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The San Diego Padres are priced as 59% moneyline favorites tonight against the Cincinnati Reds right-hander Brady Singer. The first pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park.

With Singer struggling and Michael King finding his best lately, my Padres vs Reds predictions confidently back San Diego. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Monday, Aug. 31. 

Who will win Padres vs Reds today: Padres (59%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Michael King gives the San Diego Padres the more trustworthy starting point tonight. The right-hander has compiled a 3.10 xERA over his last two starts while allowing just 0.66 HR/9 and holding opponents to a 22.9% hard-hit rate.

That profile gives him a clear edge over Cincinnati Reds righty Brady Singer, who owns a 5.74 FIP during that same span while allowing 1.54 HR/9 and an alarming 53.8% hard-hit rate.

San Diego has not been in great offensive form, but this matchup still creates value. King’s steadier profile and Singer’s recent contact issues make the Padres the cleaner side.

Play this pick up to 62%.

COVERS INTEL: Singer has also had issues at home this season, posting a 5.57 FIP. On the road, that number sits at 4.76. 

Padres vs Reds Over/Under pick: Under 9.5 (55%)

With the total sitting at 9.5, the Under presents value tonight.

Despite Singer’s recent vulnerability, San Diego isn't in the kind of offensive form where I expect a full-on explosion. Cincinnati’s bullpen has also been poor, but the Padres would likely need to do most of the damage to push this Over.

The Reds have been respectable offensively lately, posting a 115 wRC+ over the last week, but they still draw a tough matchup against King. San Diego’s relief corps is also dealing, with a 3.17 xERA over the last week and minimal home run damage.

This number feels a bit high.

Play this pick up to 60%.

Padres vs Reds home run prediction: Sal Stewart (18%)

Sal Stewart cannot be stopped right now. He's clubbed four home runs in his last six games while posting a .500 ISO during that span. 

Obviously, the matchup here doesn't have a ton of value, but Stewart has a 60% fly-ball rate over the last week, and King has allowed 40% of his contact through the air over his previous two starts. 

The Padres' pen has also given up 1.17 HR/9 in its last 23 frames. Stewart's 25% barrel rate recently strengthens this play. One mistake could leave the yard.

Play up to 20%.

Padres vs Reds weather

Weather at Great American Ball Park looks warm and clear tonight, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures falling from 92°F to 84°F. Rain chances sit at just 2%, and winds ease from about 7 mph to 3 mph. No delay concern, and the heat could slightly help carry.

Padres vs Reds odds

• Moneyline: Padres 59% | Reds 42%
• Run line: Padres -1.5 (46%) | Reds +1.5 (55%)
• Over/Under: Over 9.5 (46%) | Under 9.5 (55%)

Padres vs Reds trend

The Cincinnati Reds have hit the game total Under in 25 of their last 45 home games (+4.50 Units / 9% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Reds.

How to watch Padres vs Reds and game info

Padres vs Reds latest injuries

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Center field is one of those defensive positions where the Kansas City Royals have been blessed to have a long history of excellent players.

Between 1970 and 1990, Amos Otis and Willie Wilson played a combined 24,632.2 innings in center—nearly 90% of all center field innings across that two-decade span. From 1995 to 2004, Carlos Beltran and Johnny Damon combined to play 9,823 innings in center field—nearly 70% of all center field innings in that span. And from 2011 through 2017, Lorenzo Cain and Jarrod Dyson combined to play 7,728 innings—or just above 75% of all available center field innings. In fact, those six players have played 52% of all regular season center field innings in the entire history of the franchise.

And right below some of those titans has been Kyle Isbel, whose 3,672.1 innings in center field ranks seventh-most in Royals history. In his six years with the team, Isbel has been a reliably great defender and has never posted a Wins Above Replacement figure below 0.5, per Fangraphs’ version of the stat.

But though Isbel has been a solid role player, he’s not a permanent option. Setting aside potential collective bargaining agreement shenanigans, Isbel is set to become a free agent.

It’s true that Isbel’s likely $4 million or so salary next year, his final year of arbitration, won’t break the bank. However, at that price, you have to start looking at Isbel’s production with a little more scrutiny. Isbel’s defense is his calling card, but he doesn’t have a lot of other tools. As a baserunner, he’s only good for eight or so stolen bases a year. As a hitter, he doesn’t hit for average, walk much, or crush extra base hits. And he’s also never been a reliably healthy player, either; he’s averaged 109 games per year over the past five seasons, and he’s never played more than 136.

Now, some of that lack of playing time is due to his pretty extreme splits. Against right-handed pitching in his career, he’s hit .243/.290/.383—not great, but serviceable with his defense. Against left-handed pitching, though, he’s hit a rather abysmal .213/.274/.280—a line that you can’t really have in the lineup at all. And so, even when he is healthy, Isbel rides the pine when a lefty starter is on the bump.

All of this means that Isbel is not a smart free agent re-sign option for Kansas City. Somebody will sign him to be what he really is: a platoon- and defense-first fourth outfielder, a very useful bench option. But for Kansas City to re-up on him as the starting center fielder? That’s a risk.

The real question, then, is who Isbel’s successor, or successors, might be. I’ve discussed Tyler Tolbert before, who might be a late bloomer and could be a platoon option in center field. But frankly, the Royals’ best option to fill in for Isbel is probably Carson Roccaforte. Roccaforte won the organization’s Frank White Defensive Player of the Year award last year for his work in center field, his second consecutive season winning the award.

There’s also the fact that Roccaforte has grown into some rather impressive power. After hitting 18 home runs last year, he’s hit 32 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A this year.

But Roccaforte does come with some downside—namely, that he strikes out 30% of the time, a figure that could rise in the big leagues.

The other option in Triple-A is the forgotten one: Gavin Cross, the onetime top-10 draft pick who has hit .314/.360/.579 since mid-May in Omaha. Could Cross run in the Royals extensive centerfield grass as a guy who has played mostly corner outfield as a pro? Maybe—but then again, the Royals still have Isbel next year, and in 2030 they’d have their new and ostensibly smaller stadium.

What’s particularly interesting here is that the looming CBA lockout and the Royals’ recent winning streak have thrown a wrench into what could be a very interesting trial period for one of Roccaforte or Cross in September. Of course, the Royals also have another option: getting an outfielder in free agency. But it seems more likely that what money exists should be spent on pitching and maybe a corner outfield bat. And who knows; maybe Isbel will get one last hurrah next year as the starting center fielder. David DeJesus ranks sixth with 4,276.2 career center field innings for the Royals. That number is in range for Isbel to surpass.

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It's the unofficial last week of summer, which might be depressing, but cashing some dingers and MLB player props is the medicine I need on a rainy Monday.

Carson Benge might be lefty-vs-lefty, but the reverse splits are showing a lot of value. Staying with the lefty-vs-lefty theme, Pete Crow-Armstrong's price is a green light today at a windy Wrigley Field.

These are my favorite home run props for Monday, Aug. 31. 

