At last year’s Trade Deadline, the Twins faced a reckoning. After taking the AL Central title in 2023 and experiencing their first playoff success in over two decades, they stumbled down the stretch in ’24 to a disappointing 82-80 record. Now, the bottom had fallen out. A 13-1 drubbing on July 30th at the hands of the Red Sox dropped their record to 51-57, good for fourth place and 12 games back of the pace in the wide-open Central. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey pulled the trigger on a deadline fire sale for the ages, trading 10 players off their big-league roster. Those moved included three-time All-Star Carlos Correa — in what amounted to a salary dump — and five relievers, headlined by closer Jhoan Duran.

Minnesota Twins

2025 record: 70-92 (4th, AL Central)
2026 FanGraphs projection: 79-83 (3rd, AL Central)

Despite spurious reports that he had been traded to the Red Sox, the Twins did hold onto ace Joe Ryan, as well as fellow starter Pablo López and longtime center fielder Byron Buxton, who has repeatedly affirmed that he will exercise his no-trade clause if the Twins attempt to move him. For his part, Buxton had something of a career year at 31, smashing 35 homers while playing in 120 games for the first time since 2017. Ryan, too, took the next step, striking out 194 in 171 innings while earning his first All-Star berth. Rookie second baseman Luke Keaschall and sophomore starter Simeon Woods Richardson looked the part as MLB regulars.

That’s pretty much where the bright spots ended. At least the Twins were consistent, finishing 23rd in both runs scored and runs allowed. Everyday players Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, and Brooks Lee were relied upon to shoulder their share of the load and floundered, combining to end the season below replacement level despite playing in a combined 385 games. On the other side of the ball, manager Rocco Baldelli’s cupboard was left threadbare by the deadline moves as he finished the season with a patchwork group of journeyman and underperforming prospects.

Baldelli was relieved of his duties after the season and Falvey departed “mutually” in a shock January shake-up that occurred about a month after Joe Pohlad took over from his brother Tom as the Twins’ controlling owner. The front office, now headed by Falvey’s former deputy Jeremy Zoll, has been largely inactive this offseason, signing veterans Josh Bell, Victor Caratini, and Taylor Rogers to short-term, low-risk deals. López, one of the few proven contributors on the roster, is undergoing Tommy John surgery that will cost him the entire season. Ryan, the team’s unquestioned ace, was scratched from a scheduled spring start last Saturday with lower back tightness (though he reportedly got encouraging news from the MRI that followed). And Buxton, the team’s de facto captain, cannot reasonably be relied upon to stay on the field over the course of a full season.

And yet FanGraphs’ projection has them finishing ahead of not only the White Sox but the Guardians in the Central under new manager Derek Shelton (late of the Pirates). They anticipate Buxton taking 473 plate appearances — something, again, he did for the first time since 2017 last year. They’re also bullish on Wallner not only taking a step forward with the bat but no longer being a defensive liability in his age-28 season while expecting 23-year-old Kaelen Culpepper to be a key contributor as a rookie.

To be candid, I don’t see what the algorithm is seeing. Losing a half-season of Correa, Duran, and company with only marginal replacements and expecting to win nine more games seems like a pipe dream. Given how placid their front office has been this offseason, I don’t think even the Twins expect to fare that well. To be fair, FanGraphs was also counting on a healthy season from López in their calculations, though his 2.6 WAR can’t account for the large swing they project.

Given the busy offseason of the White Sox — headlined by the signing of Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami — and the Guardians’ ability to exceed projections each year, Minnesota has a very real chance to enter the race to the bottom of the division (no matter how irrationally optimistic Pohlad seems to be despite refusing to invest). Expect them to use this season to assess whether young talent like Lee, Culpepper, and Walker Jenkins can be part of the next competitive Twins team while once again lying in wait as one of the league’s few true sellers at the deadline.

More Pinstripe Alley MLB team season previews can be found here.

Morning, all!

ESPN wasn’t terribly impressed with the Rangers’ offseason, giving them a C+ and noting that they saved some money but didn’t make the team any better.

Sebastian Walcott had a good feeling going into his elbow surgery and wasn’t surprised he ended up only needing internal brace surgery.

Nathan Eovaldi was working mostly on his curveball and cutter in Wednesday’s win over Cleveland.

