Happy Monday, everyone! The past few days have stoked the flames on the offseason hot stove into a fever pitch (no pun intended, I promise). With the Mets losing out on signing Kyle Tucker, and the Dodgers once again proving they’ll spend whatever it takes to become the next MLB dynasty, we’re seeing a lot of high-priced short-term deals making the rounds. The Mets pivoted, signing Bo Bichette, and it’s making folks wonder what this means for free agency deals and if we’re seeing the new normal in terms of shying away from the longer-term deals.
It remains to be seen, but there’s plenty more juicy tidbits in today’s news breakdown, so let’s just jump right into it.
We have signed the following international amateur free agents:
C Manuel Bolivar (Venezuela, pictured below) C Roman Silgado (Venezuela) IF Eduardo Tusen (Dominican Republic) SS Oscar Tineo (Venezuela) CF Douglas Olivo (Venezuela) OF Diego Orro (Venezuela) CF Randy Santana… pic.twitter.com/p9C8fqucZN
An interesting look at the financial side of running a baseball team.
The Atlanta Braves financial statements are publicly available and serve as a general guide for understanding the business of baseball. Any good accountant can move some decimals here and there, but these are a good starting ground.
With the luxury tax, the Dodgers will be paying $126 million a season for Tucker (assuming no deferrals). That's more than 11 teams' entire payrolls. This is absurd.https://t.co/uwe3cLpqXw
Inevitably with a series such as this one, you’ll find one or two less notorious names to properly fill a list. So in searching for a former Yankee born on January 19th, we ended up with Fernando Seguignol as the chosen player. If you remember his short period with the Yankees, cheers to you for a great memory considering he had all of one major-league hit in his entire semi-interrupted career in pinstripes. That’s still one more than 99.99 percent of us, though.
Fernando Alfredo Seguignol Born: January 19, 1975 (Bocas del Toro, Panama) Yankees Tenure: 2003 (also in minors 1993-94)
Three years after the Yankees signed the most famous Panamanian in baseball history, they came to terms with his countryman, Fernando Seguignol. At the time the 18-year-old inked his contract with New York in January 1993, only 37 MLB players had ever hailed from Panama; since then, that figure has expanded to 81, including current Yankees utilityman José Caballero. Seguignol’s father, a longtime Yankees fa, and was absolutely thrilled that his son might one day play for the Bronx Bombers.
Seguignol struggled heavily in his first taste of Rookie ball in ’93, but after putting up a reasonable .767 OPS in short-season ball for Oneonta the following campaign, he raised his stock. It was enough to invoke the interest of the desperate Montreal Expos, and Seguignol was used by the Yankees just before the start of the 1995 campaign to acquire standout closer John Wetteland in a one-for-one deal with cash considerations involved.
Make no mistake: For the Expos, this was not about getting fair prospect value. The consortium of Montreal executives that owned the club informed GM Kevin Malone that he essentially had to sell off some of the best players from the outstanding 1994 club that was MLB’s best when the strike hit. It ended on April 2, 1995, and as MLB hastily organized a short spring training and a reduced 144-game schedule, the Expos executed a fire sale. Wetteland was dealt to the Yankees, Ken Hill went to Cleveland, Marquis Grissom was sent out to Atlanta, and though not traded, the Expos simply refused to offer Larry Walker a contract in arbitration; he signed with the Rockies. Credit Yankees GM Gene Michael for taking advantage of the opportunity, but those were some strange circumstances.
The Yankees had no problem trading a low-minors name for Wetteland, and while he felt hurt at the time, it honestly worked out well for Seguignol too, as he had less of an uphill climb to playing time in Montreal. Standing at six-foot-five, Seguignol had the traditional build of a power-hitting first baseman, but through the early years of his development process as an outfielder in the Expos farm system, he failed to live up to those expectations. It wasn’t until 1998 that Seguignol found his footing in Double-A Harrisburg, slugging over .600 and prompting a rapid rise through the ranks, reaching Triple-A and subsequently the majors for a rather small but quite successful first cup of tea.
Called up in September as part of an Expos team that was going nowhere and wanted to get a look at what they had in young bat, Seguignol earned his first hit as a pinch-hitter on September 10th. A day later, the 23-year-old experienced what had to be one of his most thrilling moments in the bigs, going back-to-back with future Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero, easily the star of that 65-97 club.
It’s relatively telling of both the expectations the Expos had regarding Seguignol and, primarily, the lack of talent around Vlad Sr. that Montreal had their inexperienced first baseman batting fifth, right behind Guerrero, the team’s top hitter.
Despite good numbers in a short sample in 1998, Seguignol started the next year in the minors again, with Brad Fulmer as the Expos’ starting first baseman. Looking back at it, it’s difficult to justify why opportunities were so limited for Seguignol between 1999 and 2000, with him spending more time in the minors than majors, despite a decent .828 OPS in 294 PA between these two seasons and two of his 17 career homers against a prestigious name in Tom Glavine. If you want to be a bit harsher, that OPS isn’t nearly as good as it looks, considering the era (105 OPS+), and with many of those PA coming in left field instead of first base, his original position, the defensive value was virtually nonexistent. The strikeout issues were a problem, which didn’t come as much of a surprise, but the lack of pitch selection, which made for well-below-league-average walk rates, further diminished Seguignol’s floor as a big-league hitter.
Too good for Triple-A but unable to lock down a role in the big leagues, Seguignol was in that dreaded Quad-A state, and at the end of 2001, after receiving only 54 PA in the big leagues, he decided to give Japan a try. Seguignol’s strikeout woes made the trip with him however, and the power output wasn’t enough for the Orix BlueWave to justify giving him a full-time role.
Going back to where it first started, Seguignol signed with the Yankees after a short stint in Japan. Although his time with the big league club was short-lived and not particularly memorable, Seguignol’s campaign with the Yankees’ Triple-A team in Columbus was a great one.
