It’s another busy Sunday in the majors, and there are plenty of juicy MLB player props to choose from.
My MLB home run picks for Sunday, May 24, feature Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Schwarber.
Keep reading for my full analysis.
UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
Player to hit a HR
Odds
Shohei Ohtani
+250
Kyle Schwarber
+325
Jordan Walker
+335
đź’˛Today's HR parlay
+6370
Home run pick: Shohei Ohtani (+250)
Shohei Ohtani seems to be finally turning the corner. The reigning NL MVP has not put up his usual eye-popping numbers this season, but he’s been in a groove over the past few weeks.
Over his past nine games, the Los Angeles Dodgers superstar leads the majors in batting average (.467), wxOBA (.530), and sits second in slugging percentage (.867).
Ohtani will enjoy a favorable matchup against Milwaukee Brewers starter Brandon Sproat. The right-hander has allowed at least one dinger in four of his last five starts and carries a massive 5.75 ERA this season.
Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: SportsNet LA, Brewers.TV
Home run pick: Kyle Schwarber (+325)
Kyle Schwarber remains the only man to reach the 20-home run mark this season, thanks to a run of nine dingers in an eight-game span earlier this month. The Philadelphia Phillies slugger is due to add to his homer totals today vs. the Cleveland Guardians.
Parker Messick got off to a solid start in his second MLB season, but the Guardians starter has stumbled in May, getting rocked for five home runs over his last four outings.
Oddsmakers are finally adjusting for Jordan Walker’s power, but the St. Louis Cardinals slugger still provides solid value at +335 — especially with Brady Singer on the mound.
The right-hander has given up a whopping six dingers over his last two starts, and two or more homers in four of his last five.
Walker has gone yard in two straight games and will be hitting out of Great American Ballpark, which has the third-highest Park Factor in the MLB (103).
The Cardinals slugger has feasted on right-handed pitching as well, batting .311 with 11 of his 15 home runs coming vs. righties.
Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: One National or Two local
Chris Faria's 2026 Transparency Record
HR picks: 6-15, +6.14 units
Today’s HR parlay
Shohei Ohtani
Bet Now +6370
Kyle Schwarber
Jordan Walker
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Head to NBCSN and Peacock this Sunday for an exciting slate of MLB action. Coverage begins at 12:00 PM ET with an MLBSunday Leadoff showdown featuring the Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays. Then, at 7:00 PM ET, it’s the Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels on Sunday Night Baseball. See below for additional information on how to stream both games.
The Blue Jays enter Sunday’s matchup sizzling, riding a season-high four-game winning streak following Saturday’s 5-2 victory against Pirates’ ace Paul Skenes. They have rode this wave on the strength of their pitching and defense, allowing just five runs in total during this four-game stretch.
Going for the sweep on Sunday, the Jays will give the ball to their ace, Dylan Cease. The 30-year-old right-hander has been exceptional in his first season in a Jays’ uniform, registering a 2.98 ERA and leading the American League with 84 strikeouts in 57 1/3 innings through his first 10 starts.
The Pirates are heading in the opposite direction. They enter play on Sunday as losers of two straight and six of their last eight. That brings them back to the .500 mark for the season at 26-26. That unfortunately puts them in the cellar in the extremely competitive National League Central division and has them three games back of a potential Wild Card berth.
The Pirates will turn to right-hander Mitch Keller to stop the slide on Sunday. The 30-year-old hurler is off to the best start of his career through his first 10 starts, sitting at 4-2 with a 3.86 ERA across 58 1/3 innings.
Former All-Star reliever Matt Capps and World Series champion outfielder Dexter Fowler will join play-by-play voice Dave Flemming and reporter John Fanta on this week’s edition of MLB Sunday Leadoff.
