One of the top needs for the Mets this winter is to acquire a frontline type of starter. I look at that as getting a No. 1 or No. 2 type of arm that could pair with Nolan McLean atop the rotation.
I know there is an infatuation with the concept of the Mets needing an ace. That would be nice, and trading for Tarik Skubal would be getting an ace. Outside of that? I am not sure there is going to be another true ace available. I believe that term is thrown around too loosely on some pitchers, but that is a conversation for another day.
With that said, the Mets' philosophy cannot be "ace or bust." Could they pursue a free agent like Ranger Suarez, Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease or Michael King? Sure, and most of those would apply as options to pitch near the front of a rotation.
Among the many intriguing possibilities in the trade market, one of the standouts is Marlins right-hander Sandy Alcantara.
Here are the pros and cons of trading for him…
PROS
In 2022, Alcantara won the National League Cy Young award after posting a 2.28 ERA in 228.2 innings and throwing six complete games, which is unheard of in this era. He clearly looked like he was on the shortlist to be considered the best pitcher in the sport.
After undergoing Tommy John surgery in October of 2023, the now 30-year-old Alcantara returned in 2025 and continued to improve as the year went on. From July 18 through the end of the season, he posted a 3.33 ERA in 13 starts across 83.2 innings with 71 strikeouts. In seven of those 13 starts, Alcantara pitched 7.0 innings. In that span, opposing batters hit only .217 against him.
The starting pitchers’ inability to pitch deep into games was one of the downfalls of the 2025 Mets. Alcantara would be a boost to that.
As would be expected, Alcantara’s control and command steadily improved as he readjusted to being back on a normal rotational turn. He slashed his walk rate from nine percent in the first half to six percent in the second half, which would be just a touch higher than his Cy Young season.
Alcantara’s strikeout rate also rose from 17.3 percent to 21.3 percent in that stretch, which isn’t an elite number, but it is closer to average. He has always been a ground ball merchant, and his ground ball rate of 48.1 percent was not far off from 2022.
From a stuff standpoint, his average fastball velocity of 97.8 mph in the second half of 2025 is exactly the same as his average fastball velocity in 2022. By all accounts, he had a perfectly normal, expected return from Tommy John, where things got gradually better as his first season back wore on.
From a contractual standpoint, he is a tremendous fit. Unlike Skubal, for example, who would be a free agent at the end of the 2026 season, Alcantara would be under team control through 2027. He is owed $17 million in 2026 and there is a club option for 2027 at $21 million. A two-year $38 million dollar deal for a pitcher with this type of potential would look nice on a payroll sheet that includes some hefty, long-term contracts.
CONS
Yes, Alcantara won the Cy Young in 2022. But in 2023, he was more or less an average pitcher -- with a 4.14 ERA accompanied by a 4.03 FIP in 28 starts before his season ended in the beginning of September, leading into his Tommy John surgery.
When he returned from Tommy John in 2025, from Opening Day through July 9, Alcantara posted an ERA of 7.22. That stretch did come with a 4.22 FIP, which implies some bad luck.
It has been a tale of two almost equal, but opposite, stretches of time for Alcantara. From 2022 to 2025, he had an excellent year and a half stretch (2022+2025 second half) and a well below average or worse year and a half stretch (2023+2025 first half).
The question is, which version of Alcantara would the Mets be buying?
While the fastball velocity is there, Alcantara has never generated swings and misses at a rate more than average. In 2025, his chase percentage of 29 percent was in the 57th percentile. Previously, he carried elite numbers in chase percentage. In 2023, he was in the 97th percentile and in 2022, the 94th percentile. That chase number will have to rise to sustain success, given his profile of not missing a ton of bats.
That team-friendly contract also means the Marlins will have the right to have a very high asking price. Dealing Alcantara was an option for them at the 2025 trade deadline, but the general asking price for him was described to me as "massive."
After a great second half, what would be the Marlins' motivation to lower the asking price? Is there an in-division tax?
This likely means having to trade two of the Mets' top five prospects and possibly another piece or two on the back end.
VERDICT
There is a very real chance the Tigers hang onto Skubal, who should be the Mets' top priority, and make a push for a World Series in 2026. They can decide to deal with the future in the future.
Either way, the Mets cannot come up empty handed in the rotation this winter.
Could they look at a different arm in the trade market? Absolutely. There will be at least a few real options out there. Do the other options possess the same potential that Alcantara does? That is debatable, but I do not believe so.
If the asking price is one of Jett Williams or Carson Benge plus someone like Brandon Sproat, is that worth doing?
I would lean against making the blockbuster for Alcantara. While the upside is there, the downside is a lot of risk to be willing to part with multiple high-end prospects.