Category: Sports News

The NCAA baseball tournament kicks off today. In between Braves games, let’s watch your school play and get to know some potential draft picks. The ones on our watch list are gonna sign and in some cases paid handsomely. The Braves have the eighth highest draft pool next July. So why not join Atlanta and call Truist home? If you’re not familiar, this weekend there will be 16 double elimination regionals. The seeded/hosting teams are all a good watch, and we’ll lay out who to watch here.

Los Angeles Regional

Who to watch: Roman Martin, UCLA

Martin is a 6’2” third baseman with UCLA who will likely be listed as a shortstop on MLB boards, He has a .336/.452/.536 line and 7 homers in 56 college games. The top-ranked Bruins are coming off a Big Ten Tournament Championship win over Oregon, mainly because college football doesn’t own a globe. He’s #63 on Baseball America’s board. The word on Martin is that he crushes the fastball, but not so much the secondaries.

Morgantown Regional

Who to watch: Tyler Bell, Kentucky

Tyler Bell is a shortstop that was already drafted in the second round. Baseball America has him at #15, while MLB’s list has him #4. The USA team veteran has played all over the infield. He’s a switchhitter with power. The only downside is that while he does everything well, he is not elite right now in any of them. No matter, bar a disaster he’ll make it to the Show. 

Hattiesburg Regional

Who to watch for: Eric Becker and AJ Gracia, Virginia

Eric Becker is a shortstop (that will be a pattern here) who has also played with Team USA. The tall lefty has a career 1.053 OPS and 24 home runs. Baseball America has him #22. AJ Gracia is a lefty outfielder with some pop as well. 43 career home runs, 1.032 OPS, and a 150/125 BB/K rate. Baseball America has him #10, which might be right in that sweet spot for the Braves.

Chapel Hill Regional

Who to watch: Tegan Kuhns, Tennessee

Per Baseball America: “Kuhns has a fastball that averages 94 mph and has been up to 98 with the physical projection to expect more velocity in the future. He has a high-spin curveball in the 78-82 mph range that eclipses 3,000 rpm at its best, and he will also mix in a low-80s slider, a cutter around 90 mph and a mid-80s changeup.“

College Station Regional

Who to watch: Gavin Grahovac, Chris Hacopian, and Caden Sorrell, Texas A&M; Mason Edwards, USC

Texas A&M have a loaded roster with Baseball America’s #6 Hacopian, #17 Sorrell, and #43 Grahovac. Chris Hacopian has played all over the diamond and might have one of the more impressive resumes. He crushed at Maryland, played two good summer league seasons, and finished up at Texas A&M with a .938 OPS. Caden Sorrell is an athletic lefty outfielder with power to all fields. Gavin Grahovac plays first base and is coming off shoulder surgery last season. He’s answered any power questions with a 1.141 OPS and 23 home runs. Mason Edwards is a thin lefty pitcher with a microscopic 1.43 ERA in 15 games. Nearly two-thirds of his outs come by strikeout. His fastball sits 91-93 and touches 96.

Lincoln Regional

Who to watch: Cade Townsend, Ole Miss

Cade Townsend sports 5 decent pitches. The big one is the fastball, which sits 95-96 MPH and reaches 98. Cade has a 4,76 K/SO rate in the SEC.

Auburn Regional

We aren’t tracking anybody here for now. But that’s only for now.

Atlanta Regional

Who to watch for: Drew Burress and Alex Hernandez from GeorgiaTech. Brendan Brock from Oklahoma

Do you know anybody that likes home runs? The Braves, you say? Atlanta has the eight biggest pool and Baseball likes Drew Burress, an outfielder for Georgia Tech, as their eighth best. And he has 58 of them and a career 1.208 OPS in the tough ACC.

Alex Hernandez is a second baseman and outfielder in his 20 year old season and already has a season of summer league ball. He’s another collegian sporting a 1.000+ OPS. He feels like a John Gil type. Brendan Brock is a catcher with wheels and a very good bat.

