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The weekend here here, as is a fresh set of games filled with a ton of nuke missile opportunities!
My MLB player props are backing a couple of smaller names to go deep in my favorite home run predictions for Friday, June 26.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
| +578 | |
| +640 | |
| +640 | |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +35522 |
Home run pick: Travis Bazzana (+578)
Cleveland Guardians rookie second baseman Travis Bazzana has been one of the few bright spots in this lineup as of late, owning a .769 SLG and a 1.202 OPS, while generating a 45% hard-hit rate and a 15% barrel rate over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.
The young Aussie draws Seattle Mariners right-hander Luis Castillo, whose entire pitch mix is valued below league average, per FanGraphs. Bazzana owns a 68.5% arsenal coverage against Castillo’s full mix.
Castillo is nearly 50% fastballs, a pitch type the young second baseman has handled well this season, posting a .921 OPS while generating nearly a 42% hard-hit rate.
Beyond the below-average arsenal, Castillo has been getting tagged by left-handed hitters on the road, allowing a 71.4% elevation rate and a 43.7% hard-hit rate. Over his last 60 lefties faced, opponents have produced a 48% hard-hit rate, a 12% barrel rate, a 66% elevation rate, along with a .490 xSLG and .357 xwOBA.
For those who read my MLB player props for today, we are also on Kyle Manzardo to leave the yard as well.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CLEG, SEAM
Home run pick: TJ Rumfield (+640)
Colorado Rockies first baseman TJ Rumfield enters Friday night with not only an elite rating on Batters-Box, but also a 76% arsenal coverage against Twins right hander Taj Bradley.
Rumfield has been on fire lately, posting a .692 SLG, 1.092 OPS, .365 ISO, and just a 13% strikeout rate over his last 60 at bats against right-handed pitching.
The Twins right hander, on the other hand, has been getting torched by left-handed hitters.
Over the last 30 lefties he has faced, opponents are generating a 60% hard-hit rate, 25% barrel rate, and 75% elevation rate.
Even if you zoom out to the last 60 left-handed hitters, the numbers are nearly identical, with opponents owning a .708 xSLG and .418 xwOBA. Looking at his last three starts overall, Bradley owns a 6.19 xERA while allowing a 54% hard-hit rate and 16% barrel rate to opposing hitters.
This should be a fun one. I fully expect Rumfield to produce something above 105 mph off the bat this evening, whether it stays inside the ballpark, leaves it, or ends up in someone's glove.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MNNT, COLR
Home run pick: Owen Caissie (+640)
Miami Marlins outfielder Owen Caissie has been on an absolute tear and tonight, he draws St. Louis Cardinals right hander Michael McGreevy.
The young slugger owns 74% arsenal coverage against McGreevy's entire pitch mix. As of late, Caissie has been eyeing up everything. Over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Caissie has produced a 55.6% hard-hit rate, 27.8% barrel rate, .430 wOBA, .679 SLG, and a 1.012 OPS.
McGreevy has had some issues against lefties this season, posting a 5.67 xERA and just a 10% strikeout rate over the last 60 left-handed batters he has faced. During that stretch, lefties have posted a .358 xBA, .569 xSLG, and .382 xwOBA against him.
It is going to be a sweaty one with Caissie hitting toward the bottom of the order, but he has been seeing the ball extremely well, consistently producing loud contact. McGreevy has also been allowing plenty of hard contact, with opponents elevating the baseball against him.
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CARD, MIAM
- HR picks: 65-219, +17.10 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Bet Now +35522 | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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