MLB Notebook: Walks are the highest they've been this century, Pirates are surging, and more

Welcome to a new column I'm doing this season, where I take a bi-weekly look around Major League Baseball to fill you in on the league-wide trends, surging teams, and top individual performances. There will be some highlight clips, some criticisms, and some personal analysis of where I think the game is at and/or going. I hope that, if you've had a busy week or haven't been able to watch as many games as you'd like, this article can be a great way to keep up with what's happening in Major League Baseball.

So, let's stop wasting time and dive right in.

⚾️ Baseball is back on NBC: MLB returns to NBC and Peacock in 2026! In addition to becoming the exclusive home of Sunday Night Baseball, NBC Sports will broadcast MLB Sunday Leadoff, “Opening Day” and Labor Day primetime games, the first round of the MLB Draft, the entire Wild Card round of the postseason, and much more.

MLB: New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers
Jorge Montanez breaks down all of the relevant injury news around the league over the last week.

Are Pitchers Struggling With Command or the ABS?

In our first edition of this column, we talked about Major League Baseball adopting an Automated Ball-Strike Challenge System that had been used in the minor leagues in previous seasons. That system has been a success so far this season, but we're still learning what the ramifications will be throughout the game. Could one of them be an uptick in walks? It's become a bit of a discussion point since the league walk rate is up considerably in the early stages of the season.

League Walk Rate

Baseball Reference3

As you can see here, when I say "up considerably," I'm not exaggerating. The league is averaging 3.78 walks per game, which would be the most since 1950. Only once this century has the league posted a walk per game rate over 3.4, so running a 3.78 mark is a stark difference. Could the ABS be part of the reason for that?

The argument seems to make sense. If players are now able to challenge balls and strikes, then they could extend at-bats that would have previously been strikeouts or earn walks on at-bats that would have previously continued. However, a look at Statcast’s detailed breakdown would seem to refute that. So far, league-wide, batters have gained 30 walks on challenges. However, catchers/pitchers have eliminated 40 walks on challenges. Now, this doesn't mean that at-bat didn't end in a walk, but it's telling us that, due to ABS challenges alone, we should actually have seen a REDUCTION in walks, so something else is going on here.

A quick glance at league-wide stats on Fangraphs also shows that the zone rate is the lowest it's been in the last five years.

zone rate

FanGraphs

It's not a major difference, but it's something to note. There are more walks because fewer pitches are being thrown in the zone, which isn't a crazy notion. However, if you also look at the league average vertical movement on Fangraphs, which is broken down by pitch type, you can see that four-seam fastballs have more "rise" or induced vertical movement (iVB) that we've seen in the last five year, but also that sliders, curves, and changeups all have more vertical break than we've seen in the last five years. Could that be due to more teams using pitch modeling and optimizing arsenals for movement? Could it be changes to the baseball (like seam height), which is allowing pitchers to get more movement but causing them to struggle with command? At this stage, it's hard to know for sure, and this may all revert to the norm, but it's something we should be monitoring.

Don’t Give Up on Talented Prospects

Perhaps the star of the early weeks of the MLB season is Jordan Walker. The former 4th-ranked prospect in baseball struggled in his first three MLB seasons. After getting his first MLB opportunity at age 21, Walker was unable to establish much consistency and was demoted to the minor leagues multiple times over the past three seasons. Even though he won't turn 24 years old until May 22nd, there was some discussion of whether or not Walker may never pan out at the highest level.

Yet, thanks to a retooling of his swing in the offseason, Walker has come out of the gates on fire, hitting .333/.394/.767 with an MLB-leading eight home runs, 15 runs scored, and 15 RBI.

While it may be too early to say this is "real," we can say with confidence that Walker is an improved hitter who is showing that he belongs as a regular at the big league level. He's not the only former top prospect who is off to a great start after being a bit of an afterthought. Chase DeLauter of the Guardians, Max Muncy of the Athletics, and Colt Keith of the Tigers are all off to strong starts after having seen their prospect shine fade in recent seasons.

Much of DeLauter's waning prospect hype was connected to injury. He still ranked high on many scouting services, but injuries had prevented him from having over 242 plate appearances in any minor league season after being drafted in the first round of the 2022 MLB Draft. There was some concern that his body may never hold up over a whole season, and while we're still crossing our fingers that it does, the 24-year-old is currently 6th in baseball in wRC+ and is hitting .300/.379/.680 with five home runs and 12 RBI.

Max Muncy may never have been an elite prospect, but he was a first-round pick in the 2021 MLB Draft and was consistently one of the top 10 prospects in the Athletics' system. Colt Keith had been ranked as the 25th prospect in baseball in 2024 by MLB Pipeline, but had two fairly average MLB seasons to begin his career and fallen out of many discussions about the better young players in the game. Now, both Muncy and Keith are among the top 50 hitters in all of baseball in wRC+.

Perhaps the lesson here is to give young players with intriguing batted ball data a bit more of a leash. Last year, Walker had a max evit velocity of 117.9 mph and one of 115.5 mph in 2024. We knew he could do damage to a baseball when he made contact. DeLauter had no regular-season MLB data before this year, but he had a 52% hard-hit rate in Triple-A last year. Muncy had a 10.1% barrel rate in 139 batted ball events last season at the MLB level, and Colt Keith pisted a 9.2% barrel rate and a 44% hard-hit rate in his 137 games last year. All of Walker, Muncy, and Keith have come into this season with faster bat speeds and more optimized swing paths, which have led to more consistently hard contact.

It's not a guarantee that prospects who produce hard contact while struggling in their early seasons will figure it out (cough - Jarred Kelenic - cough), but these four hitters are a good reminder that a little extra grace with young hitters isn't always such a bad idea.

MLB: Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros
A surprising Padres starter and two early bat speed gainers are recommended grabs this week.

Starting Pitchers Are Adding More Pitches to Their Arsenals

In last week's article, I talked about how many pitchers were adding a secondary type of fastball (two-seamer or cutter) to go along with their four-seamer. I discussed that having multiple fastball variations allowed pitchers to adjust to the fact that hitters were now getting better at hitting higher velocity pitches and that contact on higher velocity pitches usually led to more damage. To build off of that, there is some early research to suggest that pitchers are expanding their arsenal more in general, not limited to fastballs.

The increased reliance on "pitch factories" like Driveline and Tread that use modeling to map out spin patterns and create pitches tailored to a pitcher's specific arm path and grip preferences has made it easier for pitchers and teams to create new shapes or add whole new pitches to a pitcher's mix over the course of an offseason. As I've also mentioned in a lot of my writing, pitchers who can attack both right-handed and left-handed hitters with at least three pitches tend to have more success because they can keep hitters guessing and also attack all quadrants of the strike zone with different velocities and movement patterns.

Now, pitchers are also able to build pitch mixes that are specific for both righties and lefties, which means they don't have to throw the same breaking ball to each because it's "their best one," or they don't have to throw the same fastball to each because it's their only one. They can create a deeper arsenal of pitches that is designed to fulfill a specific need against a specific type of hitter.

So far, in 2026, here are the pitches we have seen increase in usage the most across the league (remember that these are league-wide numbers, so small percentages matter a lot):

2023 Usage2024 Usage2025 Usage2026 Usage
Sinker15.5%15.5%15.7%16.6%
Change-up10.8%10.1%10.2%11.2%
Sweeper6%6.9%7.4%7.9%
Split-finger2.2%3.1%3.3%3.4%

We alluded to the increase in sinker usage above, and the increase in sweeper usage is tied to a decrease in slider usage. Pitchers have been working on using multiple variations of a slider, with the sweeper, a slower pitch with more horizontal movement, being more effective against same-handed hitters than a traditional slider, which is harder and has a tighter movement profile. Changeups are also becoming more en vogue this year as pitchers adopt a "kick-change" grip, which is a combination of a traditional changeup and a split-finger that allows the changeup to have more drastic arm-side movement and create more strikeouts. I'll likely be writing about that in more detail next time we have this column.

⚾️ Baseball is back on NBC: MLB returns to NBC and Peacock in 2026! In addition to becoming the exclusive home of Sunday Night Baseball, NBC Sports will broadcast MLB Sunday Leadoff, “Opening Day” and Labor Day primetime games, the first round of the MLB Draft, the entire Wild Card round of the postseason, and much more.

Team Trends

It's no surprise that the Dodgers currently have the best record in baseball at 13-4; however, what might surprise you is that not far behind them are the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are 10-7 to start the season, the fourth-best record in the National League. The Pirates made some headlines this season when they added Brandon Lowe, Marcell Ozuna, and Ryan O'Hearn. None of them were eye-popping additions, but it was the first time that the Pirates had really spent money in the offseason. Even with Ozuna not producing, the offense has been noticeably better this season. Pittsburgh ranks 7th in wRC+, 7th in batting average, 7th in runs scored, 7th in OPS, and 9th in walk rate. They are middle of the pack in hard-hit rate and ISO, so this isn't a team that's crushing the ball, but they've put together a solid offense and paired that with a young pitching staff led by Paul Skenes, Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler, and - soon - Jared Jones. With top prospect Konnor Griffin also now in the mix, this could be an exciting season in Pittsburgh.

