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It’s time for another Royals roster projection! We last did this exercise in December of last year. We’ve got double digits of spring training games played now, so the picture has become perhaps a little bit clearer. Certainly, it seems EXCEPTIONALLY unlikely any of those dream lineups I concocted at the end of the piece are going to come to fruition. Alas.

But that doesn’t mean there haven’t been any changes! So here’s the new projection with any changes from the previous projection indicated by italics.

Everyday lineup

SS Bobby Witt Jr.

RF Jac Caglianone

3B Maikel Garcia

1B Vinnie Pasquantino

C Salvador Perez

DH Carter Jensen

LF Isaac Collins

2B Jonathan India

CF Kyle Isbel

It’s the same nine guys as last time, though I did rearrange things a bit. Yes, I admit this looks a little crazy, but stick with me for a minute.

With Bobby doing some leading off in Spring Training and projected to do so for Team USA in the WBC, I think he’s finally going to come around to doing it for the Royals in the regular season. Jac Caglianone is having a monster spring — including laying off a lot of pitches up in the zone, which were something of a kryptonite for him last year — and he’s been batting second a lot. The smart money is that this is just because the Royals want him to get extra ABs before he also heads off to the WBC, but look at all the fun things we can do with R-L arrangements if he takes over as the number two hitter. For what it’s worth, if he can reach his 80th-percentile projections, he could very easily be the team’s second-best hitter and absolutely belong in that spot. Having Maikel batting behind him could help him get more pitches to hit, too.

Listen, it’s not any fun if we only say the most obvious things. So yeah, it’s a little crazy, but I think it just might work.

Bench

DH/OF Starling Marte

OF Lane Thomas

UT Michael Massey

UT Tyler Tolbert

The Royals signed Marte to a Major League deal on Saturday, so he — along with Thomas — is going to be a lock for the bench. This no longer leaves room for a third catcher, so the Royals are just going to have to live on that edge. Michael Massey takes over from Adam Frazier on the bench after a hot spring, and with Frazier choosing to join the Halos. The last spot could go to Nick Loftin instead of Tyler Tolbert, but I think the Royals will prefer the speed on the bench to Loftin’s batting eye. But also, based on how they approached the offseason, I could be very wrong on that one. Tell me I’m an idiot in the comments if you want, and then ask me again tomorrow because I could change my mind.

I don’t think Josh Rojas has a real shot to break camp with the club — especially not with the Marte signing, with how well Massey has played, and with Tolbert and Loftin already on the 40-man roster. That goes double for all other infielders trying to crack the roster.

Rotation

LHP Cole Ragans

RHP Seth Lugo

LHP Kris Bubic

RHP Michael Wacha

LHP Noah Cameron

Last time, I mostly thought Bubic wouldn’t be on the team and that, if he was, they’d consider moving him to the bullpen. But he really was one of the best starters in MLB last year, and since none of the trades materialized and Marte signed, it seems like we get to watch him pitch for KC for at least one more year. Now I just have to pray for my favorite pitcher to get a midseason contract extension, à la Seth Lugo last year.

Bullpen

CL Carlos Estévez

RHP Lucas Erceg

LHP Matt Strahm

RHP John Schreiber

RHP Nick Mears

LHP Helcris Olivárez

RHP Mason Black

LHP Bailey Falter

With Bubic no longer in the ’pen, they need another lefty. Olivárez has really impressed me this spring, especially with his heretofore unseen ability to throw strikes while regularly hitting 98 from the left side. I think that should be enough to get him a big-league job. Alex Lange drops off because he hasn’t impressed me much yet, and his major league money doesn’t kick in until he’s on the major league roster, so starting him in AAA if he doesn’t look ready is a smart move. Black also has options, but he’s looked terrific on the mound so far this spring, and I’d like to see him carry that on.

I’m still not remotely convinced that Bailey Falter will be with KC by the end of Spring Training, but I also haven’t seen anyone else stand out enough to kick him off the team if KC doesn’t find a trade partner. My best guess is that if they do deal Falter, as things stand right now, Daniel Lynch IV would get his spot as the swingman/mop-up guy. I would like to point out that Danny Coulombe is still looking for a job, though. Come on, Royals, do the fun thing and bring him in! Then we wouldn’t need Lynch or Falter, and Olivárez could become the mop-up guy!

