The Mets' fortunes have swung wildly over the last four seasons, taking their fans on a roller coaster ride of emotions. 

In 2022, the team was dominant until it wasn't, faltering just enough late to squander the NL East title before bowing out with a whimper in the Wild Card Series at Citi Field after winning 101 games. 

The 2023 squad struggled to the point where there was a midseason sell-off, with Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander among those shipped out.

In 2024, the Mets went on a somewhat miraculous run to the NLCS, sneaking into the playoffs before beating the Brewers in the Wild Card Series, vanquishing the Phillies in the NLDS, and ultimately falling to the mighty Dodgers in the NLCS.

Then came 2025, when New York went from having the best record in baseball on June 12 to out of the playoffs, after a slow burn of a collapse that culminated with them being eliminated on the final day of the season because they couldn't beat the Marlins

It's possible the Mets would've broken up their core even if the 2025 club snuck into the postseason, but their clear flaws and ultimate failure helped give president of baseball operations David Stearns cover to truly transform the roster -- putting his stamp on it in the process. 

With the dust settled, Pete Alonso, Edwin Diaz, Brandon Nimmo, and Jeff McNeil are no longer in New York.

The new faces include Freddy Peralta, Bo Bichette, Devin Williams, Jorge Polanco, Luis Robert Jr., and Marcus Semien.

Stearns adding Peralta, Bichette, and Robert late in the offseason gave a serious jolt to a team that was very much incomplete until their arrivals. And, to this writer, resulted in the 2026 Mets having a better roster than the one they opened the 2025 season with. 

How will that play out on the field?

Here is our preview and prediction for the 2026 season...

What the Mets have going for them

By adding a legitimate top-of-the-rotation arm in Peralta and with Nolan McLean set for a full year in the big league rotation after a late-season cameo in 2025, New York's starting staff is in strong shape at the top.

There are some question marks in the middle and back end, including the health/effectiveness of Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea (who will start the season in a piggyback role). But Senga's stuff was eye-opening in spring training, with his fastball regularly hitting the high-90s. Meanwhile, Clay Holmes and David Peterson should again be solid contributors.

What could help set the 2026 rotation apart from the 2025 one that faltered badly is the quality depth, which includes Christian Scott, Jonah Tong, and Jack Wenninger, and could eventually include Jonathan Santucci. 

Stearns said shortly after the 2025 campaign ended that he wasn't aggressive enough in addressing the rotation's shortcomings during the season, so it shouldn't be a surprise if he turns to one of New York's intriguing depth options quickly should someone in the majors falter. 

The offense should be formidable, though a bit different without Alonso's game-changing power.

However, while the Mets might not hit as many homers as they did in 2025, they should be better when it comes to making contact (with Bichette and Polanco helping to lead the way there).

A potential top-four of Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, Bichette, and Polanco could give opposing pitchers fits. And while the rest of the lineup isn't as established, both Brett Baty (111 OPS+ in 2025) and Francisco Alvarez (122 OPS+ in 2025) are coming off career years. 

A wild card is Carson Benge, who looked the part in spring training and will likely be eased in by hitting in the bottom of the lineup.

The Mets should also be better defensively, due in large part to Gold Glover Semien at second base and Gold Glover Robert in center field.

Yes, Polanco is learning first base and Bichette is learning third base. 

In the case of Bichette, he's a tireless worker and just the latest shortstop to make the transition to third. As far as Polanco, he is a former shortstop and has been getting acclimated to his new position since late last season. He's also replacing Alonso, who was near the bottom of the league last season when it came to both range and arm strength. 

If there's one area of the roster that is a bit of a question mark, it's the bullpen.

Without Diaz, it will be Williams closing games. He's coming off a relatively down 2025, but his underlying metrics and stuff last season suggest his struggles were fluky.

Helping anchor the back end of the 'pen will be Luke Weaver and Brooks Raley, and the return of A.J. Minter (perhaps in the beginning of May) should be a big help.

Still, it feels like the relief corps might be one late-inning arm short. Maybe that arm arrives in the form of hard-throwing prospect Ryan Lambert sooner rather than later.

The Mets will make the playoffs if...

New York has all the pieces to not only make the postseason, but win a tough NL East over the Phillies and Braves. 

The prediction here is that the Braves will rebound after a rough 2025, but will be held back a bit by their injury-riddled rotation. When it comes to the Phillies, their hopes could hinge on the health of Zack Wheeler, who is working his way back from thoracic outlet surgery.

Getting back to the Mets, it's easy to envision their starting rotation being a strength, especially at the top. If it is, the wins should follow. 

Meanwhile, the offense should be very good, and could go up a notch if Robert finds his stroke and/or Benge makes an immediate impact. 

The Mets will also be in very strong position if their top arms in Triple-A excel and force their way up, with two of them -- Tong and Scott -- having tantalizing upside.

The Mets will miss the playoffs if...

For a team like the 2026 Mets that has undergone so many changes, it's always possible things simply don't mesh.

Injuries could also play a factor. Even this early, it's fair to keep an eye on the diminished velocity of Manaea. 

Beyond that, while McLean has some of the best stuff in the league, a lot is being put on him to help lead the rotation this soon. A scenario exists where he doesn't perform quite as well as expected, which would put a crimp in the rotation.

Then there's the bullpen, which seems a bit light and is relying on a bounce back from Williams. 

In a National League that should have the Mets, Phillies, Braves, Cubs, Reds, Brewers, Dodgers, Padres, and others fighting for six playoff spots, some good teams will miss out. 

Final record and playoff prediction

93-69
First place in NL East

The Mets will finish with the second-best record in the NL (behind the Dodgers), earning a bye to the NLDS.

In the NLDS, New York will defeat the Cubs.

In the NLCS, the Mets will beat the Padres.

New York's run will come to an end in the World Series, where they'll fall to the Mariners.

