After three consecutive postseason misses, Pittsburgh Penguins POHO and GM Kyle Dubas made it pretty clear in his postseason press conference on Apr. 21 that he will mainly put his focus on the RFA and trade markets this summer as his team transitions through a rebuild.
But there's one analyst who thinks the Penguins could possibly swing bigger on July 1.
In an appearance on the Pat McAfee show, NHL analyst and former player Paul Bissonnette was discussing what Pittsburgh's summer could potentially look like. And there was one big-name free agent he brought up as a story to watch.
“One that probably sticks out is Mitch Marner," Bissonnette said. "Hasn’t signed yet,” Bissonnette said. “He’s a Toronto Maple Leaf. Kyle Dubas loves Mitch Marner. He was with him in Toronto.
”There’s a little hostility between the Maple Leafs and Marner, based on the fact that they tried to trade him at the deadline for Mikko Rantanen, who was available. And they were willing to part ways with Mitch Marner, even though he had a 100-point season.”
Regardless of whether or not the Penguins decide to involve themselves when the time comes, the story around Marner is going to be interesting, to say the least.
Marner, 27, is set for a big pay raise on July 1, which will come in the form of either an extension with the Toronto Maple Leafs or a free agent contract elsewhere. Rantanen set the precedent for the market when he signed an eight-year, $96 million contract extension after being traded to the Dallas Stars, which averages out to $12 million per year.
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Rantanen’s time with the Carolina Hurricanes ends after 42 days. His time with the Dallas Stars is expected to be much, much longer.
Yes, that $12 million AAV is a good baseline when projecting what Marner's next contract would look like, especially if it comes in the form of an extension with Toronto. But given the bidding war that would likely ensue if Marner elects to head to unrestricted free agency, he could command even more than that - potentially, in the range of $14 or $15 million.
Truth be told - even with the rising cap - that puts a lot of teams out of the conversation. Even Toronto will have some decisions to make in order to extend Marner, as Matthew Knies is a pending-RFA and veteran John Tavares is a pending-UFA - both of whom should command pretty significant dollars. And they'll still need to fill out the depth on their roster, too.
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So where does this leave the Penguins?
Well, for one, it's worth noting that Dubas has pretty much said that the Penguins wouldn't be focusing on the UFA market this summer. He said that with the rising cap, the dollars allocated to signing elite players - and older ones, at that - add up pretty quickly.
"I think the effect in free agency is probably going to be somewhat of a spike in salary, and so it’ll dry up the cap space rather quickly for us, and those players are mostly into that late-20 to early-30 category," Dubas said. "I think it's going to allow us to maybe trade for players that other teams can't afford that are restricted free agents, and then sign them longer range ourselves, using that cap space that way.
"So, you're signing a player that's 23-24 for seven or eight years versus going into free agency for someone who's 27 to 32 and getting them for seven years."
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Makes sense, right? For a team in the Penguins' situation, absolutely. As of now, the Penguins are projected to have just over $23 million in cap space, and if they truly want to target players in the RFA market, signing Marner for $14 million would severely limit their ability to do so.
However, something else to consider is that the cap is going up significantly year-by-year, and the Penguins have no obligations to long-term extensions currently on their roster. A lot will change before then, but as of now, they are projected to have $54.75 million in cap space during the 2026-27 season and $87.4 million the season after.
They also have a few players on their roster - guys such as Erik Karlsson, Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell, and Tristan Jarry - who eat up chunks of their cap and may or may not be moved this summer, which would, presumably, open up more cap space and give them the freedom to dabble in both the UFA and RFA markets.
Getting ahead of signing someone like Marner might not be the worst thing when shedding a light on those factors, as free agents are only going to get more and more expensive year over year, and the Penguins actually have the space to afford something like that down the line.
And - unlike in the RFA market - the Penguins wouldn't have to give up any significant assets in terms of prospects and draft capital to simply sign someone who can help them in the near- and long-term.
It's unclear what path the Penguins plan to take next season. They could tank for Gavin McKenna, but the risk in doing that is that several other teams across the NHL - such as the Boston Bruins, Chicago Blackhawks, Seattle Kraken, Philadelphia Flyers, and Anaheim Ducks - are better-positioned to do that because they lack some of the high-end talent on their roster that the Penguins have.
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What's more likely is that they will neither intentionally tank or intentionally try, and they will end up finishing right around where they did this season - within the top-10 in draft order. If that's the case, there's no real hurt in at least exploring the market for Marner, as he alone is unlikely to change their fortunes in any significant way, anyway.
Regardless, it should be interesting. And even Bissonnette threw some caution at the wind when discussing the possibility of Marner and Dubas reuniting in Pittsburgh.
"I think it's going to take them at least two or three years to get good again," Bissonnette said. "I'd be shocked if they made the playoffs next year unless they do what [the Washington Capitals] did in the offseason and have a complete home run as far as free agent signings.
"If Mitch Marner ends up there, and you're paying him $14 million, and all of a sudden, all you have is $12 [million] left over... it's hard to address other areas."
More than likely, Marner is donning a Maple Leafs sweater to kick off the 2025-26 season. But if he does elect to test the free agent waters, don't be overly surprised if an old friend decides to, at least, make a phone call.
Mitch (Marner) Really Held The Fort For Us": Leafs GM Gives Strong Vote Of Confidence In Marner Ahead Of PlayoffsMitch Marner's performance in the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs could ultimately define his future with the Toronto Maple Leafs. If the Toronto Maple Leafs are to have any success during their 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs, their top stars are going to have to perform and Mitch Marner is certainly no exception.
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