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The Seattle Mariners welcome the San Diego Padres to T-Mobile Park tonight for the beginning of a three-game set. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. 

I'm targeting San Diego to grab their fourth straight win against Seattle in my Padres vs. Mariners predictions, with Randy Vasquez on the hill for the visitors. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Friday, May 15. 

Who will win Padres vs Mariners today: Padres moneyline (+120)

The San Diego Padres are starting to turn things around, currently sitting in second place in the National League West. They've compiled a 12-8 record on the road this season, and the Padres swept the Seattle Mariners last month at Petco Park. 

Randy Vasquez pitched in that series, and while he gave up four earned runs in only four frames, the righty has been a mile better away from Petco. Vasquez owns a 1.93 ERA on the road compared to a 3.86 ERA at home. He's only allowed three earned runs across his last two road outings.

Emerson Hancock, meanwhile, gets the ball for Seattle, and he allowed five earned runs last time out against the Chicago White Sox. Hancock gave up only two earned to the Padres last month, but he's surrendered seven earned across his previous three home outings. 

COVERS INTEL: Seattle has lost four of their last six games at T-Mobile Park.

Padres vs Mariners Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 runs (-130)

When these two teams met in April, it was a very low-scoring series. Two of the three games cashed the Under, with just one contest going over seven runs scored combined. Considering the pitching matchup tonight, there is value again in that same play. 

Vasquez continues to show his best when on the road, and he owns a 3.05 ERA overall. Although Hancock can get hit around at times this season, he still has a 3.21 ERA, and the right-hander has allowed more than three earned runs in a start just once in 2026, and that was in his most recent outing. 

Also, we're looking at two very average offenses. The Padres are 24th in runs scored and 30th in average. The Mariners aren't much better, ranking 18th in runs and 24th in team average. Plus, both bullpens are relatively solid. Seattle's pen owns a 3.53 ERA, while San Diego's relievers have compiled an elite 3.03 ERA. 

It won't be a high-scoring series opener at T-Mobile Park. 

Padres vs Mariners odds

• Moneyline: San Diego +122 | Seattle -127
• Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-185) | Seattle -1.5 (+140)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+105) | Under 7.5 (-130)

Padres vs Mariners trend

The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 35 games (+6.35 Units / 14% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Mariners.

How to watch Padres vs Mariners and game info

Padres vs Mariners latest injuries

Padres vs Mariners weather

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The Mookie Betts trade shook the baseball world. A century after dealing away a superstar who helped them win a World Series, the Boston Red Sox did it again. Worse, it seemed as though they didn’t get nearly as much in return as they probably could have for Betts, at that time a four-time All-Star, four-time Gold Glove winner, three-time Silver Slugger, and 2018 American League MVP.

Since then, Betts has gone on to four more All-Star Game appearances and won four more Silver Sluggers, two more Gold Gloves, finished second in National League MVP voting twice, and, most importantly, won three more World Series to add on top of the one he won with Boston in 2018. However, while Betts has continued to pursue a place in Cooperstown (and likely already made enough of a case to be in the Hall of Fame), Alex Verdugo has slowly been pushed out of the major leagues. And in that frame came a brief stint with the Yankees.

Alexander Brady Verdugo
Born: May 15, 1996 (Tucson, AZ)
Yankees Tenure: 2024

Verdugo attended Sahuaro High School in Tucson, where he was drafted in the second round by the Dodgers in 2014. He hit only three home runs in his senior year, but he batted .532 and was a left-handed pitcher for his varsity squad, posting a 2.19 ERA. And after being selected, Verdugo decided to sign with LA rather than play college baseball at Arizona State University, where he had previously committed.

Over the course of three seasons in the minor leagues, Verdugo lit everything up, showcasing why he was considered such an elite prospect. In 2015 alone, he received multiple awards and honors from the Rookie ball Arizona League and was eventually promoted to High-A, hitting .385 in 23 games with the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes in the California League. He hit for the cycle in that span as well and was eventually named the organization’s Minor League Player of the Year.