The lab is first and foremost a place where we get to learn more about baseball. As much as I would love to pass myself off as an expert in all things, that would be the height of hubris and would deprive all of us the opportunity to avail ourselves of genuine expertise. As most of you know, Jimmy Price has been contributing here at the Crawfish Boxes for some time. He also has his individual venture called Astros Future. I wanted to learn more about the process of evaluating younger players and how statistics are used to predict which minor leaguers will make it and which ones won’t. Jimmy seemed like the perfect resource to tap into.

The Crawfish Boxes: Most dedicated fans know about the five tools. Has there ever been consideration of adding plate discipline as a sixth tool or should it be folded into the hit tool?

Jimmy Price: Great question. I think it is built into the hit tool right now. If a guy has big power but poor pitch selection, his hit tool will falter. But if someone has great plate discipline and selection, their hit tool could still fall if they don’t make enough contact. I love the idea of rating on just plate discipline.

TCB: As a scouting expert, how do you integrate in person scouting accounts with statistical or empirical evidence?

JP:  Definitely no expert here.. but in person you get to see more and hear more. The sound of the bat, pitches, etc. You get a better feel for movement defensively. I think it’s important to look at both. What you see in person and what the statistics say.

TCB: As someone that focuses on minors and amateur baseball, which numbers do you trust the most in predicting future success?

JP: A few numbers I like to look at… for pitchers, I like to look at BAA. We see prospects have poor command but that is something that can be improved. If your pitches are hard to square up, that’s a good trait to have. For hitters, I’m a big fan of plate discipline. I like to look at BB/SO ratio but then look at their swinging strike percentage. Plate discipline is good but when you decide to swing, you have to be able to make contact. 

TCB: The current regime seems to be collecting toolsy guys that have some swing and miss issues. Is this by design or is it a function of picking lower in the first round and limited bonus pool money?

JP:  I think this might just be the preference for Dana Brown and his crew. Power is hard to teach but I am sure the Astros feel with some tweaks they can make adjustments to help prospects make more contact, or make better swing decisions. Raw tools are a gift that can’t be replicated.

TCB: Who are three or four names you are excited to see this year in the Houston system?

JP:  I would start with Cole Hertzler. I think he is a breakout candidate and may win pitcher of the year in the system. Anthony Huezo is another who had a solid 2025 season and will now be a full-season player. Xavier Neyens will get some actual in-game action which will be great to watch. Lastly I would say Ethan Frey. Great numbers last year and I think he has a chance to be a fast riser. 

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I definitely want to thank Jimmy for joining us here In The Lab. It probably won’t be the last time we tap into him. I know it is shameless cross promotion, but this is an important year for the Astros in terms of their minor league system. The Astros received an extra pick because Hunter Brown finished in the top three in the Cy Young vote and they received a compensation pick because Framber Valdez signed with the Detroit Tigers. Those extra picks also bring extra bonus pool money that will give the Astros some flexibility in signing their draftees. As we get closer to June, make sure to keep tabs on what Jimmy is doing so that you can be plugged into the Astros draft.

While it is certainly common for players to play for multiple franchises in their career, more often than not, they are generally associated with one team. In the case of today’s birthday boy, that association is not with the Yankees. Lee Mazzili played 14 seasons in the majors, less than one of which came with the Yankees, but he did put together some good runs among the game’s best and later came back to coach.

Mazzilli celebrates his 71st birthday on Wednesday (no doubt delighted that it coincides with Opening Day), and though he is not necessarily remembered for his time in pinstripes, the former All-Star is the subject of today’s entry into the series. A long-time big league contributor and a World Series winner, Mazzili’s career is certainly worth recognizing.

Lee Louis Mazzilli
Born: March 25, 1955 (New York, NY)
Yankees Tenure: 1982 (also coached 2000-03, 2006)

Lee Mazzilli was a New Yorker through and through. He was born there, he was drafted out of Abraham Lincoln High School in Brooklyn, and is most known for his time with the Mets, while also, of course, dabbling with the Yankees.

He was selected by the Mets in the 1973 Draft, who had enough interest to take him in the first round, with the 14th overall pick. Three years later, Mazzilli was making his MLB debut with the ’76 squad. Although his 24 games that season weren’t anything to write home about, it was the beginning of a decade-and-a-half run in the Majors for Mazzilli, much of which would come with the team that drafted him.

The 22-year-old switch-hitter got his first chance at a starting job in 1977, taking the opportunity given to him by new player/manager Joe Torre and running with it. His production with the bat was forgettable, but he provided solid value as the Mets’ everyday centerfielder. A year later, Mazzilli would begin playing the best baseball of his career and saw his national profile grow — assisted by some natural good looks, to boot. It was just a shame for him that his prime came when the Mets were downright lousy.

From 1978 to 1980, Mazzilli put up three seasons of legitimate All-Star level play while manning one of the more important positions on the diamond. In each of those seasons, the budding star posted a 123 or better OPS+, hit at least fifteen homers, while slashing a combined .286/.374/.437. ‘79 would prove to be the best season of his career, as he posted career-bests with a 137 wRC+ and 4.7 fWAR, as he was elected to his lone All-Star team.

1981 saw a downturn for Mazzilli, as he played in just 95 games due to injury trouble, and when he was on the field, he produced at a below-average rate with the bat. Just before the start of the ’82 campaign, the Mets had decided it was time to move on, as they shipped him off in a trade to the Rangers. He played in 58 games, at roughly the same disappointing level he just had with the Mets, before being traded once again, this time to the Yankees in exchange for former fan favorite Bucky Dent.

Thus began Mazzilli’s Yankees run, though it would not be a particularly long or memorable run. He amassed 144 plate appearances with the Bombers, doing a nice job with them, homering six times and hitting to the tune of a respectable (and much improved) 113 OPS+. Those “Bronx Burner” Yankees were doomed from the jump however, cycling through three managers and finishing under .500 despite making it to Game 6 of the World Series the previous year. That would be the end of Mazzilli’s time playing in the Bronx, as he was traded to the Pirates in December, though not the end of his Yankee story entirely.

