Nolan Arenado fields a ground ball with his bare hand. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)
Inspiration.
The Diamondbacks acquired Nolan Arenado. He has won 5 Silver Slugger awards, 10 Gold Glove awards, and 6 Platinum Glove awards. And yet his batting declined to near average in the last couple seasons. What happened? Will he impact the Diamondbacks?
Batting.
The context of his batting decline was that even in decline his batting has some awesome characteristics. Three characteristics follow:
11.2 K% was at the 96th percentile.
17.9 whiff % was at the 85th percentile.
28.8 squared up % was at the 76th percentile.
His batting decline can be understood in at least three ways. Let’s look at each explanation.
Injury. In June he injured his finger. He played through the injury by adjusting his swing. On 11 July, he aggravated the injury. Later in July, his adjusted swing was likely responsible for his shoulder injury. He was on the injured list until September.
Nolan Arenado regrets that he played through the injury instead of immediately addressing it.
“If I could do it all over again, I probably would have just taken time [on the injured list] when I hurt my finger — that was probably the biggest mistake I made.”— Nolan Arenado
Less Pulled Baseballs. Looking at his balls in play, the percentage that were pulled fell from 46.9% in 2023, to 44.2% in 2024, to 42.1% in 2025. That is significant because in 2025 his monthly (ignoring July because it was the injury month) OBP/SLG/wOBA stats shown in Baseball Savant were consistently awesome for pulled balls in play, but below average for straightaway and opposite field balls in play. In September, he showed potential for average results to the opposite field.
For an obvious reason, it is easier to pull the ball when contact is made farther in front of the plate. Perhaps he pulled a lower percentage of balls because he hit the ball closer to the plate. His average contact point changed from 4.8”/4.9” in 2023/2024 to 3.0” in 2025 when league average was 2.9” per Baseball Savant.
“I think some of the adjustments I’m trying to make, and the adjustments that I’ve talked with the hitting coaches already about are going to pay dividends down the line….quiet my head, see the ball better, and hopefully create space for me to work out front again. That’s when I’m at my best is when I’m pulling the ball out front.” — Nolan Arenado
Busch Field was unlucky. To some extent, in 2025 Nolan Arenado was unlucky with Runners in Scoring Position (RISP). While 30.5% of his PAs were with RISP, only 26.5% of his hits were with RISP, and only 8.3% of his homers were with RISP per Baseball Savant. If his batting had been consistent, even with RISP, his SLG and Runs Batted In (RBIs) would have been higher.
Moving from Busch Field to Chase Field will be a positive change. Park factors show he will hit more doubles (park factor increases from 105 to 115) and triples (park factor increases from 81 to 204). More doubles and triples will improve his SLG and RBIs.
Defense.
In the context that the last time he won a Gold Glove award and a Platinum Glove Award was 2022 (when he won both), and that as he ages his defense will decline, I am confident that he is an outstanding defender at third base.
In 2025, his 2.4% errors per attempt was a career best. His 98.2 fielding percentage and his 2.84 Range Factor per 9 innings are above league averages.
His strength will be fielding ground balls hit to third base. In 2025, his 85.3% positive results with ground balls compared favorably to the Diamondbacks’ 77.7%. (Also, his positive defensive results increased slightly with RISP.)
My view is that his strength will most improve the results of Diamondbacks pitchers who had the highest percent of ground balls towards third base. The following table shows the pitchers who will benefit the most. 2025 Data from Baseball Savant.
Impact on Diamondbacks Wins.
Batting. My subjective estimate is that his impact will add 10 runs scored. That is roughly equivalent to one additional win. That is based on the following assumptions:
No re-injuries to his finger or shoulder.
He pulls more balls by contacting the ball farther in front of the plate.
He hits at least as well with RISP as without RISP.
He hits more doubles and triples at Chase Field than Busch Field due to different park factors.
Defense. My subjective estimate is that the impacted pitchers will allow 10 less runs due to Nolan Arenado’s strong defense. That is roughly equivalent to one additional win.
Summary.
Nolan Arenado will add two wins to the Diamondbacks.
We began with the same ballot as the Hall of Fame in 2015, and have proceeded from there on. The same 75% super-majority is required for election, and players are removed from the future ballot on election here, regardless of whether or not they made it into the “real” Hall of Fame. So far, the SnakePit electorate has been in reasonably close agreement with the BBWAA – timing has been the main variation, but we have generally been a greater proponent of “small Hall”. The differences are as follows
In Cooperstown, but not yet here: Mike Mussina, Scott Rolen, Todd Helton, C.C. Sabathia, Billy Wagner
In here, but not in Cooperstown: Curt Schilling
Wagner and Sheffield are now dropped from the SnakePit ballot, so have to wait for the Veterans’ Committee. Which would mean having to establish one, so they probably shouldn’t hold their breath. Failing to get over 5% last time, and so also removed are (deep breath) Cliff Lee, Mark Buehrle, Matt Holliday, David Wright, Brian McCann, Dan Haren, Adrián González, Ian Kinsler, Troy Tulowitzki, Ben Zobrist, Curtis Granderson, Hanley Ramírez. Russell Martin, Adam Jones and Carlos González. This year’s list has been adjusted for the non-electees mentioned above, along with adding the following new arrivals.
Cole Hamels
Ryan Braun
Alex Gordon
Shin-Soo Choo
Edwin Encarnación
Howie Kendrick
Nick Markakis
Hunter Pence
Gio Gonzalez
Matt Kemp
Daniel Murphy
Rick Porcello
Andruw Jones (9th season, 70%), Helton (8th, 70%), Rolen (9th, 50%) and Sabathia (1st, 55%) are the returning names mentioned on half or more of the ballots in 2025. We’ll see if any of these end up getting closer to induction into SnakePit Towers! Manny Ramirez (40%) will be drinking at the last chance saloon on the 2026 ballot. I’m not seeing any slam-dunk candidates this year, like Ichiro was, so it is possible I might not have to spend any money on PBR and sausage rolls for an induction ceremony. But we will see
To prevent potential ballot-box stuffing, voting is open only to registered AZ SnakePit users – forms without a valid username filled in will be rejected [however, since you can join by clicking on a link and filling in a form, it’s not exactly an onerous requirement!]. I reserve the right to publish your ballot, with or without your name attached, depending on how amusing it is. However, feel free to announce your ballot and explain it in the comments. You can select as many candidates as you want: there’s no “10 maximum” as on the real thing. Voting is open through Jan 19: the BBWAA will announce their results the following day, and we’ll follow suit shortly thereafter. I will filter out multiple votes too, so you know!
The form is below, and the eligible names are randomized for each submission: here’s a link if you’re on mobile or are otherwise finding the form griefsome. Please feel free to explain your selection in the comments!
