Ladybug Robinson

Ladybugs don’t seem particularly important. They’re tiny, harmless-looking beetles that spend their days crawling over leaves. Yet remove them from an ecosystem and things could fall apart. While a ladybug has never snagged an offensive rebound (that we know of), thinking about them made me think about someone who has.

Ladybugs are valuable precisely because they do unglamorous work. Like a ladybug, Mitchell Robinson is productive in a specific way. A single ladybug can eat up to 5,000 aphids. With the Knicks, Mitch gobbled up 3,164 rebounds. Unfortunately, ladybugs live 1-3 years in the wild (though many adults only survive a few months). Also unfortunate: we were lucky if Mitch made 1-3 of his free throws.

This off-season, Robinson signed a 3-year, $47.4 million contract with the Boston Celtics. Allegedly, the deal outpaced what the Knicks offered by about $10 mil per year. On the surface, it’s a classic money grab—although less of a grab than Isaiah Hartenstein’s fistful of dollars when he left New York for tornado alley.

Fans have griped about the situation. The contradictions are rampant. We wanted Mitch to stay and get paid. We spent years complaining about his injuries and lack of availability. We expect the front office to be shrewd, then we bellyache about not breaching the second apron on his behalf. 

We had plenty of time to develop affection for the seven-foot Cajun. He wore a Knicks uniform for approximately 29% of his life. That’s a big chunk of existence, and it’s poignant to remember he essentially grew up as a Knick.

Since getting drafted 36th in 2018, he had been the team’s longest tenured player before this departure. He was a young 20 years old when he debuted at Madison Square Garden, playing for a David Fizdale-coached team that finished 17-65. 

During those dark days, the promise of Robinson’s raw talent was a lonely, flickering candle. He appeared on the All-Rookie team. And he is funny, always reliable for a ridiculous soundbyte. Remember that time he told Fred Katz about his D Train? Classic Mitch.

Ladybugs are fragile and—you know I’m gonna say it, just relax—so is Mitch. There’s no debating that the dude is strong as an ox. He also missed about 40% of his regular season games. Out of 656 regular season contests, he played 397. Why? His medical chart reads like the index of Gray’s Anatomy: ankles, feet, hand, thumb, pinky, hamstrings, illnesses, surgeries. The guy’s had roughly as many injuries as Johnny Knoxville without being shot out of a cannon (that we know of). Perhaps you can guess why Leon Rose & Co. were reluctant to match the offer Brad Stevens laid out?

Beyond the money, his leaving is probably about pride, too. Before Karl-Anthony Towns arrived, Mitch was the starting center for the Knicks. In Boston, he’ll start again. That must flatter the ego. The question is, how many minutes per game can he give the Celts? 

As a reserve last season, Mitch averaged under 20 minutes of play over 60 regular season contests. He fell to 13.9 minutes per game in the 2026 playoffs, across 18 games. His career high for games played in a season is 66 (his rookie year) and he’ll celebrate his 29th birthday in April. Sports medicine has made remarkable strides, but it has yet to cure aging.

The nostalgic narrative about Robinson will benefit from him leaving with a championship ring. Good feelings about the Knicks are flowing through the five boroughs and out across the land. Everyone wants to keep the band together. If he had departed after an early playoff exit, the sentiment would surely have a more “he quit on us” vibe.

What did he owe us anyway? That’s a weird thing about sports. Fans view players as commodities and expect some degree of loyalty. Most athletes are mercenaries for hire, balancing families, careers, and the cold certainty they’ll be out of the league quicker than Isaiah Thomas (the son) if they suffer a complicated injury. When Boston showed up with two wheelbarrows of money, you can’t blame Mitch for pulling out his pen.

What will the ecosystem of the New York Knicks be without him? Well, what would the world be like without ladybugs?

Primarily, ladybugs serve as natural controllers of aphids and other soft-bodied plant pests, and according to smart people with clipboards, their extinction would cause noticeable disruptions. Without them, aphid populations would surge rapidly, leading to increased damage to plants, crops, gardens, and forests (aphids suck sap, transmit plant viruses, cause wilting, stunted growth, and mold). That means higher economic losses in agriculture and potentially more chemical pesticides. Blech.

Extract one important piece out of an ecosystem and the whole thing can start misbehaving. Nobody notices ladybugs until the aphids arrive. Nobody notices offensive rebounds until they’re all going to the other team. How essential was Mitch, his energy, rebounding, and personality to the Knicks as a whole? We’re about to find out. 

(Fun Fact: A visit from a ladybug is often considered good luck in many cultures around the world. I’d bet a visit from Mitch would be pretty cool, too.)

Good luck, big fella, and thanks for all the fish.

Knicks in five.

MLB Player Props & Best Bets for Tonight — Friday, July 24

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We've got a stacked slate of MLB action tonight, so let's fill up those cards and kick off the weekend on a high note!

Let's dive into my favorite MLB player props and MLB picks to attack on Friday, July 24.

Best MLB player props today

Player PickOdds
Padres German MarquezUnder 3.5 Strikeouts-138
White Sox Munetaka Murakami1+ Hit-156
Rockies Tomoyuki SuganoOver 5.5 Hits Allowed-132

German Marquez Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-138)

Entering Friday, San Diego Padres right-hander German Marquez owns the lowest matchup strikeout rate among today's starters, according to Batters-Box.

On top of that, he has to face five elite-rated hitters and two hitters with strong ratings. The Miami Marlins also do not have a single hitter above the league average strikeout rate.

In 31 games with a poorly rated matchup strikeout rate, Marquez has gone under this prop 58.06% of the time. Across his last five starts, he owns just a 13.83% strikeout rate.

Even with the Marlins going through a cold stretch over the last few weeks, there is too much data on their side against Marquez for me to have any concern.

The right-hander has struggled recently, posting a 6.30 ERA, 5.68 xERA, and 1.80 WHIP over his last five starts.

  • Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: MIAM, SDPA

Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 Hits (-156)

If you are not in the juice paying business, take Munetaka Murakami's hits+runs+RBI prop instead. However, at this price, the floor is well worth it in my book.

The Chicago White Sox rookie has maintained a .273 BA, .922 OPS, and 54.5% hard hit rate over his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitchers.

Not to mention, he enters Friday evening with an elite rating on Batters-Box, where he records a hit 66.67% of the time. He also covers over 73% of Houston Astros right-hander Spencer Arrighetti's arsenal.

Arrighetti throws fastballs and curveballs 68.9% of the time, and Murakami has found success against both offerings. He owns an expected batting average of at least .378 and is generating at least a 60% hard hit rate against each pitch.

Arrighetti has struggled heavily against left-handed hitters this season, and his recent outings have not shown much improvement. Over his last 60 batters faced, hitters are generating a 42.4% hard hit rate, 18.2% barrel rate, and just a 24.2% ground ball rate.

I think Murakami is due for a big outing at the dish. Give me the floor at -156. 

  • Time: 7:40p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: CHSN, SCHN

Tomoyuki Sugano Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-132)

According to Batters-Box's current season dataset, the highest rated offense on the day belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers, who own an average hitter matchup rating of 0.501.

To put that number into perspective, a hitter matchup rating above 0.450 is considered "elite." Milwaukee enters Friday with five elite-rated hitters and two more carrying strong ratings.

Despite the Brewers' recent cold streak, I fully expect them to get after Colorado Rockies right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano this evening. Sugano enters with one of the worst pitcher ratings on the slate while allowing the most hard contact among today's starters.

When Sugano receives a poor rating on Batters-Box, he allows 5+ hits 70.37% of the time, 6+ hits 55.56% of the time, and 7+ hits 29.63% of the time. In his last ten poorly rated outings, he has allowed 6+ hits in six games.

I would play this down to -135 at the most, or look toward the Brewers to go Over their first five team total.

  • Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: COLR, BREW
Colby Marchio's 2026 Transparency Record
  • Prop picks: 332-625, -5.2 units

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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How Sharks' opening night roster is shaping up after NHL free agency, draft

How Sharks' opening night roster is shaping up after NHL free agency, draft originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area

Editor’s note: Sheng Peng is a regular contributor to NBC Sports California’s Sharks coverage. You can read more of his coverage on San Jose Hockey Now, listen to him on the San Jose Hockey Now Podcast, and follow him on Twitter at @Sheng_Peng.

What will the Sharks’ opening night roster look like?

That’s a tough thing to guess in late July, but here are some of my ideas.

Macklin Celebrini, Michael Misa, Zack Ostapchuk and Alex Wennberg lead the way at center.

Igor Chernyshov, Ty Dellandrea, Adam Gaudette, Barclay Goodrow, Collin Graf, Mason Marchment, Kiefer Sherwood, Will Smith, 2026 No. 2 pick Ivar Stenberg, and Tyler Toffoli are on the wing.

Barring injuries or a trade, that looks like a solid group of 14 forwards to start the season. It’ll be a challenge for any other Sharks’ forward prospects to crack this line-up.

On the blueline, Sam Dickinson, Michael Kesselring, Darnell Nurse, Dmitry Orlov, and Jacob Trouba project as opening night shoo-ins.

Prospects Nolan Allan, Luca Cagnoni, and Eric Pohlkamp appear to be competing for, at the moment, two roster spots. Veteran Libor Hajek shouldn’t be ruled out either.

In goal, Yaroslav Askarov and Alex Nedeljkovic figure to be the tandem.

So what will the Sharks look like on opening night? Here’s an early guess.

Chernyshov-Celebrini-Smith

What will Celebrini do next?

The hockey world waits with bated breath. The sky is the limit for the 20-year-old Hart Trophy candidate, who dominated the NHL, Olympics, and World Championships last season.

The bigger question for the Sharks: Who’s their next star up front? Celebrini needs help.

Maybe it’s cerebral playmaker Smith, who’s got 100-point potential. And it could also be 6-foot-2 Chernyshov, who complements the WillMack duo perfectly with his size and speed and skill.

This could be the line of the future for the Sharks.

Marchment-Misa-Toffoli

For the Sharks to take the next step, they’ll need Misa to emerge as a true two-way force.

It might not happen this coming season for the 2025 No. 2 pick, but he appears to have the talent to be the best second-line center in the NHL one day.

Putting skilled veterans around Misa could be the best way to unlock the 19-year-old’s ability.

6-foot-5 Marchment will make space along the boards and the front of the net, and the two-time 20-goal scorer has soft hands.

“Can score and play in traffic,” an NHL scout said of the Sharks’ big free agent signing up front. “Gets in dirty areas and has good skill.”

Toffoli struggled last season, but the four-time 30-goal sniper is the team’s most proven scorer this side of Celebrini.

The 34-year-old winger may not have staying power in the top-six this season, but it behooves the Sharks to give the veteran a chance to find his scoring touch early in the season.

Stenberg-Wennberg-Graf

Wennberg was tasked with the Sharks’ toughest defensive match-ups last year, but if Misa emerges as a legitimate two-way pivot, that should lighten the veteran center’s workload.

If so, Wennberg can take on a more balanced role this coming season, which could also mean shepherding 18-year-old Stenberg, at least at first.

I’d expect Stenberg to be a top-six fixture by the end of the season.

“Stenberg with Celebrini-Smith or Misa-Toffoli would allow him to play off the pass and with possession more often,” Jack Han, author of Hockey Tactics 2026, pointed out.

Graf and Sherwood could be interchangeable on this line? Graf offers a little more playmaking and defense with the same 20-goal upside.

Sherwood-Ostapchuk-Gaudette

It’s hard to see $5.75 million man Sherwood on the fourth line, but consider it a tribute to a deeper Sharks forward corps, and not any condemnation of the veteran winger’s game. He also provides legitimate depth.

“Marchment’s health and continued availability is always a question mark,” Han said. “Maybe this year is the year that Toffoli’s speed falls off completely.”

Sherwood’s crash-and-bang game also does fit up and down the line-up. He and Ostapchuk could also be the foundation of a new Sharks’ “identity” line, a more attack-dog mentality. Gaudette, meanwhile, has real finishing ability.

While Goodrow and Dellandrea are more stereotypical fourth-line fits, Sherwood and Gaudette together could potentially bring more offense out of Ostapchuk.

The Sharks are happy with Ostapchuk as their fourth-line pivot, but they would be over the moon if the 23-year-old took another step offensively.

Not a lot of teams around the league can roll four dangerous scoring lines, so here’s a chance for head coach Ryan Warsofsky to dominate his fourth line versus fourth line match-ups, too.

“I like Dellandrea as a depth player,” Han said. “I think he’s better defensively and reads the game better than Gaudette.”

Nurse-Trouba

Lots of pundits weren’t thrilled about the additions of these aging, expensive defenseman this off-season.

“If you run Nurse-Trouba against top lines, you’re cruising for a bruising,” Han remarked.

On the other hand, many do think that they’re clear upgrades for a Sharks defense in need of significant improvement.

So let’s put them to the test on opening night as the Sharks’ top pairing. While no one is expecting them to be elite No. 1 and 2 defensemen, they just need to be a sight better than what San Jose deployed last year.

Right-hander Nurse still skates well enough to play with the aggressive Trouba.

Dickinson-Kesselring

The Sharks are hoping that Nurse and Trouba can still be reasonable facsimiles of top blueliners, and they also hope that 20-year-old Dickinson and 26-year-old Kesselring can emerge as middle-pairing defenders this season too.

It’s a tall order, but the young defensemen have the talent to pull it off. They’re both big and mobile with some offensive gifts.

“I’d rather try Nurse-Kesselring; Kesselring is more mobile than Trouba,” Han said. “See if Dickinson can carry Trouba. It also forces you into a more balanced top-four because you’re going to have to shelter the third pair more.”

Cagnoni-Orlov

Among their five established blueliners, the Sharks don’t have a clear No. 1 power play quarterback.

The 21-year-old Cagnoni is a star in that role in the AHL, but can he do the same for the big club? Let’s find out early.

Dropping Orlov to the bottom pairing isn’t a statement about his game; the veteran Russian was San Jose’s No. 1 defenseman last year, and still capable of second-pairing minutes on a playoff team.

But 5-foot-9 left-hander Cagnoni will need some protection defensively, which a physical vet like Orlov can provide.

Allan is not waiver-exempt, so he appears to be a good option for No. 7 defenseman. Pohlkamp can get seasoning with the San Jose Barracuda and hopefully run their power play, and maybe earn a late-season call-up.

So is this line-up enough to get the Sharks into the playoffs?

“Misa and Dickinson are the biggest X-factors,” Han said. “Because if they perform at 75th percentile or better, then the Sharks have playoff-level depth.”

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Cubs Top 25 prospects: Pre-Trade Deadline update

Knoxville Smokies infielder Jefferson Rojas (2) runs to third base during a minor league baseball game between the Knoxville Smokies and Biloxi Shuckers at Covenant Health Park in Knoxville, Tenn., on July 7, 2026. | Angelina Alcantar/ News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Trade Deadline is just over a week away and the Cubs are expected to be aggressive buyers. So now is a good time to see what prospects the Cubs have that might interest other teams.

The Cubs farm system has had a good first half of the season. Both Double-A Knoxville and High-A South Bend won their first-half division titles. Several prospects, most notably Josiah Hartshorn and Owen Ayers, took huge steps forward and have established themselves among the Top 100 prospects in the game. I also think the Cubs had a good draft, although time will tell on that. But four recent draft picks made my new Top 25.

Several players have graduated off of my pre-season list. Pre-season top prospect Moisés Ballesteros may be back in the minors, but he exceeded the 120 plate appearances in the majors before going back down. Neither Kevin Alcántara nor Pedro Ramírez have 120 plate appearances yet, but both do have the 45 days in the majors, which is another marker of the end of prospect status. But it should be noted that while Mo Baller, the Jaguar and Ramírez (someone get Pedro a nickname!) are no longer considered prospects, they are the kinds of players with potential and six years of team control that teams are looking for when trading with the Cubs.

Here is where I see the Cubs’ Top 25 prospects at the moment. I think this list is a lot deeper than the one that I made this past winter. Still, there isn’t a lot of difference between someone ranked 19 and 25 nor between someone ranked in the 20s and a lot of people I didn’t rank. So if you’re asking “Why isn’t [so-and-so] here?,” the answer is almost certainly “I could have put him on instead of [player name].”

A quick reminder that this year’s draft picks—Cade Townsend, Brandon Sorrell, Myles Bailey and Carson Jasa—cannot be traded at the Deadline.

