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St. Louis Cardinals starter Andre Pallante struggled mightily in 2025, and he doesn't get a soft landing to open his 2026 campaign against the New York Mets tonight.

The right-hander's lack of swing-and-miss stuff headlines my Mets vs. Cardinals predictions.

See why the Mets can run up the score in St. Louis with my MLB picks on Tuesday, March 31.

Mets vs Cardinals predictions

Mets vs Cardinals best bet: Mets team total Over 4.5 (-113)

Among qualified starters, St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Andre Pallante had the fourth-highest ERA in 2025 (5.36). His peripherals weren't much better, either, as he ranked in the 25th percentile in whiff rate, the 17th in chase percentage, and all the way down in the fourth in strikeout rate.

Simply put, he doesn't miss bats, and teams tend to plate runs when he's on the mound.

This bodes well for a New York Mets offense that boasts a ton of typically strong contact hitters. Ignore Bo Bichette's 40% strikeout rate in his first four games; he has a career K% of just 19.5. Likewise, sluggers Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto have K-rates below 18% for their careers.

Expect heavy traffic on the basepaths early and often as the Mets clear this total with ease.

COVERS INTEL: Cardinals relievers have posted a 7.94 ERA with a 13.6% K-rate and 12.5% BB-rate, so the damage might not stop even after Pallante is yanked.

Mets vs Cardinals same-game parlay (SGP)

Fading Pallante is the name of the game, and I'm targeting the top of the Mets' lineup to do the bulk of the heavy lifting. 

Pallante had similar numbers against right-handed and left-handed bats, so we can trust the historic numbers of this trio to make contact on his offerings.

Lindor has batted leadoff in all four games, and he's scored in three of them, including the last two. Soto only has one extra-base hit so far, but he's batting .353, and the matchup is extremely favorable. 

Bichette may seem like the wild card, given how Mets fans booed him out of Citi Field, but he's going to get to the dish with traffic on the bases, and his longstanding contact numbers mean more than one series of struggles.  

Mets vs Cardinals SGP

• Francisco Lindor 1+ runs
• Juan Soto 2+ total bases
• Bo Bichette 2+ hits + runs + RBI

Mets vs Cardinals home run pick: Carson Benge (+870)

I'm not taking rookie Carson Benge to hit a home run because he's one of only two Mets to go deep this season, but because he's hitting the tar out of the ball, with an average exit velocity ranking in the Top 3 per cent.

That's a small sample, but it aligns with his minor-league track record, where Benge hit 15 homers across three levels last season while posting a 150 wRC+. The +870 price tag pushes us over the top in a matchup against a pitching staff that struggles to limit contact.

Mets vs Cardinals odds

• Moneyline: New York -158 | St. Louis +134
• Run line: New York -1.5 (+106) | St. Louis +1.5 (-128)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)

Mets vs Cardinals trend

New York has hit the F5 team total Over in 63 of its last 111 games (+9.35 Units / 7% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Cardinals.

How to watch Mets vs Cardinals and game info

Mets vs Cardinals latest injuries

Mets vs Cardinals weather

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It’s really difficult to make any concrete assertions about a baseball team after only four games. Sure, these games make the term “lethargic” look positively energetic, but even in the most negative point of view, there isn’t really much we can tell about this team yet. The only thing these games have done is reinforced preconceived notions that clouded judgement in the first place.

Instead, we can try and see if there are any trends beginning to take shape. Ideas maybe we had before the season even began that maybe there is a shred of data that can be looked at to see if something is there. Here are a few to maybe keep an eye on as the season progresses, particularly in these early weeks.

Otto Kemp: left fielder?

Sunday’s game was a demonstration that maybe the team’s belief in Kemp as a viable option as one of the platoon partners for the outfield was a bit ambitious in the first place. 2025 showed several examples of why this idea was misguided in the first place, yet the team continued to assert that Kemp would be fine.

There is the likelihood that the team will continue to put him out in left field in a lefthanded pitcher is on the mound. They want to have the platoon advantage there and they believe their best option is to have Kemp, which is odd considering they have Dylan Moore on the roster, a player that has actually played left field in the past. If he cannot play the position, one has to wonder about Kemp’s place on the roster.

Bryce Harper

There is no reason to belabor the point about elite/not elite that was beaten in the offseason. It’s tiresome and boring. Instead, let’s re-shape the question. What would make Dave Dombrowski even say that?

