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You can’t step into the same batter’s box twice. Well, you can— the rulebook is rather stringent about what qualities a batter’s box has to have. But we’re talking in a Heraclitean sense here. Perhaps it would be more accurate to say that the batter’s box remains the same, but the batter himself does not.

Bryce Harper is going to try to challenge Heraclitus’ opinion in the same way that he challenged Dave Dombrowski’s (though it is doubtful that he will accompany this challenge with a custom t-shirt). Recently, Harper stated that he wanted to walk more in 2026. A lot more. He was one of MLB’s better walk-drawers in 2025, with his 12.1% rate ranking 23rd league-wide. Only 28 players had more free passes than Harper’s 70. But he wants to draw 140 to 150 in 2026. That would be a career-high for him. The closest he’s gotten is 130 in 2018, his final season as a National. Since then, he’s changed his approach at the plate to a somewhat more free-swinging style. It’s brought him success in Philadelphia. But now he’s looking to go back to the past. Can Harper find a way to return to being the Bryce of 2018?

Before we can answer that, we have to ask a different question: who was the Bryce of 2018, anyway? This pre-Philly Bryce was a superstar, albeit one who had not yet discovered the sartorial flair of a good Phanatic headband. But he was a star with a rather different approach at the plate as compared to the Harper of today. 2018-Harper swung 45.7% of the time, as compared to 2025-Harper’s 54.2%. He was significantly more patient than his older self, swinging at the first pitch of an at-bat 40.4% of the time as compared to his current self’s 54.1%. And most of that bygone reluctance to swing was concentrated on pitches outside the zone: 2018-Bryce’s 25.3% chase rate ballooned to 35.6% by 2025. Interestingly enough, the more conservative 2018 Harper was slightly more likely to whiff than the swing-happy 2025 edition (31.4% vs. 30.7%).

Harper getting back to to drawing walks like it was 2018 would take significant effort and focus, though Harper’s determination is not to be doubted. But Harper can only control what he can control. And while he can control what pitches he swings at, he can’t control what pitches he gets. The Bryce Harper of 2018 was seeing a very different pitch mix than the Harper of today. In 2018, just about a quarter of the pitches he saw were breaking balls. In 2025, it was 41.3%. How might that impact his efforts to return to the past?

Here’s Harper’s swings on pitches outside the zone (O-Swing%), by pitch type, in 2018 and 2025, using FanGraphs’ pitch definitions.

In 2018, Harper was just about as likely to chase a breaking ball as he was a heater. His chase rate on four-seamers hasn’t changed much since then. But his chase rate for breaking balls has exploded — which, of course, is why pitchers are so eager to show him more of them. That’s good news for his efforts: if his chase rates on fastballs and breaking balls were similar in 2018, then the change in the pitch mix he’s being shown shouldn’t be a problem, as long as he returns to swinging like he did in 2018.

Easier said than done, of course. And while the passes are free, pursuing more of them comes at a cost. We know what Harper stands to gain by taking more BBs. But we have to look at what he stands to lose as well.

Harper’s increased willingness to chase diminished his walk rate, but it helped him build production in some areas. Here’s his wOBA by zone in 2018 and 2025. The third image shows the difference between the two.

The 2025 version of Harper produced more on pitches inside. All that chasing generally hurt his production outside the zone, but it dramatically improved it on pitches he chased up and inside. The difference may not be as much as it seems, though— note that the gap between his expected wOBAs in 2025 and 2018 in that same quadrant was .104; less than half as much. Still, he really did produce more on those pitches with his 2025 style. He’d potentially be giving that up if he returns to his old approach.

Is that worth it? Well, nostalgia can’t be quantified, but run value can. And we can say that 2018-Harper was more productive than 2025-Harper by that measure.