How to watch Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays:
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The 2025-26 season was a successful one for Philadelphia Flyers prospect Alex Bump. The 22-year-old forward played in his first 17 career NHL games this campaign, where he had five goals and nine points. He also played in six playoff games for Philadelphia, where he scored two goals.Â
Overall, Bump showed plenty of promise during his first chance on the Flyers' roster. He also played well while in the AHL with the Lehigh Valley Phantoms this season, posting 11 goals and 26 points in 36 games. With this, there is a lot to like about the 2022 fifth-round pick's play so far.Â
However, now that Bump has gotten a taste of NHL action and has finished his first full professional season split between the NHL and AHL, it is clear that he is a prime breakout candidate to watch next season for the Flyers.Â
The potential for Bump to emerge as a key part of the Flyers' forward group is there, and it would not be surprising if he takes another big step in the right direction next season because of it. He is one of the Flyers' most promising prospects, and it is going to be interesting to see if he can hit a new level in 2026-27.Â
The Buffalo Sabres are entering this off-season with multiple important players due for new contracts, like Alex Tuch, Zach Benson, and Peyton Krebs. With this, the Sabres will have some decisions to make when it comes to their roster.
The Sabres may need to free up some cap space if they want to keep all of their top players this summer. Because of this, let's look at a few players who have the potential to be dealt this summer.Â
Jordan GreenwayÂ
If the Sabres want to free up some cap space, they could look to move a forward like Jordan Greenway. While his physicality makes him a nice part of the Sabres' bottom six, his $4 million cap hit is expensive for his role. In 40 games this season, he had one goal, five assists, and 57 hits.Â
Michael KesselringÂ
Michael Kesselring is a pending restricted free agent the Sabres could look to deal. The fit was simply not there this season for Kesselring and the Sabres, and he was scratched often during the playoffs. In 34 games this season for Buffalo, he had zero goals and two assists. He also played in just one playoff game.Â
Devon LeviÂ
Devon Levi has been in the rumor mill often already now that the Sabres' playoff run is over. With the Sabres having multiple goalies ahead of him on their depth chart, there simply isn't a path for Levi on Buffalo's roster right now. Due to this, it would make sense if they moved him this off-season and gave him a much-needed fresh start.
Dec 9, 2024; Dallas, TX, USA; Philadelphia Phillies general manager Preston Mattingly speaks with the MLB Network at the Hilton Anatole during the 2024 MLB Winter Meetings. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
They’ve been trying to do it for years with players that have been posted from Japan. Failed pursuits of Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Roki Sasaki have resulted in the Phillies ramping up their attempts to bring someone from one of Japan, Korea or some other international baseball league to the team. This weekend, they were successful.
Signed & sealed✍️ Welcome to the Phillies family, Chan-Min Park!
We have signed Korean RHP prospect Chan-Min Park as part of our 2026 International Signing Class. pic.twitter.com/MZAGqfO0Ua
— Phillies Player Development (@PhilsPlayerDev) May 23, 2026
Park operates with a 91-93 mph fastball that has touched as high as 94. He can pound the zone with the offering and it has late ride, allowing him to blow it past more inexperienced batters. Working with a clean and repeatable delivery from a three-quarters slot, he pounds right-handed hitters in with some added sink to his heater.
His best secondaries are a pair of breaking balls in a curveball and slider. They’re presently just solid pitches, but could develop into plus in time, particularly the slide piece, which has already generated spin rates north of 2800 RPMs while sitting 78-82 mph. He has both a changeup and splitter in his arsenal, but has largely backpocketed the latter. Park likes to throw the cambio to both right and left-handed batters and it shows promise as a future putaway offering.
The team now has several high profile additions to their international group with Park and Francisco Renteria. It’s a good step in the right direction.
Apr 16, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; New York Mets pitcher A.J. Minter (33) reacts during the eighth inning against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images | Matt Krohn-Imagn Images
Meet the Mets
The Mets’ bats failed to get anything going in Miami for the second straight day, held to just three hits as the Mets fell to the Marlins 4-1. Despite pitching a season high seven innings, Freddy Peralta took the loss and Miami righty Max Meyer improved to 5-0 on the season with seven scoreless innings of work.