Pitchers are going to try and see what Harper still has. One might think that they’ll try and get him to chase since that was one of his issues with his season last year. We only have a sample of 71 pitches thrown to him, so as you can imagine, the heat map is all over the place.

This doesn’t really tell us much about anything, so instead, how are pitchers trying to approach him? We’ve seen a steady decline in pitchers throwing him fastballs since that is where he does a lot of damage. The rise in breaking ball usage is continuing, even if it, again, is just 71 pitches in total.

Yet this is worth watching as the season progresses. Harper’s bat speed so far suggests that there hasn’t been a falloff there, but the steady diet of breaking pitches that are going out of the zone are going continue from the looks of it. How he fares will likely determine the next chapter of his career.

Rob Thomson’s decision making

The Opening Day usage of Kyle Backhus was fine in theory. The team was up five runs, they only needed three outs and Backhus’ funk was probably something that the Rangers hadn’t seen much of. He wasn’t good, thus forcing Jhoan Duran into the game to give the Phillies their only win of the season thus far. In game two, Jacob deGrom was scratched from the lineup, a left handed reliever taking his place, yet Thomson left in his usual platoon players in Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh. The team was no-hit through several innings afterwards. Getting Stott and Marsh plate appearances against southpaws is fine, particularly if one hopes for their improvement against them, yet it was another curious decision.

Justin Crawford sitting on Monday evening was interesting as well, giving fodder to something else to watch as the season goes on: what goes behind the decisions Thomson regularly makes? Early in the season, he has shown a willingness to sit players often coming out of spring training as the baseball version of load management. That would help explain some of the lineup decisions made early on, but as the season keeps going, when do the lefties (Stott, Marsh and Crawford) sit? What about the bullpen usage patterns? With a trip to Colorado looming, it made some sense to let Taijuan Walker eat some innings Monday, preserving as many arms as possible, but again, what about the situational usage patterns? What will end up being the bullpen pecking order?

As stated before, it’s still only four games. There is plenty of baseball to go, likely most of it good baseball. These are only a few things to watch as the season goes forward, but they are still rather significant things to track.

It’s safe to say we are on the roller coaster ride that is the baseball season. This early season has been filled with ups and downs. It’s fun that no matter how baseball changes, how many ways we can analyze it, it’s still a lot the same game. Oh sure, if this were 50 or 60 years ago, Cubs starter Edward Cabrera would probably have thrown (at least) another inning or two. After all, when your starter has allowed just one hit and one walk over six, you keep running him out there.

Just for kicks, I went all of the way back to 1969 to see what Ferguson Jenkins did on Opening Day. It was a perfect compare and contrast to the modern game. Fergie threw only eight innings on Opening Day that year. Was it great restraint by the famed Leo Durocher? Well, not really. Fergie allowed five runs in eight innings of work (he didn’t walk anyone, though). Also, let’s be clear. Fergie started the ninth, pitching with a three-run lead. He allowed two singles and a three-run homer. That finished Fergie’s day after throwing 109 pitches. The Cubs did score two in the bottom of the 11th (after allowing one in the top) to walk it off.

The game changes. Teams don’t rely on starters anywhere near as much as we used to. They hope that more pitches can be thrown at or near max effort. They hope that more pitchers, when effective, can pitch much longer into their careers. We know that first thing is happening more and more. We think maybe that second thing is happening. Less is being asked of starters. And yet, little is more valuable than a strong start from your starter. The Cubs have had two quality starts in the young season and they’ve won both games. They lost the other two.

Eleven teams came through the first weekend of the season without a quality start. Those teams combined for a record of 12-24. That record is buoyed by the Brewers who, annoyingly, swept their opening series without a single QS. Of course, the White Sox didn’t have one either in that series. So I guess that was a wash, at least for starting pitching. The Nationals didn’t have one over the weekend either, but did beat the Phillies in Philadelphia, 13-2. Clearly, no one has told the Nationals that they are supposed to be God-awful. For that matter, no one has told Joey Wiemer that he’s not going to be the MVP. Who doesn’t love an early season line of .800/.846/1.600? I think that’s maybe some kind of record pace.