Lawrence Regional

Who to watch: Brady Ballinger, Kansas; Ryder Helfrick and Hunter Dietz, Arkansas

The Braves have the ninth pick, and Baseball America like Ryder Helfrick at seven. Helfrick is a strong guy with pull-side power potential. The contact skills are a work in progress, but at 34 career homers and a .945 OPS the power is there.

Hunter Dietz is a massive lefty pitcher at 6-6. Dietz touches 98 MPH on the fastball and 80 MPH on the curve. Whoa. If the Braves want late first round pitching, this might be their guy. Brady Ballinger is a first baseman who came out of the JUCO ranks, but blossomed at Kansas. He has power and a great eye.

Tallahassee Regional

Who to watch: Coastal Carolina, Cam Flukey

Cameron Flukey is Baseball America’s #4. Let’s talk about him anyway. Flukey is a 6-6 righty with an excellent arsenal already. Per BA: He averaged 95 mph with his fastball and touched 98 while showing above-average riding life. Flukey did an excellent job attacking the zone with his fastball, which helped him cut his walk rate significantly. He throws two breaking balls: a mid-70s curveball with 12-to-6 shape and a mid-80s gyro slider that gets increased usage against righties. Flukey also mixes in an occasional mid-80s changeup vs. lefties. With improved command, a projectable frame and a deep four-pitch mix, Flukey profiles as a first-round talent with a chance to be one of the first arms off the board.“ Well, if you want near-ready pitching talent.

Tuscaloosa Regional

Who to watch: Justin Lebron, Alabama

Justin Lebron is a shortstop with defensive skills and power. Lebron hit 44 home runs and an a .982 OPS in the difficult SEC. BA feels that he is a plus defender.

Austin Regional

Who to watch: Carson Tinney, Ethan Mendoza, and Aiden Robbins; Texas

Aiden Robbins is an outfielder with a 1.076 OPS at Texas. He also hit over .300 in the summer leagues. Carson Tinney is a massive catcher with 40 home runs and a 1.157 OPS at Texas. He should have the skills to stick at catcher. Mendoza is an interesting late round middle infielder.

Eugene Regional

Nobody yet. Watch some old PAC rivalries though.

Starkville Regional

Who to watch: Ace Reese

Reese is a third baseman in the SEC and USA squad. He has a MLB build already and 48 homers and a 1.067 OPS to back it up. BA likes him at #11, putting him right in that Braves first round pick zone.

Athens Regional

Who to watch: Daniel Jackson, Georgia

Daniel Jackson plays catcher, but also plays elsewhere. He appeared in 45 games with 36 starts at five different positions (12-C, 10-RF, 8-DH, 4-LF, 2-1B) as a sophomore. Jackson has been thermonuclear for the Bulldogs, with 27 home runs this season alone and a .391 average.

Gee, winning for the 31st time sure was a lot easier than winning for the 30th time turned out to be. It took 11 tries to win number 30. But then the Cubs came right back and won their 31st, despite the immensely talented Paul Skenes being in their way. I love this for so many reasons. Obviously, winning is always more fun than losing. I love that there was such a dread that the team needed to win in that 11th try because it was a foregone conclusion that the 12th was going to be a loss. I love because I’d had this one in my head as soon as I saw the matchups. The May 1 Colin Rea over Skenes win in 2025 was memorable for me because I dropped my daughter off at an airport that day. I listened to the game in the car, at a McDonald’s and on the road. I knew. I knew this one wasn’t set in stone.

The Cubs had a number of hitting stars in the game, but unsurprisingly, the brightest star on this night in Pittsburgh was Ian Happ. Ian remains the most polarizing Cub I can think of. I will again say that Happ belongs in the middle of the lineup because he has unquestionably been the Cubs’ most productive hitter this season. Michael Busch was their most productive hitter in 2025, with a nod to extensive split protection. He’s been their most productive hitter in May and so I’m totally fine with him sitting in the third spot in the order. But none of that diminishes that Happ remains their most productive hitter year to date.

