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It’s a small MLB slate on Thursday, and things have been ice-cold lately—so it might be time for a little extra help to get these home runs and MLB player props back on track. I don’t usually go searching for it, but today feels like one of those days, and one matchup is drawing plenty of attention.

Along with a look at the Rockies-Diamondbacks game, I’m also eyeing slugging catcher Shea Langeliers to launch his 13th homer of the season when he faces José Soriano and a shaky Los Angeles Angels bullpen.

These are my favorite MLB home run predictions for Thursday, May 21. 

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Hunter Goodman	+447
Corbin Carroll	+445
Shea Langeliers	+350
💲Today's HR parlay	+10600

Home run pick: Hunter Goodman (+447)

Hunter Goodman is just 1-for-13 in his career against Arizona Diamondbacks lefty Eduardo Rodríguez, but at this price, there is still plenty of home-run upside today.

First, it’s a small slate, but Goodman just saw E-Rod in his last start and did rope a 101-mph single off him. The Colorado Rockies also put nine balls in play at 95+ mph against the lefty in that series. Goodman posted a .969 OPS during it as well, including a homer off Merrill Kelly. The right-handed bat also owns the fastest swing on the team over the last two weeks at 75 mph.

The familiarity factor usually isn’t priced in, which gives this HR prop more expected value with a fair price around +380. The lefty starter has also pitched above both his career fly-ball and HR/FB rates, so some long-ball regression could finally be on the way.

With colder weather rolling in and pitcher-friendly winds showing up around the league, a controlled hitting environment may be the best place to hunt dingers on a small-slate Thursday.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: DBACKS.TV, Rockies.TV

Home run pick: Corbin Carroll (+445)

The Diamondbacks have a great hitting matchup today as the Rockies are rolling with call-up Zach Agnos, who hasn’t started a game this year and will hand things off early to a Colorado bullpen that owns the second-worst ERA over the last two weeks and ranks 28th in HR/FB rate over that stretch.

Corbin Carroll got the day off yesterday, but before that, he had ripped triples in back-to-back games and, three games ago, launched a pair of home runs against the Rockies and this bullpen.

It’s also nice to get a Top-10 bat sitting right at +EV with a fair price around +360. Over the last two weeks, Carroll ranks eighth in BlastContact, third in slugging, and second in ISO. On this small slate, he projects as the third-most likely player to go deep behind only Aaron Judge and Mike Trout.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: DBACKS.TV, Rockies.TV

Home run pick: Shea Langeliers (+350)

Jose Soriano has fallen out of form, allowing 15 runs over his last 22 innings. The command is wavering, the double-digit strikeouts are no longer showing up, and Shea Langeliers has been a major problem for him.

The BlastContact darling has already taken Soriano deep twice in 11 at-bats while posting a 1.765 OPS in the matchup. He hasn’t had the best series so far, but getting plunked twice yesterday could provide some added motivation for a hitter sitting on 12 home runs and batting .322. Only four players have a higher slugging percentage than Langeliers this season.

The Los Angeles Angels bullpen is also capable of cashing this HR prop. It owns the second-worst ERA on the season, and that mark has been even uglier over the last two weeks (6.60). It’s extremely fly-ball heavy, and its HR/FB rate also sits in the Bottom 3 in baseball.

• Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBC Sports California, ABTV

Today’s HR parlay

Hunter Goodman	Bet Now +10600
Corbin Carroll
Shea Langeliers

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The case for Trace: Why Chad Tracy is ready to shed the interim tag originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

WORCESTER — About a month removed from one of the most tumultuous days in Boston Red Sox history, Chad Tracy is finding his footing as the club’s interim manager. Now, the question is, will he shed the interim tag?

On April 25, Tracy was named Alex Cora’s replacement after Boston fired the longtime skipper and several members of his coaching staff, including beloved ex-Red Sox captain Jason Varitek. The stunning news broke during Triple-A Worcester’s game vs. the Syracuse Mets. Tracy left the WooSox dugout upon hearing of his promotion and joined the Red Sox in Baltimore, taking the helm just 16 hours after Cora’s departure.

Iggy Suarez, Worcester’s third base coach at the time, took over Tracy’s managerial duties.

“It’s a shock, just how everything went down,” Suarez told NBC Sports Boston. “I’m not surprised that it’s Chad Tracy getting the opportunity. I’m happy for him. I’ve kind of been on his hip for the last year and a half, seeing how he goes about his process and what he does. It’s good to see how he works. There’s no better guy right now to be in that position.

