DETROIT, MI - AUGUST 22: Bobby Witt Jr. #7 of the Kansas City Royals celebrates with Maikel Garcia #11 after they both scored against the Detroit Tigers on a double by Salvador Perez during the third inning at Comerica Park on August 22, 2025 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images) | Getty Images
As the Red Sox approach Opening Day, it’s time to start taking at look at the other American League playoff contenders. Next up, a team that’s led by an MVP candidate.
What’s this team’s deal?
In 2024 the Royals bounced back from a 106-loss season to win 86 games and finish in second place in the AL Central. Those Royals would sweep their Wild Card series against the Baltimore Orioles before falling to the Yankees in the ALDS. It looked like a Kansas City miracle. 2025 would see a chunk of that progress fall back to earth. Regression to the mean comes for us all. But they still won 82 games last year.
This winter the Royals added outfielders Starling Marte and Lane Thomas. They’ll join top prospect Jac Caglianone in his sophomore season in the majors. Caglianone is fresh off a WBC run with Team Italy that saw him slash .286/.500/.571 with a home run and a K:BB of 4:5. Extreme sample and quality sizes abound with the WBC, but this is a guy who put up a OPS north of 1.000 in AAA. They’re expecting some runs like that mixed into a full season.
How good are they?
Bobby Witt Jr. was a superstar again and finished fourth in AL MVP voting. He was an All Star. He won a Silver Slugger and a Gold Glove. When you commit to essentially a forever deal with a player, that’s what you want to see.
KC also saw a breakout season for third baseman Maikel Garcia. He finished 14th in MVP voting, was an All Star, won a Silver Slugger, and earned himself an extension that runs at least through 2030. Oh yeah, he also won WBC MVP this week after Venezuela took the championship. From Opening Day 2025 to Opening Day 2026 he’s had a pretty good year.
Vinnie Pasquantino bounced back from an injury-shortened 2024 season to play in 160 games last year, hitting .264/.323/.475 with a personal best 32 home runs. “Where’s the f’ing wine?“ indeed. Pasquatch looks ready to be the solid contributor at first base they need. Especially when he’s beaned up.
The starting rotation features Cole Ragans, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Noah Cameron, and Kris Bubic. The Royals had one of the better rotations in the game last season by ERA and are set to do so again with this crew. Lugo and Wacha are in their mid-30s, but the other three are all under 30.
They acquired former Red Sox pitcher and Matt Strahm to shore up the bullpen.
You may remember Aaron Sanchez from his time on the Blue Jays a decade ago. Well, he’s in camp as a non-roster invitee and is still just 33 years old. Old friend John Schreiber is still there, too.
There are a lot of questions in the rotation — even if it can be good. The lineup is Witt, Pasquantino, Garcia, and Perez with maybe Caglianone joining them. They need a bounce-back season from Jonathan India.
The WBC featured a number of Royals across the teams in the tournament and there is talent here, but is there enough? Bobby Witt Jr. is still just one person in the lineup.
Who’s their most likeable player?
Most likeable isn’t always synonymous with best, but in this instance there’s a strong case for it. Bobby Witt Jr. is always playing hard out there and looks like he’s loving every second of it. How can you not root for that?
Who’s their least likeable player?
I almost want to say Salvador Perez because it feels like he’s always hitting against the Red Sox. As it turns out though, .276/.308/.483 isn’t his best split against a team. And his 16 homers are just second to teams not in the AL Central (he has 17 against the Yankees). That’s not really enough to override his general status as a catching legend. He’s been around so long he feels like a familiar opponent but without real hard feelings.
Michael Wacha, has, if anything, been a little worse for the Royals than he was in Boston, as his health and performance continue to fluctuate wildly.
Matt Strahm’s hair is just…scary.
Maybe this space gets filled by Jac Caglianone. Did you know that the C in Jac stands for Caglianone? His name is Jeffrey Allen Caglianone, but he goes by Jac, like a PIN Number. What are we even doing here?
Schedule against the Red Sox
The Red Sox will be in Kansas City May 18-20 and the Royals visit Fenway Park from September 11-13.
Season Prediction
With some health and progress from their younger players like Caglianone and Garcia — and in an AL Central that’s probably weak after the Tigers — they could bounce right back up to 84-85 wins. They can maybe even sneak into the division lead if things go wrong in Detroit and they flip Tarik Skubal this summer.
PEORIA, ARIZONA - FEBRUARY 24: Cal Raleigh #29 of the Seattle Mariners looks on during the fourth inning of a spring training game against the Chicago White Sox at Peoria Stadium on February 24, 2026 in Peoria, Arizona. (Photo by Mike Christy/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Six days remain until Opening Day. As things stand now, playoff odds at both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus give a pretty good chance that all three AL wild cards will come out of the AL East. There is also a decent chance that things go outside of this conventional wisdom and that the Orioles, if they find themselves in a wild card race, will be fighting for space with teams from one of the other divisions in the AL.
Essentially, every team except for the White Sox has at least a little bit of a chance, according to these models. The Angels have a modest 5% postseason chance on FG, though PECOTA puts them under 1%. Even the Athletics who play in Sacramento but do not officially use its name get an 11.8% at PECOTA and as high as 24.2% at FG. There have been a lot of seasons in my life where the Orioles having a one in four chance of making the postseason before it began would have seemed good. This is not one of those seasons.
When I wrote a version of this article one year ago, the wild card seemed like a fallback if the Orioles couldn’t compete for the division. As things played out, they didn’t even compete for the wild card. If things go better this year – but not radically better – here’s who the Orioles might be contending with to make it back into the postseason.
