The very best stats are mirror images of each other. Last time we looked at offensive efficiency and it only makes perfect sense to turn around and look at defensive efficiency. When we look at both halves we get a much clearer picture as to how good a team really is and whether there are any hidden gems in there that could make noise come playoff time.
So, if you did not catch that particular article, I would strongly suggest going back and taking a look at it. Essentially, efficiency is rated by taking total runs scored or allowed and dividing it into hits, walks, and hit by pitches. We will make the same adjustment with home runs that we made with the offensive numbers to see what happens. As you might imagine, the Astros are near the bottom of this one as their units have served as mirror images for much of the season. Statistics are accurate coming into play on Wednesday.
Runs
Hits
Walks
HBP
Total
EFF
Red Sox
446
957
335
47
1339
.333
Tigers
456
905
362
50
1317
.346
Yankees
450
886
361
45
1292
.348
Guardians
506
959
395
45
1399
.362
White Sox
525
944
428
72
1444
.364
Mariners
485
975
300
52
1327
.365
Blue Jays
532
973
449
29
1451
.367
Rangers
526
998
353
49
1400
.376
Twins
598
1030
440
55
1525
.379
Rays
483
909
304
44
1257
.384
Angels
581
939
512
63
1514
.384
Astros
585
953
499
73
1525
.384
Orioles
572
1029
401
33
1463
.391
Royals
613
1064
452
46
1562
.392
Athletics
696
1117
479
60
1656
.420
Let’s start local and move our way out. The Astros pitching staff has been awful overall on the season, but as we saw in an earlier lab, most of that came in March and April. They are 13th in the American League in runs allowed over the full season, so it shouldn’t be any surprise that they are one of the worst teams in terms of efficiency. I’ll just say that the Athletics numbers are staggering on so many levels, but the rest of the league looks normal with one notable exception.
When I looked at the offensive chart, I noticed that the Rays were not nearly as efficient as they could be. We see the same thing here on the pitching end. They rest near the bottom in efficiency even though their overall record in terms of runs scored says they should be much better. I’m not a betting man, but if I were I might put a wager on them come playoff time because that is a baseball team that’s underlying numbers are much better than they are actually performing.
As for the hometown nine, they are 2nd in walks allowed and first in hit batsman. Thank God for the Angels because otherwise it wouldn’t even be close when we combine those two together. Eight AL teams have surrendered more hits than the Astros. So, when you look at raw ability, they should be in the middle of the pack and that is what we have seen from May 1st on.
As we saw with the offensive numbers, home runs dramatically impacts efficiency, so we should expect to see the same thing on the pitching side. So, what we are doing is simply removing home runs from the total base runners column and from the runs scored column (assuming solo shots for now) to see what happens to the efficiency rating.
HR
Adj Runs
Adj BR
EFF
Red Sox
117
329
1222
.269
Tigers
115
341
1202
.284
Yankees
117
333
1175
.283
Guardians
137
369
1262
.292
White Sox
128
397
1316
.302
Mariners
129
356
1198
.297
Blue Jays
127
405
1324
.306
Rangers
147
379
1253
.302
Twins
139
459
1386
.331
Rays
146
337
1111
.303
Angels
130
451
1384
.326
Astros
164
421
1361
.309
Orioles
129
443
1334
.332
Royals
153
460
1409
.326
Athletics
190
506
1466
.345
The Red Sox and Athletics are really mirror images of each other. Neither is historically bad or good compared to the very best and worst seasons on the bump (2018 and 2022 Astros are at the top since the DH). However, since this is an Astros site, we should focus in on the hometown nine. They are slightly better comparatively when we remove the home runs.
One of the things to come out “Moneyball” was the development of something called the “Beane count”. It was a crude metric where you compared the amount of home runs hit and home runs surrendered along with walks drawn and walks surrendered. In most seasons, if you are on the positive end of both of those then you probably have a pretty good baseball team. The opposite is obviously true as well. So, the Beane count for the Astros looks like this:
Home Runs: 162 for, 164 against = -2 HR Walks: 411 for, 504 against = -93 walks
These numbers predict that the Astros should not be a good team and when you look at the Pythagorean record you can see that the Astros currently sit at 58-64. For those unfamiliar, the Pythagorean record takes the runs scored and runs allowed and spits out an expected record. The Astros have surrendered more runs than they have scored, so they should not be above .500. Of course, there are any number of factors that could credibly explain why teams overperform or underperform. Some of those tend towards the luck end of the spectrum while others are structural with things like bullpen performance and other factors.
The Beane count is crude and it seems easy enough to say hit more dingers and walk more, but turning things around can be that simple. In the Astros case, they probably need to work on the pitching end of that equation. In particular, being 29th in walks allowed is not acceptable. Adding in being 30th in hit batters is also not a good thing. It will be interesting to see what happens at the end of the year when we look at these numbers again.
Oct 14, 2012; Cleveland, OH, USA; Fans during a game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Cleveland Browns at Cleveland Browns Stadium. Cleveland won 34-24. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
The recent history of the Cleveland Browns has been full of sadness upon sadness upon embarrassment. Even despite the Browns two playoff appearances under former HC Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland once again embarks on a new coaching staff, hoping to find that elusive winning formula that can last into the next decade and into the new domed stadium.
Browns fans have been a lot like the make believe Richmond soccer team from “Ted Lasso,” in that hope is not found and any time they’ve had it, the hope has killed them:
That uncertainty is reflected in expectations for the season. Nearly two-thirds of Browns fans (65%) predict their team will finish with just four to six wins, while 19% expect seven to nine wins and 15% believe they’ll manage just three wins or fewer.
Of note, only the Baltimore Ravens are found in the Top 10 of hopeful fanbases with the other three AFC North teams ranked 18th or below.
What do you think of these “hope” rankings? Pretty fitting given the talent on the teams near the bottom?
An ornamental wall clock outside the Harvey Nichols flagship store in the Knightsbridge district of London, UK, on Friday, Aug. 14, 2026. Mike Ashley's Frasers Group Plc acquired struggling Harvey Nichols out of insolvency, beating out rival retailer Next Plc for the British department store chain. Photographer: Betty Laura Zapata/Bloomberg via Getty Images | Bloomberg via Getty Images
Hickory starter Evan Siary went 5.2 innings, allowing two runs, striking out six and walking two. Michael Trausch struck out one and walked one in 1.2 scoreless innings.
Yolfran Castillo was 2 for 5 with a sotlen base. Marco Argudin homered and walked. Pablo Guerrero had a double and two walks. Kaden Carpenter had a homer and a walk. Jay McQueen had three hits and a stolen base. Sebastian Baquer had a pair of hits. Curley Martha had a hit.
Kamdyn Perry went 4.2 innings for Hub City, allowing a solo homer, walking three and striking out three. J’Briell Easley allowed two runs in 1.1 IP, walking one and striking out one.
Gleider Figuereo had a double. Paxton Kling had a pair of walks and a stolen base.
Frisco starter Dylan MacLean allowed five runs in 1.1 IP, including two homers, walking one and striking out two.
Rafe Perich was 2 for 4 with a double and a homer. Dylan Dreiling was 2 for 5 with a double and a homer. Sebastian Walcott had a pair of doubles. Malcolm Moore had a hit. Arturo Disla had a double and a walk.
Rehabbing Jack Leiter started for Round Rock, striking out three and walking one while using 48 pitches to throw 2.2 scoreless innings. Marc Church retired the one batter he faced. Dalton Pence allowed two runs in three innings, walking three and striking out two. Emiliano Teodo threw 37 pitches, 22 of them for strikes, while facing seven batters. He walked one of them and struck out the other six.
Rehabbing Danny Jansen was 1 for 3 and caught six innings. Logan O’Hoppe doubled.
