Redlegs: Mariners vs. Reds Series Preview

DENVER, COLORADO - JULY 17: Eugenio Suárez #28 of the Cincinnati Reds celebrates with teammates in the dugout his sixth inning solo home run against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on July 17, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) | Getty Images

With a 50-50 record through 100 games, the Mariners have become the embodiment of that famous Tommy Lasorda quote. They’ve got 62 games left to prove how good or bad they really are. There were glimpses of that competent roster last weekend; Cole Young blasted two huge home runs, Julio Rodriguez collected a walk-off hit in his first game off the IL, and the pitching was mostly solid. Now the trick is to string a few series wins together to build some momentum as the season barrels towards the trade deadline.

GameTimeMariners StarterReds StarterMariners Win%Reds Win%
Game 1Monday, July 20 | 6:40 pmRHP George KirbyLHP Andrew Abbott63.2%36.8%
Game 2Tuesday, July 21 | 6:40 pmRHP Luis CastilloRHP Chase Burns53.8%46.2%
Game 3Wednesday, July 22 | 12:40 pmRHP Emerson HancockRHP Brady Singer58.7%41.3%
*Game odds courtesy of FanGraphs
OverviewMarinersRedsEdge
Batting (wRC+)100 (9th in AL)91 (13th in NL)Mariners
Fielding (FRV)-25 (13th)-7 (11th)Reds
Starting Pitching (FIP-)87 (2nd)106 (10th)Mariners
Bullpen (FIP-)90 (3rd)116 (14th)Mariners

It took a historic collapse from the Mets, but the Reds made a surprise playoff appearance last year. It didn’t last long — they were trounced in the Wild Card round by the Dodgers — but it seemed like something promising to build on. Cincinnati got off to a really strong start to this year, but the team has crashed after the first month of the season. Since May 1, the Reds’ 24-42 record is the worst in baseball. There are a few bright spots around the roster; Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart are a solid pair to build a lineup around and Hunter Greene and Chase Burns are a flamethrowing duo to lead the starting rotation. The rest of the roster is rather lackluster, and the wave of young talent that had been working its way through their farm system a few years ago hasn’t panned out at all.

PlayerPositionBatsPAK%BB%ISOwRC+
Elly De La CruzSSS35427.4%9.6%0.225130
Sal Stewart1BR42821.0%10.7%0.221114
JJ BledayLFL29719.9%13.8%0.243124
Spencer SteerRFR37122.1%9.2%0.188105
Eugenio SuárezDHR27936.2%8.6%0.18782
Tyler StephensonCR26524.9%10.6%0.14995
TJ FriedlCFL22223.4%8.1%0.08843
Edwin Arroyo2BS11421.1%26.0%0.04750
Ke’Bryan Hayes3BR13915.8%5.8%0.0777

Elly De La Cruz is one of the most dynamic, young players in baseball. He possesses an exciting combination of speed and power, and he’s managed to take a pretty big step forward at the plate this year. After an excellent debut last September, Sal Stewart has continued to pound big league pitching in his first full season. His contact quality isn’t great as it was last year, but he’s still been able to crush 20 home runs during his rookie campaign. The lineup goes downhill from there. JJ Bleday is in the middle of a nice bounce ball season and Spencer Steer has turned into a solid utility guy, but Eugeno Suárez is really showing his age now and TJ Friedl and Ke’Bryan Hays simply can’t hit enough to make up for their solid defense. 

A fun note: the two position player prospects sent to Cincinnati in the Luis Castillo deal are finally on the major league roster together. Noelvi Marte has had a rough, up-and-down start to his career that included a PED suspension last year. Edwin Arroyo was just recently made his major league debut last month, though he looks pretty overmatched by big league pitching. 

Probable Pitchers 

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

PitcherIPK%BB%HR/FB%GB%ERAFIP
Andrew Abbott10518.4%10.5%12.2%41.3%4.114.85
George Kirby11021.5%5.3%9.7%47.7%3.763.33
PitchUsage vRHBUsage vLHBVelocityStuff+Whiff+BIP+xwOBA
Four-seam46.0%47.6%92.691561050.405
Cutter2.3%0.0%88.6
Changeup25.1%1.1%85.9891201230.299
Curveball16.6%5.5%79.791751120.258
Sweeper10.0%45.8%82.2114901200.222

It seemed like Andrew Abbott had taken a big step forward last year; his strikeout-to-walk ratio improved to 3.47 and his ERA sat below three, even if his FIP was a little higher at 3.66. He hasn’t been able to replicate that success this season. His strikeout-to-walk ratio has fallen to 1.75 thanks to a huge jump in walk rate. He’s still putting his fastball in the zone a ton, but he’s trying to get batters to chase his secondary offerings outside the zone and it just isn’t working. He’s also suffered from a pretty significant increase in hard contact allowed — contact management was a big reason why he was so successful last year. None of the steps backwards are that big on their own, but taken all together and it’s a recipe for a pretty uneven season.

PitcherIPK%BB%HR/FB%GB%ERAFIP
Chase Burns102.228.6%9.0%10.5%36.1%2.543.40
Luis Castillo87.220.8%7.2%10.3%37.4%4.934.16
PitchUsage vRHBUsage vLHBVelocityStuff+Whiff+BIP+xwOBA
Four-seam53.3%59.4%97.8108811130.324
Changeup0.2%9.0%90.1891071060.427
Slider46.5%31.6%90.51251551070.195

Chase Burns is one of the most exciting young pitchers in baseball, and he just earned a huge pay day. Last week, the Reds signed him to a seven-year extension to keep him in Cincinnati until 2034. It’s easy to see why they like him so much. He easily reaches triple-digits with his fastball and possesses one of the nastiest sliders in baseball. The depth of his repertoire is pretty limited — right now, he’s working with the Spencer Strider two-pitch special — but he’s dabbled with a changeup and a curveball, though neither of those pitches is ready for primetime. It doesn’t really matter right now because his slider is so unhittable, and his fastball so difficult to square up, that he’s thriving without the need for a third or fourth pitch.

PitcherIPK%BB%HR/FB%GB%ERAFIP
Brady Singer96.219.2%7.2%18.6%43.0%4.565.44
Emerson Hancock99.124.1%6.4%11.0%41.0%3.173.66
PitchUsage vRHBUsage vLHBVelocityStuff+Whiff+BIP+xwOBA
Four-seam2.3%3.8%90.694
Sinker51.6%45.4%91.398106830.362
Cutter4.7%8.4%86.87991780.461
Slider25.1%33.2%82.586110680.294
Sweeper16.3%9.2%81.6861301010.316

Brady Singer is in the midst of the worst season of his career. Yes, his ERA isn’t as high as it was in 2023 when it was over five, but his peripherals have all taken a dive this season and his FIP has shot up to a career-high as a result. He’s lost a full tick off his fastball velocity, further degrading an already mediocre pitch. His two breaking balls are decent enough, especially against right-handed batters, but neither is very effective against opposite-handed opponents. He could really use a changeup to keep lefties at bay; instead, he’s tried to add a cutter to his pitch mix but that pitch has been crushed.


