The optimist’s case for Jonathan India

Aug 24, 2025; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Kansas City Royals second baseman Jonathan India (6) hits a double during an at bat in the sixth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Brian Bradshaw Sevald-Imagn Images | Brian Bradshaw Sevald-Imagn Images

Last year, the player I was the most optimistic about bouncing back from a tough season was Maikel Garcia. I didn’t foresee him taking a huge step forward, but you could see heading in 2025 that there were still lots of positives in his batted-ball profile despite the poor results. Garcia worked hard on his swing and made the changes necessary to unlock the potential that was present. Still, it was nice to see the ingredients that some of us thought were there could lead to a more productive season from Garcia than we had seen so far.

I don’t think there is as obvious a candidate for a bounce back in 2026 as there was last year with Garcia, but that’s a pretty lame article to write. Instead, I’m going to test my luck and argue that Jonathan India will be the Maikel Garcia of this year, at least when it comes to hitting well at the plate.

India needs to regain his form at the plate even more than Garcia did last year. Garcia finished with 1.2 fWAR in 2024 despite hitting 31% below league average, thanks to his above-average defense and excellent baserunning. Garcia turned in an excellent defensive and above-average base running campaign in 2025, which combined with his big step forward at the plate led to 5.6 fWAR and his first All-Star selection. India, meanwhile, was below replacement level in the field and running the bases. The second baseman hit just 11% below league average last year, but overall contributed a -0.3 fWAR.

Ideally, India’s defense will improve this season as he focuses solely on second base rather than bouncing between second, third, and left field, but he’s unlikely to become a defensive whiz at his age. So he really needs to produce at an above-average level to justify the Royals tendering him a contract this year. I’m not a Michael Massey believer, but there’s no arguing that Massey would be a better option in the dirt than India. The 29-year-old will also be a free agent at the end of the 2026 season, so there’s even more pressure for him to take a big leap forward with his bat.

There are other soft factors besides India being in a contract year that lead me to betting on India improving his performance. As previously mentioned, the Royals unsuccessfully tried to make India an outfielder last year, which could have had him focusing more on improving in left field instead of fixing his swing. He switched teams and cities, which is plenty to get adjusted to as a person. He went from a bandbox in Great American Ballpark to the spacious confines of Kauffman Stadium, which might have gotten into his head as a hitter. India took a 99-mile-per-hour fastball off the helmet at the start of the year last season. Thankfully, the pitch was non-concussive, but I wouldn’t blame India if he was just a touch slower in his reaction time while hitting after that moment.

The two biggest factors for why I like India to bounce back, however, are more analytical and similar to why Garcia seemed like a good candidate to rebound last year. First, he has an excellent eye and makes good contact, which are great and generally repeatable skills to have as a hitter. Second, India had a pretty obvious but seemingly fixable weakness as a hitter last season, which I, as a jabroni, was able to notice when looking through his Statcast data. If I’m able to see what he needs to improve, then the Royals and India are certainly able to see that as well and hopefully have him make the necessary changes to his swing to improve this year.

I wrote an article last May about India’s approach at the plate, and how refreshing it was to see as a Royals fan despite his overall struggles. That approach never left him, even though he didn’t hit well in 2025. India finished second on the team in walks (behind Maikel Garcia,) and his chase rate remained elite in 2025. The second baseman finished in the 97th percentile in chase rate, the best figure on the team.

India also makes excellent contact when he swings the bat. He had an above-average contact percentage, whether he swung at pitches inside the strike zone or outside the strike zone. His 82.5% contact percentage was well above the league-average mark of 76.9%, and placed him in the 78th percentile among all qualified hitters. India was less than one percentage point behind Vinnie Pasquantino in overall contact percentage, which surprised me when I looked through the data. Garcia was ahead of them both and in truly elite company when it comes to making contact, but India’s ability to make contact was still very good. Combine that with an elite batting eye, and you’ve got some quality ingredients to have a good hitter.

So what went wrong last year? In my view, India’s issue was the opposite of Garcia’s in 2024. Garcia hit too many groundballs that year, and needed to raise his launch angle to unlock his potential, which ended up happening. India’s launch angle in 2025, particularly on pitches at the top of the zone, was actually too high. His average launch angle of 17.1 degrees was the highest of his career and was a power hitter’s launch angle. Vinnie Paquantino had a 16.3 degree average launch angle in 2025, while Maikel Garcia had a 9.7 degree average launch angle.

The high launch angle contributed to India hitting too many flyballs and not enough line drives, which brought his BABIP to a career-low .279. India needs to stay on top of pitches at the top of the zone better in 2026; if he can make that change, he should post better hitting numbers this season.

Let’s look at some data from Baseball Savant, which shows us India’s launch angle in 2025 in certain parts of the strike zone:

As a reminder, 10-25 degrees is an ideal launch angle for line drives, while 25-35 degrees is a good launch angle for home run hitters. India had a great line drive swing in the middle third of the plate, but his approach in the upper-middle and upper-inside part of the plate led to a lot of flyballs. That might work as an approach if India had more power, but he’s an on-base guy and needs to focus more on hitting line drives. For India, a launch angle average of 30 and 33 degrees, respectively, is too high, and we would expect the results to be too many easy flyballs. That was the result for India last season, which comes into pretty clear focus when you break down results by their location in the strike zone.

The second baseman hit a fair number of flyballs in the middle of the zone, but still managed to hit enough line drives to get quality results. In the upper part of the zone, however, he was below average on line drive percentage, which is not surprising given his launch angle.

The results of too many flyballs and not enough line drives at the top of the zone were not good for India, which the Baseball Savant charts help make obvious.

India hit way too many pop-ups when he was challenged at the upper part of the strike zone. Popouts are almost always outs, which led to India’s terrible BABIP, batting average and expected batting average in the top third of the zone.

This pop-up issue has not always been a problem for India. His 2024 launch angle up in the zone was more line drive oriented:

Which led to more line drives, which we can see below:

Unsurprisingly, more line drives led to less pop outs, which led to better results as a hitter for India.

I’m not qualified to diagnose what was different about India’s swing this season and what needs to change, but the fact that he’s hit a lot of line drives at the top of the strike zone before tells us that he should be able to do it again. I’m trusting that the Royals’ hitting coaches, along with the second baseman himself, can figure out what he needs to do to flatten his swing out at the top of the strike zone. This should lead to him getting on base more often, which is exactly what the Royals offense needs from him.

India is at a crossroads. If he gets off to a slow start, the calls to replace him with Massey or someone else are going to come quickly and loudly. I’m willing to bet that the Royals and India are able to see what went wrong last season and get things fixed. If the second baseman is not popping out as much this year, the rest of his hitting profile makes him a great candidate to have a much better 2026 season than 2025.

Colorado Rockies prospects: No. 20, Ashly Andujar

20. Ashly Andujar (197 points, 18 ballots)

Andujar was the headliner of Colorado’s international free agent class in January 2024, earning a $1.7 million bonus as the 18th ranked international prospect at MLB.com as a well-rounded offensive and defensive player with good bat to ball skills who was likely to stay as an up the middle defender.

Mid-season 2025 Rank: 19

High Ballot: 13

Mode Ballot: 15, 17, 20

Future Value: 40, middle infield depth

Contract Status: 2024 International Free Agent, Dominican Republic, Rule 5 Draft Eligible After 2028, three options remaining

MLB ETA: 2029

The 18-year-old 6’1” switch-hitting shortstop spent his first professional season in the Dominican Summer League as expected (since he was one of the youngest players in his signing class), where he was 1.8 years younger than league average. In 229 plate appearances, Andujar fit right in with a .292/.376/.352 line that included ten extra-base hits and 17 steals in 25 attempts, good for a 105 wRC+. On defense, Andujar committed 14 errors in 45 games at shortstop.

The Rockies liked what they saw enough to bring Andujar stateside to the Arizona Complex League in 2025, where he was 2.6 years younger than average, and he looked like a natural on a strong ACL Rockies team. In 217 plate appearances, Andujar again had good contact numbers without much power, hitting .319/.370/.356 with seven doubles and seven steals (which is a 97 wRC+). Andujar walked in 7% of his plate appearances and struck out in 14% of them. Andujar was the primary shortstop for the ACL team, committing 11 errors in 53 games at the position.

