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What more can be said about a game where your starting pitcher has the worst start of his career and the bullpen made things worse?

The reasonable answer to that question is, “Not much,” but you come here for a game recap and so, you will get one for the Cubs’ terrible, horrible, no good, very bad 13-7 loss to the Phillies Monday night in Philadelphia.

You kind of knew things weren’t going the Cubs’ way when Kyle Schwarber homered in the first inning. Another Phillies run crossed the plate in the second, and then Schwarber homered again in the third, this time with Trea Turner on base.

The Cubs actually made the game sort of close in the fourth. Carson Kelly led off with a single and Dansby Swanson followed that with a home run [VIDEO].

That was Swanson’s second homer in as many days and it does appear he’s coming out of his season-starting slump. Now it’s 4-2 and, well, teams have come back from two-run deficits in the fourth inning.

Not this time. The Phillies scored five times in the fifth off Assad, this time without a home run involved, before Craig Counsell had mercy and replaced him with Jacob Webb. Webb actually got out of the fifth with no further runs scoring.

Just in case you didn’t have enough bad news about Assad, here’s more from BCB’s JohnW53:

Javier Assad is the first Cubs pitcher to allow at least nine runs in a game since reliever Ryan Pressly’s nine-run, no-out meltdown at home against the Giants on May 6 of last year. The previous starter who did that was Hayden Wesneski, who gave up 11 runs in 4.0 innings at St. Louis on July 13, 2024. Shōta Imanaga had given up 10 in 3.0 at home against the Mets on June 21, 2024. Those were the only three before Monday’s game since June 3, 2022, when Marcus Stroman gave up 10 in 4.0 at home against the Cardinals.

Just-recalled Charlie Barnes entered the game in the sixth. I’ll spare you the details of the carnage, but when the inning was over the Phillies had three more runs and a 12-2 lead, and they plated another one off Barnes in the seventh.

The game was entering “position player pitcher” territory at that point, but the Cubs decided to get the bats out in the eighth. Ian Happ led off with a double and scored on this single by Moisés Ballesteros [VIDEO].

Swanson then walked and Miguel Amaya was hit by a pitch, loading the bases with nobody out. Pete Crow-Armstrong singled, with two runs scoring, one on an error [VIDEO].

Matt Shaw then reached on an error, with Amaya scoring [VIDEO].

Two outs later, Seiya Suzuki singled in PCA [VIDEO].

Well. Now it’s 13-7 and that forced the Phillies to call on one of their leverage relievers, Orion Kerkering. Ian Happ was the next batter. If, somehow, Happ could have gone deep, the game would actually have become close but… Happ looked at three pitches from Kerkering and struck out.

And that was basically it. Besides the pitching issues in this game, the Cubs once again had tons of baserunners who were stranded. They left 10 runners on base and went 4-for-16 with RISP. Not that this excuses the pitching, but now the Cubs have gone 7-for-51 (.137) with RISP over their last four games and left 47 runners on base, an average of 12 LOB per game. And that includes Kelly’s game-winning single on Sunday. Yikes.

So there are multiple issues that need to be addressed, and soon. Barnes wound up throwing the final three innings, so all the Cubs’ leverage relievers got the night off (save Webb, who threw only eight pitches). That’s about the only positive I can take out of this one.

The Cubs will look to even up the series Tuesday evening in Philadelphia. The original schedule had Colin Rea listed as Tuesday’s starter, but after Monday’s game the Cubs announced that Riley Martin would start, presumably as an opener, with Rea following. Aaron Nola will start for the Phillies. Game time is again 5:40 p.m. CT and TV coverage will be via Marquee Sports Network.

For the most part, the Phillies bullpen has been a strength so far this season. There’s been some bad luck involved, but overall, the unit looks strong. One major exception however is José Alvarado. 

