37 – and fifth in stolen bases, with 162.
“I feel like if you want to see great baseball – you want to see all facets of the game, small ball and hitting homers, great pitching, great defense – I feel like this is a World Series for you. A style in which the game was originally invented to be played. I feel like this is a great World Series to watch.”
-Chandler Simpson, Rays outfielder
Pass the baton
Don’t call it small ball. Both teams have plenty of ways to beat you offensively yet also carry potentially dominant starting pitching – from the towering Misiorowski to an old friend the Brewers know well: Rays Game 3 starter Freddy Peralta, who spent nine seasons in Milwaukee.
"It will be an old-fashioned baseball game. Obviously, both teams are capable of hitting the home run, having the big moment. But you’re going to see a lot more team baseball. I like to call it California baseball – I grew up with bunting, hit-and-runs. Both teams are very capable of doing a lot of things.
“I’m lucky to get a front row seat to the Miz. But the old teammate, Freddy – I know how much this series is going to mean to him. Hopefully we get the best of him, but I’d like to see him pitch this series.”
Jake Bauers, the NLCS MVP, cycled through five organizations before sticking with the Brewers. Half the Rays’ pitching staff was not with the club at the start of 2025 and their ace, Drew Rasmussen, has undergone three major arm surgeries.
“I feel like there’s a lot of personalities within this team that relate to fans in general and casual fans. I look around and I see a bunch of guys where nothing was given to them. They worked hard for every single thing they’ve ever had.”
-Cedric Mullins, Rays outfielder
No need for the longball
Sure, Junior Caminero has hit 87 home runs the past two seasons. The Brewers have five guys with at least 18. Yet the teams’ respective pitching staffs have given up the third-fewest (Brewers) and ninth-fewest (Rays) home runs to opponents. Lock in.
“I think you’re going to get some of the best baseball in this series. You think about a lot of these teams, it’s a lot more slug, this and that. Us and them, we just match up really good against each other. I think it’s going to be a lot of baseball, instead of a lot of home runs.
“I’m just ready to be a part of it and battle our butts off to win a World Series.”
-Chad Patrick, Brewers right-hander
Small markets, huge stars
There’s just one player on either squad – Brewers veteran Christian Yelich – making more than $20 million per season. The Brewers hail from the 38th-largest market in the country, while the Rays’ region is bifurcated geographically. Yet the Rays eliminated the Yankees and the Brewers knocked out the Dodgers and they have plenty of stars in their own right.
“Just appreciating the game of baseball. Two smaller-market, quote-unquote small-ball teams. There’s going to be a lot of really good pitching, a lot of really good defense. Just really appreciating the game of baseball as a whole. People will really enjoy it.
“So many of our guys are so exciting to watch. (Second baseman) Richie) Palacios is having a great postseason. Chandler is lightning in a bottle. Junior is a highlight anytime he steps on the field. Any of our pitchers – they’re all doing great. “On the other side, you’ve got Misiorowski throwing 100 all the time. Brice Turang – what a great player. It’s going to be a good series to watch.”
TAMPA, FL - FEBRUARY 22: Austin Wells #28 and Cody Bellinger #35 of the New York Yankees pose for a photo during spring training at Himes Complex on February 22, 2026 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by New York Yankees/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Daily News | Gary Phillips: ($) With the specter of a lockout looming over the 2027 season, Hal Steinbrenner was asked during his press conference Wednesday about hit thoughts on the owners’ salary cap proposal. The Yankees owner bristled at the questions, citing a desire to hold on discussing labor issues until after the World Series is complete while conceding that, as a member of the league’s labor policy committee, “I helped craft, one of many, the proposals that we have given at the bargaining table, and I support those proposals in their entirety.” Left unanswered is how a salary cap (and with it, potentially, a salary floor) could possibly give one of the league’s highest spenders a better chance to win, a refrain he returned to frequently as his top priority.
