Rotation battles aren’t always super-interesting when you’re projected to threaten triple-digit losses for the fourth straight year. But they’re always happening! Here are some thoughts and ideas about how the spring might change what this year’s Opening Day starting five looks like.
Absolute, 100% Locks
Shane Smith
In a way, Smith is the reason for this whole exercise. The point is that no matter how much you think you know, you never know. A year ago ago, most of us were operating under the assumption that Smith would likely as not be returned to Milwaukee by the time the rosters got set.
Something I always look for when a young player appears to break out is how they respond after the league has adjusted to their initial outburst. We saw it in action with Smith last year, as I think most of us knew we would. Even with the 2.37 ERA he carried into June 17 last year, the way he subsequently got torched for 25 earned runs over his next 22 2/3 innings brought us to a crossroads as to whether Smith was just another flash in the pan.
Fortunately, Smith responded. Just as much as his electric start to 2025, the reason he’s a lock for a 2026 rotation spot is because of how he finished, running a 3.09 ERA while averaging 5.5 innings per start in 10 starts down the stretch. He’ll enter camp as the frontrunner to take the ball on Opening Day, probably no matter how he looks in March.
Anthony Kay
Kay is being paid $15 million over two seasons to soak up starts in the middle of the rotation, and hopefully do it well enough that he’ll either fetch a worthwhile trade return or perhaps even incentivize the White Sox to extend him at a reasonable rate. So, that’s exactly where he’s going to be. No competition to see here.
Seem certain, but you really just never know
Sean Burke
Lock seems like quite a strong label for Burke right now, but I came about THIS close to putting him in that category pretty much solely because of this:
I dare you to raise your hand if you thought Burke was capable of doing that before seeing it with your own eyes. Let’s do one more, for good measure:
Smith stole all the headlines early in the season, but among the all the Sox young starters Burke was quietly the most solid over the bulk of the season, pacing the rotation (sans Houser) with a 3.96 ERA over 86 1/3 innings from May 23 on. Promisingly, it was accompanied by an above-average 26.5% strikeout rate and manageably subpar 9.5% walk rate. His arsenal might not be quite as sharp, but I’d argue Burke flashed about as much upside as Smith last season. For that reason, I actually think he’s more of a lock to walk out of camp with a job than the below.
Davis Martin
I’ve long been the conductor of the Davis Martin Hype Train™, but it wouldn’t be the most shocking thing in the world to me if he’s not quite the lock he’s been reported to be. It’s still a very, very safe bet he’ll open the year taking turns in the rotation for the second straight year, and I’m perfectly happy about that. Still, questions linger.
The resumé and argument for having him as a clear-cut starter is pretty basic. Save a brief stint on the injured list in June, Martin is one of the few members of this roster who’s made it through an entire big league season taking turns in the rotation. He led the team at five-and-a-half innings per start in 2025, and did it while delivering an almost perfectly league-average 4.10 ERA. As of now, there’s no real reason that shouldn’t earn a place to start on the 2026 White Sox.
As of now is the only reason he’s here. While Burke has cranked it up to nearly triple-digits, Martin topped out at 97 mph in 2025. Smith and Burke will be 26 this season, while Martin will pitch the year at 29. If the team’s pitching operation thinks they can get another tick or two of velocity out of Martin in short bursts, he strikes me as a candidate for an on-the-surface unexpected move to the bullpen. A Davis Martin who can hit 98 with multiple secondary pitches over a couple of relief innings might be well more valuable over the next two or three years than a superfluous No. 4 starter. If we see another pitcher with a Smith-type emergence out of nowhere next month, Martin to the pen might suddenly be a more realistic possibility than it would feel right now.
Erick Fedde
I’m trying to convince myself that Fedde is here simply as an insurance policy in case virtually no other young or veteran arms show themselves to be worthy of a rotation spot after some innings in Arizona. Then again, he’s got a $1.5 million major league deal, so again, what else is Fedde doing here if he’s not going to get a shot in the major league rotation? With a year-and-a-half in the rear-view mirror, the 6.5% walk rate Fedde posted with the Sox in 2024 looks pretty solidly like a mirage. If his command of the zone in spring still looks like it has for the large majority of his career, it’s hard seeing there being much justification for putting him in the mix. (Not that that’s ever stopped the Sox before.) Still, the MLB deal and the fact that Fedde and the current staff have an affinity for each makes me think he might have a leg up here that I’m not in love with.