Righty Jonathan Pintaro was recalled from Triple-A Syracuse yesterday and Zach Thornton was sent back down.
Both Jared Young and A.J. Minter are nearing a return for the Mets.
Devin Gordon reflects on Mets fandom for the New York Times in what is likely to be another losing season.
Around the National League East
The Nationals shut out the Braves 2-0 in the other intra-division matchup yesterday. Jake Irvin struck out seven over five no-hit innings and Dylan Crews launched his first home run of the season for Washington. The Braves managed just one hit in the contest.
The Phillies blanked the Guardians 3-0 behind six shutout innings from Zack Wheeler.
Wheeler, who gave up just two hits in the game, has dropped his arm angle 15 degrees incrementally over the past five years. And the change has worked for him.
The Phillies signed Korean right-hander Chan-Min Park, thanks to extra international bonus pool money they acquired in trade that allowed them to make an aggressive offer that tempted Park to bypass a career in the KBO.
Around Major League Baseball
The Angels signed Taijuan Walker, who was recently released by the Phillies, to a minor league deal.
Thomas Harrigan of MLB.com went through eight early-season surprises that seem like they might be for real, like the Rays’ strong run of play and the powerful offenses of the Nationals and Pirates.
Benches cleared at Fenway in 4-2 Red Sox loss to the Twins after a home plate collision between Willson Contreras and former teammate Victor Caratini.
This Date in Mets History
On this date in 1973, the Mets won a marathon 19-inning contest against the Dodgers in Los Angeles that went well past 4:00am ET.
There are 16 games on deck today and endless MLB player props to choose from. Luckily for you, I’ve narrowed them down to my three best bets.
Dylan Cease, Shohei Ohtani, and Jordan Walker highlight my MLB picks for Sunday, May 24.
Best MLB player props today
Player
Pick
Odds
Dylan Cease
Over 8.5 strikeouts
+106
Shohei Ohtani
Over 1.5 total bases
+101
Jordan Walker
Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
-156
Dylan Cease Over 8.5 strikeouts (+106)
There hasn’t been a lot to love about the Toronto Blue Jays so far this season, but Dylan Cease is one of the only exceptions.
The right-hander is third in the majors with 84 strikeouts, racking up Over 8.5 strikeouts in each of his last three starts.
Cease ranks in the 97th percentile in Whiff % (36.5), thanks to his changeup (58.8 Whiff %) and slider (47.8 Whiff %).
The Pittsburgh Pirates have the fourth-most strikeouts per game (9.27) and are batting just .204 and .225 against the changeup and slider, respectively.
Time: 12:15 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Sportsnet, NBCSN/Peacock
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases (+101)
Shotime might officially be back, ladies and gentlemen.
Shohei Ohtani enters Sunday on a nine-game hit streak, with Over 1.5 total bases in eight of those contests. His home run numbers may not be there, but he’s still smashing the baseball, ranking in the 95th percentile in barrel % (17.2).
The Los Angeles Dodgers star will feast on a struggling Milwaukee Brewers starter in Brandon Sproat, who has a bloated 1.50 WHIP this season after allowing 38 hits in 40 2/3 innings.
This Brewers bullpen won’t be able to contain Ohtani either, sporting a mediocre 1.32 WHIP.
Jordan Walker has been heavily involved in the action, recording two dingers, three runs, four hits, and seven RBI so far this series. He’s also hitOver 1.5 hits + runs + RBI in three straight games overall.
Reds starter Brady Singer has a massive 8.47 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in May, which sets up another big day for Walker and the Cardinals.
Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Cardinals.TV, Reds.TV
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Dylan Cease continues to give hitters trouble in the batter's box, and I’m expecting another strikeout-filled outing against this Pittsburgh Pirates lineup.
