Being a Mets fan must be exhausting. Being of New York is a status symbol, which carries privilege but also responsibility. The Mets are expected to win! And short of that, they’re expected to do everything they can to win. And if they don’t, there’s no choice as a fan but to be miserable. Plenty of Giants fans would like to think their favorite team is in the same boat, but I would hope a close inspection of the franchises situations would reveal that they’re not anywhere close to the same. For the Mets, the floor is “good,” but the expectation is great. For the Giants, “good enough” is the primary philosophy.

It’s hardly a distinction without a difference, too. “Good” means spending way, waaaaaay more than it should’ve cost to acquire Juan Soto (15 years, $765 million).“Good enough” means trading for Rafael Devers in his decline phase or filling out a thin rotation with oft-injured Tyler Mahle and fifth-starter-at-best Adrian Houser. “Good” carries the expectation that the team will make the postseason, meaning that David Stearns, the Mets’ President of Baseball Operations, had compose an actual offseason plan after “let beloved Mets figures Pete Alonso and Edwin Diaz walk.”

Our colleagues over at Amazin’ Avenue gave the team an “A-” for their offseason additions of free agents closer Devin Williams, first baseman Jorge Polanco (he’d played just 1-2 innings at the position prior to the signing), reliever Luke Williams and infielder Bo Bichette (whom they pivoted to after losing out on Kyle Tucker) along with trades for infielder Marcus Semien, outfielder Luis Robert, and starter Freddy Peralta.

It was a substantial rebuild of the team’s core done within the span of a single offseason with enough bona fide talent that it blows past the “well, if everything works out”-style prognostication that typically follows a Giants winter. The Giants have typically operated in that “good enough” area where if a couple of things break right, the team will be really successful. “Good,” or the pursuit of it, means building something that is less likely to fail.

But that’s why they play the games and all that very relevant history of Baseball. The Mets aren’t the Dodgers (who’ve started 4-2) nor are they the Yankees (5-1). Then again, they could be. The Giants picked up their first two wins of the season in games started by pitchers who are probably very close to the end of their major league careers (Walker Buehler & German Marquez). Like with the Yankees series, the moment they faced an average-to-above average major league starter (depending on how you want to label Nick Pivetta), their bats went cold.

The Mets’ staff has a 2.50 ERA through their first 6 games (57.2 IP) of the season, but given the peripherals, they’re right around where the Giants are (3.74 team ERA btw) in terms of value (+0.7 fWAR vs. +0.6fWAR). But they’re also just 20th in runs scored (23). Of course, the Giants are last (14 runs scored). It’s so early in the season that the sample size factor ought to be our main consideration when comparing the two teams. Of course, the next consideration is substantial, too.

While the Giants have a group that looks solid on paper, it doesn’t really measure up to the Mets. There’s the Juan Soto of it all, of course. He just hit his first home run of the season yesterday, but has started the year with a line of .346/.414/.538 (29 PA). Last season, he hit 43 home runs in 160 games and drew 127 walks. He’s quite good; and, at Oracle Park, he’s been stellar: a career .313/.422/.604 in 25 games and 116 plate appearances. So, you know, let’s look at him as a given. A guy to pitch around and a guy who will hurt you late in the game.

The Mets are missing Pete Alonso now, and that’s a nice development. Then again, they have Francisco Lindor and now Bo Bichette. While he doesn’t have much experience logged against the Giants, the guy with a career .292 average is off to a .111 start. Can the Giants sneak past his bat in this 4-game series?

The tougher part will be the pitching, as Nolan McLean is considered by some to be an ace in waiting. Clay Holmes, Kodai Senga, and Freddy Peralta are all #2-type pitchers. Devin Williams is a great closer when he’s not pitching for the Yankees. There are plenty of obstacles in the Giants’ way.

I don’t think it’s right to do this, but I can see the argument in assuming the Giants are in no way competitive against the Yankees or Dodgers and figure all of those will be losses. The problem is, if you start doing that with two teams, then why not three teams? The only way the Giants will be able to upend some assumptions about their .500-ness is by winning games against good teams, especially at home. It’s not too early in the season to start doing that. On the other hand, winning a game or two with the aim of getting through this tough part of the schedule around 3-5 games under .500 is the sort of “good enough” we might expect from the Giants.

The Mets have been constructed for the express purpose of winning the National League East. The Giants have been built in hopes of competing for a Wild Card slot as deep into the season as possible.

