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The home run grind rolls into a great Friday slate, and the +EV dingers and MLB player props are plentiful today. 

It's never a bad idea to look for home runs in Cincinnati, but the pitching matchup is making it even better today, and getting the No. 2 HR/FB hitter in baseball at a price north of +500 is also making the card.

These are my favorite home run props for Friday, May 29.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Mike Yastrzemski	+577
Bryce Harper	+527

Home run pick: Mike Yastrzemski (+577)

Great American Ball Park is always a strong place to target home runs, and Mike Yastrzemski is one of the better +EV dinger looks on the board today with a fair price around +480, per the projections at Covers powered by THE BAT.

He’s in strong form right now with the team’s third-best slugging percentage and wOBA over the last 30 days, while also getting the ball in the air consistently with a 52% fly-ball rate that ranks second on the team this month.

He’ll face Chris Paddack, who has been crushed at GABP this year with a 12.67 ERA and a 2.2 HR/9. His 35% groundball rate does him no favors in this park, and his Bottom-10 xFIP among MLB starters over the last 30 days suggests the struggles are very real.

Pitcher/hitter history is usually secondary, but it’s still worth noting that Yastrzemski has had success against Paddack with three home runs across 25 plate appearances.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Reds.TV, BravesVision

Home run pick: Bryce Harper (+527)

Dodger Stadium grades out as a Top-5 park for home runs today, per Ballpark Pal, with 9-mph winds blowing out to right-center field.

That’s good news for a Bryce Harper bomb priced north of +500, with a buy point at +480 or better. Harper has already launched seven home runs this month and owns an absurd 31.8% HR/FB rate over the last 30 days, which ranks second in baseball behind only teammate Kyle Schwarber at 37.5%.

Harper’s fly-ball rate hasn’t been elite lately, but if he gets one in the air against Justin Wrobleski, it could quickly turn into four bases. Wrobleski is a fly-ball pitcher with reverse splits who has been vulnerable to left-handed hitters. There's often value in targeting reverse-split arms because the market tends to overprice the lefty vs. lefty matchup.

• Time: 10:15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Apple TV

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

MiLB Recap: Cooper Ingle homers again, top prospect Robert Arias seriously injured 

Columbus Clippers 10, Toledo Mud Hens 3 

Clippers improve to 28-25

The Columbus Clippers offense blasted off for 10 runs on 17 hits as every player in the lineup had at least one hit with five players have multi-hit games and all but two reaching base safely at least twice.

Leading the charge was Nolan Jones, who went 4-for-5 with a double. Jones has quietly raised his Triple-A batting average to .269 and his OPS is up to .802.

Angel Genao had a three-hit game, going 3-for-4 with a double and a walk. 

Cooper Ingle had the big hit of the day, going 2-for-6 with a three-run home run.

C.J. Kayfus went 2-for-5 with a double and three runs scored, Milan Tolentino went 2-for-5 with two stolen bases, Juan Brito went 1-for-2 with two walks and a steal and Bo Naylor returned to Columbus by going 1-for-4 with a walk.

Starting pitcher Austin Peterson was decent, allowing three runs on five hits with seven strikeouts and three walks in 4.0 innings. Knuckleballer Trenton Denholm was sensational in long relief, tossing 5.0 shutout one-hit frames with four strikeouts and three walks to earn the win.

Akron RubberDucks 4, Richmond Flying Squirrels 5

RubberDucks fall to 26-22

Akron had 12 hits but couldn’t string enough of them together on Thursday. Wuilfredo Antunez led the way, going 3-for-4.

Jaison Chourio doubled and walked while Jose Devers went 2-for-3 with a walk. Juan Benjamin went 2-for-3 with a sacrifice.

Starting pitcher Josh Hartle allowed two runs (one earned) on six hits in 5.0 innings. He didn’t strike out any batters and walked one.

Carter Rustad took the loss, allowing three runs on five hits in his 2.0 innings.

Lake County Captains 4, Beloit Sky Carp 2

Captains improve to 25-22

Lake County took advantage of eight walks to score four runs despite getting just four hits. Jace LaViolette reached base safely twice with a walk, a single and a stolen base.

Nolan Schubart walked twice and both Maick Collado and Esteban Gonzalez went 1-for-3 with a walk. Gonzalez also stole a base.

Starting pitcher Jackson Humphries was superb, tossing 4.0 shutout innings of two-hit ball with seven strikeouts and no walks.

