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If you watched the end of Tuesday night’s 2-1 Phillies loss to the Dodgers at Citizens Bank Park, you likely woke up this morning asking the same question you were left with in the aftermath of J.T. Realmuto’s baserunning blunder.

“What on earth was he thinking?”

In case you missed Tuesday night’s gaffe, the Phils were mounting a 9th inning comeback. Justin Crawford was on third base and Realmuto was on second. There was one out in the inning with Brandon Marsh at the plate.

Marsh cued a ball down the third base line which was fielded by Max Muncy. Crawford hesitatingly took off for home, which manager Don Mattingly said was due to Crawford running on contact. However, one should not absolve Crawford of blame because, following the game, he admitted he was told to run on contact if the ball was hit to anywhere except third base. Crawford should have retreated to the bag, leaving runners and second and third with two outs. Once he took off for home, it was inevitable he would be tagged out.

His only choice was to try and stay in a rundown long enough for Realmuto to take his place at third base and for Marsh to try and get to second. That would have given the Phillies 2nd and 3rd with two outs.

Again, not ideal, but still breathing.

Then, with Realmuto standing on third, he suddenly bolts for second base, moving backwards 90 feet. As Crawford was being chased back to third, Realmuto should have just stood his ground and waited for Crawford to occupy the same base as him, rendering Crawford out.

Watching Marsh, it appeared he ran through the bag at first and didn’t make an immediate move to second. In all likelihood, the Phils were looking at first and third with two out.

That is, until Realmuto was tagged out at second.

After the game, the Phils’ veteran catcher admitted he goofed (quotes via MLB.com).

“Just a bad baserunning play, really,” Realmuto said. “We were going on seeing it through there, and once Craw gets in the rundown and I’m on third base, there’s no reason for me to go back to second. Just a lack of judgment. You can’t make two outs on that play. I’ve just to stay in scoring position.

“Just a lapse in judgment. I thought Crawford could get out of the rundown for some reason. The chances of that are so small, you just can’t take that chance there of making two outs on one play.”

In Realmuto’s mind, he thought Crawford could wriggle himself out of his pickle and that, by running back to second, he was giving the rookie outfielder a chance to do that.

This is J.T.’s 13th year in the Majors. He has played in 1,446 Major League Baseball games and hundreds of other games through little league, high school and the minors. He has likely never, in his entire baseball career, seen a player get out of a rundown situation like the one Crawford was in, let alone in the Majors.

And yet, he ran.

Without making excuses for Realmuto, what happened to him has happened to all of us in various scenarios during our lives.

Sometimes, our brains just break.

Most of the time, it’s only for a moment or two. We do something so dumb, so stupid, so against our character, that it’s impossible to explain why we did it after the fact. Our logic, sped up in the moment to a level that triggers a kind of temporary insanity, compels us to do something we know to be dumb, harmful or chaotic.

If you were to put Realmuto in that same spot another 100 times, he likely remains cemented to the third base bag every single time.

And according to the advanced metrics, the Phillies’ baserunning has improved this year. Fangraphs has the Phils with the 4th-most baserunning runs above average this season.

Tuesday night’s blunder calls back to last year’s 9th inning meltdown against the Dodgers in Game 2 of the NLDS where, after Nick Castellanos two-run double drew the Phils to within 4-3, putting a runner on second with nobody out.

The decision for Stott to bunt and get Castellanos tagged out at third for the first out of the inning sabotaged a late Phils’ rally in Game 2.

Tuesday night’s ridiculousness did not have the same stakes, but it did harken back to last October’s brain fart. In this case, Realmuto’s brain simply ran away from him, and a potential Phillies victory along with it.

One the Dodgers were only too happy to accept.

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With 17 games packed into Wednesday’s marathon MLB schedule—thanks to a pair of traditional doubleheaders in the Bronx and Boston—bettors are treated to an all-day smorgasbord of moneyline value.

