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SAN FRANCISCO — Jared Oliva is 30 years old and hasn’t played in a big-league game since 2021, but that’s set to change after the Giants included the speedy outfielder on their Opening Day roster.

Buster Posey and the Giants opted for Oliva over 24-year-old outfield prospect Luis Matos, who was designated for assignment Wednesday ahead of San Francisco’s season opener against the Yankees.

“With a lot of hard conversations the last few days, that one was one that stood out as a real bright spot,” Posey said of Oliva, “to be able tell him he was on the team.”

Oliva, who led the Cactus League with 14 stolen bases, will serve as a pinch runner and the second backup outfielder alongside Jerar Encarnacion. Since appearing in 26 games for the Pirates between 2021 and 2022, Oliva spent three seasons in the minor leagues for three different teams.

“Honestly, pretty emotional,” Oliva said. “It’s been a lot of hard times. It’s been very tough. A lot of times looking at yourself in the mirror and feeling like you’re going against the current sometimes.”

The Giants chose to go with Oliva, a career .179 hitter, and Encarnacion, a slugger signed out of the Mexican League in 2024, over Matos, a onetime top prospect who was out of options.

“The Matos one was hard. Been a Giant for a while now. … He’s shown flashes of being a really good big leaguer,” Posey said. “Ultimately [we] felt like carrying Oliva with what he can do on the basepaths, defensively, is a weapon for us. … With Jerar, the hope is to have some power.”

There weren’t too many other surprises — or decisions left to be made — as the Giants finalized their Opening Day roster after top prospect Bryce Eldridge was optioned last week.

Rule 5 pick Daniel Susac won the backup catcher job over Eric Haase after putting together a strong spring at the plate. The Giants would have to offer him back to the Athletics if he wasn’t on the 26-man roster. Blake Sabol, in 2022, was the last Rule 5 pick to make the Giants’ roster out of spring training.

“I really wanted to see which player stood out the most, and both played well,” Posey said. “Daniel, I think the most important part, carried himself well defensively and swung the bat well also.”

Haase was released, leaving the Giants with only one other catcher in the minor leagues who has played the position at the major-league level, 30-year-old Logan Porter, who will be joined by Jesus Rodriguez and Diego Cartaya at Triple-A Sacramento.

The Giants had indicated that they wanted to carry three left-handers in their bullpen and made good on those intentions with Ryan Borucki, Matt Gage and Erik Miller.

Borucki, who worked with pitching coach Justin Meccage with the Pirates, was signed to a major-league deal this week after being cut by the White Sox. Joey Lucchesi, who was also brought into camp late, was granted his release and signed a major-league deal with the Angels.

Despite two days off over the first five days of the season, the Giants went with a 13-man pitching staff rather than using the favorable schedule to carry Matos or another position player into the season.

Ryan Walker and Miller are expected to split closing duties in a bullpen that also includes long men JT Brubaker and Keaton Winn, with Jose Butto, Caleb Kilian and Gage providing middle relief.

Spencer Bivens and Tristan Beck, who both had roles in prior year’s bullpens, were optioned to Triple-A.

“The Beck and Bivens decisions were tough,” Posey said. “Guys that have played roles with us (and) this year are certainly going to help us at some point. We’re confident of that. Excited for guys like Kilian to get an opportunity. The pickup we had with Borucki gives us a third lefty out of the bullpen. Brubaker’s a guy that’s going to give us length. He’s been there and done that before.”

Kilian, a former Giants prospect, made the team as a non-roster invitee after flashing a heater in the upper 90s and posting a 0.96 ERA in eight spring appearances.

Fellow reliever Reiver Sanmartin, who suffered a hip flexor strain in a World Baseball Classic exhibition, was transferred to the 60-day injured list to create room on the 40-man roster.

Left-hander Sam Hentges (right knee surgery/left shoulder surgery) and right-hander Joel Peguero (left hamstring strain) will start the year on the 15-day IL.