As a 28-year-old, the Panamanian had an OPS above 1.000 and nearly won the Triple-A Triple Crown that year by hitting .341/.401/.624 with 28 homers in 106 games. Called up in September, Seguignol went 1-for-7 in the majors with no extra-base hits; his lone career big-league knock in pinstripes came in a post-clinch start on a ground-ball single against the Orioles’ Rodrigo Lopez.
Carrying over the success he had with the Yankees in Triple-A back in 2003, Seguignol returned to Japan, this time signing with the Nippon Ham Fighters. There, he immediately became one of the more dangerous bats in the NPB, hitting 44 home runs in his first season back in Japan — a new record for a switch-hitter. Although he could never quite replicate those numbers, Seguignol remained an important player for the Ham Fighters during four full seasons. Afterwards, he bounced around in Mexico, the minors, signing deals with the Rockies and Tigers without returning to the bigs, and also in the NPB again.
Returning from Japan in 2010 with the Indy ball Newark Bears, Seguignol would play his final season in 2011, featuring as one of the premier names for another Atlantic League club, the Lancaster Barnstormers. That wrapped up a near-20-year professional career. A switch-hitter who learned that trait when he was already in the minors, Seguignol couldn’t build the MLB résumé that he might’ve envisioned in the bigs. However, in Japan, he made history as one of the more fearsome switch-hitters in the history of the NPB, recording 172 homers in 767 games.
Following his playing career, Seguignol stayed involved in the baseball world. He worked for the Yomiuri Giants and the Cubs before landing a job with the Marlins as director of international operations. Hired by old teammate Derek Jeter in 2017 when the former Yankees captain got involved in Miami, Seguignol held the position until being let go in 2021. Wherever he is now, here’s hoping he has a nice 51st birthday ahead of him.
See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.
To state the obvious: the mood in the Phillies fandom has not been overly sanguine in the past few days. The Phillies missed a chance to get better with Bo Bichette, while their rivals in Queens did not. There are still plenty of reasons to believe in the Phillies as a major contender for next year, despite that. The power is still there in the lineup. The rotation has healthy stars in Christopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo, with Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola as major weapons should they recover and return to form, respectively. The bullpen may be better than last year.
But the division won’t be easy. The Mets have major questions, especially in the rotation, but Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, and Bo Bichette make for a powerful combo. The Braves haven’t quite looked like themselves for the past season or two, but they’re still a major threat. The Nationals and Marlins still seem to be a few seasons away, but they have good young talent. Does all this leave the Phillies as the favorites to win the division? Or does a disappointing offseason and an extra year of age on the lineup move someone else into the drivers seat?
Today’s question is: Do you think the Phillies are still favorites to win the National League East?
[MLB] From World Series winner to sausage meister: A visit to Byung-hyun Kim’s German restaurant – “When I was playing in the States, any time families and friends would come, I would take them out to a restaurant that I recommended. I saw the joy that people felt from having good food,” Kim said. “That’s where it all started.” He began with three sushi restaurants in San Diego – today there is only one, Umi Sushi – before he followed his teenage dream and opened a handful of burger and hot dog joints, with two of the locations inside KBO stadiums at the Gocheok Sky Dome and Changwon NC Park. “The inspiration was Gonzo’s Grill in Arizona at Chase Field,” Kim said. “I saw that and I really wanted to replicate it and have a burger joint at a baseball stadium.”
[AZ Big Media] Merrill Kelly returns to the Diamondbacks for his family – His family’s thrilled to be back in the Valley. Korean cuisine has become an occasional stop, indulged in “probably a little more than we should,” Kelly joked. “We don’t venture out much unless we have to,” he said at first. “I’m a big golfer. If I do go somewhere, at least on my own, it’s usually the golf course. “We found a couple spots that we really like. There’s a place in Mesa, Jin BBQ, [near Mekong Plaza] that we like. There’s an H Mart, which is a big Korean grocery store. It’s good to be back.”
[Dbacks.com] Marte plan unchanged in face of Bregman, Suárez signings – If you’re holding your breath on them bringing in a bona fide closer at this point, well … don’t. “Would I like to have somebody that has a clear pedigree of pitching in the eighth and ninth inning?” Hazen said. “That’s an easier answer. I’m not sure what we’ll have access to in that way. I think if we continue to build out talent in the bullpen, this bullpen is going to be good in time as we move through the season. We’re going to obviously be getting guys back as we move through the season, so I think the talent is naturally going to improve as we move through the year.”
[New Baseball Media] 2025 MLB Farm Review: Arizona Diamondbacks – There is a new #1 atop the Diamondbacks’ farm system. It’s close between Waldschmidt and Caldwell, two different outfielders. Both are fantastic at getting on base and swiping bases, Caldwell more than the former. However, Waldschmidt is a formidable power hitter, moreso than Caldwell. After that, we’ll go with Cunningham at #3. Kohl Drake, acquired last summer as part of the Merrill Kelly, was a strong swing-and-miss pitcher in the Rangers’ organization. has a diverse & modern pitch arsenal, regularly using both a four-seamer and two-seamer.
And, elsewhere…
[Just Baseball] Top 20 MLB Free Agents With Contract and Team Predictions – Zac Gallen – Two-year, $54 million deal, opt-out after 2026, Orioles, we now have Gallen signing with a team that has been very aggressive this offseason. My initial contract prediction has aged well, as the market has stalled on Gallen and he could be forced to take a two-year deal with an opt-out. Paul Goldschmidt – One-year, $5 million, D-backs. Goldschmidt is looking like a great fit in Arizona. With the left-handed hitting Pavin Smith set to start at first base, Goldy could form a platoon there, or could even push Smith to DH some if they wanted him to play every day. If this is the last season of Goldschmidt’s career, there would not be a better place for him.
