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As the NBA Playoffs transition to the conference semifinal stage on Monday, sportsbooks are still heavily backing the Oklahoma City Thunder to win their second straight championship.

While the Thunder are the outright leaders, the New York Knicks enjoyed the largest surge in Finals odds after the Boston Celtics were eliminated in seven games.

Key Takeaways

• The Thunder and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead in Finals and Finals MVP odds.
  
  
• Philadelphia’s 3-1 comeback propelled the Knicks to lead the East in Finals odds.
  
  
• BetMGM users are backing Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs in Finals and Finals MVP markets.

The Thunder began the year as a +240 leader in NBA Finals odds, according to BetMGM. They had closed to +115 when the playoffs began and are now down to -140 (58.3% implied chance) with a leading 19.3% of all money in the futures market behind them, along with 10.6% of tickets (third).

The San Antonio Spurs have shortened from +450 at the start of the playoffs to +325. They have 10.9% of tickets, first among remaining teams, and 16.8% of the handle, second only to the Thunder. 

One of the main reasons the Spurs have such a large share of the handle is that they have the largest reported futures bet at BetMGM, a $50,000 wager at +650 odds.

Over on the other side of the brackets, the Knicks (7% of bets, 6.5% of money) were only fourth in odds to win the Eastern Conference when the postseason commenced. Their title odds grew from +2200 to +900, the new leading mark in the East, after they dispatched the Atlanta Hawks in six games. 

While the Knicks are now the team to beat in their conference, they wouldn’t be in their current position without several unforeseen developments.

No result was more beneficial for the Knicks than the Celtics blowing a 3-1 lead against the Philadelphia 76ers. Boston was +550 in odds to win the NBA Finals (third) when the playoffs began and would’ve faced the New Yorkers in the second round had they advanced. Instead, Philly overcame their near-fatal position and will now battle the Knicks for a spot in the conference finals.

I know some people out there 100% believed in the 76ers' chances to come back after Game 4

Reveal yourselves 🧐 pic.twitter.com/D9OtGUmVLg

— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) May 3, 2026

The 76ers’ improbable victory shocked the odds board as they climbed from +25000 to +3500. Despite that, they only have 3.8% of tickets and 3.4% of the pot. 

🚨Notable Bet @DKSportsbook

A bettor placed $1,000 on the 76ers (+2500) on 4/27 to come back and win the series

Potential profit: $25,000 https://t.co/Yu0GcV9B9H

— DK Insights (@DKInsights_) May 2, 2026

The first-seed Detroit Pistons were also shockingly taken to seven games and needed to overcome a 3-1 deficit to get past the eighth-seeded Orlando Magic. Their title odds (+1700) are the same as they were at the start of the playoffs, but they have 10.4% of tickets, 8.5% of the handle, and one $25,000 wager at +1400 odds supporting them. 

Who else is in the picture?

Only three teams that are still alive have not been mentioned up to this point. One of those is the Los Angeles Lakers, who are both the biggest winners and losers of the postseason thus far.

LA was an enormous underdog against the Houston Rockets in the first round as both Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves were sidelined by injuries. Despite that, they raced ahead to a 3-0 lead and eventually closed the series out in six games. Their NBA Finals odds are down from +20000 at the beginning of the playoffs to +2500.

Unfortunately for the purple and gold, they now get to battle a Thunder team that won the Western Conference at 64-18, swept the Phoenix Suns in the first round, and is the largest series favorite of the second round (-2000). 

Reaves is back, but Doncic is still out and reportedly hasn’t begun running. Despite that, the Lakers have 9.1% of bets and 7.5% of money wagered backing them.

The Cleveland Cavaliers were +1600 in odds to win the Finals at the beginning of the playoffs, but they fell to +2000 after being taken to seven games by the Toronto Raptors. They’re looking up at the Knicks and the Pistons in the East.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are the final team remaining. Although they upset the Denver Nuggets in the first round, their odds lengthened from +8000 to +10000 due to injuries suffered by Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo, and Ayo Dosunmu. Chris Finch's team has 5.5% of bets, and 5.2% of money is in favor of the Wolves.

NBA Finals MVP odds picture

While the Thunder are in pole position to win the championship, the Spurs’ Victor Wembanyama is BetMGM bettors’ pick in the NBA Finals MVP odds market. A high percentage of tickets, 14.5%, and 7.5% of the handle are on the French sensation, who is down from +600 in the first round to +400 currently.

