BRONX, NY - APRIL 19: Kansas City Royals Manager Matt Quatraro (33) takes the ball from Kansas City Royals Pitcher Cole Ragans (55) as he makes a pitching change during the fifth inning of a Major League Baseball game between the Kansas City Royals and the New York Yankees on April 19, 2026, at Yankee Stadium in The Bronx, NY. (Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
After a disappointing 2025, everyone in the Kansas City Royals organization–from the coaches to the players to the front office–were adamant that this year’s goal was making the playoffs again. Unfortunately for everyone involved, the season has been a complete and total disaster. We’re 22 games in, and the Royals stand at 7-15, tied for the worst record in Major League Baseball.
The good news is that there are 140 games left in the baseball season. That’s a lot of baseball! Even after playing so poorly so for long to begin the year, the Royals are only five games out from the third Wild Card spot. That’s a plenty workable gap in July, let alone May.
The bad news is that the Royals have probably functionally played themselves out of a playoff spot, even if they’re mathematically in the running.
Let’s start with some simple math here. Over the last five years, the the third Wild Card team (or what would have been the third Wild Card team in 2021) averaged 86.5 wins. Yes, you could get lucky and sneak in with 83 wins, but you could get unlucky and fail to get in with 90. So a win target of 87 is reasonable.
Team
Year
Wins
Blue Jays
2021
91
Blue Jays
2023
89
Mets
2024
89
Phillies
2022
87
Tigers
2025
87
Rays
2022
86
Tigers
2024
86
Diamondbacks
2023
84
Reds
2025
83
Reds
2021
83
MEDIAN
86.5
Here, you can see why the poor start has such a big impact. To get to 87 wins now, the Royals must go 80-60 the rest of the year. That’s a winning percentage of .571, or a 93-win pace.
This is…a tall order. To put it into perspective, the Royals have won 93 games over a full season once in 46 years–that was 2015, when Kansas City won the World Series. The Royals essentially have to play nearly as good as the 2015 team did for the rest of the season. Considering that this team is significantly less talented than that 2015 squad, we have a pretty big problem.
How much less talented these Royals are than a real 90-something win team, a mark that some around the league predicted would happen? That’s the real question. The Royals have made it a nearly yearly tradition to suffer through extended early-season losing streaks. And as longtime Royals writer Rany Jazayerli pointed out, the only times the Royals avoided doing so was when the team made the playoffs (or, in other words, was actually a good team).
For the 20th time in the last 23 years, the Royals have lost 6 in a row in the first 60 games of the season. (And in 17 of the 20 years it happened by Game 35.)
The only three seasons it did *not* happen (2014, 2015, 2024) are the only three seasons they made the playoffs. https://t.co/qaV54cL3sR
The crux of the matter is that good teams don’t start so poorly because they have enough talent to stave off big losing streaks. While I think the Royals are clearly better and more talented than their first few weeks of baseball has shown, I also think it’s clear that the Royals just aren’t a playoff team. They have the same excellent starting pitching and same poor offense as last year, when they went 81-81. Add in what is literally the worst bullpen in the big leagues, though, and this year’s squad is starting to look worse than last year’s squad.
Again, I wouldn’t necessarily be surprised if the Royals fought their way back into standings relevancy. It’s just that playoff teams tend not to what the Royals have been doing over this long of a stretch of time. And when you look at the math, well, it just looks grim–just like the experience of watching Royals baseball this year.
There were no guarantees based on sequencing, but the Mets drew an awfully short stick for extra innings. You know, just how things go when your team is tailspinning. When Pete Crow-Armstrong struck out to end the ninth, it meant he’d be the placed runner to start the 10th. Once Caleb Thielbar escaped the top of the inning, I had a strong feeling the Cubs would win. PCA’s speed is a real weapon in that spot. The wild pitch that sent him to third would advance most baserunners. But the medium depth fly ball wouldn’t score just anyone. Very few guys in baseball would have scored that easily.
I’m going to be surprised if this Mets team goes down like the Hindenburg. I wouldn’t write any obituaries for them just yet. But everything is going wrong for them right now. Even when they got good a start Saturday and a good opener/bulk inning performance, they couldn’t turn either into a win. They got a little pitching over the weekend, but they just didn’t get any hitting. That reminded me of where the Cubs were regularly during this year’s opening week. This is why we cherish those wins that we do get when things aren’t going right.
Even now, this Cub team has to feel fortunate to be where it is sitting. With Cade Horton gone, Matthew Boyd largely non-existent, and the struggles from key offensive players, this isn’t yet a formidable Cub team. This team isn’t going to be anywhere near 90 wins with this little production from Michael Busch, Alex Bregman, Seiya Suzuki and PCA. One assumes that Nico Hoerner isn’t going to drive in 160 runs or that Ian Happ is going to hit 40 homers. Moisés Ballesteros is probably not going to have an OPS in the vicinity of 1.000. We can hope that as the hot starters cool off that the cool starters will roll in.
Until that happens, enjoy every win this team is able to stack. With this win, they are on a 92.6 win pace. It definitely gets harder from here. But it starts with a Phillies team that has had some recent struggles of its own, including getting manhandled Tuesday and Wednesday by the Cubs to start this winning streak.
It’s always fun to recap a game like this. In a 2-1 extra-inning victory, every contribution is a key contribution. Behind every key I note and all of the heroes are even more pieces that mattered. Any one contribution falling away probably loses a game.
Three Positives:
Ian Happ reached base three times (the Cubs reached only 11). One of those led to the tying run.
Javier Assad faced 20 batters over 5.2 innings and allowed only three hits, no walks and one run.
PCA had a triple and was hit by a pitch. He scored the winning run with his legs even after they’d gotten him in trouble twice earlier in the game.
Hat tip to the no-name brigade out of the Cub pen. Four Cub relievers threw 4.1 scoreless innings, allowing three hits and no walks.
Game 21, April 19: Cubs 2, Mets 1 (12-9)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
Superhero: Michael Conforto (.491). 1-1, 2B, RBI
Hero: Ian Happ (.178). 2-3, BB
Sidekick: Matt Shaw (.117). 1-1.
THREE GOATS:
Billy Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.313). 0-4
Goat: Dansby Swanson (-.272). 0-4
Kid: Carson Kelly (-.206). 0-4
WPA Play of the Game: Michael Conforto’s one-out double in the ninth scored the tying run from first. (.491)
*Mets Play of the Game: MJ Melendez led off the fifth inning with a solo homer. (.144)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 20 Winner: Carson Kelly received 139 of 171 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 3/Bottom 3)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
Nico Hoerner +12.5
Carson Kelly/Michael Conforto +6
Edward Cabrera/Daniel Palencia +5
Phil Maton -6
Matt Shaw -8
Pete Crow-Armstrong -15
Up Next: The Cubs will try to win a sixth straight game. The Phillies come to town. The Cubs just won the last two in Philly to start this streak. Over these last six games, these two teams have moved as mirror images. The Phillies were swept over the weekend and have lost five straight. They are now 8-13. So once again, the Cubs will look to take advantage of catching a team at exactly the right time.
