Raptors vs Cavaliers Prediction, Picks & Best Bets for Today's NBA Playoffs Game 1

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Players who may have served a minimal support role during the regular season can suddenly become pillars of NBA Playoffs strategy. It can take our Raptors vs. Cavaliers predictions to strange and unknown places, like Cleveland forward Dean Wade.

My NBA picks like Wade to get after it on the glass in Game 1 on Saturday, April 18. This one tips off at 1:00 p.m. ET on Prime Video.

Raptors vs Cavaliers Game 1 prediction

Who will win Raptors vs Cavaliers Game 1?

Cavaliers: The Cleveland Cavaliers are sizable home favorites for Game 1 on Saturday. Cleveland has great inside-out scoring and finished the season among the better offenses. Defense has been the biggest blemish for the Cavs. That said, the team seems to find another gear on that end of the floor against top-tier offenses and will be able to lock up a limited Toronto Raptors attack.

Raptors vs Cavaliers best bet: Dean Wade Over 3.5 rebounds (-125)

Heading into this Round 1 series, the big question for Cleveland Cavaliers head coach Kenny Atkinson was how he would counter Toronto Raptors small forward Brandon Ingram.

According to what team analysts believe, Atkinson will go with size as his best option, rolling out 6-foot-9 forward Dean Wade alongside Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. This gives Cleveland a long and interchangeable defense-first lineup, with Wade able to counter Ingram’s perimeter play.

Not only is Wade a great defender, but he’s also counted on to clean the glass. He’s averaged 4.3 rebounds since the All-Star break with 8.6 rebounding chances per contest. He’s collected at least four boards in 15 of his last 24 outings.

Wade averaged around 21 minutes per game but was limited at the end of the year after injuring his ankle. With time to heal and an increased role, his rebound rate will soar on Saturday.

Wade has logged 25 or more minutes in just 24 of his 59 games. But when he draws that floor time, he averages more than five rebounds and has snatched up four or more boards in 18 of those 24 showings.

The rebounding chances will be there, considering the Cavaliers can put this Toronto transition attack in sand and force the Raptors to play a half-court game. Cleveland gives up the sixth-lowest points per play to transition offenses and doesn’t budge for easy looks inside, with the fifth-lowest points in the paint allowed.

Raptors vs Cavaliers Game 1 same-game parlay

The Cavaliers slow down the Raptors' attack and force them into a half-court contest, plugging up the interior with their defensive length. Toronto isn’t a great perimeter team and will struggle to counter the triples from James Harden and Donovan Mitchell.

Scottie Barnes carries the weight for this Toronto team, especially if point guard Immanuel Quickley is limited. He missed time with foot and hamstring ailments, leaving Barnes as the primary ball handler and sparking a surge in his assists. Quickley is questionable, and Barnes will have plenty of touches in Game 1.

Raptors vs Cavaliers SGP

  • Cleveland moneyline
  • Dean Wade Over 3.5 rebounds
  • Scottie Barnes Over 6.5 assists

Our "from downtown" SGP: Deep thoughts

With the Cavs defense pushing Toronto to the perimeter, Ingram is forced to take and make triples to keep pace with Cleveland’s combo of Harden and Mitchell. Both sharpshooters are projected for at least three triples in Game 1.

Raptors vs Cavaliers SGP

  • Cavaliers -8
  • Brandon Ingram Over 1.5 made threes
  • James Harden Over 2.5 made threes
  • Donovan Mitchell Over 2.5 made threes

Raptors vs Cavaliers odds for Game 1

  • Spread: Raptors +8 | Cavaliers -8
  • Moneyline: Raptors +290 | Cavaliers -370
  • Over/Under: Over 221 | Under 221

Raptors vs Cavaliers betting trend to know

The Raptors are 4-12 SU and ATS in Game 1 of a playoff series going back to the 2014 postseason. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Cavaliers.

How to watch Raptors vs Cavaliers Game 1

LocationRocket Arena, Cleveland, OH
DateSaturday, April 18, 2026
Tip-off1:00 p.m. ET
TVPrime Video, TSN4

Raptors vs Cavaliers latest injuries

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2026 NBA Playoffs Preview: Contenders, pretenders, and a title pick

DENVER, CO - APRIL 4: Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets looks to drive against Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs during the first quarter at Ball Arena on April 4, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The NBA playoffs are finally upon us, and that means one thing: it’s time to place every team in arbitrary tiers made by yours truly. 

First, we need to reiterate one thing. In any given year, only a handful of teams have legitimate shots at the title, as history’s shown that teams need a player good enough to go down as a top-35(ish) all-time great, along with an All-NBA level sidekick. This year, only three squads meet those thresholds: the Thunder, Spurs, and Nuggets. 

However, since all of those juggernauts play in the West, we also need to factor in the path to the title for every team. That’s why the East’s best, Boston, are lumped in as a title contender, while the Wolves are in a tier with some lesser teams. 

As usual, let’s start at the top.

The favorite: Thunder

OKC was going to be the favorite no matter what, and the only question that remained was who they needed to beat to repeat as champs. Well, after the Spurs’ loss to Denver in the final regular season game, the Thunder officially have a Mickey Mouse path to the Conference Finals, as they’ll only need to go through a poor play-in team and either the Burnergate Rockets or a hobbled Luka-led Lakers. 

Given their bye to the semis, I think the title is essentially a coin toss between the Thunder and the entire field. OKC remains the deepest team in the league with arguably the best player too, and they went 64-18 while prioritizing health for 2/3 of the season. All the underlying metrics point to the Thunder being a historically great team, with a +11.9 net rating on the back of a ludicrous 107.3 DRTG, and they could’ve flirted with 70 wins if the regular season was a priority. OKC’s potential flaw is the lack of a second offensive option, as JDub has been injured all year and has not played at the level he did last postseason. I’d bet on the Thunder winning if JDub is at 90% of his usual level, but if that can’t happen, then the title race could be more open than expected. 

Legitimate title contenders: Spurs, Nuggets, Celtics 

The Spurs could’ve had the same Mickey Mouse path to the Conference Finals that the Thunder do had they taken care of business against Denver last week. Instead, they’re now facing a potential gauntlet with the Nuggets on their side of the bracket and OKC waiting in the third round, if they even make it that far. I was seriously contemplating picking San Antonio to win it all had they beaten Denver’s C-team, and they’re still talented enough to do it, but a more realistic scenario is a competitive loss to the Nuggets or Thunder before heading into next year as one of the favorites — similar to OKC in 2024. 