The Big Picture:

TeamW-LW%Games BehindRun DiffRecent Form
Rangers50-490.505-31L-W-L-W-L
Mariners50-500.5000.5+13L-W-L-W-W
Astros47-540.4654.0-53W-L-L-L-L
Athletics42-570.4248.0-114L-L-L-W-L
Angels39-610.39011.5-62L-L-L-L-W
TeamW-LW%Games BehindRun DiffRecent Form
Yankees55-440.556+4.5+85W-W-L-L-W
Guardians52-480.520+1.0-12W-W-L-W-L
Red Sox50-480.510+45W-W-W-W-W
Mariners50-500.5001.0+13L-W-L-W-W
Twins49-510.4902.0-24W-W-W-L-L
Orioles49-510.4902.0-13W-W-W-W-W

The Mariners gained a game on the Rangers after they dropped their weekend series against the Braves. Texas hosts the White Sox this week before a huge showdown against the M’s this weekend. The Astros were swept by the Orioles this past weekend, dropping to four games back in the division. Meanwhile, Baltimore has won seven straight and played their way onto the fringe of the Wild Card race. The O’s aren’t even the hottest team in baseball — that’s the Red Sox who have now won 13 in a row and are now in possession of the final Wild Card spot, a game ahead of the Mariners.

Villains need comeuppance: Phillies vs. Dodgers series preview

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - JULY 03: Teoscar Hernández #37 of the Los Angeles Dodgers reacts to his grand slam home run, to take a 4-3 lead, during the seventh inning against the San Diego Padres at Dodger Stadium on July 03, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Once again, the Phillies failed to come out of the All-Star break on a high note, dropping a series to the awful Mets. They need to put that unpleasantness behind them quickly, as the schedule becomes much tougher starting with a three-game set against the defending champions. As it happens, it is also the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year, so this would be a good opportunity to show that if they face off again, things might go differently.

Opposition research: Teoscar Hernandez

For many teams, having a high-profile player like Teoscar Hernandez suffer through a poor season would be a death knell for their playoff hopes. Hernandez suffered a hamstring injury in late May which cost him over a month on the Injured List. Since his return, he is batting .118 with one home run. Overall, he has an OPS of .698 which combined with his typically poor defense in the outfield has made him worth 0.1 WAR this season.

This is lining up to be Hernandez’s second straight disappointing season. He hit 25 home runs in 2025, but he also had a sub-.300 on-base percetnage. Unfortunately, that all-or-nothing trend carried into the postseason when he had a poor NLDS, except for one particular at bat.

Has this slowed the Dodgers down? Perhaps slightly, as they’re only 9-7 since his return. Does this preclude him from finding his stride come playoff time where he can deliver yet another big postseason hit? Not at all.

Remembering a guy who used to play for both teams

In theory, Mike Lieberthal had a solid career with the Phillies. In his 13 years with the team, he made two All-Star teams and won a Gold Glove at the catching position. It’s just unfortunate that he was cursed. His tenure with the team spanned from 1994 to 2006 which lined up exactly with a postseason drought. (The team bafflingly put him on their Wall of Fame in 2012 which kicked off another decade long playoff absence.)

After 2006, the team wisely handed the catching job to Carlos Ruiz and Lieberthal signed with the Dodgers as a free agent. He didn’t have much left in the tank by then. He played in 38 games with a meager .540 OPS as the Dodgers unsurprisingly missed the playoffs.

Sadly, he was allowed to leave in free agency after the season, and the Dodgers made it to the playoffs in 2008. (Thankfully, that story has a happy ending for Phillies fans!)

Hating on the Dodgers

It used to be fun that the Dodgers would have great regular seasons only to repeatedly come up short in the playoffs. It’s considerably less fun now that they’ve won two straight World Series and are heavy favorites to win a third this season.

Some people think that baseball is better when there’s a villain team that seems to play by its own financial rules, like the Yankees did in the late ‘90s. But you need to villain to sometimes receive a comeuppance. If the Dodgers win again this season, and it leads to a lengthy lockout in 2027, I don’t see how that is beneficial to the sport at all.

Additional thought about the series

The Phillies might have punted a little on the Mets series by holding out Cristopher Sanchez and Zack Wheeler. Hopefully, the additional rest agreed with Sanchez who hasn’t been at his best in recent appearances. The Phillies will likely have to get past the Dodgers to get to the World Series, and their best shot at that is if their dual aces dominate. This might be a good preview as to whether they’re up to the task.

Jared Jones has been dominant in his last three starts for Pirates

Jul 18, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Jared Jones (17) delivers a pitch in the second inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-Imagn Images | David Richard-Imagn Images

Jared Jones struggled in his first six starts after coming back from his right elbow injury. However, since the start of July Jones has been dominant for Pittsburgh becoming one of the hotter pitchers in the rotation. 

The 24-year-old became the third Pirates pitcher over the past 70 seasons to retire at least 30 consecutive batters. The streak ended Saturday during a 7-1 victory over the Cleveland Guardians in the first game of a doubleheader. He allowed one run on three hits and struck out a season-high nine in five innings.

Jones looked good on July 2 vs the Philadelphia Phillies. In four innings pitched he allowed just two hits and struck out six batters. Then in Atlanta he threw 6 perfect innings with eight strikeouts. 

Jones struggled in his first six outings of the season after coming back from the injury, going 1-1 with a 5.76 ERA. Opponents were seeing him and hitting well, hitting .270 and homered five times in 25 innings.

It has been the opposite in his last three outings, opponents are now just 5 for 50 (.100) at the plate. The right-handed pitcher has given up only two runs in 15 innings with 23 strikeouts and three walks.

Jones starting to pitch well is a good sign that he might be coming back fully after the injury. This is looking like his impressive rookie campaign in 2024. He had 132 strikeouts which was sixth in the majors among rookies that season while he went 6-8 with a 4.14 ERA.

The Pirates starting pitching has been solid this season. Paul Skenes and Braxton Ashcraft both making the All-Star game shows how strong they have been. If Jones can continue to pitch well, that would be a scary big threen in their rotation, especially with the Buccos in the middle of the National League Wild Card race.  

LeBron James' delayed decision is becoming a horrible look | Opinion

Today better be the day.

We’ve waited long enough.

LeBron James has kept the NBA and its fans twisting in the wind. Dragging out an announcement of where he’ll continue his illustrious basketball career.

In some ways, it's too late to reverse the reputational damage.

James, at 41, still has the ability to play like a man half his age. Now he’s acting like a man half his age as if desperate for attention.

If he chooses any team but the Cleveland Cavaliers, he risks alienating the fans in a city where he’s considered the prodigal son. Regardless, the process already has dredged up memories of “The Decision.’’

That decision took place in 2010. A one-hour special hosted by Jim Gray that aired on ESPN. During "The Decision,'' James announced, "I'm going to take my talents to South Beach and join the Miami Heat.’’

Now it's James' failure to say where he's taking his talents that's created irritation, frustration and, ultimately, resentment?

On June 30, James informed the Lakers he was moving out and playing elsewhere next season. His agent, Rich Paul, confirmed as much and since then has announced drips and drabs of so-called news.

Finally, James spoke for himself.

He made an appearance at Fanatics Fest in New York on July 17. Then toyed with the crowd about his undisclosed decision. Like he has indirectly toyed with the fan bases in Cleveland, Golden State, Miami, Philadelphia, and Minnesota.

James relishes being in the conversation as the NBA’s GOAT and he deserves it. But can you imagine Michael Jordan drawing out a decision like this? Or any of the NBA’s all-time greats?

This has dragged out longer than Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey.’’ But this saga is missing a heroic figure, Odysseus.

On the court, James is a hero, winner of four NBA titles, four MVPs, the league’s all-time leading scorer. But there's nothing heroic about this process.

NBA commissioner Adam Silver spoke last weekend about how James' decision (or lack thereof) affects the league.

On June 30, James informed the Lakers he was moving out and playing elsewhere next season. It’s been 20 days without a decision as of Monday, July 20.

A year after "The Decision,'' James half-apologized.

