At 48-54 with 13 days until the trade deadline, the Houston Astros find themselves in a historically unusual position: they are farther away from .500 (6 games) than they are from the AL West division lead (3.5 games).
So far, nothing about this team says playoffs, yet their proximity to the playoffs and their owner’s unyielding desire to make the playoffs cannot be discounted.
In an appearance on AREA 45 on SportsRadio 610 yesterday, longtime MLB insider Bob Nightengale reiterated that desire is still coming from Houston. Jim Crane is highly competitive and wants to be in the postseason. GM Dana Brown has maintained his belief in the team and his stance that the team will be buyers at the deadline.
Despite that, it is hard to ignore the emerging market. There will not be a lot of sellers, there will be a lot of buyers, creating a seller’s market. Nightengale asserted in his interview last night that there will be a premium on top talent available because there won’t be a lot of it, and the top talent available will be in high demand.
With that in mind, there is far more value in being a seller than being a buyer this deadline. With the looming work stoppage that is widely expected, it is unclear when the offseason in MLB will actually begin, let alone when baseball will actually be played.
Top prospects are at an even greater premium this deadline as well, due to the expected lockout.
This brings us to 3 realistic paths forward for the Houston Astros at the deadline: full buy, change-up, and full sell.
The Full Buy:
Houston goes all in on the postseason, and spares no expense. No one is off limits from the minors, and they go for an impact starter, a leverage pen arm and lefthanded outfield bat that can be a legit consistent contributor to the lineup.
Examples: Robbie Ray/Clay Holmes (SP). Luke Weaver (RP), Jake McCarthy/Mickey Moniak (OF)
The Change-Up:
Houston reallocates it’s spending to different positions. This is likely the hardest to pull off because it requires the most moving parts.
It would involve trading players from the major league roster to acquire different players of different skill sets and positions:
Example: Trading Christian Walker in one deal (likely for a reliever), and acquiring Luis Arraez (to play 1B) in another.
Moving AJ Blubaugh (whose role may be filled by Kai-Wei Teng) as part of a deal to acquire an established starter (Joe Ryan, Clay Holmes) or outfielder (Jung Hoo Lee, Seiya Suzuki)
Moving Bryan Abreu (who has lost his role as a leverage reliever but whose numbers since June 1: 2.66 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 26K in 23.2 IP indicate improved play) in deal for OF (McCarthy, Moniak, Lars Nootbaar)
The Sell Off:
This would be taking advantage of the market inefficiency for buyers and lean into what should be a big seller’s market:
They would make nearly anyone not named Yordan Alvarez and Hunter Brown.
They would look to get huge returns on Jeremy Pena, Josh Hader
They would look to get best possible returns on: Isaac Paredes, Christian Walker (with the preference to move Walker over Paredes), Steven Okert, Bennett Sousa, Bryan Abreu, Peter Lambert, Yainer Diaz
It’s a full out prospect grab with the intent of keeping some of those prospects to build with and then moving others to re-tool the team in the offseason by trading for imapct talent.
It would also take advantage of the money now off the books next season ($19M for Hader, $20M for Walker, approx $16M for Pena, approx $9.5M for Paredes, $5.75M for Abreu, approx $3M for Okert/Sousa combined = approx $73M) to re-tool in the offseason in free agency.
While it is currently unknown if there will be a salary cap for the next season, we know owners have dug in harder than ever to obtain this and seem willing to not play to get it. It is also unknown if teams will be required to get under the cap immediately or if there will be a grandfathering of contracts.
If teams had to get under immediately, there could be a number of “distressed assets” hitting the market as some teams would be forced to make decisions on which of their high priced talent they would need to move on from in a hurry. In that situation, just like in the market, cash is king.
As for which kind of path the Astros ultimately take, it may very well be a matter of how well they play the next 10 days. If they rattle off a 7 game win streak and get back to .500, could well be a buying path. If they fall back closer to 10 games under, it would make more sense to sell.
Which way do you think they will go? Let us know in the comments below.