Andujar didn’t turn 18 until after the season and indeed didn’t face a pitcher who was younger than him all year. That’s one of the reasons Andujar’s offensive performance, despite a lack of thump, was a very impressive showing in his stateside debut. The trajectory of Andujar’s season was encouraging as well: he went from a .610 OPS in May to .716 in June and .860 in July.

Here is a recent slo-mo look at Andujar’s left-handed swing:

Here is some video of Andujar before he signed with the Rockies, including some looks at him at shortstop and his swing from both sides of the plate:

Eric Longenhagen at FanGraphs grades Andujar as a 40+ FV prospect, 15th in the system, with a plus run grade and a 55 future hit and field tool evaluation:

Amateur Andujar was billed as a speedy, contact-oriented infielder who should be a long-term shortstop fit, and that remains true. He only K’d 13.5% of the time last year and slashed .291/.376/.352. He is still very skinny and frail looking, but at just 17, that’s fine. The foundation of a good baseball player is here, now Andujar needs to layer on strength. It might take a few years yet, but once he does that, he should break out.

MLB Pipeline ranks Andujar 28th in the system as a 40 FV player, giving him a 55 on his arm and fielding ability:

One of the youngest players in the class who didn’t turn 17 until late July, Andujar certainly has time to figure things out. He starts out with a pretty good feel for hitting from both sides of the plate. He can find the barrel routinely and makes a ton of contact. He struck out just 13.5 percent of the time, isn’t afraid to hit behind in the count and even drew some walks. He needs to add strength so he can impact the ball more, even if power isn’t ever a big part of his game after slugging .352 in his debut.

More strength should also augment Andujar’s speed. He likes to run despite having just average speed at present and he moves well defensively at shortstop. He has good hands and an arm that could develop into a plus for him at the premium position. His ability to slow the game down gives him an even better overall defensive package and something he can lean on to help his team win if his bat is slow to develop.

Keith Law of the Athletic wrote this about Andujar last February:

Shortstop Ashly Andujar signed for a $1.7 million bonus last January for his potential as a switch-hitter with plus defense at a tough position. He hit .291/.376/.352 in the DSL with just a 14 percent strikeout rate, with solid swings that generate line drives and should eventually lead to doubles power. He could move quickly to Low A if this plate discipline is real.

As an up-the-middle player who was a seven-figure international signee, Andujar is joining a recent tradition of PuRPs, including Adael Amador and Robert Calaz. Also fitting that category is former PuRP Dyan Jorge, whose all-around game except a lack of power is reminiscent of Andujar’s batting lines so far. Then again, Jorge didn’t even sign until he was 19 and didn’t make it to the ACL until he was 20, so Andujar has more runway ahead of him.

Andujar should be one of the youngest players in Low-A in 2026 and we’ll see if another offseason in the strength and conditioning program bears fruit for his power. He’s a long ways away, but his athleticism provides a good foundation for him as a potential regular, so long as he doesn’t end up a Punch-and-Judy hitter. The potential and performance so far were enough for me to rank Andujar 20th on my list in the 40 FV tier.


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Bucks vs. Wizards Player Grades: Turner’s blockfest sullied by Anthony’s horror shooting

WASHINGTON, DC -  JANUARY 29: Myles Turner #3 of the Milwaukee Bucks looks to pass the ball as Jamir Watkins #5 of the Washington Wizards plays defense during the game on January 29, 2026 at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Stephen Gosling/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images

The Milwaukee Bucks got destroyed at the charity stripe against the Washington Wizards (28-9), a key reason for their 109-99 defeat (despite shooting it more frequently and at a better clip). It was really just more of the same from the Bucks; they are one of the league’s worst teams without Giannis. That said, I thought last night was a step down from how they played against the 76ers. Kyshawn George, who recently shared that he thought the Bucks were going to draft him, went off against Milwaukee. Read our full summary of the game here and catch a six-minute audio recap on the Bucks+ podcast, Bucks In Six Minutes, below.

Player Grades

Ryan Rollins

26 minutes, 17 points, 8 assists, 3 rebounds, 4 steals, 1 turnover, 7/13 FG, 3/5 3P, -3

Ryan was great… when he was on the court. The problem was that he was too aggressive on defence early on and had to sit much of the first half with foul trouble; he has to be better than that and know his importance. That said, his game when he did play was excellent. I mean, Ryan made a number of clutch plays on both ends.

Grade: B+

Myles Turner

39 minutes, 21 points, 14 rebounds, 6 blocks, 2 turnovers, 8/16 FG, 2/6 3P, +2

Granted, some of Turner’s minutes were played with no opposing centre on the floor—the Wizards’ backup centres Marvin Bagley and Tristan Vukcevic were out—but for him to have six blocks was awesome to see; it shows he’s engaged and has the right mindset. I also loved his rebounding (again, easier in this one than usual, but you still have to grab ‘em).

Grade: A-

AJ Green

37 minutes, 2 points, 3 assists, 1/6 FG, 0/4 3P, -10

Yeah, I barely remember AJ doing anything positive in this game (other than a nice read off the pick-and-roll in the first quarter). The reality for him as a shooter is that he needs to make shots. He’d been doing that, but not last night. Green’s defence—and specifically his ability to slide his feet—was less effective because there weren’t many good matchups for him.

Grade: D+

Kyle Kuzma

34 minutes, 19 points, 6 assists, 9 rebounds, 3 turnovers, 8/18 FG, 0/3 3P, –8

While Kuz did have some nice plays towards the end of the game—both from a passing and scoring standpoint, especially in transition—there were just too many instances throughout the game where he was out of control. Missing 10 shots and turning the ball over three times just isn’t good enough.

Grade: C-

Bobby Portis

36 minutes, 19 points, 3 assists, 7 rebounds, 8/17 FG, 2/5 3P, -21

Man, this was such a weird Bobby game. At points, he was the Bucks’ only source of offence and was actually quite effective with his backdowns. He even had an absolute dime to Pete Nance under the hoop at one point. But the fact that Portis had, by far, the worst plus/minus on the team likely indicates that he did a lot wrong on defence. I mean, the next closest was -10.

Grade: C

Pete Nance

20 minutes, 13 points, 6 rebounds, 6/10 FG, 1/3 3P, -1

Just another great game from Nance, who actually got a shot last night over Jericho Sims. He put himself in the right spots to be a receiver and a converter once his teammates made the initial play—something he has a knack for.

Grade: A

Gary Trent Jr.

24 minutes, 3 points, 1/6 FG, 1/5 3P, -1

I mean, GT took the right shots, but he has truly fallen off the map this year. Wow.

Grade: D

Cole Anthony

17 minutes, 5 points, 1 assist, 2 turnovers, 2/11 FG, 1/6 3P, –9

Cole Anthony. Just the Ultimate tank commander. My guy was throwing up BRICKS.

Grade: F

Doc Rivers

Hmmmm. The everlasting quandary of weighing Doc’s coaching acumen against the crappy talent level of his team. On one hand, I can’t expect Doc to make chicken salad out of chickenb sh*t, respectfully. On the other hand, let’s not act like he’s some technician who makes all the right calls. He played Nance, not Sims. That’s something. He gave AJax some minutes… didn’t do much. I thought BP was appropriately used on offence against a bunch of smaller wings. Rivers can’t control Rollins getting in foul trouble. But at the end of the day, the team should have been more competitive in the first three quarters against a side that, not so subtly, was playing its deep reserves for a suspiciously long time, I thought. Take what you will from that.

Grade: C-

Limited minutes: Andre Jackson Jr.

DNP-CD: Amir Coffey, Thanasis Antetokounmpo, Pete nance

Inactive: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Alex Antetokounmpo, Kevin Porter Jr., Taurean Prince

Bonus Bucks Bits

  • The Bucks had at least three flagrant fouls where they got into the shooter’s landing space. Might have been four. That’s just clumsy. One of those came on Wizards rookie Tre Johnson, who left the game and did not return. Postgame, Doc was not happy with the amount the Bucks fouled shooters.
  • Myles had a late block that would have been his seventh of the night. It was clean up top, but there was some incidental lower-body contact, and they called it a foul. The Bucks challenged and lost. Here’s what Doc had to say about that play: “If you start calling the lower body after you block a shot, everybody’s going to be shooting a free throw. To make a call like that at the end of a game, to decide a game, is just absolutely awful.”
  • I wanted to know why in the world this game was nationally televised (I’m sure casual fans were watching this cellar-dweller matchup with high interest). Then I started putting two and two together that it was a night to celebrate John Wall.
  • Interesting that, even when they are ostensibly tanking, the Wizards still aren’t giving a load of minutes to AJ Johnson. He had a DNP last night.
  • Khris was solid, but it feels like they’re limiting his minutes. Maybe that’s good for both parties at this point.

