Category: Sports News

Welcome to Inside the Suns, your weekly deep down analysis of the current Phoenix Suns team. Each week the Fantable — a round table of Bright Siders — give their takes on the Suns’ latest issues and news.

Fantable Questions of the Week

Q1: This offseason, the Suns will have the option to go forward in either of two directions. They can shed some salary to stay under the luxury tax level or keep the team largely intact, which probably pushes them over the 1st tax apron. Which option do you think is likely the best one for the team?

GuarGuar: I think we will probably try to go under the first apron, but I really don’t want to split this group up. They are a really good team when healthy and can compete with anyone. I’d love to see what another year of continuity could accomplish. Ishbia is an owner willing to spend, so I can see us keeping almost everyone this offseason.

Diamondhacks: I let Mat Ishbia navigate NBA aprons. Perhaps more central to how the Suns best position themselves for sustained excellence may be Ott and Gregory’s demonstrated ability to identify and assimilate surprisingly useful contributors, at least so far, at reasonable cost.

This ability dovetails with my generic belief that standing pat, primarily to “hold onto” older players deemed mission critical, is most often a suboptimal long-term strategy.

Ashton: What a great team. Right, Suns fans?

You really do not want to mess with the gears that turn into what almost every national pundit describes as a “surprising Suns team”. I know I am surprised. That should be enough to support going into the luxury tax. Our very own Rod Argent had a comment that nothing really prohibits the Suns from going into this area.

But, in Brian Gregory we trust, and if he can continue to find talent in a pool of scrubs, then let’s avoid the luxury repeater tax and the first apron. This season has been defined, on an almost weekly basis, of the next upcoming players by commentators and writers alike. You pick a player favorite on recent bias. And then another favorite emerges.

I hate to say it all, but to accomplish these goals, some bait must be cut for the betterment of the Sun’s organization. So, my contrarian view is to stay under the luxury tax and first round and try to find the next NBA potential player hungry enough to stay and play the position.

OldAz: I probably have some of my facts wrong on this one, and Rod will mock me terribly as this is in his wheelhouse, but here goes. As I understand it, the 1st Apron should be about $210 million next season, and the Suns currently have 12 players under contract for about $161.5 million and another $23.2 million in dead cap money.

The three players from this year’s team NOT already signed for next season are Gillespie, Williams, and Goodwin. My best guess on those contracts would be about $14 million for Gillespie, $12-15 million for Williams, and $4-5 million for Goodwin, which would put them about $5-10 million over the 1st tax to keep it all together. However, as Fleming develops, Brooks gets healthy, and Dunn finds his footing, I think there is a path to basically doing both by trading Royce O’Neale (and his $10M salary) and taking back as little in salary as possible.

Getting under the tax for a second year would be huge, as it would completely reset any potential repeater penalties for the next few seasons. Unless my numbers are off (likely) and until we see more of how Green fits in with this current group, this would be my strategy going into the off-season.

Rod: Staying under the 1st tax apron won’t be a big problem next year, but staying under the luxury tax line could be. Contrary to what some may believe, the luxury tax line and the 1st tax apron are not the same thing. The luxury tax line is at $201.7 million, the 1st TA starts at $210.3 million. The combined salary for 11 players under contract next year, plus the dead money on the cap sheet, leaves the Suns only about $16.7 million under the luxury tax line. That would cover re-signing Collin Gillespie to the max amount he can be paid, but there wouldn’t be enough left after that to sign a single player to a vet minimum contract without going over the luxury tax line.

Basically, the Suns can’t avoid paying luxury taxes next year without moving some contracts to clear some room on their cap sheet. They can certainly do that, but the question is whether they can do that without the team taking a step (or two) backwards quality-wise. While that might be possible, taking a step forward while cutting salaries would likely be difficult without some of the younger guys on the roster taking big leaps in their level of play.

I could see the Suns dipping their toes into the 1st tax apron waters to start next season, but not diving in headfirst. If they decide that they could lose too much by staying below it, they could cross that line to begin the season and then make some moves to drop back below it before the trade deadline if things don’t pan out. Where teams start the season regarding the tax line and the TAs doesn’t matter nearly as much as where they finish. If they finish it below the tax line, it still counts as a season under it and the repeater tax penalties are wiped from their slate. To me, this would seem to be the best option for them this offseason.

Q2: How much of a factor do you think Mark Williams’ injury will play in his possible return to the Suns after this season and the size of his future contract offer(s)?

GuarGuar: Mark’s got a long injury history. I mean, we spent the whole summer just trying to get his body ready to play basketball. He didn’t practice most of training camp. He looked pretty durable so far, but this recent injury, hopefully, is just a little speed bump and doesn’t linger. I can’t see us giving him a contract with many years on it; that would be pretty risky. I can see a short amount of years, but a high annual salary average for those years.