Colin Rea (2-0, 3.63, 17.1 IP) makes his second start for the Cubs. Last Tuesday he was the “bulk guy” against the Phillies after Riley Martin threw a scoreless first as the opener. Rea allowed three runs on four hits and no walks over six in that one. It’ll be interesting to see how it goes with him seeing them twice back-to-back. Aaron Nola (1-1, 4.03, 22.1 IP) was the opposition in that game. He allowed three runs on eight hits and two walks over five innings. The Phils bullpen allowed seven runs (six earned) over only four innings in that one.
FORT MYERS, - MARCH 16: Luis Guanipa #72 of the Atlanta Braves throws the ball back to the infield during the 2024 Spring Breakout Game between the Atlanta Braves and the Boston Red Sox at JetBlue Park on Saturday, March 16, 2024 in Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Kelly Gavin/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Tough one for the Stripers as projected starter Didier Fuentes was a healthy scratch with a potential move to Atlanta in the near future. As a result Gwinnett was forced to engage in a bullpen game that had relief pitcher Tayler Scott getting the nod as the starter. He was not greeted kindly as he did allow all three runs in the first inning.
The rest of the staff: Dylan Dodd (1H 1H 0R 1BB 2K), Austin Pope (2IP 2H 1ER 1BB 1K), and James Karinchak (2IP 0H 0R 1BB 3K) all pitched admirably, allowing just one run over the games next five innings. With the Stripers leading 5-4 and with one of the strongest pitchers in the International League on the mound in Hayden Harris, disaster struck as his second pitch was hit 108 MPH for a game tying homer. He would then hit a batter, give up a double, before ultimately allowing a second runner to score via a sacrifice fly to swing the lead over to the Redbirds.
Offensively, the Stripers collected 11 hits but stranded ten runners while going 3-for-11 with runners in scoring position. Josè Azocar hit his first home run of the season in the third inning a towering 403’.
Later in the inning the Stripers would tie the game at three a piece via a Ben Gamel single, but any kind of momentum was quickly ended as the game was then delayed because of…..bees.
The Herick Hernandez experience finally hit a speed bump this season as the pitcher struggled with his pitch count and lasted just 1.1 innings – needing a crazy 65 pitches. Because of that, the Clingstones were forced to essentially have a bullpen game that lasted a full 12 innings. Jack Dashwood (2.1IP 3H 0R 0BB 4K), Jhancarlos Lara (1IP 1H 1ER 2BB 1K), LJ McDonough (1.1IP 1H 3ER 2BB 1K), Blayne Enlow (1.2IP 2H 0R 1BB 2K), Blane Abeyta (2IP 0H 0R 1BB 2K), and Shay Schanaman (2IP 1H 1R 0ER 0BB 1K) did just enough to get the win for the Clingstones. The pitching staff had a combined 9 walks while striking out 13. If traditional, strong pitch baseball is your thing, this game was not to your liking.
The Clingstones recorded 10 runs but never scored more than two in a single inning. After going down 3-0 it was Jordan Groshans and Adam Zebrowski who would each hit solo homers to reduce the deficient to a single run in the third. David McCabe would add his fifth homer of the season in the third inning with this two run blast.
The game would then be tied entering the bottom of the fifth inning after another bad outing by Jhancarlos Lara, but Cal Conley would put the Clingstones back up with his first homer of the season.
After the game being tied again after the seventh inning, the teams would exchange zeroes for the next four innings. The Shuckers would score via the ghost runner in the top of the 12th to give them the 8-7 lead, but after an RBI single by Patrick Clohisy tied the game, Adam Zebrowski would end the game with his second homer of the season, this time of the walk off variety.
Rome lost another one to the BlueClaws thanks to some faulty pitching towards the end of the game. Jeremy Reyes got the start and was inefficient but effective, walking three, pitching just 3.1 innings but only allowing one earned run to score. Reyes left the game with two runners on and one out and was relieved by David Rodriguez (1.2IP 1H 0R 3BB 2K) who struck out the first hitter he saw, but then walked the next to to put the BlueClaws up one.
Trent Buchanan (1IP 0H 0R 3BB 2K) came in for David Rodriguez and flirted with disaster by walking the bases loaded with just one out, but was able to escape the jam without surrendering a run. The luck ran out in the seventh inning when Ian Mejia (1IP 1H 4ER 3BB 2K) also walked the bases loaded before giving up a grand slam to push the lead to 5-0. The BlueClaws would add one two more runs the following ending against Justin Long (1IP 2H 2ER 1BB 1K) to bring their total to seven for the game.
That was more than enough because the Rome bats were silenced. The Emperors drew an outstanding eight walks, with Logan Braunschweig walking three times himself, but they collected just three hits – one by Isaiah Drake who stole his fifth base, and Colin Burgess who recorded two himself. They would strand nine on base, and go 2-for-10 with runners in scoring position for the final nail in the coffin.
(3-11) Fayetteville Woodpeckers 5, (9-6) Augusta GreenJackets 12
The GreenJackets exploded for 12 runs on 15 hits in another win over the Fayetteville Woodpeckers. Davis Polo picked up the start and surrendered just one hit over four innings of work. After returning from a season long injury, Davis is slowly ramping up his arm so while the velocities have been a tad inconsistent, the three pitch mix he utilizes (four-seam, slider, changeup) have all looked pretty solid.
He was relieved by Cristobal Abreu (0.0IP 1H 1ER 3BB 0K) who was unfortunately dreadful, giving up an earned run by walking three and not recording a single out – an unfortunate result as the Abreu four-seam/slider mix looked strong this off-season with his velocity peaking around 99 MPH, but it he was unable to control anything. Mathieu Curtis (1IP 0H 0R 0BB 3K) picked up the slack by striking out the side ending the threat. Finally, Kendy Richard (4IP 5H 2ER 2BB 4K) pitched the final four innings and struggled himself which is unfortunately a theme for him this season. Without the elite velocity on his fastball and his inability to locate it in the top of the zone, Kendry simply isn’t generating the whiffs he did last season that enabled that strong start. Fortunately for him, because the offense was once again outrageous, he pitched the final four innings and picked up the save.
