Could The Canadiens Head To The Playoffs With Two Rookie Goalies?

While the Montreal Canadiens have yet to book their place in the Stanley Cup playoffs, they look well on their way to qualifying, and barring a disaster of epic proportion, they should get their ticket to the spring dance, despite going through most of the season with questionable goaltending. This shows just how much this team has progressed offensively. The Canadiens have scored 236 goals so far this season, the fourth-highest offensive output in the league behind the offensive juggernauts the Edmonton Oilers, Colorado Avalanche, and the surprising Buffalo Sabres. Montreal is third in goals-per-game average with 3.53, hot on the trail of the Avalanche (3.78) and the Oilers (3.55).

That productive offence is the reason why the Canadiens are where they are in the standings. Still, as the postseason approaches, games get tighter, goals scored go down, and offensive picnics are a thing of the past, which means that goaltending becomes that much more important. This is the reason why the Habs called up Jacob Fowler. Samuel Montembeault is dealing with serious issues in his game right now, and his confidence is shaken, just like the team’s confidence in him. As for Jakub Dobes, he generally finds a way to win, but often benefits from a lot of support from his teammates filling up the net at the other end. Still, right now, it appears that Fowler and Dobes are ahead of Montembeault in the hierarchy.

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In 11 games this season, Fowler has a 5-4-2 record with a 2.56 goals-against average and a .906 save percentage. Meanwhile, Dobes is 21-6-4 with a 2.97 GAA and a .892 SV, and Montembeault is 10-8-4 with a 3.43 GAA and a .872 SV. As things stand, both the eye test and the stats test point to the Habs entering the playoffs with a tandem of rookie goaltenders.

Over the years, we’ve often heard that you need experience to win in the postseason. Still, despite being a 7-season veteran and 29-year-old, Montembeault has played only parts of three playoff games, leaving the third after being injured. That totals 152 minutes of playoff action; Dobes has played the same number of postseason games, for a total of 144 minutes. Of course, Fowler has yet to see any playoff action in the NHL, but he did play in the AHL postseason last year. He appeared in eight games or 387 minutes for the Laval Rocket, posting a 3-3-0 record, a 2.48 GAA, a .902 SV and a shutout.

Historically, the Canadiens have not fared too badly with a rookie goaltender in net. You don’t have to look any further than the 1986 Stanley Cup conquest to see that a rookie can do it. That year, Patrick Roy won both the Stanley Cup and the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoffs' MVP. League-wide, Cam Ward also led the Carolina Hurricanes to a Stanley Cup championship as a rookie in 2005-2006, and Matt Murray did it with the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2015-16.

Hockey is increasingly becoming a young players’ game; why should it be any different with goaltenders? Talent and confidence will take you much further in the postseason than experience, especially if it’s not positive experience. Montembeault has struggled all year, and he looks lost in the crease right now. Unless he miraculously rebounds, the Canadiens will and should go full speed ahead with their two rookies. If the puck were to drop in the postseason today, they’d give Fowler the net, and Dobes would act as his backup. It’s a shame for Montembeault, but hockey is a results game, and you’re only as good as your last performance.


Follow Karine on X @KarineHains Bluesky @karinehains.bsky.social and Threads @karinehains.  

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Open Thread: Spurs enlightenment for their ten-year-old selves

DETROIT, MI - FEBRUARY 23: Victor Wembanyama #1, Dylan Harper #2, Stephon Castle #5, and Devin Vassell #24 of the San Antonio Spurs huddle during the game against the Detroit Pistons on February 23, 2026 at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Brian Sevald/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images

This popped up in my Instagram feed:

Devin Vassell, Victor Wembanyama, David Jones Garcia, Harrison Ingram, Dyaln Harper and Jordan McLaughlin were asked what they would tell their 10-year-old selves.

Vassell shared “don’t ever let anyone tell you that you can’t do something.”

Wembanyama stated that the advice he got was to determine if something he was working on was for now or for his future.

David Jones Garcia recalled his father told him to “fight for your dreams.” Spurs fans may recall that before his father passed, David promised he’s play in an NBA game. He accomplished that this season with the Spurs. He was also invited to participate in All-Star Weekend through his successes in thr G-League. Unfortunately, he has been sidelined for the seaosn after having surgery on his right ankle.

Harrison Ingram’s share was poingnant. He brought the visual of a globe and said that the world looked the same whether you win or lose.

Dylan Harper said he’s remind his young self to be yourself, which sounds like a Harper family mantra.

Jordan McLaughlin said he’d tell his younger self to “enjoy the process.”


Welcome to the Thread. Join in the conversation, start your own discussion, and share your thoughts. This is the Spurs community, your Spurs community. Thanks for being here.

Our community guidelines apply which should remind everyone to be cool, avoid personal attacks, not to troll and to watch the language.

