Logan Gilbert is probably two starts away from recording his 1,000th career strikeout. After adding another eight in yesterday’s win over the Red Sox, he now sits at 984 since he made his debut. Yesterday’s outing, in which he walked just two and allowed only a smattering of good contact, marked the sixth solid start in a row for Gilbert, a streak that might just mark a turning point for the skyscraping Stetson.
Gilbert has been a good pitcher since his very first strikeout, a three-pitch manhandling of Cleveland’s César Hernández on May 13, 2021. But he’s never been satisfied with being good and so has been constantly tinkering and tailoring throughout his five-plus years in the show. The most remarked upon change has probably been that he has drastically cut down on his fastball usage.
In his first MLB season, he threw his fastball 60.8% of the time, 10th most in the league. Historically, it was his best pitch, appearing even faster than its actual velocity thanks to how close his hand is to home plate by the time he releases it. But after refining his slider and developing a nasty splitter, that number plummeted to 41.8% in 2023 and has held steady in the low thirties over the past few seasons. That may be changing again.
Over the past six starts, Gilbert has bumped up his four-seamer use to 45.2%, including a whopping 68% yesterday, his high-water mark in a game since his rookie season. It’s not the best velo he’s ever had, but he’s back up to 96.0 mph on it. The velo spike was particularly dramatic yesterday, when he averaged a season-high 96.8, bested 98 nine times, and even hit 99.9 mph. (In an exceedingly rare joke, Dan Wilson noted, “I’m sure we’ll be hearing about that all week.”)
The increased presence of his heater has corresponded with a bounceback in his effectiveness. Over that six-game stretch, his K%-BB% has spiked to 24.1% from 19.5% in his first ten starts. And he’s picking up whiffs on an elite 16.2% of his pitches. His 18 yesterday were somehow just the third most this month; he had 21 on June 2nd and June 16th.
Where are those extra fastballs coming from? Mostly, they’re replacing his terrible cutter, a pitch that couldn’t elicit either whiffs or weak contact. It’s a pitch he’s tried before, to try to make his arsenal a little more east-west than the strictly north-south profile on his other pitches. But he’d abandoned it halfway through last year for a reason. Hitters were not fooled by it and the in-between velocity and movement just ended up making all his pitches blend together a little too much. Now, after bringing it back to start the year, he’s abandoning it again, down from 11.5% of his pitches through his first ten starts to just 4.5% over his last six. Not only is he throwing more fastballs, he’s using them to replace his worst pitch.
Gilbert’s curveball is also down, but he used it a bunch yesterday with two strikes. And I’m expecting him to continue that trend. As Gilbert said after the game, “[Cal Raleigh] went to curveball a few times with two strikes. I think that was smart, looking back afterwards. Like if guys are kind of in-between bat speed you don’t really want to give them a gift, something at 90 or whatever. So the curveball at 81, if you’re keeping the same hand speed and everything. I think it does a good job fooling them.”
Importantly for a team that’s running with a seven-man bullpen, this stretch has also seen Gilbert work deeper into games. After being one of the game’s true workhorses, leading the league in innings pitched in 2024, he averaged just 5.1 innings per start in 2025. In his first ten starts of this season, he increased that by an additional out per game (no small thing), and now, over this six-game span, he’s averaging more than six innings per game, which is the kind of pace we want to see him on.
To recap all that: Since May 22, Logan Gilbert has averaged an extra half a tick on his fastball, he’s using it more, and pitching deeper into games.
To be sure, not all indicators are pointing in the same direction. Gilbert’s been inducing more foul balls, and not coincidentally, needing about 0.23 more pitches per plate appearance (which doesn’t sound like a lot, but is). That wouldn’t prevent him from pitching deeper into games as long as he wasn’t allowing too much traffic. But the quality of contact he’s allowing, long his greatest weakness, has deteriorated a little too. It’s possible he’s just been a little lucky lately. His BABIP is down and his strand rate is up as well.
I don’t think it’s that simple, though. The logic behind his change in approach is too sound. Throw the fastball more and guys will get fewer looks at the slider, splitter, and curveball. So Gilbert can use those to actually put guys away. All those extra strikeouts will leave runners stranded too. And his BABIP is only down within the margin of error, with “error” being the operative word for the Mariners defense—nobody should be making too much of BABIP changes one way or the other in front of this defense.
Dan also credits Gilbert’s recent success to the fastball: “It’s the velo, but it’s also the combination of that with being in the zone. You’ve got to get the hitter in swing mode, and it makes the splitter and the slider work so much better. That was the key [yesterday], getting ahead of a lot of guys. I think the first nine out of 10 he was ahead in the count with the heater, and when you’re throwing 98 to 100, getting ahead, that’s going to speed the bat up and leave them susceptible to the off-speed stuff.”
Gilbert tried a lot of different ideas to get out of the funk he’d been in for the past year and a half. He tried new pitches, he changed the shape of others. But the one thing he’d had yet to try was reversion. I get why. If you moved away from something and started improving, it can be scary to try to go back to it. But it might be just what the doctor ordered. That very first strikeout of Hernández was set up by a first-pitch fastball on the top rail. Then he went after him with a curveball on the bottom rail. And finally, he threw an ankle-high slider that Hernández swung right over the top of. How poetic would it be to set up his 1,000th strikeout with a fastball too?
