March Madness Cinderella predictions: VCU, Akron top NCAA Tournament upset picks

Cinderella, the floor is yours.

Last year’s NCAA Tournament belonged to the 1-seeds. This one might, too, with an excellent lineup of Duke, Arizona, Michigan and Florida atop the seeding.

Underdogs own the tournament's first week, though. Even in a quiet year for upsets, last season’s bracket saw two No. 12 seeds supply first-round upsets, plus an 11-seed and two 10-seeds.

So, who's primed to supply heroics this year? First-round triumphs by a No. 9 seed hardly qualify as upsets, so we're looking for teams seeded no better than No. 10 as our possible Cinderellas.

From the 10- through 14-seed line, here are my teams that offer top Cinderella potential:

No. 10 Santa Clara

First-round opponent: (7) Kentucky

This is Santa Clara’s first NCAA Tournament bid in 30 years. It got here with an offense that can score 80-plus points with relative ease. Two wins against Saint Mary’s proved Santa Clara’s mettle. Santa Clara coach Herb Sendek, a former Kentucky assistant under Rick Pitino, has won NCAA Tournament games with three different schools.

No. 10 Missouri

First-round opponent: (7) Miami

The Tigers received a better seed than they deserved after going 5-5 down the stretch. Along with the seed, the committee gave Missouri the gift of a de facto home game in St. Louis. Tigers guard Mark Mitchell used to be a starter at Duke, and he’s going out strong as a senior. He dropped 32 points in each of his last two games.

No. 11 South Florida

First-round opponent: (6) Louisville

USF coach Bryan Hodgson used to be an assistant for Alabama’s Nate Oats. You can see it in the way the Bulls play. Much like Alabama, USF never saw a 3-point shot it didn’t like to launch. If the Bulls get hot, they can add to their 11-game win streak. USF is 8-5 in games against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents. That’s enough to make a 6-seed sweat.

No. 11 VCU

First-round opponent: (6) North Carolina

VCU needs no introduction to the Cinderella role. Fifteen years ago, it went from First Four to Final Four. The red-hot Rams have won 16 of their last 17 games. The 3-point shot is an equalizer in games like this, and VCU shoots well from the perimeter, including 11 3s in the Atlantic-10 Tournament championship win over Dayton.

No. 12 Northern Iowa

First-round opponent: (5) St. John’s

The Missouri Valley enjoys a rich history of NCAA Tournament upsets. That includes Northern Iowa stunning No. 1 Kansas to reach the Sweet 16 in 2010. Ben Jacobson coached that team. He’s still coaching UNI. True to Jacobson’s brand, this team plays tough defense. Each of his last three teams that reached the NCAA Tournament won at least one game.

No. 12 Akron

First-round opponent: (5) Texas Tech

All of the attention on 31-win Miami (Ohio) overshadowed Akron winning the Mid-American Conference Tournament. The Zips have been playing like the MAC’s best team for the past month. An excellent shooting team, they average nearly 11 3-pointers per game. One of those sharpshooters, Tavari Johnson, averages more than 20 points.

No. 13 Hofstra

First-round opponent: (4) Alabama

Hofstra went 2-0 against ACC teams. Granted, those wins came against Pittsburgh and Syracuse, two of the ACC’s worst teams. Hofstra will need a big game from super scorer Cruz Davis, who shoots nearly 40% from 3-point range. My knock on Hofstra? Hofstra Flying Dutchmen sounds way better than Hofstra Pride. The school never should’ve rebranded.

No. 14 North Dakota State

First-round opponent: (3) Michigan State

The Bison didn’t play any top-tier competition in the regular season, but they were excellent within the Summit League. They shoot it well from 3-point range, and the lineup is filled with veterans. A dozen years ago, North Dakota State delivered an upset from the 12-seed line. An upset in this one would be more stunning, a true glass slipper moment.

Blake Toppmeyer is a columnist for the USA TODAY Network. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Most likely upsets March Madness 2026: NCAA Tournament predictions

Grizzlies vs Bulls Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s NBA Game

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The Memphis Grizzlies and Chicago Bulls clash this evening in the Windy City, with tip-off scheduled for 8 p.m. ET at the United Center. 

My Grizzlies vs. Bulls predictions expect Chicago to hand flailing and shorthanded Memphis yet another loss. 

Read more in my NBA picks for Monday, March 16. 

Grizzlies vs Bulls prediction

Grizzlies vs Bulls best bet: Bulls -6 (-110)

The 27-40 Chicago Bulls have lost two in a row, but are returning home, where they have a 16-18 record. Meanwhile, the Memphis Grizzlies — losers of seven straight — are 11-22 on the road

The Bulls have won four of the last five against Memphis, and they’ve covered tonight’s spread in all but one of those victories. The Grizz have lost by at least eight points in each of their last four defeats

Memphis is dealing with a slew of injuries, and several "active" players like Jaylen Wells, Walter Clayton Jr., and Santi Aldama are on nursing ailments despite being listed as day-to-day.

Grizzlies vs Bulls same-game parlay

Josh Giddey has cashed the Over in assists in four straight, and he’s compiled 15 dimes across his last two games alone. He’s averaging 11.8 assists in March and will pick apart the Memphis defense tonight. 

Matas Buzelis is playing at a different level over these last few games, which is exactly why his total is sitting higher. The second-year forward has hit the Over in two of his last three outings. 

He dropped 22 against the Lakers last week, and just two days prior, Buzelis erupted for a career-high 41 points vs. the Warriors.

Grizzlies vs Bulls SGP

  • Bulls -6
  • Josh Giddey Over 9.5 assists
  • Matas Buzelis Over 21.5 points

Our "from downtown" SGP: Tre Cool

Tre Jones has hit the Over in points in three straight, posting 20+ in two of those contests. 

Grizzlies vs Bulls SGP

  • Bulls -6
  • Josh Giddey Over 9.5 assists
  • Matas Buzelis Over 21.5 points
  • Tre Jones Over 15.5 points

Grizzlies vs Bulls odds

  • Spread: Grizzlies +6 (-110) | Bulls -6 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Grizzlies +195 | Bulls -240
  • Over/Under: Over 243 (-110) | Under 243 (-110)

Grizzlies vs Bulls betting trend to know

The Chicago Bulls have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games at home (+10.10 Units / 31% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Bulls.

How to watch Grizzlies vs Bulls

LocationUnited Center, Chicago, IL
DateMonday, March 16, 2026
Tip-off8:00 p.m. ET
TVFDSN SE-Memphis, CHSN

Grizzlies vs Bulls latest injuries

Not intended for use in MA.
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2026 fantasy baseball hitter targets: Are Caleb Durbin, Mickey Moniak, more being overlooked?

We're in the heart of fantasy baseball draft season, which means it's time to try to identify hitters who might be undervalued or in for breakout seasons based on last year’s overall process. While I often use my own custom leaderboards to identify hitters who I think could provide sneaky value, I'm also a firm believer in using Pitcher List's Process+ stat because it identifies all the things a hitter does under the hood to set themselves up for success.

If you want to learn a little bit more about Process+, then I highly recommend you check out Nate Schwartz’s article, which won an FSWA Award. The stat, created by Kyle Bland at Pitcher List, is essentially a hitter’s version of Stuff+. It’s “a combination of PLV’s Decision Value, Contact, and Power metrics formatted into one holistic number” that represents how good a hitter has been at making swing decisions, making contact on those swings, and making authoritative contact when he does hit the ball. That gives each hitter a Process Value grade as well as a Performance Value grade, which tries to represent how well they’ve done, independent of just the process.