A year ago Jake Burger’s 4 year old daughter had open heart surgery, and yesterday Burger marked the anniversary by hitting a homer.

Shawn McFarland continues his top 30 Ranger countdown with a look at number 27, left handed pitcher Josh Trentadue.

I saw the movie ‘Redux Redux’ last night, an action movie about a woman who travels to parallel universes to punish someone who did her wrong, over and over and over again.

Weirdly enough, that got me to thinking about a Dodgers question for today. This doesn’t even need to be in the realm of the film’s tagline — “revenge on repeat” — but can be anything. For instance, I might try to prevent the St. Louis Cardinals from trading Willie McGee to an American League team in August 1990, which might or might notlead to Eddie Murray winning a batting title. You know, the real important stuff.

Today’s question what is one Dodgers-related action you would try to change in another universe? A game, a transaction, a specific action? Let us now in the comments below.

Here are the lineups for today’s game.

Phillies:

Nationals:

Garrett Stubbs hits a homer today.

1. Charlie Condon (563 points, 19 ballots)

Condon’s 2024 professional debut was a bit of a dud, but his first full season as a professional saw the 22-year-old righty slugger hit his way to Double-A. Condon received a MLB record-tying $9.25 million bonus as the third-overall pick in the 2024 draft (about $180k over slot) because of his huge offensive ceiling. He can translate his immense power into games, he hits for average, and has rare defensive ability for his size.

Condon was a one-man wrecking crew in 2024 for Georgia, as the 6’6”, 216-pound hitter smashed 37 homers — a record in the NCAA’s “BBCOR” bats era — and won the prestigious Golden Spikes award as the top amateur baseball player in the country. Given that success, it’s hard to believe that Condon (who played first, third, and all three outfield positions for Georgia) not only went undrafted as a high schooler but also was a walk-on who redshirted in 2022.

In 2023, Condon stepped into the Dawgs’ lineup and was an immediate success, swatting 25 homers in 56 games en route to a video game line of .386/.484/.800 in 254 plate appearances. That certainly got him on draft radars, and the aforementioned 2024 power explosion rocketed him up to, for many, the very top of the draft. In 304 plate appearances over 60 games for Georgia in 2024, Condon not only hit 37 homers, he also added 20 doubles and a triple while walking 16 more times than he struck out. In all, Condon hit a massive .433/.556/1.009 in 2024!

The Rockies assigned Condon straight to High-A Spokane, as befits a player many tabbed to move very quickly through the system. Unfortunately, Condon was downright bad for Spokane, hitting an anemic .180/.248/.270 (48 wRC+) with 34 strikeouts compared with four walks in 109 plate appearances while dealing with a bruised thumb. Condon did have six extra-base hits, including a homer, and four stolen bases (which is more than his entire collegiate total in two years at Georgia). That performance certainly soured many on Condon, but he still entered 2025 on many top 100 lists.

The 2025 season didn’t get off to a good start for Condon, who suffered a non-displaced left wrist fracture in his very first minor league spring training game. The injury kept Condon out until mid-May (after a nine-game rehab stint with the complex league team) when the Rockies sent Condon back to Spokane. Condon was much more successful in his return engagement, hitting .312/.431/.420 in 167 plate appearances across 35 games with three homers and six doubles (134 wRC+). The Rockies promoted Condon to Double-A Hartford on July 1st, where he was 1.5 years younger than league average — and not long after, Condon was selected to the prestigious MLB Futures Game (he started at first base and went 0-for-3).

In 237 plate appearances with Hartford, Condon had a .235/.342/.465 batting line with 11 homers among his 21 extra-base hits, which equated to an impressive 132 wRC+. There were still warts on the profile — Condon has struck out in 28% of his plate appearances in Double-A (walking in 11%) and he seemingly slid down the defensive spectrum from a third baseman/outfielder to primarily a first baseman (one error in 74 games there) who occasionally played left field and third base (two errors in five games there). Fans expecting the monstrous power Condon showed at Georgia no doubt expect more too, but at the end of the day a 132 wRC+ in Condon’s initial exposure to Double-A is pretty encouraging.

Condon finished the season in the Arizona Fall League to replace some of the at-bats he lost with his delayed start to the year. Against a less polished set of pitchers, Condon feasted with a .337/.439/.434 line in 98 plate appearances, including a homer, two triples, and a double. He was also named as a Fall Star.