[MLB Trade Rumors] Elly De La Cruz Declined Franchise-Record Offer From Reds – While details were sparse at the time, president of baseball operations Nick Krall revealed today the team made an official offer that would have topped their 10-year, $225MM franchise-record deal with Joey Votto. “We made Elly an offer that would’ve made him the highest-paid Red ever,” Krall said (link via C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic). “That’s not where he is and you respect that. It’s their career. You keep going and you keep working on what you can do today.” De La Cruz opted not to go into specifics, telling fans at Redsfest only that he leaves contractual matters to his agent, Scott Boras.
[NY Post] Jazz Chisholm Jr. joining Great Britain for 2026 World Baseball Classic – Jazz Chisholm Jr. has committed to suit up for Great Britain, as WBC reporter Shawn Spradling reported Friday, giving the Yankees [and former D-back!] second baseman a chance to play on the big stage this spring. Great Britain delegation head Gary Anderson and manager Brady Marcelino said last month at the Winter Meetings that there was strong interest in having Chisholm — who is entering his walk year — on the team; it was just a matter of working through eligibility and insurance, which has evidently been approved. The Bahamas native played for Great Britain in the WBC qualifiers as an 18-year-old in 2016.
The Rip (2026)
Dir: Joe Carnahan Star: Matt Damon, Ben Affleck, Stephen Yuen, Scott Adkins
a.k.a. Cops Yelling: The Movie. Or perhaps it just seems that way, because nobody here seems to use their inside voice. However, it’s still decently entertaining, in a “Saturday night and I just want something mindless” way… It’s nice to see Damon and Affleck working together again: they’re the Peter Cushing and Christopher Lee of contemporary urban thrillers. Carnahan, too, has certainly come a long way since Blood Guts Bullets & Octane. Probably inevitably, the Netflix sausage machine has knocked off the rough edges of personality, in favor of smooth, slick and ultimately forgettable product. Though, as ever, the “based on real events” tag is more marketing than reality.
There are many reasons for the Orioles failure in 2025. Injuries piled up. The rotation was too thin. And a little bad luck certainly contributed. But perhaps the most disappointing part of the entire squad was the offense, a largely homegrown unit that was supposed to be the backbone of the team’s championship window. Instead, it collapsed.
Orioles President of Baseball Operations Mike Elias did quite a bit of work to improve the lineup this offseason. Most notably, he signed first baseman Pete Alonso to a five-year, $155 million contract with the expectation that he will hit 35+home runs in the middle of the order for years to come. Prior to that, he traded for Taylor Ward, a pending free agent that has hit 61 home runs over the last two seasons.
In short order, Elias injected power back into an Orioles lineup that sorely needed it. They had dropped from third in MLB in slugging (.435) in 2024 down to 19th (.394) in 2025. Some of that was due to the loss of Anthony Santander to free agency, and the rest was caused by underperformance from just about everyone else that stuck around. Bringing in external talent will help to a point, but the ceiling of this team will depend on what the players that were already in-house can do to bounce back. Two players, in particular, stand out.
Hip hip Holliday
The rare Oriole that actually improved in 2025 was Jackson Holliday. The former top prospect had a rough go in his rookie season of 2024, getting an early-season call-up, only to struggle mightily, go back to Triple-A Norfolk, and then return with some inconsistent performances through season’s end. He ended that year with a paltry .189/.255/.311 slash line.
In 2025, the Orioles cleared the deck for Holliday so that he could be their clear everyday second baseman. The results were…better. Over 149 games, he hit .242/.314/.375 with 17 home runs and a 95 OPS+. All in, that is a slightly below league-average hitter, but that OPS+ was a 32-point improvement from his rookie campaign. There was plenty to be encouraged by. He showed solid control of the strike zone, never looked out of his depth the way he often did in ‘24, and stayed at the big league level all season long.
There is no indication that the Orioles are wavering on Holliday’s potential. With spring training around the corner, he remains the only everyday option at second base on the roster. And while the team has continued to pursue high-end pitching through the winter, Holliday’s name has not been mentioned in any public trade rumors. He is poised to play a ton of baseball in Baltimore once again in 2026.
It has become commonplace for this era of Orioles prospects to scuffle right at the start of their big league careers, only to figure things out a bit more in years two and three. Holliday is in a good position to have the same experience.
Westburg, straight ahead
Elsewhere on the infield is a player that has had no such issue with big league pitching. In fact, he’s already made an all-star team and owns a career 116 OPS+. He’s not bad with the leather either. A Gold Glove isn’t out of the question before his career ends. That is, if he could only stay healthy.
Jordan Westburg missed time on three different occasions in 2025. He was out from late April through early June with a hamstring strain, lost a few games in June and July with a finger injury, and then sprained his ankle in mid-August, keeping him on the shelf until mid-September. All of those injuries limited him to just 85 total games.
Despite that, Westburg tied for the team lead in home runs (17) hit last year, alongside Holliday and Gunnar Henderson, who each played in 149 or more games. It doesn’t feel like a coincidence that the team’s worst month of the year (May), was the one that Westburg missed completely.
It’s unlikely that Westburg was ever truly healthy in 2025. Even still, he was productive, posting a solid .265/.313/.457 slash line with a 114 OPS+, and the aforementioned 17 home runs. Defensively, he graded out well, accumulating 3 outs above average, according to Baseball Savant.
On top of that, he maintained his 29 feet per second sprint speed (89th percentile in MLB), which is well above the league average (27 ft/sec), and among the very best at third base. In fact, no other third baseman had a faster time from home plate to first base (4.23 seconds) than Westburg, which is extremely impressive for a right-handed hitter.
All of the tools are there for Westburg to be the type of player that makes all-star teams on a yearly basis and might even get down-ballot MVP consideration some seasons. But he has to stay on the field for any of that to happen.
Table setters
Holliday and Westburg are not the only two hitters on the Orioles roster that need to improve going into 2026 if the team’s hopes of returning to the postseason are going to come true. But they are the two on the roster for which that jump in performance feels the most attainable.