Both the Decision Value and Contact Value portions of Process+ stabilize at 400 pitches seen, while the Power Value stabilizes at 800 pitches, so I downloaded a leaderboard of all hitters who saw at least 800 pitches from June 15th on (so we ignore just an early-season spike) and focused on the hitters who had an above-average Process+ score. I also looked at current ADP in order to find hitters who had a strong overall process last year and should be in for success this season, but aren't being drafted as if that were the case.

All ADP is from NFBC Online Championship (12-team) drafts from March 2nd to March 16th (49 drafts)

⚾️ Coming soon: MLB returns to NBC and Peacock in 2026! In addition to becoming the exclusive home of Sunday Night Baseball, NBC Sports will broadcast MLB Sunday Leadoff, “Opening Day” and Labor Day primetime games, the first round of the MLB Draft, the entire Wild Card round of the postseason, and much more.

Early Round Hitter Targets for Fantasy Baseball

NameTeamADPProcess+
Jackson MerrillSDP69113
Michael Harris IIATL100102
Michael BuschCHC106130
Jo AdellLAA119119
Jakob MarseeMIA137108
Taylor WardBAL150112

I'm not going to spend too much time on these players because they're all going inside the top 150 picks, so fantasy managers are already interested in them; however, I did want to point out that they could still be values where they're being drafted.

I firmly believe that Jackson Merrill (ADP: 70) had an almost lost season last year due to injuries. He was on the IL three times last season, beginning with a hamstring strain in April, then a concussion in June, and an ankle sprain in August. Not only can that disrupt your timing at the plate, but it certainly impacts him as a baserunner, limiting him to just one steal. In 2024, Merrill stole 16 bases in 131 games before a September knee injury led to him stealing no bases that month. I know projections have Merrill for seven or eight steals, but I think he's going to get to 12, if not more, and get back to hitting .270-.280, so I'm buying in

Michael Busch (ADP: 104) and Jo Adell(ADP: 117) both had their Process+ scores impacted by below-average contact grades, but that shouldn't surprise you. However, they both had good Decision Value scores, which means their overall swing decisions were good. They also had Result Value scores that were below their overall process and decision scores, which suggests they arguably should have done even better. I'm not going to go ahead and predict growth for them just because of that, but I think we should at least look at what they did last year as 100% valid with the POTENTIAL to exceed that in 2026.

I also think this Process+ grade shows that for Jakob Marsee(ADP: 136) as well. I know people don't believe in his batting average, and that's fair, but he also had a 108 Decision Value score and a 95 Contact Value score, so I'm not so sure his batting average is such a fluke. Yes, he has below-average overall contact, but his swing decisions are good, which can often make the most of mediocre contact ability. I don't think he's going to hit .292, but I also think the .230 batting average that projections give him is too low. I'd be comfortable projecting him for about .250-.260, and I think that drastically improves his value from what projections have for him.

Taylor Ward (ADP: 149) is also just one of those boring veterans who doesn't get mentioned enough, but I'd still target him in drafts, and I already wrote about Michael Harris II (ADP: 97) in my article on bounceback hitters, so I'd encourage you to check that out.

Potential Fantasy Baseball Hitter Breakouts

NameTeamADPProcess+
Alejandro KirkTOR158117
Alec BurlesonSTL175116
Brandon LowePIT184109
Bryan ReynoldsPIT204104
Daylen LileWAS206111
Ramon LaureanoSDP224117
Otto LopezMIA225104
Caleb DurbinBOS225100
Xander BogaertsSDP237108
Colson MontgomeryCHW246109
Mickey MoniakCOL248113
Kyle ManzardoCLE248109
Dillon DinglerDET261115
Andrew VaughnMIL275125
Miguel VargasCHW282106
Brett BatyNYM284109

Bryan Reynolds(ADP: 202) was another hitter who appeared in my article on bounceback hitters, which explains why I'm in on him at his cost this season. I wrote about Colson Montgomery (ADP: 247) in my Pull Air% article earlier this offseason, and the gist of that argument was that I don’t think Montgomery is going to hit for a high average. Swing-and-miss will always be part of his game, but the zone contact rate makes me believe that something around .225-.235 is manageable. That should mean Montgomery can hit 25+ home runs, but you have to have a batting average buffer around him. Brett Baty (ADP: 273) also appeared in my article on post hype hitters, so you can read that hereto see a more detailed breakdown of why I like him this season, especially at this price.

Alec Burleson - 1B/OF, St. Louis Cardinals (ADP: 175)

The key to Burleson's value is that he's finally going to get a chance for near every day playing time in 2026. Despite hitting left-handed, Burleson has no real platoon splits, so there's no reason for the Cardinals to bench him against lefties, but he often sat last year due to his poor defensive value. With Willson Contreras now in Boston, Burleson should be the everyday first baseman in St. Louis. He scored slightly below the league average in Decision Value, but his Contact and Power Value were very strong, which helped offset it. He does swing outside of the zone a touch more than you'd want, but he posted an 84% contact rate and 8% SwStr% last year, so contact is not an issue. If Burleson could be a bit more selective, we could see his power improve, because his 9.4% barrel rate and 91 mph average exit velocity suggest at least 25 home runs are in his bat. However, even without those gains, you'd be looking at a 20 home run bat who should hit .270-.280 in the middle of the lineup and have multi-position eligibility. That has plenty of value.

Ramón Laureano - OF, San Diego Padres (ADP: 223)

Laureano is coming off his best season since 2019, slashing .281/.342/.512 with 24 home runs and 76 RBI in 132 games. His Process+ was the 5th-highest of any hitter on this list, and he also has the same Power Value as Colson Montgomery and just below Jo Adell, which speaks to his overall quality of contact. You may be surprised that Laureano has an 11.2% barrel rate for his career, but he got more out of that quality of contact this season by being more selective. He was also challenged more in the zone, which figures to happen again, hitting in that Padres lineup. His career 73.5% contact rate is fine but not great, and his 12.5% SwStr% shows some swing-and-miss in his game. However, Laureano plays in a park with a spacious outfield, and he has plenty of power to drive the gaps. Perhaps he's more of a .270 hitter than a .280 one, and he may not steal double-digit bases like he used to, but we should not be treating last year as if it was a fluke.

Caleb Durbin - 3B, Boston Red Sox (ADP: 222)

Guys like Durbin showing up here are not a surprise. He makes an elite level of contact and shows a tremendous understanding of the strike zone. In fact, his Decision Value score was the 5th-highest on this list, and his Contact Value score was second behind Liam Hicks. He even scored OK when it came to Gap Power, but his overall Power Value was the second-lowest on this list, just ahead of Hicks. However, those contact and decision grades are crucial because Durbin is moving from a park that ranked 19th for right-handed hitters, according to Statcast’s Park Factors, to one that ranks 8th. If you sort just for hits, Boston is the 4th-best park for right-handed hitters, while Milwaukee is 24th. The issue is that Boston ranks 22nd in right-handed power, while Milwaukee ranks 6th. Good thing for Durbin that his value doesn't come from his power. He may only hit 10 home runs in Boston, but it would not surprise me if the Green Monster helps improve his batting average from .256 to something over .270. Considering he's also a threat to steal at least 20 bases and play almost every day in a good lineup, that makes him a strong buy this fantasy season.