Detroit Tigers
Last season: 87-75, 2nd place, 1 GB in Central (Wild Card 3)
Projected wins: 87 (FanGraphs) / 83 (PECOTA)
Key subtractions: Pretty much nobody who was good last year
I wrote a year ago that the Tigers were largely trying to run it back from a disappointing 2024 and now they’re trying to run it back from a better 2025. That is, run it back plus adding Valdez to a rotation that includes the record-setting-salary two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal at the top of it. They even managed to hold on to guys who became free agents, since Gleyber Torres accepted the qualifying offer and they re-signed their midseason trade rental Kyle Finnegan. There’s even a Verlander reunion in here, though whether that proves to be good for the team is less certain.
One part of Detroit’s revival of fortunes in 2025 was an improved offense, with a number of guys who’d struggled, including the former 1-1 Spencer Torkelson, getting better to help get the Tigers to at least a league average offense. If your pitching staff is good enough, a league average offense will do. Other than Skubal, it wasn’t exactly, but now they’ve got Skubal and Valdez and whatever’s left of Verlander, so that could be another story this year.
Kansas City Royals
Last season: 82-80, 3rd place, 6 GB in Central
Projected wins: 81 (FG) / 85 (PECOTA)
Key subtractions: Mike Yastrzemski (free agent), Hunter Harvey (free agent), Adam Frazier (free agent), Angel Zerpa (traded to Brewers)
Key additions: Isaac Collins and Nick Mears (trade with Brewers), Matt Strahm (trade with Phillies), Starling Marte (free agent)
Kansas City may not be doing a “run it back” to the same degree that Detroit is, but there is a whole lot of continuity here, including five of the six starting pitchers who made at least 10 starts last year. The one guy they didn’t bring back is the guy who had the worst ERA out of those six. There was some bullpen shuffling for what was largely a disappointing group.
Among the position players, they’ve got to rely on continuing to get star-level performance from Bobby Witt Jr. The Royals bet big on infielder Maikel Garcia this offseason, giving him a five-year contract extension. What they really need to improve is a bad-hitting outfield. Collins, acquired from Milwaukee, is part of that. KC could also use better hitting from Kyle Isbel (.654 OPS) and, more crucially, recent #6 overall pick Jac Caglianone (.532 OPS in 62 games).
Minnesota Twins
Last season: 70-92, 4th place, 18 GB in Central
Projected wins: 78 (FG) / 79 (PECOTA)
Key subtractions: Pablo López (Tommy John surgery)
Key additions: Josh Bell (free agent), Victor Caratini (free agent), Taylor Rogers (free agent)
A lot of analyst commentary spent this offseason assuming that the Twins would be making salary-slashing trades that they never actually made. Perhaps, in the case of López, they ought to have done this, but they didn’t. They kept him, they kept Joe Ryan, they kept the oft-injured Byron Buxton. Minnesota did its salary cutting at last year’s trade deadline, notably getting rid of Carlos Correa, so they will be bringing something of a different look into 2026 compared to Opening Day 2025.
The Twins plan for 2026 contention probably involves Buxton staying healthy and getting a lot of improvement from the arms in their rotation behind Ryan. That includes their home-grown guy Bailey Ober (5.10 ERA in 2025) and July 2025 acquisitions Taj Bradley and Mick Abel. I will be interested to see as 2026 plays out whether the Orioles might have been better off trying to trade for Ryan than signing Zach Eflin and Chris Bassitt.
The most substantial move these Guardians did this offseason was reach another contract extension with their career-long star, José Ramírez. He also happens to be the only good hitter on this team. Cleveland won the division last year while getting a .670 OPS from its offense. They overperformed their Pythagorean expected record by eight wins last year and kept nearly everything the same. It is not a surprise to see the projection systems not being high on this strategy. It might work out anyway. Cleveland has won this division six times in the last ten years.
Key additions: Jose A. Ferrer (trade with Nationals), Brendan Donovan (three-way trade from Cardinals)
This was a pretty good offense last year, with Raleigh’s star breakout powering a lot along with a revival of fortunes for Julio Rodríguez. It was a good hitting group almost from top-to-bottom, though, with only two real weaknesses. One of those was third base, which they shored up substantially – at least on paper – with the acquisition of Donovan. The Mariners big offseason move was re-signing their own guy, Josh Naylor, who they’d acquired from the Diamondbacks in July.
Add in a starting rotation that should have three or four league average-or-better guys and an elite closer in Andrés Muñoz and that’s a good recipe to try to repeat a division title and maybe win Game 7 to go to the World Series rather than lose it.
Houston Astros
Last season: 87-75, 2nd place, 3 GB in West
Projected wins: 81 (FG) / 85 (PECOTA)
Key subtractions: Framber Valdez (free agent), Victor Caratini (free agent)
Key additions: Joey Loperfido (trade with Blue Jays), Tatsuya Imai (posted international free agent)
Houston had been on a run of making the postseason every year from 2017 until they missed out last year. They didn’t miss out by much, but still. That team lost Valdez to free agency, perhaps choosing not to retain their own player because he was looking for an ace payday while not even being the Astros ace in 2025.
Replacing Valdez in the rotation is Japanese pitcher Tatsuya Imai, whose profile ultimately left MLB teams uncertain about him. Imai secured a contract that will allow him to opt out for a bigger payday if he pitches as well as he believes he can. If that’s the case, the Astros will benefit for this year. If it doesn’t work out, $18 million per year is an expense they can absorb.
Texas Rangers
Last season: 81-81, 3rd place, 9 GB in West
Projected wins: 81 (FG) / 83 (PECOTA)
Key subtractions: Marcus Semien (trade with Mets)
Key additions: Brandon Nimmo (trade with Mets), Danny Jansen (free agent), MacKenzie Gore (trade with Nationals)
The 2023 World Series from Texas, following 60- and 68-win seasons and succeeded by 78- and 81-win seasons, looks more like a fluke the more time that passes. The flag will, as they say, fly forever. They’ve swapped old, expensive guys in the Semien-for-Nimmo deal, shored up a weakness at catcher with the Jansen free agent deal, and made a big swing on Gore by trading a prospect package as if he’s the top-end starting rotation that he’s never actually been yet.