Series overview

Who: San Francisco Giants (2-4) vs. New York Mets (3-3)
Where: Oracle Park | San Francisco, CA
When: Thursday at 6:45pm PT, Friday at 7:15pm PT, Saturday at 6:05pm PT, Sunday at
National broadcasts: Friday (MLB Network simulcast)

Projected starters
Thursday: David Peterson (LHP, 0-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Robbie Ray (LHP, 0-1, 3.38 ERA)
Friday: Nolan McLean (RHP, 0-0, 3.60 ERA) vs. Tyler Mahle (RHP, 0-1, 4.50 ERA)
Saturday: Clay Holmes (RHP, 1-0, 3.18 ERA) vs. Landen Roupp (RHP, 1-0, 0.00 ERA)
Sunday: Kodai Senga (RHP, 0-1, 3.00 ERA) vs. Logan Webb (RHP, 1-1, 7.36 ERA)

Players to watch (besides Logan Webb & Juan Soto)

Mets

Francisco Lindor: He has just 3 hits on the season, but 2 of them are triples! He also has drawn 7 walks to just 3 strikeouts. He has a career .909 OPS against the Giants with a .927 OPS specifically in Oracle Park.

Brett Baty / Mark Vientos: Why not put Bo Bicette here? Well, frankly, because I wrote about him above. He’ll either continue slumping or get some hits against the Giants in this series to frustrate them and boost his batting average. But with these two, it’ll be key to watch how they’re used. In a lot of other front offices, these two would’ve been penciled in as starters to maintain “payroll flexibility.” The Mets don’t have such considerations and so now these two ostensible corner guys are being used in a variety of roles — DH, first base, outfield, third base, second base. Baty took a step forward last season when he hit 18 home runs and drove in 50 across 130 games (432 PA) on a .748 OPS. Vientos had 27 home runs and 71 RBI on a .266/.322/.516 line in 2024 (454 PA) before backsliding to a .233/.289/.413 line with 17 homers and 61 RBI (463 PA). The Mets shed three Giants killers in the offseason: Pete Alonso, Ronnie Mauricio, and Jeff McNeil. Will either or both of these guys take their places?

Sean Manaea: The former Giant seemed to have been in a career renaissance at the end of his sole year with the Giants (2023), catching on with the Mets in such a big way that they signed him to a 3-year, $75 million deal at the end of 2024. Now he’s in the bullpen. Will he frustrate his former team late in the game or over multiple innings if one of the Mets’ starters goes down? Let’s hope not.

Giants

Rafael Devers: Rafael Devers is probably still nursing an injury. How else to explain his .593 OPS to start the season? Well, he’s getting a lot of pitches outside the strike zone (54.8%) and swinging at them more than his career average — 35.1% through the first 6 games of 2026; 32.6% for his career. He’s also making 80% contact on those pitches. The dreaded zone contact rate that is the canary in the coal mine for his contract being underwater the moment the Giants traded for him remains… stable, compared to recent years. 2024: 74.9%, 2025: 73.9%, 2026: 74.3%. So, really, it’s that he’s swinging at pitches he can’t do a lot of damage on. His average exit velocity is at 84.5 mph. His career average is 92.6. It’s been 93 since 2020. So, there you go.

Ryan Walker: He will probably have a save situation in this series, in which case, we’ll all be holding our breaths for good reason. He’s looked as shaky this season as he did through half of last season. The Giants’ defense is a bit shaky right now and, at best, is prone to giving up lots of hits (just ask Logan Webb), which is exactly what Ryan Walker doesn’t need right now as he tries to minimize baserunners.

The bench: With the Giants now setup to play 7 games in a row, we’ll finally get to see Tony Vitello deploy his bench players a bit more. How will Jared Oliva, Jerar Encarnacion, Daniel Susac, and Christian Koss fare in this series? Not sure, but it’s going to be important to see how they’re used because it’s a long season and it would be great if they got more regular work. The two off days in the team’s first 4 games was unusual.

Tony Vitello watch

Not only will we be watching how he deploys his bench, we’ll see how he manages a pitching staff across a 4-game series. Now, the front office determines a lot of the pitching plan, of course, but he’s going to become familiar with the Mets by the end of the series and he’ll be far enough along with this roster that the repetitive nature of a 4-gamer might make him comfortable enough to do something distinctly Tony.

Don’t worry. I’m thinking of ways to improve this section.

Prediction time

The Giants will manage to avoid a sweep.

One Mets shortstop is sticking up for another.

Jose Reyes posted a supportive message for Francisco Lindor after his blunder-filled mess of a game in Wednesday’s 2-1 loss to the Cardinals in 11 innings.

Lindor forgot how many outs there were in the first inning and got picked off at first base later in the game, while also going 0-for-4 to drop to .143 spanning six contests.