Offensively, everyone but Dallas Macias was able to get on base. The GreenJackets scored their first run in the first inning after two wild pitches allowed the first runner to score. They would add three in the third by flexing their power with Dalton McIntyre hitting a two run homer to score Alex Lodise, then Luis Guanipa would unload on his second homer of the season to push the lead to 4-1.
This would start a stretch of five straight innings where the GreenJackets would pick up at least one run. Guanipa would create a run of his own in the fifth inning by leading off the game with a double, stealing third, and then scoring after a fielding error by the third baseman. Junior Garcia add his first homer as well, to extend the lead to 7-2.
Yamvier Carrero, an undrafted free agent that the Braves signed out of Puerto Rico made his professional debut. He would hit ninth, pick up a pair of singles, one walk, and go 3-for-3 in the stolen base department.
May 4, 2025; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Kansas City Royals left fielder Jonathan India (6) reacts to hitting a home run against the Baltimore Orioles as he crosses home plate during the fifth inning at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images | Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images
The 2026 Orioles do not appear to be particularly good. You might call them frustrating, or underwhelming, or flat-out bad. But at the moment, they’re far from the worst team in the American League. That dubious distinction falls to the Orioles’ next opponent, the Kansas City Royals.
The Royals, fresh off being swept out of Yankee Stadium, hold a 7-15 record, tied with the Mets for the worst in baseball. Kansas City has lost seven consecutive games. Of course I’m pleased when bad things happen to the Royals, a team I haven’t forgiven for beating the Orioles in the playoffs in 2014 and 2024, although it’s hard to celebrate another team’s failures too much when the O’s seem to be headed down that precarious path themselves.
The Royals’ main problem is obvious: they simply cannot hit. They’ve scored just 71 runs this season, tied with the Reds and the aforementioned Mets for the fewest in baseball. Their team batting average (.219), OBP (.298), and OPS (.640) are all among the five worst in MLB. By comparison, the Orioles — a team that’s not exactly a model of offensive consistency — have an OPS nearly 60 points higher (.699).
Four of the Royals’ regulars have sub-.600 OPSes, including two guys who were expected to be key hitters, Vinnie “Pasquatch” Pasquantino (.499), and Salvador Perez (.521). Perez, the 15-year Royals veteran and the only player remaining from the 2015 World Series champions, recently got into a tiff with manager Matt Quatraro after being given a day off for a “mental breather.” Even the great Bobby Witt Jr. has looked ordinary to begin 2026. The Royals’ best story has been the Kansas City-born-and-raised rookie Carter Jensen, who has crushed five of the team’s 17 home runs and leads the team with an .812 OPS.
The strength of the Royals has been their starting rotation, which has posted a 3.25 ERA, sixth-best in the majors. They’ll throw their two best starters at the Orioles in this series. The bullpen, on the other hand, is wretched, with a league-worst 6.52 ERA. Closer Carlos Estévez made just one appearance, coughing up six runs in just a third of an inning, before landing on the injured list. His replacement, Lucas Erceg, has five saves but a 6.14 ERA. The Royals’ middle-relief and setup crew hasn’t been much better.
The struggling Orioles bats might continue to have trouble early in games, but if they can ratchet up the pitch counts of the Royals starters and get to the bullpen early, we could see some late-inning fireworks. Coming off a disappointing series in Cleveland, these next three games are a golden opportunity for the Orioles to get themselves back on the right track.
Game 1: Monday, 7:40 PM, MASN, FS1 (out-of-market)
Every time Bradish takes the mound, I expect it to be the day when he’ll look like the Kyle Bradish of old. And it keeps not happening. He’s four outings into the season and has yet to deliver a quality start, though he did manage to work a season-high six innings in his most recent one. Bradish is giving up way too many hits (10.1 H/9) and walks (4.6 BB/9) and just doesn’t have the sharpness to his stuff that we’re used to. If there’s ever a lineup for him to finally dominate, it’s this one.
Seth Lugo, after a bit of a down year last season, has returned to his 2024 All-Star form for the Royals at age 36. He’s given up only four earned runs in his four starts combined, and is averaging less than a baserunner per inning. He hasn’t allowed a home run, either. Lugo threw a quality start against the Orioles last year, but most of the current squad has never faced him. Only four active O’s have any career at-bats against Lugo, and none more than seven PAs.
Much like with Bradish, I keep expecting each Shane Baz start to reveal the ace-like form that the Orioles clearly anticipated from him. Again, I am left disappointed. He’s winless and quality start-less in his first four games as a Bird and frankly seems very hittable so far (10.6 H/9). Still, he’s only just begun working with the Orioles’ pitching development folks, and the team seems to have some ideas as to how to unleash his full potential. It’d be nice if we start seeing that at some point, considering he’s got five more years in an Orioles uniform.
Bubic, a Royals first-round pick in 2018, has had an up-and-down, injury-marred career. The longtime starter, after pitching exclusively in relief in 2024, moved back to the rotation last season with fantastic results, posting a 2.55 ERA in 20 starts and making the AL All-Star team. He’s been solid enough to begin 2026, and since he’s a lefty, you can bet the Orioles will use some galaxy-brain lineup that has Johnathan Rodríguez batting cleanup and Blaze Alexander in center field and other such nonsense. Last year, Bubic was untouchable against the Orioles, pitching 11.2 innings without allowing an earned run in his two starts against them.
Game 3: Wednesday, 2:10 PM, MASN
RHP Chris Bassitt (0-2, 6.19) vs. RHP Michael Wacha (2-0, 1.00)
Every time Chris Bassitt starts, I keep expecting…ah, forget it. I don’t really expect much from the 37-year-old at this point. But “try to be better than Charlie Morton” doesn’t seem like a big ask. So far, Bassitt has failed at that task. He’s averaging just four innings per start, surrendering 23 hits in 16 innings. His strikeout rate, which is a career 8.3, is down to 3.9. His struggles aren’t necessarily permanent, and there’s a lot of season left, but he’s at the age where pitchers can fall off a cliff without warning. With Brandon Young and Cade Povich both pitching well at Triple-A, Bassitt’s rotation job could be in jeopardy if he doesn’t start to figure things out soon.
The Royals are saving the best for last with Wacha, who currently has the third-best ERA in the majors. He’s given up only three earned runs in 27 innings. He’s gone at least six innings in all four starts, including eight shutout frames against the White Sox on April 11. Let’s be honest: the Orioles aren’t the team that’s going to slow Wacha’s roll (especially not Gunnar Henderson, who’s 2-for-17 lifetime against him). The Royals were Wacha’s sixth team in six years when he signed with the club in 2023, but he’s certainly found a home in Kansas City.
How many games do you think the Orioles will win in this series? Let us know in the comments below.
