Morning everyone and welcome back to another beautiful Friday!

The A’s made the expected announcement late yesterday afternoon that staff leader Luis Severino will indeed get the ball for the Athletics on Opening Day in Toronto to take on the Blue Jays:

Luis Severino will start for the A’s in Toronto on Opening Day, per Mark Kotsay. This will be Severino’s second consecutive Opening Day start with the A’s and third overall.

— Martín Gallegos (@MartinJGallegos) March 19, 2026

This announcement comes as almost zero surprise. Severino is the unquestioned best option for the assignment and his salary matches that. The right-hander has only pitched in one spring contest for the A’s so far but he made three starts for the Dominican Republic recently, including two during the World Baseball Classic. In those contests he looked sharp, reaching 40, 60, and 68, with his final start coming against the United States in the semi-finals. The 32-year-old has pitched in tons of big games during his career and A’s fans are hoping he can be that guy for them soon.

Still, last year’s quick start on the first day of the long regular season did not portend to coming success. Instead Severino was a tale of two pitchers, struggling at home while thriving and looking every bit the part of the pitcher that the A’s gave a record-setting contract to. He definitely had his moments and hot streaks, but he also had some epic meltdowns as well. Severino ultimately made almost every start, save for a few near the end of the year when the season was already over. In his first year in the Green & Gold Severino finished with a 4.54 ERA across 29 starts, racking up a solid 2.5 WAR in the process.

This’ll be his second Opening Day start for the A’s in as many years, and third in his career after taking the ball for the New York Yankees back in 2018. In that start way back then, he pitched 5 2/3 innings of one-hit ball against…. the Toronto Blue Jays. And with the Athletics last year he also had a shutout appearance as he held down the Seattle Mariners to three hits over six strong innings of work. He’d end up not getting the well-deserved win that evening, and it wasn’t even a sign of things to come as Sevy had a roller coaster first year with the A’s.

The only other options the A’s could have been seriously considering were left-hander Jeffrey Springs (who is expected to get the ball for Game 2) or possibly Luis Morales. Springs on paper would seem like nearly as good a bet to get the Opening Day nod, but the lefty hasn’t had a good spring so far and notoriously got off to a horrible start to his season last year. Morales meanwhile is just barely not a rookie anymore after making 9 starts for the A’s down the final stretch last year. It wasn’t completely out of the realm of possibility after the A’s went with another inexperienced rookie in Kyle Muller just a couple of years ago, but with Morales’ lack of innings under his belt, not to mention experience, it would have been plain mean to send him into Toronto on Opening Day, against the defending American League Champions, no less.

Speaking of the Jays, Severino will have quite the challenge for him waiting north of the border. Though they lost star shortstop Bo Bichette this offseason this Jays offense is just as dangerous as the Athletics’ lineup. Anchored by likely future Hall-of-Famer Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the Blue Jays also have star hitters like George Springer and Alejando Kirk, not to mention quality bats like Daulton Varsho, Addison Barger and brief-Athletic Ernie Clement. Oh, add in the wild card in Kazuma Okamoto the slugging third baseman from overseas. On the plus side for Severino, he’s done well against Toronto in his career (3.86 ERA in 16 starts), and add in that Vlad Jr., Kirk, Okamoto and Clement are right-handed hitters. So there’s that small advantage.

Wasn’t really a surprise but now we have it official. Who else is ready to see Severino shut down the defending AL Champions on their home turf next Friday? Something to get excited about! Have a good weekend A’s fans!

A’s Coverage:

• AN Exclusive: Blogfather Toes The Rubber With Pitching Coach Scott Emerson
• AN Exclusive: Blogfather Catches Up With Starting Pitcher Jacob Lopez
• Athletics drop one to the White Sox 6-4
• Eyeball Scout Wowed By 12— Win: Lots To Love
• March Reminder: Opening Day Rosters Matter More To The Fans
• A’s Lose To Texas 7-6 in Spring Training Matchup
• Can Muncy’s glove catch up to his bat at third base?
• A’s Slug Their Way To Fifth Straight Cactus League Victory
• What Have We Learned So Far In Spring Training?
• Jacob Wilson Has a Message For A’s Fans in the Bay Area
• Young, talented Athletics need veterans to show the way
• Here’s the A’s player pool for their Spring Breakout game
• FOX5, Silver State Sports Network to broadcast A’s games this season
• How Worried Should A’s Be About NBA Expansion in Las Vegas?