Following Sunday’s ineffective performance, Alvarado has now allowed 8 runs, 7 earned, in 5 innings pitched on 9 hits with 7 strikeouts to 3 walks. He too has run into some bad luck, as he’s sporting a whopping .563 BABIP, an impressive level of early batted ball misfortune. But, that doesn’t entirely erase the fact that Alvarado just hasn’t looked good so far. 

Alvarado’s velocity has been good, clocking in right around his career average at an average of 98 MPH. But he’s struggled to throw strikes, as only 40% of his pitches have been inside the zone. That is a far drop off from his abbreviated 2025 (50.3%) or even his 2024 (47.6%). In fact, that 40% zone rate is well below Alvarado’s already low 47.5% rate for his career. Of course, he’s only made eight appearances on the young 2026 season, but it is something to monitor. 

Curiously, despite the lack of pitches in the zone, Alvarado is actually getting a healthy dose of swings and misses. His 30.2% whiff rate is in line with his career average of 31.3% and is way up from 2025 where his swing and miss rate was a career low 24.3%. 

It is only eight appearances, so the book is far from written on Alvarado’s 2026, but the poor performance is a trend that dates back to his return from suspension last season. In 16 total appearances since being reinstated on August 19th, Alvarado has a 9.82 ERA in 11 innings pitched with 14 strikeouts to 6 walks. Opponents are hitting .340 with a .968 OPS against him over that span. The numbers are even worse in the eight appearances after Alvarado returned from the injured list on September 29th, with a 12.60 ERA and an opposing hitters batting line of .391/.481/.391

It’s still early in 2026, so there’s plenty of time for Alvarado to turn it around. But this is a trend of subpar performance that dates back to last season. The Phillies have two other effective lefties in the bullpen with Tanner Banks and the surprising Tim Mayza, but neither of them posses the raw stuff and strikeout ability that Alvarado has. The team needs him to be able to be an effective setup man and to be the top lefty reliever behind righties Jhoan Duran and Brad Keller. So, do the Phillies have a José Alvarado problem? 

In many ways, the main goal of the Orioles’ 2026 season was not to repeat the 2025 season. Through the first 16 games of the season, the O’s have certainly been more competitive than they were to begin last season. However, one unfortunate aspect of 2025 that has followed the Orioles into 2026 is the mountain of injuries.

The Orioles currently have a major-league-leading 13 players on the IL. After a weekend that saw Adley Rutschman land on the 10-day IL with an ankle injury and Ryan Mountcastle head to the 60-day IL with a broken foot, the offense is now especially reeling.

With the injuries piled on top of the early-season struggles of Pete Alonso and Samuel Basallo, the offense has been in desperate need of unexpected heroes. That’s where Taylor Ward and Leody Taveras come in.

The fact that Ward is a big-time contributor is not exactly a surprise. Behind Alonso, Ward was seen as the second biggest offseason addition for the Orioles’ offense. However, when the O’s acquired the 32-year-old outfielder from the Angels, he was expected to be a power-first bat in the mold of Alonso. Instead, he’s turned into an on-base machine who’s wearing out the power alleys.

After last night’s matchup with the Diamondbacks, Ward is 11th in MLB with a .339 average, tied for 7th with 21 total hits and leads MLB with 10 doubles. After hitting a career-high 32 home runs last year, he’s yet to launch his first homer in black and orange. However, he’s more than made up for his lack of over the fence with a more disciplined approach at the plate and a willingness to spray the ball to all fields.

Unlike Alonso, Basallo and Gunnar Henderson, Ward is not blessed with elite bat speed and the ability to consistently generate high exit velocity. Even in hitting 32 long balls last year, his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate were right around league average, while his bat speed only ranked in the 15th percentile. What’s been elite throughout 2025 and 2026 is Ward’s ability to square up pitches and his unwillingness to chase pitches outside of the zone.