Diamondhacks: Both Mark’s performance and financial projections likely hinge on the nature of the injury. Better if it’s a one-off, perceived as something he can put behind him. Worse if it’s deemed chronic or pre-existing.

Ashton: Again, I am so impressed that he lasted this long off the injury list (Lakers, you all need better medical evaluators). This should be enough to justify increased interest and a pay bump by other interested NBA teams. The Suns should let him walk or try to trade him for a late first in 2026) as per Q1 requirement. MW did his job with the Suns organization with the opportunity that he had. Like Sam Darnold in the NFL (Seattle), a player can come to the Valley as a reclamation project in the NBA and prove themselves worthy. Not so sure about the Cards organization, though.

The Suns will have to rely on Oso and KM (please stop with the Man Man references), and they are doing quite well with that duo. Fleming is blowing up to be someone who can man (man) the PF position beside Brooks (unless he blows his career up in smoke).

And with the 47th pick, the Suns need to take a serious look at Tobe Awaka, 100 miles down south. This guy powers through everything in the front court for the offensive rebound and is smart enough to pass the ball out or just go up again to draw the foul.

Enjoy the March Madness, all! Remember, these players are the foundation of what the NBA is built upon.

OldAz: The center position has been marginalized in the modern NBA unless you are someone like Jokic or Wemby. However, the center position is also one that is prone to injury while still being able to draw massive contracts (Anthony Davis? Joel Embiid?). I actually think this season really helps him in this case, because he has played more games and been effective. This is assuming he comes back healthy and contributes in the playoffs, however.

What works against him the most is that he is still young and has yet to establish how dominant he can be at the position. Average starting centers are making $15 million -$20 million in the NBA, and center-needy teams would love to add someone like Williams, who hustles and plays the way Williams can. Heck, every time DA has a bad game in LA, their fans go back to lamenting that they could have had Williams, whose motor runs so much hotter. I suspect that Williams will get a deal somewhere between $12-$15 million per year on this next contract, and if he can replicate the number of games played from this season throughout that contract while also building on his skill set, then he could be in line for a Miles Turner-type deal the next time around. However, I don’t see any team going over that this time around simply because of his injury history.

Rod: As a restricted free agent, it’s definitely going to have other teams leery of giving him an offer sheet…or at least offer him a big one. Depending on how he finishes this season, I could even see him back with the Suns next year playing for the QO ($8.8 mil) before becoming an unrestricted free agent in 2027-28. While that would be bad for him, it might be the best thing for the Suns considering how Khaman has progressed. I’d like to keep him on the team but I think Khaman and Oso are the Suns’ long-term tag team at center and wouldn’t risk a high salary contract on Williams with the admittedly limited info I have on his present injury.

Q3: In the long run, who do you believe will develop into the better player overall, Ryan Dunn or Rasheer Fleming?

GuarGuar: Fleming is better right now, and I think he will continue to be the better of the two. Fleming’s a better athlete, scorer, shooter, and rebounder than Dunn. They are neck and neck on defense, and I’ve seen more improvement from Fleming in this single season than Dunn has in his year and a half so far. Dunn’s offensive limitations will hold him back as long as he has them. My bet is on Sheer to be the better player going forward 100%.

Diamondhacks: Ryan Dunn can continue to improve, but after 2500 NBA minutes, he still looks like he’s mostly trying to fit in and not screw up too much. Rasheer Fleming, at 350 mins, is starting to call for the ball. And his mates are looking for him. I believe it’s less a cocky thing than a mutual learned confidence that he can knock down a shot, take his man to the paint, or even rifle a one-handed dime on the run to an open teammate at the arc. Not all the time, certainly, or even most of the time. But my early general impression is that, for such an inexperienced player, his teammates already like sharing the court with him.

Ashton: I stated last week that “Sheer” was my most overlooked player on Inside the Suns. So, I must stand by that statement, even if I was the only one out of the Fantable to make that statement. Look, I make statements that age like milk, but in this case, this is more like fine cheese or wine. Fleming is the easy answer. Dunn is maybe Done.

Again, I am looking forward to hungry NBA players who want to make a name for themselves in a very competitive market. I just do not see Dunn there with recency bias or as a long-term solution.

OldAz: This is still way too early to tell. Fleming is such a physical specimen that it is tempting to just go with him, but in reality, NBA history is littered with freakish talent that only ever showed out in spurts or had some other issue derail an otherwise promising career.

