As the Mets' 2025 season spiraled out of control, with the team falling from 45-24 in the middle of June to 83-79 and out of the playoff field, there were lots of things that went wrong.
But the main culprit was a starting rotation that didn't have enough depth to withstand the injuries that hit it, had most of its members underperform down the stretch, and wasn't seriously bolstered externally at any point during the season.
Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns spoke the day after the season ended about run prevention (both pitching and defense) being a big reason for the team's downfall and a huge point of emphasis this offseason.
And as he took responsibility for things going wrong, Stearns was blunt about how he handled the team's in-season pitching woes. He also said one of the things he learned was that he needed to be more proactive.
"From a roster construction perspective, on the run prevention side of the ball, we didn't do a good enough job of fortifying our team when we had injuries midseason," Stearns said. "Clearly, that was a point in our season where on the run prevention side of things we went from a very good team to a team that wasn't good enough to maintain a sizable lead -- not only in the division, but in the playoff chase."
Stearns added:
"I think holistically as I look at our pitching staff, we needed to do more over the course of the season. That is very clear. What we were faced with at at the deadline? I think our fanbase would be perhaps even more upset if we had made some of those moves. But the entirety of our run prevention unit was not good enough this year."
While Stearns is well aware of what needs to change ahead of 2026, the Mets are in a tricky spot when it comes to maneuverability.
In other words, with so many starting pitchers already under team control for next season, how will New York make big changes while also incorporating some of their homegrown pitchers and adding help via trade and/or free agency?
As things currently stand, here are the starting pitching options who are under team control for 2026:
Sean Manaea ($25 million owed in 2026, under contract through 2027)
Kodai Senga ($15.4 million owed in 2026, under contract through 2027)
Clay Holmes ($13 million owed in 2026, under contract through 2027)
David Peterson (arbitration-eligible for the final time)
Nolan McLean
Brandon Sproat
Jonah Tong
Christian Scott
Frankie Montas will earn $17 million in 2026 in what is the second and final year of the deal he signed last offseason, but is expected to miss the year due to Tommy John surgery. Tylor Megill is arbitration-eligible for the second time, but -- like Montas -- is expected to be out for the season because of Tommy John surgery.
Of the veterans above, all but Holmes struggled badly this season. And aside from Holmes, they all have huge question marks attached to them.
Manaea missed the first half of the season and pitched the second half with loose bodies in his elbow. The results were ugly, as he posted a 5.64 ERA and was eventually removed from the rotation.
Senga was fantastic until hurting his hamstring in June. After he came back, he struggled so badly that he was sent to the minors. Once there, he was unable to get his mechanics right, and did not pitch again in the majors over the final few weeks of the year. Stearns said after the season that it would be "foolish" to count on Senga for 30 starts in 2026 given what's happened the last two seasons.
Peterson had a first half that got him an All-Star nod, but fell off in a big way late. From Aug. 6 through the end of the season, Peterson had an 8.42 ERA, though the 3.88 FIP he had during that span suggests he also got pretty unlucky on balls that were put in play.
As far as McLean, Sproat, and Tong, one of them -- at least for now -- is unlike the others.
McLean was mostly dominant in 48.0 innings over eight big league starts, posting a 2.06 ERA (2.97 FIP) and 1.04 WHIP while striking out 57 batters -- a rate of 10.7 per nine. His stuff was filthy, and his poise and mound presence was off the charts.
Sproat and Tong both showed flashes, but it will be a surprise if either one enters spring training as a favorite for a rotation spot. In Tong's case, it seems likely he'll start the year with Triple-A Syracuse since he made just two starts there before his promotion to the bigs.
Scott, who should be healthy and ready to go after having Tommy John surgery during the 2024 season, is a nice depth option to have.
After dissecting all of that, it's easy to envision this kind of scenario:
Holmes (who stretched out to 165.2 innings and excelled while transitioning from reliever to starter), Manaea (who flashed serious potential in 2024 and had an uneven 2025), and McLean (who looks like a possible frontline starter) are earmarked to open the 2026 season in the rotation, with the two other members to be added via trade and/or free agency.
That would mean a decision on Senga, who is coming off two lost seasons and is under contract through 2027. It would also mean a decision on Peterson, who is out of minor league options and has shown the ability to excel in the bullpen.
Regarding who the Mets could target for those empty spots?
It can be argued that they should be looking for one frontline level starter and another who can pitch in the middle of the rotation.
Looking at the free agent market, there are some intriguing top of the rotation options, including Ranger Suarez, Michael King, and Framber Valdez. But all of them are on the wrong side of 30, and only Valdez has had a real extended run of success pitching at an ace level. Dylan Cease is an interesting option and has an enticing arsenal, but he's had two down years out of the last three.
There's also the fact that Stearns has suggested he doesn't love making huge free agent commitments to starting pitchers.
So perhaps the Mets sign a middle of the rotation option and turn to the trade market for the top of the rotation guy.
With one of the best farm systems in baseball, the Mets should theoretically be able to trade for pretty much any starting pitcher who becomes available. And it's possible a bunch of really interesting ones are out there this winter.
That includes Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins, Joe Ryan of the Twins, and possibly Tarik Skubal of the Tigers. Skubal is set for free agency after the 2026 season, and if Detroit determines that he's likely to walk after the year, they'll have an enormous decision on their hands this offseason -- and the ability to get a huge haul back for someone who will be coming off back-to-back Cy Young seasons.
In the event the Mets do add a frontline starter and a middle of the rotation arm to a group that also includes Holmes, Manaea, and McLean, the question becomes what they do when some of their young talent is ready to contribute. The answer, as the Mets found out this season, is that you can never have enough pitching.