What’s helped transform Ward into a different offensive force is a focus on swinging for line drives instead of deep fly balls. The outfielder’s career line-drive percentage is around 26%; this year, that number has jumped up to 39.1%, the 5th-best mark in all of baseball. We’ve also seen his opposite-field hit percentage jump from 27.1% last year to a career-best 32.6% so far this year. Ward’s willingness to hit the ball to where he’s being pitched has led to a 47.8% Launch-Angle Sweet Spot rate, putting him in the 96th percentile this season.

Ward’s early-season breakout is reminiscent of the hot start we saw from former Oriole Ryan O’Hearn to begin last year. Through 16 games, Ward is currently slashing .333/.427/.492. Through 16 games last year, Turn and Burn was .296/.377/.519—which turned into a first-half OPS of .834 and an All-Star berth.

Coming into last season, most would’ve ranked O’Hearn behind the likes of Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman and Jordan Westburg in terms of expected offensive impact. Similarly, Ward was probably seen as the fourth most important Baltimore bat heading into this season, behind Henderson, Alonso and a healthy Rutschman. Instead, the newly acquired outfielder has catapulted himself to the top of the pecking order as the O’s most productive hitter so far.

However, the mountain of injuries has meant that Baltimore once again needed someone previously seen as a depth piece to rise to the occasion. Last year, that came in the form of Ramón Laureano; this year, we’re seeing that same level of contribution from Leody Taveras.

Taveras came to the Orioles this past offseason out of necessity. With Colton Cowser set to be the Opening Day CF, and no other natural CF on the roster, the front office brought in Taveras to provide a defensive insurance policy in the outfield. However, Cowser’s continued struggles against off-speed pitches and the recent injury to Tyler O’Neill have thrust the 27-year-old Dominican into more of an everyday role.

To say the former Texas Ranger has taken that opportunity and run with it would be an understatement. In 12 games this season, Taveras is 9-for-25 with three doubles, four runs scored and five walks. If he had enough at-bats to qualify, his .467 OBP would lead the Orioles and place fourth in all of baseball. In the last three games, we’ve seen manager Craig Albernaz stick Taveras in the sixth spot in the order, allowing him to serve as a secondary table setter for the bottom of the lineup.

Should Taveras continue to hit well, the uncertain nature of the Orioles outfield means he’ll have plenty of opportunities to lock down the CF role. Cowser’s inability to hit changeups may ultimately force him down the pecking order as the season goes on, and players get healthy (he was hitting .167 on off-speed pitches with a 46.4% whiff rate heading into Monday).

If Cowser can’t iron out the holes in his game (or if O’Neill continues to struggle to stay healthy), it would allow Taveras to make a Laureano-like jump from fourth outfielder to invaluable starter. And while Taveras and Laureano do not offer the same offensive profiles—with the former a switch-hitting line-drive machine and the latter a right-hander power bat—they both provide(d) a similar ability to outshine expectations and strengthen a shaky Orioles outfield.

Even with the injuries and slow starts, there’s still plenty of hope that this collection of Baltimore bats can produce an upper-echelon offense. And while Gunnar has been awesome so far, and the Polar Bear is getting back to his normal ways, the plus contributions from Ward and Taveras are a big part of why the O’s sit atop the AL East after the first 10% of the season.

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The St. Louis Cardinals look to even their series when they host the Cleveland Guardians tonight at Busch Stadium.

Cleveland starter Joey Cantillo has command issues, and my Guardians vs. Cardinals predictions expect St. Louis to come out on top. 

Read on for my MLB picks for Tuesday, April 14. 

Who will win Guardians vs Cardinals today: Cardinals moneyline (+105)

Michael McGreevy's underlying metrics aren't pretty, but he doesn't need to be dominant tonight. 

He just needs to survive long enough for the St. Louis Cardinals to make Cleveland Guardians starter Joey Cantillo pay.

Cantillo walks over four batters per nine with a 45% fly ball rate, and that’s a dangerous combination for a lefty on a warm night with gusty winds blowing out to left. 