The projection systems are not high on this all working out for them. That doesn’t mean that it can’t happen. As we know from past eras of Orioles success, if two or three things go right beyond what any projection system envisioned, it’s not that hard to go from that to blowing past your projected win total by ten or more. Texas’s upside relative to the projections is probably in its rotation: Gore finally blossoming, Jacob deGrom staying in good health, Nathan Eovaldi carrying forward his 1.73 ERA in 22 starts into a full season.
**
Will I look stupid at season’s end for not including the Athletics, Angels, or White Sox in this article? It is up to them to do that to me. Sitting here in mid-March, I will not be bothered.
Which of these other teams concerns you the most as possible wild card contenders for the Orioles?
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - MARCH 19: Marat Khusnutdinov #92, David Pastrnak #88, Charlie McAvoy #73 and Fraser Minten #93 of the Boston Bruins celebrate the first-period goal against the Winnipeg Jets at the TD Garden on March 19, 2026 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Steve Babineau/NHLI via Getty Images) | NHLI via Getty Images
With a big divisional game against Detroit looming on Saturday night, you could be forgiven for worrying that the Bruins might overlook a home game against a fading Winnipeg Jets team.
However, the B’s showed up and then some, jumping out to a 4-0 second period lead before eventually gliding to a 6-1 win at TD Garden.
The B’s got goals from six different players, including Lukas Reichel, who scored on a fortuitous bounce in his Bruins debut.
Jeremy Swayman made 23 saves in the win, earning himself a First Star for his efforts.
After a scoreless start to the first period, David Pastrnak got the scoring started when he collected a loose puck out of mid-air and beat Connor Hellebuyck to make it 1-0 Bruins.
Hellebuyck was in the spotlight for the next Bruins goal, when he failed to collect a wraparound that ended up on Reichel’s stick for a chip-in to make it 2-0 Bruins.
Viktor Arvidsson was the beneficiary of a puck that ramped off a stick and looped up and behind Hellebuyck to make it 3-0 Bruins late in the second period.
And that was that! Bruins win, 6-1, sweeping the season series with Winnipeg.
Game notes
While the final score makes the entire game seem like a blowout, it’s worth noting that this was a 2-0 game until the last two minutes of the second period. Swayman played well for the Bruins, making 16 saves in the first two periods, including a highlight-reel stop.
Those second and third goals by the Bruins are the kind of weird goals that feel like your team doesn’t get them when they’re struggling but does when things are going OK. I think back to weird moments like the stick-snap in the game against Florida that went against the B’s, or Charlie McAvoy blowing an edge in OT against the Devils. Tonight, the bounces went the Bruins’ way, but they also deserve credit for building on the lead after those bounces.
David Pastrnak is up to 4G-4A-8PTS totals in his last five games, as he had a goal and an assist tonight. Countryman Pavel Zacha is right on his heels in that same stretch, with 4G-2A-6PTS totals.
Lukas Reichel is so new to the B’s that he doesn’t even have a photo on the NHL website. SOMEONE GET THE KID A CAMERA. While he benefited from Hellebuyck’s misplay, he showed good speed and instincts to get himself into he right spot to make a play.
All six Bruins goals were scored at even strength, as they came up empty in one power play opportunity.
While we’re all tired of hearing about “this is a big game,” this was a pretty big win for the Bruins given other results. Ottawa, Detroit, Columbus, and Philadelphia all won on Thursday night, meaning the B’s didn’t really gain much ground. Both the Bruins and Red Wings are now tied on points with Montreal, while Columbus and the Islanders are a point behind. The Isles actually fell out of the playoff picture based on a games-played tiebreaker with Columbus, so…it’s getting tight!
The B’s will be back in action in Detroit on Saturday night, a primetime 8 PM Eastern start on ABC.
It’s hard to believe, but today we stand only six days away from the Cubs’ first 2026 regular season game, which will be next Thursday at Wrigley Field against the Washington Nationals.
A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 58.
Honestly? That wouldn’t be too bad, as long as the “chance” turns into “nope.”
Here’s who I think will be standing on the third-base line to be introduced to the Wrigley crowd next Thursday.
Catchers (2)
Miguel Amaya, Carson Kelly
Nothing to really discuss here. These two are a solid catching tandem.
Infielders (5)
Michael Busch, Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman, Matt Shaw
I’m listing Shaw as an infielder even though he could very well be in right field on Opening Day if Seiya Suzuki’s injury forces him to the injured list, something that hasn’t yet been determined.
Outfielders (5)
Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, Dylan Carlson, Michael Conforto
With the possibility that Suzuki’s not available, Carlson and Conforto could both make the Opening Day roster. Incidentally, PCA and Bregman are expected back in camp today, but likely won’t play in a game until tomorrow or Sunday.
“I’ve suggested to the hitting coaches that they stay away from him,” Counsell said. “I did have a meeting with the hitting coaches at one point this spring. I called them all together, and they got a little nervous. I said, ‘You guys should stay away from Ballesteros.’
“Joking, you know, but they got the message.”
Ballesteros might never become more than an emergency/occasional catcher in MLB, but the man can hit. In Spring Training so far he’s batting .355/.394/.613 (11-for-33) in 11 games with two doubles, two home runs and eight RBI.
Starting pitchers (5)
Matthew Boyd, Edward Cabrera, Cade Horton, Shōta Imanaga, Jameson Taillon
We already know that Boyd will start the Opening Day game. Beyond that Craig Counsell hasn’t announced his rotation, so the rest are listed in alphabetical order.
For the record, I am not concerned about Taillon, who’s had a terrible spring. Nor am I concerned about Imanaga, who had an outstanding outing on Tuesday. I had written that he had 23 whiffs in that outing; the correct number is 25, which is the most by any Cub in any game, spring or not, since Yu Darvish had 26 in 2020.