Apr 18, 2026; New York, New York, USA; New York Knicks center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) rebounds in front of guard Josh Hart (3) during the second half of the 2026 NBA Playoffs against the Atlanta Hawks at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
Game ones of a playoff series often show us how teams want to defend, attack, and use their strengths and weaknesses. They are also just the first step in a complex and sometimes long process that is followed up with adjustments and tweaks. Regardless, the opening game tends to give us a good idea of at least the foundation on which the teams want to build. So what did we learn about these two teams after Saturday night’s game? And what might it mean going forward?
The Hawks want to attack Jalen Brunson, and the Knicks let them.
Over the last decade and change, the league has leaned more and more into attacking the opposing team’s weakest defender and finding ways to make them defend your team’s best player. Unlike the early 2000’s and the decades leading up to that, the strength of a team’s defense is now more dictated not by the level of your best defender, but by the level of your worst defender.
And last night, the Hawks, as every other team should, and often does, decided to attack Jalen Brunson as much as possible to make him expend more energy on that end of the floor, and, even more importantly, see if the Knicks’ team defense would dip to the level of their worst individual defender.
Spoiler alert, it did not. On multiple occasions, Atlanta looked to pick on the point guard, with Jalen Johnson, Nickel Alexander-Walker, CJ McCollum, and Jonathan Kuminga all taking turns at going at him. And while McCollum had a great game, New York saw some success with Brunson holding his own and forcing some tough contested shots.
Knicks defense has to remain active, Hawks have to continue to work to find openings. Okongwu screens for CJ, OG does not automatically switch. CJ screens for NAW and Brunson *does* switch. NAW looks to attack, KAT helps off Daniels in the paint. pic.twitter.com/5WmsvrBkVq
The biggest surprise, though, came not from how Brunson defended those players, or from how those players attacked him. It came from a much-welcomed change under head coach Mike Brown. During large portions of the regular season, Brown opted to send help when teams decided to isolate Brunson despite talking up the captain’s individual defense. This often leads to overreacting to switches, which in turn results in open layups and open threes.
Much to my surprise, Brown chose to trust Brunson and live with the results. The Hawks likely won’t, and shouldn’t, stop attacking Brunson. But they’ll likely need to do so more effectively and more creatively to keep this series close. If and when they do, the hope is Brown doesn’t overreact and fall back into the habit of over-helping.
Josh Hart’s rebounding may be needed more than ever.
As many expected, the Knicks had Karl-Anthony Towns cross-matched onto Dyson Daniels for much of the game. In theory, this allows Towns to play off Daniels, roam, and act as a free safety. Daniels and the Hawks were able to have some success, though, in keeping Towns out of the paint defensively and having him engage in more perimeter actions. And to be fair to Towns, he had one of his best defensive games as a Knick.
But with Towns, one of their two best rebounders on the team, spending more time outside of the paint, the Knicks needed every single one of Josh Hart’s 14 defensive rebounds. Hart may have struggled to leave a positive mark on the game in his first quarter stint, but his work on the boards cannot go understated. While how and where Towns defends may change as the series goes on, chances are the Knicks will continue leaning on Hart to be the fearless rebounder he was Saturday night.
Can the Hawks help make up for Jalen Johnson’s deficiencies?
Johnson still ended the night with 23 points, but it took him 19 shots to get there. He had some big three-pointers, and had some ferocious dunks off of some nice cuts, and actions the offense ran for him. But when the game slowed down, he struggled to consistently get good shots against the Knicks, and in particular, Hart. While Johnson has the athleticism and size advantage over Hart, his lack of a mid-range game and his good, but not great, handle clearly held him back from being an even bigger and stronger force offensively.
Defensive Film: Jalen Johnson🎥
– Going under on screens, making him a pull up shooter (29% on pull-ups threes)
It’s not unforeseeable that this ends up being his worst game of the series, but it’s clear that either he needs to find different ways to score, or the Hawks need to find more ways to get him downhill and into open spaces where he can really excel. If they can do that, they’ll not only unlock his scoring, but also his passing, which is arguably his most important skill set as it pertains to how it impacts the Hawks’ offense.
Towns needs to be great, and he was
We’ve seen multiple iterations of Towns and his role on the offensive end this season. In the early part of the season, we saw Brown try to turn him into a Domantas Sabonis-esque player with little success. We then saw Towns play a lesser role in the offense through the middle of the regular season. Then we saw Towns really find a solid balance between attacking, not forcing things, being decisive, and utilizing his passing abilities. And last night, we saw a lot of that.
We're back to the well: KAT as a hub, 30+ feet from the basket.
While he did have a few turnovers where he got a bit overzealous or just overthrew passes after making the correct read, he was instrumental in the Knicks winning this game. Besides playing amazing defense, Towns started the game off being the focal point of an offense that saw Mikal Bridges and Brunson get easy looks off his gravity and decision-making. It was justifiably Brunson’s 19-point first-quarter outburst that got a lot of the attention, while Towns and his slow, inefficient start from the field frustrated some. But if you actually watched the game and didn’t rely simply on box scores to judge impact, Towns’ process, patience, and decision-making were every bit as important as Brunson’s.
— Basketball Performances (@NBAPerformances) April 19, 2026
Given how tightly the Hawks are playing Brunson and how nobody on the Hawks can defend Towns, he’ll likely continue to have a large role both as a passer and scorer this series. The more Towns can serve as an outlet and initiator for Brunson, the easier his job becomes.
Brunson may decide the floor of this team, but the ceiling of how good this team can be, and how far they can go, ultimately will be decided by Towns. And if he can continue to play even remotely close to the level he did yesterday, the Knicks should feel very good about their postseason run.
Depth difference
While most NBA fans look at the matchups between the starters and what they did, it can often be the bench players and the plays on the margins that really separate the great from the good. And last night, we saw some interesting takeaways from both benches.
One, while I am not someone who often reads too much into the plus-minuses of a single game, it was clear that the Knicks’ bench outplayed the Hawks’ bench. Atlanta’s bench struggled mightily with only one player, Mouhamed Gueye, having a positive plus-minus, and the other three bench players having a plus-minus no better than -5. Shoot, former number one pick, Zaccharie Risacher, may not play another second this series after the awful 120-second stint he had last night.
Meanwhile, the Knicks’ bench was all in the positive. Mitchell Robinson, as he often is, was a force to be reckoned with and was great on both ends of the floor. Deuce McBride, despite struggling with his shot in the first half, came alive in the second half and played his usual great defense. Landry Shamet couldn’t get much to go offensively, but he took the shots they needed him to continue taking, and he fought defensively. And last, but certainly not least, is Jordan Clarkson, whose game was eerily similar to the trajectory of his rollercoaster season. He started off the game shaky, but in the second half, he looked more and more like the re-invented version of him that we saw in the final weeks of the season. One who bought into ball pressure, offensive rebounding, and ball-handling.