DitD & Open Post – 3/13/26: A Trying Season Edition

Here are your links for today:

Devils Links

Former Devils Kevin Bahl and Yegor Sharangovich scored for the Flames Thursday as Calgary took a 5-4 win. [Devils NHL]

“It’s been a trying season for the New Jersey Devils. Much of it is general manager Tom Fitzgerald’s fault for not assembling a strong enough roster. Sheldon Keefe deserves some blame as well, though it does appear he’s changed how the team plays since the Olympic break. That’s left the Devils in a position where their final 18 games don’t have significant meaning since they’re highly unlikely to make the playoffs. Still, there are a few things I’d like to see to build momentum heading into the offseason and the 2026-27 campaign.” [Devils on the Rush ($)]

Hockey Links

An unreal goal:

Radko Gudas gets ejected:

Nick Schmaltz gets an eight-year deal:

“Yes, it required a double-take. After Nick Schmaltz removed himself from the already thin July 1 free-agent market with his contract extension with the Utah Mammoth on Wednesday, I glanced at the remaining pending UFA class. As of Thursday morning, your leading point-getter among pending UFA players was … drumroll … Darren Raddysh!” [The Athletic ($)]

“In a surprising reversal, the NHL has decided the Ottawa Senators will no longer forfeit a first-round draft pick for their role in the canceled 2022 trade between Vegas and Anaheim involving winger Evgenii Dadonov. Rather than giving up their first-round pick in June’s NHL draft, the Senators will select last (32nd overall) in the round and pay a $1 million fine in Canadian dollars, the league announced Thursday. That money will go to the NHL Foundation Canada, a league-sponsored charitable organization.” [ESPN]

A look around the league at the draft capital situation following the trade deadline: [Sportsnet]

“O’Reilly, Benn, Reaves and Bogosian bring the NHL’s visor-less population to 0.46 percent of current skaters. That number stood at 32 percent of players during the 2011-12 season and 27 percent in February 2013, according to numbers provided by the NHL Players’ Association at the time.” [The Athletic ($)]

Feel free to discuss these and any other hockey-related stories in the comments below.

Orioles news: Pondering the Opening Day roster

Aug 29, 2025; San Francisco, California, USA; Baltimore Orioles pitcher Grant Wolfram (86) delivers a pitch against the San Francisco Giants during the seventh inning at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images | D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

Good morning, Camden Chatters.

The Orioles had their final off day of spring training yesterday, and now it’s an all-out sprint to the end of camp. The O’s will play 13 games in the next 11 days, which includes a pair of split-squad games next Thursday, the prospects-only Spring Breakout game next Friday, and games against the Nationals in both Baltimore and D.C. to close out their exhibition schedule March 22 and 23.

With less than two weeks until Opening Day, everyone seems to be wondering how the O’s will pare their current camp roster of 53 down to their season-opening 26-man. MASN’s Roch Kubatko, MLB’s Jake Rill, and Baltimore Baseball’s Rich Dubroff all offered their thoughts about how the roster might line up when the season starts. All three predict the Orioles to solve their six-starting-pitcher dilemma by having Zach Eflin start the season on the IL and continue to ramp up after last year’s back surgery. Things sure seem to be leaning that way, considering that Eflin has thrown just two innings this spring — impressive as they were — and isn’t currently scheduled to pitch for the rest of this week.

The three writers are mostly in sync about how the bulk of the roster will shake out. The biggest questions right now are the final couple of spots in the bullpen and on the bench. Kubatko and Rill advocate for hard-throwing, out-of-options righty Jackson Kowar, while Dubroff pegs the last bullpen spot for Yaramil Hiraldo. All seem to agree that Grant Wolfram has pitched his way onto the team with his stellar spring (five scoreless innings, nine strikeouts) while Albert Suárez (nine runs in 6.2 innings) has probably pitched his way off of it.

On the bench, the utility infield decision seems to come down to either Jeremiah Jackson (Dubroff’s pick) or Luis Vázquez (Rill’s selection). Personally I’d go with Vázquez, because if you have Coby Mayo as your starting third baseman, you need to have a competent defender available to replace him in the late innings, and Jackson isn’t that guy.

I think the beat writers have got the roster competition sized up pretty well based on who’s currently in camp. But I feel like the Orioles might have another significant move up their sleeve before the season starts. To me there’s still a bit too much redundancy among the position-player group — particularly Ryan Mountcastle, who isn’t going to knock Pete Alonso out of the lineup and doesn’t provide any defensive versatility beyond first base.

The bullpen also seems a little light, especially now that Andrew Kittredge is injured. I don’t like the idea of Keegan Akin and Yennier Cano getting high-leverage innings, not to mention the relatively unproven guys like Wolfram, Dietrich Enns, and Rico Garcia. Maybe there’s a way for the O’s to address two problems at once by trading Mountcastle for a relief pitcher if they can find an interested partner. Just spitballing here.

What say you, Camden Chatters? As of now, what would your Opening Day roster look like?

Links

As Mayo reacclimates to 3rd, his bat shows why he’s needed in O’s lineup – MLB.com

I’m going to be holding my breath every time an opposing batter hits a grounder to third base. But I’ll learn to live with it if Mayo keeps hitting like he’s been doing this spring.

Does Chris Davis belong in Orioles’ Hall of Fame? | MAILBAG – BaltimoreBaseball.com

Yes, of course he does. Davis’s O’s career was worlds better than some other guys in the Orioles Hall of Fame. But I understand why his epic collapse is still a a fresh wound for Orioles fans. I would have maybe waited a couple more years before putting him in.

Is new O’s outfielder Taylor Ward flying under the radar right now? – Steve Melewski

I’ve barely thought about Taylor Ward in months, so I suppose the answer is yes.

Orioles birthdays and history

Is today your birthday? Happy birthday! Only one player in O’s history has a March 13 birthday: happy 62nd to Will “The Thrill” Clark. He was best known for his prolific career with the Giants and Rangers, but he spent the last two years of his career in Baltimore from 1999-2000. Clark had a .964 OPS in his final season, including 1.081 in 51 games with the Cardinals after a deadline trade, so he certainly went out on top.