MLB.com | Shanthi Sepe-Chupuru: Congratulations are in order for Cody Bellinger, who took home his third Fielding Bible Award Thursday. The award, presented by Sports Info Solutions and voted on by a panel of experts, recognized him as the best defensive left fielder in all of baseball. Belli’s first two awards came back in 2019 with the Dodgers, when he was honored both for his work in right field and as a multi-position player. The 31-year-old’s 21 DRS tied for third in the majors at any position despite his missing nearly a month to injury.
The Athletic | Ian O’Connor: ($) The venerable former beat writer pens a pointed critique of Steinbrenner’s leadership, arguing the Yankees’ underperformance in October goes straight to the top. He contrasts the owner’s parsing of what makes a successful season with Derek Jeter’s more direct, “If we don’t win a championship, the season is a failure,” positing that Hal’s reticence to hold anyone to task publicly trickles down to a lack of accountability at all levels of the organization. O’Connor cites Jazz Chisholm Jr. as an example; after Aaron Boone indicated he addressed concerns with the second baseman behind the scenes in 2025, he had a dreadful ‘26 punctuated by taking the field with a lollipop in his mouth and contributing a head-scratching error in the first inning of Game 2 of the ALDS as the Yankees’ season slipped away yet again.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - OCTOBER 20: Head coach Mike Brown of the New York Knicks looks on with Chris Jent and Rick Brunson during the Ring Ceremony prior to the game against the Philadelphia 76ers at Madison Square Garden on October 20, 2026 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Imagine your employer had an excellent year and you were in line for an award, one you earned through great effort, extensive travel, and long nights. Instead of receiving it, however, you’re handed an IOU note at the ceremony. Or worse, you were gotcha-ed with a fake email about the award, just to test the company’s cybersecurity.
When Vardon describes this very scenario in his latest report, he’s not talking about the slighted workers of a local plumbing supply company. He’s talking about the assistant coaches and staff of the world champion New York Knicks.
At Tuesday’s season opener, the presentation (broadcast nationally on NBC) made it appear the Knicks assistant coaches were receiving championship rings during the pregame banner ceremony. The boxes they were handed? Empty.
It came as no surprise to the assistants. They hadn’t even been fitted for rings, and the empty boxes were a token gesture so they wouldn’t feel left out. Token gestures can backfire on you, though, especially when they seem, perhaps, insincere. The Knicks coaches were upset, according to Vardon, on a scale from mild irritation to very spicy.
In quintessential Knicks fashion, the organization’s statement on the situation is, “We are not disclosing anything about the rings.” Because robots need not acknowledge the petty concerns of disposable humans.
One of the most stunning quotes from Vardon’s piece is this:
“The Athletic received conflicting information about whether head coach Mike Brown received his ring on Tuesday and could not immediately verify if he got one.”
What? We can’t confirm if coach Mike Brown got a ring? What??
The story careens off a cliff from there. Vardon notes, “Many longtime employees at Madison Square Garden, including some who work in the Knicks’ business operations, will not receive rings at all […]. Typically, most employees for NBA teams receive rings, even if they are not as fancy and expensive as the ones the players receive.” Yes, some franchises reward the plebes, but not the NBA’s second-most valuable one. Enter Gordon Gekko, stage left.
However, in September, MSG sent employees a fake championship ring offer. The email congratulated recipients and invited them to select one of two complimentary ring designs: “Championship Gold” or “Garden Classic.” But ha on you, fools! The email was actually an internal phishing test. Employees who clicked the link were assigned mandatory cybersecurity training rather than receive a ring.
What kind of cold, villainous monster says, “You know how we’re not giving the employees championship rings? One hilarious way to test our cybersecurity would be….”
Oh, the team ain’t hurting for money. The Knicks reportedly generated $640 million in revenue during their championship season, while the franchise’s estimated valuation climbed 29% to $12.6 billion, making it the NBA’s second-most valuable team.