MLB home run props for today

For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Player to hit a HR	Chance
Carson Benge	11%
Pete Crow-Armstrong	25%

Home run prediction: Carson Benge (11%)

Lefty Ian Seymour is a sneaky home run target today, and I'm looking at a lefty-on-lefty matchup that is much better on paper than most would assume.

Seymour is a reverse-splits pitcher, as lefties hit him for a better average and more power. Left-handed hitters go yard once every 15.8 batters against him, compared to once every 32 right-handed batters.

That's a great home run rate for left-handed hitters, who are almost always priced longer when facing southpaws. Finding reverse splits on either a pitcher or hitter can create value, and in this case, we have both.

Carson Benge is the home run target at a price more than 200 points higher than his average number. He's a left-handed bat who hits dingers against right-handers once every 36.4 batters, but that rate jumps to once every 28 batters against lefties this year.

His slugging splits are fairly even, and he might be the second-best hitter in the lineup over the last two weeks, with two homers.

It's a lefty-lefty matchup with a lot of value at this price once you look under the hood, even if the surface-level matchup is priced heavily in favor of the pitcher.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Rays.TV, SNY

Home run prediction: Pete Crow-Armstrong (25%)

It's another day of backing Pete Crow-Armstrong to go yard, and things are aligning for Monday.

Kyle Harrison's sub-3.00 ERA makes this look like a tough matchup on paper, but he gives up homers and has had multiple three-homer games.

The lefty-on-lefty matchup is another spot where the batter has no issues with the splits. PCA has better power numbers against left-handed pitching, while Harrison actually allows a worse average to left-handed hitters.

Crow-Armstrong has moved from 67% to 94% in the NL MVP odds because he's still raking, with a league-leading 10 homers over the last two weeks. Play to 29%.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Marquee Sports Network, Brewers.TV

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1926
In a twin bill at Detroit, White Sox infielder Ray Morehart tied a major-league record in cranking out nine hits in 10 at-bats! Morehart went 5-for-6 in the opener, and then capped it off with a 4-for-4 performance in the nightcap. Two of his nine hits were doubles.

Morehead’s five hits fueled a 19-2 win in the opener, which remains tied for the 12th-most runs in a game in franchise history and the 17-run win remains tied for third-biggest ever. The White Sox lost the nightcap, 7-6.

1935
In the highlight of his career, White Sox rookie pitcher Vern Kennedy threw a 5-0 no-hitter against Cleveland, at Comiskey Park. The no-hitter was saved in the ninth inning when with one out, outfielder Al Simmons made a diving catch on a ball. 

Kennedy didn’t even realize he had a no-hitter going until the final out!

Kennedy also had the game-breaking hit in the contest, a bases-loaded triple, driving in three runs in the sixth inning. It was also the first no-hitter in the American League since 1931.

Kennedy’s four walks against just five strikeouts gave him a relatively low game score of 88, which ranks in a tie for 121st in all White Sox starts in history.

1964
White Sox catcher Jerry McNertney was part of the cover shot for Sports Illustrated, in one of the few black-and-white covers ever done by the magazine.

1970
With the White Sox approaching the end of their worst season in franchise history, GM Ed Short was fired after nine years on the job. Short made brilliant offseason deals in 1963 and 1964 to net the club players like Hoyt Wilhelm, Pete Ward, Tommy John and Tommie Agee, but starting in 1968 his moves backfired and lost the club players like Agee, Tommy McCraw, Don Buford and Bob Locker without getting anything substantial in return.

Shorthad started his White Sox career in 1950, when he was hired to serve as publicity director and then later as traveling secretary. In an almost equally-strange move as promoting your PR man/traveling secretary as GM, the White Sox named as Short’s replacement Stu Holcomb, at the time the GM of the Chicago Mustangs NASL soccer club and previously a basketball and football coach.

In just two days, the housecleaning continued as Holcomb told manager Don Gutteridge he would not be brought back for 1971, with Gutteridge resigning as a result. Scouts and other front-office personnel also would be gone, in a massive house cleaning. 

1993
Outfielder Tim Raines became only the second White Sox player to homer from both sides of the plate in the same game. He did it at Yankee Stadium, as he victimized Sterling Hitchcock and Rich Monteleone to help the Sox coast to an 11-3 win. Raines went 3-for-5, with two runs and four RBIs. His home runs came in the fifth and ninth innings. Raines also stole his 744th career base, placing him fourth on the all-time list.

Also in this game, Frank Thomas had a homer that counted as two milestones. It was his 37th of the season, tying Dick Allen and Carlton Fisk for most in team history, as well as Big Frank’s 100th career round-tripper.

2010
Edwin Jackson stopped just one out short of a complete-game, 4-3 win at Cleveland. And in striking out 11, he became just the third White Sox pitcher to punch out double-figure batters in three consecutive games (Ed Walsh, 1910, and Floyd Bannister, 1985).

The win also completed a miraculous career start in Chicago for Jackson, who after being acquired from the Arizona Diamondbacks on July 30 went 3-2 with a 1.47 ERA and 45 strikeouts against eight walks in five starts.

2023
After the firing of both Ken Williams and Rick Hahn, White Sox fans were hoping that owner Jerry Reinsdorf would go out and bring in a top-notch executive from a consistently-winning organization to rebuild the franchise, which sank to new lows both on and off the field.

Instead, Reinsdorf decided to promote former Sox infielder Chris Getz to GM.

Getz had been in charge of the White Sox minor league operation for the past seven years, an operation that usually ranked near the bottom in MLB rankings and failed to develop anyone outside of a few high draft picks to produce for the big league club.

White Sox fans, and even many in the mainstream media, were highly critical of the decision — but not completely shocked, given Reinsdorf’s history.

2024
As August — not September, not October — came to a close, the White Sox tied their all-time franchise losses mark with a 5-3 loss to the Mets. Back-to-back, two-out homers in the first inning ensured that New York would never trail in the game.

The loss dropped the White Sox to 31-106, tying the 1970 White Sox for most losses in team history. They had 25 games left to break the record.

2025
In the sixth inning of a 3-2 White Sox win over the Yankees in Chicago, rookie Colson Montgomery hammered a slider from Luis Gil to center field for a solo home run.

The 412-foot blast for Montgomery gave the shortstop 10 homers in August. That total tied José Abreu in April and June 2014 for the most by a rookie in a calendar month in White Sox history. On the season, it was No. 15 for the former first round draft pick.

After the Yanks bludgeoned Boston Sunday, it was time to scoreboard watch. Most notably, could the Padres do us all a solid and knock off the Rays? To the surprise of absolutely no one, the answer was no. So while the Yankees put more distance between themselves and Boston and clinched the season series between the two eternal rivals, there was no ground gained on Tampa.

Elsewhere, a former Baby Bomber achieved a career milestone while a future Hall of Fame hurler further stated his Cooperstown case.