He better be prepared with a full apology for this mess.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: LeBron James' delayed decision is becoming a horrible look | Opinion

Pirates vs. Yankees prediction: Odds, recent stats, trends, and best bets for July 20

The New York Yankees (55-44) open a three-game series tonight at Yankee Stadium against the Pittsburgh Pirates (52-48). The Yankees enter the game second in the AL East, just 1.5 games behind Tampa Bay, while the Pirates are in the Wild Card race and fourth in the NL Central.

 

New York salvaged their series finale against the Dodgers, 2-1, last night to avoid a sweep coming out of the All-Star break. The Yankees are 3-2 over their last five games. Pittsburgh arrives in the Bronx after taking a weekend series in Cleveland. The Pirates won Sunday’s finale 7-1 and have gone 4-1 over their last five games.

 

Braxton Ashcraft is on the mound tonight for the Bucs. He has been one of Pittsburgh’s most reliable starters this season. Through 19 starts he owns a 3.49 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, with 128 strikeouts in 113.1 innings. In his most recent start on July 11 against Milwaukee, Ashcraft battled through five innings and earned the win despite allowing five runs on five hits while striking out six. Before that outing, he had allowed just two earned runs across 11.2 innings in road starts against Washington and Philadelphia.

 

Ryan Weathers takes a 4.15 ERA to the mound tonight for the Yankees. Weathers has struck out 110 batters in 97.2 innings this season. The southpaw was exceptional in his last start, July 10 at Washington, allowing one run on six hits over 5.1 innings. His previous two starts were shakier as he allowed a combined six runs over 5.2 innings.

 

Ashcraft has to keep the ball in the yard tonight as the Yankees lead baseball with 144 home runs but are hitting a collective .236 (#23 in baseball). The Pirates’ offense is less reliant on the long ball. They lead baseball with a .263 batting average and rank second in runs scored (533). Weathers is just one of a staff full of quality starting pitchers for New York. The Yankees lead baseball with a 3.40 ERA. For reference's sake, the Pirates rank nineteenth with a 4.26 ERA.

 

Lets dive further into tonight’s matchup and find a sweat or two.

 

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

 

Follow Rotoworld Player News for the latest fantasy and betting player news and analysis all season long.

 

Game Details and How to Watch: Pirates vs. Yankees

 

  • Date: Monday, July 20, 2026
  • Time: 7:05PM EST
  • Site: Yankee Stadium
  • City: New York, NY
  • Network/Streaming: MLB.TV, Sportsnet Pittsburgh, YES

 

Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.

 

The Latest Odds: Pirates vs. Yankees

The latest odds as of Monday courtesy of DraftKings:

  • Moneyline: Pittsburgh Pirates (-103), New York Yankees (-117)
  • Spread: Pirates -1.5 (+164), Yankees +1.5 (-200)
  • Total: 7.5 runs

 

Probable Starting Pitchers – Pirates vs. Yankees for July 20

  • Pirates: Braxton Ashcraft
    Season Totals: 113.1 IP, 9-3, 3.49 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 128K, 27 BB
  • Yankees: Ryan Weathers
    Season Totals: 97.2 IP, 3-7, 4.15 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 110K, 27 BB

Who’s Hot? Who’s Not! Pirates vs. Yankees

  • The Pirates’ offense has been one of the hottest in baseball recently, batting .280 with 17 home runs over the last 10 games.
  • Ben Rice is hitting .395 average with 5 HR and 12 RBI over his last 10 games
  • Trent Grisham has homered twice in his last 10 games but is hitting just .189 over those 10 games
  • Esmerlyn Valdez has 6 home runs and 15 RBI over his last 10 games
  • Ryan O'Hearn is hitting .286 over his last 10 games with a .395 OBP and .545 slugging percentage

 

Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!

 

Top Betting Trends & Insights: Pirates vs. Yankees

 

  • The Pirates are 52-48 on the Run Line this season
  • The Yankees are 47-52 on the Run Line this season
  • The OVER has cashed 58 times in Pittsburgh’s 100 games this season (58-39-3)
  • The OVER has cashed 43 times in New York’s 99 games this season (43-52-4)

 

Expert picks & predictions: Pirates vs. Yankees

 

Rotoworld Bet Best Bet

 

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.

 

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

 

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for tonight’s game between the Pirates and the Yankees:

 

  • Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Pirates on the Moneyline.
  • Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Pirates on the Run Line.
  • Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total OVER 7.5

 

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Seattle Mariners Minor League Roundup – Week Seventeen

MLB: Seattle Mariners-Media Day

Tacoma Rainiers

Coming out of the short week with a weekend series against a talented OKC team, the Rainiers managed to best the Dodger’s affiliate by a score of 2-1, largely led by the young wunderkinds that recently joined the squad. There are going to be some very serious conversations surrounding the likes of Michael Arroyo joining the big league team before the end of the summer; he’s been slept on in part to a slower start this year, but he’s been every bit of his dominant self and looks like a strong candidate to fill in as a much-needed right handed bat.

The final totals on the weekend for Arroyo (5-14) and Montes (4-12, HR, 3 2B) underscored the pair’s strong start to PCL baseball and featured Laz showing off an underrated part of his game: his absolute howitzer of an arm.

Additionally, Brendan Donovan started his rehab work in AAA. Though going hitless, he seems to be an imminent addition that should breathe some life into a rather tepid lineup at present.

Arkansas Travelers

Having been down their pair of aces for the past two weeks thanks to the Future’s Game and down their star tandem that’s tearing up Triple-A, the Travs lineup will be getting a little bit of star power it’s so desperately been looking for. Felnin Celesten, top Mariner prospect and superstar shortstop, got the call up to Double-A and will be manning the six for Arkansas to close out the year. It’s been a tremendous bounceback year for Celesten; after a tumultuous 2025 that lacked much offensive output at all, Celesten has had a monster 2026 that’s put him right back to his “Top 100” status leaguewide. Best of luck, Felnin!

Less fortunate for the Travs, however, were their results on the field. The Travelers got swept by a really poor Wichita team and could not quiet a generally uninspiring offense. The right-side duo of Hunter Fitz-Gerald and Charlie Pagliarini carried their weight, but it was a tough weekend on large.

Everett AquaSox

It was an offensive bonanza for Everett this weekend, with the Frogs taking a 2-1 series victory on the back of 37 runs over three games. Punctuated by Sunday’s 21-3 shellacking of cross-state rival Spokane, the AquaSox managed this kind of run production outside of their smaller home ballpark, instead doing it on the road in the much larger Avista Stadium. If this offense is able to maintain a level anywhere near this (with some recent SEC draftees likely on the way), this is sure to be one exciting summer of Everett baseball.

There’s a lot of cool moments to pick from with so much offense going on, but Luke Stevenson’s grand slam in the rubber match was a really cool sight to see. He had been struggling quite a bit in months past, but he seems to have gotten a bit more aggressive at the plate in the month of July, and it’s paid off in a major way. A hot finish to the season would do wonders in reestablishing people’s confidence in him long-term.

Not to be overlooked, catching partner Josh Caron’s 2026 season has truly been a revelation. Now with an OPS of .934, Caron’s run excellent splits against both lefties and righties, and he’s not been a product of an advantageous home ballpark, either; Caron’s 1.014 road OPS is actually considerably higher than his home mark, sparking confidence his breakout has some legitimate backing. There’s still a lot of whiff in his profile, but a backup catching role with some pop is very much in the cards.

Inland Empire 66ers

The 66ers dropped the weekend series by a score of 2-1, showing their lack of depth on both sides of the ball all weekend. This team desperately needs some of the many Power Four sluggers the M’s recently drafted to join this lineup; the lack of arms is their biggest issue at present, but if they can manage to pull off the “Cal League Special” and out hit their pitching, maybe they can get things back into the “fun to watch” column with the win column proving elusive all year.