Mazzilli spent three decent seasons with Pittsburgh from 1983-85, before being released mid-season in 1986. it was a stretch that also included involvement in a cocaine-related controversy and trial. What likely seemed like a curse quickly turned into a blessing, as he was picked back up by the Mets and played some terrific baseball down the stretch. During the revitalization, he even added a pair of hits in five at-bats during the Mets’ victorious World Series that season. Mazzilli had endured some tough teams, but he was a champion at last.

Mazzili would play the next two seasons in Queens, to highly-varying degrees of success, with the ’88 season showing serious signs of decline. 1989 was ultimately the final season of his playing career, a year in which he played some solid ball split between time with the Mets and a final stop with the Blue Jays.

The above single capped off an up-and-down, but nonetheless impressive 14-year run in the majors. Mazzilli retired with 1,068 in his career, including 191 doubles and 93 homers, as well as 197 stolen bases.

Mazzilli had a few jobs away from baseball in the early 1990s, even appearing in an Off-Broadway show, Tony ’n’ Tina’s Wedding. But the game—and more specifically his old Mets skipper Joe Torre—called him back. Torre had just managed the Yankees to a World Series title in his first season and had the pull to recommend Mazzilli for a minor-league managerial opening in 1997. He accepted and spent two years running High-A Tampa and one with Double-A Norwich.

Soon, Mazzilli was on his way to join the big-league staff, as first-base coach José Cardenal departed Torre’s staff after 1999 due in part to a contract dispute. So Mazzilli took over at first and stayed in the position from 2000 to 2003, winning a World Series over his old Mets in that first year.

Mazzilli became a familiar face to young fans watching the dynasty’s final years of World Series glory, but he’d also built a name for himself as a possible managerial candidate. The Orioles chose him for the job in 2004, but his MLB managerial career lasted only a year and a half. Following a sub-.500 debut, Baltimore had an out-of-nowhere surge to 42-28 at the start of ’05, leading the AL East over the Yankees and Red Sox. From there, they went into an absolute tailspin, going 9-28 to tumble back to irrelevance. Mazzilli was fired on August 3rd after the O’s dropped their eighth in a row.

Mazzilli returned as the bench coach for Torre’s Yankees in 2006, only to be replaced the next year when the Yankees decided to hire Kevin Long as hitting coach and slide Mattingly to Torre’s side on the bench. He’s since worked for SNY and remained a presence in the New York sports scene, making some Old-Timers’ Day appearances as well. Mazzilli will be honored by the Mets in 2026, as he was voted into their most recent Hall of Fame class.

Although Mazzilli’s overall time with the Yankees was brief, his continued his involvement with the club went well beyond his playing days. Mazzilli was, at times, a very good big-league player, and though he won’t be remembered primarily as a Yankee, he certainly made his mark as a New York City native.

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See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

Astros fans, the wait is finally over. The long offseason has come to an end, and with it arrives something that never goes out of style, hope.

As Opening Day approaches, there’s a noticeable shift in the air. Months of dissecting roster flaws, questioning decisions, and wondering whether this team has done enough suddenly give way to something far more powerful: belief. It’s the annual reset button that baseball provides, where every team starts fresh and every fan dares to dream again.

Despite all the concerns that have been raised about this roster, the start of the season flips a switch. Suddenly, it’s easy to envision this lineup as a force, one capable of producing runs in bunches and carrying the team through tough stretches. There’s renewed confidence that the starting rotation, even with its heavy right-handed lean, can go deep into games and deliver consistent results.

In many ways, the Astros enter this season in a different and somewhat refreshing position. For years, they’ve been the hunted—the team every opponent circled on the calendar. Now, they find themselves among the hunters in the American League. The spotlight isn’t quite as harsh. The expectations, while still present, aren’t suffocating. Doubters and prognosticators have placed them squarely in the middle of the pack, creating an opportunity to exceed expectations rather than merely meet them.

That shift could prove valuable. Without a constant target on their backs, the Astros can focus on simply playing their game. And if they find success early, the narrative can quickly change, from overlooked contender to rising force.

No, this team may not match the dominance of the 2019 roster. But it doesn’t have to. What it does have is enough talent to compete, enough to stay in the mix for a playoff spot and potentially challenge for another division title. This isn’t a rebuilding club or a team destined for 100 losses. Far from it. With a solid foundation already in place, even a couple of key moves by general manager Dana Brown between now and the trade deadline could elevate this group into one of the better teams in baseball.

That’s the beauty of the sport. That’s why baseball endures. It offers something simple yet powerful: hope. The belief that, no matter the questions or uncertainties, there’s always a chance this could be the year.

And now, with first pitch drawing near, that feeling is back where it belongs.

As Thursday afternoon approaches, the excitement builds. The rhythms of daily baseball life return, from checking lineups, to following box scores, tuning in to broadcasts, and living and breathing every pitch. It’s a marathon, not a sprint, but it’s one fans are more than ready to run.

The wait is over, Houston.

It’s time to play ball.

Sweet 16 is in the air in Houston.  

It’s with the Houston Cougars at Toyota Center.

It’s with Jose Altuve stepping into the batter’s box on Opening Day as he embarks upon his 16th year. Many fans will recall his homer on Opening Day five years ago against the A’s.

Of course, every organizational great is rightfully judged by the likes of Craig Biggio, who would represent the city for two decades. In the icon’s 16th campaign, Biggio would post respectable numbers with 14 homers and 55 RBI, though the Astros would fall a game short of winning the old NL Central to the Chicago Cubs.

Speaking of Chicago, Ryne Sandberg was a model of consistency. His 16th season would be his last in the majors.    One wonders what Ryno’s final career totals would’ve been had the last several weeks of the 1994 season and all of 1995 not been wiped out from the lockout.   

Even more Hall of Famer second basemen would patrol the heart of the diamond in the Midwest, with careers of at least 16 years.