Happ had another huge series against an NL Central foe. That’s been the calling card of his career. He has a long history of tormenting his division mates. Ignoring the A’s, who he has only 54 plate appearances against (with a .985 OPS), his three highest OPS are against the Pirates (.953), Reds (.946) and Cardinals (.905). The Brewers have held him to .767, just a bit below his career mark of .789. Happ is best in the games that matter most during the regular season. Those games against his division foes. That’s not a bad thing.

With two singles and a homer, Ian’s OBP and SLG are both above his career averages. All of these years after Moneyball, we still have to occasionally remind people that though batting average may be underrated in the modern game, it is not mandatory for being a productive hitter. I’m going to say this for all of the remaining 105 games of the regular season and however many postseason games this team plays in. As long as Ian is on this team, he belongs in left field the overwhelming majority of the games. Everyone should get days off and fortunately this team has decent depth. But this team is best with Ian on the field. I can certainly see a path forward in 2027 that doesn’t include Ian on the Cubs, but while he’s here he should play. Also know that even those paths forward without Ian in 2027 don’t necessarily make the team better.

My other note in this game is: Once again, the high leverage situations really didn’t materialize. Without looking at exactly how Baseball Reference sets the baskets relative to leverage stats, we generally think of them as late in a close game. Myself, I think of the sixth and the seventh as medium leverage and the eighth and ninth as high leverage and then adjust upward or downward based upon the score. The Cubs briefly had a 3-0 lead, threatened to give that away before escaping 3-2. The seventh inning was arguably a high leverage situation, definitely at least medium with a one run lead. Then the Cubs scored three in the eighth and blew it open.

The Cubs have just 10 saves in 57 games. That places them in a tie for 25th in MLB, the bottom 20 percent of all teams. In that bottom 20 percent, the only other team with a winning record is the Pirates with a matching 10 saves in 57 games. The Dodgers have just three more saves, but have won close to two-thirds of their games and have the largest run differential in baseball. It’s so odd for the Cubs to so consistently not have high leverage situations.

Three Positives:

• Ian Happ. Three hits, one a two-run homer.
• Colin Rea was very sharp and kept the Cubs in this game while the offense got started. Two earned over 5.1 innings. Just four hits and three walks allowed.
• Seiya Suzuki didn’t exactly scorch the ball, but he had two singles and two runs batted in. He scored once.

Game 57, May 28: Cubs 7, Pirates 2 (31-26)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Ian Happ (.337). 3-5, HR, 2 RBI, R
• Hero: Colin Rea (.196). 5.1 IP, 23 BF, 4 H, 3 BB, 2 ER, 5 K (W 5-3)
• Sidekick: Seiya Suzuki (.182). 2-5, 2 RBI, R

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Nico Hoerner (-.086). 1-5
• Goat: Moisés Ballesteros (-.077). 0-2
• Kid: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-.071). 1-4, BB, R

WPA Play of the Game: Ian Happ hit a two-run homer with two outs in the eighth to extend the lead to three runs. (.201)

Pirates Play of the Game: Tyler Callihan doubled with a runner on first in the sixth, cutting the gap to one. (.148)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 56 Winner: Ian Happ received 125 of 138 votes

Game 55 Winner: Alex Bregman received 52 of 84 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Michael Busch +21
• Alex Bregman/Ian Happ +9.5
• Michael Conforto/Nico Hoerner +9
• Jameson Taillon/Phil Maton -9
• Matt Shaw -10
• Dansby Swanson -12
• Seiya Suzuki -26.5

Current Win Pace: 88.11 wins

Up Next: The first series of the year against the Cardinals (29-25). Whoever wins the series will leave town ahead of the other, probably in second place. The Cardinals have lost four straight and with a -10 run differential, there remain questions as to how good they actually are. They’ve played 24 games against teams currently under .500 (12-12) while the Cubs have only played 12 such games (6-6). Neither team is capitalizing when they get the chance.

