NBA free agency is not over — LeBron James is still out there and taking his time with a decision. After that domino falls, a couple of others can as well, such as James Harden re-signing with the Cavaliers. Then there are restricted free agents Jalen Duren and Peyton Watson, still trying to squeeze every dollar out of their next deals.
That said, we have seen enough to declare winners and losers — and teams that are a little of both. Let's break it down.
Winner: Philadelphia 76ers
When was the last time 76ers fans could celebrate being on the right side of a head-scratching management decision?
Philadelphia added All-NBA Jaylen Brown in his prime while unloading an anchor of a contract in Paul George, a move that vaults this team into title-contender status. That move came at the cost of two first-round picks, but they would have had to give up one just to get off of George in any other trade, and they pick up a guy who finished sixth in MVP voting last season.
It's not perfect,there will be growing pains as a ball-dominant Brown has to fit in with a ball-dominant Tyrese Maxey. Also, the idea of the 76ers as contenders ultimately rests on Joel Embiid's knees and ability to play every other day for a couple of playoff rounds (that said, having Brown there eases the regular season demands and need for Embiid). Concerns aside, there is no question the 76ers are winners this offseason, and new President of Basketball Operations Mike Gansey deserves his flowers.
Loser: Boston Celtics
If we accept Brad Stevens’ premise that in the modern NBA a contending team cannot be built with two supermax players eating up 70% of the team's cap space — and I don't accept that, not fully — it doesn't answer the real issue with Boston's big:
Why this trade at this time? This return is paltry, although the two first-round picks are a good addition. But this should be a contending team featuring Jayson Tatum in his prime, and they replaced All-NBA Brown with 36-year-old Paul George, who, when healthy, is basically a back-end starter-level player at this point. Mitchell Robinson is a good pickup at the price and helps in the minutes and games he can give you. But are the Celtics, as constructed, contenders in the East? I don't see it.
Winner: Miami Heat
This is a play-in team that just landed Giannis Antetokounmpo and becomes instantly relevant again. That's the definition of a win.
There is a lot of work to be done to build out this roster — the Heat are not title contenders as of now (in fact, I think they are in a tier with Boston and Toronto that may have to battle it out for the 5/6/7 seeds). However, there is a real path to contending now, and nobody wants to face this team in the playoffs under Erik Spoelstra. Miami has to be noticed again.
Winner: LeBron James
At age 41, he is still dominating the free agency conversation — that is a huge win. He is what everyone is talking about, and other moves are on hold until he makes a decision. LeBron seems to be enjoying this and dragging it out. Whatever choice he makes is almost secondary, LeBron has shown how much media and fan gravity he has again this offseason.
Winner and Loser: Los Angeles Lakers
I am a lot higher on the Lakers' offseason than many, in part because they did what they needed to do: Make Luka Doncic happy. Any team with a superstar of his caliber is always on the clock, and the Lakers pivoted away from LeBron — an amicable breakup — and put together a roster that is a better, more natural fit around Doncic and how he wants to play. With that, the Lakers are going to win a lot of regular-season games.
However, are the Lakers a better playoff team now? No. They overpaid for Walker Kessler and have made a massive bet on an unproven player who has been injured a lot over the past couple of seasons. It's a huge risk. The Lakers had to pay more than they wanted to retain Austin Reaves, and LeBron James — the All-Star forward who carried them past Houston in a playoff series at age 41 — is willing to play for the minimum somewhere else to get off this team.
The real issue for the Lakers is that they are locked into this core. Doncic/Reaves/Kessler has to work because if it doesn't, it gets really ugly. There is no optionality here.
Loser: Detroit Pistons
Detroit went into the offseason with a clear top priority: Find a quality secondary playmaker to put next to Cade Cunningham. They have not done that.
Working out an extension with All-NBA center Jalen Duren has gotten messy, and while it may all get cleaned up, unnecessary bad blood has developed. Landing Isaiah Joe from OKC for shooting is a quality pickup that fills a need. Switching out Tobias Harris (who goes to the Spurs) for John Collins is good defensively but a step back on offense (Harris can create shots in ways Collins does not). Salary dumping Isaiah Stewart makes this team worse. Ultimately, it's this simple: Detroit went into the summer with one item at the top of the shopping list, and they have not taken care of that yet. This team feels a little worse.
Losers: Teams with cap space
Look at the teams that went into this offseason with significant cap space. The Lakers used their cap space to reshape their roster and overpay for Walker Kessler. The Bulls signed Norman Powell and traded for Nic Claxton, nice moves but not needle movers. The Nets used their cap space to trade for a floor raiser in Julius Randle.
The reality is, the best players don't move via free agency anymore. The biggest moves this offseason (Brown and Antetokounmpo) were trades, and that has been the trend for a while. Cap space doesn't mean what it used to.
Winner: Centers
Every team in the league is looking at San Antonio and asking, "How are we going to deal with Victor Wembanyama?" In the West, that's without even asking about Nikola Jokic and Chet Holmgren. All of which has put signing big body centers back in vogue: Mitchell Robinson got a raise to head to Boston, the Lakers nearly used all their assets to land Walker Kessler, and a lot of guys who may have been thought of as backup bigs — Quinten Post, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Jusuf Nurkic, Jock Landale, and Day'Ron Sharpe to name a few — got eight-figure new contracts. It's a good time to be a center.
Winner and Loser: Portland Trail Blazers
Portland is a winner because they get to take a shot with Ja Morant for almost no cost. How well he fits in with the team and the city remains to be seen (he was with his new teammates in Las Vegas for Summer League, cheering on Yang Hansen), but at this cost, why not try it? There are reasons to think that his being in a locker room with Damian Lillard and Jrue Holiday (and near the Nike campus) is a big plus.
Portland is also a loser because Morant feels more like a distressed asset play than a basketball move, Portland didn't need to bring in Morant. The thing is, that just feels like how new owner Tom Dundon is treating the Trail Blazers: as a distressed-asset play, not as the caretaker of part of a city's culture and identity.
