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The first free agent signing Paul Toboni made was a bit of a mysterious one. He gave LHP Foster Griffin a 1-year $5.5 million deal after three excellent years in Japan. Griffin will get his first opportunity to test himself against big league competition tonight, in an exhibition game against Venezuela. 

Foster Griffin was a first round pick for the Royals back in 2014. However, things did not work out for the southpaw in the Royals organization. He did make his way to the big leagues after a long trek through the minors, but never established himself as a regular. Wanting to continue as a starter, Griffin went to Japan following the 2022 season.

In his three years pitching in NPB, Griffin was dominant. He posted a 2.57 ERA in 315.2 innings over in Japan. Griffin had his best season in 2025, posting a 1.52 ERA, but injuries limited him to just 89 innings. When he was healthy, Griffin used his deep pitch mix and command to dominate NPB hitters.

Paul Toboni signs his first Free Agent as the Nationals GM and it comes in the shape of LHP Foster Griffin

A 1 year, $5.5M deal. He is signed out of the NPB, coming over from the Yomiuri Giants

Across 315.2 IP as a SP for Yomiuri he posted a 2.57 ERA & 1.03 WHIP. 318/70 K/BB… pic.twitter.com/TwUg4CgVmB

— Baseball Unstitched (@BaseUnstitched) December 16, 2025

The biggest question mark for Griffin is whether his softer arsenal will translate to the MLB. His fastball averaged just over 90 MPH last season, which is why he could only get a relatively modest one-year deal despite elite production. As a lefty, it is easier to survive with less velocity, but it is a question mark.

Griffin made up for his lack of power with an extremely deep mix of pitches. He threw seven different pitch types last season. Griffin was able to have a different pitch mix against righties and lefties. Against righties, he leaned more on his cutter and changeup to go with the fastball. He also mixed in his sweeper, as well as a splitter and occasional curve. Griffin’s sweeper was his go to secondary against lefties. He also used a sinker to get ground balls. In Japan, Griffin learned to mix up his pitches beautifully.

Former Yomiuri Giants LHP Foster Griffin lands with Washington for one-year, $5.5M.

Great low-risk signing. He’s very much capable of overperforming the contract.

He was a top 5-10 starter in NPB on a per-inning basis in 2025. https://t.co/Kn1I3zHLsWpic.twitter.com/IfASi9RqPO

— Yakyu Cosmopolitan (@yakyucosmo) December 16, 2025

That is what we will see from him tonight against Venezuela. I actually think he will rely even more on his secondary pitches in the MLB. Nats pitchers are moving away from fastballs in general, and Griffin’s deep bag of pitches gives him plenty of non-fastball options. Griffin threw his 4-seamer about 40% of the time in Japan, and I expect that to go down even more in the big leagues.

Like a lot of guys that go to Japan, Griffin really learned to pitch over in the NPB. He talked about his evolution in an interview before he signed. It was pretty cool hearing him talk about his time in Japan. Griffin described it as a second chance at baseball. He also went into detail about some of the new pitches he learned. Like many pitchers who go to Japan, Griffin picked up a splitter. He also found a sweeper grip that worked for him over there.

Foster Griffin, who's been pitching in Japan the last few years, feels like he's gotten a second chance at baseball.

"I feel like I grew so much as a pitcher [in Japan]." pic.twitter.com/nJ1KiwfQrH

— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) November 5, 2025

Don’t get it twisted, Foster Griffin is not going to come back to the MLB looking like an ace. However, his new found craftsmanship gives him a chance to be a solid back of the rotation starter. If anything, Griffin will be tough on hitters because they don’t have the book on him yet. Hopefully, Griffin can take advantage of that and get off to a hot start. If that happens, the Nats could potentially move him at the deadline.

Griffin has been held back so far this spring, but he is finally getting a chance to show what he’s got tonight. All we have seen from Griffin is videos from live BP sessions. It is not much to go off of, but he seemed to really befuddle CJ Abrams in the one video we have of him throwing.

Foster Griffin DEALING‼️#Natitude
pic.twitter.com/SPwgiAfb45

— SleeperNationals (@SleeperNats) February 16, 2026

Venezuela will be a major first test for Griffin. They have a lot of star power in their lineup. The Venezuelans feature the likes of Ronald Acuna Jr., Salvador Perez, Eugenio Suarez and Jackson Chourio among others. This lineup is as good as any he will see in the MLB. 

I will be watching to see what his pitch mix looks like and if he is able to find a tick or two of velocity. Griffin was asked to go deep into games over in Japan. Maybe, he could tick up to 91-92 if he does not have to conserve himself as much. Every tick matters for pitchers, especially when you don’t have a ton of velocity.

Overall, Griffin is an interesting story and someone I am curious to watch. He is very likely to be in the rotation, so I want to see what the lefty has got. Griffin made a few big league appearances in 2020 and 2022. However, with his new pitches, Griffin is a different guy now. I really do not know what to expect.

Entering the season, Griffin is the wild card of the rotation. There is a chance his stuff does not translate to North America. However, the track record of pitchers who dominate in the NPB coming to the MLB is pretty strong. 

While both are soft-tossing lefties, Nats fans should not confuse Griffin for Shinnosuke Ogasawara. Griffin was much more productive in Japan, with far more swing and miss in his game. The Nats will be counting on Griffin to be a solid starter, and it is an intriguing gamble to take. I am excited to see what he has got tonight against a tough lineup.

You know the saying — yeah, that one. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice—if you fool me you can’t be fooled again.

Erm, anyway.

Look, I’m no stranger to, “You did what?“ I live in a house with two children under eight, a male orange cat (if you know, you know), two dogs that were rescued from not-so-great situations that don’t quite know how to be dogs, and, well, me. Even so, you have to think that ”take a PED-related sanction in MLB basically a calendar year after you took a prior PED-related sanction in MLB” is its own special case of a bruh moment.

What’s done is done at this point, and the Braves now need to scramble (again, for the same reason). But, technically, Jurickson Profar isn’t banned for 2027. Assuming there is a 2027 MLB season, anyway. Will the Braves just cut Profar for his duplicate transgressions? Will they somehow retain him and actually use him in 2027, even though he’ll have played for like three months in the span of over two years?

What do you think? To be clear: not what you think they should do, but what they will do.

Much news out of springtime is good. This player is debuting a new pitch. This player’s swing is looking good. This player is in—say it with me now— The Best Shape of His Life (TM).

But not all of it is. Yesterday’s news that Johan Rojas is looking at a suspension for a positive PED test is decidedly in the negative department. Unless his appeal should change MLB’s mind, Rojas may be out until June, and ineligible for the playoffs.

Rojas figured to get significant playing time for the Phillies this year. Without him, the Phillies’ already tenuous outfield situation gets even more so. That makes today’s question obvious, if unpleasant:

What should the Phillies do without Rojas?

The spring training experience is different for everyone. Veteran players head down to shake off the rust and dive into a proven routine that works year after year. Bounceback candidates appreciate the opportunity for a fresh start. Prospects relish the chance to get in on the action, while some non-roster invitees treat it like a business trip.

I’ve left out one crucial category. In my opinion, the fans have the best spring training experience. Supporters flock to sunny Sarasota to watch their favorite players perform in an intimate atmosphere. The beers cold, the vibes are strong, and baseball is back.

