The Utah Jazz hit the road tonight to take on the Memphis Grizzlies at FedExForum, with tip-off scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET.
Lauri Markkanen already cooked Memphis earlier this season, and my Jazz vs. Grizzlies predictions are eyeing him to get started on the right foot in the second half.
Read more in my NBA picks for Friday, February 20.
Jazz vs Grizzlies prediction
Jazz vs Grizzlies best bet: Lauri Markkanen Over 23.5 points (-105)
Lauri Markkanen has been a solid player over the last few years, but he’s taken to a different level in 2025-26. The veteran is averaging a career-high 26.7 ppg, serving as the Utah Jazz’s best player.
Markkanen has cashed the Over in points in three of his last six, and he’s averaging 25.5 points per contest on the road. In fact, those three games in which he scored exactly 27 points were all away from Salt Lake City.
Most notably, he’s up against a weak Memphis Grizzlies team, whom he already dropped 26 points against on December 12.
Jazz vs Grizzlies same-game parlay
Isaiah Collier has emerged as a nice piece for the Jazz, averaging 10.4 ppg. He’s hit the Over in points in five of his last seven, and Collier scored 15 in his last game before the break.
Keyonte George won’t play tonight, which means Collier will get a bigger workload.
We’re looking at two teams who aren’t exactly elite defensively, and it’s shown in recent meetings. Five straight matchups have comfortably hit the Over, with the last two both surpassing 250 points.
Jazz vs Grizzlies SGP
Lauri Markkanen Over 23.5 points
Isaiah Collier Over 14.5 points
Over 238
Our "from downtown" SGP: Anderson's revenge
Kyle Anderson is facing his former team here, and the Grizzlies are without Ja Morant and Santi Aldama. The revenge game narrative and a bigger workload should allow Anderson to score at least 11 points here.
Jazz vs Grizzlies SGP
Lauri Markkanen Over 23.5 points
Isaiah Collier Over 14.5 points
Over 238
Kyle Anderson Over 10.5 points
Jazz vs Grizzlies odds
Spread: Jazz +1 | Grizzlies -1
Moneyline: Jazz -110 | Grizzlies -110
Over/Under: Over 238 | Under 238
Jazz vs Grizzlies betting trend to know
The Jazz have hit the Over in 28 of their last 45 games (+9.30 Units / 19% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Jazz vs. Grizzlies.
How to watch Jazz vs Grizzlies
Location
FedExForum, Memphis, TN
Date
Friday, February 20, 2026
Tip-off
7:00 p.m. ET
TV
KJZZ 14, FDSN Southeast Memphis
Jazz vs Grizzlies latest injuries
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INDIANAPOLIS – NCAA President Charlie Baker reiterated Thursday his desire to see his men’s and women’s basketball tournaments expand, though he admitted the timeline for such a move remains unclear.
Speaking with reporters during a Q&A session ahead of the NCAA’s annual mock selection process, Baker again threw his support firmly behind the idea of expanding the tournament field, which has been at 68 teams on the men’s side since 2011 and on the women’s side since 2022.
“We’re still talking to the various players in this one,” Baker said. “I would like to see it expand.”
Baker did not commit to a targeted field size, though a number in the 70s — in particular, 76 — has long been mentioned.
There remain a number of potential hold-ups, including logistical and seeding issues. Baker did underscore he was not concerned about added costs to the NCAA, which pays not just for the tournament itself but also teams’ participation, including travel and accommodations.
More obstructive might be what Baker termed corporate conversations among the association’s partners.
Baker did not clarify said concerns, only raising them briefly, but the implication was straightforward enough.
CBS, for example, only six months ago saw its parent company, Paramount Global, complete an $8 billion merger with Skydance Media.
More fundamentally, Baker’s point was any potential tournament expansion would not happen in a vacuum, and is therefore not solely the concern of the NCAA. Its various corporate and broadcast partners would need to be heavily involved, to ensure new bracketing structures, host-site needs, TV demands and additional costs could all be managed.
Still, he reiterated an earnest ambition to see the tournament expand, citing his desire to in equal measure create more opportunities for bubble teams, and also protect automatic qualifiers from the long-term threat of revenue-driven expansion crowding them out.
Baker could not — or perhaps more pointedly, would not — commit to a target date for such a move. But he kept the weight of his office firmly behind the possibility.
“I would like,” Baker reiterated, “to expand the tournament.”
SARASOTA, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 18: Tyler Wells #68 of the Baltimore Orioles poses for a photo during Spring Training photo day at Ed Smith Stadium on February 18, 2026 in Sarasota, Florida. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The start of spring training signing of Chris Bassitt to get him into the Orioles starting rotation has made the role of a couple of incumbent O’s pitchers much less certain. If the team makes it through spring training without any injuries to the rotation mix – a big if – what happens to Tyler Wells?
Before the Bassitt signing, Wells figured to be the “next man up” for the starting rotation mix, who might get some play if Zach Eflin is more delayed in his return from back surgery than has been indicated so far. Now, it’s less clear what they will or should do with him, assuming nothing else changes.
Entering his sixth major league season at age 31, do the Orioles want to keep him as a long reliever? Will they prefer to have him stretched out as a starting pitcher, in which case they could still choose to use one of his remaining minor league options to send him to Triple-A Norfolk? They could even return him to the sort of relief role he occupied in his rookie year, when it looked like he might have some potential as a late-inning guy.
What do you think happens with Wells? Let us know in the comments below.
FORT MYERS, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 11: Johan Oviedo #29 of the Boston Red Sox and Brayan Bello #66 of the Boston Red Sox react during a workout at JetBlue Park at Fenway South on February 11, 2026 in Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images) | Getty Images
It’s pitching preview time, ladies and gentlemen. Over the next several days, I’ll be writing 10,000 words or so about everyone you might see pitching for the Red Sox to start the season. I’ve put the team’s starting options into tiers because that’s how my brain works. Don’t think of them as rankings, but rather buckets based on some similarities I see.
Tier three is made up of Brayan Bello and Johan Oviedo, two pitchers who have established themselves as major leaguers but who have yet to put all the pieces of the puzzle together. The potential is off the charts, but the floor is low.
Brayan Bello
2025 in a sentence:Bello had a solid year, but his strikeouts were down, the ball was in play, and he struggled late in the season.
Sonny Gray’s season line would lead many to believe he’s a bottom-of-the-rotation pitcher, when the underlying numbers tell a better story. Brayan Bello’s season line, on the other hand, paints him in a more positive light than a look under the hood.