Only three players received more than 7.5% of the handle in this market. Two of them, Jamal Murray and Jayson Tatum, were already eliminated.

The third, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, has 7.6% of tickets and 14.3% of bets behind him. He sits at -135 to win his second straight Finals MVP after beginning the playoffs at -105.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

I may not be very good at it, but I love chess. Not to the level that I love basketball, the NBA, or the Lakers, but it’s not too far off!

The strategy, the tactical decisions, the way every player seems to have their own style and approach that forces you to play them as much as what the board is telling you to play, the way you can instantly switch from defending to attacking and back, the way a great move exhilarates and a blunder totally deflates you…there’s just not really another game quite like it.

In fact, after reading the above graf again, maybe I enjoy the game as much as I do exactly because it does remind me of basketball in a bunch of ways.

No, it’s not physically taxing in the same way as, say, defending Luka Dončić coming off a pick and roll or trying to fend off LeBron James in the post, but playing chess at the highest levels can put a massive toll on your body, and some believe that “a chess grandmaster’s stress reactions can mimic what elite athletes experience…based on breathing rates (which triple during competition), blood pressure (which elevates) and muscle contractions before, during and after major tournaments”.

What does any of this have to do with the Lakers right now, you might ask?

Well, first, in the aftermath of the Lakers’ upset win over the Rockets my mind reflexively goes to how much of the series mirrored a high-level chess match, with JJ Redick taking a lead in the opening with his superior game planning to help get his team an early lead, the Rockets getting their footing the middle game to try to come back, and then the Lakers leveraging their better position to execute a check mate and close things out.

And then, second, in a recent episode of the Mind the Game podcast, Austin Reaves recalled a story about having to carry around a chessboard on road trips his entire rookie season, courtesy of Rajon Rondo. This then led me to the biggest chess connection to the Lakers, which is Luka Dončić’s love of the 64 squares.

Dončić is a well-known lover of the game and once even had an AI-driven chess bot created in his likeness by chess.com. The Luka-bot would improve the more games it played, learning the tendencies of players who tested it and ultimately becoming good enough to beat elite players. It’s now one of the best bots on the site and nearly impossible to beat.

In any event, this has all led me to think about this year’s team and how they relate to chess. And, what better way to do that than to compare the players themselves to actual chess pieces?

If you’re not familiar with the game or the pieces themselves, don’t worry too much. I’ll do my best to explain my reasoning below. You can also learn more about the pieces and how they move here. With that, here we go…

Luka Dončić

Clearly, Luka is the queen — the game’s most powerful piece. Like the queen, Dončić is the game’s most ferocious attacking piece and is equally a threat from long distance and in close quarters and everywhere in between.

The queen also has full reign of the entire board, moving in whatever direction it likes for as far as it wants to go, which aptly describes how Luka traverses the court, getting to whatever spot he pleases, whether through craft, skill, or brute force. There’s no more dangerous a piece than the queen and there’s no more dangerous player than Luka.

Just ask any opponent he faced during the blazing heater that earned him Western Conference Player of the Month for March.

I know Luka is still out with injury, but when healthy and at the top of his game, there are few players in the league who can match the diversity of his skill set and all the ways he deploys it to take down opponents.

LeBron James

With Dončić out injured, LeBron put his crown back on and took on that same role to dominate the Rockets series and push the Lakers into the second round. That said, when everyone has been healthy this season, the man whose nickname is “The King” is more of a rook in the way he’s asked to play on these Lakers.

Rooks are an incredibly powerful piece whose forceful, straight-line, and limitless exploration of the board remind of LeBron streaking up court in transition for powerful dunks and (what remain) insane finishes at the rim.

Further, rooks are masterful end-game pieces who often take over games when both players’ queens come off the board and LeBron has long been a master in the clutch, making the right decision for the team to win the game instead of seeking out glory for himself. Again, ask the Rockets about how Game 3 ended.

Lastly, because they’re so powerful and important, Rooks can also greatly impact the game by giving themselves up in a sacrifice in order to open up space for another piece to attack and checkmate the opposition, which almost perfectly describes how LeBron, in the last part of the regular season, took on a lower usage role for this team so Dončić and Austin Reaves can cook.