Aside from the Pirates, we've also seen surprisingly strong starts for the Twins and Guardians, who are 11-7 and 10-8, respectively, the two best records in the American League. It may be unfair to say that the Guardians are a surprise considering they won the division last year, but, even now, FanGraphs gives them a sub-20% chance to win the division and just a 36% chance to make the playoffs. That's 9th-best in the American League. Before the season started, the Giardians also had the third-best odds to win the AL Central and were +240 to make the postseason, which suggested about a 70% chance that they'd miss the playoffs.

Meanwhile, the Twins were +500 to make the postseason at the start of the year, which makes a bit of sense considering they traded away Carlos Correa, Jhoan Duran,Eduoard Julien, and Griffin Jax and then lost Pablo Lopez for the season with an arm injury. Yet, a Twins lineup filled with players who were mostly considered afterthoughts is currently 3rd in home runs, 5th in runs scored, 5th in ISO, 6th in wRC+, and 9th in OPS. They do have the 9th-highest strikeout rate, and their pitching staff is 20th in ERA and 25th in strikeout rate, so there are some kinks in the armor, but this has been a nice start for Minnesota.

On the pitching front, it's been a surprisingly nice start for Atlanta, whose starting rotation has the third-best ERA in baseball at 3.01 through the first 95.2 innings, which is also the sixth-most innings of any starting rotation in baseball. Atlanta's rotation may be 21st in strikeout rate and 16th in walk rate, but they are 2nd in hard-hit rate allowed, 5th in WHIP, and 5th in average exit velocity allowed. Predictive metrics like xFIP and SIERA are not as convinced that this rotation is good; however, considering that Spencer Schwellenbach, Spencer Strider, AJ Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep, and Joey Wentz are on the injured list, the fact that the Braves' rotation is pitching anywhere close to this well is a surprise to many people.

Individual Player Spotlights

Starting Pitcher Spotlight: Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays

It's been a long road back for McClanahan, but Tuesday's win over the White Sox marked his first win since 2023. The left-hander made his MLB debut in 2021 at 24 years old and quickly became one of the best young pitchers in baseball. He finished 6th in AL Cy Young voting in 2022, and from the time of his debut until August of 2023 (more on that below), McClanahan had the 6th-best ERA in baseball among qualified pitchers with a 3.02 mark in 404.2 innings. He was also 8th in strikeout rate, at 28%, and 8th in K-BB%, at 21%. Even the ERA predictors, like SIERA, had him as a top 10 pitcher in baseball. He began 2023 at 27 years old and seemed to be entering his prime. He was having a tremendous season, posting a 3.29 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 26% strikeout rate in 115 innings. Unfortunately, he felt forearm tightness in August of that season and wound up undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career later that month.

The surgery kept him out for the rest of the 2023 season and the entire 2024 season. He was back on the mound in March of 2025 and looked good in spring training, throwing seven shutout innings with eight strikeouts and two walks. Then, in his final spring start, he suffered a nerve injury in his triceps. While the injury wasn't expected to keep him out too long, it never quite responded to treatment the way the team hoped, and McClanahan had to have a procedure in August of 2025 to fix the nerve issue in his arm.

When McClanahan returned to the mound on March 31st this season, it was his first MLB start since August 2nd of 2023, and his win on Tuesday was his first win since June 16th of 2023. His fastball is no longer where it used to be. He's averaging 94.8 mph on it now with just 14.7 inches of Induced Vertical Break (iVB) when his four-seam fastball sat 96.8 mph in 2023 with 16.6 inches of iVB. It no longer misses as many bats, and the command of it isn't as pristine as it used to be; however, command issues are often the last thing to be fixed after extended absences. His slider has also lost some velocity and break, which has made it a less impactful swing-and-miss pitch, but his changeup remains a really strong offering that both misses bats and induces weak contact against righties. That profile still makes him a solid starting pitcher, but certainly not one with the upside he used to possess. Perhaps that version of him is still in there somewhere, but for now, just getting that first win is a moment to celebrate.

Relief Pitcher Spotlight: Mason Miller, San Diego Padres

I know most people reading this know about Mason Miller, but I just have to highlight how ridiculous he has been to start the season. The Padres closer has saved five games while allowing one hit and one walk in 8.1 innings while striking out 20 batters. 20 BATTERS! Pitching 8.1 innings means that he has gotten 25 batters out this season, and 20 of them have been via strikeout. He has faced 27 total batters this season, and he has struck out 20 of them. If you want to go back even farther, since August 6th of last year, Miller has pitched 29.2 innings, allowing five hits and walking 10 batters but striking out 62 and not allowing a single run. It's absurd. He currently has the 6th-best odds to win the NL Cy Young, and while that won't happen, that's an impressive sign of respect for a reliever.

Hitter Spotlight: Andy Pages, Los Angeles Dodgers

After his brutal postseason stretch last year, many people forgot just how good Pages had been for much of 2025. During the regular season last year, Pages hit .272/.313/.461 with 27 home runs, 86 RBI, and 14 steals in 156 games. He did that while playing above-average defense at all three outfield spots. However, in the playoffs, Pages was just 4-for-51 (.078) with an 11/0 K/BB ratio and only one extra base hit. Considering how many people were watching those games, Pages performing so poorly unfairly tainted what was a really impressive first full MLB season for the 25-year-old.

Yet, it didn't take him long to get redemption. As of Wednesday morning, Andy Pages is the best player in baseball. Literally. Yes, you can argue that this won't like - and it likely won't - but Pages, at this moment, leads all of baseball with a 1.3 Wins Above Replacement. If you want to talk about his value strictly as a hitter, he is second in baseball in wRC+, trailing only Ben Rice. Pages is hitting .417/.453/.733 with five home runs, nine runs scored, 20 RBI, and two steals. That's first in the league in RBI, first in the league in batting average, 3rd in the league in OPS, and tied for 7th in the league in home runs. For almost a month, Andy Pages has been among the best players in the game, and considering how he must have felt during last year's postseason run, that's a hell of a turnaround.

Individual Stat Leaders (4/1 - 4/14)

Hits

  1. Andy Pages - OF, Dodgers: 19 hits (.422 batting average)
  2. Drake Baldwin - C, Braves: 18 hits (.327 batting average)
  3. Jo Adell - OF, Angels: 17 hits (.340 batting average)
  4. Oneil Cruz - OF, Pirates: 17 hits (.347 batting average)
  5. CJ Abrams - SS, Nationals 17 hits (.405 batting average)

Home Runs

  1. Jordan Walker - OF, Cardinals 7 home runs
  2. CJ Abrams - SS, Nationals: 6 home runs
  3. Shohei Ohtani - DH, Dodgers: 5 home runs
  4. Mickey Moniak - OF, Rockies: 5 home runs
  5. Gunnar Henderson - OF, Orioles: 5 home runs

Steals

  1. Oneil Cruz - OF, Pirates: 7 steals
  2. Bobby Witt Jr. - SS, Royals: 7 steals
  3. Jakob Marsee - OF, Marlins: 7 steals
  4. Jose Ramirez - 3B, Guardians: 6 steals
  5. 4 players with 5 steals (Geraldo Perdomo, Jose Caballero, Elly De La Cruz, Chandler Simpson)

Strikeouts (K-BB%)

  1. Drew Ramussen, Rays: 35.9% K-BB%
  2. Cam Schlittler - Yankees: 32.8% K-BB%
  3. José Soriano, Angels: 32.7% K-BB%
  4. Tyler Glasnow, Dodgers: 27.1% K-BB%
  5. Steven Matz, Rays: 26.2% K-BB%

Saves

  1. Paul Sewald - Diamondbacks: 4 saves
  2. Emilio Pagan, Reds: 4 saves
  3. Mason Miller, Padres: 4 saves
  4. Lucas Erceg, Royals: 4 saves
  5. 8 pitchers with 3 saves

Minor league update for 4/14/26

A view of the Appomattox River from City Point in Hopewell, VA. | Kristi K. Higgins/Progress-Index.com / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Aneudys Mejia went four innings for Hickory, allowing one run, walking two and striking out five.

Paulino Santana was 1 for 3 with a walk and a stolen base. Dewar Tovar homered. Yolfran Castillo was 2 for 4. Marcos Torres had a hit and a stolen base. Daniel Flames was 3 for 3 with a walk.

