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It’s been a good season for Aaron Nola. Especially in the second half, he’s looked solid and reliable; a comforting return to form, like a rerun of a favorite TV show. There is one thing that’s still plagued him, though, a thorn that he can’t quite pull out of his paw: the homers. The home run has seemed like an almost ubiquitous part of the Nola start. His 34 gopher balls surrendered are the most league-wide, tied with Jeffrey Springs, and one ahead of Shota Imanaga. The homer problem (the downtowner dilemma, the tater trouble, the four-bagger fretting), has gone on for far too long to be dismissed as happenstance. It is, unfortunately, as real as the Phanatic’s green fur. Case in point: I drafted this article on Friday afternoon, just prior to Nola’s start, hoping I wouldn’t have to rewrite any of it; it is now Saturday evening and I am rewriting it to account for the two homers he surrendered. That being said, what if he’s been at least a little unlucky?

Nola has allowed 34 homers this season, but per Statcast’s numbers, his expected number of homers allowed is 27.3 (that’s with the adjusted model, which accounts for environmental variables, and which we’ll use elsewhere in this article; it’s 30.4 if you’re accounting for trajectory only). That puts him at 6.7 homers above expected in 2026, second-most league-wide. Even if his actual homer total was identical to the expected, he’d still be one of the most-homer prone pitchers in baseball this season; he’d just rank fourth instead of first. Still, that might suggest that the homer problem isn’t quite as bad as it’s seemed in 2026.

Then again, if you look at the one pitcher who has a a greater gap between his actual homers surrendered and expected homers surrendered, it’s Springs, who’s allowed the same number of actual homers as Nola. And the pitcher who’s got the third-biggest gap in that regard is Imanaga. That stands to reason: the more prone you are to surrendering the sort of long ball that can become a homer, the more prone you’ll be to surrendering the sort of borderline ball that might become a homer and might not become one, with the vagaries of ballpark design and environment determining its fate. So while we can say that Nola’s been a little unlucky, homer-wise, I don’t think it’d be quite right to suggest that the gap between his expected and actual homer stats is purely or even primarily the result of misfortune. He really does have a genuine homer issue.

(It’s perhaps worth noting here that of all the pitchers who have allowed at least 20 dingers this season, Nola has the lowest percentage, 2o.6, of what Statcast refers to as No Doubters— homers that would be homers no matter which ballpark they’re born in. Compare to Imanaga’s 29.4%, or Springs’ 42.4%. I’m not convinced that it’s a terribly meaningful fact, but I do find it curious).

That being said, there is one way in which Nola is arguably unlucky: he plays half his games at the third homer-happiest park in baseball, per Park Factors, and the one most prone to allowing homers to the lefties who already have the platoon advantage over him. It’s not just the dimensions of CBP, either: per Statcast, Citizens Bank Park ranks ninth among MLB ballparks for extra distance added to balls by the effects of the weather, environment, etc.

I say this is arguably unlucky because this wasn’t really luck; he chose to resign with the team that calls Citizens Bank Park home. Then again, I suppose you could argue that luck was involved given that he had no say in where he was drafted, which eventually set up the sequence of events that led to him choosing to resign with the incumbent club. But that’s getting awfully philosophical. Speaking of philosophical, let’s imagine some hypotheticals.

Imagine an alternate world in which Nola pitches every one of his starts in Boston (perhaps a dystopian future in which only Boston remains, perhaps a world in which some sort of New England envy results in every ballclub directly copying the dimensions and environment of famed Fenway, it doesn’t matter). That hypothetical Boston Nola would have allowed only 15 homers this year. Now imagine if only Philadelphia existed. Most people, we can all agree, would be happier in such a world. But Aaron Nola would not: he’d have allowed 35 homers in this alternate All-Philly 2026, one more than he actually has. And that is the only park that would produce such an effect: place all his starts in any other ballpark, and he allows fewer gopher balls than the real Nola has. Citizens Bank Park is a wonderful place for everyone, except for Braves fans, Mets fans, and homer-prone pitchers.

As an example: take this homer Jake Burger hit against Nola in his first start of the season:

That’s obviously an unlucky break for Nola: just a few inches to the left and it would be foul, with no harm done other than some induced heartburn. But it’s even more unlucky than it appears: if it had been hit in any other ballpark in baseball, it wouldn’t have been a home run (although that’s by Statcast’s environment-adjusted model; per the trajectory-only model it would’ve been a dinger in 17 of 30 parks).

And this one, hit by Francisco Alvarez back in July, was even more unlucky for Nola.

It barely cleared the wall at CBP, and it wouldn’t have been gone at any other park. Even if we use the trajectory-only model, it still would’ve been gone in only two other parks.

But the most unlucky homer of all was probably this one, hit by Luke Keaschall at the Field of Dreams game:

If that game was played at any standard big league ballpark, that ball stays in the yard rather than finding a happy home in the corn.