Denver, meanwhile, was my preseason title pick, and their ceiling remains high enough for that to happen. The Nuggets’ 122.5 ORTG is the best ever, and that number exceeds 130 when both Jokic and Murray play. However, their 117.5 DRTG is also 21st in the league, and Peyton Watson is still recovering from a calf strain. Denver’s recipe to the finals is rediscovering their early-season form, especially on defense. The Nuggets were a top 5 defensive team for roughly the first 20 games of the year, and while a lot of that was due to shooting luck, they passed the eye test with flying colors. If they can get back to that level and keep Aaron Gordon healthy, Denver is on par with OKC, but they’ll also need to beat the Spurs first to reach the defending champs.

Boston, meanwhile, isn’t in the same realm as the other teams, but they have a much easier path to the finals. Neither of the Jays are on the level of a Shai, Wemby, or Jokic, and yet, the Celtics’ championship DNA and coaching means that they’ve got a shot at beating any of those teams — especially if the West’s representative is beat up from the wars they’ll wage.

Finals contenders: Knicks, Pistons

Even though Boston is listed in a tier above, I wouldn’t pick them over the entire East field. Both the Knicks and Pistons have the talent to make it to the finals, with the only difference being that neither team seem capable of beating any of the West’s juggernauts. Still, New York and Detroit are two of just six teams with both a top-10 offense and defense, and credit should be given to their respective bigs.

KAT has improved his defense drastically in the last third of the season and shouldn’t be considered a liability if he keeps up his current play. On the other end, Jalen Duren averaged 23/10 when Cade was out with his collapsed lung, giving the Pistons a potential second scoring option good enough to get through the East. 

I still expect Boston to get to the finals, but both the Knicks and Pistons can make things very interesting. 

The fraud: Cavaliers

If you still believe in the Cavs, I really don’t know what to say. They’ve turned into Clippers East and will inevitably flame out as usual. 

Since the Harden trade, Cleveland has the fourth-best offense (121.4) but the 13th-ranked net rating (+4.5) and 18th-ranked defense (116.9). They went 21-9 with an extremely easy schedule and had trouble blowing out tankers due to their defense. If the Cavs don’t get upset by Toronto in the first round, then they’ll be out-toughed by the Pistons in the second. Just look at how their 2023 series against the Knicks went. 

I truly wish Cavs fans the best of luck, but don’t be surprised when Mitchell gets banged up, the team gets outrebounded by 100, and Harden goes 2/11 in another elimination game. 

Upset potential: Timberwolves, Hawks, Raptors, Hornets*

As back-to-back Western Finalists, the Wolves deserve a better fate than this. Unfortunately, their path to the finals includes facing the Nuggets in round 1, and potentially the Spurs and Thunder in rounds 2 and 3. Moreover, this is a team that has a negative net rating since February, and Ant and McDaniels are just returning from injury. I would be shocked if they took Denver to a game 7, let alone win. 

Atlanta has been one of the five best teams for almost two months now, and they will be a difficult test for the Knicks. Yes, they had a cupcake schedule during their winning streak, but the Hawks continued dominating until the end of the season, finishing the year 16-5 with a +12 net rating, good for third in the league during that span. 

The Hornets, meanwhile, still need to beat the “PB no J” Magic, and assuming they do, have a real shot at upsetting Detroit too. This Charlotte team is a 50-win team hiding in plain sight, as they have one of the five best records in the league since the new year (33-16) with the second-best net rating at +11.2 — three points better than Detroit.

Lastly, Toronto’s placement here says as much about the Cavs as it does the Raptors, but they also had a better net rating (+6.0) than Cleveland since the Harden trade, while placing top 10 in both offense and defense during that span. Even if they beat the Cavs, I expect a relatively uncompetitive series against Detroit/Charlotte in round 2. 

Thunder fodder: Lakers, Rockets

Do we even need to elaborate? The Lakers virtually have no shot against Houston with Luka still sidelined, and Houston was the team everyone wanted to play due to their anemic offense and shocking chemistry issues with getoffmy KD. Moreover, the winner will face a rested OKC team that’ll likely sweep their first-round matchup with Shai sitting every fourth quarter. 

There’s always next year, though! I heard a certain Kalshi ambassador might be available. 

Participation medal: Sixers, Blazers, Warriors/Suns*, Magic* 

Truly the circle of sadness, none of these teams have a shot at winning any first-round series. Still, many of them will be worth watching for the entertainment value. I’d love to see some Steph magic (sorry Phoenix) for perhaps the final time in the playoffs, and Portland could give the Spurs some trouble with their physicality and size against Wemby. 

In the East, Philly vs Boston is a classic rivalry, and Embiid hasn’t been ruled out of the series yet. As for Orlando, well, can their season just end already? The Hornets are a much more entertaining team, anyway. 

Finals prediction: Thunder over Celtics in 6

Interestingly, I chose this matchup last season too, and only half of that came true. I’m not as confident this year due to the wildcards in the East, and it hinges heavily on how large a load Tatum can handle. In 16 games, The Plagiarizer averaged 21.8/10/5.3 on 41/33/82 splits, looking like 85% of his usual self. More importantly, Tatum ramped his minutes up to 36.2 over five games in April, scoring over 20 points in every contest. It remains to be seen if he’s able to guard opposing bigs again, but regardless, the Celtics have the best combination of toughness, playoff pedigree, and matchup versatility in the East.

OKC’s path has already been laid out. It’ll be shocking if they dropped more than two games in the opening two rounds, and could meet an extremely banged-up Spurs/Nuggets team coming off a 7-game war. With that said, San Antonio has a unique matchup advantage over the Thunder, and if Denver gets past them, it could be a sign that they’ve regained their early-season form. OKC will be challenged and pushed to the brink, but I’m still confident in their ability to be the first back-to-back champs since the dynastic Warriors.

Will the Braves’ bullpen tiers change through the season?

ATLANTA, GEORGIA - APRIL 12: Dylan Dodd #46 of the Atlanta Braves pitches during the seventh inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Truist Park on April 12, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images) | Getty Images

There’s no real way to answer this, but give me your take anyway. I think this is kind of a funny situation.