This still leaves out talented relievers Steven Cruz, James McArthur, and Luinder Avila in the minors to start the year, but expect all of them to appear in KC at various points when the team needs to option someone or someone hits the IL. Dennis Colleran Jr. has looked pretty good, but I just can’t see him in the big leagues earlier than very late this season — and probably more like next year.

I’ve had hours and days to think about this, and I think I’ve finally figured out how Marte fits on this roster. It took so long because, for most of my Royals fandom, they’ve filled their benches with defensive masters or speedsters. The last time I can remember them carrying someone on the bench primarily for his ability to hit was Ryan McBroom in 2021. And McBroom didn’t last the whole season. Before that, it was Dave McCarty in 2000 and 2001 (though he was bad in 2001). So Marte will break with tradition in more ways than one — being primarily a good hitter on the bench and not having an Irish/Scottish surname while doing so.

The Texas Rangers optioned righthanded pitchers Winston Santos to AA Frisco and Emiliano Teodo to AAA Round Rock yesterday, per the MLB.com transactions page. The team has not formally announced those moves, though I assume they will do so today.

Both Santos and Teodo are dealing with physical issues that are currently limiting him. Santos suffered a broken left hand when hit by a comebacker while throwing batting practice, while Teodo is reportedly still recovering from the back issues which limited him in 2025.

Santos, who turns 24 in April, was added to the 40 man roster after the 2024 season. He spent most of the 2025 season on the injured list, making five starts for Frisco and one start for Round Rock during the regular minor league season. He also appeared in five games in the Arizona Fall League. The expectation is that Santos will be ready to go pretty soon after the minor league season starts.

Teodo, 25, was also added to the 40 man roster the previous winter. While he was seen as a dark horse candidate to make the Rangers’ bullpen out of spring training last year, he struggled to stay healthy and throw strikes all year, ultimately throwing 30 innings over 27 games between the ACL, Frisco and Round Rock, putting up a 7.20 ERA. He also threw four innings in the Arizona Fall League.

While players who are injured normally cannot be optioned, teams are allowed to option a player who is injured if he did not appear in the major leagues the previous season, so long as the player is sent down at least 15 days prior to the start of the major league season.

EDIT — The team has officially announced these transactions. They have also announced that Nabil Crismatt, Declan Cronin, and Trevor Hauver have been officially assigned to the minor league camp, leaving 61 players in the major league camp.

The Dodgers are going to win 130 games and blow away the NL West.

Of course they’re not going to do that. Isn’t that what was said about the Dodgers last year? They won exactly one more game than the Cubs did.

Obviously they’re the favorites to win their division again, as they have done 12 times in the last 13 years, missing out only in 2021 when they won 106 games but the Giants had that freak 107-win year. (And then LA beat the Giants in the postseason anyway.)

But a couple of other teams in this division have improved, and this division might be more competitive than you might think.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Key departures: Jalen Beeks, Ildemaro Vargas, Jake McCarthy, Blaze Alexander

Key arrivals: Nolan Arenado, Merrill Kelly, Carlos Santana, Paul Sewald, Jonathan Loaisiga, Michael Soroka

Look at that “arrivals” list. Looks like a 2019 All-Star team to me.

The D-backs did bring back Zac Gallen, who was rumored for a while to be coming to the Cubs, and re-united with Merrill Kelly, who they traded to the Rangers last summer.

The Cubs had Carlos Santana for a while last September. Remember that? Now he’s expected to be at least a platoon first baseman for Arizona — and he’ll turn 40 in April and hasn’t been dominant since, yes, 2019.

Nolan Arenado seems in career decline, too.

The D-backs still do have some good younger players, including Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo and Gabriel Moreno. An injury to Corbin Carroll puts the start of his season in jeopardy.

They finished 80-82 and it says here they won’t be much better than that.

At Wrigley Field: May 1-2-3

At Arizona: Aug. 24-25-26

SB Nation team site: AZ Snakepit

Colorado Rockies

Key departures: Germán Márquez, Kyle Farmer, Thairo Estrada, Sam Hilliard, Ryan Rolison, Michael Toglia, Warming Bernabel, Anthony Molina, Drew Romo, Angel Chivilli

Key arrivals: John Brebbia, Nicky Lopez, Keegan Thompson, Jake McCarthy, Michael Lorenzen, Willi Castro, Edouard Julien, Valente Bellozo, Tomoyuki Sugano, José Quintana

There is almost no chance this Rockies team could be worse than last year’s, which went 43-119, setting a franchise record. It was their third straight 100-loss season.