In 29 appearances (28 starts and 1 weird five-inning appearance to resume a rain-delayed game), Bello posted a career-best 3.35 ERA. That mark was the ninth-best in the American League among qualifiers. At the same time, his K-BB%, one of the best predictors of future performance, was 48th of 52 qualifiers. Most public projection systems have Bello’s 2026 ERA somewhere between 4.00 and 4.50.
We’ll start with the good. Bello throws a 95 mph sinker that reached up to 99 mph at times. He uses it 50% of the time against righties, and there’s not a ton they can do with it. It has 18 inches of horizontal break; he gets it in on righties’ hands well, and induces tons of weak contact as a result. The sinker is a great table setter for Bello against righties, but he needs to refine the rest of his approach.
He introduced a cutter that became his second-most thrown pitch to right-handers by the end of the season. It worked well, earning strikes at a high rate and limiting hard contact. He struggled in September when he had a hard time throwing the pitch in the zone, and the strike rate fell about eight percent, but end-of-season fatigue could be to blame. Overall, the pitch was a solid addition to his repertoire.
More pressing than getting strikes, for Bello, was ending at-bats. His putaway rate was just 16.6%, 90th of 127 starters with at least 100 innings pitched. Against righties, he used a sweeper most often and had some success, but overall, it was an average offering. He paired it with backdoor sinkers that also had limited success. His four-seam fastball was ineffective with two strikes despite solid command at the top of the zone, and he left too many cutters over the plate rather than landing them on the glove side.
Bello had similar problems against lefties. His sinker and cutter went for strikes frequently, but lefties made better contact than righties. With two strikes, he doesn’t have a single above-average offering. He went to his changeup frequently, but the slow ball was never in the zone and wasn’t enticing enough to punch hitters out. He tried his four-seam and sweeper as well, but neither provided positive results. Overall, it resulted in a 16.3% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate to lefties. Bello was able to navigate through jams and keep runs off the board, but that style is likely unsustainable over a larger sample.
When Bello takes the mound for the first time in 2026, he might look different. He’s reportedly working on a new curveball in Spring Training. It remains to be seen what the shape will look like, but in theory, it could be flipped in for early strikes against lefties and serve as a putaway pitch in the dirt later in counts. Edward Cabrera throws from a similar arm slot and could provide a blueprint for the shape, though Cabrera is a few inches taller. Bello’s also reportedly tinkering with his changeup. An improved changeup is arguably the most important pitch for the righty, who needs something to put away lefties with regularly. If he can’t figure out complementary pitches, his sinker still gives him a solid floor as a back-of-the-rotation arm, but Bello’s sights should be set much higher.
2025 in a sentence: Oviedo flashed serious potential when he returned from Tommy John surgery and a lat injury.
Of the Red Sox’s starting pitching acquisitions, Oviedo is the least flashy, but you could make the case that he has the highest ceiling. He made his season debut in August and made nine appearances for the Pirates, posting a 3.57 ERA and 24.7% strikeout rate.
The story for Oviedo, basically since he entered the league, is about throwing strikes. His career walk rate is 11%, much higher than your typical top-of-the-line starter. “Fixing” his walk problem is fairly straightforward, and it comes down to his fastballs. Oviedo has a five-pitch mix: four-seam, sinker, slider, curveball, and changeup. The slider and curveball each function as strike-getters. The slider is used early in counts, is in the zone a ton, and manages to avoid hard contact, while the curveball is in the zone less, but still gets strikes at a high clip. Lefties see more early curveballs, while righties see a heavy dose of sliders.
With two breaking balls getting strikes at a high clip, you’d think walks wouldn’t be an issue. However, in 2025, and for most of his career, his fastballs weren’t holding up their end of the bargain. Against righties, his four-seam and sinker accounted for about 50% of his pitches, and the strike rates were just 54% and 52%, respectively. Lefties saw 39% four-seams, and just 55% of them were strikes. Here’s the kicker: his fastball, by stuff, is probably his best pitch. It averaged 95.5 mph and was thrown with 7.4 feet of extension. The approach angle is among the flattest in the league. It’s not dissimilar from Payton Tolle’s lauded fastball.
If Oviedo can rein in his fastball and get the strike rate closer to 65%, he could be an All-Star. I’d actually be willing to bet that if he throws 65% strikes with his fastball, he will be an All-Star. If he can’t, there’s a case to be made for leaning even further into “pitching backwards”. Throw more breaking balls early in counts, and use the fastball above the zone to put hitters away. He has an option year remaining, which could make him the odd man out at the start of the season. Regardless of his role, he’s a 6’6”, 275-pound sculpture that just needs the finishing touches.
Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval make up the next tier. It’s difficult to project either of them as they haven’t pitched since 2024, but they’ve each shown bat-missing stuff in the past.
Kutter Crawford
2025 in a sentence: Knee and wrist injuries kept Crawford off the field for all of 2025.
Kutter Crawford was a pitcher who many picked to break out in 2024, and while he put together a solid season (4.36 ERA over 183.2 innings), he didn’t quite make the jump that many expected. He struck out 23.1% of hitters while walking 6.7% over 33 starts, but home runs were an issue as he led the league with 34 allowed.
Crawford had reverse splits, limiting lefties to a .683 OPS while righties posted a .732 mark. Lefties did account for 20 of the 34 home runs with a roughly equal number of at-bats, however. The key to his success against lefties is, you guessed it, his cutter. The pitch has more horizontal movement than the average cutter, while holding its vertical plane well. He’s able to throw the pitch high and glove side against lefties early in counts, racking up strikes and jamming hitters. His four-seam has elite vertical movement, but it didn’t miss as many bats as you’d expect in 2024. Against lefties in 2023, the 16.6% swinging strike rate was remarkable, but that number fell to just 10.5% in 2024. The velocity fell about a tick, potentially due to the knee injury he was fighting, which could explain the regression, but it was a worse pitch regardless of the reasoning. The ICR% also jumped from a stellar 29.4% to a terrible 48.3%. Hopefully, additional velocity comes with health and can help the pitch become a plus offering once again because it’s such an important pitch for Crawford. The fastball and cutter do most of the heavy lifting, but he also featured a splitter that performed well in 2024. He used it in about 16% of his two-strike counts, and the results were great. Despite a high zone rate, he generated swings and misses on 21% of his pitches, reliably punching lefties out. The contact against it wasn’t hard either, as he kept it on the outer half consistently. I should note that his mistake rate with the splitter was high, though it wasn’t punished. Regardless, Crawford needs a two-strike offering against lefties, and the splitter fits the bill.
