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You knew this Cubs team wasn’t going to be in a hitting drought forever, and they chose one of the best times to come out of that slump, in front of a packed house on the South Side where close to half the crowd was Cubs fans.

The Cubs went out to an early lead, blew it, then put the game away with a four-run eighth inning and defeated the White Sox 10-5 in the opener of the Crosstown Classic.

The Cubs wasted no time getting on the board. With two out in the first, Alex Bregman singled and moved to second on a wild pitch by Sean Burke.

Ian Happ singled in Bregman [VIDEO].

Edward Cabrera had an easy first, then served up a home-run ball to Colson Montgomery leading off the second and the game was tied.

The Cubs took a 2-1 lead in the fourth. Happ led off with a single and one out later, Moisés Ballesteros singled him to third. Carson Kelly’s single scored Happ [VIDEO].

Pete Crow-Armstrong batted next [VIDEO].

There are a couple of issues here. First, PCA’s bunt was likely intended to squirt past Burke, and it didn’t. Second, if you’re going to bunt in that situation, you’ve got to have a better baserunner on third than Ballesteros.

The game thus went 2-1 into the fifth. Nico Hoerner led off with a single and scored on Michael Busch’s double to right [VIDEO].

That was not an easy pitch to hit. As you can see in the clip, it was inside, and Busch kind of yanked it down the line, a good piece of hitting. One out later. Happ walked. Seiya Suzuki then doubled, with Happ scoring [VIDEO].

The Cubs now have a three-run lead going to the bottom of the fifth and Cabrera is cruising. What could possibly…

Well, you know the answer if you saw the game. Cabrera got in trouble with walks, something that often plagued him in Miami. He walked the first two White Sox hitters in the fifth, then retired two in a row. One out from getting out of the inning, he served up a two-run double to Drew Romo that made it 4-3. Then Cabrera issued another walk, and that was it for him. Here’s more on all the Cabrera walks from BCB’s JohnW53:

Cabrera walked three batters in the fifth inning. He had walked no more than two in any of his previous five starts, spanning 29.2 innings. He went into yesterday averaging 2.9 walks per nine innings, the lowest in any of his six seasons. He averaged 6.0 in 2023, 4.7 in 2024 and 3.1 last year.

Ryan Rolison got out of the inning with a comebacker, so the Cubs had the lead going to the bottom of the sixth. But Miguel Vargas homered off Rolison leading off that inning and the game was tied.

Rolison then put runners on first and third with a single, walk and wild pitch and so Craig Counsell called on one of the relative newcomers to the pen, Trent Thornton, with nobody out.

Thornton was really good. He retired the next three hitters without incident and had a 1-2-3 seventh. Small sample size — only five innings — but Thornton has looked pretty good so far in a Cubs uniform, retiring 14 of 18 batters faced. Perhaps Jed Hoyer has found yet another useful reliever on the scrap heap.

Thornton had some defensive help from Nico [VIDEO].

While Thornton was doing all that, the Cubs had taken the lead back in the top of the seventh. Bregman singled with one out, and one out later moved to third on a single by Suzuki. Matt Shaw was sent up to bat for Ballesteros and was hit by the first pitch he saw, loading the bases.

Kelly singled in Bregman [VIDEO].

The bases remained loaded for PCA [VIDEO].

I suppose that was a reasonable send, with the team already up two runs and Shaw a good baserunner. But a perfect throw nailed Shaw at the plate.

The Cubs broke the game open in the eighth, thanks mostly to a very wild Jordan Hicks, who you likely remember from his days with the Cardinals. Dansby Swanson led off the inning with a double. He advanced to third on a ground out, then scored on this wild pitch [VIDEO].

Hicks then walked three of the next four Cubs, loading the bases with two out. Then he issued his fourth walk of the inning to Shaw, forcing in a run [VIDEO].

Now it’s 8-4 and the bases are still loaded. Kelly smashed his second RBI hit of the game, a two-run double [VIDEO].

Kelly had three hits on the night and drove in four.

Javier Assad was tasked with finishing up with a six-run lead. He made that five by serving up a leadoff homer to Jarred Kelenic in the ninth, but otherwise wrapped it up without incident. A one-out single in the ninth was erased by this game-ending double play [VIDEO].

The Cubs got the bats rolling big-time. Everyone in the starting lineup had a hit as part of the 14-hit attack. The Cubs also drew six walks and went 6-for-14 with RISP — and could have had a lot more runs, as they left 11 on base. But overall the Cubs hitting performed as we’d seen them most of the year before the first six games of the road trip, where they scored a total of 12 runs.

Here’s Nico on his evening and the team’s [VIDEO].

The Brewers and Cardinals also won Friday, so the Cubs’ lead in the NL Central remains 2.5 games over both those teams. A few final notes from John:

This was the 14th time in the Cubs’ 153-game regular-season rivalry against the White Sox that the Cubs reached double digits in runs.

They are 13-1 in the games: 6-0 at home 7-1 on the South Side. The only loss was by 17-13 on Aug. 27, 2021. The Cubs had won two more such games since then before Friday: 10-8 on the road in 2023 and 13-3 at home on May 16 of last season — one year ago Saturday.
…..
The four wild pitches by the White Sox were the most they have thrown in their 153-game rivalry with the Cubs. The Cubs threw four in a 10-8 victory on the South Side on Sept. 27, 2020.

