After completing the long journey back following Tommy John surgery, the young right-hander appeared to have found his groove over his second and third outings at the Triple-A level.
Scott gave up seven runs in his regular season opener for Syracuse, but bounced back nicely to allow just two runs while striking out 12 batters in 10.1 innings of work over the next two starts.
So with the back end of the Mets’ rotation struggling, they decided to give him a shot.
“The way Scotty's been throwing the ball, we knew it was just going to be a matter of time before he was going to help us -- here we are giving him that opportunity, he's earned it and we're excited,” Carlos Mendoza said.
Things, however, didn’t quite go as planned.
The 26-year-old, who was calm and collected in his first call-up back in 2024, was a bit overwhelmed by the moment as he lasted just 1.1 innings before being pulled.
Scott simply could not find the zone, issuing a career-high five walks and hitting a batter.
“It started to get away [from me],” he told Anthony DiComo on MLB.com. “It was just like first walk, second walk, and that’s not really who I am -- then you start aiming. You try to throw the ball over the plate. It kind of spiraled on me.”
The Mets sent Scott back down to Syracuse one day later, but with Kodai Senga landing on the IL earlier this week, it created another opportunity for him to show he belongs at this level.
Scott is set to take the ball in Friday night’s series-opener against the Angels.
“I still trust my stuff and believe in it," he said. "I know if I go out there, I belong at this level. So I’m not too worried about it. Definitely something to learn from, to take with me to the next couple of starts and throughout my career.
“You can’t let the moment get too big like that, especially when things start to go south -- I’m excited for the opportunity to come back and be able to pitch again.”
Gloves will be off in Saturday’s lunchtime kick-offs as all three clubs hope to join Coventry in the top-flight
If Ipswich do not achieve promotion this month the image may be permanently seared into Jack Clarke’s retinas. He had slalomed through Southampton’s defence in the final act of a dizzying cameo on Tuesday night and, from an angle on the left, unleashed a near-flawless drive across Daniel Peretz. Replays barely do justice to the home No 1’s left-handed save but the key detail is that he somehow got a touch on the ball and glanced it millimetres wide, with Clarke preparing to wheel off towards the visiting fans. It was 2-2 in the 94th minute and Ipswich would have been home and dry with a win but for the merest snick off the edges of Peretz’s goalkeeping apparel.
It means the gloves will be off on Saturday lunchtime at Portman Road, the Den and far beyond. The league’s finale is poised deliciously and, even if the Championship winners, Coventry, are long gone, nobody is going quietly in the wait for second. Will Ipswich, experienced in such scenarios under Kieran McKenna, use quality and muscle memory to preserve second spot? Could Alex Neil’s relentless Millwall offer up the story of the season by returning to the big time after 36 years away? Or will Kim Hellberg and Middlesbrough, seemingly a top-flight team in waiting for much of the campaign before falling away, orchestrate one last twist?
Let's finish the week off in a big way after Yordan Alvarez decided to go deep in Game 2 after we bet him to go yard in Game 1 of yesterday's doubleheader.
It's May, which means it's getting nicer, and it's time to pick off those MLB player props.
I want a piece of the White Sox bats vs. German Marquez and the San Diego bullpen, and the Blue Jays can stack runs vs. a starter they've already tagged once this year.
These are my favorite home run props for Friday, May 1.
UPDATE: Added a Hunter Goodman HR pick + a 160/1 HR parlay!
Best MLB home run props today
Player to hit a HR
Odds
Miguel Vargas
+570
Jesus Sanchez
+540
Hunter Goodman
+369
Home run pick: Miguel Vargas (+570)
The Chicago White Sox have one of the best hitting matchups on the slate, and Miguel Vargas at +570 offers the best +EV in the lineup.
Vargas has boosted his OPS from .593 to .805 over the last 10 days, powered by four homers. He’s drawing more walks than strikeouts and is seeing the ball well with a .511 OBP.
The real target here is Germán Márquez and a San Diego Padres bullpen that has been hit around lately. Márquez owns some of the worst Blast Contact numbers, his fly balls are leaving the yard at a high rate, and he has one of the worst xFIPs among MLB starters.
Add in a Padres bullpen with the third-worst ERA over the last two weeks, and it sets up well for Chicago bats.
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Padres.TV, Chicago Sports Network
Home run pick: Jesus Sanchez (+540)
Let’s take a left-handed bat vs. Simeon Woods Richardson, who is firmly circled as a fade.
He faced the Toronto Blue Jays three starts ago and got shelled for five runs while lasting just 12 outs, with Toronto putting up 10 runs in that game.
Outside of José Quintana, Woods Richardson owns the worst xFIP among today’s starters, and his Blast Contact numbers are also near the bottom. He’s allowed a home run in every start this year, and the Jays benefit from recent familiarity.
The Minnesota Twins bullpen could also give it up, carrying a 5.40 ERA over the last 14 days — the fourth-worst mark in baseball over that stretch.
Jesús Sánchez at this price is the play for me. His swing speed ranks among the best on the team, and his fast-swing rate trails only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. I’ll take him over Dalton Varsho, who is 50 points shorter.
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Twins.TV, SN1
Home run pick: Hunter Goodman (+369)
With a poor weather slate, let’s head to Coors Field and take the most probable home-run hitter in that game, per Covers MLB prop projections.
I have Grant Holmes circled as a fade: He gave up a pair of dingers in his last start, and his Blast Contact numbers, HR/FB rate, and xFIP all point to more longballs coming. He’s also pitched at Coors before (2024) and allowed five runs over five innings.
Hunter Goodman has homered in three straight series and launched two vs. the Reds just two games ago. He has four HRs over his last six games and hasn’t even needed Coors to go deep this year, with nine homers already on the road in 2026.
There aren’t many +EV home-run looks today, but Goodman is always worth a play at +350 or better
Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: COLR, BravesVsn
Josh Inglis' 2026 Transparency Record
HR picks: 9-52, -4.9u units
Today’s HR parlay
Miguel Vargas
Bet Now +16154
Jesus Sanchez
Hunter Goodman
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
The Lakers took the first three games of the series, but have dropped the last two, including a 99-93 loss in Game 5.
The Rockets are looking to become the first NBA team to force a Game 7 since the Boston Celtics in the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals against the Miami Heat. Each of the three previous NBA teams that forced a series finale down 0-3 lost Game 7.
Doncic was injured on April 2 against the Oklahoma City Thunder, diagnosed with a Grade 2 left hamstring strain, and hasn't played since.
Should the Lakers advance, their opponent will be the Thunder, who beat Los Angeles in all four regular-season meetings, winning by an average of 22 points per game. Doncic is not expected to be ready for the start of that series because of the injury.
SEATTLE, WA - APRIL 11: Members of the Seattle Mariners celebrate after winning the game between the Houston Astros and the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on Saturday, April 11, 2026 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Eric Hiller/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Rick Rizzs Happy Totals: 16 Dan Wilson Tough One Tonights: 16 Run Differential: +7
PITTSBURGH — The almost maniacal preparation Paul Skenes pours into every start already is the stuff of legend, just two years into his career.
Still, even the Pittsburgh Pirates ace knows no matter how his pregame routine goes, he’s never really sure what kind of stuff he’s going to have on a given day until he steps onto the mound and the leadoff hitter steps into the box.
Many times, such as in Milwaukee, it nearly is perfect.
Then there are afternoons like against St. Louis, when the command that seems to come so easily looks far more ordinary than extraordinary.
Skenes’ third pitch of the game landed in the right-field seats at PNC Park courtesy of Cardinals rookie JJ Wetherholt. Three batters later, Jordan Walker turned on a sweeper that didn’t sweep and sent it into the first row of bleachers in left to give the Cardinals the early momentum on their way to a 10-5 victory and a four-game sweep.
The loss dropped Skenes (4-2) to 0-5 against the Cardinals, though that number is a little misleading. His career ERA versus St. Louis sits at 2.95, even after allowing five runs, four earned, in his first rocky performance since a bumpy opening day in New York against the Mets.
That number is telling of the almost impossibly high standard Skenes has set for himself during his rapid rise from first overall draft pick to arguably the best pitcher in the game.
“Nobody expects more out of Paul Skenes than Paul does out of himself,” Pirates manager Don Kelly said. “I think when he has a game like today or the opener, we have to find a way to pick him, because he picks us up all the time.”
Yet given a chance to put a halt to Pittsburgh’s first rough patch this season, Skenes didn’t quite have it. He fell behind Wetherholt 2-0 before the St. Louis second baseman turned on a 95 mph fastball — a tick below the usual 98-99 range Skenes sits at — and laced it into the seats above the Roberto Clemente Wall in right.
Ivan Herrera followed with an infield single. Two batters later, Walker pounced on an 83 mph sweeper that caught the inside part of the plate. The ball sailed just over the glove of Pittsburgh left fielder Jake Mangum, sending the Cardinals on their way to their first four-game sweep at PNC Park since 2019.
Asked why St. Louis might have his number — relatively speaking — the 23-year-old Skenes responded with his typical mix of sarcasm and blunt truth.
“They score more runs than us,” he said.
Skenes settled in — his nine strikeouts were a season high — but when the Cardinals were able to make contact, they made things happen. They added a run in the third after an infield single by Alec Burleson and a throwing error by rookie shortstop Konnor Griffin led to an RBI single by Nolan Gorman. In the fifth, Burleson flipped his bat at a changeup well off the plate and dumped it into left field to drive in Wetherholt.
“I think that sometimes teams go up there, try to work his pitch count, try to get that up,” Kelly said. “It doesn’t seem to be the case. They’re going up there swinging and trying to get their swing off. ... They put some good swings on the ball today.”
The Pirates fell to 16-16, hardly the horrific start of a year ago that cost former manager Derek Shelton his job, but it also has them off the pace a bit in the hyper-competitive NL Central with first-place Cincinnati coming in for the weekend.
“I mean, every team is going to have skids,” Skenes said. “Just got to get back to who we are and just play our game. Not try to do too much. Just think we’re trying to do too much a little bit, especially today. Just got to be us.”
Pittsburgh second baseman Brandon Lowe said the quiet part out loud about how spoiled the Pirates have become when Skenes’ familiar No. 30 is standing on the mound.
“It’s pretty difficult when you sit there and you’re saying, ‘Oh, he struggled’ and he gave up three (runs),” Lowe said.
Lowe, one of a handful of veterans acquired in the offseason to surround the Pirates’ young core that includes Skenes and the 20-year-old Griffin, is not concerned about the last week snowballing into something that would put a damper on the positive vibes created during a season that began with plenty of promise.
“When you’re in the training room, you’re in the tubs and stuff like that, showers, you just kind of have conversations and talking with these guys for a long time,” said Lowe, who hit his eighth home run of the season in the seventh. “They have a pretty good head on their shoulders and the way they look at things. ... So it’s just one of those things, you kind of flush the bad ones and focus on the next one.”
Welcome to the Friday night pressure cooker, with three tasty Game 6s on tap, big-name reputations on the line, and a bonanza of NBA player props to dissect.
The Cavaliers will try to close out Collin Murray-Boyles and the frisky Toronto Raptors, while Desmond Bane and the Magic look to send the Pistons packing.
Then there’s LeBron James and the L.A. Lakers feeling the heat as a 3-0 series lead slips away.
Here are my favorite NBA picks for the May 1 action.
The Magic have the Pistons on the ropes, but they’ll need the best of Desmond Bane to land the knockout punch tonight, especially with Franz Wagner ruled out.
Bane is only shooting 38% from the field overall in this series, but he’s making his 3-pointers at a 43% clip.
Given his up-and-down points tallies, I prefer the Over on his triples here. He’s cashed this prop in three straight outings while making 16 of his 29 attempts from downtown.
After Paolo Banchero’s 45-point eruption in Game 5, we could see Detroit make some defensive adjustments to pack the paint, and any double teams would open up a little extra space for Bane from deep.
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Prime Video
Prop #2: Collin Murray-Boyles Over 6.5 rebounds
-112 at bet365
Collin Murray-Boyles has looked right at home from the moment he stepped into the playoff cauldron, and he’s a key man here as the Raptors try to force a Game 7.
CMB has been a beast in the paint, with 7+ rebounds in three of the last four contests despite battling Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, and he’s blown past this O/U number in both outings at Scotiabank Arena.
Foul trouble limited him to 26 minutes in Game 5, but he could be looking at his biggest workload of the series tonight, given his ability to switch onto the Cleveland guards and Jakob Poeltl’s struggles defending the pick and roll.
Murray-Boyles grabbed five offensive boards in Sunday’s win, and there should be rebounds up for grabs after the Cavs shot a combined 40% from the field in their two losses in Toronto.
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Prime Video
Prop #3: LeBron James Over 22.5 points
-112 at bet365
Look for LeBron James to come out in attack mode in Game 6, with growing fears that the Lakers could become the first team to blow a 3-0 lead. He won’t want that on his resume in the same week that he’s brought up the G.O.A.T. conversation again.
Even with Austin Reaves returning, L.A. needs James to be a high-volume shooter, and I like this Over on the heels of 25+ points in three of his past four games. LeBron’s slump from beyond the arc is a concern, but there are still positives for the Lakers if it nudges him into the post more often.
He’s shooting 51% on 2-pointers in this series, and that’s the recipe for JJ Redick’s men to escape with a victory here.
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Who will win Reds vs Pirates today: Reds moneyline (+116)
The Cincinnati Reds will send Brady Singer to the hill tonight, and he’s held the Pittsburgh Pirates lineup to a .234 average across 77 at-bats. Singer has also allowed three runs or fewer in each of his last three starts. In his last road outing, the righty allowed three earned to the Minnesota Twins across six innings of work.
The Bucs are hitting just .244 against right-handers, and they’ve dropped five games in a row. Pittsburgh was just swept at home by the St. Louis Cardinals. Mitch Keller has given up seven earned runs across his last two outings at PNC Park.
While he’s held the Reds to a .220 average in 118 at-bats, Cincy is playing good baseball right now, and their 10-3 road record is very impressive. The Pirates are just 8-9 at home.
COVERS INTEL: Mitch Keller has struggled in night games, posting an 8.00 ERA across two starts.
Reds vs Pirates Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 runs (+100)
Both starters have pitched quite well lately, giving their respective teams a chance to win. However, neither has been completely lights out, and both bullpens have been shaky over the last week, giving up numerous runs in the middle and late innings.
Also, the Over has comfortably hit in back-to-back meetings, with both games finishing 8-3. The Bucs were atrocious on the hill against the Cardinals, allowing 10 or more runs in two of the three contests – at home.
The Reds are a very good team on the road, and whether it’s against Keller, the Pittsburgh bullpen, or both, they will add to the Pirates’ misery with a solid offensive performance.
Quinn Allen's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets:9-9, -4.45 units
Over/Under bets:10-8, 0.48 units
Reds vs Pirates odds
Moneyline: Cincinnati +114 | Pittsburgh -126
Run line: Cincinnati +1.5 (+183) | Pittsburgh -1.5 (+158)
Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+101) | Under 8.5 (-116)
Reds vs Pirates trend
The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 away games (+8.65 Units / 66% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Pirates.
How to watch Reds vs Pirates and game info
Location
PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
Date
Friday, May 1, 2026
First pitch
6:45 p.m. ET
TV
Apple TV
Reds starting pitcher
Brady Singer (2-1, 4.97 ERA)
Pirates starting pitcher
Mitch Keller (2-1, 3.18 ERA)
Reds vs Pirates latest injuries
Reds vs Pirates weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
LeBron James and his loveable band of misfits built a shocking 3-0 series lead over the Houston Rockets, much like the script from some 90’s Disney movie.
The past two games, however, have been more like a horror flick for the Los Angeles Lakers.
Houston has rallied to force a Game 6 showdown at home, and even with Austin Reaves returning for L.A., the Rockets are favorites to send this series to seven games.
I dive into the player markets for my best Lakers vs. Rockets props and NBA picks for Friday, May 1.
Best Lakers vs Rockets props for Game 6
Player
Pick
Luke Kennard
Over 1.5 threes
+140
Alperen Sengun
Over 6.5 assists
+110
Tari Eason
Under 7.5 rebounds
-125
Game 6 Prop #1: Luke Kennard Over 1.5 threes
+140 at bet365
Luke Kennard made the biggest splash among the Los Angeles Lakers’ role players early in this series. With Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves out, Kennard stepped into the starting lineup and knocked down eight of his first 11 attempts from deep.
The past three games haven’t been as kind to Kennard, who is a collective 1-for-11 from beyond the arc since Game 3.
After such a hot start to the playoffs, the Lakers haven’t shot the ball well as a team, but I expect this up-and-down success to level out in Game 6.
Kennard still played 30+ minutes with Reaves back in the rotation in Game 5, and it’s not like the Houston Rockets are clamping down on the perimeter. Over the past three games, 10 of Kennard's 11 3PAs have been graded as “open” to “wide open”, with the closest defender at least four feet away.
Projections for Game 6 range from 1.6 to 2.1 makes from beyond the arc from Kennard, with a healthy plus-money return on the Over.
Game 6 Prop #2: Alperen Sengun Over 6.5 assists
+110 at bet365
Alperen Sengun dished out eight assists in the Rockets’ win on Wednesday, and the Turkish center has been their most active passer in the series. Sengun has registered 61 potential assists through five games, with Houston converting those setups into 27 actual dimes.
His teammates made good on eight of 16 potential assists in Game 5, which is impressive considering how poorly the Rockets shot the ball in that slog of a win.
The return home tonight will give Houston a bump in field goal success (48.1% at home vs. 46.9% on the road), which means more of those potential plays will translate into buckets. Sengun’s projections all sit north of 6.5 dimes, with a ceiling of seven assists in Game 6.
You can find expensive Over 5.5 or plus-money Over 6.5 totals across the market. Shop around for what you’re comfortable with.
Game 6 Prop #3: Tari Eason Under 7.5 rebounds
-125 at bet365
Tari Eason has been excellent defensively during the Rockets’ turnaround. He’s drawn the daunting assignment of guarding LeBron while also cleaning the glass, averaging seven rebounds in the series.
Eason hit the boards hard in the opening two games, pulling down 18 total rebounds on 23 rebounding chances — a sharp surge from his season average. Over the past three games, he’s collected 17 total rebounds on 28 chances, including five boards on just nine rebounding chances in Game 5.
With Eason primarily guarding James, his floor positioning shifts with Reaves back in the L.A. rotation. LeBron takes over as the primary ball handler, playing more on the perimeter while Reaves looks to attack the Houston interior.