Late in the evening of October 22, 2003, Carl Pavano toed the rubber at Miami’s then-Pro Player Stadium. He faced Derek Jeter, who had been named Yankees captain just months prior. Pavano had already retired Jeter three times that day, including inducing two back-breaking double plays. If he could put him away once more, the pitcher who’d flamed out in Montreal and struggled to find consistency throughout his brief career would have a signature moment, an eight-inning, one-run show of dominance against the mighty Bronx Bombers in the Fall Classic. On the fifth pitch of the at-bat, he caught Jeter looking with a pitch on the outside corner. Somewhere, Brian Cashman and George Steinbrenner were watching.
Carl Pavano Signing Date: December 20, 2004 Contract: Four years, $39.95 million
Pavano was born in New Britain, Connecticut, where he pitched well enough at Southington High School to garner the attention of the Red Sox, who took him in the 13th round of the 1994 MLB Draft. He quickly rose through the ranks, dominating both Double-A and Triple-A and ending up as Baseball America’s ninth-ranked prospect in all of baseball before the 1998 season. That’s when Boston flipped him to the Expos as the prospect headliner of the deal that brought back Pedro Martínez.
The 22-year-old made his debut for Montreal that year, posting an encouraging 4.21 ERA and league-average 100 ERA+ in 134.2 innings. But, in what would become a trend for Pavano, the following years were marred by inconsistency and injury. The Expos threw in the towel on him midway through the 2002 season, trading the starter — who was 3-8 with a 6.30 ERA at the time — to the Marlins as part of a package that netted them Cliff Floyd and Wilton Guerrero.
The 2003 season was the first time Pavano truly got the chance to pitch a full, healthy season. He performed around league average but passed the 200-inning threshold, demonstrating that he could shoulder his share of the load in a competitive rotation.
But it was in the postseason when the right-hander truly broke out. In 19.1 innings — including that aforementioned World Series Game 4 start against the Yankees — Pavano allowed just three runs, serving as a catalyst for Florida’s unlikely title run.
Pavano continued that run of dominance into his walk year in 2004, delivering a career year at the perfect time. The 28-year-old earned the only All-Star berth of his career, winning 18 games for a middling Marlins team while finishing sixth in Cy Young voting. Crucially, he tossed 222.1 innings, ranking top-10 in baseball and signaling that his injury-prone days were behind him.
The 2004-2005 offseason was a transformative one for the Yankees’ rotation. After a backbreaking ALCS exit in ‘04, Jon Lieber and Esteban Loaiza exited in free agency. GM Brian Cashman worked feverishly to replenish his corps of starters, signing Pavano to a four-year, $39.95 million deal and Jaret Wright to a three-year, $21 million deal while swapping Javier Vázquez to the Diamondbacks in a trade that brought back five-time Cy Young Award-winner Randy Johnson.
Joe Torre, in a classic instance of putting the cart before the horse, exalted in his apparent embarrassment of riches. “We have a ton of pitchers on the staff,” the Yankees manager said after the acquisitions. “It’s a nice problem to have, trust me. Last year, my only concern was the lack of depth in the starting pitching. Now we have some youth, too.”
Torre played a major role in luring Pavano. While several teams aggressively courted the starter — including the Red Sox, who set up a lunch with ace Curt Schilling to lure him, and the Tigers, who enlisted Hall of Famer Al Kaline to show him around Detroit — the longtime skipper’s personal touch spoke to him. “His conversations with Joe Torre, who spoke with him again by phone in the last couple of days, really were impactful,” Pavano’s agent, Scott Shapiro, said. “Carl told me point-blank that he would go to war for the man. You can’t say anything bad about the decision of wanting to play for Joe Torre.“
Pavano’s outgoing manager lauded the Yankees for the move as well, citing what had become a well-established reputation for hard work and mental toughness. “Carl is a pretty level-headed kid,” Marlins manager Jack McKeon said. “He has a lot of pride and a tremendous desire to get better. He’s not satisfied with winning 18. He wants to get better. Nothing is going to bother him.”
This honeymoon continued into spring training where New York beat writers trumpeted his winning demeanor. Despite throwing two scoreless innings in his spring training debut, Pavano told the media that, “I don’t know if I’ll ever be happy, no matter how I throw out there. That’s how I keep my edge.” His hard-nosed, lunch-pail attitude were theorized to be a perfect fit for New York.
At the end of the day, though, what matters is performance. After a solid first month, Pavano began to unravel. By June, his ERA had ballooned above 4.50 and he was looking for answers. “I’m just trying to keep on level ground,” he told the press after a particularly difficult start. “Go out there and battle.”
Eventually, he could battle no longer, landing on the IL with an amorphous arm injury. After weeks of uncertainty, he was finally diagnosed with rotator cuff tendonitis, ending his season. “Mentally, it’s been tough on me,” Pavano said of his inability to stay on the field. “There’s a point when you feel like you’ve abandoned your team. Obviously, I’d like to be out there helping these guys win. But that’s not the case.”
It appeared to be all systems go for 2006. But injuries again derailed his season, punctuated by an unfortunate nondisclosure in August. As he worked back from injury, Pavano was in an automobile accident that resulted in broken ribs. He failed to inform the Yankees until they had planned to activate him off the IL, at which point he was forced to reveal his inability to pitch. The ailing hurler took “full responsibility for making the wrong decision,” explaining he had hoped to be healthy enough to pitch once activated regardless of the new injury. “At the time, I thought it was something I could get through,” he said at the time. “I figured I could pitch through it and it would get better. It didn’t get better.”
This time, Pavano had lost even his usual defenders. “Of course I’m angry,” said Cashman simply. Perhaps more importantly, the press corps which had hailed Pavano’s blue-collar work ethic a mere 18 months prior had completed a full reversal. As Tyler Kepner began his article in The New York Times announcing the surprise rib injury, “Carl Pavano continues to find new ways to let down the Yankees. The difference now is that the team is more than disappointed. It’s angry.”
The rib injury would keep the embattled Pavano from pitching in 2006 altogether. Despite his frustration with the circumstances of the injury, Cashman continued to give lip service to defending a free agent signing who had given little in return halfway through the deal. “I know there’s a lot of stuff flying around that he doesn’t want to pitch here, but he’s been held back by physical issues, and they’ve all been legitimate,” the GM said, adding, ”Players can’t play through marble-sized bone chips.“
Others in the organization were less sure. ”You have to walk into this clubhouse, dress next to these guys and carry your share of the load,“ Torre said of Pavano’s inability to contribute. “That’s what it amounts to. If that’s a little tough to do at first, so be it.” As Pavano prepared a comeback attempt in the spring of 2007, the club’s longest-tenured starter had some pointed words for his rotation-mate. “It didn’t look good from a player’s and teammate’s standpoint,” the usually reserved Mike Mussina said. “Was everything coincidence? Over and over again? I don’t know.”
Remarkably, given the apparent ambivalence about his return within the organization, Pavano was handed the ball on Opening Day after an injury to Chien-Ming Wang. Options were limited given the team’s injury woes at the time, but once again, he had a chance to let his play do the talking. And, once again, that opportunity was short-lived. After just two starts, Pavano went on the shelf with an elbow injury that ended up requiring Tommy John surgery.
