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Turner leading off in Phillies' Opening Day lineup originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

Trea Turner? Kyle Schwarber?

In Game 1 of 162, it’s Turner in the leadoff spot against Nationals left-hander Mackenzie Gore.

The Phillies have been interested in seeing what their offense can look like with Turner leading off. Manager Rob Thomson has said that for now, Turner will lead off against lefties and Schwarber against righties.

Schwarber has led off in 83.6% of his plate appearances as a Phillie and he’s certainly performed, setting the major-league record last season in leadoff homers while also leading the National League with 106 walks. Pretty valuable skill set atop a lineup.

But there’s also some more RBI potential if Schwarber hits second, behind Turner, or fourth, behind Bryce Harper and Alec Bohm. You can pretty much bank on Schwarber hitting 38-plus home runs in a healthy season, so putting that bat a spot or two after Harper’s near-.400 on-base percentage could lead to more crooked numbers.

It can’t hurt to try out a couple of variations throughout a long season to see what works best. For Turner to give the Phillies what they’d want from him in the leadoff spot, though, he needs to be able to revert to his table-setting ways.

From 2015-22, Turner hit .303 with a .356 on-base percentage. As a Phillie since, Turner has hit .279 with a .328 on-base percentage, averaging 15 fewer hits and 10 fewer walks per 162 games.

He is still a very good player. He hit .295 with 21 homers and an .807 OPS in 121 games last season but it was his second straight year of extremes. Both years, he carried the offense at one point for 6-8 weeks with power. Both years, he also experienced prolonged cold spells. Ideally, there’s a better balance in 2025 and beyond for a shortstop signed through 2033.

Turner and the leadoff spot isn’t the only lineup focus. Perhaps more important than the structure of the one-two hitters is whether or not Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh can bounce back. Stott’s batting average fell from .280 to .245 last season. He dealt with a bad elbow for most of the way which likely affected his performance — this season should give us an indication of how much. Marsh couldn’t find the same offensive rhythm he found in 2023, when he hit .277 with a .372 on-base percentage that would have ranked ninth in the National League if he wasn’t 30 mere plate appearances away from qualifying. The Phillies know that both 27-year-olds have the ability in them, it’s just a matter of them both doing it again in the same year to help supplement the offensive core.

Here is the Phils’ Opening Day lineup behind ace Zack Wheeler:

1. Trea Turner, SS
2. Bryce Harper, 1B (L)
3. Alec Bohm, 3B
4. Kyle Schwarber, DH (L)
5. J.T. Realmuto, C
6. Max Kepler, LF (L)
7. Nick Castellanos, RF
8. Bryson Stott, 2B (L)
9. Brandon Marsh, CF (L)

Five left-handed hitters in the lineup against a lefty starter is an unusually high number, but the Phillies want to play Kepler every day and give Marsh more opportunities against southpaws. The other factor is the opponent himself. Gore is a talented 26-year-old starter who is only getting better, but he has reverse platoon splits, with lefties hitting .279/.377/.438 against him compared to .253/.325/.409 from righties.

The Mets enter the 2025 MLB season not only as playoff contenders, but as a team that is viewed as one of the very best in baseball.

It's been a huge leap over the last year for a franchise that began the 2024 campaign with legitimate hope that they were turning things around, but not much in the way of postseason expectations.

In last season's version of this story, I predicted that the Mets would win 86 games (they exceeded that mark by three wins) and nab the third Wild Card spot in the National League (which they did).

But even the most optimistic prognosticators had to be surprised at how far the 2024 Mets went, as they caught fire in the second half of the season, rode an incredible wave into the playoffs, took out the Brewers in the Wild Card Series on the back of the most dramatic home run in franchise history, ousted the Phillies in four games in the NLDS, and ultimately fell to the eventual World Series champion Dodgers in six games in the NLCS.

Because of the way the Mets finished last season, and the pixie dust that seemed to be sprinkled on them as they made their remarkable run, it had to be tempting for David Stearns and Co. to keep much of that group together.

But while the Mets re-signed some of the players whose contributions were huge last season (including Pete Alonso,Sean Manaea, and Jesse Winker), others are now playing elsewhere (Luis Severino, Jose Iglesias, Jose Quintana).

Of course, the biggest move the Mets made this past offseason also happened to be the most seismic one they've ever made: the signing of Juan Soto.