Hickory box score

Hub City starter Aidan Curry allowed one run on a solo homer by former #5 overall pick Elijah Green, striking out six and walking one in five innings. Bubba Hoopi-Tuionetoa struck out one and walked one in 1.2 shutout innings.

Paxton Kling was 3 for 4 with a pair of stolen bases. Malcolm Moore homered. Chandler Pollard had a pair of hits and a stolen base.

Hub City box score

Frisco starter Josh Trentadue gave up 5 runs in 2.2 IP, striking out five and walking one. Ryan Lobus gave up a solo homer in 2.1 IP, striking out three. Eric Loomis struck out one and walked one in a scoreless inning.

Ian Moller had a pair of hits and a stolen base. Keith Jones II had three walks.

Frisco was trailing 11-8 heading into the ninth, but scored 7 runs in the top of the ninth.

Frisco box score

For Round Rock, Alexis Diaz retired the one batter he faced. Josh Sborz struck out two in a shutout inning. Michel Otanez struck out one in a scoreless inning. Gavin Collyer struck out two and walked one in a scoreless inning. Peyton Gray went two scoreless, striking out two.

Justin Foscue was 3 for 5 with a double and a homer. Alejandro Osuna had a hit, two walks and a stolen base. Cam Cauley had a hit and two walks. Aaron Zavala had a hit.

Round Rock box score

Momentum Moments: Vol. 10

MILWAUKEE, WI - APRIL 10: Teammates pour water on AJ Green #20 of the Milwaukee Bucks after the game against the Brooklyn Nets on April 10, 2026 at Fiserv Forum Center in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Gary Dineen/NBAE via Getty Images). | NBAE via Getty Images

Well, we made it. It wasn’t always pretty—and there was often more pain than pleasure—but the 2025-26 season has finally come to a close. Along the way, every major moment, every momentum-shifting play has been captured—here, in prose and picture. 10 volumes, 82 games’ worth. So, for one last time, enjoy reliving the moments that made this Bucks season what it was.

vs. Spurs 

It’s a Saturday afternoon in Milwaukee and, with just 10 games left in the season and half the roster injured, Bucks fans have little to get excited about. Ryan Rollins has been excellent all year, but that’s become expected now, the awe worn off. They do, however, have a recently-acquired lithe Frenchman who’s suddenly been thrust into a major role. He’s shown a lot too—flashes of lockdown D, a smooth stroke from three, ball handling and playmaking ability. It’s all there. He starts well too—two rebounds, an assist, a coast-to-coast and-one layup—and the Bucks are surprisingly hanging with the Spurs. But then, Julian Champagnie grabs an offensive rebound and finds 7’4” Victor Wembanyama, who’s determined to remind Bucks fans that he’s the only lithe Frenchman worth awing over. He grabs the pass—head full of steam—takes one dribble from behind the three-point line, eludes four Bucks, and drops a no-look, behind-the-back dime to Stephon Castle for the jam. Extraterrestrial stuff. And yet another crushing blow to Bucks fans’ spirits. 

Win probability after Dieng’s and-one: 15.1%

Win probability after Wembanyama’s assist: 11.6%

vs. Clippers

Milwaukee is officially knocked out of playoff contention and welcomes the Los Angeles Clippers to Fiserv—the same team that whooped them by 33 just three games ago. That led by as much as 46. Making things worse, only eight players are available for the Bucks. Yeah, we know where this one’s headed. Still, Gary Trent Jr. has come for the fight, and has 15 points with just over a minute left in the half. 

Shot clock off, Trent Ds up Bennedict Mathurin, who’s increased his scoring to 20 per game since coming over from Indiana. Trent locks in, plays Mathurin close—gets right up into him. Under his skin. So much so that Mathurin first pushes off and then—when that’s not called—clamps Trent’s arm in an attempt to create an advantage. Instead, it’s an offensive foul. Bucks ball. And Trent is barking. On the other end, Trent takes possession, dribbling right into a pull-up three that splashes twine with just 1.6 seconds left in the period. It’s his fifth three of the half and he is juiced, giving the Bucks the kind of momentum that, on another night, spurs them to a second-half charge and victory. Tonight, though, all it does is beg: where has this been all season long?

Win probability before Trent draws the offensive foul: 4.0%

Win probability after his three to end the half: 5.8%

vs. Mavs

The Mavs don’t want to win. The Bucks don’t want to win. And no one really cares about this game. But with 2:48 minutes to go in the fourth quarter, Alex Antetokounmpo checks in for the first time ever and, suddenly, the most important man in Bucks’ history is invested. And so are you. 47 seconds later, he finds himself at the free throw line. Clank—yeah, he’s an Antetokounmpo. But the second is pure, Giannis is standing, and the whole damn building is cheering. 57 seconds later, he’s back at the line, this time sinking both. And, when the final siren rings, he’s got a better career free throw percentage than Giannis, Thanasis, and Kostas—and the Bucks have given Giannis yet another memory to tether him to Milwaukee.

Win probability before Alex checks in: 99.9%

Win probability after his first NBA point: 99.9% (though Giannis’ extension odds surely tick up)

@ Rockets

Forget the moment—this season is done. It’s all about the future. And tonight’s game gives oodles of reasons to be optimistic. Career highs for Ousmane Dieng, Pete Nance, and Cormac Ryan in scoring, a career high for Jericho Sims on the boards. In a road game against a top-six Western Conference opponent, in which the Bucks only really play six guys—and only lose by six—that’s a hell of a lot to like. Mostly, though, it’s Dieng’s fourth quarter—the way he takes control and nearly wills Milwaukee to victory: 17 points and three assists, living in the pick and roll for drive-by finishes at the rim and yank-back Js (all while guarding Kevin Durant on the other end). It’s cold-blooded; hypnotic. Future momentum. Personified. 

Win probability after Jabari Smith gives the Rockets a 10-point lead to open the fourth: 6.1%

Win probability after Dieng’s 17-foot step back jumper cuts it to four: 9.6%

vs. Celtics

With the luck of the Irish on their side, the Boston Celtics have turned a season that was supposed to be turmoil—was supposed to be a gap year—into a second-place standing in the East. The Bucks… have not. And now they square off, the Bucks without Giannis, Rollins, KPJ, Portis, and Trent; the Celtics missing only Nikola Vucevic. More importantly, they’ve got their (normal) MVP candidate back, Jayson Tatum. He’s been slow to find his rhythm, shooting just 40% since returning from his Achilles injury, but he’s involved early—a rebound and an assist in the opening moments. Then, after Derrick White secures possession off a jump ball, he snaps the cords on a three. 11-3, Celtics. Timeout, Bucks. By the end of the quarter, the Bucks are on life support, down 43-26. By the end of the game, they’re long dead, and Tatum has dismantled them like a coroner: 23, 11, and nine, shooting 50% from both the field and three. Clinical. 

Win probability after the opening tip: 15.1%

Win probability after Tatum’s three: 8.1%

vs. Grizzlies

It’s Easter Sunday and the rag-tag Grizzlies, trailing by just two, can sniff the chocolates. Lisa Byington senses it too: “The Bucks need a bucket.” Enter Jericho Sims. First, he gets to work, battling for rebounding position. Then, when the miss comes, he completes the contract (even if the refs call a holding foul that wipes away the offensive carom from the box score). Still, it’s Bucks ball. But they haven’t got that bucket, not yet. It’s only fitting, then, that Sims is the supplier, collecting the feed from Taurean Prince, rising up—head grazing the rim, of course—and slamming it down. It’s the start of a 35-21 run that secures a win for the Fiserv fans who need something sweet at this time of year. And, just when the crowd thinks it’s found all the eggs, Alex Antetokounmpo checks in and scores his first NBA field goal on an iso jumper. Then, on the next possession, he lobs one to Thanasis, who throws it down, and everyone goes home with their sweet tooth satisfied. 

Win probability after the Grizzlies cut it to two: 64.9%

Win probability after Sims’ dunk: 70.6%

@ Nets

The Bucks have been under scrutiny for sitting a “healthy” Giannis. So what do they do? Against the Nets—a team that’s been ignored while fielding a roster full of guys you don’t even know are in the league—they sit seven of their top players and don’t even play a point guard, raising a big middle finger to everyone who’s taken umbrage at them. And to make it even better, they lose—which, paradoxically, makes them winners. Ha! 

Win probability before the game: 57.8%

Win probability at the end of the game: 0.0% (and that’s the whole damn point)

@ Pistons

In the Preview and Game Thread I wrote about Sims as the “Player to Watch,” citing his excellence in points per shot attempt (99th percentile for bigs), effective field goal percentage (99th percentile), and assist to usage ratio (91st percentile), while also highlighting his pitfalls in steal percentage (9th percentile), block percentage (10th percentile), and turnover percentage (0th percentile), concluding that “if Sims can even marginally shore up these weaknesses, his efficiency alone could make him a far more impactful rotation piece moving forward.” Against the Pistons, there’s nothing marginal about it. Sims has himself a career night: 11 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists, and two steals—with just two turnovers to boot.