SF Giants Opening Day roster

Pitchers (13): LHP Ryan Borucki, RHP JT Brubaker, RHP José Buttó, LHP Matt Gage, RHP Adrian Houser, RHP Caleb Kilian, RHP Tyler Mahle, LHP Erik Miller, LHP Robbie Ray, RHP Landen Roupp, RHP Ryan Walker, RHP Logan Webb, RHP Keaton Winn

Catchers (2): Patrick Bailey, Daniel Susac  

Infielders (6): Willy Adames, Luis Arraez, Matt Chapman, Rafael Devers, Christian Koss, Casey Schmitt

Outfielders (5): Harrison Bader, Jerar Encarnacion, Jung Hoo Lee, Jared Oliva, Heliot Ramos

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We don’t yet know when, or if Jose Franco will take the mound for the Cincinnati Reds, but we do now know he’s going to have a very good opportunity to do so within the next two weeks.

With Opening Day set for tomorrow – Thursday, March 26th – and with Nick Lodolo needing a trip to the injured list while his blister recovers, Franco has been added to the team’s Opening Day roster as depth. MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon relayed the news earlier on Wednesday, noting that Caleb Ferguson was also predictably placed on the 15-day IL to begin the 2026 season.

Franco was added to the 40-man roster over the winter after a 2025 season that saw him pitch to a 3.11 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with 118 K and 54 BB in 110.0 IP split between AA Chattanooga and AAA Louisville. It was his second straight solid season after he missed all of 2023 while recovering from arm surgery, and while he’s been used almost exclusively as a starter he’ll now be tasked with a depth role to begin 2026.

In essence, Cincinnati is leaning into carrying him as a long man in the ‘six for five’ starter scenario they originally planned to use before the blisters and injuries to the rest of the starting staff. Given that Nick Lodolo will be out for nearly two weeks, he’s almost assured to get at least one chance to pitch in bulk while on the active roster.

Congrats to Jose on making the bigs!

Here’s the complete Opening Day roster:

Catcher (2) – Tyler Stephenson, Jose Trevino

Infield (6) – Sal Stewart, Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Eugenio Suárez, Nathaniel Lowe

Sal Stewart (1) – Sal Stewart

Outfield (4) – Will Benson, Noelvi Marte, TJ Friedl, Dane Myers

Starters (6) – Andrew Abbott, Brady Singer, Rhett Lowder, Chase Burns, Brandon Williamson, Jose Franco

Bullpen (7) – Emilio Pagan, Graham Ashcraft, Tony Santillan, Pierce Johnson, Brock Burke, Sam Moll, Connor Phillips

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The New York Yankees and San Francisco Giants open the 2026 season at Oracle Park on Wednesday, March 25, and I’ve got a trio of MLB picks to cover you for the action.

My top Yankees vs. Giants predictions expect San Francisco ace Logan Webb to have his hands full navigating a tough and talented New York lineup tonight. 

Yankees vs Giants props for March 25

Pick	Odds
Logan Webb Under 6.5 strikeouts	-146
Ben Rice Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI	-115
Jazz Chisholm Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI	+130

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The Brewers have officially released their active roster for Opening Day! As of a few days ago, when the Brewers optioned Robert Gasser, Logan Henderson, and Shane Drohan to the minor leagues, it seemed certain which players would end up making the final cut. But a late trade threw one curveball into the decision-making process, so while 25 of these 26 players were expected as of this weekend, one wasn’t even in the organization.

That “one” is right-handed pitcher Jake Woodford, acquired from the Rays for minor-leaguer K.C. Hunt on Tuesday. Woodford is out of minor league options, so that makes Easton McGee the odd man out; he has been optioned to Triple-A Nashville.

The Brewers also officially placed several players on the injured list, and there is nothing unexpected here. Akil Baddoo, whose strained hamstring is expected to keep him out until June, has been placed on the 60-day IL, which opened the 40-man roster spot for Woodford. Steward Berroa, Quinn Priester, Craig Yoho, and Rob Zastryzny all head to the shorter IL (10 days for Berroa, 15 for the pitchers). (Dave gave updates about these players’ expected return dates yesterday.)