“But when that all initially happened in that Saturday game, mid-game, it was a surprise, because you obviously never think something like that is gonna happen. It was a shock, and it took us a little bit to realize what was going down, but when the dust settled a little bit, we were happy for Trace. I’m glad he’s having the opportunity.”

Since then, Tracy’s Red Sox have posted a 12-10 record. They were 10-17 at the time of Cora’s firing, so they’ve taken a small step forward since their abysmal start.

As the season continues, there surely will be questions about who should assume the official Red Sox manager position. Tracy is expected to be a leading candidate, but there presumably will be several other interesting names — some with plenty of MLB managerial experience — considered for the role.

“The only way you gain experience is by someone giving you the opportunity to get it,” WooSox hitting instructor and former Red Sox catcher Rich Gedman told NBC Sports Boston. “I think if Chad just continues to be Chad and doesn’t change because it’s the big leagues, he’ll do just fine.

“He’s a solid baseball guy, he’s a solid man. He’s as good a guy as you’re gonna get. Hopefully, the players can play for him, and he reaps the benefits of the opportunity that he has.”

A ‘genuine’ approach

One player who has spent time with both Tracy and Cora is former top prospect Kristian Campbell. The 23-year-old made Boston’s 2025 Opening Day roster after soaring through the minor league ranks, but was sent back down to Triple-A — where he remains — after experiencing growing pains in the majors.

“They’re very similar. They’re both really good managers, in my opinion,” Campbell told NBC Sports Boston. “They both know how to manage the game, they both know how to relate to the players, and they’ve both played professional baseball, so they have a lot in common. From my point of view, I had a good time with both of them, and I think they did a really good job at their job.”

Tracy, the son of former manager Jim Tracy, played eight minor-league seasons but never reached the majors. He hit .265/.336/.453 with 127 homers over 857 games in the Texas Rangers, Colorado Rockies, and Kansas City Royals organizations.

So, what makes Tracy good at his job? We’ve seen enough of his in-game management to know he looks the part, but his clubhouse presence is perhaps even more important. Leadership is in short supply in this Red Sox clubhouse, so what does Tracy bring in that department?

“He’s just a genuine person,” Suarez said. “Baseball guy, gets it, been through the grind. Kind of knows how it is to be a player through those ups and downs, and being able to communicate is for him. He’s very up front, very honest, but again, it’s genuine. It’s nothing where it’s harsh and in your face, it’s just very honest.

“I think especially at this level and at the big-league level, that’s important. Especially now, going into the situation he’s in. I think the genuineness of establishing a relationship is what makes him a great manager.

Patience paying off?

Asked to share one quality of Tracy’s that he tries to implement in his job as a manager, Suarez didn’t hesitate.

“His patience, for sure,” he answered. “I’ve managed for quite some time in A-ball, and having patience is something as a manager that you grow to learn. You never stop learning how to be patient. So, seeing him kind of handle situations in-game and still be cool, calm, and collected — to see his patience and how he’s able to kind of think through it very calmly, is something that I admire from afar.”

Campbell seconded Suarez’s assessment of Tracy’s ability to communicate effectively with players.

“He does a good job communicating every day of what he wants from us,” Campbell said. “Everybody’s different, especially when it comes to baseball. There’s different roles and different tasks that we all need to get better at, and from a development standpoint in Triple-A, there’s a lot of stuff for us to work on. I feel like he let us know what it was from the get-go.”

When Campbell was demoted to Triple-A last year, Tracy helped him get back into the right headspace.

“He was just there for me, there to back me up. Anything I needed, I could go to him and talk to him about it,” Campbell said. “But from a communication standpoint, he did a good job of telling me what he needed me to do and what he wanted me to work on and improve on when it came to offense and defense.”

Gedman, who had worked alongside Tracy since 2022, raved about his leadership ability.

“I think he’s a wonderful leader. He leads by example, he’s a straight shooter, there’s no BS with him,” the two-time All-Star said. “He’s baseball through and through, but there’s a great person in there. He’s a seasoned vet, if you will.

“He’s a hard worker, he’s a good dad. I mean, all those things when you talk about the character of a good person, I’m not sure I have enough adjectives to do the justice he deserves, but he’s a special person and if anybody has a chance to settle this down, I think he’s the type of guy.”

NBC Sports Boston

Relationship with the young core

When Tracy is evaluated for the managerial role alongside more experienced candidates, he’ll have one significant advantage. During his time in Worcester, he had already built relationships with several key Red Sox players on their roads to the majors, such as Campbell, Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Wilyer Abreu, among others. Players might prefer that familiarity over starting from scratch with a new hire.