Relief pitchers (8)
Daniel Palencia, Hunter Harvey, Phil Maton, Hoby Milner, Caleb Thielbar, Jacob Webb, Colin Rea, Gavin Hollowell
It’s possible the Cubs keep Ben Brown in the pen to start the season, although he might also be sent to Triple-A Iowa to be stretched out to start. The same is true of Javier Assad, I think. Hollowell has had a good spring (24 batters faced, 11 strikeouts), but he is optionable, so it’s possible someone else might take that spot. One thing Jed Hoyer has been really good at is identifying scrap-heap relievers who have come to Chicago and succeeded.
Of the eight relievers listed above, only two (Rea and Thielbar) were on last year’s Opening Day roster and four (Harvey, Maton, Milner, Webb) were not in the Cubs organization at all in 2025.
PITTSBURGH, PA - DECEMBER 30: Ben Kindel #81 of the Pittsburgh Penguins skates against the Carolina Hurricanes at PPG PAINTS Arena on December 30, 2025 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Sargent/NHLI via Getty Images) | NHLI via Getty Images
The Pittsburgh Penguins have certainly changed the expectations for themselves this season. When the 2025-26 season began, most people were anticipating a bad team, going through a long season that was going to put them closer to the top of the NHL Draft Lottery than the top of the NHL standings. But as we enter the stretch run of the regular season, they remain in second-place in the Metropolitan Division with an excellent chance of making the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
At this point the playoffs are the expectation. As they should be given the way they have played and the position they have put themselves in with the standings. This is a good team, and the expectations should be treated as such. But whether they make the playoffs or not, and whether they do anything if and when they get there, this season is still part of a rebuild and the long-term outlook is still important. Very important. There have been some significant long-term developments that should be seen as highly encouraging.
The most significant of those developments remains the performance of 18-year-old rookie center Ben Kindel.
He scored another big goal for the Penguins on Wednesday night, helping them secure an important point on the road against the Carolina Hurricanes. It is his 17th goal of the season in just 65 games, putting him on a pace for around 20 goals for the season.
That would be a significant number to reach as an 18-year-old rookie going right to the NHL in his draft year. The list of players that have done that in the modern era is both pretty short, and also a significant who’s who list of stars.
Even 17 goals is a big number for somebody his age.
Going back over the past 30 years, only 15 players have scored at least 17 goals in their age 18 season. Most 18-year-olds are not even a serious option for the NHL, and the ones that do make the NHL do not hold their own enough to get more than a nine-game look in the league before being sent back to Juniors or taken out of the lineup.
Kindel not only proved himself enough to stay and become a regular part of the lineup, he has become a significant contributor. He is not a passenger on a good team. He is one of the reasons this is a good team.
It is also relatively uncharted territory for a player drafted where he was to be this good, this productive, and this important so soon.
Of the 15 players that have matched his goal total at this age, the overwhelming majority of them were players picked with a top-two pick in the draft.
The list and each player’s draft position:
No. 1: Sidney Crosby, Nathan MacKinnon, Macklin Celebrini, Steven Stamkos, Ilya Kovalchuk, Connor Bedard, Matthew Schaefer, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Rick Nash
No. 2: Andrei Svechnikov, Patrik Laine, Jordan Staal
No. 3: Marian Gaborik
No. 4:
No. 5:
No. 6:
No. 7: Jeff Skinner
No. 8:
No. 9:
No. 10:
No. 11: Ben Kindel
No. 12:
No. 13:
No. 14:
No. 15:
Unless you are a top-two pick, you really do not step right into the NHL in your draft year and make this sort of impact. The fact the Penguins got Kindel where they did, and that he has been as good as he has, is a huge score for the team’s front office and perhaps even the type of good luck they needed to really accelerate any sort of a rebuild.
It is not just the goal numbers that are significant, either. It is also the fact he is simply legitimately a good player that has taken on so many roles and been such a major contributor outside of the offense.
Of the 16 Penguins skaters that have played at least 500 minutes of 5-on-5 hockey he ranks third in shot attempt share, seventh in expected goal share, seventh in scoring chance share and fourth in high-danger scoring chance share.
Since the start of the 2007-08 season when such data started to be tracked, he is one of just two 18-year-olds that have scored at least 17 goals and had a shot-attempt share of more than 52 percent (Andrei Svechnikov is the other).
He has taken on more of a penalty killing role as the season has gone on, and entering play on Friday ranks first on the team in goals against per 60 minutes and expected goals against per 60 minutes when he is on the ice in shorthanded situations.
In most years he would be a serious contender for the Calder Trophy as the league’s Rookie of the Year, but I feel like Matthew Schaefer has such a lock on that award that it is not even worth discussing. But Kindel should still get significant votes and at least be worthy of a top-five finish.
I am still not sure what his long-term upside and ceiling is, but the company he is keeping right now in his first year is impressive. He may not be a franchise-changing player on the level of a Sidney Crosby, Nathan MacKinnon or Macklin Celebrini, but he at least looks like a long-term, cornerstone player that can be a foundational piece for a contending team. That is the most important development of this season. Perhaps even more than anything the team as a whole does.
Tommy Reffell has been with Leicester Tigers since he was a teenager playing at academy level [Getty Images]
Leicester Tigers flanker Tommy Reffell has been ruled out for about eight weeks after suffering a throat injury in training.
Reffell was hurt when hit in the neck by "a stray boot" during a session in the days after leading Tigers to Prem Cup final success against Exeter Chiefs.
The injury could see the 26-year-old Wales international miss at least seven matches, not including further knockout ties in the European Champions Cup if they get past Bordeaux Begles in the round of 16 in April.
"We're gutted to lose Tommy to a very unfortunate injury where a stray boot has hit his throat," Tigers head coach Geoff Parling told the club website.
"He has been a real pest to the opposition, and we'll use this time to firstly get him fit and healthy and secondly get him ready and firing for the end of the season."
Reffell's injury means loanee Hamish Watson will come in for his Tigers debut against Bristol Bears on Sunday.