On this date in 1996, the Orioles traded outfielder Sherman Obando to the Expos for outfielder Tony Tarasco. Amidst an otherwise unremarkable two seasons with the Orioles, Tarasco infamously was the right fielder from whom Jeffrey Maier stole Derek Jeter’s fly ball at the fence in Game 1 of the 1996 ALCS. Three years later, Tarasco played 14 games for the Yankees, but as far as I know he had no further incidents with fans at the wall.

Bernie’s Dugout Open Thread: 3/13-3/19

Sep 10, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA; General view of the helmet used by the Milwaukee Brewers before the start of the first inning against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Stan Szeto-Imagn Images | Stan Szeto-Imagn Images

Greetings, Brew Crew Ball community. Welcome to March, as Opening Day is now less than two weeks away!

Feel free to use this thread to chat about (almost) anything you want: video games, food, movies, non-baseball sports, the Brewers, you name it. As long as it’s appropriate and is allowed by our moderators, it’s fair game here.

You know the drill.

This is now an open thread:

Chicago Cubs history unpacked, March 13

Free of charge for the discerning reader.Not much happened, but what did happen was important. Happy birthday to former Cubs Mark Leiter Jr. and Keegan Thompson*.

Today in baseball history:

  • 1917 – After hearing that Gabby Street had caught a ball dropped off the Washington Monument in 1908Brooklyn manager Wilbert Robinson brags that he could catch a ball dropped from an airplane at spring training, even though he is in his mid-50s and well above his playing weight. Robinson circles unsteadily under the descending spheroid. Instead, a grapefruit was secretly substituted and it explodes on impact with his glove. Once he feels the ooze, Robinson thinks it is blood, and screams that he is dying, until he tastes the juice. He later concedes that he probably would have been killed if a real baseball had been dropped from the plane. Aviatrix Ruth Law dropped the grapefruit as outfielder Casey Stengel assumed culpability for the switch.
  • 1943 – The major leagues approve a new official ball manufactured by the Spalding Company for the upcoming season. Instead of the usual combination of cork and rubber, the inside of the ball is made up of recycled cork and balata, materials not needed in the war effort. Officials insist the ball will have the resiliency of the 1939 ball, but the players will express dismay that they cannot drive the new ball and point out the dearth of runs and homers in 1942 even with the old ball.
  • 1954 – ABC’s attempt to turn a spring training game between the Phillies and White Sox in Clearwater, FL into a national telecast ends in a fiasco. As part of its contract to air the Game of the Week, the network has until now been prohibited from broadcasting any game within 75 miles of an existing major league franchise, but it tries to contravene this by omitting the clause from that broadcast’s contract. The teams only realize this just before the game is aired, and then force ABC to pull the game from the “illegitimate” stations. As the network is unable to do so in time, it simply stops the broadcast after three innings without providing an explanation to viewers.
  • 1960 – The Chicago White Sox unveil an important uniform innovation. The Sox’s road uniforms feature players’ names on the backs of the jerseys, marking the first time that players’ names will appear on major league uniforms. The innovation will make it easier for fans watching games on television to identify the players on the field. The idea is yet another creation of colorful White Sox owner and innovator Bill Veeck.
  • 1969 – In addition to this year’s lower mound and tightened strike zoneMajor League Baseball tries an experimental ball with 10 percent more resiliency for a spring training game between the Mets and Tigers in Lakeland, Florida. It has an all-rubber center instead of a cork and rubber core, and the seams are higher than the regular ball. Mets pitcher Don Cardwell surrenders three home runs in the 4th inning to Dick McAuliffeNorm Cash, and Gates Brown in the Tigers’ 7-4 victory. Tomorrow, in Phoenix, Arizona, the same ball is used in the Giants’ 13-1 win over the Angels, with Bobby Bonds hitting the only two homers off George Brunet. The players agree the ball is definitely livelier and sounds louder coming off the bat.
  • 1986 – The father-and-son team of Hal and Brian McRae appears together in an exhibition game for the Kansas City Royals. Brian, who will be sent back to the minor leagues before the start of the season, will not make his major league debut until 1990. In 1991, Brian will play for his father when Hal takes over as Royals manager.
  • 2006 – In Round Two of the inaugural World Baseball Classic, at Angel Stadium, slugger Hee-Seop Choi hits a three-run home run as South Korea humbles the United States, 7-3, to maintain its unbeaten run and leave the US’s title hopes in jeopardy. Ken Griffey, Jr. hits a solo homer and an RBI single.
  • At Hiram Bithorn StadiumOdalis Perez pitches 4.2 shutout innings and David Ortiz powers the Dominican Republic to a key victory over Cuba, 7-3. A 5th-inning mammoth blast by “Big Papi” – hit clear out of the stadium – is symbolic of Cuba’s defeat. In the second game, Victor Martinez belts a grand slamEndy Chavez hits a two-run homer for the second consecutive day, and Carlos Zambrano combines with six pitchers on a seven-hit shutout, as Venezuela defeats Puerto Rico, 6-0. Pool Two is all knotted up with 1-1 records among all four teams.

Cubs Birthdays:Mal EasonGeorge GawEddie ButlerMark Leiter Jr.Keegan Thompson*. Also notable: Home Run Baker HOF.

Today in history:

  • 607 – 12th recorded perihelion passage of Halley’s Comet.
  • 1639 – Cambridge College, Massachusetts, renamed Harvard for clergyman John Harvard.
  • 1781 William Herschel sees what he thinks is a “comet” but is actually the discovery of the planet Uranus.
  • 1930 – Clyde Tombaugh announces discovery of Pluto at Lowell Observatory.
  • 1960 – NFL’s Chicago Cardinals move to St Louis.
  • 1980 – John Wayne Gacy receives the death sentence in Illinois for the murder of 12 people.