I just returned north after spending a long weekend watching the Orioles play in Sarasota and Bradenton. It’s a trip that I can’t recommend highly enough to the sickos like us that think about baseball 365 days a year. I’ll stop bragging now and tell you what I saw.

Mountcastle looks unbothered

Ryan Mountcastle knows what it’s like to share first base. The 29-year-old watched his platoon partner Ryan O’Hearn emerge as an All Star last season. He took a back seat last September when the team wanted to provide Coby Mayo an extended look at first. Still, neither of those compare to the current roster crunch on the right side of the infield.

Baltimore inked Pete Alonso to a five year, $155 million deal to play the role of a power hitting first baseman. We’re not talking about Mayo or Samuel Basallo logging a few starts a week. This guy made 160 appearances at first last season, and the starting position clearly belongs to Alonso moving forward.

Mountcastle has heard his name in trade rumors, but he still works for the team that drafted him in the first round of the 2015 draft. The Orioles have yet to include him and any type of deal, and teams can do a lot worse than Mountcastle as a bench bat available late in games.

Mountcastle joked around with his former teammate O’Hearn before smoking a 104 MPH double down the left field line in Bradenton. He hit multiple balls hard and continued to look like a steady defender at first. Mountcastle served as the DH the following day and ripped a single up the middle.

Rutschman can still rip

With Basallo briefly sidelined (he’s since returned to game action), Adley Rutschman made consecutive spring starts behind the plate. He worked a walk in Bradenton, but he brought his big bat to the yard on Saturday. Rutschman doubled from the left side in his first at bat before launching a deep blast from the right side of the plate.

Everyone knows the boost Rutschman can provide if he returns to form at the dish. He entered today slashing .267/.353/.533 with a pair of walks in six appearances. For what it’s worth, Sam Huff is doing what he can to justify a spot as the third catcher. Huff went deep on Saturday, has a pair of doubles under his belt, and entered today hitting .333 in limited action.

The Honeycutt hype train is back

You’ve likely heard about Vance Honeycutt’s strong start by now, but the performance is worth repeating. Honeycutt has three official at bats so far this spring, and he’s 3-for-3 with three home runs. Honeycutt destroyed a hanging slider in his only AB of the day on Saturday.

The late innings of a spring game rarely feature the best competition, but the power surge is a reminder of what the former first-round pick brings to the table. Enrique Bradfield Jr. will receive the lionshare of the early attention, but look for Honeycutt to generate more buzz with a hot start to his minor league season.

McDermott faces uphill battle

Spring training often serves as a reminder that prospects don’t always develop. Non-roster invitees are often former top-prospects from other clubs that failed to develop. The spotlight on fresh faces like Ike Irish and Aron Estrada often steals some shine from forgotten favorites like Chayce McDermott and Jud Fabian.

McDermott became the first true camp cut yesterday along with some players not expecting to compete for a roster spot. McDermott struck out the side with some increased velocity back on February 24, but things fell apart on Saturday. The righty surrendered home runs on three consecutive pitches in the eighth inning. McDermott had thrown multiple different pitches, so this wasn’t a case of him just working on a fastball or anything like that.

There’s always a place in the bullpen for a hard throwing righty with options, but McDermott will have to earn his next opportunity at Norfolk.

Defensive versatility remains a priority

The Orioles emphasis on defensive versatility has continued under new skipper Craig Albernaz. Baltimore is providing Mayo a path to playing time at third base, and he looked comfortable at the hot corner on Saturday.

Albernaz had some fun with Mayo by shifting him to shortstop for an inning, but nobody should expect to see Mayo play the six in the regular season. But Dylan Beavers in center? That’s the type of defensive work that can prove valuable over 162 games.

We live in a world that’s increasingly predetermined. From the results in your search engine, to the next spoon-fed video YouTube recommends, to the advertisements you’ll see in this very article (which by the way you’ll see a lot less of if you sign up for Over The Monster and join our little community). Equations and algorithms run our life.

Enter the Red Sox rotation, which like our lives, feels increasingly preprogramed. There SHOULD be an intriguing little battle between Johan Oviedo, Connelly Early and Payton Tolle for the final spot behind Garrett Crochet, Ranger Suarez, Sonny Gray and Brayan Bello — but is there?

Yesterday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive did an outstanding job of outlining the factors at play, and by factors I mean the reason Oviedo is almost certainly going to get the first crack at the rotation over both Early and Tolle, no matter how fabulous their stuff looks on the mound down in Fort Myers. In short, Early has to spend 35 days in the minors for the Sox to gain an extra year of control of his services in 2032, and Tolle needs to spend 46 days down there to get that same extra year of control in 2032. So guess where they’re going come April?

Last week, we did our quarterly approval polling here at Over The Monster, and one of the questions asked “Do you believe the Red Sox will play service time manipulation games with Payton Tolle and / or Connelly Early?” A whopping 77% of respondents answered “yes” to that question, which is kind of astounding when you think about it. We can see what’s happening, and we know what’s about to transpire, but few cry foul because we’re slaves to the most “efficient” way to run a ballclub.

And of course, there’s also just enough plausible deniability where a couple of things could go off script and the kids end up breaking through anyway. The first of course is injury, and that’s partially how Early and Tolle got their shot last September. The rotation thinned, the other obvious options were clear losers, and the club needed fresh arms to get to the finish line. This spring, I see five arms in front of Early and Tolle and nearly a month to go before Opening Day, so it’s not impossible a slot opens up. Stuff happens!

Secondly, Early or Tolle could agree to a team friendly contract. Look no further than last spring when Kristian Campbell made the Opening Day roster over both Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer despite not looking nearly as good as either of them in camp. And wouldn’t you know it, just days after the season started, Campbell and the club agreed to an eight-year, $60 million deal. (What an amazing coincidence! I’m sure there’s no possible way that was agreed to before camp ended and influenced who made the roster.)

In any case, those are the two most likely ways I see Early and/or Tolle making the roster out of the gate, but as far as actually pitching their way into the rotation through good ol’ fashion merit? Well, let’s just say my cynical ass has some serious doubts. In fact, the better these guys look, the more likely the Sox are to to try and wrestle away that extra year of control. It’s all part of that Cobra Effect we talked about last year with Anthony and Mayer, just playing out with a new cast of characters.

Now of course, the Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) is still right there, and in theory it should work to get these guys up in Boston right away, but Cotillo even notes in his piece, this scenario remains quote “unlikely.”

So here’s how this probably plays out: If everybody stays healthy through March, Early and Tolle will need to “work on a few more things in Worcester so they’re truly ready for major league lineups.” However, if injuries pop up, then the Sox will be “so impressed” with one or both of them and they couldn’t leave them off the roster. Here, they will have “earned” that rotation spot.

Oh, and if Early or Tolle somehow do make the rotation the first swing through without any injuries, bet the farm on a contract extension being magically agreed to within days of the season starting. I mean, just look at how the big name prospects were called up last year for refence:

Kristian Campbell: Agreed to a long-term, team friendly contract in the spring, and he got a shot right away.

Marcelo Mayer: Called up in May when Alex Bregman went on the IL with a quad injury.

Roman Anthony: Called up in June when Wilyer Abreu went on the IL with an oblique injury.

Payton Tolle and Connelly Early: Called up at the end of the summer when Dick Fitts hit the IL, Walker Buehler was released, and Dustin May got injured within a couple weeks of each other.