As a result, Eason is pulled out to the perimeter, which helps explain why his rebounding opportunities dipped with Reaves back in Game 5 — and why his projections fall short of tonight’s rebounding total. The 6-foot-6 forward is forecasted for around seven boards, with most models sitting south of 7.0.
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HOUSTON, TEXAS - APRIL 01: Carlos Correa #1 of the Houston Astros reacts after hitting a home run in the fifth inning against the Boston Red Sox at Daikin Park on April 01, 2026 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Houston Astros/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The last time we took a broad look at the “upside down” standings was two weeks ago, when the MLB season was at the 1/8th mark. This weekend marks the 1/5th mark, 20 percent of the way through the season. Out of all 30 teams, here are the bottom six:
It’s a good reminder that, as much as it doesn’t seem that way based on recent events, Boston isn’t the only city whose baseball team has greatly disappointed thus far. And possibly the most appalling tidbit in that screenshot is that the Red Sox are just 3.5 games out of the playoffs as we enter the month of May.
Remember the first week of the season when the Astros handily swept the Red Sox in Houston, and it looked like Boston wasn’t even in the same league as the team they were playing? They then went on to lose nine of their next ten, including being swept by the (not terrible) Rockies. The Astros have a worse record than the Red Sox this season.
We see the Astros again this weekend, and they are 4-12 on the road on the season. Their injured list includes pitchers Hunter Brown, Tatsuya Imai, Cristian Javier, and Josh Hader. It includes shortstop Jeremy Pena and outfielders Joey Loperfido and Jake Meyers.
Houston’s pitching is the worst in all of baseball this season, with a team ERA of 6.08, almost a full run worse than the next team (Washington – 5.11). The bullpen ERA of 6.63 is particularly alarming. The Sox will face Mike Burrows (6.25 ERA), Spencer Arrighetti (2.00), and a new addition to the rotation in Kai-Wei Teng (2.75) in this series. As a team, Houston is walking batters at an MLB worst 13.7%. Take a strike this weekend, will ya?
Which of these teams, the Astros or the Red Sox, has been the bigger disappointment thus far? What about throughout the entire league? (The answer is probably the Mets.) Discuss in the comments and enjoy the weekend!
Aaron Kleinman of Heartland Signal tells us about his enduring love of the Hartford Whalers, his home state’s former NHL team, whose final road game was against the Islanders at Nassau Coliseum.
It’s been almost 30 years since the Whalers last took the ice at the Hartford Civic Center, the only rink in NHL history located inside of a shopping mall. While the team had limited success in its time, it cultivated a rabid fanbase that still misses its best players, legendary logo, classic marching band theme song and other quaint charms. But rooting for a goofball team in a very small market feels like you’re getting away with something. And as you try to keep the scam going for as long as possible, the jig always comes up.
As a born and bred son of The Constitution State and a huge sports fan from birth, Aaron lived and died by the Whalers and still carries with him the memories and scars from their eventual move to Raleigh, NC. He tells us about how the team excelled at falling just barely short of the playoffs, what it was like living across the street from Whalers GM Jim Rutherford (and in the same town as tough guy Glen Featherstone) and the particular indignities of having your team bought and moved by a guy sporting a ponytail. Aaron also talks about how the team’s off-ice strife shaped his outlook on the world, even at a very young age.
Of course, we do cover some Weird Islanders here including a legendary tough guy of our own and two defensive defensemen we never thought we’d ever get a chance to cover on the show. Turns out there’s a lot of connective tissue between these two teams aside from one game late in a lost season for both of them.
We can’t thank Aaron enough for his time and sharing his very vivid memories of his favorite team. He’s a great guy to chat with and has been a legendary sports poster for many years. Check out Heartland Signal and his own free newsletter, Radio Free America.
After time with the Flyers and Habs, with whom he won a Stanley Cup in 1993, Kevin Haller signed with an Islanders team “that’s on it’s way up” in 2000. The three-year deal didn’t work out and a groin injury cost him most of his first season with the club. He only managed one game the next season before being put on the shelf with abdominal issues.
Whether Islander or Whaler, Kevin Haller also hated Mark Messier. A true hero.
We’re always open to suggestions about other Weird Islanders to discuss. Remember the criteria. Candidates must fulfill one of the two of the following:
Played one (1) season or less for the Islanders or very short stints over multiple seasons.
Be a veteran NHLer who is not generally associated with his time on Islanders.
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CLEVELAND, OH - APRIL 28: Daniel Schneemann #10 of the Cleveland Guardians looks on prior to the game between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on Tuesday, April 28, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Grace Hoppel/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Schneemann means “Snowman” in German and “Making Himself a Must-Play Hitter” in Cleveland Guardian.