Win probability at any point: who cares? The Bucks are locked into the 11th or 12th spot anyway.

Win probability after Sims completes the triple-double: still irrelevant. But the growth? Momentous. 

vs. Nets

As it turns out, the game isn’t between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Brooklyn Nets. No, it’s actually between the Bucks’ starting backcourt: AJ “Dairy Bird” Green and Cormac “If he keeps playing this well he’ll be a household name” Ryan. Ryan takes the cake early, exploding for 18 points in the first quarter alone, to just three for Green. And by the half he’s still well in front: 21 points to nine. By three-quarter time, the gap has narrowed—24-18—but Dairy Bird is now airborne. Then, in the fourth, he’s in full flight, skying for 17 points in the period, including five bombs. The last is his 11th for the game—a new Bucks franchise record—and, by the time the final whistle blows, they’ve both got new career highs. Combined, they put up 63 points, 10 rebounds, seven assists, and three steals, shooting 21/35 from the field and 16/25 from three. Goodness gracious. 

Ryan’s win probability after the first quarter: 94.5%

Green’s win probability after the third: 44.3%

The real winner? Bucks fans.

@ 76ers

It’s not every day you’re better than Jesus. 

First, Green nails a tough corner look over Paul George. Three No. 228. Nothin but. Second, Thanasis gets up for a block to start the transition opportunity and Ryan knows just what to do with it, finding Green who ties the franchise record. 229. Then, on their very next possession, Ryan finds him again for a transition look from nearly the exact same spot. It curls around the rim, bounces up off the backboard in slow motion—as if written by a screenwriter for tension—and hits rim once more on the way down before falling through the net. 230! All alone at the top. Dairy Bird. Then Jesus. 

Despite a strong effort, the Bucks go on to lose the game. But they sure as hell got the moment. 

Win probability to start the game: 20.4%

Win probability after Green surpasses Ray Allen: 24.8%


With the series coming to a close (at least in its current iteration), I’d like to thank you all for following along. It’s been a journey, especially as the velocity of the season came to a grinding halt slowed down. If this series has taught me anything, it’s that momentum comes in many forms—and sometimes when you least expect it. Perhaps then, despite all the frustrations of the season and all the worries we currently carry, this offseason will provide the Bucks something—a moment—that propels them back in the right direction. Here’s hoping they seize it.

Until then, which moment hit hardest in Volume 10? Cast your vote below and, as always, add your thoughts in the comments.

Minor League Recap: Justin Campbell is not supposed to be this good

Columbus Clippers Travis Bazzana (12) throws the ball to first base during home opener at Huntington Park on Tuesday, March 31, 2026, in Columbus, Ohio. | Samantha Madar/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Columbus Clippers 1, Iowa Cubs 8

Clippers fall to 8-8

Columbus jumped out to a 1-0 lead and then gave up eight unanswered runs to get blown out.

Petey Halpin and C.J. Kayfus led the way, both going 2-for-4, with Halpin scoring the team’s lone run.

No one else reached base safely twice, although Travis Bazanna and Kahlil Watson both doubled.

Starting pitcher Pedro Avila allowed three runs on four hits in 3.2 innings with an impressive eight strikeouts and two walks.

Tommy Mace then came in for attempted long relief and it did not go well. Mace was tattooed for five runs on two hits with four walks in just 0.2 innings.

The rest of the bullpen was solid, with Jack Leftwich tossing 1.2 scoreless innings. Cody Heuer also had a scoreless frame and top bullpen prospects Andrew Walters and Franco Aleman both had 1-2-3 scoreless frames with Walters striking out two.

Akron RubberDucks 2, Harrisburg Senators 9

RubberDucks improve to 6-4

Akron made the most of its opportunities, scoring eight runs on seven hits Tuesday while terrorizing Binghamton on the basepaths with seven stolen bases.

Alfonsin Rosario was the top offensive performer, going 1-for-3 with a home run and a walk, also stealing a base.

Wuilfredo Antunez went 2-for-4 with a double and a stolen base, Angel Genao went 1-for-4 with a walk and a stolen base, Nick Mitchell went 1-for-4 with two stolen bases, Alex Mooney walked twice and stole a base, Joe Lampe went 1-for-3 with a walk and a stolen base and Jacob Cozart went 1-for-2 with a walk and a sacrifice fly.

Starting pitcher Matt Wilkinson was flat out impressive, allowing one run on six hits in 4.1 innings with five strikeouts and one walk. Through two starts at Double-A, he’s boating a rock solid 2.16 ERA.

Both Jack Jasiak and Matt Jachek allowed three runs in their relief appearances, but Alaska Abney saved the day with a scoreless ninth inning to earn his first save of the season.

Lake County Captains 13, Fort Wayne Tincaps 4

Captains improve to 5-5

As ecstatic as I am about Lake County’s offense erupting for 13 runs, let’s start with Justin Campbell.

He was Cleveland’s first round competitive balance pick in 2022, the same year they drafted Chase DeLauter, but due to a pair of surgeries, he did not make his pro debut until this season. You never know what to expect with players who have extended delays in their development, but Campbell has passed all tests with flying colors. Cleveland named him Lake County’s opening day starter for 2026 and he’s lived up to the hype with dominant pitching. He’s pumping his fastball in the mid-90s, commanding the strike zone well and utilizing all of his secondaries.

On Tuesday, he flat out dominated Fort Wayne hitters, tossing 3.0 shutout innings of one-hit ball with three strikeouts and no walks. At this point, he may not be long for Lake County’s rotation because he needs a bigger challenge. He has a 1.23 ERA through three starts and is rocketing up my Guardians prospect rankings.

On the offensive side of the equation, Lake County racked up 13 hits and 11 walks, with every player on the team reaching base at least twice.

Jaison Chourio blasted his first home run of the season, going 2-for-6.

Dean Curley was nearly perfect at the dish, going 2-for-3 with a double and three walks to reach base a whopping five times.

Bennett Thompson also continues to impress with his bat, going 2-for-3 with a pair of doubles and two walks while Nolan Schubart went 2-for-5 with his first home run of the campaign.

Aaron Walton reached base three times, going 2-for-4 with a walk, while Jace LaViolette went 1-for-5 with a walk. Luke Hill went 1-for-3 with a walk, a sacrifice fly and three RBIs while Anthony Silva went 1-for-4 with a walk and Maick Collado walked twice.

Melkis Hernandez earned the win in long relief, allowing four runs (two earned) on five hits in 3.1 innings pitched.

Kendeglys Virguez impressed with three strikeouts in a 1-2-3 inning while Cam Walty finished off the win with 1.2 scoreless inings.

Hill City Howlers 5, Wilson Warbirds 7

Howlers fall to 6-4

The youngsters teed off for their first home runs of the season in this one.

Juneiker Caceres went 2-for-5 with a bomb, while Dauri Fernandez went 1-for-5 with a three-run blast that almost brought Hill City back into the game.

Other offensive standouts included Robert Arias, who went 2-for-4 with two stolen bases, and Luis De La Cruz, who went 2-for-3 with a walk and two more stolen bases. They need to move De La Cruz up in the batting order at this point. He’s batting .407 with a 1.012 OPS on the young season.

Starting pitcher Aiden Major allowed two runs on two hits in 3.0 innings. He walked two and struck out four.

Unfortunately, reliever Wes Burton simply could not get out of the fourth inning, surrendering five runs in just 0.2 frames on three hits and a pair of walks.

Will McCausland gave the Howlers a great chance to make a comeback with 4.0 scoreless innings of long relief, striking out five and walking two while allowing just one hit.

Cubs 10, Phillies 4: Colin Rea pitches well and everyone hits

The Cubs’ 10-4 win over the Phillies Tuesday evening in Philadelphia is, I think, the sort of game this team can begin to produce more often.

Solid starting pitching. (Well, Colin Rea was essentially the starter after Riley Martin opened.)

Six different Cubs had at least two hits. Overall: 15 hits, six walks, two doubles and a home run. This team is capable of this sort of offensive production and I think we’ll see more of it going forward.

Martin dispatched the Phillies on just six pitches in the first inning. As I’ve said, I like what I’ve seen from Martin. He attacks hitters, doesn’t mess around, seems to have good mound presence. I hope he sticks around.

About those six pitches, from BCB’s JohnW53:

Riley Martin’s six pitches were the second fewest known to have been thrown by a Cubs starter.

Frank Castillo threw three pitches to one batter against the Mets on Aug. 10, 1991, then departed with an injured shoulder.

Alec Mills threw seven against the Red Sox on July 2, 2022, and Shawn Boskie threw eight against the Cardinals on June 16, 1992. Both also were injured. Both pitched to two batters.

Drew Pomeranz threw eight as a one-inning opener against the Nationals on Sept. 7 last year. He had thrown nine against the Reds on May 31.

Rea then entered the game and things didn’t go well, at least at first. Two singles and a 442-foot home run by Edmundo Sosa gave the Phillies a 3-0 lead in the second. After that, though, Rea allowed just one other hit in completing six innings, striking out five with no walks. He retired the last 10 Phillies he faced in throwing 87 pitches (58 strikes). Here’s more on Rea’s outing [VIDEO].

And more from John:

The last Cub to pitch six innings in relief was Ben Brown, at home against the Reds on May 31, 2025. He gave up no runs on one hit, walked one and struck out nine.

There had been only three others of at least 6.0 since 2000:
Jamie Arnold, on Sept. 22, 2000, at home vs. the Cardinals (6.2 IP, 1 R, 3 H, 2 BB, 2 SO)
Eddie Butler, on March 30, 2018, at Miami (7.0 IP, 1 R, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 SO)
Alec Mills, on Aug. 14, 2019, at Philadelphia (6.0 IP, 3 R, 4 H [2 homers], 2 BB, 4 SO)

It was also noted on the broadcast was the fact that Rea was the first to go 6 innings in relief with no walks since Rodney Myers on Aug. 31, 1999.

While Rea was stifling Phillies batters, Cubs hitters went about erasing that 3-0 deficit. Two runs came back in the third. Pete Crow-Armstrong led off with a double and went to third on a ground out. Nico Hoerner’s single scored PCA [VIDEO].

Michael Busch singled, but Nico was thrown out trying to take third. Alex Bregman followed that with a single, with Busch stopping at second.

Ian Happ’s double scored Busch [VIDEO].

Happ missed a home run by only a couple of feet. It went to a crew chief review, but a double was confirmed. Still, the Cubs trailed by just one.

They tied the game up in the fifth. Dansby Swanson led off with a walk and one out later, Busch walked. Bregman’s single made it 3-3 [VIDEO].

The Cubs broke the game open in the sixth off reliever Tim Mayza. With one out, Carson Kelly walked and PCA was hit by a pitch. Swanson reached on a fielder’s choice, loading the bases.

Nico gave the Cubs a two-run lead [VIDEO].

Swanson stopped at third, and then Busch walked to load the bases.

Bregman’s single scored two more runs [VIDEO].

The score remained 7-3 Cubs through seven thanks to Rea’s great outing. Jacob Webb relieved Rea and gave up a double to Sosa and an RBI single to Trea Turner to make it 7-4. At that point Craig Counsell called on Caleb Thielbar to face the Phillies’ tough left-handed hitters, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. Schwarber singled, but Thielbar struck out Harper. Then Thielbar threw a wild pitch, advancing the runners to second and third.

Thielbar then struck out Alec Bohm to end the threat [VIDEO].

The Cubs had Daniel Palencia warming up in the ninth for a potential save opportunity, but the offense made the save op unnecessary. Seiya Suzuki led off with a single and Miguel Amaya walked.

Kelly then smashed his first home run of the season [VIDEO].

With a six-run lead, Counsell called on left-hander Ryan Rolison to a success. Rolison gave up a one-out single to Bryson Stott, but then induced this game-ending double play ball [VIDEO].

It was a satisfying win in every way. Here are Counsell’s postgame remarks [VIDEO].

Here are some postgame comments from Nico Hoerner [VIDEO].

As I mentioned above, this is the sort of offense I expect from this team going forward. It was especially good to see two-hit nights from Busch and PCA, two guys who have been really struggling. They’ll be just fine going forward, I think.

The Cubs will play the series finale tonight against the Phillies with a chance to take the series. Shōta Imanaga, who was outstanding last time out against the Pirates (six no-hit innings), gets the call for the Cubs. He’ll have a tough opponent in Phillies lefty Jesús Luzardo. Game time is again 5:40 p.m. CT and TV coverage will be via Marquee Sports Network.

Will the legend of Dom Smith exceed that of Pablo Sandoval?

ATLANTA, GA - APRIL 14: Dominic Smith #8 of the Atlanta Braves celebrates after the game against the Miami Marlins at Truist Park on April 14, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Matthew Grimes Jr./Atlanta Braves/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Dominic Smith is on quite a run. Through April 14, he has both a wOBA and xwOBA well in excess of .400… but let’s not kid ourselves, what I really mean here is that he is currently third among position players, and fifth in MLB, in WPA. When he hit that walkoff grand slam, it was a really cool moment, but it actually didn’t really matter WPA-wise given that there were none out and the walkoff run was on third. But last night, he amassed an insane 0.75 WPA, with 0.63 of that coming on his game-winning double into the left-field gap that turned a 5-3 deficit into a 6-5 victory a few minutes later. Combine those heroics with him hitting basically everything from a right-hander, and, yeah. Quite a run.

Amazingly, through mid-April of 2021, appearing exclusively as a pinch-hitter, Pablo Sandoval also had quite a run for the Braves. He had a 371 wRC+ in ten PAs, with basically two gigantic hits — a game-winning homer in a tie game late in one, and then a seventh-inning game-turnaround homer (from a 3-2 deficit to a 5-3 lead) eight days later. His WPA through those first few weeks was above 1.00, basically the same as Smith has through the same place on the calendar.

And then, well, those early heroics kind of faded into obscurity. He finished April with a 199 wRC+ (still great, but not exactly the insane start he had), and then never rose above 100 for any subsequent month. He also got a lot less playing (pinch-hitting) time in June and July, and was basically an afterthought by the time the Braves traded him to Cleveland for eventual postseason hero Eddie Rosario. Whatever stories we tell ourselves about the 2021 season, whether about the playoff run, the Trade Deadline acquisitions, the way Ronald Acuña Jr. carried the team before going down with injury and not being on the field as things righted themselves down the stretch — they seem to have overridden Sandoval’s torrid start. The baseball season is long, so it makes sense…

…but you see where I’m going with this.

So, what do you think? Different role (main DH against right-handers versus main pinch-hitter in a ruleset that didn’t yet have the DH in the National League) taken into account, or not — do you think the legend of Dominic Smith, Braves Hero will only grow, or will it fade like Sandoval’s early-2021 start, in a way where he literally did not factor into the team’s eventual turnaround and postseason success?

Examining Cade Povich and Brandon Young’s path back to the majors

Apr 12, 2026; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles pitcher Cade Povich (37) throws during the fourth inning against the San Francisco Giants at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images | Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

The Orioles entered spring training with a majority of their roster already set. The most surprising move came when Baltimore optioned Dean Kremer to Norfolk at the beginning of the season. The O’s signed Chris Bassitt to a one-year deal, and the front office decided to roll with Bassitt and Zach Eflin as the fourth and fifth starters.

Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish were cemented atop the rotation. The team made a significant commitment to trade acquisition Shane Baz, and Mike Elias inked Bassitt and Eflin to one-year deals. Kremer had a minor-league option remaining, and Baltimore already had one of last year’s starters in the bullpen with Tyler Wells.

The move came as a surprise, but it made sense. Kremer holds a career 4.26 ERA over 127 games. Of those 127 appearances, all but three came as a starting pitcher. Baltimore knew it would need more than five starters to get through a season, and the team declined to mess with Kremer’s process by sending him to the bullpen.

Some hoped that Kremer’s delayed start to the season could offset his traditional struggles at the beginning of the year. Kremer holds a winning or .500 record in every month aside from March/April. His 6.12 ERA and 1.465 WHIP over 114.2 innings are by far his worst totals.

Baltimore made it 15 games before summoning Kremer from the minors. Eflin underwent Tommy John surgery after suffering a devastating injury earlier this month. Surprisingly, the Orioles turned to Cade Povich and Brandon Young before handing Kremer the ball on Monday.

Povich and Young both took full advantage of their first 2026 opportunities. Young shutout the White Sox over five innings in a spot start on April 6. His reward? A return to Norfolk. Povich limited Pittsburgh to two runs over 5.2 innings of mop-up duty on April 5, and he earned his first win of the season with 6.2 innings of one run ball against the Giants. His reward? A return to Norfolk.

The moves made sense. The Orioles wanted a fresh arm in both circumstances. Povich stuck around to make one start, but Baltimore needed another starter for Monday. Baltimore optioned Povich and summoned Kremer on regular rest.

Mike Elias likely mapped out these moves before the games even took place. Elias had to be thrilled watching the two young pitchers flourish, but he planned to option the pair regardless of whether they pitched spectacular, horrific, or anywhere in between.

That’s fine, but what’s next? Kremer struck out nine and did not walk a batter in five innings, but he also allowed three home runs. The 30-year-old appears set to make his second start when his turn comes up in Cleveland.