“Relax everybody… my guy Francisco Lindor gonna be good,” Reyes posted Thursday morning.

“Bad days happen — that’s baseball. Could happen to anyone. He’s human just like all of us. Watch how he responds… this gonna be good for him and for the organization.”

Lindor is catching some flak after a rough mental day Wednesday that dropped the team to 1-3 in its last four games, all against non-contenders from the 2025 season.

With one on and one out in a scoreless game in the first, Lindor fielded a tailor-made ball at shortstop and ran to second and continued toward the dugout.

But his out marked just the second, and Freddy Peralta threw another five pitches in the inning to strike out Masyn Winn and prevent any damage.

“He forgot how many outs there were,” SNY announcer Gary Cohen said of Lindor. “Lindor thought that was the third out, did not try for the double play.”

Analyst Todd Zeile added: “That was unusual for Lindor, he usually knows the situation out there.”

Lindor didn’t make any excuse, and Mets manager Carlos Mendoza added “that can’t happen.”

“I forgot the outs,” he said. “I made a mistake that probably cost Peralta to go an extra inning … Inexcusable.”

Five innings later, Lindor reached via an error to start the sixth inning.

Cardinals southpaw Matthew Liberatore then caught him veering too far off the bag before a steal attempt and a quick throw left the veteran dead to rights on the bases.

Acknowledging the fallacy of the predetermined outcome, that mistake loomed large since Juan Soto hit a solo homer moments later to plate the game’s first run.

“They got us there,” Mendoza said. “He was gonna go, we thought we had a tip there and they got us with a quick step-off move there. I wouldn’t consider that one a mental mistake because he was trying to get some momentum there and being aggressive.”

• CHECK OUT THE LATEST MLB STANDINGS AND METS STATS

Fans piled on Lindor since the Mets ultimately fell in extra innings and the shortstop is supposed to be one of — if not the — leaders of the team and shouldn’t be making those mistakes.

And while a 3-3 start is far from disaster, the Mets have not been all that impressive to start the season.

Reyes knows a thing or two about manning shortstop for the Mets after spending 12 seasons with the team from 2003-11 and then 2016-18.

He played the third-most games in franchise history, ranks second in hits and has the most steals.

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The New York Mets will try to get their offense back on track when they visit the San Francisco Giants tonight.

San Francisco is going through its own struggles at the plate, and I’m taking New York to pick up a road win in my Mets vs. Giants predictions. 

Read on to see my free MLB picks for Thursday, April 2.

Who will win Mets vs Giants today: Mets ML (-118)

Both teams are looking to recover from early offensive struggles, but it’s San Francisco that has been truly putrid at the plate early this season. The Giants are dead last in runs per game at 2.33 and are second-worst in MLB in terms of OPS (.558). 

New York Mets starter David Peterson showed a little regression in the second half of 2025 but came out strong in his first start this season, throwing 5.1 innings of shutout ball. The Giants have struggled even more against left-handed pitching this year, so I like New York to pick up the win tonight.

COVERS INTEL: The Giants were poor against left-handed pitching in 2025 as well, hitting .214 with a .631 OPS against southpaws last season.

Mets vs Giants Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-110)

While nobody is hitting quite as badly as the Giants right now, the Mets are going through their own issues at the plate, scoring 3.83 runs per game so far. New third baseman Bo Bichette somehow has a .249 OPS, while Francisco Lindor is hitting .143. Overall, New York is hitting .162 with runners in scoring position to start the year.

The Mets aren’t getting a break in this pitching matchup either, as San Francisco is sending 2021 Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray to the mound tonight. I’m taking the Under at a generous 8.5 runs.

Mets vs Giants odds

• Moneyline: New York -117 | San Francisco +105
• Run line: New York -1.6 (+140) | San Francisco +1.5 (-165)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Mets vs Giants trend

The Mets are 5-2 straight up in their last seven games against San Francisco. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Giants.

How to watch Mets vs Giants and game info

Mets vs Giants latest injuries

Mets vs Giants weather

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Last year, the Yankees dealt two legitimately interesting prospects, Roc Riggio and Ben Shields, to get reliever Jake Bird from the Colorado Rockies at the Trade Deadline. Their experiment wasn’t successful, at least in 2025, as he posted a 27.00 ERA in a couple of innings with the team before being optioned to Triple-A, where he also struggled to the tune of a 6.32 ERA in 15.2 frames.