Mickey Moniak - OF, Colorado Rockies (ADP: 244)

I think some people are not convinced by what Moniak did in Colorado last year, and, in some ways, I understand. He was the first overall pick in 2016 and didn't earn meaningful MLB at-bats until 2023. In that year, he struck out 35% of the time. He returned in 2024 and slashed .219/.266/.380 with 14 home runs, while still striking out 27.3% of the time. There was some thought that it would never really click; however, his age-27 season was his best yet, and not just in surface-level stats. His bat speed increased, his barrel rate jumped to nearly 14%, his hard-hit rate was a career-high 45%, and he made more contact than he ever had before.

Now, he did still post a 14.7% SwStr%, he doesn't walk, and a lot of the contact gains could have just been that he was challenged in the zone more than he ever had been before. His Decision Value grade was just 82, and his Contact Value was 85, so he was well below league average in both. Yet, he has plenty of power and hits in arguably the best offensive environment in the game. Maybe he's more of a .250-.260 hitter, given his league average overall contact, but he's going to make that contact count. Another 20 home run season feels like a given, and he has the speed to swipe 10 bases as well. He may sit versus lefties sometimes, but Colorado doesn't have tons of options to challenge him early, so you're going to get a .255 hitter who goes 20/10 as a baseline. That's pretty good at this cost.

Andrew Vaughn - 1B, Milwaukee Brewers (ADP: 269)

Another player who we're seemingly not believing in. Vaughn made his debut with the Brewers on July 7th, so these metrics are just from his time in Milwaukee, but his time there was impressive. He hit .308/.375/.493 with nine home runs and 46 RBI in 64 games. He also posted an 11% barrel rate and 47.4% hard-hit rate while having a 113 Decision Value grade, 114 Contact Value grade, and 108 Power Value grade. He and Josh Bell (more on that later) are the only players on this list to post 100 or higher in all three categories. It's also important to point out that Vaughn was never really bad with the White Sox. In 2024, he hit .246/.297/.402 with 19 home runs. In 2023, he hit .258/.314/.429 with 21 home runs. He also posted barrel rates of 9.3% and 8.4%, respectively, and averaged abouta 45% Hard-Hit rate. So now you take that same hitter, you cut down his chase rate a bit, you put him in a better home park and in a better lineup, and it makes sense that you get better production. I think Vaughn is a legit .270 hitter with 20-25 home run power who will hit in a decent lineup. I'd even take him as my 1B in deeper formats.

Miguel Vargas - 1B/3B, Chicago White Sox (ADP: 287)

Nothing Vargas did last year jumps off the page, but he consistently put himself in good positions to succeed. His Decision Value grade was 130, which is not only the best of any player on this list, but one of the best of any player in the league. That makes some sense since he doesn't chase out of the zone and has a high zone swing rate while also posting a near double-digit walk rate. He has a tremendous understanding of the strike zone. His Contact Value was just above 100, but he had an 87% zone contact rate and just an 8% SwStr%, so he makes more than enough contact. His power also isn't great, but a 9.3% barrel rate, 40% hard-hit rate, and 89.7 mph average exit velocity are all slightly above league average. In the second half of the season, Vargas hit .267/.354/.436 in 45 games with six home runs and 25 RBI. Given that last year was also his first year as a full-time player, it makes some sense that he would begin to settle in as the year went on. I think that second half is a pretty good reflection of who Vargas could be as an MLB hitter, and that type of player has value for you as a multi-position bench bat or a corner infielder in deeper formats.

⚾️ Coming soon: MLB returns to NBC and Peacock in 2026! In addition to becoming the exclusive home of Sunday Night Baseball, NBC Sports will broadcast MLB Sunday Leadoff, “Opening Day” and Labor Day primetime games, the first round of the MLB Draft, the entire Wild Card round of the postseason, and much more.

Fantasy Baseball Late-Round Hitter Targets

NameTeamADPProcess+
Colt KeithDET329101
Lenyn SosaCHW333108
Dominic CanzoneSEA337117
Mark VientosNYM340110
Jesus SanchezTOR350101
Mike YastrzemskiATL355100
Victor CaratiniMIN356108
Josh BellMIN357124
Liam HicksMIAUndrafted105
Spencer HorwitzPITUndrafted105
Eric WagamanMINUndrafted101

I wrote about Mike Yastremski (ADP: 354) in my Pull Air% article, so I'm certainly interested in him now that he's in Atlanta. I wouldn't be drafting him outside of 15-team leagues and deeper, but he's a name to know. Jesus Sanchez(ADP: 355) was also in that same article about bounce-back hitters, so you can read about him in detail here. Mark Vientos (ADP: 349) doesn't have a starting job and hasn't had great stats this spring, but his underlying process has always been pretty solid. I'm not ready to write him off. I also don't fully know how Seattle is going to rotate their outfielders, so I assume that Dominic Canzone (ADP: 337) has a starting job, but it's unclear how many games he'll start or how long his leash will be if he struggles to begin the season.

Lenyn Sosa - 2B/1B, Chicago White Sox (ADP: 332)

Sosa was pretty good last season, hitting .264/.293/.434 with 22 home runs in 140 games for the White Sox. He has a 116 Power Value and 106 Contact Value, but the issue, as you can probably tell from his OBP, is that he swings at almost everything. Sosa had a 41% chase rate last year, and even though he just had a 10.5% SwStr% overall, when you swing that much at pitches out of the zone, those are not usually pitches you can do damage on. Sosa has a nearly 90% zone contact rate and a 10.4% barrel rate, so he makes tons of quality contact in the zone, but there are also too many at-bats that end with him making contact on a pitch out of the zone that he can't hit well. I don't expect him to all of a sudden change who he is as a hitter, but if he could rein it in slightly, we could easily see him duplicate what he did last season. He doesn't run, and his defensive value is pretty weak, so he's going to need to hit consistently to stay in the lineup, but I'm watching him with real interest to start the season. If I see even a modest growth in that chase rate, I'm going to be adding him wherever I can.

Josh Bell - 1B, Minnesota Twins (ADP: 358)

As I mentioned above, Bell and Andrew Vaughn are the only two hitters on this list who scored over 100 (better than league average) in all of Decision Value, Contact Value, and Power Value. The decision part shouldn't surprise you for Bell since he has a career 11.2% walk rate and sub-26% chase rate. The power value also makes sense since he tied his highest home run total since 2021. He also posted a 12% barrel rate and 47% hard-hit rate, which were the second-best marks of his career, and he saw a nearly THREE MPH increase in his bat speed last season. Bell also has a acreer 10% SwStr% and has been above an 85% zone contact rate every year since 2022, so he has at least league average contact ability, if not slightly better. All of that is pretty appealing. As a switch-hitter, he doesn't have any natural platoon needs, and he's on a Twins team that will probably play him 140+ games or at least basically every day until they try and move him at the trade deadline. That's a situation that I'm interested in in deeper formats.

Spencer Horwitz - 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates (ADP: 360)

Horwitz got off to a slow start last year after his season was delayed due to a wrist injury. However, he hit .272/.353/.434 in 108 games with 11 home runs. His best grade was his 113 Decision Value mark, which makes sense because he has an 11% walk rate in his career and doesn't expand the zone much at all. He pairs that with solid contact skills, as represented by his 90% zone contact rate and 7.6% SwStr%, but modest power. In truth, Horwitz is more of a gap-to-gap guy who I don't really see eclipsing 15 home runs in a season, but I would expect him to always hit around .270 or better, which can be helpful. The issues against him are that he doesn't have a single career stolen base, and the Pirates have a lot of options at 1B/DH with Horwitz, Ryan O'Hearn, and Marcell Ozuna, so it's unclear how playing time is going to be divided up. That makes Horwitz more of a deeper league option for me.