Watson rejoined Tigers, a club he played for at academy level, on a short-term deal from Scottish side Edinburgh earlier in March.
"This also presents an opportunity for Hamish to start and show his quality in a Tigers shirt in a full circle moment after leaving our academy 16 years ago," Parling said.
After a promising stretch of wins and a tightly contested loss to the Buffalo Sabres, the Vegas Golden Knights suffered a heavy setback on Thursday night, falling 4-0 to the Utah Mammoth. The defeat marked Vegas’ second consecutive shutout loss and the third this month, highlighting ongoing challenges both offensively and defensively.
Three unanswered goals in the first period from Utah runs Adin Hill out of the net 🫣 pic.twitter.com/fKAX10deWs
— Sports on Prime Canada (@SportsOnPrimeCA) March 20, 2026
Adin Hill Needs Help
Vegas goaltender Adin Hill was given a sixth consecutive start by head coach Bruce Cassidy, adding to a heavy workload accumulated over the past week. The decision, aimed at maintaining consistency in net, proved costly. Utah struck early, scoring three goals on three shots within the first eight minutes, putting the Golden Knights in a significant deficit that persisted for most of the game.
The first two goals were partly the result of defensive lapses, including leaving Clayton Keller unmarked, while the third highlighted Hill’s positioning, as he was unable to react quickly enough to a high-percentage scoring chance.
Hill was replaced following the third goal, with backup Akira Schmid stepping in. The early concession of goals underscored the need for a reliable goaltending tandem in Vegas. With Carter Hart reportedly nearing a return from injury, competition for the starting role could intensify in the coming weeks, though Hart’s injury history raises questions about his long-term availability.
Offensive Struggles Persist
Offensively, the Golden Knights were unable to generate consistent pressure against Utah. While expected goals models, such as Moneypuck, suggested over four scoring chances, the team struggled to convert zone entries into meaningful opportunities. Many shot attempts were blocked or misfired, and high-danger scoring chances were rare.
The power play, limited to just two opportunities, failed to make an impact, while the penalty kill remained a positive element, successfully neutralizing all Utah advantages with disciplined execution. Vegas also registered a few unlucky bounces, including shots off the post, further limiting offensive production.
Implications
The loss extends Vegas’ recent record to seven wins in the last 22 games, highlighting the team’s inconsistency. Since January 19, the Golden Knights are 0-12-1 when allowing the first goal, emphasizing the importance of strong starts and reliable goaltending. With playoff positioning still in contention, the team must address the defensive lapses and offensive inefficiencies exposed against Utah while managing the workload for Hill and Hart moving forward.
TORONTO, CANADA - DECEMBER 31: Scottie Barnes #4 of the Toronto Raptors handles the ball during the game against the Denver Nuggets on December 31, 2025 at the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2025 NBAE (Photo by Mark Blinch/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
The Toronto Raptors continue their five-game road trip in the mile-high city tonight, facing the Denver Nuggets. This is their second and final matchup of the season, with the first ending in a called-off successful 3-pointer by Ingram as the clock expired that would’ve send the game to overtime on New Year’s Eve:
The last time they met, Denver’s roster looked very different. They were missing four of their five starters due to injury, but still managed to overtake Toronto. This will be the Raptors’ opportunity for redemption, but they will have to do it against a Nuggets team at full strength.
Currently in the league, their are 10 teams above the Raptors, with Denver a single spot ahead. So far this year, Toronto has struggled greatly when facing the League’s elite, with a record of 5-18 against those teams. Three of those wins came against the Cavs, one against Detroit and one against the Thunder.
Including this game, there are 14 left in the season. Only four of those are against top 10 teams. Now, more than ever, Toronto needs to see what they are capable as the postseason looms. Only four games separate Toronto in 5th from Charlotte in 10th in the East. They will need to view every game as must-win until they secure their spot and avoid the play-in.
It also couldn’t hurt for them to see what they can do when they go toe-to-toe with tougher competition. Luckily for Toronto, they’re coming into this matchup with momentum. On Wednesday, the Raptors steam-rolled the Bulls in a 30-point victory that showed what Toronto is capable of. They did everything right. Passing. Shooting. Defence. Now, if they can channel that energy again, they should have a chance against Denver too.
The biggest challenge in overcoming the Nuggets is Jokic. Not just because of his ability to score and take over games, but also the way he facilitates for his teammates. He is often doubled by defences, leaving someone open. Jokic capitalizes and finds the open man for the easy basket. Even without him in their last matchup, that’s the system Denver ran. Cutting, driving, and kick-outs for open shooters to pick apart defences.
The Raptors know this, so they will have to be fully engaged tip to buzzer. Help defence will need to be active and mobile. Players will need to do a better job following their man to prevent back-cuts. They may even need to utilize a single coverage on Jokic, which they have options for. Poeltl is back, Mamu has good size as a backup, and should-be DPOY candidate Scottie Barnes will likely end up with some coverage against him too.
Canadian Jamal Murray will also draw some attention as he is able to find his shot from all over the floor. His long-range shooting is one of his best assets that often help him run up the score. Keeping the ball out of his hands helped the last time out, but will be a bit more of a challenge now that he doesn’t need to be their primary ball handler. Even still, the less he touches the ball tonight, the better for the Raptors.
While the rosters are different than the last matchup, the script is the same. Let’s just hope for a different outcome.
Probable Starters
Toronto: Immanuel Quickley, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl, Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett
Denver: Cam Johnson, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Christian Braun
Injury Report
Toronto: Chucky Hepburn (Out: G-League), A.J. Lawson (Out: G-League), Alijah Martin (Out: G-League), Collin Murray-Boyles (Doubtful: Thumb sprain).
Denver: DaRon Holmes II (Out: G-League), Curtis Jones (Out: G-League), KJ Simpson (Out: G-League), Peyton Watson (Out: Hamstring strain)
It could have been a night to forget. Goal after goal after goal was called back on coaches’ challenges—a series of gut-punches that might have rattled even the most seasoned competitors.