Tampa Bay Rays (82-54) 5, San Diego Padres (72-65) 4 (F/11)

Bloody Devil Magic. The Padres looked to have this game wrapped up, with a ninth-inning lead and Mason Miller on the mound. Since joining the Padres last season, the All-World closer had surrendered precisely two home runs over 79.2 frames as he took the mound Sunday. So, of course he promptly gave up a game-tying two-run blast to Johnny DeLuca. But hold on. This was no run of the mill home run.

As I said, bloody Devil Magic. After a scoreless 10th, the Dads took a lead in the 11th. But it was all for naught. A DeLuca ground ball to Xander Bogaerts ended in an error and re-tied the game. Then, former Yankee farmhand Jorge Mateo ended it with a walk-off single.

Other Games

Chicago White Sox (72-64) 1, Minnesota Twins (65-72) 5: For all intents and purposes, this one was over before the opening frame came to a close. Minnesota plated three in the home first, more than enough for starter Zebby Matthews. Matthews took a shutout into the ninth before the Pale Hose managed to scrape across a run. Matthews’ day ended with 8.1 innings allowing that lone run. That continues a strong run, as he has pitched to a 3.21 ERA in his last seven outings, averaging 6 IP/start.

Houston Astros (69-68) 6, New York Mets (61-76) 3: LaMonte Wade, Jr. was Sunday’s hero for Houston. His pinch-hit two-run home run gave the Astros a lead they never surrendered. The victory keeps H-town two games ahead of their intra-state rival Rangers.

Texas Rangers (67-70) 7, Milwaukee Brewers (85-52) 4: Texas won Sunday to stay in the mix in the AL West and Wild-Card races. But for Yankees fans, Gary Sánchez was the story. The Kraken clubbed the 200th home run of his career, 138 of which came in pinstripes, in defeat. Sigh. We’ll always have the second half of 2016.

Cleveland Guardians (69-68) 11, Kansas City Royals (62-76) 1: Welcome to the José Ramírez Show. The Cleveland third baseman has been mired in his worst offensive season since 2015. Not Sunday, however. Ramírez homered and drove in four as the 3-4-5 batters for Cleveland combined to plate 10 runs.

Baltimore Orioles (68-69) 8, Athletics (53-84) 5: Gunnar Henderson has had a rough 2026. But on Sunday, he looked every bit the young superstar. Four hits, two of which left the yard, led to three runs scored and five batted in as the Os swept the As.

Toronto Blue Jays (68-70) 7, Seattle Mariners (64-73) 0: For one day at least, Max Scherzer was “Mad Max” again. While tossing seven frames of one-hit shutout ball, Scherzer punched out 10. The last of those moved him ahead of Gaylord Perry for ninth all-time on the career strikeout list.

Well, these were supposed to be the three easiest of the 13 games in 13 days. That doesn’t mean the Cubs can’t recover and have a good stretch of games. It’s just that logistically speaking, you’d have wanted to grab at least two and hopefully three while rested and against the team drifting in the wrong direction as the season winds down. Instead, the Cubs only got one. They waived 2020 First Round pick Ed Howard over the weekend and so what was supposed to be a celebration of Jon Lester and Jody Davis and the 150th Anniversary Cubs stars, it ended up rather bittersweet.

If your name was Pete Crow-Armstrong, you had a crazy good weekend. Sometimes we throw around phrases like coming out party on the big stage. The thing is, PCA announced his presence last year and then started shouting from the rooftops months ago. This crazy stretch is just shy of a half season of games. I don’t know that we are there, but at some point in time, it isn’t a hot stretch but a level up achieved. He led off another game with a homer. The Reds didn’t read his script for the weekend, but for the second time in recent memory he led off the game with a homer and then came back and homered again in the ninth. Unfortunately, the one in this one was a consolation prize and not the walk-off that the last one was.

In all he hit five home runs this weekend. That’s pretty crazy. You are in a subset of a subset with five homers over two games. I well remember players like Ryne Sandberg, Sammy Sosa and Alfonso Soriano slowly drifting from guys who stole more bases than hit homers to the reverse. Naturally, I would then expect that day would come for Pete. I hadn’t considered before this weekend the possibility that he might have more homers than steals this year. He’s now leading 38 homers to 32 steals. It’s far from over, but it is very possible he could end up with more homers than steals already. There are 25 games left in the season. In the 25 games leading up to tonight he stole six bases. I’d actually suggest at this point it is very likely he finishes with more homers.

Aside from Pete, the offense created a bit of traffic (nine hits and a walk) but did not sustain any offense when Pete wasn’t homering. The pitching wasn’t good, particularly Shōta Imanaga. Once again, the Cubs have an issue to deal with. I’m not sure they can keep running him out there. He’d had a really nice stretch of games, but it just isn’t working. Once again I’d rather see Javier Assad or Colin Rea in that spot. That’s not an easy decision to make. He looks healthy, so you’d just be removing him from the rotation. They gave him an extra rest day where they had an off day to work with, but he didn’t really look any better. Maybe you let him pitch again Saturday in Miami. But I’m not sure how you then have him pitch again the following Wednesday. Things now look like they are going to get tight.

This team, man. I think one of my most repeated tropes through the years, though not at any point this year, is Lucy moving the football and Charlie ending up on his back trying to figure out what went wrong. I think I’m now on the ground seeing little stars swirling around my head. Everything felt like it was under control, I started to really believe in this team and then we got rug pulled. Again.

No fun.

Three Positives:

• Pete is a monster. Two more homers. Dare to dream? He’s two homers shy of Kyle Schwarber for the major league lead. Second in runs. Seventh in hits. Second in triples. Tied for sixth in RBI. Fifth in steals. 12th in on base. Second in slugging. Second in OPS. Those are all MLB ranks, not NL. Just an insane season.
• Ian Happ had two singles and a walk. He scored twice. He and Pete scored four of the five runs.
• Caleb threw a perfect inning with three strikeouts. There were very few clean innings for Cub pitching all weekend long.

Game 137, August 30: Reds 7, Cubs 5 (77-60)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Ian Happ (.132). 2-3, BB, 2 R
• Hero: Alex Bregman (.067). 1-4, 2B, R
• Sidekick: Nico Hoerner (.035). 2-3, SF, RBI

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Shōta Imanaga (-.458). 5 IP, 8 H, BB, 6 R, 4 K (L 8-10)
• Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.091). 0-5
• Kid: Tyrone Taylor (-.074). 0-2

Note: Imanaga’s game score preliminarily looks like the 10th worst WPA game score of the year for the Cubs.

WPA Play of the Game: Hector Rodriguez’ three-run homer with two outs in the fourth gave the Reds a one-run lead. (.337)

Cubs Play of the Game: Pete’s lead-off homer. (.103)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 136 Winner: Pete Crow-Armstrong received 75 of 76 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Pete Crow-Armstrong +29
• Alex Bregman +24
• Ben Brown +13.5
• Javier Assad +12
• Carson Kelly +10.5
• Edward Cabrera -12.5
• Jameson Taillon -13
• Nico Hoerner -14
• Dansby Swanson -17
• Caleb Thielbar -18.5

Scoreboard Watching: Braves win (five ahead of Cubs). Dodgers win (five up). Padres lose (five back). Brewers lose (eight up). Phillies win (Cub lead is now tiebreaker only).

