David Stearns has earned high marks for his ability to find undervalued talent as the Mets’ president of baseball operations, but the pressing question now is whether he can make the trades in the coming weeks that his slumping team may well need to re-establish realistic championship hopes.
Three weeks ago it appeared the Mets might only be shopping for bullpen upgrades as the trade deadline looms at the end of this new month. But their current 3-13 stretch has exposed flaws in all areas of the ballclub, making the case that Stearns should be aggressive to trying to find three significant pieces:
1) A quality starting pitcher, with potential options ranging from Sandy Alcantara to the likes of Luis Severino and Merrill Kelly.
2) An impact hitter, ideally either at 3B or CF, with possibilities such as Eugenio Suarez, Alex Bregman, Jarren Duran, or Cedric Mullins.
3) A solid bullpen arm, perhaps Jake Bird, David Bednar, or Kyle Finnegan.
Is making three such deals too much to ask? It’s probably way out of Stearns’ comfort zone, as he has indicated a reluctance to part with top prospects, but the Mets’ farm system is built up enough, especially if you include their young major leaguers, that they should have enough trade capital for such a task.
“There could be some attractive players available,” one NL team executive told me. “It will take some time to shake out. That third Wild Card spot keeps more teams in the mix a lot longer now, so it’s hard to get aggressive in early July.
“But the Mets are an intriguing case. You’re pretty much all-in once you sign (Juan) Soto to that contract. But how much are they willing to give up? The word I’d use to describe David is measured. He’s very measured. So I think a lot of people in the industry will be curious to see if he goes for it, and to what degree.”
Stearns still has a few weeks before making such a call, and plenty could happen to diminish the Mets’ needs.
If Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga are back and pitching well enough to make the starting rotation a force again, the Mets might look only to add a depth starter. Or perhaps no starter if they believe top pitching prospects Nolan McLean, Brandon Sproat, and Blade Tidwell, who starts Wednesday vs. the Milwaukee Brewers, can help them in the second half.
Similarly, if Mark Vientos finds his ’24 form at the plate they could decide they don’t need an impact bat. Same goes if Brett Baty and/or Ronny Mauricio break through in a big way, perhaps pushing Jeff McNeil into more of a regular role in center field.
And then there is Francisco Alvarez. If he fights his way back from the minors and provides the power the Mets expected, that too could change the equation.
But right now all of that may be mostly wishful thinking, based on the ups and downs those young players have experienced this season.
Finally, if Brooks Raley finishes up his rehab outings, makes it all the way back and quickly finds his pre-elbow surgery form, he’d provide a huge lift for a bullpen that badly misses fellow left-hander A.J. Minter.
Suffice to say that makes for a lot of ifs, too many considering the way the Mets have been playing.
And while it’s understandable that the injuries in the starting rotation caught up with them, the big surprise is the failure of the offense to deliver with any consistency, especially with runners in scoring position.
In fact, the clutch issue has been such a constant theme that Steve Cohen undoubtedly became the first owner in baseball history to specifically reference RISP in a tweet, noting Monday that “it’s unlikely the team’s hitting with RISP will continue at this weak pace.”
For that matter, he may be the only owner that tweets at all, but you get the idea. And Cohen may be right, but it’s not such a small sample size at this point, with the Mets ranking 29th in the majors in batting average with RISP.
Maybe a Jesse Winker return from injury will help in that regard, but if this is who the Mets are offensively, getting very little production from the lower part of the lineup, Stearns may be forced to shop for a hitter with more urgency than he ever expected.
Suarez, the Arizona Diamondbacks’ third baseman, looms as the ideal candidate. He’s having a big year with 26 home runs and a .894 OPS, and he’s a free agent after this season which should make him less pricey in terms of prospects.
However, contenders like the Detroit Tigers and Chicago Cubs have indicated interest in trading for Suarez to fill their own needs at third base, so that could raise his price beyond what a rental normally would get.
Also, there’s no guarantee the D-backs will sell. At 42-42, Arizona are on the fringe of Wild Card contention and likely would have to slide a bit further to deal Suarez.
If not him, the Red Sox could become a focal point. At 42-44 they’re only three games out of a Wild Card spot and also probably would have to slide, though after trading Rafael Devers they seem committed to their youth movement, which could lead them dealing Bregman and/or Duran.
Finally, the Baltimore Orioles, 10 games under .500, almost certainly will make Mullins available, as he is a free agent after this season. He’s not having a big year but as a left-handed hitting center fielder with speed and some pop, Mullins certainly could be a good fit, perhaps in a platoon with Tyrone Taylor.
As for pitching, Alcantara is the big fish, despite his 6.98 ERA. In his first season back from Tommy John surgery, the right-hander hasn’t had his Cy Young award-winning dominance, but he has pitched better in recent weeks and teams likely would be willing to bet he’ll continue to improve.
That and two more years of team control at a reasonable salary probably will make for a high asking price.
Others like the ex-Met Severino, who openly admitted he doesn’t like pitching in his home ballpark in Sacramento, German Marquez of the Rockies, Kelly or Zac Gallen of the D-backs, and perhaps lefty Tyler Anderson of the Angels, all would likely come at a lower cost.
Where the Mets are as a team around the July 31st trade deadline likely will determine how much is too much for Stearns. His “measured’’ style might rule the day, no matter what.
But if his team doesn’t suddenly fix its flaws and get hot again, Stearns will be under tremendous pressure to act boldly to save the season -- it should be fascinating to see how he handles it.