By year 16, Joe Morgan was in sharp decline. One of the main cogs of the Big Red Machine in Cincinnati was a shell of his former shelf by 1978, producing 57 less RBI than his 76′ campaign.    

Lou Whitaker, separated from Morgan by some 250 miles in Motown, had a respectable 19 HR and 71 RBI in his 16th season with the Tigers.    Sweet Lou played his entire 19-year career with Detroit, playing 1,918 games together with Alan Trammell.     

Roberto Alomar collected Gold Gloves like Super Mario collects gold coins. An all-around player in his career, there was a three-year span in which Alomar would steal 157 bases.   Along the way, he also played for seven clubs.   If you can name all seven teams he played for, you’re better than most. In his 16th season, he had diminished power and speed, but he still had some decent at bats.

Robinson Cano’s 16th campaign was a nightmare. He’d appear in only 49 games, as suspensions would rain down for PED’s.

When #27 comes to the plate, take a moment to recognize his place among the greats, even at this stage of his amazing career. One day, he’ll join many of them in Cooperstown.

Meet the Mets

The Mets will be wearing a memorial patch on their jerseys for Davey Johnson this season.

The New York Transit Museum will be running a vintage 7 Line train to Mets-Willet Point Thursday morning in honor of Opening Day.

Carson Benge had an excited (and colorful) reaction to being called up to the major league roster.

Mike Puma of the New York Post has predicted that the Mets will triumph over the Mariners in this year’s World Series, and hopefully he has the same success as last season’s predictions.

In fact, the whole New York Post staff made their various 2026 predictions.

The SNY staff made their own predictions for 2026 playoff teams, postseason results, and more.

Laura Albanese paid tribute to her love of baseball, which is deeper than the usual reasons, and graded the Mets’ positions ahead of the start of the season.

Freddy Peralta might be the glue guy the Mets have desperately needed.

A few years ago, Brooks Raley would’ve never believed New York to be his long-term home, but he enters 2026 as the longest-tenured Mets reliever.

After years of criticism about paying too much homage to the former Brooklyn Dodgers and not enough to the history of the team it homes, Citi Field has finally come into its own as the home of the New York Mets.

Around the National League East

The Braves have already run into a roster issue before the season has even started: they might have run the well dry on major league pitching before a single regular season game has been played.

The Marlins have signed outfielder Austin Slater to a major league contract.

The Yankees traded infielder Zack Short to the Nationals for cash.

Around Major League Baseball

After praising employees for speaking up about misconduct, the Detroit Tigers forced a whistleblower out of the organization.

ESPN has a full 2026 offseason chaos guide, to help fans prepare ahead of the start of the season.

The Brewers have traded minor league pitcher K.C. Hunt to the Rays for pitcher Jake Woodford.

Former Met Joey Lucchesi has signed with the Angels and is expected to make their roster.

The new rules for first and third-base coaches has them standing potentially in harm’s way.

The Yankees have finalized their Opening Day roster.

Pete Crow-Armstrong has officially signed a six-year, $115 million extension with the Cubs, buying out the rest of his years of team control and then some.

The so-called “robot umps” are coming, and they’re cool, but they’re certainly not perfect.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

The staff here at Amazin’ Avenue made some bold predictions for the upcoming 2026 season.

Linda Surovich wrote about the potential of Luke Weaver to dominate in the Mets’ remade bullpen this season.

Linus Lawrence brought us the Final Four of Mets Madness and previewed the championship matchup.

Linus also asked the question most Mets fans are worrying about in the bullpen: which Devin Williams is the one the Mets signed to a three-year deal this offseason?

Brian Salvatore previewed Brooks Raley’s 2026 season.

This Date in Mets History

Today is the birthday of two well-known Mets, one whose Mets tenure was famous and another’s whose tenure was more infamous.

With the 2026 coming up on us quickly, let’s have our prediction thread.

1. Give us your guess for the winners in each division.

2. Wild Card teams?

3. Who makes it to the World Series, and who wins?

4. Who gets the major awards in each league? MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year?

5. Pick a breakout Blue Jays player of the year.

6. Who is the biggest disappointment (can be a team or player)?

7. How many Blue Jays wins?

8. Who will be the Jays MVP and Best Pitcher?

And if you want to make any other predictions.

Over a career spanning 12 seasons, Miguel Rojas has gone from an overlooked bench player in 2014 to hitting one of, if not, the most important home runs in Dodgers history.

Rojas’ legacy as a Dodger icon is now cemented, his ninth inning home run against Jeff Hoffman in Game 7 will be remembered for generations, and he can end his career knowing that his name will be attached to a pair of the most triumphant plays in baseball history. As Rojas enters the 13th and final season of his playing career, he has a lot to be grateful for.

Rojas spoke with Jack Oliver of Jomboy Media, known on social media as Jolly Olive, during the early parts of spring training as to how the veteran infielder feels about his final season. Rojas noted that he is eager to get every opportunity to play, not wanting to have his playing time reduced solely because of his age.

“This year, I have a different perspective, because I’m not afraid to empty the tank anymore. I’m going to have a conversation with Doc, and I’m going to tell him not to be afraid to put me in spots that he always kind of took care for me in the past… I’m going to tell him, ‘Hey, use me as much as you can. Don’t feel bad because I’m one of the veterans…’ I want to take every single opportunity, every single at-bat that I can, and help the team in any capacity.”

Rojas is coming off a remarkable spring where he slashed .362/.380/.532 with two home runs and eight RBI over 48 plate appearances, and with the recent demotion of Hyeseong Kim to Triple-A, he is the most likely candidate to get the starting nod at second base on Thursday.

Links

From one Japanese right-hander on the mound on Monday to another on Tuesday, Shohei Ohtani was masterful against his old team, pitching into the fifth inning while striking out 11 hitters in the Dodgers’ 3-0 loss to the Angels.