Holliday has already shown he can develop at the major league level. Year two was a humble one in terms of production, but the growth was clear. Now he has a base from which he can build. FanGraphs calculated that he was worth 1.2 WAR in 2024. Many of their projection systems believe he could double that value in 2026, ranging from 2.3 to 3.1 WAR. A performance like that would have him in the all-star conversation, and maybe even some position-specific awards come October. An even bigger jump than that is also possible. After all, he was the absolute top prospect in baseball not so long ago. But let’s see pump the brakes a bit.
Westburg should have no doubt about his ability to be one of the best third basemen in the game. He has already done it, albeit for brief moments. Now it’s about staying off the IL, which can be a skill of sorts that players develop as they get more experience in the game. You can’t eliminate injury risk, but you may be able to mitigate it with adjustments to playing style. Whatever can be done, should be done. The Orioles are a much better team with Westburg in the lineup. If he plays in 130+ games, he is nearly a lock to be a 3.5+ WAR player, and maybe even better.
Lineups obviously aren’t set in stone, but right now the Roster Resource tool at FanGraphs projects the Orioles everyday offense to include Holliday as the leadoff man, a role he handled many times in 2025, and Westburg in the second spot. Right behind them is Henderson at three, with Alonso in the clean-up role. Maybe you like Westburg better in the leadoff spot with Holliday farther down the order, but at the very least that projection illustrates the pair’s expected importance to the team.
In theory, that sounds like a fearsome quartet to face right out of the gate. But it gets far less scary if Holliday can’t continue to grow and Westburg is on the IL more than the infield. The outcome of the 2026 Orioles is not entirely on the duo’s shoulders, but they will need to bare quite a bit of weight.
You can never deny Adam Silver’s ambition to try new things, even when his effort proves futile.
This year, he’s outdone himself by introducing yet another wrinkle to the All-Star game, as the 24 players will now be split into three teams: two filled with Americans and the other comprised of international names. Befuddlingly, the teams are now positionless, and yet, the players selected must still include 12 from each conference, even though the competition is based on nationalities.
With the West having a significant talent advantage as usual, there are many more snubs here when compared to the East. Ultimately, I went with six international players from the West and two from the East, given that there’s no requirement to have an equal number of non-Americans selected from each.
Sorry, you’re still confused? So is everyone else, but we persevere due to the love of the game.
Here are my Western Conference All-Star selections, with the East coming tomorrow.
Starters
Shai Gilgeous-Alexandar: The reigning MVP, Shai has somehow levelled up again this year. He’s averaging 31.6 points on the highest true shooting percentage of his career (66.5) and could lead OKC to a 70-win season. Even with arguably the deepest supporting cast in the league, Shai is the main reason why the Thunder are title favorites: OKC’s offense drops from a 123.5 rating (94th percentile) to a measly 111.7 (22nd) when he sits. Shai is the rightful MVP front-runner and will go down as an all-time great.
Luka Doncic: Luka is putting up video game numbers as usual, averaging 33.6/7.7/8.7 and leading the Lakers to a surprising 24-15 record. Even so, something seems off with him and the team: maybe it’s LA’s negative net rating, or the fact that Luka’s whining more than ever and is leading the league in free throws per game (11.7) by a wide margin (Deni is second at “just” 9.9). Still, the Slovenian Wunderkind remains one of the league’s four best players and should be in line for another First Team All-NBA appearance.
Stephen Curry: Even at 37, Steph remains arguably the game’s greatest spectacle. His 28.1 points per game is the fourth highest of his career, and the Warriors still need his brilliance more than ever. Golden State goes from having an elite 120.5 offensive rating (85th percentile) to just 111.1 (20th) when he sits, and Wardell is once again on track to lead the league in both threes made (4.6) and attempts (11.8).
Victor Wembanyama: The numbers might not seem too different compared to last year, but make no mistake: Wemby has levelled up and is now firmly entrenched as the fifth-best player in the league. Prioritizing inside scoring with his added physicality has made the Alien unstoppable, even though there are still times when he should impose more of his will. Only health can prevent Wemby from winning DPOY and being named to First Team All-NBA, and he’s already good enough to be the best player on a championship team.
Nikola Jokic: Jokic is unquestionably the best player on the planet, and in my eyes, he’s in a tier of his own. Before his injury, the three-time MVP was having his best season ever, and maybe the best of all time — something we seem to repeat every year. Don’t believe me? Jokic was scoring 29.6 points per game while leading the league in rebounds (12.2), assists (11.0), AND true shooting percentage (71.3%). It honestly does not make sense how someone can be this good at basketball, and I’ve got no doubt that we’re watching a top 10 player ever at the peak of his powers.
Reserves
Anthony Edwards: For the first time in his career, Ant is having an efficient season from every area on the court. The 24-year-old is shooting 56.3% from two while maintaining elite volume from deep as well (40.9% on 8.2 attempts a game). The addition of a post-game has turned Ant into a high-level scorer from all three levels, and his 72% finishing around the rim is also among the league’s best (89th percentile). The Wolves are flying under the radar once again, and another run to the Conference Finals isn’t out of the question.
Jamal Murray: Contrary to popular discourse, Murray has never actually deserved an All-Star appearance — until now. The Blue Arrow is having his best regular season by far: his 25.8 scoring average is four points more than his previous career high, and he’s doing it on a career-best 61.6% true shooting too. More importantly, he’s led the Nuggets to a 7-3 record without Jokic, which is somehow a higher win percentage than the one they have with the Joker playing. What in MJ’s name is going on??
Kevin Durant: It’s 2026, and KD is still putting up 26.3 a night on 51.6/40.4/88.7 shooting. The promise of a lighter load in Houston hasn’t materialized, as the Slim Reaper’s minutes (36.5) and field goal attempts (18.0) are still in line with his career norms. Simply put, KD remains one of the league’s most efficient bucket-getters while being the go-to option on a good team, and he’s unquestionably still one of the best players on the planet.
Chet Holmgren: The second-best player on a historically dominant team, Chet is averaging 17.9 points on a ridiculous 66.6% true shooting. His self-creation is still lacking, but there’s no question that Chet has become one of the most efficient play finishers in the league, and that doesn’t even account for his DPOY-level defense. OKC also has a +7.1 net rating with Chet playing without Shai, so he’s not just riding the coattails of the MVP frontrunner, either.