Up Next: Those Brewers come to Wrigley field after dropping Sunday’s game against the Rangers in Milwaukee. Game one of a four game set and game four of 13 straight games. Clay Holmes (5-6, 2.26) starts for the Cubs. He’s been exceptional when healthy, including a 1-2, 1.96 mark with the Cubs in four starts.

25-year-old lefty Kyle Harrison (10-3, 2.79) starts for the Brewers. He’s having a terrific season for the Brewers. He threw seven scoreless in a start at Wrigley in May. He’s allowed only two runs in 12 innings of work against the Cubs.

It doesn’t get any easier here.

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Another Monday is here, but the start of the week isn't so bad when there's a packed slate on the diamond. 

Our experts have found plenty of MLB picks with value at Polymarket, highlighted by the Phillies and Brewers winning on Aug. 31.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Probability
Josh Inglis: Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Over 8.5	49%
Jon Metler: Brewers ML	50%
Dustin Saracini: Rays -1.5	43%
Joe Osborne: Phillies ML	53%

Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Over 8.5

Price: 49¢ at Polymarket

There are still some flat 8s on the board this morning for a game projected for nearly 10 total runs, with a fair probability of 56% on the 8.5-run total.

Aaron Nola is in decent form over his last four starts, but he still gives up dingers at one of the highest rates in baseball and ranks among the Bottom 20 MLB starters in barrel rate (Barrel%) since June 1.

On the other side, Brandon Pfaadt is a perfect fade candidate. He's coming off his biggest workload of the season at 103 pitches, and his numbers are starting to regress toward his expected numbers after some unsustainable production.

He's allowed four home runs over his last two starts, with nine runs allowed. Looking at the later innings, both clubs sport bullpen ERAs that rank in the bottom half of the league.

This SP matchup is one where the total should not be 8.0, which is why the market is moving that way.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: NBCS-Philadelphia, Diamondbacks.TV

Jon Metler's expert pick: Brewers moneyline

Price: 50¢ at Polymarket

This is obviously a critical game and series for both teams. The Brewers don't want to give the Cubs any life in the NL Central race, while Chicago is running out of time to close the gap on Milwaukee — which currently holds an eight-game lead. 

This wager comes down to the depth and swing-and-miss ability of the Brewers' bullpen. Both teams are likely to manage this game aggressively, and with Kyle Harrison and Clay Holmes on the mound, I don't expect either starter to work deep. 

That gives Milwaukee an edge, as I trust its bullpen to win the middle-relief innings and bridge the gap to the back end. The Brewers are trading at 50 cents on Polymarket, but I make them closer to a 53-cent favorite, giving us enough of an edge to hit the button on Milwaukee.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Marquee, Brewers.TV

Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Rays -1.5

Price: 43¢ at Polymarket

I just can't quit the Rays — and for good reason. They're the fourth-best cover team in baseball (55.2%) and should have no problem with the Mets today.  

Robert Stock has been as shaky as they come for New York, allowing seven earned runs off 10 hits against the Brewers his last time on the mound.

With an xERA of 4.90 this year, he'll struggle to keep one of the most potent offenses in baseball off the basepaths. A struggling starter with a taxed bullpen behind him usually isn't a recipe for success.

I'll take Tampa to dominate from first pitch, and I'm playing this up to 48 cents at Polymarket.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: SNY, Rays.TV

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Phillies moneyline

Price: 53¢ at Polymarket

Aaron Nola has found his form at the right time of the season. He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts while posting at least seven strikeouts in four straight. 

The same can’t be said for Brandon Pfaadt, who's been knocked around for nine earned runs over his last two outings. Philadelphia also holds clear hitting and bullpen advantages.

Over the past two weeks, the Phillies rank seventh in OPS against righties compared to 21st for Arizona, while the bullpens rank eighth and 23rd in ERA.

The Phillies look like undervalued favorites here and are well positioned to extend their 13-2 tear in pursuit of the top wild-card spot.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: NBCS-Philadelphia, Diamondbacks.TV

More MLB best bets for today

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge is accompanying his teammates on a six-game West Coast road trip this week, fueling speculation he could be nearing a return to the active roster.

The three-time AL MVP hasn't played in three months due to a stress fracture in his rib, but the possibility that he soon could take part in on-field activities would be a major step forward in the recovery process.

“I’m sure it will be ramped up and a lot more involved,” manager Aaron Boone said before Sunday's game against the Boston Red Sox. “Hopefully out there, [he will] start to get on velocity and things like that. He’ll be part of the pregame stuff and just get more entrenched into getting ready to come back.”

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It's a loaded 12-game slate across the big leagues tonight, and I've pinpointed my best MLB moneyline picks for every single contest. 

See it all in my MLB picks for Monday, Aug. 31. 

MLB moneyline picks for Aug. 31

For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Matchup	Pick
Giants vs Braves	40%
Mets vs Rays	62%
Padres vs Reds	58%
Marlins vs Nationals	52%
Mariners vs Red Sox	61%
Tigers vs Twins	56%
Brewers vs Cubs	51%
A's vs Rangers	68%
White Sox vs Astros	46%
Orioles vs Rockies	45%
Yankees vs Angels	55%
Phillies vs Diamondbacks	54%

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of Aug. 31.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for August 31

Giants vs Braves: Giants

Giants win probability: 40%

The Giants are a heavy underdog here at 40%, but they have the better pitching profile. Anthony Molina tossed 4 1/3 scoreless innings in his first outing since being traded, and while he doesn't pitch deep into games, the Giants' pen is in good form. They own a 3.77 xERA over the last week with minimal walks and homers. 

Bryce Elder, meanwhile, owns an FIP over four at home, and the Atlanta Braves starter has posted a 4.03 xERA over the last month. The Giants have a 111 wRC+ in their last seven games, and Elder is the more vulnerable arm here. 

San Fran wins the opener. 

Mets vs Rays: Rays

Rays win probability: 62%

The Rays send Ian Seymour to the mound tonight, and while he's had some home run troubles lately, the left-hander faces a Mets lineup in awful form. They have a 69 wRC+ in the last week and just a .111 ISO. Seymour has a respectable 4.13 FIP at home as well. 

New York counters with Robert Stock. He's posted a 5.03 xERA across his previous five starts with serious command issues. Tampa is coming alive offensively lately with a 99 wRC+ in its previous six contests, and a 109 mark at home this season. 

The Rays have the edge, but if this number moves, resort to the run line. 

Padres vs Reds: Padres

Padres win probability: 58%

Michael King is the far more consistent arm right now. The righty has compiled a 3.10 xERA over his last two starts while giving up just 0.66 HR/9 and limiting opponents to a 22.9% hard-hit rate. 

Brady Singer owns a 5.74 FIP during that same span, allowing 1.54 HR/9 and a troubling 53.8% hard-hit rate. San Diego isn't in great offensive form, but this matchup screams value, and King has been reliable lately. 