In 2016, Verdugo began the season with the Tulsa Drillers in Double-A. He made the All-Star team and also played for Mexico’s team in the 2017 World Baseball Classic, as his father Joe is originally from Hermosillo, a city in the northwestern part of the country, which made him eligible. Verdugo was then promoted to Triple-A, where he once again showed his prowess at the plate for the Oklahoma City Dodgers, batting .314 over the season, was named to the Pacific Coast League All-Star team, and was selected to represent the Dodgers at the MLB Futures Game.

Verdugo was promoted on September 1, 2017, and played his first game at the ripe age of 21 against the Padres, going hitless with a walk. He would play 14 more games for the Dodgers before his season ended, as he did not perform well enough in the short span to make the playoff roster.

The young Arizonan played more games for the Dodgers in 2018, but he spent most of his time in Triple-A, where he continued to develop. Overall, he played 37 games in a Dodgers uniform that season, slashing .260/.329/.377, a much-improved mark on all accounts, especially in the batting average category, where he was almost 100 points higher in a larger sample size.

Verdugo officially made the Opening Day roster for Los Angeles at 23 years old, and, once again, saw a jump in production as his playing time jumped as well. He only played 106 games due to an oblique injury (that would also keep him out of the postseason). He played 100 games for the first time in his career, and registered 101 hits in the 106 games he played with 44 RBIs and 49 strikeouts. Verdugo’s 113 OPS+ was more than enough to make him look to be an important piece of the puzzle moving forward, but, as we know, a trade would eventually happen that would change the trajectory of his career.

On February 10, 2020, the Dodgers and Red Sox made the trade official. Verdugo, infielder Jeter Downs, and catcher Connor Wong headed to Boston in exchange for Betts, left-handed pitcher David Price, and cash considerations. Although the names they received weren’t chopped liver at the time, the Red Sox seemingly placed a higher priority on moving Betts’ and Price’s contracts than getting the absolute best possible prospects.

With the 2020 season being cut short due to the COVID-19 pandemic, everyone had to adjust. There were no bodies in the stands, only cardboard cutouts and fake noise pumped in from the sound systems. And in 53 of the 60 games that were played that season by the Red Sox, Verdugo was excellent, batting over .300 for a forgettable Boston team that finished 24-36. But with the Dodgers going on to win the World Series and the Fenway faithful still recovering from the scars of the Betts trade, there were, of course, some hard feelings.

Verdugo continued to produce in a Red Sox uniform, though, despite all of the outside noise. He wasn’t Betts, but he was enough to respectably fill an outfield spot both at the plate and in the field. He had some signature postseason moments for the Sox, too, including a three-RBI game against the Yankees in the 2021 AL Wild Card that was brought to life by a two-run single in the seventh inning that pretty much sealed the game. All of this occurred after he brought the fourth run of the game home for the Red Sox as well.

Verdugo played hero plenty of times in that postseason, specifically, saying to the media:

“I’m not nervous at all. I live for this. It’s still baseball, you know what I mean? The surroundings and fans and the noise outside of it are a lot different, with how much media is on the field before the games and all that, but for me — I just play my game. Baseball is baseball, and let’s not make it more complicated than that.”

Although Boston fell in the ALCS to Houston and missed the next two Octobers, tthe lefty outfielder became a staple on the Fenway grass over the next couple of seasons. In 2022 and 2023, he slashed a combined .272/.326/.413 with an OPS+ of 101, 24 home runs, and 128 RBIs in 294 games. However, 2023 would be the last time he donned a Red Sox uniform, as he was traded to the Yankees on December 5, 2023, as general manager Brian Cashman looked to fill a need both on defense and as a left-handed bat in an almost-strictly right-handed lineup.

However, the plan backfired. The outlook and potential versatility for the Yankees were exciting. And, of course, Yankees fans were thrilled when Verdugo hit a home run on the first pitch he saw back at Fenway following the trade.

Over the course of the season though, Verdugo dealt with lots of ups and downs. He began the season extremely slow at the plate, saying after the season in a quasi-post mortem that he was far too aggressive than he would’ve liked to be, and that he got away from his game. And not only that, but he also had continued issues developing with his hands. He was experiencing skin issues and pain in his hands, a problem that had been continuous since the 2021 season, and that led him to receive an allergy test over the All-Star break. The results showed that he had an allergy to materials in his gloves.