Besides the Woodford/McGee swap, everything else is as expected. A quick review with a few notes:

Position Players

Catchers: William Contreras and Gary Sánchez
Infielders: Jake Bauers, David Hamilton, Joey Ortiz, Luis Rengifo, Brice Turang, and Andrew Vaughn
Outfielders: Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick, Brandon Lockridge, Garrett Mitchell, and Christian Yelich

These positional designations, used by the team, are of course not going to be completely accurate. Yelich will mostly play as the designated hitter (though the team keeps saying they aren’t afraid to use him in left field, and did so on Monday to back that up). Bauers will play sometimes, maybe frequently, in the outfield.

As for things to watch early in the season that could affect the roster, I am keeping my eye on a few, and I’ll order them in terms of my perceived urgency:

• What are the Brewers getting out of the presumed center field platoon of Mitchell and Lockridge?
• Does Ortiz look like a typical below-average, slick-fielding middle infielder, or is he as bad as last year? And how many of his at-bats are going to Hamilton?
• Does Rengifo look like a guy who can hold down the fort at third base all season?
• Is Bauers, coming off a Ruth-ian spring, making it impossible to not play him against every right-handed pitcher?
• How is Jett Williams looking at Triple-A Nashville?

The answers to these questions could determine whether this group is the same or not when summer rolls around.

Pitchers

Here’s who’ll be coming off the mound for the Brewers to start the season.

Starters: Kyle Harrison (L), Jacob Misiorowski (R), Chad Patrick (R), Brandon Sproat (R), Brandon Woodruff (R)
Relievers: Grant Anderson (R), Aaron Ashby (L), DL Hall (L), Jared Koenig (L), Trevor Megill (R), Abner Uribe (R), Jake Woodford (R), Ángel Zerpa (L)

Notably, the Brewers have just one lefty in the starting rotation… but more than half of the pitchers coming out of the bullpen are left-handed. I’m not sure how unusual that is or not, but I don’t remember the last time the Brewers did it.

Of course, Aaron Ashby and/or DL Hall could end up starting some games at some point this season, and Robert Gasser is standing in the wings at Nashville. But the Brewers have announced their starters for the first six games of the season, and they all come out of the starting group listed here.

Once again, questions I’m keeping an eye on:

• How are the young guys holding up in the rotation, and are any of them going to be replaced early in the season by the standby options in the minors (Gasser, Logan Henderson, Shane Drohan, others)?
• Who is going to have to move aside when Priester (hopefully) returns (supposedly early May), and is this group going to make that decision difficult?
• How is Woodruff’s velocity, and if it’s a little scary, is he compensating somehow?
• Are we getting about what we’re expecting from everyone in the bullpen? And what are we expecting from Zerpa?

Those are early roster-related questions I’m keeping my eyes on. I’m just glad we have real baseball to watch again!

When the San Francisco Giants and New York Yankees Opening Day rosters take the field at Oracle Park this afternoon for the first game of the Major League Baseball season, the Arizona Wildcats baseball program will be well represented.

Three of the six former Wildcats to appear on Opening Day rosters will be present in San Francisco: the Giants’ and Jared Oliva and Daniel Susac and the Yankees’ Austin Wells.

The three players represent the range of experience of Arizona alums in MLB. While Wells is a well-known commodity in the big leagues, Oliva and Susac are looking to make a name for themselves this season, Oliva as a journeyman outfielder and Susac as an up and coming catcher.

Here are all the former Arizona Wildcats on 2026 Opening Day rosters listed alphabetically.

Kevin Ginkel, Arizona Diamondbacks

Year in Majors: 8th

Ginkel is looking for a bounce back year after struggling last season and missing the last few months with a shoulder injury. He had a 7.36 ERA last season in 29 appearances. Ginkel should have a prominent role on a D-backs bullpen in need of dependable arms. The 32-year old Ginkel is two years removed a great 2024 year when he recorded a 3.21 ERA over 70 innings.