Despite the team’s down weekend, Aiden Taurek continues to be a bright spot for this Modesto offense. Last year’s 13th rounder out of Saint Mary’s, Taurek produced seven hits across the three games and knocked his 31st double of the year, a figure that leads minor league baseball by a wide margin. Taurek’s a weak-side corner outfield profile and will have to hit his way to the bigs, but with a bit of speed on the bases and innate feel for the barrel, Taurek could be next in a long line of late-round finds identified by Scott Hunter and Co.

ACL Mariners

Heading into their last week of play, the Baby M’s stand in first within their division and lead the Royals’ team by a game with three to play. The two squads will face off on Wednesday in what will essentially decide this year’s winner, though with no stream, we’ll have to rely on box score watching to provide the drama that will assuredly unfold on the backfields of Arizona.

Whether Nick Becker and Yorger Bautista end up making their way to the California League this season is yet to be seen, but it’s far less of a formality than it’s been for top prospects in year’s past. With some legitimate troubles that need to be sorted out both at the plate and in the field, it would not be much of a surprise to see the pair remain in Arizona and get more direct instruction at the instructional complex. If anything, despite worse overall numbers, Bautista might actually have a better chance at getting the promotion than Becker; whiff problems are unlikely to magically sort themselves out, and unfortunately for Becker, he’s struggled with just that.

DSL Mariners

The DSL team remains a major bright spot in the system. With countless producers up and down the lineup and a handful of interesting pitching prospects, next year’s ACL team is slated to be absolutely stacked. Early returns of this next wave of young talent are looking incredibly promising, and there’s an argument to be made that the tandem of Gregory Pio and Juan Rijo need to be moved up prospect boards significantly.

MLB Player Props & Best Bets for Today, July 20

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Let's kick this week off on a high note!

Monday is filled with pitching props featuring Kyle Freeland, Jameson Taillon, and Payton Tolle, which give us plenty of high-value targets on today's betting card.

Let's dive into my favorite MLB player props, best bets, and MLB picks to attack on July 20.

Best MLB player props today

Player PickOdds
Mets Kyle FreelandOver 3.5 earned runs-108
Mets Jameson TaillonOver 2.5 earned runs-135
Mets Payton TolleOver 6.5 strikeouts+125

Kyle Freeland Over 3.5 earned runs (-108)

Typically, an Over 3.5 runs team total would make me a little nervous, unless it was a team like the Dodgers, but the Washington Nationals are a different story.

Washington gets after early runs, ranking second in first five runs scored while averaging Over three runs through the first five innings.

They draw Colorado Rockies southpaw Kyle Freeland, who has been awful all season. The veteran left-hander carries one of the worst pitcher ratings on the slate and now has to face a Nationals lineup featuring six elite-rated hitters and one strong-rated hitter based on the current season ratings at Batters-Box.

At home this season, Freeland owns a 6.38 ERA and 1.58 WHIP, while allowing a 40% hard-hit rate and 11% barrel rate.

The Nationals should have a field day in Coors.

I would play this down to -110 at most. 

  • Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: COLR, NATS

Jameson Taillon Over 2.5 earned runs (-135)

It is hard for me to overlook the data here, as Chicago Cubs right-hander Jameson Taillon draws six elite-rated Detroit Tigers bats while carrying one of the worst pitcher ratings on the day over at Batters-Box.

Taillon has struggled all season long, posting a 7.77 ERA, 6.92 xERA, and 1.64 WHIP. Over his last five starts, he has allowed a 42.67% hard-hit rate and a 16% barrel rate.

The Tigers have been a little cold offensively over their last six games, but I will always lean toward trusting the advanced data and betting on bad pitching being exposed over bad offense.

The wind is blowing out at Wrigley, which could provide some extra help tonight. I know this prop is juicy, so I would not pay much more than the current price.

If the first five team total is available at a better number, I would rather go that route.

  • Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: MARQ, DSN

Payton Tolle Over 6.5 strikeouts (+125)

I may just be drinking the "Payton Tolle is awesome" juice, but I absolutely love him to shove against the Baltimore Orioles this evening.

Sure, Baltimore’s offense has been heating up over the last few days, but its strikeout rate has still been hovering around 30%. The O's also have not fared well against southpaws this season, posting a 26% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching.

Over their last 60 at-bats vs. lefties, seven Orioles hitters have posted at least a 21.7% strikeout rate, six are at 25.4% or higher, and three are at least 31%.

There are plenty of strikeouts available in this lineup.

Meanwhile, Tolle has maintained a 30% strikeout rate both at home and over his last three starts.

At +125 for seven strikeouts, I think we are getting excellent value and should be in a great position to cash.

  • Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: NESN, MASN
Colby Marchio's 2026 Transparency Record
  • Prop picks: 313-586, -6.6 units

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Facing an uphill climb in Philadelphia

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - APRIL 6: Cristopher Sánchez #61 of the Philadelphia Phillies looks on against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Citizens Bank Park on April 6, 2025 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Phillies defeated the Dodgers 8-7. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) | Getty Images

As a whole, despite taking two out of three in one of the toughest places to visit, Yankee Stadium, the Dodgers offense didn’t have the best of times, twice failing to even crack three runs in a game. Well, the post-All-Star break journey doesn’t get any easier with a stop in Philly that begins with a matchup against the best left-handed pitcher in the National League, Cristopher Sánchez.

This particular task gets much more daunting when you account for Sánchez’s drastic splits this season. The Phillies’ ace will host the Dodgers with as many wins at home (7) as he has earned runs (7). While the left-hander is running a near 5.00 ERA on the road, raised significantly after a horrible start against the Royals a couple of weeks ago, Sánchez has a sub-1.00 ERA in a larger sample in front of his home crowd. One of the things that makes facing Sánchez even more difficult is that even when you think you have him, capitalizing on that opportunity is an entirely separate challenge. Take his last start, for instance: the Tigers had 10 hits against the Phillies ace, and yet multiple double plays on too many ground balls bullied them into scoring just two runs in a 4-2 defeat.

Until Blake Snell is back—with Shohei Ohtani taking a break from pitching for an undetermined period to fully recover his knee—the Dodgers will need a bit more from the likes of Emmet Sheehan, who, in turn, needs a bit more from the offense that has let him down in recent starts. Since the start of June, the Dodgers have won only one of Sheehan’s seven starts, even though the young right-hander has allowed more than three runs just once in this period.

Monday’s game info

  • Teams: Dodgers at Phillies
  • Ballpark: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
  • Start time: 4:10 p.m. PT
  • TV: ESPN
  • Radio: AM 570 (English), KTNQ 1020 AM (Spanish)

Which pitchers will the Braves (and other contenders) go after at the Trade Deadline?

ATLANTA, GEORGIA - APRIL 29: Tarik Skubal #29 of the Detroit Tigers pitches in the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park on April 29, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) | Getty Images

After what felt like a never-ending wait, the time to trade is nearly upon Major League Baseball. This year’s trade deadline is August 3 at 6 p.m. ET, giving contending clubs just two weeks to reinforce their rosters for the stretch drive. The Atlanta Braves are one of many teams seeking the missing pieces for their rosters.

The trade deadline is not what it used to be, however.

When the expanded playoff format went into place in 2022, it created more opportunity for clubs on the bubble to ponder their postseason chances. This caused many teams that previously had little or no path to the playoffs to take more time to carefully consider the decision to sell at the trade deadline.

Heading into Monday’s action, 23 of the 30 teams in MLB are within 4-1/2 games of a playoff berth. That creates an incredible amount of intrigue leading up to the deadline.

Atlanta entered the second half in first place, but its hold on the top spot in the National League East diminished greatly over the past two months. The Philadelphia Phillies whittled the Braves’ 10-1/2 game lead down to just two games by the All-Star break. The Miami Marlins also transformed into one of the hottest teams in baseball over the past six weeks, putting the Braves in the middle of a full-blown division race. Atlanta’s lead is currently three games, but in order to hold off these rivals and secure a postseason spot, the time to add pieces is near.

Over the winter, Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos expressed a desire to acquire a proven starter who could bolster the rotation come playoff time. When that did not happen during the offseason, it left Atlanta to depend on its organizational depth and a stable of starters with a litany of durability concerns and questionable availability in some cases.

Given the injuries which began in spring training and persisted throughout the regular season, it goes without saying that the Braves find themselves in a familiar position of needing help in the starting rotation. While it may have been reported that Anthopoulos is prioritizing offense in advance of the August 3 deadline, there is little reason to believe Atlanta will not also be having serious discussions about addressing their many pitching issues.

Just what are those issues? I’m glad you asked.

Potential returns for both Spencer Schwellenbach and Spencer Strider remain unclear. Though Schwellenbach is in Florida ramping up his throwing progression, Strider has not picked up a baseball since being placed on the injured list on June 13 with elbow inflammation. Given his lengthy history of elbow issues, both the injury and time remaining may be working against him.

AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep could help but carry their own viability concerns. Smith-Shawver is currently rehabbing with Triple-A Gwinnett and could be closing in his return from Tommy John surgery in just 13 months. Waldrep underwent surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow in Spring Training. Though he returned to the Atlanta rotation a few weeks ago, Waldrep was optioned back to Gwinnett to allow additional time to return to his 2025 form.

Martin Perez patched one of the rotation spots and should return this week after an injury scare when he was struck in the forearm with a line drive. All of these circumstances led to top prospects JR Ritchie and Owen Murphy being pressed into duty to mixed results.

With Reynaldo Lopez and Grant Holmes each essentially being five-inning pitchers and Bryce Elder regressing mightily after a strong start, there are simply more questions than answers for Atlanta’s starting five after Chris Sale takes his turn.

In 38 games since June 1, the Atlanta rotation averaged 4-2/3 innings per start. Only the Washington Nationals, San Diego Padres, and Chicago White Sox have received fewer innings from their rotation over that stretch. Braves starting pitchers have produced a combined 0.7 fWAR since June 1, a mark that is tied for 25th in Major League Baseball. Considering that Sale accounts for a 1.3 fWAR in his past seven starts, this paints a rather unflattering picture of the other eight Braves to start a game during that time.

Now that you’re up to speed on where the Braves stand, what they need, and why the need it, let’s take a look at some of the candidates. There will certainly be others, but I’ve identified 11 pitchers that could be dealt by the deadline. Since the ideal fit is subjective and is oftentimes price dependent, I’ll leave you to debate the merits and cost of acquiring each.


Tarik Skubal | DET | 29 y/o | 2.2 fWAR

May as well get this one out of the way first, because there’s not a bigger name that could be on the move as we approach the trade deadline. Skubal is the two-time, reigning, defending American League Cy Young Award winner. You don’t need me to tell you what that kind of talent can do for the rotation of any contending club. As such, expect just about every single contender or postseason hopeful to at least inquire with Detroit about Skubal.

That’s the good, but here’s the rest of the story. Skubal has appeared mortal at times this season. After starting 31 games, surpassing both 190 innings and 200 strikeouts while posting 2.39 and 2.21 ERAs in 2024 and 2025 respectively, Skubal is 6-5 with a 2.83 ERA in 14 starts this season. He also underwent surgery to clear loose bodies from his pitching elbow.

That cost him just six weeks because it was a cutting-edge procedure, but Skubal has been more homer-prone – eight in 39-1/3 innings – since returning to the Detroit rotation in mid-June. Of course, he also averaged 12.1 K/9 over that stretch. The first start out of the All-Star break was vintage Skubal – seven scoreless innings with nine strikeouts on Saturday, so perhaps the elevated home run rate is not quite the canary in the coal mine after all.

Regardless of the in-season elbow surgery, it’s hard to talk anyone out of the desire to add Skubal. However, the prospect bounty required will be exorbitant, even if there are lingering questions about not only his health but his direct path into whatever free agency looks like with a potential work stoppage awaiting. The last part of that discussion can wait, but it’s worth noting Skubal is due the remainder of a $32 million salary this season. Obviously, that’s unlikely to dissuade many suitors who are in the market for arguably the best pitcher in the game for the stretch drive.

Joe Ryan | MIN | 30 y/o | 3.3 fWAR

While the Minnesota Twins were the busiest team at the trade deadline a year ago, they currently have a legitimate shot at a postseason berth. The Twins find themselves contending for one of the AL Wild Card spots and are also in range in the AL Central race. That could make ace starter Joe Ryan difficult to acquire despite heavy interest.

Ryan is 6-5 with a 2.85 ERA in 20 starts and has struck out 128 batters across 110-1/3 innings while holding opponents to a .218 batting average and just a .614 OPS. Minnesota avoided arbitration by signing Ryan to a contract that calls for $6.1 million for this season and includes a $13 million mutual option with a $100,000 buyout for 2027. He is under team control through arbitration for another year even if that option is not exercised. Given his impressive work again this season, Ryan is likely to be one of the most sought-after starters on the trade market. As a result, he could be one of the most expensive to acquire given he is not just a rental.

Sonny Gray | BOS | 36 y/o | 1.8 fWAR

The 36-year-old veteran is currently fronting the rotation of the surging Red Sox. Gray is 12-1 with a 2. 48 ERA in 18 starts and Boston is riding a 13-game winning streak. The incredible turnaround allowed the Red Sox to claim the third Wild Card spot in the AL. Boston is a case study for why clubs aren’t in a hurry to trade off their pieces and what a well-timed winning streak can do for a team that many gave up on following an abysmal start. All of that winning puts Gray’s availability in serious question unless Boston falls apart in the next two weeks.

While his numbers are solid, Gray is significantly outperforming his both his 3.65 FIP and 3.67 xFIP and a 7.97 K/9 is his lowest since 2016, his fourth season in the big leagues. That does not necessarily set off alarm bells but is worth noting for sustainability’s sake. One of Gray’s best abilities is availability. He’s averaged 31 starts and 177 innings from 2023-2025. If a team is looking for a proven arm to throw competitive innings, then Gray may just be your guy.

Gray has a no-trade clause but could be convinced to waive it to pitch for Atlanta, a team close to his home in the Nashville area. The St. Louis Cardinals are paying $20 million of Gray’s $35 million salary this season, making the financial component more palatable for any team that acquires him. Gray also has a $30 million mutual option for 2027 which carries a $5 million buyout. The big question now is will the Red Sox actually be sellers? Time will tell.

Reid Detmers | LAA | 27 y/o | 3.0 fWAR

One of the youngest arms who could hit the market, Detmers is a talented yet inconsistent lefty starter who comes with several years of team control attached. In parts of six seasons with the Angels, Detmers has yet to really put everything together. He owns a 24-37 record to go along with a 4.64 ERA in 564 innings and moved back to the rotation this season after spending 2025 in the bullpen for Los Angeles.

The strikeout numbers are intriguing. Detmers has posted 10.2 K/9 and has 130 strikeouts in 114-2/3 innings across 19 starts this season. Just 3-6 with a 4.16 ERA, Detmers holds a respectable 3.21 FIP and 3.26 xERA per FanGraphs. Given the Angels are one of the worst fielding teams in baseball, a change of scenery could be just what Detmers needs to level up.