The Braves have the guys they think are the Good Relievers: Tyler Kinley, Dylan Lee, Robert Suarez, Raisel Iglesias. Maybe Aaron Bummer is in that group, maybe not, I’m not sure yet. But then there’s everyone else, who largely exists to throw mop-up and get shuttled off the roster for a fresh mop-up arm. That creates a bit of a situation, because by virtue of throwing mop-up and getting shuttled off the roster, it’s hard to prove to the team that you should be getting higher-leverage work. The only way to “fall into” higher leverage work is to enter a blowout, have the offense get the Braves back in it, but then stick around and keep pitching in a closer game.

So, without going into all the considerations: do you think any pitcher in the organization breaks into the quartet/quintet of Good Relievers Used Accordingly this season?

Today in Cubs history: Mike Schmidt hits four home runs and the Cubs blow an 11-run lead

Mike Schmidt rounds third after hitting the first of his four home runs on April 17, 1976 | | Bettmann Archive

EDITOR’S NOTE: A version of this article appeared here on the 42nd anniversary of this event, eight years ago. Since it’s now been exactly half a century since Mike Schmidt’s four-homer game at Wrigley Field, I thought you might like to read about that day again. Here’s a lightly edited version of the 2018 article.


Fifty years ago today, it was 84 degrees at game time for a contest between the Cubs and Phillies at Wrigley Field with a wind blowing out at 20 miles per hour.

As you might imagine, that sent quite a few baseballs heading toward the Wrigley Field bleachers that Saturday afternoon, April 17, 1976.

The Cubs used that wind to produce an 11-run lead. My friends, that lead did not last.

The Cubs hit three home runs by the fourth inning: two by Rick Monday and one by Steve Swisher. Two of the three homers were off future Hall of Famer Steve Carlton, who didn’t make it out of the second inning, allowing seven hits, two walks and seven runs.

All of that gave the Cubs a 13-2 lead after four innings. A no-brainer fun win, right?

Well, no. These were the 1976 Cubs, who would bottom out at 19 games under .500 (39-58) on July 26, before playing a bit better the rest of the way (36-29, perhaps presaging a good start the following year. From July 27, 1976 through June 28, 1977 the Cubs were 83-51, one of the best long stretches in franchise history).

Anyway, most of what happened the rest of that long-ago afternoon was courtesy of another future Hall of Famer, Mike Schmidt.

Cubs starter Rick Reuschel actually retired Schmidt in his first at-bat, in the second inning. (Amazingly, Schmidt batted sixth in that Phillies lineup.) Schmidt singled in the fourth and was forced out, but the Phillies scored their first run.

He came up again with a runner on and two out in the fifth and homered. That made the score 13-4.

It was still 13-4 in the top of the seventh. The Phillies had already scored twice when Schmidt batted with two out and no one on base. He homered again, cutting the Cubs’ lead to six.

A six-run lead heading to the bottom of the seventh. What could possibly go wrong? (You likely already know the answer to that question.)

In the top of the eighth, Dick Allen singled in two runs with the bases loaded to make it 13-9. By this time Mike Garman had replaced Reuschel. It mattered not. Schmidt smashed his third homer of the game, this one a three-run shot, and suddenly it’s a one-run game, 13-12.

Darold Knowles relieved Garman. Knowles, famed for his work in the 1973 World Series for the Athletics, did not have a good outing on this windy day. Another homer — this one by Bob Boone — tied the game, and Knowles allowed two more runs in the inning, so the Cubs now trailed 15-13.

The Cubs weren’t done, though. With two out and runners on second and third in the ninth, Swisher singled in both and the game headed to extra innings tied 15-15.

With one out in the top of the 10th and a runner on base, Schmidt came to the plate [VIDEO].

Schmidt’s fourth homer of the game — and remember, he didn’t hit his first until the fifth inning — was off Rick Reuschel’s brother Paul, and the Phillies scored once more to make it 18-15. (That’s the WGN radio call on the video, with Vince Lloyd and Lou Boudreau.)

This game — which eventually ran three hours, 41 minutes — wasn’t quite done. With two out in the last of the 10th, Bill Madlock doubled in Mike Adams — the only run Adams scored as a Cub — and Jerry Morales stepped to the plate as the potential tying run.

Phillies manager Danny Ozark called on Jim Lonborg, normally a starter. Lonborg got Morales to ground out, and posted one of just four saves he had in his big-league career. Here’s how Tribune writer Richard Dozer recapped this game:

The combined delights of hitting behind a 20 mile-an-hour wind in Wrigley Field against a Cub pitching staff that only a foe could love thrust Mike Schmidt, the National League home run champion, full force into the big league record book Saturday.

Schmidt smashed four consecutive home runs to set a modern National League record. With them, he drove across eight runs and dragged the Philadelphia Phillies off the floor to an incredible 18-16 victory in 10 innings before 28,287 shellshocked spectators.

Unbelievably defeated in this one, the staggered Cubs actually were ahead at one stage by a 13-2 score. But while Philadelphia pitchers were knocking down Cub hitters to gain a measure of respect Cub hurlers rarely attain, the whipped Chicagoans were overtaken in a three-run Philadelphia ninth.

The Cubs thus lost a game they’d led by 11 runs — and by six going into the eighth! — by that 18-16 score.

Half a century later, the 11-run blown lead still stands as the biggest in National League history. (There have been a couple of AL games where a 12-run lead was blown.)

It all happened 50 years ago today, Saturday, April 17, 1976.

Minor League Recap: Bazzana, Espino, Hartle, Chourio, Oakie and more dazzle

Columbus Clippers Travis Bazzana (12) throws the ball to first base during home opener at Huntington Park on Tuesday, March 31, 2026, in Columbus, Ohio. | Samantha Madar/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Columbus Clippers 10, Iowa Cubs 11

Clippers fall to 9-9

Columbus made a valiant effort to battle back in this one after falling behind 5-0, but the Clippers fell one run shy in extra innings Thursday.

Travis Bazzana had a spectacular game, going 3-for-6 with two doubles. He’s currently riding a six-game hitting streak with four multi-hit games in his last five. Don’t look now, but he’s really starting to figure it out at Triple-A.

C.J. Kayfus also had a three-hit game, going 3-for-5 with a double and a walk. Stuart Fairchild went 2-for-5 with a double and a hit by pitch while Kody Huff went 2-for-4 with two doubles.

Dayan Frias hit his first home run of the season while Milan Tolentino had a two-run double.