CLEVELAND, OH - APRIL 29: Head Coach Darko Rajakovic of the Toronto Raptors stands for the National Anthem before the game against the Cleveland Cavaliers during Round One Game Five of the 2026 NBA Playoffs on April 29, 2026 at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland, Ohio. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Lauren Leigh Bacho/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
The Serbian tactician fits seamlessly with Toronto’s developmental direction and its win-now aspiration
When Darko Rajakovic took the helm in the summer of 2023, most viewed his hiring as an indication of redirection, given the imminent and eventual departures of franchise favourites, Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, and OG Anunoby. Three years later, the Raptors just made their win-now move and acquired Kawhi Leonard from the Los Angeles Clippers, albeit amid the ongoing investigation. Pairing Scottie Barnes with a generational superstar like Leonard suddenly opened a contention window for Toronto, and it is not one they will be wasting.
Given the immense expectations surrounding this squad’s success, head coach Rajakovic will be subject to as much scrutiny as anyone on this team. History has shown us that tacticians with no prior track record will always incur skepticism from fans and media alike, especially for a team of this calibre. Take Nick Nurse as an example. He was a long-time assistant coach of the Raptors before getting a promotion, but his achievement was overshadowed by the sentiments shared regarding the firing of that year’s Coach of the Year, Dwane Casey – some dismayed, others frustrated.
Nurse’s tactics were unconventional, to say the least, going to the extent of implementing high-school defensive schemes, like the Box-and-One, in an NBA Finals game, which actually paid dividends. Nurse’s hard-nosed, no-nonsense coaching style worked for that Raptors’ iteration, which was composed mostly of seasoned players who were receptive and thick-skinned enough to endure his criticisms.
The Raptors, however, are not constructed the way they used to be anymore, and they needed a new voice to command them. Nurse was let go because of a strained relationship with management and the seemingly unadaptable style that he infused within the young group.
Rajakovic is a well-renowned developmental coach who most notably groomed the newly dispersed Memphis Grizzlies core, with Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane being two of them. With an aging Leonard, surrounded by one of the NBA’s youngest rosters, there is no better coach to handle this team than Rajakovic. He is not new when it comes to refining raw talent that’ll fit seamlessly around Leonard, in hopes of winning another championship for Toronto.
Rajakovic’s Committee Approach
The main concern with the impending acquisition of Leonard has been what it has always been since his first stint almost eight years ago, and during his run with the Clippers — his load management. Assuming the trade pushes through, Leonard, now 35, will look to preserve his physical condition for the postseason, given his history with injuries. This creates a perfect scenario wherein Leonard can offload the pressure of playing heavy minutes night-in, night-out, at the same time build familiarity with Rajakovic’s system and chemistry with his teammates.
Rajakovic’s brand of coaching extends beyond his knack of unlocking players’ potential; however, the foundation of his philosophy remains in every facet of commanding a basketball team. From utilizing a deep 10-man rotation to reverting from Nurse’s effective but high-risk defensive tactics, one thing sits at its core — his preference for a committee approach.
The Raptors dished the third most assists, on average, at 29.2 per game, as Rajakovic hammered on making quick decisions with the ball, earning itself the nickname of “0.5 Offence.” Anchored in this philosophy, his players adapted instinctive cutting and constant off-the-ball movement to generate open looks, as this offence prefers high-percentage shots.
Where Nurse went all out, Darko went conservative. While Nurse was known to deploy aggressive defensive schemes, which required well-coordinated on-ball pressure, Rajakovic required only one on-ball defender across the half-court before settling to play half-court defence. It might not generate as many live-ball turnovers as Nurse did, but it also mitigates risks like leaving the corner open and allowing wide-open layups.
Due to availability concerns and player movement, Nurse made use of a traditional nine/ten-man rotation for the regular season, but narrowed it down to a condensed eight-man pool, with the starting five logging heavy minutes for every contest during their 2019 title run. On the contrary, Rajakovic kept a constant nine-man rotation in the postseason to allow himself personnel flexibility on matchups, given the injuries to Immanuel Quickley and Brandon Ingram.
Assuming Kawhi becomes a Raptor, Rajakovic’s committee approach constructs a competitive roster that’ll accompany him in his quest for a second title, given its current state. Unlike seven years ago, this Raptors’ squad is one of the NBA’s youngest, but is also one of its most promising and emerging groups among the bunch. The inclusion of highly touted young talents like Barnes and Collin Murray-Boyles meant that a reunion with Kawhi seemed more imminent than not.
Leonard was not who he was when he first got here, so is the team. With the right group of guys, a driving force like Leonard, and a coach to weave the pieces together, the Raptors might just be able to figure out a way to make it work and win the championship a second time.
The Columbus Blue Jackets have 48 days until opening night at Nationwide Arena. Today, we look at the history of jersey #48.
Let's take a look.
Marc Methot - 2006-12 - Methot was drafted by the Blue Jackets in the 6th round of the 2003 NHL Draft.
Methot played six years and 275 games for the CBJ, totaling 51 points on the Columbus blue line. He was the definition of a defensive defenseman.
On July 1, 2012, he was traded to the Ottawa Senators for future CBJ Captain Nick Foligno. After the trade to Ottawa, he would play another 349 NHL games.
He retired during the 2018-19 season after playing 9 games.
Cody Goloubef - 2011-18 - Goloubef was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2008 NHL Draft.
Goloubef played 5-plus years in Columbus and totaled 96 games. The defenseman totaled 18 points in those 96 games. He spent most of his time playing in the AHL for the Springfield Falcons and Cleveland Monsters. He totaled 77 points playing for the Columbus AHL organizations.
Columbus traded him to Colorado for Ryan Stanton on November 28, 2016. From there, he would bounce around the NHL until leaving for Europe in 2022. He signed to play for the Dundas Real McCoys of the Allan Cup Hockey League, a league that plays in Ontario in 24-25, but hasn't played since.
Calvin Thürkauf - 2019-20 - Thürkauf was a fourth round pick in 2016.
Calvin Thürkauf played a total of three NHL games in 2020 and had zero points. He played 514 games for the Monsters across three seasons.
He left for Europe in 2020 after COVID and never returned. He spent the last three years as the Captain of HC Lugano. He also represented Switzerland in the World Championships and the 2026 Olympic Games, where he totaled 14 points in 28 international games.
Who was your favorite #48?
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NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JULY 31: Francisco Lindor #12 of the New York Mets reacts following his seventh inning solo home run against the Miami Marlins at Citi Field on July 31, 2026 in New York City. (Photo by Evan Bernstein/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Meet the Mets
Luis Robert Jr. has kept his hot streak alive post-deadline, showing that maybe he should have garnered more interest than he did.
Jon Heyman presented a blueprint for bringing the Mets back to contention as the Tarik Skubal chase looms large for New York.
Anthony DiComo took to Reddit to answer some Mets-related questions.
Laura Albanese answered some Mets-related questions.
The Mets could look to pursue Hanshin Tigers star 3B Teruaki Sato to fill their glaring void at first base.
Howie Rose reflected on 40 years in the radio booth ahead of his impending retirement.
The Phillies dominated Twins in the Field of Dreams game, 7-1. Kyle Schwarber hit two home runs in the victory in Iowa.
Bryce Harper dressed the part with his head-to-toe corn-themed apparel.
Schwarber and Harper were excited to see some corn in last night’s Field of Dreams game.
Bryson Stott wore custom Field of Dreams cleats for the game.
The Phillie Phanatic made the most of his field trip to Iowa.
Cade Cavalli carried a no-hitter into the seventh and pitched eight one-hit innings with ten strikeouts to lead the Nationals past the Cubs 7-0.
The Marlins were walloped 13-1 by the Pirates.
Around Major League Baseball
Contenders’ aces filled up the latest Starting Pitcher Power Rankings.
Fangraphs’ Ben Clemens aimed to put Tarik Skubal back on the Tigers.
The Rays signed infielder Jorge Mateo to a major league contract.
The Red Sox placed set-up man Garrett Whitlock on the injured list and recalled Greg Weissert from Triple-A.