From early-afternoon matinees to high-stakes evening doubleheaders, today's massive card presents no shortage of prime spots to target straight-up winners.

Here are my MLB moneyline predictions as wedive into the full slate with my MLB picks on Wednesday, July 22.

MLB moneyline picks for July 22

Matchup	Pick
Pirates vs Yankees	-160
Mets vs Brewers	-135
Giants vs Royals	-111
Nationals vs Rockies	-127
Athletics vs Diamondbacks	+106
Reds vs Mariners	+141
Cardinals vs Angels	+108
Dodgers vs Phillies	-111
Twins vs Guardians	-117
Pirates vs Yankees	-153
Rays vs Blue Jays	+102
Orioles vs Red Sox	-130
Padres vs Braves	+108
White Sox vs Rangers	-102
Tigers vs Cubs	+108
Marlins vs Astros	-108

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of July 22.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for July 22

Pirates vs Yankees: Yankees (-160)

Yankees win probability: 62%

Despite Gerrit Cole allowing plenty of hard contact over his last few outings, he is still maintaining a 1.04 WHIP and 3.22 xERA. Meanwhile, Pirates right hander Mitch Keller has posted a 5.45 xERA and 1.41 WHIP over his last five starts, while allowing a 50% hard hit rate and a 10.47% barrel rate.

The Yankees offense is slowly coming back to life, generating nearly a 50% hard hit rate and an 8.7% barrel rate over its last six games.

I lean with the Yankees here.

Mets vs Brewers: Brewers (-135)

Brewers win probability: 57%

Over the last week, the Mets' offense has posted an 81 wRC+, .283 wOBA, and .621 OPS, while the Brewers have generated a 109 wRC+, .329 wOBA, and .732 OPS.

With how strong the pitching matchup is this afternoon, I think backing the hotter offense is the right move.

Giants vs Royals: Giants (-111)

Giants win probability: 52%

With Royals right hander Seth Lugo posting a 6.75 ERA, 5.48 xERA, and 1.62 WHIP over his last five starts, I am leaning heavily toward the Giants here. Sure, their offense has been a tad cold over the last week, but bad pitching has a way of getting an offense back on track.

Nationals vs Rockies: Nationals (-127)

Nationals win probability: 56%

Would you rather back the offense with a 147 wRC+, .380 wOBA, and .873 OPS over its last six games, or the one with a 73 wRC+, .291 wOBA, and .658 OPS?

Yeah, same.

Nationals.

Athletics vs Diamondbacks: Athletics (+106)

Athletics win probability: 48%

Death. Taxes. Fade Merrill Kelly.

Arizona's right hander has been brutal all season, and his expected numbers suggest he should be even worse. Over his last five starts, he owns a 6.36 xERA and a 1.45 WHIP, while allowing a 48% hard hit rate and a 12% barrel rate.

The Athletics offense has been turning it around, posting a 126 wRC+, .351 wOBA, and .794 OPS over the last week.

Reds vs Mariners: Reds (+141)

Reds win probability: 42%

Similar to most of my reads, I am not backing a frozen offense. Seattle has posted a wRC+ under 100 for more than a month, while the Reds own a 119 wRC+, .347 wOBA, and .224 ISO over their last 12 games.

I want the team that is playing its best baseball and at +141 is a great price to back the hotter team.

Reds.

Cardinals vs Angels: Cardinals (+108)

Cardinals win probability: 48%

Take the underdog for the value here. Both offenses are frozen, and both starting pitchers have been brutal.

I am not paying juice in this spot.

Give me the Cardinals.

Dodgers vs Phillies: Dodgers (-111)

Dodgers win probability: 52%

You think I am going to back Aaron Nola? Please.

Eric Lauer has been solid for the Dodgers over his last five outings, and with how bad Nola has been this season, I think the Los Angeles offense can get after him early and often.

Twins vs Guardians: Guardians (-117)

Guardians win probability: 54%

Neither Bailey Ober nor Slade Cecconi has been at his best over the last few starts, but Ober has been especially rough, posting a 6.00 ERA, 5.12 xERA, and 1.60 WHIP over his last five outings.