Any pitcher in the league, of course, has similar stories, of homers that would’ve ended as harmless fly balls if the location had been different, or if it had been a few degrees cooler, or if the wind hadn’t been blowing in quite that direction. Betteridge’s Law of Headlines applies here: Nola’s homer problem isn’t the result of bad luck. Misfortune may have resulted in it looking slightly worse than it really is, but the underlying problem is real. But so is Nola’s return to form this season, and what he’s done for the 2026 Phils. We ought to feel lucky to have him.

We all know that Cade Cavalli is a top of the rotation arm who offers Nats fans a glimpse of what quality pitching looks like. However, there is another arm that is emerging behind him that is doing that as well. Andrew Alvarez is not Cade Cavalli, but he has been rock solid and is only getting better as the season goes along.

Yesterday, Alvarez had the best start of his career and made a statement that he should be in the rotation next year. The 27 year old lefty threw 7 scoreless innings, allowing 1 hit while striking out 8 and walking 4. It was the first time he completed 7 innings in his MLB career and a continuation of the great work he has done lately.

Honestly, we saw everything that makes Alvarez an effective pitcher. Against an all right-handed lineup, Alvarez’s curveball was superb. He got 10 whiffs on 20 swings with his curve and when batters did make contact, it was not very hard. The curveball was the signature piece of his arsenal, but showed his fastball enough to keep hitters honest.

There were times where he was nibbling too much early in the game. In fact, all four of his walks came in the first two innings. However, the southpaw settled in and started dominating the Halos lineup. He is proving that he belongs in the rotation moving forward.

Alvarez was not a hyped prospect at all, which makes his success even more remarkable. Across 102 innings this season, Alvarez has a 3.35 ERA with 99 strikeouts. He has also racked up 2.3 fWAR and 2.4 bWAR. Both of those numbers are actually better than Jake Bennett, who the Nats infamously traded away last offseason. Alvarez has not gotten the hype that Bennett has but he has arguably been more effective.

Like Cavalli, we are also seeing Alvarez improve down the stretch. Since the start of August, Alvarez has a 2.44 ERA in 44.1 innings across 8 starts. For me, the most encouraging part is the innings total. In this stretch, he is averaging over 5.5 innings per start. A big concern with Alvarez is that he does not go deep into games, but he is answering those questions.

Moving forward, what should we expect from Alvarez? Well, the advanced stats are somewhat split on the lefty. His FIP is actually lower than his ERA at 3.27. However, his xERA of 4.16 is slightly less encouraging. His xFIP sits somewhere in the middle at 3.80. 

If Alvarez can settle in as a back of the rotation arm who has an ERA somewhere in the high 3’s, that would be a big organizational win. With the quality of his breaking balls, there is certainly a path to doing that.

The walks are the one thing I am concerned about though. Alvarez really emphasizes avoiding the middle of the plate. However, that can lead to nibbling. His 11% walk rate is proof of that. While this approach does lead to walks, it does help him keep the ball in the yard. Alvarez has allowed just 5 homers in 102 innings, which is very low.

We will have to see if he can sustain this level of home run avoidance over a larger sample, but he does things that suggest he can somewhat maintain this. His ground ball rate of 49.3% is in the 83rd percentile and his 5.4% barrel rate allowed is in the 84th percentile. Keeping the ball on the ground and off the barrel leads to fewer homers.

With how he has pitched, I think Andrew Alvarez has locked up a rotation spot. We still have to see if he can keep it long term, but he will be one of the team’s 5 best options next year. He is just too crafty and too effective.

Guys like Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker make me slightly hesitant to go all-in on Alvarez, but you have to love what you are seeing. To be fair to Alvarez, Irvin and Parker never had seasons quite like this either. 

I do not think Alvarez has the fastball quality to be in the front 3 of a rotation. However, you can do a lot worse than him in the back of a rotation. His breaking balls are so sharp and he keeps the ball in the yard. He can give you 5 solid innings on a consistent basis, and lately he is showing that he can go further than that as well.

It has not been a pretty year for Nats pitching, but we have found a couple answers in the rotation. Cade Cavalli looks like a top of the rotation starter and Andrew Alvarez is now emerging as a number 4. I have always had some lingering doubts about Alvarez, but he just keeps proving me wrong. 

Mike Rizzo, the man who built the Washington Nationals into a power and led them to the 2019 World Series championship, recently had a formal interview with the Athletics for their vacant GM position.

The Athletics, who have also interviewed assistant GM Billy Owens, and have identified James Click, vice president of baseball strategy with the Toronto Blue Jays as a strong candidate, would like to make their hire before the season’s conclusion.

Rizzo, who lives in West Palm Beach, Fla., also has strong interest in the Houston Astros’ GM vacancy, but the Astros aren’t expected to begin their interview process until after their season concludes.

The Athletics also made wholesale firings on their minor-league development staff.

There have been rumblings in the industry about manager Mark Kotsay’s future, but he has a contract through 2028 and is considered safe.

The club is relocating to Las Vegas for the 2028 season, currently playing the second of three years in a minor-league ballpark in West Sacramento, California.

