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Our NBA player prop projections are back for tonight’s primetime showdown, and the model has highlighted a few plays that really stand out.

We crunched the numbers, matched our projections against the market, and zeroed in on the spots with real value.

For these Lakers vs. Suns predictions, it’s not guesswork — it’s data-driven.

If you’re putting together your card, these are the NBA picks the model likes most for Thursday, February 26.

Lakers vs Suns computer picks for February 26

Lakers	Suns
Reaves o19.5 points -120	Green u20.5 points +102
Ayton o7.5 rebounds +100	Gillespie o3.5 3-pointers +110
Doncic u7.5 assists +100	O'Neale o4.5 rebounds  +102

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Lakers computer picks

Austin Reaves Over 19.5 points (-120)

Projection: 20.4 points

Even though Austin Reaves has gone Over 19.5 points in just two of his last 10 games, the offensive environment still helps his outlook. The Los Angeles Lakers have averaged a strong 119.0 points per game on the road over their last five, the ninth-highest mark in the league.

Meanwhile, opposing starting shooting guards have been getting to the line consistently against the Phoenix Suns, averaging 3.4 free-throw attempts per game over the last 10 — a trend that opens the door for extra scoring opportunities.

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Deandre Ayton Over 7.5 rebounds (+100)

Projection: 8.6 rebounds

Deandre Ayton has cleared the 7.5 rebounds line in four of his last 10, and this matchup gives him a real chance to build on that. 

Facing the Suns sets up well for volume on the glass. Phoenix’s offensive style leans on perimeter shooting and mid-range looks, which naturally creates more rebound chances for opposing bigs when shots don’t fall.

That means Ayton should have consistent opportunities to clean up misses on the defensive end.

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Luka Doncic Under 7.5 assists (+100)

Projection: 7.5 assists

Although Luka Dončić has gone Over this 7.5 assists line in six of his last 10 games, the pace setup isn’t doing him many favors tonight.

The Lakers have been the eighth-slowest visiting team in the NBA this season, and the Suns have played at the most sluggish tempo in the league over their last five games — a combination that should lead to fewer possessions and fewer playmaking opportunities overall.

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Suns computer picks

Jalen Green Under 20.5 points (+102)

Projection: 20.1 points

From a scoring standpoint, the Suns have struggled at home, averaging just 108.5 points per game over their last 20 — the lowest mark in the league in that span.

On the other side, opposing starting shooting guards have averaged only 11.7 field-goal attempts per game against the Lakers this season, the sixth-fewest in the NBA. 

That makes this a tough spot for Jalen Green, who has gone Under 20.5 points in nine of his last 10 games.

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Collin Gillespie Over 3.5 3-pointers (+110)

Projection: 4.0 3-pointers

With the Suns leading the league in offensive rebounding over the last five games, those extra possessions can create more scoring chances and provide a boost for Collin Gillespie, who has gone Over this three-point line in three of his last 10.

span style="font-size: 14px;"🔥/span spanBet gILLESPIE Now at bet365!/span

Royce O'Neale Over 4.5 rebounds (+102)

Projection: 5.1 rebounds

As mentioned, the Suns have seen a surge in offensive rebounding over the past few games, and Royce O'Neale has been a big part of that push.

After clearing the 4.5 rebounds line in five of his last 10, he’s in a good spot to keep contributing on the glass.

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How to watch Lakers vs Suns tonight

Location	Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ
Date	Thursday, February 26, 2026
Tip-off	9:00 p.m. ET
TV	Spectrum SportsNet, AZFS

Not intended for use in MA.
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It’s a jam-packed night of NBA action with 10 games on the schedule, and I’ve sorted through the NBA odds to bring you my favorite player props.

They include plays for a couple of red-hot shooters, the Hornets Kon Knueppel and the Timberwolves Anthony Edwards.

Those and more NBA picks for Thursday, February 26 below.

Best NBA player props today

Player	Pick
Kon Knueppel	Over 18.5 Points	-105
Marvin Bagley III	Double-double	+145
Anthony Edwards	Over 3.5 Threes Made	-120

Prop #1: Kon Knueppel Over 18.5 Points

-105 at bet365

The buzz around the Charlotte Hornets is for real, and Kon Kneuppel is a big reason why.

The Hornets' rookie is in one of those shooting rhythms he was known for at Duke, and I’m betting he stays hot against the Indiana Pacers. Knueppel is putting up 22.8 points while shooting 50% from 3-point range over his last eight games.

At this point, everyone knows the Pacers’ struggles, and they rank 23rd in opponent effective field goal percentage.