Unlike some of the bigger name starters who could change addresses by the deadline, the price tag on Detmers could be more reasonable. The fact that he’s not eligible for free agency until after the 2028 season only enhances Detmers’ value when parting with prospects.

Casey Mize | DET | 29 y/o | 2.7 fWAR

It took eight years, but the top pick in the 2018 draft is enjoying his best season as Detroit is struggling to stay afloat in the AL Central race. While Skubal is the Tigers starter everyone is talking about, Mize could be the more realistic target. The 4-6 record is deceiving as Mize owns a 2.79 ERA that is backed by a 2.62 FIP and 3.12 xERA. He is also averaging a career-best 9.2 K/9 through 15 starts and 80-1/3 innings this season.

Here’s the bad news, however. Mize was forced out of his most recent start over the weekend after being struck in the left wrist by a comebacker. While the Tigers aren’t overly concerned with that issue, it was revealed that Mize is also dealing with groin tightness. Mize described his early exit as precautionary, but the severity of that issue could impact his availability.

A true rental, Mize will be a free agent following the season. While his résumé is considerably lighter than Skubal’s, plenty of teams would like to add a capable starter who is enjoying his best season just as the pennant race heats up. Mize is an Alabama native who attended Auburn University before being drafted by the Tigers eight years ago. While he may not have produced the career Detroit envisioned, Mize picked a great time to put things together and could command a decent return in trade if he does get moved.

Michael Wacha | KCR | 35 y/o | 1.8 fWAR

One of two veterans the Royals could shop at the deadline, Michael Wacha is a battle-tested starter who provides quality innings on an annual basis. From 2022-2025, Wacha averaged 27 starts and 150 innings while logging a 3.46 ERA – though it does come against a 4.24 xERA. What’s hard to argue with are the innings themselves, which is what the Braves desperately need. An All-Star for the second time in his career – and first time in 11 years – Wacha leads the AL with 119-1/3 innings pitched while posting a 3.77 ERA in 19 starts thus far this season.

Wacha is owed the remainder of an $18 million salary this season and $14 million for 2027. The Royals also hold a $14 million team option with a $1 million buyout for 2028, which would be Wacha’s age-36 season. Given the money attached, Wacha may not be the most expensive trade piece moved at the deadline in terms of prospect return. His consistency, however, should be in demand and thus garner some value heading back to Kansas City.

Robbie Ray | SFG | 34 y/o | 0.7 fWAR

A former Cy Young Award winner who could be on the move as the San Francisco Giants reevaluate just what it is they’re building, Robbie Ray is putting together a solid season in the final year of a five-year, $115 million deal he signed with the Mariners prior to 2022. Ray made just 32 starts for Seattle before being shipped to San Francisco in January of 2024. After fully recovering from Tommy John surgery, he went 11-8 with a 3.65 ERA in 32 starts for the Giants last year, averaging 9.2 K/9 and posting a 2.2 fWAR.

While no longer a frontline starter who can lead the league in strikeouts, Ray still profiles as solid mid-rotation arm. He is 8-6 with a 3.33 ERA in 110-2/3 innings for the Giants so far in 2026 and could bolster the Braves’ depleted ranks and provide them with a second lefty in rotation. Another rental acquisition that will likely command a modest return unless a team is willing to overpay in prospect capital, Ray should draw interest from numerous contenders.

Trevor Rogers | BAL | 28 y/o | 1.9 fWAR

The Orioles entered the season with high hopes and Trevor Rogers was supposed to be part of their success on the mound. Instead, the club stumbled out of the gate and spent the majority of 2026 looking up in the standings at the Rays, Yankees and Blue Jays. Rogers was solid in his first three outings this season before getting absolutely blasted for a 10.01 ERA over the next seven starts and then spending a few weeks on the injured list due to a severe illness.

Rogers returned to form in June and owns a 1.69 ERA over his last eight starts while throwing 48 innings and allowing just two home runs. This looks a lot like the version of Rogers that went 9-3 with a 1.81 ERA in 18 starts for Baltimore last season. He may be outpitching his FIP, but Rogers has a five-pitch mix that can garner good results.

Acquired him from the Marlins at the trade deadline in 2024, he has enjoyed some success in Baltimore. Yet another pending free agent on this list, Rogers is owed just $6.2 million in his final year of arbitration. The Orioles are just two games out of the final Wild Card spot, so they may just hold onto Rogers and ride out the final two months.

Michael Soroka | ARI | 28 y/o | 2.2 fWAR

Here’s a blast from the past. After years of injuries and the subsequent search for consistency, Michael Soroka appears to have his career back on track with Arizona. He signed a one-year, $7.5 million contract over the winter and delivered a strong first half, going 8-3 with a 3.07 ERA (2.93 FIP) in 15 starts. Not only is Soroka boasting a healthy 8.7 K/9, but he finally solved the home run problem that plagued him since returning to the mound in 2023 after two major Achilles injuries with Atlanta. In short, Soroka looks a lot like the All-Star pitcher he was for the Braves at just 21 years old in 2019.

Unfortunately, Soroka is currently on the 15-day IL with a strained left glute. That injury occurred roughly a month ago and he is not expected back until early August. Not only will Arizona not have Soroka’s services at a critical juncture of their season, but they will not be able to showcase him for other teams should they decide to sell.

The Diamondbacks may be buried in the NL West standings, but the remain very much alive in the Wild Card. Arizona enters the week just a half game out of the race, though there is a three-way tie for that final spot. Like many teams, the next two weeks could decide the fate of the Diamondbacks when it comes to buying or selling at the deadline. If Soroka is made available, he would be an attractive piece for any contender to add to its rotation.

Seth Lugo | KCR | 36 y/o | 1.1 fWAR

Aside from Michael Wacha, another veteran starter the Royals could make available is righty Seth Lugo. After seven seasons pitching mostly in relief for the New York Mets, Lugo moved to the rotation with the San Diego Padres in 2023 and parlayed his success into a multi-year deal with Kansas City. The runner-up for the AL Cy Young in 2024 when he posted a career-high 4.7 fWAR and went 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA in 33 starts, regression came calling for Lugo over the past year and a half. He owns a 4.25 ERA over his past 46 starts, but his 5.31 xERA is the worst of the 42 starting pitchers who’ve thrown at least 250 innings since the start of 2025. His strikeout rate has also declined for the seventh consecutive season.

Whether or not the Royals want to cover some or most of his considerable salary in order to improve their prospect return is the major consideration in a Lugo trade. He is owed the remainder of a $21.5 million salary this season along with another $21.5 million next season, plus a $3 million buyout of his $17.5 million team option for 2028. There’s been no indication the Royals want to dump salary, even though they are operating at a club-record $140 million payroll this season. They may be hesitant to subtract veteran starters that could help them next season, cover some of the salary, and then have to find capable replacements.

Freddy Peralta | NYM | 30 y/o | 1.2 fWAR

The Mets acquired Freddy Peralta from the Brewers to help them make a playoff push in 2026, but the season has not played out favorably for New York or its newest starter. In the final season of a five-year contract, Peralta is suffering through his worst season. Just 5-8 with a 4.66 ERA in 20 starts, Peralta’s strikeout rate is a career-low 9.0 K/9 and his stuff has taken a noticeable step back as measured by MLB’s Statcast data.

What you have here is both a rental and a project, which is not exactly a great combination. Though stranger things have happened, the fact that Peralta is pitching for a division rival that seldom trades with Atlanta only raises the level of skepticism that a deal would materialize. This is due to the mutual desire by both clubs not to help one another outweighing any tangible benefit to swapping players. The last trade between the two teams was June 8, 2016, when Atlanta sent infielder Kelly Johnson to New York in exchange for pitching prospect Akeel Morris. Most importantly, this version of Peralta seems a far cry from the one who finished fifth in NL Cy Young voting just last year for Milwaukee.