Shōta Imanaga (4-5, 4.04, 64.2 IP) makes his 12th start of the year. He’s lost his last three, allowing 17 earned runs in 17.1 innings. The Cardinals are 6-5 against left-handed starters. As a team, the Cardinals have a 95 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. This feels like a good matchup for Shōta to get back on track.

27-year-old Andre Pallante (5-4, 3.76, 55 IP) will make his 11th start of the year for the Cardinals. He’s 2-1 over his last three while pitching very well (5 ER in 17.2 IP). He’s struck out 15 and walked only four in there. Despite being a guy who’s been around for a while, I don’t have any memory of him.

Last August 9, he started a game against the Cubs and only recorded five outs while surrendering six runs on seven hits. Michael Busch took him deep and Dansby Swanson and Carson Kelly each had a three hit day. That game was in St. Louis, so for the second straight day, the Cubs look out an opponent they beat on their own field last year.

Look for another good game and series out of Happ.

Go Cubs!

What on Earth is wrong with José Ramírez?! So far in 2026, he’s slashing .226/.343/.396 – that comes out to just a .739 OPS and a 108 wRC+. Definitely low for a hitter that’s been ~.850 OPS and ~130 wRC+ for a decade. So what’s going on? Is this the beginning of the end of José’s time as a perennial MVP candidate, or is it something else?

The first thing we want to take a look at when gauging if a hitter is on the decline is their plate discipline and contact data. Is the player still making good swing decisions, and are they making contact with the ball when they do swing? Next, we want to look at the quality of that contact. Are they impacting the ball still, and if so, at what level? Is their contact in the optimal launch angle window, or are they popping the ball up or hitting it straight into the ground? Then, we look at luck indicators. Are they finding more gloves than average with their batted balls? I’ll be the first to tell you, as someone that spends a somewhat unhealthy amount of time pouring over baseball related data, the case of 2026 José Ramírez is a complicated but interesting one.

Has José’s plate discipline declined? For the purposes of this research, I decided to compare the data from 2026 so far with two other data sets: José’s career averages, and his 2024 season (since that is arguably his best most recent season). It’s important to keep in mind that when comparing to 2024, things being just a little below that is still keeping him in the top levels of offensive production for his career, because of how good that season was. Let’s look at some numbers. The first one is Chase % (how often he’s swinging at pitches outside the zone). José has a career average Chase % of 26, and so far in 2026 it’s been 29.5. So a little higher, but if we compare to 2024 he’s actually chasing a bit less, as in that season it was 31.6. When compared to the rest of the league this season, the 29.5 rate is actually right around league average. So while that might help him some, that difference really isn’t too significant when we bring in some context. José’s BB % for his career sits right around 10, in 2024 it was 7.9, and so far in 2026? It’s 14.8. This is a massive increase and a good indicator that his patience is still very much intact, especially when combined with the low change in Chase %. The biggest reason for this is pitchers just aren’t throwing him as many strikes. The % of pitches he’s seen in the ABS zone has gone from a career % of 47.4 (47.5 in 2024) to just 45.2 so far in 2026. So actually, this is a very positive sign. It shows a significant adjustment by José in response to changed league pitching strategy toward him.

This doesn’t explain everything though. So let’s look at the contact and contact quality next. His career Contact % is 86.8. In 2024 it was 86.4, and so far in 2026 it’s 86.2. These differences are so small that it could easily just be statistical noise, but that’s a good sign. There’s no meaningful difference in the number of swings and misses he’s having, but let’s narrow it down further. The contact that matters the most is contact on pitches in the zone, as those are the ones easiest for a hitter to drive. His Z-Contact % (The % of pitches in the zone he makes contact with when swinging) for his career is 91.7, in 2024 it was 92.2, and so far in 2026 it’s 93.3. This is another good sign, and it’s an example of still elite bat to ball skill. This is where we’d now want to get into the quality of the contact. After all, hitting the ball more means very little if those batted balls are more weak grounders and pop-ups.