MLB News and Interest:

• Blue Jays starter Trey Yesavage to begin season on IL
• Former Athletic Jurickson Profar loses appeal, to serve 162-game suspension
• Rays shortstop Taylor Walls to begin season on IL
• Giants option Carson Wisenhunt, Jesus Rodriguez
• Nationals option Josiah Gray, Robert Hassell III
• Caleb Durbin wins Red Sox third base job; Marcelo Mayer likely to play second base
• Shortstop Paul deJong won’t opt out of Yankees deal
• Infielder Dylan Moore triggers opt out in Phillies deal
• MLB joins prediction market with Polymarket deal
• Barry Bonds, CC Sabathia to join Netflix to call Yankees-Giants Opening Night
• World Baseball Classic thriving, MLB considers midseason tournament
• Today in Baseball History

Best of X:

Any chance the front office gets the green light for something like that?

Insiders to @ByRobertMurray on a Nick Kurtz mega-deal 👀💰

“Kurtz is 22 with a year of service… They’d have to do a monster deal, IMO… I would say if it’s not a 10 year deal, kick rocks.”

“If he waits, he could get a Juan Soto type deal.” pic.twitter.com/o3mmRKMLbs

— SleeperAthletics (@SleeperAth) March 19, 2026

A fun rabbit hole to go down…

The idea that Oakland “never had a stadium plan” is completely false.

There were REAL, viable paths to keep the A’s in Oakland.

So what actually happened? 🧵👇🏻

— (Un)Rooted In Oakland (@OaklandRooted) March 19, 2026

Would the A’s have made the same request as the Padres regarding Mason Miller?

The Padres told Team USA that Mason Miller could only pitch in a save situation.

The Yankees told Team USA that David Bednar was unavailable.

The Cubs told Venezuela that Daniel Palencia could only pitch in a save situation.

There were other pitchers Venezuela didn’t have…

— Christian (@Christian_NYYST) March 18, 2026

Sneak peak of what’s to come on Sunday:

Watching the Phillies vs. Twins Spring breakout game & there have been no less than 56 “dings” or text alerts in 2minutes & I now understand the fury of the chat from the Live stream we did the other night with @baseballisdead_ . #KingDing

— Dallas Braden (@DALLASBRADEN209) March 19, 2026

As the Red Sox approach Opening Day, it’s time to start taking at look at the other American League playoff contenders. Next up, a team that’s led by an MVP candidate.

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What’s this team’s deal?

In 2024 the Royals bounced back from a 106-loss season to win 86 games and finish in second place in the AL Central. Those Royals would sweep their Wild Card series against the Baltimore Orioles before falling to the Yankees in the ALDS. It looked like a Kansas City miracle. 2025 would see a chunk of that progress fall back to earth. Regression to the mean comes for us all. But they still won 82 games last year.

This winter the Royals added outfielders Starling Marte and Lane Thomas. They’ll join top prospect Jac Caglianone in his sophomore season in the majors. Caglianone is fresh off a WBC run with Team Italy that saw him slash .286/.500/.571 with a home run and a K:BB of 4:5. Extreme sample and quality sizes abound with the WBC, but this is a guy who put up a OPS north of 1.000 in AAA. They’re expecting some runs like that mixed into a full season.

How good are they?

Bobby Witt Jr. was a superstar again and finished fourth in AL MVP voting. He was an All Star. He won a Silver Slugger and a Gold Glove. When you commit to essentially a forever deal with a player, that’s what you want to see.

KC also saw a breakout season for third baseman Maikel Garcia. He finished 14th in MVP voting, was an All Star, won a Silver Slugger, and earned himself an extension that runs at least through 2030. Oh yeah, he also won WBC MVP this week after Venezuela took the championship. From Opening Day 2025 to Opening Day 2026 he’s had a pretty good year.

Vinnie Pasquantino bounced back from an injury-shortened 2024 season to play in 160 games last year, hitting .264/.323/.475 with a personal best 32 home runs. “Where’s the f’ing wine?“ indeed. Pasquatch looks ready to be the solid contributor at first base they need. Especially when he’s beaned up.

The starting rotation features Cole Ragans, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Noah Cameron, and Kris Bubic. The Royals had one of the better rotations in the game last season by ERA and are set to do so again with this crew. Lugo and Wacha are in their mid-30s, but the other three are all under 30.

They acquired former Red Sox pitcher and Matt Strahm to shore up the bullpen.