Lastly, just for fun: Maybe the Cubs should wear the road blue alternate jerseys more often.

Blue alternate: 6-3
Road gray: 5-8

The Cubs will go for the series win Saturday evening on the South Side. Jameson Taillon will start for the Cubs and Davis Martin goes for the Sox. Game time is 6:10 p.m. CT and TV coverage will be via Marquee Sports Network (and CHSN and WCIU-Ch. 26 with the Sox announcers).

There is an old axiom around baseball that teams don’t pay attention to the standings until Memorial Day. That way, they don’t make rash decisions based on what amounts to a fraction of the season having gone by. The Phillies clearly did not do that, choosing to part ways with Rob Thomson in what I personally think is a large decision to be made before Memorial Day.

The standings though? Are you even looking at them yet?

For me, I know two things: the Braves are way out in front in the NL East and the Phillies are under .500. Other than that, I’m not sure I can tell you who any of the other division leaders even are right now. The Dodgers are, right? I know they’ve been playing poorly lately and have a currently sputtering offense, but they’re in the division lead, correct? If you gave me three guesses, I probably couldn’t tell you who is out in front in the AL Central, though that would be true if it were Memorial Day or Labor Day.

Some people are looking at them closely and kudos to them. After this gets posted, I’ll check, but probably not again until mid June.

The 2026 MLB Draft, where the Cardinals hold the 13th overall pick, will take place July 12-14, making it now less than two months away. With the college and high school regular seasons winding to a close, I thought now would be a good time to check in on who the Cardinals may be eyeing with their first pick. Before we run through a few player blurbs, I want to review Chaim Bloom’s strategy in Boston to see if there are any clues on how the draft may play out.

An important caveat: Chaim Bloom will not be solely (or even primarily) responsible for the top draft selection as Zach Mortimer and Randy Flores will lead the draft charge, but the POBO still sets the tone and has ultimate accountability within the organization. Two of the four top picks during Bloom’s Boston tenure were largely considered the best player available. Two were “reaches” for high school infielders that Boston signed to underslot deals to allow them to take more shots later in the draft.

In 2020, Chaim’s first year, the Red Sox drafted high school second baseman Nick Yorke (17th overall). At the time, this pick was seen as a surprise as Yorke was ranked as the 139th best draft prospect by MLB Pipeline. Yorke would ultimately be signed to an underslot deal allowing the Sox to give Blaze Jordan over $1M more than slot value. Yorke was a player the models loved (baseball models, not fashion) meaning the pick was more about his data and metrics than a pure scouting pick. 

In 2021, the Sox had the fourth overall pick and spent it on Marcelo Mayer. At the time, Mayer was ranked as the best draft prospect, so I do not think there is too much to glean from the selection other than taking the best player available, but it did make two straight high school infielders in a row. 

In 2022, the Red Sox again returned to the high school infielder ranks selecting Mikey Romero (24th overall), and again signed him to an underslot deal saving almost $700K. Just like in 2020, the Red Sox used savings from their first pick to sign an overslot player later in the draft when they gave Roman Anthony a $2.5M bonus in the second round (slot of $820K).

Finally in Bloom’s last draft with the Red Sox in 2023, they took a more conventional route with the 14th overall pick by selecting a college catcher, Kyle Teel. At the time of the draft, he was seen as the best player still on the board as a strong-armed catcher with a good hit tool. 

The Cardinals have the sixth-largest draft pool ($16.6M) thanks to their competitive balance picks, which will give them a lot of flexibility in the strategy they deploy. They can play it straight up and take the top player on their board or even use some over their bonus pool to try to float a higher-ranked talent down the board. If they don’t feel that there is a standout player available, we could definitely see an underslot deal cut to give the Cardinals even more flexibility to court top talent with their later-round picks.

If the Cardinals do decide to play it straight and take the best player available, which players could be in play at 13? 

Top 2026 Draft Prospects

I personally do not follow college or high school baseball religiously, but the draft is one of my favorite baseball days of the year, so I always do some last-second cramming on the top players. My annual tradition is to get overly attached to one player and then be disappointed with who the Cardinals select (JJ being the exception). 

I pulled together the latest player rankings from some of the major outlets to provide what should capture the general sentiment of how the industry views the top players in the draft. If you want to do some deeper research, here are the current rankings (free) from MLB, ESPN, and the Athletic. The below list is just a weighted average from the three outlets mentioned above. I did not include Baseball America since their content is behind a paywall, but it is, of course, exceptional as well.

Players Unlikely to be Available 

The consensus right now is that the top five players in this class are unlikely to slip far, but you never know, so we might as well include them.

1. Roch Cholowsky, SS, UCLA
Cholowsky has been the favorite to go number one overall for over a year, and that is still the case as most (all?) outlets have him ranked first in the class as a four or five tool shortstop. He is arguably about the same level of prospect Wetherholt was when he was drafted, which highlights how incredible it was that Wetherholt was available at seventh overall in that draft.

2. Vahn Lackey, C, Georgia Tech
Lackey has been one of the big risers in this class as he came into the season as a solid bat, good glove catcher projected to go in the mid-to-late first round. He has more than doubled his power output this year and jumped to a consensus top-five draft prospect.