The best place to start for quality of contact is exit velo and bat speed. This is where we see our first really interesting data point. José has never been a bat speed demon by any means, and in fact is usually around the bottom ⅓ or so in the league. His career average is 71 mph, and he averaged 71.6 in 2024. So far in 2026, he’s down to 70.1. This is a noticeable drop, but when we look at his average exit velocity, he’s gone from a career 88.8 and 89.2 in 2024 to 90 in 2026. Since José has never been reliant on bat speed in his career, the fact that the average exit velocity has stayed consistent (and even increased) is the more important factor here.

So what gives here? So far everything has been the same or better than before, right? Basically yeah. There’s 2 more major areas we need to look at, and it’s here where I believe our answer lies. The first data point I want to bring up is launch angle. To get the numbers out of the way early, his career average Launch Angle is 18. In 2024 it was 19.6, and so far in 2026 it’s 20.6. The magnitude of this change isn’t large, but there’s an important subset of his batted balls we want to look at – pulled fly balls. Pulling fly balls is how a lot of hitters generate their home run value, and few have done it better over the last several years than José Ramírez. According to Statcast, in his career, José has pulled the ball in the air 26.6% of the time. In 2024, it was 29.8, and so far in 2026 it’s 28.7. So we’re down a little bit from 2024, but honestly still a very elite level of pulled fly balls. But if we isolate to just the pulled fly ball outcomes and look at the average exit velocity and average launch angle, we have a career average of 35 LA and 94.3 EV, in 2024 it was 34 LA, and 97.1 EV, and in 2026 so far it’s 37 LA and 93.2 EV. These numbers are a small drop, but we can combine it with new Statcast bat tracking data to see José’s attack angle on his swing has increased slightly from 12 (in 2024 and his career average) to 13 so far in 2026. We also see a small jump in the infield fly ball rate – 12.2% for his career, only 10.9% in 2024, and is back up in 2026 so far to 12.5%. It looks like he’s just slightly undercutting the ball a bit, and making less consistent flush contact. We can look at Squared-Up% (or Squared-Up Swing% on Fangraphs) and see he’s squaring the ball up less. His career mark is 29.7, it was 28.5 in 2024, and so far in 2026 it’s 25.7. This is likely a major cause of a lot of the warning track fly balls we might be seeing, or some balls that might’ve been hits staying up just a little longer and being caught. 

This brings us to our last major area we need to go over – luck. José is posting a .367 xwOBA so far in 2026. If that holds, it would be the 3rd best mark of his entire career, only falling short of 2020 and 2021. His actual wOBA though is .039 below the expected results, likely due to a few well struck balls ending up right at fielders, or maybe a few fielders making some nice running/jumping/diving catches to rob him of some hits, or even the wind knocking down a would be homerun on a cold windy day. A negative .039 xwOBA difference is pretty massive. It’s the equivalent of anywhere from a .040 to .070 OPS point drop all on its own. When you consider José’s excellent base running and ability to consistently stretch singles into doubles, he’s a player that often outperforms expected results with his outcomes, making the negative difference all the more devastating for translating into results. We can see this even more when we specifically look at the expected results on the pulled fly balls we broke down earlier. His career xwOBA on pulled fly balls sits at .560, in 2024 it was .646, and so far in 2026 it’s .557. So the batted quality of the fly balls is right at career average levels, but the results have lagged behind. The actual wOBA has been .824 for his career, .989 in 2024, but only .676 in 2026. Make no mistake – these numbers are still elite numbers all things considered, but the bad batted ball luck with the decrease in squared-up contact explains a large portion of the lower results we’re seeing.

Now that it seems we’ve isolated where the change is coming from, it brings up the question “is this correctable, or is this the beginning of the end?” Looking at the whole body of data, I would say he’s just in an unlucky stretch that’s compounded by it happening when he’s also just a little bit off with his contact. There is absolutely nothing here that screams career decline, or that he is suddenly a washed up hitter. While it certainly is possible that this could be the result of an aging hitter, the under the hood numbers suggest he’s making some of the best contact of his career, and just has nothing to show for it so far. It seems more likely he may just be a slight attack angle or timing adjustment away from being back to his reliable old self. So no need to press the panic button yet, and as we see the weather continue to heat up, I believe José will too.