Phillies News: Chase Utley, Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler

LONDON, ENGLAND - JUNE 09: Chase Utley waves to the crowd prior to the 2024 London Series game between the New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies at London Stadium on Sunday, June 9, 2024 in London, England. (Photo by Mary DeCicco/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

This time next week… you will not be watching the Phillies play regular season baseball. This time the week after next… you will also not be watching the Phillies play regular season baseball. But one day before this time next week… then you’ll be watching Phillies regular season baseball.

Unless opening day gets rained out again, in which case you will be watching the Phillies play regular season baseball this time the week after next.

Anyway, onto the links.


Phillies news

Mark your calendars: on August 7th, Chase Utley joins the Phillies Wall of Fame.

Aaron Nola changed his offseason training approach, and the early results look good. ($)

Zack Wheeler will be taking the next step in his recovery with a live batting practice this Saturday.

MLB news

MLB.com’s Mike Petriello evaluates every MLB ballpark by how hard it is to play outfield there. Phillies outfielders have it tough.

Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs takes a look at the scenarios that could spell doom for top teams, including the Phillies. ($)

Start checking those old binders and boxes: a one of a kind Aaron Judge card just sold for $5.2 million. (I checked my old collection, but all I found was a 1st edition shadowless Charizard. Darn.)

Fans storm field as South Sydney veteran Alex Johnston breaks NRL try-scoring record

  • Wild celebrations during game despite threat of fines

  • Winger scores 213th try of his career against Roosters

Thousands of fans have stormed onto the field at Allianz Stadium to celebrate South Sydney veteran Alex Johnston breaking the NRL’s try-scoring record.

The winger entered the history books when a break down the left edge put him over for his 213th career try, and his second in Friday’s clash with bitter rivals Sydney Roosters.

Continue reading...

Russell takes pole for China GP sprint race in Mercedes front-row lockout

  • Verstappen describes Red Bull as ‘undriveable’ on radio

  • Bahrain and Saudi GP decision due after China race

George Russell laid down a further marker as the man to beat in the new Formula One season with a dominant run in qualifying to claim pole for the sprint race at the Chinese Grand Prix. He sealed another front row lockout alongside Mercedes teammate Kimi Antonelli with Russell finishing more than half a second clear of their nearest rival.

The first sprint weekend under the new regulations is a journey into the unknown for teams and drivers and they had only the single hour of practice to understand how best to optimise their cars for energy deployment before qualifying.

Continue reading...

Did Tari Eason lose his bet on himself?

NEW YORK, NY - FEBRUARY 21: Tari Eason #17 of the Houston Rockets handles the ball during the game against the New York Knicks on February 21, 2026 at Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images

The 2025-26 NBA season was supposed to be a big year for Tari Eason. At least, he was banking on it from a contractual standpoint.

Eason was essentially the only player Houston drafted and developed that didn’t land a contract extension. Thus far, at least.

Jalen Green secured a long-term deal before getting traded for Kevin Durant, and both Alperen Sengun and Jabari Smith Jr. secured rookie-scale extensions alike. Amen Thompson will certainly be getting one.

Houston’s brass offered Eason a $100 million dear, with an injury guarantee. In other words, a non-fully guaranteed deal, which Eason understandably rebuffed. 

At the start of the season, it seemed like a wise gamble. The fourth-year forward was shooting 50.9 percent from long-range through the first 11 games of the season, while also averaging 11.5 points off the bench.

Then he got injured (for the first time), causing him to miss 14 games. Eason returned with a bang, averaging 12.5 points, 6.8 rebounds and 41.9 percent from deep over the next 10 games after his return.

Eason got re-injured in Houston’s back-to-back stretch against the Portland Trail Blazers and missed five games before returning, playing 10 games before the All-Star break. During those games, he averaged 12.7 points, 6.4 rebounds and 44.4 percent from deep.

In the 12 games since the All-Star break, however, he hasn’t been nearly as effective. During the Rockets’ current stretch, he’s averaging 7.3 points, 6.6 rebounds and 15.6 percent from three.

Ouch.

Eason has now gone four consecutive games without making a single three-pointer. He’s gone 1-of-19 from long-range in Houston’s last six contests. 

And defensively, he’s definitely cratered. He’s generally a high impact defender, but lately, it’s become rather commonplace for him to get beat on that end. And that doesn’t even account for the amount of utterly foolish fouls we’ve seen him commit of late.

So what’s happened to Tari Eason? There’s speculation that he’s still playing injured.

There would seem to be merit to that theory, as he definitely came back rather quickly from his ankle injury suffered earlier in the season.

And if that is, in fact, the case, Ime Udoka would be wise to let him get fully healed before the playoffs start. Houston is going to need the version of Eason from earlier in the season.

Let Josh Okogie get more run while Eason rests up and gets fully healed. (Remember when we thought Okogie was the perfect role player?)

Whatever the case, the Rockets will certainly have to get better play from Eason. Expeditiously. He needs it too.

This season was essentially supposed to be a job interview for the entire league. It seems as though he misjudged his value a bit last summer. 

Who is your dark horse to contend this year?

