When Mets ace Kodai Senga crumpled to the grass in the sixth inning on Thursday after snagging an errant throw from Pete Alonso on a play at first base, it was understandable that some immediately saw a parallel between the current situation and what happened last season.
Last July 26, in what was his first start of the season after battling back from injuries -- and while in the midst of twirling a gem against the Braves -- Senga suffered a serious calf injury while breaking off the mound.
That injury ended his regular season, and left him searching for his best stuff in the couple of surprise postseason appearances he made.
But aside from the sight of Senga in pain on the field, there really isn't much of a comparison between what happened last year and what happened on Thursday -- not when it comes to the potential fallout and impact.
First, the injury Senga suffered on Thursday will not be ending his regular season. An MRI will reveal the severity and his timeline to return, but this is not a catastrophic situation for him.
Second, the Mets have two other starters -- Clay Holmes and David Peterson -- who are pitching like top of the rotation arms, which should blunt the loss a bit.
Third, the 2025 Mets are not the 2024 Mets. This version has a 45-24 record, which is the best mark in baseball. Losing Senga, whose 1.47 ERA leads the sport, sucks. But the team is a well-oiled machine with a strong pitching staff that will keep chugging along.
Fourth, and most importantly, the Mets have more than enough starting pitching depth to withstand this.
Remember that, in the hours before Senga went down, there was a report that the Mets were getting trade inquiries about Paul Blackburn, a starting pitcher who is currently in the bullpen.
Beyond that was the question of what the team was going to do when Frankie Montas (in about a week or so) and Sean Manaea (in a few weeks) return.
The expectation was that before the end of June, the Mets would have eight big league starting pitchers for five spots.
Now, the expectation is that they'll have seven big league starters for five spots.
That is because the team is not currently planning to utilize a regular six-man rotation, instead resorting to it only when they're in the midst of lots of games in a row without a day off.
As things currently stand, this is what the Mets' rotation is likely to look like the next turn through:
Clay Holmes
Tylor Megill
Griffin Canning
David Peterson
Paul Blackburn
After that, Montas should be back, at which point the Mets could shift Blackburn back to the bullpen.
Once Manaea returns, and if everyone else remains healthy, the decision will be more difficult. But the Mets will be adding another ace-level pitcher to their staff to help offset the absence of Senga.
The easiest decision at that point could be either shifting Megill to the bullpen -- since he has minor league options remaining -- or sending him to Triple-A Syracuse (as unfair as that might be, given how he's pitched).
Then the Mets will await Senga's return.
Left unsaid so far? What New York has percolating pitching-wise in the upper levels of the minors.
At the very top of the list is Nolan McLean, who has a 1.98 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 59.0 innings across 11 games this season for Double-A Binghamton and Triple-A Syracuse.
It's fair to believe McLean would be the first pitcher up if the Mets found themselves with a long-term need in the rotation.
Then there's Brandon Sproat, who is starting to find his footing in Triple-A, allowing just seven runs over his last four starts spanning 21.1 innings.
Blade Tidwell is also in Triple-A, and made his big league debut earlier this season in a spot start. Like Sproat, Tidwell is finding his groove, allowing just 12 runs in his last six games -- a span of 31.2 innings.
The wild card here is Jonah Tong, who has been laying waste to opposing batters in Double-A, where he has a 1.99 ERA in 54.1 innings. He has allowed just 27 hits and struck out 91 -- a rate of 15.1 per nine.
Tong should be in Triple-A sooner rather than later, at which point he could quickly become a big league option.
But the main point here is that all of these minor leaguers, as high as their upside is, are currently a bit of an afterthought as it pertains to the big league rotation. That's a great problem to have.
Also a great problem to have? The fact that the Mets will still very likely have tough decisions to make about who to remove from the rotation in the coming weeks.
As we saw on Thursday, injuries happen and things change. But the Mets are well equipped to take some hits.
Kurt Helin