Read on to see why with my Blue Jays vs. Pirates predictions and MLB picks this afternoon.
Pirates vs Blue Jays predictions
Pirates vs Blue Jays best bet: Dylan Cease Over 7.5 strikeouts (-160)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have struck out 23 times already in the first two games of the series. I’m expecting strikeout merchant Dylan Cease to continue mowing down batters in this matchup.
He’s gone Over today’s posted total of 7.5 strikeouts with 9+ strikeouts in three straight outings. He's second in K/9 this season, averaging 8.1 strikeouts per start, while also ranking in the 97th percentile in whiff rate.
That should match well today against a swing-happy Pirates lineup, which owns the fifth-highest whiff rate in baseball. They have the fourth-highest team strikeout rate at 24%.
COVERS INTEL: Dylan Cease owns a 31.8% strikeout rate against this current Pirates lineup.
Pirates vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
George Springer is heating up, riding a six-game hitting streak, while going 2-for-5 against Pirates starter Mitch Keller in his career. He’s also scored in three straight games and in four of his last six outings. I’ll take him to go Over 0.5 runs today.
Jesus Sanchez is quietly on a lengthy hitting streak of his own, recording a hit in six straight games and in 10 of his last 11 outings. He also ranks in the 88th percentile in xBA. I’ll add Over 0.5 hits for Sanchez as the final leg of my SGP.
Pirates vs Blue Jays SGP
Dylan Cease Over 7.5 strikeouts
George Springer Over 0.5 hits
Jesus Sanchez Over 0.5 hits
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Get the best Jays ML odds at BET99 — every game.
Pirates vs Blue Jays home run pick: George Springer (+405)
This Toronto Blue Jays offense has picked up recently, but we’re still waiting on consistent power, so we’ll make this a half-unit wager. However, Pirates starter Mitch Keller has surrendered a home run in each of his last three starts.
So how about another Springer dinger? The Jays outfielder is starting to find a groove at the plate with a hit in six straight games, homering three times in that stretch.
2026 Transparency record
Best bets: 23-27, +0.55 units
SGPs: 10-40, +0.6 units
HR picks: 8-42, +2.15 units
Pirates vs Blue Jays odds
Moneyline: Pittsburgh +145 | Toronto -170
Run line: Pittsburgh +1.5 (-155) | Toronto -1.5 (+130)
Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)
Pirates vs Blue Jays trend
The Blue Jays have covered the first five innings run line in eight of their last nine games for +6.9 units and a 68% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Blue Jays.
How to watch Pirates vs Blue Jays and game info
Location
Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
Date
Sunday, May 24, 2026
First pitch
12:15 p.m. ET
TV
Sportsnet
Pirates starting pitcher
Mitch Keller (4-2, 3.86 ERA)
Blue Jays starting pitcher
Dylan Cease (3-2, 2.98 ERA)
Pirates vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Pirates vs Blue Jays weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
A day of joy, distress and emotional farewells saw West Ham go down, Pep Guardiola go out, and Arsenal’s Champagne go pop
Pep Guardiola has a chat with Sky:
I’m good. Trying to focus on the game. It’s not easy, with many things happening around it. Not just me, Bernardo and John and some people from the staff. But yeah, try to enjoy, with my family, and an amount of people that I love.
There’s a football game, and we don’t want to make a bad last game. I’d have loved to have the chance today to play against Arsenal, but there are a lot of things around.
Now is the time, I’m pretty sure. Once we announced I thought, maybe I was wrong. The past has been really good with us, but the future will be better without me. You have to have a special energy..
João Palhinha’s goal ensured Tottenham Hotspur stayed up and banished West Ham to the Championship
Roberto De Zerbi has been out on the pitch waving his arms about in an extremely exuberant style, exhorting the fans to make the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium a cauldron in terms of atmosphere as well as temperature. It’s 30 degrees out there, with little or no wind. UV level high. Seek shade, wear sunscreen. And stay hydrated!