Along with Soto and a big chunk of players who were part of the 2024 squad, a new cast of characters including Clay Holmes, A.J. Minter, and Jose Siri will try to help New York not only get back to the playoffs, but be the last team standing at its conclusion.

Without further ado, here is our preview and prediction for the 2025 season...

What the Mets have going for them

After scoring the sixth-most runs in baseball last season, the Mets will return the bulk of that lineup while also adding Soto -- who had a .178 OPS+ last year while smacking a career-high 41 homers, driving in 109, and scoring a career-best 128 runs.

To say that the top of New York's lineup with Francisco Lindor at No. 1 and Soto at No. 2 is dynamic would be an understatement. But it doesn't stop there.

A returning Alonso (who will be looking to cash in after the season) along with Mark Vientos and Brandon Nimmo should provide serious punch in the middle of the lineup. Meanwhile, Winker and Starling Marte (who could split DH duties) and Jose Siri add pop to the lower half.

Two X-factors for the offense could be Francisco Alvarez (who is out until the end of April or a bit longer) and Brett Baty (who will begin the year as the regular second baseman in Jeff McNeil's absence).

The Mets should also have a very strong bullpen, which is a big step up from where they started last season. Anchored byEdwin Diaz, there are a plethora of arms that not only possess big-time stuff but the ability to pitch in the late innings.

That list includes Minter, Ryne Stanek, Reed Garrett, and Dedniel Núñez (who should be ready to contribute soon). And if high-upside, multi-inning options Jose Butto and Max Kranick excel, New York's bullpen could be elite.

The biggest question mark is the rotation, which will be led by Clay Holmes, Kodai Senga, and David Peterson early as Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas work their way back from injuries.

But while the starting staff will have a lot of pressure on it until Manaea returns (perhaps at the end of April) and Montas is back (in May or June), the strength the Mets possess elsewhere should allow them to persevere through any potential early hiccups in the rotation.

Even though most of the focus is rightfully on the players who broke camp on the big league club, it's impossible to ignore the fact that a handful of truly impact prospects could contribute in a big way this season -- potentially as early as the first half.

Names to watch there are right-handed pitchers Brandon Sproat, Nolan McLean, and Blade Tidwell, infielder Ronny Mauricio, and outfielder Drew Gilbert.

There's also a chance infielder/center fielder Jett Williams debuts in 2025.

The Mets will make the playoffs if...

If they stay relatively healthy and the starting rotation is at least average, the Mets should find themselves in October.

And if the rotation excels and/or gets a jolt by Sproat and/or McLean, New York could be headed for its first NL East title since 2015.

Something else to note here is that if serious reinforcements are needed around the trade deadline, Stearns and the front office are now in a spot where they'll likely be more than willing to part with some serious prospect capital in order to acquire it -- whether that's an impact starting pitcher or something else.

Most of these Mets can also draw on the experience of last year's battle for the playoffs and ensuing run, so they should be well-equipped to handle a tight race.

Also a plus is the steady Carlos Mendoza, who had the same demeanor, guiding hand, and communication skills for every day of last season in what was his first year as manager -- from 0-5 to Game 6 in Los Angeles.

The Mets will miss the playoffs if...

For every team, there's always a chance that injuries could derail a season. For a team as deep as the Mets, though, it would take a rash of lengthy injuries to top contributors in the lineup and the pitching staff.

If not injuries, the Mets could also be doomed by how ridiculously deep the National League is -- especially compared to the relatively weak American League.

For someone ranking the 10 best teams in baseball, it wouldn't be crazy to list seven NL teams (the Mets, Braves, Phillies, Dodgers, Padres, Diamondbacks, and Cubs) among them. It's also possible the Brewers are formidable again and the Reds take a step forward, which would set up a serious battle for the six playoff spots.

It is not impossible to envision a scenario where the Mets win 90 games and miss the playoffs, though it should be pointed out that every team that has won 90 games or more since the third Wild Card in each league was added has made the postseason.

Final record and playoff prediction

94-68
Second place in NL East
First Wild Card spot

The Mets will come close to winning the division, but the Braves will eke that out, leaving New York as the top Wild Card team.

New York will oust the Phillies in the Wild Card Series and take out the loaded Dodgers in the NLDS.

But the Mets' season will again end one step shy of the World Series, as they will fall to the Braves in the NLCS.