After his first full offseason to recover on both sides with the Dodgers, the benchmark for a healthy season is 25 starts for the two-way superstar, notes Courtney Hollman of MLB.com. Should he stay healthy as a part of a six-man rotation, he’s on pace to make 27 starts.

“I do see that as an important benchmark as a starting pitcher,” Ohtani said following his Arizona debut. “Ideally in a situation where everybody makes 25 starts. That’s the ideal situation.”

To little surprise, Ohtani was named as the early season favorite to win his third consecutive NL MVP award by Theo DeRosa of MLB.com.

Max Ralph of MLB.com writes about Kyle Tucker getting used to how the Dodgers celebrate hits, needing a quick 101 lesson from Miguel Rojas on the “hip-lock” celebration.

The Detroit Tigers have generally maintained a policy of not playing any of their prep draft picks until the following year, and so the Spring Breakout games each spring have become a sort of coming out party for the next wave of prospects each March. This year we saw Jordan Yost, Michael Oliveto, and Cris Rodriguez in the teenagers’ first televised showcase. Of course, Yost had already announced himself by popping over to Tampa to join the Tigers for a game and crunching a grand slam in his first at-bat. 2024 first rounder Bryce Rainer set a bit of a precedent with a jaw dropping pro debut in the 2025 Spring Breakout game. An injury spoiled much of his pro debut campaign at Single-A Lakeland, but Rainer is healthy and ready to take over as the Tigers’ top prospect by season’s end.

Rainer starred in high school for Harvard-Westlake HS in North Hollywood. He was actually tracking more like a good pitching prospect who was also a solid shortstop with a cannon hanging from his right shoulder until his junior year when the bat perked up. By his senior year, Rainer was showing off big-time power and much improved contact ability through some swing changes and additional muscle. The Tigers were suitably impressed and happy to sign Rainer for $5,797,500, just slightly overslot as the 11th overall pick in the draft. That was two spots after the Pirates took Konnor Griffin, indicating that often it’s top the top five spots that end up with the most talented player in a draft.

What we knew about Rainer at the time was that he had some developing plate discipline, and potentially plus raw power. He could run, and while not the most athletic shortstop around, his 80 grade arm helped him play a step further back than most to give himself an extra beat on balls in play, and easily make up for it by throwing lasers across the diamond to first base. There were some questions about his contact ability, and some wondered if he’d really add that much raw power to his profile in his late teens and early 20’s, but overall the pick was well regarded. The Tigers strategy of taking athletic, up the middle prep hitters in the first round continues to pay dividends, as Rainer immediately silenced one of those questions.

The first plate appearance we ever saw from Rainer ended with a 113 mph line drive rocket the opposite way for a single. That was his first at-bat in a “real” game since high school. And that at-bat was a sign of things to come as Rainer destroyed fastballs and showed off near 70 grade raw power at times. Combined with his long levers and opposite field tendencies, Corey Seager comparisons became very popular, very quickly in prospect circles.

Even better, Rainer’s agility and footwork were rapidly improved from his high school days. He stalked the left side of the infield making all the plays and showing good reactions and softer hands than expected around second base. And as always, he could fire 90+ mph seeds to first base to record outs even when ranging far in the hole.

It only took a few weeks until Single-A hitters stopped throwing him fastballs over the plate and began dumping heavy amounts of breaking and offspeed in for strikes and then trying to get him to expand the zone when he saw a heater. This is a strategy MLB pitchers are built to execute, but at the Single-A level they weren’t qualified. Of course, Rainer wasn’t yet qualified either. For a week or two, he just started walking a lot more. Eventually, the 19-year-old ultimately couldn’t resist chasing more close pitches as he saw less and less fastballs to hit.

The cat and mouse game didn’t get time to play out. On June 3, Rainer separated his right shoulder diving back to first base on a pickoff play. Technique there might be something the Tigers want to emphasize to prep rookies a little more as both Colt Keith and Carson Rucker suffered similar injuries early in their pro careers. In both cases, throwing velocity took years to return after they rehabbed the shoulder. Rainer and the Tigers probably wisely elected for a surgical repair, and while Rainer has been limited to a DH role in minor league camp, reports that his arm strength has returned have been positive so far.

Rainer is a pretty good sized shortstop, standing 6’3” and probably weighing in a good 15 pounds of muscle more than his listed 195 pounds. He hits from a modest crouch with a high left elbow, and he maintains that elbow as he drops his hands and stretches back to load up before the pitch is released. It’s a bit exaggerated and he probably needs to trim that down to remain quick to high fastballs, but he’s made it work so far, having no issues with velocity in Lakeland. Even with that move, he doesn’t get too steep to the ball and generally has nice natural loft to his swing. The prospect of a plus defensive shortstop with plate discipline, who has posted numerous 113-114 mph balls in play is really tantalizing. He’s still only 20 years old after all and looks even a bit more built this spring in our few looks at him.

The question is the most elemental one of all. Can he translate his good eye for the strike zone into a good eye from breaking and offspeed stuff? He’s had so few at-bats that everyone is just guessing right now, and we’ll just have to see how that plays out over the next few seasons. Based on his batspeed and command of the strike zone, his chances seem pretty good, but that has to be proven. Still, this is an extremely exciting player, and once McGonigle and Clark graduate, Rainer is going to do just fine as the Tigers’ top prospect. Hopefully he has a healthy season and the arm strength is all the way back. If so, we’ll have a better idea of his full potential as a hitter by season’s end.

Look for Rainer to start the season in West Michigan. Jordan Yost will take the shortstop reps in Lakeland, and Rainer showed enough already to promote him to High-A despite not getting nearly as many reps as hoped in his pro debut. Facing a better brand of college pitchers, there may be some struggles early on, but as long as he’s mashing again in the second half, everything will be on track for him to push to Double-A in 2027, and perhaps debut late that year or more likely in 2028 when he’ll be closing in on his 23rd birthday.