By then, Mussina and some of his teammates even took to referring to the injured list as “the Pavano.” In an early 2007 interview from Tom Verducci’s The Yankee Years, the Moose made this biting comment:
“Our problem right now is we have too many pitchers on the 15-day Pavano … That’s what it’s officially called now. Did you know that? The Pavano. His body just shut down from actually pitching for six weeks. It’s like when you get an organ transplant and your body rejects it. His body rejected pitching. It’s not used to it.”
Pavano didn’t return until late August 2008, by which point the Yankees had fallen to the fringes of the playoff race and no one really cared about Pavano playing out the string. In all, Pavano would make just 26 starts for New York — less than a full season’s worth — over the course of his four years.
As he wound down his remarkably fruitless tenure in pinstripes, Pavano gave his side of the story in an interview with Kepner, airing grievances about the Yankees’ handling of his injuries. “A lot of times when I was in Tampa, I was really angry, because I’m away from my team, and I’m down there not getting the support that you feel you need to be successful,” Pavano said. “You know people are doubting you that should be helping you. You know people are kicking you when you’re down, and they should be picking you up. That’s the nature of this environment.”
In particular, Pavano placed blame on the team’s doctor, Stuart Hershon, who he felt had not appropriately diagnosed him at key junctures. “When they reported I had rotator cuff tendinitis, I actually had a stress fracture in my humerus bone,” he said of the pivotal 2005 injury that derailed his debut season and began his unraveling in New York. “It wasn’t rotator cuff tendinitis. It was just misdiagnosed.” He also took accountability for his role in pitching through injury. “I wish I had been smart enough to just get it right,” Pavano said. “Say something, make sure something was taken care of, instead of just keeping pitching and thinking it was going to get better.”
Cashman once again defended Pavano on the way out. “At the end of the day, he was hurt,” he said. “People always say, ‘Why do you stick up for him? Is it because you signed him?’ I’m just being objective. The guy, I know, can pitch when he’s healthy. He just hasn’t been healthy. It’s not because he mentally wanted it that way. It just happened.”
In a painful turn for Yankees fans, their GM would be proven right. After splitting 2009 between Cleveland and Minnesota, the veteran returned to the Twins in 2010 for his age-34 season. He proceeded to post one of the best seasons of his career, winning 17 games for a division-winning squad.
Perhaps the greatest twist of the knife, given Pavano’s inability to stay on the field in New York, is that he led the league that year with seven complete games while blowing past the 200-inning threshold — a feat he’d repeat the following year. The only solace the Yankees faithful could take in Pavano’s resurrection in Minnesota was that he lost both of his postseason starts against his former team, one each in ‘09 and ‘10.
Pavano retired after the 2012 season at the age of 36. His career was a mass of contradictions — the pitcher praised for his tenacity and ridiculed for his lack of commitment, the top prospect who found some of his greatest success after injuries had sapped his premier stuff, the playoff hero accused of folding under New York’s bright lights.
Was he was a great pitcher felled by unavoidable injury who unfairly had his reputation tarnished in the process? Was he a talented player whose motivation was not consistent enough to sustain a successful career? More than 20 years after he signed with the Yankees, it’s difficult to say. Without question, though, his contract will forever be remembered as one of the worst in team history.
See more of the “50 Most Notable Yankees Free Agent Signings in 50 Years” series here.
Frank Schwindel replaced Anthony Rizzo at first base after the big selloff in 2021, and actually hit pretty well: .342/.389/.613 with 13 home runs in 56 games, enough to get him some downballot Rookie of the Year votes.
He didn’t hit as well in 2022 and the team, picked over by the selloff, didn’t play very well early on. Thus Schwindel was called on to pitch in three blowouts.
The Cubs were losing 12-5 to the Cardinals June 3 at Wrigley Field heading to the ninth inning, so Schwindel was summoned to replace Mark Leiter Jr. And Schwindel threw pretty well for a while, retiring the first two Cardinals he faced. Then Corey Dickerson and Lars Nootbaar homered off him, and Schwindel wound up popping up to end the game. The Cubs lost 14-5.
Nine days later the Cubs were visiting Yankee Stadium for the last of a three-game series. In the first of those games, the Cubs lost 2-1 in 13 innings, using nine pitchers. The second contest was an 8-0 blowout, with Matt Swarmer and Michael Rucker taking one for the team, Swarmer serving up a team record six home runs.
So when the Yankees started pounding Cubs pitching in that third game of the series, Schwindel warmed up his pitching arm again. The Cubs trailed 17-4 going into the ninth inning.
The pitch was — and I believe remains — the slowest pitch ever measured in the pitch tracking era (since 2008) that was hit for a home run.
Weird, but fun. The Cubs lost the game 18-4. It was the sixth loss in what would become a 10-game losing streak.
Three days later, the Cubs were being blown out again, this time at Wrigley Field against the Padres, in what would become the ninth loss in that streak.
They were losing 16-5 when Schwindel entered to throw the ninth. Schwindel surrendered another homer, this one to Luke Voit, and two more runs, making the final score Padres 19, Cubs 5.
That streak was one of the most dreadful in Cubs history. The Cubs lost the three games in which Schwindel pitched by a combined score of 51-14, and from the first of those three games through the end of that 10-game losing streak, the Cubs went 1-11 and were outscored 105-41.
That wasn’t a good Cubs season. But at least Schwindel entertained us, a bit, anyway.
Jimmy Butler has played for the Bulls, Timberwolves, 76ers, Heat and Warriors in his career [Reuters]
Golden State Warriors forward Jimmy Butler will miss the rest of the season after tearing the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee.
Butler, 36, sustained the injury in the third quarter of the Warriors' 135-112 win over the Miami Heat on Monday.
His agent Bernie Lee confirmed the news in a statement to ESPN, calling it a "gut punch" to Butler and the Warriors team.
After a mixed start to the season, the Warriors have won 12 of their past 16 games and are eighth in the Western Conference, with a record of 25 win and 19 losses.
The top six teams in each conference qualify directly for the play-offs, with the teams ranked seventh to 10th competing in the play-in tournament.
Butler's injury leaves the Warriors facing a decision on how to approach the rest of their season and the market before the trade deadline on 5 February.
Under coach Steve Kerr and with star point guard Stephen Curry, the Warriors have won four NBA titles since 2015 but have been a fading force since their last championship win in 2022.
The Warriors acquired Butler from the Heat in February 2025 to give Curry, 37, a star team-mate to support another championship bid, but must now consider whether to seek further reinforcements or rebuild for the future.
However, Lee is confident six-time All-Star Butler, who is contracted with the Warriors to the end of the 2026-27 season, will bounce back from this injury blow to win his first NBA title.
"I've known for over 10 years now that Jimmy is going to win a championship before he is done," said Lee. "My belief in that is unwavering."
Nevertheless, Sundqvist is out on Tuesday, as is Dylan Holloway, who returned Sunday after missing 15 games with a high ankle sprain and will be monitored as he returns to full time play and not be pushed on Tuesday to give another three full days before the Blues' next game.
