Why the Marcelo Mayer trade doesn't seem too shocking anymore originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
When the news came across our feeds on Monday, it was a bit surprising. Once the return in the deal was reported, it was upgraded to shocking status.
Marcelo Mayer — No. 4 overall pick in 2021, top prospect in the organization from 2022-24 — traded away for … a 28-year-old reliever.
Giving up on such a highly touted prospect so soon, and doing it for a reliever — surely, this represents a flop of all flops, the likes of which this organization has never seen before.
Yet after just the slightest bit of research, it turns out that first-round picks haven’t meant a whole lot to the Red Sox organization — not this century, anyway.
While the team certainly nailed it with the 19th overall pick in 1983 (Roger Clemens), the 15th overall pick in 1971 (Jim Rice) and the 12th overall pick in 1994 (Nomar Garciaparra), the 21st century hasn’t netted the organization much in the way of cornerstone players. And a look through the names and careers in the first 25 years of this century does provide some perspective as to what just happened with Mayer.
The Best Players By WAR
You can evaluate players 17 different ways, but for simplicity’s sake, here are the rankings for the Red Sox’ first-round picks since 2000 by career bWAR.
- Jacoby Ellsbury, 31.0
- Clay Buchholz†, 16.8
- Jackie Bradley Jr.†, 16.6
- Andrew Benintendi*, 16.5
- Jed Lowrie†, 15.4
- David Murphy, 9.9
- Daniel Bard, 8.4
- Tanner Houck*, 7.5
- Michael Kopech*, 6.0
- Matt Barnes, 4.2
- Matt Murton†, 3.3
- Triston Casas*, 2.2
*active player
†supplementary first-round pick
Of the 42 first-round picks by the Red Sox since 2000, those are the best of the best.
Jacoby Ellsbury obviously flashed for a bit — in 2011 with a near-MVP season, and 2013 when he helped the team win a World Series — but was tremendously unremarkable in his 30s with the Yankees.
Clay Buchholz, likewise, flashed for two years — 2010 and 2013 — but essentially fell off a cliff thereafter. He was traded away in 2016 for infielder Josh Tobias, who never reached the majors.
Jackie Bradley Jr. popped as an All-Star in 2016 (.835 OPS) and in the 2018 ALCS (1.067 OPS, series MVP) while proving Gold Glove-level defense but didn’t hit consistently enough to stick around for the long haul. He left via free agency in 2020, came back briefly in 2022, but played his last MLB game in 2023, hitting just .176 over his final three seasons.
Andrew Benintendi was one of the highest Red Sox picks of this century at No. 7 overall, and he looked like a potential franchise cornerstone in his breakout season of 2018 (.830 OPS). But he’s never come close to matching that production, and he’s more or less played at a replacement level from ages 28-31 with the White Sox. He was shipped away in 2021 in a deal that only netted Josh Winckowski and Franchy Cordero (plus three prospects) for the Red Sox.
Jed Lowrie was a functional player for Boston from 2008-11 but was traded in 2011 for closer Mark Melancon. That could have actually been a value add for Boston, but Melancon happened to have the worst season of his career in his lone year with the Red Sox.
David Murphy was a valuable piece in the Red Sox’ trade for Eric Gagne at the 2007 deadline, Michael Kopech was a big piece of the trade to acquire Chris Sale in 2016, and Matt Murton was the other Red Sox player traded alongside Nomar Garciaparra in 2004, netting Orlando Cabrera and Doug Mientkiewicz for Boston.
That last quartet of players — Lowrie, Murphy, Kopech and Murton — could certainly be considered better uses of first-round draft picks in trades than Mayer, with Kopech being the most significant. Still, that deal also involved Yoan Moncada and two other prospects.
The Complete Misses
This is not breaking news, but the MLB Draft is the crapshoot to end all crapshoots. That’s why there are 650 rounds every year. (Technically, there are 20 rounds. If you want to be a stickler.)
And though Mayer absolutely represents a disappointment for the Red Sox — Chaim Bloom’s front office for drafting him, Craig Breslow’s group for developing, and the coaching up and down the organization — his brief Red Sox tenure was not the worst among top-12 picks this century.
The Red Sox drafted left-handed pitcher Trey Ball with the seventh overall pick in 2013. He failed to find success at any level but was nevertheless given a shot at Double-A Portland in 2017. Over two seasons, he posted a 6.06 ERA and 1.795 WHIP. With his pitching career shot, he took a stab at switching to outfield in 2019, an endeavor that lasted all of five games for the Gulf Coast League Red Sox.
The team’s other high pick this century was Jay Groome, a hard-throwing lefty who demanded a $3.65 million signing bonus. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2018 and eventually reached Triple-A in 2022 but was traded to the Padres for Eric Hosmer. He never reached the majors in the Padres’ system.
Nick Yorke was another relatively high pick, taken 17th overall in 2020. At 24 years old, he still has room to grow, but thus far in his MLB career with the Pirates, he’s compiled a -0.4 bWAR and a .588 OPS over 60 games. The Red Sox traded him for Quinn Priester in 2024.
This next list is not intended to mean. It’s merely meant to show how first-round picks have often proved fruitless for the Red Sox.
- LHP Phil Dumatrait, No. 22 overall in 2000, bWAR -1.8
- RHP Michael Bowden, No. 47 overall in 2005, bWAR 0.8
- RHP Craig Hansen, No. 26 overall in 2005, bWAR -1.9
- LHP Kris Johnson, No. 40 overall in 2006, bWAR 0.0
- OF Jason Place, No. 27 overall in 2006, never reached majors
- RHP Caleb Clay, No. 44 overall in 2006, never reached majors
- LHP Nick Hagadone, No. 55 in 2007, -0.2 bWAR
- SS Ryan Dent, No. 62 overall in 2006, never reached majors
- RHP Bryan Price, No. 45 overall in 2007, -0.2 bWAR
- SS/P Casey Kelly, No. 30 overall in 2008, -1.3 bWAR
- CF Rey Fuentes, No. 28 overall in 2009, -0.6 bWAR
- OF Bryce Brentz, No. 36 overall in 2010, 0.0 bWAR
- RHP Anthony Ranaudo, No. 39 overall in 2010, -1.6 bWAR
- 2B Kolbrin Vitek, No. 20 overall in 2010, never reached majors
- LHP Henry Owens, No. 36 overall in 2011, 0.1 bWAR
- C Blake Swihart, No. 26 overall in 2011, -0.6 bWAR
- LHP Brian Johnson, No. 31 overall in 2012, 0.9 bWAR
- SS Deven Marrero, No. 24 overall in 2012, -0.4 bWAR
- RHP Pat Light, No. 37 overall in 2012, -0.7 bWAR
- INF Michael Chavis, No. 26 overall in 2014, 0.1 bWAR
Some of these players provided the Red Sox value in trades. Casey Kelly and Rey Fuentes were in the deal for Adrian Gonzalez. Nick Hagadone was in the deal for Victor Martinez. But for the most part, the Red Sox didn’t get much out of these first-rounders and supplemental first-rounders.
Too Soon To Tell
After taking Marcelo Mayer with the fourth overall pick in 2021, the Red Sox have made six first-round picks.
Catcher Kyle Teel (14th overall in 2023) and outfielder Braden Montgomery (12th in 2024) were traded to the White Sox in the deal for Garrett Crochet, and both have reached the majors.
Kyson Witherspoon, the 15th pick in the 2025 draft, was just traded to the Orioles as part of the package for Adley Rutschman.
Shortstop Mikey Romero (24th overall in 2022) is in Triple-A Worcester, pitcher Marcus Phillips is in High-A Greenville (with a 7.22 ERA), and shortstop Jake Schaffner (No. 20 this year) is just beginning his pro career.
Triston Casas (the No. 26 overall pick in 2018) may have graduated out of the “too soon to tell” list but nevertheless could still make something of his big league career.
So … What’s The Point?
Fair question. Glad you asked.
There’s not necessarily an overarching point, other than the reality that being a first-round pick in the Red Sox organization — or any organization, for that matter — doesn’t guarantee much.
While it’s no doubt a disappointment for a No. 4 overall pick like Mayer to never really take off for the Red Sox, he’ll simply join a long line of names who had the same story.