Since the Colorado Rockies new front office took the reins of the organization, I have assumed they have been operating with an eye towards building a contention window starting in 2029 at the absolute earliest.
However, their actions at the trade deadline earlier this week seem incongruous with that assumption.
It wasn’t until reading the following from Paul DePodesta’s post trade deadline comments that a possible explanation started to crystalize: “We had a set price in mind of what it would take to acquire any of our players. We think we got a lot of good players here. We think we have the foundation of something that has a chance to be pretty good.”
It would seem that the front office believes the players they have in house are better than the outside consensus and that the potential for the foundation of a competitive club is already in place. Their actions lend credence to this assertion about what their thinking is.
The only impending free agent they traded this week was Antonio Senzatela. All four starting pitchers on expiring contracts were retained. I don’t think we can read too much into this given the specifics of those starting pitchers.
- Kyle Freeland and Michael Lorenzen both have an ERA of nearly seven.
- Jose Quintana has been injured for most of the season.
- Tomoyuki Sugano has solid surface level production, but his underlying metrics continue to look rough.
Given that, it’s not shocking that none of these pitchers attracted a return worth pursuing even for a fully rebuilding club.
What didn’t make sense if the team were in full sell mode was this:
- Keeping all three players set to be a free agent after next season (Mickey Moniak, Willi Castro, & Jimmy Herget).
- Keeping three corner outfielders aged 28 or older (Moniak, Jake McCarthy, and Troy Johnston) despite having another four potentially interesting players at Triple-A for those positions (Charlie Condon (No. 1 PuRP), Zac Veen (No. 9 PuRP), Sterlin Thompson (No. 13 PuRP), and Jordan Beck).
- Extending Moniak for only a single extra season.
To top it off, the only players other than Senzatela that the Rockies did move were under team control for three or more seasons and coming off poor recent play. Instead of getting what they could for a year-and-a-half of Moniak, they sold low on three-and-a-half years of Brenton Doyle. Instead of getting what they could for a year-and-a-half of Herget, they instead found teams interested in tinkering with the raw upside of three-plus years of Seth Halvorsen and Victor Vodnik.
The Rockies didn’t operate like a team attempting to maximize total talent in the organization by punting on the next couple seasons. Instead, they operated as if they see a path to a competitive window opening within the two seasons that they have Moniak and McCarthy under contract.
The immediate reaction to that possibility is, instinctively, incredulity.
Whether or not that initial reaction is warranted, or purely ingrained by almost a decade of the franchise seeming directionless, is up for debate. It’s worth considering what it would take for this team to be plausibly fighting for a wildcard spot before McCarthy and Moniak are set to become free agents after 2028.
In his post-trade deadline presser, DePodesta said, “In June, we were a very good offensive club, one of the best in baseball. I think the best maybe offensive club we’ve had here in a month in a long period of time. So we do feel like it’s coming together,” which isn’t too much of an exaggeration. The lineup was fifth in runs scored June and tenth in July. There are a number of encouraging signs offensively on the big league club and some more percolating in the high minors.
It is possible to squint and see a lineup capable of competing for a third wild card over the next couple seasons if things break right.
The pitching, on the other hand, is another story entirely.
Since I wrote about the potential 2027 rotation in mid-June, a number of factors have trended in a positive direction for Rockies pitching:
- Gabriel Hughes (No. 12 PuRP) has immediately looked like a potential mid-rotation starter in the majors.
- The draft netted the Rockies a couple of the higher-ceiling arms in the organization with Logan Reddeman and Tyler Putnam.
- The Doyle trade brought back a nearly major-league-ready starter in Mason Adams.
- A handful of potential back-of-the-rotation-type prospects (Jack Mahoney, Konnor Eaton (No. 28 PuRP), and Eiberson Castellano) have continued to put up strong numbers in the high minors.
It’s possible that the Rockies will have enough in-house options available to field a full starting rotation over the next two seasons barring injuries. That rotation would have an incredibly low ceiling, but you can squint and see a baseline of at least enough potential innings to muddle through.
Even given the most optimistic view of the rotation, however, it’s hard to envision a version that is genuinely able to be fighting for a playoff spot at the end of either 2027 or 2028 using only in-house options. If the team wants to win before players like Moniak and McCarthy are gone, they will need to invest a lot of money into luring impact free agents to Colorado within the next year and a half.
The idea of that happening seems far fetched given the Rockies recent track record but, when considering their payroll commitments beyond this year, it’s not actually that unthinkable.
Kris Bryant is the only player the Rockies have slated to make more than $8.5 million next year. They only have four guaranteed major-league deals for players who are beyond their arbitration years. Their total estimated payroll in 2027, other than arbitration-eligible players, is just $71 million. This is a club that has run a payroll between $119 and $170 million dollars every season this decade.
They will have a significant amount of money to spend this offseason and/or the next.
Given the way the Rockies approached the deadline and the comments about thinking that the foundation of the lineup is pretty good, it suddenly seems reasonable to assume that the DePodesta-led front office intends to spend aggressively much sooner than previously expected.
Obviously, this is all muddled further by the upcoming CBA negotiations. Depending on how things shake out with the next contract between the league and the players union, the economic landscape could become radically different than it currently looks.