It’s here, it’s here! Opening Day is upon us, and excluding the All-Star Break pause, we won’t have to deal with another baseball-free day until November. It may just be spring, but the Boys of Summer are back, and it’s time to get excited because starting today, all the stats matter. It’s the best day of the year!

Before we get into all the excitement of the regular season, we also wanted to touch on one of the sweetest stories from the World Baseball Classic. Ondrej Satoria, the Czech pitcher who defied the odds and toppled some of the best batters in baseball, made waves especially because he wasn’t even a full-time athlete: he’s an electrician. The everyman story captured peoples’ attention and made him a bit of a hero to audiences, and he’s finally speaking about the experience. When he spoke about his final outing against Team Japan, he said:

“In my eyes, it’s as valuable as the Olympics, because it’s only once every four years. It’s a fully professional world championship. The team has to qualify, and there you get to face players you usually only watch on TV, which is the most magical thing for us. We can shake hands with them on the field, and for us amateurs, that’s the best part.”

He also spoke specifically about striking out Shohei Ohtani, perhaps the most famous player in the world:

“It changed my life quite a bit, because it got me noticed, and it also put Czech baseball on the map. That’s really thanks to this. Of course, it’s something I’ll always remember fondly. I’m glad it’s on video, so if anyone ever doubts it, I can prove it. I have the ball from that strikeout on my shelf at home. But still, the most important thing for me is the medal from the European Championship, which I always carry with me… I wouldn’t call myself a legend, but unfortunately, everyone else does. I guess I just have to accept it.”

It was a really sweet interview, and a reminder of the importance of an event like the World Baseball Classic which can create excitement about baseball in countries where it isn’t as popular. Read more here.

Let’s get into the rest of today’s news!

• Davy Andrews reports that the Phillies are really committed to Crisopher Sanchez, extending his extension.
• A quick explainer on the Opening Night game on Netflix, and how to watch the game. (MLB)
• Theo DeRosa tries to predict who will take home the big awards of 2026.
• Ryan Phillips rounds up nine players who are poised to be the next big thing in baseball.
• Mound visits usually aren’t heartwarming, but this Skip Schumaker trip to the bump was a Spring Training highlight. Story by Stephen Douglas.
• Frank Thomas is suing the Chicago White Sox over the unauthorized use of his likeness. Story by Dan Hajducky.
• Brittany Ghiroli shares the story of a whistleblower within the Tigers’ organization being dismissed for calling out the very workplace concerns the team expressed wanting to hear about. (The Athletic subscription required.)
• Nothing to worry about here from a starting pitcher…

Roki Sasaki's line before he was pulled in the first inning tonight:

0.0 IP, 0 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 0 K on 30 pitches pic.twitter.com/bXmT3rIk6U

— Talkin' Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) March 24, 2026

• Ben Clemens looks at the positional power rankings for starting pitchers.
• Meanwhile, Dan Szymborksi looks at potential boom and bust candidates for starters in 2026.
• David Adler looks at the Spring Training stats that actually matter.
• Sarah Langs shares which players could be hitting major milestones this coming season.
• Karl Rasmussen ranks all 30 starting rotations.
• Kyle Koster looks at which teams are spending the most, and which players are earning the biggest paydays.
• Jayson Stark wonders how much we should care about how imperfect robot umpires are. (The Athletic subscription required.)
• Quite possibly the strangest way he could have phrased this question.

I’ve watched this 10 times and it gets funnier every time pic.twitter.com/TQGzg2s4FJ

— greg (@greg16676935420) March 23, 2026

• Michael Baumann wonders if the Braves are finally running out of pitchers.
• Sam Dykstra spotlights hot prospect Kevin McGonigle, who had made the Opening Day roster for the Detroit Tigers.
• Ryan Phillips explains why the Tigers got it right by including McGoningle on their Opening Day roster.
• A Mets’ announcer shares his disappointment about missing the postseason. Story by Jimmy Traina.
• Ranking all 30 teams going into the 2026 season. (ESPN)
• Evan Drellich and Ken Rosenthal share that there are potential risks to base coaches regarding a new rule meant to help eliminate pitch tipping. (The Athletic subscription required.)
• Guess I know what I’m reading next.

Why does pitching look so different today? 🤔
Pitching didn’t just get better. It got engineered.

From “you either have it or you don’t”…to building unhittable stuff.

Inside the Pitching Revolution — with Nolan Ryan, Maddux, Skubal, Skenes, and more.

Unhittable — out… pic.twitter.com/fxdiBzS19l

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 23, 2026

And tomorrow will be a better day than today, Buster. Make it so.

Spring training has finally concluded, the Colorado Rockies roster is set, and the 2026 season officially begins for the club on Friday. With the conclusion of a successful Camp Schaeffer, it seems appropriate to hand out some superlative predictions for the new-look Rockies as we head into the regular season with hopes high and the team looking to leave the 2025 season far in the rearview mirror.

Most Likely to Rebound in 2026: Willi Castro

The only position player free agent the Rockies signed to a major league deal, Willi Castro, projects to be the regular at second base. He’ll get his chances to move around a little bit, but after struggling in a part-time role with the Chicago Cubs to close out the 2025 season, he’s back in a starting role with Colorado and there is optimism.

Castro had an excellent performance in Cactus League play as well as with Team Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic. Castro is a model base runner and could be the epitome of the type of player they hope will take this club to the next level. He isn’t far removed from an All-Star season, and a fresh start in Colorado could get him back to that level of production.

Team Rookie of the Year: T.J. Rumfield

The best “feel-good” story from camp has to be the fact that T.J. Rumfield earned his spot with the Rockies for Opening Day. After having his path blocked in New York, Rumfield came over to the Rockies in a trade and lived up to the opportunity.

He was named the recipient of the Abby Greer Award, an honor bestowed on the Rockies’ spring MVP, and has a chance to do some great things this season. The front office is hoping not to have to rely on rookies out of desperation as they did in 2025, so Rumfield coming into camp and earning his keep is a nice development.