As always, I don’t rank players still in the Dominican Summer League. However, those players will also be available for trades. But major league teams only rarely want players that young and that far away from the majors in Deadline deals.

BCB Cubs top 25 prospects: Mid-season update

  1. Josiah Hartshorn 1B/OF
  2. Jefferson Rojas INF
  3. Owen Ayers C
  4. Kane Kepley OF
  5. Cade Townsend RHP
  6. Jaxon Wiggins RHP
  7. Ethan Conrad OF
  8. Kaleb Wing RHP
  9. Caden Sorrell OF
  10. James Triantos 2B/OF
  11. Jonathon Long 1B/LF
  12. Myles Bailey 1B
  13. Ty Southisene SS
  14. Brooks Caple RHP
  15. Dominick Reid RHP
  16. Juan Cabada 2B
  17. Jostin Florentino RHP
  18. Mason McGwire RHP 
  19. Brett Bateman OF
  20. Will Sanders RHP
  21. Nazier Mulé RHP 
  22. Jose Escobar LF/2B
  23. Carson Jasa RHP
  24. Grant Kipp RHP
  25. Pierce Coppola LHP

Josiah Hartshorn has been struggling a bit lately, but he still shows an advanced approach at the plate and excellent power. There’s some risk here from the hit tool, maybe more than some of us would like to admit, but he’s probably one of the top 40 prospects in baseball right now and probably off-limits for all likely trades.

Jefferson Rojas, still just 21, is having an excellent season in Double-A after struggling in his first exposure there last year. With the Cubs major league infield set for the near future, he’s a strong candidate to get dealt.

Owen Ayers built off that strong Arizona Fall League performance and has played his way all the way up to Triple-A. He’s still a bat-over-glove catcher, but his defense is getting better and his arm has always been strong. Teams will ask about him and while I don’t think he’s off-limits, the Cubs will be loathe to deal him for anything short of a haul.

Kane Kepley is an on-base machine who steals a ton of bases. He’s also a very good defensive center fielder. With Pete Crow-Armstrong ensconced in center for the foreseeable future, Kepley has to be considered a trade candidate for the right price.

The injuries to Jaxon Wiggins have me moving him just behind first-round draft pick Cade Townsend. With the Townsend pick, Wiggins becomes more available. I’m not sure, however, that Wiggins has time enough to re-establish his value before next Monday for the Cubs to get enough back to deal him.

Ethan Conrad has only just started playing after being last year’s first-round pick. So far, he hasn’t looked all that impressive in Low-A Myrtle Beach, but he’s also missed more than a year of playing time. So it may just be rust.

James Triantos is making his major-league debut today. He’s re-established some value after a strong season in Iowa. But while Triantos could be a major league starter, he lacks the power to be an impact player and his major league role and skill set is duplicated by Matt Shaw and Pedro Ramírez, whom I’d argue do it better.

Ty Southisene is currently injured, but his value has gone up this year as he’s hit .302 with a .422 OBP. He’s also proven that he can at minimum play an adequate shortstop, which gives him a lot more utility infielder value. He has yet to hit his first professional home run, which lowers his value

Juan Cabada makes my list for the first time after playing in the Arizona Complex League. He showed a solid bat as an 18-year-old before he got injured at the end of May. He has not returned to the field since then.

I still think Mason McGwire is a reliever at the major league level, but after missing all of 2025, he looks like a completely different pitcher this year with better stuff and much-improved command. There’s also always the chance I’m wrong and McGwire ends up as a starter. I can imagine the A’s or the Cardinals asking for McGwire in any potential trade.

I’m still quite suspicious of Brett Bateman as his .306 batting average in Iowa is driven by a very high batting average on balls in play. He also has almost no power. But Bateman also makes a lot of contact, walks about as much as he strikes out, steals a lot of bases and plays good defense in center field. He’s more of a fourth outfielder than a starter, but he’s also in Triple-A and close to major-league ready.

Nazier Mulé touches 100 miles per hour and has greatly improved his control this year. He still walks too many batters, but he’s moving in the right direction. It should be noted that Mulé didn’t devote himself full-time to pitching until the Cubs drafted him out of high school in 2022.

Jose Escobar is having a breakout season in South Bend, in large part because he’s dropped his strikeout rate from 20.8 percent to 13 percent. The fact that he’s looking more “left fielder” than “second baseman” hurts his value, but a team that thinks he can still play second base might value him higher.

Astros Prospect Report: July 23rd

Jun 22, 2025; Omaha, Neb, USA; LSU Tigers designated hitter Ethan Frey (16) hits a single against the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers during the ninth inning at Charles Schwab Field. Mandatory Credit: Dylan Widger-Imagn Images | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below. Check out yesterday’s recap here.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (49-48) POSTPONED

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (43-49) POSTPONED

A+: Asheville Tourists (32-60) lost 4-3 (BOX SCORE)

Oakes started for Asheville and went 3.1 innings allowing 2 runs. The offense got on the board in the 4th inning on a Frey solo home run. After the Hot Rods got a run in the 6th, Batista tied the game in the 7th with a 2 run home run. The Hot Rods immediately retook the lead though with a run in the bottom of the 7th. Asheville was unable to score again as they fell 4-3.

Note: Frey has a .773 OPS in High-A.


A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (46-45) won 10-2 (BOX SCORE)

The Woodpeckers got on the board in the first on a Luciano RBI double. They broke it open in the 3rd scoring 5 runs on a Luciano RBI single, Flores groundout, Fielder RBI single and Cauro 2 run home run. In the 5th inning, Fielder added an RBI triple. The offense got 2 more runs in the 6th on a wild pitch and Sierra sac fly. Beck got the start for the Woodpeckers and was great tossing 6 scoreless innings with 6 strikeouts. Fielder added a run in the 8th on a bases loaded hit by pitch. Shoemaker tossed 2 scoreless innings in relief and Rosario closed it out allowing 2 runs as the Woodpeckers won 10-2.

Note: Luciano is hitting .400 over his last 14 games.


Today’s minor league starters:

SL: Ryan Weiss – 7:05 CT

CC: Nolan DeVos – 5:05 CT

AV: Andrew Taylor – 6:35 CT

FV: TBD – 5:35 CT

Royals Reacts Survey – Let’s make a deal

Michael Wacha poses during All-Star Game press activities
PHILADELPHIA, PA - JULY 13: Michael Wacha #52 of the Kansas City Royals speaks to the media during the 2026 American League Media Availability at Citizens Bank Park on Monday, July 13, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Drew Hallowell/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Royals fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

In a recent Trade Deadline-focused piece for The Athletic, writer Jim Bowden proposed a trade between the Cubs and Royals that he would like to see:

Cubs receive: Michael Wacha, RHP

Royals receive: Matt Shaw, INF/OF; Kevin Alcántara, OF

[…]

In return, the Royals get two young bats who can’t crack the Cubs’ starting lineup in Shaw and Alcántara. Shaw, 24, can play second base, third base and corner outfield. As an everyday player, he projects to have 15-20 home run power. Alcántara, 23, has never been given a legitimate chance with Chicago, but he’s having another strong season in Triple A.

Both players are 24. Shaw is nominally a third baseman, but has played primarily in right field with some second and first mixed in. Alcántara is a centerfielder. Shaw was considered the 22nd overall best prospect in MLB by FanGraphs when he graduated last year and was hitting about league average before being sidelined with an injury on June 29th. He still needs to tap into some game power to be as good as he’s projected, but the projections are very good indeed.

Alcántara is still considered a prospect, and the fifth best in the Cubs’ system, despite debuting in 2024 due to a lack of plate appearances at the big league level. On his third run at AAA, he’s doing quite well for himself with a .936 OPS and a double-digit walk rate. He strikes out nearly 1/3 of the time, but if he can access in the big leagues the power that’s seen him hit 17 home runs in 55 AAA games this year, he could be a very valuable player indeed. Despite having well-graded speed, he’s never stolen as many as 20 bases in a single season.

Ideally, I think the Royals would want to focus on guys who were still true prospects rather than graduated and nearly-graduated guys. They might also prefer someone for whom baseball was more of a priority than Shaw has shown it to be for him. But these are still a pair of very talented hitters and would probably be a huge boost to the youth and talent of the Royals organization. How would you grade this trade if the Royals and Cubs agreed to it?