Knueppel has topped this number in six of his last eight games, and in both matchups against the Pacers this season.

• Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: FanDuel Sports Network Southeast-Charlotte, FanDuel Sports Network Indiana

Prop #2: Marvin Bagley III Double-double

+145 at bet365

With the seemingly endless injuries for the Dallas Mavericks, they have started to give Marvin Bagley III a run, and he’s making the most of it.

The veteran big man has put up 15, 12, and 22 points in his last three games while averaging 9.7 rebounds, and tonight, Bagley gets a juicy matchup against the Sacramento Kings.

With Domantas Sabonis out, the Kings have basically no interior presence. Sacramento ranks 28th in both rebounding rate and opponent points in the paint per game.

At this price, I love Bagley to record his third double-double in his last four games.

• Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCSCA, KFAA

Prop #3: Anthony Edwards Over 3.5 Threes Made

-120 at bet365

Anthony Edwards returns to the site of his All-Star Game MVP performance when the Minnesota Timberwolves visit the Los Angeles Clippers.

Edwards has carried that momentum into the second half, averaging 34 points and shooting 38.3% from three-point range, and I like him to keep cooking the Clippers.

Los Angeles is a little banged up heading into this matchup. Darius Garland is still out, and Kawhi Leonard and John Collins are both questionable, and the Clippers already struggled defending the perimeter.

L.A. ranks 25th in opponent three-point shooting percentage, and Ant has drained four or more threes in four of his last five games overall.

• Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Prime Video

These props are available now at bet365, one of our best betting sites.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

More of the same. The Brooklyn Nets came home following a three game road trip to take on the Dallas Mavericks. Brooklyn lost their fifth game in a row as the Mavs came away with a 123-114 win. In the race that most everyone cares about, the Nets are third. Either way, these games will draw plenty of interest down the stretch.

The opponent tonight is the hottest team in the NBA. If everything holds up, the San Antonio Spurs will have homecourt advantage in a playoff series for the first time in a decade once the NBA playoffs start this spring. They’ve been on a huge tear recently and pushed their winning streak up to ten games with a gritty win over the Toronto Raptors last night. The Spurs are now two games behind the Oklahoma City Thunder for the one seed and best record in the NBA. Wow.

Where to follow the game

YES Network on TV. WFAN on radio. Gotham Sports on streaming. Tip after 7:30 PM.

Injuries

All clear for the Nets. This is the third time in the past eight games that the Nets have had a clean injury slate. Also, it’s possible that we will see Josh Minott, the 6’8” 3-and-D candidate acquired from Boston at the deadline make his Nets debut. He’s been with Long Island along with Ben Saraf who’s staying out in Uniondale for this one, as are the Nets three two-ways.

Mason Plumlee is out.

The game

San Antonio won the first meeting back in October.

The Spurs are on the back end of a back-to-back while the Nets are on the front end of a back-to-back. As the beat of the NBA season rolls on.

Egor Dёmin is working through a slump. He’s shot under 40 percent from the field in six out of the last eight games, and the stress of the NBA season is starting to take its toll. He recently spoke about the transition to the NBA and gave some interesting answers:

“This is something I’m really trying to focus on a lot, just trying to get better at this, from the standpoint of toughness: mental, more than physical, because the physical part. I can’t really do more than I’m able, than my ability. So this is something I’m working on in the lifting room; trying to get stronger, looking at my nutrition.

“[The trainers] make my body stronger. But right now, it’s really about my mental, physicality, where I can resist every single player on the court. And I’m looking for that state of mind where, ‘No, I’m not going to step away from you,’ which obviously it happens sometimes. Sometimes it’s not as good. And that’s a process.”

He’ll get a great test against De’Aaron Fox. Fox missed the first meeting between these two teams. He’s been terrific for the Spurs and as usual, is hell on wheels getting to the rim. He’s one of the league leaders in drives and is shooting 70 percent on shots inside of three feet. Being able to consistently break defenders down off the dribble and create great shots on the inside takes on even more importance in postseason settings, and Fox is eager to get back into the playoffs to showcase what he can do.

Michael Porter Jr mentioned rebounding in postgame on Tuesday, and if the Nets want to pull off the upset, they’re going to need to be better on that end. They’ve been outrebounded in each of their past four games and by double-digits in three of them. The Spurs are seventh in the league in rebounds, but with this being the second leg of the b2b, maybe they’ll be a bit more tired than usual. The Nets need all the help they can get if they want to get back in the win column.