All in all, Verdugo still played in 149 games for the Yankees and slashed .233/.291/.356, and the Yankees were able to make the World Series against Betts and the Dodgers. His defense was good (as Octoberproved), but expectations were higher than an 84 OPS+, especially since he had at least had a league-average bat for Boston in his final two seasons at Fenway. Ultimately, Betts came out on top again, and Verdugo’s performance over the year wasn’t remotely enough to move the needle. It didn’t help that he made the last out of the season too, striking out against Walker Buehler to end the Game 5 collapse in the Bronx. Verdugo entered free agency shortly afterward, and there was little interest in a reunion from the fanbase.

Verdugo ended up joining the Braves in March 2025, where he was sent to Triple-A to get in shape after missing spring training due to his late signing. He would ultimately play 56 games for the Braves before being designated for assignment and released. Verdugo did at least register an impressive four-hit night in his debut, which helped the Braves defeat the Twins 4-3.

After being released, Verdugo was signed to a minor league deal by the San Diego Padres but was eventually released before requiring a season-ending surgery. In fact, that news just broke two days ago. This is unfortunate timing for Verdugo just before turning 30, but that is where the birthday lad’s baseball story ends — for now, anyway.

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

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The Atlanta Braves hope to keep rolling on Friday night when they open a three-game set with the Boston Red Sox.

The Braves have won four of their last five, and their pitching staff has allowed just nine runs in the last five games.

My Red Sox vs. Braves predictions and MLB picks for Friday, May 15 explain why Spencer Strider will keep that trend going.

Who will win Red Sox vs Braves today: Braves (-147)

Spencer Strider overcame a rocky first start back with a dominant performance against the Dodgers last week.

One noticeable change since his return is an increased usage of his curveball, which has induced an eye-popping 81% whiff rate.

The Boston Red Sox have the 10th-highest strikeout rate and fifth-lowest ISO of any club the past two weeks. They’ve also scored just six runs in four games.

Connelly Early has an ERA that is 1.53 runs below expected. He ranks in the 12th percentile in barrel rate and faces an Atlanta offense ranked seventh in SLG at home vs LHP this year.

COVERS INTEL:Boston’s lineup is making poor contact, posting the second-highest ground ball rate (49.3% ) and pull rate (47%) in the majors over the past two weeks.

Red Sox vs Braves Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-125)

The Atlanta Braves are still hitting the ball well of late, but the run production is down.

Having the seventh-highest strikeout rate and fourth-lowest walk rate the past two weeks probably doesn’t help.

That’s a main driver behind a run of seven Unders in the last eight games for Atlanta, but it’s not the main reason I’m backing that trend to continue.

Boston’s been baseball’s worst team the past week at bringing in runs, posting a .136 BABIP and a .000 ISO with RISP. That’s led to an abysmal 57 wRC+.

That’s why I’m backing Boston’s seventh straight game under the number.

Red Sox vs Braves odds

• Moneyline: Boston +138 | Atlanta -144
• Run line: Boston +1.5 (-150) | Atlanta -1.5 (+138)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+117) | Under 8.5 (-122)

Red Sox vs Braves trend

The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.60 Units / 34% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Braves.

How to watch Red Sox vs Braves and game info

Red Sox vs Braves latest injuries

Red Sox vs Braves weather

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Yeah, I know. Regular season series are only three games long and sometimes four but this is one where you have to take the previous three games into a little consideration once we eventually get into talking about these three games. That’s because the Braves were entering this series against the Chicago Cubs hot off the heels of a big (and rare) series win at Dodger Stadium.

Granted, the Cubs were limping a bit coming into Cobb County after the Rangers blanked them for the final two games of their series in Arlington but at the same time, nobody wants to be the team that a cold team suddenly wakes up for. Fortunately, the Braves were able to extend Chicago’s misery a bit instead of serving as a bounce-back opportunity. Atlanta has now made a big time statement against the depending World Series champions and the current NL Central leaders and now it’s time to take a look at how it all went down.

Tuesday, May 12

Braves 5, Cubs 2

This game started out with Grant Holmes seemingly cruising on his way to a quality start. Then the fourth ining rolled around and Holmes hit the wall hard. He gave up a one-out homer to Alex Bregman to tie the game up at one run apiece and then he walked the bases loaded immediately afterwards. It was honestly a bit of a miracle that Holmes only ended up surrendering two runs in this inning, with the other run coming as a result of a double play.