It was an ugly initial showing for Bird, but the bright side was that the Yankees knew they had three years of team control remaining on the righty, whose tantalizing pitches helped him fan 62 batters in 54.1 innings for Colorado prior to the trade. This offseason, Bird effectively hit the reset button as he turned 30, worked on his stuff, and resurfaced with New York in February, ready to turn the page and make his mark on a new year with his new team. He had no guarantee to make the team, but he earned his Opening Day spot in the 2026 bullpen.

After a fine spring that included a 2.70 ERA and 16 strikeouts in 10 innings, Bird has pitched 3.1 scoreless frames to open the campaign, with three punchouts, no walks, and just one hit allowed. The sample is still, of course, quite tiny, but it’s plain to see that he looks confident and in control on the mound. Last year, let’s just say that wasn’t the case.

What’s behind Bird’s early success? Why is he looking so much better this year than last? Well, he made some key adjustments in his repertoire and pitch mix, and they are paying off.

In 2025, Bird’s most frequently used offering was the sweeper, which he threw 40.5 percent of the time. The sinker, at 33.6 percent, was his second most frequently used pitch, and the curveball checked in at third with 22.7 percent. He also threw a cutter (2.5 percent of the time) and a four-seamer (0.6 percent) to complement his arsenal.

Again, it’s still too soon to conclude that the pitch mix he has used in 2026 will stick, because he has only faced 11 hitters, but Bird and the Yankees completely overhauled the way he uses his pitches.

This time around, Bird is prioritizing the sinker, throwing it 56.4 percent of the time. He is also getting amazing results with it: a .119 xwOBA and 30-percent whiff rate from 22 offerings, amazing for the pitch type in question, but almost certainly unsustainable once the sample grows. Nonetheless, the progress is quite apparent.

The four-seamer, which is up a tick in comparison to last season (95.2 mph this year vs. 94.2 mph in 2025), is now second in his arsenal after barely being used in 2025. In fact, he’s already thrown it more times this year than all of last year, 9-6. The only hit he’s surrendered, a ground-ball single from Heliot Ramos that snuck by Ryan McMahon and José Caballero, came off a four-seamer, but it certainly wasn’t well-struck.

Bird’s third pitch thus far is his familiar sweeper, which he’s thrown eight times. Although four missed the zone (as sweepers are wont to do), he got called strikes on two of them, induced a groundout from Casey Schmitt, and struck out Willy Adames. Not bad at all. It’s fair to say that this is closer to the pitcher the Yankees thought they were acquiring last year.

So what has changed besides the pitch mix? Well, a couple of things.

Last year, Bird’s sinker averaged 11.3 inches of horizontal movement, and when he came to the Bronx, his command of the pitch was not good. In 2026, the pitch is averaging 16.5 inches of horizontal movement. That, coming in at an average speed of 94.8 mph while also being wary of the filthy sweeper, is just not easy to hit.

Now, he can use that sinker to get grounders:

Or even as a swing and miss pitch due to its incredible arm-side movement:

Last year, it quickly became evident that the command of the pitch just wasn’t there, as can be seen in this short clip of Kyle Stowers’ grand slam on a middle-middle sinker with little movement:

That was the meatball of all meatballs in a nightmare of an introduction. In the small sample that this year has given us, Bird has mostly avoided the fat part of the zone with his sinker.

Additionally, his sweeper can do this:

When Bird gets ahead of the count against a righty, the probability of him getting a strikeout on a sweeper away and out of the zone is quite high.

Bird’s 63.6 percent first-pitch strike rate would be a career-high, but it’s still far too early to declare him fully back until we see it for a much longer period. It wasn’t right for fans to declare him toast after just three games in pinstripes last year, and it wouldn’t be right to declare him the next great setup man after just three games this year. All the same, the early signs of a breakout are there, and the Yankees will hopefully reap the benefits of their patience and the pitcher’s hard work.

Great news, prospect fans. Yesterday was the last day (off days notwithstanding) that only one San Francisco Giants Minor League Baseball affiliate was in action. Today there will be two affiliates playing baseball, and on Friday we get four. As summer rolls closer, we’ll get seven!

For now though, it’s just one team and a lot of news. Let’s dive in.

Link to the 2026 McCovey Chronicles Community Prospect List (CPL)

All listed positions in the roundup are the position played in that particular game.

News

Wednesday brought a lot of news to the farm, because of the release of rosters. But before we get to that, a small amount of transactions came across the wire. Most notably, the Giants re-signed veteran catcher Eric Haase to a Minor League deal. Haase was signed over the offseason as a Minor League free agent with an invite to camp, but lost the backup catcher battle to Daniel Susac (No. 20 CPL). Rather than being reassigned to Minor League camp, he was released, presumably due to an opt-out in his contract. But with no better situations calling his name, Haase has returned to San Francisco’s system, which is huge. While the Giants have an intriguing prospect in Jesús Rodríguez (No. 16 CPL) in AAA, he’s still a little bit of a question mark with the glove. They’ll need a third-string catcher at some point — either injury or Susac struggles will mandate it — and having a veteran in Sacramento is very important.