MLB Predictions and Moneyline Picks for Today — Friday, July 24

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As we put that five-game Thursday slate behind us, a full Friday slate is here. This evening, I am loving the underdog market, so let's dive in!

Here are today's MLB moneyline predictions as we break down a full slate of MLB picks for Friday, July 24, starring the Atlanta Braves.

MLB moneyline picks for July 24

MatchupPick
RockiesRockies
vs
BrewersBrewers
Rockies
+223
RoyalsRoyals
vs
TigersTigers
Royals
+264
CubsCubs
vs
PiratesPirates
Cubs
+108
DiamondbacksDiamondbacks
vs
NationalsNationals
Nationals
+111
YankeesYankees
vs
PhilliesPhillies
Phillies
-125
BravesBraves
vs
OriolesOrioles
Braves
+106
DodgersDodgers
vs
MetsMets
Dodgers
-133
GuardiansGuardians
vs
RaysRays
Rays
-127
PadresPadres
vs
MarlinsMarlins
Padres
+125
Blue JaysBlue Jays
vs
Red SoxRed Sox
Red Sox
-117
AstrosAstros
vs
White SoxWhite Sox
Astros
+125
MarinersMariners
vs
RangersRangers
Rangers
+108
AthleticsAthletics
vs
TwinsTwins
Athletics
+130
RedsReds
vs
CardinalsCardinals
Cardinals
-147
AngelsAngels
vs
GiantsGiants
Angels
+153

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 7-24.

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Expert MLB moneyline picks for July 24

Rockies vs Brewers: Rockies (+223)

Rockies win probability: 31%

Are you really going to lay -228 with a Brewers offense that has an 87 wRC+, a 25% strikeout rate, and just a 5.8% barrel rate over its last six games?

Meanwhile, the Rockies own a 41% hard-hit rate, a 19.6% strikeout rate, and a .175 ISO over their last six.

Sure, Tomoyuki Sugano isn't the sexiest pitcher to put your money on, but at +223, it may be worth a sprinkle.

Royals vs Tigers: Royals (+264)

Royals win probability: 28%

Are you really paying -270 just because Tarik Skubal is on the mound? You shouldn't.

The Royals' offense is finally starting to heat up, posting a 115 wRC+, a .336 wOBA, and a .762 OPS over its last 12 games.

Meanwhile, the Tigers have a 25.6% strikeout rate, a 35% hard-hit rate, and a 104 wRC+ over that same stretch.

Give me the Royals.

Cubs vs Pirates: Cubs (+108)

Cubs win probability: 48%

Give me another underdog!

Sure, Jared Jones has been nails over his last few starts, but the Pirates' offense has gone cold lately. Meanwhile, the Cubs have posted a 130 wRC+, a .360 wOBA, and an .809 OPS over their last six games.

Matthew Boyd has been a bit shaky on the road, but over his last three starts, he's posted a 2.45 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and just a 5.56% walk rate.

If the Cubs' offense can get to Jones while Boyd continues pitching at this level, I think they come out on top.

Diamondbacks vs Nationals: Nationals (+111)

Nationals win probability: 48%

You could not convince me to back the Diamondbacks when one of the most efficient offenses in baseball is an underdog.

While Arizona has started to heat up over the past week, Washington has been rolling for more than a month. On top of that, Eduardo Rodriguez owns a 4.91 xERA and 1.48 WHIP on the road this season, and he's carrying a 6.52 ERA over his last three starts.

Yankees vs Phillies: Phillies (-125)

Phillies win probability: 56%

Sure, Cam Schlittler is on the mound for the Yankees, but how are they going to score runs? Over their last 21 games, New York has posted a 74 wRC+, .281 wOBA, and .634 OPS.

Meanwhile, Jesus Luzardo takes the ball for the Phillies, carrying a 0.69 ERA, 1.42 xERA, and 0.61 WHIP across his last three starts.

The Phillies offense has not been much better, but I believe Schlittler is due for some regression over his next few outings, which gives Philadelphia the edge in this matchup.

Braves vs Orioles: Braves (+106)

Braves win probability: 48%

The underdog leans keep rolling!

Trevor Rogers takes the mound for the Orioles this evening, and while he has looked excellent lately, his underlying metrics point toward regression.

Over his last three starts, Rogers owns a 1.04 ERA, but his expected ERA sits at 4.26. His strikeout rate has been low, his walk rate has been a bit elevated, and the left-hander is allowing nearly 44% hard contact to opposing hitters.

Grant Holmes gets the ball for the Braves and has been sharp over his last five starts, posting a 1.90 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Atlanta's offense has also started to heat up, making the Braves a very appealing underdog in this spot.

Dodgers vs Mets: Dodgers (-133)

Dodgers win probability: 57%

God, this is gross. Roki Sasaki versus Sean Manaea is not exactly a pitching matchup that inspires confidence, so expect some fireworks. Even so, I'm rolling with the Dodgers here.

Sasaki has been shaky all season, but Los Angeles still has the superior lineup and bullpen. In a matchup like this, I'll trust the better team overall.

Guardians vs Rays: Rays (-130)

Rays win probability: 56%

This should be a solid matchup based on how well both offenses have been swinging the bats lately, but I think the Rays come out on top this evening.

The biggest reason is Joey Cantillo. While his recent results may not look terrible, the underlying metrics suggest regression is on the horizon.

Across his last three starts, he has allowed a 44% hard-hit rate, a .463 BABIP, and owns a 1.80 WHIP. I think those numbers catch up to him tonight, giving Tampa Bay the edge.

Padres vs Marlins: Padres (+125)

Padres win probability: 44%

I find it difficult to back an offense that owns a 70 wRC+, .268 wOBA, and .602 OPS over its last six games, especially when the opposing team has posted a 167 wRC+, .406 wOBA, and .944 OPS over that same stretch. I want the Padres here.

German Marquez has been a liability for much of the season, but if he can simply be serviceable against this ice-cold Marlins offense, the Padres should be in a good spot against Ryan Gusto.

Blue Jays vs Red Sox: Red Sox (-117)

Red Sox win probability: 54%

It's the Red Sox or nothing here.

The Blue Jays remain one of the most lifeless offenses in baseball, posting just a 67 wRC+, .266 wOBA, and .115 ISO over their last 21 games. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have been one of the hottest teams in the league during that same stretch.

Pay the juice.

Astros vs White Sox: Astros (+125)

Astros win probability: 44%

With Davis Martin's recent struggles on the mound and how cold the White Sox have been at the plate, even after coming off a series win, I want no part of them here.

The Astros offense has been humming, and if they can get to Martin early, I trust Spencer Arrighetti to keep Chicago's ice-cold lineup in check.

Mariners vs Rangers: Rangers (+108)

Rangers win probability: 48%

The Mariners can be everyone's AL sleeper all they want, but they still own an 81 wRC+, .283 wOBA, and .623 OPS over their last six games. Those numbers have remained virtually unchanged across their last 21 games.

On the other side, the Rangers offense is starting to heat up, posting a 118 wRC+, .339 wOBA, and .770 OPS over that same 21-game stretch.

I am willing to trust MacKenzie Gore here despite his ugly 7.09 ERA over his last five starts. His underlying metrics tell a much different story, as he owns a 3.11 xERA during that span. 

Athletics vs Twins: Athletics (+130)

Athletics win probability: 44%

With Twins right-hander Zebby Matthews taking the mound, I want the Athletics. Over his last three starts, Matthews owns a 10.54 ERA, 5.86 xERA, and 2.19 WHIP, making him one of the easiest pitchers to fade on the slate.

Jacob Lopez has not been much better in terms of results for the Athletics, but his underlying numbers are far more encouraging. He owns a 2.78 xERA over his last three starts, giving me more confidence in Oakland to come away with the win.

The Athletics offense has been heating up, while the Twins have been cooling down. Give me the A's!

Reds vs Cardinals: Cardinals (-147)

Cardinals win probability: 60%

Your mom's new favorite country singer, Rhett Lowder, takes the bump for the Reds this evening while carrying a 9.64 ERA, 4.81 xERA, and 2.36 WHIP over his last five starts. Not to mention, he is allowing a 43% hard-hit rate and has posted an extremely high .481 BABIP during that stretch.

Even with the Cardinals struggling over the past week, I think this is a clear bounce-back spot for them.