In their places, Robby Fabbri and Jonatan Berggren will be slotted into the lineup.
Joel Hofer, a Winnipeg native, who is tied for the NHL lead with four shutouts this season and is 9-4-0 in his past 13 starts, will get the start in goal; he sports a 1.69 goals-against average and .939 save percentage in six games against the Jets, who are playing the second of back to back games after losing 2-0 to the Chicago Blackhawks on Monday.
The lineup will be known in pregame, but with two changes among skaters, there will be some switches from Sunday in the Blues' first visit in this building since the fated 'Manitoba Miracle' from Game 7 of the Western Conference first round last spring.
- - -
Blues Projected Lineup:
Otto Stenberg-Brayden Schenn-Jimmy Snuggerud
Jake Neighbours-Dalibor Dvorsky-Jordan Kyrou
Pavel Buchnevich-Nick Bjugstad-Jonatan Berggren
Alexey Toropchenko-Robby Fabbri-Nathan Walker
Philip Broberg-Colton Parayko
Tyler Tucker-Justin Faulk
Cam Fowler-Logan Mailloux
Joel Hofer will start in goal; Jordan Binnington will be the backup.
The healthy scratch includes Matthew Kessel. Dylan Holloway (lower body/load management), Pius Suter (high ankle sprain), Robert Thomas (lower body), Mathieu Joseph (elbow infection) and Oskar Sundqvist (skate cut) are out.
Eric Comrie is projected to start in goal; Connor Hellebuyck would be the backup.
Healthy scratches could include Gustav Nyquist and Danil Zhilkin. Haydn Fleury (back), Colin Miller (knee), Neal Pionk (undisclosed) and Elias Salomonsson (illness) could all be out.
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Like a lot of NBA players, Tyrese Maxey’s pregame routine includes a post-shootaround nap. That nap happens to occur during the 2 p.m. hour, the very time the league was set to announce its starters Monday for the 2026 NBA All-Star Game in Los Angeles.
So, when the news broke, everyone was excited for him, including rookie teammate VJ Edgecombe, who was blowing up Maxey’s phone.
“I had my alarm set for 2 o’clock,” the rookie said. “I was going to protest if he didn’t make it as a starter. Would’ve been a problem.”
But Maxey didn’t answer.
He was asleep.
“I’m like, ‘why is he calling me?’ And I answered and he’s screaming and showing me the TV,” Maxey said pregame Monday. “Then my mom called me and then I said, ‘listen, I’m going back to sleep. I got work tonight.‘”
That’s a pretty good encapsulation of Maxey. He was grateful and humbled by the honor, but ultimately just wanted to hoop.
And what better way to cap off the day than by helping snap his team’s two-game losing skid with a 113-104 win over the Indiana Pacers on Martin Luther King Jr. Day?
In his sixth NBA season, Maxey is an All-Star starter. This will also mark the second appearance in the game for the 25-year-old. He’s earned it on the floor, posting career highs across the board in points, assists, rebounds, steals, blocks and made threes per game. He earned it from the fan voting, finishing with the fourth-most overall, the second-most in the conference, and the most for an American-born player.
It wasn’t Maxey’s finest game of the season Monday. The Pacers loaded up on him in a big way through the first three quarters, forcing him to turn defense into offense — and that he did. Maxey recorded 29 points, eight assists and a career-high eight steals.
He’s just the 10th Sixer to ever record at least eight steals in a game. The New Orleans Pelicans’ Herb Jones is the only other player in the NBA to have at least eight steals in a game this season. He also recorded a block and is averaging over a block a game this season. If he finishes the season averaging over a block game, he’d be the first player at 6-foot-2 or shorter to do so in league history (since blocks became an official stat), per Stathead.
It’s just another way Maxey can help his team win games.
“This is kind of how I played in high school,” he said. “I was able to get in the passing lanes, get steals, get some on-ball steals, little strip steals or blocks, whatever they call them. … I just want to make an impact on the defensive end. I feel like I’ve done that this year.”
The hope is no doubt for Edgecombe to be on the receiving end of one of those calls in the not-so-distant future. After a disagreement on the bench went viral last week, both guys sort of laughed the whole thing off. They’re competitive. They want to win. That’s why they’ve bonded so quickly on and off the court.
The rookie has savored the opportunity to play with a like-minded veteran in Maxey.
“His work ethic, his leadership, his character, and obviously his style of play,” Edgecombe said. “He’s an unbelievable player, really special talent, and I get to watch him every day, just go out there and work.”
It feels like just yesterday Maxey was a rookie heaping praise on Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons for making All-Star teams and getting accolades. It’s clear now the torch is being passed.
“That’s a great accomplishment, especially as a starter,” Embiid, the seven-time All-Star, said. “It’s only the beginning. It’s a testament to the work he’s put in, and him taking another step this year. That’s amazing.”
It’s hard to believe, but the 2025-26 regular season is more than halfway done, meaning the race is really heating up to secure a spot in the Big Dance that will begin in two months. It’s not a shock to see the usual suspects like Arizona, Duke, Connecticut and Michigan at the top of the sport.
However, there are some that have surprises — good and bad — that not many saw coming. In the preseason, some teams figured to be fighting for a spot in the NCAA Tournament, but have become bonafide contenders that realistically can make a run. On the other side, squads that had reasonable expectations have fallen flat, and are in jeopardy of missing out on March Madness.
Arguably the story of the season, it's been a dream ride for the Cornhuskers. They are 18-0, the best start in program history, with impressive wins against Michigan State and Illinois to fuel a 5-0 Quad 1 record and No. 6 NET ranking.
Nebraska wasn’t considered an NCAA tournament team before the season began, but are in position to be a top-four seed come March. That would position them well to get its first NCAA tournament win, the only Power conference team yet to achieve the feat.
Vanderbilt
Predicted to finish 11th in the SEC preseason poll, the Commodores have thrust themselves into the top of the league, far from the bubble spot they started the season in. Vanderbilt started the campaign 16-0, matching its best start ever.
It has lost two straight games, but that shouldn’t spoil what has been a remarkable second season for Mark Byington. Not only is Vanderbilt (16-2, 3-2) poised to get back-to-back tournament appearances for the first time since 2016-17, but could get its best seed ever (No. 3 in 1993).
Virginia
The ACC is vastly better this season, and helping that cause is Virginia. The Cavaliers are road warriors, with all their Quad 1 games so far away from home. It’s impressive since they are 4-1 in the category, including major wins at Texas, Louisville and SMU to boost their top 15 NET ranking.
Ryan Odom has brought some swagger back to Charlottesville in his first season with the Cavaliers, something it’s been lacking for several years. Virginia (16-2, 5-1) is on the path to getting back to March after missing it in 2025 for the second time in four seasons.
Clemson
Another ACC team, Brad Brownell has become an under-the-radar coach who is consistently putting together solid teams at Clemson. After starting the season 7-3, the Tigers have won nine straight, including wins against SMU and Miami to propel its perfect start (6-0) in conference play.