Boston got back in the win column with a 7-0 shutout victory against the Blue Jays. Payton Tolle’s gem played a big role in the win, as he struck out 14 batters.
The Tigers blanked the Guardians 3-0 without striking out a single batter, the first time an MLB team has accomplished the feat since the 2014 Tigers.
Yesterday’s Reds vs. White Sox game featured a benches clearing ball and Chicago starter David Martin getting ejected after plunking Sal Stewart. In the end, cooler heads prevailed, and the Reds emerged victorious by a 9-8 score.
The Angels blanked the Rangers 7-0. Mike Trout turned it back to 2018 with another big night.
Edwin Díaz blew his fourth save of the year and his third in one week (his ERA ballooned to 11.57 on the season) as the Dodgers fell 5-4 to the Brewers. On the bright side for LA, Max Muncy passed Eric Karros for home runs at Dodgers stadium with Karros on the call.
Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue
Allison McCague, Linda Surovich, and Maggie Wiggin talked about the Mets being a slightly more watchable disaster on the newest episode of A Pod of Their Own.
This Date in Mets History
Stephen Matz carried a no-hitter into the eighth inning in a 5-1 Mets victory over the Padres on this date in 2016.
BOSTON, MA - JULY 25: Catcher Brandon Valenzuela #59 of the Toronto Blue Jays congratulates pitcher Dylan Cease #84 after the sixth inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on July 25, 2026 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo By Winslow Townson/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Following a dance with the Mariners at home, the Yankees are heading north of the border for a three-game set with a largely struggling Toronto club. Despite looking up at a significant deficit in the AL East standings, the Blue Jays are at least playing some decent ball of late, winning five of their last seven games and on the heels of a four-game set with the Red Sox, of which they won three.
The Yankees have been doing enough to get by of late, and will head into this East matchup with some of their best pitching on tap. They’ll have hope the bats can do enough to support the likes of Gerrit Cole and Cam Schlittler and take a few games from the middling Jays.
Friday: Gerrit Cole vs. Shane Bieber (7:15pm Eastern)
Cole will make his 15th start of the season to kick things off in Toronto, as the 2023 Cy Young Award winner will look to continue a stretch of very solid starts. He is boasting a respectable 3.35 ERA and a 3.36 FIP to match in his 80.2 innings thus far. In his last three outings, the veteran has punched out 21 batters in 18.2 innings, while allowing just three runs in that stretch. Since his late start to the season, Cole has been largely himself outside of a couple of duds, and will hope to keep the good stuff pumping on Friday.
He’ll square off with 2020 Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber, who has not quite enjoyed the same fate this season. Once one of the more promising pitchers in baseball, with a world-class ability to rack up Ks, Bieber has suffered multiple lost seasons in a row due to injury, and has reached new lows in 2026. The righty made his season debut in late June, and has a FIP approaching six in just over 40 innings. While he’s had a handful of good outings, plenty of bad ones have been sprinkled in as well. Bieber is coming off of five earned runs and a pair of homers in 5.2 innings against the Phillies.
Saturday: Cam Schlittler vs. TBD (3:07pm Eastern)
The Yankees will follow up their veteran stud with their young one, as Cam Schlittler makes his way to the bump on Saturday. The 25-year-old has been a true force this season, leading the American League in fWAR and posting the lowest ERA across the fourth-most innings in all of baseball. He is a legitimate Cy Young contender, and has been a joy to watch this season. His latest outing saw him go seven strong innings, allowing just one run while striking out 11. Schlittler has allowed three earned runs across 13 innings of work against the Jays this season.
For the Jays on Saturday, things are still up in the air as far as the starter goes. Simeon Woods-Richardson (10 starts this year), and Lazaro Estrada, who’s bounced around different levels in 2026, are possible options for the Jays.
Sunday: Ryan Weathers vs. Dylan Cease (1:37pm Eastern)
In Sunday’s finale, Ryan Weathers will be making his 24th start of the season for the Yankees. On the whole, the lefty has been good for New York, posting solid ERA and FIP marks in the mid-threes, while striking out more than a batter per inning in a fairly full workload. The 26-year-old southpaw has had the good stuff of late, as he’s allowed just a pair of earned runs to cross in 24.1 innings over his last four starts on the mound. While he may not carry the weight of a Cole or Schlittler, Weathers has been a major contributor to this team, and will close things out in Toronto.
The Blue Jays also have a strong Cy Young candidate, Dylan Cease, who projects to take the mound on Sunday afternoon. The righty has always been a very high-ceiling hurler, but we are seeing perhaps the best of him in 2026. His 2.41 FIP is tops in the AL, and he’s striking out a whopping 36.1 percent of batters. A first-year Blue Jay, having signed a nine-figure deal, Cease is proving his worth every fifth day for Toronto, and the Yankee lineup will have their hands full wrapping things up for the series. In his last outing against the Yankees back in May, New York tagged him with five runs and a pair of long balls as the possible Cy Young favorite took the loss.
DETROIT, MICHIGAN - OCTOBER 26: Head coach Joe Mazzulla of the Boston Celtics looks over his dry erase board during a timeout during a game against the Detroit Pistons at Little Caesars Arena on October 26, 2024 in Detroit, Michigan. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mike Mulholland/Getty Images) | Getty Images
How do you eat a whale? Well, in this case, the 82-game gauntlet of an NBA season. The old adage is to approach the NBA season game-by-game, but it’s always helpful to look at it in chunks, just like the team’s equipment manager might when planning road trips and homestands. In that spirit, let’s try and predict the Celtics record.
at Detroit Pistons, New York Knicks, Chicago Bulls, Brooklyn Nets, Chicago Bulls: The Celtics kick off the entire NBA season with an opener in Motor City on Tuesday, October 20th with an odd 3 pm EST tip-off. Maybe that’s for an international audience. Regardless, that’s the #1 and #2 seed from last year ushering in the new year of hoops. Boston is then rewarded with a four-game homestand that includes a visit from the defending champs and a 4-1 start to get 2026-2027 rolling.
at Orlando Magic, at Houston Rockets, Milwaukee Bucks, at Charlotte Hornets, at Milwaukee Bucks, at Philadelphia 76ers, at Toronto Raptors: If you take a 30,000-foot view of the schedule, it’s a lot of long homestands and road trips. Thankfully, the Celtics rank 20th in miles travelled for the entire year. This roadie includes Boston’s first look at Jaylen Brown, LeBron James, and the 76ers — after facing them twice in the preseason — and some of the upstarts in the East with Orlando and Toronto on the docket. Going above-.500 would put Boston at around 8-4.
Dallas Mavericks, Orlando Magic, at Denver Nuggets, at Sacramento Kings, at Golden State Warriors, at Washington Wizards: Boston has 16 back-to-backs next season, tied for most in the league with the Nets and Pelicans. Two of them are part of this five-games-in-eight-nights stretch with the team making their first foray into California. 12-6 with nearly a quarter of the season under their belt.
On the flip side, some positives:
👍Lots of holiday games: Black Friday, Xmas, NYD, MLK Day, Valentine's Day, Easter 👍Scheduled to be on road for only 5 days of December 👍2x homestands of 6+ games 👍4 of first 5 are at home 👍C's will be home for Thanksgiving & Xmas!
Atlanta Hawks, at San Antonio Spurs, at Dallas Mavericks, Charlotte Hornets: Hosting the Hawks wraps up the Celtics’ NBA Cup four-game regular season. It’s a group of up-and-comers that also includes the Hornets, Bulls, and Wizards. Boston should rep Group C in the playoff round with a 3-1 record in group play and an overall 15-7.
*Let’s go out on a limb and say the Celtics raise Banner 18.5 at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis and get to 17-7, too.
at Brooklyn Nets, Washington Wizards, Washington Wizards, Utah Jazz, Detroit Pistons, Portland Trail Blazers, Miami Heat, Cleveland Cavaliers: A seven-game homestand that includes waking up in their own bed for Christmas is such a treat for NBA players. It also has the only home-and-home on the schedule with hometown hero A.J. Dybantsa visiting TD Garden with the Wizards. A strong showing pushes Boston to 24-8 before the new year.