Scott Kingery, Chicago Cubs

Year in Majors: 7th

Kingery is back on a big league roster after being mostly out of MLB from 2021-25. Kingery appeared in 19 games with the Angels last season, recording four hits in 29 plate appearances. Kingery had a so-so Spring Training for the Cubs, hitting .204 in 24 games. Making the Cubs Opening Day roster comes as a bit of a surprise. He provides a solid glove at second base but will likely play sparingly.

Jared Oliva, San Francisco Giants

Year in Majors: 3rd (first since 2021)

Oliva, a journeyman outfielder, made the Giants roster after putting together an eye-catching Spring Training. Oliva’s bat (.375 batting average) and speed on the bases sealed his spot. Oliva has spent practically his entire career in the minors, save 26 appearances with Pittsburgh in 2020-21. He’s shown decent pop at the AAA level, but it’s hard to know if his hitting will translate to big league pitching. However long his tenure in the Giants clubhouse, Oliva’s story to the big leagues after spending most of a decade in the minors is an inspiring one.

Rob Refsnyder, Seattle Mariners

Year in Majors: 11th

Refsnyder is back on the West Coast after spending the majority of his career in the American League East (aside: Refsnyder is on his seventh team, all in the AL). The 34-year old provides a reliable bat with a knack for hitting lefties. Playing for the Red Sox last season, Refsnyder batted .304 against left-handed pitchers compared to .212 versus righties. Refsnyder’s plate approach has improved over the years. The Athletic profiled his hitting philosophy last year.

Daniel Susac, San Francisco Giants

Year in Majors: 1st

Susac is making his Major League debut for the Giants. The former first round pick by the A’s was picked up by San Francisco in the Rule 5 Draft. Susac is the second in his family to serve as the Giants’ backup catcher; his older brother Andrew played behind Buster Posey in 2014-15. Whether the younger Susac sees more playing time in the black and orange will depend on whether he can carry over his solid minor league batting numbers to the big leagues.

Austin Wells, New York Yankees

Year in Majors: 4th

Wells is the most high profile former Wildcat on this list and the guy who is under the most pressure as he enters his second season as the the Yankees’ starting catcher. Wells is considered an excellent framer of pitches, a skill that may lose some of its value under MLB’s new automated ball-strike system. Offensively, Wells hasn’t lived up to the hype. Last season he batted .219 with a .711 OPS. Those numbers earned him a lot of boos in the Bronx. The Yankees are hopeful that Wells’ strong showing in the World Baseball Classic competing for the Dominican Republic will mark a turnaround at the plate.

The Tampa Bay Rays have officially finalized the 26-man roster for the 2026 season, including six players to the injured list.

Here is your 2026 Rays for Opening Day:

LEFT-HANDED PITCHERS (4): Garrett Cleavinger, Steven Matz, Shane McClanahan, Ian Seymour

RIGHT-HANDED PITCHERS (9): Bryan Baker, Joe Boyle, Mason Englert, Yoendrys Gómez, Griffin Jax, Kevin Kelly, Nick Martinez, Drew Rasmussen, Cole Sulser

CATCHERS (2): Hunter Feduccia*, Nick Fortes

INFIELDERS (5): Jonathan Aranda*, Junior Caminero, Yandy Díaz, Carson Williams, Ben Williamson

OUTFIELDERS (6): Jonny DeLuca, Jake Fraley*, Cedric Mullins*, Richie Palacios*, Chandler Simpson*, Ryan Vilade

10-DAY INJURED LIST (2): INF Gavin Lux*, INF Taylor Walls**

15-DAY INJURED LIST (2): RHP Ryan Pepiot, RHP Edwin Uceta

60-DAY INJURED LIST (2): RHP Manuel Rodríguez (recovery from right elbow surgery), RHP Steven Wilson

*left-handed batter
**switch hitting batter

It should be noted that both Palacios and Vilade are capable of manning infield positions and are in play for second base roles with Lux on the injured list with a shoulder injury, while short stop should be primarily manned by Williams following an oblique strain for Walls.