HOUSTON, TEXAS - MARCH 06: Bobby Witt Jr. #7 and Aaron Judge #99 of the United States talk between innings during a World Baseball Classic Pool B game between the United States and Brazil at Daikin Park on March 06, 2026 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Houston Astros/Getty Images) | Getty Images

It’s about that time in spring where the real games start to get close, we’ve seen everyone take the field for a few weeks, and some surprise names have had hot starts while others are working off the rust. The Yankees are making their roster decisions on a near-daily basis, whittling down their invitee list starting with the obvious prospects that were always here just to get a look-see and some time with their hopefully-future teammates and coaches. Everyone else around the league is doing the same, and as those rosters begin to take shape we can start to consider where our relative preseason rankings fall.

The Yankees are expected to be contenders, both within the locker room and by the media at large. It’s expected, but it shouldn’t be taken for granted that their aim is playing in October because as we’ve seen in recent years… there’s plenty of teams that aren’t. Still, sometimes the team that’s finally looking to make some strides towards contention manages to skip a step or two and finds themselves playing deeper in the fall then they’ve done in a long time, or a team that’s been in the dance a bunch of times just to get kicked right out finally puts it all together to go on a magical run. You can’t predict baseball, as a famous radio broadcaster once said, and every year there’s one or two teams that really turn heads just based on how far they got in the end. Who could it be this year?

The Mariners and Blue Jays both fit the bill last year, meeting in the ALCS after years of playoff frustration with the latter making their first World Series since the early 90s. This year teams will be ready for them, but will they be ready for a team like the Rangers, who had a stellar rotation bogged down by one of the weakest lineups in baseball? Perhaps it all turns around for them, and they find themselves back in it like their 2023 run. Or maybe the AL Central finally gets some respect, with the Guardians once again getting little fanfare despite winning the division three out of the last four years. The Tigers have the flashiest piece with their ace Tarik Skubal and they added Framber Valdez to form a monster 1-2 combo, but don’t count Kansas City out with Bobby Witt Jr. leading the charge. Their rotation is formidable as well, and their supplementary hitters could be enough to get them back into a Wild Card Series.

Over in the National League, the Mets and Phillies have leapfrogged Atlanta after the Braves spent more than a half-decade ruling it. Atlanta missed the postseason altogether, and they face an uphill battle to get back into it, but perhaps Ronald Acuna Jr. and company can surprise some folks and get back on top this year. The NL Central could be the most ripe field for dark horses, as Milwaukee stunned with an MLB-best 97 wins last year but faces competition to hold onto their new crown. The Cubs remain a threat, and while the Cardinals have faded into the foreground of a division they once dominated the Reds could take a leap and prove that ownership should have invested in them more with another ticket to October. The Pirates would be a truly absurd team to rise out of the ashes due to their overall ineptitude, but they do have Paul Skenes — and wouldn’t it be fun to see him in meaningful games come September? About the only division that doesn’t seem interesting on this front is the NL West, as the Dodgers have remained kings for over a decade barring one strange 2021 run from the Giants and the Padres are known contenders who’ve had to settle for the Wild Card.

If you forced me to pick one team from each side to watch out for, I’d go with Kansas City and Atlanta. I don’t expect the Royals to go very deep, but I think they could give their contemporaries in the Central a run for their money and perhaps upset one of them in the standings. As for Atlanta, despite all their years ruling the East it was the year that they looked their least appealing in that span that they won it all. The Mets and Phillies are flashier, but there’s plenty of room for one of them to combust this season, and I’ll believe Atlanta’s down for the count when I see it. Who would your picks be, and how far do you think they’ll go?


Today on the site, Josh leads off with some thoughts on the ABS Challenge influence on this season and how teams will be poised to utilize it. Matt takes us back to the Deadball Era to wish Home Run Baker a happy birthday, Jeff walks us through how the Yankees’ archrivals will look heading into 2026 with a Red Sox preview, and after the exhibition I’ll be around to answer your latest mailbag questions.

Today’s Matchup

New York Yankees vs. Atlanta Braves

Time: 1:05 p.m. EST

Video: Gotham Sports App, Gray TV, MLB Network (out-of-network, only)

Venue: CoolToday Park, North Port, FL

These 10 teams have most at stake in March Madness bracketology

The deliberations among the Men's NCAA Tournament selection committee remain mostly private each year, with only a few interviews done by its chair each year on Selection Sunday serving as the only official rationale for who's in, who's out and where every team is seeded for March Madness.

The 2026 NCAA Tournament is shaping up to be a fascinating bracket, as season-long favorites appear headed for a No. 1 seed and a particularly soft bubble filled with iffy resumes comes into focus ahead of Selection Sunday. Like last season, the selection committee will have seven metrics based on computer models and formulas listed on its team sheets and how each is weighed can be a point of contention that has lasting impact given the importance NCAA tournament performance has on the overall perception of a program.

Each ranking or rating is separated into two distinct categories — predictive metrics and results-based metrics. The NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET)KenPomESPN's BPI and the Torvik rankings are considered predictive rankings that measure how good a team is based on its offensive and defensive efficiency, adjusted for opponent strength and location. The KPIESPN's Strength of Record (SOR) and Wins Above Bubble (WAB) are results-based rankings that judge how hard it was for a team to attain its résumé.

For many teams, the two types of ratings largely converge by the end of the regular season. For others, however, there can be a wide swath of outcomes based on how a game was played and whether it was won or lost. These are the schools from major and mid-major conferences that often inspire the most robust conversation and debate among committee members, either over their selection into the NCAA tournament field as an at-large bid and/or their potential seeding.

Here are 10 teams with the most at stake heading into Selection Sunday based on their polarizing rankings among the metrics used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee:

March Madness 2026: NCAA tournament metrics' most polarizing teams

Records reflect games played on March 12.NET and WAB rankings reflect games played on March 11.