From Dec. 14 until Jan. 29, the Celtics will play:
– Seven straight home games – Then six straight road games – Then nine of their next 10 at home https://t.co/rNRBAA3mgn
at Chicago Bulls, at Utah Jazz, at Portland Trail Blazers, at Phoenix Suns, at Los Angeles Lakers, at Los Angeles Clippers: This marks the Odyssey portion of the schedule. This six-game road trip marks the longest of the year with CelticsBlog’s Noa Dalzell ranking it the most difficult:
The Celtics haven’t had a 6-game road trip since March of 2025, when they became the first team in franchise history to go a perfect 6-0 in one road trip. They’ll look to replicate that success this winter when they face three Western Conference playoff teams from last year, and a Jazz squad that could be much-improved. The Bulls and Clippers should be easier outs, but there’s no telling how competitive this road trip will end up being.
There are some tough outs, but really, their biggest opponent might just be fatigue and monotony as the NBA gauntlet nears the halfway point. A split gets the Celtics to 27-11.
Houston Rockets, New York Knicks, Brooklyn Nets, at Washington Wizards, Indiana Pacers, Philadelphia 76ers, Charlotte Hornets, Toronto Raptors, Los Angeles Clippers, Phoenix Suns: Home sweet home with nine of the next ten games at the Garden. Next year, the NBA trade deadline is on February 11th. The Celtics and their front office will have a long runway in January to see just how good this team is and what holes need to be plugged. There’s just one back-to-back that includes Brown’s homecoming on the 21st. 34-14.
at Toronto Raptors, Los Angeles Lakers, at Charlotte Hornets, at Atlanta Hawks, at Philadelphia 76ers: Boston won’t leave the Eastern Standard Time zone for this road trip, but I’ll predict a bit of a mid-year stumble to drop them to 36-17.
Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, Minnesota Timberwolves, Toronto Raptors, at Oklahoma City, at Memphis Grizzlies: Another homestand, a few battles against the West’s elite before the All-Star break, and the aforementioned trade deadline.
If the Celtics are 39-20 at this point, it’s most likely that President of Basketball Operations Brad Stevens doesn’t make a big move that might disrupt the chemistry of the team…or he’s made a big trade to push them over the top. Let’s operate the rest of the way as if a deal was made on the edges, but nothing big with the team relatively healthy. Fingers crossed.
Celtics will have 27 nationally televised games this season:
Cleveland Cavaliers, at Minnesota Timberwolves, at Indiana Pacers, at Detroit Pistons: The Celtics have their first three-game losing streak of the season. 40-23 has them in the hunt to host a first round series in April.
Philadelphia 76ers, at Chicago Bulls, Memphis Grizzlies, Oklahoma City Thunder, at New York Knicks, Sacramento Kings, Orlando Magic, New Orleans Pelicans, at Brooklyn Nets, San Antonio Spurs: This might be the most consequential stretch of the year with games against title contenders and bottom feeders. The Celtics will have to at least split games against the 76ers, Knicks, Thunder, and Spurs and take care of business with the Grizzlies, Kings, Pelicans, and Nets to really be considered one of the elites. 47-26.
at Miami Heat, at New Orleans Pelicans, at Indiana Pacers, at Cleveland Cavaliers, Miami Heat, at New York Knicks, at Orlando Magic, at Atlanta Hawks, Milwaukee Bucks: Last season, the Celtics finished with 56 wins to clinch the 2nd seed. Their final kick this year will include seven of their last nine games on the road with visits to Miami, Indiana, Cleveland, New York, Orlando, and Atlanta — all teams predicted to be in the playoff mix. Optimistically, 52-30 would be a strong season for this team which would have made them #4 last year.
Division rivals New York and Toronto open a three-game weekend series Friday night at Rogers Centre with both clubs chasing the same ultimate goal but from very different vantage points. The Yankees (68-53) sit in second place in the AL East, 6.5 games behind division-leading Tampa Bay but in control of the top Wild Card spot. The Blue Jays (59-64) are fourth in the division, 16.5 games back, but have climbed to within two games of the final Wild Card position.
The Yankees arrive in Toronto after taking two of three from the Mariners in the Bronx. New York opened the series with a 4-1 victory and followed with a 10-5 win but missed out on a sweep yesterday when Seattle took the finale 1-0. Logan Gilbert and three relievers combined on the four-hit shutout.The lone run came on a Weston Wilson solo homer in the second inning off Max Fried. The Yankees have won four of their last five games.
Toronto comes into the series with renewed hopes for a postseason berth after taking three of four from the Red Sox. The Jays won the first three games of the series, taking 2-1, 5-3 and 6-4 victories before Boston salvaged the finale with a 7-0 win yesterday. In that finale, rookie left-hander Payton Tolle shut down Toronto's offense with eight innings of two-hit baseball, while Caleb Durbin broke the game open with an eighth-inning grand slam. Toronto has won 11 of their last 17 games to re-engage in the race for a spot in the playoffs.
Tonight’s pitching matchup features a pair of veterans, Gerrit Cole (6-5, 3.35 ERA) and Shane Bieber (3-2, 5.48 ERA).Cole is coming off one of his strongest outings of the season. On August 8 against the Braves, the Yankees’ ace worked seven innings, allowing two runs on six hits while striking out nine without allowing a walk in a 5-4 win for the Bronx Bombers. The nine K’s pushed Cole over the 1,000-strikeout milestone as a Yankee. He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. Bieber's most recent start came August 9 in Philadelphia. The right-hander took a no-decision despite allowing five earned runs on six hits and three walks across 5 2/3 innings in a 7-6 loss to the Phillies. However, before that outing, he had shown encouraging signs, including a victory over Houston on August 3 in which he allowed just one run while striking out six over 5 2/3 innings. His season has been uneven. In four of his nine starts, Bieber has given up four or more runs and in the other five he has allowed two or fewer.
Lets dive into tonight’s matchup and find a sweat or two.
We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
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Game Details and How to Watch: Yankees vs. Blue Jays
Date: Friday, August 14, 2026
Time: 7:15PM EST
Site: Rogers Centre
City: Toronto, ON
Network/Streaming: Apple TV
Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.
The Latest Odds: Yankees vs. Blue Jays – August 14
The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:
Moneyline: New York Yankees (-147), Toronto Blue Jays (+137)
Spread: Yankees -1.5 (+113), Bue Jays +1.5 (-136)
Total: 8.0 runs
Starting Pitchers and their Stats: Yankees vs. Blue Jays for August 14
Blue Jays: Shane Bieber Season Totals: 42.2 IP, 3-2, 5.48 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 32K, 23 BB
Trent Grisham has hit in 5 straight games (9-21) with 3 HRs and 7 RBIs
Ben Rice is 4-36 (.111) in August
Austin Wells has hit safely in 6 straight games (6-16)
Vlad Guerrero Jr. is 12-35 (.343) with 2 HRs in his career against Gerrit Cole
Alejandro Kirk is 9-24 (.375) with 1 HR against Cole is his career
Paul Goldschmidt is 3-6 (.500) in his career against Shane Bieber
Andres Gimenez had his 7-game hitting streak snapped yesterday (0-2)
Ernie Clement is 8-47 (.170) in August
Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!
Top Betting Trends & Insights: Yankees vs. Blue Jays
The Blue Jays are 58-65 on the Run Line this season
The Yankees are 57-64 on the Run Line this season
The OVER has cashed 61 times in games involving Toronto this season (61-58-4)
The OVER has cashed 51 times in games involving the Yankees this season (51-66-4)
Expert picks & predictions: Yankees vs. Blue Jays for August 14
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for tonight’s game between the Jays and the Yankees:
Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Yankees on the Moneyline.
Spread: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Yankees on the Run Line.
Total: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Game Total of 8.0.