Cleveland's bullpen is surrendering 1.61 home runs per nine, and while their bats boomed last night, the Guardians average a shade under four runs per night.

Back the home dog tonight. 

COVERS INTEL:Joey Cantillo is surrendering a .361 slugging percentage and .342 wOBA against right-handed hitters this season. 

Guardians vs Cardinals Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (+100)

Neither bullpen can consistently get anyone out, and that's a problem against two lineups that rank seventh and eighth in expected offensive production despite sitting outside the Top 15 in actual results.

McGreevy's underlying metrics suggest Cleveland will score, while Cantillo's command issues against a right-handed heavy Cardinals lineup and gusty winds blowing out mean a few free passes could turn into a run explosion in a hurry.

Cleveland's bullpen is surrendering 1.61 home runs per nine. The Cardinals' pen can't miss bats. Play the Over. 

Guardians vs Cardinals odds

• Moneyline: Guardians -104 | Cardinals -104
• Run line: Guardians -1.5 (+133) | Cardinals +1.5 (-186)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-117) | Under 8.5 (-117)

Guardians vs Cardinals trend

The Over is 4-1 in Cleveland’s previous five games. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Cardinals.

How to watch Guardians vs Cardinals and game info

Guardians vs Cardinals latest injuries

Guardians vs Cardinals weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Rangers 8, A’s 1

• That was a good ‘un.
• Shades of 2023, in fact. Nathan Eovaldi doing work, the bats battering, the late innings being low stress because the Rangers’ lead is so large.
• After the first two games of the season, where Eovaldi failed to go five innings in either game and allowed 11 runs, rumblings began as to whether Eovaldi still had it, if age was catching up with the 36 year old. The five run outing in the season opener was an instance where he pitched better than the line score reflected, but his second outing was inherently unpleasant.
• Last time out, Eovaldi picked up a win and a Quality Start with a six inning, two run outing, quieting the criticism a bit.
• And then in this game, in a hitter friendly minor league park, against an OaklandSacramentoLas Vegas A’s team that has a number of potent bats, Eovaldi cruised. He didn’t allow a base runner until Max Muncy (that funky Muncy) singled to lead off the third, then promptly generated a GIDP to erase him. The A’s put runners on first and second in both the fifth and sixth, with a single and a reversed on replay HBP in the former and a pair of walks in the latter, but Eovaldi kept them off the board.
• Eovaldi looked early on like he might be in line for a complete game, given how efficient he was — he needed just 29 pitches through three — and probably could have gone back out for the eighth had the Rangers not put a bunch of runs on the board in the top of the inning and made it a blowout.
• 13 swings and misses generated by Eovaldi, seven of them on the splitter, which he, as per usual, leaned on heavily, throwing it 32 times.
• Luis Curvelo came into the game for the eighth did his job, which was to throw strikes, move things along, and keep things from getting interesting. Curvelo needed just 19 pitches to get through eight batters over two innings. Lawrence Butler homered off of him, spoiling the shutout, so we could get made about that if we were feeling churlish.
• Which we are not.
• Offensively, Jake Burger put the Rangers up four batters into the game, clubbing a three run homer off of Luis Severino after Severino had issued one out walks to Corey Seager and Evan Carter. It looked like the Rangers might be able to chase Severino early when Joc Pederson and Kyle Higashioka each singled after the Burger homer, but a Josh Smith backwards K and a Josh Jung 5-3 put those hopes on ice.
• Severino ended up going six and allowed just one more run, on another home run from Burger, who does not seem to have a lot in common with Jason Botts.
• Texas put up a four spot in the eighth to blow it open, all of the runs coming off of A’s reliever Jack Perkins, who sounds like the hero in a series of 1930s stories about a high schooler who excels in every sport and takes his girlfriend Mary Jane to the malt shop after his heroics are over. Josh Smith, trying to shake out of a season-opening slump, singled in a pair of runs, and Josh Jung, who is shaking off a season-opening slump, doubled in the other two.
• Ironically, Brandon Nimmo, who has been the Rangers’ best hitter so far in the young season, was the only Ranger not to get on base. Evan Carter was the only other Ranger who came to the plate not to get a hit, though he drew a walk.
• While the top three guys have been fueling the Rangers’ offense most of the season, it was the middle part of the lineup — which too often has been a soft underbelly of the lineup — that was especially productive. Aside from Burger’s two homer-one walk game, Joc Pederson had three hits — his first three hit game as a Ranger — and Kyle Higashioka, in the sixth spot, picked up a pair of singles and a walk.
• It was a very fine performance, one that makes staying up late on a week night well worth it.
• Nathan Eovaldi’s fastball maxed out at 96.1 mph, averaging 94.1 mph. Luis Curvelo topped out at 95.4 mph with his fastball.
• Jake Burger’s home runs were 113.6 mph and 104.2 mph. Joc Pederson had a 105.9 mph single and a 101.2 mph single. Ezequiel Duran had a 105.3 mph single. Kyle Higashioka hit into a GIDP that was 103.4 mph. Josh Jung and Corey Seager each had a 100.5 mph double.
• Texas is now .500 on the road trip, with six games to go.