You may remember Aaron Sanchez from his time on the Blue Jays a decade ago. Well, he’s in camp as a non-roster invitee and is still just 33 years old. Old friend John Schreiber is still there, too.

There are a lot of questions in the rotation — even if it can be good. The lineup is Witt, Pasquantino, Garcia, and Perez with maybe Caglianone joining them. They need a bounce-back season from Jonathan India.

The WBC featured a number of Royals across the teams in the tournament and there is talent here, but is there enough? Bobby Witt Jr. is still just one person in the lineup.

Who’s their most likeable player?

Most likeable isn’t always synonymous with best, but in this instance there’s a strong case for it. Bobby Witt Jr. is always playing hard out there and looks like he’s loving every second of it. How can you not root for that?

Who’s their least likeable player?

I almost want to say Salvador Perez because it feels like he’s always hitting against the Red Sox. As it turns out though, .276/.308/.483 isn’t his best split against a team. And his 16 homers are just second to teams not in the AL Central (he has 17 against the Yankees). That’s not really enough to override his general status as a catching legend. He’s been around so long he feels like a familiar opponent but without real hard feelings.

Michael Wacha, has, if anything, been a little worse for the Royals than he was in Boston, as his health and performance continue to fluctuate wildly.

Matt Strahm’s hair is just…scary.

Maybe this space gets filled by Jac Caglianone. Did you know that the C in Jac stands for Caglianone? His name is Jeffrey Allen Caglianone, but he goes by Jac, like a PIN Number. What are we even doing here?

Schedule against the Red Sox

The Red Sox will be in Kansas City May 18-20 and the Royals visit Fenway Park from September 11-13.

Season Prediction

With some health and progress from their younger players like Caglianone and Garcia — and in an AL Central that’s probably weak after the Tigers — they could bounce right back up to 84-85 wins. They can maybe even sneak into the division lead if things go wrong in Detroit and they flip Tarik Skubal this summer.

Six days remain until Opening Day. As things stand now, playoff odds at both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus give a pretty good chance that all three AL wild cards will come out of the AL East. There is also a decent chance that things go outside of this conventional wisdom and that the Orioles, if they find themselves in a wild card race, will be fighting for space with teams from one of the other divisions in the AL.

Essentially, every team except for the White Sox has at least a little bit of a chance, according to these models. The Angels have a modest 5% postseason chance on FG, though PECOTA puts them under 1%. Even the Athletics who play in Sacramento but do not officially use its name get an 11.8% at PECOTA and as high as 24.2% at FG. There have been a lot of seasons in my life where the Orioles having a one in four chance of making the postseason before it began would have seemed good. This is not one of those seasons.

When I wrote a version of this article one year ago, the wild card seemed like a fallback if the Orioles couldn’t compete for the division. As things played out, they didn’t even compete for the wild card. If things go better this year – but not radically better – here’s who the Orioles might be contending with to make it back into the postseason.

Detroit Tigers

• Last season: 87-75, 2nd place, 1 GB in Central (Wild Card 3)
• Projected wins: 87 (FanGraphs) / 83 (PECOTA)
• Key subtractions: Pretty much nobody who was good last year
• Key additions: Kenley Jansen (free agent), Framber Valdez (free agent), Justin Verlander (free agent)

I wrote a year ago that the Tigers were largely trying to run it back from a disappointing 2024 and now they’re trying to run it back from a better 2025. That is, run it back plus adding Valdez to a rotation that includes the record-setting-salary two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal at the top of it. They even managed to hold on to guys who became free agents, since Gleyber Torres accepted the qualifying offer and they re-signed their midseason trade rental Kyle Finnegan. There’s even a Verlander reunion in here, though whether that proves to be good for the team is less certain.

One part of Detroit’s revival of fortunes in 2025 was an improved offense, with a number of guys who’d struggled, including the former 1-1 Spencer Torkelson, getting better to help get the Tigers to at least a league average offense. If your pitching staff is good enough, a league average offense will do. Other than Skubal, it wasn’t exactly, but now they’ve got Skubal and Valdez and whatever’s left of Verlander, so that could be another story this year.

Kansas City Royals

• Last season: 82-80, 3rd place, 6 GB in Central
• Projected wins: 81 (FG) / 85 (PECOTA)
• Key subtractions: Mike Yastrzemski (free agent), Hunter Harvey (free agent), Adam Frazier (free agent), Angel Zerpa (traded to Brewers)
• Key additions: Isaac Collins and Nick Mears (trade with Brewers), Matt Strahm (trade with Phillies), Starling Marte (free agent)

Kansas City may not be doing a “run it back” to the same degree that Detroit is, but there is a whole lot of continuity here, including five of the six starting pitchers who made at least 10 starts last year. The one guy they didn’t bring back is the guy who had the worst ERA out of those six. There was some bullpen shuffling for what was largely a disappointing group.