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The Boston Red Sox head into tonight's series opener against the Pittsburgh Pirates as the -127 moneyline favorites behind left-hander Jake Bennett. The first pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET at PNC Park.
While Bubba Chandler has pitched well, my Red Sox vs Pirates predictions are backing Bennett to outduel the right-hander.
Who will win Red Sox vs Pirates today: Red Sox (-126)
Jake Bennett has been brilliant for the Boston Red Sox this season, posting a 3.21 xERA over his last five appearances while allowing just 0.62 HR/9 and limiting walks.
He has also held opponents to a 3.2% barrel rate over the last month, which matters against a Pittsburgh Pirates lineup that struggles badly against lefties. Pittsburgh owns an 89 wRC+ versus southpaws compared to an 111 mark vs. righties.
Bubba Chandler is in good form with a 2.65 FIP across his previous two outings, but the hurler's 5.91 xERA and 43.3% hard-hit rate during that span show vulnerability. With Boston carrying a 125 wRC+ over its last 13 games, the Red Sox hold the edge.
Play this pick up to -140.
COVERS INTEL: The Red Sox have been swining better on the road, posting a 105 wRC+ compared to a 93 mark at Fenway Park. That gives Boston another matchup advantage against Chandler tonight.
Red Sox vs Pirates Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (+109)
The total is too low, and I’m targeting the Over. Boston’s offense has a 106 wRC+ over the last week, and although the power hasn’t been there, the Red Sox have still averaged nearly five runs per game during that span.
Pittsburgh’s lineup is also in decent form, posting a 107 wRC+ over its previous six contests while averaging nearly the same number of runs. Offense may be harder to find against Bennett and a Red Sox bullpen with a 2.78 xERA over its last 60 frames, but the Pirates may not need to do too much if Boston produces.
There’s vulnerability once Chandler exits, with Pittsburgh’s relief corps owning a 4.47 FIP lately.
Play this pick up to -130.
Red Sox vs Pirates home run prediction: Wilyer Abreu (+388)
Wilyer Abreu is smashing baseballs recently. The slugger has logged five home runs in his last 12 games while posting a .415 ISO. Abreu also owns a 56.3% hard-hit rate and 12.1% barrel rate over the last week.
He’s consistently getting lift on the baseball, with a 20-degree launch angle during that span and a 50% fly-ball rate, and that matters here. While Chandler doesn’t give up a ton of fly balls, the Bucs’ bullpen has posted a 42.4% fly-ball rate over the last week while surrendering 1.14 HR/9.
Play this pick down to +300.
Quinn Allen's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 50-60, -17.47 units
Over/Under bets: 61-46, +7.84 units
Red Sox vs Pirates weather
Weather at PNC Park looks clean tonight, with partly cloudy skies early before clearer conditions around first pitch. Temperatures should fall from 78°F to 74°F, winds are light around 3–5 mph, and rain chances stay low.
Overall, weather should be fairly neutral with no real delay concern or major scoring boost.
Red Sox vs Pirates odds
Moneyline: Red Sox -127 | Pirates +122
Run line: Red Sox -1.5 (+133) | Pirates +1.5 (-138)
Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-108) | Under 7.5 (+104)
Red Sox vs Pirates trend
The Boston Red Sox have cashed the moneyline in 23 of their last 35 away games (+10.25 units for a 24% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Pirates.
How to watch Red Sox vs Pirates and game info
Location
PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
Date
Friday, Aug. 14, 2026
First pitch
6:40 p.m. ET
TV
NESN, SportsNet Pittsburgh
Red Sox starting pitcher
Jake Bennett (7-5, 3.17 ERA)
Pirates starting pitcher
Bubba Chandler (5-8, 4.26 ERA)
Red Sox vs Pirates latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA - AUGUST 12: Jarred Kelenic #25 of the Texas Rangers reacts after striking out swinging during the eighth inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on August 12, 2026 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Ryan Sirius Sun/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Angels 7, Rangers 0
Well that was pretty terrible.
Jacob deGrom left the game after two innings with triceps soreness. That’ll ruin your night right there, regardless of whatever else happened.
deGrom said afterwards he couldn’t get his triceps loose warming up for the second inning, that he hadn’t felt that before but that he hoped it was no big deal and he’d make his next start.
I hope so, too.
The alternative to deGrom making his next start would either be Jordan Montgomery, who allowed four runs in two innings of relief in this game, or Jack Leiter, who threw 2.2 scoreless innings in a rehab start on Thursday.
With Nathan Eovaldi already on the injured list, no deGrom would be, problematic, shall we say.
To say the least.
The hope was that the return of Cody Bradford and Jordan Montgomery would give the Rangers starting pitching depth to spare. It was suggested that the Rangers didn’t need to make a move for relief arms at the deadline, what with Bradford and Montgomery and Leiter coming back to provide reinforcements.
Bradford has looked pretty good in his two starts.
Jordan Montgomery, on the other hand, has looked like he’s cooked.
His sinker averaged 89.8 mph in this game, his fastball 89.1 mph. Both pitches were in the low 93s in 2023.
Losing 3-4 mph on your fastball is going to make it hard for you to succeed.
So yeah, probably Jack Leiter gets the nod if/when deGrom can’t go, after going 48 pitches for Round Rock, because what else are you going to do? Cal Quantrill is already in the rotation, filling in for Eovaldi. Jordan Montgomery ain’t the answer.
The Angels’ decision to fire their pitching coaches before Tuesday’s game now looks like a sage move, what with the Rangers’ offense being helpless the past three games.
I whopping five hits in the game. Jarred Kelenic, pinch hitting for Brandon Nimmo because the game was out of reach, had one. So did Evan Carter, Nicky Lopez and Austin Wynns, and when those three are leading the offensive charge, well…
And yet somehow, the Rangers are just a half-game back of a playoff spot, trailing the Tigers, who have moved into WC3. And they are just two back in the American League West.
What a weird year.
Jacob deGrom hit 99.0 mph with his fastball, averaging 97.8 mph. Peyton Gray’s fastball reached 94.2 mph. Jordan Montgomery topped out at 91.1 mph with his sinker. Ben Peoples’ fastball maxed out at 95.8 mph. Cole Winn’s fastball touched 96.4 mph. Tyler Alexander hit 93.0 mph with his fastball.
Wyatt Langford had a 109.4 mph single. Joc Pederson had a 104.9 mph groundout and a 100.5 mph fly out. Ezequiel Duran had a 103.8 mph fly out and a 102.1 mph fly out. Justin Foscue had a 103.5 mph fly out. Austin Wynns had a 101.9 mph E6.
On to Sacramento, where things will hopefully go better.
PHOENIX, ARIZONA - APRIL 05: Ketel Marte #4 of the Arizona Diamondbacks hugs Martin Perez #33 of the Atlanta Braves after the end of the third inning at Chase Field on April 05, 2026 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Coming off a series win against the New York Mets, the Atlanta Braves head back to Truist Park for a three-game set with the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Braves enter the series with 73 wins and are 7-3 in their last 10. The D-Backs have a less impressive record with 64 wins and going .500 over their last 10 games.
The Braves have yet to announce their starters for the weekend series, while Arizona is sending out Brandon Pfaadt, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Michael Soroka. The series gets underway tonight at 7:15 ET.
More Braves News:
Walt Weiss spoke with the media on Thursday, providing updates on Robert Suarez, Spencer Schwellenbach, and AJ Smith-Shawver.
Herick Hernandez recorded 11 strikeouts in Triple-A Gwinnett on Wednesday. More in the minor league recap.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - MAY 30: Tony Gonsolin #26 of the Los Angeles Dodgers throws a pitch in the first inning against the New York Yankees at Dodger Stadium on May 30, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Former Dodger Tony Gonsolin has found a new home, as the right-hander signed with the Kansas City Royals on Thursday, per a team announcement. The financial details have yet to be disclosed, notes Darragh McDonald of MLB Trade Rumors, but Gonsolin is signed through the rest of the 2026 season and has a club option for the 2027 season. He has been placed on the 15-day injured list, and his status is unknown.