The 2026 Kansas City Royals season has taken a difficult turn, and Jacob Milham and Jeremy Greco are not pretending otherwise. This episode of the Royals Rundown Podcast navigates a bleak stretch of baseball with the honesty and perspective that have defined the show through the tough times.

The episode opens with the latest roster moves, including the minor-league additions of bullpen veterans Luke Jackson and Genesis Cabrera. The hosts assess what that depth actually provides for a team currently on pace for 98 losses, and whether organizational decisions at this stage of the season reflect a coherent plan or simply roster management for its own sake. The Bailey Falter start controversy, the Evan Sisk trade, and the outfield and rotation struggles all factor into a candid conversation about where this team has fallen short and why.

Road performance and diminished resilience after losses are identified as particular concerns, and Jacob and Jeremy work through what the remaining schedule realistically offers for a team that has struggled to capitalize on opportunities throughout the year.

The episode’s most expansive segment shifts to the broader baseball landscape, with a thorough breakdown of the MLB collective bargaining proposals currently on the table. Increased minimum salaries, pre-arbitration pools, spending floors, and the ongoing revenue sharing debate all get detailed treatment. The hosts examine what a proposed salary cap could mean specifically for small market teams like the Royals, and how the spending models of clubs like the Dodgers and Padres illustrate the competitive imbalance at the heart of these negotiations. It is a timely and substantive conversation that goes well beyond the typical frustration with league economics.

Need your Royals fix? Head to royalsreview.com for news, analysis, and to engage with Royals fans around the world! Follow us online:

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– Jeremy Greco: @hokius.fromthehawkseye.com
– Jacob Milham: @jacobmilhkc.bsky.social

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– Podcast: @RoyalRundownPod

As most baseball fans know by now, Major League Baseball is staring down the barrel of a work stoppage after this season. We have known that CBA negotiations would be tense for a while. After the success of the big money Dodgers, the idea of a salary cap has come up more than ever. Over the past couple days, we saw the opening proposals from the MLB and the MLBPA.

I wanted to break down the proposals, talk about how far the two sides have to go, and discuss what it means for the Nats. The great Jeff Passan actually wrote a good piece explaining the situation. It really seems like the only question is how long will the lockout last, not whether there will be a lockout.

The last time owners pushed for a salary cap was back in 1994. If you have been following the game long enough, you would know that was a disaster. A work stoppage interrupted the season, and there was no World Series in 1994. The Expos, the Nats predecessors, were rolling that year, but never got to go all the way. That was a big turning point in the downfall of that franchise.

Over 30 years later, the owners are pushing for a cap again. In their initial proposal, the owners proposed a $245.3 million cap and a $171.2 million floor. The plan would also include a redistribution of the TV revenue to make this possible. Right now, 6 teams are above that cap and 15 teams are below the floor. This would seriously change baseball forever.

Honestly, the cap is lower than I thought it would be and the floor is higher. This proposal would really force Mark Lerner to spend money. Right now, the Nats are $77 million below the proposed floor. If something like this passes, the Nats would have to extend players, trade for larger contracts and sign free agents. As a fan of the Nats, that is fine by me.

For fans of bigger market teams and the players association, this proposal will not make them happy. Right now, the Dodgers and Mets are both $50 million over the cap. They would have to shed serious payroll and not spend any money to be compliant. That would make their fans and the players upset.

Now, we turn to the player’s proposal. They have proposed a $150 million floor, but obviously have no cap with it. The players also want to increase the minimum salary, which is an idea I can get behind. Guys like James Wood are making peanuts compared to what they deserve. Lastly, they want the CBT threshold to go from $244 million to $300 million. That last proposal just seems like a non-starter given the concerns about parity. This would allow teams like the Dodgers to spend even more.