Fantasy Basketball Waiver Wire: Jazz's Cody Williams crashes the party

Week 21 marks the start of the fantasy basketball playoffs for managers in Yahoo! default leagues. Those in need of pickups have come to the right place, as there are 10 options who can help you win your matchup and advance!

For a great breakdown of the Week 21 schedule with actionable advice, check out Raphielle Johnson’s Fantasy Basketball Week 21 Schedule Primer.

As a reminder, this article will only feature players rostered in 25% or less of Yahoo! leagues for the rest of the season. The waiver wire in competitive leagues is cut-throat, and managers looking for an end-of-season edge will need to dive deep.

Here are the top fantasy basketball waiver wire adds for Week 21.

Priority Adds

1. Cody Williams

2. Tristan da Silva

3. Danny Wolf

4. Leonard Miller

5. Javon Small

6. Justin Edwards

7. Mitchell Robinson

8. Bilal Coulibaly

9. Pelle Larsson

10. Ayo Dosunmu

Tristan da Silva, Orlando Magic (25 percent rostered)

With Franz Wagner and Anthony Black still on the shelf, da Silva has taken on a larger role for Orlando, and he’s shined with the new opportunities. He’s ranked 15th in per-game value across the last week behind four-game averages of 20 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 2.3 steals, 1.0 blocks and 2.3 triples across 35.5 minutes. In that span, he’s shot an efficient 53.5% from the floor and 87.5% from the charity stripe.

Bilal Coulibaly, Washington Wizards (22 percent rostered)

Washington has mixed up its rotations and shared playing time generously throughout the season, but Coulibaly has been a consistent presence over the last week. He’s offered fantasy managers top-75 per-game value in that span thanks to averages of 17.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.0 blocks and 2.3 triples across 31.9 minutes.

Ayo Dosunmu, Minnesota Timberwolves (19 percent rostered)

Dosunmu has logged better than 30 minutes in each of his last two games, averaging 15.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 3.0 triples. He’s been a reliable source of offense off the Wolves’ bench, but he’s shown the ability to grab boards and find teammates for easy looks, making him a solid pickup off the waiver wire.

Justin Edwards, Philadelphia 76ers (16 percent rostered)

Philly has lost a number of players to injury, and the absences continue to pile up. Edwards has been a prime beneficiary of additional minutes, and he went off for a 21/2/2/2 and three triples on Sunday. Over the last week, Edwards has provided top-70 fantasy value with averages of 17.3 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 3.0 steals, 0.7 blocks and 1.0 triples across 28.3 minutes per game.

Mitchell Robinson, New York Knicks (14 percent rostered)

Robinson recorded a career-high 22 rebounds against the Pacers, drawing a spot start in place of Karl-Anthony Towns. That signature performance was sandwiched between rebound performances of 10 and 13 off the bench. Robinson has been great with the second unit, and he’s averaged 7.3 points, 15 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 2.0 steals and 1.3 swats across his last three games. He’s a reliable source of defensive stats with the upside for monster rebound totals.

Javon Small, Memphis Grizzlies (13 percent rostered)

Despite a number of rest days and sporadic absences, Small has been a fixture in Memphis’ rotation as of late. Over his last four games, the West Virginia product has averaged 18.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 1.5 steals and 2.5 triples across 27.3 minutes. He’s ranked 52nd in per-game fantasy value over the last week, and he deserves a pickup.

Cody Williams, Utah Jazz (11 percent rostered)

Williams set a new career high in the scoring department with 19 points against the Trail Blazers on Friday before blowing that scoring total out of the water with 34 points in Sunday’s loss to the Kings. Williams posted a monster 34/7/7/1/1 line with three triples against Sacramento, showcasing his high ceiling. Across the last five games, Williams has averaged 17.6 points, 6.0 rebounds and 4.8 assists across a whopping 38.4 minutes. The Jazz are actively tanking, so Williams seeing nearly 40 minutes per night is huge for his fantasy value down the stretch. The Jazz play three games this week and four games next week. Add him as soon as you can.

Pelle Larsson, Miami Heat (9 percent rostered)

Larsson has taken full advantage of his starting opportunities, and he’s averaged 17.7 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.7 swipes and 1.3 triples across his last three outings. Those numbers are good for top-40 fantasy value over the last week. Larsson isn’t a flashy option, but he’s available in more than 90% of Yahoo! leagues, making him a worthwhile add.

Danny Wolf, Brooklyn Nets (8 percent rostered)

The rookie has started three of his last four games, averaging 12.5 points, 8.8 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.1 “stocks” and 1.5 triples across 27.5 minutes. Day’Ron Sharpe is out for the season, and Brooklyn has no incentive to play starters Nic Claxton or Michael Porter Jr. big minutes down the stretch. Wolf should see plenty of run to close out his inaugural campaign on a high note.

Leonard Miller, Chicago Bulls (3 percent rostered)

Chicago’s already-thin frontcourt rotation has been hit with injuries, and Miller has answered the call as the next man up. In three straight starts, he’s averaged 15.3 points, 9.3 boards, 1.7 assists, 1.3 steals and 0.7 triples across 35 minutes. Expect him to see substantial playing time over the final month of the NBA season, making him a strong add in 12-team leagues.

Other options:Cason Wallace (25%), Herbert Jones (20%), Julian Champagnie (18%), Derrick Jones Jr. (18%), Royce O’Neale (16%), Jaylin Williams (15%), Keon Ellis (11%)

SB Reacts: Do fans want changes in Dallas at the top?

So.. who else could be moved by Finley and Riccardi? (Photo by Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images

The Dallas Mavericks’ season is essentially over, but there’s still plenty to talk about both within the team and around the NBA. And if you’re interested in placing a wager or two, FanDual is the best place for that.

Last week I asked two loaded questions and I’m honestly very surprised at the results. It focused on if our readers want changes at the top. The first question had to do with the front office and our interim general managers.

After the Anthony Davis trade I am shocked that this is right down the middle. One would think they earned some leeway after getting out from under that albatross of a contract, but apparently not! The voting fans were split down the middle here.

The second question asked if fans want to keep Jason Kidd.

Again, this one favoring keeping Kidd surprised me. He was arguably more involved with the Luka Doncic trade than the interim GMs and he’s only ever led Dallas to a winning season with Doncic at the helm. I think he’s a good playoff coach, but you need to make the playoffs, something he’s failed to do in three of his five seasons here.

These next two questions were part of the national survey.

This one makes sense given what we saw out of Tatum. He looks incredible and is going to lead the Celtics deep into the playoffs if the seeding breaks right. The East is weak and the Celtics are good.

Now this one makes me wonder if the voting fans are mostly Spurs fans. I don’t see the young Spurs holding up for two months, the playoffs is a diffferent grind than the regular season. But they certainly are talented enough to win and they’ve beaten the Thunder repeatedly this season, so getting to the Finals is the actual hurdle, not winning them.

Look for another survey tomorrow!