Up Next

The Bucks have a few days off now before they play in Boston on Sunday afternoon. Catch the game on ESPN and FanDuel Sports Network Wisconsin at 2:30 p.m. CST.

It’s official: Anthony Rizzo is joining NBC’s baseball coverage team

A couple of weeks ago, I posted this article noting that former Cub Anthony Rizzo was being considered by NBC as an analyst as the network returns to national baseball broadcasts in 2026.

Now, per Michael McCarthy of Front Office Sports, Rizzo is, in fact, going to join the network:

The outgoing Rizzo has been the most aggressive about seeking a post-baseball media career. The 36-year-old former Yankee star was a hit with the media in the tough New York market. 

“Rizz played the New York media better than anybody—and that’s not easy,” one source previously told FOS. “He always had a smile on his face.”

As we know from Rizzo’s decade with the Cubs, he always had a smile on his face while here and became the face of the franchise as they won the 2016 World Series. If you were at the Cubs Convention this month (and managed to get into the sessions) or watched the Convention via Marquee Sports Network, you know that Rizzo was funny, glib and engaging while talking about that World Series year and other happenings while he was a Cub.

It’s not clear exactly what role Rizzo will have with NBC, though this article indicates that he could be part of a trio along with former Dodger Clayton Kershaw and former Reds star Joey Votto, both of whom were also hired by NBC. Kershaw, per the Front Office Sports article, is expected to work a “limited schedule.” As for Votto:

As one sports TV producer previously told FOS about Votto, who spent 17 years with the Reds: “Joey Votto is, in my opinion, a no-brainer. He’s an MVP. He has a national name. He’s a natural in front of the camera.” Added another media source: “If NBC wants to make a splash with Sunday Night Baseball, Joey would be perfect.”

Having Rizzo, Kershaw and Votto as part of Sunday Night Baseball’s pre-game show would be must-see TV for any baseball fan. Or, any or all of them could wind up as a game analyst at times.

So far, NBC has done all the right things in returning to national baseball broadcasting for the first time in more than 25 years. There have been rumors that the network is trying to engage Jason Benetti as their lead broadcaster for Sunday Night Baseball, which would also be an outstanding choice.

You’ll also likely see Rizzo around Wrigley Field fairly often in his role as a Cubs ambassador, and the team does have plans to have a 10th anniversary celebration of the 2016 World Series team at some point this year, though a date has not been announced.

The Cubs are scheduled to appear three times on SNB: May 31 vs. the Cardinals at St. Louis, June 7 vs. the Giants at Wrigley Field and Aug. 30 vs. the Reds at Wrigley Field. The Cubs vs. Cardinals game at Wrigley Field Sunday, July 5 will be carried by Peacock as part of NBC’s “Star-Spangled Sunday.”

Cedric Mullins’ Mets tenure was an unmitigated disaster

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - AUGUST 16: Cedric Mullins #28 of the New York Mets in action against the Seattle Mariners during their game at Citi Field on August 16, 2025 in New York City. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images) | Getty Images

It is never fair to blame a team’s collapse on a single player, let alone one as otherwise likeable as Cedric Mullins, who ultimately was a pretty small cog in the grand scheme of the spectacular failure that was the 2025 season. But if there is a player who came to symbolize—justly or not—that failure, it’s Mullins. After Jose Siri spent most of the season sidelined by injury and Tyrone Taylor underperformed, the Mets were desperate to upgrade at the center field position at the deadline and landed on Mullins as the solution, dealing three minor league arms to Baltimore in exchange for his services.

As a Mets fan who lived in Baltimore for much of the 2010s and saw the passing of the torch from Adam Jones to Cedric Mullins firsthand, I admit that I was probably higher on the trade at the time than most. I knew the dynamic and fun player Mullins was capable of being when he was on. But that is not the version of Cedric Mullins that Mets fans were exposed to and it is hard to classify the trade any other way except as an unambiguous failure.

A lifelong Oriole until that point, Mullins had to leave the organization where he had spent a decade of his life and come to a team in the midst of a playoff run in one of the biggest markets in the country. Mullins recently admitted on “Foul Territory” that it was a difficult adjustment for him. “It hit pretty hard, having to uplift your entire life,” he said. “Especially out in New York, where things can get hectic on a day-to-day basis. It was definitely a lot of changes and adjustments that had to be made, along with trying to perform at your best.” He also spoke about the challenge of trying to complement an already talented roster and putting pressure on himself to perform.

Of course, it is impossible to know how much these mental challenges contributed to his subpar output on the field. Understanding the context of his struggles can make one sympathetic to the player, but unfortunately it does not change the reality of the numbers. I don’t need to repeat them here to anyone who watched the 2025 Mets in the second half, but I will for the sake of completeness. In 143 plate appearances for the Mets, Mullins hit .182/.284/.281 with a 66 wRC+. He logged just seven extra-base hits, scored 16 runs, drove in 10 runs, and stole eight bases (while not getting caught once; that is one thing that was promised on which he delivered). But even seeing these disastrous offensive numbers doesn’t tell the full story. A normally at least capable center fielder, Mullins also made several costly mistakes on the field that were magnified by being on a team struggling with run prevention where every run mattered.

Mullins’ hardships were so profound, in fact, that by September he was more or less relegated to the bench in favor of a resurgent Tyrone Taylor, who had a strong August and September. We all remember what happened after that. The Mets fell just short of the playoffs and Mullins absorbed an outsized amount of ire for it from the fanbase. Now, Mullins and the Mets go their separate ways—hopefully to the benefit of both. The Mets now turn to Luis Robert Jr.—another player who had spent his entire career with another organization until this point who the Mets had their eye on at the deadline last season—to try to solve their center field problem. If healthy, Robert probably has a better chance to recapture his past performance than Mullins ever did; he is younger, he has better tools, and underlying indicators of his athleticism remain present. As for Mullins, he returns to the familiar AL East with the Tampa Bay Rays on a one-year, $8 million deal. His role will not be in question and the pressure he experienced in New York will certainly be alleviated to some extent. Unfortunately, Cedric Mullins’ New York Mets tenure becomes a footnote that both the player and the team would likely rather forget.

Mariners News: Kai-Wei Teng, Craig Kimbrel, and Joey Votto

Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto (19) laughs near the cage during batting practice before the MLB National League game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Chicago Cubs at Great American Ball Park in downtown Cincinnati, on Friday, April 21, 2017.

Hello one and all, and happy Friday! It’s time to dig into the latest baseball news.

In Mariners news…

Around the league…

Friday morning Rangers things

Aug 6, 2024; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore (1) looks out form the dugout against the San Francisco Giants during the fifth inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Rafael Suanes-Imagn Images

Good morning, LSB.

The Rangers formally introduced new pitcher MacKenzie Gore yesterday.

Kennedi Landry says the Rangers hope Gore can “level up” in Arlington.

Evan Grant asks if adding another pitcher to this offense starved roster will be enough to compete in 2026.

Kevin Sherrington says the Gore deal was too logical to pass up for the Rangers.

Jeff Wilson ponders where the Rangers rotation ranks with the new addition.

In other news the Rangers announced 10 NRIs they’ll be taking to Arizona.

And Chris Young discusses when he envisions Sebastian Walcott cracking the major league roster.

That’s all for this morning. Happy Friday!

Pitch Points: Which Arsenal narrative will prevail, and how has Carrick reset Man United?

The world of soccer throws up no shortage of questions. In today’s column, we endeavor to answer three of them

One narrative has been set: Arsenal are bottling it. Last weekend’s home loss to Manchester United confirmed what the Gunners’ biggest doubters always suspected: that Mikel Arteta and his players don’t have it in them to win the Premier League title. Arsenal’s haters already started their victory lap.

Continue reading...

Updating the Milwaukee Brewers’ payroll projection for 2026

Jul 28, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; A detailed view of a Milwaukee Brewers hat and glove on the bench against the Atlanta Braves in the second inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images

At the start of the offseason, we looked at the initial payroll projection for 2026. While not much has changed to the roster since then, there have been some adjustments. As the end of January approaches, and pitchers and catchers are set to report in just 13 days, the starting payroll is getting closer to a set amount. Let’s take a look at what has changed since then. (If you want to review the original projection from the end of October, you can find that post here.)