The Rockies actually played a bit better after starting the year 9-50. From that point until Aug. 31, they went 30-48, which is bad but not horrendous (it’s a 62-100 pace for a full season). Then they went 4-21 in September, which, yikes.

They’ve acquired a couple of decent veteran starters in Lorenzen, Sugano and Quintana and have a few decent young players in Hunter Goodman, Brenton Doyle and Ezequiel Tovar.

Like the 2025 White Sox, who improved by 20 wins over their 41-121 season in 2024, the Rockies could post a 60-win season. Which is still bad, but would be a significant step in the right direction.

At Wrigley Field: June 15-16-17

At Colorado: June 9-10-11

SB Nation team site: Purple Row

Los Angeles Dodgers

Key departures: Clayton Kershaw, Michael Conforto, Michael Kopech, Kirby Yates, Justin Dean, Tony Gonsolin, Ben Rortvedt, Esteury Ruiz, Anthony Banda

Key arrivals: Kyle Tucker, Edwin Díaz, Cole Irvin, Michael Siani, Santiago Espinal

What can be said about the Dodgers that hasn’t already been said?

Kyle Tucker will be a complementary piece in L.A., a different role than he was expected to play in Houston. So if he’s healthy, that’s a big jump for a Dodgers offense that didn’t really need it (they led the NL in runs and home runs last year anyway).

The pitching rotation is its usual 11-deep, even after the retirement of Kershaw. And Díaz will head up a very deep bullpen.

And Shohei Ohtani will do more Shohei Ohtani things and very possibly win a fourth straight MVP (and fifth overall).

The Dodgers will probably win this division again. Maybe this time the Cubs will see them in October. I suspect the Cubs would have given the Dodgers a more competitive NLCS than the Brewers did.

At Wrigley Field: Aug, 3-4-5

At Los Angeles: April 24-25-26

SB Nation team site: True Blue LA

San Diego Padres

Key departures: Luis Arráez, Dylan Cease, Nestor Cortes, Jose Iglesias, Ryan O’Hearn, Robert Suarez

Key arrivals: Triston McKenzie, Jose Miranda, Marco Gonzales, Nick Castellanos, Ty France, Germán Márquez, Walker Buehler, Griffin Canning

The Padres are trying to address the departure of Dylan Cease with quantity — look at all the FA pitchers they signed. Who knows, maybe they can resurrect Walker Buehler into what he once was with the Dodgers. Griffin Canning is a good signing, and Germán Márquez should be better outside of Coors Field.

With Robert Suarez gone, mid-season acquisition Mason Miller moves into the closer role. He was lights-out (0.77 ERA, 0.729 WHIP, struck out 54.2 percent of batters faced, 45 of 83) as a setup guy last year, so if they can get the game to him they should win a lot of close ones.

At Wrigley Field: June 29-30-July 1

At San Diego: April 27-28-29

SB Nation team site: Gaslamp Ball

San Francisco Giants

Key departures: Justin Verlander, Wilmer Flores, Joey Lucchesi, Andrew Knizner

Key arrivals: Reiver Sanmartin, Sam Hentges, Caleb Kilian, Adrian Houser, Gregory Santos, Tyler Mahle, Eric Haase, Harrison Bader, Luis Arráez, Will Brennan, Michael Fulmer

The Giants had a very strange 2025 season. On June 13 they beat the Dodgers and at 41-29, were tied with them for first place in the NL West.

Then they went on a 20-39 skid that put them at 61-68, 12 games out of first. That was followed by a five-game winning streak that included a three-game sweep of the Cubs at Oracle Park, part of a 14-4 run that put them only a game and a half out of the last wild card spot.

From there the Giants went 7-9 and finished at exactly .500… the fourth straight year they have finished within four games of. 500 (starting in 2022: 81-81, 79-83, 80-82 and 81-81).

They are hoping all the miscellaneous pitchers they picked up will help them this year. They will have outstanding outfield defense with Harrison Bader now in center field and Jung Hoo Lee moved to right. Their left side infield defense is outstanding with Matt Chapman at third base and Willy Adames at short, but the right side… yikes, Luis Arráez at second and Rafael Devers at first is kinda frightening.

Looks like another .500 season in San Francisco. These teams will meet six times in a 10-day period in June.