Coming into 2026, it would surprise almost no one to hear Daniel Schneemann made the Opening Day roster. Despite entering the season with a career wRC+ of 84, Schnee was a good, if not great, defender at virtually every position on the field. This defensive flexibility more than makes up for the lower than average offensive production and allows him to almost perfectly fill the role of an everyday bottom of the line up utility player. What might be surprising for almost everyone is that through the Guardians first 32 games so far in 2026, Daniel Schneemann has been by a very wide margin the team’s most productive hitter, with a 167 wRC+ so far in 2026. The question we’re going to look at today is whether or not this offensive production is sustainable, or if this is just a blazing start to 2026.
I should start off by saying we are still very early in the season, and we’re going to be analyzing a very small sample size of plate appearances (87 to be exact), but there’s still a lot of data to look at and a lot of conclusions we can draw. The first number to look at is Schnee’s wOBA vs xwOBA, and as it stands currently, he’s outperforming his xwOBA by about .048. This is a pretty big outperformance, and as of writing sits at the 18th “luckiest” hitter per Savant. The positive side is looking strictly at his xwOBA of .369, which is still top ~80th percentile in MLB, ranking him 56 out of 273 qualified MLB hitters. The only two hitters with a better xwOBA on the Guardians are unsurprisingly José Ramírez and Chase DeLauter.
The set of data we want to look at next involves metrics that have high correlation with better quality of contact. If you’ve been listening to player and coach interviews, or the broadcast commentary, you’re probably aware that Schnee spent the offseason trying to build more muscle. Now it’s not wholly a 1 to 1 comparison, as there are a lot of other factors that contribute, but we can see this in the data a little bit, as his average bat speed is up from around 70.8 over his first 2 seasons to 71.5 in 2026, and he’s gotten his average exit velo up from around 88.8 to 90mph in 2026. Schnee has also gotten exceptionally efficient at getting this now harder contact into more optimal launch angles. The overwhelming majority of extra base hits come from batted balls in the 8-32 degree launch angle window. Statcast uses LA SS% (Launch Angle Sweet-Spot %) to denote the percentage of in-play batted balls that fall into this optimal launch angle window. Schnee is hitting this window on a staggering 46.2% of his batted balls. That percentage ranks him 7th out of 273 qualified MLB hitters on Savant. This is exactly what you want to do to be able to more consistently get extra base hits.
A lot of you may be sensing a “but” coming, and unfortunately your instincts are good. While everything we’ve talked about before is incredible, when we want to talk about sustainability, there’s a few big factors we haven’t looked at yet. The biggest one is Chase%. One of the most important aspects of hitting is making good swing decisions. Right now Schnee’s Chase% is up from 25.8 in 2025 to 35.1 in 2026. And his Whiff% is up from 29.6 in 2025 to 36 in 2026. How concerning is this? Well, on the surface the answer would be “Very concerning.” That Whiff% is in the bottom 5 percentile on Savant, and the Chase% is bottom 19 percentile.
A very high Chase% combined with high Whiff% is a very bad combination for hitters in general, and this is likely where we will get our answer of “is this sustainable for Schnee?” The obvious adjustment from the league is to throw more pitches out of the zone to try to get him to expand his zone and get himself out. The silver lining is that Schnee’s BB% and K% are pretty much in line with his career averages thus far. So it’s not a total panic yet.
If we were to profile 2026 Daniel Schneemann so far, he’d be considered a high risk, high reward, power- driven hitter. If he starts seeing more pitches out of the zone but is able to resist chasing more than he is now, and if we assume some regression to reel back in some of the batted ball luck so far, there’s no reason to think he can’t continue as a very solid 110-120 wRC+ super utility man. The batted ball metrics are great, the plate discipline is concerning – right now they balance out nicely to equal a phenomenal baseball player all around, especially considering above average defensive capabilities at many positions.
It’ll be very exciting to see how the month of May goes for Schnee, as we start to see if the League begins to approach him differently. Let it snow, Daniel, and keep playing your heart out.
The Lake Elsinore Storm became the first minor league affiliate to sweep a series this season and now have a winning record going into a tie for first in their division. The Low-A team, boasting many of the 2025 draftees of the Padres, has had many surprise players surge in the last couple of weeks. Two undrafted free agents join a couple of the top-rated draft prospects to form the nucleus of an offense that has heated up for the Storm.
Both starter Griffin Canning and reliever Yuki Matsui are reaching the ends of their rehab windows and will be joining the San Diego Padres soon. Canning should be fully built up and must be activated by Monday. Matsui has pitched in back-to-back games and has completed a two-inning appearance. He will join the Padres by this weekend.
Sung-Mun Song was the 27th man for the Mexico City Series but returned to El Paso after debuting with the Padres as a pinch runner. A brief glance at his numbers would make many wonder why he has not been brought up to the major league team. A little deeper look shows major concerns with barrel and hard-hit rates. He has almost no slug, has not stolen a base and has an alarming K-rate.
