Category: Sports News

29. Ethan Hedges (58 points, 12 ballots)

Colorado’s third round pick in the 2025 draft (77th overall) out of the University of Southern California was Hedges. The 6’1” 21-year-old righty was a two-way player during his draft year but will be a third baseman as a professional. Hedges signed for $950k, about $110k below the slot value for the pick. As a prospect, Hedges boasts an elite arm (as a college pitcher, you’d hope so) and some good athleticism on defense, though there isn’t another standout tool.

Hedges was a three-year starter with USC, accumulating a combined batting line of .308/.413/.488. In 2025 he hit a very strong .346/.462/.619 with 14 HR among his 30 extra-base hits and 10/10 steals in 288 plate appearances, which equates to a 147 wRC+. In addition, he appeared in 15 games as USC’s closer, throwing 15 innings and getting 9 saves with a 2.40 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.

After signing, Hedges was assigned to High-A Spokane to begin his professional career, where he was 1.3 years younger than league average. In 20 games with Spokane down the stretch, Hedges struggled with the adjustment to pro ball, hitting .195/.303/.234 with three doubles in 89 plate appearances (just a 50 wRC+). Propping those numbers up was an 11% walk rate, which tracked with his college stats.

Here’s the video commentary on Hedges when he was drafted last year (and here he is taking grounders at the MLB Draft Combine):

MLB Pipeline ranked Hedges 159th overall in the draft (well below where he was picked) and now places him 17th in the system as a 40 FV player with a 60 arm and 55 field grades:

Hedges has a very good feel for the game, and while he doesn’t necessarily have any “wow” tools, he maximizes what he has thanks to outstanding makeup. It’s a line-drive approach from the right side of the plate, and he routinely finds the barrel, enabling him to post elite-level numbers in batting average and wOBA. He can drive the ball, and while he reached double figures in home runs this past spring, he profiles more as a guy with some extra-base doubles pop than huge over-the-fence thump in the future.

An average runner, Hedges has the chance to be a very solid defender with good instincts at the hot corner. He also has a plus arm, one that sits 93 mph with a fastball as a reliever to go along with a slider and a changeup. The hope is some more power can be teased out of him as a pro so that he can profile at third.

Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs ranked Hedges 109th in the draft class as a 40 FV player and lists him 26th in the system with a 60 arm and 60 future field tool:

Excellent third base defender with plus range, hands, actions, and arm. Quick-footed in on the grass, makes strong accurate feeds to second base, value-altering defense. All fields doubles spray. Slightly chase-prone but contact pieces of profile are closer to average. Hands load really late and there might be more in the tank on offense if Hedges makes adjustments to be better on time. His bat speed looks better than his measurable power. Below-average everyday third baseman as currently constituted, defensive ability might portend competence at other positions that would allow for a utility role.

Keith Law of the Athletic wrote this about Hedges after the draft:

USC third baseman Ethan Hedges (3) went from two homers last year for the Trojans to 14 this year, although his batted-ball data points more to average power. He doesn’t hit spin well at all, and projects as a lower-OBP guy with maybe 15-18 homers at his peak. He also threw 15 innings in relief this year, topping out at 95 with a high-effort delivery, so he clearly has the arm to play anywhere on the field.

Hedges should be able to handle the hot corner defensively, but it’s his offensive projection that’s more of a question for scouts. The draft pedigree and prospect profile were enough for me to rank Hedges 28th on my ballot as a 35+ FV player. Hedges will likely start 2026 back with Spokane where he will be at league average age and with an off-season as a professional under his belt.

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Over the weekend, Ken Rosenthal dropped a little nugget on Royals fans about their outlook for the remainder of the offseason:

The Kansas City Royals are increasingly unlikely to land either of the two hitters they pursued in trades: the St. Louis Cardinals’ Brendan Donovan and Boston Red Sox’s Jarren Duran.

Barring further moves, the Royals expect to rely heavily on offseason acquisitions Isaac Collins and Lane Thomas in their outfield, as well as rookie Jac Caglianone and holdover Kyle Isbel.

Let’s break down that last sentence a little bit more, though. Another way of saying that would be, “Unless something changes, it will remain the same.” This is a tautology, a logical statement that cannot be negated. If you try to negate his statement, you get, “Unless things remain the same, they will change.” It’s utterly useless. It’s also, simply, incorrect.