Dunn, on the other hand, is suffering through a rougher sophomore season and is struggling to find his footing on a team that could use a bigger wing at either forward position. Additionally, while the Suns are certainly leaning into better practices when it comes to developing young players, Dunn was not drafted by the current leadership and has not found the same level of success as Oso this year.

Who ends up being the better player long term will entirely depend on their desire and continued effort over the next 5+ years. Growth is not linear, and it takes perseverance and a strong mental makeup to overcome the struggles that will inevitably come. For now, if I had to bet, it would probably be on Fleming, but only because his size puts him at such an advantage to get playing time on the current “7 dwarfs” roster construction the Suns have and because his outside shot has found a whole lot more consistency compared to Dunn’s (so far).

Rod: The sample size for Fleming is still pretty small, but he already just looks more comfortable on an NBA court than Dunn, who is in his second year and has over 6 times the total game time minutes of Rasheer. This isn’t meant to be a knock on Dunn. Dunn is a good player and should have a good NBA career, but he often seems to be playing outside his comfort zone when on offense. I don’t see that in Rasheer. In fact, he seems more and more comfortable on an NBA court the more he plays, and he’s largely effective on both ends of the court. Neither one may ever approach the “star” level of play in the NBA, but at this moment, I believe Rasheer has the higher ceiling.

As always, many thanks to our Fantable members for all their extra effort this week!

Quotes of the Week

“I ain’t gonna lie, I’m just playing right now…staying in the moment.” – Rasheer Fleming

“We went again with no true 5, really opens up the floor for him (Jalen Green), specifically. That’s been the solution the last two nights (vs Bucks and Pacers). Doesn’t mean it will be tomorrow night.” – Jordan Ott

“His energy is on 24/7.” – Jordan Ott on Jordan Goodwin

“That’s two buckets getters doing what they do best.” – Ryan Dunn on Booker and Green combining for 79 points vs the Pacers

“You never can anticipate everything that’s going to happen in the game, but once situations come up that we haven’t covered or come up yet this season, we try to address it right then and there. Talk through it. Those lines of communication are growing. We need to speed it up. Practice time is limited this time of the year.” – Jordan Ott

Suns Trivia/History

Random Suns stats (from Stat Defender/Twitter):

Phoenix Suns — 14.3 Offensive Rebounds Per Game Post All-Star Break – Tied for 2nd best in the NBA
Phoenix Suns — 18.2 Fouls committed Per Game Post All-Star Break – Tied for 5th fewest in the NBA
Phoenix Suns — 19.1 Points Scored Per Game Off Turnovers Post All-Star Break – 9th best in the NBA
Phoenix Suns — 1.08 Points Per Possession Given Up In Transition For The Regular Season – Tied for 2nd fewest in the NBA
5th Best EFG% On ISOs For The 2025-26 NBA Regular Season – Devin Booker (53.8% EFG%)

In Thursday’s game against the Pacers, Devin Booker’s 43 pts and Jaylen Green’s 36 pts marked the first time a Suns duo scored 40+ and 35+ in the same regular season game since Amare Stoudemire (41 pts) and Steve Nash (36 pts) did it on 3/31/08 against Denver in a 132-117 Suns win.

On March 15, 2009, on the second night of a back-to-back, the SSOL Phoenix Suns scored the most fast-break points ever in a game (56) during a 154-130 win on the road against the Golden State Warriors. This game is also tied for the 4th-highest scoring output by the Suns in team history. The game it is tied with was played almost exactly 20 years earlier on March 23, 1989 and was also on the second night of a back-to-back on the road at Golden State. The Suns won that one 154-124.

On March 19, 1969, NBA Commissioner Walter Kennedy flipped a coin, Phoenix called ‘heads,’ and it turned up ‘tails. Thus, Milwaukee chose first in the NBA Draft, eventually selecting Lew Alcindor (now Kareem Abdul-Jabbar) while Phoenix picked Neal Walk with the 2nd pick.

On March 22, 2000, the Suns lost Jason Kidd for the remainder of the regular season after he broke his ankle during a 114-93 win over Sacramento at America West Arena. The following day, the Suns announced that Kevin Johnson was coming out of retirement to help his former team in its time of need. Johnson, 34, whose career average of 9.2 apg ranks fourth in NBA history, had not played since the 1997-98 season.