The Mets continue a three-game series against the Dodgers in Los Angeles on Tuesday night at 10:10 on SNY.

Here's what to know about the game and how to watch...

Mets Notes

• Nolan McLean has a 2.70 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in 16.2 innings over three starts this season. He is allowing just 4.3 hits per nine 
• The Mets have scored nine runs during their six-game losing streak
• Francisco Lindor, who has 79 plate appearances this season, has yet to record an RBI
• Carson Benge has reached base safely in five of his last six games
• Due in part to the Mets' six-game losing streak, Devin Williams hasn't pitched since last Tuesday

Today's Lineups

What channel is SNY?

Check your TV or streaming provider's website or channel finder to find your local listings.

How can I stream the game?

The way to stream SNY games is via the MLB App or MLB.tv.

In order to stream games in SNY’s regional territory, you will need to have SNY as part of your TV package (cable or streaming), or you can now purchase an in-market SNY subscription package via MLB or Amazon. Both ways will allow fans to watch the Mets on their computer, tablet or mobile phone.

How can I watch the game on my computer via MLB?

To get started on your computer, click here and then follow these steps:

• Log in using your provider credentials. If you are unsure of your provider credentials, please contact your provider.

• Link your provider credentials with a new or existing MLB.com account.

• Log in using your MLB.com credentials to watch Mets games on SNY.

• Select the SNY Mets game you wish to view from the Multimedia Center.

How can I watch the game on the MLB App?

MLB App access is included for FREE with SNY. To access SNY on your favorite supported Apple or Android mobile device, please follow the steps below.

• Download the free MLB App.

• Open “MLB” and tap on “Subscriber Login” for Apple Devices or “Sign in with MLB.com” for Android Devices.

• Type in your MLB.com credentials and tap “Log In.” 

• To access live or on-demand content, tap on the "Watch" tab from the bottom navigation bar. Select the "Games" sub-tab to see a listing of available games. You can scroll to previous dates using the left and right arrows. Tap on a game to select from the game feeds available. 

For more information on how to stream Mets games on SNY, please click here.

Meet the Mets

Dodgers’ starter Justin Wrobleski set down the first 13 Mets hitters and faced the minimum through seven, as New York lost their sixth straight by a 4-0 score to the Dodgers. Wrobleski ended up hurling eight shutout frames. The Mets managed just three hits as their scoreless streak extended to 20 innings, with the team continuing to struggle to score runs without their best bat in the lineup. David Peterson allowed four runs over five innings of work in the loss.