As the final move, the Rays have elected to add LHP Cam Booser to the 40-man roster, but are optioning him to Triple-A. To make room, reliever Wilson — acquired from the White Sox alongside reliever Gomez in the OF Everson Pereira/UTIL Tanner Murray trade — was moved to the 60-day injured list with a lower back injury.

With spring training having finally drawn to a close and the first official day of the 2026 Major League Baseball season arriving, the Colorado Rockies have formally announced their Opening Day 26-man roster.

Names in bold denote those players making an Opening Day roster for the first time.

Starting Rotation

• LHP Kyle Freeland, No. 21
• RHP Michael Lorenzen, No. 24
• LHP Jose Quintana, No. 62
• RHP Tomoyuki Sugano, No. 11
• RHP Ryan Feltner, No. 18

Entering his tenth MLB season, left-handed pitcher Kyle Freeland will once again lead the Rockies’ pitching rotation as the Opening Day Starter. This will mark his franchise-record fifth time getting the nod for Opening Day as he takes the mound on Friday, March 27th against the Miami Marlins.

Behind Freeland is a rotation that looks nigh-unrecognizable compared to previous seasons. Only right-handed Ryan Feltner returns in the no. 5 spot as he looks to rebound from an injury-shorted 2025 campaign.

Right-handed pitchers Michael Lorenzen and Tomoyuki Sugano, as well as left-handed pitcher Jose Quintana, are all veterans joining the Rockies for the first time as off-season free agent acquisitions.

Bullpen

• RHP Zach Agnos, No. 36
• RHP Chase Dollander, No. 32
• RHP Jimmy Herget, No. 44
• RHP Jaden Hill, No. 0
• RHP Juan Mejia, No. 47
• RHP Antonio Senzatela, No. 49
• RHP Victor Vodnik, No. 38
• LHP Brennan Bernardino, No. 83

Right-handed pitchers Antonio Senzatela and Chase Dollander will both start the season in the bullpen after competing for the fifth rotation spot during spring training. Senzatela missed valuable time to be stretched out as he joined Venezuela for the World Baseball Classic, while Dollander will be given the opportunity to face big league hitters as he continues to work on his mechanics and arsenal.

Right-handed reliever Seth Halvorsen was optioned to Triple-A Albuquerque to find his footing after a season-ending elbow injury and a difficult spring training saw him struggle to dial in his command. Fellow righties Zach Agnos, Jimmy Herget, Jaden Hill, Juan Mejia, and Victor Vodnik are all returning to the bullpen after playing significant roles there in 2025.

The Rockies’ lone left-handed reliever to start the season is Brennan Bernardino, who arrived via trade with the Boston Red Sox during the off-season.

Off-season waiver claim and right-handed pitcher Keegan Thompson has been designated for assignment

Catchers

• C Hunter Goodman, No. 15
• C Brett Sullivan, No. 26

As expected, 2025 All-Star and Silver Slugger Hunter Goodman will be the Rockies’ primary catcher to start the 2026 campaign. Non-roster invitee Brett Sullivan earned the backup catcher role after a solid showing in Cactus League play where he hit .410/.452/.821 with five doubles, a triple, three home runs, two stolen bases, and struck out just three times in 39 at-bats. He also demonstrated solid defense behind the plate.

Braxton Fulford has been optioned to Triple-A Albuquerque, where he will get regular at-bats as the Isotopes’ starting catcher.