El Paso Chihuahuas (12-15 record with a 4-2 record in their last series, 3rd in Pacific Coast League East)
Outfielder Samad Taylor leads the team with a .325 average; infielder Pablo Reyes has a .438 OBP while outfielder Jase Bowen is tops in both slug .625 and OPS .968 and has seven homers. Infielder Jose Miranda leads with 18 RBI. The depth of the talent sitting in Triple-A is reassuring if reinforcements are needed for the Friars. The only real concern is that Bowen has 28 strikeouts in his 96 at-bats, a 29% K-rate.
RHP Evan Fitterer has started four games out of the six games he has appeared in and has a 1.23 ERA in the 14.2 innings pitched. Reliever Garrett Hawkins, who is on the 40-man roster, has a 2.08 ERA in 8.2 innings pitched. Griffin Canning has had four appearances (fifth should be in the books on Tuesday) with a 5,40 ERA in 10 innings.
San Antonio Missions (5-16 record that makes them last in Texas League South)
The Double-A Missions are having a difficult time so far this season but there is a big bright spot for Padres fans. Catcher Ethan Salas is heating up of late and is leading the team in OPS at .859 and slug at.481 and that includes two homers.
1B/DH Leandro Cedeno has only played in 10 games but is hitting .333 with a .415 OBP. Infielder Carson Tucker continues to hit, batting .317 in 13 games and has four stolen bases without being caught. He has an .806 OPS and .391 OBP.
Starter Miguel Mendez is on the 40-man roster and has started four games with a 3.68 ERA in 14.2 innings but had a rough start his last time out. Reliever Andrew Moore has a 1.29 ERA in five games and 7.2 innings and Eric Yost, who has made one start in his four games, has a 1.32 ERA in 17.2 innings.
Fort Wayne TinCaps (7-14 record, last in Midwest League East)
Outfielder Jake Cunningham, 23, who signed with the Padres as a minor league free agent in February, has had a good start for his new organization and their High-A affiliate. He leads the team with a .321 average, a .607 slug and a .965 OPS. He has hit four homers and has seven RBI. Outfielder Kasen Wells has a team leading .384 OBP with 14 walks and a .266 average. He also leads the team with three stolen bases. Outfielder Alex McCoy is continuing to show he can be an all-around player with a .324 average, four home runs and 12 RBI.
Starter Carson Montgomery has three starts and a 3.00 ERA in 12 innings. Starter Andrew Parra has a 3.12 ERA in four games with 17.1 innings pitched. LHP Kash Mayfield has four starts and a 1.65 ERA in 16 innings pitched with 19 strikeouts and could be pushing the organization into an early promotion.
Reliever Clay Edmondson has a 1.04 ERA in 8.2 innings pitched and two saves.
Both offense and pitching has struggled so far this season for the TinCaps with the above exceptions noted.
Lake Elsinore Storm (12-9 record, swept the Visalia Rawhides 6-0, 1st, in a tie, in California League South)
The Low-A Storm got off to a slow start but several players are surging to push them into their winning ways. Infielder Bradley Frye is hitting .419 with a .621 slug and a 1.083 OPS with 17 RBI. Outfielder Connor Westenburg, the other undrafted free agent with Frye, is hitting .371 with a .935 OPS and has 13 RBI and 13 stolen bases.
Outfielder Ryan Wideman, the Padres No. 9 prospect, will shoot up the prospect rankings if he keeps this up. Wideman is hitting .299/.404/.529 for a .933 OPS. He has seven doubles, two triples, three home runs and 20 RBI with 17 stolen bases in 21 attempts. He also has 11 walks to 18 strikeouts while playing an excellent center field. Coming into the season, the concern was his hitting mechanics and whether he could adapt to higher velocity and spin. He chased out of the zone and there were questions about his ability to be selective. So far, he has altered his mechanics and seems to be adjusting well. He has plus-plus speed and a good arm with good defensive range.
Catcher Victor Duarte leads the team with a .490 OBP, collecting a team high 13 walks. He can also play first base and is in his fourth season with Lake Elsinore but has never played more than 54 games in a season.
Unfortunately, the Storm has lost outfielder Kale Fountain for the season with a shoulder injury requiring season ending surgery. He had a collision with an outfield wall.
Carlos Medina has pitched in six games and has started two games. He has 16 innings with a 2.25 ERA and 16 strikeouts. Winyer Chourio has a 2.25 ERA in four games/three starts over 12 innings pitched and 26 strikeouts. Bryan Balzer has 19 strikeouts over 18 innings pitched and four games started. One difficult outing upped his ERA to 4.50.
Reliever Javier Chacon has a 1.80 ERA in 15 innings with 21 strikeouts. Ethan Long has a 1.35 ERA in six games and 6.2 innings with three saves. Nick Falter has a 1.98 ERA in 13.2 innings in seven appearances with 14 strikeouts.