“Just being in this organization a couple of years, having some familiarity with the players already during spring training, that’s one thing that kind of made the transition a little easier for him and gives him kind of a leg up on other candidates,” Suarez said. “There’s relationships already established. Then it’s almost like, ‘OK, let’s just play the game. Let’s do what we’ve done our whole lives.’

“Still, the big-league level is very difficult, but I think that’s the one thing he has a leg up on. The experience with the young players coming up that we’ve had here in Triple-A, and just being able to have that relationship. That’s one thing that’s gonna help him hopefully get into a situation where he’s able to get the spot up there.”

With this year’s club, Tracy has his hands full. The Red Sox offense has been among MLB’s worst, ranking 29th in runs scored (181), 29th in home runs (36), and 26th in OPS (.680). Pitching has been a strength, but that only gets you so far when you can’t score.

Optimism around the club has been hard to come by, but you can find it in Worcester. Gedman, who experienced his fair share of ups and downs during his playing career in Boston from 1980 to 1990, believes Tracy & Co. can still right the ship.

“We have not seen the best of the Boston Red Sox yet,” Gedman said. “That could happen if Alex is there or not there. But the nice part is we get to talk about Trace, who gets the opportunity. Hopefully, he can steer the ship in the right direction. You get enough guys rowing in the right direction with him, they could become who they think they’re capable of being.”

Fresh off a three-game series sweep of the Kansas City Royals, the Red Sox (22-27) will look to stay hot when they begin a three-game set against the Minnesota Twins on Friday at Fenway Park.

The New York Mets, ranked fifth in the NL East with a 21-28 record, face the Washington Nationals, who are third in the NL East with a 25-25 record. The game is essentially a pick'em, with the Mets at -115 and the Nationals at -105. Starting pitchers are David Peterson for the Mets, with a 5.40 ERA, and Cade Cavalli for the Nationals, with a 4.05 ERA.

How to watch New York Mets vs Washington Nationals

• Date: Thursday, May 21

• Time: 4:05 p.m. ET / 1:05 p.m. PT

• Where: Nationals Park, Washington, DC

• TV Channels: NATS, SNY

• Live Stream:ESPN+, MLB.TV | Follow on Yahoo Sports

Team records

• New York Mets: 21-28 (fifth in NL East)

• Washington Nationals: 25-25 (third in NL East)

Odds

• Spread: New York Mets -1.5

• Moneyline: Washington Nationals -105 (49.0%) / New York Mets -115 (51.0%)

• Over/Under: 8

Starting pitchers

New York Mets: David Peterson (2-4, ERA: 5.40, K: 46, WHIP: 1.57)

Washington Nationals: Cade Cavalli (2-2, ERA: 4.05, K: 52, WHIP: 1.54)

Weather: 64°F at first pitch

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It's a condensed schedule on a Thursday getaway day, but our expert MLB picks have still found a quartet of prices showing strong value at Polymarket.

See why our baseball experts love the Braves, Jays, and A's to come out victorious tonight... as well as the Mets and Nats going through the motions this afternoon.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Josh Inglis: NYM/WAS u8.5	-117
Jon Metler: TOR ML	+133
Neil Parker: ATL ML	-133
Joe Osborne: A's ML	-104

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: Mets/Nationals Under 8.5

Price: 54¢ (-117) at Polymarket

Let’s hammer the getaway Under with the New York Mets heading to Miami on Friday and the Washington Nationals traveling to Atlanta tonight. The weather is working in the Under’s favor as well, with 10-mph winds blowing in, 60-degree temperatures, and some projected rain in the mix. Neither team is likely eager to grind through a getaway-day game, and we could see some quick at-bats with both clubs having all of their high-leverage bullpen arms available. THE BAT also backs the Under with a fair price of -153 and just 7.56 projected runs.

Jon Metler's expert pick: Blue Jays moneyline

Price: 43¢ (+133) at Polymarket

Braydon Fisher will open for the Toronto Blue Jays, with Spencer Miles expected to handle the bulk of the innings afterward. At 43 cents, I’m more than willing to back Toronto against the New York Yankees, as I make the Blue Jays closer to 49-cent (+104) underdogs tonight. Toronto is expected to roll out a lineup featuring eight right-handed bats against Carlos Rodón, who has yet to look sharp since returning from injury, sporting a 5.63 ERA through his first two starts and still likely on a restricted pitch count. His fastball-slider combination has historically been vulnerable to right-handed power, and that issue becomes even more concerning when he isn’t at his best. The top of Toronto’s lineup, led by George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., is also very familiar with Rodón, giving the Blue Jays another edge offensively.