Michael Kennedy also had one of his better outings of the season, finishing off the game with 5.0 innings of long relief, allowing two runs on four hits with four strikeouts and no walks.

Hill City Howlers 2, Fayetteville Woodpeckers 4

Howlers fall to 24-24

Top Guardians outfield prospect Robert Arias was in the middle of a breakout season, slashing .294/.400/.865 through 44 games in his age-19 campaign at Single-A Hill City.

Unfortunately, after a leadoff single on Thursday, Arias was injured sliding into second base when I think he caught a spike and his foot rolled underneath his body and he was removed from the game in an air cast. I wish him the best and hope for a swift recovery.

Jose Pirela went 2-for-4 and Anthony Martinez doubled, but otherwise, the offense was pretty non-existent.

Starting pitcher Joey Oakie absolutely dominated opposing hitters, allowing one run on two hits with eight strikeouts and two walks in 4.2 innings. 

Ryan Prager was sensational out of the bullpen, striking out all six of his outs in 2.0 scoreless innings, but Miguel Flores allowed two runs in his 3.0 innings of long relief to take the loss.

MLB’s owners and players exchanged CBA proposals yesterday. Jeff Passan has your breakdown here for ESPN.

For one, I dread the discussion and division ahead. Of course, a hard cap benefits owners who want to control the spending they have to commit to in order to get top-end talent. Also, players do not particularly care about competitive balance issues and refuse to admit that the current financial system is not particularly fair to mid-level talent or to fans. I kinda hate everyone involved already so expect analysis from other writers here, not me.

Tim Stebbins has an article on Travis Bazzana and Chase DeLauter. Would be nice to see CDL get a little burst from the off-day and get back on track.

Steven Kwan has been placed on the family leave/bereavement list. Our sympathies go out to him and hopes that things will be ok, whatever is going on. Neither Stuart Fairchild nor George Valera were in the Columbus lineup yesterday. One would assume it will be Valera because he is on the 40-man and left-handed.

Around MLB:

The White Sox beat the Twins and the Tigers lost to the Angels.

When it was happening, the San Diego Padres and their fans knew the walk-off wins and seventh inning surges would not propel them through the season — but it was fun. The most recent homestand saw the Padres finish with a 3-6 record over nine games at Petco Park and was hardly the result anyone expected but was not totally shocking either.

There were concerns about the San Diego rotation coming into the season, but no one predicted the offense would be this bad. For the majority of the season, the big three of Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill have struggled to provide any significant contributions at the plate. Machado has a slash line of .169/.265/.339 with nine home runs, 27 RBI and 27 runs scored. Tatis has a slash line of .260/.339/.300 with no home runs, 16 RBI and 19 runs scored, and Merrill has a slash line of .200/.271/.318 with four home runs, 19 RBI and 24 runs scored.

The trio of San Diego’s stars combined are eight home runs shy of the MLB leader, Kyle Schwarber. In fact, with all three combined, they would not rank in the top 10 in long balls this season. It was said about the spending under former owner Peter Seidler and it was said this season about the late-inning heroics to win games, this is not sustainable. Somehow the Padres remain seven games above .500, but San Diego is currently on a four-game skid and that seven can get to zero in a hurry unless something changes.

Padres News:

• Trade season is drawing near and already rumors about the Padres have surfaced. San Diego, according to reports, is considering adding to its elite bullpen and perhaps to the starting rotation. Thomas Conroy of Gaslamp Ball tries to shed some light on why some moves could and/or should happen.

• Jackson Merrill has been one of the more disappointing players in the San Diego lineup, but he is working to change that. With two hits against Philadelphia Phillies ace Christopher Sanchez, he may be nearing a return to form.

• MLB and the MLBPA have traded proposals and have begun negotiating toward a new CBA that will prevent a lockout that will affect the 2027 season and beyond.

• Ryan Wideman stole two bases for Lake Elsinore and has pushed his season total to 35.

Baeball News:

• Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Paul Skenes recorded 10 strikeouts and allowed one earned run, but the Chicago Cubs won the game, 7-2.

• Chris Sale reminded the Red Sox what they lost when he left Boston as the Atlanta Braves cruised to a 10-2 win.

• Andres Gimenez homered and helped the Toronto Blue Jays beat the Baltimore Orioles, 2-1.

• The Chicago White Sox beat the Minnesota Twins and secured their first winning month since 2023.

• Grayson Rodriguez and the Los Angeles Angels beat the Detroit Tigers, 7-1 in Detroit.