The Tigers (16-3) didn’t start the season in tournament conversation, but are capable of capturing its first ACC crown since 1990. Another March Madness bid would be three-straight, something Clemson hasn’t done since 2008-11.
Villanova
After Villanova struggled to find momentum under previous coach Kevin Neputne, Kevin Willard is bringing back optimism not seen since Jay Wright had the Wildcats as a national power. Villanova did have some tough results against BYU and Michigan, but have handled business everywhere else. Like Clemson, the Wildcats are good on the road.
The Big East feels open after Connecticut, and Villanova (14-4, 5-2) has the inside track to be in the top four of the league. After so many seasons being on the bubble and missing out on Selection Sunday, it feels more certain Villanova will hear its name called for the first time since 2022.
Saint Louis
Not many realize it, but the Atlantic 10 has a great team in Saint Louis. The Billikins are 17-1, the only blemish a one-point loss to Stanford. They have handled nearly every opponent they’ve faced, and made the most of the few opportunities so far with a 2-0 Quad 1 record.
It’s always tough for teams outside the Power conferences to get at-large spots, yet Saint Louis is building a case to be in regardless of what happens. The No. 22 NET ranking is extremely impressive, and could be why the A-10 could get multiple teams in depending on how things shake out.
Miami (Ohio)
The quiet undefeated team in the country, the RedHawks are off to their best start ever at 19-0. While Miami hasn’t played any Quad 1 games and is just 3-0 in Quad 2 games, it’s worth noting a team reaching the middle of January without a blemish.
Even though the RedHawks likely need the MAC title to get in, they are making quite the case to be in regardless. At this rate, Miami could be a single-digit seed.
NCAA basketball disappointments
UCLA
The arrival of transfer Donovan Dent figured to make the Bruins a contender in the Big Ten, but it hasn’t paid off and it’s been a mediocre campaign for UCLA. At 12-6, it doesn’t own any marquee victories and has put up some head-scratching performances in big games, owning a 1-5 record in Quad 1 games.
UCLA opened the season in the conversation for a top-four seed, but instead will be fighting for its tournament life the rest of the way. It makes sense to leave it out of the field now, and the Bruins need a complete turnaround to get out of the bubble.
“Highly disappointed, our inability to play defense. I offer no excuses. Blame me … we’re not going to win meaningful games if we can’t stop the other team.”
Mark Pope’s second season at his alma mater has been a rocky one, with inconsistently plaguing the season. Kentucky started the season with a rough 5-4 mark that really soured Big Blue Nation, but it has somewhat righted the ship with a 7-2 record since. Still, the Wildcats are 3-5 in Quad 1 games.
Not all hope is lost, but Kentucky (12-6, 3-2) has to find a rhythm to avoid tumbling down toward a potential double-digit seed, something that has happened only once, in 2008.
St. John’s
There was hope Rick Pitino would be able to replicate last season’s magical run, but some early season duds have ruined the vibes in Queens. The Red Storm (13-5, 6-1) set themselves up with a challenging nonconference schedule and couldn’t capitalize with a 7-4 start. There aren’t notable wins, and the Quad 3 loss to Providence doesn’t help.
The Big East isn’t daunting so there isn’t a real concern for St. John’s tournament stake, but not having a quality resume means there isn’t much wiggle room to move its way up the seed line.
Oregon
The Ducks brought talent back for another promising season, only for it to turn into a disaster. After starting 4-0, Oregon is 4-10, losing badly to high quality teams and falling to teams it was expected to beat. As a result, Oregon is 0-9 in Quad 1 and 2 games, and it doesn’t get much better after it with a 3-1 Quad 3 mark.
It’s one of the biggest disappointments, with Oregon starting the season as a No. 6 seed and now completely out of the tournament conversation. It will take a miracle for the Ducks to get back in. Jackson Shelstad's season-ending injury won't help.
Creighton
Despite losing key veterans, there was a sense Creighton could still be a contender. Instead it’s shown the Bluejays have plenty of work to do. It was a rough 5-5 start with plenty of blowout losses and it hasn’t really improved since; it’s standing at 11-8 with a tough 1-6 Quad 1 record and No. 55 NET ranking.
Like St. John’s, Creighton is still in the top half of the Big East but a loss to Providence showed how vulnerable it is. It will have to go on a solid winning streak or two to stay away from the bubble.
Missouri
An 8-0 start gave optimism for Missouri, but that quick beginning has been forgotten by going 5-5 since. The opponents got tougher and it hurt the Tigers, with a 2-4 record against Quad 1 opponents, including tough losses to Notre Dame and LSU. The NET rankings of 68 is dangerously low for an at-large candidate.
Missouri hasn’t given a solid case to be a tournament-worthy team, and it needs to stockpile wins so it can jump up the NET. Dennis Gates is in danger of missing the tournament again.
Marquette
Perhaps there is no team in a worse position than Marquette. There was a chance the newcomers could keep the Golden Eagles afloat, but the season appears to be washed. They have lost nine of their past 10 and at 6-13 with an 0-11 Quad 1 and 2 record, there’s a near-zero chance it gets in the field.
By the end of it, Shaka Smart may be on the hot seat, as this is set to be the first time he misses the tournament at Marquette.
Memphis
Penny Hardaway’s best season is on track to be followed up with one of his toughest, with the exodus of talent that left Memphis very evident. It started 4-7, with nearly every loss to tournament-caliber teams. The Tigers are 1-7 against Quad 1 and 2 teams, and the No. 108 NET ranking is a bad mark.
Memphis has started its American Conference play off well but that won’t get in the good graces of the selection committee, with not many quality opportunities left. It’ll be the automatic bid or bust for the Tigers.
The dust has settled on the regular season series between Boston and Detroit right at the midway point in the season, culminating in a 104-103 Pistons win that came down to the final possession.
After four games, we have a pretty clear idea of what to expect of this matchup between the Eastern Conference’s two best teams. If there’s one thing we’ve learned from this series alone, it’s that Detroit has maintained a clear identity in J.B. Bickerstaff’s second year in charge.
They’re nasty, physical and a genuine pain to deal with. The Pistons have no problem turning a game into a drudgerous affair, in fact I think they prefer it that way. With that style comes a playoff-like intensity in every game they play. Although in the case of Boston specifically, things don’t exactly appear to be all Kumbaya.
Dust-up here between Isaiah Stewart and Jaylen Brown
But that playoff intensity is important because as it stands, these two teams have a real chance of seeing each other in some capacity in the postseason, and we have a pretty clear idea of what that hypothetical series would look like if the season ended today.
In some ways, this matchup gives strong hints of the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals against the Miami Heat, who took the Celtics to seven games with a centerpiece star, a physically imposing big man and a collection of role players built to make life a living hell on opposing offenses. When Duncan Robinson signed his three-year contract to join the Pistons, it was meant to be that the Pistons’ transformation from a confusing amalgamation of players with no clear fit into a team with an identity built for a seven-game series was all but solidified.