The Mariners traded for one of the league’s streakiest player, and then he took a big slump.

I wrote about Randy Arozarena a few months ago. I’d often referred to him as a streaky hitter and wanted to know how much to hedge against his red-hot start to 2026. I crunched some numbers and found out Randy isn’t actually that streaky. Yes, sometimes he gets super hot, but he rarely gets that cold, because Randy is simply one of the 10 best hitters ever to play in Seattle. And hey, what do you know, Randy never slumped in 2026, and delivered his best-ever season.

While doing that analysis, I came across some very streaky batters. The streakiest just so happened to be Taylor Ward. I didn’t think anything of it at the time because Ward was hardly relevant in Seattle (beyond his modest performance in Anaheim for years). That’s obviously changed. Ward joined the Mariners as one of the best batters moved at the trade deadline, and has since posted a 20 wRC+ and -0.8 fWAR. He’s behind only Rob Refsnyder, Leody Tavares, and Kolten Wong as the worst Mariners of the decade by WAR.

The method I used to define streakiness back then was fairly simple. I found every batter’s rolling wOBA over 100 plate appearances dating back to 2021, then found the standard deviation (and coefficient of variation) of those rolls. Basically, this identified batters with the largest changes in performance over this stretch.

I figured I’d try something more nuanced this time around using a process known as permutation sampling. I shuffled each batter’s plate appearances into a random order, found the rolling wOBA from that order, and took the standard deviation of that roll. I did this 200 times for each batter. I then compared the average of the 200 samples to the batter’s actual, chronological sample. Batters whose actual performance goes up and down more than a random sample could thus be considered streaky.

Here I found Ward to be the fifth streakiest player overall since 2021. The names in front of him are Michael Harris II, Aaron Judge, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and CJ Abrams; the names behind him are Justin Turner, Steven Kwan, Trea Turner, Josh Rojas, and Mookie Betts. It seems being streaky (by this measure) isn’t inherently good or bad, as there’s a nice mix of Hall of Famers, All-Stars, fringe Major Leaguers, and even TOOMGIS himself.

Still, we can say that Ward has been streakier than most batters this decade. The Mariners just so happened to pull the trigger on acquiring him right before he experienced his one of his annual plummets: 

Ward was a slugger for a long time. He hit 36 homers in 2025 for Anaheim, but his approach wasn’t very good. He posted a mere 118 wRC+ despite all the power. Ward joined the Orioles in 2026 and made drastic changes to that approach. He started drawing walks (17.2% through July), but that came at the expense of power (seven home runs). He wound up with a nearly identical 117 wRC+ in Baltimore.

Then he was traded to the Mariners. Ward hasn’t changed too much from Baltimore to Seattle. He just hasn’t been as good at whatever it is he’s trying to do. He’s now swinging out of the zone quite a bit more, leading to fewer walks and worse contact. That seems to hold up, as Ward’s walk rate has dropped back to career norms, but the power he sacrificed for those walks hasn’t returned.

I don’t know that I have a ton else here. I just thought this was neat. I think the point is this isn’t that weird a stretch for Ward, even if it’s a bit extreme. Were the Mariners wrong to make the deal? Eh, I don’t know. I mean, obviously it’s been a tremendous failure. But Ward’s streakiness could have gone in the other direction, too. There’s some timeline where he came to Seattle and hit like a top five batter in the majors for two months — he’s done that several times before. It’s also hard to lose a deal when the price is a few middling relievers. Still, the Mariners technically would have been better off giving up those relievers for Piggy Ward, an Orioles right fielder who’s been dead for more than 100 years.

Good morning, folks…

The Texas Rangers beat the Arizona Diamondbacks last night by a score of 6-2.

Josh Jung and Nathan Eovaldi were each activated prior to the game.

Joc Pederson and Nicky Lopez are each being evaluated after leaving last night’s game due to a hit by pitch and hamstring issue, respectively.

X-Rays on Pederson’s hand were negative.

Evan Grant writes that Evan Carter’s offensive struggles resulted in him sitting yesterday.

David Laurila has his Sunday Notes column up at Fangraphs.

Saturday saw two strong outings by the starting pitchers in the Atlanta Braves organization. Both Cedric De Grandpre and Luke Sinnard threw excellent outings, though both came up short as the offense wasn’t able to support either. Combined Sinnard and Cedric struck out 15 in nine and a third innings of work.

Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp 2, Gwinnett Stripers 0

Box Score

Statcast

• David McCabe, 1B:2-4, 2B, .309/.354/.559
• Cedric De Grandpre, SP: 5 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 8 K, 4.03 ERA
• Luis Vargas, RP: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 1 K, 4.15 ERA

A pitchers duel took place on Saturday night in the form of a 2-0 game. Cedric De Grandpre pitched five exceptional innings, with just two mistakes coming via a pair of solo homers. In total he allowed those two runs on four hits and a walk with eight strikeouts and 13 whiffs. After a scoreless inning from Ricky Vanasco, Luis Vargas went two scoreless innings to finish the game off. In total Gwinnett pitchers allowed two runs on four hits and four walks with 10 strikeouts.