There is no such thing as too much pitching depth. There’s no problem here, and Kremer has earned his place in the rotation. He was the sixth starter on the depth chart at the beginning of the season, and he’s the fifth starter now that Eflin went down. The question becomes whether Povich and Young belong at Triple-A, or if their talent demands a place on the roster right now.

Baltimore sent Brayden Smith, a 13th-round Draft pick in 2025, to St. Louis to acquire Nick Raquet. With Keegan Akin and Dietrich Enns both on the injured list, the Orioles clearly felt a need to bolster their left-handed relief options. Raquet did not make a strong first impression.

The lefty allowed three runs in a three-run loss to San Francisco during his only appearance. Grant Wolfram has emerged as Baltimore’s primary southpaw, but it remains to be seen whether Raquet can be trusted in a leverage situation. Povich looks like the more reliable lefty right now.

Akin is set to begin a rehab assignment today. It makes sense to keep Povich in a starter’s routine and utilize him if when another injury takes place. That being said, the Orioles appear motivated to do whatever helps the team right now.

Baltimore designated former top pitching prospect Chayce McDermott for assignment earlier this week because the team lacked confidence in his ability to contribute this season. McDermott had an option remaining and could have continued working on his development as a reliever at Norfolk, but the Orioles elected to use the 40-man spot on guys like Raquet and Jayvien Sandridge instead.

Young looked like the starter that threw an immaculate inning against the Mets last July. He likely sits one slot below Povich on the depth chart, and Norfolk’s roster features multiple starters that could earn a promotion in the second half. If Wells, Albert Suárez, or another reliever begins to struggle, when does Young get another look.

Both of these guys were inconsistent last season, but they can only take the next step if given an opportunity. What happens if the rotation manages to stay healthy and these two continue to look the part at Norfolk? Do either Kremer or Bassitt find themselves with a short leash? If not, how long before the Orioles give Povich and/or Young the chance to make an impact out of the bullpen?

What do you think about the Griff McGarry trade?

Mar 7, 2023; Clearwater, Florida, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Griff McGarry (71) throws a pitch against the Tampa Bay Rays in the fifth inning during spring training at BayCare Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Yesterday, the Phillies traded Griff McGarry to the Dodgers for international bonus pool money, plus either a PTBNL or more cash considerations. It was the second time the Phillies parted with him: this past December he went to the Nationals in the Rule 5 Draft, but was returned to the Phillies before Opening Day. The former fifth round draft pick had been in the Phillies organization since 2021, but didn’t play for the big league club. McGarry may still very well have a big league future, but it’ll be in Tinseltown, rather than the City of Brotherly Love.

Today’s question is: what do you think of the McGarry trade?

Who’s to Blame for the Astros’ Slow Start?

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - APRIL 11: Bryan Abreu #52 of the Houston Astros pitches against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on April 11, 2026 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Olivia Vanni/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Astros fans, who do you blame for the slow start to the season?

I’ve written several times that I’m not ready to panic just yet, but I’d be lying if I said there isn’t some real concern. After all, this team currently holds the worst record in Major League Baseball, and the issues aren’t isolated to just one area. The shortcomings are showing up across the board, but none more glaring than with the pitching staff.

Shortstop Carlos Correa recently summed it up well, saying this is a good baseball team playing bad baseball. That sentiment feels accurate. The talent is there. This is still a roster capable of making a playoff run. And despite the rough start, they’re only three games out of first place. It’s early, very early, and there’s plenty of time to right the ship.

Even after being swept by both the Colorado Rockies and the Seattle Mariners, this team leads Major League Baseball in runs scored. The offense has started to click, thanks in large part to a healthy Yordan Alvarez and a resurgent Christian Walker.

But the positives on offense haven’t been enough to outweigh the issues elsewhere.

Injuries have certainly played a role. Key players like Jeremy Peña, Hunter Brown, and Cristian Javier have all missed time. Still, Correa and others in that clubhouse have been adamant about not using injuries as an excuse.

And frankly, the numbers back that up.

The problems start with the pitching staff.

When your bullpen has logged more innings than your starting rotation, that’s a massive red flag. The Astros currently own the worst ERA and WHIP in baseball, the highest opponent batting average, and they lead the league in walks allowed. That’s a recipe for disaster. Add in an eight-game losing streak, the longest since 2013, when the franchise lost over 100 games and it paints a troubling picture.

One of the biggest surprises has been Bryan Abreu.

When Josh Hader went down, there wasn’t much panic. The assumption was simple: Abreu, widely considered one of the best setup men in baseball, would step in and handle closing duties without missing a beat.

Instead, the opposite has happened.

Rather than shutting the door, Abreu has struggled mightily, failing to get out of jams, putting runners on base, giving up home runs, and blowing leads. His ERA ballooned north of 20. For a team already struggling on the mound, that’s been a crushing blow.

So again, the question remains: who’s to blame?

Is it general manager Dana Brown for not doing enough to reinforce the pitching staff, particularly after losing Framber Valdez in free agency, by adding veteran starters?

Do you point the finger at manager Joe Espada? As Correa said, this team is playing bad baseball, and the manager is often the first to take the heat. Then again, in today’s analytically driven game, how much control does the manager really have when front offices heavily influence daily lineup decisions?

Or do you chalk it up to injuries and trust that this team will eventually bounce back?

Maybe the blame falls squarely on the struggles of Abreu and a pitching staff that simply hasn’t delivered.

However you see it, one thing is clear: the Astros have work to do and the clock is already ticking. I mentioned it before, but Lucas Giolito is still out there and could add immediate help to the rotation. Are they willing to add or are we headed towards a fire sale?

So, Astros fans, who do you blame? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below.

Knicks vs. Hawks: 5 things to watch in first round of 2026 NBA playoffs

The playoffs are what the Knicks have been waiting for. In a season where the Knicks won their most regular season games in 13 years, much of it will be forgotten if the club flames out in the postseason.

The first test is the Atlanta Hawks, who are the antithesis of the Knicks in style of play. The Hawks are a mostly young team, they like to play fast, and they have a very small roster.

Here’s five key factors to watch for in New York’s opening round matchup.

Karl-Anthony Towns domination

The kryptonite to New York’s offense over the past two seasons has been opponents defending Karl-Anthony Towns with a wing player. When the Knicks All-Star center is guarded by a traditional five, he usually feasts.

The Hawks have defended Towns this season primarily with center Onyeka Okongwu, and Towns has been comfortable against the 240-pound center. In two games against the Hawks, he has averaged 28.5 points on 63 percent from the field and 13.5 rebounds.

Would the Hawks put star forward Jalen Johnson or one of their wings on Towns so Okongwu can play center field and muck up the paint?

Either way, Towns should have a matchup advantage and his ability to score either on the perimeter or in the paint should prove to be a regular theme in this series.

Swing shooter

In New York’s 108-105 win against the Hawks last week, the Knicks hid Towns on guard Dyson Daniels for much of the night. Daniels had a rough season from deep. After making 34 percent of his threes last season, the former Most Improved Player of the Year shot just 18.8 percent from deep on 117 attempts.

That creates a dilemma for the Hawks. The club needs Daniels on the floor. He has the toughest defensive assignment, guarding Knicks star Jalen Brunson. But his inept shooting could throw a wrench in Atlanta’s offensive gameplan.

Daniels ended the season shooting the ball better, going 10-for-24 (41.7 percent) from three over his last 10 games. How he starts the series from long distance could swing the series in either team’s favor.

Apr 6, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson (11) dribbles against Atlanta Hawks guard Dyson Daniels (5) during the first half at State Farm Arena.
Apr 6, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson (11) dribbles against Atlanta Hawks guard Dyson Daniels (5) during the first half at State Farm Arena. / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Guarding the three-ball

All season long, New York’s three-point defense has been a talking point. The Knicks gave up the fifth most three-point attempts to opponents per 100 possessions. They were also 20th in opponent three-point percentage.

New York’s three-point defense will face its first test against the Hawks. Atlanta was fifth in three-point shooting percentage (37.1 percent) in the NBA this season.

Though Daniels has been a suspect shooter, Atlanta has several dangerous perimeter options on the roster. Nickeil Alexander-Walker was fourth in the NBA with 251 three-pointers made. Okongwu connected on 37.6 percent of his 383 three-point attempts. Veteran C.J. McCollum (35.7 percent) is capable as well. Corey Kispert and Buddy Hield also offer three-point shooting from the fringes of Atlanta’s rotation.

Slowing down Jalen Johnson

A central reason for Atlanta’s hot finish to the season was the emergence of Johnson. The 24-year old All-Star was a stat-stuffer as he led the club in scoring (22.5 points), rebounding (10.3) and assists (7.9).