Outside of the 3-1 series record, the raw head-to-head numbers tell us a compelling story. When these two teams play, it consistently comes down to the wire, and we’ve gathered a few observations that are worth highlighting if these two ever see each other again this spring.
Jaylen Brown can (and will) carry the load
Jaylen Brown has been a downhill force in this four-game series, averaging 35 points on 44/34.5/72 splits. In this most recent loss, Brown was often the sole source of offense in the first half, before things opened up for Sam Hauser and Anfernee Simons in the third quarter.
In the fourth quarter, Brown aggressively sought his spots, right down to the very last possession, one that generated a fadeaway jumper at the elbow that had a chance of bouncing in.
Considering the score differential of this series is a tight +11 in favor of Detroit, we’ve seen a heavy dose of clutch minutes between these two teams. If there is any semblance of playoff-like basketball in a regular season setting, it’s within those 5-under-5 opportunities.
In the case of the Celtics, that means a lot of Jaylen Brown isolations. Regardless of what they throw his way, Brown attacks with brute force and finishes in pirouette form. It’s a fascinating collision of elite-level attacking against elite-level defensive pressure.
Brown holds a 43% usage rate against the Pistons, higher than his 36% usage for the season (for reference, he is second in the league behind Luka Doncic in usage, who is at 38%). 39% of his field goal attempts against Detroit came off possessions where he had 3-6 dribbles, and 24.5% were off seven or more dribbles before firing.
In the majority of his late-game chances with the ball, Brown is seal hunting.
Specifically, he’s Duncan-hunting. The two are well-acquainted from years of Miami/Boston battles, and this year has been no different, with Brown consistently seeking that mismatch switch. In total, Brown has matched up with Robinson for a grand total of 5:04 in four games, and he’s scored 32 points on 56.5% shooting from the field and 67% from three.
To put that in perspective, his 32 points on Robinson is the most he’s scored on any one matchup so far this season, even more than Tobias Harris, who has guarded Brown more than anyone to this point with 28:47 matchup minutes where Brown has scored 31 points on 30% efficiency.
All this to say, Brown wants to attack this hard-nosed defense head-on. He’s taken no less than 25 shots in this series with a great deal of success, but that activity can also come at the cost of offensive flow.
Clearly, Brown takes on the challenge to win these game, and he knows he can score against this team, but it does open up some hints of Brown’s past tunnel vision. Detroit, especially with Robinson matched up, has no problems collapsing its help, and last night Brown’s four turnovers were the most on the team (although to his credit, just one happened in the fourth quarter).
Who’s on Cade?
The Celtics have done an overall pretty good job on Cade Cunningham, who had his worst outing against Boston on Monday after shooting 4-of-17 for 16 points. Half of his scoring output came from the free throw line, where he went 8-of-10, and a lot of credit should go to Jaylen Brown and Jordan Walsh, who spent the bulk of the time guarding him, holding the All-Star starter to a combined four points on 2-of-9 shooting.
But Cunningham, like a true superstar, is more than just a bucket-getter. Even in an off-night, Cunningham still dished out 14 assists without a single turnover to his name, while having three stocks on the other end.
The challenge is not in just holding Cade from catching fire as a scorer, it’s in stymieing his entire flow. To completely stifle Cunningham is to stifle the entire foundation upon which the Pistons offense is built. That’s a huge task. That’d be like attempting to remove the entire engine of a Ford F-150 with someone already behind the wheel.
But in Boston’s collection of wing defenders, who’s been the most successful attempting it? The aforementioned Walsh and Brown may be the best answers.
Walsh is third in matchup minutes against Cunningham this season, behind Dyson Daniels and Davion Mitchell, and he’s been up to the challenge. His defense against Cade in Boston’s win on Nov. 26 was a major factor in that clutch closeout, and in total, he’s held him to 17 points, five assists and four turnovers on 31% shooting in three games.
In nine total minutes this series, Brown has held Cunningham to 2-of-10 shooting for five points with five assists, and just one shooting foul.
Cade has found ways to consistently attack his own mismatches to get to his 29-point average in his four Boston matchups, generating the most success against Derrick White and Payton Pritchard. White rarely found himself guarding Cunningham last night, in fact it was on just three partial possessions, but in their four games, Cunningham’s 20 shot attempts against White are the second most he’s taken against any player, and he’s shooting 50% on those looks.
To help on Cade is to sell out on the notion that he’ll make the right read, but to a player you’d rather live with beating you. That was the case last night, and Cunningham assisted on four Robinson threes and 11 of Tobias Harris’ team-high 25 points. Cunningham plays winning basketball in this Detroit ecosystem, and it’s a fun challenge to consider the pros and cons of the many approaches you can have to dealing with his offensive gravity.
Detroit puts Boston’s rebounding outlook into greater focus
Even as Boston’s emphasis on defensive rebounding has turned that issue from glaring to middle of the road, this matchup in particular really shows just how far apart Boston’s 16th-ranked defensive rebounding is from Detroit’s fourth-best offensive board-crashing.
The Celtics are not alone in this dilemma. The Pistons average 13 offensive rebounds a game, led by Jalen Duren’s four per outing, which is third best in the league behind Steven Adams and Donovan Clingan.
So it’s not just a Celtics issue, yet the Celtics do in fact struggle especially hard against this specific matchup. Detroit’s 15.3 offensive rebounds per game against Boston is well above their season average, and in total, they’ve won the collective rebounding battle 191-164.
It’s worth noting the Celtics have progressively gotten better in this department these last two matchups, even winning the glass battle 45-41 on Monday thanks to a 14-9 offensive rebounding difference headlined by a combined nine offensive boards between Jaylen Brown and Derrick White, but it is still an issue this matchup presents. In a series that drags out to six or seven games, the chances of low-scoring slugfests only rise, and the team that can create more second chance opportunities through their rebounding and paint scoring will have the advantage.
The Pistons and Celtics are both top-10 teams in second-chance points (Celtics are third, Pistons sixth), but where the interior scoring differs is in overall points in the paint, which Detroit is second in with 58.3 compared to Boston’s 28th-ranked 44 points inside.
There’s no debate that Luka Garza and Neemias Queta are generally good rebounding and interior bigs, but is this the kind of conference matchup that Brad Stevens looks at and identifies as proof of additional frontcourt assistance? Do they stand firm and await the return of Jayson Tatum, one of the league’s best rebounding forwards who’s averaged double-doubles in each of the past three postseasons?
Only time will tell, but the battle on the boards has been a huge element to this regular season series, and it’s only amplified once you hit a series format.
The Celtics have three months and 40 games left before any real conversations about this matchup possibility begin to take shape. It makes this a bizarre conversation to even be thinking about by mid-January, yet we’ve got four legitimately entertaining games’ worth of film we can unpack from the Eastern Conference’s two best teams in case they do ultimately meet come playoff time.