Here are some reminders for the projection.

  • The majority of these numbers are from Spotrac, which has estimated payroll numbers for all MLB teams.
  • Per the CBA, the minimum salary for players in 2026 is $780,000. Any pre-arbitration player has this salary listed by default. These salaries can be slightly different for each player, but not by a significant amount.
  • This is not a roster projection for 2026. Some players on this list are currently in the organization but may be planned for a minor league role. This is just in place to show what a minimum commitment would be. Minimum salaries can be swapped out for any other minimum salary player that would be in the minors.
  • While I do not think the Brewers will break camp with 14 position players and 12 pitchers, that is how it is set up below due to current commitments. That will change before the season.
  • In the initial payroll for 2026, I included the declined options after the 2025 season. Spotrac has moved those numbers to the 2025 season, so I have also adjusted for that to keep the numbers consistent.
  • The final projected payroll for 2025 was $156,266,827, per Spotrac. That was 18th in MLB.

First, here are the projections for the initial roster.

Position PlayersBench Players
C – William Contreras$9,900,000*C – Jeferson Quero$780,000
1B – Andrew Vaughn$7,650,0001B – Jake Bauers$2,700,000
2B – Brice Turang$4,150,000UT – Andruw Monasterio$780,000
3B – Caleb Durbin$780,000OF – Garrett Mitchell$950,000
SS – Joey Ortiz$780,000OF – Akil Baddoo$1,250,000
LF – Jackson Chourio$7,000,000
CF – Blake Perkins$780,000
RF – Sal Frelick$780,000
DH – Christian Yelich$26,000,000
Total$57,820,000Total$6,460,000
Starting PitchersRelief Pitchers
Brandon Woodruff$22,025,000Aaron Ashby$5,700,000
Quinn Priester$780,000Trevor Megill$4,700,000
Jacob Misiorowski$780,000Angel Zerpa$1,095,000
Chad Patrick$780,000Abner Uribe$780,000
Logan Henderson$780,000Jared Koenig$780,000
Grant Anderson$780,000
DL Hall$780,000
Total$25,145,000Total$14,615,000
SummaryAmount
Position Players$57,820,000
Bench Players$6,460,000
Starting Pitchers$25,145,000
Relief Pitchers$14,615,000
Initial Total for 2026$104,040,000

Here’s a summary of what has changed since the original payroll:

  • Brandon Woodruff accepted his qualifying offer. That added his $22.025 million salary into the payroll. Even though Woodruff accepted the offer, he will also receive the buyout for his option being declined (that is factored into 2025 payroll).
  • William Contreras is the one player who still has a pending arbitration decision. Currently, he is estimated at $9.9 million, which is what he filed for. The Brewers filed for an $8.55 million salary. A deal could still happen before the hearing, but the salary will be somewhere between those two numbers.
  • Every other player that is in an arbitration year agreed to their salary. The contract amounts have been added above.
  • The following players have been removed: Freddy Peralta, Isaac Collins, Nick Mears
  • The following players have been added: Brandon Woodruff, Ángel Zerpa, Akil Baddoo

The total above is just the initial total based on the projected active roster. However, there’s still more money to factor in to the payroll. If you compare it to the active roster at the end of the season, the Brewers only had just over $84 million of their $156 million total on the active roster. Here’s where the rest of the payroll came from. (Some rounding is used in the table, so actual amounts will be slightly different.)

SourceAmount
Injured List (End of Season)$15,800,000
Traded/Released Players (Not on roster at end of season)$15,200,000
Declined Options$16,600,000
Deferred Salaries$2,800,000
Player Benefits$18,000,000
Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool$1,666,666
Minor-League Contracts$2,700,000
Total$72,766,666

Some of those numbers will be in the 2026 payroll as well. Specifically, the last four numbers will be very similar to 2025. The first three will be different in 2026. For the moment, there will not be any options to consider after the 2026 season, so that number can be ignored.

As for the other two numbers, it’s difficult to include a solid projection. Those numbers can easily be inflated by circumstances during the season. For example, if we looked at the injured list at the end of 2024, that was highly inflated due to Yelich finishing the season on it. If we go back to 2022, the traded/release player number was significantly higher because Lorenzo Cain’s final year salary was included. That would also result in the active payroll having a lower figure due to the changes in players, but those numbers end up in the IL or traded/released categories instead.

There’s one other factor that Spotrac considers in their payroll estimate. Even though the initial projection factors in 26 players, Spotrac adds in the payroll for 12 additional pre-arbitration players. Considering the Brewers were paying for seven IL players and eight players not on the team anymore (not counting two who were paid under $10,000), adding in 12 more players is a reasonable estimate. Those 12 players would make $9.36 million total. (Spotrac uses a slightly higher $820,000 estimate for pre-arbitration players, but the CBA minimum is at $780,000.)

What we can expect for 2026 is similar to the 2025 payroll. In terms of cash payroll, the total will at most be around that $156 million mark. The Brewers have been in the $140-$156 million range in recent years and that likely will not change. With that in mind, here’s a comprehensive look at the estimated payroll for 2026.

SourceAmount
Initial Projected Roster$104,040,000
Additional Roster Players$9,360,000
Deferred Salaries$2,800,000
Player Benefits$18,000,000
Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool$1,666,666
Minor-League Contracts$2,700,000
Initial Payroll Projection$138,566,666

That leaves $17.4 million in potential additional payroll space. That extra space would be needed for the team to make in-season moves. It gives them the ability to take on money in contracts for players acquired by trade. It would also factor in contracts for players who make the team that are on minor league contracts (such as the recently signed Reese McGuire). It also gives them the opportunity to bring in a low-cost contract in spring training if the team has a sudden need.

With the overall quiet offseason for the Brewers, the payroll appears to be heading to a similar point in 2026. Any space remaining will be needed for in-season flexibility. There is potential for a smaller signing, since the team gained $7 million in space after trading Peralta. However, the team may be content to just save that money for now. If that’s the case, what we’re looking at will be close to the current spending plan for next season.

2026 South Side Sox Prospect Vote: Round 34

For the second straight and now the fifth time, a player has topped the ballot in his first try (and technically, No. 1 overall voted prospect Braden Montgomery sorta doesn’t count). But this round, Phil Fox has joined Mathias LaCombe, Ky Bush and Zach Franklin as first-timers and Vote winners all in one sweep. Fox earned 12 of 50 (24%) votes:

Also like Franklin’s before him, this is Fox’s first time on our ballot.

Past No. 33s in the SSS Top Prospect Vote
2025 Voting lasted only 31 rounds
2024 Tanner McDougal (25%)
2023 Voting lasted only 24 rounds
2022 Voting lasted only 17 rounds
2021 Seby Zavala (28%)
2020 Matt Foster (55%)
2019 Lenyn Sosa (38%)
2018 Evan Skoug (35%)

Franklin became just the third righty and fourth relief pitcher (and third still with the club, with Peyton Pallette’s loss to Cleveland) to advance:

For this round, shortstop Ryan Burrowes joins the fun.