Among the position players, they’ve got to rely on continuing to get star-level performance from Bobby Witt Jr. The Royals bet big on infielder Maikel Garcia this offseason, giving him a five-year contract extension. What they really need to improve is a bad-hitting outfield. Collins, acquired from Milwaukee, is part of that. KC could also use better hitting from Kyle Isbel (.654 OPS) and, more crucially, recent #6 overall pick Jac Caglianone (.532 OPS in 62 games).

Minnesota Twins

• Last season: 70-92, 4th place, 18 GB in Central
• Projected wins: 78 (FG) / 79 (PECOTA)
• Key subtractions: Pablo López (Tommy John surgery)
• Key additions: Josh Bell (free agent), Victor Caratini (free agent), Taylor Rogers (free agent)

A lot of analyst commentary spent this offseason assuming that the Twins would be making salary-slashing trades that they never actually made. Perhaps, in the case of López, they ought to have done this, but they didn’t. They kept him, they kept Joe Ryan, they kept the oft-injured Byron Buxton. Minnesota did its salary cutting at last year’s trade deadline, notably getting rid of Carlos Correa, so they will be bringing something of a different look into 2026 compared to Opening Day 2025.

The Twins plan for 2026 contention probably involves Buxton staying healthy and getting a lot of improvement from the arms in their rotation behind Ryan. That includes their home-grown guy Bailey Ober (5.10 ERA in 2025) and July 2025 acquisitions Taj Bradley and Mick Abel. I will be interested to see as 2026 plays out whether the Orioles might have been better off trying to trade for Ryan than signing Zach Eflin and Chris Bassitt.

Cleveland Guardians

• Last season: 88-74, 1st place in Central
• Projected wins: 76 (FG) / 76 (PECOTA)
• Key subtractions: Emmanuel Clase (gambling scandal)
• Key additions: Pretty much nobody

The most substantial move these Guardians did this offseason was reach another contract extension with their career-long star, José Ramírez. He also happens to be the only good hitter on this team. Cleveland won the division last year while getting a .670 OPS from its offense. They overperformed their Pythagorean expected record by eight wins last year and kept nearly everything the same. It is not a surprise to see the projection systems not being high on this strategy. It might work out anyway. Cleveland has won this division six times in the last ten years.

Seattle Mariners

• Last season: 90-72, 1st place in West
• Projected wins: 88 (FG) / 94 (PECOTA)
• Key subtractions: Cal Raleigh’s likeability (WBC shenanigans), Jorge Polanco (free agent)
• Key additions: Jose A. Ferrer (trade with Nationals), Brendan Donovan (three-way trade from Cardinals)

This was a pretty good offense last year, with Raleigh’s star breakout powering a lot along with a revival of fortunes for Julio Rodríguez. It was a good hitting group almost from top-to-bottom, though, with only two real weaknesses. One of those was third base, which they shored up substantially – at least on paper – with the acquisition of Donovan. The Mariners big offseason move was re-signing their own guy, Josh Naylor, who they’d acquired from the Diamondbacks in July.

Add in a starting rotation that should have three or four league average-or-better guys and an elite closer in Andrés Muñoz and that’s a good recipe to try to repeat a division title and maybe win Game 7 to go to the World Series rather than lose it.

Houston Astros

• Last season: 87-75, 2nd place, 3 GB in West
• Projected wins: 81 (FG) / 85 (PECOTA)
• Key subtractions: Framber Valdez (free agent), Victor Caratini (free agent)
• Key additions: Joey Loperfido (trade with Blue Jays), Tatsuya Imai (posted international free agent)

Houston had been on a run of making the postseason every year from 2017 until they missed out last year. They didn’t miss out by much, but still. That team lost Valdez to free agency, perhaps choosing not to retain their own player because he was looking for an ace payday while not even being the Astros ace in 2025.

Replacing Valdez in the rotation is Japanese pitcher Tatsuya Imai, whose profile ultimately left MLB teams uncertain about him. Imai secured a contract that will allow him to opt out for a bigger payday if he pitches as well as he believes he can. If that’s the case, the Astros will benefit for this year. If it doesn’t work out, $18 million per year is an expense they can absorb.