That’s the only transaction for now, but there’s probably another coming down the pipeline. During Wednesday’s loss to the San Diego Padres, San Francisco reliever José Buttó exited the game with arm discomfort, which usually means a trip to the Injured List. AAA Sacramento’s game followed San Francisco’s, so the coaching staff already had that information. Despite that, RHPs Tristan Beck and Michael Fulmer both pitched in the game, which would suggest that RHP Spencer Bivens is the player the Giants will call up if Buttó does, indeed, hit the IL.

Now, let’s get to the rosters! AA Richmond, High-A Eugene, and Low-A San Jose all released their rosters on Wednesday. Check them out:

A few things to note here. While not surprising, the team’s top two draft picks from last year — first-round infielder Gavin Kilen (No. 7 CPL) and third-round outfielder Trevor Cohen (No. 15 CPL) both got the aggressive assignment to High-A. That’s not shocking for early-round college bats who have polished skillsets, but it’s certainly notable, especially since Kilen had just 43 plate appearances in Low-A last year, and really struggled (though he was playing through an injury), while Cohen had 130 plate appearances in Low-A (he played quite well).

Kilen should get everyday reps at shortstop for now, due in part to a mildly surprising assignment: shortstop Maui Ahuna (No. 33 CPL) is opening the year in AA Richmond. On the one hand, it makes sense, as Ahuna, a 4th-round pick in 2023, is entering his third full season in the Minors, just turned 24, and is a defensive wizard. On the other hand, he has a massive hole in his contact tool, and injuries have limited him to just 11 games in High-A … after just 60 in Low-A. Whether this assignment is due to the Giants being confident in Ahuna’s ability to shine in AA, or due to roster logistics, it’s an exciting show of faith in Ahuna, who played for Tony Vitello at Tennessee.

Another exciting assignment is LHP Luis De La Torre (No. 14 CPL) getting to front High-A Eugene’s rotation. De La Torre had a breakout 2025 which started in rookie ball, but ended with Low-A San Jose. He only made 8 starts with the Baby Giants, but shined. An aggressive, but well-deserved assignment.

You might notice that LHP Jacob Bresnahan (No. 11 CPL) and infielder Jean Carlos Sio (No. 44 CPL) are absent from the rosters, along with RHP Josh Bostick (No. 22 CPL). Bresnahan (who will definitely be in High-A), and Sio (who will probably be in High-A, but possibly in AA) are seemingly a little behind on the health front, though neither seems to have a serious issue. Bostick, as has been reported, tore his Achilles in the offseason and will likely miss the entire season.

And those are the rosters! What stands out to you?

AAA Sacramento (3-2)

Sacramento River Cats beat the Salt Lake Bees (Angels) 10-5
Box score

Just as the Giants did on Tuesday, the River Cats’ offense finally broke through on Wednesday, with a performance much more befitting the Pacific Coast League environment than their earlier games. Despite miserable weather — which ended the game in the middle of the 9th inning, costing the Bees a chance for a 5-run comeback — the River Cats exploded for 14 hits, 6 extra-base hits, and 10 runs.

Leading the charge was the fill-in at shortstop, Thomas Gavello, who hit 2-5 with a pair of RBIs and a strikeout, while becoming Sacramento’s first player to hit a ball over the fence this year.

It’s a wildly exciting time to like shortstops and follow the Giants farm. Josuar González (No. 2 CPL) and Luis Hernández (No. 6 CPL) will be splitting reps in the ACL; Jhonny Level (No. 3 CPL) and Lorenzo Meola (No. 23 CPL) will be doing the same in San Jose; Gavin Kilen (No. 7 CPL) and Maui Ahuna (No. 33 CPL) will be anchoring Eugene and Richmond’s respective rosters. But there’s a hole in AAA, where shortstop has really just been a spot for emergency depth. Osleivis Basabe figures to get the bulk of the reps there when he returns from the Injured List, and starting the year at the six was Tyler Fitzgerald, until he was DFA’d a few days ago.

So now it’s Gavello who gets to fill in, and the utility player did an admirable job on Wednesday, though he committed an error.

While Gavello had the 4-bagger, the most runs batted in went to right fielder Grant McCray, who bounced back from a rough series opener to have an utterly dynamic game, hitting 2-5 with 2 doubles and 3 RBIs.