Report: NBA Board of Governors to vote on league expansion

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 14: NBA Commissioner Adam Silver speaks at a press conference during 2026 NBA All-Star Weekend at Intuit Dome on February 14, 2026 in Inglewood, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the GettyImages License Agreement. (Photo by Ryan Sirius Sun/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The NBA may expand to 32 teams in a couple years, according to Shams Charania of ESPN. The league’s Board of Governors will meet on Mar. 24-25. The board may vote on teams being added in Seattle, Wash. and Las Vegas, Nev. If the teams are approved, expansion fees could be $7 to $10 billion each.

Both markets have long histories with the NBA. Seattle is the original home of the Oklahoma City Thunder, who won their first NBA championship in 1978-79 (as the Seattle SuperSonics) against the Washington Wizards (then the Bullets), one year after Washington won the championship. The Sonics moved to Oklahoma City in 2009 after ownership failed to get a new arena for the city. Since losing the NBA team, Seattle has become a marquee WNBA market where the Storm won numerous WNBA championships and now play their games at Climate Pledge Arena, where the new Seattle NBA team would play.

For Las Vegas, the city has hosted the majority of NBA Summer League games since 2004 with the exceptions of 2011 due to a lockout and 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic. The city has gradually become a market with multiple professional sports teams like the Las Vegas Aces of the WNBA, the Vegas Golden Knights of the NHL, and the Las Vegas Raiders of the NFL. Both the Aces and Knights have won championships in Las Vegas too, so professional athletes seem to like the prospect of playing in this market.

How do you think a new Seattle NBA team and a new Las Vegas NBA team could affect the Wizards? Let us know in the comments below.

Spring training bench battle: Josh Rojas or Nick Loftin

SURPRISE, ARIZONA - FEBRUARY 23: Josh Rojas #40 of the Kansas City Royals watches his home run during the eighth inning of a Spring Training game against the Chicago Cubs at Surprise Stadium on February 23, 2026 in Surprise, Arizona. (Photo by Mike Christy/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Someone on the Royals’ bench needs the ability to play third, in case All-Star Maikel Garcia goes down or needs a rest. The two most likely candidates to fill that role would be either Josh Rojas or Nick Loftin. The former signed a minor league deal and is coming off a pretty terrible season, but he also has a lot of big-league experience. The latter worked his way up through the Royals’ system and has played parts of the last three seasons at the major-league level. So who’s it going to be?

Josh Rojas was on the South Side in Chicago last year, and he could not hit while also grading out as a below-average fielder. His 44 wRC+ in 2025 was easily the worst of his career, though he posted between 1 and 2.5 fWAR in each of the four preceding seasons. This is a veteran ballplayer with a track record that suggests he belongs in the big leagues. So far this spring, the left-handed hitter has been crushing it, hitting .258/.361/.548 while trying to earn a spot in Kansas City. He can play second and third as well as some corner outfield, so that flexibility matches up well with Loftin. I would give Loftin the edge at third overall because he has been pretty consistent there, though he has a more limited sample size. Rojas has the edge at second base and in the outfield. He is older at almost 32, but not so old that his productive years are necessarily behind him.

I like Rojas a lot, mostly because he has shown himself to be a productive MLB player and Loftin really hasn’t yet. Because Nick still has an option remaining and can easily be sent to the minors, that makes Josh the safer pick. However, he was really, really bad last year, so he should get the hook pretty quickly if the team goes with him. Rojas will be inexpensive, though not quite as cheap as Loftin. His mix of plate discipline and experience makes him a better bet and a cheap way to add depth to the 40-man roster.

What does Nick Loftin bring to the table? A couple of things working in his favor are youth and right-handedness. With Jac Caglianone and Kyle Isbel already in the outfield, adding another left-handed bat in Rojas might be a bit of overkill, especially with Pasquantino, Jensen, and Massey also in the infield mix. The roster is balanced enough right now that I’m not sure that will become the deciding factor.

What youth brings is upside and often less injury risk, along with a slight cost advantage. Since Rojas accepted a minor league deal, he can start in Triple-A (assuming there are no opt-outs I missed) and keep the organization’s depth intact. So far, he has also been crushing it in Arizona, posting a .300/.400/.600 slash line. In both 2024 and 2025, however, Loftin struggled to hit at the big-league level, and until he proves he can do that consistently, he leaves a lot to be desired. Maybe he will turn it on at age 27, and if he does, the team would be rewarded for sticking with him over Rojas. He has just over a year of service time, so he is under team control for another half-decade and could be a valuable role player for years to come.

Both players are making a strong case to be part of the 2026 Royals Opening Day roster, but there can really only be one unless the team decides it can do without Michael Massey. That seems unlikely, though perhaps these two could make him look expendable.

For me, I would give Rojas the first shot. He has been a good player at the top level for most of his career, while Loftin’s consistent inability to hit the ball hard has really limited him offensively. It would be nice to see Loftin take a step forward and become a solid bench piece for the next few years, but I have seen enough of him to think that is a risk a team trying to win now should not take.

Six Nations 2026: our writers pick their tournament highlights

From the brilliance of Bielle-Biarrey to Carré’s jaw-dropping try, our highs and lows from a sensational championship

Player of the tournament Impossible to look past Louis Bielle-Biarrey who, among assorted records, has become the first player to score a try in every Six Nations game in successive seasons. But Italy’s Tommaso Menoncello and Ireland’s Stuart McCloskey also deserve a podium place.

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NBA eyes expansion to Las Vegas, Seattle in 2028

The NBA appears ready to take the first steps toward expansion for the 2028-29 season.

ESPN reported on Monday, March 16, that the league's board of governors will hold a meeting next week to explore adding expansion teams in Las Vegas and Seattle.

The league is moving toward accepting bids from potential franchise owners exclusively in those two cities. The expansion fee is projected to be in the $7-$10 billion range per team, industry executives said. Both the Seattle and Las Vegas franchises would likely be among the league's top eight revenue generators, ESPN reports.

If the league moves forward, there could potentially be a vote later this year to finalize the expansion to 32 teams. For the proposal to pass, it would need support from 23 of the 30 governors.

The Las Vegas Review-Journal also reported on Monday that Nevada Governor Joe Lombardo met with NBA commissioner Adam Silver last week to discuss expansion and the Las Vegas market. The outlet previously reported that NBA legend Magic Johnson met with Lombardo about joining an ownership group if Las Vegas were to be awarded a team.

The NBA last expanded in 2004 when it added the Charlotte Hornets. Seattle was home to the Supersonics from 1967 to 2008, when owner Clay Bennett moved the franchise to Oklahoma City in 2008 after a dispute over building a new arena. Las Vegas has never had an NBA team, but has added NFL and NHL franchises over the past decade. The A's are also planning to move to Las Vegas ahead of the 2028 MLB season.

NBA commissioner Adam Silver said in December the league planned to decide in 2026 whether to seek further expansion.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NBA looking toward expanding to Las Vegas, Seattle in 2028

Penguins vs Avalanche Prediction, Picks & Best Bets for Tonight’s NHL Game

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Nathan MacKinnon and Martin Necas are one of the best offensive duos in the NHL, and Valeri Nichushkin is the prime beneficiary. 

My Penguins vs. Avalanche predictions expect the veteran power winger to take full advantage of the increased opportunity.

Let’s get into my NHL picks for Monday, March 16.

Penguins vs Avalanche prediction

Penguins vs Avalanche best bet: Valeri Nichushkin Over 0.5 points (-115)

The Colorado Avalanche are dealing with a wave of injuries up front, most notably to Artturi Lehkonen and Gabriel Landeskog.