With Rockies owner Dick Monfort a key figure on the league’s side of negotiations, however, it is entirely conceivable that he would want to make a show of investing into the team’s payroll after a deal is struck. Essentially that exact thing happened after the lockout in 2022 when the Rockies shockingly splurged on Bryant’s seven-year deal.
If a similar pattern unfolds this go around, let’s hope that the current front office is able to use the financial flexibility afforded to them much more effectively than the previous one. The last time a Rockies front office thought to spend their way out of a questionable major league roster the return was three straight 100-loss seasons.
In Rockies Land, we have a knee-jerk reaction that assumes the team is making mistakes. In fairness, the team earned that reaction but it’s worth remembering that the past doesn’t always need to be the future.
The Rockies not acting like a fully rebuilding team right now seems out of step with how many “smart” teams have approached situations like this… but not every good team tanked in order to build their talent pipeline.
Before the Los Angeles Dodgers current dynasty started, they threw money at the major league roster while also building the developmental system underneath it. It’s not impossible to do both at once. It’s just much more difficult. It requires either a ruthless diligence in trading every player at the peak of their value like the Tampa Bay Rays and the Milwaukee Brewers, or a willingness to spend money to a degree that those teams can’t or simply won’t.
In the comments of yesterday’s Rockpile, OhioRockie alluded to “building the plane while flying it.” In effect, that’s exactly what I think DePodesta and Byrnes are trying to do: rebuild the farm system for long-term sustainability while simultaneously trying to put together a wildcard-capable roster for the short-term. If the Rockies are willing to commit to pumping money into both projects, they could accomplish both with smart investments.
If they are going to try that, though, they need to commit to it fully despite the cost and difficulty. Attempting to go down that road and then balking at the combined cost of players and infrastructure would cause them to fall back into the familiar pattern of misguided attempts to paper over fundamentally bad rosters while also stunting the potential growth of the farm system.
On the Farm
Triple-A:Albuquerque Isotopes 7, Sugar Land Space Cowboys 6
This was a game of debuts!
After pitching to a 1.99 ERA over 68 innings at Double-A, Jack Mahoney took the mound for the Isotopes for the first time since being promoted to Triple-A. His first start was a success as he got through five PCL innings while only allowing two runs both of which came on as a result of a fourth inning home run from Space Cowboy CJ Alexander. The same can not be said for Mark Manfredi’s debut for the team after having been traded for Senzatela earlier in the week. Manfredi came in to pitch the eighth inning but did not manage to finish it on his own after allowing the Sugar Lands final four runs of the game.
At the plate Connor Norby made his debut for the team after coming over in the Vodnik trade on Monday. Norby made a great first impression on the Isotopes with a walk in the first and then a home run in the third. Not to be outdone by someone who just arrived, Veen (No. 9 PuRP) added a double and home run of his own bringing his season totals to 32 and 21 respectively. Overall the Isotopes combined for 11 hits, six of them for extra bases, and three walks to plate seven runs en route to their 56th victory.
Double-A:Binghamton Rumble Ponies 3, Hartford Yard Goats 1
A low scoring affair in Binghamton. Sam Weatherly acted as the opener and managed to get through two innings on 35 pitches. He allowed all three runs that the Rumble Ponies would score before giving way to Cade Denton who pitched five scoreless innings.
The real story was Binghamton starter R.J. Gordon mowing down Yard Goats. Gordon collected ten strikouts in just six innings of work and only allowed a single run, via a home run from right fielder Braylen Wimmer. Other than that home run the Yard Goats bats were largely silent collecting a total of four hits and a single walk.
High-A:Eugene Emeralds 5, Spokane Indians 1
Angel Jimenez’s struggled again in his third start at High-A. He threw 75 pitches and allowed three home runs in just four innings before being pulled. The trio of relievers that came in after Jimenez managed to keep the game relatively close as the only other run scored was a solo shot allowed by Seth Clausen. The solid relief pitching was not enough to make up for a dearth of offense as the team scattered only three hits, one of which was a double from Tanner Thach, and scored only a single run.
Low-A:Fresno Grizzlies 5, Visalia Rawhide 1
Brady Parker kept the Rawhide at bay by tossing six innings of one run ball while striking out five. This was more than enough leeway for the Grizzlies lineup to hit their way to victory. The lineup as a whole combined for ten hits and four walks though only Juan Martinez’ fourth inning triple went for extra bases. No one exemplified this death by a thousand cuts style offense more than Ashly Andujar (No. 20 PuRP) who led off and collected four hits and a pair of RBI.
After staying put at deadline, Moniak signs 2-year extension with Rockies | MLB.com
In case you hadn’t had a chance to look at the particulars of the Moniak extension, Thomas Harding has you covered.
TA: The new Rockies, same as the old rockies | Baseball Prospectus ($)
Mario Delgado Genzor digs through the Rockies trade deadline transactions as a whole and tries, as I just did, to make sense of what the plan moving forward is. It’s absolutely worth reading even if you’ve seen my thoughts above as it includes much more in-depth takes on each of the individual transactions.
McCarthy’s Charlie vibes have Rox thinking they found their leadoff answer | MLB.com
Now that the trade deadline is over it’s time to actually move on to talking about the actual baseball on the field. Here’s another piece from Thomas Harding digging into lineup construction and what McCarthy brings to the leadoff spot.
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