Yet the Calgary Flames stayed composed. They stuck to the game plan, and in the end, they walked away with two points from their homestand opener against St. Louis two nights ago.
Tonight, the team hopes to reproduce that success, though anyone in the locker room would likely prefer a cleaner 60-minute performance.
A beautiful goal from Morgan Frost.
“We do have good character, we have good people in our room,” Flames Head Coach Ryan Huska said after the St. Louis game when asked about his team’s resilience. “I thought we stayed with it, even though the three (goals) were taken back.
“And I thought we stood up for each other as well, which was maybe the most important thing for me, was the way they kept connected on that side of the game.”
Zary Continues to Impress
Forward Connor Zary was a bright spot Wednesday against the Blues. The Saskatoon native not only scored the game’s first goal, but his slick stick handling also set up a Yegor Sharangovich goal that was later overturned by video review.
Huska noted that Zary has steadily improved throughout the season, particularly after battling injury setbacks in the second half of 2024-25.
Zary is precisely the type of player who could cement a bigger role as the regular season winds down, and that’s exactly what Huska wants to identify: players who can elevate their performance and help the team move forward.
Panthers On Winning Streak
Florida comes to Calgary following a 4-0 shutout of the Edmonton Oilers Thursday night at Rogers Place. Sergei Bobrovsky stopped all 21 shots for the win, while Cole Reinhardt, former Flame A.J. Greer, Anton Lundell, and Carter Verhaeghe supplied the offense.
The victory marked the 454th of Bobrovsky’s NHL career, tying him with Curtis Joseph for seventh-most wins by a goaltender in league history.
Despite being three games over .500, the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions remain 13 points out of a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Injuries have plagued the roster all season: Captain Aleksander Barkov has not played since last June’s Stanley Cup Final, and key forwards Brad Marchand and Sam Reinhart did not make the trip west.
Reinhart leads the team with 61 points this season, while among the players on Thursday’s ice in Edmonton, former Flame Sam Bennett tops the lineup with 53 points. Florida’s win marked their first on a four-game Pacific Division road swing, which concludes in Calgary tonight.
Flames Seek Series Sweep
Although the Panthers carry some momentum into tonight’s game, Calgary will look to complete a season-series sweep after a 5-3 victory at Amerant Bank Arena in late November. That Black Friday matchup saw five different Flames find the scoresheet—including Yan Kuznetsov, who recorded his first NHL goal—helping the team erase an early 2-0 deficit.
The Flames have now won six consecutive home games against Florida, a streak that dates back to the 2018-19 season.
Flames to Keep an Eye
After 23 games this season, Zayne Parekh has tallied just two assists, highlighting the growing pains of adapting to the NHL. While his offensive instincts show flashes of potential, his overall game is still developing, and he has yet to find the consistency needed to make a sustained impact at the professional level. Despite the obvious struggles, he has been steadily increasing his ice time in recent weeks, so we'll see if the additional playing time improves his game. If not, it might be time to send him down to the AHL.
It's been a rough go for Zayne Parekh. Credit: Sergei Belski
Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman have been key contributors for Calgary against the Panthers in recent matchups. Backlund has tallied one goal and two assists over his last three games versus Florida, while Coleman has added a goal and an assist during the same stretch. Florida has dropped two of their last three meetings with Calgary, though in the second-to-last contest on March 1, 2025, the Panthers earned a 3-0 shutout victory.
The No. 15-seeded Royals are set to take on No. 2 Purdue in the first round of March Madness on Friday, March 20, from Enterprise Center in St Louis. Queens won the ASUN Conference Tournament for the first time in program history to qualify for the tournament.
While just appearing in Friday's game will be a historic moment for the school, which is just in its fourth-year competing at the Division I level, you can imagine that the Royals enter the game with a bigger goal: an upset of the Boilermakers.
For those tuning in to see Queens making history, here's what to know about Queens before it takes on Purdue heading into the NCAA Tournament:
Where is Queens located?
No, your first guess of "on the western end of Long Island in New York" is not correct.
Queens is a private school located in Charlotte, North Carolina. The school has an approximate undergraduate figure of 1,900 and it was founded in 1857 as the Charlotte Female Institute.
In 2025, Queens and Elon University (located in Elon, North Carolina) announced the two universities would be merging, which is expected to be completed in August 2026.
Queens NCAA Tournament history
Friday's matchup against Purdue will be the NCAA Tournament debut for the Royals. The program first fielded a men's basketball team in the 1989-90 season.
Queens has been a Division I team since July 1, 2022.
What conference does Queens play in?
Queens competes in the Atlantic Sun (ASUN) Conference, a member since July 1, 2022. The ASUN has members in Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, North Carolina and Georgia.
The Royals competed in the Conference Carolinas from 1995 to 2013, then joined the South Atlantic Conference in 2013, before moving up to Division I in 2022.
Queens won its first ASUN Conference tournament championship this past season, qualifying them for the NCAA Tournament for the first time as a Division I school. The Royals also won the Conference Carolinas three times (1996, 1998, 1999) and the South Atlantic Conference twice (2017, 2022).
PEORIA, ARIZONA - MARCH 14: Jake Cronenworth #9 of the San Diego Padres runs towards first base on a single during a Spring Training game against the Cleveland Guardians at Peoria Stadium on March 14, 2026 in Peoria, Arizona. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Michael King, like his last time out, was hurt by the long ball when he and the San Diego Padres played the Chicago White Sox at the Peoria Sports Complex on Thursday. Fortunately for King, the Padres had their full compliment of All-Star players in their lineup, and they were able to overcome the White Sox and earn a 13-6 win.
King allowed three runs in the first inning, two of which came on a two-run home run by Lamonte Wade Jr., a run in the second inning on a sacrifice fly and two runs in the fifth inning which came on back-to-back home runs by Curtis Mead and Wade Jr., and left the game after five innings of work with the score tied 6-6.