Angels vs Giants: Angels (+153)

Angels win probability: 40%

Holy gross. Both starters this evening are carrying ERAs above 8.00 over their last three starts, while both offenses have been completely frozen across their last 12 games.

Give me the underdog here. I am not paying $1.56 for a struggling arm paired with a struggling offense.

Do not pay the juice. Take the dog.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Saluting the newest 76er with 10 insane LeBron James stats

Saluting the newest 76er with 10 insane LeBron James stats originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

LeBron James is now a 76er, and he brings with him to Philly some of the most remarkable stats in NBA history.

Games, wins, minutes, points, All-Star appearances. You name it, he’s among the NBA’s all-time leaders. And we’re here to break it all down for you.

It’s LeBron James Stat Time!

1. With career averages of 27.0 points, 7.5 rebounds and 7.4 assists per game, James is one of only three players in NBA history to average 25 points, 7 rebounds and 7 assists per game. The others are Luka Dončić (29.4, 8.6, 8.2) and Hall of Famer Oscar Robertson (25.4, 7.5, 9.5). Only LeBron, Magic Johnson and Ben Simmons have averaged 7 assists, 7 rebounds and 1 ½ steals per game in their career.

2. James’ 700 career games with 30 or more points is an NBA record. He broke Michael Jordan’s record of 671 when he scored 40 points in the Lakers’ win over the Nets on March 31, 2024 at Barclays Center. James also has the most 20-point games with 1,589, nearly 300 more than Kareen Abdul-Jabbar’s 1,291 and not surprisingly, he also holds the NBA record for 10-point games with 1,913 — 180 more than Abdul-Jabbar.

3. James isn’t just the NBA’s all-time leading scorer with 51,961 points, he’s scored 23,641 points since turning 30. He needs only 179 points to pass Abdul-Jabbar’s record of 23,819 points after turning 30.

4. James has been an NBA All-Star a record 22 consecutive years, every year of his career other than his rookie year with the Cavs in 2003-04. The previous record was Kobe Bryant’s 17 straight All-Star teams from 2000 through 2016. James was top-10 in MVP voting a record 15 consecutive years from 2004 through 2018. He’s been top-10 in MVP voting 18 total times.

5. In addition to being the NBA’s all-time scoring leader, he’s also the postseason scoring leader with 8,521 points — more than 2,500 more points than Jordan’s 5,987. He’s also the NBA postseason leader with 506 steals.

6. James has played in an NBA-record 1,226 wins, eight more than Abdul-Jabbar. His 188 postseason wins are an NBA record, 27 more than Derek Fisher. He’s played in 1,048 regular-season wins, 26 fewer than Abdul-Jabbar’s record-1,074. James’ four NBA championships — 2012 and 2013 with the Heat, 2016 with the Cavs and 2020 with the Lakers — are tied with Steph Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson for most among active players. The only other players to win NBA titles with three teams are former 76er Danny Green (2014 Spurs, 2019 Raptors, 2020 Lakers), John Salley (1989, 1990 Pistons, 1996 Bulls, 2000 Lakers) and Robert Horry (1994, 1995 Rockets, 2000, 2001, 2002 Lakers, 2005, 2007 Spurs). Only James has been Finals MVP with three teams.

7. James averaged 20.9 points per game last year, more than twice as many as any other player 41 years or older has ever averaged. The next-highest scoring average by a player 41 or older is Abdul-Jabbar’s 10.1 with the Lakers in 1988-89. In 2024, James averaged 24.4 points per game at 40 years old. That’s eight points higher than anyone else. Abdul-Jabbar scored 14.6 in 1987-88. James’ overall average of 22.8 points per game since turning 40 is nearly 10 points per game higher than the next-highest player in NBA history, Karl Malone, who scored 13.2 points per game in his 40s. Only Abdul-Jabbar (12.4) and John Stockton (10.8) also averaged double digits in their 40s. James’ 7.7 assists per game are tied with Stockton for highest ever by a player in his 40s and his 7.0 rebounds are 2nd-most behind Malone’s 8.7.

8. James has 11 triple-doubles in the NBA Finals. Only Magic Johnson, with eight, also has more than three. James has 11 of the 40 all-time NBA Finals triple doubles, or 28 percent of every Finals triple double ever recorded.

9. James is the oldest player ever to score 40 points in a game and until December last season he was also the youngest player to score 40 points in a game. James was 40 years, 52 days last year when he scored 40 points against the Trail Blazers at Moda Center in Portland, Ore. He was 19 years, 88 days when he scored 41 vs. the Nets with the Cavs against the Nets at Gund Arena in Cleveland. He was both the oldest and youngest player to score 40 in a game until Cooper Flagg scored 42 points at 18 years, 359 days for the Mavs against the Jazz at Delta Center in Salt Lake City this past December.

10. Including the postseason, James has played an NBA-record 73,506 minutes, more than 7,000 more minutes than 2nd-place Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. The only NBA player to average more minutes than James over the last 20 years is Allen Iverson.

Duke-Michigan basketball game canceled for 2026 amid media rights dispute

Duke and Michigan's non-conference men's basketball matchup, previously scheduled for Dec. 21, has been canceled, a Michigan spokesperson confirmed to USA TODAY Sports on July 24.

The two powerhouse programs had originally agreed to play at Madison Square Garden in New York City before trying to move the game to the Miami Marlins' stadium. Neither team could come to an agreement, according to multiple reports, and Duke will now play Texas Tech at Madison Square Garden on Dec. 21 instead.

A request for comment by USA TODAY Sports to Duke was not immediately returned at the time of publication. Michigan declined to comment, but confirmed prior reports of the game's cancellation.

Duke originally negotiated a three-game TV deal with Amazon Prime Video in April after the game had been scheduled. That complicated the matchup for Michigan, as the Big Ten has a broadcast partnership with Fox. The Big Ten believed Michigan should receive a cut of the revenue for the game with Madison Square Garden being in the conference's TV footprint.

"Hopefully it'll be resolved," Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel said at Big Ten spring meetings in May. "It's a great college basketball game, given who we are, who they are in college basketball. I love the opportunity to play them, but we just have to make sure everything was right."

Duke and Michigan played each other last season, ending in a 68-63 win by the Blue Devils in Washington, D.C., over the eventual national champions. That game was a part of a separate game not broadcast by Amazon Prime Video, but was rather displayed on ESPN.

UCLA coach Mick Cronin said there was no shot the game would be played when asked at Big Ten spring meetings.

"No chance it goes through," he said. "Not when Fox has paid hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars for the rights."

Former Michigan coach Dusty May has also since left the Wolverines for the NBA's Dallas Mavericks, which also could've played a role in the game being canceled. Michigan has since elevated assistant coach Mike Boynton Jr. to full-time head coach after previously appointing him as its interim coach.

Both Duke and Michigan are expected to be among the top teams in the country next season, as both return talented rosters from runs to the Elite Eight or beyond in 2025.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Duke-Michigan basketball game canceled for 2026 amid media rights dispute

Yankees vs Phillies Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight's MLB Game

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The Philadelphia Phillies are -135 favorites to take the series opener vs. the New York Yankees tonight at Citizens Bank Park. 

But with two excellent starters taking on a pair of struggling offenses, I'm happy to take the value on the underdog with my Yankees vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks for Friday, July 24.

Who will win Yankees vs Phillies today: Yankees moneyline (+115)

The Philadelphia Phillies are ice-cold on offense. They have hit just .222 against right-handed pitching in July and .202 over their last 10 games. 

Cam Schlittler has allowed only eight runs over eight starts against teams that ranked Bottom-10 in batting average in the 10 games prior to squaring off, and the Phillies sit 27th.

Jesus Luzardo is in exceptional form himself. However, he owns a 4.68 ERA against Top-10 opponents in OPS vs. left-handed pitching. The New York Yankees sit second on the year.

Back the Yankees to +100.

Covers COVERS INTEL:Schlittler ranks in the 96th percentile in Pitcher Run Value this season.

Yankees vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-115)

Scoring runs should feel like pulling teeth in this one.

The Phillies own a very underwhelming .296 wOBA and have struck out at the sixth-highest rate vs. righties in July. That should spell trouble against Schlittler, who ranks above the 90th percentile in both xwOBA and K%.

While the Yankees own excellent numbers against lefties this season, they have hit .204 with a 32.7K% during the month of July.

It’ll be tough to flip the switch against Luzardo, one of the most in-form pitchers in the majors.