Austin Reaves

Some might find this controversial, but I see Austin as a knight. Knights are tricky pieces that move in unorthodox ways and excel in tight spaces. They often deceive opponents, particularly in end-game situations, where their ability to hop around the board can lead to taking down queens and rooks just as easily as they would a pawn.

If this doesn’t perfectly describe how Austin manipulates defenses with quick changes of direction, playing in tight quarters and finishing in the paint under and around bigger defenders, I don’t know what does. Also, just like a knight, he is great in end-game situations, particularly when teaming up with a rook to control a bounty of space on the court — just as he has for so long with LeBron.

Rui Hachimura and Luke Kennard

Okay, so this one is as obvious as it is easy — these guys are the Lakers Bishops. Bishops are long-range snipers who help control the game from long distances, but can also do damage in close quarters when protected by their mates. This is exactly the role that Rui and Kennard fill on the Lakers, spacing the floor and targeting opponents from behind the arc.

But if they get pressured, they are also adept at moving in closer while maintaining their deadly accuracy.

Kennard and Rui were both deadly in this exact way vs. the Rockets, with Luke’s outside shooting driving the team’s success early in the series, and then Rui’s hot-shooting Game 6 helping to clinch the series and send the Lakers to the 2nd round.

Marcus Smart and Jake LaRavia

It might sound pejorative, but these two rugged wings are like center pawns. The two pawns directly in front of the king and queen control critical space in the middle of the board, often serving vital roles on both offense and defense.

These pawns help deflect opponents and keep them at bay, preventing them from penetrating past a certain point to protect the back line. The nature of them being the middle of the action give them great responsibility as defenders, often absorbing much of the offensive pressure from the other team and, if doing their job well, forcing the opposition to attack from different parts of the board.

Offensively, they help anchor in your main pieces, serving as complementary forces who can bring value when they create an outpost for your Knights and Bishops or when they advance in tandem up the board to protect each other.

These are the types of roles Smart and Jake serve for the Lakers, helping protect their teammates with their hard-nosed defense while also showing enough offensive utility to help win games. This is especially true of Marcus, who, as he did against Houston, showed enough two-way ability to help win the team games both by knocking down shots and working out of the post and by thwarting the Rockets’ offense with steals and drawn charges.

Deandre Ayton and Jaxson Hayes

If Smart and Jake are manning the center of the board, I see Ayton and Hayes operating more as flank pawns, serving in complementary roles to the pieces who operate in the middle of the action but are also critical to the rest of the game.

Flank pawns work in tandem with their mates in the middle, protecting them when they advance up the board for defensive stability but also can sneak outside near the edge of the board to pose practical problems on offense. And then, when they do advance up the board, they can anchor themselves in near the edge of the board, ready to sacrifice themselves for the Queen or a Rook to deliver the death blow.

For these Lakers, this is how Ayton and Hayes operate.

Defensively, they back up their perimeter partners to deny driving lanes and protect the rim, but sometimes have to step up themselves and defend on an island while others assist them. Ayton is particularly adept at holding up in this exact way, defending post players one-on-one on the block while also venturing further out to check perimeter players on switches.

On offense, they are constantly trying to sneak behind the opposing defense to get closer to the rim, either to finish themselves or to screen a defender so Dončić, James or Reaves can score. There’s a thankless nature to the work they do, but without their efforts, the team would not be nearly as successful. In this way, they’re very similar to a flank pawn who, if the board shifts a certain way, can become the most dangerous passed pawn that pulls attention there way for a more critical piece to do damage on another part of the board.

There are many more analogies to make regarding the Lakers and the other game I love. But I think the most basic one is that, just as in chess, a key to the Lakers’ success is as much mental as anything they do physically. By locking in, playing with discipline, and leaning into the nuances of their own gameplan — while also being smart enough to know how to disrupt their opponents — the Lakers can position themselves to win any game in front of them.

You can follow Darius on BlueSky at @forumbluegoldand find more of his Lakers coverage on the Laker Film Room Podcast.

The Orlando Magic fired coach Jamahl Mosley one day after the team was eliminated from the 2026 NBA playoffs in a Game 7 against the Detroit Pistons.