It also ended up being huge that Holmes only gave up those two runs because that was the complete sum of offense the Cubs would end up mustering up for the entire game. The Braves didn’t wait too long to respond, as they eventually put up a four-spot in the fifth inning. Austin Riley tied things up with a long ball to tie it up again and then Mike Yastrzemski (who put the Braves on the board earlier on) hit his first dinger of the season in order to put the Braves ahead by two. Matt Olson added on an RBI single of his own and just like that, the Braves were up 5-2.

Thanks to Didier Fuentes, Dylan Lee and Raisel Iglesias all being unhittable (with Fuentes being especially impressive in his three innings of work), this ended up being a very frustrating night for the Cubs and an exciting return home for the Braves in the series opener.

Wednesday, May 13

Braves 4, Cubs 1

Shota Imanaga was impressive for the Cubs in this one, as he ended up going seven innings and striking out six batters for Chicago in this one. He did give up two runs though and one of those runs on Imanaga’s line ended up being the winning run for the Braves. The first run for the Braves came on a solo shot from Drake Baldwin that he just muscled over the fence and into the bullpen in right-center for a solo shot that put the Braves into the lead.

Eventually, the game was deadlocked at one run apiece after the sole run that JR Ritchie gave up during his 4.1 innings of work was standing up for the Cubs. Imanaga went back out there for the eighth and sure enough, Michael Harris II was able to get on base with a single to lead off the eighth and force the Cubs to go to their bullpen. Phil Maton got the ball and was immediately greeted rudely by Ha-Seong Kim joining Harris on the basepaths with a single. Mike Yastrzemski then came up huge for the second time in this series with an RBI double that broke the deadlock.

Despite Ha-Seong Kim getting thrown out by a mile at home on Yaz’s double, the opportunity to add on did not go by the wayside. That’s because Mauricio Dubón ended up cracking a dinger of his own to make it 4-1. By that time, Raisel Iglesias was called upon for a second consecutive night of duty and for the second night in a row, he closed things out in order to help give the Braves a series win in front of an electric crowd.

Thursday, May 14

Cubs 2, Braves 0

Things weren’t so electric for the Braves in this one. This was another case of Chris Sale pitching well but not well enough to win because the offense got locked up for the second Sale start in a row. You are not going to sit here and see me complain about another six strong innings from Sale, where he only gave up one run while striking out eight batters as well. This was a perfectly fine night on the mound for Sale and if Atlanta could’ve mustered up anything at the plate, we may have been talking about a sweep right now. Sale was in such a zone that he even forgot how many outs there were at one point!

Instead, Ben Brown and Chicago’s bullpen had redemption on the mind. Brown was extremely effective for the four innings that he pitched and while the Braves did get one hit each on Hoby Milner, Phil Maton, old friend Jacob Webb and Daniel Palencia, those lone hits were all they were able to get. There would be no late rallies or dramatics in this one as the Braves ended up having to settle for the series win after getting shut out for only the second time this season — both times at home, no less.

So while I’d imagine that everybody was hoping and wishing for a sweep after the way the first two games went, I don’t think that anybody is going to complain about a series win — especially considering that it’s two series wins in a row against some of the best that the National League has to offer after a disappointing series loss in Seattle. The Braves are still riding high at the moment and they’re flying higher than any other team in baseball at the moment. The second win of this series pushed the Braves to 30 wins on the year and they’ll be the only team in baseball heading into Rivalry Weekend™ with 30 wins to their name so far. That’s pretty good!

Even with the loss on Thursday, the Braves have to feel good about how their pitching staff performed against this potent Cubs lineup. Going three games against this squad and only giving up four runs (including a one-hitter in the series opener) is very impressive. It’s a crying shame that the best starting performance in this series (Chris Sale’s six innings) ended up being in vain but outside of that, you can’t complain too much about what the Braves got from Grant Holmes and JR Ritchie during this series as well.

The bullpen was also very reliable during these three games as well, which is pretty encouraging to see. Obviously, we’ll have to see the trio of Spencer Strider, Bryce Elder and Grant Holmes (again? maybe?) hopefully go deep against the Red Sox in order to help give the bullpen a bit of a break but for now, you can’t complain about how the pitching has been so far when it comes to the entire staff.