The baseball offseason is a game of dominoes. Each move made reduces opportunities and options. This causes teams and players to change the calculus constantly.

Last week, the Red Sox signed their first free agent of the offseason, Ranger Suárez. This has massive repercussions for the Royals. First of all, it made the Red Sox’s desire for Cole Ragans or Kris Bubic fall to basically nil. This made the chances that the Royals could acquire Jarren Duran similarly low.

Or, for a less Royals-oriented move but one which highlights this phenomenon even better, Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker signed deals last week and suddenly Bo Bichette, who had found himself so lacking in team attention that he started leaking news about his willingness to change positions, got a huge short-term deal from the Mets who saw their options evaporating in front of their eyes.

But of course, that deal has implications for the Royals, too. Some of us were hoping Bichette’s value would fall far enough for the Royals to sneak in and swipe him. That’s not happening now. But with so many second basemen in the fold, the Mets probably need to trade away one or both of Brett Baty and Mark Vientos. Either could become a Royals target – I prefer Baty – or their availability could water down Donovan’s market to the point where he falls back into range for the Royals.

Whenever Framber Valdez signs, Kris Bubic should become a lot more appealing to the teams who missed out on Valdez and Suárez. Maybe Donovan and Duran are still off the table, but someone else could become available. Or a three-team deal that had seemed impossible could suddenly manifest for a team that wants Bubic but only wants to trade prospects that the Royals aren’t willing to wait for.

With all that in mind, here are several moves I think the Royals could make and what they’re waiting to happen before they make them.

Kris Bubic gets traded for Brett Baty

• Framber Valdez has to sign somewhere other than with the Mets
• Cody Bellinger has to sign with the Mets (this doesn’t have to happen, but it makes it easier)
• Bubic may need to pitch in Spring Training to show he’s healthy

Rumor has it that the Mets are considering playing Baty in left field, but that doesn’t really make a ton of sense when they have top prospect Carson Benge about ready to debut, and would make even less sense if they get Bellinger, too. We already discussed this deal a bit above and a few months ago when I wrote my first trade proposal. I don’t know if the Royals can get Kodai Senga, too, but they probably don’t want to have to give up Blake Mitchell. Five years of Baty for one year of Bubic would be a pretty big overpay, so I’d expect the Royals to have to kick in another piece or two to finish the deal, but if the Mets are as desperate as people seem to think they must have been to do the Bichette deal, maybe they’d go straight up.

Bailey Falter gets traded

• Spring Training has to start, and teams need to develop holes in their rotations due to injury

I don’t know how much of a return Falter will bring, probably not much, but the Royals could get out from under the $3.6 million they owe him by dealing him and as a reasonably competent starting pitcher – no matter how he looked for KC after the deadline last year – there should be multiple teams willing to give up a real prospect to patch a hole in their rotation. Not a top one, but one who has some kind of real value.

Adam Frazier gets signed

• Spring Training needs to start, and competitive teams need to be comfortable with their starting 2B/Corner Outfielders

Many have expressed shock that Frazier hasn’t already returned to KC. The most likely reason for this is that the Royals can’t guarantee him playing time. It makes all the sense in the world for him to wait until a couple of weeks into Spring Training to see if anyone finds themselves in need of his services that will guarantee him more money or more playing time than what the Royals have offered. Once it becomes clear that no one really wants him, he’ll come back to KC for whatever deal they’ve left on the table for him.

John Schreiber gets traded

• Nothing needs to happen, but there’s no rush either.

You may recall that the Royals first acquired John Schreiber in the middle part of Spring Training two years ago. He’s a talented enough relief pitcher to have value, but not one that has teams clamoring to add him immediately. Much like the Royals in 2024, someone will call KC a couple of weeks into Spring Training wanting to boost the front end of their bullpen just a smidge, and the Royals will be able to offload his $3.715 million contract.

The Royals gave up David Sandlin for him; Sandlin was a low-level prospect with some projectability who looked awful last year, but saw the Red Sox add him to their 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule-5 draft all the same. The Royals could likely get a similar style of prospect in return for him now, though hopefully they’ll scout them a bit better.