If he can stay on the roster throughout the season and find a way to be a productive member of the lineup, he’ll easily be the Rookie of the Year for the team and perhaps even a candidate for the National League.

Team Cy Young: Kyle Freeland

In a sense, Kyle Freeland earns this early designation by default.

If things go according to plan, there’s a chance none of the three veteran free agents could be on this team beyond the deadline. Ryan Feltner and Chase Dollander have the talent but need to take big steps forward, while other options — including a mix of prospects in Triple-A — are primed for a second-half appearance.

Freeland has been a rock of this rotation for a long while and is entering his 10th season with the Rockies. He is in the final guaranteed year of his contract with a vesting option for 2027 that becomes guaranteed if he tosses 170 innings, so a fantastic year could do a lot for him personally.

Team Reliever of the Year: Zach Agnos

The bullpen will have an interesting mix heading into the season, but one addition that may be able to rise above the rest by season’s end is Zach Agnos. The righty started off strong after his debut in early 2025, but after landing on the bereavement list following the death of his grandfather, whom he was very close to, Agnos struggled to settle himself the rest of the year between the majors and Triple-A.

Refocused and determined, Agnos entered camp with a new pitch and has looked phenomenal on the mound. The Rockies aren’t expected to use much in the way of a standard closer at the start of the season, but Agnos could find himself in some big situations.

Biggest Surprise: Tomoyuki Sugano

When the Rockies signed Tomoyuki Sugano it raised quite a few eyebrows. Why would a team that plays 81 games at Coors Field want to signed an aged arm that led the league in home runs allowed last season? Well, the team valued his experience, his ability to manipulate the ball, and his capabilities of pounding the zone.

Between his start in the WBC and couple of appearances in spring training, Sugano has shown what could make him successful. He knows home runs were an issue last season, and he is entering a difficult environment, but there is a determination and maturity that will enable him to have a solid season with the Rockies, whether it’s for the whole year or just half the season.

Most Likely to be an All-Star: Brenton Doyle

This could easily go to Ezequiel Tovar, but for the sake of variety let’s talk about Brenton Doyle.

After a breakout 2024 campaign, injury and personal tragedy hindered Doyle in 2025. He began to return to form in the latter half of the season, leaving him in a good position to break out further in 2026. Doyle’s defense will always be a calling card but if he bring a consistent approach out the gate and find his power, there is a strong chance he can be a representative for the Rockies at the All-Star Game.

He may not make much headway in the popular vote if he is in a position to do so, but joining the ranks of the many All-Star outfielders in franchise history would be a huge accomplishment.

Breakout Candidate: Kyle Karros

Kyle Karros showed off plenty of what could make him a great player in his brief spell with the big league club last season. Entering spring training, however, he was adamant that no one was going to take the third base job away from him. Making sure he was physically ready for the demand, Karros delivered a standout performance at the plate in Cactus League play. He’s already proven capable of playing at a Gold Glove-caliber level in the field, but if he can settle in offensively at the plate and continue to lace line drives, Karros can be on his way to living up to his goal of being one of the best third baseman in franchise history.

Team MVP: Ezequiel Tovar

A return to form for Ezequiel Tovar would be a huge boon for the Rockies. Injuries plagued him last season, and he never found a rhythm. We saw hints of some of the offensive growth, but things just fell apart in 2025. This year, Tovar delivered a standout performance with Venezeula in the WBC and didn’t seem to miss a beat when he returned to Rockies camp. With a new front office and coaching staff in place, 2026 is the chance for Tovar to finally live up to the lofty expectations that led the team to sign him to a long-term extension and become the superstar they so desperately need.

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Rockies Update from Paul DePodesta | Rockies Newsletter

President of Baseball Operations Paul DePodesta shared a quick message as the regular season gets underway.

Marlins’ ‘Machete,’ Rockies ‘Glizzilla’ tops 2026 new ballpark grub | ESPN.com

A new season means plenty of new food concoctions around the league. The Rockies are introducing a two-foot hot dog and a giant cinnamon roll, and the 9-9-9 challenge is also making its way to Coors Field.

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Our contributors at Brew Crew Ball are excited to get the 2026 season underway after an offseason that saw quite a bit of turnover across the league. Here are our bold predictions and storylines to watch for the Brewers in 2026.

Bold Predictions

Paul Dietrich: The Brewers have a pair of 30/30 players

If I wanted to get extremely bold, I would say three… but I don’t think Christian Yelich has another 30/30 season in him, which he has done only once, in 2019. But: Jackson Chourio has gone 20/20 in each of his first two seasons, and if he makes the kind of jump we all think he can make, it’s definitely in play. The other one would have to be Brice Turang, who so far this spring has given us no reason to believe that the late-season power surge that got him to 18 homers last year was a mirage. Thirty homers is probably a stretch, but that’s what makes the prediction bold… and he’s averaged 36 stolen bases per season as a big leaguer, so that seems doable even if he only had 24 in 2025.

Harrison Freuck: Jacob Misiorowski reaches the 200-strikeout threshold

This isn’t overly bold, especially given how easily Jacob Misiorowski manages to rack up strikeouts, but this prediction would require him to make at least 20 starts (and that’s if he averages 10 strikeouts/game). Last season, he totaled 87 strikeouts in just 66 innings, so at that pace, he’d need to pitch roughly 150 innings. The bold part of this prediction is that Miz’s career-high in innings pitched came last year, when he totaled 129 1/3 innings between Triple-A and MLB. Hitting the 200-strikeout mark would also make him the eighth Brewer since 2021 to reach that threshold (and give the Brewers a 200-strikeout pitcher for the sixth consecutive season).

Dave Gasper: Brice Turang and Jackson Chourio both have 30/30 seasons, finish top 10 in NL MVP voting

The power surge that Turang saw in the second half last season was proof that he was finally able to get his raw power to click in game action. With that knowledge, over a full season, I believe he has a very good chance to reach 30 homers. Turang’s speed is also elite, and with a change in first base coach to Spencer Allen, I imagine stealing bases will be a renewed priority for this team, and Turang should reach 30 steals easily.