We took a little mini break from bases per out, but we were always going to come back. This is really about two suppositions. First, the Astros current pitching staff is MLB average. We saw that in the last lab that we ran on Wednesday. Yes, Josh Hader is due back next week. Hunter Brown is due back in a couple of weeks. Still, this is not the kind of pitching staff the team had in 2018, 2019, or 2022. That brings us to the second supposition. The Astros offense is also currently average.

The good news is that the team finds themselves three games out of first place as of this writing. There have been a few instances in history where teams have won their division with fewer than 85 wins. When I reviewed the math problem with everyone it was based on the assumption that 85 wins would be needed to get into the playoffs. It is fair at this point to question whether that actually is true. If it takes only 82 or 83 wins then the math changes and things become much more possible.

Yordan Alvarez and Christian Walker have been spectacular this season. Yet, when you look at the rest of the current unit, no other regular has an OPS higher than Christian Vazquez at .725 and he will likely see that go down if expected numbers are correct. Players like Jeremy Pena are expected to improve and certainly that should be the case, but this offense is a little top heavy and that is clear in the outfield. If we consider Yordan Alvarez as a designated hitter only then there are seven guys that have gotten considerable time that likely will factor into the current or future plans of the organization.

As a reminder, bases per out are calculated by adding total bases, walks, stolen bases, and hit by pitches and dividing it by the total number of outs a player accrues. The current MLB average is .663. It goes without saying, but you want the players with the most outs to be the players that accrue the most damage per out. However, I am sure you will notice something immediately when looking at the outfielders. They will be listed in order of outs.

You’ve undoubtedly noticed that Trammel is the only outfielder over the league average and he has the least number of outs. Obviously, that is due to his untimely injury in Cleveland and he has been back in the lineup since returning from the injured list. Cole was mercifully sent down and Loperfido is on a rehab assignment, so he should be back next week as well. So, who amongst these guys will he replace?

Admittedly, holding a spot is not only a function of offensive production. The Astros have to consider things like positional flexibility, options, and defensive output. The same is true for when deciding who gets to start and where. Based on those points alone, Dezenzo would seem to be the most likely player out because of a lack of positional flexibility and defensive ability.

Certainly, this current road trip has changed a lot of minds over what is possible down the stretch. I am certainly in that group, but it is more about what other teams are not doing than what the Astros have actually done. Given that, the job for Joe Espada is to manage with razor thin margins and get as much blood out of that rock as possible. Many of you are screaming about the fielding side and it is definitely a factor. So, below we see the defensive innings along with the defensive runs saved (DRS), outs above average (OAA), and fielding run value (FRV). All three are popular fielding metrics that usually say the same thing, but occasionally disagree because they all have their own methods and assumptions.

To give everyone some context, Smith is likely to be a finalist again for the Gold Glove in right field if he continues on this pace. Unlike last season, he may actually take it home this time. That obviously complicates a decision as to whether he should get regular starts in right field. When you add in the fact that he is probably the second best outfielder offensively behind Loperfido (Trammel likely comes back to Earth) then it seems pretty clear that he has right field held down.

This is why competing matters. If you are in the business of winning games then you put the best three guys out there. If you are in the business of development then you consider the best interests of the player. Smith likely should have been in the minors last season and maybe this season as well. It still might have been best for his overall development. Yet, if you are in the business of winning games then you need him out there.

Loperfido and Trammel seem like a nice platoon in left of sorts. In this case, it isn’t so much which side of the plate they hit from (left) as riding the hot hand in the moment. Trammel is not likely to be an average MLB performer over a full season. He certainly looks the part now, so you might as well ride that bull until it bucks you. Over a longer timeline, Loperfido has a slightly higher upside.

That leaves centerfield. Matthews has made that more compelling through his defense. Is Jake Meyers likely to live at a .531 BPO? He has a career .613 BPO. It seems reasonable to expect him to get back to the neighborhood of a .600 BPO at the very least. That certainly begs the question: is Brice Matthews likely to elevate himself to that? Obviously, what 2027 or 2028 might look like is anyone’s best guess, but the simple answer to that question in 2026 is likely no.

When Jose Altuve comes back it becomes a question of whether you want to option Matthews, Braden Shewmake, or Nick Allen. We haven’t looked at their numbers yet, but suffice it to say that both are performing better than Matthews. Remember, this is about squeezing as much offense as possible out of players that are not quite league average. If you have enough luck and win enough close games then you can find yourself right back in the hunt. These are razor thin margins we are talking about here, so the Astros must exploit every positive difference they can.