The Knicks’ bench was actually so solid that they even put up a very commendable effort over a several-minute span to start the fourth quarter. If the Knicks’ bench can outplay the Hawks’ bench by this much and find a way to stay even close in their minutes without Brunson and Towns, this could be a very short series.
Hack a Mitch back in play?
Robinson’s free-throw shooting has been one of the only real weaknesses in his game throughout his career. And last night, as coaches have done in the past, Quinn Snyder decided to hack Robinson. This has multiple benefits besides just sending the poor free-throw shooter to the line. It also takes the Knicks and the rest of their players out of rhythm offensively, and it also can shake up the Knicks’ rotations a bit as they have to take Robinson out before they usually like to.
In a potential seven-game series, each game, every quarter, evolves into a series of chess moves between the coaches and players. Going forward, it will be interesting to see how Snyder and Brown counterplay each other when it comes to Robinson. Brown may respond to Snyder’s strategy by playing Robinson more in the early portions of quarters to get the Hawks into the penalty earlier. Regardless of how it plays out, with Robinsons being such an impactful force, it will be an interesting strategic back-and-forth to keep an eye on.
Same old story
It’s no secret that putting a big man on Hart and putting a wing on Towns is one of the most effective ways to slow down the Knicks offense. We saw throughout most of the game just how effective Brunson, Towns, and the rest of the Knicks were when the Hawks defended them in a more traditional way. When Atlanta did eventually decide to put Daniels on Towns and Okongwu on Hart, the Knicks’ offense looked significantly worse, with most possessions leading to Hart screening for Brunson.
Atlanta made a big change to close the game out and it stalled the Knick offense. Notice Dyson on KAT and OO now on Hart. Knicks start running PnR's with Hart as a result and the offense struggled. Something to watch for next game pic.twitter.com/iKnQIAvJox
I still don’t think Snyder goes to this to start games off. Nor do I think it becomes his most-used defensive scheme. I do think, though, that he goes to it more often and earlier. And when he does, it will be interesting to see what Brown and the Knicks have planned. Over the course of the season, while the Knicks never truly found a solution to beating this strategy, they seemed to be able to do just enough. That being said, it’s been almost two full seasons of teams doing this, and they’ve yet to have a consistent enough counter. If the Hawks end up winning the series, or even push it to six or seven games, it will likely be due to this strategy continuing to haunt the Knicks.
The last time I saw a bunch of dinosaurs taking that much of a pounding, Morgan Freeman was narrating an asteroid hitting Earth in the late Cretaceous.
The Cleveland Cavaliers crushed the Toronto Raptors by 13 points in their series opener this weekend, but that margin doesn’t reflect just how strong the Cavaliers look.
They took a 21-point lead into the fourth quarter, allowing Cleveland to rest some of its key contributors, like Evan Mobley.
Our Raptors vs. Cavaliers predictions are optimistic about Cleveland’s forward, and my NBA picks are taking him to clear his points prop again in Game 2.
Raptors vs Cavaliers prediction
Who will win Raptors vs Cavaliers Game 2?
Cavaliers: The Cavaliers have too many options. The guard duo of Donovan Mitchell and James Harden was especially tricky in Game 1. If the Raptors overcommit to slowing them down, bigs like Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen will feast inside. Game 2 could be closer, but there’s no easy solution for the Raps' defense in this series.
Raptors vs Cavaliers best bet: Evan Mobley Over 16.5 points (-115)
Cleveland Cavaliers big Evan Mobley just topped his 16.5-point scoring prop in Game 1, doing so through only three quarters.
With the Cavs holding a comfy 21-point cushion entering the fourth quarter, Mobley logged less than six minutes and missed his only shot attempt in that final frame. He finished with 17 points on 6-for-9 shooting through 33 minutes.
The versatile 6-foot-11 forward is a matchup nightmare for the Toronto Raptors. Toronto can put big bodies on Mobley or counter with quicker defenders, but the Raps lack Mobley's combo of size and speed.
After getting shredded by the guard duo of Donovan Mitchell and James Harden in Game 1 (shooting a collective 8-for-14 from 3-point range), expect Toronto to hedge harder on the Cavs’ screen-heavy schemes and not drop as much in an effort to limit those 3-point looks.
That will generate a ton of space for screeners like Mobley, who will also force bad switches and enjoy exploiting size mismatches when the Raptors’ guards swap off pick-and-roll action.
Game 2 has the same spread as the opener, so oddsmakers expect a more competitive effort from Toronto. That will keep Mobley on the floor for more minutes — or at least more involved in the offense.
Player projections range from 17.5 to as high as 18.3 points from Mobley in Game 2, with my number at 17.9.
Raptors vs Cavaliers same-game parlay
The Cavaliers have too many options, including a much stronger bench. Cleveland’s reserves made a massive impact in Game 1, contributing 40 points. Tonight’s tilt will be more competitive than the series opener, but the Cavs will take a 2-0 series lead north of the border.
Toronto can’t just trade threes for twos against the Cavs. The Raptors need production from the perimeter, and Brandon Ingram was very quiet in the opener. He missed his lone 3-point attempt, but closed the regular season with at least two triples in four of his final six games. Game models lean toward two 3-point makes from B.I. tonight.
Raptors vs Cavaliers SGP
Cavaliers moneyline
Evan Mobley Over 16.5 points
Brandon Ingram Over 1.5 threes
Our "from downtown" SGP: Tall Order
The Cavaliers' guards gashed the Raptors in Game 1. With Toronto overcommitting, Cleveland's big men have their time to shine. Both Jarrett Allen and Mobley are projected to top their scoring prop tonight after taking their foot off the gas in the final frame of Game 1.
The Raptors have gone Under the total in 27 of their last 40 away games for +12.70 units and a 29% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Cavaliers.
How to watch Raptors vs Cavaliers Game 2
Location
Rocket Arena, Cleveland, OH
Date
Monday, April 20, 2026
Tip-off
7:00 p.m. ET
TV
Peacock/NBCSN
Raptors vs Cavaliers latest injuries
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PITTSBURGH — The Flyers on Monday night will try to take a 2-0 lead in their best-of-seven first-round playoff series against the Penguins.
Rick Tocchet’s club has had a businesslike approach in Pittsburgh. The Flyers took Game 1 with a 3-2 decision Saturday night. They know they have plenty of more work to do against a Penguins team with all kinds of pedigree.
“Hall of Famers over there, right?” Trevor Zegras said Sunday. “We didn’t do much so far. We played a good game and won. Obviously we love winning and that’s what we’re trying to do, but far from over and far from what the main goal is here, for sure.”
Puck drop at PPG Paints Arena is scheduled for around 7 p.m. ET on NBC Sports Philadelphia. Coverage begins at 6:30 p.m. ET with Flyers Pregame Live.
Here are some updates and visuals from the last few days.
Rick Tocchet said Flyers got back to their hotel, ate, got therapy and had a mindset of get ready for Game 2. Seems like he really likes the all business kind of approach. pic.twitter.com/Yp1sxgjRDv
Rick Tocchet really liked Porter Martone’s maturity. Once again the 19-year-old got better as the game went on, stuck with it. pic.twitter.com/HLJPKCBDhB
ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 19: Mike Trout #27 of the Los Angeles Angels is out at second base in the fourth inning against the San Diego Padres at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on April 19, 2026 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Joe Scarnici/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The San Diego Padres dropped the first game in their series with the Los Angeles Angels, but they bounced backto win the next two games thanks to scoreless starts from German Marquez and Micael King. The offense was not stellar in any of the games in Los Angeles, but in the two wins, the San Diego lineup did enough to put the team over the top. The result of the back-to-back wins was the fifth consecutive series win for the Padres. San Diego will have an off day today and will open a three-game series against the Colorado Rockies in Denver on Tuesday before another day off and a trip to Mexico City to face the Arizona Diamondbacks on Saturday and Sunday. It has been a successful couple of weeks for the San Diego ballclub and the hope is that they can continue that success this week with a Colorado team that was swept in a four-game series at Petco Park to open the last homestand.
Padres News:
The San Diego offense in Los Angeles did not look like the same offense that won seven games and two series at Petco Park last week. If the Padres can find offensive consistency, it could be an exciting year in San Diego.
Mason Miller closed out the last two games against the Angels and with two more scoreless innings, he finds himself staring at Padres history, needing just one more scoreless inning to tie the record for the longest scoreless streak in the franchise’s history.
Padres fans invaded Angel Stadium for their three-game series. Watching the games and listening to the broadcasts, chants of “Holy Sheets” and cheers for successful San Diego plays were clearly heard.
Jake Cronenworth was hit in the face by a pitch on Saturday night, prompting manager Craig Stammen to remark on his toughness. Cronenworth was out of the lineup Sunday, resulting in Fernando Tatis Jr. getting another start at second base. Because of his absence, it was good to see Cronenworth made a pinch-hit appearance late in the game, even if it resulted in a strikeout.
Rosman Verdugo and Alex McCoy took the headlines for the San Diego minor league system with the Triple-A El Paso Chihuahuas being postponed due to weather conditions.
CLEVELAND, OHIO - APRIL 16: Shortstop Blaze Alexander #23 of the Baltimore Orioles throws out Austin Hedges #27 of the Cleveland Guardians at first during the fifth inning at Progressive Field on April 16, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) | Getty Images
In last week’s episode of the podcast, we could tentatively feel a bit better about the Orioles because they were in first place. They went on to defend that position with a thrilling comeback win last Monday night, providing a tantalizing look at what this team could be if enough things click into place at once. The rest of the week was not so fun, as the Orioles went on to win just one game in the three-game set with Arizona and then only one game in a four-gamer in Cleveland. That’s heading the wrong direction.
This week, after watching a couple of high-impact botch jobs that resulted from playing natural infielders in the outfield, I’m feeling frustrated about the ways in which it seems like the Orioles essentially outsmart themselves by thinking that they’re so clever that they can do obviously stupid things and make them work out. “Sure, it’ll be fine if we play Blaze Alexander in center field and Weston Wilson in left field to stack the lineup with righty bats against a lefty pitcher.” “Of course we can put some completely anonymous big minor league power guy in the cleanup spot and have that go fine.”
Typing them out, they sound absolutely ridiculous, and yet the Orioles have tossed Alexander into center field multiple times now, with it costing them both times. They have done the Johnathan Rodríguez as cleanup hitter thing multiple times too. It hasn’t worked yet. There are a number of problems that the Orioles have that they can’t do much about until either players get healthy or players with no immediate replacements start playing better. Even with this patchwork roster, though, they don’t have to post Alexander in center field. They should stop being stupid while trying to be so smart.
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How are you feeling about the way things are going so far? Answers could make it into the mailbag section of the next episode of the podcast.
It’s a quieter slate across the Majors tonight, with only 10 games on the schedule. My MLB player props analysis will highlight Yordan Alvarez, Sonny Gray, and Dylan Cease.
Yordan Alvarez is off to a wonderful start in 2026. The Houston Astros slugger leads the big leagues with 10 home runs, and he just went deep in three straight games over the weekend against the St. Louis Cardinals. Why not make it four?
While Alvarez only has one at-bat against Cleveland Guardians right-hander Slade Cecconi, the right-hander has struggled at suppressing the long ball, giving up three in only four starts. Alvarez is obviously red-hot, and five of his bombs have come off righties. Cecconi has also allowed two homers to left-handed batters.
Time: 6:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: SCHN, Guardians.TV
Sonny Gray Over 5.5 strikeouts
Sonny Gray has always been a strikeout pitcher. While he’s only racked up 11 Ks in 20 1/3 innings for the Boston Red Sox, today’s start against the Detroit Tigers profiles as an opportunity to collect his fair share of swings and misses.
The righty has held the Tigers’ lineup to a .141 average over 71 at-bats, and he’s struck out 34. The likes of Javier Baez, Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, and Gleyber Torres have not been able to touch Gray. Detroit ranks 12th in team strikeouts, and they’re striking out even more on the road.
Time: 11:10 a.m. ET
Where to watch: DSN, NESN
Dylan Cease Over 7.5 strikeouts
Dylan Cease has proven to be a massive pickup for the Toronto Blue Jays. His elite stuff has played early on, compiling a 1.74 ERA over four starts, striking out 32 in just 20 2/3 innings. Cease has cashed the over in Ks in two of his four appearances, and he even struck out eight Dodgers on April 8.
Tonight’s matchup is a clear opportunity for him to rack up the Ks.
The Jays face the Los Angeles Angels, who rank second-last in the majors with 9.70 strikeouts per game. Angels batters have 36 Ks in 86 at-bats vs. Cease. Mike Trout has six Ks in nine ABs, while Jorge Soler has 13.
Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Sportsnet 1, FDSN West
Quinn Allen's 2026 Transparency Record
Prop picks: 2-3, +0.58 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Youngster beaten 10-7 at Crucible after leading 7-3
Higgins beats Carter to set up possible O’Sullivan clash
Stan Moody blew his chance to become the first teenager to win a match at the World Snooker Championship since 2005 as he fell to a 10-7 defeat to the 2024 champion, Kyren Wilson.