This Eeek’s Game Schedule

Monday, March 16 – Suns @ Boston Celtics (4:30 pm)
Tuesday, March 17 – Suns @ Minnesota Timberwolves (5:00 pm)
Thursday, March 19 – Suns @ San Antonio Spurs (5:00 pm)

This Week’s Valley Suns Game Schedule

Saturday, March 14 – Valley Suns @ Windy City Bulls (5:00 pm)
Tuesday, March 17 – Valley Suns vs Stockton Kings (7:00 pm) ESPN+
Thursday, March 19 – Valley Suns @ San Diego Clippers (4:00 pm)

Important Future Dates

March 28 – NBA G League Regular Season ends
March 31 – 2026 NBA G League Playoffs begin
April 12 – Regular season ends (All 30 teams play)
April 13 – Rosters set for NBA Playoffs 2026 (3 p.m. ET)
April 14-17 – SoFi NBA Play-In Tournament
April 18 – NBA Playoffs begin

Jaylen Brown and moving goal posts

Jaylen Brown has spent a fair bit of time this season talking about the rules of the game, or more specifically, the enforcement of them.

I think he’s got a point.

But I also think that getting yourself tossed from a game because you lose your cool in a major way is a bad way of going about it. At the same time, let’s take a look at why Jaylen was tossed…

The pool report from the officials after the game in San Antonio says that he was ejected for using profanity, being aggressive, and pointing.

This is sort of the problem with NBA rules in general.

In the NBA you are permitted incidental contact with opponents.

But what is incidental contact? Sure, it’s defined in the rule book, but what about the application of that definition?

That varies from official to official.

According to the rules, contact stops being ‘incidental’ when it interferes with an offensive player’s “speed, quickness, balance and/or rhythm”—a definition that seems to perfectly match the play that set Brown off—yet it wasn’t called. And why wasn’t it called? Not because the contact was incidental, but because the official thought it was. There’s a judgment call there, and that judgment call varies from official to official, and even from moment to moment.

In the same context, players swear at officials all the time. They point when addressing officials all the time, and sometimes they get aggressive when expressing their grievances.

So what is the definition of ‘too much’ profanity, or aggression, or pointing? When do these things stop being ‘incidental’, so to speak?

That also varies from official to official.

All Brown is asking for, and it seems perfectly reasonable to me, is for more consistency among officials.

In doing this, Jaylen is doing what he’s always done. He’s making his own path, and he’s being clear about what he wants to see and what he thinks about the games that are played around the game itself. He’s not afraid, as Bill Sy put it, to say the quiet part out loud.

His insistence on forging his own path, defining himself and setting his own priorities has probably come with a cost.

Where the conventional path for a player of his talent would have been to try to force his way into a situation where he could put his individual skills on display, Jaylen Brown stuck with Boston, following advice given to him by Tracy McGrady, as revealed on the Cousins podcast earlier this week. Had Jaylen done what so many players before him have done, he might’ve ended up someplace where his skills would put him in the MVP conversation. After all, there aren’t that many guys who can put up 30 points a night while guarding the other team’s best player.

But that’s not the lot that Brown chose for himself. He didn’t follow conventions, and that’s put him on the outside looking in when it comes to conventional awards.

Brown is a smart guy, and I think he was smart enough to have been something of an outsider as a teen. He probably knows what it’s like to find yourself out of the in-crowd, and I think he’s absolutely correct that the MVP conversation is very much about a group of players that are ‘in’ and a group of players that are ‘out,’ and Brown, as an outsider, is probably incapable of doing anything that will get him ‘in’ the MVP conversation.

Brown is having a season that should net him serious MVP consideration, but it’s not going to happen.

As Brown expressed it on the Cousins podcast, the MVP trendsetters keep moving the goal posts on him, and I think that’s a fair assessment. He’s just not “MVP material,” in their view, and he never will be, whatever the heck that means. Even with some fans, I get the sense that he’ll never be good enough for them.

Brown’s always been something of a square peg, and honestly, more power to him for that. I don’t think he likes the hoopla that surrounds the game, and he clearly has been sacrificing his offensive game for years to win with Tatum. He’s not your ordinary everyday superstar, and the Celtics are that much better because he isn’t. I’m sure he’ll retire with multiple rings, and eventually view this year’s MVP snub as being of no greater concern than losing a high school popularity contest.

An unfinished symphony

One of the more impressive things, at least initially, about Beethoven’s Ninth is that he wrote the symphony after he was completely deaf.

But you see, the thing is, most composers right up until the advent of modern notation software, were more or less deaf when they wrote their orchestral works. They had to imagine how the instruments would sound together without actually hearing the piece as a whole, and often the first time the composer heard the piece performed in its entirety and in earnest was at its premiere.

The Celtics have been kind of like that orchestral work-in-progress this season. We’ve had to use our imaginations to fill in the gaps. Even with Tatum back, the team is still missing Vucevic.

This week, the C’s faced two tough tests—road matchups against San Antonio and Oklahoma City.