The pattern is clear. Why would this year be any different?

Over the weekend, Payton Tolle did an interview with the Section 10 guys, and in it he mentions a recent interaction with a fan where upon confirming Tolle’s concentrating on a starting role, the fan said something along the lines of “oh, so you’re going to be starting the season in Worcester?” And I couldn’t help but laugh because that fan could easily be from one of two possible extremes — Both of which seem amazing well represented among Red Sox fans:

1. He could be your classic New England a-hole who has no problem telling anybody how much they suck to their face.
2. He could be somebody who knows exactly how service time manipulation works, how the Red Sox use it, and why Tolle is a prime candidate to experience it in 2026.

The is no in-between here!

But at the end of the day, despite that amusing little story, doesn’t this suck? Sports are supposed to be one of the last remaining bastions of spontaneous, unpredictable things in life where the human element still rules the show. And yet, when it comes to who fills out the first few trips through the rotation, we’re likely stuck with a preprogrammed script. On one hand, I get it, but on the other hand, I’m really, really underwhelmed by it.

Now, a couple final thoughts before I wrap this up.

One: I actually do think Tolle needs to spend some time in Worcester to work on his secondary pitches. He needs this better secondary stuff to complement his electric fastball and keep hitters off balance. Connelly Early however should have a real chance at getting major league starts. While not as flashy as Tolle, he has a much deeper arsenal and already knows how to use it.

Secondly, because I need to scratch this itch, I believe the bloated, oversaturated playoff field is a huge problem when it comes to treating players properly. When fewer teams make the postseason, and there’s fewer division winners to reward, there’s more pressure on clubs to put the best team possible on the field from day one. Do you remember what April and May games felt like as recently as the early 2000s when fewer teams made it to October and you had to get out of the gate hot to keep up with the Yankees and the top Wild Card team?

Part of the reason why it’s inefficient to play young players who may be better, more productive roster fits is because the sport’s overlords have devalued the 162 game season to the point that you can kind of get away with this chicanery. Not giving another inch in terms of more teams in the postseason (or even pushing to reduce the number of postseason teams) is a sneaky huge issue I’d stand firm on if I were the players in the upcoming war with the owners next winter.

In the meantime, Early and Tolle should start looking at short-term rental options in Worcester.

Let’s start off by being honest. Left field is a bit of a quagmire for the Astros as they aren’t sure if Yordan Alvarez will get a majority of the starts out there or if they can follow through with their plan to DH him. I should not that in the Hall of Fame Index I did not have a DH position, so Yordan would be categorized as a left fielder anyway. We will undoubtedly see Zach Cole there on occasion, Zach Dezenzo on occasion, and Joey Loperfido on occasion. For our purposes here, we will look at just Alvarez and Dezenzo.

However, I am throwing in one more name that is not and probably never will be an Astro. I insert him as a frame of reference. One of the things I have found is that analytics requires any number of frames of reference. I usually talk about the averages for each number we look at it, but sometimes it is informative to look at what the very best are doing. So, I am including a player that I believe to be the best overall hitter in baseball. I’m certain I will get pushback there, but I have my preferences which I will go into.

• Chase rate: This is the percentage of balls a player swings at outside of the zone. The league average normally lives around 30 percent, but we will be looking at three year intervals and we should notice trends more than where a player is in relationship to the league average.

• Hard hit percentage: This is simply the percentage of balls that a player hits hard. Hard hit balls become hits and extra base hits more often than softer contact. Typically 35 percent is around the league average in this category.

• BABIP: This is batting average on balls in play. Home runs are obviously excluded since they are not in play. The league average tends to hover around .300 but it will largely depend on hard hit percentages and breakdowns between groundballs, flyballs, and line drives.

• Contact percentage: This is the percentage of swings that turn into contact. Typically 75 percent is around league average.

• HR/FB percentage: This is the percentage of flyballs that result in home runs. Ten percent is typically around the league average.

Yordan Alvarez

	Chase	Hardhit	BABIP	Contact	HR/FB
2023	27.8	52.2	.306	79.5	21.2
2024	31.3	49.7	.317	81.3	16.0
2025	28.0	52.9	.295	78.4	9.5
Aggregate	29.0	51.6	.306	79.7	15.6

Coming into last season, Yordan had two superpowers. He hit the ball really hard and more of his flyballs turned into dingers than any other Astro. Obviously, those numbers dipped last season in the power department, but we can probably chalk it up to the hand thing and move on. However, his chase and contact rates are also slightly above the big league average, so the key to his game is that he doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses at the plate.

Keep that socked away in your mind when we look at what to expect from him but also where to categorize him in the game. If there is a significant bounce back candidate on this squad it is Yordan. He was starting to come back late last season, but then injured his ankle running the bases (stepped funny on home plate) and was lost for the season. Just for fun, let’s compare him with the best hitter in baseball.

	Chase	Hardhit	BABIP	Contact	HR/FB
2023	17.2	55.3	.296	81.9	24.5
2024	18.4	56.1	.298	79.8	25.0
2025	16.2	55.1	.270	79.9	25.1
Aggregate	17.3	55.7	.288	80.5	24.9

These are Juan Soto’s numbers. I will grant that Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani will likely have singular categories better than Soto. Luis Arreaz makes more contact than Soto. However, that is not what makes Soto the best hitter in baseball. What makes him the best hitter in baseball is the microscopic chase rate. There is no player in baseball more adept at getting on base than Soto and he succeeds in making people pay when they do come in the zone.

What strikes me is that Yordan is not that far away from Soto historically. The only category that is wildly different is the chase category. Yordan hits the ball just as hard. When you go back beyond these three seasons you see that he also has similar power numbers. If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck then it is probably a duck. If you put up underlying numbers that match the best hitter in baseball then you are one of the best hitters in baseball. Yordan has an opportunity to be THAT guy again. If he is THAT guy then the Astros offense becomes viable again.

Zach Dezenzo

	Chase	Hardhit	BABIP	Contact	HR/FB
2023	—-	—-	.382	70.8	18.8
2024	23.1	51.4	.371	75.7	14.3
2025	21.6	41.0	.373	69.3	8.3
Aggregate	22.4	46.2	.375	71.9	13.8

These are mostly the minor league numbers for Dezenzo and as we can see, he did not play above AA in 2023. This hitting profile is becoming all too familiar. It looks almost identical to what Brice Mathews is bringing to the table. Not to spoil any future articles, but we will see it again with Zach Cole and Joey Loperfido. Dana Brown has a type. He likes selective hitters that hit the ball hard and have good power. Unfortunately, that usually comes with some hit and miss.

I only have the numbers to go on, but I would assume the idea is that hopefully one or two of them will make enough contact to be viable big league hitters. Most hitters are not Juan Soto or Yordan Alvarez. Those guys are the guys that get megadeals. Most hitters have a hole. The question is where do you want your hole? The Astros have chosen contact for most of their upper level prospects. Is that right way to go? What do you think?

Come Opening Day, the Yankees’ starting rotation will be far from full strength. Carlos Rodón and Gerrit Cole will both be on the injured list to begin the 2026 campaign, but the Bombers will also be without Clarke Schmidt for a significant stretch to begin the year. The right-hander is recovering from Tommy John surgery, which he underwent during last July with the newer internal brace procedure.