Meanwhile, the Guardians offense has finally awakened, posting a 148 wRC+, .381 wOBA, and .204 ISO over its last six games.

I like the Guardians here.

Pirates vs Yankees: Yankees (-153)

Yankees win probability: 60%

"But I always look to fade the winner of Game 1 of a doubleheader."

Cool. Anyway...

The Pirates turn to Bubba Chandler in Game 2. The right hander owns a 6.60 ERA and 1.80 WHIP, and he has been allowing a ton of hard hit balls over his last three starts.

With the Yankees finally starting to find their stride, getting back to back matchups against pitchers who give up plenty of hard contact should play right into their hands.

Rays vs Blue Jays: Rays (+102)

Rays win probability: 50%

We are getting the Rays as underdogs against the most lifeless team in baseball? Yes, please!

For those unaware, the Blue Jays own a 68 wRC+, .267 wOBA, and .595 OPS over their last 21 games.

This is not the 2025 team. This team has no life.

Orioles vs Red Sox: Red Sox (-130)

Red Sox win probability: 56%

If it is Ranger Suárez, I want to back the Red Sox.

The Orioles have struggled a ton against left handed pitchers, and I think Suárez can make a dominant return against this offense.

Plus, who does not want to see this winning streak continue?

Padres vs Braves: Padres (+108)

Padres win probability: 48%

The Padres are heating up, and Martin Perez has posted a 7.43 ERA and 1.80 WHIP over his last three starts.

Meanwhile, Michael King has been holding it down over his last five starts.

Give me the Padres to feast this evening.

White Sox vs Rangers: White Sox (-102)

White Sox win probability: 50%

Bounce back central, USA.

The White Sox will get their get right win and secure the series against Cal Quantrill this evening. The Rangers starter owns a 5.40 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, and a sub 9% strikeout rate over his last three starts.

On the other end, Anthony Kay has been turning things around, and I expect him to hold down the fort for the White Sox offense.

Tigers vs Cubs: Tigers (+108)

Tigers win probability: 48%

Yes, give me the Tigers as an underdog against Colin Rea, who owns a 4.41 ERA, 4.87 xERA, and 1.47 WHIP over his last three starts.

With the Cubs scoring 11 runs last night, I expect some regression from their offense.

Give me the Tigers as an underdog.

Marlins vs Astros: Astros (-108)

Astros win probability: 52%

With the Marlins' ice cold offense and the Astros heating up, I have to take the hometown favorite here.

Plus, Peter Lambert has been nails over his last five starts, posting a 2.54 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.

I expect the Astros to get the job done this evening.

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The injuries have piled up for the Royals this year, and now they’ve affected their best player.

Bobby Witt Jr. was placed on the Injured List for the first time in his career on Wednesday, after missing the last two games with lower back tightness. The Royals selected infielder Andrew Velazquez from Triple-A Omaha and placed pitcher Stephen Kolek on the 60-day Injured List to make room on the 40-man roster.

Witt was playing like an MVP candidate for most of the year, hitting .279/.350/.450 with 13 home runs and a league-high 30 steals. He led the American League with 4.9 rWAR, and lead all defensive players in Outs Above Average at +19. Recently, he made his first-ever start in the All-Star Game, drawing a walk and scoring a run. Witt has played in at last 150 games in each of his first four seasons, and missed just five games last year. He missed six games earlier this year with a knee injury, but avoided the Injured List.

The Royals signed Velazquez to a minor league contract last month. The 32-year-old has played in parts of six MLB seasons with the Rays, Guardians, Orioles, Yankees, and Angels, hitting .189/.244/.293 in 275 games. He last played in the big leagues in 2023, appearing in 54 games with the Angels. He began this year in the Diamondbacks organization, and was hitting .259/.328/.315 in 18 games with Omaha. Velazquez is a switch-hitter who has played who has played ever position except first and catcher.