Giving New York the benefit of the doubt, those rings must be difficult to manufacture. Designed by Jason Arasheben of Jason of Beverly Hills, the Knicks’ blingy ring features roughly 800 diamonds and sapphires totaling 22 carats, set in white gold. Its elaborate design includes a mechanical pop-up replica of Madison Square Garden, 16 emerald-cut diamonds representing the team’s playoff victories, and a 0.16-carat diamond set in the Larry O’Brien Trophy. One cannot gaze for long upon the ring before weeping, and it must be returned to Mount Doom post haste!
The Knicks won in mid-June, leaving about four months for design, contract, and construction. That’s a tight schedule. Delays aren’t unprecedented in the NBA, and according to team sources, the assistants will eventually receive rings. Still, other championship teams have distributed coaches’ rings on opening night, so…
Who are we talking about, exactly? The championship coaching staff included associate head coach Chris Jent, assistants Rick Brunson, Mark Bryant, Darren Erman, Riccardo Fois, Brendan O’Connor, and TJ Saint, along with several player development coaches and advisors (including one of the greatest names in NBA history, the legendary Mo Cheeks!). These were among the people who helped deliver New York’s first NBA championship in 53 years.
To recap: What should have been a celebration of the Knicks’ victory instead exposed tiresome and familiar organizational dysfunction, with coaches handed empty boxes and longtime employees subjected to a misleading phishing exercise. Team owner James Dolan proves once again to be tone-deaf, and this time not by singing at the mic.
A franchise worth billions, a championship decades in the making, and apparently not enough goodwill to go around. How come they win it all and still feel like LOLKnicks?
The Rays and Brewers are both aiming for their first World Series title. Composite: Guardian Pictures; MLB Photos/Getty Images; Getty Images
Is this World Series proof that money doesn’t bring (baseball) happiness?
Yes - and in fact, evidence that money actively undermines baseball happiness. For the big-market teams, anything less than a World Series is disappointing. Whereas for the Rays (who in April were given a 1.1% chance of winning the World Series by FanGraphs) or Brewers (2.1%), the season is already a success, and winning it all would give their fans more pleasure than a Yankees or Dodgers fan could ever experience. Alan Evans
No. It’s does offer proof that October remains gloriously resistant to being bought outright. But money buys depth and insurance, even if it can’t guarantee that your $300m hitters won’t spend an off week grounding into double plays. Better to enjoy this peach of a matchup – only the second Fall Classic since 1920 where a first-time winner is guaranteed – without letting baseball’s billionaire owner class weaponize it in the coming labor fight, with a salary cap on the table and the sport potentially heading for another protracted lockout. Bryan Armen Graham
Yes. High-end talent is nice, but to get to the World Series on a shoestring budget you also need a certain culture. There shall be no tolerating careless mistakes, no getting too comfortable in cushy MLB dugouts, and players must have a clear understanding of their roles and the brand of baseball they’re expected to play. That’s where Milwaukee and Tampa Bay have truly excelled this season. David Lengel
Schedule
Best-of-seven series. All times US Eastern Daylight Time (EDT.
Fri 23 Oct Game 1: Tampa Bay at Milwaukee, 8pm (Fox)
Sat 24 Oct Game 2: Tampa Bay at Milwaukee, 8pm (Fox)
Mon 26 Oct Game 3: Milwaukee at Tampa Bay, 8pm (Fox)
Tue 27 Oct Game 4: Milwaukee at Tampa Bay, 8pm (Fox)
Wed 28 Oct Game 5: Milwaukee at Tampa Bay, 8pm* (Fox)
Fri 30 Oct Game 6: Tampa Bay at Milwaukee, 8pm* (Fox)
Sat 31 Oct Game 7: Tampa Bay at Milwaukee, 8pm* (Fox)
*-if necessary
How to watch
In the US, all World Series games will air on Fox and Fox Deportes, with streaming available through Fox One. In the UK, the series will be carried by TNT Sports. In Australia, fans can watch on ESPN, with streaming available through Disney+ and Kayo Sports.
What the Brewers need to do to win
Jacob Misiorowski may be the best pitcher in the world, but the cliché that “bullpens win championships” is more true than ever in modern baseball. Luckily for Milwaukee, theirs is one of the best in the game – only the Yankees had a better collective regular season earned run average – and the sweep of the Dodgers means everyone will be starting on full rest. AE
Make Tampa Bay chase. Milwaukee have the pitching to win this series, but asking them to weather seven nights of high-leverage situations with traffic on the basepaths is inviting trouble. Get ahead in counts, limit free passes and force the Rays to string hits together. The fewer opportunities Tampa Bay have to improvise, the better the Brewers’ chances. BAG
The Brewers bullpen is lights out but don’t ask them to do too much. The Rays will try to pile up reliever innings in a bid to weaken the core. Also, Game 4 in Tampa will be a bullpen game for Milwaukee, so make sure the unit is kept fresh for that pivotal matchup. DL
What the Rays need to do to win
Be inventive. Ace Shane McClanahan is injured, but their occasional gambit of using opening pitchers is arguably even more of a power move in a single series at the very end of the season. As for batting, if any two of the “big three” of Yandy Díaz, Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero find their groove at the same time, they’ll be hard to keep quiet. AE
Turn every baserunner into a problem. Swipe a bag, take the extra base and make Milwaukee’s fielders execute under pressure. But don’t confuse small ball with giving away outs: Díaz, Aranda and Caminero still need to supply damage. The best version of the Rays makes opponents defend everything, including the outfield seats. BAG
Ensure the big three are up and running against the Brewers rotation. When Caminero, Díaz and Aranda struggled in the ALCS, the Guardians took two games and sent Rays fans searching for the nearest cliff. Kevin Cash also must excel in the dugout against healthy competition in Pat Murphy, who won’t make Dave Roberts-like mistakes. DL
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One bold prediction
Tampa Bay will clinch the title wearing their Devil Rays throwback jerseys, and within a year will revert to that as the franchise name. They went 12-3 in the regular season wearing them and are now 2-0 in the postseason. If it happens, fan demand will make it hard for the newish owners to resist. AE
Someone will lose a game after pulling a starter who looks untouchable, and the ensuing argument will briefly eclipse the actual World Series. The manager will point to the matchups, the broadcast will show the abandoned pitcher staring into space and everyone will pretend the alternative outcome was a matter of certainty. (And for Tampa Bay fans, it could be déjà vu.) BAG
Club Tropicana by Wham! becomes the theme song for the Rays and this World Series as the dumpy dome in St Pete becomes the epicenter of the October sports world. Tampa win in seven tight games and fall in love with the worst venue in all of Major League Baseball. They take a 180 turn on the Trop and demand that their new owners drop plans for a new stadium. Talk about bold! DL
World Series MVP
Chandler Simpson, Tampa Bay. He’s become the talisman of a team increasingly focused on small ball, and is well on his way to becoming a folk hero for his homer-averse approach. Tight games are often decided by small margins such as a stolen base or a timely bunt. If it happens two or three times at key moments, the underdog could finally have his day. AE
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay. There’s a temptation to choose someone whose candidacy explains the Rays’ entire organizational philosophy. I’ll take the less complicated option: the hitter who can put the ball into the seats with the purist-rankling, time-expanding home-run trot. In a series of infinitesimal margins, one emphatic swing can turn the whole thing. BAG
Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay. Like Freddy Peralta, Drew Rasmussen has spent some time in a Brewers jersey, and has benefited from whatever they’re sprinkling on pitchers in Tampa. The 31-year-old righty was a sixth-round pick who can miss bats and hit his spots with ease. In this World Series, he will reach the pinnacle. DL
Your winner will be ...
Rays 4-3 Brewers. There’s not much between the teams, but the Rays have surpassed every expectation this season and easily won the toughest division in baseball. It’s close to a tossup, but the Rays’ versatility and Cash’s managerial nous might be enough to edge it. AE
Rays 4-3 Brewers. Milwaukee have the pitching to make every run feel precious, but I trust the Rays’ ability to manufacture offense to make the difference in a series where margins will be razor-thin. There’s something about this matchup that reminds me of the 1991 World Series between the Twins and Braves: Great Lakes v South, two evenly matched teams with no obvious weaknesses and barely a whisker between them. Expect seven games of mounting tension, managerial second-guessing and repeated reminders that neither of these teams arrived here by accident. BAG
Rays 4-3 Brewers. How could it not go seven? They’re so close in culture and approach that you’d be shocked if either of these teams went down without a fight. The Rays have just a little bit more, and a slight advantage at skipper with Kevin Cash. It’ll be super tight: Rays in seven. DL
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - SEPTEMBER 23: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. #27 of the Toronto Blue Jays watches the game in the seventh inning during game two of a double header against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 23, 2026 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images) | Getty Images
On Tuesday, I looked at historical comps to Vladimir Guerrero jr.’s miserable 2026 season. The takeaway was that this kind of collapse is rare, occurring just about 1% of the time for players under 30 who don’t miss major time due to injury, that a lot of players who fall off a cliff like that never fully recover, but that Vlad’s youth, health, and the fact that the drop almost all came from power issues rather than walks or strikeouts means he has better than average odds of recovering. Today, I want to dig a little bit into what actually drove his 2026 fall off.
The first thing to look at is whether there’s a significant shift in how he was pitched. The graph below shows the pitch types he’s seen by season in his career. The big thing to note is that over time he’s seeing somewhat fewer four-seamers and steadily more sinkers, with the two pitches almost equal in 2026. That makes sense, as Vlad’s weakness at the plate has always been the ability to elevate the ball. In his career, he has a -3 degree launch angle against sinkers compared to 14 degrees against four-seamers. He still hits sinkers very hard, but he struggles to elevate them enough to do damage.
I don’t think pitch mix is a huge contributor to his 2026 struggles, though. For one, he has a .873 career OPS against sinkers, so while he’s not as good against them as four-seamers it isn’t as if they eat him up. For another, He hit the sinkers he saw this year pretty well (.849 OPS) but fell off against four seamers (.873, compared to .964 in his career).
The shift also doesn’t look to be related to where pitchers attacked him. He actually saw more fastballs and off-speed pitches in the heart of the zone this season, compared to the last two:
Instead, I think the issue lies with his timing. Vlad swings extremely hard, and that didn’t change this season. His 76.3mph average bat speed was in the 92nd percentile among qualified hitters, and while it was just slightly slower than 2025 it was significantly harder than 2023 or 2024. He has a relatively flat swing, with a 29 degree tilt that’s 3 degrees below mlb average. That number was up one degree from 2024 and 2025, but the difference isn’t substantial. His swing also didn’t get any longer. All in all, it doesn’t look like he changed his swing meaningfully this year.
What did change was the type of contact he made. Vlad didn’t swing and miss more this season. In fact, his 82% contact rate was a career best and in the 73rd percentile in MLB, which is impressive for a player who swings as hard as he does. That contact wasn’t nearly as good, though. The panel below shows an assortment of swing metrics, comparing his 24-25 results to this year. His bat speed is about the same, with a few less average swings and slightly more extremely hard ones. His attack angle, which is the angle the barrel of the bat is traveling when it hits the ball, shows a significant shift, though. He hit a lot more balls on the downswing and fewer in positive territory, especially the 0-10 degree range. He is attack direction, which measures the horizonal direction of the barrel at contact, shows that he went up the middle and slightly the other way less often, and pulled the ball a bit more. Relatedly, his contact depth shifted forward, meaning he was meeting the ball out in front of the plate more often. All these signs point to him being a little in front of or behind the pitch more often, and meeting it at the ideal point less. The last plot shows the result. Squared-up fraction is the percentage of the maximum possible exit velocity (based on how fast the bat and ball are moving) that the batter achieves. Anything over 80% is considered squared up, meaning the batter got most of the possible impact on the ball. Vlad’s squared up fraction dropped in 2026, and the share of balls he really nailed, with 90% or better contact quality, fell dramatically.