Starting pitcher Ryan Webb was tagged for seven runs (six earned) on nine hits with four walks and just one strikeout in 5.0 innings of work.

Will Dion was solid in relief, tossing 2.0 scoreless innings.

Daniel Espino gave up his first run of the season, a solo home run, but he also topped 100 mph with his fastball three times. His slider was over 94 mph and his changeup was over 93. His stuff is getting filthier every time we see him and I’m legitimately getting excited for what he’s going to be able to do as long as he continues to stay healthy.

Steven Perez pitched a scoreless ninth inning, giving Columbus the chance to send the game to extra innings — which it did — but then he was hammered for three runs in the top of the 10th. Columbus managed to score two back, but the rally fell just short.

Akron RubberDucks 5, Harrisburg Senators 0 (F/7)

RubberDucks improve to 8-4

Akron continues to get excellent pitching and timely hitting as the RubberDucks own their third straight game. This time, it was starting pitcher Josh Hartle who had himself a game.

Hartle tossed 5.1 shutout two-hit innings with seven strikeouts and three walks. The performance lowered his season ERA to 2.45.

Jay Driver completed the final 1.2 innings of the shutout in a rain-shortened game.

On offense, Angel Genao had a terrific game, going 2-for-3 with a double and a walk. Christian Knapczyk went 1-for-3 with a walk and Jake Fox went 3-for-4.

Alfonsin Rosario went 1-for-4, but his one hit was a huge one, a three-run home run in the seventh inning to help Akron seal the win. It was his fifth home run of the season.

Lake County Captains 3, Fort Wayne Tincaps 8

Captains fall to 5-6

You wouldn’t think it from the final score, but this was by far the best start of pitching prospect Jackson Humphries’ young career.

An eighth round draft pick out of high school in 2022, Humphries has historically struggled to throw strikes, but that wasn’t the case on Thursday. He pitched five innings, allowing one run on two hits with 10 strikeouts and 0 walks. Still just 21 years old, he’s yet another arm in a loaded Guardians system that’s worth keeping an eye on.

Unfortunately, the bullpen didn’t have Humphries’ back on Thursday. Sean Matson gave up two runs in 1.2 innings, Cam Schuelke gave up another run in his 1.1 innings and Logan McGuire was absolutely blistered for four runs in his lone inning of work to remove the Captains from contention.

Offensively, the Captains scored all of their runs on solo shots. Jaison Chourio had a strong game, going 2-for-4 with a home run and a walk. He’s now up to a rock solid season slashline of .273/.389/.523 through 11 games. If he keeps this up, he’ll be right back on track as a top outfield prospect in the loaded Guardians system.

Esteban Gonzalez also had a great game, going 3-for-4 with a home run. Dean Curley went 1-for-3 with a walk, a hit by pitch and a stolen base and Nolan Schubart went 1-for-4 with a double and a walk. Luke Hill went 1-for-2 with a walk and a hit by pitch.

Hill City Howlers 14, Wilson Warbirds 1

Howlers improve to 8-4

Hill City went absolutely ballistic this game, scoring 14 runs on a whopping 17 hits with seven walks. This is going to be fun to break down, especially the top of the batting order, who all had downright disgusting games.

Juneiker Caceres had an absolute monster game, going 3-for-5 with a three-run home run and a walk. After a slow start to the season, he now sports a solid .872 OPS.

Leadoff hitter Dauri Fernandez also was elite, going 4-for-6 with two doubles and a stolen base. Top teenage outfield prospect Robert Arias was moved up to No. 2 in the batting order and he responded by going 3-for-6 with a double, raising his season batting average to .308 in the process.

Anthony Martinez reached base safely three times, going 1-for-4 with two walks. Yelferth Castillo went 2-for-6 with a double and catcher Ty Howard walked three times and scored a pair of runs.

Jhorvic Abreus went 2-for-5 with a stolen base and Yaikel Mijares went 2-for-5.

The incredible offensive eruption buried the lede of some tremendous pitching performances from Hill City.

Top pitching prospect Joey Oakie had his best start of the 2026 season thus far, throwing 4.0 shutout innings of three-hit ball with seven strikeouts and just one walk.

Jervis Alfaro followed with 5.0 innings, allowing one run (zero earned) on two hits with five strikeouts and two walks to earn the win.

Friday morning Rangers things

SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 13: Jake Burger #21 of the Texas Rangers is congratulated by teammates after he hit his second home run of the game against the Athletics in the third inning at Sutter Health Park on April 13, 2026 in Sacramento, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Good morning, LSB.

The Rangers won a spirited, comeback affair against the A’s yesterday.

Kennedi Landry writes about how the Rangers finally bested their mortal enemy, the wind.

Grant also writes about Gavin Collyer’s quick and efficient MLB debut.

Grant also looks at some streaking Rangers, good and bad.

Elsewhere MLB Pipeline lists the best defensive prospect from each team.

And Mike Trout is really good (again).

That’s all for this morning. The Rangers start up a new series with the Mariners tonight at 8:40 with Jacob The Grom on the mound for Texas.

Happy Friday!

Is it time to worry about Jesús Luzardo?

The Phillies have plenty of early season problems, but perhaps one of the most concerning ones is the performance of Jesús Luzardo. 

Four starts into the season after signing a five year, $135M extension, Luzardo sports a 7.94 ERA in 22.2 innings. He’s allowed five or more runs in three of those starts, with the most recent edition being his 9 runs on 12 hits in just 5.1 IP shellacking at the hands of the Cubs. His struggles are reminiscent to the tipping pitches situation from last summer, but he insists that’s not the case now. 

So, what is the problem then? One of the first things to look at when a pitcher is struggling is the stuff. In this case, Luzardo’s stuff looks good and, in some cases, looks better than last year. He’s averaging 97.3 MPH on his fastball, a slight increase from 2025, his sweeper has a 49% whiff rate on 140 pitches, and his changeup has a 46.3% whiff rate on 77 pitches thrown so far. There’s nothing under the hood to suggest that Luzardo’s stuff has regressed, in fact there’s more evidence to show it’s slightly improved

Luzardo suggested in his post-game interview that some of the problem could be pitch usage and sequencing. Here we can see a noticeable change, at least in the small sample size of four starts. He’s greatly increased the usage of his sinker, up to 19.1% from 10.8% last year at the expense of his four-seam fastball. The four seamer has fallen from his most used pitch at 33.3% to 24.1%, being overtaken by the sweeper for most used. Last season, Luzardo used the fastball and sweeper at similar rates, 33.3% and 32.1% respectively. So far in 2026, he’s tried to incorporate the sinker more into that mix at the expense of his regular fastball.