Infielders

• 1B TJ Rumfield, No. 7
• 2B Edouard Julien, No. 6
• 3B Kyle Karros, No. 12
• SS Ezequiel Tovar, No. 14

Outfielders

• OF Jordan Beck, No. 27
• OF Brenton Doyle, No. 9
• OF Jake McCarthy, No. 31
• OF Mickey Moniak, No. 22

Utility

• Willi Castro, No. 3
• Troy Johnston, No. 20
• Ryan Ritter, No. 8

Only four of the Rockies’ non-catching position players were on last year’s Opening Day roster: Gold Glove winners Ezequiel Tovar and Brenton Doyle, as well as outfielders Jordan Beck and Mickey Moniak. Everyone else is either a new arrival from the off-season or making the Opening Day roster for the first time in their career.

Third baseman Kyle Karros and utility-man Ryan Ritter both made their MLB debuts last season and earned spots on the Opening Day roster during spring training. Karros will be the Rockies’ every-day third baseman while Ritter has taken on super-utility duties by learning outfield and first base during camp.

Edouard Julien, Jake McCarthy, and TJ Rumfield all joined the Rockies via trade over the off-season while Willi Castro was a free agent acquisition. Julien will likely be the Rockies’ back-up second baseman behind Castro, though both are able to play multiple positions. McCarthy will play corner outfield when he is not spelling Brenton Doyle in center field.

Troy Johnston, a waiver claim, made the roster after a solid spring and an injury to incumbent Tyler Freeman. He can play first base and both corner outfield positions.

TJ Rumfield, who arrived from the New York Yankees in exchange for right-handed reliever Angel Chivilli, was the standout player of spring training. He earned the starting first base job after hitting .286/.359/.554 in 23 games with five home runs and only two strikeouts over 56 at-bats. He was also the Rockies’ Abby Greer Spring Training MVP award winner.

Injured List

• 1B Blaine Crim, No. 16 (Left oblique strain) (10-Day)
• UTIL Tyler Freeman, No. 2 (Back tightness/inflammation) (10-Day)
• OF Zac Veen, No. 13 (Right knee contusion) (10-Day)
• LHP McCade Brown, No. 51 (Right shoulder inflammation) (15-Day)
• RHP RJ Petit, No. 58 (Tommy John surgery) (15-Day)
• DH Kris Bryant, No. 23 (Lumbar degenerative disk disease) (60-Day)
• RHP Jeff Criswell, No. 46 (Tommy John surgery) (60-Day)
• RHP Pierson Ohl, No. 40 (Tommy John surgery) (60-Day)

The Rockies will start the season with eight players on the injured list. Right-handed pitchers Pierson Ohl—acquired via trade with the Minnesota Twins—and RJ Petit—a Rule 5 draft selection from the Detroit Tigers—both required Tommy John surgery before the season started. Meanwhile, RHP Jeff Criswell is rehabbing from his own surgery and is expected back in April or May.

Blaine Crim, Tyler Freeman, Zac Veen, and McCade Brown all missed significant time this spring due to a variety of ailments and will not be ready to start the season.

Kris Bryant was assigned to the 60-day injured list on the first day of spring training. He is not expected to play this season.

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In 1989, the Royals had the third-best record in baseball, but fell short of a playoff spot because of the “Bash Brothers” Oakland Athletics and the lack of a Wild Card in baseball. They had an emerging superstar in Bo Jackson, a future Hall of Famer in George Brett, the reigning AL Cy Young winner in Bret Saberhagen, familiar veterans like Willie Wilson and Frank White, and solid young players like Danny Tartabull, Kevin Seitzer, Tom Gordon, Mark Gubicza, and Jeff Montgomery. Then they went out and added two big free agents, poaching 19-game winner Storm Davis from the A’s, then in a coup, signing reigning NL Cy Young winner Mark Davis away from the Padres. I asked my dad if we could get World Series tickets.

The Royals did not make the World Series.

Both Davis free agents were flops. Injuries plagued Jackson, Tartabull, and Saberhagen. The Royals finished 75-86, the fourth-worst record in the league, and their worst season since 1970.

Still, I was an 11-year old kid, whose team was demonstrably good, and had made some big splashy moves. It was also one of the first years I had followed baseball. I thought the team might be good in 2015, but I was a jaded, cynical adult by then. There is something about being young and innocent and willing to allow yourself to buy in to be excited about a team.