Fifth/Sixth Starter Battle Royale (Veterans)
Sean Newcomb
If Fedde just can’t cut it, Newcomb is probably the next man up as far as veteran presences go. It makes sense that with the team looking to take a substantial step forward in 2026, they’d upgrade on their Bryse Wilson acquisition from 2025, tapping Newcomb to be a quintessential swingman. Newcomb made five starts and averaged almost two innings per outing as a reliever in 2025, and unlike Wilson in his platform year Newcomb was actually successful, running a 2.73 ERA along the way. The team has said it’ll give him a chance to start, and Newcomb almost certainly will pick up some starts over the course of the season. But if he shows enough in the spring to hint that his 2025 relief performance might actually translate to a full-time starting role, Newcomb might have the inside track on a final rotation spot in any real competition.
Jonathan Cannon
Jonathan Cannon is still here! Last year’s showing was not pretty, for sure, and he was the clear loser of last year’s four-man derby among himself, Smith, Martin, and Burke for the inside track at the 2026 rotation. Still, his arsenal remains intriguing, and he’s still young. It’s not out of the question that with some offseason tweaks, Cannon could come barging into Spring Training looking like a guy who very much deserves a shot.
It happens seemingly every year or two, where Spring Training reveals an elite talent that was previously thought to be lost, or even non-existent. In 2021, Carlos Rodón entered camp a changed man. Dylan Cease was visibly ready to make the leap in 2022. Garrett Crochet was a revelation in 2024. Last season gave us Smith, of course. Cannon lacks the pure upside of any of those names, but the point stands. Spring Training is full of surprises, and Cannon could be one of them.
Mike Vasil
Vasil was the first pure reliever to break 100 innings pitched with fewer than four starts since Tony Peña did it for the White Sox in 2010 (Jalen Beeks broke 100 innings in 2019, though he primarily worked for Tampa Bay as a bulk “starter” following an opener). As such, given that Vasil posted a 2.50 ERA while doing it, it makes sense that he’d be stretched out and given a chance as a starter. It’s also a given that most peripheral numbers say that ERA was very lucky, and also a given that Vasil has simply proven himself to be effective out of the bullpen. If he can come into camp and show that he can meaningfully cut down his 12% walk rate from 2025 while holding his velocity at 94-95 for four or five innings at a time, Vasil has a chance at being a surprise inclusion in the Opening Day five. The last thing that’s also a given, though, is that now that he’s spent his Rule 5 year fully on the roster, he has an option year remaining. The most likely outcome is that if Vasil shows some promise as a starter, he’ll open the year in Charlotte’s rotation to see if he can get acclimated and work out the kinks. But hey, you never know!
Jordan Hicks
Every indication is that Hicks is going to pitch out of the bullpen, but I’m leaving him here just because Brian Bannister was the one running the pitching show in San Francisco when they surprisingly signed Hicks to be a starter in 2023. That being said, if Hicks winds up starting more than a low single digit number of games in 2026, a lot of things have probably gone wrong.
Fifth/Sixth Starter Battle Royale (Young Wild Cards)
David Sandlin/Tanner McDougal
Neither of these guys have the upper-minors experience you see out of typical rotation candidates, but the modern game has increasingly leaned towards eschewing the traditional minor league ladder, especially when it comes to pitching. You only have so many bullets in your arm, the thinking goes. If a guy might be ready, why not spend those bullets where it matters most?
Again, I’d be pretty surprised if we make it halfway through spring games before word (or video) starts spreading of somebody looking completely reinvented. If it should be one of these two, there might not be any sense in giving them the cursory Triple-A look before tossing them out there against big leaguers to see if they’ll swim.
Hagen Smith/Noah Schultz
The only thing that separates the two lefties from those two above is that their pedigree and upside is high enough that you probably don’t want to risk throwing them off the deep end into the major leagues. That being said, everyone knows that the stuff being big-league caliber isn’t the question. If either of these two comes into camp looking like something’s clicked with their command and repeatability in their mechanics, they’ll still probably be asked to work through a few tune-up starts in the high minors. But again, this is the modern game, and with pitching, anything goes. If Hagen Smith is magically filling up the strike zone all of a sudden when we first see him, the list of reasons to keep him down becomes thin.
That’s about the biggest what-if you can imagine, which is why it’s at the bottom of this list.
Have at me in the comments. I know we’re all looking forward to seeing what things look like a month from now.