It is clear that the two sides are very far apart. They do have some common ground, especially when it comes to revenue sharing. Both sides seem to know that there needs to be more revenue sharing for this system to work. The Dodgers TV deal can’t absolutely dwarf any other teams. That is not a viable system, and both sides know it.

So what happens if/when the lockout comes. Well, any player on the 40-man roster is pretty much out of commission. This could have some impact on what the Nats do later in the season. Yohandy Morales will be Rule-5 eligible after the season, so they have to put him on the 40-man anyway. That means his potential big league call up won’t be affected by this. 

However, for players like Seaver King and Jackson Kent, this could leave them in the minors longer than they otherwise would be. The organization is not going to want to have them on the 40-man and not play games in the minors next year. By the way, the minor leagues are not impacted by this other than the 40-man roster players. I really enjoy minor league baseball, and fans might have to lock into that, at least to start next season.

Many people have theorized that this lockout could cost us all of next season. While I think the start of next season will be delayed, I have faith that they will figure it out. Once games are missed, the pressure will amp up on both sides to get something done. It won’t be pretty, but I believe we will see Major League Baseball at some point in 2027.

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Toronto Blue Jays infielder Ernie Clement has been one of the most consistent hitters in baseball over the last two weeks, and his profile matches up perfectly against struggling Baltimore Orioles starter Trevor Rogers.

The matchup sets up well for Clement to go Over his bases total for my Blue Jays vs. Orioles predictions and MLB picks for Friday, May 29.

Blue Jays vs Orioles predictions

Blue Jays vs Orioles best bet: Ernie Clement Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)

The combination of a struggling Baltimore Orioles starter, Trevor Rogers, and a red-hot Ernie Clement makes this plus-money wager a solid value at +115. 

In fact, I’d bet Over 1.5 bases to -110

Clement has recorded a hit in nine of his last 10 games, averaging 2.3 bases over that stretch. He’s also seen the power numbers improve over the last eight with seven extra base hits, resulting in a 1.055 OPS in that stretch. 

Rogers is a contact pitcher who ranks in the 23rd percentile in xBA, relying heavily on his four-seam fastball, which has a 42% usage rate against right-handed batters.

His last six starts have been abysmal, owning an 11.07 ERA in that stretch with a .343 opponent batting average while giving up hard contact at a 41.1% clip. 

Clement’s hitting profile matches up well to Rogers, as he owns a .327 average against the four-seamer with a team-high .572 slug rate against the pitch.

COVERS INTEL:Clement 36.9% squared up rate ranks in the 97th percentile, which should match up well against Rogers’ 84.9% zone contact rate. 

Blue Jays vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)

I’ll continue fading Rogers by taking the Over on his earned runs total of 2.5. He’s eclipsed this total in six straight starts, and the Toronto Blue Jays should victimize him again as a strong-hitting team against the fastball. 

Rogers owns just a 22% strikeout rate and is averaging just 2.5 K’s per game over his last four starts. Give me Vlad Guerrero Jr to go Under 0.5 strikeouts tonight. He’s seeing the ball well and has struck out just once in his last seven outings. 

Blue Jays vs Orioles SGP

• Ernie Clement Over 1.5 total bases
• Trevor Rogers Over 2.5 earned runs
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 strikeouts

Blue Jays vs Orioles home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+315)

Rogers has been hit hard and often over his last six starts, surrendering six home runs in that stretch off a 41% hard-hit rate. 

Additionally, the Jays have seen an uptick in their power numbers with eight homers over their last seven games. 

So the matchup favors Toronto to go yard tonight, and I’m betting on Kazuma Okamoto, who owns a team-high .596 slug rate against the four-seamer, with a 66% hard-hit rate. 

Blue Jays vs Orioles odds

• Moneyline: Toronto +104 | Baltimore -115
• Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-195) | Baltimore -1.5 (-170)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)

Blue Jays vs Orioles trend

The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+10.10 Units / 49% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Orioles.

How to watch Blue Jays vs Orioles and game info

Blue Jays vs Orioles latest injuries

Blue Jays vs Orioles weather

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