The result of all those changes can be seen in the heatmap below. The black shape represents roughly the combinations of launch angle and exit velocity that StatCast considers barrels, the type of batted ball that accounts for most extra base hits. The blue inside the barrel zone and the red areas just below and to the left of it show that a lot of barrels from previous seasons were either hit hard but too low, in the -10 to 10 degree area, or were at the right angle but just a little too soft.
There’s also a fair bit of red above +40 degrees and below -20 degrees. Those are angles that basically never result in useful contact. It looks like he maid more really bad contact than in past seasons, in addition to less really good contact.
My takeaway from all of this is that Vlad spent the whole season just a little off. His bat speed shows that he didn’t lose raw strength, and there’s nothing to suggest that his mechanics changed dramatically. He was just missing by a little bit, consistently. It’s surprising to have such a dramatic effect and not be able to isolate a dramatic cause, but there’s really no huge smoking gun here. It makes me wonder whether his vision really was an issue, or whether one of his nagging injuries was altering his swing just slightly, not in a way that shows up clearly in the metrics but enough to keep him from ever quite locking in.
In terms of his prognosis, I think this has to be seen as good news. If he’d lost his eye, or his bat speed, or his ability to get the bat on the ball, we’d have reason to worry that his skills had eroded in a way that wasn’t going to come back. I don’t see evidence for that, though. On the other hand, there’s no obvious fix, either. There’s no obvious adjustment to undo, or tweak that will address a revealed weakness. He just has to get right. Whether the coaching staff can help him do that this winter is maybe the single most important question facing the Blue Jays’ long term future right now.
SAN ANTONIO, TX -MARCH 8: Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs swats away a shot by Tari Eason #17 of the Houston Rockets in the first half at Frost Bank Center on March 8, 2026 in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ronald Cortes/Getty Images) | Getty Images
It may be just the second game of an 82-game regular season, but that doesn’t mean it’s too early for the San Antonio Spurs to get a bad taste out of their mouths. The bad taste in question would be their opening night loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder, which featured some dreadful shooting from the Silver and Black and included a putrid 2nd quarter where they went just 3/21 from the field.
While their opponent tonight, the Houston Rockets, aren’t considered to be in the same tier as OKC and San Antonio, they still boast a formidable roster built around the older, yet still effective enigma that is Kevin Durant and a mix of younger talent. The Rockets went 52-30 in Durant’s first year, which featured drama off the court in-season and injury woes before the season even started with the loss of starting point guard Fred VanVleet to an ACL tear that cost him his season. VanVleet is back in the fold now though and Houston is hoping that having a proper point guard in place alongside Durant, do-it-all big man Alperen Sengun, and other young talents in Jabari Smith Jr. and Amen Thompson can at least give them a fighting chance in the Western conference.
San Antonio Spurs (0-1) at Houston Rockets (1-0) October 23 2026 | 8:30 PM CT Watch: Amazon Prime | Listen: WOAI (1200 AM) Line: San Antonio -6.5
In their own home/season opener against yet another Texas opponent the Dallas Mavericks, Houston got an idea of they were missing last year with the absence of Fred VanFleet. Due largely in part to VanVleet’s injury, the Rockets played much of last year without a true, proven point guard to run their offense, relying instead on Durant and other wing players to handle the majority of the ball-security and playmaking. That arrangement led to mixed results, as the Rockets were one of the worst teams in the league last year at both protecting the ball (14.4 turnovers per game, ranked 24th) and bottom 10 in assists per game. VanVleet wasted no time showing Houston what they were missing last season, as he had 11 assists and 0 turnovers in 29 minutes in the 128-110 win over the Mavericks.