Valeri Nichushkin is on the top line with Nathan MacKinnon and Martin Necas as a result, providing him a golden opportunity to find the scoresheet.

MacKinnon and Necas hold the team's top two slots in 5-on-5 points by a wide margin. Playing alongside them will raise Nichushkin's floor and ceiling.

Nichushkin has averaged more than two points per 60 with MacKinnon, and that trio has posted an encouraging 72% xG share through 18 minutes.

Penguins vs Avalanche same-game parlay

MacKinnon and Nichushkin both rank Top-3 on the Avalanche in 5-on-5 shot rate. Necas? 9th. He is much more selective as a shooter, giving him high assist equity on this line.

The Avalanche have outscored opponents by 1.64 goals per game at home following a day of rest. The Pittsburgh Penguins have allowed 3+ goals in six straight and are unlikely to stop the bleeding in this matchup.

Penguins vs Avalanche SGP

  • Valeri Nichushkin Over 0.5 points
  • Martin Necas Over 0.5 assists
  • Avalanche -1.5

Penguins vs Avalanche odds

  • Moneyline: Penguins +195 | Avalanche -240
  • Puck Line: Penguins +1.5 (-120) | Avalanche -1.5 (+100)
  • Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-120) | Under 6.5 (+100)

Penguins vs Avalanche trend

The Colorado Avalanche have covered the Puck Line in 15 of their last 25 games at home (+4.70 Units / 16% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Penguins vs. Avalanche.

How to watch Penguins vs Avalanche

LocationBall Arena, Denver, CO
DateMonday, March 16, 2026
Puck drop9:30 p.m. ET
TVESPN

Penguins vs Avalanche latest injuries

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Mavericks vs Pelicans Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s NBA Game

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It’s a Southwest Division showdown tonight at the Smoothie King Center as the Dallas Mavericks visit the New Orleans Pelicans. 

We have two teams that aren’t great on either end, and I’ll explain in my Mavericks vs. Pelicans predictions and NBA picks why I see value in a low-scoring affair. 

Mavericks vs Pelicans prediction

Mavericks vs Pelicans best bet: Under 239 (-110)

The Dallas Mavericks rank just 24th in the Association in points with 113.2 per night, while the New Orleans Pelicans aren’t much better at 115.4. Defensively, they’re also both in the bottom half of the league. 

Most importantly, recent meetings have a common trend — low-scoring. Five of the last six meetings have comfortably cashed the Under. This season, they’ve battled it out three times, and all of those meetings hit the Under.

In fact, Dallas and New Orleans haven’t combined for more than 233 points once this season across those three contests. 

Mavericks vs Pelicans same-game parlay

Cooper Flagg is having a stellar rookie campaign. He’s averaging 20.2 ppg, and the No. 1 overall pick just cooked the Cavaliers for 27 and 25 points over the last two games.

The youngster has faced the Pelicans three times this season, and he’s averaging 21.7 ppg. He’ll cook tonight. 

Trey Murphy III is an elite 3-point shooter. He’s averaging 3.3 makes on 8.5 attempts per contest for a 38.8% clip. In March, across seven appearances, he’s shooting 47.4% from downtown while averaging 3.9 makes. 

The 25-year-old has cashed the Over in four of his last five appearances. 

Mavericks vs Pelicans SGP

  • Under 239
  • Cooper Flagg Over 20.5 points
  • Trey Murphy III Over 3.5 threes

Our "from downtown" SGP: Capture the Flagg!

Flagg has cashed for Over in assists in two of his last three, and he just dropped 10 dimes against the Cavs yesterday. 

Mavericks vs Pelicans SGP

  • Under 239
  • Cooper Flagg Over 20.5 points
  • Trey Murphy III Over 3.5 threes
  • Cooper Flagg Over 5.5 assists

Mavericks vs Pelicans odds

  • Spread: Mavericks +8.5 | Pelicans -8.5
  • Moneyline: Mavericks +275 | Pelicans -350
  • Over/Under: Over 239 | Under 239

Mavericks vs Pelicans betting trend to know

The Mavericks have gone Under the total in 13 of their last 18 road games for +7.5 units and a 38% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Pelicans.

How to watch Mavericks vs Pelicans

LocationSmoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA
DateMonday, March 16, 2026
Tip-off8:00 p.m. ET
TVKFAA, GCSEN

Mavericks vs Pelicans latest injuries

Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

State of the Position, 2026: Second Base

HOUSTON, TEXAS - MARCH 14: Willi Castro #3 of Team Puerto Rico celebrates as he rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run against Team Italy in the first inning at Daikin Park on March 14, 2026 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Kenneth Richmond/Getty Images) | Getty Images

When the Rockies signed Thairo Estrada to a one-year deal ahead of the 2025 season, it seemed like the team had an answer — at least in the short-term — at second base in the post-Brendan Rodgers era. 

Injuries derailed that plan as Estrada started and ended the season on the 60-Day IL twice, first with a fractured wrist and then with a sprained hamstring. He also suffered a sprained right thumb for a shorter IL stint. In the end, Estrada played only 39 games and the Rockies second base position was made up of a quilt of players with no clear starter emerging in the season.

Adael Amador started the second-most games at second with 26, Kyle Farmer and Ryan Ritter followed with 28 starts apiece, Orlando Arcia started 13 games, while Tyler Freeman had 12 starts.

With the Rockies signing Willi Castro this offseason, and only three of those six players returning to spring training, second base will look different for Colorado in 2026. And it has to if the Rockies want to improve — Colorado’s second basemen combined to rank No. 29 in on-base percentage (.267) and OPS (.550), No. 28 in batting average (.213) and slugging percentage (.283) and tied for No. 26 in homers (eight) and RBI (53) among the same position in MLB in 2025.

The starter

When the Rockies signed Castro to a two-year, $12.8 million deal in January, he seemed like a great fit for the Rockies because of his utility abilities, as he can play second, third, and shortstop, as well as all three outfield positions, as well as his talent on the basepaths and bat that made him an All-Star with the Twins in 2024.

He’s pulled way ahead as the best candidate for second base in spring training, even if he only has a small sample size with the Rockies. In 11 at-bats in five games, Castro has seven hits, including two doubles, three runs scored, two RBIs, two walks, one stolen base and one strikeout. 

He also has the 2026 World Baseball Classic on his resume and had a standout performance for Puerto Rico. He earned a spot on the highlight reels with a leadoff homer against Italy in the quarterfinals on March 14. It was a cause for celebration as Castro only has 10 homers in seven MLB seasons.

In 15 at-bats in five games in the WBC, Castro recorded four hits, including a double and a homer, with three RBI, four walks, a stolen base and four strikeouts. Even before that homer, the Purple Row community dubbed Castro as the Rockie having the best WBC.

At age 28, Castro could give a boost to the Rockies lineup, offensively and defensively, as he works to show that his down year in 2025 with the Twins (slash line of .222/.404/.389) was an outlier.  

The backups

Ritter, the 25-year-old who finished the 2025 season as the Rockies second baseman, has been playing so well in spring training that he’s making a case to earn a spot on the roster. He can play second, shortstop and third base, and has even played six games in left field this spring. In 42 at-bats over 16 games, Ritter is hitting .357/.413/.524 with three stolen bases, four doubles, one homer, seven RBI and nine runs scored. 