2025-Harper was more productive on pitches in that upper right quadrant. But looking at the whole, he produced 37 runs in 2018, and only 24 in 2025. The gains he made with the new approach were offset by the costs. Granted, his run values in 2023 and 2024, when he was about as chase-happy as he was this past season, were quite similar to his 2018 run value. So perhaps the gap between 2018 and 2025 isn’t as much about the chasing as it was something else. The comparison between 2018 and 2025 is meaningful, but a little narrowly-sliced; there’s plenty of variance within the results of two given seasons. Still, given Harper’s underwhelming 2025, it’s not hard to see why he felt that it was time to return to the old ways.

You can’t really go home again, though. Maybe that’s an odd thing to say in the context of baseball, the sport in where the whole point is to reach home. But it’s true. Even if Harper could perfectly replicate the mentality and approach of his 2018 self, he can’t replicate the body he had 8 years ago. At 33 years old, he’s far from washed up, but certainly at the point where age is being felt. Unfortunately, we only have bat speed data dating back to 2023. But it is probably fair to assume that he cannot swing the bat in 2026 as fast as he did in 2018. That may mean that the exact same approach at the plate would produce different results. Even if he can replicate the walk rate he had in 2018, he may end up with a very different stat line overall. If swinging less doesn’t produce the change he’s hoping to see, Harper will have to look to alternate strategies for reasserting his eliteness. We don’t know exactly what form he’ll settle into by the end of the 2026. We know it won’t really be 25-year old Harper again. But we can be sure he’s hellbent on finding the best version of 33-year old Harper that can be.

After the San Diego Padres dropped Opening Day against the Detroit Tigers, 8-2, they’re not off to nearly as auspicious a start as the 2025 season, to say the least.

There’s plenty to be excited about: Xander Bogaerts’ two hits off Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, Ramón Laureano’s home run, the bullpen (more or less) locking it down and only using one high-leverage reliever.

But the starting pitching took a hit.

In a game that was already going to be difficult with Skubal on the mound for the opposition, Nick Pivetta struggled to get out of the first inning.

After striking out leadoff man Kerry Carpenter, he couldn’t find the zone and issued two walks and a single to the load the bases before walking in a run.

He ended the inning having given up four runs but was mostly solid for the rest of his outing (3 innings).

San Diego knew it wasn’t going to get much against Skubal but managed to put up two runs against a dominant Tigers pitching staff. But if they want to stay in games the pitching will need to be a lot stronger moving forward.

Taking the mound

Framber Valdez (DET) v. Michael King (SD)

Enter Michael King.

King was an ace for the Padres in 2024, pitching to a 2.95 ERA across a career-high 30 starts. But in ‘25 he suffered an injury-plagued campaign that saw him miss half the season.

If King can return to form, San Diego’s rotation will go a long way toward being as elite as it can be.

Today, the Friars will have their work cut out for them against ground ball extraordinaire Framber Valdez. After spending his whole career with the Houston Astros, he inked a three-year, $115 million deal with Detroit to serve as a co-ace with Skubal.

Batter up!

San Diego will likely use a very similar lineup as they did on Opening Day. Skubal and Valdez pitch quite similarly, with them being two of the most dominant southpaws in the game.

Despite Fernando Tatis Jr. hitting leadoff yesterday, it seems possible that manager Craig Stammen could shake things up and go back to his lineup from earlier this spring:

1. Xander Bogaerts, SS
2. Jackson Merrill, CF
3. Manny Machado, 3B
4. Fernando Tatis Jr., RF
5. Ramón Laureano, LF
6. Miguel Andujar, DH
7. Nick Castellanos, 1B
8. Freddy Fermin, C
9. Jake Cronenworth, 2B

The case for Bogaerts leading off is in large part due to the fact that he’s raked against Valdez (and went on a tear yesterday against Skubal). In 11 career at-bats against him, he has a .364 batting average and a .917 OPS.

It’s possible they use the same lineup as yesterday, putting Tatis at leadoff and bumping Bogaerts down to second again. It seems likely that Castellanos will get the start at first base after coming in to pinch-hit for Gavin Sheets in the eighth inning.

Relief corps

Stammen gave Pivetta quite the leash in spite of his difficult first inning, letting him work out of the jam. But after three innings, San Diego turned to its relievers.

