If we are being honest with ourselves, and if the Pittsburgh Penguins are being honest with themselves, forward Anthony Mantha was never supposed to be on the team at this point in the 2025-26 season. The plan with him was pretty obvious from the start. At least it seemed to be obvious.
- This was anticipated to be more of a rebuilding year for the Penguins.
- Mantha looked like he was going to be this year’s version of Anthony Beauvillier, a reclamation project veteran signed to a cheap one-year contract.
- The Penguins would then give him top-six ice-time, let him score some goals and pad some stats and ultimately rebuild his value.
- Trade him at the NHL Trade Deadline for a second-round pick to add to the pile of draft picks they have been accumulating.
That is what we all expected, right? That has to be what the Penguins expected.
But then a bunch of things started happening that maybe even the Penguins themselves did not fully anticipate.
Not only did the team start winning a lot of hockey games and play itself into playoff contention, but Mantha also ended up playing a major part in that success.
With his assist on Thursday he has already set a new career high in points. His next goal will match his career high (25) and there is a very good possibility that he ends up scoring 30 goals before this season is finished. He has been the best value free agent signing in the NHL this season. Given the way he has played, as well as the way the Penguins have played their way into contention, there is no way the Penguins were going to take that away from the locker room unless they were getting something significant back in return to help this season.
Obviously, that did not happen.
That now leaves the Penguins in a situation where Mantha is a pending unrestricted free agent after this season.
What do you do with him?
There is still a lot of hockey to be played between now and July, but given the way Mantha is playing, and with the way he has stepped up recently with some top players out of the lineup, it is a discussion worth having.
Do you shake his hand, thank him for his services, and wish him well in his next step?
Or do you do what would have been unimaginable at the start of this season and try to re-sign him and keep him?
As good as he has been, there is a definite risk with the latter approach.
While Mantha has been sneakily productive throughout his career, averaging around 24 goals and 50 points per 82 games, there is one big caveat that comes with it. It is the classic, “when healthy” line.
Health has been a big problem for Mantha throughout his career with pretty much every stop prior to Pittsburgh. This is quite honestly one of the first times he has really had an opportunity to play a regular role over the course of a full season (knock on wood) and that has to be taken into account. As does the fact he is going to be 32 years old.
There is also the fact he might actually be one of the top free agents available, coming off a career year, in a rising salary cap environment.
Somebody is going to pay him.
If you look at the potential unrestricted free agents going into this summer, the only player on the list that has more goals than Mantha is Buffalo Sabres forward Alex Tuch with 28. Alex Ovechkin has the same number of goals, but his options are returning to the Washington Capitals, returning to Russia, or retiring. I can not imagine he is going to be a serious option for anybody else.
After those guys, no other pending free UFA has scored more than 19 goals this season.
Salary cap space is not an issue for the Penguins. They are going to have to spend money on somebody, and given the current state of the open market I am not sure there is going to be a better player that comes in at a comparable price. They are also going to need at least one or two top-nine wingers. While you would like to see Rutger McGroarty or Ville Koivunen get more permanent roles, neither player is a lock to become an NHL regular. And even if they do next season, there would still be a potential need for another top-nine winger on the roster.
The obvious alternative — and perhaps the more likely path for the Penguins to follow — is the trade route. With their draft-pick capital, as well as an improved prospect pool, they could fill some of their needs via trade, and perhaps their biggest need (another young impact scorer).
I would not be opposed to another short-term deal (one or two years), even if it came with a high price tag. I would not go beyond that. But I am not sure a short-term gets it done given what the free agent market looks like and how it only takes one team to lose their minds and do something outrageous
The most likely path here is the one where the Penguins shake his hand, thank him for his services, and let another team take the risk with a long-term contract extension.
What would you do if you were Kyle Dubas? Try to sign him? And at what price and for how many years? Or let him walk?