They essentially turned into rehearsals. As Grant Burfeind called them, these were information gathering performances. Data points were collected as the Celtics, minus key players in both games, fought valiantly to keep things close (especially close against the Thunder), but eventually dropped each matchup.

Yet, even as the C’s collected data points, the Spurs and Thunder were denied those opportunities, as the Celtics were less than full strength. The Spurs haven’t really seen how the Celtics matchup with Pritchard, Brown and Tatum in the lineup, and the Thunder don’t know how the Celtics will matchup against them either. That might not be important this year, but then again it might be.

The bottom line is that the Celtics are still very much an unfinished symphony—whether it eventually turns out to be a masterpiece remains to be seen.

Putting some records in perspective

Boston’s game against the Thunder was also noteworthy as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander broke Wilt Chamberlain’s record for consecutive games scoring 20 or more points.

I’m not going to say that SGA’s accomplishment is trivial. It plainly is not. Other stars before him have not come close to that number. After SGA, Wilt holds the next two records at 126 and 92 consecutive games. Fourth place, held by Oscar Robertson is 79 games. SGA just set a record that is 48 games longer than any other player besides Wilt.

But…

Those Wilt records need some context. First off, SGA set his record over the course of 127 consecutive games played. Wilt set his record over 126 games, period. He didn’t miss a single game during the course of setting that record. Wilt also holds the record for most consecutive 30 point games (65), the top three spots for most consecutive games with 40 or more points (14), the top four spots for most consecutive games with 50 or more points (7), and he is the only player to record multiple 60 point games in a row (4).

Additionally, Wilt’s 126 game 20 point streak was ended when he was ejected in his 127^th game. He came back and immediately started another streak. This one was 92 games in length.

Wilt was a one man demolition squad in his prime.

Mind you, the game was easier back then. Most centers had come up under the instruction that leaving your feet to defend was a mortal sin, so it was relatively easy for a guy who was already taller than practically the whole rest of the league to shoot over the top of guys who were scared to death to defend him by jumping.

But the game was also harder. There was a level of physicality that would not be fathomable to players today. There were fewer teams too. This actually makes things harder not easier, because the best of college basketball’s talent was crammed into just eight teams when Chamberlain was in his prime. He also played every single game in three consecutive seasons. This during an era when transport was mostly by train, which isn’t as bad as it seems—unless you’re trying to sleep in a bunk that’s designed for a much much shorter person—and a time when sports medicine was little more than good intentions and an Ace bandage.

It was a period that suited Chamberlian to a T.

Of course, Chamberlain came up in the news on Wednesday night as well, when Bam Adebayo tallied 83 points against the hapless Washington Wizards

It’s too bad Wilt’s not here, because he would’ve been impressed by Adebayo’s free throw attempts in that 83 point game. Bam was sent to the line 43 times—an astonishing 26 of the Wizards’ 34 personal fouls were committed against Bam. The number of fouls called was also significantly higher than the Wizards’ season average, which is only 21.3 per game.

Was Bam getting a friendly whistle? Or was he just benefiting from the confusion of a bad defense trying to stop him at all costs?

In any event, the Miami Heat took to fouling Wizard players intentionally in order to prolong the game and give Adebayo more chances to score.

I’m not going to say that this cheapens the accomplishment of scoring 83 points, except that it kind of does.

I don’t think there should be an asterisk next to Adebayo’s name, but I think a bit of context for future fans is in order—a note that even though Bam got to second place within the rules of the game, those rules were bent a bit to give him as many chances to score as possible.

Kawhi Leonard scored 28 points to equal a franchise record as the Los Angeles Clippers beat the Chicago Bulls 119-108 in the NBA.

Leonard scored at least 20 points for the 44th consecutive game to match Bob McAdoo's single-season mark in 1974-75, when the Clippers were based in Buffalo.

Bennedict Mathurin contributed 26 points at Intuit Dome as the Clippers improved to 7-1 in March and took their season record to 34-32.

They are eighth in the Western Conference, while the Bulls, who suffered a second defeat in two nights in LA after losing to the Lakers on Thursday, are 12th in the East.

Kevin Durant scored 32 points as the Houston Rockets survived a late scare to beat the New Orleans Pelicans 107-105 at home.

Houston, without All-Star center Alperen Sengun because of a back injury, led throughout but a 12-1 run from the Pelicans helped them take a 104-100 lead with 31 seconds remaining.

Forward Jabari Smith Jr hit a three-pointer to swing the tide back in the Rockets' favour before two critical turnovers in the final stages secured victory.

Anthony Edwards scored 42 points to help the Minnesota Timberwolves end a three-game losing streak with a 127-117 win over the Golden State Warriors in San Francisco.