… and at the risk of turning this MBM into some sort of retro-relegation compendium, here’s Gary Naylor. “I was there in 1994,” he writes of Everton’s 1994 scrape with ignominy, requiring to beat Wimbledon on the last day only to go two down after ten minutes. “It was, and is, my favourite game. You’ve got to embrace it. There’ll be Tottenham or West Ham fans feeling the same come 6pm.”
The Montreal Canadiens managed to force overtime against the Carolina Hurricanes on Saturday night despite the home team dominating the game. Martin St-Louis’ men were just one goal away from taking a 2-0 lead back home to Montreal, but in the end, it wasn’t to be. If the coach didn’t go all out for the win with his forward selection early in extra time, he did have standout defenseman Lane Hutson out early, and the choice might have backfired.
As Hutson was retrieving a puck by the boards deep in the zone, Hurricanes forward Taylor Hall came in for a hit, but his knee caught Hutson’s knee before the defenseman fell to the ice. The look on the blueliner’s face as he got up and went back to the bench was quite telling; he didn’t like the hit, and he was visibly in some discomfort, slamming the door of the bench shut.
Losing Hutson’s mobility and offensive instinct would be disastrous for the Canadiens. The defenseman is second on the team in points (and 10th overall in the league) with 14 in 16 games, and while he hasn’t been on the scoreboard in the first two games against Carolina, he’s still been a force for the Habs.
While the blueliner is quite shifty on the ice and often manages to elude hits, he took the full force of the Hall hit, and the point of contact is a worry. On top of being a minute muncher, he quarterbacks the Canadiens' first power-play units and is called upon on the penalty kill. The Michigan native is a jack of all trades for the Habs, and his loss could equate to that of Cale Makar for the Colorado Avalanche.
The Canadiens will not be practicing today, but there will be a media availability at the team’s hotel at 10:00 AM. Hopefully, we will get some information on Hutson’s status then.
Edit: St-Louis confirms Hutson is fine.
Lane Hutson wasn’t happy after Taylor Hall stuck out his knee on a hit along the boards during OT pic.twitter.com/43zFbRFbP2
Two former members of the Vancouver Canucks have taken big steps in their respective post-NHL careers, both of which centre around industries in the arts sector.
Aaron Volpatti, who spent nearly three years with the Canucks from the 2010–11 season to 2012–13, released his first country music song on Friday. Titled “A Beer A Day,” the song features sharp strums of a guitar and the occasional rattle of a tambourine.
Music isn’t the only field Volpatti has explored since retiring from the NHL due to injury after stints with the Canucks and the Washington Capitals. The forward released his bookFighter: Defying the NHL Odds back in 2022, detailing his journey to the NHL after sustaining fatal burns in a tragic incident.
Volpatti wasn’t the only Canuck to have revealed a neat detail about their post-NHL career this weekend, however. In an article by Kevin Forsyth ofPenticton Western News, former Canucks goaltender Richard Brodeur revealed that he will be taking the next step in his painting career by opening an art gallery.
Dec 7, 2019; Vancouver, British Columbia, CAN; Vancouver Canucks alumni Darcy Rota and Richard Brodeur, and Stan Smyl, and Harold Snepts, and Thomas Gradin are honored before the start of the first period against the Buffalo Sabres at Rogers Arena. Mandatory Credit: Anne-Marie Sorvin-USA TODAY Sports
Brodeur’s painting journey has been fairly well-documented in previous years, with the former goaltender visiting various towns and cities around BC to showcase his art. Now, Brodeur’s art will have a permanent home at Gallery 35, located in Parksville on Vancouver Island. The gallery is set to open later next week, on May 30.
On the ice, Brodeur spent eight seasons with the Canucks, including taking part in Vancouver’s first-ever Stanley Cup Final appearance in 1982. He finished his time with the Canucks with an overall record of 126–173–62, including a career-best 21 wins in 1982–83.