Neil Parker's expert pick: Braves moneyline

Price: 57¢ (-133) at Polymarket

Atlanta Braves starter Spencer Strider has allowed a single run on just four hits, while holding opposing hitters to a pedestrian 27.3% hard-hit rate, across his past two starts, and I’m anticipating him keeping the good times rolling against a ho-hum Miami Marlins lineup. The Marlins rank 19th in wOBA against right-handed arms, and Miami also ranks 20th in both overall ISO and xwOBA over the past two weeks. Of course, Atlanta has been a force at the dish all season and sits second in both runs per game and wOBA against righties.

Joe Osborne's expert pick: A's moneyline

Price: 51¢ (-104) at Polymarket

This is a great number on the Athletics tonight vs. an Angels team that has lost eight of its last nine games, with the offense bordering on embarrassing. Jose Soriano is crashing back to earth, allowing 12 earned runs and 24 baserunners across his three May starts, while Luis Severino’s numbers remain respectable outside of Sacramento, where he owns a 3.57 ERA. The biggest edge comes offensively, with the A's ranking fourth in OPS over the last two weeks... and the Angels sitting at 27th. LA’s bullpen has also been a disgrace, ranking 29th in both ERA and FIP during that span.

More MLB best bets for today

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The Toronto Blue Jays, ranked third in the AL East with a 22-27 record, face the New York Yankees, who are second in the AL East with a 30-20 record. The New York Yankees are favored with a -150 moneyline compared to the Toronto Blue Jays' +125. Starting pitchers are Braydon Fisher for Toronto, with a 3.08 ERA, and Carlos Rodón for New York, with a 5.63 ERA.

How to watch Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees

• Date: Thursday, May 21

• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET / 4:05 p.m. PT

• Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY

• TV Channels: MLB Network, YES, SN1

• Live Stream:ESPN+, MLB.TV | Follow on Yahoo Sports

Team records

• Toronto Blue Jays: 22-27 (third in AL East)

• New York Yankees: 30-20 (second in AL East)

Odds

• Spread: New York Yankees -1.5

• Moneyline: New York Yankees -150 / Toronto Blue Jays +125

• Over/Under: 8.0

Starting pitchers

Toronto Blue Jays: Braydon Fisher (2-1, ERA: 3.08, K: 24, WHIP: 1.06)

New York Yankees: Carlos Rodón (0-1, ERA: 5.63, K: 10, WHIP: 1.63)

Weather: 63°F at first pitch

Team News

Triple shy of cycle, red-hot Marte leads dominant D-backs stretch
https://www.mlb.com/dbacks/news/ketel-marte-leads-diamondbacks-to-win-over-giants

Diamondbacks sweep Giants, as Ketel Marte stays hot from walk-off heroicshttps://arizonasports.com/mlb/arizona-diamondbacks/ketel-marte-stays-hot

Diamondbacks Finish Sweep of Giants Behind Resurgent Ketel Martehttps://www.si.com/mlb/diamondbacks/onsi/diamondbacks-finish-sweep-giants-resurgent-ketel-marte

New Corbin Carroll Update Should Ease Diamondbacks Fans’ Concernshttps://www.si.com/mlb/diamondbacks/onsi/corbin-carroll-update-ease-diamondbacks-fans-concerns

‘Sick of throwing bullpens’: Burnes (UCL surgery) set to face hitters
https://www.mlb.com/dbacks/news/corbin-burnes-to-begin-throwing-to-hitters

The Path Forward for Ketel Marte and the Diamondbacks is Clearhttps://www.si.com/mlb/diamondbacks/onsi/the-path-forward-for-ketel-marte-and-the-diamondbacks-is-clear-01ks34xgz1jb

Other Baseball

Rays use 4-run eighth to beat Orioles, complete MLB-best sixth sweep while improving to 21-4 in past 25 games
https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/article/rays-use-4-run-eighth-to-beat-orioles-complete-mlb-best-sixth-sweep-while-improving-to-21-4-in-past-25-games-001219146.html

2026 top 50 MLB prospect rankings update: Made, Emerson, morehttps://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/48825315/top-50-2026-mlb-prospects-rankings-update-jesus-made-leo-de-vries-colt-emerson

Are the White Sox for real? A deep dive into baseball’s Cinderella team
https://www.mlb.com/news/white-sox-improvements-in-2026-real-or-fluke

History says you can’t score runs without power. This team is proving that wronghttps://www.mlb.com/news/brewers-scoring-runs-without-homers-in-2026

Anything Goes

This day in history:

https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/may-21

This day in baseball:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/May_21

Babies are born without kneecaps. 