South Side Sox Top-Voted White Sox Prospects for 2026

  1. Braden Mongomery — 59% (Smith 17%, Bonemer 9%, Schultz 7%, Antonacci 3%, Adams/Carlson/McDougal 2%, Fauske/Oppor 0%)
  2. Hagen Smith — 40% (Bonemer 28%, Schultz 18%, McDougal 5%, Antonacci 4%, Carlson 3%, Bergolla/Oppor 1%, Adams/Fauske 0%)
  3. Caleb Bonemer — 47% (Schultz 34%, Antonacci 10%, Carlson/McDougal 4%, Bergolla 2%, Adams/Fauske/Oppor/Perez 0%)
  4. Noah Schultz — 49% (Antonacci 25%, Carlson 11%, McDougal 7%, Adams/Bergolla/Oppor 2%, Perez 1%, Fauske/Lodise 0%)
  5. Sam Antonacci — 41% (Carlson 25%, McDougal 20%, Bergolla/Perez 4%, Oppor 3%, Adams 2%, Fauske 1%, Diaz/Lodise 0%)
  6. Tanner McDougal — 39% (Carlson 36%, Bergolla 7%, Adams 6%, Pallette 5%, Fauske 3%, Oppor 2%, Lodise 1%, Diaz/Perez 0%)
  7. Billy Carlson — 52% (Adams 18%, Oppor 12%, Bergolla 9%, Fauske 5%, Lodise/Pallette/Wolkow 2%, Diaz/Perez 0%)
  8. Christian Oppor — 24% (Murphy 20%, Adams/Fauske 16%, Wolkow 10%, Bergolla 9%, Lodise/Pallette/Perez 1%, Diaz 0%)
  9. Shane Murphy — 34% (Adams 20%, Wolkow 13%, Fauske 16%, Bergolla 9%, Palisch 4%, Lodise/Pallette/Perez 1%, Diaz 0%)
  10. Mason Adams — 43% (Wolkow 22%, Bergolla 11%, Fauske/Pallette 10%, Lodise/Palisch/Perez 2%, Diaz/Hodge 0%)
  11. Jaden Fauske — 24.0% (Perez 23.5%, Hodge 13.4%, Bergolla 12.9%, Wolkow 8%, Pallette 5%, Diaz/Gonzalez/Lodise/Palisch 3%)
  12. Jeral Perez — 20% (Umberger 15%, Wolkow 13%, Hodge 12.3%, Palisch 11.9%, Bergolla 11.4%, Lodise 7.3%, Pallette 6.9%, Diaz 2%, Gonzalez 1%)
  13. Grant Umberger — 28% (Palisch 19%, Wolkow 13%, Bergolla 12%, Hodge 11%, Lodise 10%, Pallette 4%, Diaz 3%, Gonzalez/Larson 1%)
  14. Mathias LaCombe — 41% (Bergolla 19%, Wolkow 17%, Pallette 7%, Palisch 6%, Gonzalez 4%, Hodge/Lodise 2%, Diaz/Larson 1%)
  15. William Bergolla — 35% (Wolkow 20%, Pallette/Palisch 13%, Larson 6%, Diaz/Gordon/Lodise 4%, Hodge 2%, Gonzalez 0%)
  16. George Wolkow — 38% (Pallette 22%, Palisch 12%, Gordon 8%, Lodise 6%, Gonzalez 5%, Batista/Diaz/Larson 3%, Hodge 0%)
  17. Peyton Pallette — 38% (Palisch 13%, Lodise 11%, Gordon/Larson 10%, Gonzalez 8%, Batista 5%, Diaz 3%, Hodge/Mogollón 2%)
  18. Blake Larson — 21% (Lodise 18%, J. Gonzalez/Palisch 15%, C. Gonzalez 11%, Gordon 10%, Batista 5%, Mogollón 3%, Hodge 2%, Diaz 0%)
  19. Ky Bush — 24% (Palisch 19%, C. Gonzalez/Lodise 16%, J. Gonzalez 8%, Gordon/Batista 6%, Mogollón 3%, Diaz 2%, Hodge 0%)
  20. Jake Palisch — 26% (Paez 21%, Lodise 19%, J. Gonzalez 13%, C. Gonzalez/Gordon 8%, Batista/Hodge/Mogollón 2%, Diaz 0%)
  21. Jedixson Paez — 45% (Nishida 20%, Gordon 14%, C. Gonzalez/Lodise 8%, J. Gonzalez 4%, Mogollón 2%, Batista/Diaz/Hodge 0%)
  22. Christian Gonzalez — 22% (Nishida 18%, Gordon 17%, J. Gonzalez 15%, Lodise 10%, Hodge 8%, Batista 5%, Mogollón 3%, Diaz 2%, Ziehl 0%)
  23. Rikuu Nishida — 30% (Gordon 18%, J. Gonzalez 15%, Gowens 10%, Lodise 8%, Batista 7%, Hodge/Mogollón/Ziehl 3%, Diaz 2%)
  24. Kyle Lodise — 23% (J. Gonzalez/Gowens 18%, Gordon 14%, Batista/Carela 7%, Diaz/Hodge/Mogollón/Ziehl 4%)
  25. Jacob Gonzalez— 26% (Gowens 21%, Gordon 20%, Schweitzer 11%, Batista 6%, Mogollón/Ziehl 5%, Hodge 3%, Carela/Diaz 2%)
  26. Riley Gowens — 29% (Zavala 21%, Carela 13%, Gordon 11%, Batista 7%, 11%, Ziehl 5%, Diaz/Hodge/Mogollón/Schweitzer 4%)
  27. Samuel Zavala — 33% (Carela/Gordon 15%, Alcala 10%, Ziehl 8%, Batista/Schweitzer 5%, Diaz/Hodge/Mogollón 3%)
  28. Lucas Gordon — 36% (Carela 19%, Alcala/Batista/Schweitzer 9%, Mogollón/Ziehl 5%, Diaz/Hodge 3%, Albertus 2%)
  29. Juan Carela — 28% (Diaz/Hodge 13%, Batista 11%, Alcala 9%, Iriarte/Schweitzer 7%, Albertus/Mogollón/Ziehl 4%)
  30. Landon Hodge — 19% (Batista 15%, Iriarte 13%, Alcala/Diaz/Ziehl 10%, Albertus/Schweitzer 8%, Mogollón 6%, Rodriguez 2%)
  31. Gage Ziehl — 19% (Albertus 17%, Alcala/Galanie 12%, Iriarte 9%, Batista/Diaz/Rodriguez/Schweitzer 7%, Mogollón 3%)
  32. Zach Franklin — 38% (Alcala 15%, Batista 13%, Albertus/Diaz/Schweitzer 8%, Galanie/Iriarte/Mogollón/Rodriguez 3%)
  33. Phil Fox — 24% (Alcala 16%, Batista/Galanie 12%, Iriarte/Schweitzer 10%, Albertus/Diaz 6%, Mogollón/Rodriguez 2%)

Alexander Albertus
Third Baseman
Age 21
2025 high level Arizona Complex League (Rookie)
Age relative to high level +0.4 years
Overall 2025 stats 8 games ▪️ 0 HR ▪️ 2 RBI ▪️ .333/.520/.444 ▪️ 3-of-3 (100.0%) SB ▪️ 6 BB ▪️ 3 K ▪️ 1.000 FLD%▪️ 0.3 WAR

What can you say further about Albertus? He seems to have great tools but an uncanny ability to stay off of the field (just eight games in a season-plus in the White Sox system). In 2025, he was assigned to Kannapolis but was … wait for it … injured. He lasted just eight games of ACL rehab before hitting the IL-60 again.


Marcelo Alcala
Center Fielder
Age 20
2025 high level ACL (Rookie)
Age relative to high level -0.6 years
Overall 2025 stats 42 games ▪️ 7 HR ▪️ 19 RBI ▪️ .233/.325/.479 ▪️ 14-of-15 (93.3%) SB ▪️ 14 BB ▪️ 63 K ▪️ .935 FLD%▪️ 1.2 WAR

Alcala is a talent to dream on. Though still raw, he flashed power that we simply do not see in the White Sox system, especially when combined with the raw speed that can swipe bases at a 90%+ rate. Defense and bat discipline are issues to be sure, but imagine what additional outfield reps, AZ batting cage time, and even some training on the bases could do.


Aldrin Batista
Right-Handed Starting Pitcher
Age 22
2025 SSS Prospect Vote ranking 6
2025 high level Winston-Salem (High-A)
Age relative to high level -1.2 years
Overall 2025 stats 2-0 ▪️ 7 games (2 starts) ▪️ 14 IP ▪️ 5.79 ERA ▪️ 17 K ▪️ 7 BB ▪️ 1.429 WHIP ▪️-1.2 WAR

Batista was our No. 6-voted player in last year’s poll and top righthander — and then disaster struck, as he started the third Dash game of the season on April 6 and then was out more than four months with a stress fracture in his right (pitching) elbow. His return in late August was iffy, with three poor relief appearances of five. But he ended the season with a scoreless (two-inning) “opener” start, which hopefully reverses the curse for 2026.


Ryan Burrowes
Second Baseman
Age 21
2024 SSS Prospect Vote ranking 23
2025 SSS Prospect Vote ranking N/R
2025 high level Winston-Salem (High-A)
Age relative to high level -2.0 years
Overall 2025 stats (Low-A/High-A) 111 games ▪️ 6 HR ▪️ 39 RBI ▪️ .255/.342/.355 ▪️ 47-of-53 (88.7%) SB ▪️ 39 BB ▪️ 110 K ▪️ .976 FLD%▪️ 1.1 WAR

It feels like Burrowes has been around forever, and he’s still only 21 years old (and playing at a level significantly younger than his age). His first taste of High-A ball went pretty well, as his baserunning seems to have no trouble translating at any level. The hit tool is solid, although he continues to struggle with contact — a no-no for a speed-over-power guy.


Reudis Diaz
Right-handed relief pitcher
Age 20
2025 high level ACL (Rookie)
Age relative to high level -2.1 years
Overall 2025 stats 1-1 ▪️ 1 SV▪️ 21 games (4 finishes) ▪️ 27 2/3 IP ▪️ 2.28.ERA ▪️ 18 K ▪️ 8 BB ▪️ 1.084 WHIP ▪️1.2 WAR

Who? You’re forgiven for being unfamiliar with an extremely young arm who hasn’t yet gotten out of rookie ball, but our No. 77 prospect a year ago (then a starter, repeating the DSL and killing it) made a successful adjustment Stateside. He’ll return to starting in 2026, likely getting his feet wet in Arizona and getting a promotion to Low-A in the second half of the season.


Ryan Galanie
First Baseman
Age 25
2025 high level Birmingham (AA)
Age relative to high level +1.3 years
Overall 2025 stats (High-A/AA) 119 games ▪️ 11 HR ▪️ 94 RBI ▪️ .276/.327/.422 ▪️ 14-of-17 (82.4%) SB ▪️ 35 BB ▪️ 79 K ▪️ .995 FLD%▪️ 1.1 WAR

It’s been a slow but steady climb for this 13th-rounder in 2023. The good news here is, with the caveat that Galanie has always competed older than his level, Galanie has found some footing. While his power/slugging numbers are merely OK, he drove in 94 runs in 2025. He disappeared a bit in the playoffs for Birmingham (just four hits in six games, with five walks as well) but started every game in the march to a second consecutive Southern League title for the Barons.


Jairo Iriarte
Right-Handed Relief Pitcher
Age 24
2025 SSS Top Prospect Vote Ranking 19
2025 high level Charlotte (AAA)
Age relative to high level -4.3 years
Overall 2025 stats (Rookie/AAA) 3-3▪️ 1 SV ▪️ 37 games (5 starts, 9 finishes) ▪️ 48 IP ▪️ 7.13 ERA ▪️ 50 K ▪️ 37 BB ▪️ 1.917 WHIP ▪️ -0.8 WAR

The 2025 season was an utter disaster for Iriarte, who went from prospective South Side rotation member to lost in space. The righty, who made his brief debut in the majors in 2024, both lost the plate and misplaced his strikeout power. The Brian Bannister Pitching Lab has its work cut out here, for sure.


Javier Mogollón
Shortstop
Age 20
2025 high level Kannapolis (Low-A)
Age relative to high level -1.4 years
Overall 2025 stats 51 games ▪️ 5 HR ▪️ 19 RBI ▪️ .220/.347/.387 ▪️ 15-of-21 (71.4%) SB ▪️ 30 BB ▪️ 56 K ▪️ .971 FLD%▪️ 1.0 WAR

An ascending star just one year ago, we have to tap the breaks a bit on Mogollón after a lackluster first full season of minors ball. While still young for his level and managing to keep his head above water in a new league every season of his career, Mogollón’s undeniable hitting in Rookie ball fell off significantly with the Cannon Ballers. However, how much of that was due to battling injury is undetermined, as Mogollón was shelved for what turned out to be the season on July 2.


Yobal Rodriguez
Right-Handed Starting Pitcher
Age
18
2025 high level
DSL White Sox (Rookie)
Age relative to high level
-1.5 years
Overall 2025 stats
0-3 ▪️ 13 games (10 starts) ▪️ 30 1/3 IP ▪️2.97 ERA ▪️ 33 K ▪️ 13 BB ▪️ 1.022 WHIP ▪️ 1.2 WAR

Rodriguez is a rare DSL pitcher, not for his relatively light innings load, but as a primary starter — and at just 17 years old (Yobal turns 18 on February 9). Inasmuch as it’s tough to project anyone out of the DSL, especially pitchers, you could hardly have hoped for more from him in his pro debut.


Tyler Schweitzer
Left-Handed Starting Pitcher
Age
25
2025 high level
Charlotte (AAA)
Age relative to high level
-3.3 years
Overall 2025 stats (AA/AAA)
8-2 ▪️ 27 games (10 starts) ▪️ 99 2/3 IP ▪️4.61 ERA ▪️ 81 K ▪️ 41 BB ▪️ 1.344 WHIP ▪️ 0.8 WAR

Schweitzer relieved in most of his games in 2025, but he remains a starter in our eyes given he was consistently paired with Tanner McDougal in Birmingham Barons starts. And in Birmingham, Schweitzer was divine: 1.27 ERA that included a long scoreless streak leading to a Charlotte promotion, 0.946 WHIP. However, everything the southpaw did as a Baron, he undid as a Knight (7.92 ERA, 1.740 ERA). While other gilded arms (Drew Thorpe, Grant Taylor) get to skip Charlotte entirely, Schweitzer was not so lucky. And that luck could prevent him from ever seeing the majors.



Past South Side Sox Prospect votes

In The Lab: Houston Astros Marginal Utility

MLB: Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros

In Economics, there is a fairly basic concept known as the law of marginal utility. We usually explain this to students through the use of pizza. Each slice of pizza is a little less satisfying than the one before it. This lesson is usually taught at a similar time as the law of diminishing returns. They are similar concepts and both have a ton of relevance for big league baseball teams.

One of the more infamous lines from “Blazing Saddles” was when Mel Brooks character (the governor) said, “we gotta do something to save our phony baloney jobs!” I imagine the job of general manager is the same in many instances. Executives want to look like they are actually doing something. It comes down to being able to explain yourself when things don’t work. If you can point to moves that were popular at the time then you can plausibly deny responsibility for the failure.

Of course, this is organizational groupthink we are describing. This has little to do necessarily with what Dana Brown or Jim Crane might be thinking. It is an industry wide issue. We can illustrate this psychological dilemma with the Astros backup catcher situation. The Astros need a backup catcher now that Victor Caratini is in Minnesota. The temptation is to panic and go out and sign the biggest name available so you can show the fans you are doing something.

Some of this is about the name itself. Fans in general feel better about players they have heard of. We can dog Jeff Bagwell for hours, but he is generally right about casuals. Most people know the numbers on the back of the baseball card. Some of it is an overall perception. If Jim Crane says he is willing to spend up to the CBT then fans feel better if the team spends all of those available funds. That is true whether all of those funds are actually dedicated to making the team better or not.

The Astros currently have two internal options at backup. Cesar Salazar has come up for brief cups of coffee in each of the past two seasons. Framber Valdez notwithstanding, most pitchers enjoy pitching to him and he comes in with high marks as a receiver. The minor league offensive numbers are not sparkling, but he is slated to be a backup catcher and those players may make 40 starts in a typical season.

The club also signed Carlos Perez to what we commonly refer to as an NRI. That stands for non-roster invitee. It is officially a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training. He has spent parts of five seasons with the Angels and Athletics, but has never done anything more than perform as a backup at the big league level. However, he has seen a power uptick since 2021 where he has hit 27 or more home runs four different times.

Those players have little in their track records to compare with Jonah Heim and Christian Vazquez historically. Thus, we get to the Bagwell theory. Those numbers have relevance only insofar as they are likely to be repeated. Thus, we get to the crux of the law of marginal utility. A player’s extra income must justify additional production. If you are paying more money for the same thing then you are overpaying. In a universe where resources are limited, you cannot afford to pay extra for the same thing. Below are the ZIPS DC projections for the four catchers mentioned. ZIPS DC stands for ZIPS Depth Chart. They include the same percentage stats, but estimate playing time based who is likely to be on the team’s depth chart.

AVGOBPSLGwOBAFWAR
Cesar Salazar.213.312.325.2880.7
Carlos Perez.218.288.395.2970.6
Jonah Heim.221.280.342.2740.6
Christian Vazquez.226.281.315.2650.7

Most of you are familiar with the basic stats here, but you may be unfamiliar with weighted on base average (wOBA). Essentially, it takes everything a hitter does and converts into a number that approximates OBP. Therefore, it can be interpreted the same way. The league average tends to hover between .320 and .33o depending on the season. So, none of these guys are good offensive players. For instance, Yainer Diaz is projected to have a .317 wOBA according to ZIPS. So, none of these catchers are going to seriously challenge Yainer for playing time.