Deni Avdija: Even after last year’s jump, no one expected Deni to average 26.1/7.1/6.9 this season. He’s become a legitimate top 25 player in the league and is the only reason why Portland is in the play-in race. The Blazers are a net-neutral team with a good offense (118.1 rating, 71st percentile) when Deni plays, and they become a bottom-feeder when he sits (-11.1 net rating, 102.6 offensive rating).
Kawhi Leonard: Tree Board Man is quietly having one of the best seasons in the league: Kawhi is averaging 28.2/6.3/3.5 on 49.7/39.9/94.1 shooting. Yes, you read that right. He’s scoring almost 30 points a game while shooting basically 50/40/90, and the Clippers are 12-2 in their last 14 games after a disastrous start. Kawhi is playing at a borderline top-5 level again, and this basketball robot is showing no signs of rust at age 34.
Final spot & honorable mentions
Final spot: Devin Booker
Honorable mentions: Alperen Sengun, Julius Randle, and Rudy Gobert
I went back and forth between Booker, Sengun, Randle, and Gobert for the last spot, but ultimately went with the former. And yes, you read that right: I name-dropped the Stifle Tower in an All-Star column in the big 2026. As ridiculous as that sounds, Gobert should be the frontrunner for DPOY if Wemby doesn’t hit the 65-game requirement. He’s been the second most important Timberwolf this year, as Minnesota is somehow a +7.2 in the minutes Gobert plays without both Ant and Randle, sheerly due to an absurd 94.2 DRTG. More importantly, the Wolves are barely positive in the minutes when Ant and/or Randle play without Gobert, as their defense drops to near league-worst levels. Minnesota only becomes elite on both ends whenever the Frenchman shares the court with one or both of those two scorers.
Randle, meanwhile, is having his most efficient scoring season (60.6% TS) since becoming a go-to option, and the Wolves are sporting an all-time 125.3 offensive rating when he plays without Ant. It’s a similar story with Sengun, whose numbers are up from his All-Star campaign a year ago and have helped the Rockets thrive even in the non-KD minutes: Houston still has a +5.3 net rating while being good on both sides of the ball in the Sengun-only lineups.
However, I ultimately decided to go with Booker because he’s the #1 option on a surprising 24-17 Phoenix team with no other stars (sorry, Dillon Brooks). Yes, Booker’s shooting splits are some of the worst of his career (45.2% field goal, 30.1% from 3), but he’s still hovering around league average in efficiency, and the Suns are a +5.4 with him and -1.5 without him.
All three of the other names have compelling arguments for this last spot, but I’m going with the lone star who’s leading the team that’s overachieved the most this season.
The Milwaukee Bucks will try to forget one of the worst two-game stretches (based on point differential) and end a three-game losing streak against the Atlanta Hawks on the road for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. This is the first time these two Eastern Conference foes have met this season, though the Hawks took the season series 3-2 last year. The last time they played was on March 30, 2025, when the Hawks blew out the Bucks 145-124 in Milwaukee.
Where We’re At
It’s been a rough go for the Bucks over the last several games, after they won four of their previous five games before last Sunday against the Nuggets. That hasn’t happened, as after losing to Denver by four without Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, they lost by 33 at home to the Timberwolves without Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert. Then they lost to the Spurs on Thursday by 18, but the final score doesn’t reflect how bad the game was for the Bucks, who trailed by 39 at one point and were blown out 40-16 in the third quarter. This game is crucial to re-enter the play-in race, as the Hawks are currently 10th with a 1.5-game lead over the 11th-seeded Bucks.
The Hawks are in a similar boat to the Bucks, post-Trae Young trade. They have a record of 2-3 in five games since the trade, but have lost their last three in blowout fashion. First losing by 25 to the Lakers on Tuesday, then to the Trail Blazers by 16 on Thursday, and in their return to Atlanta on Saturday, by 26 to the Celtics. C.J. McCollum has played four of five since Atlanta acquired him, averaging 17 points per game and shooting 39.4% from the floor and 13% from three-point range, for an effective field goal percentage of 41.7%.
Injury Report
There is only one Bucks player on the injury report, with Taurean Prince (neck) still out indefinitely.
The Hawks will be without Kristaps Porzingis again, as he deals with some left Achilles tendinitis, plus N’Faly Dante (torn ACL). The reigning Most Improved Player of the Year, Dyson Daniels, is questionable with a right ankle sprain. Zaccharie Risacher was a later addition to the injury report, and he’ll miss out on this one with a bone contusion in his left knee.
Player To Watch
This will be the fourth time this season the Bucks have played against McCollum. With the Wizards before the aforementioned Young deal, he hasn’t been that good during his time in the ATL, but he’s been a bit of a thorn in the Bucks’ side. In their last meeting, McCollum scored four points in the final 30 seconds to give the Wizards a one-point win at Fiserv Forum on New Year’s Eve. Maybe against a team he’s had success against, McCollum will come out of his funk and give the Bucks some trouble again.
Back when I was updating IWAG in earnest, one of the flags or parameters that I put in was essentially a confidence rating — not just of the point estimate, but the distribution. Not surprisingly, my work and research indicated that it is a lot easier to forecast the upcoming season of a player with at least a handful of MLB seasons under their belts. Younger players, or more accurately, less experienced players, posed a relative challenge. Trying to forecast a to-debut rookie was a nightmare, but second-year players weren’t much better. (I remember a study a while ago by either Tom Tango or Mitchel Lichtman, or maybe both of them, that indicated that assuming league average for a given to-debut rookie ended up less wrong than trying to use their minor league stats and other parameters to actually forecast their performance.)