Take the Padres, but also lock in the run line if this moves at all. 

Marlins vs Nationals: Marlins

Marlins win probability: 52%

The Marlins have a better pitching setup tonight. Ryan Gusto hasn't allowed a single earned run over his last two starts, and while he doesn't pitch very deep into games, Miami's pen has held its own lately. 

Will Dion takes the hill as an opener for the Nationals, and he has a 6.38 FIP over his previous three outings with home run issues. Washington's relief corps is also struggling with a 6.55 FIP across the last week. 

Miami has the edge. 

Mariners vs Red Sox: Red Sox

Red Sox win probability: 61%

We're looking at two ball clubs in horrendous offensive shape at the moment, but Payton Tolle's recent success is a clear advantage for the Red Sox. He sports a 2.99 FIP in his last two starts, and the Mariners struggle against left-handers, posting an 87 wRC+ this season. 

George Kirby's underlying metrics suggest he's been much better than the numbers suggest, but the righty has still allowed 12 earned runs over his previous three outings. 

Boston's lineup should capitalize. 

Tigers vs Twins: Twins

Twins win probability: 56%

The Tigers have been literally invisible offensively. They've scored only nine runs in their last six contests, posting a 19 wRC+. Taj Bradley is dealing, collecting a 2.44 FIP in his last two outings with minimal home run damage. 

Jackson Jobe has also pitched well, but I simply cannot overlook Detroit's struggles at the dish, and the Twins are swinging it a mile better. 

Brewers vs Cubs: Cubs

Cubs win probability: 51%

The Cubbies get a tough matchup against Kyle Harrison tonight, but they're a force against left-handers, posting a 126 wRC+ this season. Chicago is also raking at the moment with a 138 wRC+ in the last week. 

Clay Holmes has held his own since coming over via trade, posting a 3.08 FIP in his last 12 1/3 frames. The Brewers are swinging it well as well, but they're not as efficient on the road. 

A's vs Rangers: Rangers

Rangers win probability: 68%

The Rangers have a ridiculous 141 wRC+ in their last six games, and it helps Jacob deGrom is on the mound. He's limited opponents to a 29.2% hard-hit rate in his previous two starts while collecting a 2.46 FIP. 

Gage Jump has pitched well recently for the Athletics as well, but I refuse to overlook how Texas is swinging it. They are jumping on everything, and deGrom gives the stability. 

White Sox vs Astros: White Sox

White Sox win probability: 46%

The White Sox get to face the vulnerable Peter Lambert tonight, who has an ERA over 10 recently and a 6.15 xERA in his last two outings.

Chicago is producing lately with a 115 wRC+ in the last week, and while Anthony Kay hasn't been great for them over the last couple of weeks, Houston is not swinging it consistently, and it isn't an efficient lineup against left-handed hurlers. 

Orioles vs Rockies: Rockies

Rockies win probability: 45%

It's not often where I'd back the Rockies, but Kyle Bradish's struggles give them a clear opportunity to take advantage tonight. The righty has a 7.89 xERA over his last two starts with major home run issues, and Colorado is in respectable offensive form. 

Baltimore faces Tanner Gordon, who has a 2.48 xERA recently while limiting the long ball. The Orioles are producing lately at the dish, but Bradish's inability to limit hard contact will hurt them early. 

Yankees vs Angels: Yankees

Yankees win probability: 55%

The Yankees are the team in better offensive form, sitting well above the league average in wRC+ lately. While Walbert Urena is throwing the baseball well, he is not untouchable by any means.

Elmer Rodriguez allowed just three earned runs last week in his first start in the big leagues since June, keeping New York in the game. 

With the Angels struggling to string together runs, the Bronx Bombers are the play. 

Phillies vs Diamondbacks: Phillies

Phillies win probability: 54%

Aaron Nola has really started to come into his own in what has been a poor season to his standards. The right-hander sports a 3.49 xERA over the last month, and he'll face a Diamondbacks offense that has posted just a 72 wRC+ in their previous seven games. 

Arizona's Brandon Pfaadt owns an FIP over six in his last two starts while allowing 2.92 HR/9. The Phillies carry a 107 wRC+ over the last two weeks into tonight's matchup. 

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

In two months as the Angels’ interim general manager, John Mozeliak has reoriented the team’s draft selection priority from “closest to the majors” to “best available,” traded one-third of the major league roster to seed a barren minor league system, fired three coaches and completed a restructuring of the front office.

On Monday, he has scheduled the first meeting of the new leadership group in baseball operations.

We’ll get to that restructuring, but none of the decisions so far resolve two of the most compelling questions in Anaheim: Who is going to be running the Angels next year? And, with this year’s Angels flirting with the first 100-loss season in franchise history, are the Angels going to be much better next year?

To the latter question: Probably not.

Read more:Shaikin: 'One person can begin change.' For the Angels, a long-overdue new hope

“With the starting pitching we have, if we have the ability to be more consistent with our offense, you can definitely squint and see a better club out there,” Mozeliak told me. “But it’s going to take a few pieces to do that.”

Uh oh. That sounds discouragingly like the Angels of the past decade: We’re undermanned, but we want to be competitive, so we’ll sign a few lower-tier free agents and hope we can sneak into the playoffs with an 83-win season. In the real world, the Angels clinched their 11th consecutive losing season before the calendar turned to September.

Mozeliak has said he did not believe that the Angels need to rebuild, that the resources available to a team in the second-largest market in the majors should preclude outright tanking. In theory, that should mean that Mozeliak could trade José Soriano for shortstop Arjun Nimmala, 20, now the Angels’ top prospect, comfortable that owner Arte Moreno could buy a quality free agent to replace Soriano in the starting rotation.

In reality, Mozeliak cannot rightly tell Moreno that the Angels are one or two free agents from winning. And, as Mozeliak said, “It’s not the most robust free-agent class of all time.”

The Angels rank 26th among the 30 major league teams in runs scored, so Mozeliak might well focus on offensive upgrades. Standout names among free agent hitters this fall: Luis Arraez, Gleyber Torres, Jake Bauers ... Taylor Ward, anyone?

With the infusion of talent from the draft and the trade deadline, analyst ratings for the Angels’ minor league system have risen from among the worst in baseball to middle of the pack. It’s a start. If next season is about building, why not just play the kids?

Rookie Denzer Guzman is batting .218, with a .263 on-base percentage and a .341 slugging percentage.

“We’re starting a 22-year-old at third base,” Mozeliak said. “Most 22-year-olds are finishing their senior year in college. He’s competing. There’s a lot of upside in him, but that requires a little patience.”

Of the 12 prospects Mozeliak acquired at the trade deadline, he said he anticipated two — designated hitter/catcher Moises Ballesteros and infielder Nacho Alvarez Jr. — would have a chance to make next year’s team. The Angels also would prefer not to replace Soriano from a blossoming corps of young arms.

“We don’t want to start reaching down to the minors to try to push someone that might not be ready,” Mozeliak said. “I think we’ve seen that here before.”