Bet the Under to -125.

Todd Cordell's 2026 Transparency Record
  • ML/RL bets: 62-53, -3.05 units
  • Over/Under bets: 62-48-5, +5.99 units

Yankees vs Phillies weather

The forecast calls for temperatures in the low 80s with winds blowing in. Very minimal boost to the bats.

Yankees vs Phillies odds

  • Moneyline: Yankees +115 | Phillies -135
  • Run line: Yankees +1.5 (-190) | Phillies -1.5 (+160)
  • Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-105) | Under 7.5 (-115)

Yankees vs Phillies trend

The Yankees have hit the Under in 20 of their last 30 games (+9.30 units, 29% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Phillies.

How to watch Yankees vs Phillies and game info

LocationCitizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
DateFriday, July 24, 2026
First pitch6:45 p.m. ET
TVApple TV
Yankees starting pitcherWill Warren
(7-4, 4.00 ERA)
Phillies starting pitcherJesus Luzardo
(9-4, 3.43 ERA)

Yankees vs Phillies latest injuries

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Mariners News: Luis Castillo, Emerson Hancock, and Tarik Skubal

Jul 21, 2026; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Luis Castillo (58) throws against the Cincinnati Reds during the fourth inning at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images | Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

Hello everyone and happy Friday!

The M’s are back in action this afternoon, traveling to Arlington to face the Rangers. What would you need to see from the club’s upcoming road trip to Texas and Los Angeles to consider it a success?

In Mariners news…

Around the league…

  • Passing along a plug here to help a local Harleem baseball icon’s family pay for his funeral expenses.

Tyler Locklear impresses in game against the Cardinals

Jul 23, 2026; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Brandon Pfaadt (32) throws against St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Blaze Jordan (33) during the fourth inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-Imagn Images | Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

Diamondbacks News

(MLB.com) Super sub Locklear ‘always ready’ as first HR of 2026 powers surging D-backs

“Not easy to do what he did,” manager Torey Lovullo said. “He comes to the ballpark, he’s always preparing to play. I know that. But the lineup goes out the night before, and there’s a couple things he’s probably going to come here and work on. And all of the sudden transitions an hour before the ballgame starts and he’s going to be starting at first base. I think he’s got the right mindset. He’s always ready.”

(Arizona Sports) Tyler Locklear’s 1st home run of 2026 powers Diamondbacks to impressive win over Cardinals

The Diamondbacks have now won nine of their last 11 games and are averaging 7.3 runs during their last 10 games.

Locklear went 3-for-5 Thursday with a double in addition to his long ball. He’s now batting .385 (5-for-13) since his callup.

Del Castillo, Moreno and Vargas all joined Locklear with three hits apiece, and Nolan Arenado contributed two hits off the bench.

(SI.com) The Diamondbacks May Have Just Found Their First Base Solution

And when the Diamondbacks recalled first baseman Tyler Locklear on July 17, even his exceptional Triple-A hot streak offered little reason to assume he’d produce at a level he’s never shown success at before.

But that hasn’t been quite the case.

(Burn City Sports) Corbin Carroll’s 12th triple of the season puts him in rare company

Carroll reached 55 career triples in just 587 games. By comparison, Marte and Trout each needed more than 1,500 games to reach that same total. The feat further establishes the 25-year-old Diamondbacks outfielder as one of the game’s premier extra-base threats, combining elite contact, speed and power.

Carroll’s pace doesn’t just stand out among active players — it also puts him alongside one of baseball’s greatest legends.

According to Sarah Langs, Carroll is just the second player in MLB history to record at least 55 triples and 85 home runs through his first 587 career games, joining only Lou Gehrig.

MLB News

(Yahoo! Sports) Tarik Skubal says he regrets not getting offseason elbow MRI, admits he might be making his final home start at Comerica Park

The Detroit Tigers ace found himself clearing the air Thursday after a discourse outbreak around his decision to not undergo an MRI last offseason, which could have revealed an issue in his elbow at a more convenient time. Instead, he underwent a novel treatment for loose bodies in May and missed a month and a half.

In comments to The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen published Wednesday, Skubal recalled feeling like “something was wrong” in his pitching elbow in January. He said he chose to ignore the symptoms rather than undergo the MRI.

[Ed. Note] I recognize that the Diamondbacks were never going to be in on the Skubal sweepstakes this offseason, but this makes me glad they aren’t. To risk so much over a one off arbitration hearing? Just wildly irresponsible.


(ClutchPoints) Royals’ Salvador Perez asks police to remove fan from jail after home run ball incident

Anyone entering the fountains is subject to immediate arrest, transportation to the police station, and prosecution, according to the Royals’ ballpark rules.

Following the game, Perez asked authorities to show leniency.

“Please, police, just take care of the job please and send him home,” he said. “If I was him, I’d maybe jump too and try to get that ball, so please. And thank you for the hard work in trying to get that ball.”.

(Yahoo! Sports) Mark Cuban’s firm buys minority stake in Athletics ahead of move to Las Vegas

Mark Cuban is expanding his sports portfolio.

Harbinger Sports Partners, the private equity firm backed by the former Dallas Mavericks majority owner, has purchased a minority stake of undisclosed size in the Athletics ahead of their move to Las Vegas, according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal’s Mick Akers.

Kerry Carpenter’s more selective approach isn’t working out

Apr 21, 2026; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Tigers right fielder Kerry Carpenter (30) strikes out to end the fourth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-Imagn Images | David Reginek-Imagn Images

If you’d told me on March 1st that Kerry Carpenter would be batting 6th on July 20th, I would have assumed the Tigers had the best offense in baseball, or at least that a lefty was on the mound. I would certainly have been wrong.

After years of menacing right-handed pitchers from the top of Detroit’s lineup – his 132 wRC+ from 2024-25 was tied for 23rd, among sluggers like Pete Alonso or Matt Olson – 2026 has been more of a struggle for Detroit’s resident cult favorite. Over 76 games so far, almost every stat has gone the wrong direction, leading to an underwhelming 93 wRC+ and -0.5 fWAR. This is not the Kerry Carpenter from the 2024 ALDS. If the Tigers want to see the 2026 ALDS, they’ll almost certainly need him back in form, so let’s start trying to figure this out.

The first thing to note: while injuries are part of the story, he doesn’t look injured in any observable way. Yes, he missed 3 weeks with a shoulder sprain after he ran into the wall on an insider the parker. Yes, the play was as ugly as you remember. No, I won’t show it to you; I’ll spare Kerry the embarrassment. However, that doesn’t seem to tell the whole story, as neither his sprint speed (27 ft/s) nor his bat speed (71.8 mph) have changed at all from his best seasons. It’s good that he isn’t playing through a nagging injury, but it also means a few days off won’t likely have him magically feeling better, either. If they want to fix Carpenter, they probably need to start with his gameplan at the plate.

Carpenter’s approach has typically been to swing often and hit the ball really hard. He didn’t want to walk, but by swinging early and often, he frequently ended the at-bat before he could strike out. Sure, he chased a lot, but he crushed baseballs and made a lot of contact with a fly ball heavy profile anyways, so who really cared? Unfortunately, either by choice or by chance, Carpenter has seemingly abandoned that approach in 2026 to disastrous results.

Zone %Zone Swing %Chase %Strikeout RateBarrel %
202550.371.534.122.812.3
202645.166.635.829.79.8

To summarize: compared to 2025, Carpenter is seeing fewer strikes, swinging at a smaller proportion of those strikes, striking out more, and making worse contact, all at the same time. On their own, none of those are good,, but combined, they’re pretty disastrous. This new approach has dropped him from 51st to 103rd in barrel rate, and his small improvements in walk rate just haven’t offset the power drop.

So the symptoms are obvious. Carpenter’s entirely out of sorts at the plate, I just don’t know why. Is it a conscious approach change after only a 3.9% walk rate last year? Is he entirely focused on ABS and challenges and letting that throw him off his gameplan? Unfortunately, I couldn’t say from here. All I know is Carpenter went from one of the most feared sluggers when you challenge him in the zone, to a near pushover. He just has rarely been on time, and his distinctive swing, heavily weighted on his back leg and looking to snap the bat off that platform, has looked out of whack most of the year.

Unfortunately, it gets even worse. For some reason, Carpenter has spent more than 60% of his games in the outfield. That is an unwise decision. Despite a strong arm and close to average speed, Carpenter is rating as one of the absolute worst fielders in the game. He’s only played in the outfield for 330 innings – the season’s had close to 900 – and yet is tied for the 15th-worst defender at any position with -7 OAA. If, for some reason, he played every inning of every game, he’d rate about as well as Andrew Vaughn did in right field that one year. I cannot stress how little of a compliment that is. Roughly average offense and bottom of the barrel defense is not a winning combination.

Now, Carpenter’s starting from such a high place that even his fall from grace has him near average at the dish. That includes 27 straight at-bats without a hit before his single on Wednesday; before his dreadful July, he had a 120 wRC+ and a concerning strikeout rate, so the tools have all been there at points of 2026. Only in June did he really break out into good Carpenter territory for a sustained stretch. Unfortunately, as the Tigers learned in May, one bad month can pretty much ruin the whole season. To force the issue in the weeklong sprint to the deadline, and through what will be a months long chase to the finish line even if things go well, they’ll need Carpenter to start slugging again. He might have to start turning it loose more aggressively to do so.

Guardians Trade Target: Heliot Ramos

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - JULY 22: Heliot Ramos #17 of the San Francisco Giants loses his bat while swinging during the ninth inning against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium on July 22, 2026 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The Guardians’ playoff aspirations could use some Helium so why not try some Heliot?

You can view our larger trade deadline piece here as we discuss a wider pool of options the Guardians may consider. To make my position clear, I expect the Guardians to make smaller moves, like trading Bo Naylor and getting a castoff/undervalued reliever. But, in the interest of exploring potential larger moves, we are doing a series looking at some of those bigger names. So far, we have discussed Spencer Steer , Luis Arraez, Shea Langeliers and Taylor Ward.

I will write up some pitchers in this series, I promise, but there is no denying that this team’s biggest need is a slugger. Ramos is one of the few players potentially available who might POTENTIALLY fit that bill. Ramos is a 26 year-old outfielder with a 107 wRC+, a career 25/7 K/BB%, career .258/.316/.425 slashline. He has a career 135 wRC+ against LHP (96 vs RHP). He has a career average.exit velo of 91.7 mph and a 12% barrel rate and a 47.7% hard-hit rate. Unlike most right-handed hitters, his career home run total would be projected to be +1 more at Progressive Field.

And that is the rub. Ramos plays in a terrible hitters park in San Francisco. The goal would be to get him out of there and let him really unleash his pop in Progressive Field. His 25% opposite-field hit rate could actually help him sneak a few out in left field, but, generally speaking, not having to play in a cavern on a constantly chilly bay should help.

Ramos is under control through 2029. Although he is only a slightly above average hitter overall and a poor defender who should be confined to a corner outfield spot, he will be valued pretty highly by the Giants who don’t have to trade him yet, as there are so few true lefty mashers available and Heliot is that, for certain. I suspect the Giants are going to demand a headliner for this deal. Maybe the Guardians could snag Ramos with quantity over quality but I think it probably takes an Angel Genao to shake Ramos free right now.

I don’t think the Guardians would be wise to make that trade. But, also… sometimes you gotta take a risk to find power. The team desperately needs power. I would not trade Genao for Ramos… unless I was convinced that he can become a 30 homer a seasoj player here… and I do think that is at least a slim possibility. But, man… it would be a gamble.

If the Guardians somehow pluck Ramos from old trading partner Buster Posey, their lineup could look like:

  1. Kwan CF
  2. Jose 3B
  3. DeLauter RF/DH
  4. Ramos DH/RF
  5. Bazzana 2B
  6. Angel Martinez LF
  7. Brayan Rocchio SS
  8. Patrick Bailey C
  9. Kyle Manzardo/Rhys Hoskins 1B (I’m frustrated with them today, ok?).

Let me know what you think in the comments below!

Braves Minor League Recap: Smith-Shawver Steller for Stripers

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - MAY 29: AJ Smith-Shawver #32 of the Atlanta Braves throws a pitch in the bottom of the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies during game one of a doubleheader at Citizens Bank Park on May 29, 2025 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The Gwinnett Stripers are more rehab than roster at this point, and we’re thankful for that as it gives us the chance to talk about our old friends again. AJ Smith-Shawver had a terrific outing for Gwinnett and looked strong through 86 pitches, holding his upper-90’s velocity deep into the game. Ronald Acuna Jr. also played the full game, though it is fair to mention it was only five innings as weather made an impact on a few games at the minor league level on Thursday. Down in Augusta Conor Essenburg and Alex Lodise went deep, with that being home run number 20 on the season for Lodise. Then Ethan Bagwell was incredible for Rome and gave them seven strikeouts over 5 2/3 innings in his fourth High-A start.

(50-47) Gwinnett Stripers 4, (42-54) Iowa Cubs 2

Box Score

Statcast

  • Ronald Acuna Jr., DH: 0-2, BB, .250/.350/.250
  • Ha-Seong Kim: 0-2, 2 BB, .256/.370/.359
  • Patrick Clohisy: 2-3, .567/.594/1.000
  • AJ Smith-Shawver, SP: 4 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 1.69 ERA

The Stripers only got five innings in the books on Thursday night, but that’s enough for an official game and an official win behind a solid outing from AJ Smith-Shawver. Smith-Shawver had most of the hallmarks of a perfect rehab outing. His velocity was terrific, averaging 97.5 mph on his fastball over his four innings, he had success with four scoreless innings, and he was able to throw plenty of strikes. Still, it wasn’t perfect and his command of his secondary pitches held him back significantly. Smith-Shawver’s fastball was hitting its spots and he got ahead of most hitters, but it took 86 pitches to get through four innings because he just could not locate any of his secondary pitches. His slider was a non-factor throughout the outing as he was mostly missing too far out of the strike zone to get swings, and he left his splitter over the plate quite often. He got away with that location in this outing, but that is not a recipe for success once he gets back to the major leagues. Still this is the best he has looked during his rehab when you take all of the components together, and his command wasn’t that far behind what was Smith-Shawver’s baseline location issues. His velocity was consistent throughout the game, which is a huge milestone as fatigue has been a factor for him in prior outings, and he was largely consistent with his mechanics. He might need another start in Triple-A to iron things out, but with him holding his velocity deep into games and Atlanta’s need for arms it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Braves asked him to make those final adjustments under the watchful eye of Jeremy Hefner.

I wish we had an equally impressive day from Ronald Acuna Jr. to talk about, but he went hitless with his only contact being a routine ground out on a pitch he probably should have crushed, and rain cut short his day after just three plate appearances. He and Ha-Seong Kim drew back-to-back walks in the Stripers three-run second inning, but neither were involved in any of that run scoring as they were stranded on the bases. Kim drew a couple of walks and had a pop to the right side in his other plate appearance. The Stripers contributions at the plate mostly came from the bottom half of the order, and of course Patrick Clohisy had to have his name in that hat. Clohisy led off in the second inning with a sharp grounder that the shortstop go to but had no chance on against Clohisy’s speed. On the next pitch Andrew McCutchen snuck one through the right side that Clohisy easily advanced around to third on, and Jose Azocar tied up the game with the third straight hit to open the inning. Aaron Schunk had the biggest Stripers hit of the game when he gapped one to score both baserunners, and that early 3-1 lead was enough for them to hold onto behind Smith-Shawver. Clohisy has now hit in eight straight games to start his Gwinnett career with multiple hits in six of those, and on the bases he added a stolen base this game. He is 6-6 on stolen bases since being called up and has pulled within one of Tate Southisene for the system lead.