Jrue Holiday recorded 25 points and eight assists as the Portland Trail Blazers completed a four-game series sweep of the Utah Jazz with a 124-114 win at home.

In this Instagram installment of the behind-the-scenes Spurs interviews, they pull the curtain back on which teammate they’d choose to be their coach. The results are telling about their game and personality.

Victor Wembanyama chose Luke Kornet. As an elder statesman, Kornet has earned the respect of the next great face of the NBA.

Devin Vassell chose Victor because of how intensely Wembanyama takes the game, even considering how young the burgeoning superstar is.

Carter Bryant stated that Harrison Barnes “makes the game sound so simple” by dissecting it. A young mind gaining knowledge from seasoned vet is a definite win.

Julian Champagnie went with Jordan McLaughlin sharing that his choice is “underrated.” As fans, we don’t witness much of McLaughlin’s game. Curious to see what stands out for Champagnie and how he has been influenced thus far.

Speaking of McLaughlin, he also went with Harrison Barnes becaise he understands how the game “is supposed to be played.”

For Bismack Biyombo, the “obvious” choise is D’Aaron Fox. As a point guard, Fox perceives the game from a different vantage point and the Congolese center believes that knowledge is important.

In my opinion, Luke Kornet gave the most introspective response. He went with Devin Vassell as the coach he’d “want,” but then added that Stephon Castle is the coach he’d “need.” There is an important distinction when considering one’s growth and development.

What do you think, Pounders? Who’d make a good Spurs coach? Any surprises in the responses? Anyone not acknowledged that you believe should be listed?

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We are one day from the 2026 NCAA Tournamentbeing revealed, and there is still uncertainty when it comes to the bubble.

Conference tournament week is the final chance for teams to prove they belong in March Madness, and for the most part, squads weren't taking advantage of the opportunities. But everything got flipped upside down when Miami (Ohio) suffered its first loss of the season so it won't get an automatic bid. Now the bubble picture has a new member, making it a much more complicated race for the final spots in the brackets.

Most teams are done and will have to wait until the bracket announcement, but there are a few still playing looking to strengthen their case − and possibly secure automatic spots to make it an even crazier race. Here is a look at the March Madness bubble in the latest USA TODAY Sports Bracketology.

March Madness automatic bids: Who is in NCAA Tournament bracket?

Texas

• Record: 18-14 (9-9)
• NET Ranking: 42
• Quad 1 record: 6-9
• Projected seed: No. 11
• Quality wins: at Alabama, vs. Vanderbilt
• Bad losses: vs. Arizona State (neutral), Mississippi State, vs. Mississippi (neutral)

You never want to go into Selection Sunday on a losing streak, and Texas is learning how uncomfortable it can make the situation. Losing the last two games of the regular season wasn't the worst thing in the world, but falling to conference cellar dweller Mississippi in your first conference tournament game is. Texas has the best chance to make the field out of the rest of the bubble, but that doesn't mean it will avoid playing in the First Four.

Santa Clara

• Record: 26-8 (15-3)
• NET Ranking: 40
• Quad 1 record: 2-6
• Projected seed: No. 11 (first four)
• Quality wins: vs. Saint Mary's (twice)
• Bad losses: vs. Loyola Chicago (neutral), vs. Arizona State (neutral)

The West Coast Conference is looking like a three-bid league thanks to Santa Clara doing as much as it could without winning the tournament title. The Broncos needed to make the championship game to feel confident about moving up and they did that with a second win over Saint Mary's. Santa Clara had a chance to beat Gonzaga but it was an impressive showing that put it in a comfortable spot as the most of the conference tournaments began.

VCU

• Record: 25-7 (15-3)
• NET Ranking: 44
• Quad 1 record: 2-5
• Projected seed: No. 11 (first four)
• Quality wins: vs. South Florida (neutral)
• Bad losses: at George Mason

A team that has a chance to flip the bubble around, VCU is still in the hunt for an automatic bid by advancing to the Atlantic 10 semifinal. Given the resume doesn't have any real strong wins, the Rams are far from done and will want to at least make the conference title game to position themselves in a not-so dangerous position. There will be lots of squads tuning in to this team.

SMU

• Record: 20-13 (8-10)
• NET Ranking: 37
• Quad 1 record: 4-10
• Projected seed: No. 11 (first four)
• Quality wins: vs. North Carolina, vs. Louisville
• Bad losses: vs. LSU (neutral), at California, at Syracuse, at Florida State

No team may have played its way out of the tournament like SMU. After looking like they were safe all season, the Mustangs ended the regular season on a rather ugly four-game losing streak. SMU needed a few wins in the ACC tournament to wash out that bad taste, but it only beat Syracuse before a dismal ending resulted in a loss to Louisville. It not only has 13 losses but there are some tough defeats sprinkled in, making for a much more stressful Selection Sunday than what was thought a few weeks ago.