It’s extremely early days, but one thing to watch with McCray this year is his swing-and-miss. He’s always had a lot of whiff in his game, and last year in AAA had a 27.1% strikeout rate, while carrying a career 42.9% rate in 156 MLB plate appearances. He made some significant changes to his setup this offseason, and struck out just 15.0% of the time in Spring Training. So far that number is a tidy 16.7% in AAA though, again, we’re only 5 games into the season. Something to watch.

Joining McCray in the double-double category was catcher Eric Haase, who made his Sacramento debut after re-signing with the organization on a Minor League deal. Haase jumped straight into the lineup, and hit 3-5 with 2 doubles, while also striking out twice. It’s always good to see players have great days, though Haase — a 33-year old who has spent parts of 8 seasons in the Majors — is a known entity at this point. He’s not really going to play his way onto the MLB roster … he’s just there to be a quality veteran fill-in whenever it’s needed.

First baseman Bryce Eldridge (No. 1 CPL) had his best game of the season, which will certainly go noticed given San Francisco’s rough offensive start and Casey Schmitt’s difficult defensive day at first base yesterday. Eldridge went 2-4 in this game, smacked a double, and reached base 4 times total, as he also drew a walk and was hit by a pitch, without striking out.

We’ve yet to see Eldridge’s transcendent power — he doesn’t have a home run this year, and that double was his first extra-base hit — but he’s showing a polished offensive game in the early going. In 5 games he’s already drawn 5 walks, and, painfully enough, has also been hit on 3 different occasions. He’s also had an encouraging 23.1% strikeout rate though, again, extremely early and small sample size.

A pair of other players reached base thrice: third baseman Buddy Kennedy, who has been the team’s hottest hitter so far this year, went 1-4 with a walk, a hit by pitch, 2 strikeouts, and an error, while designated hitter Nate Furman (No. 39 CPL) hit 1-3 with a walk, a hit by pitch, and a strikeout. In all, 4 River Cats were hit by pitches, while 0 Bees were. Rude, though I guess not surprising … cats are significantly easier to hit with baseballs than bees are.

The pitching was less exciting, but reasonably effective against a Salt Lake offense that is full of players with MLB experience, including former Giant Wade Meckler, who drew a walk off the bench.

LHP John Michael Bertrand got the start and gave up a lot of baserunners, but limited the damage. In just 4 innings, Bertrand allowed 6 hits and 2 walks, but thanks to a combination of sequencing and soft contact — all of the hits were singles — he only allowed 2 runs, just 1 of which was earned. He also struck out 4 batters.

Bertrand, a 28-year old who was taken in the 10th round of the 2022 draft, is in a bit of an odd spot. He’s certainly a low-profile starter compared to some of the other arms in Sacramento, and he doesn’t have the nasty stuff that makes an MLB career inevitable. But he just gets outs wherever he goes, and has some funk from the left side. One would think there will be a role for him in the Majors some day.

RHP Tristan Beck continued to show off some serious electricity, as he seems notably nastier than in past years. He entered the game in the 6th inning with 2 outs and a runner on, and promptly gave up a single and a 2-run double (which gave an earned run each to himself and RHP Marques Johnson), the latter to Vaughn Grissom, a rehabbing Major Leaguer. But after that, Beck struck out the next/last 4 batters that he faced, and he did it in phenomenally dominant fashion, needing just 14 pitches — only 2 above the minimum – for those 4 Ks. Nasty!

RHP Michael Fulmer also got into the game, as he continues to audition for a role in San Francisco’s bullpen. The rain got to him a bit as he walked 2 batters in his inning of work (he came out for the 9th as well, before the inning was cancelled), but he didn’t allow any hits or runs, and struck out 2 batters.

Home run tracker

1 — Thomas Gavello — [AAA]

Thursday schedule

Sacramento: 5:35 p.m. PT at Salt Lake (SP: Carson Whisenhunt)
Richmond: Season starts Friday
Eugene: Season starts Friday
San Jose: 7:05 p.m. PT at Stockton (SP: TBD)

For many years, fans of Midwest and northeast teams wondered why MLB didn’t schedule most early series in warmer weather. Now, for two seasons they’ve made it happen. Just like the 2025 season, when they opened against the Dodgers and the Mariners on the road, the Tigers opening road trip has ended with a 4-2 record after a series victory over the Padres and then getting swept out of Arizona.