Kolek was on a rehab stint with Omaha to ramp him back up after he missed time on a family emergency, but suffered forearm tightness in his start at Triple-A on July 18. The Royals will get a second opinion on his injury, as forearm tightness is commonly associated with elbow injuries that require Tommy John surgery.

This past weekend was the celebration of the 2016 championship Cubs on their 10-year reunion. The various gatherings and events brought back a lot of nostalgia. Tuesday night’s Cub win also brought back some of that nostalgia. This was the blueprint of so much of that season. Jump all over the other team early and cruise to victory. Once Cub starter David Peterson was lifted from the game, there were just two more plays that registered any WPA. Aaron Civale allowed a single to the first batter he faced (-.001) and retired the second (.001). Each team had two turns at the plate, but neither dented WPA after that. 31 of the 86 plays in this game registered .000.

Perspective check: Four teams have more wins than the Cubs. The Cubs have solo possession of the first Wild Card position in the NL. The Cubs are on pace to win 91.4 games. They continue to have that tight projection in the 90-92 range. Overall, I think that range is probably something like 88-94, allowing for swings in either direction. As I keep saying, starting Friday, there is a significant test coming. The team has played well for over a month now. Hopefully, there is something they can take from that and bring forth into this stretch.

Ironically, the Cubs won this one the way they lost the one before. Granted, it was a much longer duration. But the Cubs weren’t particularly crushing Framber Valdez. But, they were patient, took what was given to them, got a couple of good breaks and poured it on, knocking Valdez out with more than 40 pitches thrown and only two outs recorded. That was the first time Valdez failed to survive the first inning since July 11, 2019 when he allowed four runs on four hits and three walks. This was only his second-ever start, in 185 total starts, where he didn’t throw at least three innings.

When it gets this lopsided this quickly, you end up with silly baseball. The Cubs faced two innings of position player pitching that accounted for three hits, four walks and two runs. So in the six innings against guys who get paid to pitch, the team had eight hits, seven walks, two hit batters and nine runs. Nine different Cubs had hits, six different Cubs drew walks, nine different Cubs scored runs, seven different Cubs had RBI’s. So it was a really balanced attack for the Cubs.

Leading the way was Pete Crow-Armstrong who started the game with a triple, walked later in the inning and ended up with two hits and three walks. That’s one very odd full house. He drove in two and scored a run. The Cubs only had one double, one triple and one homer. They stole one base. So this attack was death by a thousand paper cuts for the Tigers.

David Peterson threw a couple of pitches were crushed, but I do at least want to nod to pitching to the conditions with a huge lead and the wind howling in. On paper, Peterson’s results were terrific. He allowed three hits and a walk over 6.2 innings. He was so effective that the Cubs had a second straight day of coming up short on an odd stat. On Monday, the Cubs fell short of a potential 11th walk-off. On Tuesday, Aaron Civale was two outs short of becoming the 11th Cub to record a save. The three-inning save has been one of the more available vectors for the pitching staff to record saves.

This was definitely one of those wins that you hope you can carry some of that offense forward to Wednesday. It would be really nice to notch another series win before that 17-game gauntlet starts. There are definitely going to be some series losses in there. So you just want to bank as much as you can. With any luck, the team will see reinforcements from multiple directions during that gauntlet. They should have some of their own guys getting healthy and they should also trade for some live arms from other teams.

Keep marching on.

Three Positives and Pete:

• David Peterson gets the top spot with 6.2 scoreless innings.
• Dansby Swanson had two singles, drew a walk and scored three runs.
• Ian Happ had a single, drew a walk and was hit by a pitch. He drove in a run and scored another.
• Pete’s appearance here is more than obligatory. He was the star offensively, reaching base five times. Forget any mention of the word slump. As great a season as he is having, Pete added four points to his batting average, seven to his on base, and eight to his slugging percentage. The net result was four points on his wRC+. Always unbelievable.