Over on the Royals Rundown podcast, Jacob and I have been ranking the most interesting players in the Royals’ system at each position. One thing has become clear as we have ranked the entire infield and begun to prepare to do the outfield next: The Royals desperately lack upper-level talent of any kind. Trading Schreiber and Falter could help them fill in some of those gaps while also freeing up payroll to add another left-handed reliever or some other piece to help them find their way to their second-ever Central Division title.

The Texas Rangers and free agent reliever Jakob Junis have agreed to terms on a one year, $4 million deal with a mutual option, per reports.

Junis, 33, is a righthander who originally came up with the Kansas City Royals as a starting pitcher in 2017. After a bad 2020 campaign, he moved between the rotation and the bullpen with the Royals and then San Francisco from 2021-23. He split the 2024 season between the Brewers and the Reds, getting sent to Cincinnati at the deadline in the Frankie Montas deal.

Junis signed a one year deal last winter with the Cleveland Guardians and worked exclusively out of the pen, putting up a 2.97 ERA, 3.45 FIP and 4.04 xERA. He throws four pitches — unusual for a reliever, but not unexpected given how much of his career was spent as a starter — with his slider being his best pitch, featuring a lot of horizontal break. He had a lot of success with his changeup in 2025, but both his sinker and fastball were hammered.

Junis doesn’t throw hard and doesn’t strike a lot of batters out. He does, however, throw strikes, and in 2025, anyway, did a good job avoiding hard contact.

The Rangers’ 40 man roster is currently full, and so a move will have to be made to clear a roster spot once the Junis deal is official. Dom Hamel, Zak Kent, and Michael Otanez are guys who were acquired on waivers earlier this winter, and would seem to be the guys most likely on the bubble.

After making a couple trades in early December, the Nationals have been pretty quiet. There have been some smaller signings and a couple waiver claims, but no big moves. That has led some to wonder whether the Nats are done with their major moves. However, Paul Toboni indicated that there will be more activity coming.

In a radio interview, Toboni said the team is not set for Spring Training yet. That is music to the ears of Nationals fans. Even for a team with low expectations, there are some glaring holes on the roster. Most notably, first base and the bullpen are very unsettled. The Nats could also use more rotation help, especially if MacKenzie Gore gets traded.

It is reassuring to hear that Toboni is not done. If there are more moves to make, what would some realistic targets be though? Well, one guy that has made a ton of sense all offseason is Rhys Hoskins. The Nats desperately need right handed power, and Hoskins provides that. He has five 25-homer seasons in his career and is also a very patient hitter.

Hoskins only played 90 games last year, but he hit 12 homers and posted a solid .748 OPS. The Nats will be able to sign him to a fairly cheap one-year deal as well. He checks a lot of boxes with his power, leadership and ability to get on base. There are other older options like Paul Goldschmidt and Carlos Santana, but I think Hoskins has more in the tank.

Another position the Nats could explore is the relief market. All of the top guys are off the board now, but there are some interesting names out there. Seranthony Dominguez, Jalen Beeks and Michael Kopech are three options that intrigue me. Dominguez would be the most expensive, but he has closer stuff and could be a strong trade chip at the deadline. 

While the Nats have bodies in the rotation, they could use some more reliability. Most of the mid-tier free agent starters are still available. A reunion with Max Scherzer would warm my heart, but he is injury prone at this point in his career. If the Nats wanted to spend more money while not breaking the bank, guys like Zack Littell or Lucas Giolito would make sense. 

Interestingly, Toboni also said that the Nats continue to have trade conversations with other teams. This shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, but it is nice that he is working the phones. MacKenzie Gore is the most obvious trade candidate, but I wonder if there could be any last minute surprises.

We did not expect the Jose A. Ferrer or Jake Bennett trades when they happened. Could Toboni have one more trick up his sleeve? At this point, I would be very surprised if CJ Abrams was traded. There was some buzz around his name earlier this offseason, but that has really died down. Jacob Young or Luis Garcia Jr. are guys I would not be totally stunned to see traded.

I am less confident that a MacKenzie Gore trade happens than I was earlier this offseason. However, it is clearly still on the table. A lot of pitching needy teams have made their big moves already, but there are still some suitors for Gore. The Giants, the A’s and the Mets are three teams that come to mind. All of them have solid farm systems and need frontline pitching.

