Here are five things to watch and predictions as the Mets and Cardinals play a three-game series at Citi Field starting on Tuesday at 7:10 p.m. on SNY.
5 things to watch
Francisco ... that's fun to say
The Mets' goal forFrancisco Alvarez, as relayed by manager Carlos Mendoza this past Friday, has been for Alvarez to return during this homestand.
And with Alvarez not experiencing any health hiccups over the weekend while rehabbing with Triple-A Syracuse, it seems likely he'll be activated before or during the series against the Cards.
Alvarez's return will give New York a player who had a 101 OPS+ (a tick above league average) before tearing his meniscus on a swing on May 12.
The initial timeline the club gave about Alvarez projected a six-to-eight week recovery, so him making it back in just about four weeks would be a relative miracle. But it shouldn't come as a surprise since Alvarez has often beaten estimated timelines.
Once Alvarez is back, it's unlikely he'll be asked to catch regularly from the jump. But he will also be an option at DH, giving the Mets another way to go when Alvarez isn't behind the plate.
The top three should be rested and ready
With Clay Holmes out, Kodai Senga struggling on his rehab assignment, David Peterson in the bullpen, and Jonah Tong back in the minors, the Mets have been working opener/bulk reliever games in when needed -- including on Sunday against the Padres, when Huascar Brazoban opened ahead of Sean Manaea.
For this series, though, the Mets should be able to roll with their three regular starting pitchers: Freddy Peralta, Christian Scott, and Nolan McLean.
That's because New York was off last Thursday and this Monday, allowing for Peralta to pitch on an extra day of rest on Tuesday, followed by Scott and McLean the next two days (with both of them on regular rest).
If the Mets do go that route, they'll have to get creative for one of their weekend matchups against the Braves -- either going with a bullpen game or calling someone up from the minors to start/serve as the bulk reliever.
The Bo Bichette turnaround seems to be here
I wrote last week that something felt different about Bichette's performance in the Mets' series-salvaging win over the Mariners. In that game, Bichette went 4-for-4 with three RBI and a run scored, and delivered a sacrifice fly in his other plate appearance.
Bichette carried his momentum into New York's series against the Padres in San Diego, going 5-for-13 with two doubles.
He is hitting .293/.341/.480 with three homers in 19 games since May 18.
Bichette's OPS+ for the season is up to just 75, so he still has a long way to go when it comes to climbing out of the rough start he had. But things are pointing up for him.
The Cardinals are overperforming
The Cards, despite starting the season in a rebuilding phase, enter this series with a 35-28 record and in possession of the first Wild Card in the National League.
While they have been a nice story, what they're doing feels unsustainable for a few reasons.
For one, their run differential (-2) suggests that they'll be regressing to the mean at some point. Of the 12 teams currently in playoff position, the Cardinals and Phillies are the only ones with a negative run differential.
Second, St. Louis' rotation will likely not be a strength as the season rolls on.
Michael McGreevey (2.99 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) is having a very nice year, but Matthew Liberatore (4.48 ERA, 1.50 WHIP), Dustin May (4.59 ERA, 1.29 WHIP), Kyle Leahy (4.42 ERA, 1.57 WHIP), and Andre Pallante (3.96 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) all profile as back-end starters.
Jordan Walker's breakout
Acter a solid rookie season followed by two poor years, Walker is a legitimate MVP candidate this season.
The 24-year-old is slashing .303/.362/.560 with 16 homers, 14 doubles, and 47 RBI over the first 62 games.
Walker still strikes out a lot and chases at a high rate, but most of his other metrics this year have been eye-popping.
He is in the 85th percentile or better when it comes to xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel percentage, hard hit percentage, and bat speed (he is in the 100th percentile there).
Predictions
Who will the MVP of the series be?
Ewing has been elite in center field and is holding his own at the plate -- currently on a five-game hitting streak.
Which Mets pitcher will have the best start?
Christian Scott
Scott fired 5.2 scoreless innings against the Padres his last time out.
Which Cardinals player will be a thorn in the Mets' side?
JJ Wetherholt
Wetherholt has cooled off after a blazing start, but is one of the best young hitters in the game.