Ron Marinaccio surrendered the only bullpen runs on a two-run homer in the fifth inning, but was spotless across two innings outside of that.

Top prospect Bradgley Rodriguez and David Morgan racked up four strikeouts across a combined three scoreless innings, and the Padres brought in Wandy Peralta to close out the game in the ninth.

With the game so out of hand before the seventh-inning stretch, most of the high-leverage options stayed in the ‘pen. Hopefully San Diego can get to Valdez today and they’ll get to have Mason Miller close out his first game of 2026.

Opening Day is here — and it’s time to make some bold calls.

In this episode of the Royals Rundown Podcast, hosts Jacob Milham and Jeremy Greco break down the upcoming start of the Kansas City Royals’ season while diving into the biggest storylines shaping baseball both on and off the field. From early-season reactions and roster updates to lingering buzz from the World Baseball Classic, the hosts set the stage for what could be a defining year for the franchise.

A major focus of the episode is the evolving landscape of MLB broadcasting, including frustrations with Netflix’s baseball coverage, ongoing blackout restrictions, and what the future of streaming means for fans trying to follow the Royals. Jacob and Jeremy explore how media rights, accessibility, and league partnerships could reshape how fans consume the game in the coming years.

The episode also introduces a brand-new segment: the “Bold Royals Predictions” game, where the hosts make betting-style projections on player stats, team performance, and season outcomes. From home run totals and ERAs to total team runs scored, the predictions range from realistic expectations to ambitious (and sometimes wild) forecasts for 2026.

Blending season preview insights, media analysis, and interactive fan engagement, this episode gives Royals fans everything they need to start the season informed, entertained, and ready to make their own predictions.

Link to the form: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSeE5_r-X4g_0QJGZS0zZBgT4QYVZKLJE1ZkSDjcYRPAhYL41g/viewform?usp=header

Need your Royals fix? Head to royalsreview.com for news, analysis, and to engage with Royals fans around the world! Follow us online:

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– Jeremy Greco: @hokius.fromthehawkseye.com
– Jacob Milham: @jacobmilhkc.bsky.social

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The Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks begin the second game of a three-game series this evening in a pitching mismatch.

LA won last night, and we expect a repeat here.

My Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks predictions and MLB picks break down why I like LA to take care of business on Friday, March 27.

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers predictions

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers best bet: Dodgers -1.5 (-115)

Emmett Sheehan's 2025 campaign was a nice breakout and something I see as sustainable: 30.6% K rate (92nd percentile), 30% whiff rate (93rd). He misses bats, gets plenty of chase, and the Arizona Diamondbacks lineup lacks the contact quality to punish mistakes throughout.

On the other side, Ryne Nelson was a common fade candidate for me last year, and I see no reason for that to change. Especially against this Los Angeles Dodgers lineup. His below-average whiff rate and a hard-hit rate in the bottom 20 percent of baseball loom large against Shohei Ohtani and company.

COVERS INTEL:The Dodgers had four players last season with a double-digit run value against the four-seam fastball. They'll face Ryne Nelson, a pitcher who threw the heater over 60% of the time last season.

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)

Sheehan struck out 30% of batters last year, and Arizona's lineup is heavy on free swingers. His slider alone generated a 94th-percentile breaking run value, which is another trouble spot for the Snakes.

I projected his strikeout number at 5.8, so there's plenty of value in the plus-money price as well as the same-game parlay pairing.

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers SGP

• Dodgers -1.5
• Emmet Sheehan Over 5.5 strikeouts

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers home run pick: Will Smith (+400)

Will Smith has some under-the-radar value tonight against Nelson. 

His fastball makes up the bulk of his pitching arsenal, which is something you'd think he'd reduce (at least some) against this Dodgers lineup. Enter the slider.

Nelson relied on this pitch throughout 2025 as a go-to secondary option. If he uses that against Smith, he'll be showing him a pitch on which Smith produced the second-highest average exit velocity and hardest hit rate of any Dodger player.