3. Grady Emerson, SS, Fort Worth Christian HS (TX)
Emerson is the consensus best high school prospect in the class. Polished bat with power potential and expected to stick at shortstop. His scouting report reads like Kyle Tucker the hitter but with good infield defense! Regardless, he won’t fall to the Cardinals range.

4. Jackson Flora, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
Flora has a 60 grade fastball that has topped out at 100 mph and carries a 1.15 ERA at UCSB. He is definitely closer to the Liam Doyle tier of draft prospects than to Paul Skenes, but should be the first pitcher off the board.

5. Eric Booth Jr., CF, Oak Grove HS (MS)
Booth Jr. is described as having an “unconventional” swing by multiple outlets, but has top-of-the-scale athleticism and has 70-grade speed. His scouting reports make him sound like more of a project than you would expect with a top-five pick, but his ceiling is sky high.

Players Who Could Be in the Cardinals’ Range

After the top handful of prospects, there seems to be very little consensus on how to rank the next few tiers, making this class feel even more muddled than usual.

6. Drew Burress, CF, Georgia Tech
Burress is interesting because he is probably the first player on the list so far that has a chance of being available when the Cardinals pick at 13. He also has a wild profile. Listed at 5’9”, but supposedly shorter, he has a muscular frame and average to plus power. As a freshman at Georgia Tech, he blasted 25 home runs but has followed it up with 19 and 13 (so far) in his next two seasons. Because of his great track record, he is seen as one of the safer college bats in the draft, so he is a long shot to get to the Cardinals pick.

7. Justin Lebron, SS, Alabama
Lebron is the first real “faller” on this list as he came into the season ranked in the top three and was the favorite to go number one overall at different points in his college career. He is the classic four-tool player that has shown everything but the ability to make consistent contact. His strikeout rate has been around 20% in college, which is pretty high for a top draft prospect. Some mock drafts have him falling all the way to the middle or later first round. I prefer players with an excellent hit tool, but Lebron is one of the highest upside players in the draft and could very well be there when the Cardinals pick.

8. Liam Peterson, RHP, Florida
Peterson has some of the best stuff among the college pitching prospects, but his command has not progressed enough to push him into the elite prospect tier. He walked 6.29 batters per nine as a freshman and has been in the 4s the next two years while putting up identical 4.28 ERAs each season. The stats don’t scream first-round pick, but with a plus to double-plus slider and a fastball that reaches the upper 90s, there is plenty to like here.

9. Jacob Lombard, SS, Gulliver HS (FL)
Lombard is a toolsy player with some questions about his hit tool. This ranking seems to undersell where he is expected to go in the draft as recent mocks have him going much higher. Lombard is a 65 or 70 grade runner, super athletic, and projects to stick at shortstop.

10. Chris Hacopian, SS, Texas A&M
If you squint extremely hard, maybe you can see a little JJ Wetherholt in Hacopian’s profile. He had an electric sophomore season at Maryland posting a .375/.502/.656 stat line. He has battled injuries this season after transferring to Texas A&M in the SEC, but is still hitting .307/.401/.562, with a K/BB ratio of 1.16. He is not seen as a player that will stick at shortstop long-term, but is one of the best pure bats in the class.

11. Cameron Flukey, RHP, Coastal Carolina
Flukey was ranked as the top college pitching prospect heading into the 2026 season, but has missed most of the season with a rib injury. He is probably one of the more volatile pitchers on the board that will have his draft position impacted by his performance and health in the tournament. Flukey has a prototypical pitcher build at 6’6”, but with room to add additional weight as he matures. He has the fastball to match his frame that sits in the mid-90s with good shape.

12. Eric Becker, SS, Virginia
Becker is a tall lanky shortstop that produced impressive batting lines as a freshman and sophomore at Virginia. Scouts were hoping to see the power develop more, but his offense has backed up slightly as a junior. MLB Pipeline gives him a 60 grade hit tool. While he does seem to have a good feel for finding the barrel, his plate discipline numbers are nothing special with an 18/33 BB/K ratio this year.

13. Sawyer Strosnider, RF, TCU
Strosnider is a draft-eligible sophomore who has some of the best tools in the class. He had an impressive freshman season at TCU putting up a 138 wRC+. His batting line is down as a sophomore, but that is mostly due to his BABIP falling below .300. He has increased his walk rate from 8% to 18.4% while keeping his strikeout rate around 18% both seasons. He projects as a corner outfielder in pro ball.

14. Ryder Helfrick, C, Arkansas
Helfrick is a defense-first catcher that has impressive pull-side power. He has hit 15 home runs at Arkansas each of the last two seasons. His strikeout rate has steadily improved from 26.9% as a freshman to 17.4% as a junior, but there are still questions about his hit tool and ability to hit breaking balls. I know teams typically do not draft for need, but surely the Cardinals’ current depth at catcher would steer them away from Helfrick. It would be a troll job of epic proportions if they spent a first-round pick on another catcher.

15. A.J. Gracia, CF, Virginia
Gracia has big-time bat speed and has translated it into over 40 home runs in three seasons at Duke and Virginia. He has a good plate approach as he has walked more than he has struck out the last two seasons. Listed at 6’3” and 195 pounds, Gracia is one of the more polished hitters in the draft and may have a chance to stick in center field at the next level.

There you have it, 15 players that the Cardinals are definitely not going to pick now that I have taken the time to get to know them.

Triple-A: Charlotte (White Sox) 4, Norfolk Tides 1

One might like to see better from a Tides lineup that has rehabbing big leaguers Jackson Holliday and Heston Kjerstad than to get just four hits in the game. One does not always get what one wants. Holliday and Kjerstad, batting at the top of the lineup, had a hit apiece. Holliday also drew two walks, two of ten that were picked up by Tides batters in this game. Lots of traffic! They just couldn’t capitalize, going 0-9 with RISP as they left 11 men on base.

Norfolk’s starter, Levi Wells, a guy who if you squint counts as a pitching prospect, allowed all four runs on seven hits over a four inning game. That included two solo home runs. He’s up to a 4.50 ERA for the season. This was a tough one for Tides pitcher/catcher combos, as the Knights stole five bases in the game.

If all of the above puts you in the mood to hear about the ongoing Triple-A success of a random reliever in whom Orioles fans had no emotional investment before this season, 28-year-old lefty Andrew Magno threw two scoreless innings, dropping his season ERA to 0.49 over 18.1 innings. My sources say that’s pretty good. To be clear, my sources are me looking at a lot of minor league box scores, many of which are bad games for the Orioles affiliate.

Box score.

Double-A: Akron (Guardians) 5, Chesapeake Baysox 1

My guy Aron Estrada had three hits and stole a base and that’s about the only good thing to say about this one. And that’s only so good, because after this game he has a .672 OPS. OK, I’ll try to find a little more: outfielder Thomas Sosa hit a home run, his third of the season, one of two hits. Other than that, a lot of zeroes, and not the good kind. Ethan Anderson took an 0-4. Lately-sorta-interesting infielder Anderson De Los Santos was 0-4. The team combined for seven hits and three players accounted for all of those hits. It is a tough way to win.

Box score.

High-A: Frederick Keys 4, Hudson Valley (Yankees) 3

Vance Honeycutt strikeout watch: Three strikeouts in an 0-4 game. We should perhaps also do a Wehiwa Aloy strikeout watch: He struck out two times, though at least he added a double for his trouble. Big first baseman Victor Figueroa remains over a 1.000 OPS after a 1-4 game here.

The performer of the game for the Keys was outfielder Braylin Tavera, still young enough that some modest success at this level is interesting. Tavera hit his third homer of the season, one of two hits on the game. He also stole a base, his 12th in 15 tries. There was a throwing error mixed in there too.

Keys starting pitcher Carson Dorsey labored through five innings, allowing six hits and three walks, which ended up translating into three runs. Two relievers behind him combined for four scoreless innings – last year’s 17th round pick Braeden Sloan struck out four guys in his two innings, picking up a save and lowering his ERA to 0.60 in ten games. He’s 22, so he’ll have to prove it at higher levels to be interesting, but it’s something.

Box score.

Low-A: Fayetteville (Astros) 8, Delmarva Shorebirds 3

Maybe the perfect example of a Shorebirds box score, not that this says good things about the recent fortunes of the lowest-level Orioles affiliate. The starting pitcher was not good. Two other pitchers weren’t good either. The team combined for just four hits, and nearly had more errors (three) than those four hits. Yeah, they lost. I don’t like to pile on when non-prospects don’t do anything to look like prospects. Look at the box score below if you really need to know.

If you have been paying attention to this roster, you might be interested in infielder DJ Layton or outfielder Stiven Martinez (the DH in this game). Layton went 1-5 with three strikeouts. Martinez took an 0-4 with three strikeouts. There just couldn’t be anything too fun here.

Box score.

Saturday’s Scheduled Games

• Norfolk: at Charlotte, 6:05. Starter: Nestor German
• Chesapeake: at Akron, 6:05. Starter: Christian Herberholz
• Frederick: at Hudson Valley, 5:05. Starter: Joseph Dzierwa
• Delmarva: vs. Fayetteville, 7:05. Starter: Brayan Orrantia

Dzierwa’s last start was cut short when a bad bounce popped up and hit him in the face as he was backing up a base on a play. Let’s not have any more of that! The guy has struck out 44 batters in 35.2 innings. I am going to see Frederick in a couple of weekends; I wonder if Dzierwa will even still be on this roster by then.

So what are the 2026 Boston Red Sox made of?

That’s what I keep asking myself, because the box scores and the standings tell two completely different stories right now and I can’t reconcile them. The Red Sox are 18-26, dead last in the AL East, nine games behind Tampa Bay with May not even over. By every measure that matters in the standings, this team is a disappointment.

But watch the actual games and something doesn’t add up.

Even with Garrett Crochet on the IL, the rest of the rotation has been effective. The bullpen has been one of the quiet success stories of the first two months. The defense is better. Chad Tracy hasn’t lost the clubhouse.

And yet the Red Sox are 18-26 because the offense has been absolutely allergic to doing anything—aka scoring runs—when it matters.

The Workhorses

This pitching staff is getting buried under all this offensive misery, and it shouldn’t be.

Garrett Crochet is still a pig. He’s doing side sessions and working his way back from left shoulder inflammation, and the rotation does in fact miss him. But even without the ace, these starters have held this team together in games all season, and this week gave you two of the starkest examples of what that actually looks like.

