For every player a fantasy manager deems worthy of reaching for in fantasy drafts, there's another they'll actively look to avoid, especially if their average draft position (ADP) is too high.
With that in mind, Rotoworld basketball analysts Cole Huff, Noah Rubin, Raphielle Johnson and Zak Hanshew each picked two players they are fading at ADP for this season. Check it out below.
On a more positive note, you can see some of our staff favorites for 2025-26 here.
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Cole Huff’s picks: G James Harden (LA Clippers) and C Ivica Zubac (LA Clippers)
This is not meant to be a knock on Harden — I trust that he will continue to lead the Clippers and could record one of his more efficient seasons shooting the basketball in quite some time, due to a presumably lighter load throughout the season. Given Kawhi Leonard's good health to start the season, the additions of John Collins and Bradley Beal as potential scoring boosts to the starting lineup, and an actual reliable point guard in Chris Paul now on the roster to prevent Harden from being overworked, the scoring and overall usage should probably come down a bit for the former league MVP.
This could all change quickly if age is a factor for this veteran team and Harden is forced to shoulder the load again out of necessity. But if health is not a concern, I'd expect The Beard to finish more closely to a top-10 point guard finish than a top-5.
As for Zubac, I'm not as high on him this season from a fantasy standpoint; I'm expecting his production to dip a bit, like Harden. He cracked 30.0 minutes per game for the first time in his career last season and set career-bests in points, rebounds, and assists per game by a comfortable margin. But context is essential — Zubac missed only two games all season and saw increased opportunities (which he took advantage of) due to the roster's clear lack of a second reliable big.
With Brook Lopez backing him up as arguably one of the best reserve centers in the NBA, and John Collins able to offer small-ball center looks, there's a good chance we see Zubac on the court less throughout the 82-game slate.
Noah Rubin’s picks: G Jalen Green (Phoenix Suns) and F DeMar DeRozan (Sacramento Kings)
I'm happy Green is getting the opportunity to start fresh in Phoenix. I think it is the best thing for his career. However, I don't know why anyone would expect a dramatic change in production in his first year away from Houston. According to NBA.com, Green's usage rate last season was 26.7, the highest mark on the Rockets. Sure, Devin Booker (28.5) and Kevin Durant (28.3) both boasted higher usage rates, and Green is set to replace Durant's touches, but do we really expect Green to get the same opportunities as KD? And even if he does see a bump in usage, does that mean he will magically get more efficient or impact the game in new ways?
I'm not saying Green is going to take a step back, but the idea that he's worth a top-75 pick just because he's in Phoenix isn't something I'm on board with. He certainly has a stronger case in points leagues, but I'm not expecting a dramatic jump in production, and he finished 79th in Yahoo! standard scoring last season.
It might just be time for DeMar. He's been one of the more consistently available players in the league for the past decade, but his athleticism isn't where it used to be. That's entirely understandable for a 36-year-old, but it just means he isn't as effective as he used to be, and he's on a team with multiple ball-dominant players. One stat that showcases athleticism is rim attempts, and he only took 9.3 percent of his shots last year in the restricted area after being at 22.2 percent the year before and at least 18 percent each of the three years before that.
DeRozan is typically a player who creates most of his shots on his own. Still, he created his fewest shots per possession since 2015 and took more shots off passes from his teammates per possession than he has in any individual season for the past decade. That's basically nerdspeak for "DeRozan is getting old." I don't see a world where he's better than last season, especially with the lack of changes the Kings made, other than bringing in Dennis Schröder to take even more touches away from DeMar.
Early ADP data shows that some players are potentially being overvalued by fantasy managers.
Raphielle Johnson’s picks: C Domantas Sabonis (Sacramento Kings) and F RJ Barrett (Toronto Raptors)
Average draft position analysis can be tricky this time of year, as there isn't much data to rely on. However, Sabonis's first-round ADP in 12-team leagues is a bit concerning. While he's undoubtedly been a fantasy stud in the past, I think his value will take another hit this season. After last season's trade deadline, Sabonis averaged 16.4 points, 13.1 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 0.8 steals and 0.5 three-pointers per game. While the Kings have addressed the point guard position by adding Dennis Schröder, Sabonis will still have to exist in a lineup that includes two ball-dominant perimeter players in Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan. The Kings' center's rebounding production may not suffer, but the scoring is a concern.
As for my other pick, there are also ADP concerns regarding Barrett. As of Tuesday night, he had an ADP of 82.4 in Yahoo! leagues. Barrett has never been a top-100 fantasy player in totals or per-game value, and he's had just one top-150 season in his NBA career. For him to have an ADP comfortably within the top 100 at this juncture is wild. And even though Barrett looked good in Toronto's preseason opener on Monday, he's in a starting lineup that will include three other players who need to have the ball in their hands in Immanuel Quickley, Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram. Will there be enough touches available for Barrett to threaten top-100 value, much less finish within that threshold? I say no.
Zak Hanshew’s picks: C Alperen Şengün (Houston Rockets) and G Jalen Brunson (New York Knicks)
Şengün finished with 19.1 points, 10.3 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.8 blocks and 0.3 triples while shooting 49.6% from the floor and 69.2% from the charity stripe. Despite productive numbers as a scorer, rebounder and facilitator, the points, assists, steals and shooting percentages were all steps down from his 2023-24 numbers. With Amen Thompson expected to continue his ascension as a playmaker, Kevin Durant ready to come on board as a scorer and rebounder and guys like newcomer Clint Capela and breakout candidate Tari Eason on track to eat up minutes and usage, how can Sengun be expected to take a step forward in 2025-26?
He's Nikola Jokić and Domantas Sabonis lite, but he doesn't rebound as effectively as Sabonis, score as prolifically as Jokic, and pass as well as either. Sengun is being overvalued and overdrafted, and I won't be rostering him anywhere.
Brunson enjoyed another productive season in 2024-25, finishing with averages of 26 points, 2.9 rebounds, 7.3 assists, 0.9 steals and 2.3 triples across 34.5 minutes. The superstar guard has offered elite scoring and strong playmaking in his time with the Knicks, though his big numbers have come at the cost of heavy minutes and high usage. With Tom Thibodeau out in New York and Mike Brown in, expect the Knicks to limit minutes across the board consciously.
Brunson finished 50th in per-game fantasy value a season ago, but there's no way he approaches that production level moving forward. With a new game plan and additional role players - Guerschon Yabusele, Jordan Clarkson, Landry Shamet, Malcolm Brogdon - look for Brunson's playing time and statistical output to decrease.
Raphielle Johnson