The 19-year-old from Halifax began his Crucible debut in blistering fashion with two centuries and two further breaks over 80 to establish an improbable 6-3 lead at the end of a memorable morning session. Moody duly extended his lead by taking the first frame upon the evening’s resumption, only for Wilson to reel off seven frames in succession to shatter the qualifier’s hopes of emulating Ronnie O’Sullivan, the last teenager to win a Crucible match 21 years ago.
‘You are loved’: father Ben Hollands shares public message
Blues player admitted to hospital on Monday night
Carlton’s management of Elijah Hollands’ public mental health episode will come under scrutiny from WorkSafe Victoria.
Hollands, 23, was admitted to hospital on Monday night, after his concerning and erratic performance in the Blues’ game at the MCG against Collingwood last Thursday night.
It's the beginning of a new home run week, and with a cold snap hitting the league, finding the best spots for dingers and MLB player props is key today if we're going to turn a profit.
See why I like Junior Caminero in a controlled environment to cap off our home run props alongside Jordan Walker and Kyle Tucker.
These are my favorite MLB picks for Monday, April 20.
UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
Player to hit a HR
Odds
Jordan Walker
+680
Kyle Tucker
+410
Junior Caminero
+410
💲Today's HR parlay
+18198
Jordan Walker (+680)
I thought +540 was a great HR price on St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Jordan Walker last Friday. This is an insane number for a hitter with elite metrics and one of the fastest swings in all of baseball.
The cold has crept in on a small Monday slate, and getting one of this year’s best HR bats at anything better than +400 in a controlled environment is a +EV gift to start the week. Walker has also more than doubled his barrel rate this year, jumping from 11.2% to 24%.
The matchup favors him against Miami Marlins righty Max Meyer's shaky command. Per Covers projections powered by THE BAT, “Jordan Walker hits a high percentage of his fly balls to center field (40.9% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s sixth-shallowest CF fences today.”
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Marlins.TV, Cardinals.TV
Kyle Tucker (+410)
Jose Quintana has yet to pitch at Coors Field this year, but a matchup vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers in decent hitting conditions isn’t one the veteran lefty is likely looking forward to. This could get ugly, and L.A. should see plenty of innings against a Colorado Rockies bullpen that has been punching above its weight and may be without its three best arms today.
Bettors don’t usually get elite prices at Coors, but I’ll take the best HR park on the slate when narrowing down a small card. The value leans to left-handed bats, as Quintana isn’t tough on lefties, and books tend to shade those matchups.
Kyle Tucker at +410 is the target. He’s already gone deep at Coors in this series, handles lefties well, and carries the best price among the top-tier bats in the L.A. lineup. THE BAT grades him as a Top-15 hitter in baseball.
Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Rockies.TV, SportsNet LA
Junior Caminero (+410)
You can’t go wrong with Junior Caminero at +400 or better, and today’s +410 price is making the card.
It’s an indoor environment that ranks as a Top-10 park for home runs to left field, and Caminero sits in the Top 5% for pulled fly balls.
It’s a great setting for a hitter with the second-fastest swing in MLB.
Chase Burns can miss bats, but he can also struggle with command and give up the long ball with a decent fly-ball rate. The Cincinnati Reds' bullpen is also showing signs that its early success could regress. The fair price here is around +370.
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Reds.TV, Rays.TV
Jinglis' 2026 Transparency Record
HR picks: 5-33, -2.4 units
Today’s HR parlay
Jordan Walker
Bet Now +18198
Kyle Tucker
Junior Caminero
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Former player P. K. Subban skates during the 2023 NHL All-Star Skills Competition at FLA Live Arena on February 3, 2023 in Sunrise, Florida.
P.K. Subban’s pants stole the spotlight during ESPN’s coverage of Round 1 of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs on Sunday.
The former 13-year defenseman, who played for the Montreal Canadiens, Nashville Predators and New Jersey Devils, donned a pair of oversized wide leg pants and the internet had a field a day.
“You could park a Chevy Suburban in each one of PK Subban’s pant legs right now,” wrote Rob Gucci, a social media personality and podcast host, in a now-viral X post. “This is insane.”
You could park a Chevy Suburban in each one of PK Subban’s pant legs right now. This is insane. pic.twitter.com/pnORgPvqQ8
Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy added, “Totally normal pants on @PKSubban1. Find a new slant.”
In a reply tweet to Portnoy, Subban wrote: “F–king rights Dave! Wooo! u can borrow ’em anytime.”
Subban, known for his eccentric fashion style, paired the pants with a long sleeve black fitted shirt.
P.K. Subban’s pants stole the spotlight during ESPN’s coverage of Round 1 of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs on Sunday. X
While his pants were a hot topic online, Subban was posting Instagram videos of his live reaction during Sunday’s games.
The NHL analyst was a part of an ESPN doubleheader, with the Boston Bruins taking on the Buffalo Sabres and the Utah Mammoth facing the Vegas Golden Knights.
P.K. Subban arrives for the 2024 Navy Federal Credit Union Stadium Series at MetLife Stadium on February 17, 2024 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. Getty ImagesFormer player P. K. Subban skates during the 2023 NHL All-Star Skills Competition at FLA Live Arena on February 3, 2023 in Sunrise, Florida. Getty Images
The Sabres defeated the Bruins in a 4-3 thriller, while the Knights beat the Mammoth 4-2 in the best-of-7 first-round series.
There are plenty of storylines across this year’s Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Buffalo is in the postseason for the first time since 2011.
Utah Mammoth center Nick Schmaltz (8) and Vegas Golden Knights defenseman Jeremy Lauzon (5) battle for the puck during the third period in Game 1 of a first-round NHL hockey Stanley Cup playoff series Sunday, April 19, 2026, in Las Vegas. AP
Utah is making their first-ever postseason appearance after joining the NHL in 2024.
Boston are making their 16th postseason appearance in 20 years, while Vegas are making their eighth postseason appearance in the past nine seasons.
CLEVELAND, OHIO - APRIL 16: Leody Taveras #30 of the Baltimore Orioles celebrates after hitting a single during the ninth inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on April 16, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Guardians defeated the Orioles 4-2. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Orioles had a bad week. They lost two series, and went a combined 2-5 in that span. Neither win was particularly easy, the first requiring them to climb out of a 7-1 hole and the second seeing them take until the eighth inning to score at all. It’s just the latest development in what has been a challenging start to the 2026 campaign. Despite these struggles, could there still be reason for optimism with these Orioles?