I’ll be a broken record here early. Because it’s early. Very little of this matters much. It would definitely matter a lot if Cade Horton and Edward Cabrera were elite. We have reason to believe one is and hope that the other can be. It would definitely matter a lot if Matthew Boyd and Shōta Imanaga were bad. I think we fear that one is and expect the other to be at least decent, coming off of an All-Star season. Drawing conclusions in April is a fool’s errand. Doing so in March is a waste of time.

The Cubs got a good pitching performance and the bats shined. More of both, please. And hey, even when one has an off night, there isn’t any particular rule that says both have to be off. I like to think of baseball having four quadrants. These two wins are in the best quadrant which is good pitching/good hitting. So let’s hope that those other two quadrants (good hitting/poor pitching, and poor hitting/good pitching) eke out some wins too. The best teams can win games in all three of the better quadrants (it’s an unusual scenario to win a game with poor/poor performance). And let’s hope the Cubs spend an awful lot of time in that best quadrant. They’ve got a lot of winning to do and a lot of working out who the best 26 are. And there are only 158 games left to get all of that done.

Three Stars:

1. Edward Cabrera. Six innings, five strikeouts and just one walk. No runs and only a single hit. I only had one eye on it at the time, but I didn’t think the one hit looked particularly crushed.
2. Ian Happ had a solo homer and a walk. This is the third straight game he’s homered in, matching a career high. It very well could have been four had the wind not knocked down a crushed ball in the opener.
3. On the third game in three days, with two more to follow, Colin Rea got nine outs with a huge lead. In the modern game, you use a ton of pen. In early games, that’s particularly exacerbated. With Jameson Taillon and Matthew Boyd to follow, who knows what you get? Giving everyone else a night off allows you to go much more aggressively at the next two. The Cubs high-leverage relievers have seen no leverage at all yet.
4. Honorable mention to the whole offense. Nine hits, seven walks. Angels starter Ryan Johnson was really shaky and the Cubs had a very patient approach to that. Happ only stands out for the homer. Otherwise, the Cubs offense just showed a steady, relentless approach and wore the Angels down. And their troubles were complicated by the early conditions at Wrigley Field on a pop fly that almost certainly should have been caught and led to two runs.

Game 4, March 30: Cubs 7, Angels 2 (2-2)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Edward Cabrera (.174). 6 IP, 19 BF, H, BB, 0 ER, 5 K (W 1-0)
• Hero: Carson Kelly (.122). 1-4, 2 RBI
• Sidekick: Ian Happ (.075). 1-4, BB, HR, RBI, 2 R

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Alex Bregman (-.039). 1-4, BB
• Goat: Michael Conforto (-.014). 0-2
• Kid: Matt Shaw (.001). 1-2

WPA Play of the Game: Carson Kelly batted with runners on first and second and two outs in the first, the Cubs up one. He skied one into shallow center. The Angels failed to make a play on the ball and Pete Crow-Armstrong motored around from first to make this into a two-run single. (.155)

*Angels Play of the Game: Ryan Johnson faced Alex Bregman with a runner on first and no outs in the first inning, the game scoreless. He got Bregman to pop out for the first out. (.035)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Yesterday’s Winner: Alex Bregman received 124 of 148 votes.

Up Next: Game two of the three-game set with the Angels. Jameson Taillon makes his season debut. Last year he was 11-7 with a 3.68 ERA in 23 starts. Taillon’s numbers as a Cub do not in any way justify the negative perception of his value. In his age-34 season last year, he dealt with some injuries but was pretty effective when healthy. At this point in his career, it’s hard to imagine he can’t be a fifth starter who produces more good starts than bad and provides value to this team.

The Angels start 27-year-old José Soriano. Soriano started Opening Day this year for the Angels. He threw six scoreless and struck out seven in Houston. He’s pitched in parts of three seasons for the Angels previously, having an 18-21 record and a 3.82 ERA across 92 appearances (52 starts). Could the 27-year-old Dominican product be finding himself? We shall see. He didn’t face the Cubs last year. He threw five unremarkable innings against them in July 2024. Michael Busch took him deep and Miguel Amaya had a pair of hits. Plan to see Miguel back in the lineup to try to continue his hot start at the plate.

How about the first back-to-back wins of the season?

Opening Day of Major League Baseball is one of the best days on the sports calendar. Its even more sweet when you can turn it on to take your eyes away from the brutal sweep that was happening in Oxford this past weekend.

Nonetheless, when you have a program that has succeeded at the level coach Mike Bianco’s has over the years, you are likely to have some MLB talent come through (or skip by — looking at you Roman Anthony). So let’s see where our former Rebels landed at the start of the 2026 MLB season.