Astros 5, Rangers 1

• Guys, I’m getting worried about the Rangers’ chances of winning the Silver Boot this year.
• Also, it appears that the addition of Nicky Lopez to the lineup hasn’t catalyzed the offense.
• The last seven days have been demoralizing, as a Rangers fan. An opportunity to make a push and take control of the American League West has turned instead into a downward spiral.
• This game, for example?
• Very unpleasant.
• Nathan Eovaldi giving up three runs in the first inning, part of the team’s ongoing inability to keep teams off the board in the first inning.
• Rangers’ opponents have now scored 45 runs in the first inning this season. 31 runs have been allowed in the fifth inning. They haven’t allowed more than 23 runs in any other inning.
• The entire rotation has been stricken with Dane Dunning disease.
• Maybe Texas just needs to start using an opener in every game.
• It wouldn’t solve the problem with the offense, however.
• The Rangers recorded a whopping four hits in the game. Two by Josh Jung and two by Ezequiel Duran.
• Incidentally, as part of the “the Shed has been de-nerfed” monitoring, Jung’s homer went 424 feet, as did Jeremy Pena’s. Those both are among the 10 balls in play that have traveled the farthest at the Shed this season. Eight of the top 10 on the list have come in the past three games.
• The evidence continues to mount.
• As do the losses.
• Nathan Eovaldi hit 95.7 mph with his fastball, averaging 94.1 mph. Cal Quantrill’s sinker topped out at 94.4 mph.
• Jake Burger had a 106.1 mph ground out. Josh Jung’s homer was 103.6 mph off the bat. Ezequiel Duran had a 103.6 mph single.
• The Royals now come to town. Maybe the Rangers can avoid being swept by Kansas City.

Good morning, LSB.

The Rangers lost to the Astros last night, 5-1.

Shawn McFarland’s game story discusses the hole that Texas’ starting pitching has been digging in the early going of games.

Kennedi Landry evaluates what’s gone wrong with the Rangers’ season one-third of the way into it.

Skip Schumaker missed the game while attending his son’s high school graduation.

Josh Smith is back with the team after a bout viral meningitis.

Cody Freeman has been activated from the IL and optioned to Round Rock.

Evan Grant answered the questions of exasperated Rangers fans in a live Q&A on Youtube.

And finally there’s a strong chance we look back at tonight’s Nolan Ryan bloody jersey giveaway as the greatest thing the 2026 Texas Rangers offered us.

That’s all for this morning. The Rangers start up a series with the Royals tonight at 7:05 with MacKenzie Gore on the mound for Texas.

Happy Friday!

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With an intriguing matchup on the mound, I'm expecting a low-scoring first inning between the New York Mets and Miami Marlins in their series opener.

That game headlines my favorite MLB picks today for the "no run first inning" and "yes run first inning" markets.

Here are my best NRFI predictions and YRFI picks for Friday, May 29.

Best NRFI/YRFI predictions today

Pick	Odds
/ - NRFI	-145
/ - NRFI	-120
/ - NRFI	-130

Marlins at Mets: NRFI (-145)

A pair of studs take the hill tonight between the Miami Marlins and New York Mets.

Max Meyer gets the ball for the visitors, and he's collected a 2.52 ERA this season. The right-hander has a 9-2 NRFI/YRFI record as well, and he's held the Mets to a .094 average across 32 at-bats.

They failed to score off him in the first last Sunday. 

Freddy Peralta counters for New York, and he hasn't allowed a run in the first inning in 10 straight appearances, and he's up against a Marlins lineup that doesn't often score in the first.

They're also batting just .239 in the opening frame, and he held them scoreless in the first last week. 

I'd play this up to -160. 

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Marlins.TV, WPIX-11

Cubs at Cardinals: NRFI (-120)

Shota Imanaga takes the hill for the Chicago Cubs tonight, and while he's struggled at times this season, the left-hander rarely gets in trouble in the first. 

He owns a 8-3 NRFI/YRFI record, and he hasn't given up a run in the first in five straight. The St. Louis Cardinals haven't scored in the opening frame in nine games and counting.

The hosts will hand Kyle Leahy the ball, and he's also been lights out in the first, with a 9-1 NRFI/YRFI record.

The Cubbies are hitting only .222 in the first inning, and they've scored just 10 times in the opening frame in 2026. 

This is a play I'd take up to -150. 

• Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MARQ, Cardinals.TV

Royals at Rangers: NRFI (-130)

The Kansas City Royals and Texas Rangers are both struggling to score runs right now, and the pitching matchup here will make it difficult to get things going early on.

