The Knicks have been swimming upstream for almost two years.
They have won 50 games the last two seasons and advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals last season, despite trotting out a starting lineup that has produced diminishing returns.
The unit, which features Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, and Karl-Anthony Towns, has been middling at best. The five-man group is outscoring opponents by just 0.7 points per 100 possession this season.
At this point, we’ve seen enough. The starting unit has played 494 minutes together this season, the third-highest in the NBA. Last season, it was the most used five-man lineup in the NBA, hitting the court for 960 minutes.
Initially, the starting five looked elite. Through the first three months of the 2024-25 season, the combination was outscoring teams by 6.6 points per 100 possessions in 561 minutes. But those numbers dropped by the end of the season. The playoffs saw the group reach its nadir. The starters were outscored by 6.2 points per 100 possessions in 335 minutes together.
Former Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau opted to change the starting lineup during the middle of the Eastern Conference Finals last season, inserting center Mitchell Robinson for Hart after Game 2. New York began this season with Robinson in the starting lineup, but went back to Hart quickly.
Thibodeau’s replacement Mike Brown went to Robinson as a starter initially before going back to Hart after an injury to Anunoby in November. New York has gone back to the original five-man unit ever since.
Slow starts
There are several factors contributing to why the lineup hasn’t thrived. Opponents discovered that they can put a wing on Towns while having their center guard Hart. It has mucked up the paint, and disrupted New York’s offensive flow.
Hart is having a career year from three, making 40.9 percent of his attempts. But he can still be a reluctant shooter. Opponents are willing to live with him launching from deep rather than letting Brunson or Towns go one-on-one in the paint. Bridges has also been in a slump recently, creating even more issues.
New York’s defense has been better recently. But over the two seasons, there have been some spells of inconsistency. The starting lineup has also been a mess in the first quarter, which has contributed to the team’s recent trend of slow starts.
The Knicks fell behind, 14-1, in the first few minutes of their 111-94 loss to the Houston Rockets last week.
New York’s starting five has a negative 8.1 net rating in the opening quarter. In the other three quarters, the Knicks are much better. They are a plus-9.8 points per 100 possessions in the fourth quarter.
Options for a change
The Knicks have a few options as replacements. The club can use guards Miles McBride or Landry Shamet. They can go big with Robinson, too.
We haven’t seen much of Robinson as a starter with Towns since the first month of the season, since Robinson hasn’t played back-to-back games this season. In 51 minutes with Robinson in place of Hart, the Knicks have a plus-12.4 points per 100 possessions.
All of these previously mentioned lineups have played so little together that it’s hard to know which ones would actually work.
All of the results of the past two years have shown that this Knicks starting lineup is unlikely to have a turnaround. But there are just four games left in the regular season. With a team gearing up for the playoffs, it sounds unrealistic to make a change this late.
It seems as if Brown will be following a similar path as his predecessor. The most likely scenario will be a starting lineup alteration as a response to falling behind in a playoff series, which could be an impediment to New York’s playoff hopes.