On Wednesday, Sonny Gray came back from his own IL stint for a right hamstring strain and was dominant. Six innings, one run, two hits, six strikeouts against a Phillies lineup that had been on a tear—especially Kyle Schwarber, who’s been eating every pitcher alive in baseball, basically. Gray is 4-1 on the year and has been every bit the steady workhorse the Red Sox needed him to be. Ceddanne Rafaela’s pinch-hit two-run shot over the Monster bailed the offense out in the win, but Gray handed them a game they had no business losing.

Thursday was the one that stings. Ranger Suárez, who left after eight seasons in Philadelphia to sign a five-year, $130 million deal with Boston in January, took the mound against his former team and was something else. He retired the first 11 batters he faced. Held the Phillies scoreless through 5.1 innings. Didn’t allow a hit until the fifth. He left with the game tied at zero and the bullpen held Philadelphia through the seventh. Then Kyle Schwarber hit a two-run homer off Tyler Samaniego in the eighth and the Red Sox lost 3-1 after scoring exactly one run in the ninth. Suárez was as good as you can be in a start. He got nothing for it.

That’s the whole season in two games.

Connelly Early has quietly been one of the better stories on this staff too, his smooth delivery and pitch mix confusing lineups without needing to throw 97. Peyton Tolle is the dude who absolutely shoves at 97 and beyond with just create-a-player nasty stuff. 

The bullpen might actually be the best unit on this roster. Garrett Whitlock has finally found his footing after years of bouncing between starter, closer, and long relief — a defined set-up role has let him flourish in a way he never quite could before. Aroldis Chapman, at 38, is still throwing absolute heat and is perfect in nine save chances. The Cuban Missile hasn’t slowed down. Justin Slaten is back with more life on his pitches than before he left. Tyler Samaniego, despite Thursday, has been one of the more underrated arms on this staff all year.

When this pitching staff takes the mound, the Red Sox have a real chance to win. That’s been true all year. The problem is entirely what happens when the offense comes up.

The Numbers Don’t Lie, They Just Sting

Seven.

That’s how many times the Red Sox have lost this season while allowing three runs or fewer. Seven games where the pitching held a quality opponent to a manageable score, kept Boston close late, and got nothing in return.

Now expand that window: any low-scoring loss where both teams finished with four runs or fewer, games entirely decided by a handful of plate appearances, and the list grows to nine.

Nine games. Flip those close losses into close wins, not some fantasy offseason move but just winning the games a competent offense makes winnable, and the Red Sox aren’t 18-26. They’re 27-17. Tied with the Yankees for second in the AL East. Right in the conversation with Tampa Bay instead of watching them from nine back.

This feels like the insanity of last year, of losing so many one-run games that could have made that team feel much more like a juggernaut. 

Nine games! From an offense that ranks 21st in batting average (.235), 23rd in on-base percentage (.314), and 29th in slugging (.353). Through 19 home games at Fenway, the Red Sox have scored just 56 runs — the lowest 19-game stretch at Fenway since the Green Monster was built in 1934. Their record at home is frankly embarrassing, but that’s another story. 

Missed Opportunities

The team is hitting .236 with runners in scoring position. That’s bad enough. But the individual numbers are where it gets ugly, and it’s both the frequency and the flavor of the failures that make this so hard to watch.

Jarren Duran is hitting .189 with men on base. Caleb Durbin, playing almost every day at third, is at .169. Trevor Story, supposed to be the middle-of-the-order veteran presence, is hitting .198 with RISP and drawing boos at Fenway after back-to-back strikeouts have become something of a calling card. His .520 OPS in those situations tells you everything about where he is right now. I’m sure he feels in a weird place hearing all the information from the front office on whether he’s in or out of this squad, but the amount of drama this team has is—yet again—another story. 

Two guys who’ve held up are Willson Contreras at .253 and Ceddanne Rafaela at .276. Contreras is also the team leader in home runs (8) and RBI (23): the guy brought in as a complementary hopeful power bat has become the one to actually count on to drive in a run. Rafaela’s numbers are decent, but he’s a nine-hole hitter, not meant for the middle of the order.

The multitude of ways this Red Sox team continues to fail at scoring runs matters as much as the frequency. A leadoff double dies on three weak grounders. An obvious fastball count turns into a called strike three because the hitter was sitting breaking ball. A swing with a man on third and one out that looks more like someone trying to end a month-long drought single-handedly than just put the ball somewhere useful. Getting greedy trying to swipe a bat and either getting picked off or caught stealing. Multiple games this season where Boston stranded nine, ten, eleven runners while the pitching kept things close enough that any one of them scoring changed the outcome.

Fenway wakes up for half an inning and goes quiet before anyone can actually get excited.

What We’re Missing

Roman Anthony is hurt, and that matters. He was the one hitter in this lineup with the plate discipline and natural power to change games, the kind of presence who makes the whole order harder to pitch around. When he comes back healthy, hopefully he regains his form from 2025, because this team is a different animal when he’s in it. His eye and walk rate was still solid, it’s clear he had something physical coming into the season and that should hopefully be abated. 