Unfortunately for me, and for you, if you care about forecasting, Drake Baldwin is a second-year player. His rookie year was great, one of the few things that actually worked in the Braves’ favor in 2025, and now there’s a question of whether he’ll maintain that hardware-and-Prospect Promotion Incentive-winning performance, improve upon it, or backslide for whatever reason.
Career-to-date, status, and recent performance
Baldwin was drafted in the third round of the 2022 MLB Draft, spent the bulk of his first full professional season in High-A, and moved up to Triple-A on a full-time basis midway through 2024, after fewer than 300 PAs in Double-A. The Braves have, historically, promoted guys they expected to be key performers without needing them to pay their dues or pad their stats in Triple-A, but Baldwin wasn’t earmarked for a big league role until Sean Murphy got hurt in Spring Training 2025. Given that Baldwin spent much of 2024 destroying Triple-A pitching, their hand was basically forced — which, as you can tell from how 2025 played out, is not always a bad thing.
Baldwin finished 2025 with 3.1 fWAR in 446 PAs, a pretty sexy WAR-per-600-PAs rate of about 4.2. Catchers can achieve high WAR/600 rates by virtue of the positional adjustment for donning the tools of ignorance (about 1.3 WAR/600 alone) and playing decent defense, but Baldwin DHed a fair bit and was below-average defensively, such that his offense was about three times as valuable as his defense in terms of performance above average.
That offense was revelatory, in part because Baldwin, with seemingly little effort, resembled a paragon of what the 2025 Braves were hoping to sculpt of their hitters: he walked at an average rate, struck out way less than average, and made a ton of contact while maintaining above-average oomph on said contact. While many Braves hitters had long swings that they whipped through the zone, basically leveraging delta-vee to their benefit when connecting, Baldwin kept the bat speed aspect but relied on a shorter swing that seemed to have few ill effects on his power production while allowing him to mitigate swing-and-miss. He obliterated four-seamers (.419 xwOBA) and had no issues with sliders (.365) — in a somewhat-crazy development, he managed a .370 xwOBA against sliders when lacking the platoon advantage. His issue was changeups, but which is not surprising given that he’s a lefty-batting rookie.
He was also pretty consistent, or at least, consistently valuable. His worst monthly xwOBA was .321, when he wore down a bit in September. He had one really great month, with a near-.400 xwOBA in May, but had three others where he was solidly at .350 or above. Defensively, it was more of a mixed bag: he has great mechanics in terms of positioning himself to block and throw, but lacked zip on his throws. In terms of framing, he really struggled to be convincing when he had to reach for the ball — either above the zone or, more critically, across his body. It’s the sort of thing that can probably be fixed mechanically, though I’m not exactly sure whether the Braves are equipped to do that well given the whole William Contreras thing.
Forecasting
So, how do you take this and shove it into 2026? It’s tempting to just say the status quo will prevail — it gives Baldwin the credit for his offensive performance, prevents assuming any uptick defensively, and precludes any headache that one could get from trying to figure out how much Baldwin will or not will be DHing by simply setting it equal to the same rate of catcher-versus-DH breakdown in 2025. Adjustments after using 2025 as a starting point might be easy to eyeball… or not.
For a projection system, well, I think things go back to my first paragraph here: how much do you regress to the mean given how good Baldwin was in 2025? Something is probably warranted, and there’s a big issue that is hard to implement effectively regarding the huge swing in positional adjustment between catcher and DH, which are the two positions that Baldwin will likely play heavily in 2026. IWAG’s best attempt is below, and it’s not really that heartening…
As you can see, IWAG applied some regression to the mean offensively. But, a similarly chunky hit came from something akin to a 2-to-1 split between catcher and DH — which is really different from 2025. Last year, Baldwin only had 52 PAs as a DH, less than one-in-eight if you ignore his pinch-hitting appearances. This year, unless Sean Murphy ends up being a non-entity, 2ish-to-1ish is punishing for Baldwin on a value basis, but it’s hard to assume he’ll hit 500-plus PAs without a breakdown like that.
As far as distributions go, this is a fun one, which is another way of saying, “yeah, IWAG has no idea.” There just isn’t too much to go off of that would cabin the range, and the catcher-versus-DH thing causes a lot of issues that requires pontificating on Sean Murphy’s health and whether any other player gets ensconced at DH, neither of which IWAG is actually capable of doing in a projection for Drake Baldwin.
Your turn
Alright, I’ve given you the info. Well, some info. You may have your own info. With that, I ask you:
Rounded to the nearest fWAR, how much will Drake Baldwin produce in 2026?
How confident are you in your choice? Go with a scale from 1-5, where 3 is “I dunno, reasonably confident,” 5 is certain, and 1 is “I am participating but have no confidence in my choice and don’t want the fact that it will likely be incorrect to affect my place in any theoretical standings all that much.”
Guys, seriously, stop picking numbers that aren’t a whole WAR, though if you do, it’s not like you’ll remember my forced adjustment to it when I score these next autumn anyway.
Wilbur Wood, a man who once threw 376 innings in a season and will undoubtably be the last man in the history of baseball to both win and lose 20 games in the same season, died at 84.
Even though the calendar says 2026, Sunday unfortunately felt a lot like 2025 for the Braves. Ha-Seong Kim, whom the Braves resigned this offseason, will now miss a good portion of the 2026 season with a torn finger tendon. It was a freak injury that occurred when Kim slipped on a piece of ice in his native Korea.
As a result, it will be interesting to see how the Braves respond to the injury in terms of adding infield depth to the roster. With Mauricio Dubon likely playing short as the starter, the Braves could look at different options to add SS depth to the organization.
It appears that the next big domino to fall on the FA market is Cody Bellinger. The Yankees currently have a modified offer out to Bellinger, including opt-outs. However, it has been reported in recent days they feel he could sign elsewhere.
SGA is averaging 30.5 points per night in January, and he’s cashed the Over in points in three of his previous five games. Last time out, Gilgeous-Alexander tallied 39 points in a rare loss to the Heat.