At Wrigley Field: June 5-6-7

At San Francisco: June 12-13-14

SB Nation team site: McCovey Chronicles

Tomorrow: AL East

I really hate to keep beating the same drum, but I’m going to continue to be on the record as believing that the make-or-break aspect of the next would-be competitive era of White Sox baseball — the aspect that Rick Hahn and friends utterly failed at from 2017-19 — is going to be whether they can find at least a couple All-Stars or solid starters out of the scrap heap. In other words, unexpected help that picks up the slack when all of the prospects aren’t magically good at the same time the moment they hit the big leagues — a concept that Rick Hahn always seemed a little bit challenged by.

As I’ve blabbed about a million times before, the Cubs don’t win in 2016 without Jake Arrieta. In Houston José Altuve was barely a Top 100 prospect, Dallas Keuchel never came close to sniffing a prospect list, and Marwin González was a critical cog in their championship roster. The Orioles may have blown their shot, but they wouldn’t have even had one if they hadn’t gotten more than 500 extra-base hits from the previously-anonymous Anthony Santander and Cedric Mullins over a five-year stretch.

Things look more promising for the Sox this time around. When the decision was made to tear down the core that brought home the 2021 AL Central crown, nobody knew that Shane Smith was going to be in the plans as a Top 3 starter, and I can’t think of another Sox prospect who’s ever rebounded from “seems like a bust” to “possibly a superstar” like Colson Montgomery.

Over the next couple of weeks, I’m going to be identifying and breaking down five players on the Sox roster who could potentially be those unexpected building blocks — and what it means for the team if it ever comes to fruition.

Let’s get straight to the point here. I want you to look at an assortment of hand-picked stats from three young Sox players, measured from July 3-onward last year.

Player A, as you’ve probably gathered from the massive slugging number and perhaps conspicuous cutoff date, is Colson Montgomery. Player B probably isn’t hard to pin down as Kyle Teel, who’s probably second to Montgomery in terms of excitement generated for future Sox teams, and whose numbers are particularly exciting for a solid receiver behind the plate.

Player C, though? That’s Brooks Baldwin, who was called back up to the majors on July 1 last season and proceeded to hold his own with the best of the Sox young talent the rest of the way (albeit with a bit less playing time). It’s not an exaggeration to say that he came as close to matching Montgomery’s absurd second-half output as anybody else on the Sox, especially when you look at the batted-ball metrics.

Interesting! Very Interesting!

Let’s turn this into a quick deep-ish dive on what exactly happened between his initial demotion in May and final recall to Chicago in July. I found a real short answer: He figured out how to hit fastballs in the air instead of on the ground.

In fact, I wrote this entire article before I realized video existed of the kid going oppo-taco on a Spencer Strider fastball. The same Spencer Strider whose entire shtick is, hey, you can’t hit me because I consistently throw a four-seamer up in the zone faster than you can blink.

Baldwin’s bat speed isn’t elite, but it’s not unplayable either. Even when he’s struggled, he’s made solid contact, posting above-average exit velocities at every measured level. When he came back from Charlotte at the beginning of July, all of that hard contact suddenly started going places where it could do actual damage. His overall fly ball percentage jumped from 30% to 48% after that call-up!

I’m pretty embarrassed I didn’t notice it before. It didn’t take a lot more diving to locate the specific place of improvement, either.

The game is largely moving away from traditional fastballs, but pitchers are always going to have to throw them. The key for Baldwin is to avoid getting himself out on breaking stuff. There are a solid number of solid big-leaguers who make a living off of hammering fastballs. It’s plenty conceivable that Baldwin could become one of them.

The flip side is that Baldwin’s tendency to chase is still worrisome. Even after he started being awesome against heaters (I specifically love how he took his average launch angle against sinkers from a virtually flat one degree all the way up to 16, solidly in line drive territory) he still offered at pitches out of the zone at a rate near the bottom of the league. Damage against fastballs doesn’t matter if pitchers can spam breaking balls and offspeed pitches and get away with it most of the time.

Still, there’s still a much wider range of outcomes with Baldwin than many of us are giving him credit for. Defensive metrics have panned his work pretty much across the board, but he’s plenty fleet of foot, ranking in the 82nd percentile for Baseball Savant’s sprint speed metric. It also thinks he has a solid enough arm, one that will play all across the diamond even if it’s nothing special. Contrasted with someone like Lenyn Sosa, whose lack of lateral speed and overall athleticism put a hard cap on his defensive ceiling, Baldwin still has room for improvement. This is not the guy who has the tools of a negative defender.