The pitchers duel went both ways as the Stripers were shut out and held to four hits and one walk. David McCabe, who singled and doubled, had half of the hits for the team, while Luke Williams and Chuckie Robinson had the other two Stripers singles. The lone walk came by Jordan Groshans. Jim Jarvis and Lizandro Espinoza were both hitless on the day.

Montgomery Biscuits 5, Columbus Clingstones 4

Box Score

• John Gil, 2B: 1-5, RBI, .317/.389/.432
• Eric Hartman, LF: 1-5, RBI, .188/.320/.273
• Luke Sinnard, SP: 4.1 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 0 BB, 7 K, 4.15 ERA

Luke Sinnard had a very strong outing on Saturday, going four and a third and allowing four runs on eight hits and no walks. He did strike out seven and whiff 15 as well. He had seven strikeouts on just 35 pitches through three scoreless innings before allowing two runs apiece in the fourth and then again in the fifth before recording just one out there. In total he threw 59 pitches and had those 15 whiffs. Ian Mejia went the next two and two thirds scoreless, followed by two more from Owen Hackman, before Isaac Gallegos allowed the final Montgomery run in his one third of an inning.

The Columbus offense didn’t manage much in this game, though a two-run homer by Carson Taylor helped to get this game into extra innings. Still the team managed just six hits, half by the bottom of the order with Luke Waddell picking up a pair of singles. Eric Hartman and John Gil each went one for five with a run batted in, while Alex Lodise also went one for five and stole a base.

The State of Wisconsin sports will be going for a rare weekend sweep, and it’ll begin with the Brewers taking on the Reds. With the Brewers soundly taking care of games one and two, and the Badger football team winning their first of the season, the Brewers and Packers will be up next to finish the weekend strong.

Most importantly, the Crew eyes their longest winning streak of the 2026 season, as they currently sit at five games in a row. They’ll have to face the Reds ace, however, Chase Burns. He’ll be facing this Brewers offense for just the third time in his career and the second time this season. His last time against the Brewers was back on July 2, when he allowed two runs on four hits and two walks. The month of August wasn’t kind to him, but he’s off to a great start in September after three scoreless innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Looking on the Brewers’ side, Robert Gasser will be making his third start of the month. Gasser has been struggling with his command over the last month and a half, as he has 15 walks in seven starts, but it feels that he’s beginning to round the corner and at the right time, too. After allowing two runs in 4.1 innings at Wrigley Field, he walked through the Cubs lineup the first time through in his last outing before being unable to finish at-bats, which led to his quick departure during the fifth inning of the game.

With the Brewers having clinched the playoffs a couple of nights ago, other magic numbers are still in play and on the horizon. The magic number to win the National League Central is still three games, so at very least, we’ll have to wait until tomorrow for that to happen, assuming the Brewers win today and the Cubs lose their next two. Of all the possibilities, a first-round bye is crucial for a deep postseason run, and to get it, they’re sitting at nine games back, and 11 for the No. 1 seed. Finally, to reach 100 wins in the season, they’ll need to win seven out of their next 13 games.

Today’s game will be at 1:10 p.m., and you’ll be able to watch the game on Brewers.TV and listen on WTMJ 620.

Once upon a time, back in the old Yankee Stadium, fans were permitted to go down to the field level behind and near the dugout during batting practice even if they did not have tickets for seats in that section, much like you can do these days along the foul lines in right and left field. Back in 2002, a pair of young fans, no more than six years old, did just that. As excited young children do, they called to the players, and while very few reacted, as their voices were drowned out in the din of the pregame stadium noise, one outfielder noticed them. When he knew that these two kids were looking in his direction, he gave a sly wave, his hand half-hidden by the bat in his hand as he waited to take his turn in the cage.

Of course, waving to two six-year-olds during batting practice isn’t exactly something that a professional baseball needs to hide. But by pretending that it was, this outfielder made those fans feel seen, giving them a much more unique memory than a simple wave normally would be — one that can be remembered just as vividly almost a quarter of a century later. That outfielder? Today’s birthday boy, Bernie Williams.

Bernabé “Bernie” Williams Figueroa Jr.
Born: September 13, 1968 (San Juan, Puerto Rico)
Yankees Tenure: 1991-2006

The son of a merchant marine and a college professor, Bernie Williams excelled in all sorts of athletic and non-athletic pursuits throughout his childhood, becoming an accomplished sprinter (winning four gold and one silver medal at the 1984 Central American and Caribbean Junior Championships), classical guitarist, and pre-medical student at the University of Puerto Rico. But it was baseball that was his first love, and so, when the Yankees signed him as an international amateur free agent, he put his other interests on hold to pursue baseball full-time.

Over the next few years, Williams established himself as one of the game’s premier prospects. It was not a smooth journey by any stretch of the imagination — he struggled so much in Triple-A in 1989 that he was dropped down a level, for example — but in the end, by the time he made his Major League debut on July 7th, 1991, he had been named Baseball America’s second overall prospect. He spent the next two seasons shuttled between the Bronx and Triple-A Columbus, before ultimately starting the 1993 season as the Yankees’ center fielder and leadoff hitter.