Turns out, babies are as soft and delicate as they look. Babies may have more bones than the average fully-grown human, but they definitely won’t be doing any stunts anytime soon. Babies are born with a cartilaginous structure in their knees that will eventually develop into kneecaps by the time they are four years old. 

The smallest ocean is the Arctic ocean.

It is also the shallowest and the coldest ocean among the world’s five ocean basins. The Arctic ocean is about 1.5 times the size of the United States. 

A double rainbow is a mirror image of the first rainbow.

A double rainbow forms when a raindrop has two reflections where one reflection will be at an angle of 42 degrees. However, the sun’s reflection may also cause a second image off the back of the raindrop.

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Today's slate features just seven games, but I've still found value in my MLB player props. 

I'm focusing on strong showings from Spencer Strider, Ronald Acuna Jr., and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Thursday, May 21. 

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Spencer Strider	Over 5.5 strikeouts	-133
Ronald Acuna Jr.	Over 0.5 runs	-106
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Over 0.5 RBI	+185

Spencer Strider Over 5.5 strikeouts (-133)

Spencer Strider only made his season debut at the beginning of this month, but he's been lights out. The right-hander owns a 2.45 ERA through three starts, and he's struck out 18 hitters in 14 2/3 innings of work. While Strider finished with just four Ks last time out, he cashed the Over in his two other appearances, and both were on the road. 

The Miami Marlins are 12th in team strikeouts, and they're averaging 9.67 punchouts over their previous three contests. Strider hasn't faced many of these Marlins hitters before, but his swing-and-miss stuff is evident right now. He'll rack up the Ks in the series finale here. 

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: BravesVision, Marlins.TV

Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 0.5 runs (-106)

Ronald Acuna Jr. just returned from injury, and he's made an immediate impact for the Atlanta Braves. The slugger has four runs across his last two games, and he's hit the Over in runs scored in four straight. Acuna had two walks and a hit in the series opener against the Fish, and he registered another base knock on Wednesday. 

The Venezuelan will be licking his chops ahead of tonight's matchup, too. He'll face Sandy Alcantara, against whom he's hitting .342 (13-for-38) with four doubles, a triple, two home runs, and two RBI. He's also drawn eight walks vs. Alcantara, and the Braves are hitting .270 with RISP. 

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Braves.Vision, Marlins.TV

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+187)

The Toronto Blue Jays take on the New York Yankees again tonight, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be biting at the bit to step up to the plate. Carlos Rodon takes the hill, and Guerrero is 11-for-18 lifetime against the lefty with seven RBI. He's driven in a run in each of the first two games of this series as well. 

The slugger's last three RBI have all been on the road, where he's notched 13 of his 22 RBIs on the year. Rodon has had serious trouble getting Guerrero out, and it's common knowledge that the 27-year-old typically swings it well against the Bronx Bombers overall. 

• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Sportsnet, YES

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

For better, for worse, for discourse, we saw our first “piggyback” start Tuesday night. Bryce Miller, in his second appearance back from a stint on the IL, carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning versus the White Sox, looking much more 2024 than 2025. Castillo came in and gave two solid innings of relief before things fell apart in the ninth. The Mariners wound up losing the game 2-1in one of the least fun games to watch this season by far. It’s sparked plenty of discussion about what the Mariners are supposed to do with a healthy Gilbert, Kirby, Woo, Hancock, Castillo and now Miller. -NV

Nick V: I’m happy with the “piggyback” approach. I know last night, it was more Castillo out of the ‘pen than a real piggyback, but I like the idea that it’s flexible on a given night based on who’s pitching and how they’re pitching. Bryce was throwing gas and so he got to throw almost 6. But if he was starting to fade in the fourth, now Castillo gives you 4 innings. Last night was just one way it could go.

Kate: But last night was about as good as it could go minus the ninth and it was still hard on them. Did you read Bryce’s postgame comments where he said basically “Hey man, I’m just an employee here”? I just think it’s too much disruption to the starters and their routines and if they’re unhappy, they can’t do their best work. Plus, Bryce also said the whole point is to do whatever it takes to win and they didn’t even win, although that’s more on the offense I guess. But now two of your pitchers have made this sacrifice and there’s still an L on the board.