Ritter made his MLB debut on June 6 last season, and started with a bang before being sidelined with a right middle-finger laceration. Despite the injury, Ritter returned and ended up playing 60 games, batting .241/.296/.337 with nine doubles, three triples, one home run, 18 RBI, three stolen bases (in four tries), 10 walks (4.8%) and 61 strikeouts (29.5%). He’s also a great defender with a solid glove and range.

Also vying for a backup spot, Amador has played the most at second base in spring training thus far. His 11 games lead the way with Roc Riggio at nine, Edouard Julien at seven, Castro at five and Jose Torres at one. Even though Amador made his MLB debut in 2024, he is still just 22 years old. In 10 games in 2024 and 41 games last season, Amador has struggled at the plate with a career line of .176/.242/.250 with two homers, 10 RBI and 27 strikeouts in 148 at-bats.

This spring, Amador has hit better, slashing .229/.270/.429 with two homers, five RBIs, six runs, one double, two walks, six strikeouts and two stolen bases with 34 at-bats. Amador’s first homer also happened to be the Rockies’ first of spring training — a solo shot on Feb. 21. 

Depth options

Julien is making a play for first base or second base — or both. The Rockies acquired Julien in a trade with the Twins in late January. Julien, who had a breakout rookie season in 2023 with the Twins when he posted a .263/.381/.459 slash line with 16 home runs. He’s struggled in the two seasons since, but he does provide versatility and a left-handed bat. Julien hasn’t performed well at the plate so far in spring training, where he’s only posted two hits in 15 at-bats with an RBI, two walks, one run scored and five strikeouts.

Freeman is also available to play second base and can also play in the outfield. Arriving just before the 2025 season from Cleveland in a trade for Nolan Jones, Freeman put up the best batting average of Rockies with at least 100 games. He batted .281/.354/.361 with 18 stolen bases, 20 doubles, two homers, two triples, 50 runs and 31 RBIs. While Freeman offered a solid bat, his defense can be a bit of a liability. This spring, Freeman is hitting .316/.435/.421in 19-at bats.

On the farm

There are lots of possibilities for second basemen in the Rockies farm system. 

Riggio (No. 14 PuRP) came to the Rockies from the Yankees in the 2025 trade for Jake Bird. The 23-year-old lefty-hitting, right-handed throwing infielder has a solid presence at the plate with power and a good eye. Riggio has posted two hits, including one homer, in eight at-bats this spring. After coming to Colorado’s organization on July 31, Riggio played the rest of the season in Double-A Hartford, where he’s likely to start 2026.

Also in the pipeline is Torres, a 26-year-old infielder, who was claimed by the Rockies in the 2024 Rule-5 Draft from Cincinnati. He split his time in 2025 between Double-A Hartford and Triple-A Albuquerque and hit .242/.307/.426 with 15 homers and 17 doubles.

Roldy Brito (No. 11 PuRP) is a promising prospect in the Rockies farm system. He isn’t expected to arrive in the Big Leagues until 2028, but he has a lot of potential.

Closing thoughts

Considering the quality and depth of the second basemen — even if it’s through utilitymen who can play multiple infield and even outfield positions — the Rockies are poised to perform better at second base this year. Whether Castro becomes the Rockies next second baseman or serves as a bridge to the future, hopefully, the Rockies are closer to finding their second baseman of the future.

Can Castro ride his WBC hot streak into the regular season? Will the depth and versatility help the Rockies win more games this season? Will Ritter force the Rockies to slot him in the lineup more often? Let us know what you think.


Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!

Previewing the AL East: Tampa Bay Rays

PORT CHARLOTTE, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 24: Cedric Mullins #31 of the Tampa Bay Rays celebrates scoring a run against the Minnesota Twins during a spring training game at Charlotte Sports Park on February 24, 2026 in Port Charlotte, Florida. (Photo by Mark Taylor/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The Tampa Bay Rays head into 2026 in a somewhat familiar position: a payroll well below most divisional rivals, a roster built more on ingenuity than name recognition, and a front office quietly convinced they can squeeze more wins out of this group than any algorithm will give them credit for.

One potential area of difference: the Rays’ typical areas of strength and weakness. For one, the usually light-hitting team has one of the league’s more exciting bats in Junior Caminero. In 2025, the 22-year-old third baseman casually posted a 45-homer, .264/.311/.535 season in 2025, making him not just the face of the franchise, but the sort of player who seems like he’ll one day go and sign a 12-year deal with the Yankees. That’s a few years from now, anyway.

On the other hand, the pitching staff—where Tampa Bay usually shines—harbors a few reasons for concern. All told, since last season the Rays lost a total of nine pitchers between the rotation and the bullpen. This team seems to have a magic ability to find good pitching out of nowhere, but they still find themselves having to rebuild more than half of last year’s innings.

Let’s dive into some of the recent comings and goings.

Additions and Subtractions

Since 2025, the Rays lost nine pitchers and five position players. The former includes starters Shane Baz (you know where he went), Zack Littell (at last year’s trade deadline), and Adrian Houser, not to mention Zach Eflin the year before that. Relievers Pete Fairbanks, a longtime weapon, Eric Orze, Forrest Whitley and Mason Montgomery, among others, also flew the coop.

The departed position players include University of Maryland alum and longtime Ray Brandon Lowe (2B), dealt to Pittsburgh, and three outfielders in Josh Lowe, Jake Mangum, and Kameron Misner, plus 1B/OF Christopher Morel.

To cover these holes, the Rays did what they do, which is go in aggressively on low-cost veteran talent. Perhaps the most notable acquisition was Cedric Mullins, the former Oriole who can hit for power, steal bases, and play a reliable center field. Tampa also brought back speedster Jake Fraley, an outfielder who was a former second-round pick a decade ago. The Rays acquired one more outfield glove in Justyn-Henry Malloy, via trade with the Tigers, and a veteran utility man in Gavin Lux.

The projected Tampa Bay batting order will lean heavily on its top four spots. In his second season, centerfielder Chandler Simpson will lead off and attempt to create chaos on the bases. Yandy Díaz (day-to-day this spring with an undisclosed issue) bats second and remains a scary-enough disciplined contact hitter to make his non-existent defense worth the investment. Infielder Jonathan Aranda is likely to hold down first base and hit solidly in the third slot. Then comes Caminero, and with his 45 home runs and .846 OPS last season, opposing pitchers should be ready.

After that? It gets thin, and conspicuously left-handed. There’s Mullins, Lux, Taylor Walls at short, Jake Fraley in right, and Hunter Feduccia behind the plate. It’s a lineup with a pretty limited floor.

Then, as I said, there’s starting pitching. The Rays are top-heavy, with Drew Rasmussen their clear ace. The righty had an elite 2025 season, going 10-5 with a 2.76 ERA in 31 starts. After that, well. Shane McClanahan hasn’t pitched a meaningful inning since August 2023, but he was darn good before that, and presumably is healthy now. Ryan Pepiot was fine last year. The 35-year-old Steven Matz was signed this offseason and will compete for a rotation spot. Same deal, Nick Martinez.

The bullpen figures to include Edwin Uceta (temporarily slowed down with a back injury in spring training), Garrett Cleavinger, old Oriole Bryan Baker, Mason Englert, Jesse Scholtens, Hunter Bigge (status also uncertain), and Joe Boyle and Ian Seymour, two starters making a turn to relief pitching this year.