Against righties, it’s a similar story. In 2024, he used a nearly equal split of four-seams, cutters, and sweepers. The four-seam and cutter each generated strikes at a high rate, but the former was hit incredibly hard. Unlike against lefties, its performance was in line with 2023, besides a slight dip in whiffs. His cutter was excellent against righties, located down and away rather than up and in. His sweeper was a solid third pitch, though a true putaway breaking ball might help him find more strikeouts.
The last version of Crawford we saw has the makings of a solid pitcher, though unspectacular. Home runs were his undoing, with almost 50% of his earned runs allowed coming via the long ball. While his plan of attack will always present the opportunity for home runs, his 23.1% home run/fly ball rate is sure to come down to a more reasonable number.
To me, velocity feels like the key for Kutter going into 2026. If he’s sitting 93-94, he likely will be one of the best five pitchers on the roster. If he’s closer to 91 mph, his upside will be limited. He’s already a little bit behind schedule due to the flu, so he could start the season in the bullpen. Part of me has always wondered how he would look throwing 91 mph cutters 50% of the time. He’s got the arsenal to start, but he could be an elite relief option if things shake out that way.
Patrick Sandoval
2025 in a sentence: Sandoval hasn’t pitched since June 2024 due to elbow trouble.
It’s been almost two years since Sandoval saw game action, and his last season wasn’t a good one. He registered a 5.08 ERA over 79.2 innings before being shut down with an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery. He’s a reclamation project, which hasn’t worked for the Red Sox recently, but his ceiling is high if they can figure it out.
At his best, Sandoval gave lefties a ton of trouble. In 2022, he struck out almost 25% of lefties while walking just 6%. He did it with a slider-heavy approach, using it 49% of the time to great effect. It’s a gyro slider that he was able to use in the zone effectively for both called strikes and whiffs. In 2023, he leaned more into a cutter shape and had a hard time finding the zone with it, limiting his strike rate. In 2024, he threw the pitch harder than ever and in the zone more than ever while cutting the usage, which kept the strike rate high, but led to hard contact against it. After the slider, his sinker has always been his most used secondary pitch to lefties. In 2024, Sandoval had control problems, and hitters were patient. Aside from that season, when he wasn’t fully healthy, the pitch has returned high strike rates and poor contact quality. With usage around 30%, the ground ball rate against it has never been lower than 56%. He used a four-seam as a surprise two-strike offering as well, but it’s never been a particularly effective pitch. Going forward, I’d expect to see more sinkers on the inner half to lefties, while continuing to use his slider in and out of the zone. There’s a case to be made for creating two distinct pitch shapes as well, throwing a harder cutter and a softer sweeper or slider.
Right-handed hitters have been more of a problem. Throughout his career, Sandoval has never had a great answer for them. He uses a changeup about 30% of the time that performs well, but it doesn’t return strikes at a high enough rate to limit walks. He uses his sinker, four-seam, and slider as well, with none generating great results. “Just add a cutter” is cliched advice, but for Sandoval, it could provide a pitch to get ahead of righties and allow him to use both sides of the plate.
There’s also the question of whether he will be on the team. Sandoval’s name has been floated in trade rumors all offseason due to his salary. A pitching-needy team with an injury or two could take a flyer on the lefty to fill out their rotation. The Red Sox are also short on lefties. If he’s not in the rotation, he’ll likely remain stretched out for a long-relief role, but he could be used to match up with some lefties in leverage spots as well.
Phoenix, AZ - February 17, 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman (5) at the 2026 Dodgers spring training at Camelback Ranch, Phoenix, AZ on February 17, 2026. (Eric Thayer / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)
Freddie Freeman is now at the latter third of his six-year deal he signed with the Dodgers following the 2021-22 lockout.
After spending parts of 12 seasons with the Atlanta Braves, concluding with a World Series championship in 2021, Freeman has created a new legacy in Los Angeles, setting the team’s single season doubles record in 2023 and helping the Dodgers win two straight titles, being named World Series MVP in 2024. Although his current contract is up after the 2027 season, Freeman has shown no indication of wanting to take his talents elsewhere.
Sonja Chen of MLB.com writes about Freeman’s desires to play until he is 40 years old, noting that he would like to do so while still wearing a Dodgers uniform.
“I love being here,” Freeman said Thursday… “I’m not worried about another contract, not going to bring it up, not going to talk about it. I got two years left. I’m just an employee. I just do my job, and if they want me back, they want me back. But I think [president of baseball operations] Andrew [Friedman] and everyone knows that I love being here.”
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Mookie Betts suffered the worst offensive season of his big league career last year, and yet, he was still one of the most valuable shortstops in the National League due to his superb defense. But that alone won’t satisfy him.
Dave Roberts will be eyeing a bounce back season for Betts in 2026, one that will include him in MVP conversations, and will be prioritizing Betts’ health throughout the duration of the year, notes Jack Vita of the Los Angeles Times.
“He will be in the MVP conversation this year,” Roberts said this week. “But again, I think, speaking for Mookie, his main goal is to help us win a championship. So, I think whatever falls out from there, I think that will happen. I just want him to focus on just being healthy, helping us win, and then whatever happens outside of that, will happen.”
Evan Phillips discussed his foray in free agency this offseason, ultimately ending with him returning to the Dodgers, and noted that despite not being to take the field until midseason, he is glad to be back in Los Angeles, per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register.
“It was my first crack at free agency, at least on this side of things. Being a minor-league free agent was probably less attractive to most teams. Yeah, it was different… I’m not too worried about the timeline yet but definitely glad to be back in Dodger blue.”
With Blake Snell questionable to be ready by opening day, Justin Wrobleski is a name to keep an eye on as the Dodgers formulate their starting rotation for the beginning of the season, notes Chen.
New York Yankees infielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. has his sights set on joining Shohei Ohtani in the 50-50 club, writes Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. Chisholm has career-highs of 31 home runs and 40 stolen bases, so a 40-40 season would be a much more realistic expectation.
Detroit Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal throws at live batting practice during spring training at TigerTown in Lakeland, Fla. on Wednesday, Feb. 18, 2026. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Spring Training is underway! There is new stuff coming out of camps everyday now, a respite from the off-season doldrums where we hashed and re-hashed the same few unresolved debates. Who knew that they were running a special on hamate bone repair this month?
As is my want, I tend to zig on writing topics when everyone else zags. New and fresh spring training camp content is hard to come by, so I’m going sojourn off to previously plowed fields on drafting (and signing IFAs) and developing minor league players. As discussed in other venues, I have been working on some methodological changes to my series on draft-and-development. A lot of focus has been in the arena of trying to better discriminate the draft from the development part (difficult to do!). I have some preliminary results. Needs more work, which will be greatly improved by your contributions in the comments sections.