Whether Schmidt will even be among the top five starters when he is able to return remains to be seen, but nonetheless, the Yankees will be without another valuable arm for much of the campaign. He has missed ample time over the last two seasons, but his performance during that stretch has been the best of his career, so the Yankees would welcome a full return from their 30-year-old starter.

2025 Stats: 14 starts, 78.2 IP, 4-4, 3.32 ERA (123 ERA+), 3.95 FIP, 4.44 xFIP, 23.1% K%, 9.5% BB%, 1.03 HR/9, 1.09 WHIP, 1.3 fWAR

2026 FanGraphs Depth Charts Projections: 3 starts, 32.0 IP, 2-2, 3.99 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 23.1% K%, 8.0% BB%, 1.17 HR/9, 1.25 WHIP, 0.3 fWAR

Schmidt debuted for the Yankees back in 2020, and after forgettable cups of coffee in that season and in 2021, the right-hander got his first real look at action the following year. The 2022 season saw him pitch in 29 games, only three of which were starts, but it was a solid body of work — a 3.12 ERA in 57.2 innings. A year later, he was a full-fledged member of that starting rotation, making 32 starts, doing so as an average back half guy, managing a 4.42 FIP in his 159 innings of work.

More recently, Schmidt is coming off of some of his best work, albeit limited due to the elbow injury. In 85.1 innings, the now 30-year-old managed a 2.85 ERA in 2024, the lowest figure or his career. His strikeout rates increased to over 25 percent, and he kept the walks at bay. When on the mound, Schmidt had shown himself to be a fairly dependable, and at times good, Major League starter. Of course, the primary issue was his ability to only stay healthy for 16 starts, though he was active as a member of the playoff rotation en route to the 2024 Fall Classic.

The good times continued in 2025, as Schmidt was nearly as good in 78.1 innings of work last season, although the peripheral numbers were slightly worse. If nothing else, the continuation of that impressive stretch likely convinced the Yankees that he could be a dependable arm every fifth day. But, once again, the injury trouble resurfaced with his aforementioned Tommy John internal brace procedure — the second TJ of his career, following a pre-draft operation in early 2017. He was sidelined in July, and likely won’t be back until the later months of the 2026 campaign.

As far as his ability is concerned, the Yankees should feel fine about Schmidt. He has posted three consecutive seasons of fine-to-very-good pitching, and has even shown flashes of excellent work on the mound. Expectations should be managed, considering the limited sample size and the significant injury, but it is fair to assume that he is a solid big-league pitcher.

The right-hander’s health, however, is the primary concern. Despite the impressive numbers, Schmidt has also posted consecutive seasons in which he basically pitched half of a full-time starter’s role. Between shoulder trouble and the elbow procedure, his health is far from a certainty. The Yankees will be without him for at least the first half of the season, and their first question will certainly be of whether he can stay on the mound for an extended period. Returning from a second Tommy John surgery only adds another hurdle. Schmidt will be familiar with the rehab grind, but one never truly knows how their elbow takes to the procedure until the possible return to game action gets closer and the intensity rises. Although we can be optimistic, the first year back—especially a partial year like this one will be—can be bumpy. A setback or two could potentially nix his 2026 as well. Will Schmidt be healthy enough for a starter’s workload by late summer?

They say you can never have enough pitching, and they say it for good reason. When Schmidt does eventually return, it will be welcomed by a Yankees staff that has several hurlers returning from significant injury. Baseball being baseball, others will likely be on the shelf by then, too. Until then, the Yankees will have to wait on Schmidt’s recovery. The latest updates say that Schmidt could be throwing bullpen sessions soon, and perhaps facing hitters in the coming month or two. Get well soon, pal.

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See more of the Yankees Previews series here.

Meet the Mets

The Mets beat Team Nicaragua 6-3 in an exhibition game before the World Baseball Classic begins. Jonah Tong made the start for the Mets, going 2.2 innings and giving up a run while striking out three. Brooks Raley and Craig Kimbrel also each gave up a run, while the other five pitchers on the Mets side escaped their appearances unscathed. It was an group effort on the offensive side as well, with Bo Bichette, Francisco Alvarez, Vidal Bruján, and Chris Cuero each driving in runs, with Bruján driving in two including the game-winning run.

After playing catch on Monday, Francisco Lindor will hopefully be able to take batting practice today, a good sign for his hope to return by Opening Day.

Nolan McLean is on the mend and with Team USA after suffering with some vertigo-like symptoms last week.

Not only is McLean likely to start for Team USA in the March 10 game against Team Italy, but he’s expected to start the final on March 17 (provided Team USA makes it).

Tom Seaver’s 1969 World Series ring sold for a tidy sum at an auction.

St. John’s University honored Shannon Forde, former Mets senior director of media relation until her untimely passing a decade ago, by presenting a jersey to her family.

Edwin Díaz went into more detail about his departure from the Mets, among other things.

Jon Heyman listed eight Mets who could make or break the Mets season.

Around the National League East

Jurickson Profar has tested positive for banned PEDs for the second year in a row and is facing a full 162-game suspension, which would encompass the entire 2026 season.

The MLB Players Association plans to challenge the suspension of Profar by the league.

Baseball Prospectus has published their season preview for the Miami Marlins.

Around Major League Baseball

MLB has compiled a guide to all the teams in each pool at the World Baseball Classic.

Behind every breakout at spring training is some eye-popping numbers.

Ken Rosenthal put out another notes article, including a dive into the special bond between two Team USA superstars.

David Schoenfield at ESPN ranked the most dominant positions in baseball.

There’s a very logical reason that would preclude Paul Skenes from pitching in a potential Word Baseball Classic Final game for Team USA.

Team USA is taking some inspiration from a all-time great American Olympian.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

Lukas Vlahos wrote about the sneaky good gamble the Mets have taken on reliever Bryan Hudson.

Steve Sypa previewed the ever-present Ronny Mauricio’s 2026 season.

Lukas Vlahos also graded the Mets’ minor league roster moves.

This Date in Mets History

Six different former Mets are celebrating birthdays today.

After a disappointing regular season and a shoulder injury that cost him four months worth of time, Roki Sasaki was the saving grace for the Dodgers bullpen during their most recent title run.

Sasaski was finally able to show flashes of his promising potential that was heavily advertised the offseason prior, and after his brief bullpen stint, he is now set to return to the Dodgers rotation this upcoming season. Just like how his 2025 regular season began, Sasaki has struggled mightily on the mound over his first two starts of the spring.

Sasaki allowed three runs in his first start against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Wednesday, following that up by allowing another four runs against the Cleveland Guardians via a grand slam from Kyle Manzardo on Tuesday. Although the Dodgers were able to salvage both games after the right-hander’s departures, the early results have painted a bleak picture on Sasaki’s outlook ahead of opening day. Despite the struggles, the plan is to keep him in the rotation come the Dodgers opening series on March 26, notes Sonja Chen of MLB.com.

“I think it can change. But I don’t think it’s gonna change before we break,” Roberts said. “Building him up, we see him as a starter, and giving him every opportunity for success. But again, we still gotta coach him up, and he’s still gotta continue to get outs and work ahead like Major League starters do.”

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River Ryan later came in relief during Tuesday’s contest against Cleveland, and tossed two scoreless innings while striking out three and allowing zero hits and one walk. Ryan’s stock for making the opening day rotation is rising with every appearance— especially with Blake Snell and Gavin Stone officially ruled out— but Dave Roberts won’t make any hasty decisions too early amidst the competition, per Courtney Hollmon of MLB.com.