Texas Rangers

• Last season: 81-81, 3rd place, 9 GB in West
• Projected wins: 81 (FG) / 83 (PECOTA)
• Key subtractions: Marcus Semien (trade with Mets)
• Key additions: Brandon Nimmo (trade with Mets), Danny Jansen (free agent), MacKenzie Gore (trade with Nationals)

The 2023 World Series from Texas, following 60- and 68-win seasons and succeeded by 78- and 81-win seasons, looks more like a fluke the more time that passes. The flag will, as they say, fly forever. They’ve swapped old, expensive guys in the Semien-for-Nimmo deal, shored up a weakness at catcher with the Jansen free agent deal, and made a big swing on Gore by trading a prospect package as if he’s the top-end starting rotation that he’s never actually been yet.

The projection systems are not high on this all working out for them. That doesn’t mean that it can’t happen. As we know from past eras of Orioles success, if two or three things go right beyond what any projection system envisioned, it’s not that hard to go from that to blowing past your projected win total by ten or more. Texas’s upside relative to the projections is probably in its rotation: Gore finally blossoming, Jacob deGrom staying in good health, Nathan Eovaldi carrying forward his 1.73 ERA in 22 starts into a full season.

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Will I look stupid at season’s end for not including the Athletics, Angels, or White Sox in this article? It is up to them to do that to me. Sitting here in mid-March, I will not be bothered.

Which of these other teams concerns you the most as possible wild card contenders for the Orioles?

Leicester Tigers flanker Tommy Reffell has been ruled out for about eight weeks after suffering a throat injury in training.

Reffell was hurt when hit in the neck by "a stray boot" during a session in the days after leading Tigers to Prem Cup final success against Exeter Chiefs.

The injury could see the 26-year-old Wales international miss at least seven matches, not including further knockout ties in the European Champions Cup if they get past Bordeaux Begles in the round of 16 in April.

"We're gutted to lose Tommy to a very unfortunate injury where a stray boot has hit his throat," Tigers head coach Geoff Parling told the club website.

"He has been a real pest to the opposition, and we'll use this time to firstly get him fit and healthy and secondly get him ready and firing for the end of the season."

Reffell's injury means loanee Hamish Watson will come in for his Tigers debut against Bristol Bears on Sunday.

Watson rejoined Tigers, a club he played for at academy level, on a short-term deal from Scottish side Edinburgh earlier in March.

"This also presents an opportunity for Hamish to start and show his quality in a Tigers shirt in a full circle moment after leaving our academy 16 years ago," Parling said.

Michael King, like his last time out, was hurt by the long ball when he and the San Diego Padres played the Chicago White Sox at the Peoria Sports Complex on Thursday. Fortunately for King, the Padres had their full compliment of All-Star players in their lineup, and they were able to overcome the White Sox and earn a 13-6 win.

King allowed three runs in the first inning, two of which came on a two-run home run by Lamonte Wade Jr., a run in the second inning on a sacrifice fly and two runs in the fifth inning which came on back-to-back home runs by Curtis Mead and Wade Jr., and left the game after five innings of work with the score tied 6-6.

San Diego exploded for seven runs in the bottom of the eighth inning. Jake Cronenworth hit a bases clearing double after three consecutive walks to start the inning and Jackson Merrill followed two batters later with a ground-rule double to put the Padres up 10-6. Ty France followed Merrill and with two runners on, he again cleared the bases with a three-run home run to give San Diego a 13-6 lead en route to the win.

The Padres return to action today with a meeting against the Los Angeles Dodgers at 6:05 p.m.

Padres News:

• With Fernando Tatis Jr. and Mason Miller back at the Peoria Sports Complex after their time with their World Baseball Classic teams, both players were asked about the matchup that could have happened when the Domincan Republic faced the US in the semi-final. Miller got the third and final out of the game while Tatis stood in the on-deck circle leaving everyone to wonder, “What would have happened?”  

• Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune focused his report on Padres reliever Jeremiah Estrada and the motivation he has to be successful with San Diego after his departure from the Chicago Cubs.

• Padres.TV color analyst Mark Grant signed and extension with the San Diego organization that will ensure he and play-by-play announcer Don Orsillo remain in the booth, together, for years to come.

Baseball News:

• The Spring Breakout Series started Thursday and several games were played, giving top prospects a chance to showcase their abilities. One of those players delivered a 101-mph fastball, at 18 years old, to the No. 5 MLB prospect.

• Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Trey Yesavage, who burst onto the scene in the 2025 playoffs, is set to open the season on the IL.

• The 2026 WBC final between the US and Venezuela was the most-watched final in the history of the tournament.

• The Pittsburgh Pirates made the obvious a reality by announcing Paul Skenes as their Opening Day starter.

Analytics has any number of practical uses, but the best and original use is to verify feelings that we may have when we watch the games. Emotional responses are often rife with bias. We often remember what we want to remember and forget what we want to forget so that we can forward the narrative we have built up in our minds. As you can see by the title, we are looking at Astros efficiency. So, what exactly is efficiency?

To explain it simply, it is the percentage of runners that end up crossing home plate. However, one of the things we have neglected when looking at efficiency is the pitching end of it. The best numbers are numbers that serve as a mirror image of each other. If it is good for a high percentage of runners to score then it is also good if we prevent a high percentage of runners from scoring.

We call this segment the lab because the numbers are what they are, but the key comes in how we interpret them. So, we end up running a bit of an experiment where we set up a hypothesis and test it. In this case, we would postulate that good teams plate a higher percentage of their runners and prevent a higher percentage of the other team’s runners. For our purposes, base runners can be interpreted as hits + walks + hit by pitches. Obviously, we have situations where runners also reach on errors and fielder choices, but it is usually best to keep this as simple as possible.

So, if our hypothesis is correct then the teams with the highest run differentials would also have the positive gaps in efficiency. So, we will set up our table with runs scored and runs allowed, offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency, and run and efficiency differential. We know that teams with higher run differentials are the better teams. Will they also have higher positive differentials in efficiency? Let’s find out.

Offensive vs. Defensive Efficiency

	Runs	Runs Allowed	Off Eff	Def Eff	Run +/-	Eff +/-
2017	896	700	.415	.367	+196	+.048
2018	797	534	.395	.321	+263	+.074
2019	920	640	.409	.378	+280	+.031
2020	279	275	.403	.383	+4	+.020
2021	863	658	.405	.356	+205	+.049
2022	737	518	.382	.316	+219	+.066
2023	827	698	.401	.363	+129	+.038
2024	740	649	.377	.352	+91	+.025
2025	686	665	.358	.365	+21	-.007

If you felt like the Astros were leaving a small village on base last season then your perceptions were backed up by the numbers. Their .358 efficiency rating was the worst in the World Series era. This becomes particularly acute when you look at the aggregate numbers over the time period. The pitching side saw worse years than last year, but the net result had the first negative differential in the time period.

Our hypothesis was that the best teams would have the best efficiency differential. There wasn’t a perfect correlation here because there never are in human endeavors. However, the club had four seasons with a +200 or better run differential. Three out of four of those seasons also were amongst the four best efficiency differentials. The notable exception was 2017 which saw the fourth best efficiency differential, but the fifth best run differential. That’s still pretty damn close.

The null hypothesis would suggest that efficiency is more or less dumb luck. It would be the intellectual equivalent of Lou Brown (from “Major League”) uttering, “I know he hasn’t done much against this guy, but I gotta hunch he’s due.” Serendipity is certainly a thing, but it also is not an action plan. The more intelligent fan out there would call that regression to the mean. In essence, as an analyst I have always considered intangibles to be something we haven’t figured out how to measure yet.

We used to consider clutch hitting an intangible. We used to consider pitch framing an intangible. Over time we figured out how to measure it. In short, the more you can measure the less uncertainty there is. When you can minimize the unknown you can also minimize risk. As the correlation above shows, you can’t completely eliminate it, but you can minimize it.

What do these numbers mean?

I start by looking at the hitting and pitching numbers independently. Do we see any patterns? The offensive numbers have more patterns than the pitching numbers. They simply fell off the side of the cliff the last two seasons. This is probably the main reason why the hitting coaches were jettisoned. The hope is that new voices can make them more efficient.

On the pitching side, the numbers were more scattershot. 2018 and 2022 stick out like a sore thumb in a positive sense. 2018 was the single best pitching season for any American League team since the DH was instituted in 1973 up to that point. 2022 was obviously both even better and the World Series season with the best bullpen in franchise history. The other seasons saw them give up 640 or more runs and all of them had efficiency ratings between a .352 and .383 in efficiency.