Because his former top prospect had not yet broken out as a veritable star by the end of ‘93, George Steinbrenner encouraged his front office to trade Williams that winter, with a rumored deal for Larry Walker possibly on the table. In the end, though, Bernie remained in the Bronx, and, obviously, everything worked out perfectly: from 1995 to 2002, Williams became one of the league’s top players, slashing .321/.406/.531 (a 142 OPS+) and averaging 5.2 rWAR per year while earning five All-Star nods, four Gold Gloves, and one batting title across that span. This performance earned him a seven-year, $85 million contract, as the team nearly signed Albert Belle to replace Bernie but ultimately fought off strong pushes by the Boston Red Sox and the brand-new Arizona Diamondbacks to keep their superstar center fielder in New York.

More important than any regular-season and monetary accolades, however, was that fact Bernie he came up big in October again, and again, and again, helping the Yankees to three straight World Series titles and four in five years, plus another two appearances in the three seasons following the threepeat. Twice, he hit walk-off home runs in ALCS play, first off Randy Myers to down the Orioles in the “Jeffrey Maier Game” in 1996 …

… and then against Rod Beck to set the tone of a five-game thrashing of the Red Sox in 1999.

His 118 wRC+ ranks 341st among the 1,335 players with at least 30 career postseason plate appearances, and his 22 playoff home runs remains the Yankees franchise record (and is bested only by Manny Ramirez, Jose Altuve, Kyle Schwarber, and George Springer).

After his seven-year peak came to an end following the 2002 season, Williams played for four more years. In an era before modern defensive metrics, Bernie remained the Yankees’ center fielder through the 2005 campaign, long after he was an asset with the glove in center field; as our very own Esteban Rivera wrote in his profile of Williams as the 13th greatest player in Yankee history, this “was the difference between remembering him as a Hall of Famer, and Hall of Very Gooder.” After the 2006 season, the team opted not to give him a guaranteed contract; rather than compete for a job, Williams declined the invitation to spring training, and that would be the end of his playing career — even if he did not officially retire until April 24, 2015.

Following his baseball career, Williams turned full-time to music. He had released a studio album while still a player, back in 2003, but it wasn’t until his second album, Moving Forward, released in 2009 that he established himself as a true musician, and not simply as a former athlete moonlighting as a musician.

Throughout his career, he has collaborated with the likes of Bruce Springsteen, earned a Grammy nomination, went on tour, wrote a book about his baseball and music career, received a bachelor’s degree from the Manhattan School of Music, and, earlier this year, played at Carnegie Hall. Not a bad second career.

Happy birthday, Bernie! Here’s to many more.

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

Team News

Frustrating replay call leads to costly D-backs inning
https://www.mlb.com/dbacks/news/d-backs-lose-wild-card-ground-after-frustrating-loss-to-rangers

Lost challenge flips Diamondbacks’ loss to Rangers on its headhttps://arizonasports.com/mlb/arizona-diamondbacks/lost-challenge-flips-diamondbacks-loss-to-rangers-on-its-head

Pavin Smith returns to Diamondbacks in desperate search for answers vs. rightieshttps://arizonasports.com/mlb/arizona-diamondbacks/pavin-smith-returns-to-team-looking-for-answers-vs-righties

Despite Down Season, Corbin Carroll Is Still Setting MLB Recordshttps://www.si.com/mlb/diamondbacks/onsi/despite-down-season-corbin-carroll-still-setting-mlb-records

Diamondbacks collect autographs, wear decorated cleats for Childhood Cancer Awareness Dayhttps://arizonasports.com/character-counts-blogs/collect-autographs-wear-decorated-cleats-for-childhood-cancer-awareness-day

Anything Goes

This day in history:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/September_13

This day in baseball:

https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/september-13

Watching TV burns more calories than sleeping.

But it’s not by a lot. Watching TV only burns 10% more calories than sleep. 

The thumb nail grows the slowest, the middle nail the fastest, nearly 4 times faster than toenails.

Fingernails grow about 3.5 millimeters per month while toenails grow 1.6 mm on average. 

Non-dairy creamer is highly flammable.

Non-dairy creamer powder contains highly flammable ingredients such as sodium aluminosilicate.

The Mariners spanked, smacked, and otherwise stunted on the A’s on their way to an easy-peasy-lemon-squeezy 19-1 win, the largest margin of victory in franchise history! Obviously it would be completely unreasonable to expect the guys to score 19 runs again today, but it would be cool. Jacob Lopez will try to prevent that against Bryce Miller at 1:05 PST.

Happy first Sunday of football season everybody! If you need me, don’t. I will have my butt parked firmly in my chair right at 10:00 am eagerly awaiting Scott Hanson announcing the start of RedZone while a pork shoulder braises.