Miami Ohio

• Record: 31-1 (18-0)
• NET Ranking: 64
• Quad 1 record: 0-0
• Projected seed: No. 11 (first four)
• Quality wins: vs. Akron
• Bad losses: vs. Massachusetts (neutral)

Everything changed when Miami (Ohio) lost its first game. Not only was it a defeat, it came in the first game of the MAC tournament against eighth-place Massachusetts, barely qualifying as a Quad 3 loss. The record speaks for itself but the resume leaves plenty to be desired, especially with the NET ranking dropping 10 spots after the loss. There are plenty of arguments for why this team should or shouldn't be in and they're all valid. The entire bubble hinges on whether the RedHawks make it in or not.

New Mexico

• Record: 23-10 (13-7)
• NET Ranking: 45
• Quad 1 record: 2-7
• Projected seed: First four out
• Quality wins: at Virginia Commonwealth, vs. Santa Clara
• Bad losses: at New Mexico State, vs. Colorado State

If you're going to get a second chance at life, better not waste it. New Mexico was gifted another shot thanks to some other teams faltering, but it needed to make some real noise at the Mountain West tournament to really take advantage of it. Unfortunately, the Lobos couldn’t capitalize, losing to San Diego State on a heart-breaking last second shot in the semifinals. It makes the path to a bid tough, and New Mexico will root for Utah State in the title game so the Aztecs don’t steal a bid.

Oklahoma

• Record: 19-15 (7-11)
• NET Ranking: 47
• Quad 1 record: 4-9
• Projected seed: First four out
• Quality wins: at Vanderbilt, at Texas
• Bad losses: vs. Arizona State (neutral), at Mississippi State, at South Carolina

When bubble teams struggled, Oklahoma took advantage by winning the last four of the regular season. It kept the momentum going in the SEC tournament with two major wins to advance to the quarterfinals, where it fell to Arkansas. While it was a valiant effort, a win was really needed to move up the bubble, so it's looking like it will be a tough Sunday for the Sooners.

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Auburn

• Record: 17-16 (7-11)
• NET Ranking: 39
• Quad 1 record: 4-13
• Projected seed: First four out
• Quality wins: vs. St John's (neutral), vs. Arkansas, at Florida
• Bad losses: vs. Mississippi, at Mississippi State

The most perplexing record in the conversation. Auburn only beat Mississippi State in the SEC tournament, unable to get another signature win to help its case. The Tigers have great wins, but 16 losses would be the most for an at-large team and it's hard to justify, no matter the schedule. This will be the team everyone will be wondering about when the bracket comes out.

Indiana

• Record: 18-14 (9-11)
• NET Ranking: 41
• Quad 1 record: 3-10
• Projected seed: First four out
• Quality wins: vs. Purdue, at UCLA, vs. Wisconsin
• Bad losses: at Minnesota, at USC, vs. Northwestern (twice)

After ending the season with 1-5 mark in the last six games, the Hoosiers needed a strong showing in the Big Ten tournament to make a case. Instead, they were one-and-done, suffering another excruciating defeat to Northwestern. That will extend the tournament drought to three years.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: March Madness bubble watch one day before tournament bracket is set

There will soon be a March Madness bracket.

It's something at this part of the college basketball calendar that the avid and casual fan is anxiously awaiting, as they build out their March Madness TV schedule and begin to think about how they will fill out their NCAA Tournament bracket challenges.

But as this time of the year also proves on an annual basis, the bracket looks different than it did March 13, two days before, or even a week before. It's the results of top-seeded teamslike Miami (Ohio) having lost early in their respective conference tournaments, and teams that entered championship week on the bubble sustained a loss that knocked them off.

REQUIRED READING: These 10 teams have most at stake in March Madness bracketology

The last two spots on the bubble have been interchangeable in the 48 hours since the Redhawks lost in the MAC tournament. It created some bad news for teams like Auburn, which was hanging onto a potential trip to the First Four despite their late-season slide. There have also been other teams that are in the "Next Four Out" trying to get in because of this, and the fact that they've been able to get some wins in their respective tournaments themselves.

The known factor for tomorrow's selection show is that it will include 31 teams who earned their respective conferences' automatic bid. The other likely known factor will be that Duke, Arizona and Michigan will see their names on the 1-seed line.

Ten different conference tournaments will crown a champion on Saturday around the country. There will be six teams crowned on Sunday in the lead-up to the bracket reveal on CBS at 6 p.m. ET, or after the Big Ten championship concludes, as it has a 3:30 p.m. ET tip-off.