In the meantime, Wilyer Abreu is the most dangerous bat this lineup has. He leads the team in hits, he has real pop, and he’s the one guy opposing pitchers actually have to think twice about. Marcelo Mayer keeps flashing enough to make you think the breakthrough is one hot week away. Jarren Duran, when he locks in and goes back to attacking instead of guessing, can still change games — but he’s hitting .162 overall right now and the new load approach continues to be a work in progress.

The defense is genuinely better. Ceddanne Rafaela continues to be a platinum glove in center. His range alone saves runs that never show up anywhere. That part of the team, at least, is doing its job.

Direction

Truly bad teams announce themselves early. You stop expecting much, adjust, and start looking at draft positioning and talking about next year.

This team keeps refusing to do that. It keeps flashing enough competence to make the offensive failures feel personal. You go into every series thinking this is the week something clicks, and then watch the offense score one run in nine innings behind a guy who retired 11 straight Phillies.

Tampa Bay is 29-14 and running away with this division. The pesky Rays are back. Great. That’s the reality. But the other reality, the one that makes watching this team feel like a specific, targeted kind of torture, is that those nine games are sitting right there. Nine games not lost because the Red Sox got outclassed. Nine games lost because the offense couldn’t do the one thing the pitching kept begging it to do.

Chad Tracy has been a steady presence since taking over and the clubhouse clearly hasn’t fallen apart. But steady presence doesn’t score runs. At some point this offense has to look at those nine games and decide it wants them back.

Gray eats innings coming off the IL and doesn’t skip a beat. Suárez shuts down his former team for five innings and gets nothing for it. Chapman throws 99 at 38 years old. Whitlock finally has the role he was built for. Slaten comes in throwing harder than before. And Crochet is doing side sessions, working his way back, probably thinking about all the run support he’s not missing.

The pig will be back. The rest of the staff is holding the building up in the meantime. Someone else needs to show up to the trough.

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is in a slump at the plate, but a matchup against Casey Mize may be just what he needs to buck the trend. 

Read on to see why with my Blue Jays vs. Tigers predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, May 16. 

Blue Jays vs Tigers predictions

Blue Jays vs Tigers best bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 singles (-130)

Despite being mired in a lengthy skid at the plate, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. still ranks in the 96th percentile in xBA, and should see some positive regression soon once he finally gets going. 

Today could be that day, especially with Casey Mize on the mound for the Detroit Tigers.

Guerrero Jr. is 3-for-3 against Mize in his career, with two of the three hits being singles. 

I’m betting his singles market specifically because that’s the sweet spot for value, as 80% of his hits this year have been one-baggers. 

COVERS INTEL: Guerrero Jr. owns a .345 career average against the Detroit Tigers.

Blue Jays vs Tigers same-game parlay (SGP)

Yohendrick Pinango continues to rack up the hits game by game. He owns a .350 batting average, while recording a hit in 10 of his 14 career outings. 

Ernie Clement is a contact hitter who’s gone Under his strikeout number in 68% of his outings this season, ranking in the 99th percentile in K-rate. 

Blue Jays vs Tigers SGP

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 singles
• Yohendrick Pinango Over 0.5 hits
• Ernie Clement Under 0.5 strikeouts

Blue Jays vs Tigers home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+300)

I’m making this a half-unit wager. 

Mize has kept the ball in the yard this season, and hasn’t given up a home run in four starts. However, if there’s one player who could take him deep today, I’m banking on it being Kazuma Okamoto.

The Jays slugger owns a .391 AVG and a .610 SLG against the four-seam fastball, which is Mize’s most used pitch against right-handed batters.

Okamoto has a team-high 10 home runs this year, while ranking in the 95th percentile in hard hit rate.

Blue Jays vs Tigers odds

• Moneyline: Toronto +110 | Detroit -130
• Run line: Toronto +1.5 | Detroit -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Blue Jays vs Tigers trend

The Blue Jays have hit the team total Under in 15 of their last 20 away games (+9.35 Units / 39% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Tigers.

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The Yankees’ bullpen has dealt with underperformance, bad luck, and a lack of clearly defined roles through mid-May. And yet, the unit ranks fifth in baseball in ERA. Aided by a starting rotation which has shouldered a lion’s share of the workload and overperformances by two little-heralded lefties, New York’s relievers have somehow managed to keep pace.

As I do each month in a given season, I’m going to take a look at the Yankees’ relievers to identify how manager Aaron Boone is deploying each and offer a verdict as to how much trust we can place in them moving forward.

Statistics below are as of the morning of May 15th.

The Closer

David Bednar

Season stats: 18 IP, 3.50 ERA, 22 SO, 2.38 FIP, 10 Saves (in 11 opportunities)

Bednar has not been a shutdown closer. That fact has not prevented him from getting the job done. Of the eight games in which he’s allowed at least one run, only one has resulted in a blown save. He’s avoided the big inning, permitting only one home run, and hasn’t walked a batter since April 17, limiting traffic as he’s worked around some base hits.

Confidence level: High

Bednar’s peripherals may be the strongest of his career. 40 percent of the time opponents swing at one of his pitches, it’s outside the strike zone, helping along an elite 57.7 percent ground-ball rate. His expected ERA of 2.39 is more in line with his career benchmarks and suggests the veteran closer is right where he needs to be.