Stephen Kolek has a 2.77 ERA, and he hasn't allowed a run in the first once this year across four starts. 

MacKenzie Gore has an ERA over 4.00, but he's usually came out unscathed in the opening frame, posting a 8-3 NRFI/YRFI record in '26.

The Royals' offense hasn't came across the dish in the first in four straight, while Texas has been held scoreless in the first in four of their previous six games. 

I'll confidently ride this pick up to -140. 

• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Royals.TV, KDAF-CW33

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The start of the MLB season hasn't been kind to the San Francisco Giants and their first baseman, Rafael Devers.

The Giants have a 22-34 record through one-third of the season. Devers, their 2025 splash acquisition from the Boston Red Sox, has had a rather forgetful start to the 2026 season. He's on pace for one of his worst seasons in MLB, since his professional debut in 2017.

Devers is batting .242 with just seven homers in 215 at-bats through 56 games. This season he has struck out 69 times, which is ranked within the top 15 in baseball. His grand slam Sunday in the Giants' 8-5 win against the Chicago White Sox brought a sigh of relief after a sluggish start.

He followed it with a 1-for-3 performance, adding two RBIs in the first game of a three-game series with the Arizona Diamondbacks, a 6-2 loss on Monday, May 25. He remained in rhythm the following games batting 1-for-4 and adding an RBI despite the Giants losing, 7-5.

He cooled off in the final game of the series against Arizona. Devers was 0-of-4 as San Francisco was swept in the series after a 3-2 loss on May 27.

One of the more pressing issues for the Giants is what's going on with Devers and what to do with him at this point in his tenure. As talented as Devers is, the Giants' record indicates that something has got to change, and you start with Devers. The Giants need to determine whether they will continue to believe in Devers and allow him to shake the funk, or if they will bench him, or let him go altogether.

The Cubs broke their long losing streak with a 10-4 win over the Pirates Wednesday, though that game was close until the late innings after the Cubs had taken an early lead.

They followed the same script Thursday, though it took them a while to break through against Paul Skenes. Even so, a 3-0 lead became 3-2 and it felt a bit too close for a while until Ian Happ’s eighth-inning homer keyed a three-run inning, leading to a 7-2 Cubs win over the Pirates. Hey, a baby winning streak, two in a row!

Paul Skenes had no trouble to start things off, retiring 10 of the first 11 Cubs, seven of those by strikeout. The first Cub to reach base until the fourth was Dansby Swanson, who walked in the third.

Pete Crow-Armstrong then singled and tried to stretch that into two bases when Swanson drew a throw to third.

Not a good idea, Pete [VIDEO].

I understand wanting to be aggressive on the bases and the play was, indeed, close. But against a pitcher like Skenes who’s dealing? Why not just have runners on first and third with two out?

Colin Rea was matching zeroes with Skenes, though he did give up a double in the first and walked and hit a batter in the third.

Then Michael Busch walked with one out in the fourth and one out later, Ian Happ singled.

Seiya Suzuki’s single gave the Cubs the lead [VIDEO].

Fact about that run from BCB’s JohnW53:

This was the third time in their eight games facing Skenes that the Cubs scored first. They won both of the previous two, also at Pittsburgh, 14-10 on Aug. 28, 2024, and 4-1 on Sept. 16 of last year. Skenes got the loss in the first game and no decision in the second.

1-0 Cubs was how the game stayed until the top of the sixth. Busch walked for the second time and Alex Bregman reached on a throwing error.

An infield single by Happ and another Pirates error made it 2-0 [VIDEO].

Bregman took third on the play and that was it for Skenes, who threw 103 pitches in 5.1 innings. That’s always a good game plan against Skenes — try to run up his pitch count and get him out of the game as early as possible. He did strike out 10 Cubs. Mason Montgomery relieved Skenes and got Suzuki to hit a ground ball, but Suzuki beat a possible double-play relay and Bregman crossed the plate with the third Cubs run [VIDEO].

The Pirates, though, made it close in the bottom of the sixth. Bryan Reynolds, always tough on Cubs pitching, homered, his 14th all-time against the Cubs. Two more hits, including an RBI double from rookie Tyler Callihan off reliever Hoby Milner, made it 3-2. The second run was charged to Rea, who overall I thought threw pretty well. Here’s a summary of Rea’s outing [VIDEO].

Caleb Thielbar threw a scoreless seventh, striking out two, and then the Cubs blew the game open in the top of the eighth — all with two out and nobody on base. Bregman singled and Happ followed with his 12th home run of the year [VIDEO].