Choose Your Recap: Amazin’ Avenue, MLB.com, NY Post, Newsday, ESPN

The Mets called up Tommy Pham and optioned Ronny Mauricio to Triple-A.

Laura Albanese believes Tommy Pham’s fire can help the team against the Dodgers, though it did not help them much last night.

Chelsea Janes explained why the Mets must prove that this slow start is just an aberration, even if much of the roster is different from the one that collapsed last season.

This series between the Mets and Dodgers is a showcase of big money in MLB as the teams with the two largest payrolls in the sport collide.

Katie Woo and Will Sammon examined how the Dodgers swooped in and stole Edwin Díaz from the Mets.

Los Angeles seems to be concerned about their closer’s velocity, and Díaz may not pitch against his old club this series.

Between Díaz this week and Jeff McNeil last weekend, GM David Stearns has been getting visits from the ghosts of Mets past, writes David Lennon.

Scouts seem to believe Bo Bichette is not fully healthy and believe it’s related to the PCL sprain in his left knee that he suffered last September.

On the Juan Soto injury front, the team is still saying he will return in the 2-3 week timeframe, but he has not yet begun a running program. He will undergo an MRI if things don’t advance.

Clay Holmes, meanwhile, is good to go for his Wednesday start after throwing a bullpen with no issues.

The Mets say a turnaround is coming, but Anthony DiComo wondered if they can make it happen.

Devin Williams and Luke Weaver are bullpen buddies, explains Laura Albanese.

Mike Vaccaro wrote about how Darryl Strawberry helped save Lenny Dykstra from a drug-fueled rock bottom.

Around the National League East

Alec Bohm has fired Scott Boras and is seeking money from his parents in the amount of over $500K amid a legal battle.

Behind a pair of Kyle Schwarber home runs, the Phillies beat up the Cubs 13-7.

The Marlins toppled the Braves 10-4.

The Nationals were embarrassed 16-5 by the the Pirates.

Around Major League Baseball

There’s a surprise newcomer in the Top 5 of the MLB Power Rankings.

Will Leitch looked at some of the players who are most likely to win their first MVP award this year.

AJ Cassavell explained why Fernando Tatis Jr. at second base makes sense.

The Blue Jays acquired infielder Lenyn Sosa from the White Sox.

On Paul Skenes day, the Pirates put up a 10-run inning to give their ace some run support against Washington.

The slumping Astros have placed Jeremy Peña and Tatsuya Imai on the injured list and optioned Jayden Murray to Triple-A. J.P. France, Colton Gordon and Shay Whitcomb were recalled to take their place on the roster.

The Mariners handed the Astros their eighth straight loss with a 6-2 win. In the victory, Josh Naylor ended his home run draught as he hit dingers in back-to-back at-bats.

Despite Jordan Walker hitting his major league-leading eighth home run, the Cardinals fell 9-3 to the Guardians.

The Orioles rallied from down six to upend the Diamondbacks 9-7. Pete Alonso belted the go-ahead home run, his second as a member of the O’s. Baltimore’s skipper Craig Albernaz was hit in the head by a foul ball during the game. In defeat, Marte and Rojas led the way for Arizona’s offense with two home runs apiece.

The Yankees walked off the Angels 11-10 in a bonkers game that saw Judge and Grisham combined for four home runs and eight runs batted in.

The Twins beat up the Red Sox 13-6.

The Rangers did what neither New York team could do over the last five days, beating the A’s 8-1.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

Brian Salvatore previewed the team’s series against the Dodgers.

Linus Lawrence provided a Monday Stat Party.

This Date in Mets History

Jerry Koosman made his major league debut on this date in 1967, two days after Tom Seaver’s big league debut. One year later, Nolan Ryan picked up his first career win as a member of the Mets.