We have signed RHP Tony Gonsolin to a Major League contract for 2026 with a club option for 2027. Tony has been placed on the 15-day Injured List.
RHP Eli Morgan has been designated for assignment.
Gonsolin pitched in parts of six seasons spanning from 2019-2025, helping the Dodgers win the 2020 World Series and making the National League All-Star team in 2022, finishing that season with a 16-1 record. Gonsolin made just seven starts in 2025 once he returned from Tommy John surgery, posting a 3-2 record with a 5.00 ERA over 36 innings before elbow discomfort and an internal brace surgery ended his season. The Dodgers designated him for assignment in November before he elected free agency.
The Dodgers shored up their catching depth, as they signed Chadwick Tromp to a minor league deal on Thursday. Oklahoma City Comets announcer Alex Freedman was the first to report the signing.
Tromp has played in parts of seven seasons with the San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves and Baltimore Orioles since debuting in 2020, and he has appeared in 21 big league games with both Atlanta and Baltimore. Tromp has slashed .163/.160/.184 with a double and four RBI across 51 plate appearances in the big leagues this year, while he is slashing .200/.280/.347 with three home runs and 12 RBI across 30 Triple-A games.
Shohei Ohtani continues to trend in the right direction with his throwing program, as he was able to throw from a 200-foot distance. Sonja Chen of MLB.com reports that the next step for Ohtani would be a bullpen session off a mound, although there are no set dates for said sessions yet. Chen notes that while the Dodgers have taken their time with Ohtani’s progression, they are still eager to see him return to his two-way status.
“I still feel just his health is kind of the main thing anyway,” manager Dave Roberts said. “Regardless of having Skubal or not, or having Snell back, you still have to treat him individually as what is best for him. It is additive, given he’s a two-way player, to get those innings, for sure.”
Eric Lauer gave the Dodgers much-needed length on Wednesday against Kansas City, going 6 1/3 innings while tossing 112 pitches in a 4-2 win. Looking ahead to the postseason, his status as a rotation member will be jeopardized once more reinforcements make their returns, and Maddie Lee of the Los Angeles Times delves into which current starters will be the odd men out of the playoff rotation.
PHILADELPHIA, PA - JULY 12: Kendry Chourio #34 of the Kansas City Royals looks on in the clubhouse prior to the 2026 All-Star Futures Game Presented by Nike at Citizens Bank Park on Sunday, July 12, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
MLB Pipeline updated their top 100 list and there are now 3 Royals on it:
A year ago, we added a dozen members of the Draft Class of 2025 to the Top 100, the same number that was added in 2024. This time around, we’re being a bit more stingy with spots, putting just 10 from the most recent class on the Top 100, though two of them are debuting higher than anyone from last year’s Draft crop did.
So, if the Royals had picked either of the players who went after them (Booth, Burress), they’d have 4 Top 100 prospects today instead of 3. I get that where they end up is much more important than where they are today. But early returns are less than ideal.
I’m definitely no prospect guy. There are people on this site good at that. I’m not. So maybe this is a really stupid read of it all. But it doesn’t look great, using my non-expert eyes.
Rose was picked under slot and ranked accordingly. It’s not like he’s 101st on the new top 100 either, as David Shields and Blake Mitchell ranked higher than him in the Royals system and I doubt Mitchell, in particular, was close to the top 100. But most of that underslot money went to the #89th ranked guy (Slightom). They picked him at 56th, and gave him more than $1M over slot and he only slides in at 12th. Wait, so you picked a guy well below his ranking /and/ had to give him a bunch over slot? Yikes. They had enough left over to give Camden Johnson over slot and he comes in at 23rd. But because they had to give Slightom so much, they didn’t have enough to sign their other potential overslot, 19th-rounder Hudson DeVaughan.
But, hey, that’s just one ranking system. And rankings are finnicky. Let’s see where Baseball America has the Royals in their newest rankings:
(scroll, scroll, scroll, scroll)
Kansas City Royals Royals Top 30 Prospects Preseason Ranking: 21 Midseason Ranking: 19
Current Top 100 Prospects: RHP Kendry Chourio (No. 33), OF Angeibel Gomez (No. 47), SS Josh Hammond (No. 55)
Key 2026 Graduations: C Carter Jensen, RHP Mason Black, RHP Beck Way, RHP Luinder Avila
2026 Prospects Traded Away: None
Key 2026 Additions: Gomez, OF Zion Rose, RHP Taylor Rabe, RHP Jack Slighton, RHP Maxx Yehl, RHP Lucas Braun, LHP Carter Holton
The Skinny: The Royals have a trio of top 60 prospects for the first time in a while, but the group of players right behind them need to take a step forward.
So you’re saying that having a draft that isn’t highly regarded and then holding onto all of your players at the deadline despite being 20-odd games below .500 is not great for your rankings? The most disheartening thing to me was that they had been creeping up the charts over the last year or so. But it feels like they gave a lot of it back.
This year, he’s been dominant. Chourio has a 2.06 ERA across two levels, first posting a 1.88 ERA in 11 starts for Single-A before a promotion to High-A in June. In Quad Cities, he has a 2.35 ERA, with 35 strikeouts and just five walks in 30 2/3 innings. MLB Pipeline’s No. 65 prospect, he pitched in the Futures Game during All-Star festivities this year. At a career-high 78 2/3 innings, Chourio hasn’t pitched since July 25, but will get back on the mound as early as this week, part of a long-term workload plan.
The only 18-year-old to pitch for a High-A affiliate this year, Chourio is clearly talented, armed with a 94-98 mph fastball and a curveball, changeup and slider. His pitchability is advanced already and something he’s continuously improving.
“The goal is to not throw hard, it’s to have pitchability,” Chourio said. “With all [my] pitches, to have a motive behind every single one of them. Whether it’s a fastball, making sure the location of the pitch is good. Making sure you get the curveball in the zone, and executing the changeup, throwing it in or out of the zone.”
At The Star, Jaylon Thompson profiles Randy Dobnak. Just a reminder that minor league players make next to nothing and have to moonlight as Uber drivers to pay the bills.
Long before Randy Dobnak became a shooting star in a lost galaxy that is the Kansas City Royals 2026 campaign, he was scrolling through available rides on his local Uber app.
It was a source of income. And for Dobnak, a chance to nurture a lifelong dream that hadn’t begun to bear fruit.
“I’d drive around Pittsburgh for a little bit just to see how it was,” Dobnak said. “Make some extra money because we didn’t make much at all in the minor leagues.”
Here’s a couple of stories from The Athletic ($) that aren’t specifically about the Royals but do talk about Royals players.
Eric Hosmer writes about the “3 best leaders” he played with:
Raul Ibanez, Royals outfielder
…In 2014, he gave a speech to us. We were playing against the White Sox, and we were in the crappy clubhouse they have on the visiting side.
He basically talked to us about what opposing teams thought of us: Did we realize how good we were? Did we realize other teams fear us?
For us to hear that was so important. We were all young on that team, and Raul had just gotten done hitting ninth-inning homers for the Yankees a couple of years before.
It just clicked for all of us: This guy’s a legend so if people really do think of us like that, maybe we’re really good and we should play with some confidence.
John Buck, a former major-league catcher, told me an even weirder story. Buck played in the big leagues for 11 seasons. But one year he suffered a concussion, and as he tried to recover, he started overthinking. When he returned to the field, he struggled throwing the ball back to the pitcher, a real-life example of Rube Baker, the young catcher with the yips in the film “Major League II.”
When the game was live, Buck could throw a dime to second base to cut down a base stealer. But when it came to softly tossing the ball back to the pitcher, he felt paralyzed.
“If there was a foul ball and the ball was dead, I was very conscious and I would have to whip that s— back at the pitcher like I was throwing it to second,” Buck told me. “How weird is that?”