In pondering how to discriminate development from drafting, I decided the most intuitive way would be to evaluate how players improved (or not) from their first (draft) ranking (in FV terms) to where they have ended up. To be certain, one can’t actually determine if a single player improving from a 40+ to a 50 outcome is because of development or because the rating was artificially low. My sense was that although individual outcomes would be difficult to tease apart, I could look at organization-wide outcomes and see if there were trends that transcend individual rating misses.
For example, I might (in theory) see a team like the Cardinals consistently turn a higher percentage of 45 FV prospects into average (50 FV) MLB players. A single under-rated player is probably not uncommon. A repeating theme of same could suggest the fine hand of player development, no?
So, I endeavored to acquire prospect ranking data. I got as far back as 2017 from Fangraphs Prospect Board, so that defined my population (and timeline). This dataset contains nearly 19,000 prospect evaluations, so it is a deep set, albeit error riddled. Ugh! Lots of data wrangling with this set. More to come, too.
You’ve heard me say that it is difficult to evaluate a draft before 7-10 years have passed, and yet I only have a nine year data set to analyze. So, I also endeavored to try to shorten that window a bit, borrowing an idea from Ben Clemens of FG here, who proposed it is rational to take Zips 3-year forward projections and append them to young players short history to develop a more comprehensive view of said player/prospect. So, I joined 5,700 Zips projections that came out a few weeks ago with the 19,000 prospect ratings, covering some 4,300 different prospects. No easy feat. Been working on this all winter, and not done yet.
In essence, as I describe players/prospects, I am describing what Zip+DC thinks this player is today and will be 3 years hence. If you accept projections as a reasonable source of analysis, then I’ve shortened my window to 4-7 years, which gets me inside that 2017 cut-off (I can find no reliable electronic data source of prospect grades prior to that year).
I had to make a couple other methodological choices which I invite you to comment on. One is, I’ve calculated each player/prospects’ actual+projected WAR value and divided that value by that player’s MLB seasons – 1 ti create an “average WAR”. Zips appears to forecast everyone 3 years out, including young-ish prospects such as Raniel Rodriguez, which I found handy. Thus, every player has a minimum of 3 seasons of data, more if they’ve made their MLB debut. I used that AverageWAR to assign an FV value of what that player is today and expected to be in the future, as compared to his prospect peers (not all players). This value is completely driven by Zips projections plus actual production and stands in contrast to the scouting grades I compared them with.
Then, I distributed that players Average WAR along the 20-80 scale, using the guidance that each 10 places is one standard deviation. Ergo, 68% of all prospects will have what I term “Adjusted FV” between 40 and 60 and 98% will fall between FV 30 and FV 70 and the remaining 5% will occupy the nether regions 20 and 80 FV. In practice, I ended up with more 20’s and 30’s because many prospects don’t make an MLB debut, don’t achieve and 35 or higher FV and have no actual production nor any Zips ratings, so they go into the waste bin.
My first test was to evaluate the prospect/players who grade out 80 from their performance and projection. A total of 5. The rarest of the rare, top .3%. You can see the list below. Definitely performances that are outlier (beyond 2 standard deviations from average). The list passes the eye test, no?
PlayerName
primary_position_name
pitcher.type
careerWAR
projectedWAR
firstFV
lastFV
Adjusted.FV
Shohei Ohtani
Two-Way Player
Starter
49.6779
18.82581
70
70
80
Shohei Ohtani
Two-Way Player
Starter
49.6779
18.82581
70
70
80
Tarik Skubal
Pitcher
Starter
19.2694
17.80266
45
60
80
Bobby Witt Jr.
Shortstop
Starter
26.7328
17.60179
55
65
80
Garrett Crochet
Pitcher
Reliever
11.8924
15.56059
45
50
80
Paul Skenes
Pitcher
Starter
10.77
15.51154
60
65
80
I scaled the AdjustedFV value by starters, relievers, and position players. In the list above, you are seeing the top .3% of each group. No relievers performed at 80 FV, FG tends to scale all pitchers to WAR per 200 IP for comparison purposes, but I found the 200 IP limit a bit anachronistic (and this is a modern data set and who pitches 200 IP anymore?) and leverage varies a lot between starters and reliever, so I chose to scale within a like cohort. Tell me if you agree with a list that shows Devin Williams as more valuable since he broke in than say, Dakota Hudson.
If this passes the eye test, then the whole data produces some MLB-wide averages we can begin to compare.
GroupTotal
MultipleRankings
TrendDown
TrendDownPct
TrendUp
TrendUpPct
Traded
TradedPct
NoChgPct
BeatProjection
BeatProjectionPct
UndershotProjection
UndershotPct
HitProjection
HitProjectionPct
4297
3710
920
25%
910
25%
713
19%
51%
1159
27%
2846
66%
292
7%
Here we see the total of 4,297 players. Most (3,710) of the players have more than one ranking, so for most prospects we can see how they evolved a bit in the minor leagues. Note that as prospects are re-evaluated (annually or semi-annually), roughly 25% go up and roughly 25% go down. A nice even distribution. I find myself surprised that 50% of original rankings remain unchanged through a minor leaguer’s career. Realize that 3,700 players get 18,500 rankings, so that tells me initial FV grades remain pretty static across MiLB. Interesting. I expected more volatility.
Another tidbit to observe. About 15% of prospects get traded during their MiLB career. This number is undoubtedly a bit higher, but in the data I only see prospects who 1) change teams, 2) have a high enough ranking that they are ranked in both organizations. Is 15% a surprisingly high or low number to you?
Here is the fun one. In spite of the somewhat sticky nature of initial FV grades given, actual output + current projection, when converted to the AdjustedFV, results in a 6% hit rate. Said another way, 94% of prospects who go on to accumulate enough juice to collect actual fWAR or gain a 3-year projection come in at least ½ of a standard deviation off their initial FV grade (which half the time is their final FV grade, too).