San Diego exploded for seven runs in the bottom of the eighth inning. Jake Cronenworth hit a bases clearing double after three consecutive walks to start the inning and Jackson Merrill followed two batters later with a ground-rule double to put the Padres up 10-6. Ty France followed Merrill and with two runners on, he again cleared the bases with a three-run home run to give San Diego a 13-6 lead en route to the win.
The Padres return to action today with a meeting against the Los Angeles Dodgers at 6:05 p.m.
Padres News:
With Fernando Tatis Jr. and Mason Miller back at the Peoria Sports Complex after their time with their World Baseball Classic teams, both players were asked about the matchup that could have happened when the Domincan Republic faced the US in the semi-final. Miller got the third and final out of the game while Tatis stood in the on-deck circle leaving everyone to wonder, “What would have happened?”
Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune focused his report on Padres reliever Jeremiah Estrada and the motivation he has to be successful with San Diego after his departure from the Chicago Cubs.
Padres.TV color analyst Mark Grant signed and extension with the San Diego organization that will ensure he and play-by-play announcer Don Orsillo remain in the booth, together, for years to come.
Baseball News:
The Spring Breakout Series started Thursday and several games were played, giving top prospects a chance to showcase their abilities. One of those players delivered a 101-mph fastball, at 18 years old, to the No. 5 MLB prospect.
After falling 3-2 to the Ottawa Senators on Thursday night, the Islanders find themselves out of a playoff spot, giving every game going forward that must-win feeling.
Islanders head coach Patrick Roy, in tandem with goaltending coach Sergei Naumovs, has a major decision to make about who starts each game.
Now, there are a few different mindsets.
With the Blue Jackets now the team the Islanders are trying to catch in the standings, giving Sorokin that game feels automatic.
So that would mean backup David Rittich should get Montreal, right?
Not exactly.
With the way Roy works — most NHL teams, really — the focus is always on the next game on the schedule, nothing else.
The Islanders aren't focused on Columbus. All their focus is on beating Montreal.
So, Sorokin should get that game and go from there.
There is a world where Sorokin gets both games of the back-to-back.
It's not a decision that will be made prior to Saturday's result. But the reality is, Sorokin gives the Islanders the best chance to win, even on short rest.
Sorokin has not played both games of a back-to-back this season, while Rittich did so on Dec. 27 and Dec. 28, when Sorokin was out injured.
However, Sorokin has played both games of a back-to-back before. Last season, Sorokin played both games of a back-to-back four times, going 2-2-0 on the front ends and 3-1-0 on the second ends.
Analytics has any number of practical uses, but the best and original use is to verify feelings that we may have when we watch the games. Emotional responses are often rife with bias. We often remember what we want to remember and forget what we want to forget so that we can forward the narrative we have built up in our minds. As you can see by the title, we are looking at Astros efficiency. So, what exactly is efficiency?
To explain it simply, it is the percentage of runners that end up crossing home plate. However, one of the things we have neglected when looking at efficiency is the pitching end of it. The best numbers are numbers that serve as a mirror image of each other. If it is good for a high percentage of runners to score then it is also good if we prevent a high percentage of runners from scoring.
We call this segment the lab because the numbers are what they are, but the key comes in how we interpret them. So, we end up running a bit of an experiment where we set up a hypothesis and test it. In this case, we would postulate that good teams plate a higher percentage of their runners and prevent a higher percentage of the other team’s runners. For our purposes, base runners can be interpreted as hits + walks + hit by pitches. Obviously, we have situations where runners also reach on errors and fielder choices, but it is usually best to keep this as simple as possible.
So, if our hypothesis is correct then the teams with the highest run differentials would also have the positive gaps in efficiency. So, we will set up our table with runs scored and runs allowed, offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency, and run and efficiency differential. We know that teams with higher run differentials are the better teams. Will they also have higher positive differentials in efficiency? Let’s find out.
Offensive vs. Defensive Efficiency
Runs
Runs Allowed
Off Eff
Def Eff
Run +/-
Eff +/-
2017
896
700
.415
.367
+196
+.048
2018
797
534
.395
.321
+263
+.074
2019
920
640
.409
.378
+280
+.031
2020
279
275
.403
.383
+4
+.020
2021
863
658
.405
.356
+205
+.049
2022
737
518
.382
.316
+219
+.066
2023
827
698
.401
.363
+129
+.038
2024
740
649
.377
.352
+91
+.025
2025
686
665
.358
.365
+21
-.007
If you felt like the Astros were leaving a small village on base last season then your perceptions were backed up by the numbers. Their .358 efficiency rating was the worst in the World Series era. This becomes particularly acute when you look at the aggregate numbers over the time period. The pitching side saw worse years than last year, but the net result had the first negative differential in the time period.
Our hypothesis was that the best teams would have the best efficiency differential. There wasn’t a perfect correlation here because there never are in human endeavors. However, the club had four seasons with a +200 or better run differential. Three out of four of those seasons also were amongst the four best efficiency differentials. The notable exception was 2017 which saw the fourth best efficiency differential, but the fifth best run differential. That’s still pretty damn close.
The null hypothesis would suggest that efficiency is more or less dumb luck. It would be the intellectual equivalent of Lou Brown (from “Major League”) uttering, “I know he hasn’t done much against this guy, but I gotta hunch he’s due.” Serendipity is certainly a thing, but it also is not an action plan. The more intelligent fan out there would call that regression to the mean. In essence, as an analyst I have always considered intangibles to be something we haven’t figured out how to measure yet.
We used to consider clutch hitting an intangible. We used to consider pitch framing an intangible. Over time we figured out how to measure it. In short, the more you can measure the less uncertainty there is. When you can minimize the unknown you can also minimize risk. As the correlation above shows, you can’t completely eliminate it, but you can minimize it.
What do these numbers mean?