PINELLAS PARK, Fla. (AP) — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Tuesday that he owes Indiana Gov. Mike Braun some key lime pie and stone crabs for losing a bet after Indiana's 27-21 win over Miami earned the college football team the national championship.
DeSantis said at a news conference on nursing education that he will be sending the key lime pie, as well as stone crabs from the famous Miami Beach eatery, Joe's Stone Crab, to the Indiana governor due to his losing wager on the Miami Hurricanes at the hands of the Indiana Hoosiers Monday night in Miami Gardens, Florida.
The Florida governor said he had been promised sugar cream pie, also known as Hoosier pie, and pork tenderloin from the Indiana governor if Miami had won.
DeSantis joked that it might be quicker just to drop off the pie and stone crabs at Marco Island, a barrier island on Florida's southwest coast which is popular with Midwestern vacationers and snowbirds this time of year.
“You know, honestly, half of Indiana is in Marco Island this time of year,” DeSantis said. “Can I just bring this stuff to Marco Island? It would be a lot easier for us.”
Over the past 24 hours or so, the Vegas Golden Knights and San Jose Sharks have made a key addition each. While two Pacific Division clubs strengthen their teams via trades, the Los Angeles Kings remain outside of a playoff spot in the Western Conference.
With the Kings' divisional rivals improving and adding assets to their rosters, the pressure on GM Ken Holland will only grow leading into the Olympic roster freeze and to the March 6 NHL trade deadline.
The pressure won't necessarily be growing because the Kings need to make a move, although that could help in the short term. But the spotlight will be on the team and Holland in terms of the direction Los Angeles will be going as spring approaches.
As mentioned, the Kings are just outside of a playoff spot as they're sixth in the Pacific. Furthermore, coming off the weekend, the Kings were tied in points with three other teams in their division, including the Sharks, who are now third in the Pacific after a win on Monday.
The status of Los Angeles' divisional counterparts has been made clear.
It was a no-brainer that the Golden Knights continue to add, and they made a big move by acquiring defenseman Rasmus Andersson from the Calgary Flames. He'll be a massive boost to Vegas' back end as they already lead the division with two games in hand on second-place Edmonton Oilers.
As for the Sharks, they've been sellers for the last number of seasons. Although with a decent first half to the regular season, they find themselves in the playoff race.
For the Kings, going into the season, they were expected to be playoff contenders, and naturally, they'd be buyers as the trade deadline gets closer.
However, with their start to this season, and the trends Los Angeles has shown lately, the team's direction isn't so clear anymore.
They have 51 points in 48 games. Thirteen of those points come from the team's 13 overtime defeats, as they own a 19-16-13 record.
Mitch Marner and Anze Kopitar (Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images)
Given the Kings' mark and position in the standings, it's tough to say whether they are a seller or a buyer. If anything is clear, it's that they shouldn't pursue one direction with any sort of aggression.
To be sure, the Kings have the future assets to dish out, including three first-round picks and four second-rounders over the next three seasons, as well as several notable prospects.
However, there is no guarantee Los Angeles will emerge from the ruins of the playoff race and set themselves as a distinct playoff team. It wouldn't make sense to risk the franchise's future for rental in a struggling season.
Therefore, they may just need to take the status of conservative buyers. Some light additions won't turn them into Stanley Cup favorites, but may be the necessary path for Holland to push the team to the playoffs at least.
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The Vancouver Canucks continued their rebuild on Monday as they traded Kiefer Sherwood to the San Jose Sharks. In return, Vancouver received two second-round picks as well as defenceman Cole Clayton. While Sherwood is the team leader in goals, he is an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season, which made this trade almost necessary, considering where the Canucks are in the standings.
After Vancouver's 11th straight loss on Monday, three players met with the media to discuss the game. During the availabilities, all were asked about Sherwood and the impact he had on the organization. First was Marcus Pettersson, who discussed how the Canucks overall record forced this type of trade.
"Yeah, it's a big loss," said Pettersson. "You know, the energy that he brings every day. That's the business we are in. When you lose games, stuff like that is going to happen. Like I said, the energy that he brought every day. His fiery play, we are going to miss and how good of a person he is, too. It's always tough to say by to teammates and friends. But like I said, that's the business you are in when you lose games.
Up next was Evander Kane, who is in the same situation as Sherwood. The 34-year-old has also been involved in trade rumours as he is also an unrestricted free agent on July 1. When asked about Sherwood, Kane spoke about not just what he brought on the ice, but he friendship they developed over the past few months.
"Woody, you know, we became kind of fast friends, especially off the ice," said Kane. "You know, really, really good guy. Brought an energy that you don't see a whole lot in the NHL, and, you know, really fun to watch and be around. So wishing him the best of luck in San Jose there. And I'm sure he'll add a lot to that group."
Jan 3, 2026; Vancouver, British Columbia, CAN; Vancouver Canucks forward Kiefer Sherwood (44) reacts in warm up prior to a game against the Boston Bruins at Rogers Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Frid-Imagn Images
The third player to speak was Max Sassson. Just like Sherwood, the 25-year-old is a late bloomer, as he only made his NHL debut last season. When asked about his now former teammate, Sasson spoke about Sherwood's leadership skills, especially when it came to helping out the younger guys on the team.
"I had a long talk with him today," said Sasson, "And I'll continue to stay in touch. He's given me a lot of advice ever since day one up here. And I think, even when we were in Abbotsford, that's a guy that we talked about all the time that we can learn from and strive to be one day. That you know, maybe just because you weren't in the NHL at 21, you can still find it. He's playing his best hockey right now at 29, so yeah, we're gonna miss him. He was a great friend, but also an unbelievable leader to all of us."
In the span of a year and a half, Sherwood went from relatively unknown to becoming a fan favourite in Vancouver. He scored 36 goals and recorded 63 points in 122 games while also throwing 672 hits. Ultimately, Sherwood will be missed in the market, not just by the fan base but also in the Canucks locker room.
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Dominic Smith missed the final 15 games of the Giants’ season, and while that time didn’t wind up impacting what’ll happen to his career in 2026, it wound up being a huge pivot point for the fate of the San Francisco Giants. The postseason might’ve slipped through their fingers though moment he strained his hamstring.
Just a couple of days before he went down with that season-ending injury, I offered up this glowing profile, supposing that this steadyhanded journeyman is precisely what the Giants needed to ride the rapids of the season. Though it could be argued that he was a bit of a Hail Mary move by the front office, his impact was akin to those grizzled veteran additions Brian Sabean made and that always seemed to work out.
Dominic Smith has been a good Giant this season. Since joining the squad, he’s third in Win Probability Added, behind Matt Chapman and Willy Adames. Indeed, as a Giant, he’s 22nd in MLB in FanGraphs’ Clutch Statistic and that leads the team (keeping in mind that Chapman & Adames have had way more plate appearances to dilute that stat).
His three biggest moments of the season:
August 6 at Pittsburgh (+0.293 WPA)
This one helped the Giants get back over .500 after that winless homestand that dropped them below .500 for the first time all season.