Given those parameters, the 2025 staff exists at around the midpoint. The staff loses Framber Valdez, but hopes to be better with better health and more depth. I hate to keep beating this drum, but the key to the season will come at the plate. The aggregate in the time period for offensive efficiency was .394. That seems like a tall order to get to, but if the team can get back to a ,375 efficiency then that would have been 718 runs scored with the same number of base runners. That is an extra 32 runs on the season. Most sabermetricians look at ten runs as being the win mark, So, that’s an extra three wins. The Astros win the AL West with three wins. That’s especially true if one of them comes against the Mariners. Obviously, it’s a lot easier said than done. Ultimately, we are simply explaining something mathematically that we see with our own eyes and feel emotionally. Will the Astros get back on the right side of the efficiency battle? What do you think?

Good morning, LSB.

Kennedi Landry writes that Andrew McCutchen has shown he’s still got it and is on his way to making the team.

Jeff Wilson says the battle for the Rangers 5th rotation spot pits stuff vs. the little things.

Shawn McFarland has observations in which Jake Latz made his final start of spring training.

Josh Jung appears to be ready to go for opening day.

Yolfran Castillo is No. 5 on the Rangers’ prospect countdown.

And the latest guest on Evan Grant’s SportsDay Rangers podcast is one Ian Michael Kinsler.

That’s all for this morning. Happy Friday.

The Detroit Tigers have gone a long time without finding a big time player in the international free agent market. There have been signs of life from Wenceel Pérez and Keider Montero, and fourth ranked prospect Josue Briceño, but they’re still waiting for a star player to emerge. Teenaged outfielder Cris Rodriguez may be be their best hope.

The Tigers inked Rodriguez to a $3,197,500 contract as the lead member of their January 2025 signing class. The Dominican native had just turned 17 years old, yet he went out to the Dominican Summer League last year and had a really good season. Since Al Avila starting committing serious dollars to top IFA talent late last decade, most of the big names have been disappointments. Scott Harris and his staff have built an outstanding track record in the draft of snatching up the top prep hitters and proving correct, so times have changed. Hopefully, Rodriguez will prove another example of their prowess in evaluating teenaged hitters.

As a 17-year-old, Rodriguez hit 10 home runs in 50 games in the DSL, striking out a very reasonable 22.3 percent of the time. He didn’t walk much and he chased a lot, so there’s a long way to go. Rodriguez has the same power potential as a Junior Caminero but isn’t tracking as a hitter to the same degree. At least it’s comforting that Caminero was a pretty aggressive free-swinger at that age as well. Still Rodriguez’s well advanced raw power and sound swing with natural loft were death to fastballs, and he hit the ball very hard, very often. The young outfielder is already a pretty strong 6’3”, 203 pounds, but he’s still fairly lean with the frame to add another 20 pounds of good muscle. There’s a good chance he’ll boast 70 grade raw power by the time he’s in his 20’s.

In the outfield, Rodriguez can handle center field, but his speed is pretty average and he may lose a step as he fills out. Reports suggest that he has work to do to improve his jumps and route running, but that he’s a pretty sound defender who closes on the ball well and makes plays. That’s a pretty good foundation at his age. His plus arm makes him a good fit in right field, and that seems like his natural position. There’s a good chance that he’s at least an average corner outfielder in a few year’s time even if he ends up losing a little speed.

Per FanGraphs, Rodriguez EV90 in the DSL was 108 mph, which is pretty wild. His ten percent best balls in play by exit velocity averaged similar numbers to the hardest hit balls of Kerry Carpenter’s career, and again, he was 17 years old at the time. Rodriguez hit a ball 113 mph at his best last summer. The lack of an approach at the plate gives one pause, but it’s a big advantage just in pure hitting terms to have level of batspeed with the potential for more to come.

As with all young hitters, the issues to track in the years ahead are plate discipline, ability to recognize spin and offspeed, and development of his swing. Rodriguez chased out of the zone a whole lot in the DSL despite all the damage he did, and that’s going to have to improve rapidly as he plays Complex League ball this season. He’s still going to be facing a lot of wild young pitchers, and a 5.9 percent walk rate again would be pretty egregious. He hasn’t faced too much in the way of quality breaking stuff either, but that’s just par for the course at his age. It just means he’s young, and a long way from the major leagues.

We haven’t seen him other than a few game clips and BP sessions, so it’s hard to say how he looked at the plate in the DSL overall. FanGraphs notes that his hands fire from a dead stop and as a result he takes a little time to gather power. I take this to mean that he’s still something of a BP swinger without a lot of developed hitting rhythm in game. He’s certainly upright and a little stiff-legged in the box, and will benefit from more strength and flexibility through his hips and legs. Hopefully we’ll get some looks at him this summer if he gets to Single-A, and plenty of eyes will be on him as he makes his stateside debut today in the Spring Breakout game.