Read more:Interim GM John Mozeliak hoping to get Angels 'to a very successful place'

As Mozeliak restructures the roster, he is doing the same in the front office. He said he is elevating Matt Swanson – removed as scouting director by former general manager Perry Minasian — to oversee all of the Angels’ scouting operations: amateur, professional and international.

The rest of the leadership core, all from within the organization: Joey Prebynski to oversee player development, including a separate minor league director to be hired; Michael Lord to head research and development; and assistant general manager David Haynes, who will focus on major league personnel. Mozeliak said he will ask those leaders to evaluate their departments and make personnel recommendations.

“I think that exercise is going to happen over the next four weeks,” Mozeliak said.

That timeline could mean that the Angels do not hire a general manager by the end of the season, as the team originally outlined. Mozeliak said he has neither interviewed any candidates nor set up any interviews.

Read more:Shaikin: Angels finally play it smart and go on a franchise-jolting trading spree

Within the industry, former major league pitcher and current St. Louis Cardinals assistant general manager Randy Flores is considered the favorite, with Mozeliak remaining either as a president of baseball operations or a senior adviser.

Mozeliak insists he has not decided what he wants to do beyond the season, and he said his long working relationship with Flores in St. Louis will not preclude a round of interviews.

“I certainly understand that Molly [Jolly, the Angels’ team president] and Arte would want a very exhausting search,” Mozeliak said, “and one that isn’t just two degrees connected to Mo.”

If the Angels get to the end of the season without a general manager, who would make the call on whether to retain manager Kurt Suzuki and the coaches?

Read more:Angels fire pitching coach Mike Maddux and two assistants in staff shakeup

“Based on the timeline today, it would feel like it would be our group now,” Mozeliak said, “but time will tell.”

If the Angels dismiss Suzuki, that would allow a new general manager to hire a new manager. If Mozeliak decides to retain Suzuki, that could set up the awkward prospect of a new general manager inheriting a manager he did not choose, as Minasian did with Joe Maddon. In Minasian’s six seasons as general manager, the Angels had five managers.

The Angels could use a little more time. In 2027, they just might get it, and perhaps no organization could benefit more from it.

If owners lock out major league players for all or part of the season, in a year Mozeliak suggests might be best remembered for the development of minor league players, that might be no great loss for the Angels. Better than 100 losses, certainly.

Get the best, most interesting and strangest stories of the day from the L.A. sports scene and beyond from our newsletter The Sports Report.

This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.

Welcome to Monday A’s fans! Ready for another productive week ahead of us?

The Athletics let go of longtime General Manager David Forst last month, shaking up the front office in the biggest way since the departure of Billy Beane. Since then it’s been Dan Feinstein running the show, but no one expects him to be a serious contender for the final gig.

One name that has emerged is a name many A’s fans should be familiar with. Former Houston Astros GM James Click is on the Athletics’ radar to run their baseball operations, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

That would be an interesting choice to run things. Click is most well-known for his time in Houston, during which he oversaw plenty of success during that great run the Astros had. It all culminated in 2022 with the Astros taking home the World Series, the pinnacle of baseball. Shockingly though the team and Click went their separate ways that offseason, reportedly due to some behind-the-scene conflict with the owner.

Click however has plenty of experience working in a small-market organization. Before getting hired to the Astros’ GM Click had spent the better part of 15 years working in the Tampa Bay organization. It wasn’t long after his arrival that the Rays began turning things around, and the foundation that he and others left is still rewarding the small-market squad with nearly yearly playoff contenders.

Now imagine that kind of GM getting the head start that would come with the A’s gig. The big league team has the bones of a good roster but there are still moves that need to be made. The bullpen and pitching in general need an upgrade while the position-player group could stand to get deeper. Whoever the new GM will be has to address those two problems and with the A’s only in Sacramento for one more year the expectation (hope?) is that the team will finally be able to start spending at least near the middle of the league. Imagine what this group could have done with some decent pitching behind them.

We haven’t yet heard any other names connected to the A’s job and Click certainly won’t be the last. But the team could do worse than targeting an experience former front office executive. Who else would you like to see considered for the job?

We got a series against the Rangers starting tonight, and we’ll of course have coverage for you here. Have a great start to you week everyone.

A’s Coverage:

• Your 2026 Hacktastic A’s
• A’s Swept By Orioles, Fall in Finale 8-5
• Athletics Considering James Click For GM Vacancy
• A’s Lose 5-3 in Frustrating Performance
• Orioles Defeat A’s 4-3 in 10 Innings
• This key change(up) could unlock big success for A’s prospect
• A’s Take Series With Finale Win Over Twins 7-4
• A’s Even Series with 4-2 Victory
• Separating The Wheat From The Chaff Not So Easy
• Amidst The Despair: The Position Player Talent Is There
• What Are The Next Steps For The A’s? ($)
• Where Each A’s Player’s Contract Stands Entering Offseason
• Why Athletics Will Have Scary Offense in 2027
• Red-hot Bolte looking to build on lessons from rookie season
• ‘Kid has been grinding’: Butler’s resurgence, leadership fuel A’s
• Underdog Athletics prospect Cole Conn playing like a big dog for Aviators
• Behind the Plate, the A’s Face an Offseason Reckoning
• Why The New GM Needs To “Clean House”
• A Seemingly Rock Bottomless Glass
• MLB Trade Grades: A’s Have Quiet Trade Deadline
• This key change(up) could unlock big success for A’s prospect
• Fustercluck 2026: The Real Reasons For A Disappointing Season

MLB News and Interest:

• Marte set to return to D-backs on Monday
• Mad Max makes more history, strikes out 10 to pass Perry for 9th all-time
• Mitch Garver Exercises Assignment Clause In Yankees Contract
• Yankees rookie SS George Lombard Jr. avoids knee damage
• Xavier Edwards Leaves Game Due To Possible Thumb Sprain
• Mariners put Emerson Hancock on IL with strained left adductor
• Mariners To Promote Lazaro Montes
• Final out? Actually, an OF-assisted game-tying homer into the buffet!
• Today in Baseball History

Best of X:

Burress just continues to smash the ball:

Baseball’s in this kid’s blood:

Always loved CBass:

Minor moves down on the farm:

Dodgers catcher Will Smith completed his minor league rehab assignment on Sunday night, catching six innings for Triple-A Oklahoma City and collected one single in three at-bats.

In all, Smith played five games for the Comets last week — four starts and 25 innings behind the plate, and once as designated hitter. He had four hits in 16 at-bats with a home run and two doubles, hitting .250/.250/.563. It’s expected that Smith will be activated off the 60-day injured list by the Dodgers on Tuesday, after missing nearly four full months with neck inflammation.

Blake Treinen also checked off what is usually the final box for rehabbing relievers, pitching in parts of multiple innings. The right-hander retired all four batters he faced with a popout and three groundouts, after pitching on back-to-back days on Wednesday and Thursday.