Also it must feel so crappy for whoever is getting piggybacked. Luis I think can take it in stride at this point in his career, but I’m worried this is damaging to Bryce after everything he’s been through, now he has to figure out a way to escape piggyback jail. I don’t think it’s a coincidence he took a no hitter into the fifth or sixth or wherever it was last night.

Nick: I don’t think any pitcher ever wants to come out of any game, but the point is taken. That being said, historically Bryce has averaged about 5.1 IP per start. He obviously had more in the tank last night, but that feels more an exception than a rule. I feel like the value of this approach is flexibility and mitigating risk.

Re: Bryce’s quotes, that sounds like a communication issue or a lack of a clear game plan issue by the coaching staff. They should have made it very well and clear that, for example, Bryce was never going to pitch more than six innings so empty the tank for those six innings, or whatever the plan is.

Evan: For the first time in the Dan Wilson era, I feel like the team off the field failed the players on it, and that’s very out of character for them. They’re a smart organization. They are generally more tactically sound, even if they don’t play up to it.

Eric S: It does seem like the kind of thing that lives or dies by how it’s communicated and/or sold to the starting pitchers, similar to buying into the opener approach a few seasons ago. Like no starter in their right mind prefers this approach, right? They’re all extremely confident, stubborn dudes, otherwise they would not be here pitching in MLB. They have routines, like you said. But, if team unity and buy-in by the players is strong enough, then it seems like the piggybacking approach could work as long as they actually win games. If they blow it like last night one or two more times, I’m sure they’ll have to abandon it.

Kate: I’m thinking about Bryce’s “our job is to throw however many pitches they say” comment and it strikes me how little agency there is in that statement. Which seems to directly contradict the whole “conviction” thing they drill into every starter. I’ll try to find the sticker again, Kirby has it in his locker, but it’s something like, “command, control, conviction.”

Nick: You were the one actually talking to him, though. Was his “however we need to win we will do it” seem genuine or was he hitting one of these?

Kate: I don’t doubt Bryce is willing to do whatever it takes to win, but I am not sure he thinks this is the way to win. But I might be projecting my own feelings. He was mad for sure, but I guess that could have been about the loss in general.

Connor: I think going to Ferrer for Murakami in the sixth was totally sound process.

Evan: I don’t have an issue with them using Ferrer, it just feels inconsistent with their own stated objectives. It’s weird to defer to Ferrer in the 6th but not Munoz in the 9th. That’s where if you’re doing that to “piggyback”, you lose me.

Nick: Process-wise, I agree, Connor. It’s like the whole platoon thing, I don’t like judging decisions like these based on results just because the sport is so variable, especially with how few times it happens. It is about the process. And I feel like if players are feeling a lack of agency, it’s a coaching/communication issue. I mean, even if we went to a normal pen day after 5.2, he probably is just as mad, right?

Ryan: I thought the piggyback went great honestly. I think it’s good for Miller and I think it’s the only shot Castillo has of making it to the end of the season on the roster. I’d like to see 10 Miller starts while maintaining velocity and effectiveness after each turn before letting him free. 

Evan: I think this is it. I was really pondering it this morning and the only reason this makes real sense is if they are a bit skeptical of long term Bryce and just wanna walk it all the way out.

Kate: 10 starts?! That’s nearly 3 months. I think Bryce Miller would call those 10 starts his “rehab assignment.”

John: I don’t doubt Miller and Castillo find it frustrating in this moment. I’m skeptical though that the mental alteration translates ultimately to a deleterious impact on them broadly. This is Nathan Eovaldi’s career! Seth Lugo’s, Michael Wacha’s, Michael King, etc. There are tons of guys who handled a piggyback or swingman role for a while and came out of it as good or better. And Bryce was horrible last year. For as much as we hope and believe he’ll be back to his 2024 self, he dragged the team down for months when they desperately needed him.

Kate: Lugo, Wacha, King didn’t come up in an organization that tells you if you’re not going six you are actively hurting the team, though.

John: I can’t say I know what the specific instruction was, but the 2016 Mets, 2011 Dodgers, and 2013 Cardinals had their starters going longer than the Mariners did when Miller came up. The 2019 Yankees… were not doing that in fairness, lol. Just to say tho, the M’s stand out by expecting the baseline that was expected 0.5-1 generation of pitchers ago, so I’m not sure it’s so out there compared to veteran examples.