That is a league wide look across all prospects. To get closer to how the Cardinals are doing, I wanted to break it down by each FV grade.
firstFV
GroupTotal
MultipleRankings
TrendDown
TrendDownPct
TrendUp
TrendUpPct
Traded
TradedPct
NoChgPct
BeatProjection
BeatProjectionPct
UndershotProjection
UndershotPct
HitProjection
HitProjectionPct
35
2
2
0
0%
2
100%
0
0%
0%
1
50%
1
50%
0
0%
37.5
1369
1194
2
0%
360
30%
195
16%
70%
338
25%
1031
75%
0
0%
40
1722
1447
398
28%
282
19%
302
21%
53%
441
26%
1029
60%
252
15%
42.5
421
388
172
44%
91
23%
73
19%
32%
97
23%
317
75%
7
2%
45
472
409
213
52%
107
26%
89
22%
22%
175
37%
287
61%
10
2%
47.5
77
70
25
36%
27
39%
6
9%
26%
22
29%
52
68%
3
4%
50
140
125
63
50%
27
22%
32
26%
28%
60
43%
75
54%
5
4%
55
65
55
38
69%
10
18%
13
24%
13%
22
34%
40
62%
3
5%
60
22
19
8
42%
4
21%
3
16%
37%
1
5%
11
50%
10
45%
65
3
1
1
100%
0
0%
0
0%
0%
0
0%
3
100%
0
0%
70
4
0
0
NA
0
NA
0
NA
NA
2
50%
0
0%
2
50%
Here, you see the same interesting tidbits, broken down by FV. We can safely ignore the extreme ends of the spectrum (20,30, 70, 80) as small sample size, but in the middle seems to be a story.
For instance, we can see in this view that most players traded (~500 of the total ~700) fall in the FV 40 or FV 40+ ranks. Very few teams trade 45+ and up players, partially because they don’t have many to trade. When evaluating trades for prospects, take note. Remember this when we get to the Cardinals.
Also note that FV groups that tend to trend up the most are 35+, 45 and 45+. Almost universally, the trend downs tend to cluster in the upper-echelons of initial rankings. When evaluating draft picks, take note. FV 45 is an odd group. By far and away the group of players most likely to move off an initial 45 rating, going down 50% of the time.
Take a look at the “undershoot” column. These are the prospects who have performed (or are projected to perform) lower than their initial FV at draft/signing time. A rule of thumb would something like 70% of prospects undershoot. The percentages improve a bit with the FV 55 and up group, but those numbers are so small that a large SSS stamp is posted on them.
So, this is a Cardinals blog after all, so we should talk about them, no?
Here is the Cardinal prospect-only breakdown, following the same pattern.
firstFV
GroupTotal
MultipleRankings
TrendDown
TrendDownPct
TrendUp
TrendUpPct
Traded
TradedPct
NoChgPct
BeatProjection
BeatProjectionPct
UndershotProjection
UndershotPct
HitProjection
HitProjectionPct
37.5
47
41
0
0%
14
34%
10
24%
66%
11
23%
36
77%
0
0%
40
55
52
9
17%
12
23%
21
40%
60%
17
31%
32
58%
6
11%
42.5
13
12
3
25%
5
42%
3
25%
33%
4
31%
9
69%
0
0%
45
14
13
8
62%
1
8%
6
46%
31%
7
50%
5
36%
2
14%
47.5
1
1
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
100%
0
0%
1
100%
0
0%
50
12
11
3
27%
2
18%
6
55%
55%
7
58%
5
42%
0
0%
55
2
1
1
100%
0
0%
1
100%
0%
0
0%
2
100%
0
0%
See anything? First, the high floor, low ceiling draft approach jumps out. Interesting, even now, they are, percentage wise, a little light in the 40+, 45 and 45+ ranges. That is after all the trades and last year’s draft.
One thing that stands out to me. The Cardinals have been involved in trades of their 45 and 50 FV prospects at double the rate of league average. Remember when I wrote earlier that teams don’t appear to like to trade these prospects? The Cardinals were involved in 6 of the 32 FV 50 trades over the period. I gather that is mostly a reflection of this past off-season, but I have not proven that yet. I would hate to see how this data looked for the Cardinals before, say June, 2025.
Although the numbers are small, it is noteworthy that 11 of 15 players 45+ or higher have (or are) under their original draft projection. That would be about 70%, or right on league average for undershoot in that range. My takeaway on this? Probably that the Cardinal’s development program, in falling back, fell back to league-average. Not good enough to sustain their competitive model but not collapsed either.
I could go a lot of ways with this data. More clean-up is needed. Would love to backcast a bit farther. Thoughts? Questions? What made you wonder about that I can explore more?
I’m off to Florida early next week. I will report back while I’m there and recap after I return. If you have any questions for me to explore, put it in comments and I will try. I have an extensive list. I believe my press credentials are ready.
Sep 10, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA; General view of the helmet used by the Milwaukee Brewers before the start of the first inning against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Stan Szeto-Imagn Images | Stan Szeto-Imagn Images
We’re trying something new to continue our goal of starting (and continuing) conversations within the Brew Crew Ball community. As part of this effort, we’re implementing “Bernie’s Dugout,” a weekly open thread that we’ll drop each Friday.
Feel free to use this thread to chat about (almost) anything you want: video games, food, movies, non-baseball sports, the Brewers, you name it. As long as it’s appropriate and is allowed by our moderators, it’s fair game here.
Port St. Lucie, Fla.: New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor smiles during a spring training workout in Port St. Lucie, Florida, Feb. 16, 2026. (Photo by Alejandra Villa Loarca/Newsday RM via Getty Images) | Newsday via Getty Images
Meet the Mets
We’re 29 hours away from hearing Gary, Keith, and Ron on air for the first time in 2026, as the Mets’ spring training opener is set for a 1:10 PM EST first pitch tomorrow in Port St. Lucie. That’s a good excuse to take another look at the broadcast schedule for the Mets’ spring training games.
Francisco Lindor says he respects Steve Cohen’s decision to make the Mets captain-free for the remainder of the time that he owns the team.
Jonah Tong is adding a cutter to his repertoire this season.
This isn’t Mike Tauchman’s first time competing with a blue chip prospect for a spot on an Opening Day roster, as he started spring training in 2023 with the Cubs in a competition that included former Mets prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Howie Rose will call fewer Mets games this season, as he will not travel for road games. Should the Mets make the postseason, though, he plans to call every one of those games.
Carlos Mendoza says the Mets’ approach to the major league implementation of the ABS strike zone challenge system is to let the players challenge as much as they want in spring training so the team can see who’s good enough at it to do it in real games.
Owners have been pouring money into a reserve fund in anticipation of locking out the players when baseball’s current collective bargaining agreement expires.
Chris Bassitt, who serves on MLBPA’s executive subcommittee, spoke about owners’ desire to get a salary cap and said, “having suppressed salaries across the league so owners can make more money is not the answer.”
ESPN is launching Women’s Sports Sundays, which will feature games from the WNBA and NWSL airing in the Sunday night slot that was vacated by the network’s decision to move on from Sunday Night Baseball.
Guardians pitchers Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz have pleaded not guilty to the accusations they’re facing in the fraud case that alleges they colluded with sports bettors to rig bets.
Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue
Our daily question asked you about a spring training story line that will age poorly.
That’s not the case for the Lakers (33-21), who are in fifth place in the Western Conference even though LeBron James, Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves have only played 10 of the team’s 54 games together.