I start by looking at the hitting and pitching numbers independently. Do we see any patterns? The offensive numbers have more patterns than the pitching numbers. They simply fell off the side of the cliff the last two seasons. This is probably the main reason why the hitting coaches were jettisoned. The hope is that new voices can make them more efficient.
On the pitching side, the numbers were more scattershot. 2018 and 2022 stick out like a sore thumb in a positive sense. 2018 was the single best pitching season for any American League team since the DH was instituted in 1973 up to that point. 2022 was obviously both even better and the World Series season with the best bullpen in franchise history. The other seasons saw them give up 640 or more runs and all of them had efficiency ratings between a .352 and .383 in efficiency.
Given those parameters, the 2025 staff exists at around the midpoint. The staff loses Framber Valdez, but hopes to be better with better health and more depth. I hate to keep beating this drum, but the key to the season will come at the plate. The aggregate in the time period for offensive efficiency was .394. That seems like a tall order to get to, but if the team can get back to a ,375 efficiency then that would have been 718 runs scored with the same number of base runners. That is an extra 32 runs on the season. Most sabermetricians look at ten runs as being the win mark, So, that’s an extra three wins. The Astros win the AL West with three wins. That’s especially true if one of them comes against the Mariners. Obviously, it’s a lot easier said than done. Ultimately, we are simply explaining something mathematically that we see with our own eyes and feel emotionally. Will the Astros get back on the right side of the efficiency battle? What do you think?
LAKELAND, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 23: Members of the Detroit Tigers take batting practice before a spring training game against the Minnesota Twins at Publix Field at Joker Marchant Stadium on February 23, 2026 in Lakeland, Florida. (Photo by Mark Taylor/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Detroit Tigers have gone a long time without finding a big time player in the international free agent market. There have been signs of life from Wenceel Pérez and Keider Montero, and fourth ranked prospect Josue Briceño, but they’re still waiting for a star player to emerge. Teenaged outfielder Cris Rodriguez may be be their best hope.
The Tigers inked Rodriguez to a $3,197,500 contract as the lead member of their January 2025 signing class. The Dominican native had just turned 17 years old, yet he went out to the Dominican Summer League last year and had a really good season. Since Al Avila starting committing serious dollars to top IFA talent late last decade, most of the big names have been disappointments. Scott Harris and his staff have built an outstanding track record in the draft of snatching up the top prep hitters and proving correct, so times have changed. Hopefully, Rodriguez will prove another example of their prowess in evaluating teenaged hitters.
As a 17-year-old, Rodriguez hit 10 home runs in 50 games in the DSL, striking out a very reasonable 22.3 percent of the time. He didn’t walk much and he chased a lot, so there’s a long way to go. Rodriguez has the same power potential as a Junior Caminero but isn’t tracking as a hitter to the same degree. At least it’s comforting that Caminero was a pretty aggressive free-swinger at that age as well. Still Rodriguez’s well advanced raw power and sound swing with natural loft were death to fastballs, and he hit the ball very hard, very often. The young outfielder is already a pretty strong 6’3”, 203 pounds, but he’s still fairly lean with the frame to add another 20 pounds of good muscle. There’s a good chance he’ll boast 70 grade raw power by the time he’s in his 20’s.
In the outfield, Rodriguez can handle center field, but his speed is pretty average and he may lose a step as he fills out. Reports suggest that he has work to do to improve his jumps and route running, but that he’s a pretty sound defender who closes on the ball well and makes plays. That’s a pretty good foundation at his age. His plus arm makes him a good fit in right field, and that seems like his natural position. There’s a good chance that he’s at least an average corner outfielder in a few year’s time even if he ends up losing a little speed.
Per FanGraphs, Rodriguez EV90 in the DSL was 108 mph, which is pretty wild. His ten percent best balls in play by exit velocity averaged similar numbers to the hardest hit balls of Kerry Carpenter’s career, and again, he was 17 years old at the time. Rodriguez hit a ball 113 mph at his best last summer. The lack of an approach at the plate gives one pause, but it’s a big advantage just in pure hitting terms to have level of batspeed with the potential for more to come.
As with all young hitters, the issues to track in the years ahead are plate discipline, ability to recognize spin and offspeed, and development of his swing. Rodriguez chased out of the zone a whole lot in the DSL despite all the damage he did, and that’s going to have to improve rapidly as he plays Complex League ball this season. He’s still going to be facing a lot of wild young pitchers, and a 5.9 percent walk rate again would be pretty egregious. He hasn’t faced too much in the way of quality breaking stuff either, but that’s just par for the course at his age. It just means he’s young, and a long way from the major leagues.
We haven’t seen him other than a few game clips and BP sessions, so it’s hard to say how he looked at the plate in the DSL overall. FanGraphs notes that his hands fire from a dead stop and as a result he takes a little time to gather power. I take this to mean that he’s still something of a BP swinger without a lot of developed hitting rhythm in game. He’s certainly upright and a little stiff-legged in the box, and will benefit from more strength and flexibility through his hips and legs. Hopefully we’ll get some looks at him this summer if he gets to Single-A, and plenty of eyes will be on him as he makes his stateside debut today in the Spring Breakout game.
It’s hard to say much more. Rodriguez has enormous power potential and he already shows signs of being a pretty good fastball hitter. Obviously learning to handle guys with multiple plus pitches and good command is another matter, but that’s enough to be pretty excited about him already. It doesn’t hurt that he’s athletic and a good runner for his size even if that speed figures to diminish as he fills out, either. He should be a solid defensive presence, and if he gets to enough power the Tigers will have a pretty good player here. He has future star potential to a degree most prospects do not, so it’s worth ranking him pretty highly already.
Look for a good debut in the Complex League, where he shouldn’t have too much trouble, and a full season move to Single-A ball in 2027. It will be a bit of a treat for prospect watchers to see him in the Spring Breakout game where a lot of the Tigers’ current crop of top hitting prospects have burst onto the scene in the past few years.