The eighth-seeded Magic had a 3-1 series lead over the Pistons, who are the Eastern Conference's No. 1 seed, before losing three games in a row.

"We're grateful to Jamahl for all he's done for the Orlando Magic," said team president Jeff Weltman in a statement. "We appreciate his leadership and the positive contributions he made as head coach. While this was a difficult decision, we feel it's time for a new voice and fresh perspective. We wish Jamahl and his family nothing but the best."

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Game 1 of an NBA playoff series is a tricky spot for prop bettors. And that’s what we have tonight, with the Philadelphia 76ers and New York Knicks tossing up the ball on their Round 2 set.

In the postseason, team tactics change game-to-game, and bettors who can get ahead of those adjustments can find value in the player props. But in series openers, there’s an aura of mystery around each team’s approach.

With regular-season meetings and carryover from the previous series swaying the market, the Game 1 unknowns level the playing field between bookies and bettors. Hopefully, we can take advantage of it.

Here are my best NBA picks and prop predictions for our 76ers vs. Knicks predictions on Monday, May 4.

Best 76ers vs Knicks props for Game 1

Player	Pick
Joel Embiid	Under 9.5 rebounds	-135
Mikal Bridges	Over 1.5 threes	+130
Josh Hart	Over 4.5 assists	-112

Game 1 Prop #1: Joel Embiid Under 9.5 rebounds

-135 at bet365

Joel Embiid's return was the turning point in the Philadelphia 76ers' series win over the Celtics, specifically on defense.

Embiid played drop coverage on screen action and plugged up the paint, allowing his teammates to put pressure on the perimeter with little threat from Boston’s bigs from outside.

Against the New York Knicks, however, Embiid matches up with Karl-Anthony Towns and Josh Hart, who are comfortable playing away from the paint and can stretch the floor. The Knicks are running Towns as a point forward out of the high post, and Hart has an active engine on offense.

While Embiid was a beast on the boards vs. Boston, recording double figures in three of four games, he won’t be in the primary rebounding position in this Round 2 series. And with a sore hip (plus bum knees and a recent appendectomy) along with a quick turnaround to travel to MSG, Embiid’s mobility won't be great in Game 1. 

Player projections sit between 7.2 and 11.5, but most models are short of nine rebounds, with my number at 8.6 boards from Philly’s big.

Game 1 Prop #2: Mikal Bridges Over 1.5 made threes

+130 at bet365

No one caught more flak in the first round than Mikal Bridges.

New York’s shooting guard was MIA for most of the series with Atlanta, scoring 11 or less in the first five games before suddenly showing up with 24 points on 10-for-12 shooting in Game 6. That includes a 2-for-2 mark from beyond the arc.

Bridges, who shot just 6-for-17 from 3-point range in Round 1, brings that momentum in this matchup with Philadelphia. 

The 76ers did a great job clamping down on Boston’s studs from outside, and while the Celtics struggled from distance, it wasn’t all Philly’s doing. Almost 83% of Boston’s 3-point attempts came without a defender within at least four feet, as the C’s just whiffed on open looks.

Philadelphia presents a tougher interior defense than the smaller Hawks, which will push New York to the perimeter and force the Knicks to fire up from deep. Bridges, who shot less than three triples per game in Round 1, averages more than five 3-point attempts per home game on the year.

Player forecasts range between 1.4 and 1.9 makes for Bridges, with the bulk of models short of two triples. But this is a bet I’m willing to go against the grain with, given the matchup and plus-money return.

Game 1 Prop #3: Josh Hart Over 4.5 assists

-112 at bet365

As mentioned above, Hart could draw Embiid as his primary defender should the 76ers opt to throw smaller forwards at Towns. 

Hart is very active on offense and isn’t afraid to mix it up in the paint, but he won't find a clean look at the rim with the Sixers’ 7-footer shadowing him. 

New York will try to draw Embiid out, and Hart will be a conduit for spot-up shooters or cutters to the rim. He dished out five or more assists in the first three games against Atlanta and finished the series averaging 4.3 assists on 5.5 potential dimes.

In three regular-season matchups with Philadelphia, Hart enjoyed some of his best passing performances. He recorded six, seven, and nine helpers in those outings. His projections for Game 1 bounce between 4.6 and 5.4 assists, with my number at five dimes tonight.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.