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers odds

• Moneyline: Arizona +265 | Los Angeles -210
• Run line: Arizona +1.5 (+105) | Los Angeles +1.5 (-115)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers trend

The Dodgers have won four of the last five head-to-head matchups with the Diamondbacks. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers.

How to watch Diamondbacks vs Dodgers and game info

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers latest injuries

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers weather

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After the Nats big Opening Day win over the Cubs, I wanted to sit back and see what we can take away from this performance. Obviously it is just one game, but we are always looking for trends. I found three things that could be important themes of this 2026 season.

The Nats are Swinging for the Fences:

One of the biggest things I saw yesterday is that the Nats are going to the plate looking to do damage. This team digs the long ball, and they are willing to sacrifice some contact to do that. The Nats whiffed 20 times against Cubs starter Matthew Boyd, but that did not stop them from doing damage. 

Joey Wiemer and Brady House were two players taking really big hacks, and both were rewarded. Those two hit two of the Nats three home runs. Wiemer did not strike out, but he did whiff a few times. He was more than happy to let it rip, especially when he was ahead in the count.

House did strike out a couple times, but when he made contact, it was loud. His two hits were 107 MPH and 111 MPH. House’s homer just pierced through the strong Chicago wind and gave the Nats a cherry on top in their impressive win. His strong production from Spring Training carried over to the regular season, at least today.

I think House will always be more of a mistake hitter who pitchers can get out if they execute. However, that is not necessarily a bad thing. If House can consistently punish mistakes, he will put up big numbers. Pitchers are not going to hit their spots every time and punishing them when they miss is a valuable skill. House is always ready to swing, which means he won’t be taking many pitches down the middle.

Wiemer and House were not the only ones taking big hacks though. Andres Chaparro, CJ Abrams and even Jacob Young were out there swinging for the fences. Young got rewarded with a shocking Opening Day homer, while the other two just missed home runs. 

There will be days where the Nats are unable to overcome their whiff issues, but today they did enough damage to make it a moot point. Hitting the ball in the air and hunting for power will be emphasized with this new regime. There are drawbacks to this approach, but we saw the upside yesterday.

The Pitching Bent but did not Break:

The Nats pitching staff only allowed four runs and three earned runs yesterday. However, the Cubs were putting consistent pressure on Nats pitchers. It felt like the Cubs leadoff man was on just about every inning. The Nats arms were able to dig deep and get out of most of the jams though.

Cade Cavalli, PJ Poulin, Brad Lord and Clayton Beeter all got themselves in and out of jams yesterday. They got themselves out of it in different ways. Cavalli and Beeter used the strikeout to bail them out, while Lord used his ability to generate ground balls. Sometimes they won’t be as fortunate, but the Nats pitching staff walked the tight rope yesterday.

Overall, the Nats pitchers looked solid, but not perfect. I did like how they were deployed by manager Blake Butera though. He was quick to pull Cavalli, when I thought he could have gone one more batter. That decision paid off, with PJ Poulin retiring Matt Shaw. Conversely, Butera gave Brad Lord a longer leash and let his long man get out of a couple jams.

Maybe on another day those decisions would have backfired, but Butera looked like a genius yesterday. His bullpen management will be different than what we saw last year, and it could take some getting used to. However, between the lineup construction and the bullpen usage, Butera looked like a mad scientist yesterday. Long may that continue.

Cade Cavalli made his first Opening Day start, and he was fine. Not amazing, not terrible, just fine. He ran into some bad luck and his defense did not do him any favors. That led to his pitch count climbing in a hurry. When Butera pulled the right hander with two outs in the 4th, his pitch count had already climbed to 75 pitches. Maybe later in the season, Butera would have tried to push him further, but the bullpen is as fresh as it will ever be.

The stuff looked good for Cavalli, especially early on. He was sitting 97 with a sharp sweeper and curve to go with it. Cavalli also mixed in a few changeups, which kept lefties off balance. The sweeper is a bit of a weird pitch. It is almost like another variation of his curveball rather than a traditional sweeper. His command of the pitch was spotty at times, but it is a strong new weapon.