Jeremiah Estrada made one rehab appearance with Lake Elsinore, pitching one inning with a strikeout. The most encouraging sign was that his pitches were back up to his normal velocity and he allowed no hits. He should resume his rehab with El Paso.
New Padre Lucas Giolito made his first start and went 2.2 innings but was removed after a comebacker hit his pitching hand. He allowed two runs and two hits with three walks and reached 63 pitches. He must be added to the Padres roster by May 16.
Injuries
Miguel Mendez was placed on the IL with a neck strain after his last start. It is not likely to be a long stint. Luis Gutierrez was placed on the 60-day IL with a lat strain. Omar Cruz was sent to San Antonio to fill in for the injured pitchers.
Qrey Lott, an undrafted free agent sign, was added to Lake Elsinore to replace Fountain.
ARLINGTON, TEXAS - APRIL 28: Josh Jung #6 of the Texas Rangers hits a runs scoring single against the New York Yankees during the ninth inning at Globe Life Field on April 28, 2026 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Texas Rangers are 31 games into the 2026 season, and having closed the book on the month of April,* I think it is a worthwhile time to take a look at how the Rangers hitters have fared so far.
* Idiomatically, when we discuss the month of April in regards to the MLB regular season, we also include the few days when games are played in March. Similarly, when we talk about September, we also mean any regular season games in October. Baseball language is weird sometimes.
Big picture-wise, there is once again a fair-sized split in our Fangraphs measures the team’s offense and how Baseball Reference does. Fangraphs has the Rangers, as a team, with a wRC+ of 95, which is tied for 21st in the majors. B-R has the Rangers’ team OPS+ at 105, which is 9th in the majors.* If you average the two out you’d end up at 100, which is, by definition, league average. So you can say that the Rangers’ offense has been above average, average, or below average so far this season, depending on how you want to measure things.
* As a reminder, the split between FG and B-R is mainly due to the difference in park factors they apply to the Shed. B-R’s park factors have the Shed has extremely pitcher-friendly for its 2026 calculations, while FG has the Shed as more neutral.
One thing to also keep in mind is that the Rangers have played a very difficult schedule in the early going. So far in 2026, the Rangers have, per Power Rankings Guru, played the most difficult schedule on MLB.* ESPN has the Rangers playing the third-toughest schedule so far this season. 25 of the team’s 31 games have come against teams with a 110 ERA+ this season or better, with the other six coming against Baltimore (101 ERA+) and the Phillies (91 ERA+).
* The flip side of the difficult early schedule is that they show the Rangers as having the second-easiest schedule the rest of the way.
Below is a chart with each player’s xwOBA, wOBA, and the difference between the two numbers. All data is from Statcast.
That is…not really surprising, for the most part? Brandon Nimmo and Josh Jung are raking. Jung appears to benefitting from a little bit of good fortune, though his xwOBA is still barely behind Nimmo for second on the team among those with significant playing time.
Corey Seager is not off to a great start, even considering his xwOBA is 20 points higher than his wOBA. His biggest issue right now is that his K rate has spiked — he’s striking out over 25% of the time, compared to an 18.1% career K rate. Evan Carter’s expected numbers are also about 20 points higher than his actual wOBA.
What really jumps out to me here is the dichotomy between Josh Smith and Ezequiel Duran. Smith has gotten off to an awful start to the season, while Duran has been putting up great numbers — Duran’s wOBA is almost 100 points higher than Smith’s so far this season.
In terms of xwOBA, however, Smith has actually out-performed Duran by 11 points. Smith’s wOBA is almost 50 points below his xwOBA, while Duran’s xwOBA trails his wOBA by almost 60 points.
Looking a little closer at their numbers, Duran is striking out more often than Smith (20% to 18.4%), while Smith has a 13.3% walk rate compared to Duran’s 9.2% walk rate. Fangraphs has their line drive rates as being almost identical, and has Smith with a hard hit rate higher than Duran.
Despite that, Duran has a .356 BABIP and .136 ISO, compared to a .242 BABIP and .024 ISO for Smith.
There’s been talk about Duran possibly eating into some of Smith’s playing time at second base, due to Duran’s hot start and Smith’s early struggles. When we drill down on their underlying metrics, though, Duran’s case for more playing time weakens.
The bottom two Rangers in terms of both wOBA and xwOBA are Andrew McCutchen and Sam Haggerty, two guys who are here as short-side platoon bats. This certainly helps explain why the Rangers have had so many issues against lefthanded starting pitchers this year.
Miguel Vargas
Jesus Sanchez
Hunter Goodman
Desmond Bane
Collin Murray-Boyles 
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COVERS INTEL: Mitch 
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