How Giants newcomer Koss locked up Opening Day roster spot originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area

CINCINNATI — Christian Koss was 14 years old when Buster Posey hit a grand slam off Cincinnati Reds right-hander Mat Latos in the 2012 NLDS, but he still remembers exactly where he was. He remembers where he was for Barry Bonds’ record-breaking homers, too. 

Koss was born in Riverside, grew up in Southern California and went to UC Irvine. His friends all cheered for the Dodgers or Angels, but the Koss family was an outlier. 

“It was tough,” he said, laughing. “I always loved orange growing up.”

The family was drawn to the team’s colors, and it certainly helped that Koss spent his childhood watching Bonds and then a dynasty. On Tuesday, his family found out that it’s safe to purchase a lot more orange clothing.

Koss was the big surprise on the Opening Day roster. He had a big spring, but he was in camp as a 27-year-old non-roster invitee who seemingly was blocked on the roster. He bats right-handed, which made the left-handed Brett Wisely and Grant McCray cleaner fits.

But the Giants went with Koss and fellow right-handed hitter Casey Schmitt. President of baseball operations Buster Posey said he’s not worried about the imbalance; the focus was on putting together the best roster, and both Schmitt and Koss bring a lot to the table.

“I think both of those guys give you nice versatility,” Posey said. “Schmitt is obviously great against left-handed pitching but as the spring went along I thought his at-bats against right-handed pitchers got a lot better. He defends well. Koss, the same thing, (plus) the versatility to play multiple positions on the infield. You probably could throw him in the outfield if you need to — he’s just that type of player. 

“He’s another one for me that I watched this spring that just carried himself with such a confidence at short or third or wherever he was playing. He’s just to me is the epitome of a baseball player and will go and do anything you ask him to do. We’re excited he’s on the team.” 

Koss had a .426 on-base percentage while looking comfortable all over the dirt this spring. He played outfield in winter ball and said he even has played first base in the past. The Giants view him as a strong baserunner, and initially that could be how he gets a lot of time late in games. The simple swing should be easily maintained as a bench player.  

“He made an impression from Day 1,” manager Bob Melvin said. “The style of play that we want to play, he embodies it.” 

Melvin delivered the news before Tuesday’s exhibition, and he said the Giants made a production of the whole thing. Koss later got to tell his parents and wife, who will be at Great American Ball Park this weekend, along with his two-year-old daughter. 

Koss said there were a lot of tears. Then the focus turned to travel logistics and preparing for his Major League Baseball debut.

“I don’t think it has really set in yet,” he said, smiling. 

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Alex Rodriguez on Yankee beards, Juan Soto and who will be in 2025 World Series originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

Alex Rodriguez says umpires stink.

No, not at calling balls and strikes. They smell, just like sweaty baseball players.

So, A-Rod is going to bat for umps in his latest commercial for Lysol Laundry Sanitizer that debuted on Opening Day.    

“Bacteria and sweat can lead to seriously stinky clothes, which I can attest as a player,” Rodriguez recently told NBC Local. “So, umpires get stinky, and we come in and help out.”

A-Rod’s World Series prediction

Those umpires are back behind the plate across the country today with the Major League Baseball season officially getting underway. How it ends this fall could come as a surprise if Rodriguez’s prediction plays out, with one team reaching the World Series for the first time in over 40 years.

“The one thing I will not sleep on is the Baltimore Orioles,” said Rodriguez, who hit 696 career home runs, the fifth most in MLB history. “The Baltimore Orioles I think can win 100 games. In many ways, everyone is talking about the Yankees and the Red Sox, but I think the Orioles have a chance to be the head of the class in the American League.”

The Orioles are not far removed from a triple-digit victory season, having gone 101-61 in 2023 for their winningest season since 1979. They followed that up with a 91-win campaign last year. But each season ended without a single postseason victory, with the O’s having been swept in the 2023 ALDS and 2024 Wild Card Series. Rodriguez believes that will change this season.

“I’m a big, big believer in continuity,” he said. “So, they’re a young team, think about them like they’re almost like juniors or seniors in college now, but they’ve come together. Freshman year, they came out and made a big splash. Sophomore year is always the toughest, plus they had a tough injury with their closer. I think this year they have new ownership, they have good mojo, they have continuity.”

Rodriguez’s pick for the Orioles’ opponent in the Fall Classic comes as no surprise. He expects the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers to once again reach the World Series, comparing the dominance of the team to a young Tiger Woods.