Jackson Chourio has gone 20/20 in each of his first two seasons in MLB, but there’s plenty more in the tank. After all, he just turned 22 years old. If not for a hamstring injury last year that took him out for much of August, Chourio likely would have well surpassed his rookie year numbers. I expect with a fully healthy season this year, Chourio can reach 30/30 as well and continue his superstar trajectory. If both he and Turang can do that, they’ll help lift this team to another NL Central title and should receive enough MVP votes to finish in the top 10.

Jason Paczkowski: Brice Turang finishes in the top five for NL MVP

In the award predictions, I said that Turang could finish in the top 10 for NL MVP. Looking at his performance from last year, he should have been in the top 10 anyway. A big factor there is name recognition, and while stats can carry quite a bit, having a reputation can help gain votes. It’s likely part of the reason that Christian Yelich — who finished 12th in the NL MVP vote — finished ahead of Turang last season. If he posts a similar season to last year, he will definitely be in the top 10 this time. If he improves on it, the top five will be within his reach.

Adam Zimmer: Jacob Misiorowski is a top-five NL Cy Young finisher

I’m a big believer in Misiorowski, who has the stuff to eventually win a Cy Young someday. He’s not there yet, particularly given the stiff competition he’ll face in the National League. Still, Misiorowski showed flashes of greatness in an up-and-down season. With former ace Freddy Peralta now in New York, the Brewers will need their new Opening Day starter to serve as a steady option at the front of the rotation. If his command is even slightly improved after an offseason of work with the Brewers’ pitching lab, the sky is the limit for the Miz.

Storylines to Watch

Paul Dietrich: Who is the first blue-chip prospect to break through?

Given that we expect the Brewers to contend this season, it’s a bit strange to call it a transitional year… but it is, in some ways. Luis Rengifo was brought in for one year, as a cadre of exciting infield prospects make their way up the minor league ladder. Joey Ortiz is either going to prove he deserves to start on a good major league team, or he’s going to quickly fall out of the Brewers’ plans. The same goes for Garrett Mitchell, who needs to produce in addition to staying mostly healthy for a full season.

It would not be a shock if the 2027 Brewers had an Opening Day lineup that included Jesús Made, Cooper Pratt, and Jett Williams in place of Rengifo, Ortiz, and Mitchell. My question is whether we see any of those guys this year. Made is probably not going to happen, and Pratt needs to show he can hit at Triple-A. But Williams could be a candidate for the roster if anyone struggles or gets hurt, even if it’s early in the season. And I wouldn’t be surprised if Pratt made it to Milwaukee for his debut sometime late this summer.

Harrison Freuck: Can Milwaukee’s 2025 breakout stars repeat in 2026?

The Brewers won 97 games in 2025 largely on the backs of some previously unsung players. Brice Turang took another big step forward to lead the team with 5.6 bWAR. Quinn Priester and Chad Patrick broke out in the rotation as two of the best pitchers on this team. Andrew Vaughn, who was a star prospect before struggling in the majors with the White Sox, seemed to find his groove in a new place as he was a key part of Milwaukee’s late-season push for the NL Central crown. If those players (and others) can repeat in 2026, this team will have what it takes to claim a fourth consecutive NL Central title.

Dave Gasper: Which starting pitchers ultimately earn job security?

The Brewers have loaded up on starting pitching depth. With everyone healthy, the Brewers have 11 legitimate starting pitching options on the 40-man roster, and that doesn’t even include Aaron Ashby or DL Hall. Jacob Misiorowski is pretty locked in to a spot, as are Brandon Woodruff and Quinn Priester when healthy. Chad Patrick is in a pretty good spot right now, but will that remain the case as his sophomore season goes along? Tobias Myers lost his job pretty quickly last year.

Kyle Harrison and Brandon Sproat appear to have won the early-season spots in the rotation, but will they be able to keep them as the season goes along? Logan Henderson, Robert Gasser, Shane Drohan, Carlos Rodriguez, and Coleman Crow can step in at the first sign of trouble. The Brewers will likely use all of these starting pitchers throughout the year. With so much depth, the cream will rise to the top. Who will that be? Who can stake a more permanent claim on a rotation spot? It will be fascinating to watch.

Jason Paczkowski: Can Andrew Vaughn maintain his 2025 performance?

When the Brewers acquired Andrew Vaughn for Aaron Civale in 2025, it felt like they were just trying to get anything for a disgruntled player. It was entirely possible that Vaughn would have just lingered down in Triple-A for the rest of 2025. However, when Rhys Hoskins went down injured, Vaughn became one of the Brewers’ legends. He went from hitting .189 for the White Sox to hitting .308 for the Brewers. All of his numbers saw dramatic jumps. His biggest moment may have come in NLDS Game 5, where his solo home run put the Brewers ahead for good.

The big question for Vaughn is if he can do it again. The track record with the White Sox wasn’t great, but it was also the White Sox. It’s hard to tell if his struggles were due to playing on a bad team or if he would be struggling regardless of where he played. The Brewers need the 2025 version of him to shine through if they want to hold the division title again in 2026.

Adam Zimmer: Who’s going to play third base?

The majority of the Brewers’ infield is pretty much set. Andrew Vaughn will be the regular first baseman, spelled occasionally by Jake Bauers. Second base is locked down by Brice Turang, and shortstop is Joey Ortiz’s job to lose. After trading last year’s starting third baseman, Caleb Durbin, to the Red Sox, the Brewers didn’t exactly find a clear replacement. Luis Rengifo appears to have the inside track for the job, but if he struggles, the Brewers could turn to fellow offseason acquisition David Hamilton. Given the Brewers’ infield depth in the minor leagues (Jett Williams, Brock Wilken, Cooper Pratt, and even Andrew Fischer), there’s a chance their third baseman down the stretch isn’t currently on the 40-man roster.