Nick: Kate, Evan, as the two of us who are probably least happy with this approach, would you rather move to Bryce Miller as the fifth starter and Castillo as a reliever? If so, what role do you see him playing? Swingman, higher leverage?

Evan: Yes. And it aligns with the positive things people saw last night from both guys. The people who feel it went well I think are expressing positivity about Castillo’s first two innings and only second ever non-start, which is super valid. I think just letting him roll with that is the way to go without being beholden to this other, less consistent ruleset they applied last night. Get the best from Bryce, the best from Luis, prioritize winning the game! And if they gotta stretch Luis back out in a few weeks, we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it. If you can get 4 innings from Castillo over two appearances a week as opposed to 5 innings in a start, that’s a fine trade for where we’re at.

Gotty: Luis going from 97 to 94 between innings is concerning and makes me think he’d be best suited to a one-inning role if they go the bullpen route.

Evan: Honestly, if that’s the case, even better. Dan loves 1 inning stints, why complicate anything?

Kate: I’d rather them go to a six man rotation. I understand the argument against is your best pitchers pitch less but I think because there’s no extreme cliff between the front and back end of this rotation and I would argue even the best have been very inconsistent this year it doesn’t matter in the end and might be beneficial. It does force you to a shorthanded bullpen but I think that’s solvable with Criswell, or you have a starter be a swing guy, in this case Castillo.

Evan: I actually completely agree with the six-man. I’d do one thing or the other though. Not the other third thing they tried last night. 

Nick: I’m okay with that, I suppose. I think that the idea of the piggyback is you’re able to get more out of your two guys, because they have to go less often, so instead of having two of them be, on average, just okay, for a total of ⅓ of the team’s starts, you can have them max out for one of the starts. I still think that it worked, and should be given a couple more times to be explored more fully. So actually I change my mind, I think six-man is actually the worst of all worlds, honestly. 

Anders: I think if you were to get an honest answer from Jerry and Dan they’d say they don’t plan to run the six man or piggyback out forever and it would probably be more convenient for them if Castillo was good and Miller and/or Hancock was not (rather than the reverse). Castillo being bad and the others being good makes it so complicated. 

Following game 43, I did some digging and saw that every full-season Cub team going back to 2003 had at least one five-game losing streak. So while this streak feels like it came out of nowhere, it’s not all that out of the ordinary. The good Cub teams in that stretch had a streak at least this long and the bad ones did too. So there isn’t anything particularly predictive based on a five-game skid. The 2003 Cubs that didn’t do that had a 1-5 rotation that was exceptional in comparison to the league and particularly 1-3. The only other team in my lifetime when the Cubs had a rotation that dominant 1-3 was the 2016 Cubs and they managed to have a five-game skid anyway.

This game was the first one that flashed me back in a bad way. This loss felt like something straight out of the 2021 Cub season when the final unraveling of the championship group happened. You’ll recall that team actually started pretty good, though not this year good. That team was 42-33 after 75 games and looked like they might be able to make one more run. Famously, that ended with the team no-hitter in L.A. And then they immediately lost 11 straight. The notorious game of that stretch was a game in Milwaukee where the Cubs jumped out early and then cratered and ended up losing 15-7.

This flashed me back there. Not just a sweep at the hands of the Brewers, but looking totally inept. The Brewers are good. Perhaps better than the Cubs. They had the better record last season and won a playoff series from the Cubs. They have the better record now and just swept the Cubs. Frankly, you have to be pretty stubborn to make a case for the Cubs being better. The Brewers are certainly in the collective heads of these Cubs right now. This was pretty ugly. But they aren’t as much better than the Cubs as they looked in this series. These three games looked about what it might look like if you played a couple of tune-up games against your Triple-A team.

I’m not particularly a fire and brimstone guy, an advocate of closed door or player-only meetings. I think fans have given almost mythical power through the years to things that probably happen more often than we have any idea of and probably don’t have a high correlation with forward looking success. That said, I do obviously believe that a good weight room pep talk by the usually quiet team leader will always lead to a World Championship. So quiet leader better pull everyone together when the team gets to the park on Friday and gets everyone back on the same page.

All sarcasm and joking aside, there was nothing fun or funny in this one. The Cubs got their tails kicked culminating a horrible series on the backs of three not so good series. A 3-6 road trip has now become nine losses in 12 games. Almost half of the cushion the team built up has evaporated. This team needs to apply the brakes, get back to basics and start making plays defensively that they should be making and moving the line offensively like they can.