Toboni seems content with the idea of holding on to Gore if the right offer does not come. Personally, I would have a bit more urgency to move him, but I understand where he is coming from. If Gore makes some adjustments and has a big first half, his value could be even higher. However, if he gets hurt or struggles, his value could really crater. 

Given the prices for starters this offseason, I would cash in, but I do not know the offers Toboni is getting. I would assume there have been competitive packages, but none that have blown Toboni away. The new front office has my trust, but a Gore trade would be my preference.

Unless the Nats trade Gore, I don’t think any crazy moves are coming. However, there will be more bodies coming through the door. Rhys Hoskins just makes so much sense to me. Maybe I am just talking myself into it, but I think that is a move that will happen. I also think that the Nats will add a pitcher or two into the fold.

There will also be more minor league free agent deals. Yesterday, they picked up Trevor Gott. With how much organizational depth they lost this offseason, we are likely to see more moves like that. We could also see another waiver claim or two. One thing is clear though, the Washington Nationals are not done yet.

Former San Diego Padres manager Mike Shildt was quoted at length in a story by Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post. Shildt tries to articulate why he walked away from his managerial job in San Diego and why it seemed that he so quickly transitioned into his new role in the Baltimore Orioles organization. Bob Melvin, who held the manager position with the Padres prior to Shildt, talked about how he looked across the field and longed to be in the dugout with the San Francisco Giants and it seems that Shildt was also looking for more as early as the middle of the 2025 season.

Padres News:

• Randy Vasquez has increased his numbers in each of his first two seasons with the San Diego Padres. He has been used more as a sixth man in the rotation during that time, but free agency and injuries have resulted in Vasquez getting a chance to play a significant role in the Padres’ rotation in 2026. He needs to show manager Craig Stammen and pitching coach Ruben Niebla that he is ready to take earn the spot and handle the challenge that comes from the pressure of being a starter in MLB.

Baseball News:

• Ha-Seong Kim, who signed a one-year, $20 million deal to play shortstop for the Atlanta Braves, will miss four to five months after undergoing surgery to repair a torn tendon in his hand. According to reports, Kim suffered the injury after falling on ice.
• Former starter turned reliever Jakob Junis signed a one-year, $4 million deal with the Texas Rangers that has a mutual option for 2027.
• The Boston Red Sox missed on free agent catchers J.T. Realmuto and Victor Caratini, but are reportedly still looking for ways to improve the catching position in Boston.
• Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran and St. Louis Cardinals second baseman Brendan Donovan have each been rumored in various trades throughout the offseason. The Kansas City Royals are apparently no longer pursuing either player and a move for either one is considered “increasingly unlikely.”
• The Cardinals have spent much of the offseason trading away pieces of their team but according to president of baseball operation Chaim Bloom, the team could add a right-handed outfielder. Seems odd considering St. Louis traded away Willson Contreras and Nolan Arenado who were both right-handed hitters.

A lot of emotions came down the pike when it was reported that Kyle Tucker agreed to what is being touted as a four year, 240 million dollars contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Much of the emotional response could be explained through sticker shock. I don’t think anyone dreamed that Tucker was a 60 million AAV player. I’m sure the Toronto Blue Jays felt they were well within range when they reportedly offered him ten years and 350 million dollars.

So, that is certainly part of our collective emotional response. The second part of that response comes from the fact that it is the Dodgers. I have tried really hard in my life not to hate anyone and for the most part I have succeeded, but sports hate is definitely a thing and the Dodgers are high on that list. It’s not only about success. It is about the whining. However, that’s a different topic for a different day. We could get into the whys and what fors at that time, but I think most of Astros nation is on the same page.

In my childhood, it was the New York Yankees existing as the evil empire. The irony is that they weren’t successful until I was in my twenties. Still, there is the appearance of inevitably. That is what stings days after the news. I can accept a man getting his pay day. Tucker and his agent structured this deal as brilliantly as possible with much of it coming upfront in the form of a signing bonus. So, when labor strife hits following the season, he will have pocketed a good portion of that contract. So, the anger doesn’t sit on Tucker. It sits on the Dodgers and what the league is allowing them to do.

Spotrac.com projects that the Dodgers 2026 payroll will equal 429.9 million dollars in average annual value. The New York Mets are second with 305 million. The Astros are still existing under the competitive balance tax. Six teams are currently above it. It should be noted that three of those six teams are in the AL East. Seven teams are currently below 100 million dollars at the moment. We have not seen this kind of financial disparity for some time.

