As stolen bases continue to rise league wide, I will be here every Wednesday to help you track important stolen base trends so you can find more speed for your fantasy teams.
Stealing a base is as much about the opposing pitcher and catcher as it is the actual base runner themself. So, being able to spot which teams and pitchers specifically are being run on most frequently will help you to figure out who can swipe some bags over the next week.
Last week,I mentioned that stolen bases had trended down over the prior seven days. Well, they were low again this week. Not quite as low, but the 104 steals were the second-lowest in a week all season, only more than the 99 from the week before.
We’ve dealt with some extreme heat across most of the country lately. Perhaps that is leading to some more tired legs.
Eric SamulskiBefore we get to this week’s important trends, here is the stolen base leaderboard over the past seven days.
Hello Ronald Acuña Jr. After swiping one base in his first 24 games since returning from his second torn ACL, he’s now stolen three over his last five without being caught. He’s blatantly been the best hitter in baseball since returning. Stealing bases again would be icing on the cake.
Also, pay attention to Tyler Freeman and Brady House. Both are playing everyday and their teams – the Rockies and Nationals – are so bad that they want to see what they have in them. So, they’ll probably keep running as long as they’re playing.
Now, here is the overall stolen base leaderboard on the season.
José Caballero remains atop the leaderboard. He may not play everyday, but is a weapon on the basepaths when he does. That can make him a bit of a headache to roster in weekly leagues and a potential league-winner in daily leagues.
Victor Scott II has been on base a bit more often lately. In turn, he’s also stealing more bases. If only he could steal first base too.
Next, here are some players that we’d hoped would be more aggressive or efficient on the base paths.
Luis Rengifo and/or Jacob Young might be on their way to the least efficient base stealing seasons of all time. It’s impressive how much they continue to run with such little success.
Shohei Ohtani only pacing for 20 or so stolen bases hurts his value a lot. If that’s his ceiling there while pitching – and he’s only still just building up – it will be nearly impossible to justify him as the number one overall pick in standard, weekly leagues next season.
Now, let’s go over the most important stolen base trends over the past week.
Fantasy Baseball Stolen Base Targets
The usual suspects – Marlins, Rockies, and Astros – each had solid weeks in terms of limiting the run game. So, we must look elsewhere for stolen base targets over the last seven days.
No team allowed more stolen bases last week than the Cardinals with eight. Three of those eight came in one game against the White Sox. Not coincidentally, that was their only game of the last seven where Iván Herrera started at catcher.
Herrera has been a revelation at the plate this season with a .320 batting average and .925 OPS through 42 games surrounding a trip to the injured list. At the same time, 15 bases have been stolen against him in just 13 starts behind the plate. He also hasn’t caught a single runner.
He’s hit so well and defended so poorly that he’d basically become the Cardinals’ every day designated hitter. That is, until a hamstring strain put him on the IL again just a few days ago.
Since he’s gone out, Nolan Gorman has started most games at DH and finally shown genuine signs of life. If Gorman is still hitting when Herrera returns in a few weeks, they’ll likely play him at catcher more often. That will open the door for tons of stolen bases against this team.
Otherwise, the Braves allowed the second most stolen bases of the week with six. That’s surprising, since they’ve saved their season by throttling the formerly first place Mets in five straight games.
Still, they’ve been susceptible in the run game all season and that’s mostly a symptom of Drake Baldwin’s breakout. He’s forced his way into a 50/50 timeshare with the incumbent Sean Murphy because he’s hit too well to come out of the lineup.
At the same time, he’s been poor behind the plate. Five of the six stolen bases the Braves allowed last week came with Baldwin catching. And, Murphy caught the only would-be base stealer.
Spencer Strider has also become a great pitcher to stream stolen bases against.
Three of those six steals came with him on the mound and the 13.9 feet he’s allowing on secondary leads is one of highest for any starting pitcher in the league. On one of those steals he gave up, Juan Soto simply took a running start to second while Strider was still in the stretch.
Keep an eye on Herrera’s return to the Cardinals plus Strider’s starts, especially when Baldwin is catching, to grab some easy stolen bases.
Chandler Simpson Back for Good?
Our long national nightmare is over. Chandler Simpson has been recalled back from Triple-A by the Rays.
His demotion a few weeks ago sent the fantasy baseball world into a frenzy after he swiped 19 bags in 35 games. At the same time, he struggled both at the plate and in the field, so it made sense for the Rays to give him a spell in the minors.
Now, he’s back. Kameron Misner was sent down in the corresponding move which seems to open a starting spot for Simpson.
Misner had been playing center field for the Rays most days and Simpson started there on Tuesday in his return. So, it looks like that could be his spot if he can handle it.
Jake Mangum is a capable center fielder as well, but has been playing left more often while stolen base king José Caballero mixes in at right against left-handed pitchers when Jose Lowe is on the bench and shortstop, where he splits time with Taylor Walls.
As usual, the Rays are certain to move most of these players around to fit their chess pieces together in the best way possible. Simpson looks to have a starting job at the moment, just don’t be surprised if he loses it should he struggle again.
Especially with both Richie Palacios and Ha-Seong Kim out on rehab assignments.