In Mariners news…

• It takes a village to score 19 runs, but impossible to lose in the shuffle was Michael Arroyo who started yesterday with no hits and no homeruns, and will enter tomorrow with three hits and a homerun already secured.
• A reminder for everyone to join us in next Sunday morning at Green Lake Ballfield #1 for the 5th annual Tim Cantu Memorial Softball Game!

Around the league…

• Yankees ace Gerrit Cole has never been especially good against the Mets, and yesterday was no exception. What was exceptional about Cole’s start yesterday was how it started. Cole, apparently a real stickler for the nuance of scheduling, decided to stand behind the mound and wait for the clock to tick over to 1:38 pm before stepping on the mound to throw the first pitch.

• The A’s have been pretty devastated by injuries in the second half of this season, so joy of joys for them that they got All-Star Shea Langeliers back from the IL ahead of schedule! And his reward for his rehab efforts was getting to play in last night’s game. Baseball can be really cruel sometimes.
• A note to all the kids at home reading this, if you catch your spike on the mound maybe just hold onto the baseball. Otherwise, you run the risk of looking as silly as Joey Cantillo here.

Nick’s pick…

• Lol Ducks.

Make no mistake, the Cubs have won a lot of games this season with their patient approach at the plate. The willingness to move the line and not try to do too much has served them well so many times. But this is the first game this year where I can remember that their patience literally won them the game. No disrespect to Pedro Ramirez or anyone who pitched in this game. We’re going to talk about all of them before we are done here. But the decisive stretch of the game went hit by pitch, walk, walk (game tied), hit by pitch (Cubs lead). As was pointed out in my initial look at this series, the Pirate bullpen got better at the trade deadline and they’ve been pretty good when they are able to deploy their leverage pitchers in leverage situations. Gregory Soto was the only reliever they used in this one and he lost some amount of command and control. The Cubs benefitted and got the win.

This was a close one, so we ought to take a peek at the WPA from it. After the top of the fifth, the Cubs were up to 81.9 percent to win this game. By the end of the top of the sixth, that was down to just 38.6 percent. The Cubs bottomed at 24.7 percent to win after the bottom of the seventh. Ryan Rolison’s scoreless eighth got them back about 5 percent. Pedro Ramirez’ double jumped them all of the way back to 47.1 percent. But when Pete Crow-Armstrong struck out for the second out, it was all of the way down to 25.6 percent again. Unsurprisingly, the Shaw bases loaded walk (.278) was the Play of the Game. The Nico Hoerner hit by pitch for the go ahead run was worth slightly less (.248). Those two reaches turned a loss into a probable win.

As is nearly always the case in a low-scoring, one-run win, just about every contribution was vital to the win. So for today at least, I’m ditching three positives. I’m going with a series of hat tips instead. I’m going chronological and not in any order of importance. Michael Busch for a first-inning homer. I hadn’t realized it was the first ever run Paul Skenes gave up at Wrigley Field until they said it on the broadcast. I know they had beaten him a few times in Pittsburgh, the two wins in games Colin Rea has started against him the last two years front and center in my head. That had to put the Cubs squarely in the right head space.

Pedro Ramirez led off the third with a solo homer of his own. He also had the double leading off the eighth that led to the decisive rally. Pedro had a huge impact on this game and I imagine him having a good shot to win the Player of the Game vote.

While those two were giving the Cubs the lead, Clay Holmes was terrific. He ended up one out short of a quality start. Nico Hoerner appeared to possibly get caught thinking about trying to turn a very difficult double play and that let the inning get away. Even if you leave the sequencing as is, Holmes leaves 2-2 after six otherwise. Of course, maybe they work Ryan O’Hearn differently if it is one on and one out rather than two on with no outs.

Jacob Webb came into a bases-loaded situation to get out of the sixth, then worked a scoreless seventh. Let me say it this way, you hate your circle of trust, but also Jacob Webb is pretty darn close to the circle, using what you’ve got.

Both Seiya Suzuki and Matt Shaw taking huge walks in pinch-hit plate appearance in the eighth. Seiya’s loaded the bases and Shaw’s tied the game. It’s hard to be patient, I’m sure with the game on line. But they both had quality plate appearances and it turned the game in favor of the Cubs. Nico Hoerner had the decisive hit by pitch and I was a little surprised the Pirates didn’t at least argue that he made no attempt to move. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen that called unless the ump calls it right away. But I didn’t think Nico even flinched on it.

Ryan Rolison bridged the eighth and the ninth innings, retiring five of the six batters he faced. He’s pretty securely your first lefty out of the pen. Rolison and Webb have saved the Cub season. As bad as the bullpen has been, without those two, this may have gotten really ugly. We’d all rather have the Brewers or Padres bullpen to call on to close one out, but at this point you can only play the hand you were dealt. To that end, Ryan Zeferjahn faced one batter to finish this and he ended it with a strikeout looking. Just the kind of arm you hope to have out of your pen. Zeferjahn was one of two deadline additions that will probably be best assessed in the future and not in this postseason. Though obviously, he could make a huge impact this postseason and start firmly on the right foot.