However, all of these catchers have roughly the same value because of differences in defensive skills. In a vacuum, signing either Heim or Vazquez is defensible based on their projected overall value. According to Fangraphs, the current going rate for wins is somewhere between eight and nine million dollars. Obviously, this is theoretical in nature since many players are pre-arbitration players making pennies on the dollar, but in free agency, these rates normally average out fairly well.

So, paying a Heim or a Vazquez in the neighborhood five million or less seems reasonable on its face. If the Astros signed such a contract with one of those two then it would be defensible on that level. Yet, when you already have two catchers projected to produce the same value it makes less sense. So, each additional catcher is like that additional slice of pizza. It is just less useful than the one before it.

Depending on the source, the Astros have approximately nine million left to spend under the CBT. That might not be enough for anything really useful, but if you shed some salary here or there you could afford an extra position player or starting pitcher. That money gets eaten away when you add in a catcher that might not be any better than the guys you already have.

Organizations limit themselves all the time by chasing veterans on the margins. There is some positive utility there. Veterans can help stabilize a clubhouse under the right circumstances, and there might be the slightest of bumps at the gate. Yet, when resources are finite, the teams that do the best are the ones that resist that temptation. They either get veterans for far underneath their going rate or they rely on younger players. The Astros probably will go that direction at catcher.

ZiPS projected standings have Yankees fourth in AL East for 2026 MLB season

ZiPS' projected standings for the 2026 MLB season have the Yankees fighting for a playoff spot.

The projections, via Dan Szymborski at FanGraphs, "are the result of a million simulations."

Szymborski explains:

"These are median standings, meaning that they represent every team’s 50th-percentile projection. These have a tighter range than the actual standings because we don’t expect every team to hit their 50th-percentile projection, but rather for three teams, on average, to beat their 90th-percentile projection, six to beat their 80th-percentile projection, and so on."

In other words, the win totals in the projections skew a bit low. 

Now, the projections...

  • The Yankees finish with a record of 87-75, putting them in fourth place in the AL East (behind the 90-72 Blue Jays, 90-72 Red Sox, and 88-74 Orioles)
  • That 87-75 record has the Yanks tied for the fifth-best record in the AL (behind the Jays, Red Sox, O's, and 88-74 Mariners) and tied for the eighth-best record in MLB (also behind the Dodgers, Phillies, and Mets)
  • In this scenario, the Yankees would be tied for the third Wild Card in the AL with the 87-75 Astros
  • The other projected AL playoff teams are the Jays, Red Sox, O's, Tigers (83-79, AL Central winner) and M's (AL West winner)
  • The Yankees' World Series win percentage is 5.4, which is the eighth-highest in MLB.

On the Yankees and the AL East, Szymborski writes:

"ZiPS doesn’t see the AL East all that differently from how it did last preseason, though it does anticipate a slightly larger separation at the top of the division, with the Jays and Red Sox tied for first, and the Orioles and Yankees falling a couple of games back." 

Barring a late bold move, the Yanks will be mostly running it back in 2026.

Their biggest move this offseason was to re-sign Cody Bellinger. Beyond that, Trent Grisham accepted the QO to return. New York also traded with the Marlins for starting pitcher Ryan Weathers, and allowed both Devin Williams and Luke Weaver to leave via free agency.

Good Morning San Diego: Padres still have needs with Spring Training just weeks away; Ramon Laureano could exceed expectations

WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 24: Jake Cronenworth #9 of the San Diego Padres plays first base against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on July 24, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The San Diego Padres have needs, but to this point in the offseason, they have not been addressed. Thomas Conroy of Gaslamp Ball talks about the need for the Padres to address the first base position and includes a possible trade candidate in Nick Castellanos as well as a free agent candidate that San Diego fans are very familiar with in Luis Arraez. There has been some talk about the Padres possibly trading for a player like CJ Abrams from the Washington Nationals which would likely result in Jake Cronenworth moving back to first base. San Diego has options and there are other trade possibilities and free agents available for the Padres to address their needs, but with Spring Training less than two weeks away, they should address the vacancy sooner than later.

Padres News:

  • Ramon Laureano was added to the San Diego roster at the 2025 trade deadline and a big reason he was added by the Padres is his $6.5 million club option for the 2026 season. With Laureano in the starting lineup, San Diego will not have to have a committee of players like Jason Heywayd, Connor Joe and Brandon Lockridge to handle one position on the roster. Cheri Bell of Gaslamp Ball reminds fans that Laureano should not be overlooked and expects him to have a solid year with a full season in San Diego. Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune also focuses on Laureano for his Padres roster review adding further insight as to what Padres fans can expect from the left fielder in 2026.
  • The Padres and left-hander Marco Gonzales reached a minor league deal with an invitation to Spring Training. If he makes the roster, Gonzalez would make $1.5 million and could earn another $1 million in incentives.
  • Keith Law of The Athletic listed catcher Ethan Salas as the No. 70 prospect on his top 100 list earlier in the week. He released his organizational rankings Thursday and the Padres farm system was 30th in MLB.
  • Late Monday it was reported the Padres had “checked in” on free agent pitcher Zac Gallen formerly of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors reported that Jon Heyman said the Padres are longshots for Gallen.

Baseball News:

Grizzlies vs Pelicans Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s NBA Game

The Memphis Grizzlies head to the Big Easy tonight for a matchup with the New Orleans Pelicans at the Smoothie King Center.

Saddiq Bey cooked Memphis a week ago, and my Grizzlies vs. Pelicans predictions are eyeing him to do so again.

Read more in my NBA picks for Friday, January 30.

Grizzlies vs Pelicans prediction

Grizzlies vs Pelicans best bet: Saddiq Bey Over 17.5 points (-110)

Saddiq Bey is having a nice campaign for the struggling New Orleans Pelicans, averaging 15.9 PPG in 42 games played. The Villanova product has averaged nearly 20 points per game in January, and he’s been rolling lately.

Bey has cashed the Over in points in four of his last six appearances. Last Thursday, he dropped 36 points on the Grizzlies, and he also poured in 24 on Sunday against the San Antonio Spurs.

In Bey’s last game at home, he scored 20 points against the Detroit Pistons, and he’s averaging 16.7 PPG at the Smoothie King Center compared to 15.1 on the road.

Across three meetings with the Memphis Grizzlies, he’s also averaging 22.3 PPG. 

Grizzlies vs Pelicans same-game parlay

Jose Alvarado is a sparkplug for the Pels, averaging 7.9 PPG with serious energy on both ends of the floor. While he’s only hit the Over in points once in his last five appearances, Alvarado is averaging 8.6 PPG at home compared to 6.7 on the road.

He also scored 24 points in one game against the Grizzlies this season. Alvarado will make his presence felt at the Smoothie King Center.

Trey Murphy is a solid three-point shooter, averaging 3.0 makes on 8.2 attempts for a 36.9% clip. However, his total is too high tonight for my liking.

Murphy has cashed the Under in triples in five consecutive outings, and he’s only averaging 1.7 makes from deep against Memphis this season for a 26.3% clip.

Grizzlies vs Pelicans SGP

  • Saddiq Bey Over 17.5 points
  • Jose Alvarado Over 6.5 points
  • Trey Murphy Under 3.5 made threes

Our "from downtown" SGP: JJ's Way!

Jaren Jackson Jr. has cashed the Over in rebounds in three of his last four, and he grabbed 12 boards last week against the Pelicans.

Grizzlies vs Pelicans SGP

  • Saddiq Bey Over 17.5 points
  • Jose Alvarado Over 6.5 points
  • Trey Murphy Under 3.5 made threes
  • Jaren Jackson Over 5.5 rebounds

Grizzlies vs Pelicans odds

  • Spread: Grizzlies +1.5 (-110) | Pelicans -1.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Grizzlies +130 | Pelicans -150
  • Over/Under: Over 241.5 (-110) | Under 241.5 (-110)

Grizzlies vs Pelicans betting trend to know

The Memphis Grizzlies have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 40 away games (+12.70 Units / 29% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Pelicans.

How to watch Grizzlies vs Pelicans

LocationSmoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA
DateFriday, January 30, 2026
Tip-off7:30 p.m. ET
TVFDSN Southeast Memphis, Pelicans+

Grizzlies vs Pelicans latest injuries

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George Valera is our No. 13 Guardians prospect. Who should be No. 14?