It would be wrong to say we have never seen it. The Yankees dominated the sport between 1920 and 1964. People often forget the other half of that equation. The Philadelphia Phillies averaged 100 losses a season between 1920 and 1940. Imagine losing 100 games every year for 20 years. What happens to those fanbases? We aren’t quite there, but we are getting closer. The Colorado Rockies have lost 100 or more games three seasons in a row and have averaged 100 losses over the last five. They are the most extreme examples, but everyone can point to teams like the Pirates, Athletics, Nationals, Marlins, and Royals as cities that go long periods of time between competitive teams.

The core of the problem

This is usually where fans start chanting for a salary cap. The problem isn’t that simple. When you look at the salary structures in the NBA and NFL you see that a core part of the process is that both the union and owners know what is in the pot. Negotiating is easier from that point. Owners and players haggle over what percentage the players will get from the pie. In both leagues that tends to cover between 50 and 55 percent of revenues. Most of the negotiations come down to exactly how those percentages will be dolled out.

The core of the problem in MLB is that the owners have never opened their books. We don’t know exactly what the revenues are. We are forced to guess based on fragments of information we get from different sources. If we don’t know then the players also don’t know. That lack of trust clouds any and all negotiations. It prevents the players from agreeing to anything that will potentially restrain spending.

The sum total of salaries according to Spotrac is around 5.3 billion dollars. One can easily guess it will push to around 5.5 billion once Spring Training begins. So, the core of the issue is how players and owners can equitably split that pie. If you limit the upper end then you must do something about the lower end. That’s easier said than done.

Raise the floor

Unfortunately, without knowing total revenues we are left guessing. Even if we agreed that the players deserve 50 percent of revenues we would be left wondering 50 percent of what exactly. However, it seems reasonable to ask the players to keep their overall salary level or slightly increase it in lieu of rolling it back. The problem isn’t the level of player salaries, but how they are being distributed. It is unsustainable for one team to spend 400 million while other teams are spending under 100.

So, the goal is not to limit overall salaries, but to bring the bottom and the top closer together. That would require a salary floor. The question is how to get there. It is not a simple magic wand of saying you have to spend 150 million or 200 million dollars. There is a question of how to get teams the revenue to spend that kind of money. There is also the question of other expenditures teams make. The Rockies famously do not spend money on technology for scouting purposes. Some teams invest more money in international scouting than others. A true cap and floor would have to include total baseball related expenditures.

We are probably looking at a sliding structure similar to what we currently see with the competitive balance tax. Penalties escalate with each season teams exceed the tax. The same could be applied at the bottom. For instance, the St. Louis Cardinals have fallen below the 100 million mark because they have shed a ton of payroll this offseason. That’s different than teams like the Pirates who seemingly live there. Those penalties should reflect that.

Tying up loose ends

That battle will be the headliner for the coming negotiation, but there are other issues as well. The NBA restricts individual salaries. The NFL doesn’t. Is 60 million AAV too much for a player? Heck, Shohei Ohtani is getting 70 million. Naturally, some of their salaries are deferred which is another major concern. We cannot continue where the Dodgers get to skate by some of their tax liabilities by kicking the can down the road. If they want to defer payment to players that is between them and the player, but they should be on the hook for the whole value of the contract.

The other issue will likely involve service time. This is an area where the owners can offer significant change to get concessions from the players. In the NFL and NBA, players get to free agency faster. It is four or five years in the NFL. It is four in the NBA. Moving the service time clock up in baseball would definitely suit the players. A part of the issue is that baseball players have a minor league portion of their careers. Service time could be altered to include that time. That would keep teams from stashing players in the minors to delay their service clock. Instead of making it a hard and fast four seasons you could make it seven total from the date of the draft or signing. Therefore, teams might be more incentivized to promote players when they are ready.

These are all just ideas that are banging around our heads. I am open to any suggestions as to how this situation can change. What isn’t negotiable is business as usual. Whether a Dodgers World Series is actually inevitable is certainly debatable. It feels inevitable and that is all we need to know. If it feels inevitable then fan interest dwindles. If fan interest dwindles then revenues dwindle. That’s obviously bad for everyone involved.