Projections

This is, on paper, a lineup that could work in a bad division. The AL East is not a bad division. So we might well have doubts about the Rays’ chances this year. Here’s what the pundits think:

PECOTA: 81-81 (5th in the AL East)
FanGraphs: 81-81 (same)
DraftKings Sportsbook: Over/Under 78.5 Wins, +250 to win the AL East, +3000 to win the AL Pennant, +8000 to win the World Series

The pundits place the Rays at between 78-81 wins, which in this division almost certainly means watching October from home. The Blue Jays project as division favorites, the Yankees will have Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón back in the rotation at some point, the Red Sox’s rotation got significantly better thanks to acquiring Ranger Suarez, and the Orioles have the talent to make a run.

None of that means the Rays can’t surprise. Manager Kevin Cash has coaxed more out of less before, and this organization has a habit of finding contributors where other teams dare not tread. But in the AL East, the margin for error is essentially zero. So maybe don’t fully count the Rays out. But also, just maybe, don’t pencil them in, either.

AL West Preview

The AL West is an intriguing division to unpack. Last year was a bit of a turnaround, as the Astros failed to win it in a full season for the first time since 2016, and actually missed the playoffs for the first time since that season. The Mariners project to be the crema of the crop this year, and in fact, have one the better projections in the AL overall.

There’s a fair bit of uncertainty here beyond the Mariners looking like the best team in the division, and every team addressed the offseason in a different way.

Seattle Mariners

On paper, it feels like Seattle has a great chance to win the division in back-to-back years, something the franchise has never managed in their history. (Their only consecutive playoff appearances came in 2000-2001, thanks to the 116-win campaign in the latter year. The Mariners have this bizarre thing where, in their history, they’ve had ten different seasons with 85+ wins and no playoff berth; they’ve only had five seasons with 85+ wins and a playoff berth.)

The rotation was fine last year and looks pretty good heading into 2026. Josh Naylor is back on a big-money $92.5 million, five-year deal. The eventual Brendan Donovan transaction saw him make his way to Seattle, and Jose Ferrer cost a big-time prospect but will now pair with Gabe Speier as another lefty option in their bullpen.

Jorge Polanco and Eugenio Suarez (a midseason (re-)acquisition last year) have moved on. Whether Cal Raleigh can pull off an encore season remains a question, but he’s projected to be the top catcher in the game in 2026. Julio Rodriguez has generally been a monster despite complaints about consistency, and gives the Mariners the best center field projection in MLB as well. One spot to watch will be shortstop, as J.P. Crawford is playing through a shoulder woe in Spring Training and had an unfortunate defensive season last year. He’s now in his 30s, and while the Mariners have Colt Emerson bumping around, the situation is somewhat fluid.

Overall, this is a dangerous team projected for 88 wins as a central estimate.

Houston Astros

The Astros and Braves both missed the playoffs in the first time in seemingly forever last year, and both have tried to reload. The Astros rejiggered their rotation, signing Tatsuya Imai from overseas and dealing for Mike Burrows. Overall, their roster doesn’t wow you, and the hope is that the Jeremy Pena-Carlos Correa-Yordan Alvarez triumvirate hits enough to make up for an unsettled situation in right field, while the bullpen carries some water for a rotation that will need someone (probably Imai) to step up behind Hunter Brown.

The FanGraphs Steamer-ZiPS blend is not a fan of their up-and-down roster, seeing the Astros as something like 80-82 as a central estimate. ZiPS alone is much more positive, with an 87-win central estimate that’s just one game behind the Mariners. The Astros are, overall, reminiscent of the Braves — not just because both teams need a bounceback into contention after what is hopefully a one-year blip, but also because there are depth issues that threaten to upend the whole thing.

Texas Rangers

Both the Depth Charts and ZiPS have the Rangers as around a .500 team. That’s what they’ve been the last two years after their 2023 title run, so that makes sense. They’ve retooled, swapping Skip Schumaker for Bruce Bochy in the manager seat, moving Marcus Semien for Brandon Nimmo, and acquiring MacKenzie Gore for a bunch of prospects. The team will definitely look different than its prior iterations, but whether that moves the needle, who knows?

There are question marks and potential downsides at catcher, first base, second base, third base, and in the bullpen. But there is also a ton of upside at shortstop (hi Corey Seager) and all over the outfield, not to mention that this looks like a top-five rotation on paper. It’s a mix-and-match roster construction that could be great with some good fortune, or awful if some of the expected producers get hurt or regress. If the rotation leads the way, maybe the offense does just enough to vault them out of the .500 range.

The Athletics

No one has the Athletics as particularly good, but you don’t need to be particularly good to make a playoff run these days, and at least their roster is pretty fun. They spent the offseason handing out extensions to youngesters like Tyler Soderstrom and Jacob Wilson, while also acquiring veterans like Jeff McNeil to play babysitter.

Overall, the Athletics are projected squarely below .500, but there’s some stuff to like here. Nick Kurtz was a monster and could be monstrous again. Combined with Brent Rooker and Soderstrom, there’s some real offensive heft here in a small park. The real issue is the pitching, both on the rotation and relief end. The rotation doesn’t have much upside (Luis Severino dominating the U.S. lineup for 3 1/3 innings last night notwithstanding), and the bullpen is more about hoping for breakouts and bouncebacks than anything else. This is a roster where the position players look like a fringy contender and the pitching staff looks like a miserly rebuilder. If they can force slugfests every night in that park, though, they might make some noise, though.

Los Angeles Angels

Ah, the Angels. Has a team ever done so little with so much? Maybe they’re thankful for the Mets.

Former Brave Kurt Suzuki is the Halos’ new manager, and GM Perry Minasian may be on the hot seat as well at this point. The roster has retooled, moving Taylor Ward for Grayson Rodriguez, while signing a quintet of relievers and adding a bunch of position player depth. As the roster keeps changing, it’s hard to know exactly how it’s all going to play out, but the projections have them as the dregs of the division. You can see why, though:

  • They’re projected to have the worst production from catcher and second base in MLB.
  • First base, third base, the entire outfield, and DH are also poor in this regard, while projections don’t care for their bullpen additions.
  • Zach Neto is one of the few exciting parts of this roster.

Basically, the Angels are hoping that a solid rotation provides cover for everything else, or that everyone gets better in a hurry. If those things don’t happen, then it’ll be consistent with prior years… again. No one will really notice that the composition of the roster has changed.

Mariners News, 3/16/26: Julio Rodriguez, Brendan Donovan, and Bryce Miller

MIAMI, FL - MARCH 15: Julio Rodríguez #44 of Team Dominican Republic looks on during batting practice prior to the 2026 World Baseball Classic WBC game presented by Capital One between Team USA and Team Dominican Republic at loanDepot park on Sunday, March 15, 2026 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Rob Tringali/WBCI/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

Good morning! The Mariners defeated the Cincinnati Reds yesterday 6-3 with another solid George Kirby outing. His final line after 4 2/3 innings pitched included two runs, seven hits, one walk, and four strikeouts. There is no game today as the players will get a break from live game action.

With Team USA’s win in the World Baseball Classic last night, who do you hope their opponent will be in the finals?

In Mariners news…

  • The No Fly Zone was in full effect in Miami last night as Julio made an incredible catch at the wall for the Dominican Republic, and robbed Aaron Judge and Team USA of a home run in the fourth inning of the WBC.

In the World Baseball Classic…

Around the league…

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