The Yankees are welcoming one of the AL Central leader into town tonight, and it’s not the Cleveland Guardians team that they’ve played so much of recently. No, after shuffling back and forth once more it is the Chicago White Sox sitting atop the Central by tiebreaker at this moment, surprising everyone by jumping out to a 38-32 record and escaping the cellar of the division. However, you’d be forgiven for not thinking that could’ve been a possibility, both because of that record being only a few games above .500 and for the fact that they’re sitting at a meager +12 run differential heading into Tuesday’s action.
They’re far from the only ones struggling in that department. The White Sox’s main competition, and the team that was alone in first place just a week ago, is actually negative in run differential. The Guardians have been outscored by three runs this year, yet sit in prime position to contend for a postseason berth with a 39-33 record. The same is true in the AL West, where the competition is even more bunched up: the 37-36 Mariners control first place by a half-game and have the second-highest run differential in the AL, but all that’s good for is a +20 mark when the Yankees lord above them with +107. The Athletics are dead even at 36-36 but would occupy a Wild Card slot if the season ended today, and they have a whopping -42 run differential! The Rangers are barely below .500 and barely above in the run differential discussion being positive by four runs, but they’re only a game out of a Wild Card.
The Yankees are busy trying to get some separation from the Rays, but they’re a piece of that puzzle as well — the only other team in the AL to have cracked 40 wins thus far, Tampa sits at a +7 in run differential after dropping a nail-biter to the Dodgers on Monday. The rest of the AL East is under the bus as a result of their poor play, but the Rays have been one of the few outliers to separate themselves from the pack and contest the Yankees, thanks in no small part to having swept them early in the year and taking a split in their latter meeting. They’re the only ones standing in New York’s way at the moment though, and as Jake discussed yesterday morning, it’s not exactly early in the season anymore. But we’ve taken the microscope to the East already, so I want to point it at the rest of the cast today.
Chicago and Cleveland sit a fair bit over the rest of the AL Central, but the gap is hardly insurmountable, especially given how both teams have been dealt blows to their roster. Munetaka Murakami was one of the biggest revelations of the early season after getting looked over in the offseason, but his injury took a big chunk of Chicago’s offensive engine out with him. Cleveland sits in a similar boat with a much-more established face, having lost Jose Ramírez for the next few months. Does that open the door for a team like the Twins, who have sat in mediocrity for most of the year but have rarely left the middle of the pack? They lack the depth of those two teams, but they’re only six games out and have played better ball in June than how they ended May. Could that be the glimmer of hope for the Tigers, thought to be dead in the water after losing Tarik Skubal and falling into the cellar after being picked as preseason favorites? Skubal is back now, and despite a terrible record are only nine games out of it — they blew a bigger division lead just last year, so perhaps this could be their revenge. The Royals are probably the hardest sell of the bunch, deserving of their last place position, but they have an MVP frontrunner in Bobby Witt Jr. and could perhaps will themselves into Wild Card talks if no one else takes the reins.
Out in the West, things are even more chaotic. The Mariners are ahead only after getting themselves out of their early season doldrums, and seeing their offense start to come to life. The rotation is one of the scariest in the league, even with a rather ineffective Luis Castillo, but that hasn’t netted them any ground in the standings at the end of the day. The A’s defy rhyme or reason, boasting a strong enough offense but have been buried by their inability to prevent runs, and yet for a long portion of the year they led this division and still find themselves a mere half-game out. Texas has had the inverse problem, with a stellar rotation buoyed by an offense that has had role players step up but lacked any meaningful production from their stars. Somehow Houston, who looked dead and buried after an abysmal April that saw them weather an onslaught of injuries, is only four games out of the Wild Card and 4.5 out of the division outright. I’m willing to write off the Angels (sorry Mike Trout, nice to see you doing well again though), but everyone else in this division looks ready to scrap their way to 87 wins and potentially come out with the crown. It’s wild to see.
If push came to shove, I couldn’t name a single one of these teams that I feel confident in separating from the pack. I could see logic in picking any one of them, but not enough to rule out the reasons that the others have kept them within arm’s reach this whole time. A week ago Cleveland looked to be the one closest to breaking out, but they lost their homegrown hero and suddenly that gap has gone up in smoke again. I do think the Tigers have a run in them that’ll keep the Central bunched up, while the West is anyone’s guess — I think the A’s will finally play to their strength level and fall behind the pack, but I don’t know if that will be the Mariners outclassing them so much as it will be them just fading away after a decent enough start. I think the last thing anyone out west wants to see is Houston get any closer, but Yordan Alvarez might be willing that team to just that. Is there a team that you believe will cut themselves out of the net? Who are they, and what gives you that belief if you have it?
We’ve got a busy day ahead of us, so let’s run through the docket quick. Matt starts us off with a look at the White Sox pitchers the Yankees will face in this upcoming series, and then I’ll be back to break down the Rays’ loss to the Dodgers in detail as our only feature game of the Rivalry Roundup. Jeff gets to wish a current Yankee a happy birthday as Will Warren turns 27, Michael covers the last week down in the minor leagues, Sam examines some potential parallels to the 2019 Next Man Up Yankees, and Nick delivers the Yankee Reliever Confidence Index for June.
Today’s Matchup
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox
Time: 7:05 p.m. EST
Video: YES Network, Chicago Sports Network
Venue: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY