As the Mets' 2026 season spiraled early, with New York going from 7-4 to 7-16 before bottoming out at 10-21 as their shockingly bad nine-game homestand against the Twins, Rockies, and Nationals concluded this past weekend, it was easy to lose sight of why New York had fallen so far.
Yes, they were a bad team. And it seemed kind of beside the point to bother to dig beyond that given how deep their struggles were, how rare the wins were, and how bleak it seemed.
But focusing on the why was important when it came to diagnosing the problem and envisioning the possibility of a recovery.
The why, of course, was the offense.
During their 12-game losing streak, the Mets mustered just 22 runs, an average of 1.83 per game.
It was more of the same during their 3-6 homestand against the Twins, Rockies, and Nats, when New York scored 13 runs combined over their six losses -- an average of 2.16 per game.
There were other issues at play during that 10-21 start, including way too many mental and physical errors, along with the serious struggles of Kodai Senga (who pitched himself out of the rotation before landing on the IL) and David Peterson (who has excelled in relief this season, but struggled when handed the ball to start).
Injuries also played (and continue to play) a big part, with Juan Sotoback after missing about three weeks but Francisco Lindor now out -- along with Jorge Polanco and Luis Robert Jr.
But the takeaway here is that the Mets have the kind of pitching that could anchor their rise back to respectability and (yes, it's still possible) contention.
First, let's look at the rotation...
Nolan McLean is an emerging ace with wipeout stuff who has a 2.97 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. His 2.13 FIP leads the National League, and his hits per nine rate (5.9) and strikeout rate (11.7) are elite.
Clay Holmes' 1.69 ERA is the second-best in the NL and his 0.98 WHIP ranks sixth. His 3.66 FIP and relatively low strikeout rate (6.5) suggests there will be some regression to the mean, but Holmes has become a legitimate rotation weapon. And when it comes specifically to the low K rate, it's mitigated by Holmes' ability to get hitters to chase and to pound the ball on the ground -- his ground ball rate this season is in the 94th percentile.
Fredy Peralta has been steady, if not spectacular, posting a 3.52 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with 42 strikeouts in 38.1 innings. He's been rounding into form lately, pitching 5.2 innings or more in each of his last four starts while seeing his fastball velocity tick up.
Christian Scott remains a bit of a mystery in his first season back from Tommy John surgery, but his second start was eye-opening, with the right-hander firing four no-hit innings after allowing two runs in the first frame. Scott has the kind of swing-and-miss stuff to excel.
The fifth starter spot is still being pieced together, but it's fair to believe Jonah Tong -- who took a no-hitter into the sixth inning of his most recent start for Triple-A Syracuse -- will be a factor by June or July.
Then there's the bullpen.
There were some early hiccups, including a brutal four-game stretch where Devin Williams couldn't harness his stuff and back-to-back appearances for Luke Weaver where he allowed six combined runs.
But Williams has four straight scoreless appearances under his belt, and has been dominant during that span -- allowing just one hit in four innings while walking none and striking out five. Meanwhile, Weaver has been terrific since his aforementioned two-game hiccup, allowing two runs in 7.2 innings over his last seven appearances dating back to April 18.
Elsewhere in the bullpen, Huascar Brazoban (1.08 ERA, 0.84 WHIP in 15 appearances) and Brooks Raley (1.42 ERA, 0.86 WHIP in 14 appearances) have been tremendous.
The relief corps will also get a boost soon, with A.J. Minter expected to be activated off the IL in the next few days.
One thing the Mets will arguably have to do in the near future when it comes to their bullpen is adjust the configuration. It's very hard to maintain success when three relievers (Peterson, Sean Manaea, and Tobias Myers) are ordinarily used for multiple innings at a time, which limits how often they can pitch and has a trickle down effect on the other relievers. Peterson has been very good in relief, while Myers has been stellar in his role. Manaea, whose fastball velocity has not returned after his injury-riddled 2025 campaign, has a 6.55 ERA and 1.63 WHIP.
But again, the Mets have the pitching to succeed, and their overall runs allowed (151, seventh-best in the NL) is inflated due in part to the three starts where Senga surrendered 17 runs in just 8.1 innings.
This takes us to the caveat, which is a huge one.
Will the Mets, still without Lindor, Polanco, and Robert, hit enough to be able to take advantage of what their pitching staff can do?
As far as how much they'll have to hit, it's fair to believe that -- given the quality of their pitching staff -- the Mets will win far more often than not if they can simply be about average offensively.
For example, while winning three of their last four games, the Mets have scored four, five, and four runs. Not exactly an offensive onslaught.
But just being average will require a massive improvement from what they've been most of the year, since New York has scored only 122 runs -- the second-fewest in baseball.
That paltry run total is obviously colored by everything that was covered above, including the absence of Soto, the current injuries, and most of the Mets' key offensive players going through prolonged slumps at the same time earlier this season.
In that regard, things seem to be going in the right direction.
Soto's return has helped stabilize things, Bo Bichette has looked more comfortable, Mark Vientos has hit enough to lift his OPS to an above average level, Francisco Alvarez has emerged from the doldrums and hit in four straight games, MJ Melendez has come up from the minors and posted a .906 OPS, and Carson Benge is starting to get his feet under him at the plate in his first taste of the majors.
Over his last 11 games, Benge is slashing .303/.361/.545 with two homers and two doubles.
Potentially huge will be getting Polanco and Robert back, which could happen sooner rather than later. As far as Lindor and his calf injury, more will be known when he undergoes reimaging in about 10 days, with a "relatively quick progression" possible if all goes well.
In any event, while the worst seems to be behind the Mets, they still have a very tall mountain to climb.
Notable when it comes to New York's expected chances of scaling that mountain is that the FanGraphs playoff odds currently give the Mets a better chance to reach the postseason than about half the league, including the 21-14 Cardinals and 20-15 Reds -- teams that just so happen to be holding two of the three Wild Card spots in the NL.
Those odds should be taken with a grain of salt, but the Mets have the ability to rise up, even if they haven't yet earned the benefit of the doubt that they will.
Kurt Helin
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