This spring, Condon received a big league spring training invite, where the Rockies have played Condon in the outfield corners as well to lean into his defensive versatility. Condon is off to a hot start, hitting a massive homer earlier this week against the Angels, and discussed some of his goals with Purple Row’s Sam Bradfield last weekend.

Here’s some looks at Condon during the Arizona Fall League (including an absolute bomb of a grand slam at the 2:15 mark):

Here are some of Condon’s 2025 highlights.

Multiple outlets ranked Condon atop their 2024 draft rankings and some of them still have Condon in their top 100.

Keith Law of the Athletic had Condon as the number one player in the draft, then ranked Condon 46th on his top 100 (number two in the system) earlier this month:

Condon’s first full pro season got off to a miserable start, as he broke his wrist making a diving catch in spring training, missing seven weeks before he got back to High A. He hit fairly well there, with his power diminished likely as a result of the injury, posting a .312/.431/.420 line with a modest chase rate of 20 percent. He then moved to Double A and hit .235/.342/.465 as he had real difficulty picking up off-speed stuff. Condon has electric bat speed and hammers fastballs, showing at least 70 power in college, but he moved his hands back up in 2025 after dropping them in his draft year, and I think that’s one of the reasons he’s not reacting to breaking pitches or changeups that well. (There are, unfortunately, rumors that while he was at Georgia, the Dogs were stealing signs, so their hitters might have known what was coming.) He did bounce back a little in the AFL, reaching 111.6 mph and showing better swing decisions, although the pitching out there was not close to what he saw nightly in Double A.

Condon is a good enough athlete to handle an outfield corner, though the Rockies played him primarily at first base last year, as it’s a position of real need for them and he has experience on the dirt at third base. He has 30-plus homer upside, easily, and the patience and zone awareness to be a valuable hitter even if he hits .240-.250. The new regime in Denver should have a clear plan for helping him get back to the hitter he was in 2024 when he was the No. 3 pick in the draft.

FanGraphs just ranked Condon 67th overall as a 50 FV player, second in the system (after ranking him fourth among draft prospects in 2024), with a 70 raw power and 60 future game power grade to go along with a 60 arm:

With two hand injuries in the rear-view mirror, it’s time for Condon to prove he can tap into the plus-plus power that made him such a coveted amateur prospect.

Condon put up cartoonish numbers at Georgia, homering 62 times in two seasons, including 37 times in 2024 alone, when he hit .433/.446/1.009 in a Golden Spikes-winning campaign. He was considered by many the top prospect in that year’s draft, and when he fell to the third overall pick, Colorado seemed a perfect match of offensive upside and future park.

It may still prove to be. Eric was (and remains) skeptical of Condon even while he was riding roughshod over the SEC, and his first year-and-a-half of pro at-bats have only validated pre-draft concerns about a grooved bat path and trouble recognizing spin. You can wave away a rough pro debut, as post-draft cameos are kind of awkward, and he was battling through a bone spur in his finger at the time anyway. But even as a wrist fracture last spring complicates the evaluation of his 2025 performance, it’s becoming fair to wonder how much pop Condon will bring into games.

There’s little doubt about his raw impact. Condon is a big guy with plus bat speed and a powerful swing that produces data commensurate with the visual evaluation. His 90th-percentile exit velocity was nearly 106 mph and his max was over 112, both of which are plus. He also had a 44% hard-hit rate and a 13 degree average launch angle that looks, well, like a match for a guy who bashed 60 homers in college. Still, he only homered 14 times in 99 games while running a 131 wRC+ across High- and Double-A, which are both fine in the aggregate but underwhelming for a player with this skill set. This coincided with a move to first base — perhaps just to protect the wrist, perhaps not. We’ll see what Colorado’s new regime decides to do here, because Condon has played elsewhere and looked like a perfectly fine corner outfielder as a pro.

Ultimately, the power potential here is too great to ignore despite everything else. There’s enough noise and hand injuries lurking to think that there’s some small chance of a big breakout coming, but even if there’s not, Condon projects as a 2-3 WAR player with 35-plus homer potential, even if he’s flawed elsewhere.