Now, to zoom out of the nitty-gritty. Let’s assume July-August-September Baldwin is what we actually get this season. Pencil in a 120 wRC+ switch hitter who isn’t better-than-average at any position, but can give any of your regulars a breather on any given day. He’s going to walk and strike out at rates around league average, and he’s got enough speed to do some damage on the basepaths. Project it out over 500-odd trips to the plate, and you get a guy who might push 20-20 without even locking down a regular position.

In what world were the 2026 White Sox supposed to have a guy like that that we didn’t already know about?

Did I just accidentally describe peak Ben Zobrist when trying to come up with a comp for Brooks Baldwin? Maybe I did! So sue me. This is the thought experiment right here, guys. Does anyone expect every single one of the farm system’s ranked prospects to hit their ceilings any more than they did the last time? I’m sure one of these years, we’ll finally witness long-awaited glory from a rotation topped by Jon Rauch, Matt Ginter, and Dan Wright.

If the 2027 or 2028 White Sox are going to be competitive, it’s not going to be because of Teel, Edgar Quero, the Montgomerys, and Roch Cholowsky.

(Pause for dramatic effect)

That’s a lie! Of course it’s going to be because of them. A better way of putting that might be to say that if the 2027 or 2028 Sox want a shot at being 100-win juggernaut instead of a 92-win question mark or 84-win flop, it’s not going be because the top prospects clicked; it’s going to be because someone like Brooks Baldwin turned into a poor-but-not-necessarily-crazy-poor man’s Ben Zobrist, and nobody saw it coming. Nobody but us, of course.

It could just as easily be that Baldwin reverts to the 60 wRC+ hitter he was for the first 80-odd games of his big league career. It’s almost famously common knowledge by now that September stats have, broadly speaking, no real correlation with performance the following season. But hey, tell that to Lenyn Sosa in September 2024.

If Baldwin does anything in 2026 akin to how Sosa followed up on that scorching-hot September, there’s no telling how the calculus on this team’s roster might be changed seven months from now.

While much of the attention through the first few weeks of Spring Training has been on the Braves pitching staff, the Braves offense has been the source of much success so far. Power has been on full display from just about everyone, from newcomers such as Mike Yastrzemski to emerging prospects like John Gil. Of course, the mainstays are also getting in on the fun, including Austin Riley. Riley went deep for the second time on Sunday, and has looked locked in so far this Spring. If Riley can return to his 2022-2023 form, the Braves offense can be among the best in baseball once again.

Braves News

Mark Bowman looks at how top pitching prospect J.R. Ritchie could be a potential option in the majors sooner than later as he continues to impress in Spring Training.

Braves made their first round of cuts, including reliever Hunter Stratton and utilityman Nacho Alvarez. Most of the cuts were to free players up to join their respective WBC clubs.

MLB News

MLB.com released their WBC power rankings.

Konnor Griffin’s potential has been on full display

The Cardinals extended manager Oli Marmol for two more years.

We know Freddie Freeman has a plan for things. He wants to play four more seasons (two beyond his current contract with the Dodgers) and get to 3,000 hits. He’d like to get 47 plate appearances this spring.

But sometimes even Freeman gets caught off guard with thinking too far ahead.

Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times argued that Freeman should wear a Dodger cap once he’s inducted into the Hall of Fame rather than a cap of the Atlanta Braves, for whom he played 12 seasons. I enjoyed this part of their exchange:

“I’ve only been here for four years, and you’re already talking about this?” Freeman said. “That makes me happy because that means I’ve done my job well.”

Consider this a bonus daily question to answer in the comments below: What cap should Freeman wear when he’s inducted into the Hall of Fame?

Start your Monday off by seeing the reception Shohei Ohtani received when arrived in Osaka for Japan’s final two tuneups before the World Baseball Classic, from Theo DeRosa at MLB.com.

Japan’s first WBC game in Pool C is Friday at 2 a.m. PT, televised by FS1.

Speaking of World Baseball Classic news, old friend Ryan Yarbrough was added to the United States roster for pool play, replacing Twins pitcher Joe Ryan. Yarbrough pitched for the Dodgers in parts of the 2023 and 2024 seasons, and is currently with the Yankees.