Red Sox stock up, stock down: Giolito shining as trade deadline looms originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
The Boston Red Sox are entering the most important stretch of their 2025 season.
At 42-44, the Red Sox enter July seven games back in the American League East standings and three back in the AL Wild Card race. With the MLB trade deadline just 30 days away, Boston must give chief baseball officer Craig Breslow a good reason to invest in the team for a postseason run rather than part ways with key players.
If Breslow decides to sell, he could trade multiple players whose stocks have surged over the last month. Here’s our Red Sox Stock Up, Stock Down after an eventful June:
Stock Up
Ceddanne Rafaela, OF
From clutch hitting to his usual Platinum Glove-caliber defense, Rafaela has done it all for the Red Sox over the last month. The 24-year-old slashed .283/.327/.543 with a team-leading six homers and 15 RBI in June.
While swing-and-miss remains a big part of Rafaela’s game, the former top prospect has cut his strikeout percentage down from 26.4 last season to 20.1 so far this year. He has made noticeable strides at the plate while making plays like this look routine in center field:
Similar to what we used to say about Jackie Bradley Jr., Rafaela’s defense is so good that anything the Red Sox can get from him at the plate is a bonus. Lately, he has been among the team’s best players in all facets of the game.
Trevor Story, SS
Story has found his groove after enduring perhaps the worst stretch of his career in May. The veteran shortstop was second on the team with five homers and posted a .827 OPS in June.
The Red Sox couldn’t have gone on much longer with the Story they got in May, so his bounce-back is a relief. The question now is whether Story will stick at shortstop with rookie Marcelo Mayer at second base when third baseman Alex Bregman returns from injury, or if he’ll move to second with Mayer taking his place.
Lucas Giolito, RHP
Giolito has been nothing short of elite over his last four starts, allowing just two runs over 25 innings of work. All four were quality starts, including a gem in Seattle on June 16 when he tallied 10 strikeouts.
The Red Sox desperately needed one of their starters to step up as the No. 2 in the rotation behind Garrett Crochet, and it looks like Giolito has assumed that role. But with the MLB trade deadline looming, it’s fair to wonder how long that will last.
Giolito’s trade value has skyrocketed over the last month, so if Boston’s season continues to spiral, the club could move him to a pitching-needy contender for a decent haul. The soon-to-be 31-year-old is signed through 2025 with a team option for the 2026 campaign. It’s a $14 million team option if Giolito pitches fewer than 140 innings and a $19 million mutual option if he exceeds that number.
Brayan Bello, RHP
Bello has joined Giolito in stepping his game up since the calendar flipped to June. The Dominican right-hander posted a 2.87 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP, 23 strikeouts and 10 walks over five starts (31.1 innings).
Like Giolito, Bello has made four consecutive quality starts. That’s exactly what the Red Sox have needed from the 26-year-old, who arrived in the majors as a highly-touted prospect in 2022.
Aroldis Chapman, LHP
Chapman has been virtually unhittable since signing his one-year deal with Boston in the offseason. The 37-year-old southpaw has a 1.32 ERA and 0.79 WHIP over 37 appearances. Most importantly, he has cut his walk rate from 5.7 to 2.6 per nine innings.
Contending clubs are usually willing to pay a hefty price for elite bullpen options around the trade deadline, so Chapman is a prime candidate to be moved if the Red Sox’ season continues to spiral.
Abraham Toro and Romy Gonzalez, 1B
Say what you will about the Red Sox’ first base situation, but Toro and Gonzalez have done an admirable job holding down the fort in Triston Casas’ absence.
Toro has greatly outperformed expectations with by far his most productive big-league season at the plate so far. His defensive versatility has also paid off with a solid glove at first and third base.
Gonzalez continues to mash, especially against left-handed pitching. He posted a .926 OPS with three homers in 18 games, including this mammoth blast against Toronto:
The Red Sox could still use a more stable first base option if they buy at the trade deadline, but the Toro/Gonzalez platoon has worked like a charm since Casas went down.
Stock Down
Jarren Duran, OF
It has been a disappointing season for the 2024 All-Star Game MVP. While Duran has shown flashes of his elite potential with an MLB-leading nine triples and 20 doubles, he’s been a league-average hitter who has taken a significant step back defensively in left field.
With the deadline approaching, it’s fair to wonder whether Duran is the odd man out in Boston’s crowded outfield. The 28-year-old still has plenty of value after strong 2023 and 2024 seasons, plus he’s under team control until 2029. Don’t be surprised if this month is Duran’s last in a Red Sox uniform.
Walker Buehler, RHP
Buehler is scheduled to make his next start, but if that one doesn’t go well, he may not last another day in the Red Sox rotation. The veteran right-hander has a 6.45 ERA on the season and an 11.07 ERA in June. He racked up as many walks (17) as strikeouts over the last month.
Considering how Buehler performed in October last year with the Los Angeles Dodgers, clubs may still be willing to give something of value for him around the deadline. That said, his stock has undoubtedly plummeted as of late.
Craig Breslow, CBO
Breslow isn’t losing games on the field, but that doesn’t make him safe from the Stock Down category. Boston’s second-year chief baseball officer took a massive PR hit in June after he traded veteran slugger Rafael Devers to the San Francisco Giants in a shocking move. He poured more fuel on the fire by stating he believed the Red Sox could win more games without Devers, only for the club to lose six consecutive games and four straight series.
Meanwhile, multiple reports shed light on the dysfunction within the Breslow-led front office. One report even revealed the Red Sox used AI for several rounds of job interviews with a baseball operations candidate.
June was a month for Breslow to forget. Will he make up for it before the July 31 trade deadline?