MLB Pipeline (who had him second among draft prospects) ranks Condon 70th overall as a 55 FV player with a 55 grade on his power hit, and arm tools:

The 6-foot-6 right-handed hitter still uses the largely upright stance, bent at the knees, lower hands and simple mechanics that brought him so much success at Georgia, but without the same impact. With the Bulldogs, he showed he could hit the ball out of the park to all fields with plenty of bat speed and leverage. While he’s continued to draw walks, his overall approach has suffered as a pro. The injuries clearly have played a part, especially in getting to his raw power, but he’s struggled against softer stuff, with a 40 percent miss rate against breaking and offspeed stuff at all stops in 2025. His approach was better in the AFL, albeit without impact.

In college, Condon played all over the outfield (where his arm plays well) and at third, but since joining the Rockies, it’s been almost all first base, with a little corner outfield mixed in. The corner-infield spot is his most likely home long-term, which puts more pressure on the power to show up. The Rockies, for their part, aren’t as concerned, thinking that his all-around hitting is coming around and the pop will follow.

Multiple scouts have drawn comparisons between Condon and Kris Bryant. While, of course, Bryant’s tough tenure with the Rockies (three more years!) have left a sour taste in the mind of fans, he deservedly won the Rookie of the Year and NL MVP awards in his first two years as a big leaguer and has been an All-Star four times. Condon has the kind of offensive potential and defensive utility that could make him a star in the league for several years (especially if he is able to get his power into games), so he deservedly ranks in this range in the PuRPs poll — he was number two on my list as a 55 FV player.

Condon’s 2025 results weren’t problem-free (strikeouts in particular) and I’m worried about his slide down the defensive spectrum (but am encouraged by him playing in the outfield this spring). Still, it was nice to see him doing some damage at Double-A. He should begin the year in Triple-A Albuquerque and could force his way into the lineup sometime this season, though the role and impact is still up in the air.

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The Cardinals are tanking.

Oh, they can deny it all they want and claim it’s a “rebuild that’s not a rebuild” like a certain team we know did, but this is full-out tanking.

It’s not surprising, given that they have a new executive in charge in Chaim Bloom, their new President of Baseball Operations who formerly held that role with the Red Sox. And, in fact, Bloom made a couple of key trades with his former team, sending Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras to Boston. (That means that Cubs fans won’t see Willson at Wrigley this year, and in fact the Cubs won’t see him at all until the final three games of the 2026 regular season.)

What’s left is… a bunch of guys. Their No. 1 starter is (checks notes) probably Dustin May, who they got in one of those Boston deals. May’s biggest claim to “fame” is that he’s been injured in almost all of his six MLB seasons. He was once a Top 20 prospect in all of baseball. But, you know, prospects bust.

The rest of their rotation is guys who have either failed elsewhere or are wannabes: Michael McGreevy, Andre Pallante, Matthew Liberatore… you get the idea. The bullpen, same thing, mostly.

Lars Nootbaar and Alec Burleson are probably the Cardinals’ two best hitters and both have been said to be potential trade targets before the season begins. I wouldn’t be surprised. They don’t have a single player on their roster who hit even 20 home runs in 2025.

Rebuilds can work. Just ask Theo Epstein, for example. But the Cardinals are likely going to have to hit rock bottom before they come back. Okay by me.

A bit of history to look out for: The Cardinals lost 91 games in 2023. The last time they had lost that many before then was 1990 (92 losses), and before that 93 in 1978. However, no Cardinals team has lost more than 93 games since 1913 (!), when they lost 99, and no Cardinals team has lost 100 since 1908 (105). Both of the last two numbers could be threatened this year. Seems Oli Marmol likely won’t last past this year as manager.

And by the time the Cubs see the Cardinals, they could be buried in last place in the NL Central. The first Cubs/Cardinals game is Game 58 of the Cubs season. Then they’ll play 10 times in a 37-game stretch from early July to mid-August, and not after that. Thanks, schedule-makers.

Key departures: Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Miles Mikolas, Nolan Arenado, Brendan Donovan, Andre Granillo

Key arrivals: Scott Blewett, Dustin May, Hunter Dobbins, Justin Bruihl, Ryne Stanek, Zack Thompson, Nelson Velázquez, George Soriano, Jared Shuster

At Wrigley Field: July 3-4-5 and Aug. 14-15-16

At St. Louis: May 29-30-31 and July 27-28-29-30

SB Nation team site:Viva el Birdos

This series will continue tomorrow with a look at the NL East.