The Middle Relievers

Camilo Doval

Season stats: 15.2 IP, 5.74 ERA, 17 SO, 4.00 FIP

The Yankees do not have a set-up man. That’s because Doval, who was handed the job out of camp, has struggled mightily, creating a vacuum which has yet to be filled. Despite allowing 10 runs in 15.2 innings, Doval remains in the mix for late-inning opportunities. He’s looked better, though by no means dominant, in May, pitching to a 3.38 ERA in six outings.

Confidence level: Low

Part of the reason the former Giants’ closer is still involved in high-leverage spots may be his pedigree, but part of it is his underlying numbers. Doval has a sparkling expected ERA of 2.86, driven by a miniscule 4.5 percent walk rate and an ability to keep the ball on the ground. That gives some cause for hope that he can turn things around, but the right-hander is yet to build confidence that he will do so.

Fernando Cruz 

Season stats: 16.2 IP, 2.70 ERA, 24 SO, 4.13 FIP

With Cruz, the formula is simple: here’s my splitter, good luck hitting it. After opponents batted .178 against the pitch last year, it was fair to wonder if the league would adjust. Through this point in the season, they’re hitting .139 against it. Sure, batters are raking against Cruz’s four-seamer and he’s walking more than a batter every other outing. But, as long as that splitter continues to dominate, his formula for success is clear.

Confidence level: High

Cruz is red hot, having allowed only one earned run in his past nine appearances. Boone has continued to use him in key spots, often in the middle innings of close games when the outcome is still very much in the air.

Brent Headrick

Season stats: 21.2 IP, 2.08 ERA, 23 SO, 3.29 FIP

After getting his ERA as low as 1.37 after a victory on May 7, Headrick has allowed runs in his last two outings.

It could be the beginning of a regression anticipated by just about any predictive metric, though the 28-year-old has done plenty to earn the trust Boone has placed in him. One thing to keep an eye on is some gaudy splits. Bizarrely, the southpaw has dominated righties (.538 OPS) but struggled against lefties (.914) He’s also pitched much better at home (.368 OPS) than on the road (.931).

Confidence level: Medium-High

Underlying metrics and unsustainably extreme splits, as well as an unremarkable track record before this season, suggest that Headrick’s early run of success may not last. Time will tell, but for now, he’s well established as a high-leverage option, and for good reason.

Tim Hill

Season stats: 18 IP, 1.00 ERA, 7 SO, 3.38 FIP

In last month’s column, I lamented how difficult it is to find new angles to discuss “old reliable” himself. Since then? Hill has tossed seven scoreless innings. The man walks no one and gets opponents to put 73.2 percent of batted balls on the ground, far and away tops in baseball. 20 appearances into the season, he’s still just allowed one home run.

Confidence level: High

FIP and expected ERA anticipate some regression from Hill. I can guarantee you that the 36-year-old does not care. Clearly, neither does Boone, who’s quickly elevated the southpaw from lefty specialist to pseudo set-up man.

The Long Relievers

Paul Blackburn

Season stats: 17.2 IP, 4.08 ERA, 11 SO, 4.29 FIP

The Yankees re-signed Blackburn, who’d started 86 big-league games in his career, this offseason to serve as a long reliever. So far, he’s fit the role like a glove. When Boone wanted an opener for a Brendan Beck spot start? Blackburn took the bump in the first. When Max Fried exited with an injury after three innings? Blackburn stepped in. He’s been eminently solid, pitching to a 105 ERA+ and eating innings at a pro level.

Confidence level: Medium

Assuming he continues to be used in low leverage spots, Blackburn provides a solid floor. There’s nothing under the hood to suggest he’s on the path to more prominent usage.

The Mop-Up Men

Ryan Yarbrough

Season stats: 15.2 IP, 3.45 ERA, 14 SO, 3.49 FIP

Yarbrough has largely been used in blowouts, mopping up in games that are already out of hand. Still, his ERA+ of 124 is exemplary. The lefty’s peripherals, including a 2.22 xERA and 18.2 percent hard-hit rate, suggest those outcomes may not be a fluke, though the sample size remains small.

Confidence index: Low

Despite better outcomes than Blackburn, Yarborough is clearly below his right-handed counterpart in Boone’s pecking order. The lack of confidence here is not his fault; it’s simply impossible to put trust in a pitcher who’s only pitched twice in the last three weeks. Given this lack of usage, it’s unclear if the southpaw will continue to maintain his spot in the bullpen long-term.

Jake Bird

Season stats: 13.1 IP, 4.73 ERA, 14 SO, 3.11 FIP

May has been kind to Jake Bird. After entering the month with a 7.00 ERA, he’s turned in six scoreless appearances.

The right-hander hasn’t looked particularly dynamic, striking out four against three walks, but beggars can’t be choosers. On the season as a whole, opponents are hitting .200 against his sinker after batting .345 against the pitch last year. Given it’s his primary fastball, that difference could end up having a major impact.

Confidence level: Low

Considering the open-ended nature of the Yankees’ bullpen picture, if Bird continues to perform well, he could start to see himself inserted in more high-leverage spots. The Yankees clearly think highly of his stuff; expect them to continue looking for opportunities to get him involved.