Elsewhere, his problems with runners on base have once again reared their ugly head. Opposing hitters are hitting .441 with five extra base hits including three home runs against Luzardo with runners on base. When the bases are empty, opposing hitters are hitting .220 with three doubles and 20 strikeouts to 3 walks. He’s also struggled mightily the second and third time through the order. Opponents are hitting .171 with a .394 OPS and 12 strikeouts to one walk against Luzardo the first time through a lineup. But the second time through, those numbers jump to a .281 AVG and .861 OPS. They soar even higher the third time through, with Luzardo getting pulverized to the tune of a .500 AVG and 1.231 OPS in a sample of 26 batters faced.

At least part of the explanation to this poor start for Luzardo is bad luck. He’s sitting on a league worst .417 BABIP (Cristopher Sánchez is second with .411), well above his .324 mark from last year and way above the league average of .288 so far in 2026. That suggests that Luzardo is due for at least some positive batted ball regression. There was some soft contact that found grass in his latest start, but there were also some hard-hit rockets among the balls in play he surrendered, including four balls at over 100 MPH in exit velocity. Nevertheless, his 86.2 MPH average exit velocity for the season so far is right in line with his 88.5 mark from 2025. 

It is still early, and Luzardo was able to rebound from a string of poor starts last year. His batted ball luck should normalize as the season goes on, but his struggles with runners on base is a trend that dates back to last season and was thought to have been fixed. So, is it time to worry about JesúsLuzardo? Or are you confident that he’ll be able to right the ship again?

An early checkup on Shane Baz

CLEVELAND, OHIO - APRIL 16: Starter Shane Baz #34 of the Baltimore Orioles pitches during the first inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on April 16, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) | Getty Images

It’s no lie to say that, even among a sea of flame-throwing MLB starters, Shane Baz’s talent stands out. He brings a four-pitch mix (technically, five, but he’s thrown the sinker exactly once this year, so I don’t quite believe in it) featuring a four-seam fastball that averages, even post-Tommy John, 97 mph, 84th percentile in the league. This is the same pitch that Baseball America awarded the best-in-organization grade for three years running in the Rays system, and his scouting reports long reflected that fact, plus the sheer talent.

Drafted 12th overall by the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2017, Baz was packaged—somewhat infamously—as the PTBNL in the trade that sent Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows to Tampa Bay for Chris Archer. It is widely considered one of the worst deals in, at least, Pirates history. He was soon Tampa Bay’s No. 1 prospect, striking out a ridiculous 113 hitters in 78.2 innings as a Rays farmhand. Seems that the nickname “Wizard of Baz,” which has followed him since high school, was not unearned.

At the MLB level, his numbers never hit those levels of hype. His 2021 debut lasted all of three games, and his 2022 season was also marred by injuries, including surgery with Dr. Keith Meister (who’s also operated on Kyle Bradish and Zach Eflin). Tommy John cost Baz all of 2023, an oblique injury derailed his 2024 return, and only in 2025 did Baz finally make a full season’s worth of starts. The numbers weren’t the gaudiest: he made 31 starts for Tampa Bay in 2025, registering a 10-12 record and 4.87 ERA with 176 strikeouts.

His Statcast peripherals were, though, and those totals were enough to send the Orioles scavenging through their farm system cupboard to fund the biggest pitching acquisition of the Mike Elias era. Baltimore sent four prospects—outfielder Slater de Brun (their No. 6 prospect), catcher Caden Bodine (No. 10), right-hander Michael Forret (No. 11), and outfielder Austin Overn (No. 30)—along with the 33rd overall pick in the 2026 draft  to pry Baz away from a division rival. Toing the party line at the start of the seaseon, new Orioles manager Craig Albernaz declared that Shane Baz’s upside is “Cy Young award winner,” an enviable ceiling. The sides then finalized a five-year, $68 million extension just before Opening Day: the richest contract the Orioles have ever given to a pitcher.

So far in 2026, the results have been mixed (which is an affectionate way of saying they’ve been messy). Through his first four starts, Baz is 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, with 19 strikeouts in 22 innings. He’s failed to complete six innings in three of four outings. He has allowed at least three earned runs in three of four starts, and the one strong one—5.2 one-run innings against the Pirates—has been bookended by clunkers against better teams.

The peripheral numbers are more encouraging, although not without their own concerns. The hopeful signs are in is the significant gap between his actual results and his expected ones: his xwOBA of .318 is considerably better than his actual wOBA of .393, suggesting some bad luck on balls in play. His knuckle-curve is generating a 28% whiff rate in early usage, and his cutter is holding hitters to a .182 average . The velocity remains intact—his spring training fastball maxed out at 98.6 mph. The strikeout upside is clearly still there.

On the other hand, Baz shows an average exit velocity of 89.2 mph (high for him) and a barrel rate of 9.8%, the latter sitting in an uncomfortable range. Opponents expected average of .252 is the highest of his career. His fastball run value of -4 is the lowest it’s been.

The recurring concern, as it has been throughout his career, is command: his four-seamer has been hit hard, surrendering four doubles among its first seven hits allowed. His offspeed stuff (changeup, cutter, the knuckle-curve) are all showing slightly reduced spin this season.

How does this compare to Baz’s best moments? His 2021 debut remains the benchmark, when his strikeout-to-walk ratio was exceptional and his stuff looked genuinely electric in a very small sample. Over 48 career starts since his return from Tommy John surgery, he has an 8.9 SO9 rate and a 3.3 walk rate, with a FIP of 4.23—numbers that speak of a solid mid-rotation arm rather than an ace, though the underlying metrics hint at more.

But his 2025 xERA of 3.88 and SIERA of 3.95 (skill-intensive ERA; it’s a Fangraphs thing) point to a pitcher whose ERA significantly overstates his struggles, particularly—and I find this pretty important—given the havoc wrought by Steinbrenner Field, the Rays’ season-long Triple-A park last year while the Trop endured storm-related repairs.

Baz’s offspeed pitches seem to need some tuning up, but overall, the stuff does not appear degraded. What has fluctuated instead is his command and, in particular, his ability to suppress the home run ball against right-handed hitters. (I am told that, post-TJ, sometimes this happens.)