Another guy I was impressed with was Cionel Perez, who delivered a 1-2-3 ninth. The wind probably saved him from allowing a homer, but his stuff looked crisp. He averaged 96.5 MPH on his heater and his breaking balls looked good. Perez seems primed for a bounce back and will be a big part of the Nats bullpen.

James Wood’s Struggles Continue:

There was so much good in yesterday’s game, but James Wood was not a part of that. He went 0/5 with 4 strikeouts yesterday. Wood continued to look like the guy from the second half and Spring Training who has really struggled to make contact. After yesterday’s performance, Wood has a 40% strikeout rate since July 4th of 2025.

Obviously, that is not what you want to see from a guy who should be a cornerstone piece. Kevin Frandsen mentioned on the broadcast that Wood was in between on everything and I think that is a good observation. He was taking fastballs down the middle and expanding the zone on breaking balls away. 

Wood just looks like a hitter who is devoid of any confidence right now. If I were advising him, I would tell him to simplify things. Just sit on the fastball and adjust for now. Just try and hunt heaters in the zone and if you strike out on a bunch of breaking balls, just tip your cap.

He is clearly thinking too much right now and that is not working for him. Unlike Dylan Crews, we have seen Wood be a star level player for long stretches. That means I would not want to send him down anytime soon. However, he needs to start putting together competitive at bats.

We all know what James Wood can do when he is right. He is the most important player on the current roster for the future of this team. Getting Wood back to his best needs to be the Nats top priority right now. You don’t often see guys who produce like MVP candidates for half a season at just 22 totally lose it, but Wood just does not have it right now.

The talent did not just disappear, but it is hidden away right now. I still feel like he is one adjustment away from recapturing his previous magic. However, it is tough to see him looking the way he does. Wood getting going would be such a big boost for fans.

Despite Wood’s struggles, this was still a great day for the Nats. The rest of the lineup looked great, the pitching staff was solid and Blake Butera pushed all the right buttons. Last season, the Nats were never above .500 at any point in the season. You will not be able to say that about the 2026 Nats.

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The  Los Angeles Angels got an opening day upset over the Houston Astros in Houston.

Perhaps Mike Trout has discovered the fountain of youth, while the Astros have misplaced their ability to hit. More likely, normalcy will return to both dugouts as the long MLB season hits day two.

Look for the Houston bats to arrive from camp after a one-day delay.

My Angels vs. Astros predictions and MLB picks look for Houston to even its record with a win.

Angels vs Astros predictions

Angels vs Astros best bet: Astros moneyline (-166)

The pitching matchup is heavily in the Houston Astros favor. Starter Mike Burrows seized a top-three rotation spot with a dominating spring training for Houston. He pitched a team-high 18 innings and allowed just three runs, striking out 17.

The Los Angeles Angels counter with Yusei Kikuchi, who is 1-6 with a 5.83 ERA in 16 career starts against Houston. He also got batted around in the WBC.

The Angels also used four relievers to finish off Houston in the opener. Their bullpen was already a question mark, with expected contributors Robert Stephenson, Ben Joyce, and Kirby Yates all starting the season on the IL.  

COVERS INTEL:Five Astros batters have a career OPS over 1.000 against Kikuchi, and five have homered, hitting a combined nine home runs against him.

Angels vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)

A broken hand and sprained ankle cost Yordan Alvarez most of last season. He's back to full health, though, and ready to assume his role as Houston's most dangerous hitter. He has nine career RBIs against Kikuchi, second most of any hitter the hurler has faced.

After a 3-0 opening day result, this pitching matchup is more conducive to offense. Burrows averaged less than 4.2 innings per start last year, and the Astros bullpen already put in more than four innings of work in the opening game. Look for lots of pitchers and plenty of runs on both sides.