Swing and Misses

AJ Smith-Shawver – 8

Anthony Molina – 2

(42-45) Columbus Clingstones 3, (48-43) Pensacola Blue Wahoos 4

Box Score

  • Luke Waddell, SS: 1-4, 2B, .208/.307/.319
  • Jordan Groshans, 3B: 1-4, RBI, .260/.336/.528
  • Ian Mejia, SP: 5 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 9.17 ERA
  • Luis Vargas, RP: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 4.43 ERA

(42-46) Columbus Clingstones 0, (49-43) Pensacola Blue Wahoos 1

Box Score

  • Luke Waddell, SS: 0-4, .208/.3o7/.319
  • Jordan Groshans, 3B: 1-3, BB, .260/.336/.528
  • Anderson Pilar, SP: 2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 6.23 ERA

Two games are better than one, unless you can’t hit. It was a rough set of games for Columbus, despite a late comeback effort in the opener, and this team has been awful at the plate in the second half. They have by far the best run prevention in the league in the second half, allowing a full run per game less than the next-best team, but they also have the worst offense in that span and games like these are why they are just hovering around .500. Ian Mejia could not get it done in the first inning of the opener, allowing a leadoff home run then a series of singles that charged three runs to him before he escaped. Mejia looked solid for most of the game, throwing his typical amount of strikes and working efficiently through the lineup, but the first inning blues followed the team until the end. In the third inning Luke Waddell had a double and scored a run on a Jordan Groshans single, but on the double from Waddell, Keshawn Ogans made a critical out getting thrown out at home and that run ended up being one of many pivotal game one moments. Two walks with one out set up the Clingstones in position to make a charge in the top of the sixth inning, and Kevin Kilpatrick Jr. served a liner to right field for a base hit that would chase a run home and give them the tying run on first base. Matt Scannell delivered a huge hit, hitting a deep fly ball to right field that the defender jumped and snagged but saw pop out of his glove, and that scored a run and put the tying and go-ahead runs in scoring position. Unfortunately Tyler Tolve followed with a huge strikeout and Ogans grounded out to end the only major threat of either game.

Game two was sort of a snooze-fest for the Columbus offense. Groshans had another solid game with a first inning double and a walk, but no one else reached base multiple times and the team always found a way to strike out when they got runners in scoring position. Adam Zebrowski led off in the seventh inning with a pinch hit single, and a Kilpatrick walk gave them hope, but the inning when south in a hurry. Dalton McIntyre tried to lay down a bunt, and to be fair he is one of the players on the team who can do so, but he popped it up to third base. Luke Waddell followed that up with a strikeout, and Groshans popped up to shallow right field to snuff the game out. The bullpen held together nicely, especially Isaac Gallegos who pitched three scoreless innings and struck out four batters. Gallegos continues to have an impressive minor breakout in the bullpen, and has maintained his strikeout and whiff rates even with the jump to Double-A. Gallegos’s stuff was always this good but he’s really leaned into his slider as a weapon and it’s a pitch that I think will get him to the major leagues at some point in a middle relief role, though he’s likely more of a shuttle arm between Triple-A and the major leagues than a guy who carves out a long career, though he has value as a mop up multi-inning arm.

Swing and Misses

Ian Mejia – 8

Anderson Pilar – 7

Isaac Gallegos – 5

Tyler LaPorte – 4

Luis Vargas – 1

(43-46) Rome Emperors 1, (56-33) Frederick Keys 1 SUSPENDED

Box Score

  • Tate Southisene, SS: 1-3, .248/.378/.436
  • John Gil, 2B: 0-2, .244/.339/.376
  • Eric Hartman, CF: 1-2, .271, .358/.527
  • Ethan Bagwell, SP: 5.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K, 2.53 ERA

Ethan Bagwell fans rejoice as his breakout season got back on track with an incredible outing, one that has a strong argument to be his best all season. Bagwell was commanding his fastball from the first pitch of the game, and Frederick couldn’t get a solid hit on it even with six innings to work with. Bagwell had a bit of trouble locating his slider in the first couple of innings of this game, but once he found that pitch it was game over and he didn’t really have any trouble spots throughout the game. The progression of his slider to a pitch that can get whiffs has been massive for him and driven this breakout campaign, though underlying issues still need to be solved. Namely he just needs to get a better changeup that he can really lean on against left-handed hitters because he has been getting crushed by them this season. Right handed batters have an OPS of just .389 against Bagwell, and I want to repeat that number is OPS. Left-handed hitters, however, have a .780 OPS, and all of Bagwell’s home runs allowed have been to left handed batters. His strikeout splits are 33.8% vs 18.3% and his walk splits are 2.7% vs 10.6%, and while samples this small are not enough for these numbers to regulate (and the difference isn’t that massive in reality) the issue still tracks with watching him approach hitters on the field. Some of this could just be a developmental approach for the Braves as a lot of their fastball/slider guys don’t see a ton of changeup usage until Double-A, but so far he has been trying to use sliders to get lefties out late in counts and it isn’t really working for him. Bagwell is young and athletic and has shown flashes of a competent changeup so this isn’t a doomsday prophecy for him, but developing a third pitch is of utmost importance for him moving forward because even at the lower levels he is already running into problems with getting opposite-handed guys out.

The Rome offense was stagnant in this game, and it prevented them from having an opportunity to win a shortened contest. Eric Hartman stroked a single in the first inning that went to waste when he got picked off, and over the next five innings the Emperors only produced one more hit. That hit ended up being enough for them to at least salvage a suspended game. Tate Southisene led off in the fourth by slapping a single into right field, though he wouldn’t score the run. John Gil hit a sharp grounder over to third base, and for some reason the third baseman thought he had plenty of time to double clutch a throw to second base and that delay along with a low throw to second meant Gil easily beat out the potential double play. Gil then continued to use his speed. Even with the perfect pitch to throw Gil out on he easily beat a throw to second base for his 40th stolen base of the season. The next pitch bounced in and out of the catcher’s mitt, and Gil pressed a throw to third base that sailed left and into the outfield which allowed Gil to come home for the tying run.

Swing and Misses 

Ethan Bagwell – 11

Drew Christo – 3

(50-43) Augusta GreenJackets 7, (40-52) Salem RidgeYaks 8

Box Score

  • Luis Guanipa, CF: 0-6, .298/.353/.450
  • Conor Essenburg, RF: 2-3, HR, 2 BB, .257/.405/.471
  • Alex Lodise, SS: 1-4, HR, BB, 2 RBI, .256/.340/.482
  • Landon Beidelschies, SP: 4 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 7.09 ERA

It took until the bottom of the page but now I have a little bit of offensive action to talk about. Conor Essenburg and Alex Lodise were locked in at the plate in this game, though their contributions weren’t quite enough to get the GreenJackets a win. Perhaps they would have been but it was and awful 0-6 day at the plate for Luis Guanipa, whose batting average dropped below .300 for the first time since early May. Essenburg led off in the fifth inning of a then 2-1 ballgame with a walk, and the floodgates for both sides opened. Lodise made it an even 20 home runs of the season with a no-doubt shot to left field, briefly giving the GreenJackets a 3-2 lead in the game. That didn’t last particularly long as the bullpen gave up the lead in the bottom of the inning and kept allowing Salem to extend it, making this the only point for the rest of the day Augusta would have the lead. For Essenburg that walk gave him 10 straight games with a walk, and despite his high strikeout rates he has more walks than strikeouts and a .438 OBP this month. Two innings later it was Essenburg getting all of a ball. The Salem pitcher left a slider right over the middle of the plate and up and Essenburg hit a and absolute moonshot. No one on either side besides Essenburg even bothered to move from the crack of the bat, and I can only hope they give baseballs passports because it’s probably not in US airspace anymore. We’ve seen guys like Essenburg fail in the past due to contact issues, but it’s increasingly hard to not go all-in on him. He’s advanced at the plate, he doesn’t really expand the zone the way a lot of high-strikeout guys do, and the ball comes off of his bat in the way reserved for some of the best power hitters in the game.

It has been tough sledding for Landon Beidelschies this entire season, but lately he has produced his two best outings of the season and he is starting to find footing to get outs. Beidelschies is making much better pitches with his fastball and mixing in his slider better and we’re seeing an increase in swing-and-miss and fewer deep counts and walks. Beidelschies really has to be perfect with his pitches because he doesn’t have the velocity to get guys out consistently with his fastball, and while he hasn’t been perfect he has been a lot better lately and it’s allowing him to get into his slider and changeup which are both able to flash average potential. Beidelschies still had a lot of traffic throughout this outing and the amount of hard contact he gives up on fastballs over the plate is concerning, however it’s the progress we’re looking at and Beidelschies is in his best stretch of the season. He is starting to show some signs of being a guy who can advance through the system rather than stalling at the lower levels, though the command is still far from where it needs to be for him to find success even in High-A. Professional hitters at all levels are capable of hitting low 90’s in the middle of the strike zone and Beidelschies isn’t going to survive if that continues to be a trend.

Swing and Misses

Landon Beidelschies – 14

Adiel Melendez – 4