Player to watch: Victor Wembanyama

So technically, Victor is in a slump. The big guy has shot 9-of-28 over the past two games. However, when you do everything else well, you can live with some misses from the field. He’s blocked at least four shots in four consecutive games and is on track to do that again tonight. Even when he’s not obliterating teams on offense, his mere presence presents matchup nightmares for opponents and creates a myriad of challenges. From Jeje Gomez of Pounding the Rock:

The opponents will make adjustments, but as you said, they can only do so much. If they sell out trying to stop Wemby, we now know that the Spurs can simply play through Wemby by using his gravity instead of giving him the ball, which makes a lot of counters simply obsolete. The bigger question is whether the supporting cast can consistently deliver as they did against the Pistons. The ball handlers should be fine. The room to drive was always there, and all three see it. We are well past the stage when only Tre Jones realized that the entire defense was geared toward stopping Wemby. The shooters are the potential issue, but the fact that they were all ready to fire away or move the ball is a good sign.

This team is coming together at an insane speed. There’s a lot of room for growth, which is crazy to say of a group that might end up with the best record in the West, but it’s so fun to watch it happen in real time. The Pistons game really seemed like a breakthrough moment, and even if Victor occasionally goes back to forcing things at times, I do believe he understands that he can have a massive positive effect without having to drop 30 by driving into traffic and hitting off-balance shots. I’m excited to see if they can continue to have these mini leaps before the playoffs, because if they do, we might enjoy a deep playoff run sooner than expected.

For a lot of the Spurs, this represents their first real crack at contention. It’ll be exciting to see how they continue to build from here.

Nic Claxton will have his hands full.

From the Vault

Ric Flair turned 77 years old yesterday. Let’s revisit two of the Nature Boy’s greatest matches

More reading: Pounding the Rock, SB Nation NBA, New York Post, New York Daily News, Clutch Points, Nets Wire, Steve’s Newsletter

• Brooklyn Nets Game Notes – Brooklyn Nets
• San Antonio Spurs Game Notes – San Antonio Spurs
• San Antonio plays Brooklyn on 10-game win streak – AP
• Michael Porter Jr.’s four-game dip doesn’t rewrite season with Nets ($) – C.J. Holmes – New York Daily News

The Dallas Mavericks (21–36, 11–11 Home) host the Sacramento Kings (13–46, 4–27 Away) on Thursday night in a matchup that should, on paper, favor the home team. Sacramento limps into town on the second night of a back-to-back, sporting the worst record in the league and a decimated roster. Dallas, meanwhile, is riding a two-game win streak despite missing key rotation pieces—proof that this team competes every night, even when the math says they shouldn’t.

Let’s scan the lines in search of value.

🏀 Fixture: Sacramento Kings (13–46, 4–27 Away) @ Dallas Mavericks (21–36, 11–11 Home)
📍 American Airlines Center — Dallas, TX
🕢 7:30 PM CST, February 26, 2026
📺 KFAA-TV / MavsTV / NBA App

📊 DraftKings Snapshot (as of 7:00 PM CST, Feb 26)
Spread: DAL -6.5 (–110) | SAC +6.5 (–105)
Total: 234.5 (O –110 / U –110)
Moneyline: DAL –270 | SAC +220

📉 Game Side Lean: Mavericks -6.5

Here’s the thing about this Mavericks team: they don’t quit. They show up to every game with the kind of pride that makes you wonder if anyone told them they’re supposed to be tanking. No Cooper Flagg (midfoot sprain). No P.J. Washington (ankle sprain, just happened Tuesday). No problem. They beat Indiana 134–130. They handled Brooklyn 123–114. They’re not rolling over for anyone.

The problem? They’re bringing a dagger to a sword fight every night.

Against the Celtics, Spurs, Lakers—teams with actual rosters—that dagger keeps them competitive but rarely gets them the win. Against Sacramento? The worst team in the league, on a back-to-back, with four road wins all season? The dagger might be enough.

Marvin Bagley III has been an absolute revelation since arriving in the Anthony Davis trade. He dropped 22 points in 20 minutes against Brooklyn. He’s averaging 13.0 points and 8.2 rebounds in five games with Dallas. The Kings have no noteworthy interior defense with Domantas Sabonis out for the year. Bagley should feast.

Klay Thompson remains the primary perimeter threat, and Sacramento’s 120.1 defensive rating (near-worst in the league) suggests he’ll have plenty of open looks. The Mavs are 11–11 at home for a reason—they protect the American Airlines Center even when they shouldn’t.

Dallas covers. Lottery-conscious fans rage-tweet into the void. The tank rolls backward.

