
One of the more fascinating parts of statistics is that they give us the opportunity to prove or disprove the veracity of what we are seeing and experiencing. Games like last night come immediately to the forefront. The Astros load the bases twice in the first two innings with a combined one out and come up with only one run. It often feels like the Astros leave a small village on base. That speaks to offensive efficiency and we have covered that ground before.
It wouldn’t surprise anyone to see that the Astros efficiency rating has gone up this year as they have scored more runs and generally had more offensive success. Their success has also been impressive relative to the rest of the American League. Obviously, most of the function of run scoring is a representation of how many base runners you have. We have to track that to track offensive efficiency. However, over the course of a full season, offensive efficiency (or lack thereof) can account for up to five wins worth of runs.
What we do in this piece is break down one piece of efficiency as we try to determine which factors correlate with offensive efficiency most strongly. Since it has been awhile since we have seen these numbers a quick tutorial is in order. You simply add up hits, walks, and hit by pitches and divide total runs into that. That gives you a number that looks like an OBP. That is a team’s offensive efficiency.
| Runs | Hits | Walks | HBP | Total | EFF | |
| White Sox | 561 | 936 | 401 | 71 | 1408 | .398 |
| Yankees | 535 | 908 | 437 | 27 | 1372 | .390 |
| Twins | 564 | 994 | 398 | 66 | 1458 | .387 |
| Astros | 557 | 996 | 410 | 59 | 1465 | .380 |
| Tigers | 545 | 978 | 426 | 45 | 1449 | .376 |
| Orioles | 538 | 937 | 463 | 44 | 1444 | .373 |
| Red Sox | 527 | 985 | 374 | 70 | 1429 | .369 |
| Rays | 541 | 1034 | 390 | 45 | 1469 | .368 |
| Athletics | 520 | 992 | 395 | 53 | 1440 | .361 |
| Royals | 501 | 989 | 374 | 42 | 1405 | .357 |
| Angels | 488 | 941 | 379 | 67 | 1387 | .352 |
| Rangers | 495 | 972 | 387 | 55 | 1414 | .350 |
| Blue Jays | 476 | 986 | 330 | 45 | 1361 | .350 |
| Guardians | 477 | 926 | 440 | 41 | 1407 | .339 |
| Mariners | 463 | 902 | 390 | 73 | 1365 | .339 |
The other good thing about looking at numbers is that there is always more than one way to interpret them. The Astros are third in runs scored and fourth in offensive efficiency in the American League. That means they are doing well right? Well, there is always another way of looking at the numbers. The Astros are second in AL in total base runners, so in theory they should be second in runs scored.
They trail the White Sox by four total runs, so it isn’t like they are lagging by a ton. In the sabermetric world it might be equivalent to a win. Of course, we know how important one additional win and one fewer loss is at this point of the season. That was also true last season when the team’s offensive efficiency numbers were seriously lagging.
However, in this piece we are going to make one minor adjustment to the numbers above. We are simply going to remove home runs. In essence, that means we remove home runs from both the total base runners category and runs scored categories. This will give us a better feel of what the club does with runners on base and we should see an impact on efficiency. If it is a dramatic impact then we probably have a pretty strong correlation with offensive efficiency.
| HR | Adj Runs | Adj BR | Adj Eff | |
| White Sox | 155 | 409 | 1253 | .326 |
| Yankees | 167 | 368 | 1205 | .305 |
| Twins | 143 | 421 | 1315 | .320 |
| Astros | 162 | 395 | 1303 | .303 |
| Tigers | 144 | 401 | 1305 | .307 |
| Orioles | 141 | 397 | 1303 | .305 |
| Red Sox | 120 | 407 | 1309 | .311 |
| Rays | 127 | 414 | 1342 | .308 |
| Athletics | 141 | 379 | 1299 | .292 |
| Royals | 122 | 379 | 1283 | .295 |
| Angels | 124 | 364 | 1263 | .288 |
| Rangers | 135 | 360 | 1279 | .281 |
| Blue Jays | 115 | 361 | 1246 | .290 |
| Guardians | 116 | 361 | 1291 | .280 |
| Mariners | 138 | 325 | 1227 | .265 |
The first thing I should do is clean up a little in how we set up the table. I listed the teams in the same order on purpose. It highlights the dramatic impact that home runs can have on offensive efficiency. The Astros are second in the American League in home runs. Sure, that could mostly be Yordan, but it is still the single biggest difference between the offense this season and last season. We are currently on pace to fly by 200 home runs for the season.
Notice how dramatically these numbers fell across the board. The Astros go from fourth in offensive efficiency to eighth when we account for home runs. One of the first rules in social science is that we don’t ever attribute causation. Home runs don’t cause efficiency overall. However, it is the most efficient way to produce a run in baseball. So, it shouldn’t be a surprise that we see such dramatic results when accounting for home runs.
That leaves us with two immediate thoughts. First, we can look at the efficiency of this offense as compared to last season by removing home runs. Is this team really any better than they were a year at hitting in the clutch? Secondly, seeing these numbers out in the open can also impact how teams are built. If we know that home runs are a primary driver of efficiency we can prioritize getting home runs on offense and preventing home runs on defense.
| HR | Adj Runs | Adj BR | Adj Eff | |
| 2025 | 182 | 504 | 1732 | .291 |
| 2026 | 162 | 395 | 1303 | .303 |
So, this team is legitimately more clutch than they were a season ago. We can give a hat tip to these hitting coaches in addition to Yordan Alvarez. It might not seem like much, but if the Astros had the same efficiency last season independent of home runs they would have scored an addition 21 runs. That is equivalent to two wins and that would have gotten them to October.
We should remember this the next time we complain about excessive base runners being left on base. This team is right around where it should be in terms of getting runs across the pay station. They could always be more efficient, but as we saw last season, they could easily be less efficient. In the meantime, if we ever wonder why power is so prioritized then this is one very significant reason why.