Three Positives:

• Trent Thornton retired all five batters he faced, striking out two.
• Hoby Milner faced four batters and retired all of them, striking out one.
• Ryan Rolison faced five batters and retired all of them, striking out one.

I’m positive I’ve not singled out three relievers on any game this year. The Cub bullpen had to throw six innings and they did so allowing only one run. That’s real good against a team like the Brewers. Four hits and two walks over six, we’d be ecstatic if a starter did that. So hat tip to the collective bullpen.

Game 50, May 20: Brewers 5, Cubs 0 (29-21)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Nico Hoerner (.045). 1-4, 2B
• Hero: Trent Thornton (.032). 1.2 IP, 5 BF, 2K
• Sidekick: Hoby Milner/Seiya Suzuki (.018). Milner: 1.1 IP, 4 BF, K; Suzuki: 0-2, BB

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Edward Cabrera (-.254). 3 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 R, 1 ER, 2 K (L 3-2)
• Goat: Alex Bregman (-.098). 1-4
• Kid: Carson Kelly (-.060). 0-3

WPA Play of the Game: David Hamilton’s Little League homer with runners on first and second and one out in the second. It was legitimately a single and three base error. I’m not sure I’ve ever watched an outfielder slump before, but this has been jarring. (.233)

Cubs Play of the Game: Nico Hoerner led off the bottom of the first with a double. (.060)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 49 Winner: Nico Hoerner 105 of 125 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Michael Busch +16
• Michael Conforto +14
• Nico Hoerner +12.5
• Shōta Imanaga +10
• Trent Thornton +6
• Ryan Rolison -8
• Phil Maton -9
• Matt Shaw -10
• Dansby Swanson -11
• Seiya Suzuki -17.5

Current Win Pace: 93.96 wins

Up Next: An off day Thursday that is very much needed. Then, they face the worst team (by record) that the Cubs have seen in quite some time. The Astros are 20-31 and managed only six runs in losing two of three to the Twins in Minnesota. Jameson Taillon (2-3, 4.97, 50.2 IP) is due for the Cubs. He has lost his last two starts and was tagged for eight earned runs against the White Sox over five innings of work. He’s been significantly better at home (3.63 v 6.04) and during the day (4.15 v 6.20). So this is as good a spot for Jameson to bounce back as we can find.

As I write, the Astros haven’t yet announced their weekend rotation. But I believe this spot should fall to 26-year old Spencer Arrighetti (5-1, 1.50, 36 IP). Arrighetti would be making his seventh start of the season. The Astros have occasionally employed a six man rotation as they, like so many other teams, struggle with injuries to pitchers. The sixth-round pick of the Astros in 2021 (178th overall) out of Louisiana-Lafayette threw 7.1 scoreless innings against the Rangers last Friday. He allowed just one hit while walking four. He has 35 strikeouts in his 36 innings of work but has also walked 21. This is the kind of guy the Cubs should get to, despite his really good numbers. Some walks and a timely hit or two.

The Astros lineup has been fairly good. They rank ninth in team OPS (.725). That doesn’t drop against right-handed pitching (.728). It also doesn’t drop on the road (.748). So this is no pushover for Taillon. The problem for the Astros has been their pitching (last in ERA at 5.34). Their starting pitching has been a little less bad (5.02) but their bullpen is a mess (5.72).

This is the kind of series where the Cub strategy offensively should work. Patience and persistence. Death by a thousand paper cuts. Get their starters out, get into the pen. Their relievers still strike out a fair number of hitters, but they sport a number of unsightly ERAs and most of them allow more than a hit per inning. There are a few WHIPs north of 2.00.

The turn around starts here.

Go Cubs!

It wouldn’t be a day without a roster move, right? Right?

Carlos Carrasco returns to Atlanta for the third time this season. He pitched an inning in late April and was DFAed six days later, then re-added in early May, pitched another frame, and was DFAed the next day. And, after signing a minor league deal afterwards, he’s back again. He returns to a pretty good line across garnering six outs in the majors, and he’s also been carving up minor leaguers in Triple-A, but that’s not really surprising given his age and experience.

Victor Mederos threw two garbage time innings after Chris Sale fileted / flayed the Marlins. On the plus side, he went six up, six down. On the minus side, he had an 0/1 K/BB ratio in the process, leveraging a double play to face the minimum.

This is a pretty low-stakes move just to have a fresh arm in case tonight’s game is another blowout, but they can’t all be the giant roster mishigas that happened earlier this week (with Drake Baldwin to the Injured List and Aaron Bummer getting the boot), either.