Everything considered, it’s impressive.
James has missed 18 games, including the first 14 because of sciatica. Doncic has missed 12 games, including the last four because of a left hamstring strain. And Reaves was sidelined for 26 games, including missing over a month because of a left calf strain.
LeBron James #23 of the Los Angeles Lakers and Austin Reaves #15 of the Los Angeles Lakers high five during the game against the Philadelphia 76ers on February 5, 2026 at Crypto.Com Arena in Los Angeles, California. NBAE via Getty Images
In total, the Lakers’ three biggest stars have logged 152 minutes together this season. For perspective, Luke Kennard, whom the Lakers acquired at the trade deadline two weeks ago, has already played 96 minutes. And Bronny James, who averages only 7.3 minutes a game, has already surpassed the Big Three in time spent on the court with 211 minutes.
This much is clear: We don’t know what the Lakers are capable of on offense, which is an exciting prospect for a team that ranks 11th in the league in that category.
So, as the Lakers enter the stretch run with 28 games remaining, the biggest question surrounding them is bigger than they’d like.
Who are they?
If their Big Three is healthy, could they make some noise in the playoffs?
James, who has been to the Finals 10 times and won four championships with three different teams over his 23-season career, doesn’t even know the answer to that question.
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“I know that when we’ve played some of our best basketball of the season, we’ve looked very good,” James said Sunday ahead of the All-Star Game. “On the other side, when we’ve been terrible, we’ve looked disgusting.
“So, I think the most important (thing) is if we can get healthy. How many minutes we can be on the floor. How much chemistry we can build with this sprint starting.”
Los Angeles Lakers’ Luka Don¿i¿ (77) looks to pass during the first half of an NBA basketball game against the Brooklyn Nets Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2026, in New York. AP
So far, when Doncic, James and Reaves have shared the court, they’ve had a net-negative rating (-7.8), according to Cleaning the Glass.
It’s unclear whether their skills are too overlapping and their combined defense is too weak or if they just haven’t had enough time to develop a rhythm.
Doncic believes the latter is true, saying they have “big potential.”
Individually, they’re each shining.
Doncic is leading the league in points (32.8) and is third in assists (8.6). Reaves is averaging career bests in points (25.4), rebounds (five) and assists (six). And James is doing unprecedented things at age 41, averaging 22 points, 5.8 rebounds and 7.1 assists.
When the Lakers host the Clippers on Friday, the team’s Big Three is expected to play in its 11th game together. Doncic said at Lakers practice Thursday that he’ll “probably” be on the court. Reaves will no longer have a minutes restriction. And James was able to squeeze in a bit of rest around his 22nd All-Star Game.
So, with just over one-third of the Lakers’ season remaining, the pressure is on for them to figure out a way to jell.
The Lakers had a quiet trade deadline. They added Kennard, who is leading the league in 3-point percentage at 49.4. But they didn’t do anything to bolster their 23rd-ranked defense.
So, their success will be tied to whether James, Reaves and Doncic can find a way to thrive.
There are debates over whether the Lakers should prioritize trying to finish as a top-four seed to secure home-court advantage or whether they should focus on health and rest, even if it means slipping a bit in the standings.
They must gamble on the latter. It’s the only way they have a chance of unlocking their Big Three.
A lineup featuring Doncic, James and Reaves could be scary come playoff time, especially if they each commit to pouring themselves into the defensive end, alongside some combination of Marcus Smart, Rui Hachimura, Jarred Vanderbilt or Deandre Ayton.
James obviously knows what it takes to win during that time of year. Doncic led the Mavs to the Finals in 2024. And Reaves is hungry to shine in the playoffs after struggling last postseason while dealing with a left toe sprain.
In the very stacked Western Conference with the Thunder, the Spurs and the Nuggets, the Lakers’ only chance of competing is if their roster is healthy.
And even then, they’re a question mark.
It’s clear that the Big Three has incredible potential, but it’s equally unclear whether it’ll be realized.
The Lakers’ record and high-end talent, led by Luka Dončić, LeBron James and Austin Reaves, suggests they’re NBA title contenders. A deeper dive into their season-long numbers suggests they’re pretenders.
The truth, for now, lies somewhere in the middle, with the Lakers having 28 regular-season games before the postseason to determine which side of the fence they’ll end up on.
With the trade deadline and NBA All-Star Weekend firmly behind them, the Lakers’ attention has turned back toward the “sprint” that is the final two months of the regular season.
The Lakers’ record and high-end talent, led by Luka Dončić, LeBron James and Austin Reaves, suggests they’re NBA title contenders Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images
Their 33–21 record before the break, putting them at No. 5 in the Western Conference standings and 1 ½ games behind the Nuggets at No. 3, is made more impressive by the fact that Dončić (12), James (18) and Reaves (26) have missed a combined 56 games.
But they have a net rating (dead even) — which is typically a strong indicator of the quality of a group — of a team that’s expected to have a .500 record, not be 12 games over the mark.
What are the factors that’ll determine the Lakers’ success to close the season?
1. Elite offense
With Dončić, James and Reaves at the helm for over the last year, the Lakers have been expected to be an elite offensive team.
But that hasn’t consistently been the case, especially this season.
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The Lakers’ 116.3 offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) coming out of the All-Star break ranks No. 11. Not bad — but not good enough for a team with as clear defensive shortcomings as the Lakers.
NBA contenders are usually very good to elite on at least one end of the floor, if not both. So far, they’ve been neither despite Dončić, James and Reaves all performing at All-NBA or All-Star levels offensively.
With Dončić, James and Reaves at the helm for over the last year, the Lakers have been expected to be an elite offensive team. Getty Images
For context, the Nuggets have a 127.5 offensive rating when Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon have shared the floor this season. The Thunder have scored 121.5 points per 100 possessions when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren have played together. The Spurs with Victor Wembanyama, De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle? A 116.5 offensive rating,
Injuries have led to Dončić, James and Reaves only playing 152 minutes together so far through 10 combined games.
But they don’t have a strong track record of offensive success together going back to last season.
Yes, the Lakers were elite offensively in the minutes their Big 3 was on the floor last season, scoring 121.6 points per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning The Glass. But so much of that playing time came with Dorian Finney-Smith, the 3-and-D connector who’s now on the Rockets, also being on the floor.
The collective high-level shot-making when Dončić, James and Reaves are on the court together provides optimism for what the Lakers’ offense can be. With their star trio coming out of the break healthy and available, the Lakers have time to work on the other kinks in their offense over the next two months before a potential playoff run.
Injuries have led to Dončić, James and Reaves only playing 152 minutes together so far through 10 combined games. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
2. Zone stability
The Lakers’ defensive struggles weren’t a surprise considering their roster construction. But they were even worse on that end of the floor than most expected to start the season.
Their 117.9 defensive rating through Jan. 17 ranked No. 26 and didn’t show many signs of improvement.
But in the Jan. 18 win over the Raptors, they implemented zone defense more than they had up to that point, leading to defensive stability over the last month.
The Lakers’ 112.7 defensive rating since Jan. 18 ranks No. 13 — a respectable figure and in line with where they need to be to have a shot at competing among the league’s best teams.
They’ve also been the most zone defense-reliant team during that stretch, which has been a catalyst for their defensive success.
Will their zone be a legitimate weapon during the season’s stretch run?
3. Deandre Ayton’s involvement
Deandre Ayton’s impact on the Lakers’ ceiling — and floor — have been evident.
The Lakers are 15-2 in the games Ayton has finished with at least 10 field-goal attempts, compared with 13-16 when he takes nine or fewer shots.
They’re 22-7 when he grabs at least eight rebounds and 6-11 when he records seven or fewer boards.
Ayton and his on-court involvement is one of the biggest swing factors for the Lakers’ success.
The Unrivaled excitement should be at an all-time high in Sephora Arena on Friday night.
Not only does the Week 6 action begin with a battle between Phantom and Laces (7:30 p.m. ET, TNT/truTV), the second and first place teams in the standings, but the second game will welcome the return of Angel Reese, when Rose takes on Hive (8:45 p.m. ET, TNT/truTV).
SHE’S BACK ‼️ Barbie Hoops back on your screens TOMORROW on TNT, truTV or HBOmax 👀 pic.twitter.com/8hCJNIMDU4
Reese’s Unrivaled arrival should thrill all fans, whether or not your allegiances lie with Rose.
Most simply, the more great players who suit up in Unrivaled, the better. And Reese is a great player. The 305 Barbie averaged an 11.6-point and 10.8-rebound double-double for Rose across 14 games last season. Those numbers earned her All-Unrivaled Second Team honors, while she also was named the league’s Defensive Player of the Year, an award she garnered largely due to her best-in-the-league defense against eventual MVP Napheesa Collier.
Reese will provide an needed injection of energy for Rose: running in transition, going all out on the glass and assuming tough defensive assignments.
The defending champs have experienced an up-and-down season, with wins often requiring clutch-time heroics from 1-on-1 Tournament champion Chelsea Gray.
However, even if Reese plays productive and positive ball, her presence might not have the immediate, winning impact envisioned. As Gray discussed when on the Unrivaled broadcast on Tuesday night, it’s going to take time to re-integrate Angel and re-establish a rhythm, even if she has experience playing with Gray, Kahleah Copper and Lexie Hull.
Critcally, Reese and Shakira Austin will have to learn to play together.
Not only has Austin been way too effective to see her minutes cut significantly for Reese, but, last season, Rose had success with two-big lineups featuring Reese and Azurá Stevens, whose departure to Hive opened the way for Reese’s return, as Rose sent out Stevens in the three-player swap without receiving a player in return. Yet, Austin is a different style of big, lacking the shooting touch of Stevens and preferring to flex her physicality around the basket. When on the court with Austin, Reese might need to play from the perimeter more often, tapping into her point forward skills and continuing to experiment with her outside shot.
On Friday night, the mere adrenaline rush of Reese’s return might be enough for Rose to get a needed win. At 5-6 and in fifth place, Rose’s postseason spot is far from secure. Plus, it was Hive that sent Rose to their first loss of the season, spoiling Rose’s 4-0 start with the unexpected 78-75 win.
At 3-8, thus needing every win to keep their playoff hopes alive, Hive will be angling for another upset.
And Hive is particularly well equipped to give Rose problems, and that’s not only due to any intel Stevens can provide or the extra motivation the former Rosebud might carry into the matchup. With Stevens, Monique Billings and Ezi Magbegor, Hive has a surfeit of size that can make Rose’s efforts to experiment with Reese-Austin lineups go awry. Billings will battle Reese for every board, Magbegor provides rim protection and Stevens can remind Rose of what they’re missing by stretching the floor and sinking a couple of 3s.
While no one will be surprised if the Point Gawd pulls another victory from the jaws of defeat for Rose, another Hive win also shouldn’t be a shock.
Don’t miss the battle between Unrivaled’s very best
Last time Phantom and Laces met, the Solemates squeaked by the Ghost Gang, winning 76-75 on a pull-up triple from Brittney Sykes.
Laces starting triumvirate of Sykes, Jackie Young and Alyssa Thomas powered them with 17, 17 and 19 points, respectively, while Phantom’s dynamic duo of Kelsey Plum and Aliyah Boston combined for almost 50 points, with KP scoring 25 and AB adding 23.
While that quintet of players all could assuming starring roles again on Friday night, both clubs sit at the top of the standings because of their reliable depth.
For Laces, Naz Hillmon has three double-doubles on the season, Maddy Siegrist has three games with multiple 3s and Jordin Canada swiped three steals in her first game back from an injury on Monday night. Phantom can turn to Kiki Iriafen, who has six double-digit scoring games from off the bench, while Natasha Cloud has been on fire from behind arc, shooting better than 40 percent from 3. Their third starter, Tiffany Hayes, has provided consistent across-the-board production.
However, the most interesting matchup is the 1-on-1 game we were denied: Thomas vs. Boston.
Will Boston’s combination of size and skill allow her to overpower Thomas on offense, as she also uses her defensive length and smarts to stall AT’s forays to the rim? Can Thomas apply of her veteran savvy to neutralize Boston’s offense, while also baiting AB into fouls that send her to the bench?
Tune in for a tilt that could determine which club finishes the season in first place.
Major League Baseball Players Association executive director Tony Clark talks to reporters March 5, 2025, at Joker Marchant Stadium in Lakeland, Florida. | Evan Petzold / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Happy Friday, everyone! Well, we survived the week. Let’s give ourselves a collective pat on the back. To celebrate, we can get excited over the fact that baseball games return today. Sure, it’s Spring Training and you can tell me all day these games don’t count, but this is the first baseball we’ve seen since October, so I’ll take what I can get, even if it is a game against the White Sox.
We’ve got news below updating the Tony Clark situation with the MLBPA, and introducing his interim replacement. We look at some up-and-coming prospects, and also spotlight when some current stars might be hanging up their cleats for good.
Plent to look forward to, plus baseball, so let’s just get right into it.