Last Tuesday, he also poured in 34 in a victory over the Spurs. SGA is averaging 31.7 PPG on the road, and he averaged 35.5 across two meetings with the Cleveland Cavaliers last season. Plus, Darius Garland is out, weakening Cleveland’s backcourt defense.
Lock this pick in with confidence as the best version of SGA shows up today.
Thunder vs Cavaliers same-game parlay
With Garland sidelined, playmaking duties fall on Donovan Mitchell's shoulders. Yes, he’s still expected to score at a high level, but the Cavs will also be relying on him to facilitate more than usual.
Although Spida dropped just 13 points on Friday against the 76ers, he also finished with 12 assists. Mitchell is averaging just 5.7 dimes per night, but he’s hit the Over in four of his last five outings.
Chet Holmgren is a beast on the boards, especially lately. Overall, he’s averaging 8.5 rebounds, and he’s cashed the Over four of his last five, finishing with at least 10 boards in each of those games.
Thunder vs Cavaliers SGP
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 31.5 points
Donovan Mitchell Over 6.5 assists
Chet Homgren Over 9.5 rebounds
Our "from downtown" SGP: Joe Cool Gets Hot From Deep
Isaiah Joe has drained Over 1.5 triples in four consecutive appearances.
Thunder vs Cavaliers SGP
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 31.5 points
Donovan Mitchell Over 6.5 assists
Chet Homgren Over 9.5 rebounds
Isaiah Joe Over 1.5 threes
Thunder vs Cavaliers odds
Spread: Thunder -6 (-110) | Cavaliers +6 (-110)
Moneyline: Thunder -245 | Cavaliers +200
Over/Under: Over 234.5 (-110) | Under 234.5 (-110)
Thunder vs Cavaliers betting trend to know
The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 16 games (+9.65 Units / 53% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Cavaliers.
How to watch Thunder vs Cavaliers
Location
Rocket Arena, Cleveland, OH
Date
Monday, January 19, 2026
Tip-off
2:30 p.m. ET
TV
NBC/Peacock
Thunder vs Cavaliers latest injuries
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Upgrading from a league-average bat in the third OF spot to one of the league’s best hitters would be a big gain in any context, but his impact on the Dodgers is boosted further by their already loaded lineup. Tucker provides the pop to drive in LA’s elite OBP guys, while his own OBP presence creates more RBI potential for the still fantastic bottom of the Dodgers’ order.
At Big West Dugout, a writer under the pseudonym Eephus Tosser looked at a few recent transactions — Tucker to the Dodgers, Gavin Lux traded by the Reds included — through an economist’s lens. He alluded to how the Dodgers invested early in building a player development system, which coupled with their vast resources is helping them thrive now.
“They didn’t draft Tucker. They didn’t tank for him. They didn’t reorganize their system to accommodate him. They simply absorbed him—financially and structurally—without changing how they operate,” he wrote. “That’s abundance after discipline. Resource importation without institutional erosion.”
Hopefully three days of rest will have done the Sixers some good. They’re coming off a tough two-game mini series against the Cavaliers, losing two straight capped off by Friday’s narrow 117-115 defeat as they squandered a 10-point lead in the fourth. Cleveland has now passed Philly in the Eastern Conference standings, overtaking them into sixth place.
The Sixers had won six of their previous eight before facing the Cavs, though, and should have a good chance to get back to those winnings ways against Monday’s opponent: the 10-32 Pacers.
Monday’s matchup begins a back-to-back, finishing with an outing against the Suns on Tuesday. And with this in mind, a couple of names are unsurprisingly on the injury report. Joel Embiid and Paul George are both questionable with left knee injury management, while Jared McCain is doubtful on G League assignment. Both Embiid and George have played in nine of the Sixers’ last 10 games, and with the Suns being the harder matchup of this back-to-back, we could see them rest up against Indiana instead if they aren’t going to appear in both games.
The Pacers will remain shorthanded. Apart from Tyrese Haliburton staying out for the season with his achilles tear, Obi Toppin (right foot stress fracture) and Bennedict Mathurin (right thumb sprain) are also out.
It’s been a brutal season for the Pacers without Haliburton. Their defense has just about been passable, ranking 18th, but with the league’s worst offensive rating, their dynamic up-tempo identity that they had with Haliburton orchestrating the team has all but disappeared.
Sure, there have been some positives for the Pacers. Mathurin and Andrew Nembhard are both having career years as they’ve taken on more ball-handling responsibilities (particularly new starting point guard Nembhard) in Haliburton’s absence, all while maintaining solid efficiency. Losing Mathurin on Monday hurts their already stuck offense, though, so the pressure is on in the backcourt for Nembhard to try and spark something against the explosiveness of Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe.
Then there’s Pascal Siakam, the team’s top scorer at 23.6 points per game, who’ll be the top assignment for Dominick Barlow and, if he’s in, George. Without Mathurin too, there’ll likely be even more Siakam drives for the Sixers’ defense to crash around.
Embiid continuing to look like his usual imposing self clearly bodes well if he does suit up on Monday. Over his last 13 games, he’s now averaged 27.9 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.1 blocks with a 61.6 true shooting percentage. With him back to parading his way to free throw line (making 85.8 percent of his 9.2 attempts per game in this stretch), bullying opponents with his face-up game and finding his signature mid-range rhythm again, the Sixers’ offense is looking more well-rounded alongside the Tyrese Maxey show.
If Embiid does sit this one, it’ll be interesting to see how Adem Bona fares. He’s continued to have some impressive moments lately himself…
What a sequence from Adem Bona!
A big-time slam followed by TWO incredible blocks 💥🚫🚫
As good as Jay Huff has been at center for the Pacers since Myles Turner’s departure — providing a little floor spacing, mobility, and 2.1 blocks in only 20.1 minutes per game — Indiana doesn’t have anyone to slow down an improving Embiid. Jo had 39 points in his last game against the Pacers, when the Sixers grabbed a 115-105 win, and they should have more than enough to get a similar result this time around.