“I think right now, where we’re at, I don’t think we need to really talk about a competition as far as the rotation. Once we get to the 21st of March, we’ll have a better idea once we break camp. But I think right now, there’s just too much that can happen.”

Dave Roberts spoke about the team’s top pitching prospect Jackson Ferris, as the left-hander has impressed with 2 2/3 scoreless innings so far this spring, per Jack Vita of the Los Angeles Times.

“I like Jackson,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said recently. “I like the player. He’s a good kid. A lot of talent. I think for me, it’s just trying to harness his arsenal. It’s a good fastball. He needs to continue to get ahead, be able to put hitters away with the secondary pitches, be efficient with his pitches per inning, but I like Jackson.”

MLB.com’s Anne Rogers reports on the Kansas City Royals officially adding outfielder Starling Marte to the roster and what his goals are in 2026.

“[Marte] is a longtime proven right-handed bat in the big leagues,” manager Matt Quatraro said. “He’s had pretty neutral splits over the years. Obviously, his leadership, the teammate that he brings to the table is something that’s been well talked about over the years. He’s clearly somebody who takes a lot of pride in keeping himself ready to play and keeping himself in shape.”

“I value the guys and I feel comfortable,” Marte said in Spanish on Tuesday morning. “For me this will be a new season and [I’m committing] to doing the best I can to help the team. I know and I hope that everything gets better through the difficult times, to work through it and keep moving forward.”

Rogers also looked at four Royals players who could benefit from more playing opportunities as their peers depart for the World Baseball Classic, including outfielder Drew Waters.

This spring is really the switch-hitting outfielder’s last shot at showing he can be an asset for the Royals, whether that’s with his power or speed or defense, and he’ll have to break through an already crowded outfield. Getting a few more starts — when hitters are more likely to face Major League-caliber pitching — rather than in-game replacement appearances gives him a better opportunity to do that.

“Having the opportunity to have three or four at-bats on a regular basis in starts, not only is that great leading into the season, but just as an opportunity to go out and show what you’re capable of,” Waters said.

Sports Illustrated’s Curt Bishop advocates for the Royals to look for more pitching depending on Stephen Kolek’s recovery process.

They already have Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Noah Cameron, Kris Bubic and Michael Wacha, which is a pretty solid starting five. But Zack Littell, Nestor Cortes, Patrick Corbin, Tyler Anderson, Jon Gray and Marcus Stroman are still available as insurance options

There are also plenty of pitchers still on the market that can be used in both roles such as Joey Lucchesi and Max Kranick. The Royals don’t know how long Kolek is going to be out. If he returns quickly, then they should be fine, but a little more depth can’t hurt, especially if he ends up being out for a long time.

Team USA and Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. had a lopsided 15-1 victory over the San Francisco Giants in an exhibition tune-up. Witt had multiple hits leading off for a stacked Team USA lineup.

Vinnie Pasquantino’s grandpa “thinks [Team Italy] is in Italy.”

A new Royals Top 30 prospects list came out from MLB Pipeline, with catcher Carter Jensen leading the pack. Here are the system’s best graded tools according to the evaluators.

Hit: 55 – Jensen (Gamble)
Power: 60 – Jensen
Run: 70 – Angeibel Gomez
Arm: 65 – Josh Hammond
Defense: 65 – Asbel Gonzalez
Fastball: 70 – Dennis Colleran
Curveball: 65 – Michael Lombardi
Slider: 55 – David Shields (Steven Zobac, Justin Lamkin)
Changeup: 60 – Ben Kudrna (Hunter Patteson)
Cutter: 60 – Colleran
Control: 60 – Chourio

Kansas City Star’s Jaylon Thompson sits down with outfielder Kameron Misner, who joins the same team that drafted him out of high school.

Misner is a Poplar Bluff native. He knows all about the Kansas City Royals and has a little history with the organization. The Royals actually selected him in the 33rd round of the 2016 MLB Draft. It was a difficult choice to turn down the Royals. However, Misner decided to go to school — attending the University of Missouri — on a baseball scholarship. His decision was worth it. Misner was a 2017 Freshman All-American and set career marks during his junior season. It was enough for him to be selected by the Miami Marlins in the first round of the 2019 draft.

Royals Keep’s Philip Ruo ponders Marte’s role in Kansas City.

The short answer is that if everything goes right, Marte won’t need to feature in the starting lineup too often. The expectation is that he will offer the Royals added roster flexibility to start in place of the starters when needed and to provide rest to keep players fresh throughout the season.

The main area that Marte will be used against is left-handed pitching. The Royals greatly struggled against lefties in 2025. Despite the additions of right-handed Thomas and switch-hitting Collins, the outlook against lefties in 2026 was still not promising. Against lefties, Marte has posted a wRC+ above 100 in four of the last five seasons. Marte could offer relief for Collins or Caglianone in the corner outfield spots against lefties to help with the lineup’s overall production.

Kings of Kauffman’s Caleb Moody looks at another minor-league free agent standing out this spring.

Now, two weeks of spring training is hardly enough time to call any signing a home run, however when it comes to lesser-discussed minor league deals, performances like Pérez’s are definitely worth something.

Though it may only be a couple of outings, Pérez has lived up to the Royals low-risk commitment in him, not allowing a single earned run and sporting a 0.73 FIP, 0.75 WHIP and .200 BAA with a 40.0% K-rate.

Again, does this make Pérez an option for Kansas City’s 2026 bullpen? Likely not. However, what it does indicate is that he could be a much needed depth arm in their system, something they lacked last season.

David Lesky gave his analysis of the Marte addition at Inside the Crown.

The Athletic’s Keith Law puts out his first MLB Draft rankings.

His peer Jim Bowden also has good news on the ABS returns in spring training.

What are some major takeaways from the NFL Combine?

Lance Brozdowski provides some nuance to pitchers’ changes in Florida or Arizona weather.

MLB suspends Atlanta Braves outfielder Jurickson Profar for the 2026 season after another positive PED test.

Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Johan Rojas is looking to contest his suspension after an alleged failed PED test.

Boston Red Sox infielder Brendan Rogers is looking at shoulder surgery, according to manager Alex Cora.

Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Gavin Stone is facing his own shoulder issues in camp.

New York Mets pitcher Nolan McLean is “feeling better” after experiencing some odd symptoms last week.

Could the Minnesota Vikings pursue quarterback Kyler Murray?

The real-world environment is having an impact on the World Cup with 100 days to go.

Miami (Ohio) men’s basketball reaches 30 games in winning streak as March Madness looms large.

Pixar uses a familiar formula to fuel a new animal-human body-jumping movie.

Anthropic’s foray into headlines is paying off with AI users, as moral cloud hangs with the U.S. military.

Who is lining up for ice cream in single-digit weather?

Today’s song of the day is Mama Weer All Crazee Now from Quiet Riot.

Good morning. There are lots of team WBC previews on MLB dot com. I put several of them here, but if your favorite country isn’t mentioned, check out the official World Baseball Classic page and see if a preview is there.