🔮 Total Lean: Over 234.5

Both teams are running on fumes, but neither can defend. Sacramento allows 36.5% from three and posts a 120.1 defensive rating. Dallas has been scrappy on defense lately, but without Flagg and P.J. Washington, they’re leaking points in transition.

The Mavs shot 39.3% from three against Indiana and 34.8% against Brooklyn. Even in a slump, they found enough offense to put up 134 and 123 in those games. Sacramento’s back-to-back fatigue won’t stop them from running—they have nothing to lose and a lottery position to protect by losing.

This feels like an up-and-down game. Bagley gets his. Klay gets his. Sacramento’s role players (whoever’s healthy) chuck threes and pray. The math points over, even if the pace shouldn’t.

🎯 Player Props We Like

Maxime Raynaud Over 13.5 Points (–128)

Raynaud has been a steady contributor for Sacramento in limited opportunities, and with the Kings decimated by injuries (Sabonis, LaVine, Hunter all out for the season), someone has to score. Dallas has been leaking points in the paint without Flagg and P.J. Washington anchoring the defense, and Raynaud’s ability to finish around the rim should give him opportunities. He’s averaging 10.1 points per game on the season, but usage bumps when rotations thin out. On a back-to-back with no better options, Sacramento will feed him the ball. The line feels a touch high, but the matchup is right.

Marvin Bagley III Over 8.5 Rebounds (–109)

Bagley has been a rebounding machine since arriving in Dallas, averaging 8.2 boards in five games while playing just 23 minutes per night. Against Brooklyn, he grabbed five rebounds in 20 minutes. Against Indiana, he pulled down 11. Against Minnesota, 13. The Kings have no interior presence with Sabonis out, and Bagley’s been feasting on the offensive glass. Sacramento allows opponents to crash the boards at will, and with Flagg and P.J. Washington sidelined, Bagley’s usage and minutes should stay elevated. This feels like a clean over in a game where both teams will be trading misses.

After the Celtics took a slim 67-66 lead with just under two minutes left in the third quarter against the Denver Nuggets Wednesday night, the wheels fell off. 

The Nuggets ended the third on a 11-0 run, which bled into the fourth and helped them run away with a 103-84 win to break Boston’s four-game win streak. 

The Celtics struggled to find the bottom of the net, shooting 35% from the field and 28% from the 3-point line, and combined with 14 turnovers, the Nuggets were able to get out in space with 14 points off said turnovers along with 14 off fast breaks. 

“I think that’s how their best offense was, in transition, so we’ve got to do a better job offensively. It’d help if we made a couple shots,” Derrick White told reporters after the game. 

Boston has committed more than their league-best 12 turnovers per game in both matchups with the Nuggets, losing the ball 14 times in both contests. Joe Mazzulla said on a given night, 10-15 possessions can be looked at as chances for better execution. Against Denver, it felt closer to 30. 

“You have to give them credit, they were physical at the point of attack,” Mazzulla said. 

Mazzulla emphasized misread rim-reads, live-ball turnovers and, simply, misses on open looks for creating that transition advantage for Denver. During their third quarter run, missed layups from Jaylen Brown and Nikola Vucevic sparked fast break opportunities. On Brown’s miss, only Vooch was left back to defend as Denver looked like a team practicing a three man weave. 

When Vucevic couldn’t convert on a drive past Nikola Jokic, Denver’s pace created a two-on-one for Spencer Jones to take advantage of. And to close out the quarter, an errant Brown pass into the backcourt allowed KJ Simpson a free swing at an uncontested dunk. 

“We had a tough time tonight converting,” Brown said. “I thought we had a lot of great looks, open catch-and-shoots, and we just didn’t convert.”

Boston made just five of their 19 3-point attempts in the second half, including four wide-open misses created by the team’s ball movement. 

Ending their four-game west coast trip on a back-to-back, the Celtics return home for their next two games against Brooklyn and Philadelphia, where coach Mazzulla can get a sense of the team’s response from their first true off night since the All-Star Break. 

“We’ll see how we approach our preparation for our next game, and that will dictate how well we’ve handled today,” Mazzulla said. 

Mazzulla has remained even-keeled throughout the team’s recent highs of the road trip, and that remained constant even in a low point. How they respond against Brooklyn on Friday will tell the story of this group’s response to this 19-point loss. 

“The story’s not done,” he said after their Lakers win on Sunday. “We are only a product of what we do tomorrow, what we do the next day, and that’s just the story.”

“And if we would have lost this game by 1, tomorrow’s film session has to be as detailed and as disciplined as it is going to be with the result that we had. And so that’s the story. It’s not done yet, and we haven’t done anything.”