Think back – when were you the most excited about a Royals season on the eve of Opening Day? Was it a team that fulfilled your hopes? Or like the 1990, a team that fell flat on its face?

This is a weird post. I’ll just go ahead and get that out of the way. And then I’m going to head into a brief-ish aside.

I used to generate a lot more content. On the rare occasion I interrogate this fact, the subsequent thoughts fall into a few camps. One is that, well, I’m just busier. My bit of unsolicited life advice framed as a statement: one small child in a both-parents-work household with no non-hired help nearby is imminently doable; two small children with the same setup is really difficult. 2025 was also just a brutal year all-around, I’m not sure what 2026 represents in that regard yet. But, the other hand is that for me, MLB is shoving itself more into the “abstractly/conceptually interesting” camp rather than the “directly engaging camp.” My favorite part of baseball was roster construction, but the expanded playoffs have brutalized the idea (as expected). On top of that, there’s a bunch of non-player-related uncertainty (different balls, different rules), which both dampen the rewards to roster construction but also make baseball feel kinda serialized — “Oh, that was the year that X” — perhaps too much. I don’t know. Anyway, the combination of having less time and feeling like learning baseball things is less consequential because rosters are just kind of a morass of “we sorta tried” these days is a bummer.

Okay, I got that out of the way. And having done so, I’m going to talk about Spring Training.

The Braves won three-fourths of their official Grapefruit League contests, finishing 21-7. Even the mighty Dodgers couldn’t catch up — the Braves’ total victory over both spring leagues wasn’t assured until late, but the Dodgers ended up finishing 20-9 in the Cactus League. This, of course, means nothing. You know it means nothing, and even if it meant something, Spring Training during a World Baseball Classic year would mean even less. (Though, of course, the Braves won while missing arguably their best player for much of Spring Training…) But, it’s useful to occasionally reevaluate whether the things we think we know are true are… true. So, here we are.

I went back to 2016 (because that’s the year we have “modern” playoff odds memorialized on FanGraphs). For those years, I pulled teams if they:

1. Won either the Cactus or Grapefruit League; or
2. Didn’t win either league, but had a record better than the winner of one of those leagues.

This gave me 24 team-seasons, excluding 2020. Most years had two or three teams in this set; 2017 has four, because the Angels “won” the Cactus League with a .588 winning percentage, while three Grapefruit League teams fared better. One of those teams was the 2023 Braves, who had a .643 Spring winning percentage — behind the Cardinals that year, but still good enough to be included. (And we all know how 2023 went for the Braves!)

For each of those team-seasons, I then pulled both their actual end-of-season winning percentage, but also their before-the-season-started final projected wins point estimate. All of this is summarized below.

Some of this stuff is kinda interesting. The teams here have a collective 85 win-ish projection (whether you include 2026 or not). Actual performance for these teams ended up around 87 wins, so basically a two-win swing. It seems tempting to say that superlative Spring Training teams go on to beat their projections in the regular season, but nah — pretty much any statistical test you can muster shows no effect, something underscored by the fact that despite the two-win swing overall, ten of the 24 teams performed worse than expected. These findings are also robust to pretty much any kind of drill-down — excluding “extra” teams that didn’t win their Spring league, only taking the best team each Spring, etc. etc.

Bottom line, you already knew this: it doesn’t matter. The 2016 Nationals had an insane Spring Training, as did the 2024 Orioles. Those teams actually did do much better than expected. But the 2025 Giants are next, and they ended up at .500, as expected. The 2016 Diamondbacks weren’t supposed to be good, had a great Spring Training, and then imploded during the regular season.

You probably could’ve surmised all of this. But now you know. Yay, the Braves won in Spring Training. That’ll have to be its own reward, such as it is. Overall, the Braves will have to scrap for a playoff spot, as their injury situation and general roster malaise make this much more of a 2019-2021 situation than the expected-and-consummated dominance they managed in 2022-2023.