Here's an updated look at the NCAA Tournament bubble, with which teams are locks and which are likely going dancing as conference tournaments continue and Selection Sunday inches closer:

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March Madness bracket bubble watch tracker

Tracker based on games through Friday, March 13

NCAA Tournament automatic qualifiers

Here's a look at the list of teams that have already secured a bid to the NCAA Tournament by winning their conference's respective automatic qualifier ticket:

• America East: March 14 at 11 a.m. ET
• American: March 15 at 3:15 p.m. ET
• ACC: March 14 at 8:30 p.m. ET
• ASUN: Queens (N.C.)
• Atlantic 10: March 15 at 1 p.m. ET
• Big 12: March 14 at 6 p.m. ET
• Big East: March 14 at 6:30 p.m. ET
• Big Sky: Idaho
• Big South: High Point
• Big Ten: March 15 at 3:30 p.m. ET
• Big West: March 14 at 10 p.m. ET
• CAA: Hofstra
• Conference USA: March 14 at 8:30 p.m. ET
• Horizon League: Wright State
• Ivy League: March 15 at Noon ET
• MAAC: Siena
• MAC: March 14 at 8 p.m. ET
• MEAC: March 14 at 1 p.m. ET
• Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
• Mountain West: March 14 at 6 p.m. ET
• Northeast: Long Island
• Ohio Valley: Tennessee State
• Patriot League: Lehigh
• SEC: March 15 at 1 p.m. ET
• SoCon: Furman
• Southland: McNeese
• SWAC: March 14 at 7:30 p.m. ET
• Summit League: North Dakota State
• Sun Belt: Troy
• WAC: March 15 at Noon ET
• West Coast: Gonzaga

NCAA Tournament locks

• Big Ten (8): Michigan, Illinois, Michigan State, Purdue, Nebraska, Wisconsin, UCLA and Iowa
• Big 12 (6): Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech and BYU
• ACC (6): Duke, Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville, Miami and Clemson
• SEC (7): Florida, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Arkansas, Kentucky and Georgia
• Big East (3): UConn, St. John's and Villanova
• Other (4): Gonzaga, Saint Louis, Saint Mary's and Santa Clara

Using Bart Torvik's T-Ranketology as a statistical database, the Big Ten leads the way with eight teams as "locks" for the upcoming NCAA Tournament. 35 teams have a "100%" chance of being included in the 68-team bracket per Bart Torvik's T-Ranketology.

It's also time to start talking about the West Coast Conference being a three-bid league after Santa Clara knocked off Saint Mary's in the conference tournament semifinals. Perhaps this is a high sell on the Broncos, but at 25-8 overall and a NET ranking of 40, they should be in the dance.

NCAA Tournament likely ins

• ACC (1): North Carolina State
• Big Ten: Ohio State
• Big 12 (2): TCU and UCF
• Big East: N/A
• SEC (1): Texas A&M
• Other (2): Miami (Ohio) and Utah State

Ohio State is close to being a "lock" for the NCAA Tournament, but remains in the "likely in" category for now. The wins that stand out on the Buckeyes' resume for the selection committee are their wins over Wisconsin (then-No. 24 team in the country, No. 27 in NET ranking) and Purdue (then-No. 8 team in the country, No. 10 in NET ranking).

Miami (Ohio) dropped down to this category following its loss to UMass in the quarterfinals of the MAC tournament. The Redhawks metrics suggest that they should be a lock for the NCAA Tournament, in addition to the fact that they went undefeated in the regular season, but it will come down to the selection committee. Could we be in for one of the more polarizing Selection Sunday snubs/conversations??

NCAA Tournament bubble teams

• ACC (1): SMU
• Big Ten (1): Indiana
• Big 12 (1): Cincinnati
• Big East (1): Seton Hall
• SEC (3): Texas, Oklahoma and Auburn
• Other (3): San Diego State, VCU and New Mexico

The bubble remains very fluid. Though they are separated by one less win, Oklahoma should top Auburn for one of the "last four in" spots as the Sooners made it one round further than the Tigers in the SEC tournament. Oklahoma has also won six of its last seven, while Auburn has lost four of its last seven, and nine of its last 12 since Jan. 31.

The Atlantic 10 is an intriguing conference for the bubble. Until it loses in Pittsburgh at PPG Paint Arena, Saint Louis is the conference's automatic bid. VCU remains firmly on the bubble after a quarterfinal win over Duquesne and could continue to solidify its spot in the NCAA Tournament with a semifinal win over St. Joseph's, but if the Rams — or Billikens — don't win the A10 or make the championship game, the conference could have three teams.