Game 101, July 21: Cubs 11, Tigers 2 (57-44)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.146). 2-2, 3B, 3 BB, 2 RBI, R
• Hero: Carson Kelly (.121). 1-3, 2 BB, 2 RBI, R
• Sidekick: David Peterson (.110). 6.2 IP, 24 BF, 3 H, BB, 0 R, 4 K (W 2-1)

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Kevin Alcantara (-.035). 0-2
• Goat: Dansby Swanson (-.013). 2-3, BB, 3 R, SB
• Kid: Justin Dean (.000). 0-1

WPA Note: Dean, Pedro Ramirez and Aaron Civale all registered .000 WPA. Of the three, Dean’s was the most “negative” outcome of the three. While Civale allowed two runs, his job was clearly to eat outs and he did that. Obviously, Dean’s job was largely to give PCA a few innings off. But in these spots, I will make a choice for the last spot.

WPA Play of the Game: Carson Kelly’s two-run single in the first, driving in the first two runs. (.116)

Tigers Play of the Game: Framber Valdez’ strike out of Kevin Alcantara for the second out in the first inning. (.028)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 100 Winner: Ian Happ 38 of 55 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Pete Crow-Armstrong +21
• Carson Kelly +17.5
• Michael Busch +16
• Ben Brown/Alex Bregman +13.5
• Jameson Taillon/Phil Maton -10
• Nico Hoerner -11
• Caleb Thielbar -14
• Dansby Swanson -16

Up Next: The third and final game of the series between the Tigers and Cubs. Colin Rea (7-6, 4.74) starts for the Cubs. Rea is just 2-3 with a 5.00 over his last seven appearances (36 IP). He does have two wins and a quality start over his last three starts. The Tigers start Keider Montero (6-5, 3.22). The 26-year-old Venezuelan hasn’t started a game since June 26. In five July appearances, he is 2-0 with a 2.08 (13 IP). His high pitch count in there is 58. He only threw 43 in his last one. That may help explain the Tigers going to position players for the final two innings. Montero feels unlikely to get deep in this one. Even when he was starting, he topped out at 96 pitches. Last June, the Cubs scored four runs in 5.2 against him. The four runs were four solo homers (Suzuki, Busch, Crow-Armstrong and Shaw).

Unlikely to be easy but go win a series.

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It might have taken until the 25th hour last night, but Jacob Wilson delivered my longest home run prop of the year at +1140, and let's hope it's the start of a home-run heater. Let's cash some MLB player props.

Fading Dean Kremer has to be on the card, and Masataka Yoshida is the left-handed bat I want, while Aaron Nola has been serving up long balls all year and nobody has seen him more than Freddie Freeman. 

Finally, how can we leave Jacob Wilson off the card after last night, and at a better price, today? Spoiler: We can't.

These are my favorite home run predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, July 22. 

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Masataka Yoshida	+1000
Freddie Freeman	+406
Jacob Wilson	+1180
💲Today's HR parlay	+48476

Home run pick: Masataka Yoshida (+1000)

After backing Jacob Wilson at +1140, I'm like a vampire with a thirst for 10/1 home runs or better, and Dean Kremer at Fenway with the wind blowing out is my next target. I'm playing this down to +750 in the first game of a doubleheader, where Kremer could be asked to eat innings.

Kremer currently owns the worst HR/FB rate among qualified MLB starters and the third-worst HR/9. He's already surrendered nine home runs in just 26 innings, with left-handed hitters doing most of the damage.

Masataka Yoshida is one of only two Red Sox with an OPS north of 1.000 over the last 30 days and ranks near the top of the club in most offensive categories. He isn't known as a prolific home run hitter, but he's in the middle of a nice power surge with two homers and a .351 average over his last 10 games.

The matchup and the setting are there today to take a shot at a massive price. There is only one lefty arm in the Orioles pen today, as well. 

• Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NESN, MASN

Home run pick: Freddie Freeman (+406)

Citizens Bank Park still ranks as the No. 2 home run park on today's slate, according to Ballpark Pal, despite a slight wind blowing in.

That's great news for the Dodgers' bats against Aaron Nola, who has been one of the more home run-prone pitchers in baseball this season. He served up three homers in his last start on the 16th and has allowed multiple home runs in five of his last seven outings. It's a dinger upgrade across the Dodgers' lineup, and Nola doesn't discriminate, giving them up to both lefties and righties.

Only Tommy Edman owns a better OPS than Freddie Freeman over the last 30 days in the Dodgers' clubhouse, and Freeman has plenty of history against Nola with 76 career at-bats. Nola has gotten the better of him over the years with a .237 average and just two home runs allowed, but this version of the Phillies' right-hander is the most vulnerable Freeman has ever faced.

Almost the entire Dodgers lineup projects as +EV to go deep today, but Freeman at +370 or better is where I'm landing. It also helps that the Phillies have just one available lefty in the bullpen.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBC Sports Philadelphia, SportsNet LA

Home run pick: Jacob Wilson (+1180)

How about some damn respect for Jacob Wilson, who has gone deep three times over his last four games and cashed a monster ticket last night at +1140. The Athletics' leadoff man has seen at least five plate appearances in each game during this heater and is riding a nine-game hitting streak, batting .421 with a .721 slugging percentage and six multi-hit performances.

The matchup is in his favor again today against Merrill Kelly, who has been one of the hardest-hit pitchers in baseball this season. Kelly owns the worst BlastContact% of any starter on today's slate and ranks among the bottom 50 in both HR/FB and HR/9. He has also been far more vulnerable at home, posting a 6.69 ERA compared to a 4.28 mark on the road. Since the start of 2024, his HR/9 is also 0.4 higher at home.

I'm riding the Wilson train until this price drops. I'd play this dinger down to +800 today.

• Time: 3:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBC Sports California, Diamondbacks.TV

Today’s HR parlay

Masataka Yoshida	Bet Now +48476
Freddie Freeman
Jacob Wilson

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This game is priced as a coin flip, with Chicago and Texas both carrying -110 odds on the moneyline.

Anthony Kay is not pitching as well as his results indicate, and the lefty-mashing Rangers should take full advantage of that.

Let's break it all down with my White Sox vs. Rangers predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, July 22.

Who will win White Sox vs Rangers today: Texas Rangers moneyline (-110)

Anthony Kay’s 3.15 ERA has masked the fact he owns a 4.85 xFIP over the last 30 days.

The southpaw is playing with fire, and there’s real potential he gets burned against the Texas Rangers. 

They have hammered left-handed pitching unlike any other team, ranking first in average, OPS, and wOBA since June 1. 

The Chicago White Sox sit 21st in wOBA vs. right-handed pitching this month. They’re in a bit of a rut, which should help Cal Quantrill avoid a blow up.

Back the Rangers to take the rubber match up to -125.

COVERS INTEL:Kay ranks in the 12th percentile with a 5.35 xERA this season.

White Sox vs Rangers Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-120)

Kay has posted an xERA of 5.05 or worse in three of his last four starts. He’s allowing a lot of quality contact and it’ll be tough to get the cat back in the bag against an offense feasting on lefties.

While the White Sox haven’t lit it up of late, this is a good spot to get on track. They’ll see a lot of Quantrill, who ranks in the 21st percentile in barrel rate and has allowed 2.14 homers per nine innings the last month. That should play well for their power.

Bet to -130.

White Sox vs Rangers weather

This game will be played in a dome.

White Sox vs Rangers odds

• Moneyline: Chicago -110 | Texas -110
• Run line: Chicago -1.5 (+150) | Texas +1.5 (-175)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100)

White Sox vs Rangers trend

Texas has hit the Game Total Over in 18 of the last 24 home games (+11.35 units, 42% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Rangers.

How to watch White Sox vs Rangers and game info

White Sox vs Rangers latest injuries

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