That ball was crushed! [VIDEO]

Here’s a cool field-level view of Happ’s homer [VIDEO].

The Cubs were not done in that inning. Suzuki singled and pinch-hitter Michael Conforto walked. Both runners moved up on a wild pitch, and as ball four was thrown to Miguel Amaya, the pitch got by Pirates catcher Henry Davis and Suzuki scored to make it 6-2 [VIDEO].

Trent Thornton threw a 1-2-3 eighth, all on ground outs, and the Cubs then extended their lead in the top of the ninth. PCA walked and Nico Hoerner singled. PCA drew a throw again when he tried for third, and this time he was safe, with Nico taking second.

Then this happened [VIDEO].

Bregman hit a grounder to second and the Pirates threw home to try to get PCA. He was called out, but the call was overturned on review to make it 7-2. You can see PCA’s right hand touch the plate just before he was tagged

Thornton allowed a leadoff single in the ninth, then got a double-play ball and this fly to deep right field to end the game [VIDEO].

Nice work by Thornton, who got six outs on only 22 pitches. He’s become a real asset in the bullpen.

More on this win from John:

With their win Thursday night, the Cubs are 164-156 since 2000 in games immediately after ones in which they had scored at least 10 runs. They are 4-2 this season.

The Cubs averaged 12.02 runs in the double-digit games, then 4.83 in the next games, including 6.66 in the wins.

Here’s Happ on his home run, on facing Skenes and about Rea’s game [VIDEO].

Happ appears to be starting one of his hot streaks. He went 5-for-11 in the last two games in Pittsburgh with two home runs and seven RBI. Also, this fun fact about Happ:

Here are Craig Counsell’s postgame comments [VIDEO].

The win put the Cubs in second place in the NL Central, half a game ahead of the Cardinals (despite having one more loss) and four games behind the Brewers. And they’ll have a chance to put more distance between themselves and the Cardinals beginning tonight, as they open their first 2026 series against their division rivals in St. Louis. Shōta Imanaga will start for the Cubs and Andre Pallante goes for the Cardinals. Game time is 6:15 p.m. CT and TV coverage will be via Marquee Sports Network.

Jhoan Duran has been every bit the elite closer he was advertised as since arriving in Philadelphia last year. In 40 appearances since joining the Phillies at the trade deadline last season, Duran is 27 for 30 in save opportunities with a 1.93 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. He’s off to a great start so far in 2026, as Duran is a perfect 11 for 11 in save opportunities and sports a 1.62 ERA through 17 appearances. He’s been especially dominant since returning from the injured list on May 5th, as he has allowed two runs across 10 appearances on 7 hits with 18 strikeouts to 5 walks. 

Naturally, whenever a trade acquisition has been this good with a new team, the idea of a contract extension will inevitably be brought up. Duran is currently under team control via arbitration through the 2027 season and will be eligible for free agency at age 30. He is making $7.5M this season, a nice increase from the $4M he made in 2025. An extension is at least partially on Duran’s mind, as he declined an invitation to pitch in the World Baseball Classic due to his lack of long-term security. 

So what would a Duran extension look like? A few recent reliever deals may help paint a picture. Edwin Diaz signed a five year, $103M deal with the Mets prior to 2023 and opted out of the final two years of the deal to hit free agency last offseason. That’s when he agreed to a new three-year deal with the Dodgers worth $69M. That Dodgers deal effectively added an extra year to his original Mets deal and an additional $31M, bringing the total value to $134M over six years for an estimated average annual value of $22M. Josh Hader signed a five year, $95M contract with the Astros prior to 2024 that will pay him an estimated $19M a season. Diaz was 29 when he signed his original deal with the Mets and was 32 when he signed his new deal with the Dodgers while Hader was 30 when he signed with the Astros. 

Using those two as a barometer, and assuming Duran continues on his current pace, we can expect that a Jhoan Duran contract extension would cost at least $20M a season and be around five years in length. A five year, $100M+ deal for a reliever may seem terrifying, but that is now the going rate for closers of Duran’s caliber. If the Phillies want to lock up Duran and officially make him a part of their future pitching core with Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo, it will behoove them to move sooner rather than later before the closer market balloons again. That is before even factoring in the unknown status of MLB’s financial system in the next CBA.

So, should the Phillies begin negotiations with Jhoan Duran over a contract extension? If so, what contract would you offer? Or should they let him play out his current team control and address it later?