Red Sox push winning streak to 13 before hosting the Orioles, who have won 7 straight

The All-Star break did little to slow down the resurgent Boston Red Sox.

Now they’ll take on another streaking AL East team as the race for postseason spots begins to simmer.

The Red Sox completed a sweep of division-leading Tampa Bay, extending their run to 13 games without a loss. The franchise record is 15 straight wins in 1946. Boston will have a chance to break that against a Baltimore team that arrives at Fenway Park on a seven-game winning streak of its own.

With the Aug. 3 trade deadline drawing ever closer, teams on the bubble between buying and selling might make their decisions based on what happens over the next week or so. The Red Sox (50-48) have crept above .500 and now occupy the American League’s third wild card. Cleveland, which holds the second wild card, is only a game ahead of Boston.

Seattle is a game behind the Red Sox, and then it’s another game back to the Orioles, who took three in a row in Houston. That sweep knocked the Astros to 4 1/2 games behind a playoff spot.

The good news for Houston is that it has more than one path to the postseason. The Astros actually are closer (four games) to the lead in the AL West than they are to a wild card.

Detroit is in a similar spot, and plenty of teams around the league will be watching how the Tigers approach the deadline with star pitcher Tarik Skubal. Detroit is 4 1/2 games out of a wild card, but also just 6 1/2 behind the AL Central-leading White Sox.

Trivia time

The American League beat the National League 4-0, and Cody Bellinger became the fourth member of the New York Yankees to win All-Star MVP honors. Who were the other three? (Hint: The All-Star MVP debuted in 1962.)

Performance of the week

Hunter Goodman homered three times in Colorado’s 9-6 loss to Cincinnati. It was the second three-homer game for him in under a month. He also did it at Minnesota on June 27.

He’s the first player in Rockies history — which includes plenty of homers — to hit three twice in the same season.

Comeback of the week

Arizona beat St. Louis 8-7 in 10 innings in a game the Diamondbacks trailed 7-0 in the sixth inning.

The Cardinals allowed two bases-loaded walks during Arizona’s three-run sixth. Geraldo Perdomo hit a two-run inside-the-park home run an inning later. A two-run homer by Nolan Arenado tied it in the eighth.

Then St. Louis blundered its way to a scoreless top of the 10th. With men on first and third and nobody out, Jordan Walker hit a broken bat flare to Perdomo at shortstop, who charged the ball and caught it on the fly. Bryan Torres, apparently worried about the ball hitting the ground in front of Walker, was too far off first and got doubled off.

Max Kepler’s hit in the bottom of the 10th won it. Arizona’s win probability in the sixth was as low as 1.5% according to Baseball Savant. That makes the Diamondbacks’ playoff chances — 27.4% according to FanGraphs — seem promising by comparison. Arizona is a half-game behind the Cardinals for the National League’s final wild card.

Trivia answer

Giancarlo Stanton in 2022, Mariano Rivera in 2013 and Derek Jeter in 2000.

Chicago Cubs update: Nico Hoerner, Shōta Imanaga, Matthew Boyd

There were only three games played by MLB teams over the past week because of the All-Star break.

I’m not going to let that stop me from doing a “weekly” update. So, here’s who was hot and not for the Cubs over those three games.

Three up

Welcome back, Nico Hoerner’s bat

The break seems to have done Nico some good, whether it was rest, or working on things, or both. Hoerner went 8-for-13 (.615) over the three games against the Twins with one extra-base hit (Sunday’s triple) and five RBI.

Here’s the triple [VIDEO].

There was some discussion in Sunday’s recap comment section about whether that should have been scored a single and a two-base error. The thing is, Twins center fielder Luke Keaschall never touched the ball, simply waving at it as it went by. Having actually been an official scorer at some minor league games, I concur with the scoring decision that gave Nico the triple.

In any case, nice to see Nico’s bat back. That will be a huge help to the offense.

Shōta Imanaga threw some shutdown innings

Imanaga threw seven scoreless innings against the Twins Sunday, allowing just six hits and striking out four.

Since an awful five-start stretch in May and June in which he allowed 13 (!) home runs in 28.1 innings, he’s been pretty much lights-out: Seven starts, 2.31 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 1.243 WHIP, only five home runs in 39 innings. He’s now got his season ERA under 4.00 at 3.91. If he keeps this up, he’ll be starting postseason games, something Craig Counsell wouldn’t do with him in Game 5 against the Brewers last year.

Here’s more on Imanaga’s outing Sunday [VIDEO].

Matthew Boyd has also thrown well recently

Boyd continued his good stretch of starts following his knee injury with a solid outing Saturday against the Twins: Six innings, three hits, one run (a solo homer) and four strikeouts.

Since returning from the knee injury: Five starts, 2.57 ERA, 1.143 WHIP. His season ERA in 10 starts is now down to 4.15, and overall since his rough Opening Day start it’s at 3.35. Like Imanaga, he’s putting together a good run of starts which could serve the team well in October.

H/T to Seiya Suzuki, who went 4-f0r-9 against the Twins with two doubles, four RBI and four runs scored, and to Alex Bregman for his two-run homer that began the festivities on Sunday.

Three down

Pete Crow-Armstrong had a rough weekend at the plate

PCA was 1-for-12 with six strikeouts against the Twins, and at times appeared to be reverting to some bad habits that we thought might be gone.

Every hitter goes through slumps and bad times, and in fact, this goes back to the Cincinnati series before the break. Over the six games in the Reds and Twins series, PCA is 2-for-22 with 11 strikeouts.

Hopefully he can turn this around beginning tonight. It hasn’t affected his defense, though [VIDEO].

Dansby Swanson has cooled off

After a hot streak in late June and early July, Swanson went just 1-for-9 against the Twins, though the one hit was a triple and he also stole a base.

Hopefully, he picks things up against the Tigers.

Ian Happ is also on a cold streak

Happ also went just 1-for-9 against Minnesota, though he did walk three times and scored twice.

And he, too, made a nice defensive play [VIDEO].

Monday Stat Party: All-Philly Week

PHILADELPHIA, PA - JULY 14: Juan Soto #22 of the New York Mets walks on the carpet during the 2026 All-Star Red Carpet Show presented by Mastercard at Independence Mall on Tuesday, July 14, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mary DeCicco/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

Welcome back to Monday Stat Party, a weekly series showcasing some of the most curious and nostalgia-inducing statistical developments from the past week of Mets baseball. What unites each entry is the sense of intrigue which they aim to spark, and the unbridled love of the game’s anomalies from which they arise. Without further ado, let the stat party begin.

TUESDAY

Juan Soto became the third Met to start the All-Star Gamein right field, along with Dave Kingman (1976) and Darryl Strawberry (1984-1988). Soto also became just the sixth Met since 2000 to get a hit in an All-Star Game, joining Carlos Beltrán (2005-2007, 2011), David Wright (2006-2010, 2013), José Reyes (2007), Michael Conforto (2017), and Pete Alonso (2019, 2025).

The All-Star Game resulted in a shutout for the first time since 2013, when the American League defeated the National League by a final of 3-0 at Citi Field.

THURSDAY

Luke Weaver’s dazzling streak came to an end with Trea Turner’s solo home run. His 25 consecutive appearances without allowing an earned run is tied for the second-longest such streak in Mets history with A.J. Minter, behind only Mark Guthrie’s 33 straight in 2002.

SATURDAY

A.J. Ewing became just the 10th Met to record 10 stolen bases before their 60th career game, joining Lee Mazzilli, Mookie Wilson, Darryl Strawberry, Lenny Dykstra, José Reyes, Carlos Gómez, Luisangel Acuña, Ronny Mauricio, and fellow 2026 rookie outfielder Carson Benge.

Kyle Schwarber hit his 26th homer against the Mets, fourth-most among active players behind teammate Bryce Harper (43), Giancarlo Stanton (38), and Freddie Freeman (31).

SUNDAY

Francisco Lindor reached base five times in a game for the fifth time in his career, having previously done so twice with Cleveland (September 3, 2016, vs. Miami / July 1, 2018, at Oakland) and twice with the Mets (July 6, 2023, at Arizona / September 5, 2025, at Cincinnati — better remembered as the new-cleat game).

Nolan McLean struck out 10+ batters in a game for the second time this season, and the third time in his career. No Met besides McLean has recorded a double-digit strikeout performance since David Peterson on August 19, 2025, in Washington.

McLean has a 0.47 ERA over his first three career starts against the Phillies, by far the best for any Met through their first three outings (min. 5 IP per outing) against the rival Phillies. Frank Viola is second with a 0.87 ERA, while Jon Matlack is third with a 1.01 ERA.

Miscellaneous Mets stat of the week:

Before 2026, the last time the All-Star Game was played in Philadelphia was 1996. Mets center fielder Lance Johnson started and went 3-for-4, marking one of two three-hit performances at an All-Star Game in Mets history (the other was José Reyes in 2007 in San Francisco).

Rangers Reacts Results: The Draft

Last week, our Rangers Reacts survey asked folks to grade the team’s 2026 draft. This turned out to be one of the rare instances where most everyone was pretty pleased.

Over 90% of respondents gave the draft either an A or a B, with the B’s narrowly edging out the A’s. Most of the rest gave the draft a C, with 1% apiece going with D or F.

As for the national questions, over half of respondents feel that the draft should go back to being held in June.

MLB had a June draft for decades, with the result being that players were being picked while the college season was still going on. The July draft allows for a draft combine to take place once the college season is over, as well as giving the opportunity for less-heralded players to play in the MLB Draft League or other early summer leagues, and potentially improve their draft status.

The other question has to do with the Futures Game, which MLB seems to be giving short shrift.

Having the Futures Game take place on the Sunday before the All Star Break, when major league games are taking place, doesn’t seem to be the best way to promote the game. But what do I know…

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All-Star Hunter Goodman becomes 1st Rockies player with a pair of 3-homer games in the same season

DENVER — Hunter Goodman went deep three times to not only break out of a mini-homer slump but break into an exclusive Colorado Rockies club in which he’s now the founder.

The All-Star catcher became the lone player in franchise history to turn in a pair of three-homer games in the same season. Hall of Famers Todd Helton and Larry Walker never accomplished this particular feat. Neither did any of the famed “Blake Street Bombers.”

“Definitely cool knowing all the guys, the great players that have played here, the Hall of Famers that have played here,” Goodman said after the Rockies lost 9-6 to the Cincinnati Reds to drop two of three in the series. “It’s a pretty cool accomplishment.”

Goodman’s big day included two homers off Hunter Greene — a solo shot in the first and a two-run liner in the sixth — along with another two-run shot off reliever Sam Moll in the eighth. Those were homers No. 28, 29 and 30 of the season for Goodman.

This after not going deep since July 1. This after not being picked for the Home Run Derby. This after a day off from the hitting. Goodman wasn’t in the lineup Saturday and decided to not swing a bat in an effort to rest up.

“I feel like some of those off days you just take the full day and kind of just reset a little bit,” explained Goodman, who also had a three-homer game at Minnesota on June 27. “It’s not always the swing. It’s not always different stuff like that. Sometimes you’ve just got to keep going.”

And going and going and going — his three homers were a combined estimated total distance of 1,302 feet.

Turns out, it was just a good day to be a catcher in this game. Goodman’s counterpart, Tyler Stephenson, had two of Cincinnati’s four homers.

Give some credit to a hot summer day and this being Coors Field.

“The ball ball tends to fly on those days,” Goodman said. “And then I got some good pitches to hit.”

More specifically, a slider and fastball (98.6 mph) from Greene and a sinker from Moll.

Goodman became the fourth player in franchise history with at least a pair of three-homer games in their careers, joining the company of Walker, Helton and Carlos González. His just so happened to occur all in the span of a few weeks.

Here’s more history for Goodman: He’s the fourth-fastest Rockies player to reach 30 homers in a season (101 team games). The only ones ahead of him are Vinny Castilla (97 in 1998), Andrés Galarraga (99 in 1994) and Walker (100 in 1999), according to Rockies research.

“He looks dangerous. He just looks in sync,” manager Warren Schaeffer said of Goodman. “He was really good. You can see the confidence kind of seep out.”

Jaylen Brown’s first return to TD Garden is set for the preseason

LAS VEGAS, NV - JULY 11: Jameer Nelson, Nick Nurse and Jaylen Brown attends a game between the Indiana Pacers and Philadelphia 76ers on July 11, 2026 at the Cox Pavilion in Las Vegas, Nevada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Brian Choi/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images

The NBA preseason schedule is officially out, and with it comes the first opportunity for Jaylen Brown to return to TD Garden since the blockbuster offseason trade that sent him to the Philadelphia 76ers.

The Celtics will host Philadelphia on Oct. 10 before making the trip to face the Sixers on Oct. 16, giving Brown two chances to face his former team before the regular season begins.

Whether Celtics fans actually see Brown on the floor in Boston, however, remains an open question.

Veteran stars often play limited preseason minutes, if they suit up at all, and Philadelphia could choose to ease Brown into training camp rather than having him play in both exhibition games. Even if that’s the case, Oct. 10 now stands as the first date Boston fans can circle as Brown’s return to TD Garden draws closer.

If Brown does play, it’ll mark his first appearance in Boston since the trade that ended one of the most successful individual tenures in recent Celtics history.

Selected third overall in the 2016 NBA Draft, Brown spent nine seasons with the Celtics, developing from a raw, athletic wing into a four-time All-Star, NBA champion and one of the franchise’s cornerstone players. Alongside Jayson Tatum, he helped lead Boston to multiple Eastern Conference Finals appearances and delivered Banner 19 before the organization made one of the boldest roster moves of Brad Stevens’ tenure this summer.

The preseason matchup also offers the first opportunity for Brown and Paul George to face their former teams following a trade that reshaped the balance of power in the Eastern Conference. Assuming both veterans are available, the Oct. 10 game would provide an early glimpse of two Eastern Conference contenders, even if the result won’t count in the standings.

Preseason games are notoriously unpredictable when it comes to star availability. Teams frequently prioritize conditioning, experimentation and evaluating younger players over giving established veterans extended run, particularly in the first week of exhibition play. Brown, George and several other key contributors could ultimately see only a handful of minutes, or none at all.

Still, the schedule release gives Celtics fans something they didn’t have yesterday: a date for Brown’s first possible return to the Garden.

Boston’s full preseason schedule is as follows:

  • Oct. 8: at Cleveland Cavaliers (7 p.m. ET)
  • Oct. 10: vs. Philadelphia 76ers (8 p.m. ET)
  • Oct. 14: vs. Charlotte Hornets (7:30 p.m. ET)
  • Oct. 16: at Philadelphia 76ers (7 p.m. ET)

The NBA has not yet announced the 2026-27 regular season schedule, meaning these preseason meetings will be the first chance for Brown to reunite with his former team.

Whether that reunion lasts 30 minutes or simply consists of Brown waving to a familiar crowd from the bench will depend on Philadelphia’s plans once training camp gets underway.