For most trade deadline acquisitions or if you are a team like the Dodgers, at the end of the day you are evaluated based on how far you go into the postseason. Kyle Tucker had a rough season for the Dodgers. If he’s a key part of a championship run, none of that matters. Zeferjahn had a rough start as a Cub. If he closes out a win that lets the Cubs advance a round in the postseason, that’s going to be what mattered in the end.

Kudos to this team. After the last loss in Milwaukee, I talked about this. This team is resilient. This team doesn’t believe they’ll just get demolished by the Brewers. They know the Brewers are damn good. But they’ll believe with a break or two they would have won the season series and that they could definitely win a playoff series. It won’t be easy, but I trust this team to not play at a disadvantage against anyone. They’ve beaten all of the best teams. Swept a series from the Dodgers. Beat the Padres. Crushed the Phillies. This team may not win, but it won’t back down.

Game 149, September 12: Cubs 4, Pirates 3 (83-66)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Matt Shaw (.269). 0-0, BB, RBI
• Hero: Pedro Ramirez (.251). 2-3, HR, 2B, RBI, 2 R
• Sidekick: Nico Hoerner (.205) 1-3, HBP, RBI

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Clay Holmes (-.179). 5.2 IP, 27 BF, 5 H, 4 BB, 3 R (2 ER), 6 K
• Goat: Michael Conforto (-.159). 0-4
• Kid: Tyrone Taylor (-.144). 0-3

WPA Play of the Game: Ryan O’Hearn’s three-run homer with one out in the sixth gave the Pirates a one run lead. (.340)

Cubs Play of the Game: Matt Shaw’s walk with the bases loaded that tied the game. (.278)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 148 Winner: Shōta Imanaga received 24 of 57 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Alex Bregman +27
• Pete Crow-Armstrong +24.5
• Michael Conforto +17
• Carson Kelly +16.5
• Ben Brown +13.5
• Jameson Taillon -13
• Seiya Suzuki -15
• Nico Hoerner -15
• Dansby Swanson -17
• Caleb Thielbar -18.5

Scoreboard Watching: Padres win (2.5 back of Cubs). Diamondbacks and Phillies both played late.

Up Next: The third and final game of the series. With Saturday’s win, the Cubs secured the season series with the Pirates for the 12th(!!!) consecutive season. The Pirates have had some struggles, but certainly not 12 years of struggles. These two wins push them below .500 on the season. Matthew Boyd (8-4, 4.03) gets the start for the Cubs. Boyd is just 2-3 with a 4.98 over his last seven. He’s lost two of his last three starts, allowing seven earned runs over 18.1 innings. None of them have been terrible, but just not as sharp. He beat the Pirates in July in Pittsburgh, allowing a run on seven hits and three walks over seven innings.

Righty Bubba Chandler (7-9, 4.25) starts for the Pirates. Chandler is heading in the right direction. He’s 4-1 with a 3.38 over his last seven. And he won his last start, allowing four hits, no walks and two runs against the White Sox in Chicago. He struck out eight. He’s made two starts but recorded no decisions against the Cubs. He’s allowed seven runs in only 10.1 innings of work. So the Cubs have hit him well.

I always love to check back with Fangraphs. The Pirates starter was scratched on Friday. That made the Cubs about a 56-44 favorite in that one. They’ve also revised this Sunday game up to 54-46. So they do now like the Cubs to finish this sweep, even before the win over Skenes is rolled into the equation. The model still loves the Cubs against the Braves, basically 55 percent or better for all three games. Obviously, the Braves front loaded their top starters to facing the Phillies this weekend in an effort to push towards a division title. The Fangraphs modeling has the Cubs back at 90 wins. Again, before today’s win is in there (it would have been 89, but this win over Skenes flipped one upside down).

After these last couple of days, Fangraphs now sees the Cubs with a better chance to reach the playoffs than the Phillies, but still see the Phillies as more likely to win the World Series. They basically have the Phillies at 7 percent to win it all, the Braves 6 and the Cubs 5. I have no problem with the modelling that suggests that. Fangraphs frames the best chances to win as Dodgers (27), Brewers (13), Yankees (10) and Rays (9.5). You can always find a nitpick, but none of that seems too crazy.

Saturday in the Dodgers minor leagues saw Oklahoma City get even closer to a postseason berth, and Tulsa power their way to another win in a record-setting evening in Springdale, Arkansas.

Player of the day

Patrick Copen’s final start of the regular season was very good, with six scoreless innings and six strikeouts for Double-A Tulsa, allowing only two singles and two walks.

Copen had a rough go of things this season in a return trip to Tulsa, finishing with a 5.90 ERA in his 116 innings, but things could have been much worse. Through July 22, Copen had a 7.45 ERA with 12 home runs in 73 2/3 innings and a 9.5-percent strikeout-minus-walk rate, but in his final eight appearances put up a 3.19 ERA and only two home runs allowed in 42 1/3 innings with a 19.5-percent strikeout-minus-walk rate.