Of course, we have the voice of Sparky Anderson in our ears this time of year, reminding us to give it 40 games before making any definitive conclusions about a team. Even that only tells you so much, as teams evolve and change throughout a season to an even greater degree than they did in Sparky’s day. That would put up into the road series against division rivals in Kansas City from May 8-10 before the old skipper would say you really know the team you have for the season. Of course, the 2025 Tigers at the 40, 80, and even 120 game mark didn’t prepare us for the utter collapse of the club over the final five weeks of the season. Baseball.

Personally, while the 40-game thing makes sense as a quality sample before considering too much radical reaction, I’ve started to think more in terms of 10-game blocks, corresponding to two turns through the rotation. That also provides a little easy comparison with the old 16-game NFL schedule most of us grew up on. Thinking of it that way, the Tigers are down two scores early in the third quarter of their first game. Breaking it down like that is just more natural to me, avoiding wild overreactions to any short stretch of games, without just sitting back for a month and a half watching things unfold.

However you break it down, overreactions in either direction are pretty ridiculous at this point. Whether you were pretty confident in the Tigers heading into the season, or whether you think the club still has too many flaws to be a top threat in October, you should probably keep that energy through April. Or you can ride the rollercoaster. To each their own.

Slumber instead of lumber

The argument for the Tigers this year is pretty simple. They won 86 games in 2024, 87 in 2025, and they added one of the better starting pitchers in baseball and called up arguably the best prospect in baseball into their everyday lineup. Of course, Framber Valdez and Kevin McGonigle’s ability to put the Tigers over the top to finally win the division is predicated on the other regulars in the rotation and lineup handling their business as expected.

In the early going, Colt Keith and Dillon Dingler have been excellent, both showing some signs of building on their 2025 campaigns. Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson, who are needed to provide plenty of power and run production, have scuffled. Kerry Carpenter meanwhile, has started off the year in a deep funk, striking out 12 times in just 25 plate appearances.

Obviously the Tigers need those three bats to give the Tigers similar production to last year, at a minimum. You’d love the three to be more consistent as well, but there aren’t many in the game, even among “All-Star” caliber hitters, who bang out good production month after month without any slumps during a baseball season. As long as they combine for 80 homers or more with a good combined on-base percentage, the Tigers’ run production will be in a good place. Likewise, a really bad year from one of them could really undercut the offense.

Torkelson really seemed to settle into his major league groove last season, avoiding the catastrophic slumps that plagued him from 2022-2024. He’s also the one with the most disciplined approach and should benefit somewhat more from the ABS challenge system than the rest. Of course, he’s got to use those challenges wisely to get the most of it, and that’s a unique new skill introduced to MLB this season.

Greene I just don’t worry about except physically. He’d trended steadily better and better through four seasons in the league until falling apart in the second half last year. At age 25, he’s just into what should be his prime years, but he also lost another step in the speed department last year. If you’re feeling worried about Greene’s ability to get back on track at the plate, that’s fair. I’m not, but it is at least clear that his defensive value has slipped considerably and there’s no injury to pin it on. Seeing Hinch pinch-run Jahmai Jones for Greene in the top of the ninth on Wednesday was just another signal that Greene’s once modestly above average speed is gone and that’s going to continue to ding his defensive profile.

As for Carpenter, this is where I get a little more concerned. Carpenter’s plate discipline and contact ability have always been mediocre, but he’s more than made up for it by pulling the ball in the air a lot and doing plenty of damage. However, he’s also been riddled with back and hamstring issues over the past few years, and unlike the other two sluggers, Carpenter isn’t in his mid-20’s, and is instead closing in on 29 years old this summer. For a baseball player in this era, that’s getting into middle age where hitting smarts have to make up for physical decline. At least Carpenter is moving well and looks healthy right now, so hopefully he’ll get going, but another season trying to play through nagging injuries will do his numbers no good.

Beyond Keith and Dingler, obviously the big story here is McGonigle. He’s shown himself fully ready to handle major league pitching, producing plenty of hard contact, plenty of hits, plenty of walks, and minimal strikeouts. He holds a 187 wRC+ through six major league games, with 12 percent walk and strikeout rates. Even better, he’s been a bit unlucky and his control of the strikezone has been elite in the very early going. As promised since early on last season, the Tigers have an absolute gem here. His upgraded defense and sprint times have just been icing on the cake.

In other, yes it’s extremely early news, Max Clark is off to a nice start with the Mud Hens. He needs that seasoning in my opinion, whereas McGonigle did not, but hopefully Clark will be ready to bring that athleticism, discipline, and contact ability to the Tigers lineup by mid-season if not sooner.

Starting rotation

You can take it as a positive early sign or be frustrated by the fact that the Tigers’ rotation did their job pretty well and yet the team only came away with two wins. They got four excellent starts, one poor one from Jack Flaherty, and one from Justin Verlander that was just bad. The Tigers will do well this season if that’s how most six game stretches play out.