• Braves outfielder Jurickson Profar has tested positive for a performance-enhancing drug for the second time and is now facing a 162-game suspension. Jeff Passan reports.
• Ken Rosenthal has more on the Profar positive test and probable suspension, (The Athletic sub. req.) which is being appealed.
• Phillies outfielder Johan Rojas is also appealing an 80-game ban for testing positive for a PED.
• The start of the World Baseball Classic just a day away. Here’s a preview from MLB dot com.
• Matt Snyder ranks his top ten teams of the WBC.
• Michael Clair has an excerpt from his new book about the Czech National Baseball team and the firefighter who led his team to their first WBC appearance.
• Phillies star Bryce Harper says that Team USA needs the same kind of swagger that the two US Olympic hockey teams had. Ian Casselberry reports.
• Royals first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino talks about representing Team Italy and how his Italian grandfather can’t stop talking about it. Jordan Bastian reports.
• Brian McTaggart checks in Team Venezuela, who hope to turn around a series of disappointing results in the WBC.
• Team Mexico is a favorite dark horse choice for the WBC. Mexican general manager Rodrigo Lopez talks to Steve Gilbert about why Team Mexico is optimistic they can make a deep run.
• R.J. Anderson has ten prospects and international players to keep an eye on in the WBC.
• Michael Baumann tries to predict who might be the breakout prospect or international player in this edition of the WBC.
• Michael Clair fills out his WBC bracket.
• David Schoenfield wonders how many future Hall-of-Famers are playing in the 2026 WBC.
• Yankees star Aaron Judge, playing for Team USA, has nothing but praise for Giants rookie Bryce Eldridge, who is the only player in MLB taller than Judge is. (The Athletic sub. req.) Andrew Baggarly with the story.
• Bob Nightengale explains why new Giants manager Tony Vitello praised Bryce Harper, who gave Vitello useful advice as he takes his first professional job.
• Jay Jaffe evaluates the Yankees adding of outfielder Randal Grichuk on a minor league deal.
• Alden Gonzalez writes about how Shohei Ohtani’s goal this year is to win the Cy Young Award.
• Sonja Chen asks if the Dodgers are worried about Roki Sasaki’s spring struggles.
• Fabian Ardaya writes that the Dodgers continue to downplay Sasaki’s issues this spring. (The Athletic sub. req.)
• Jordan Schusterman has six under-the-radar “x-factors” in Spring Training. Moisés Ballesteros is one of them.
• David Adler has the most impressive Statcast numbers from Spring Training.
• Michael Rosen looks at some exciting new pitches that have made their debut this spring.
• Ken Rosenthal makes the case as to why the Astros should trade third baseman Isaac Paredes. (The Athletic sub. req.)
• Jorge Castillo breaks down the Mets big offseason makeover.
• Red Sox second baseman Brendan Rodgers will undergo shoulder surgery.
• David Schoenfield ranks the top positions in baseball from the most talented to the least.
• Mike Axisa has a preview of the AL East.
• Keith Law has his top 30 prospects in the upcoming draft. (The Athletic sub. req.)
• And finally, Max Scherzer reveals the story behind his daughter’s letter to the Blue Jays asking them to re-sign her dad. Scherzer called it the “cutest thing” and added that he and his wife did not send it to the Blue Jays, laughingly explaining that would be a bad negotiating strategy.

Last week, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s JR Radcliffe caught up with Baseball Prospectus’ Jonathan Judge to discuss the recent PECOTA projections. Those rankings, which I covered here, somewhat notoriously projected the Brewers for just 80.5 wins (it has since been inched up to 81.1), and Radcliffe wanted to give Judge a chance to explain in a little more detail.

There were a few things that Judge mentioned that I rolled my eyes at, and a few things that did give me pause. I wanted to look into some of the concerns that Judge raised about the Brewers and see whether I thought there was any credence to them.

The Brewers led the league — by far — in errors committed against them

This is true — teams committed 0.69 errors per game against the Brewers in 2025 (though the only source I was able to find on this was something called “teamrankings.com,” so take that for what it’s worth), which is about 12% more than against any other team. The gap of 0.08 errors against per game between the first-place Brewers and second-place Rays was as big as the gap between the Rays and the 10th-place Astros. I’m not sure exactly what that’s worth for the Brewers — Judge says “seven wins” but it’s not clear if he’s saying that casually as an offhand remark or not.

That might be a sign of good fortune on the Brewers’ part, and there’s no real indication that it’s a repeatable skill (the Brewers ranked 14th in the league in 2024 and 18th in 2023). But there might be something to the Brewers forcing a lot of errors — they’re a team full of speedy, aggressive baserunners who put the ball in play (as a team, they were tied with Miami for the fourth-lowest strikeout percentage in the league), and that’s going to put pressure on defenses.

In any case: the Brewers were third in baseball with 806 runs scored in 2025. PECOTA projects them for 699 runs. I don’t think a regression in errors against is going to make up 107 runs.

They don’t have enough slug

Judge also notes that the Brewers’ slugging percentage was “not good.” The Brewers slugged .403 in 2025, which was essentially exactly league average (.404) and 12th in MLB. Judge was perhaps referring to isolated power, which takes batting average out of the equation and looks purely at “power,” in which case the Brewers did considerably worse, and ranked 25th in the league (.145, against a league average of .159, or about 8% worse than average).

But the Brewer offense was hardly bad even by more advanced measures: by OPS+, they ranked 11th with 105 (5% better than league average), and they were even better via FanGraphs’ wRC+ measure (107, ninth in the league). We’ve already established that they scored a bunch of runs. Yes, the Brewers of 2025 didn’t hit a ton of homers (166, 22nd in the league), but they were able to make up for that in a variety of ways.

This is still a topic of conversation for the Brewers, and the question of where the slug comes from is a persistent one. But the Brewers might very well take a step forward in this area in 2026 anyway: yes, their leading home run hitter from 2025, Christian Yelich, will be a year older. But they’ll have a full season of the Andrew Vaughn/Jake Bauers platoon — their combined home run pace on a per-600 PA basis as Brewers was just over 20, but I’m optimistic they’ll outperform that — and we’re all waiting on a jump in power from Jackson Chourio. There are other places on the roster that could very plausibly outslug what the Brewers got in 2025, too: Gary Sánchez is gonna hit a few dingers, Brice Turang could see a jump if his late-season power surge lasts for closer to a full season, William Contreras could jump back to 2024 levels (he hit six more in 2024 than 2025), Luis Rengifo could get back to being the 16-17 homer guy he once was.

But we have a proven track record of the Brewers being able to score runs without the benefit of huge homer numbers, and I just don’t see a big reason to think that’s going to dramatically change in 2026. Maybe this isn’t the third-best offense in the league, but I don’t see them suddenly scoring 13% fewer runs.

Certain players without long track records are unlikely to repeat 2025 success

Two specific players who came up in this category were Turang and Quinn Priester. Both players struggled to varying degrees in their first two big-league seasons and then found success last year with Milwaukee.

Judge, in line with projection systems, is a bit skeptical of that success. To understand why, it’s important to understand how these projection systems tend to work: they typically look at three years of results and base the following season on how the previous three went, with allowances for aging arcs. That gives a larger sample.

Turang was quite bad in 2023, and as Judge says, “there’s simply no way a projection system is going to forget that.” Later, when talking about Priester, Judge explains that one could just look at last season with the Brewers, in which he was good, and ignore the previous two years, but “we just don’t do that because that’s a bet you’re just not going to win most of the time.”