This one netted a split with a division rival early enough in the season when anything seemed possible. It pulled them to within a game of San Diego and just 3 back of the Dodgers.
This one broke a 7-game home losing streak and wound up being only the 2nd win of a 9-game homestand. That win kicked off a 24-game stretch where the Giants went 16-8 and Smith slashed .290/.313/.435 with a pair of homers, 3 doubles, and 13 RBI, a +0.341 WPA overall. The team was just half a game out of the third Wild Card after this run.
After he went down, the Giants went 6-9 over their final stretch of games.
Smith was brought in to replace LaMonte Wade Jr. He never attained a nickname like “Late Night,” but he wound up serving a similar function. He also stepped into the clutch veteran roll that Wilmer Flores’s age/health had pushed him out of, and did it almost like a handoff, since Wilmer had seemingly carried the team for the first month of the season.
Smith gave the Giants a chance to win nearly every day and in his absence they simply couldn’t. He wasn’t a foundational talent like Devers, Adames, Chapman, and Patrick Bailey, but it turns out he was the load bearing poster of 2025. It wasn’t his fault the team couldn’t get its act together enough for that to not be the case, but credit to him for stepping up to be that guy for as long as he could. It’s the sort of story baseball gives us nearly every season, and even when things don’t go as hoped for with the team overall, it’s nice to remember the individual accomplishments like these.
College football has officially wrapped up, so it’s a great day to dive into NBA action with seven games on the board and a full slate of NBA player props.
I’ve found my three favorite NBA picks for the day, including Anthony Edwards lighting up the Jazz and Domantas Sabonis finding his form in a matchup against the Heat.
The Utah Jazz defense is bad enough as it is. Now, they’re playing the second half of a back-to-back and must try to contain Anthony Edwards.
The Minnesota Timberwolves star is putting up 29.6 points per game while shooting a ridiculous 41.8% from 3-point range. He now faces a Jazz team that’s dead last in defensive rating, and their perimeter defense is a big problem.
Utah surrenders the most 3-point attempts per game while allowing the second-highest opponent 3-point shooting percentage. Edwards has hit 4+ threes in five of his last six games, and he'll do it again tonight.
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
Where to watch: FDSN-North, KJZZ
Prop #2: Domantas Sabonis to record a double-double
Domantas Sabonis is still getting back up to speed after missing two months with a knee injury. Still, I’m betting we get a classic Sabonis performance when the Sacramento Kings host the Miami Heat.
The Heat are, of course, one of my favorite fades when it comes to rebounds. Their high pace and volume of shooting result in a lot of rebounds, and they surrender the second-most rebounds per game.
Sabonis has a rebounding total of 8.5, but instead of taking the Over, let’s back the big man to record his first double-double since his return.
The Golden State Warriors were dealt a huge blow with Jimmy Butler tearing his ACL. The Warriors lose one of their best defenders, and they already allow opposing point guards to shoot the sixth-highest percentage from beyond the arc this season.
Immanuel Quickley has had an up-and-down season for the Toronto Raptors, but he’s averaging 17.6 points per game over his last 13 games and has topped 15.5 points 10 times over that stretch.
He'll take advantage of this matchup as the Dubs try to find their bearings without Butler.
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The Colorado Avalanche's start to the season has been nothing but historic, despite a rough couple of recent weeks. With a record of 34-5-8 for 76 points, 47 games played, they are still on pace to break the 2022-23 Boston Bruins NHL single-season wins and points record.
There, players like Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar lead the way in their respective trophy voting. Goaltending, once a major red flag for this organization, has been a significant reason for its current success. So the question begs: could this team get better?
Well, the New York Rangers General Manager, Chris Drury, sent a letter to all Rangers fans a couple of days ago regarding their current lack of performance this season and the significant changes that should be coming to the lineup, both this season and going forward.
The most significant piece of news is that star winger Artemi Panarin, a pending UFA this summer, will not be receiving a contract extension, easily jumping the line and becoming the number one trade target for many teams trying to acquire him before the Olympic roster freeze on Feb.4 or the trade deadline on March 6.
Panarin has an $11.6 million cap hit and a full no-move clause, but with recent news of how the team's future looks, he might be willing to waive it for the right team that can fit his aspirations for a Stanley Cup and could offer the best trade package Drury might like for the Rangers.
This all comes back around to the Colorado Avalanche and how their season has begun. This is a team that is the definition of “cup or bust”, the window is starting to shrink, and with the team firing on all cylinders this season, there should be no doubt they make a move to two to improve this team.
Including Sportsnet insider Elliotte Friedman, and how he named the Avalanche alongside the Florida Panthers, Minnesota Wild, and Washington Capitals as names to watch in the Panarin trade mill. While frankly, I do agree that Panarin can come in and be a major contributor to this team, I don’t see General Manager Chris MacFarland and President of Hockey Operations Joe Sakic making the cap room to fit him without taking too much from this already successful roster.
As of writing (Jan. 20), the Avalanche have $1.7 million in cap space, and that's Logan O’Connor on LTIR, Joel Kiviranta on IR, and both Devon Toews and Gabriel Landeskog out week-to-week. To bring in Panarin, who would become the second-highest-paid player on this team, you're going to need to move more than just draft picks and prospects to make this deal work.
You're looking at moving players like Samuel Girard, Valeri Nichushkin, Ross Colton, and Artturi Lehkonen, and that's if the Rangers would even want any of the listed players. Even the players listed have trade-modified trade clauses, and while I doubt the Rangers are listed on theirs, if they are, there's another wrench in your plans, and now you have to pivot to another player to make the money work.
What about picks and prospects? Drury, in the letter, stated it was more of a retool and then rebuild, but despite that, the Avalanche doesn’t have much they could offer that would be super enticing.
Much was spent on acquiring Brock Nelson and more at last season's trade deadline, and they don’t have a first-, second-, or third-round draft pick in the 2026 Draft. So, unless Drury wants picks in the coming seasons or has scouts who like some of our prospects, our package is definitely not the best for competing with others.
Then there is the extension part. As stated, the salary cap is going up significantly, but if you're looking at who the Avalanche need to extend in the coming summers, adding Panarin to this list is going to make things really tough, especially for a guy who turns 35 next season and is already making $11.5 million.
They just extended Martin Necas' next season, who carries a cap hit of $11.5 million. Cale Makar is eligible for contract extension talks this summer, and that's going to be the number one focus this summer heading into next season.
So, unless Panarin is willing to take a steep pay cut, the Avalanche are going back to the situation where a majority of their money is invested in the top guys, which could affect their bottom-six and, in turn, depth scoring.
MacFarland and Sakic need to be smart come the trade deadline. This team is set up for postseason success, but how do you improve this roster without taking away from what already makes it successful? Panarin, even at his age, is a game-changer, but given how the Avalanche's cap, draft picks, and roster construction are right now, it's too risky to go after another big fish like him.
Anthony Edwards
Domantas Sabonis
Immanuel Quickley