Let’s start with the obvious, these Orioles were only “supposed” to good, not great, anyway. Think back to pre-season predications across the industry. Most outlets had the O’s pegged for 85 or so wins. Some more, some less. That represents a step up from 2025, certainly, but nowhere near elite contender status. If things went right for them, maybe they get t0 90 wins and snag the AL East crown. If they crater, they might not even be a .500 squad.
Well, with the season less than a month old, you would have to say their luck has been more bad than good.
Injuries have, yet again, been a problem. Before the season even started they lost Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg, their projected starting second and third basemen, respectively, to the IL. Andrew Kittredge, potentially the team’s set up man, and Keegan Akin, an important middle-inning option, joined them on the shelf later in spring. Since the regular season has begin, they’ve added starting catcher Adley Rutschman, starting right fielder Tyler O’Neill, rotation piece Zach Eflin, bench bat Ryan Moutcastle, and left-handed reliever Dietrich Enns to the infirmary report. It has been a blood bath.
As a result, new manager Craig Albernaz has had less flexibility to adjust a lineup that has failed to meet expectations early.
Samuel Basallo is still getting his feet under him and carries a meager 49 wRC+ in his first full season. He’s starting behind the plate most days anyway, because the other option is Sam Huff, a fringy backstop with limited offensive upside.
Coby Mayo isn’t having the turnaround he hoped for at the plate, though his improvement in the field has been much appreciated. His 36 wRC+ is the worst on the team, and yet he is getting in the lineup regularly because injuries have eaten away the infield depth the team once had.
The outfield is a work in progress. Taylor Ward (143 wRC+) and Leody Taveras (190 wRC+) are adjusting just fine to their new team. But finding that third reliable member has been tough. Colton Cowser (39 wRC+) and Dylan Beavers (74 wRC+) have been slow out of the gate, and both are left-handed. Blaze Alexander, a righty, is getting into the mix now, though that feels like a band-aid given his lack of experience in the role, and his bat has cooled significantly the last week or two anyway.
But you probably already know about this negative stuff. Let’s talk about why the sky is not, in fact, falling.
Start with the schedule. Many folks pointed to the Orioles “soft” start to the season a reason why they needed to come out of the gate on fire. So to have a 10-12 record is disappointing. But the reality is that those perceptions were based on 2025, not 2026. The teams the Orioles have played aren’t all that bad. Ten of their 22 games have been against teams with .500 records or better. No one else in the AL East has played more than six games against teams with winning records. Obviously, you need to beat good teams in order to be a good team yourself, but the Orioles are not losing to a bunch of cellar dwellers here.
Back to the injuries. It sounds like things are improving, ever so slightly, on that front.
Rutschman is eligible to return on Tuesday, though he may play in a rehab game or two first. He is with the team on the road trip and has been participating in all of the baseball activities. Bringing him back will allow the Orioles to improve their defense behind the plate and give their offense a boost, since he was one of their top hitters when he went out.
Holliday has restarted his rehab after being pulled off of it briefly with wrist soreness. That doesn’t mean he will be ready to play at the big league level immediately, but it is a good sign. His return likely pushes Mayo back down to Triple-A. In turn, that will allow Jeremiah Jackson, who leads the team in RBI, to move over to third base. Perhaps that is an overall downgrade defensively, but it should help the lineup.
O’Neill’s return is more ambiguous since he is dealing with a concussion, which can linger. But reports have been fairly positive, and he is eligible to get back on the field any day now. Once he is back on the roster, it should be simple enough for the Orioles to DFA one of Jonathan Rodríguez or Weston Wilson, though they may instead option Cowser or Beavers if they think it would help them long term.
The point here is that the depth should be getting back to the level the team hoped for coming into the season. Depth alone doesn’t get you wins, but it does allow Albernaz to cycle through players and play the hot hand. The players coming back have a batter chance of actually getting hot than many of the names they would be replacing.
On top of that, there is some data you could, admittedly, cherry pick, to tell you that a few key players should start to see their season’s turn around.
Starting in the lineup, we are yet to get the absolute best from Gunnar Henderson or Pete Alonso. Henderson has just a .211 BABIP despite having a hard-hit rate that sits in the 88th percentile of MLB. That should balance out at some point, yielding a higher batting average, present stolen base opportunities, and create offense for the O’s. Alonso has one of the highest average exit velocities (94.7 mph, 96th percentile) and hard hit rates (57.7%, 95th percentile) in the sport. He needs to get the ball in the air more, and his career pedigree says he will. Once that happens, with runners on in front of him, the Orioles are going to score a lot more runs.
Right now, the Orioles are tied for 19th in runs scored in MLB. That is only slightly better than where they finished (24th) in a disappointing 2025. In order for this team to compete for a playoff spot, they need to be a top 10 lineup. The talent that was accumulated this offseason feels like it should be able to accomplished that. But it needs its best players to perform to their ability, and they need to get healthier overall.
It’s a similar story in the rotation, where the Orioles need more out of their absolute best players: Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish, and Shane Baz. None of them have performed to their ability, but the top line numbers obscure some good things. Rogers, for example, has a 4.08 ERA on the season, but his xERA is just 2.46 and his FIP is 3.69. Bradish looked much better in his most recent start, and that is reflected in the peripherals. His 5.49 ERA is massive compared to his 3.06 xERA and 3.18 FIP. The difference for Baz is not as stark, but it is there. He has a 4.91 ERA but a 4.21 xERA and 3.95 FIP. It’s not unrealistic to think each of them could lower their ERAs by up to a run in the next month. That would transform the team’s outlook.
On the whole, the Orioles’ pitching staff is right about where they need to be. They are 13th in ERA (3.91), 9th in xERA (3.60), and 13th in FIP (3.98). A middle-of-the-road pack of pitchers and a high-end lineup seemed to be the O’s path to success this year. But those numbers include their bullpen playing to a rather high level. A performance, by the way, that is largely backed up by solid peripherals. The rotation, on the other hand, has underperformed and has room to grow. That’s not a bad spot to be in if you believe in the Orioles’ ability to actually tap into those underlying numbers and get them to emerge on the field.
Of course, you can point out players that might go in the other direction too. Will guys like Jackson or Taveras keep hitting like all-stars? Probably not. Will the entire bullpen continue to pitch at such a high level? Eh, don’t bet on it. But getting more out of your stars, who are positioned at intentional spots in your lineup or rotation, should more than outweigh the dip in performance from the players coming out of nowhere to give you a temporary boost.
Things are not as bad as they have felt this last week. Given everything that has happened to the Orioles so far, they simply need to keep their head above water and give time for their talent to rise to the top. It is possible it won’t ever come to fruition, but it’s really all they can do at this point.
Yordan Alvarez
Sonny Gray
Dylan Cease
Jordan Walker
Kyle Tucker 
Junior Caminero