Here’s the thing about Turang and Priester, though. Both were first-round picks. Both were once top 100 prospects. Both are young — Priester turned 25 in September, and Turang turned 26 in November. They are in the period of their careers where you would expect them to improve every year, and they were both expected to be good players based on where they were drafted and rated as prospects.

Yes, both players struggled upon reaching the majors, and that “record” still exists for the projection systems. But both players improved rather dramatically, and especially in Turang’s case, in a fashion that seems to follow a pretty logical, if steep, arc. PECOTA projects Turang to be worth just 1.8 WAR in 2026. By Baseball Reference’s WAR, Turang had 1.5 WAR even when he was a brutally bad offensive player in 2023; he outperformed 1.8 WAR by 260% in 2024 and by 310% in 2025. Even if you use FanGraphs’ lower numbers, Turang had 2.6 WAR in 2024 and 4.4 in 2025.

If Turang earns only 1.8 WAR in 2026, it would be massively disappointing. He’s still pre-prime in terms of age, so it’s reasonable to hope that players will continue to improve each year. The other thing about Turang, though, is qualitative: anyone who watched him regularly the last few seasons and in spring training this year can see that he is not remotely the same hitter he was in 2023.

Priester, perhaps, has more reason for concern — he significantly outperformed his FIP last season (3.32 ERA to 4.01 FIP) and there’s not much in his Statcast profile to suggest that he should be one of the best pitchers in the National League, which he was for much of 2025, at least in terms of results. But there’s also not much in that Statcast profile to suggest that he’s not, at least, a pretty solid starter. And the Brewers have clearly been strategic in acquiring groundball pitchers while they put out one of the best defensive middle infields in the league, and Priester’s groundball bona fides are legitimate.

Putting players in situations that are tailored to their strengths and set them up for success might not give a “fair” reflection of that player’s true ability, but it’s also just… smart. Sure, if Priester were pitching for a bad defensive team, he probably wouldn’t be nearly as valuable. But he’s not, so he will have value.

Conclusions

I am not by any means saying that Judge and PECOTA have no idea what they’re talking about. But for the third straight year, projection systems are down on the Brewers, and they’ll have a good chance of outperforming those projections, perhaps dramatically so. The last two years, Milwaukee caught everyone off guard, but now this is becoming a trend, and if the projections are wrong again, then there’s clearly an issue with the process.

This might be making some of the people behind those projection systems a little bit defensive, perhaps understandably so. But they should also understand that when those systems vastly underrated the Brewers in 2024 and 2025, fans are going to be up in arms when they appear to again be vastly underrating the Brewers in 2026.

Maybe the Brewers take a significant step back in 2026. I don’t really expect them to finish with the best record in the league again. But each of the last two years, I looked at the NL Central and thought the Brewers had the best chance at winning it, and both seasons I was right. I’d like to think I’m a fairly rational fan, and if I thought there was a team to take the mantle from the Brewers, I’d admit it. Maybe the Cubs do that this year. They have a talented team with a track record, which is why they outperform the Brewers in projections.

But I also think it’s just as likely that the team that won 97 games with a team filled with pre-prime players and seems to have creatively replaced the production it lost via Freddy Peralta, Caleb Durbin, and Isaac Collins is still going to be a darn good team in 2026. Excuse me for thinking so.

Mike Elias made a couple of unexpected trades this offseason. One was the trade for Shane Baz, a 26-year-old starting pitcher who has shown promise but mixed results in his Major League career. The Orioles sent three young prospects, including two first-round picks, to the Rays in exchange for Baz. The Rays also received a competitive balance draft pick in the deal. It was a big haul for the Rays, but the Orioles got back a pitcher who has three years before free agency.

After an injury-shortened but successful 2024 season, Baz struggled in 2025 with a 4.87 ERA in 31 starts for the Rays. For those looking for a silver lining in that high ERA, Baz had a respectable 3.86 ERA in 15 road starts to go along with an atrocious 5.90 home ERA. The Rays played their 2025 home games at Steinbrenner Field, the spring training home of the New York Yankees. That park is not suitable for regular Major League baseball, but the Rays were forced there after Hurricane Milton destroyed the roof on Tropicana Field.

Baz allowed 26 home runs last year, 18 of which came at Steinbrenner Field. His BABIP at home was .323 vs .283 on the road. Meanwhile, his walk rate and strikeout rate were quite similar regardless of where he pitched. After the trade, Mike Elias raved about Baz, saying, “He’s got great underlying metrics, five plus pitches. I think he’s got a great arm and he’s a great athlete, and I think he hasn’t fully tapped into his ceiling yet, so we see him as a front-end-of-the-rotation starter.”

So what do you think will happen? Will Baz rise above his poor Steinbrenner Field numbers to help the Orioles improve in 2026? Or was Mike Elias a chump to send so many prospects to to the Rays in exchange for a 4.87 ERA pitcher? Here are Baz’s projections from ZiPS and Baseball Reference:

• ZiPS: 27 GS, 141 IP, 4.27 ERA, 20 HR
• Baseball Reference: 151 IP, 4.29 ERA, 21 HR, 1.258 WHIP

What are your expectations?

One of the biggest problems for the 2025 Colorado Rockies was hitting the fastball. It was such a problem that I wrote a piece in early May — which included a photo edit I’m rather proud of — highlighting the issue for the team after just a month into the season.

That was when the Rockies ranked near the bottom in most offensive counting stats and metrics against fastballs. Most things remained the same, but they did improve to the median in terms of batting average and total hits by the end of the season. The extremes still existed as they finished with the third-highest strikeout rate (20.5%), fourth-highest whiff rate (21.6%), third-fewest home runs (82), and the fourth-fewest balls in play.

In short, the team struggled mightily against fastballs and couldn’t generate much meaningful offense against them.

Fully aware of their problems, the Rockies’ new front office and coaching staff, including new hitting coach Brett Pill, have the task of helping the team cut down on the swings-and-misses and become a more productive lineup across the board. It stands to reason that the team is working to catch up on the fastball to mitigate some of the issues they were having, and the early spring training returns are promising.

Entering Tuesday, the Rockies’ offense has shown improvement and ranks among the more productive teams in spring training with promising gains in strikeout and walk numbers.

So, how are they doing with the fastball at this point in camp?

Thankfully, Baseball Savant has provided insight via Statcast for our search today.

For this investigation, fastballs include four-seams, two-seam/sinkers, and cutters. So, unless specifically identified, the numbers will involve how the Rockies are doing against all forms of the fastball.

A simple indicator of success will always be batting average, and the Rockies aren’t doing too shabbily a few weeks into camp. Sporting a .290 AVG, the club ranks ninth in all of baseball, right in line with the Seattle Mariners (.291) and the Boston Red Sox (.292). They are still well behind the San Francisco Giants, who sit at a dazzling .364 AVG on fastballs.

What’s interesting is that the Rockies have seen far fewer fastballs than the majority of the top 10 teams in batting average. At this point in spring training, the league average of fastballs hitters have seen is 57.4%. The Rockies have seen 55%, which ranks near the bottom of baseball despite seeing the ninth-most total pitches. An influx of breaking balls early in camp is to be expected as pitchers try to dial things in and experiment with new pitches, but the work the team has been able to do against fastballs is promising.