Make sure you bookmark THN's Vancouver Canucks site and add us to your favourites on Google News for the latest news, exclusive interviews, breakdowns, and so much more. Also, don't forget to leave a comment at the bottom of the page and engage with other passionate fans through our forum. This article originally appeared on The Hockey News.
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ANAHEIM, CA - APRIL 07: Los Angeles Angels designated hitter Jorge Soler (12) is held back by Los Angeles Angels shortstop Zach Neto (9), Los Angeles Angels pitching coach Mike Maddux and Atlanta Braves manager Walt Weiss after he charged the mound during the MLB game between the Atlanta Braves and the Los Angeles Angels on April 7, 2026 at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, CA. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Do you know the last game when the Atlanta Braves weren’t in first place by the end of the day? Do you know when Walt Weiss tackled Jorge Soler? If you know one then you know the other. Let’s go back to April 7th.
I don’t know that it saved the season. But for the first twelve games, the Braves were 7-5 and underperforming their xwOBA by .005. Since that point, they’re 29-12 and outrunning their xwOBA by .007. That works out to a wRC+ advantage of 9 before and after. They’re definitely managing to keep the HR/FB monster in its cage. They’re doing a tremendous job getting a song out of Martin Perez, Grant Holmes, and even Chadwick Tromp. But this dustup didn’t do Reynaldo Lopez any favors. He would blow up two weeks later in Washington, and hasn’t approached his 2024 form this season.
So did the Walt Weiss tackle save the season? I mean, no, but one thing that Walt Weiss has been doing is pursuing wins. He chases those down in the same manner that he chased down Jorge Soler in Anaheim. The Braves are up by 9.5 games in the NL East Division. Let’s hope that they run away from everyone.
ST LOUIS, MISSOURI - MAY 16: Alec Burleson #41 of the St. Louis Cardinals celebrates during a game against the Kansas City Royals at Busch Stadium on May 16, 2026 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Joe Puetz/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The St. Louis Cardinals have passed every test thrown their way so far and are in the midst of another as they take on the NL Central in all but one series over the next two-plus weeks. How the rest of May ends up could tell us whether our expectations have shifted for what was supposed to be a rebuild year as the Cardinals could realistically be in first or last in the division by the first weekend of June. By that time, we will be more than 1/3 of the way through the season and I believe we can officially shift away from the overused small sample size arguments, if you have not already.
As we gain clarity on our true expectations for this season, I do not believe we are yet in the middle of the next great Cardinals team, although there are likely pieces here that will be involved with that next iteration of greatness. While we can figure JJ Wetherholt, Jordan Walker, and possibly Ivan Herrera and Masyn Winn will be key cogs for that era, Alec Burleson may just miss the cut simply by being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Despite being one of the most consistent and dependable hitters on the roster, Burly’s age and position could have him out of St. Louis before he is able to see the fruits of his labor ripen up.
I originally had this article asking if Burleson is still underrated, but decided to make the change to under appreciated because of the things he does that the rest of the league may not understand by simply reading the stats. Burleson was a second round pick in the 2020 draft (a draft that only the Cardinals can be proud of), and made his major league debut just two years later. That is already impressive for a guy that maxed out as the Cardinals’ 10th-best prospect by MLB Pipeline, but even more so is the fact that he has not played a game in the minors since his first promotion.
Each year, he has taken his offense to the next level, going from a .691 OPS in his first full big league season in 2023 to now sitting at an .827 OPS before the Reds series after coming off a utility Silver Slugger award last year. His numbers improve every year, raising his OPS+, walk rate, and production stats on a per rate basis since he did miss time last year with injury. What has surprisingly gone in the wrong direction, however, is his value as a defender. Since breaking into the league, the lefty slugger has spent time in left field, right field, and first base, with more time at the cold corner last season than his previous three seasons combined. With Paul Goldschmidt and Willson Contreras manning first base during Burly’s tenure, there simply were not enough innings to go around to Burleson until this year.
