Folks, I don’t think I got it today. I spent all of Thursday getting ready for a weekend trip, of course not giving myself enough time to do everything I wanted to do, so the entire day was hectic. I arrived at my destination that night, and then drank heavily for three straight nights. I am unfortunately saddled with the inability to sleep when I drink – I am a near guarantee to wake up at 5 or 6 in the morning and then struggle to go back to sleep. There is a bonus: I have avoided many a hangover because it hasn’t kicked in yet when I wake up. The downside is becoming a walking zombie.
Anyway, I drove home Sunday morning, but not to my house. It was Father’s Day after all. I drove straight to my parents house on something like a combined 15 hours sleep over the past three days. Actually 15 is probably optimistic. My dad got a JJ Wetherholt jersey and Masyn Winn bobblehead, so it was incredibly exciting when both hit homers in the 1st. I’m not kidding, we just finished giving him gifts and then the Cardinal game started not even five minutes later. I finally got home at 7 pm. And here we are.
So a quick article it is. But I don’t want to leave you with nothing so, some random observations for you
JJ Wetherholt’s ridiculous season
JJ Wetherholt is answer to the question: what if you just maxed out everything a baseball player does? JJ Wetherholt, at least in his first three months of professional baseball, has been an elite baserunner and elite fielder. It doesn’t matter what stat you use. He is +13 outs above average, which is quite literally 100 percentile among defenders according to Statcast. He is 95th percentile by baserunning value. He has 1.2 dWAR if you prefer Baseball-Reference. And his hitting isn’t bad either.
Wetherholt, now with 3.3 fWAR on the year, is on pace to have the best rookie season by a Cardinals player since Albert Pujols. And it’s pretty much equal to Pujols’ season. He’s on pace for 7.1 fWAR, Pujols had 7.2 fWAR. That’s a rounding error. I have comped him to Chase Utley before in sort of a pie-in-the-sky outcome – that is not a crazy comp. Utley was not a Hall of Famer caliber player because of his offense – well he sort of was – but he maxed out his baserunning and fielding value.
Ignore the power aspect – Citizen Banks Park is a much better park for homers than Busch Stadium, but even accepting that, Utley most likely has more power than Wetherholt ever will – if you look at the season by season wRC+ Utley had, it doesn’t feel THAT crazy anymore. Utley’s peak began with a 134 wRC+, which he followed with a 130 wRC+, and then a 150, then 134, 141, and 128 wRC+. Wetherholt still has work to do, since he’s “only” at a 127 wRC+ right now.
However, he is arguably getting unlucky. Maybe yesterday’s game fixes that. I don’t know. But he entered yesterday’s game with a .360 xwOBA and a .343 wOBA. His 3-5 day with two homers and a HBP rose his actual wOBA to .354. But you know, it probably raised his xwOBA too. Somewhat inexplicably his second homer carried an expected batting average of .030 while simultaneously being a homer in 19 parks. His single carried a .930 xBA and there’s no data on his first homer, but that was more of a no doubter. Point being, I think his xwOBA will still paint him as unlucky.
So that 130-140 wRC+ range doesn’t feel crazy, and we’re talking about a 23-year-old with 71 career games. While his baserunning and fielding really has nowhere to go but down, his hitting may not be a finished product. We really have a special player here.
Have faith in Masyn Winn
Even if I accepted that Masyn Winn was now an 80-85 wRC+ hitter carried by his defense, I have not really understood the discourse about replacing him. Let’s tackle positions that are actually a problem first. I don’t care if there are a lot of 3 win shortstops, that doesn’t make replacing him automatically easy. Wetherholt could most likely handle SS, but his greatest weakness is his arm, so he is very much not a guarantee that it would work and there’s very little chance he’s a better defender at SS than Winn.
I have also been very vocal in thinking he has more in the tank offensively. He’s still just 24-years-old. I don’t think his best offensive days are behind him. I also look at like this: we don’t need Masyn Winn’s bat to better. It’s almost a bonus. I think it can be better, but we’re not dependent on it being better. Winn will still be a valuable player and a worthy starter on a playoff caliber team even if his bat is what it is. Despite a slow start with the bat and with defensive numbers that I think will get better, he’s still nearly on pace for a 3 WAR season.
Is anybody else worried about Gordon Graceffo?
Graceffo is really working on a razor’s edge right now. He is not missing bats, he is walking too many, and he’s not really getting a lot of groundballs either. ERA is the only stat that makes him look good, the rest make him look… unplayable honestly. Every single one of them. His bad game on Thursday was a long time coming, and he has 4 walks to zero strikeouts in his last 3.1 innings of work. I had kind of assumed his advanced stats would start creeping towards his ERA at some point, and they really haven’t.
It’s interesting how much even the analytical fans will trust a good ERA, because I just haven’t seen a lot of talk about Graceffo. By literally any advanced stat and I genuinely think I’m using literally correctly here, we should trust Ryne Stanek more than Graceffo. We should trust Justin Bruhl more! Why can’t he miss any bats???
And that’s all I got for you.