This is probably where I’d have written about the Field of Dreams game. Like, for instance, it was a giant Hall of Fame festival with 26 members in attendance:
This was the largest such gathering at a ballpark, not including the annual ceremonies at the Hall of Fame in upstate New York, since the All-Star Game in 2008 that feted the final season at old Yankee Stadium.
Of course, I couldn’t see it as it was on Netflix. But, hey, MLB got an extra couple million bucks for it over showing it on Fox where anyone with a TV could see it.
(There’s also a rumor that the Royals will be playing the Red Sox for the Field of Dreams game next season, but it’s not confirmed.)
Speaking of which, NBC now has the rights to the Wild Card round. On the positive side, two games per day will be broadcast on NBC. On the negative, the other two will either be on NBCSN or Peacock.
Since there’s not much Royals news, how about one more story from around the league, concerning another AL Central team, the Tigers. Ben Clemens asks whether the Tigers would have been better off if they had kept Tarik Skubal, et al:
The Detroit Tigers are one of the hottest teams in baseball. Since the calendar flipped to August, they’ve gone 7-3, scoring more than six runs per game in the process. In a muddled American League, that puts them right in the thick of the AL Central and Wild Card races. That, in turn, means they’re back in the hunt for a World Series ring. This burst of activity has them about as likely to make the playoffs (and win a ring) as they’ve been in the last few months, in fact; they’re back above 30% to reach October after dropping as low as 18% the day they traded Tarik Skubal.
That feels weird! Less than two weeks ago, the Tigers traded their best player, perhaps the best pitcher in baseball, for three prospects. They followed that up by trading Casey Mize, who had briefly inherited the title of top Tigers pitcher. It was a classic deadline sale – not a thread-the-needle plan with some additions and some subtractions, but a declaration that the plan was to get ‘em next year, and the years after that…
…Next, I got even more theoretical. I took some distributional studies that got left on the cutting room floor when I updated prospect valuations and worked out, more or less, the odds that prospects of the caliber traded for Skubal and Mize would turn into average regulars or better, plus the average WAR per year delivered in those outcomes. I also looked at the last six years of Tigers teams to figure out how many extra wins adding players like that to replace weak links would be worth (limiting those weak links to the rotation and the outfield, to match the prospects). I worked out that the guys traded to the Tigers project to boost their average projected wins by around 1.2 per year.
At this point, I’ll stop and point out that I’m doing a lot of approximating, so the error bars are large here. But with that caveat, we can do the math. Say that the Tigers bounce around between 78 and 90 projected wins for the next six years, and take the average of those World Series-odds-per-win sensitivities. Multiply that by the 1.2 wins per year I think the extra prospects are “worth.” Multiply that by six years of team control. You get an added 3.3 percentage points of World Series odds, comfortably more than the boost they’d receive from having Skubal and Mize the rest of the way this year. That might understate it, too. If the Tigers didn’t sell, they likely would have bought, but probably only on the margin, considering where they were in the standings and their underperformance over the first four months of the season. The risk of going all-in would have been too high. While we don’t know the counterfactual there, it’s reasonable to think that it would’ve made their future teams even a little worse, for small present benefit, amplifying the effect I’ve already measured here.
It’s weird to think that the high-level prospects only increase their chances by 1.2 wins per year. Then again, new players don’t just take an empty spot on the field, they replace an existing player who might be good or bad. I’m not entirely sure I buy it – as Clemens says, he does “a lot of approximating”. I only gave you the beginning and the end above – go read the rest, if you’re curious. It’s an interesting thought exercise.
But, hey, we’re reached the “Onion is clowning your team” stage of a lost season:
My scorecard of choice when I’m at the ballpark is the Eephus League Halfliner. I use a Blackwing 602 pencil. I told you…I’m deadly serious about keeping score. I never use a pen. My penmanship is terrible, so I’m often dissatisfied with how something goes on the paper so I use the eraser for a re-do quite often. I also make plenty of mistakes.
For tonight’s exercise, I’m scoring on an iPad using a file from Lou Spirito’s THIRTY81 Project. I’m enough of a sicko that I’ll keep score at home sometimes and I use his printed PDFs when I do. This is my first time scoring on an iPad, so we’ll see how it goes! There is a high level of confidence that it will not replace my pencil and paper.
I used to take score at every game I went to. However, once MLB went to its draconian bag policies in most stadiums, I gave it up because it became such a hassle 🙁
At Royals Keep, Cory Moen looks at “Royals Prospects Who Could Make Their Debut In August Or September”. He suggests Lucas Braun, Gavin Cross, and Hunter Patteson, adding “Other MLB debuts that are possible include IF Jacob Berry, catchers Luca Tresh and Elih Marrero, and RHP Ben Sears.” Wait? Gavin Cross is already 25?
Unfortunately, no long, crazy OT today. I’m already over 2500 words. Also, I just can’t quite nail down a couple of OTs that I’ve been working on. They’re each just missing something, so they’ll have to wait a couple of weeks. Also, I’m out next week.
But I do have a couple of updates on old OTs. And we’re also doing an (abbreviated) old-school Song of the Day!
* * * * *
Last week, we fell down an internet rabbit hole, trying to figure out the stats for the water rides at Schlitterbahn New Braunfels. At the end, I wrote: “Not perfect, but not bad. I think I’ll try to email Six Flags and see how I did (if they respond).” I did email them last week, and they have yet to respond. Bummer. I’m sure there’s some crazy old guy who knows all this stuff because he was there when it happened. Sadly, the email never made it to his desk.
* * * * *
I’ve done a coupleof OTs about buying tickets for the LA28 Olympics.
If you’re bored of this (I can believe it), just skip ahead to SotD. I’m an awful judge of what people want to read about. I can see how this is as exciting as reading about someone else’s Fantasy Football league or someone’s weekly sports betting wins and losses. However, for me, personally – it’s been a fun mental exercise and a bit of an emotional ride, so I’ve just been letting it out in Rumblings.
When last we left ticketing, the Visa presale had just wrapped up ahead of the Phase 2 drop (Drop 2? I’m not entirely sure what the official terminology is). In Phase 1, there was a locals presale and then no ticket restock ahead of the proper Phase 1. Conventional wisdom was that Phase 2 would be the same with no restock following the Visa presale.
If you remember (you probably don’t and have long since lost interest), I estimated that 30-40% of the tickets were gone in Phase 1 and another smaller (10-20%) disappeared in the Visa Presale. There was also a small drop for former Olympic athletes, but I have to think that’s a very small number of tickets. That said, I think we’re well past half the tickets gone, and the drops are going to get smaller and smaller with what’s available.
I have been on the LA28 mailing list since January 2023 and have yet to be selected for any lottery. C’mon, guys!
In Phase 1, my wife got the last possible spot. Not much was left, and we only picked one set of tickets. This time, she was selected for the first slot at 10am PT on August 10th. If there was a restock, I’d have a chance at some great and/or cheap tickets. If not, we’d probably just wait until next time.
With that in mind, I went back to work on the spreadsheet. We still have nothing for Sunday, Monday, or Wednesday, and there are a couple of other gaps on the schedule. I made large lists of events to consider, but we already had most of our big anchor events. In retrospect, I didn’t narrow things down enough.
On Monday, I took everything I had learned from the last drops and logged in as fast as I could. I still had to wait 20 minutes in the second queue, but I was in faster than most. Then the big moment: they had restocked!
But things were going fast. I checked Opening Ceremony first as that’s the only real “dream” item left. There were tickets, but they started at over $1000. I just can’t do that. After striking out on the baseball finals last time, I checked those. There were sub-$300 tickets and I tried to add them. No luck. Someone else (many someones?) was quicker and sniped them before I did. The next highest category went fast, while I was still deciding how high I was willing to go. At that point, the cheapest ticket was $500+. I had to let that dream die.