Four starts in, the early returns on Shane Baz as an Oriole are neither alarming nor reassuring—they’re more inconclusive. The gap between his actual results and his expected metrics suggests the ERA will come down. Patterns are already emerging that suggest he is leaning more heavily into his curve and cutter, a mix that appears to be working well. Camden Yards is a more forgiving environment than Steinbrenner Field, and Baz has shown in flashes (including five games of nine or more strikeouts in 2025) that the potential is real. The Orioles gave up a great deal to acquire him, well before he’d thrown a pitch in orange and black, and they gave up a lot to keep him here long-term. There are legitimate reasons to believe the best of Shane Baz is still ahead of him. We’re still watching, and what we see is enough to stay interested.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Daily MLB Expert Picks & Baseball Predictions April 17

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Let's head into the weekend on some winning vibes with our MLB best bets for tonight at Polymarket, which allows baseball fans coast-to-coast to make their favorite MLB picks.

We've polled our MLB experts for their top plays today, looking at Chi-Town, the A-Town, and Believeland to deliver Ws tonight. 

  • UPDATE: Added Neil Parker's best bet for CHC/NYM.

MLB expert picks for today

PickOdds
Josh Inglis Josh Inglis: CHW ML+138
Jon Metler Jon Metler: ATL ML-108
Joe Osborne Joe Osborne: CLE ML-127
Neil Parker Neil Parker: CHC -1.5+133

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

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Josh Inglis' expert pick: White Sox moneyline

Price: 42¢ (+138) at Polymarket

There’s solid wiggle room here, with a fair price around +106. Davis Martin has been steady, turning in three strong starts with two wins for the Chicago White Sox. Aaron Civale doesn’t typically go deep for the Athletics, and their bullpen has been heavily used of late, with multiple key arms unavailable today. This profiles as a higher-scoring, back-and-forth game where both bullpens will factor in — in that type of environment, taking the plus-money dog makes sense.

Jon Metler's expert pick: Braves moneyline

Price: 52¢ (-108) at Polymarket

The Atlanta Braves are trading as a 52-cent favorite in Philadelphia on Friday, but I make them closer to a 58-cent favorite, giving us a solid edge at the current price. This is a tough matchup for Taijuan Walker, a pitch-to-contact right-hander who has struggled badly against lefties this season — a major concern against a Braves lineup loaded with left-handed bats, but also has dangerous righties like Ronald Acuña Jr. and Austin Riley. On the other side, southpaw Martin Pérez isn’t overpowering, but he does a strong job commanding his cutter and sinker. That approach should help limit the pull-side power of Philadelphia’s top leftie threats Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, and keep the Phillies’ offense in check.

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Guardians moneyline

Price: 56¢ (-127) at Polymarket

Home/Away splits line up heavily in the Guardians' favor tonight. Tanner Bibee is a completely different pitcher at home, carrying over from last season, where his ERA sat nearly two runs lower. Baltimore's Chris Bassitt, on the other hand, struggles badly on the road: He had an ERA spike of 2.7 in away games last season, and we're seeing shades of that in 2026. The gap shows up at the plate too, as Guardians hitters own an OPS nearly 100 points higher at home, while the Orioles' offense takes a noticeable dip away from Camden Yards, averaging just three runs per game.

Neil Parker's expert pick: Cubs -1.5

Price: 43¢ (+133) at Polymarket

The Mets have dropped eight straight while scoring just 12 total runs. Juan Soto (calf) isn’t returning anytime soon, and the Mets are down to 28th in wOBA against right-handed arms. It’s a different story at the dish for the Cubs, as they’ve won three of four while averaging 8.8 runs per game. Plus, Cubbies righty Edward Cabrera has hit the ground running, with a 1.62 ERA and 1.14 WHIP while holding opposing hitters to a .175 average and .250 wOBA.


More MLB best bets for today

PickOdds
Dodgers/Rockies u9.5-107
Read analysis in our Dodgers vs. Rockies predictions
Red Sox ML-130
Read analysis in our Tigers vs. Red Sox predictions
Rangers ML+110
Read analysis in our Rangers vs. Mariners predictions
Rays ML+120
Read analysis in our Rays vs. Pirates predictions

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Prop Bets, Picks, Parlay & Odds for Friday, April 17

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It's been a great week on the home-run front as the MLB player prop market has been good to us without terrible hitting conditions.

There are some spots to attack today, so I'm targeting the best hitting environments and matchups today, and hopefully take a little money into the weekend.

The Jays have a great matchup vs. one of the luckier pitchers in baseball right now, and the Jordan Walker price is head-scratching when you look at his home-run matchup. 

I also like Ildemaro Vargas to go deep at boxcar odds.

These are my favorite home run props for Friday, April 17. 

  • UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HROdds
Blue Jays Daulton Varsho+540
Cardinals Jordan Walker+540
D-backs Ildemaro Vargas+1200
💲Today's HR parlay+35702

Daulton Varsho (+540)

How about a little lefty-on-righty for +540 to start a Friday home run train?

Daulton Varsho is hitting out of the two-hole and might get that all-important fifth at-bat. He is also in the middle of a power surge with three home runs over his last six games. 

The indoor matchup vs. Mike Soroka is a plus. The Jays likely have plenty of info on the Canadian pitcher, who sits in the Bottom-20 in BlastCon% among all MLB starters this year.

You will also be hard-pressed to find a pitcher that has been as lucky as Soroka this year, with an ERA three full points below his expected numbers. There are also no left-handers in the Arizona bullpen, which sits 21st in RP ERA.

The fair price on this home run is around +450. 

  • Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: Dbacks.TV, Sportsnet

Jordan Walker (+540)

What a great price for one of the league’s top home-run hitters to start the season.

Jordan Walker has elite marks in swing speed and Blast Contact%, which have translated into a league-leading eight home runs. He gets a favorable matchup against Peter Lambert, who is making his debut and may only be in this spot due to injuries in the Astros' rotation rather than performance.

Lambert hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2024 and has allowed 25 home runs over his last 148+ innings in the MLB. He’s unlikely to go deep, which brings a vulnerable Houston bullpen into play — a unit that has already allowed the second-most home runs this season.

Walker could see fringe MLB arms for much of this game. This price should be closer to +390, and in a matchup like this, the scoring environment could get out of hand quickly.

  • Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: Space City Home Network, Cardinals.TV

Ildemaro Vargas (+1200)

I started the week with a four-digit dinger, and I’m looking to bookend it with another.

Ildemaro Vargas owns some of the best Blast Contact% marks on the Arizona Diamondbacks, which is enough at a +1200 price in a controlled environment.

It gets better. Eric Lauer has been serving up meatballs, and Vargas has quietly posted a 1.068 OPS with plenty of extra-base hits.

He hits lefties better, is moving up the lineup, and should see favorable spots against a Toronto Blue Jays bullpen that can give up damage.

  • Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: Dbacks.TV, Sportsnet
Jinglis' 2026 Transparency Record
  • HR picks: 5-30, +0.6 units

Today’s HR parlay

Blue Jays Daulton VarshoBet Now
+35702
Cardinals Jordan Walker
D-backs Ildemaro Vargas

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Yankees vs Royals: 5 things to watch and series predictions | April 17-19

Here are five things to watch and predictions as the Yankees open a three-game series against the Kansas City Royals in the Bronx on Friday...


5 things to watch

Will Ben Rice stay in the lineup?

A lot has been made of manager Aaron Boone's lineups this week. Despite saying Rice is his first baseman, he's sat down the talented slugger a few times this week in favor of Paul Goldschmidt. 

While Boone likes having Rice as a left-handed option off the bench, with the team scuffling and Rice being the most consistent hitter this season, it would behoove the skipper to keep Rice at first base this weekend. 

Will it happen? That remains to be seen.

The Royals are deploying two southpaws in Noah Cameron and Cole Ragans, but Rice launched a homer off a lefty reliever against the Angels on Thursday, so he is capable of handling it.

Aaron Judge continues to mash

Judge is locked in.

The captain mashed four home runs in the four-game series against the Angels this week and is now tied for the major league lead in that category.

Unfortunately for the Yanks, the home runs haven't necessarily translated to victories as the Bombers had to settle for a split with the Angels. The Yankees have lost seven of their last nine games, but when Judge goes this team goes. And going up against those aforementioned lefties could benefit Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and the other right-handers in the lineup.

Bullpen woes

The Yankees' bullpen was the weakest part of the team coming out of spring training, but they excelled early on and helped the team get out to a 8-2 start. Things have changed since.

New York Yankees pitcher Angel Chivilli (57) throws a pitch against the Pittsburgh Pirates in the fifth inning during spring training at George M. Steinbrenner Field
New York Yankees pitcher Angel Chivilli (57) throws a pitch against the Pittsburgh Pirates in the fifth inning during spring training at George M. Steinbrenner Field / Nathan Ray Seebeck - Imagn Images

The relievers allowed 14 runs in 17 innings during the four-game series with the Angels, including two implosions.

New York has played musical chairs with certain relievers as they try and navigate playing 13 straight days -- their next off day is Monday. 

The high-leverage guys -- aside from Camilo Doval -- have been fine, but if the starters don't go deep the Yankees could be facing problems similar to what they experienced this week.

Length needed from starters

Speaking of the starters, the Yankees will have Cam Schlittler, Will Warren,and Ryan Weathers take the mound this weekend.

All three were not great in their last starts. Schlittler had his -- relative -- worst outing of the season, allowing three runs over five innings while the Angels pounced on Warren for six runs across 3.2 innings. Weathers was the most unique, as he struck out 10 batters but allowed five runs in five innings, all from the long ball.

While it is a long season and hiccups are natural, the Yankees need their young hurlers to give them length to take the pressure off the bullpen and the lineup.

Bobby in the Bronx

Yankee Stadium sometimes brings the best out of some players, like we saw with Mike Trout this week. The future Hall-of-Famer launched five home runs in the four-game series, making a statement to the rest of MLB that he is healthy and back.

Now, the Yanks will welcome Bobby Witt Jr.,the Royals' superstar who finished second to Judge in the 2024 MVP voting. While Witt hasn't had the start he usually does -- he's slashing .254/.346/.299 with an OPS of .645 across 18 games -- it's only a matter of time until the talented infielder gets it going.

Witt has played 11 games in the Bronx. In that span, he's hitting .255 with two doubles and one home run. 

Predictions

Who will the MVP of the series be?

Ben Rice

Rice plays all three games and shows why he needs to stay in the lineup.

Which Yankees pitcher will have the best start?

Cam Schlittler

Schlittler has allowed three runs in back-to-back games this season. He didn't do that all of last season, and I don't see that going to three games.

Which Royals player will be a thorn in the Yankees' side?

Bobby Witt Jr.

Easy pick. Witt just put up three hits on Thursday against the Tigers, and it feels like he's ready to be his MVP-type self after a slow start.

Rays vs Pirates Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight's MLB Game

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The Tampa Bay Rays will look to build on their six-game winning streak as they visit the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday night.

Tampa Bay has been crushing opposing pitchers so far this season, and I’m picking it to win again tonight in my Rays vs. Pirates predictions. 

Let’s take a deeper look at this matchup in my free MLB picks for Friday, April 17.

Who will win Rays vs Pirates tonight: Rays moneyline (+120)

The Tampa Bay Rays are averaging 5.06 runs per game so far this season, and have put up at least five runs in every game of their current winning streak. They’ll have a great chance to keep that going tonight against Pittsburgh Pirates starter Bubba Chandler.

Chandler has allowed three earned runs in each of his last two starts without going more than 5 1/3 innings in either game.

Tampa Bay starter Nick Martinez has looked sharp to start the season, throwing to a 2.16 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over his first three starts.

With the Rays coming in this hot, I’m jumping on these odds tonight.

Covers COVERS INTEL: Tampa Bay is hitting .267 and averaging 5.5 runs per nine innings against right-handed pitching this season.

Rays vs Pirates Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-102)

Pittsburgh is hitting well too, averaging five runs per game off a .734 OPS this year. Brandon Lowe has seven homers in his first 17 games, while Oneil Cruz and Ryan O’Hearn are also off to fast starts.

Neither starter is likely to give their team much length tonight. There are soft spots that these lineups can take advantage of if it takes several arms to get through this game, especially on Tampa Bay’s side.

With both lineups in peak form, I’m backing the Over.