Miami (Ohio) (31-1)

  • NET: 54
  • KenPom: 93
  • BPI: 90
  • Torvik: 87
  • KPI: 47
  • SOR: 21
  • WAB: 33

The RedHawks’ undefeated run through the regular season is one of the most compelling stories heading into this year’s March Madness, in part because of the uncertainty about what the NCAA Tournament selection committee might do if Miami (Ohio) didn’t win the Mid-American Conference tournament and the league’s automatic bid. Well, that discussion is now reality after Miami’s stunning loss to UMass in the MAC tournament quarterfinals on Thursday.

While the RedHawks’ predictive metrics are that of a team from a one-bid league, their results-based numbers suggest they’re deserving of an at-large bid into the bracket despite not playing a quadrant one game this season. The selection committee’s decision here is likely to shape the larger narrative surrounding the mid-major selection process on Selection Sunday and mid-major scheduling moving forward. 

Auburn (17-16)

  • NET: 38
  • KenPom: 38
  • BPI: 26
  • Torvik: 42
  • KPI: 45
  • SOR: 43
  • WAB: 44

Perhaps no team could potentially benefit from this year’s soft bubble like the Tigers, who took another step toward securing an at-large bid by beating Mississippi State to open the SEC Tournament. Auburn’s late-season swoon put it in jeopardy of missing the NCAA Tournament and then former coach Bruce Pearl brought a national spotlight when he recently argued the Tigers were more deserving of a March Madness at-large bid than Miami (Ohio). Steven Pearl’s hiring as coach will get even more uncomfortable should Auburn complete this collapse and not hear its name called on Selection Sunday.

North Carolina (24-7)

  • NET: 24
  • KenPom: 31
  • BPI: 26
  • Torvik: 30
  • KPI: 13
  • SOR: 19
  • WAB: 19

The Tar Heels are going dancing for the second year in a row under coach Hubert Davis, but their seeding on Selection Sunday bears watching. The results-based metrics suggest North Carolina could potentially warrant a top-four seed, especially if it were to reel off a couple more quality wins at the ACC tournament. But predictive metrics like KenPom and ESPN’s BPI currently have UNC hovering around the top 30, which would be more in line with earning a No. 7 or No. 8 seed. How the NCAA tournament selection committee views that gap could affect the Tar Heels’ odds of advancing and Davis felt pressure after last season’s first-round exit from the NCAA Tournament.

Louisville (23-9)

  • NET: 14
  • KenPom: 17
  • BPI: 11
  • Torvik: 14
  • KPI: 25
  • SOR: 25
  • WAB: 22

The Cardinals could be a quandary to seed, with a wider range of metrics than most top 25 teams. Louisville doesn’t have a bad loss on its resumé but it also had just four wins over teams currently projected to make the NCAA Tournament field during the regular season. Its best win is over Kentucky (NET: 27) at home more than four months ago. However, three of the four predictive metrics used by the selection committee – including the NET – have Louisville projected as a top-15 team. This seed line will be hard to project on Selection Sunday.

Iowa (21-12)

  • NET: 25
  • KenPom: 25
  • BPI: 32
  • Torvik: 25
  • KPI: 49
  • SOR: 38
  • WAB: 39

The Hawkeyes are lucky a lot of bubble teams lost this week or else their quick exit from the Big Ten tournament against Ohio State on Thursday might make the next couple days more nerve-wracking. Iowa will enter the 2026 NCAA Tournament having lost four of its past five games and seven of its previous 10 games, including road setbacks to conference doormats Maryland and Penn State. Its seeding profile was already going to be a challenge for the selection committee and the Hawkeyes’ recent issues could leave them with a lower seed than expected despite predictive metrics mostly inside the top 25. 

UCF (21-10)

  • NET: 51
  • KenPom: 53
  • BPI: 55
  • Torvik: 57
  • KPI: 28
  • SOR: 41
  • WAB: 38

The Knights seemed safely in the field for most of February (and probably still get into the field after a dramatic comeback win in overtime against Cincinnati on Wednesday at the Big 12 tournament). But UCF’s seed line could test the NCAA Tournament selection committee because its predictive metrics have lagged behind its results-based rankings all season long. UCF’s 10-9 record in quad one and two games this season compares favorably with other teams competing for the last at large bids, but the Knights remain outside the top 50 in the KenPom and Torvik rankings after a three-game losing skid to Baylor, Oklahoma State and West Virginia to close the regular season. 

Texas (18-14)

  • NET: 42
  • KenPom: 39
  • BPI: 39
  • Torvik: 45
  • KPI: 45
  • SOR: 46
  • WAB: 65

There could be a fascinating debate in the selection committee room revolving around the Longhorns, Missouri and Oklahoma of the SEC. Texas has the best NET, KenPom and BPI rating among the three thanks to its top-20 offense, but enters Selection Sunday with losses in five of its past six games after a first-round setback to Ole Miss on Wednesday at the SEC tournament. Oklahoma’s five-game winning streak entering Thursday included wins over Missouri and Texas. Missouri, meanwhile, leads in every results-based metric, which is why the Tigers’ spot in the field feels more secure than Texas or Oklahoma. The Longhorns have notable wins over Alabama and Vanderbilt in January, a 2-1 record this season against Missouri and Oklahoma, and several blowouts early to boost their predictive metrics. But they’ve also got a quad three loss on their resume, something neither Missouri nor Oklahoma have on theirs. 