“Reminds me a little bit of when Tiger was in his prime, where it was Tiger against the field,” Rodriguez said. “I feel it’s the Dodgers against the field.”

Yankees with beards?!

The field includes the defending American League champion New York Yankees, who lost Juan Soto in free agency and Gerrit Cole to injury, but added Cody Bellinger and Max Fried.  

“For them it’s just play par golf, just move on to live another day,” Rodriguez said. “Look to get healthy and hot at the right time in the summer, kind of leading into the fall, just play really, really strong fundamental baseball. I think one of the things Brian Cashman did a really good job of is addressing some of their liabilities, which kind of all came together in that fifth inning of Game 5 — which is a bit of a lack of fundamentals, lack of focus on those details. I think they’re really much better off going into this year, and then when the time is right, I’m sure they have the resources to go out and plug and play whatever they need at the deadline.”

And those players will be permitted to have a beard. The Yankees lifted their long-standing facial-hair policy that limited players to having nothing more than a mustache.

“I was surprised,” Rodriguez said, joking it would not have impacted him as a player because he’s unsuccessfully been trying to grow a beard for 30 years.

“It was wild pivot for the organization, a rule that had been on there since 1973 when George Steinbrenner acquired the team,” he said. “Give them credit, they’re fluid, they’re willing to change, they’re not just married to whatever the past was.”

Clean-shaven faces are now part of that past – as is Soto.

Advice for Juan Soto

The 26-year-old signed a 15-year, $765 million contract with the crosstown rival New York Mets. Rodriguez also changed teams as a marquee free agent at the height of his career when he left the Seattle Mariners for the Texas Rangers in 2001 at the age of 25.

“What advice would I give him? I think slow and steady wins the race,” Rodriguez said. “Don’t try to get all [15] years done in one at bat or one month. But I think he’s really well positioned. I think he has perfect training. He’s been around a little bit, he’s already been a world champion, he’s already been to another World Series, he played in New York, he understands the media market, which is one of the biggest and toughest challenges of New York, he’s already done that very, very well. So, take your time, be patient and play the long game.”

What does he think Soto saw in the Mets that convinced him to change New York boroughs?

“I think Alex and Steve Cohen are very compelling owners,” Rodriguez said. “They have a really big vision, they have tremendous resources, they’re avid, avid enormous Mets fans. They’ve been partners with the Mets now for over a decade. Usually when Steve Cohen wants something, he gets it. And I’m sure he made a really strong compelling argument of why Juan Soto’s career was better with the Mets than the Yankees.”

Soto returns to Yankee Stadium for his first game as a member of the Mets on May 16.

“He’s gonna get a Bronx reaction,” Rodriguez said with a smile.

Does baseball need a salary cap?

Rodriguez, an MLB analyst for Fox, won three MVP awards and one World Series during his 22-year playing career. He recorded 3,115 hits and 2,086 RBIs – the fourth most all-time. He also set financial records, signing a 10-year, $252 million contract with the Rangers in 2000 that at the time was the largest deal in MLB history.   

He is now set to become one of the majority owners of the NBA’s Minnesota Timberwolves. Having first been a well-compensated baseball player and now expected to be at the other side of the bargaining table as a team owner, Rodriguez was asked if he feels MLB needs a salary cap like the NBA amid the league’s increasing payroll disparity among its teams.     

“I don’t know what the answer is, but I think you have much smarter people than me that are having to figure that out now,” Rodriguez said. “I do think that you need a system where somehow everybody has an opportunity. I’m not sure what that looks like, but I think they’ll figure it out. And again, we have to make sure that the game stays healthy and it stays fair, and more teams than the Yankees and Mets have an opportunity to win year in and year out.”

Robot umpires? ‘I hate it’

In the years to come, balls and strikes could be determined by robot umpires, a computerized system that MLB recently tested during spring training games.

Stadiums are outfitted with cameras that track each pitch and judge whether it crossed home plate within the strike zone. In early testing, umpires wore ear buds and would hear “ball” or “strike,” then relay that to players and fans with traditional hand signals as part of the Automated Ball-Strike System.

A-Rod, however, does not want to see robot umpires replace the stinky umpires.

“I hate it,” he said. “But I’m a bit of an old school guy. I don’t believe robots should be taking the jobs of human beings. I think umpires are some of the most undervalued assets that we have in sports, and I love to see them be a part of it. I mean, they’re so damn good, and we have to support them and not replace them.”