Ed Scimia's 2026 Transparency Record
  • ML/RL bets: 3-4, -1.03 units
  • Over/Under bets: 1-4, -2.96 units

Rays vs Pirates odds

  • Moneyline: Rays +116 | Pirates -136
  • Run line: Rays +1.5 | Pirates -1.5
  • Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Rays vs Pirates trend

The Rays are 6-0 straight up in their last six games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Pirates.

How to watch Rays vs Pirates and game info

LocationPNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
DateFriday, April 17, 2026
First pitch6:45 p.m. ET
TVApple TV
Rays starting pitcherNick Martinez
(0-0, 2.16 ERA)
Pirates starting pitcherBubba Chandler
(0-1, 3.86 ERA)

Rays vs Pirates latest injuries

Rays vs Pirates weather

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Ipswich in promotion driving seat but little is ever as it seems with Championship

Kieran McKenna’s team face a crunch clash with Middlesbrough but charging Southampton loom large

At the end of July, Ipswich and Middlesbrough reached an agreement. If the Boro midfielder Hayden Hackney agreed personal terms he could join the Suffolk club, freshly relegated and awash with ready funds, for a Championship record fee of around £20m. Kieran McKenna knew he would be getting the best schemer in the division if his target said yes; a player who could make the difference in a 46-game grind. Perhaps with half an eye on Premier League interest, Hackney heard Ipswich out but turned the transfer down. He would end up staying on Teesside and propelling an often exhilarating promotion chase.

There is little chance of a mutually beneficial outcome when the sides meet at Portman Road on Sunday. Hackney has missed the past four games with a calf injury and it is unclear whether he will be ready in time for a game of potentially seismic consequence.

Continue reading...

Winter is coming … back? Super League could revamp schedule as part of NRL takeover

  • CEO Andrew Abdo: ‘There are clear pros and cons for it’

  • London Broncos key to multimillion takeover vision

Super League could move back to a winter competition to allow year-round global broadcasting of rugby league if the NRL agrees a deal to take control of the British game.

Andrew Abdo, the CEO of the NRL, told the Guardian the Australian governing body would consider the calendar switch as a key part of a potential multimillion-pound takeover and investment package that would also include a strong focus on a London-based club and major governance reform.

Continue reading...

Warriors vs. Suns Play-In Game predictions: Odds, recent stats, trends and best bets for April 17

The Golden State Warriors visit the Phoenix Suns tonight at the Mortgage Matchup Center in a winner-take-all NBA Play-In finale to decide the eighth seed in the NBA’s Western Conference. The winner secures a first-round playoff date against the top-seed and defending NBA Champion Oklahoma City Thunder. The loser’s season ends tonight.

Golden State enters this matchup riding the momentum of a thrilling 126–121 comeback win over the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday. Stephen Curry scored 27 of his 35 points in the second half to lead the Warriors comeback. Draymond Green locked down Kawhi Leonard in the second half and veteran Al Horford buried four, three-pointers in the fourth quarter to seal the win in SoCal. Despite finishing the regular season with a 37–45 record, the Warriors' championship pedigree was on full display as they erased a 13-point final-quarter deficit to keep their postseason hopes alive. There may be a minutes restriction on Kristaps Porzingis (ankle) but they can overcome that if Horford and Green turn back the clock as they did against the Clippers.

Like the Clippers, the Suns also blew a double-digit fourth quarter lead in their initial play-in game. Because they are the seventh seed, however, they get a second opportunity to qualify for the playoffs. Defense has been at the foundation of the Suns’ success this season, but make no mistake, Devin Booker is the key to Phoenix advancing to the playoffs. They have few scoring options outside of the former Kentucky guard. Adding to the challenge is the fact the Suns are expected to be without Grayson Allen (hamstring) and may be without Mark Williams (foot). Their absences would be substantial.

Tonight's game is the fifth meeting between these Pacific Division rivals this year, with the Warriors holding a 3–1 regular-season advantage.

Lets take a closer look at tonight’s matchup and take into consideration lineups, injuries, and other factors affecting the line and total.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on how to catch tipoff, odds courtesy of DraftKings recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

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Game Details and How to Watch Live: Warriors vs. Suns

  • Date: Friday, April 17, 2026
  • Time: 10PM EST
  • Site: Mortgage Matchup Center
  • City: Phoenix, AZ
  • Network/Streaming: Prime Video

Rotoworld has you covered with all the latest NBA Player News for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!

Game Odds: Warriors vs. Suns

The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:

  • Moneyline: Golden State Warriors (+130), Phoenix Suns (-155)
  • Spread: Suns -3.5
  • Total: 219.5 points

This game opened Suns -3.5 with the Total set at 219.5.

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NBA schedule! 

Expected Starting Lineups: Warriors vs. Suns

Golden State Warriors

  • G Stephen Curry
  • G Brandin Podziemski
  • C Kristaps Porzingis
  • SF Gui Santos
  • PF Draymond Green

Phoenix Suns

  • G Devin Booker
  • G Jalen Green
  • G Jordan Goodwin
  • SF Dillon Brooks
  • C Mark Williams

Injury Report: Warriors vs. Suns

Golden State Warriors

  • Jimmy Butler (knee) has been declared OUT of tonight’s game
  • Moses Moody (knee) has been declared OUT of tonight’s game
  • Quinten Post (foot) has been declared OUT of tonight’s game
  • Kristaps Porzingis (ankle) is listed as questionable for tonight’s game

Phoenix Suns

  • Mark Williams (foot) is listed as questionable for tonight’s game
  • Grayson Allen (hamstring) is listed as questionable for tonight’s game

Important stats, trends and insights: Warriors vs. Suns

  • The Suns are 25-17 at home this season
  • The Warriors are 16-26 on the road this season
  • The Suns are 46-34-3 ATS this season
  • Golden State is 35-47-1 ATS this season
  • The OVER has cashed in 50 of the Warriors’ 83 games this season (50-33)
  • The OVER has cashed in 38 of the Suns’ 83 games this season (38-45)
  • Not one Warrior pulled down more than 7 rebounds in the win over the Clippers

Rotoworld Best Bet

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NBA calendar based on data points like recent performance, head-to-head player matchups, trends information and projected game totals.
 
Once the model is finished running, we put its projections next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for tonight’s Warriors and Suns’ game:

  • Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Warriors on the Moneyline
  • Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Warriors +3.5 ATS
  • Total: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Total of 219.5

Want even more NBA best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert NBA Predictions page from NBC Sports for money line, spread and over/under picks for every game on today’s calendar! 

If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our NBA Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!

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