Angels vs Astros SGP

• Astros -1.5 runs 
• Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 RBIs
• Over 8.5 total runs 

Angels vs Astros home run pick: Yordan Alvarez (+325)

Alvarez should have had a home run in the opening game, but his rocket shot hit the roof of the stadium.

It still cleared the wall but was deflected by the roof into foul territory. He has a 1.143 career OPS against Kikuchi and is one of seven batters to take him deep three times, a group that also includes Shohei Ohtani.

Angels vs Astros odds

• Moneyline: Los Angeles +143 | Houston -158
• Run line: Los Angeles +1.5 (-150) | Houston -1.5 (+130)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)

Angels vs Astros trend

Yusei Kikuchi has not finished the fourth inning in his last three starts against Houston, all losses where the Astros scored eight or more runs. Find more MLB betting trends for Angels vs. Astros.

How to watch Angels vs Astros and game info

Angels vs Astros latest injuries

Angels vs Astros weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The value of the Royals increased over 25 percent, according to estimates released this week by Forbes, putting their valuation at $1.64 billion. MLB teams overall enjoyed a 12 percent increase in valuations league-wide, the largest jump since 2017. The Royals moved up to #27 among 30 MLB teams in valuation, with only the Pittsburgh Pirates, Cincinnati Reds, and Miami Marlins ranked lower. The New York Yankees top the valuation list at $8.5 billion with the Los Angeles Dodgers narrowing the gap at $7.8 billion.

The valuation represents a 64 percent increase since John Sherman and his ownership group bought the team for $1 billion in 2019. Forbes estimates the Royals bring him $330 million in total revenues with $172 million in player expenses. They estimate the team has $25 million in operating income, a big increase from 2025 when they had $5.6 million in operating income, but a far cry from 2024 when they were estimated to have $52 million in operating income. Player expenses are down slightly from 2025 when they stood at $186 million, but Spotrac has their team payroll as 17th-highest in baseball.

The Royals are seeking to add to their revenues with a new stadium, although Jackson County voters rejected a ballot measure to extend a sales tax to build a stadium in the Crossroads. The team looked at sites in North Kansas City and in Overland Park, but recently public officials in those jurisdictions have expressed a desire to move on. The team has also had talks with Kansas City officials about a potential site at Washington Square Park, although financing is a sticking point.

The increased valuation around baseball is a bit head-scratching considering the changing TV landscape and a looming labor battle. Several teams, including the Royals, ended their local TV deal with Diamond Sports to have MLB oversee television production, losing tens of millions of dollars in annual revenue with the change. The Collective Bargaining Agreement also expires at the end of the season, with several reports that owners are adamant about implementing a salary cap, a nonstarter for the union.

Despite those concerns, valuations continue to go up – the Tampa Bay Rays sold last fall for $1.7 billion, far above the $1.25 billion valuation from Forbes. Baseball has signed lucrative new TV deals with ESPN, NBC, and Netflix, and attendance has increased in each of the last three seasons. The sport is also coming off its most-watched World Series in over 30 years and its most-watched World Baseball Classic.

Forbes bases its estimates from team and league executives, sports bankers, media consultants and public documents, such as stadium lease agreements and filings related to public bonds.

The San Francisco Giants will continue their opening series against the New York Yankees this afternoon from Oracle Park. The Yankees have a 1-0 series lead after the Giants’ disastrous Opening Day loss.

Taking the mound for the first time this season for the Giants will be left-hander Robbie Ray, who finished the 2025 season with a 3.65 ERA, 3.93 FIP, with 186 strikeouts to 73 walks in 182.1 innings pitched.

He’ll be facing off against Yankees right-hander Cam Schlittler, who finished the 2025 season with a 2.96 ERA, 3.74 FIP, with 84 strikeouts to 31 walks in 73 innings pitched.

Game #2

Who: San Francisco Giants (0-1) vs. New York Yankees (1-0)

Where: Oracle Park, San Francisco, California

When: 1:35 p.m. PT

Regional broadcast: NBC Sports Bay Area

National broadcast: n/a

Radio: KNBR 680 AM/104.5 FM, KSFN 1510 AM