It was also nice to see Mike Yastrzemski start to show some signs of life at the plate and Austin Riley has started to look okay as well. If they can join in on the fun then it’ll certainly be exciting to see going forward and it could also mean good things for the upcoming series as well. The Red Sox may be tricky to deal with due to their pitching but if Atlanta’s lineup can continue to rake and deliver some timely hitting like they have on a somewhat regular basis so far this series then they’ll be fine going forward. Atlanta has been the best team in baseball so far and hopefully we’ll see it continue as they pass the first quarter pole of the season and approach the traditional Summer sign post of Memorial Day soon.

To say Kyle Manzardo got off to a slow start might be considered by many to be a bit of an understatement, but once the calendar flipped to May, the young slugging first baseman has really started to turn things around. Today we’re going to take a look and see if we can figure out how he’s done that.

Kyle Manzardo clobbered 27 home runs and hit for a .768 OPS and a 113 wRC+ in his first full season of Major League Baseball in 2025. With expectations fairly high coming into 2026, it was a shock to many to see him get off to such a slow start. Through his first 28 games to start the season in March and April, he had just 1 home run, a .512 OPS, and a 50 wRC+. But so far in May in just 11 games, he’s already matched his extra base hit total from March and April (3), his OPS is over .200 higher at .740, and he has a 111 wRC+. So what changed?

Well Manzo didn’t get off to a great start from a luck perspective. Through most of March and April, he was one of the unluckiest hitters in Major League Baseball by wOBA – xwOBA difference. In fact, as of writing, he still is the 19th most unlucky hitter in the sport. This is a fairly large part of why the numbers look so bad for him, but if we dig a little deeper we can see some of the changes he’s made that have helped him at the plate the last couple of weeks.

It doesn’t seem like Manzo went deep into the hitting tank, making adjustments to his stance or swing. His depth in the box, distance off the plate, and distance between his feet are all pretty much the same if we go by the Savant measurements. See images below:

Left image is March 26th through April 30th. Right image is May 1st though 10th

So the next thing we’d want to look at is “has the approach changed?” This is where we can see some changes. His Chase % is down from 29.7 in March and April to 26.8 so far in May. Not a massive change, but definitely worth mentioning. The next numbers to look at are his Zone Swing % and his In Zone Contact % (the percentage of pitches in the Zone he’s swung at, and the % of those swings that resulted in contact for the hitter respectively). This is where things get interesting. Manzo is actually swinging at fewer pitches in the strike zone so far in May. The percentage is down from 66.8 to 61.9, but his In Zone Contact % has jumped up drastically from 79 to 97.6! What does this tell us? These three numbers combined show a hitter that is being far more selective of the pitches they want to swing at, and then not missing when they get the pitch they want.

What are the results? Manzo’s Hard-Hit % (the percentage of batted balls with exit velocities over 95 mph) has skyrocketed from 26.4 to a staggering 68 in May, his Barrel % is up from 7.5 to 20, his average exit velo is up 5mph from 87.7 to 92.7, and he’s hitting the Launch Angle Sweet Spot (defined by stat cast as between 8 and 32 degrees) 48% of the time. The patience has rewarded him as well, lowering his K% from 35.1 to just 19.4, and increasing his BBB% from 8.2 to 11.1. These are all great signs. The Barrel % and Hard-Hit % would be top 10 and number 1 in the league respectively if they held, so those rates may not be sustainable for the young slugger, but it’s certainly cause for excitement.

What do we want to watch going forward? The most important thing is going to be continuing to manage the Chase %. If he can continue to keep that Chase % down even just those few % points and hunt the pitches he can damage, the rest of 2026 will go very well for the first baseman. 

It’s worth mentioning as well that Kyle Manzardo came into 2026 with less than 200 MLB games under his belt and only 687 PAs. There’s a lot of adjusting that still goes into a young player at this stage at the MLB level, and it’s very clear he also put a lot of work this offseason into improving his defense. Hopefully, going forward, we will continue to see this version of Kyle Manzardo. If we do, José will have some extra much needed protection in the lineup.