Triple-A Oklahoma City

The Comets kept rolling, winning their 14th straight game, making three runs in the third inning stand up on Saturday to beat the Sugar Land Space Cowboys (Astros) yet again.

Zach Ehrhard singled home a run in the third inning and would later double, then he scored on a two-run home run by Alek Thomas, his fourth home run in seven games since getting sent back to Triple-A.

Christian Romero struck out seven and didn’t allow a run until two scored off him in the fifth, his final inning. Kyle Hurt, Ronan Kopp, and Jerming Rosario each struck out multiple people in relief, combining for seven strikeouts in their 3 1/3 innings, followed by Garrett McDaniels getting the final two outs to close out the win.

Double-A Tulsa

The Drillers got home runs by Elijah Hainline and Joe Vetrano to back Copen and beat the Northwest Arkansas Naturals (Royals). Tulsa has 197 home runs on the season to lead the Texas League and surpass the 2022 team for the most in Drillers history. Hainline’s homer was the record-setter.

Hainline reached base three times, and Copen left with an 8-0 lead. Northwest Arkansas scored two runs in the eighth and ninth innings to make the final score closer.

The 88-49 Drillers have the most wins in a Tulsa baseball season since 95 wins by the Oilers, a St. Louis Cardinals affiliate, in 1968.

That 2022 Tulsa team was led in home runs by Ryan Ward (28) and a 21-year-old Andy Pages (26), plus excellent pass-throughs by James Outman (16 homers in 68 games) and Michael Busch (11 homers in 31 games).

Saturday scores

• Oklahoma City 3, Sugar Land 2
• Tulsa 8, Northwest Arkansas 4

Sunday schedule

• 12:05 p.m. PT: Oklahoma City (Cole Irvin) vs. Sugar Land (TBA)
• 12:05 p.m.: Tulsa (Roque Gutierrez) at Northwest Arkansas (Ethan Bosacker)

Much like the day before, the San Diego Padres jumped out to a lead against the San Francisco Giants and needed their back-end bullpen arms to lock down the 7-6 win at Oracle Park on Saturday.

Michael King took the mound for San Diego and was hurt by the home run over the first two innings but settled in over the next five to earn the win. Rafael Devers gave San Francisco the lead with a two-run home run to right field, which was his second homer in as many days to give the Giants a 2-0 lead. After the Padres responded with two runs in the top of the second, Shay Whitcomb connected on a one-out solo home run in the bottom of the inning to put San Francisco up 3-2.

Jackson Merrill stayed hot and hit his 25th home run of the season when he connected on a one-out solo home run in the top of the third inning, which tied the game at 3-3. San Diego took its first lead of the game in the top of the fourth inning when Samad Taylor and Fernando Tatis Jr. reached on back-to-back singles. Dustin Harries, who was batting second for the Padres, hit a sacrifice fly which allowed Taylor to tag up and score from third to make the score, 4-3.

San Diego scored a run in the fifth and an emphatic run in the sixth when Tatis hit a 421-foot leadoff home run to left field which pushed the Padres’ lead to 6-3. San Diego tacked on a run on a San Francisco error in the top of the seventh inning to give the Padres a comfortable four-run lead at 7-3 after their half of the seventh.

Bradgley Rodriguez replaced King on the mound to start bottom of the eighth inning and had a disappointing outing. The rookie right-hander was tagged for a leadoff home run, a single and a two-run home run, which allowed the Giants to get back in the game at 7-6. Adrian Morejon was called on to stop the San Francisco scoring after Rodriguez was unable to record an out while allowing three runs. Morejon recorded back-to-back strikeouts and got a groundout to end the eighth.

Mason Miller came on for the bottom of the ninth and had a much better outing than he did in Game 1. He needed just 17 pitches to retire the final three batters to get the win and earn his 36th save.

King was solid outside of the first two innings. He pitched seven innings, allowed three runs on five hits and struck out four without allowing a walk. King had four innings where he faced the minimum number of batters and two of his five hits allowed came in the seventh inning, his final inning of work.

The Padres will go for the road sweep of the Giants and look to extend their winning streak to six games when they meet today at 4:20 p.m.

Padres News:

• The majority of respondents to this week’s Gaslamp Ball Reacts Survey believe if the Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks keep running neck and neck in the final weeks of the season, their series at Petco Park will determine which team advances to the postseason.

Baseball News:

• The New York Mets hit six home runs and beat Gerrit Cole and the New York Yankees.

• The Chicago Cubs came from behind to beat the Pittsburgh Pirates, 4-3.

• The Toronto Blue Jays topped the Baltimore Orioles to continue their playoff pursuit.

• CJ Abrams and James Wood lead the Washington Nationals to an extra-inning win over the Los Angeles Angels.

• The Detroit Tigers scored seven runs in the eighth inning to beat the Colorado Rockies.

• The Tampa Bay Rays added another win to their total with a 3-2 defeat of the Houston Astros.

• The Texas Rangers got some players back and they made an instant impact and helped the Rangers beat the Arizona Diamondbacks.