SCOTTSDALE, ARIZONA - FEBRUARY 12: Michael Lorenzen #24 of the Colorado Rockies looks on during a spring training bullpen at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick on February 12, 2026 in Scottsdale, Arizona. (Photo by Kyle Cooper/Colorado Rockies/Getty Images)
Baseball players are famously superstitious. In Charlie Blackmon’s case, he confessed to being a “little stitiious,” while mic’ed up during the 2018 All-Star Game.
More than banking on luck, Blackmon was notorious for his dedication to his routine. Gabe Bauer, the Rockies director of physical performance, shared a prime example of Blackmon’s meticulousness during Rockies Fest in January.
“He’d show up early, he’d go through all the prep work, he was a very routine-oriented person. Down at the minute,” Bauer said.
“[T]here’s one story in spring training, one of the affiliate strength and conditioning coaches was around Charlie. Charlie went up to this person and asked him what time is game time, because spring training is usually, like, 1:05 or 1:10, right? The strength coach said 1:05. The game was actually at 1:10. Charlie never spoke to that strength coach again. So, I mean, that’s how detail-oriented Charlie is.”
Bauer said that Blackmon was so strict about his routine, which included post-game workouts that could go deep into the night, that he wouldn’t even skip it after the final game of his 14-year career in 2024.
Blackmon’s disciplined regimens, from habits developed in spring training to pre- and post-game workouts, have undoubtedly left an impact on Rockies players and staff, including director of baseball operations Amir Mamdani. Mamdani joined the Rockies in 2021 as an analyst in the baseball ops department before being promoted three times, including assuming his current role in November.
Part of his job is learning what kind of information and what format different players prefer for their data. Mamdani said Blackmon preferred lots of video analysis, especially of opposing starters, as opposed to other players who may like analytics-heavy reports. Whatever the style, getting the information has to be part of that routine, and Mamdani believes Blackmon’s routine played a significant role in his career’s longevity.
“Like Charlie Blackman, who many of us were lucky to kind of observe, had one way of preparing, and that was how he got every ounce of juice out of his major league career,” Mamdani said.
For most players, their routines are year-round efforts. Bauer has noticed a difference in recent years because players are coming into spring training in good shape and ready to go.
“I feel like, nowadays, guys do a really good job of preparing themselves coming into spring training,” Bauer said.
“A lot of them have their own trainers that they work with at home. Some of them go off with a program that we give them, but there’s always that constant checking with them, and making sure that they’re getting their stuff done, getting their work in.”
Mickey Moniak, who the Rockies signed on March 27 before the best season of his career in 2025, is now experiencing his first spring training with the Rockies.
The first overall pick in the 2016 MLB Draft, Monaik took advantage of his playing time in 2025 and said he feels even more prepared for his seventh MLB season.
“For me, personally, I feel like I’ve gotten into a good routine in the offseason,” Moniak said at Rockies Fest. “You know, you’re trying to get stronger, you’re trying to get faster. But most of all, you want to go to spring training healthy and in a good spot.”
Another Rockies newcomer, RHP Michael Lorenzen — who inked a one-year deal in mid-January — credits developing a routine early in his career to his longevity on the mound. Entering his 12th season, Lorenzen said he didn’t need a lot of the elements of his routine in his early years at the time, but that he knew it would pay off in the long run.
“A daily routine is a must-have,” he said at Rockies Fest.
“I feel like for [my new teammates], as we start working together, they could show up to the field and they’re gonna know exactly where on the field they can find me at this time because I’m living in my routine all the time.
“I feel like everyone having a consistent routine where their body feels consistently the same before they pick up the baseball every single time,” Lorenzen continued. “It’s just the discipline of having that allows you to… as you throw harder, as you get older, you kind of match the experience with your stuff, and then that’s where you’re gonna hit your peak. That’s where, in this game, you get to do some fun things.”
When it comes to preparation and strict routines, it certainly looks like Lorenzen is the new Blackmon in the Rockies clubhouse.
Over the next five weeks in Arizona, the Rockies will develop or continue their routines to build the foundation for the grueling 162-game baseball season. This work will help dictate how their minds and bodies can hold up over the long grind as the Rockies look to improve in 2026.
Patrick Saunders checks in with the newest player in the competition for first base this spring training in T.J. Rumfield, the prospect the Rockies acquired in the trade for Angel Chivilli in January. The 6-foot-5, 240-pound lefty will be trying to earn time at first with Troy Johnson, Blaine Crim and Julien Edouard, along with prospect Charlie Condon, in a battle that manager Warren Schaeffer labeled as “completely wide open.”
Chris Forbes, the senior player development director for the Rockies, has become a pro at fending off cancer. Thomas Harding chronicles Forbes’ treatments and outlook on fighting the disease. Forbes has been through it, and this is a great look into his amazing attitude about all of it.
New starter Michael Lorenzen talks about embracing the challenge of pitching at Coors Field, being willing to try new things and not being afraid to fail.
The loss of franchise cornerstone Kirby Puckett was an enormous setback to start the 1996 Minnesota Twins season. But the show must go on, as they say, and whether narrated through Dick-n-Bert on MSC or Herb-n-John over the air, the ‘96 Twins were off and running.
Offense (97 team OPS+)
The three guys Puckett was supposed to pair perfectly with all performed admirably…
Alas, six others batsmen had to come to the plate each game, accounting for the below-average 97 team OPS+.
Pitching (97 team ERA+)
The “Rick Aguilera as a starter” disaster and sub-90 ERA+ campaigns from the likes of Greg Hansell, Eddie Guardado, Jose Parra, & Pat Mahomes Sr gave this team a reputation of being pitching-poor.
But the likes of Brad Radke (114 ERA+), Frankie Rodriguez (101 ERA+), Rich Robertson (100 ERA+), and Scott Aldred (100 ERA+) all held their own in the rotation while Mike Trombley (170 ERA+) & Dan Naulty (110 ERA+) were solid firemen.
Sending Knobby to the All-Star game in Philadelphia
Trading Dave Hollins to Seattle for a Player To Be Named Later—who turned out to be David Ortiz
Drafting Jacque Jones & Chad Allen
Chip Hale’s remarkable 19 pinch hits!
Without the legendary Kirby panache to draw paying customers, attendance sagged to 17,745/game—11th of 14 in the American League. Well, until Kirby Puckett Tribute Night, which predictably packed the house…
All told, the ‘96 Twins played exactly like a team without their leader, finishing a listless 78-84. They avoided the AL Central cellar, but were still a whopping 21.5 GB crown-wearing Cleveland. The team was below-average in the first half (41-45) and below-average in the second half (37-39). They were below-average at home (39-43) and below-average on the road (39-41). Remarkable consistency for such a middling squad.