Even if Embiid is sidelined, Maxey alone should be able to have his way on Monday. Ideally throw in some respectable three-point shooting, reasonable defensive effort, and a solid night from Edgecombe (despite coming off a couple of quieter games against Cleveland, he’s still averaging 15.1 points and 5.2 assists with 45.9/40.4/86.7 shooting splits in January so far), and the Sixers should be just fine against this Pacers team.
The Sixers’ schedule gets a harder for their next few games after Monday, with games against the Suns, Rockets then Knicks. This matchup against the lowly Pacers has to be one they capitalize on.
Game Details
When: Monday, January 19, 7:00 p.m. ET Where: Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, PA Watch: NBC Sports Philadelphia Radio: 97.5 The Fanatic Follow:@LibertyBallers
Lakers LeBron James and Luka Doncic high five Deandre Ayton during the fourth quarter of their win over Toronto at Crypto.com Arena on Sunday. (Katelyn Mulcahy / Getty Images)
After finishing a grueling five-game stretch in seven days with a 110-93 win over the Toronto Raptors on Sunday, they embark on their longest road trip of the season, an eight-game marathon beginning Tuesday in Denver.
The Lakers (25-16) are clinging to a top-six playoff spot at the midpoint of the season despite playing 19 different starting lineups in the first 41 games. With guard Luka Doncic and centers Deandre Ayton and Jaxson Hayes back in the lineup after they were sidelined against Portland on Saturday, the Lakers notched their first win over a team with a winning record since Dec. 14.
“We’re staying together,” Ayton said. “There’s times where we’ve had some slump moments, but guys in here, we’re cool, we’re tight. … It’s a process and I feel like tonight is another step in the right direction.”
Here are three takeaways from the win:
Ayton in rare air
Lakers center Deandre Ayton goes up for a dunk against the Toronto Raptors at Crypto.com Arena on Sunday. (Kyusung Gong / Associated Press)
With 25 points on 10-for-10 shooting with 13 rebounds, Ayton became the first player this season to record at least 20 points on perfect shooting with at least 10 field goal attempts. After marveling at the Lakers’ championship tradition when he signed as a free agent this summer, the former No. 1 pick made his mark in the franchise record book as just the third Laker to shoot perfectly from the field on 10 or more attempts with at least 10 rebounds. The others are Wilt Chamberlain (March 11, 1969) and Mitch Kupchak (Nov. 20, 1981).
“That’s a thing I never even thought I would be a part of,” said Ayton, who also had zero turnovers. “I’m definitely honored and appreciative, but I love this game, so hopefully I get more of those.”
The center was returning from a one-game absence because of knee soreness. His impact on recent games has fluctuated as his energy dipped. During a particularly quiet stretch, coach JJ Redick said the center was frustrated that he wasn’t getting the ball more, which may have contributed to him averaging only 5.8 rebounds over five games and not finishing the fourth quarter on the court during two close games.
Redick encouraged his playmakers to make sure Ayton got touches early in games. The center now has double-doubles in three of his last four games.
“He's a very important guy for us,” said Doncic, who led the team with 25 points and seven assists. “Very important. … So got to look for him a lot. We got to look for him more. And if he plays like this, it gives us a way better chance to go [far].”
Hachimura finding his rhythm
Laker Rui Hachimura is starting to get his shooting touch back after missing a long stretch of games while recovering from an injury. (Luke Hales / Getty Images)
The two three-pointers Hachimura hit in the final two minutes of the third quarter Sunday will not be played on highlight reels, but they still were significant. They contributed to an 11-3 run that put the Lakers up by seven entering the fourth quarter and could be a sign of Hachimura's progress after returning from injury.
“Those were big shots for us,” Redick said. “They're a top-three defense. In a game like this, where it's hard to score, and it's a low possession game, and it can be a little muddy, those shots were huge for us.”
The two three-pointers were a much-needed sight for Hachimura, who finished with 10 points on four-for-10 shooting with two threes in six attempts. The forward said he still is finding his rhythm after a calf injury kept him out for six games.
Hachimura combined for 10 points in his first two appearances since the injury, shooting four for 11 from the field and two for seven from three-point range. He still is playing on a minutes restriction that keeps him on the bench to start games. But with 11 points against Portland on Saturday, Hachimura appears to be rediscovering his form, Redick said.
Hachimura played 21 minutes 46 seconds Sunday, the most since he returned from the calf injury. He still had a few more minutes available, Redick said.
In the zone
Finishing a grueling stretch of five games in seven days, the Lakers were “a little bit exhausted,” Hachimura acknowledged. Redick had a secret weapon to perk them up.
The Lakers rolled out a zone defense to begin the second quarter. The sheer size of a lineup with the 7-foot Ayton, 6-8 Jarred Vanderbilt, 6-9 James and 6-10 Drew Timme with 6-3 Marcus Smart at point guard was jarring to see in person, Redick acknowledged. But the zone defense was critical to helping slow the pace for a team trying to survive its fifth game in seven days.
Lakers forward Drew Timme shoots under pressure from Toronto Raptors forward Jamison Battle at Crypto.com Arena on Sunday. (Kyusung Gong / Associated Press)
The Lakers started the second quarter on a 9-0 run that quickly erased the Raptors’ seven-point lead.
Timme earned a place in the rotation for the second consecutive night after he scored a career-high 21 points against Portland on Saturday. He hit one three-pointer Sunday and had three rebounds with two assists.
The former Gonzaga star signed a two-way contract Nov. 25 after starring with the G League affiliate South Bay Lakers. He averaged a team-high 25.5 points, 7.5 rebounds and four assists in the first six G League games and has been able to translate that work to the NBA level, even if his opportunities are limited.
“[South Bay Lakers have] challenged me to add that to my game and be more of a playmaker on the perimeter and decision-maker on the perimeter,” said Timme, who has played 63 minutes in eight games. “And I've been down there for a decent amount, and then they hold me accountable and they push me and then they keep me sharp for moments when I am called upon. And you just gotta be ready whenever your number's called.”