My wife was hoping for women’s gymnastics. Since I spent my first precious moments searching for Opening Ceremonies and the baseball finals, any gymnastics finals seats were “long” gone. Maybe there were $1000+ seats, but that’s as good as “gone” in my book. The prelims were into the $400+ range. If I had to do it over again, I would have gone there first and probably could have snagged some for half that or even less, and it would have been our anchor event on Sunday.
Wednesday the 19th is a wild card in our schedule. I had been holding it open for the baseball finals, but that’s looking increasingly unlikely. Maybe we’ll just fly out a day earlier than planned and save some money. Well, there was one “backup” event that my wife was really wanting and I was also excited for. When I saw reasonable tickets available, I quickly added them to my cart. I guess we’re not flying out early. We’re going to end our Olympic experience at the Sepulveda Basin Recreation Area, watching the Women’s Street Skateboard Finals. That’s going to be awesome!
Once tickets are added to your cart, you have 30 minutes to check out. We’ve had the pre-Opening Ceremony Wednesday (12th) and Thursday (13th) planned for a while and have 3 of the 4 tickets already. The last thing I was missing was Wednesday morning Water Polo in Long Beach. There were some of those elusive $28 tickets. Yes, please.
I started looking at some more $28 tickets. However, I noticed I only had about 3 minutes left in my cart. What? I had added tickets less than 5 minutes before. I should still have 25 minutes. Apparently it glitched – maybe it was when I tried to add the baseball tickets. This meant I had to quickly check out or risk losing the skateboarding and cheap water polo tickets. I put in the payment information just in the nick of time.
Here’s what our schedule looks like now (have bolded; parens are TBD):
TUE JUL 11 FLY IN – NO EVENTS
WED JUL 12 Long Beach prelims: AM Water Polo, PM Handball
THU JUL 13 Carson: AM Field Hockey prelim; PM Rugby quarters
FRI JUL 14 AM Rest; (Opening Ceremony/Party)
SAT JUL 15 DTLA: AM Men’s Gymnastics prelim; PM Track medal: w 100, m 10000, w shot put; lots of qualifying PM
WED JUL 19 (AM ???); PM Women’s Street Skateboard Finals
THU JUL 20 FLY OUT
Once I checked out, the system kicked me out, and I had to go back into the queue. That 20 minutes cost me chances at a lot of what I had been considering. There were still a lot of awesome tickets left. But I’m down to just a couple of days’ worth of schedule: Sunday and Monday. However, I was too slow and indecisive and I watched tickets evaporate. If I could go back in time, I know a couple of things I’d jump on, particularly as this is probably the best drop time we’ll get in these ticket sales. But I can’t. Besides, we’ve already had much better luck than I could have hoped for. We’re still under budget and with a lot of events we’re happy with. Even if we don’t add any more tickets before the games begin, I’m more than happy. The efficiency part of my engineering brain is annoyed that I was inefficient. But there’s no way I could possibly be disappointed with what we have.
If you’re curious what the ticket market looked like as each day passed and why lottery slot was really important. Here’s a couple of Reddit threads from Monday night, Tuesday, and Wednesday. You can see how tickets are bought up and sports become unavailable. Or pick a sport with lots of inexpensive tickets to start and how they just become more expensive by the day.
In theory, this is the last ticket Phase of 2026. No one is really sure if there’s going to be one more lottery Phase in 2027. If not, the last large tranche of tickets will probably be part of a first come/first served free-for-all, possibly with dynamic pricing. Also, the resale market opens in 2027.
As I mentioned above, we’re going to do an old school (albeit slightly abbreviated) Song of the Day!
I was never good at skateboarding. I was a tall, lanky, and awkward kid – that is not the body type for skateboarding safely. But today’s SotD game is from a legendary name in the sport and an iconic series in video game history. Today’s featured game is Tony Hawk’s Pro Skater for the PlayStation.
As I get older, I absolutely love the “You look like an old ‘Tony Hawk’” phenomenon that follows the skateboarding legend around. Also, I love the fact that his son married Kurt Cobain’s daughter and a kid who can’t possibly live up to that legacy as the coolest human being to ever walk the earth. Then again: who knows? Maybe he’ll be so awesome as to save the entire planet Wyld Stallyns-style. We could use that.
Much like my forays into real-life skateboarding, I was never great at this series. But I could appreciate the novel approach to gameplay that Neversoft built the franchise on. I also feel like it’s been a little lost to time, though it did get a remake a few years ago.
I know I’m featuring a video from the first game, but the second and third are two of the most critically acclaimed games of all time (quotes from Wiki):
“According to Metacritic, it holds a score of 98/100, making it one of the highest rated video games of all time across all consoles and platforms. Pro Skater 2 along with Soulcalibur, and Grand Theft Auto IV are ranked second behind The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time. ”
“Similarly, the PS2 version of Pro Skater 3 earned a rare perfect 10 score from GameSpot, one of only eleven games to ever receive said score. It was also awarded the best sports game award at E3 2001. IGN rated the game 9.7/10, stating that the game “should go down in history as one of the best twitch-fests on PS2”. The game is currently the top rated PS2 game on the review aggregate website Metacritic, with an average score of 97/100, tying with Grand Theft Auto III.“
Here’s an entire full game playthrough. For those unfamiliar, it’s got that polygonal fifth-generation look that, well, has aged the worst of any generation in the history of video games. But the gameplay underneath was something revolutionary.
Heston Kjerstad hit a game-tying homer in the fifth, but the Tides dropped this one in 11 innings. Enrique Bradfield Jr. was thrown out at the plate in the tenth, and Anthony Nunez allowed the designated runner to score on a two-out single in the top of the 11th.
Norfolk starter Juaron Watts-Brown gave up two earned on seven hits over four innings. Watts-Brown struck out six and did not walk a batter. The bullpen posted six zeros before Nunez let one slip. Yaqui Rivera struck out four over two perfect innings.
Kjerstad began the game on the bench but entered when Reed Trimble exited with an injury. MASN’s Roch Kubatko reported that Trimble left the game with right hamstring discomfort. Trimble doubled in his only at bat. Kjerstad finished 2-for-3 with the long ball and a sacrifice bunt.
Anderson De Los Santos trimmed the lead to two with a two-run shot in the ninth, but Reading held on to secure the win. Chesapeake out hit the Fightin Phils 9-8, but Reading took control by scoring in five consecutive innings.
Baysox starter Patrick Reilly struck out seven in only four innings but also walked four batters. He surrendered three hits and allowed two runs to score.
Wehiwa Aloy finished 2-for-5 with a double, and Thomas Sosa went 2-for-4 with a two-bagger and a walk. Dom Keegan got the Baysox on the board with a solo shot in the fourth, and Aaron Estrada came off the bench to deliver a base hit and a sacrifice fly. Griff O’Ferrall and Brandon Butterworth both reached base twice with singles and walks.
Butterworth is set to be promoted to Triple-A today.
High-A: Frederick Keys 5, Bowling Green Hot Rods (Rays) 4 F/10
Bowling Green scored two in the 10th, but Frederick walked it off with three runs in the bottom half. Randal Diaz tied the game with a two-run double, and Yasmil Bucce worked the count full with the bases loaded before taking a game-winning walk. Bucce finished 2-for-4 with a double.
Vance Honeycutt finished 0-for-3 with a pair of strikeouts. DJ Layton eventually entered for Honeycutt and scored two of Frederick’s five runs.
Evan Yates finished one-out shy of a quality start. Yates allowed two earned runs on four hits and three walks. He struck out five.
Low-A: Delmarva Shorebirds 7, Salem RidgeYaks (Red Sox)
Delmarva took control of this one early with a five-run first. The Shorebirds tacked on two more in the second and coasted to the finish line.
Jaiden Lo Re led the charge with a 3-for-4 day that included a two-run triple. Jhomnardo Reyes added another run-scoring triple in the first, and Miguel Rodríguez drove him in with a two-run homer.
Starter Holden deJong allowed a pair of runs over four innings. Jake Dykhoff earned the win with four innings of bulk relief.
COVERS INTEL: The Red Sox have been swining better on the road, 