Treinen in seven rehab games — one with Ontario, six with Oklahoma City — pitched 6 1/3 scoreless frames with eight strikeouts, two walks, and two hit batters. Treinen last pitched for the Dodgers on June 19, and has been sidelined since with elbow inflammation. Like Smith, Treinen is on the 60-day IL and will require a corresponding move to make room on the 40-man roster.

Player of the day

Joendry Vargas, playing second base for Ontario, had three hits, stole a base, and drove in three runs. The final RBI came on an epic 16-pitch walk in the ninth inning with the bases loaded, adding an insurance run in the Tower Buzzers’ winning rally on the road to clinch a postseason berth.

Triple-A Oklahoma City

Matt Gorski drove in all the runs for the Comets to beat the El Paso Chihuahuas (Padres). Trailing 1-0, Gorski singled home the tying run in the seventh inning for Oklahoma City, then singled home the walk-off game-winning in the ninth.

Bobby Miller pitched a perfect top of the ninth inning for the win.

Double-A Tulsa

The Drillers were on the wrong end of a high-scoring affair, falling 13-10 to the Midland RockHounds (A’s).

Jake Gelof homered, his third in five games, and 29th of the season.

Josue De Paula had two hits, including a double.

Luke Fox was activated after missing a week and a half on the injured list, but had a disaster out an outing, walking four and allowing three singles and three runs while recording only two outs. It was just the seventh Tulsa start of the season for Fox, who missed three and a half months on the injured list with a hamstring strain, then got re-injured in the first inning of his second start back, 16 days prior to Sunday.

High-A Great Lakes

Four runs allowed in the first inning was too large a deficit for the Loons to overcome in a loss to the Lansing Lugnuts (A’s).

Charles Davalan and Mairo Martinus each homered and singled, driving in two runs.

Eduardo Quintero also had two hits.

Class-A Ontario

The Tower Buzzers rallied for four runs in the ninth inning to beat the Stockton Ports (A’s), and clinch a berth in the California League playoffs.

Right fielder Javier Herrera had two singles, a walk, a stolen base, two runs scored, and two driven in.

Sunday scores

• Oklahoma City 2, El Paso 1
• Midland 13, Tulsa 10
• Lansing 9, Great Lakes 5
• Ontario 10, Sotckton 7

The week ahead

• Oklahoma City at Round Rock (Rangers)
• Tulsa vs. Wichita (Twins)
• Great Lakes at Lake County (Guardians)
• Ontario vs. Rancho Cucamonga (Angels)

Recaps

Uh… For the first time in a long while, this was a Sunday in the regular season without a scheduled Diamondbacks game. Still, there was action of relevance, in particular the Padres coughing up another late lead in Tampa, on the way to getting swept at the hands of the Rays. However, the Phillies won, and moved into a tie for the first wild-card spot with the Cubs, who lost. Here’s where we stand, ahead of The Most Important Series of the Season™ against Philadelphia, which gets under way at Chase Field tonight.

Team news

[Arizona Sports] Ketel Marte to address teammates at Chase Field ahead of Phillies series – Ketel Marte plans to address his Arizona Diamondbacks teammates Monday afternoon when he arrives at Chase Field ahead of his expected return to the ballclub, Arizona Sports’ John Gambadoro reports. The three-time All-Star is eligible to come off the injured list on Monday ahead of a critical three-game home series against the Philadelphia Phillies. Marte was placed on the 10-day injured list on Aug. 20 due to left knee inflammation. The move came after Marte did not show up to Fenway Park for the D-backs’ game against the Boston Red Sox on Aug. 17 and did not tell Lovullo or the team he would be absent.

[SI] D-backs Face Biggest Playoff Implications Yet in Series vs Phillies – The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Philadelphia Phillies at Chase Field starting Monday, August 31 for a critical three-game series with massive National League Wild card implications. While it’s impossble for the D-backs to catch the Phillies in this series alone, it’s crucial that they win the series if they are to have any hope of catching them. Arizona currently leads the season series two games to one.

This is a few days old, but still makes for interesting reading. And your word of the day is “weenus”…

[Fangraphs] Scouting Notes on the Rehabbing Cubs and Diamondbacks Pitchers – I asked Gallen about something very specific and weird that I’ve been interested in for a while — his elbow skin. When I first shot Gallen on high-speed video, his weenus (the skin at the tip of one’s elbow) was flapping all over the place. “You’re the first person to ask me this on the record, I think,” he said. “I’ve had people send me a message on social media or whatever, but yes I have seen it. I have no idea why. I would like to think I’ve got a lot of skin and have a fast arm, that’s what I tell myself. But yeah I have no idea. I’ve been tagged in a handful of pictures with my weenus, essentially, and I guess I have a lot.”

And, elsewhere…

[ESPN] Curaçao routs Nevada to win Little League World Series title – For the past two weeks, Curaçao Little Leaguers were focused and disciplined about what they ate, when they slept and how they practiced for youth baseball’s biggest tournament. Now, the champs can relax and enjoy a treat or two.Juriënsly De Windt and Shardijon De Lanoi each drove in three runs, and Curaçao won its second Little League World Series title, beating Nevada 11-2 in Sunday’s championship game. “Every kid [will eat] McDonald’s,” Curaçao coach Railison Gijsbertha said, smiling alongside three beaming players who couldn’t wait to take the trophy home to their tiny island nation in the southern Caribbean Sea for the first time in 22 years.

[MLB.COM] 250 for 250: Top 10 bloopers – 1. Canseco’s header leads to homer, May 26, 1993. You’ve seen it a million times. In 1993, Cleveland’s Carlos Martinez drove a ball to right field that Jose Canseco tracked toward the wall at old Cleveland Municipal Stadium. He reached up to make the catch, but then the ball inexplicably bounced off the top of his head and over the wall for a homer. Everyone had a laugh in the moment, and the chuckles have continued for more than three decades.

Mutiny (2026)

• Rating: Sea-plus
• Dir: Jean-François Richet
• Star: Jason Statham, Annabelle Wallis, Roland Møller, Adrian Lester

I think the above is recycling a similar joke I made on a previous Jason Statham movie. However, that’s fine, because Jason is basically recycling his own previous movies too. To be clear, I’ve no problem with this. You know what you’re going to get, and I am comfortable with the script being created through a game of Mad Libs: Jason Statham Edition. A former ______ goes up against ______, in order to save _______. In this case, the blanks can be filled in with British cop, pirates, and human trafficking victims respectively. Didn’t we have the last one, fairly recently? Oh, yeah: A Working Man.

Read more

It is no secret that the Nationals badly need pitching. Of course, the bullpen is the biggest area of need, but the Nats just need more quality pitching in general. Part of the reason the bullpen is so bad is due to being overworked because of the lack of quality starting pitching. I wanted to look towards the future and break down five of the Nats best pitching prospects.

All five of these pitching prospects totally living up to the hype is unlikely and the Nats still need to make external additions. However, Jarlin Susana, Travis Sykora, Miguel Sime Jr., Landon Harmon and Ben Grable all have a chance to be big parts of the Nats pitching staff for years to come. I wanted to give fans a sneak peak of what is hopefully a brighter future on the mound.