MLB/40 Man Roster

Gunnar Hoglund – A’s, IL-15

Ryan Rolison – Chicago Cubs, 40 Man (AAA Iowa)

James McArthur – Kansas City Royals, IL-15

Drew Pomeranz- Los Angeles Angels

Nick Fortes – Tampa Bay Rays

Minor League Roster

Tim Elko – IL, ACL recovery (CWS)

Jacob Gonzalez – AAA Charlotte (CWS)

Calvin Harris – AA Birmingham (CWS)

Drew McDaniel – High A Winston-Salem (CWS)

JT Quinn – High A Frederick (BAL)

Dylan DeLucia – AA Akron (CLE)

Doug Nikhazy – AAA Columbus (CLE)

Luke Hill – Low A Hill City (CLE)

Sam Tookoian – High A Tri-City (LAA)

Houston Roth – AAA Tacoma (SEA)

Cooper Johnson – AAA Round Rock (TEX)

Connor Spencer – High A South Bend (CHC)

Kemp Alderman – AAA Jacksonville (MIA)

Grae Kessinger – AAA Syracuse (NYM)

Jacob Waguespack – AAA Nashville (MIL)

Derek Diamond – AA Altoona (PIT)

Josh Mallitz – AA San Antonio (SD)

Mason Morris – Low A Daytona (CIN)

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The Cleveland Guardians take on the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight in Chavez Ravine for the second game of a three-game series.

Shohei Ohtani makes his season debut on the mound for the hosts, while Tanner Bibee makes his second start of the season for the visitors.

See why my Guardians vs. Dodgers predictions and MLB picks are targeting the Under on Tuesday, March 31.

Guardians vs Dodgers predictions

Guardians vs Dodgers best bet: Under 8 (-105)

Shohei Ohtani’s arsenal of pitches is downright filthy (115 Stuff+), and he was dominant at home a season ago (.151 BAA, 1.71 ERA). 

There’s a fully stocked bullpen behind him after Sunday’s off day and yesterday’s three-pitcher outing, so they should limit a Cleveland Guardians lineup with poor numbers (.279 wOBA, 79 wRC+). 

Tanner Bibee (104 Stuff+) has been a dependable arm, recording an xERA below 3.75 in each of the last three seasons (87 starts). The weather favors these two strong starting pitchers, as there’ll be rain in Southern California.

COVERS INTEL: Tanner Bibee ranked in the 67th percentile or better in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, walk rate, and hard-hit rate. Shohei Ohtani didn’t have enough innings to qualify, but he’d be in the 90th percentile or above in every category.

Guardians vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)

Ohtani was positively electric on the mound a year ago, and effectiveness (areer 3.00 ERA, 3.18 FIP) hasn’t been the issue — it’s all about health. 

He’s healthy now, striking out 11 batters in his most recent exhibition outing. That gives the Los Angeles Dodgers a leg up on the mound, and they have one at the plate, too. 

You could argue the bullpen is a wash, but the Dodgers have been elite in relief (2.19 FIP) and have all their best arms rested, whereas Cleveland closer Cade Smith threw 29 pitches in Monday’s series opener.

Guardians vs Dodgers SGP

• Under 8
• Dodgers -1.5

Guardians vs Dodgers home run pick: Max Muncy (+330)

Bibee’s primary flaw is the home run ball. He allowed 1.33 HR/9 a year ago despite a 10-point uptick in groundball rate, so it’s definitely the L.A. side I want to target with a home run prop.

Max Muncy posted 16 of his 19 home runs off right-handed pitchers a season ago, tagging them for a 157 wRC+ with substantial power (.247 ISO).

He hits Bibee’s three-pitch mix against lefties (primarily four-seamers and change-ups with a dash of cutters) well, with decreased whiff rates and increased effectiveness against all three offerings.

Guardians vs Dodgers odds

• Moneyline: Cleveland +220 | Los Angeles -270
• Run line: Cleveland +1.5 (-105) | Los Angeles -1.5 (-115)
• Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8

Guardians vs Dodgers trend

The Guardians have cashed the Under in 39 of their last 60 road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Dodgers.

How to watch Guardians vs Dodgers and game info

Guardians vs Dodgers latest injuries

Guardians vs Dodgers weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.