Cincinnati (18-15)

  • NET: 46
  • KenPom: 43
  • BPI: 43
  • Torvik: 31
  • KPI: 58
  • SOR: 67
  • WAB: 66

Coach Wes Miller entered his fifth season leading the Bearcats mentioned on hot seat lists and his departure seemed a foregone conclusion once Cincinnati began this season poorly. A surge in recent weeks, including wins over BYU and Kansas, boosted the Bearcats’ predictive metrics to that of a bubble team. Their results-based metrics still lag, however, with a quad four loss to Eastern Michigan in November looming particularly large now that they lost Wednesday’s Big 12 tournament game to UCF. This year’s soft bubble offers a glimmer of hope ahead of Selection Sunday, which could well determine Miller’s future.

Stanford (20-12)

  • NET: 62
  • KenPom: 60
  • BPI: 73
  • Torvik: 60
  • KPI: 41
  • SOR: 63
  • WAB: 56

The Cardinal’s metrics aren’t going to help them in the bubble conversation ahead of Selection Sunday, especially after their loss to Pittsburgh in the opening round of the ACC tournament. Stanford is outside the top 60 in predictive metrics and outside the 50 in results-based rankings, but a closer look at their resume explains why they will be considered by the selection committee. The Cardinal have a 9-8 record in quad one and quad two games. Most of their competition for the final at large spots have better metrics but don’t have an above .500 mark against the best teams on the schedule like Stanford.

VCU (24-7)

  • NET: 44
  • KenPom: 46
  • BPI: 47
  • Torvik: 52
  • KPI: 32
  • SOR: 42
  • WAB: 42

If the Rams can’t secure the Atlantic-10 Conference’s automatic NCAA Tournament berth, their at-large candidacy could become a talking point on Selection Sunday. They certainly don’t want to risk losing Friday’s A-10 Conference tournament quarterfinal matchup. VCU’s predictive metrics lag behind its results-based metrics because its only loss in the past two months occurred on the road against league leader Saint Louis. But the Rams’ best wins in non conference play were over Virginia Tech and South Florida. VCU’s latest trip to March Madness could be decided by how tough the selection committee perceives the rest of the A-10 to be this season.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NCAA bracketology 2026: Most polarizing teams by March Madness metrics

March Madness bracketology: NCAA tournament bubble picture gets shakeup

Miami (Ohio) dropped its MAC quarterfinal to UMass to fall to 31-1 but the RedHawks don’t fall out of the USA TODAY Sports bracketology field prediction after an unbeaten regular season.

Thanks to results elsewhere during conference championship week – including one crucial result in the SEC – the RedHawks dip down the No. 11 line into one of the NCAA tournament play-in games. This wouldn’t be a terrible result for Miami, which is located just an hour from Dayton, Ohio, which hosts the play-in round.

Miami stays ahead of fellow bubble teams such as Auburn and Missouri, which lost in the second round of the SEC tournament, and Indiana, a loser to Northwestern in the Big Ten tournament.

Auburn had a chance to punch its NCAA ticket by beating Tennessee but couldn’t stop freshman Nate Ament, who returned from injury after missing about two weeks and poured in 27 points in the Volunteers’ 72-62 win. Missouri lost 78-72 to Kentucky and is now on the wrong side of the bubble.

Indiana was in position to make the field before its second loss of the season to Northwestern.

The bubble remains messy but is starting to get a little clearer as contenders advance in or fall out of tournament play.

One contender making a late move is Oklahoma, which dropped nine midseason games in a row but has rebounded to go 8-2 in its last 10. The Sooners have recently added wins against Auburn, Texas before strong efforts against South Carolina and Texas A&M at the SEC tournament.

Two contenders to watch are Mountain West rivals San Diego State and New Mexico, which will meet in the conference semifinals. While the Aztecs or Lobos could make it easy by going ahead and winning the MWC title, the winner of the semifinal is in good shape for an at-large spot.

March Madness last four in

Santa Clara, Virginia Commonwealth, SMU, Miami (Ohio).

March Madness first four out

New Mexico, Oklahoma, Auburn, Indiana,.

NCAA Tournament bids conference breakdown

Multi-bid leagues: SEC (10), Big Ten (9), ACC (8), Big 12 (8), Big East (3), West Coast (3), Atlantic 10 (2), MAC (2).

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: March Madness bracket predictions: NCAA Tournament bubble picture changes

March Madness predictions: One of these teams will win NCAA Tournament

Based on recent NCAA tournament trends, only a few teams are likely true national championship contenders once March Madness officially gets underway.

Seven of the last eight national champions were No. 1 seeds, with Connecticut the lone exception as a No. 4 seed in 2023. The Huskies were also a bit more talented than their seed displayed, especially as they repeated as national champions the following season.

Moreover, 18 of the last 25 national champions since 2000 have been No. 1 seeds. The last team higher than a No. 4 seed to win the national championship was also UConn in 2014, meaning the Huskies hold both spots as the highest-seeded teams to win a title since 2000.

Three No. 3 seeds have won national titles since 2000, and one No. 2 seed has won during that time.

Suffice to say, if a team dominates the regular season, it's a good predictor of national championship odds. Here's a look at the nine teams that can win a national championship in 2026 based on seeding trends:

Duke

Duke, the No. 1 overall seed in USA TODAY Sports' bracket projections, has been a wagon this season. Led by true freshman Cameron Boozer, one of the top national player of the year candidates, the Blue Devils finished 29-2 in the regular season with a long list of impressive wins over fellow projected 1-seeds in Michigan and Florida; 2-seed Michigan State; 4-seeds Kansas and Virginia; and 6-seed North Carolina (twice).