Jarlin Susana probably has the highest ceiling of the five, so let’s talk about him first. The Nats acquired him all the way back in 2022 as a smaller piece of the Juan Soto trade. At the time, he was a raw 18 year old with an insanely powerful arm. Over the years, he has steadily developed and is now a consensus top 100 prospect.

After undergoing Lat surgery late last year, Susana missed most of this year but he is back now. He is still on a strict pitch count, but his staff looks sharper than ever. Susana averages around 100 MPH on his heater and pairs the fastball with a slider which might be even nastier. In his first AA outing of the season, he overwhelmed the competition with his electric stuff.

While Susana has definite relief risk, he still has a solid chance of starting. We saw why teams don’t give up on flamethrowers sticking in the rotation with Jacob Misiorowski. For a while he seemed to be destined for the bullpen. However, the Brewers stayed patient and now he looks set to win the Cy Young. Susana needs to stay healthy and throw more strikes, but his stuff is some of the best in all of baseball.

Even with shaky strike-throwing, Susana has a high floor as an electric reliever. Given how this year has gone for the Nats, it would be tough to complain if Susana “fails” as a starter and becomes a lockdown closer. If he did not know already, I would imagine that Paul Toboni has realized the value a closer has. The enormous Susana will likely play a role for the Nats next season. Now the question is what will that role be.

Speaking of giant right handers with triple digit velocity, a nasty slider and shaky command, the pitching I want to talk about is Miguel Sime. The Nats selected Sime Jr. in the 4th round of last year’s draft, and so far he looks like a hit. The 19 year old has been a strikeout machine in the lower minors.

Sime’s scouting report reads a lot like a younger Jarlin Susana. His fastball averages 99 MPH and his slider absolutely annihilates hitters. In 72.1 innings across two levels, Sime has struck out 130 batters and allowed just 38 hits. He is striking out over 40% of hitters while allowing a batting average against of .151. 

There is a catch though, and that is his control. Sime has walked 64 batters in those 72.1 innings. At 20.3%, his walk rate is simply too high. However, as a young pitcher, he still has plenty of time to figure out his control. He also does not exactly need to be Greg Maddux to have success with his stuff. If Sime’s walk rate is around 12%, he can be a very good starter. Even at 15%, he could be a nasty reliever.

However, 20% is just too high. As he rises through the ranks, hitters will be less overwhelmed by his stuff and he will have to execute more. That means we should not expect him in the big leagues anytime soon. It could be a slow burn, but Sime still has sky high potential. He took a big leap forward with his breaking stuff this year. Hopefully next season he can fine tune that command.

Drafted a round before Sime, Landon Harmon has a different sort of profile. Harmon has good stuff, with a mid-90’s heater with a lot of cut and a couple different breaking ball shapes. However, it is not quite in the same tier as Sime. To make up for this though, he has stronger command and has a solid feel to pitch.

Harmon missed some time with an oblique issue, but he has been very good when healthy. In 38 innings, Harmon has a 1.42 ERA with 36 strikeouts and a .154 batting average against. Having spent the season in Low-A, he is still a ways away from the big leagues, but I think he will start moving fairly quickly next season.

With less than a strikeout per inning in Low-A and middling whiff rates, he is not blowing hitters away. However, he has done an excellent job at inducing weak contact. For the season, he has a ground ball rate around 60%. His fastball acts like a cutter and it is very hard to square up. You see a lot of broken bats when Harmon is on the mound.

To take that next step though, I would like to see some more swing and miss. He has an impressive feel for spin and flashes some nasty breaking balls. Next season I think we will see him start to generate more whiffs. Do not be surprised if Sime and Harmon are teaming up in the Double-A rotation by the end of next year.

Before Sime and Harmon, the Nats hot shot high school pitching prospect was Travis Sykora. Honestly, he combined the best of both pitchers. Sykora generated whiffs like Sime while not walking as many guys. Before going down with Tommy John Surgery in 2025, Sykora tore through the lower minors like butter during the ‘24 and ‘25 seasons.

I was really excited to see him in AA because it looked like it was going to be his first real test. However, he went down in July of last year and we have not seen him since. He has posted videos throwing off the mound, so he is clearly progressing. There could be a chance we could see him in the Arizona Fall League, but that is far from a given.

With a unique combination of nasty stuff, deception and a feel for pitching, Sykora was one of the best pitching prospects in baseball before he went down. His fastball sits in the mid to upper 90’s and he has two nasty secondary pitches to go with it. Sykora’s slider and splitter are both filthy.

In the lower minors, he did rely a lot on chase which will be something to monitor. At some point, I think he will have to adjust and throw more pitches in the zone. However, he seems like a smart pitcher that will figure this out. His pitch mix and funk remind me of Trey Yesavage, who is one of the better young pitchers in baseball.

Sykora should start next season in AA. There is a chance he debuts at the end of next year, but I think a 2028 debut is more likely. Sykora has the opportunity to be a true top of the rotation arm. He might have to make some adjustments to get there but he has the stuff and mentality to get it done.

While Ben Grable might not technically be a top 5 Nats pitching prospect, I wanted to include a pure reliever given how the season has gone. Arguably the main prize of the Luis Garcia Jr. return, Grable has closer upside thanks to his outlier fastball. His fastball/slider combination has been generating empty swings all season long.

The Yankees drafted Grable in the 11th round of the 2025 draft, and he was a revelation in his first year of pro ball. He started the season in High-A, but has now reached AAA following a recent promotion to Rochester. At this rate, he could be part of the Nats bullpen very soon.

When you look at Grable’s numbers, it is hardly a surprise that he keeps getting promoted. For the year, Grable has a 2.15 ERA with 72 strikeouts in 46 innings across 41 appearances. His control has not been an issue either, with just 16 walks.

The fastball is Grable’s bread and butter. He throws it around 70% of the time. The 96 MPH heater has a ton of rise, frequently generating 20 inches of IVB. His slider is more of an average pitch, but gets a ton of whiffs anyway due to how good his fastball is.

One thing I am monitoring is how Grable’s fastball will play in AAA and the MLB. Once you get above AA, there is a new ball. Pitchers tend to lose some IVB with that new ball. In his first two outings, Grable has been getting 18 inches of IVB on the heater instead of 20+. As he adjusts to the ball, I think that will improve and the pitch is still effective. However, it does lose some of what makes it special.

Even if the heater is more in the 18-20 inch range instead of 20-22, it can still be a great offering. That pitch should give him a clear path to being an effective big league reliever. We will see if he can be a closer, but I think Grable is a safe bet to be a high leverage arm thanks to his fastball.

Outside of Cade Cavalli, there is a real lack of fire power in this Nats pitching staff. However, the guys we have just talked about will change that down the road. We cannot just rely on these prospects, but they can be part of the answer. If these five can be paired with Cavalli and a couple big name outside additions, the Nats can have a good pitching staff to complement their already strong offense. Right now, the Nats pitching staff is not very talented, but that is going to change.