Johnson thrives in the open court. When Atlanta gets in transition, Johnson can run the floor, or set up his teammates with open looks. He will also likely hunt some of New York’s smaller guards like Brunson, Miles McBride, and Landry Shamet in inverted pick-and-roll situations.

Josh Hart guarded Johnson for much of last week’s win against the Hawks. But expect New York’s other wings Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby to guard Johnson. Not an elite shooter (35.2 percent on 341 three-point attempts), the Knicks can slow down the forward by keeping the game in the half court and preventing easy drives.

Controlling the glass and tempo

One of New York’s advantages against almost every opponent is Mitchell Robinson. New York’s reserve 7-footer is arguably the best offensive rebounder in the NBA, and he has a significant physical advantage in this series.

The Hawks are a small team. Okongwu is 6-10 but just 240 lbs. Johnson is listed at 210 lbs. Off the bench, the Hawks have lithe 6-11 forward Mouhamed Gueye and 6-11 center Jock Landale who can mix it up in the paint, but his status for the series will be up in the air after he suffered a high ankle sprain earlier in April.

That leaves a major opportunity for Robinson to dominate in the paint either against smaller players or limited reserves like recent Hawks free agent signing Tony Bradley. As mentioned before, the Hawks were fifth in pace. But if they can’t secure rebounds, it will be hard to push the ball, which will benefit the Knicks.

Red Sox first baseman Willson Contreras leads the league in HBP

ST LOUIS, MISSOURI - APRIL 11: Willson Contreras #40 of the Boston Red Sox reacts after getting hit by a pitch against the St. Louis Cardinals in the second inning at Busch Stadium on April 11, 2026 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) | Getty Images

When Mick Abel hit Willson Contreras, the first baseman joined Yandy Diaz, Dillon Dingler, Connor Nordy, and Isaac Paredes to lead all of MLB with four hit by pitches. So far in the season, Contreras has been hit once each by the Reds, Brewers, Cardinals, and Twins.

Contreras has had a mixed bag with HBPs. In his first season with the Cubs he was hit 4 times in 283 plate appearances (76 games) Then 3 times in 428 plate appearances (117 games). Nothing too interesting.

In 2018 he recorded his highest playing time total until the 2025 season: 544 plate appearances (138 games). And he’s up to 13 HBP.

Drops down to 9 the next season in 409 PAs (105 games).

And that’s where the story starts to get interesting.

In 2020, in 225 plate appearances (57 games in the short season) he was hit 14 times!

Then he was hit another 14 times in 2021 in 483 plate appearances (128 games). More than double the games but the same number of times hit.

You can watch these over and over and over. He’s taking pitches off that front arm. Is he leaning into it? I mean, maybe? He does often turn the shoulder but that’s also what you see guys evading the ball do.

We’ll keep going.

In 2022, his final season in Chicago, Contreras was his 24 times. Not leading the league but adding 10 to his previous personal…best. The Brewers hit him 3 times that year. As did the Reds, Pirates, and Cardinals (two in one game!). The only AL team to hit him? The Yankees.

He decides to replace Yadier Molina in St. Louis and spare himself a few HBPs. And he drops to 13 (495 PAs, 125 games) and 12 (358 PSs, 84 games) in his first two years in Missouri. With one season injury-shortened though, you can guess what is coming next. 23 HBP! In 2025, his final season in St. Louis, we see the future Red Sox first baseman take 23 pitches off his body. 563 PAs, 135 games.

Interestingly, in 2025 the Red Sox hit him twice. And he was then traded there. So that at least follows his own choice to sign in St. Louis after taking a few off the “chin.”

Red Sox fans have gotten to see some of the classics too. The teams that hit him a lot — which is partially due to playing time because they’re NL Central teams and his career was spent in the NL Central until 2026. But also The Brewers hit him 4 times last year.

In the opening series there’s a very typical shoulder move.

March 28th, 2026:

Then there was a but of an incident with the Brewers. He really thinks that one was on purpose. Right? He looks mad. And this one is more of the scraper type of HBP than his classic shoulder bruise. This is grazing the hand. Was this avoidable, or at least moreso than others?

April 6th, 2026:

In his return to St. Louis it’s a quick reception and then a pretty solid plunking. And remember he played with Kyle Leahy. This is a former teammate. Famously, the pitcher of St. Louis didn’t care for Contreras as a catcher. But this is a pretty standard (for him) pitch to the arm. He wears an elbow guard. He’s ready for these.

April 11, 2026:

Right now, depending on playing time, Contreras could be heading for a new HBP record. But he’s quickly running out of NL Central games and opponents. The teams that know him. The teams that might really dislike him. So maybe it’ll turn out that his shoulder was a nice target for guys who wanted to settle a grudge. Or is it his OBP secret sauce?

Thoughts on a 2-1 Rangers loss

Apr 14, 2026; West Sacramento, California, USA; Texas Rangers pitcher Luis Curvelo (57) is removed from the game after suffering an injury against the Athletics during the seventh inning at Sutter Health Park. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Lee-Imagn Images | Dennis Lee-Imagn Images

A’s 2, Rangers 1

  • One step forward, one step back for the Ranger offense.
  • On the heels of an eight run outburst against the hated A’s on Monday, the Rangers followed that up with one run and four hits on Tuesday.
  • But first things first. The pitching.
  • MacKenzie Gore’s fourth outing for the Texas Rangers was a reminder as to why he was able to be acquired for a quantity-over-quality prospect package. The broadcast has touted Gore as a legitimate top of the rotation starter — Dave Raymond referred to him early in this game as “an ace on a team with two veteran #1s” — and the potential is definitely there.
  • But Gore’s inconsistency and spates of wildness have held him back during his career, and we saw that on Tuesday.
  • Things started calmly enough. Gore started things off with a three pitch strikeout of Shea Langeliers as part of a 1-2-3 first. A leadoff walk in the second to Tyler Soderstrom was erased by a Max Muncy GIDP, and after retiring the first two batters in the third, Gore had faced the minimum and just needed to retired ninth place hitter Denzel Clarke for another 1-2-3 inning.
  • Things went sideways from there, though. Clarke doubled, and then a four pitch walk to Langeliers was followed by a five pitch walk to Nick Kurtz, loading the bases. A line drive single by Jacob Wilson brought home two A’s runs before Gore got out of the inning by getting Soderstrom to ground out on the seventh pitch of that at bat.
  • Though that Wilson single plated the only two A’s runs in the game, Gore never really got back on track after that. He got himself in trouble to start the fourth with a five pitch walk to Muncy and a four pitch walk to Austin Wynns. A sac bunt, a 6-2 out at home, and a Clarke K got him out of the inning unscathed. Gore couldn’t make it out of the fifth, however, as a K-single-K sequence was followed up by an eight pitch walk to Soderstrom, ending Gore’s day
  • Gore only allowed three hits, but he issued six walks, tying his career high for walks in a game. He also needed 94 pitches to get through just 22 batters while getting just seven swings and misses.
  • To his credit, Gore did a good job minimizing damage, and put the Rangers in a position where they could have won the game had the offense not taken a powder. But this is the sort of performance that has me thinking we should tap the brakes on anointing Gore as an ace.
  • The good news from the pitching front was that Robert Garcia gave the Rangers 1.2 scoreless innings, with three Ks and a walk, and Tyler Alexander struck out two in getting the final four outs of the game.
  • The bad news from the pitching front is that two Rangers pitchers left the game due to physical issues. Chris Martin came in in relief of Gore in the fifth, got Muncy to strike out, but then didn’t come out for the sixth due to arm soreness. Luis Curvelo, meanwhile, had to come out after two pitches, the second of which was way wild and was followed by him throwing his glove and grabbing his right arm. It looked serious, and post-game it was reported it was a biceps issue, though Skip Schumaker said Curvelo felt fine after the game.
  • So we are in wait and see mode in regards to 25% of the Ranger bullpen. The Curvelo ailment could just have been a cramp or something similar that turns out to be a non-issue going forward, or it could not be.
  • As for Martin, the Rangers have used him judiciously of late — he hasn’t pitched in back-to-back games since games 2 and 3 of the season, and he was making his third straight appearance when he was working on two days rest. The injury issues Martin dealt with last year make you concerned about how much he can be relied upon in 2026. Between the arm soreness and the rough start to the season, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Rangers erred on the side of caution and put Martin on the 15 day injured list.
  • As for the offense, they were once more stymied by a lefthanded starter. The Rangers scored a run in the first on a Brandon Nimmo leadoff double and a Jake Burger single. They got just two more hits the rest of the game — a Danny Jansen leadoff single in the fifth, and a Josh Jung one out double in the seventh.
  • In fairness, Andrew McCutchen was robbed of a homer in the fourth, with Denzel Clarke making a leaping grab at the wall to save what would have been a game-tying bomb.
  • So far this season, the Rangers are slashing .250/.323/.422 against righthanded pitchers and .185/.243/.280 against lefties.
  • MacKenzie Gore’s fastball reached 97.6 mph, averaging 95.8 mph. Chris Martin threw one fastball, at 95.7 mph. Robert Garcia’s fastball touched 96.2 mph. Tyler Alexander hit 93.3 mph with his fastball.
  • Brandon Nimmo’s first inning double was 106.4 mph. Jake Burger had a 101.1 mph line out. The should’ve been home run stolen from Andrew McCutchen was 100.9 mph.
  • Onwards and upwards.

