The Philadelphia Flyers all but officially hired Rick Tocchet as their next head coach Wednesday, much to the chagrin of their loyal but increasingly impatient fanbase.
Tocchet, a former Flyers player, is not guaranteed to succeed in this role given the circumstances. He's not guaranteed to fail, either.
But playing both sides of the fence is boring and typically not insightful. All we have to do is look to the past to get a sense of what Tocchet is up against, both on and off the ice, and whether he's level to the task of breaking the mold.
The 61-year-old is the reigning Jack Adams Award winner, having guided his old Vancouver Canucks to a 50-23-9 finish last season in addition to pushing the Western Conference champion Edmonton Oilers to seven games in the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs - without starting goalie Thatcher Demko.
This is all great, but all the things that made Tocchet a success in 2023-24 made him a failure in 2024-25.
Demko struggled to get healthy and stay healthy, and the Canucks' team save percentage dropped from 90.56% in all situations to 88.58%. The Flyers' team save percentage in 2024-25 was 87.2%, for reference.
Another thing to consider is the pure gulf in talent between the Canucks and Flyers, which is the one thing Tocchet will have to manage the most day in and day out.
When Tocchet guided the Canucks to the playoffs last season, Elias Pettersson, J.T. Miller, and Brock Boeser all scored upwards of 34 goals. Five Canucks scored 20 or more goals, four Canucks scored 70 or more points, and six Canucks scored 47 or more points.
Pettersson, Miller, and Quinn Hughes each went for 89 points or more, as well. Miller was the only one to go for more than 100 (102).
The last time the Flyers had even one player score 80 points was when former captain Claude Giroux racked up 85 in 82 games in the 2018-19 season.
Giroux also scored 102 points in 82 games in the 2017-18 season, which was the last time the Flyers had multiple 30-goal-scorers in a season (Giroux and Sean Couturier). Jake Voracek added 85 points that year, and the up-and-coming Shayne Gostisbehere had posted 65 of his own.
Do the Flyers have any of these things to help Tocchet succeed in the present day? The long answer, above, is no. And the short answer is no.
By extension, Tocchet's job with the Flyers, after reportedly signing for five years and a total of $25 million, is to develop and coach the young players the organization does have up to that level.
There will be significant emphasis placed on reversing the regression that took place in Philadelphia leading up to John Tortorella's unceremonious departure from the club on March 27.
Tocchet himself was a victim of regression just this year, and the past does not lend itself kindly to his future success, either.
In 2009-10, his first full season as an NHL head coach, Tocchet guided a 19-year-old Steven Stamkos to a 51-goal, 95-point campaign, and Martin St. Louis scored 94 points of his own.
Despite this, Tocchet's Tampa Bay Lightning finished 23rd in the NHL in goals, and he was replaced by Guy Boucher the following season.
In Boucher's first season post-Tocchet, the Lightning finished second in the Southeast Division, made the playoffs, finished seventh in the NHL in goals, and lost to the eventual Stanley Cup champion Boston Bruins in seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Boucher did this with largely the same group of players he inherited from Tocchet, which included Stamkos, St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier, Victor Hedman, Steve Downie, Teddy Purcell, Ryan Malone, and Mike Smith.
In his next coaching gig, Tocchet was at the helm of the Arizona Coyotes, tasked with developing players like Clayton Keller, Conor Garland, Max Domi, Dylan Strome, Jakob Chychrun, Lawson Crouse, Barrett Hayton, and Nick Schmaltz between the 2017-18 and 2020-21 seasons.
Domi played one season under Tocchet, 2017-18, scoring just nine goals and 45 points before being traded to Montreal for Alex Galchenyuk and scoring 28 goals and 72 points the following year.
Keller had just one season with 50 or more points under Tocchet in Arizona. Schmaltz had a combined 21 goals and 77 points in parts of two seasons under Tocchet before breaking out with a career-high 23 goals and 59 points in 2021-22 after Tocchet was dismissed.
And so the pattern goes.
But, one player who did have one of his best seasons under Tocchet was Chychrun, who scored a career-high 18 goals and 41 points in 56 games in 2020-21. Those personal bests stood until this season, when he scored 20 goals and 47 points with the Washington Capitals, albeit in 74 games.
This might bode well for young Flyers defensemen like Cam York, Jamie Drysdale, and Emil Andrae, but there is understandably some grave concern regarding the future of the organization's forwards under Tocchet.
In four seasons in Arizona, Tocchet's Coyotes never finished higher than 22nd in the NHL in goals scored.
When Tocchet took over for Bruce Boudreau in Vancouver, Pettersson exploded for 102 points by the end of the year, and Miller and Hughes were close behind with 82 and 76 points, respectively.
Former Flyers forward Andrei Kuzmenko had potted 39 goals and 74 points, and former Canucks captain Bo Horvat had scored 31 goals and was averaging more than a point per game before getting traded.
Even then, the Canucks failed to make the playoffs after a slow start under Boudreau and finished outside the top-10 in goals scored.
The following year, Kuzmenko was run out of town after scoring just eight goals and 21 points in 43 games, quickly finding himself in Tocchet's doghouse while struggling with some defensive assignments. But that's not his game, and Tocchet wanted him to be a different player.
This is not the only such concerning example of this with a high-octane offensive player, either.
As recently as March of this year, Tocchet admitted to trying to "re-program" Elias Pettersson, even after the star Swede scored 102 points under his watch just over a year prior.
“You've got to play north hockey. Regroup hockey, taking the puck back, won’t win in the NHL," Tocchet had said. “I think sometimes Petey likes to regroup, slow the game down. I’m not sure how many years ago doing that might’ve worked, but now you have to play a more north style, and we’re just trying to re-program his brain when it comes to that, and he’s buying into that. That’s why I think he’s getting better at that, but there is another level for us and our team.”
Pettersson, of course, scored only 45 points last season, marking easily the worst full season of his NHL career from an offensive standpoint.
And, speaking of Pettersson, another mark against Tocchet is the widely-reported rift between the former and J.T. Miller, which culminated in Miller's trade to the New York Rangers on Jan. 31.
It was a problem when Boudreau arrived in Vancouver, and it was a problem when Tocchet arrived in Vancouver.
But it only boiled over under Tocchet's watch, and the Canucks failed to address it before first setting half their season on fire.
Tocchet never chose sides and always publicly endorsed both players, but at the end of the day, he's the leader of the team.
In lieu of an official announcement, Tocchet is now the leader of the Flyers, and he's got a lot of work to do to erase the negative sentiment around him.
There are positives from each of his stints as an NHL head coach, but Tocchet has struggled to put together the elusive end product that lacks significant blemishes.
With a long-term deal apparently agreed, perhaps the Flyers are willing to give Tocchet the time he needs to prove himself.