Having Tarik Skubal and Framber Valdez atop the rotation has looked every bit as good as expected. Casey Mize stuggled to spot his fastball and breaking stuff early on in his outing against the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, but he managed to survive with some heavy doses of his splitter and his command improved as he went along. He finished his six inning outing with one earned run allowed, racking up 15 whiffs and seven strikeouts on the night. The interaction between his two fastball types and the splitter has never looked better to me.

Verlander however, just had nothing for the Diamondbacks on Monday. He’s always conserved his energy in early spring and paced himself for a seven month season. The fact that his velocity was down to 93.2 mph from his 2025 average (93.9 mph) isn’t my concern, particularly as he was feeling for his mechanics the whole outing. His fastball command and ability to shape and spot his breaking stuff were wildly inconsistent. We’ll see better command as long as he’s feeling healthy, but for all of us already fearful of a failed last stand for the 43-year-old future Hall of Famer, a little reassurance in the form of some quality starts early on would help the cause over the rest of the month. His margin for error is reduced from even 2-3 years ago, and he’s relying on command of the full pitch mix these days.

Bullpen issues forever

Unfortunately, the reconstructed bullpen couldn’t give us even a week of peace before the Tigers’ unending struggles in this department reared their head again. The Tigers signed Kyle Finnegan after getting some good work from him in the second half last year. That looks like a good addition. The Tigers got the right-hander using his splitter a lot more than he did in Washington, with good effect. This spring his velocity has been up a touch and his slider has looked pretty good as well. After pitching in semi-obscurity for a team notorious for its poor pitching development, the Tigers may have caught Finnegan at the right time to get a peak season or two out of him.

On the downside, Kenley Jansen gave the Tigers one good outing to close out the Padres on Opening Day, but then was called into a desperate situation on Tuesday after Drew Anderson got into trouble trying to hold a big lead for a second inning. Will Vest came on and was wild for a few hitters, digging the hole much deeper, until finally righting the ship and getting the first two outs of the inning. By then he was at 27 pitches, and Hinch decided to turn to Jansen. The veteran relief great fired two cutters down to get to a 1-1 count, and then fired a third right into rookie Jose Fernandez’s sweet spot and it got launched for the second home run of the rookie’s major league debut.

Leaving aside the fact that Jansen’s strikeout rates took a big hit in 2025 and he fits better as a setup level reliever now and shouldn’t be the automatic closer, this was also one of those moments where Hinch gave a new reliever an early test and it really blew up in his face. Anderson is still getting used to relief work. Taking his strong first inning and saying thank you very much, was probably the move. Vest in the eighth, Jansen in the ninth, no one has to enter in the middle of someone else’s jam. Hinch believes in testing guys in unfamiliar scenarios early in the season, and there’s some wisdom in that, but in this case, Vest struggled, and that led to Jansen, who has spent his career mainly pitching with a clean slate in the ninth even throughout the long prime of his career. Now that’s he’s just a setup caliber reliever rather than an ace closer, having to put him into fireman situations is rather less than ideal.

The Tigers boosted their depth and got some insurance for the rotation this offseason by signing left-hander Enmanuel de Jesus and right-hander Drew Anderson after both pitched well as starters in South Korea last year. Quite a few teams have found bargains coming back from the KBO, and both pitchers looked good in spring camp and have had some time to get acclimated to both the bullpen and the MLB ball. They both have enough stuff to start, and should give A.J. Hinch a lot of flexibiity in long and middle relief, but early on their command out of the pen has been shaky. Brant Hurter looks like his usual solid self, while Tyler Holton had a good spring and his velocity has been up.

Overall, this looks like a better bullpen than in 2025, with a lot more depth and flexibility. But the Tigers still lack one killer reliever to pair with Vest, particularly as even the best relievers, and Vest has arguably been a top ten reliever in baseball since August of 2024 tend toward up and down seasons. Finnegan might give them that much, and at least adds some swing and miss that the bullpen has lacked. Still, feeling comfortable with a relief group just isn’t something we’re familiar with, and until Vest illustrates that he’s still got lockdown mode engaged and someone else steps up, we’ll be on the edge holding leads late as usual. We’d also be remiss not to give credit to a pretty dangerous Diamondbacks lineup.

So, after six games, there is still plenty to like over last year, and plenty to worry about too. No different than I felt during spring training. The Tigers have their share of strengths in the rotation and young hitters entering their prime, but the free swinging middle of the order power bats and the need for another dominant reliever in the pen could prove their undoing.