Well, considering the extent of Parker Meadows injuries after his collision with Riley Greene last week, this isn’t surprising. The Tigers on Monday moved the center fielder to the 60-day injured list with a fractured left arm as well as a concussion. The initial impact looked like Meadows, trying to veer away from Greene, who was camped under a Josh Bell fly ball, collided jaw to the back of Greene’s head. Meadows was clearly rocked immediately and couldn’t protect himself going to the ground where he fell on the left arm, fracturing the radius bone, and also hit his head hard against the turf. Hopefully he’ll make a full recovery, but for now he’s out until mid-June. Even when he does return, he’s going to need some rehab work in Toledo before returning to the Tigers.

The move opened up a 40-man roster spot, and the Tigers used that to claim 23-year-old right-hander Yoniel Curet, who was designated for assignment by the Phillies last week. It wasn’t long ago that Curet was a pretty well regarded pitching prospect for the Rays with a huge sinker and good breaking stuff. They finally DFA’d him in December and the Phillies traded for him, but they needed a spot to add outfield depth, and the Tigers took advantage.

The appeal here is good stuff in a pitcher with an option remaining. The Tigers have some interesting arms in the upper minors, but most of them are either veteran relievers with solid stuff who have failed to find enough command, or pitchers on the injured list. Meanwhile, two of their best arms, RHP Jackson Jobe and RHP Troy Melton are still on the shelf as Jobe rehabs from Tommy John surgery with a late summer timetable, and Melton is slowly building up after elbow inflammation back in spring camp. Really only RHP Ricky Vanasco has been really impressive in the early going for the Triple-A Toledo Mud Hens.

Curet has a big sinker that at his best has topped out at 97-98 mph. However, he’s battled shoulder injuries each of the past two seasons and was more 95-96 mph in spring camp. He has a good cutter and at times has flashed a plus changeup as well. He’s piled up the strikeouts in the minor leagues, but has never gotten his control in order for very long. He’s a project arm for the Tigers, but one young enough and with the option remaining, to give them some time to work with him.

Curet was assigned to Lakeland, and as he has pitched since a few appearances in spring camp but not since the minor league season started, we’ll assume he’s still dealing with a minor injury. When and if the Tigers can get him right, he should be in Toledo with the Mud Hens.

Aroldis Chapman has been nearly perfect over his Red Sox tenure. He’s converted 35 of 37 save opportunities, registering a 1.22 ERA in that span. But Father Time is undefeated, Chapman has been prone to meltdowns, and I’m generally distrustful, so I’m waiting for the wheels to fall off.

Last week, against the Brewers, Chapman threw the slowest fastball of his Red Sox career at 90.8 mph. Since 2010, he’s thrown over 10,000 fastballs, earning a reputation as the premier flamethrower in baseball. The pitch last week was so much slower than his average fastball that it might have even functioned as a changeup, inducing a game-ending double play.

Chapman has been in the league since 2010. There aren’t many players left who debuted in 2010. At 38 years old, it’s fair to see 90 mph and wonder if he’s over the hill. I did some digging, some Excel work, consulted an oracle, and asked a Magic 8-Ball to determine what to look for to predict Chapman’s decline.

Pitcher’s arms are like weapons. Google “Aroldis Chapman gun” to learn more. In all seriousness, Chapman saves his bullets. Part of being healthy and effective for so long is knowing when to push it and when to take your foot off the gas. To use another metaphor, look at Lionel Messi. He spends a large portion of games walking, conserving energy, and surveying the field. When he needs to, he gets up to full speed in an instant and makes everyone else look like they’re playing a different game. While a pitcher can’t entirely take pitches off, they can pull back a bit when needed, especially early in the count.

Dating back to 2024, we saw a jump of about two miles per hour with his fastball when he gets to two strikes. He’s much more likely to see a swing with two strikes, and brings out his best stuff in those counts. That’s been the case throughout his career, but the magnitude of the effect has increased with age. Similarly, we can see his relative effort change with the score as well.