Alec Burleson’s underrated defense is tanking his overall value in an unfair way
After the still heartbreaking (to me) trade of Contreras, Burly has unofficially retired his outfield glove for the big pancake glove at first and, to the eye test, has been a solid contributor with the leather. When the eye test meets analytical measures, however, Burleson has technically been one of the worst defenders at first in all of baseball. Over the past two seasons, Burleson has spent 89 games at first base and according to FanGraphs, that minimal time there has totaled a -7 defensive value. This year, among the 19 first basemen who have taken at least 150 plate appearances while playing the position, Burleson is ranked 16th in defense, checking in with a -4 defensive value, as well as a -1 Outs Above Average and 1 Defensive Run Saved. Having watched the vast majority of the Cardinals’ 49 games this year, I came to the conclusion that there is simply no advanced metric that can fully grasp defensive value at first base.
Alec Burleson measuring as a below-average first baseman just tells me we don't have a good way to measure first baseman defense yet#STLCards
When taking in Burleson’s offense and defense, FanGraphs pegged the slugger as a 1.2 fWAR player which ranks him as 9th-best in the league among primary first baseman. Looking further, though, Burly ranks 25th by measure of defensive value, falling below 30-grade fielder Munetaka Murakami, utility man Spencer Steer, and the rumbling Jake Burger. The other outlets are also down on Burleson’s glove with Baseball Savant giving him a 0 in Fielding Run Value (44th percentile) and -1 Outs Above Average (27th percentile), which again tells me that my eyes are either really messed up or the more likely fact that first base defense is tough to value.
Taking the metrics out of it, Burly has been asked to be the consistent piece of a Cardinals organization that has been going through a rollercoaster stretch for the entirety of his big league career. To his credit, he has taken every challenge in stride and challenging himself to become a more complete baseball player. On a team without any veteran leadership, Burleson has been a voice and example for the youngsters, while also being a solid foundation for Marmol to rally his team around. The issue, though, is that as the only veteran (until Nootbaar comes back), Burleson might miss the timeline for the Cardinals return to relevance if this year goes south.
Because of his early rise to the major leagues, Burleson will approach four years of service time and will be arbitration eligible for this offseason. This will put him as a free agent following the 2028 campaign, putting him firmly in the conversation of extension or trade piece in the next couple of years. Currently, the first base depth is thin behind Burleson, but that is typically a position that can be acquired relatively easily through trade or with cash. If Bloom feels that Burly will still be hitting at his current level or better in his age-30 and later seasons, an extension should be on the table despite his struggles against lefties. With Burly continuing to show his ability to adapt and improve, putting a ceiling on his potential might be premature.
Behind Burleson is Blaze Jordan, who I personally love as a prospect but wonder what the Cardinals feel about his future. Jordan has also played more third base this year so most of the first base starts have gone to 30-year-old Bligh Madris. Among prospects, Leonardo Bernal has played first this year while splitting time behind the plate with Jimmy Crooks and that could be a way to get the switch-hitter promoted quicker as the catching situation continues to be cloudy. Outside of those options, Ivan Herrera has been a common talking point from fans who say he should just simply move to first base, a position he has spent a grand total of eight games while playing in the Caribbean Series winter league in 2023 and I would rather not have a player learn a new position during the season.
Alec Burleson is an established major league hitter who continues to get better every season. He is still just 27-years-old but has been around the big leagues so long that it feels like he is even older. That could also just be because of the beard. Because of the extremely young team surrounding him and an unclear timeline in the organization’s expected return to relevance, Burly could find himself in an awkward in-between phase like teammate Lars Nootbaar may be in when he returns from the injured list in the next couple of weeks.
Shohei Ohtani
Kyle Schwarber
Jordan Walker
Dylan Cease
COVERS INTEL: Dylan Cease owns a 31.8% strikeout rate against this current Pirates lineup.