It’s hard to say much more. Rodriguez has enormous power potential and he already shows signs of being a pretty good fastball hitter. Obviously learning to handle guys with multiple plus pitches and good command is another matter, but that’s enough to be pretty excited about him already. It doesn’t hurt that he’s athletic and a good runner for his size even if that speed figures to diminish as he fills out, either. He should be a solid defensive presence, and if he gets to enough power the Tigers will have a pretty good player here. He has future star potential to a degree most prospects do not, so it’s worth ranking him pretty highly already.

Look for a good debut in the Complex League, where he shouldn’t have too much trouble, and a full season move to Single-A ball in 2027. It will be a bit of a treat for prospect watchers to see him in the Spring Breakout game where a lot of the Tigers’ current crop of top hitting prospects have burst onto the scene in the past few years.

After a sojourn as not-quite world conquerors, Logan Webb re-donned the orange-and-black on Thursday, taking the mound in what should be his last Cactus League start before 2026’s Opening Day.

It wasn’t the glorious, dominant return he may have envisioned for himself. Webb stifled international talent across two starts (allowing 1 ER over 8 2/3 IP) on the global stage and earned a nod to the All-WBC team for his efforts, but back in the desert, the Rockies bats bugged and sweated him to no end.

Webb needed 86 pitches to record 13 outs, including a 2nd inning respite, and was bitten for 6 earned runs on 8 hits, a walk, and just 3 strikeouts. In true Webb fashion, 6 of those 8 hits were singles. The two extra-baggers came courtesy of new Western Division addition, Willi Castro, who doubled, then launched a game-tying solo shot in the 6th on the tenth pitch of the at-bat. Rising star Ezequiel Tovar (also named to the All-WBC Tournament team, representing world conquering Venezuela) ended Webb’s night by working an 8-pitch base-on-balls. Expectations are not mile-high for Colorado, but those types of nagging at-bats portend much hair-pulling and frustrated muttering to come for Giants pitchers. Something to look forward too…  

But don’t worry! This isn’t the first time Webb has stumbled off the Spring Training mound only to find his legs in the regular season.

In 2024, his final game in the Cactus League was a 9 ER blow-out against the Cubs, ballooning his ERA to 10.97. Exactly three years prior to Thursday’s start, he gave up 4 runs on 6 hits, including 2 homers, against the Angels. And in his final start before the 2022 regular season, Milwaukee got him for 4 runs on 6 hits again over 4 innings pitched. No alarm bells should be ringing. Nothing out of the ordinary here. If anything Webb seemed to pitch a bit off script, especially in the first couple frames, with a custodial concern for his down-ballot offerings. We saw more cutters and four-seams than you’d expect to see from him (both pitches accounted for 8% of Webb’s mix in 2025), including a first-pitch cut right down the middle to Castro in the 1st. Those pitches are used to raise the eye-line of the batter. They are not standalone features but splashes of color in the bouquet.

Colorado’s elevated rate of contact could be explained too by Webb’s average velocity being down across the board. Not sure why this was the case — perhaps the heat, or if this was by design. But it’s also a helpful reminder that despite his rise-to-prominence as a K-King last year, Webb relies on eliciting certain contact. With that approach, there’s always the risk of an inning like Colorado’s 2nd, in which four consecutive balls in play find holes in the infield and compound into an ugly crooked number. It’s all part of the experience. And if you’re still bothered by the final pitching line, perhaps there’s some solace to find in the fact that two of those six earned runs came when reliever R.J. Dabovich took the mound with two outs in the 2nd. It wasn’t all Webb’s fault! 

Overall, it was a hit-happy kind of day in Arizona. Despite less than ideal pitching and some unfortunate defense in the later innings, the Giants slugged their way to a 14-11 win over the Rockies.

Leadoff man Drew Gilbert got into the swing of things with a 3-hit day including a triple off John Brebbia. Back-up catcher Daniel Susac launched his second homer of Spring off Brebbia in the 4th, and Christian Koss tacked one on later in the frame with his first longball.

Jerar Encarnacion continued to scorch the ball, collecting two hits, including a double and a pair of RBIs. Non-roster invitee Victor Bericoto continued to force the issue of his presence, as he’s done all Spring, with another 2-hit day while bagging his 14th RBI on a 2-out double in the 5th.

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