The Atlanta Braves began the series with the Boston Red Sox on a high note after getting a win in walk-off fashion. Mike Yastrzemski was the hero and delivered a walk-off in the 10th to give the Braves the 3-2 edge. 

Prior to the 10th inning, the Atlanta offense was relatively quiet. The lineup collected seven hits but only plated a run in the first and fourth innings.

Yastrzemski and the Braves look to ride this momentum and go for another series win tonight at 7:15 ET.

More Braves News:

Ronald Acuña Jr. took BP ahead of Friday’s contest, but he is still not ready to play in the outfield. 

Luis Arestigueta recorded six strikeouts during his outing on Thursday. More in the minor league recap.

MLB News:

New York Mets right-hander Clay Holmes has a fractured fibula and will be out “for a long time.” He suffered the injury during Friday’s matchup with the New York Yankees.

The San Diego Padres placed right-hander Matt Waldron on the 15-day injured list with an injury to his right brachialis muscle. 

The Los Angeles Dodgers placed lefty Blake Snell on the 15-day injured list due to loose bodies in his throwing elbow. The move is retroactive to May 12. 

The Colorado Rockies placed right-hander Chase Dollander on the 15-day injured list with an elbow sprain. 

The New York Yankees placed Max Fried on the injured list due to a bone bruise in his left elbow. Though there is not a clear timetable for his return, he will be on the IL for more than a minimum stint. 

From The Feed:

When Ronald Acuña Jr. returns from the injured list, should Drake Baldwin continue to hit leadoff? Cast your vote here.

The Dodgers starting rotation was the most stable part of their team through the first quarter of the season, but the last week and a half has put a dent in the depth and figures to create some tests over at least the next few weeks. Blake Snell was placed on the injured list on Friday with loose bodies in his left elbow, which means he’ll be on the shelf for quite a while.

“We feel confident he’ll be back with us this year,” manager Dave Roberts told reporters before Friday’s game in Anaheim, from which Snell was scratched from his scheduled start.

That’s not what you want to hear about any player or pitcher, but it’s where the Dodgers are at. Dodgers closer Edwin Díaz had arthroscopic surgery on April 22 to remove loose bodies from his elbow and is expected to miss three months. Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal had surgery to remove loose bodies as well on May 6, and his return timetable is measured in months, not weeks.

The outcome for Snell is still to be determined, but surgery is the most likely per Maddie Lee of the Los Angeles Times. That decision will come in the next week, per Jack Harris of the California Post, who noted such a procedure would sideline Snell until July or August.

Tyler Glasnow is also on the injured list with back spasms. He’s technically eligible to return next Friday, but Roberts said earlier this week that Glasnow won’t be ready by then, and is only just now throwing off flat ground.

So for now, the Dodgers rotation is Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, Emmet Sheehan, Justin Wrobleski, and Roki Sasaki. Yamamoto and Sasaki always get at least five days of rest between starts and Ohtani usually gets at least six, with just one start this year on five days rest. That figures to continue, per Fabian Ardaya at The Athletic:

“I think we’re prepared to do whatever we can,” Roberts said. “But I will say the most important thing is to keep the guys on their schedules, not try to push too much because of circumstances with the rotation, because then you start to compromise their health.”

To date, no Dodgers pitcher this season has started on four days rest, and only 12 of 45 starts have been with five days rest.

After Ohtani’s seven shutout innings on Wednesday against the San Francisco Giants, Roberts said part of the reason he kept Ohtani in was due to getting extra rest before his next time out, which suggested some sort of shuffling before the series against the San Diego Padres. It’s unclear whether Snell’s injury changed those plans.

Perhaps a bullpen game was inevitable either in this series or the next, but with Snell scratched on Friday the Dodgers pivoted to using eight pitchers for a combined shutout of the Angels. There are five games left during this current stretch of 13 game days in a row. If the Dodgers stay in order, they can start Wrobleski, Sasaki, Yamamoto, Ohtani, and Sheehan over the next five games, with all of them going on five days rest.

If the Dodgers stay in that order in the rotation, they won’t need a sixth starter (or someone pitching on four days rest) until May 27, at home against the Colorado Rockies. If Glasnow isn’t an option by then, River Ryan will at least still be on the radar. Ryan returned for Triple-A Oklahoma City with four innings and four strikeouts on Friday in Albuquerque, after missing over a month with a hamstring strain, and has time to start at least once more in Triple-A to build up before a potential call-up, though the Dodgers don’t plan to rush him back.

“You’ve just got to be sure that he gets out of this one okay and it’s got to be a uniform decision that we all feel good about,” Roberts told reporters in Anaheim earlier on Friday. “Him pitching for us is a possibility, but it’s a slim possibility. The most important thing is his progression. If everyone isn’t on board with that and speeding it up, it’s moot, it’s just not going to happen. But if the training staff feels that it’s okay and you’re not compromising him and the progression, then it’s a conversation.”

Or more bullpen games could be in the future Left-hander Charlie Barnes was called up from Oklahoma City on Friday with Snell going on the injured list, and pitched the ninth inning on Friday’s shutout. Barnes is a starter by trade and four of his seven appearances for the Triple-A Iowa Cubs this season were starts, all of them lasting five innings, the last on May 6. The Dodgers claimed Barnes off waivers on May 9, and he was originally slated to start for Oklahoma City on Saturday before the call up.