The effect here isn’t as significant, but it does exist. In a one-run game, Chapman throws his fastballs significantly harder than in a three-run game or when trailing. There isn’t much of a difference between tie games and two-run games, but if the winning or tying run is at least in the on-deck circle, Chapman brings it.

There’s more to it than just effort, as well. At least, it appears that way.

It typically takes Chapman about four pitches before he appears to be warm. When he throws a fastball for his first or second pitch of the outing, it averages about 97 mph. By the time he gets to his seventh pitch, the average velocity is up to 99 mph. As someone who owns a bachelor’s degree that includes a minor in applied math and statistics, I’ll admit this isn’t a 100% sound way to draw conclusions, but the correlation is there.

One potential issue is that the first and second pitches of an outing can never be a two-strike count, and we already saw that he turns it up with two strikes. By the time we’re five or so pitches into an at-bat, though, it could be virtually any count, given that the average plate appearance lasts about four pitches.

Regardless of how Chapman conserves his bullets, the velocity is going to fall off. Nobody can throw 100 mph forever. In actuality, if he does fall off a cliff, he’ll be very hurt. If his performance falls off a cliff, it’s likely due to his control.

There’s a pretty clear correlation here. When Chapman walks guys, things get ugly. When he’s in the zone, as he was last season when he posted a career low walk rate, he’s nearly unhittable.

Last season, he was in the zone about 54% of the time, his highest rate since 2016. In a small sample this season, he’s at a 52% zone rate. He allegedly got under control by learning to aim, which is such a hilarious revelation for a pitcher who’s been in the majors for 15 years that I have a hard time believing it. No matter what the reason for his improved control, a year and then some consistently is enough for me to believe it’s here to stay.

As I said, Father Time is undefeated, and nobody can throw 100 mph forever. Still, when looking at Chapman, pay more attention to the high-leverage, two-strike pitches to see if the top-end velocity is still there. If he needs an out and he’s only throwing 95 mph, it might be cause for concern. As for the 90 mph fastball, he said he was having trouble because of the cold. You probably already knew that, so if you’re still here, I appreciate you. Unless there’s an injury at play, and there doesn’t appear to be, the dip in velocity was likely just a blip. If you start to get worried about Chapman this season, make sure to give him a few pitches to warm up, and pay close attention to his control before you deem the sky falling.

The Ontario Tower Buzzers have their first-ever award winner, as Dodgers minor league right-hander Marlon Nieves was named California League pitcher of the week for the week of April 6-12.

Nieves last Tuesday struck out six in six scoreless innings in a road win over the Inland Empire 66ers in San Bernardino, the longest outing of his professional career.

Nieves last Tuesday against Inland Empire retired his first six batters faced, then allowed a walk in the third inning that was erased by a double play. He allowed a leadoff double in the fourth inning, but retired the next three batters and his final nine batters faced to complete his gem.

The 20-year-old right-hander faced only one batter over the minimum in the victory.

Signed out of the Dominican Republic in May 2023, Nieves made his Class-A debut last season with Rancho Cucamonga, putting up a 2.21 ERA in eight starts, with 37 strikeouts and 19 walks in 36 2/3 innings, with only one home run allowed.

Heading into this season, Nieves was ranked the Dodgers’ 12th-best prospect by FanGraphs, and was No. 24 in the system at Baseball America.

“Pitching is risky and there’s work to do ahead, both in terms of Nieves’ physical development and in the consistency of his execution. But there’s a pretty high ceiling here,” wrote Eric Longenhagen, Brendan Gawlowski, and James Fegan at FanGraphs. “Nieves has the physical traits and pitch shape characteristics to justify a mid-rotation future grade.”

Said Baseball America: “He has the upside of a rotation piece but will need to up his command and control in a big way to reach that ceiling.”

Nieves is the second award-winning Dodgers minor leaguer this season, after Triple-A Oklahoma City first baseman/outfielder James Tibbs III winning Pacific Coast League player of the week for March 30-April 5.