Making contact is priority number one to cut down on whiff rate, and the Rockies are making steady progress. At 18.4%, the Rockies have the fourth-lowest whiff rate against fastballs in baseball, with a 16.7% strikeout rate, which sits just below league average.

Fastballs in General

In the brief sample size, it’s clear the Rockies are putting into practice what they are preaching about improving control of the zone and taking advantage of the fastball. While coaching certainly plays a major part in the growth, personnel also have their role.

The Rockies made it a point this offseason to bring in players with improved plate discipline and contact abilities. Willi Castro and Jake McCarthy have proven capable in their careers at making contact, particularly against the fastball. At his best in 2023, Edouard Julien was a menace against fastballs, and rookie hopeful T.J. Rumfield made a career in the minors with elite plate discipline and contact skills.

Check out this chart of players who have seen at least 50 pitches, sorted by batting average, and how the Rockies are doing individually against fastballs.

It’s promising to see young prospects like Cole Carrigg and Charlie Condon top the list, but the players who are seeing a good bit of action are finding success against fastballs. If you expand the search to include everyone, Mickey Moniak, Brenton Doyle, Kyle Karros and Willi Castro make appearances with high batting averages in the .400 range.

Additionally, limiting the whiff rate to a sub-20% for the majority of players would go a long way to improving the Rockies’ offense throughout the system. Even more important is limiting strikeouts on fastballs, especially as camp progresses and both pitchers and hitters get up to game speed for the regular season.

There will always be concerns for players like Jordan Beck, who have the possibility of a power stroke, which would mean more strikeouts, but he is an example of a player who has to dial in on fastballs and make sure he isn’t missing opportunities against them.

Four-Seam Fastballs

What about the most fundamental pitch, the four-seam fastball?

Well, the Rockies are proving quite capable against the four-seam fastball with a .321 AVG, ranking fourth in all of baseball. Their .590 SLG also ranks third in the league, and the 17.9% whiff is the second lowest. A team 14.5% strikeout rate also ranks as the third-lowest in baseball.

As a whole, 15 players are batting over .300 against four-seam fastballs, albeit in limited sample sizes. The whiff rates are elevated, but it’s worth noting that on both four-seam fastballs and fastballs in general, the team is hitting the ball hard when they do make contact. They are at a 50% hard-hit rate against both four-seam fastballs and fastballs in general, both of which rank near the top in baseball.

The high slugging is also encouraging to see and will be most beneficial come the regular season. A pitcher is most likely to throw a fastball on the first pitch of an at-bat, and if Rockies hitters can put competitive swings on on that first pitch, it could set a tone for the offense. The first pitch of the game on February 25 that Moniak blasted for a 375-foot home run is a prime example of jumping on a first-pitch fastball.

Conclusion

Jumping on fastballs, particularly early in counts, could go a long way to helping the Rockies combat a tendency to chase pitches the longer at-bats go on. Yes, it is early in spring training with small sample sizes; however, there are promising signs that the team is turning some things around. If they can continue showing improvement, especially when pitchers start using proper scouting reports leading up to the regular season, the offense could rectify the shortcomings of 2025.

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Affected by Altitude Episode 201: The First Letters from Camp Schaeffer | Rocky Mountain Rooftop

This week, Evan Lang and I talk about the injuries in spring training, the first base battle, and the early impressions of the new faces brought into camp.

Led by nation’s 2 best pitchers, Colombia eyes deep run at World Baseball Classic | MLB.com

Jose Quintana didn’t get to throw much in games for the Rockies before heading out to anchor the rotation for Team Colombia in the WBC. He is the winningest Colombian-born pitcher in MLB history, but was forced to miss the 2023 World Baseball Classic after sustaining a rib injury in spring training. He is the team captain and will toss their first game against Puerto Rico.

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A year ago, young right-hander Rayner Castillo was one of the fastest rising players in the system. In 2025, he spun his wheels at the High-A level, suffering from some uncharacteristic wildness and more erratic velocity. He continued to rack up ground balls, but the contact got louder and the whiffs dried up a bit. It wasn’t until late in the season when he finally put it together and started shutting teams down again. That’s just a minor setback for a 21-year-old pitcher in his first look at the High-A level, but Castillo needs to get back on horse and make progress in 2026.

Castillo was a member of the Tigers’ 2021 international free agent class out of the Dominican Republic. He was just 16 at the time, and a fairly lean, undistinguished right-hander. It took him a few years to find himself as a pitcher, but advanced strike throwing got him to the Complex League for his age 18 and 19 seasons. He finally broke into full season ball after a great Complex League showing in 2024, now 6’3” and with plenty of muscle added to him frame. The strikeouts were lacking, but Castillo was throwing a very easy 95-96 mph sinker with advanced command and getting a ton of outs on the ground. His slider flashed plus and he had the makings of a solid changeup but both were very inconsistent. Progress with his secondary pitches, especially the changeup, was the main prescription for progress in 2025.

However, we didn’t get that progress. Instead, Castillo’s easy, balanced delivery wasn’t producing quite the same velocity and he sat around 93-94 mph most of the 2025 season at High-A West Michigan. Work to tune up the movement on his slider and changeup combo led to a little more wildness than we’ve seen before from him, and he really struggled to shut down opponents with runners on base. It wasn’t until August and September that he really dialed things in and finished strong.

So, to put a positive spin on it, Castillo got a lot of experience navigating better lineups with less than his best stuff, but finished the year looking back in form. An off year is natural at his age as he stretched out to 98 2/3 innings of work. But clearly there is plenty of work ahead if he’s going to break through at the Double-A level in 2026.

Castillo’s slider is typically 83-84 mph, and in 2024 he was already showing some feel for adding depth or sweep depending on the hitter and the situation. At the same time, he would still occasionally spike one pretty badly, and we were looking for more consistency as he continued to refine the pitch. That didn’t happen until late in the 2025 season. He was less prone to completely yanking it in the dirt, but it was slower and more rounded off than sharp during the summer months, and he continued to have it back up on him at times. Most of his helium coming into the season was on the basis of his easy command of the sinker at 95-96 mph and up to 98 mph, backed by a pretty sharp slider. He lost both for long stretches in 2025, and really only in his final starts in August and September did the two pitches come back to form consistently.

Castillo’s changeup didn’t show any real signs of improvement either, and developing that third pitch was a big goal for 2025. He was throwing a circle changeup in 2024, and while he appeared to tinker with a few different variations this season, he never really got it locked in. It’s still too firm, and with the sinker diminished for much of the summer, the velocity separation was pretty poor.

So, by season’s end, we basically had the same Castillo we saw in 2024. He got back to sitting 95-96 mph with pretty easy command of the sinker. The slider got sharper and he started picking up more whiffs again. But the changeup didn’t improve much if at all. The hope is that this was just a year of growing pains. When a young pitcher makes the leap Castillo did in 2024, there’s often a period of inconsistency as they work on things and try to take the next step.

We’re going to ride with Castillo again and not drop him down in the rankings or grade for now. He won’t be 22 until June, and as long as he has the velo and the slider back this season, he should do well and advance to Double-A Erie. He’s unlikely to ever be a big-time strikeout artist, and the hard sinker and his durability and typically good strike throwing remains the foundation of his approach to hitters, but a depth starter projection is still viable. More likely, he’s a future relief option, but he’ll still have to show better command of the fastball and the slider to get there.