No one should have a worst taste in their mouth than Victor Wembanyama, who was practically non-existent on offense against the Thunder with a 1/13 shooting performance. Wembanyama is a generation-defining player on the defensive side of the ball and has made significant strides as an offensive player since coming into the league, but he occassionally still gets in his own head on that end of the floor, something he alluded to following the loss. With guys still finding their legs and getting their game-wind up at the dawn of a new season, there’s no reason to think that Game 1 was anything but an aberration for the French Wonder. Wembanyama averaged 23 points, 10.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and nearly 3 blocks a game in four games against Houston last season.
The highly anticipated three-guard line-up made its debut against the Thunder to somewhat mixed results. While all three had solid individual games, nothing they did was able to get the San Antonio offense out of the mud. The most glaring deficiency that was on display though was that none of them are really super willing 3-pt shooters. They shot a lackluster 5/14 from behind the arc. All 5 of the makes and 12 of those attempts came from Castle, who can get hot from time to time but really isn’t known for his shooting prowess, while Harper and Fox both went 0/2. While the bulk of the blame falls on Wembanyama’s shoulders for his poor showing in that season opener, being surrounded by good-not-great shooters who are all at their best trying to get downhill can certainly help opposing defenses keep one foot a bit closer to both the paint and Wembanyama.
If you’d like to, you may follow along with the game on our Twitter profile (@poundingtherock) or visit our Game Thread!
LeBron James previously enjoyed two spells with the Cleveland Cavaliers [Getty Images]
LeBron James says his home debut was "everything that I dreamed of and more" after the Philadelphia 76ers turned boos into cheers by overhauling a 29-point deficit to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers 114-106.
It is the largest comeback win of James' 24-season NBA career and also the largest comeback by the 76ers in the play-by-play era, which began in 1996-97.
Booed from the court after trailing 69-45 at half-time, Philadelphia took the lead for the first time with just under seven minutes remaining in the fourth quarter, with a spell of 15 unanswered points putting them 104-95 ahead.
Although the Cavaliers, one of James' three previous franchises, pulled it back to 106-102, the 76ers held firm having emphatically outscored their visitors 69-37 in the second half.
James contributed 17 points, 10 rebounds, five assists and three steals while fellow home debutant Jaylen Brown scored 17 of his 21 points in the second half, including 10 in the fourth quarter.
Tyrese Maxey top-scored for the Sixers with 32 points, with Joel Emiid adding 24.
"We got the boos. That was amazing and we deserved it. And then we got the cheers and almost blew the roof off this thing, in a good way. It was a hell of a night," said James, who joined the 76ers on a two-year contract.
The result caps off a thrilling start for James at his fourth franchise, after the Sixers defeated the New York Knicks 106-100 on the opening night of the season to spoil the defending champions' homecoming.
However, he also had to respond to criticism from President Donald Trump, who labelled the 41-year-old a "total disgrace" for not standing still during the national anthem before Tuesday's win over the Knicks.
"It must be a slow news day at the office," James said on Thursday night.
Sixers coach Nick Nurse said his side are used to tuning out such distractions, adding: "I think that goes right in with other outside noise we've already had.
"I keep saying the same thing. All I really care about is getting to the practice floor, getting them in the film room, getting them to the game floor. The focus that they've had and the intent has been outstanding."
Teddy Wilson and Tom Lambert part of 33-man group to tour Europe
Australia to face England, Scotland and Wales in Nations Championship
Son of a gun Teddy Wilson and prop Tom Lambert are the new faces in the Wallabies’ spring tour squad, which welcomes back some international reinforcements.
Coach Les Kiss on Friday unveiled his 33-man group to tour Europe for Tests next month against England, Scotland, Wales and another yet-to-be-determined side in the maiden Nations Championship finals weekend.