Maple Leafs vs Senators Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s NHL Game

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

What a difference a year makes.

The Toronto Maple Leafs sent the Ottawa Senators packing last spring in the first round of the playoffs, and now Toronto will call it a season following its game against Ottawa at the Canadian Tire Centre on Wednesday, April 15.

Here are my top Maple Leafs vs. Senators predictions and NHL picks for their season finale tonight. 

Maple Leafs vs Senators prediction

Maple Leafs vs Senators best bet: Senators -1.5 (+135)

The Ottawa Senators rested regulars during Sunday’s overtime loss, so I’m anticipating Wednesday’s tilt against the Toronto Maple Leafs to serve as a postseason tune-up.

Ottawa No. 1 goaltender Linus Ullmark has been solid down the stretch with seven wins, a .909 save percentage, and 7.21 goals saved above expected across his past 10 starts, and the Sens have beaten the Maple Leafs 5-2 in both prior meetings this season.

Toronto has also dropped six straight and has only covered the puck line in 11 of its past 25 games (-10.75 Units / -27% ROI).

Maple Leafs vs Senators same-game parlay

Ullmark’s highlighted strong stretch includes going 5-1-1 at home with a 2.26 GAA, and the Sens have also allowed the fewest expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 at the Canadian Tire Centre. 

As a result, I’m anticipating Ottawa to batten down the defensive hatches again to do the heavy lifting in keeping this total Under the number.

Turning to the final leg of this same-game parlay, Toronto winger William Nylander has recorded three or more shots in five of his past seven games, for 25 on 51 attempts while logging a monster 21:32 of ice time per night. 

Maple Leafs vs Senators SGP

  • Senators -1.5
  • Under 6.5
  • William Nylander Over 2.5 shots

Maple Leafs vs Senators odds

  • Moneyline: Maple Leafs +155 | Senators -180
  • Puck Line: Maple Leafs +1.5 (-155) | Senators -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-105) | Under 6.5 (-115)

Maple Leafs vs Senators trend

The Toronto Maple Leafs have only covered the puck line in 11 of their last 25 games (-10.75 Units / -27% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Senators.

How to watch Maple Leafs vs Senators

LocationCanadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, ON
DateWednesday, April 15, 2026
Puck drop7:30 p.m. ET
TVSportsnet

Maple Leafs vs Senators latest injuries

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Jarren Duran makes obscene gesture at fan who 'told me to kill myself'

Boston Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran made an obscene gesture to a fan during the fifth inning against the Minnesota Twins on Tuesday, April 14, flipping off a fan as he jogged back to the dugout at Target Field.

Duran said the fan made a comment that crossed the line.

"Somebody just told me to kill myself," Duran told reporters after the game. "I'm used to it at this point, you know? I mean, I'm going to flip somebody off if they say something to me, but it is what it is. I shouldn't react like that, but that kind of stuff is still kind of triggering."

Duran has been candid about his mental health struggles, revealing in a 2025 Netflix documentary about the Red Sox that his on-field difficulties during the 2021 and 2022 seasons led him to a dark place where he contemplated and attempted suicide.

The incident on Tuesday is not the first time Duran has had a run-in with a fan over the subject. Earlier this season, a Cleveland fan made an inappropriate comment referencing his mental health struggles in the middle of the seventh inning and was ejected from the game.

"Honestly, it's my fault for talking about my mental health because I kind of brought in the haters. So I've just got to get used to it," Duran said. "I was just trying to hold it in and not really bring that up to the team. I mean, we're trying to win a game. I shouldn't even bring that up to anybody. It just happens."

Red Sox manager Alex Cora said he had not seen the gesture or any video of it. Duran finished hitless in four at-bats against the Twins and the Red Sox fell to 6-11 on the season with the loss.

If you or someone you know may be struggling with suicidal thoughts, you can call the U.S. National Suicide Prevention Lifeline at 800-273-TALK (8255) any time day or night, or chat online.

Crisis Text Line also provides free, 24/7, confidential support via text message to people in crisis when they dial 741741.

This story was updated to change a video.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Jarren Duran makes obscene gesture after fan's offensive comment

Getting to know the Flyers: How Philadelphia got to the playoffs

SALT LAKE CITY, UT - JANUARY 21: Head Coach Rick Tocchet of the Philadelphia Flyers talks on the bench during the second period of their game against the Utah Mammoth at the Delta Center on January 21, 2026 in Salt Lake City, Utah. (Photo by Chris Gardner/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The Flyers ended a full-season six-year playoff drought and will play in the playoffs for the first time since 2018, where they lost to the Penguins in the first round. Simply getting back to the postseason is quite the accomplishment based on the past month when Philadelphia was sitting in sixth place in the division behind Washington, Columbus and the NYI Islanders on March 10th and well behind the playoff line.

Here’s a little more under the hood for the team from Hockeystats.com:

The biggest change from this season compared to last year is that the Flyers are out-scoring the opposition 163-149 at 5v5 in 2025-26. Last year that was at an ugly 166-195 deficit. That’s visible as the white bar in the top-right portion of the above graphic taking a dramatic turn upwards in the last season.

In that way, the two PA teams are alike in that new coaches helped change things up and spur improvement at 5v5. The Penguins were down at a 157-195 combined 5v5 score in 2024-25 that improved all the way up to 196-168 this season prior to last night’s game.

For the Flyers, defense has been the name of the game – doing well to limit expected and actual goals against at 5v5. Curiously that hasn’t applied to special teams where their PK is below average (and the power play is dreadful). Their overall goalie rating has been brought down by backup Samuel Ersson having one of the worst seasons at his position in the league this year, starter Dan Vladar has played to a much higher level, as profiled yesterday.

One of the Flyers’ best attributes which helped them get to the playoffs but won’t be of any use now was the ability to extend games to overtime. Philadelphia went 6-8 in games decided in 3v3 OT sessions and then did even better with a 10-4 record in games decided by the shootout gimmick to award an extra point. Part of Philly’s success (which, hey, credit to them for doing it) was simply having 28 out of the 82 games (34% of the season) go into gimmicky 3v3/penalty shot hockey, where they took an overall 14-12 record to find enough points to qualify for the playoffs despite having only 26 regulation wins — the third fewest RW in the 16-team Eastern Conference. The Flyers are just 27-27 in games decided in regulation, which might key some into the low win total but it’s also important to note it’s been difficult to put Philadelphia down within 60 minutes.

While the Flyers won’t get the benefit of having a shootout decide the outcome of an NHL playoff game to pad win totals, one area to consider as a potential positive is that the frequency of games played shows this team is used to being in closely contested games. They’re used to the pressure of playing in games where the score is tied and mistakes are heightened and probably won’t be panicking if the games don’t start out well. That should be second nature for them by now, given that they only rank 22nd in time spent ahead in games.

The Flyers aren’t usually a ‘take the lead, ride to a win’ type of team. They often have to claw back, in games as they did in the season in general from being in sixth place on March 10th. The Flyers have only scored the first goal in 32 games this season (tied for lowest in the NHL prior to yesterday). Falling in a hole by giving up the first goal hasn’t made a major difference, Philadelphia still has a .400 winning% (6th best in league) and 20-22-8 record when they fall behind in games 1-0. On contrast, the Penguins only have a .286 w% with a 10-18-7 record when they give up the first goal in a game this season. The Flyers are certainly a scrappy team that is used to not holding leads and having to keep working to try and make sure the score is at least tied up at the end of 60 minutes, which could present an interesting and unique challenge for a Pittsburgh team that has had many troubles this season converting leads into wins at times.

As of today, the Flyers aren’t a great team. There’s a reasonable case that they are at the bottom of the playoff teams in the East as far as strength goes. They didn’t win a lot in regulation. All of those items are true but that doesn’t necessarily mean an easy series is ahead for the Penguins. Philadelphia has been a strong team over the last month, building in confidence as they go. The Pennsylvania rivalry always brings out heated emotions and is prone to huge swings of games rocking from big leads by one team turned into a furious comeback by the other. On paper, you’d probably have to like the Pens chances, but their opponent is coming into this series with nothing to lose and a lot to prove. That should make for another worthy chapter to the storied history of the Penguin/Flyer rivalry.