CLEVELAND, OHIO - OCTOBER 01: Fans cheer after George Valera #35 of the Cleveland Guardians hit a home run during the first inning against the Detroit Tigers in game two of the American League Wild Card Series at Progressive Field on October 01, 2025 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Like a phoenix from the ashes, just like Daniel Espino the day before, George Valera returns to the Covering the Corner prospect rankings after not being included last year. Valera dominated the voting yesterday, earning 38.61% of the vote, beating out Jace Laviolette (28.6%) and Joey Oakie (12.7%). Valera had previously been ranked in every CTC top 20 from 2018 all the way to 2024.

I feel like I’ve been writing about him forever, but Valera’s journey was incredible, debuting at No. 10 in 2018 before he ever played a game in the Cleveland minor league system. He bumped up to No. 3 in 2019, dropped to No. 6 in 2020, moved up to No. 4 in 2021, soared all the way to No. 1 in 2022, dropped back to No. 3 in 2023, then to No. 6 in 2024 before being removed from the rankings entirely in 2025 after he’d been DFA’d by the team in the offseason following a major knee injury that required reconstruction.

It felt like everyone had given up on Valera — myself included — after he ruptured the patella tendon in his right knee attempting to make a catch on the outfield wall in September 2024. He also missed time due to suspension after making contact with an umpire while fighting an opposing team’s catcher in 2023. It seemed like that was the final nail in the coffin for the oft-injured, but always promising former top prospect.

He had consistently been excellent at almost every level, every year, a 162 wRC+ in 2018, a 165 wRC+ at High-A in 2021, reaching Triple-A in 2022 with a 123 wRC+, but injuries piled up. He broke his hamate bone in his right hand/wrist in 2018, strained his oblique in 2021, sustained another hamate injury in 2023, then strained his hamstring in 2024 before the knee injury.

It seemed his time with Cleveland was over after he’d been removed from the 40-man roster, but Valera re-signed with Cleveland on a minor league deal, then rehabbed his knee. He returned to Columbus for a whopping two games in early June 2025 before again hitting the injured list with right flank soreness. He returned again in late July and something was different this time. Valera played like a man with nothing to lose.

The talented Dominican crushed baseballs in Columbus, even hitting for the cycle on Aug. 22. Whispers turned into screams from the rooftops for him to be promoted to Cleveland and as soon as September rolled around … it happened. Valera made his debut Sept. 1, then picked up his first MLB hit by socking a ball off the green monster in his second career game. He blasted his first career home run off Joe Ryan on Sept. 20. In his 48 plate appearances spanning 16 games at the MLB level, he slashed .220/.333/.415, good for an above average 113 wRC+.

Valera then had a moment he’ll never forget, crushing a home run in his second ever at bat in the MLB Playoffs, a first-inning solo shot off Casey Mize that helped lead Cleveland to a 6-1 game two victory.

With Cleveland releasing Jhonkensy Noel and Will Brennan and not signing additional outfield help in free agency, a starting outfield job appears to be Valera’s to lose for the upcoming 2026 season.

Now, it’s time to determine who is number 14 in the Guardians’ loaded farm system and you now have a whopping 10 players to choose from! Your options are below:


Juneiker Caceres, OF (Age 18)
2025 (CPX) 160 PA, .289/.419/.469, 3 HR, 5 SB, 16.9 BB%, 11.3 K%, 139 wRC+
2025 (A): 130 PA, .250/.331/.345, 1 HR, 2 SB, 6.9 BB%, 13.1 K%, 103 wRC+

Impressed at the complex league, then hit the ground running in a late season promotion to Single-A before running out of steam late in his age-17 season. Loaded with potential.

Dauri Fernandez, SS (Age 18)
2025 (ACL) 176 PA, .333/.398/.558, 6 HR, 16 SB, 9.1 BB%, 12.5 K%, 147 wRC+
2025 (A): 24 PA, .273/.250/.318, 0 HR, 2 SB, 0 BB%, 12.5 K%, 57 wRC+

One of Cleveland’s top performers in the Arizona Complex League in 2025. Undersized, but makes solid contact and doesn’t strike out often. Earned a small taste of full-season ball at the end of the year.

Franklin Gomez, LHP (Age 20)
2025 (A): 14 G, 82.0 IP, 1.85 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 21.4 K%, 11.7 BB%, 1.09 WHIP
2025 (A+): 6 GS, 48.2 IP, 1.70 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 23.4 K%, 9.9 BB%, 1.83 WHIP

Acquired from the Mets in a trade for international bonus cash, Gomez lit up Single-A in his age-19 season, then improved his walk and strikeout numbers after being promoted to High-A.

Yorman Gomez, RHP (Age 23)
2025 (A+): 17 G, 76.0 IP, 2.84 ERA, 2.92 FIP, 27.3 K%, 9.5 BB%, 1.11 WHIP
2025 (AA): 10 G, 45.2 IP, 3.15 ERA, 2.50 FIP, 28.0 K%, 9.5 BB%, 1.25 WHIP

Venezuelan prospect who broke out in with increased velocity in 2025, putting up nearly identical numbers at both High-A Lake County and Double-A Akron. Gomez was added to Cleveland’s 40-man roster.

Josh Hartle, LHP (Age 22)
2025 (A+): 22 GS, 103.1 IP, 2.35 ERA, 3.06 FIP, 24.0 K%, 8.9 BB%, 1.05 WHIP
2025 (AA): 2 GS, 10.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 2.79 FIP, 16.3 K%, 4.7 BB%, 1.50 WHIP

Acquired from Pittsburghin the Spencer Horwitz trade, Hartle was one of Cleveland’s most successful starting pitchers in its minor league system in 2025. Stands 6-foot-6, but doesn’t have a ton of velocity.

Jace LaViolette, OF (Age 22)
2025 (NCAA) 262 PA, .258/.427/.576, 18 HR, 7 SB, 21.8 BB%, 25.2K%, 120 wRC+

Cleveland’s first round pick in the 2025 MLB Draft, the 6-foot-6 LaViolette instantly becomes one of the top power hitting prospects in the system. Strikeouts and contact have been an issue, however.

Joey Oakie, RHP (Age 19)
2025 (ACL): 9 GS, 35.0 IP, 7.46 ERA, 4.67 FIP, 27.6 K%, 13.5 BB%, 1.69 WHIP
2025 (A): 6 GS, 24.1 IP, 2.22 ERA, 4.48 FIP, 30.7 K%, 14.9 BB%, 1.32 WHIP

Cleveland’s 3rd round pick in 2024 out of high school, Oakie got off to a rough start in the Complex League, but then absolutely dominated when promoted to Single-A Lynchburg with a pair of 11 strikeout performances.

Austin Peterson, RHP (Age 26)
2025 (AA): 11 GS, 55.0 IP, 1.47 ERA, 3.29 FIP, 23.9 K%, 4.9 BB%, 0.84 WHIP
2025 (AAA): 15 GS, 90.2 IP, 4.27 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 20.2 K%, 7.8 BB%, 1.37 WHIP

Absolutely dominated Double-A to begin 2025 looking well on his way to repeating his tremendous 2024 season, but then struggled after an early-season promotion to Triple-A. Remains on the 40-man roster.

Gabriel Rodriguez, SS (Age 18)
2025 (ACL) 122 PA, .294/.393/.402, 1 HR, 11 SB, 12.3 BB%, 18.9 K%, 116 wRC+

One of Cleveland’s top recent international signings, Rodriguez put up strong offensive numbers in his stateside debut in his age-18 season in 2025. Expected to transition to full-season ball this year.

Alfonsin Rosario, OF (Age 21)
2025 (A+) 354 PA, .268/.362/.490, 16 HR, 12 SB, 10.8 BB%, 25.1 K%, 139 wRC+
2025 (AA): 145 PA, .211/.303/.391, 5 HR, 2 SB, 10.3 BB%, 33.1 K%, 105 wRC+

One of Cleveland’s most impressive hitters in its minor league system during his stint at High-A Lake County as a 20-year-old. Rosario has a unique combination of speed and power, but will need to overcome his strikeouts.

Our list so far:
1. Chase DeLauter, LHH OF
2. Travis Bazzana, LHH 2B
3. Parker Messick, LHP
4. Ralphy Velazquez, LHH 1B/RF
5. Angel Genao, SH SS
6. Braylon Doughty, RHP
7. Cooper Ingle, LHH C
8. Khal Stephen, RHP
9. Juan Brito, SH 2B/1B/RF/3B
10. Jaison Chourio, SH OF
11. Kahlil Watson, LHH OF
12. Daniel Espino, RHP
13. George Valera, LHH OF