Duke ranks No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 5 in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom, and is likely the national championship front runner right now.

Arizona

Arizona is a lock for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament alongside Duke, Michigan and Florida. All the Wildcats did this season was dominate one of the best conferences in college basketball.

Arizona finished the season with a 29-2 record, including a 16-2 mark in Big 12 play. The Wildcats lost back-to-back games to Kansas and Texas Tech in February, but won every other game otherwise, including wins over Iowa State, Kansas, Houston, Alabama, UConn and Florida.

Arizona ranks No. 3 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 7 in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom. It also ranks No. 15 in strength of schedule.

Michigan

Another lock for a No. 1 seed, Michigan also dominated the regular season. The Wolverines suffered one loss in Big Ten play, which came to Wisconsin early in the season before they ran the table in the conference, only losing again to Duke in a neutral site game in February.

Michigan has the tools to win a national title and forms a big three alongside Duke and Arizona as the top contenders for the national title, with Florida likely right behind.

Florida

Defending national champion Florida was 9-5 at one point this season after dropping its SEC opener to Missouri. That followed nonconference losses to UConn, Duke, Arizona and TCU. But then something clicked for the Gators, and they went on to win 16 of their last 17 games to end the regular season, looking like one of the top national title contenders once again.

Led by a trio of returners from last season's national championship team in Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu, Florida boasts one of the strongest frontcourts in college basketball. The Gators are the current front runners to earn the last No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, which puts them easily in national title contention, especially with their run to end the regular season.

Florida ranks fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom, which coincidentally is only behind the three teams ahead of it on this list.

UConn

UConn has proven capable in the past of winning a national championship from a variety of different seeding spots in the NCAA tournament. The Huskies are shaping up to be a No. 2 seed in 2026, though, putting them near the very top of national title contenders.

UConn's upset loss to Marquette to end the regular season might have cost its chance at a No. 1 seed, but coach Dan Hurley's squad has the potential to win the school's third title in four seasons. The Huskies lack a go-to scorer, but have a trio of veterans in Solo Ball, Tarris Reed Jr. and Alex Karaban, along with projected NBA lottery pick Braylon Mullins and Georgia transfer Silas Demary Jr. that makes one of the best starting lineups in college basketball.

UConn was a No. 8 seed last season and still nearly took down eventual national champion Florida in the second round of March Madness.

Michigan State

Michigan State coach Tom Izzo has one of his better squads in recent years, led by standout guard Jeremy Fears Jr., who leads the Big Ten in assists per game (9.1) this season.

The Spartans last won a national title in 2000, although they were runners-up in 2009. They've also reached three Final Fours since 2010. Michigan State is projected as a No. 2 seed in USA TODAY Sports' projections.

Houston

Houston returned three starters from its runners-up squad a season ago, and replaced the players it lost with a pair of five-star true freshman, including Kingston Flemings, a projected top-five pick in the upcoming NBA draft.

Flemings raised the Cougars' offensive ceiling this season, pacing the team with 16.5 points and 6.4 assists per game. They also have their typical strong defense, which ranks No. 6 nationally, per KenPom.

Coach Kelvin Sampson is one of the best coaches to never win a national title, and he has led Houston agonizingly close in recent years. Maybe the Cougars get over the hump in 2026 as a projected No. 2 seed, per USA TODAY Sports.

Gonzaga

Three No. 3 seeds have won the national championship since 2003, and Gonzaga is projected to be on the No. 3 line in 2026, per USA TODAY Sports. The Bulldogs have one of the best frontcourts in college basketball with Graham Ike and Braden Huff, and will be a tough out if they can get strong play from their backcourt or get hot from 3-point range.

Gonzaga has one of the best coaches in the sport in Mark Few and have been runners-up for the national championship in both 2017 and 2021. It also has the defense to make a run, which ranks ninth, per KenPom.

Kansas

Never count out the Jayhawks and coach Bill Self in March Madness, especially with one of the best scorers in college basketball on their roster.

True freshman Darryn Peterson has been healthy as of late, playing 29 or more minutes in all five of Kansas' final games of the regular season. His availability raises Kansas' ceiling tremendously in the NCAA tournament.

Kansas also has a strong defense, led by Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Flory Bidunga. Kansas, also led by veteran guards Tre White and Melvin Council Jr., has a team capable of winning a national championship when Peterson is at his best.

Kansas is projected to be a No. 4 seed by USA TODAY Sports, and one No. 4 seed has won a national title since 2000 (UConn in 2023).

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: March Madness predictions: One of these teams will win NCAA Tournament

‘That day changed my life’: when Italy beat England in rugby league

Italy have finally beaten England at rugby union. Their rugby league team did it at the first attempt

By No Helmets Required

In a bar at the Valle d’Aosta ski resort last Saturday evening, there were only two people celebrating when Tommaso Menoncello raced away to seal Italy’s first win against England in rugby union, at the 33rd attempt. One of them was on the field the day Italy beat England at rugby league. Not that Gioele Celerino told the England fans who surrounded him and his pal, offering congratulations on Italy’s historic triumph. “I was too humble!” he jokes. “In the pub, everyone came over to me and the other guy and said ‘congratulations’ like we had just finished playing!”

Celerino was part of the team that beat England in a warm-up match before the World Cup in October 2013. Steve McNamara’s star-studded England side – Kevin Sinfield, Rob Burrow, Sam Tomkins et all – were stunned by an Italy team drawn from Australia, France, Argentina and England, coached by Carlo Napolitano, the son of Salford restaurateurs.

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