Tuesday evening in Washington, the Detroit Red Wings will begin a two-part, four-game road trip with the potential to define the season. After playing the Capitals, Detroit will return home for a day off then practice, before visiting the Golden Knights Saturday, Utah Monday, and Colorado Tuesday. That's three bona fide Stanley Cup contenders in three days
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The Red Wings begin the trip with 70 points in 67 games. The Ottawa Senators (77 points in 66 games) have begun to create some separation between themselves in the race for the first wild card place in the East, but the fight for the second remains muddy. The New York Rangers currently hold that berth with 72 points in 68 games, while the Montreal Canadiens (71 points in 66 games), Red Wings, and Columbus Blue Jackets (losers of four straight, 70 points in 67 games) vying to supplant them.
Over the time span of Detroit's trip, New York hosts the Maple Leafs and Canucks, then visits the Kings; the Habs host Colorado in between visits to the Islanders and Blues; and the Jackets host Florida, travel to Pittsburgh, then host the Islanders.
(As with every week at this moment in the season,) it's a week that could re-tier. Having bounce back from their six-game losing streak with two wins from three games, the Red Wings' playoff hopes remain alive, so long as Detroit can manage a bear of a schedule.
According to MoneyPuck.com, the Red Wings enter the trip with a 10.9% chance at qualifying for the playoffs. Here are three questions that will help determine whether they can improve those odds in the week to come?
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Can Lucas Raymond and Dylan Larkin Re-Discover Their Peak Form?
In the 12 games since the 4 Nations Face-Off, Dylan Larkin has nine points (four goals and five assists), and Lucas Raymond has 10 (two goals and eight assists). That's not bad production by any means, but it's also not quite to the standards those two have set for themselves.
Larkin also went point-less in four straight games Between Feb. 25 and Mar. 4, and he hasn't found a point in either of his last two games. Meanwhile, Raymond went five straight games without a point between Feb. 25 and Mar. 6 and snapped a 10-game goal-less drought by scoring against the Golden Knights Sunday.
The Red Wings are heavily dependent on four players offensively (Raymond, Larkin, Patrick Kane, and Alex DeBrincat), but lately, it's been Kane and DeBrincat doing the heaviest lifting offensively.
At the moment, Larkin and Raymond are playing with Elmer Soderblom on their top line. Asked last week about Soderblom's role on that line, Larkin observed, "Since he's come back up, I've noticed that he uses his body really well. He doesn't shy away, and he's much more consistent. It seems like every night he's on, and when you're a big guy like that, it's such a weapon to have on your team, where you can create a cycle by yourself and attract so many people, because they feel like they need to double up on you to take away your reach and whatnot. So he really sets us up and starts the cycle for us and creates O zone presence."
Soderblom helps Larkin and Raymond establish possession down low in the offensive zone, opening up space for quality chances around the net. His ridiculous reach is also clearly a factor for that line in all three zones when it comes to winning back pucks. There are, however, moments when Soderblom doesn't quite seem to have the foot speed to keep up with those two running mates. All told, short of breaking up Kane and DeBrincat, he's probably Detroit's best option with Larkin and Raymond with Marco Kasper back at center.
It's impossible to say just how big a factor the 4 Nations is in Larkin and Raymond's current form, and both players shoulder a significant two-way match-up responsibility, but the Red Wings will likely need just a bit more from them offensively to walk the difficult tightrope of their late season schedule to a playoff berth.
How Long Will Todd McLellan Be Able to Ride Petr Mrazek's Hot Hand?
The (very) early returns on the Red Wings' bet on Petr Mrazek's comeback to Hockeytown are positive. He's won two of his three games, making 69 saves on 75 shots (.920 save percentage) with a 2.01 goals against average. Mrazek is coming off an 18-save shutout to beat the Golden Knights Sunday, and now he's poised for his fourth start in a row Tuesday night in Washington.
Mrazek has a long-standing reputation as running hot and cold, and the return to Detroit has coaxed a hot spell out of him. The Red Wings would hardly be the first team to ride great late-season goaltending to a playoff bid (hello, Alex Lyon and the '22-23 Florida Panthers), but it's fair to wonder just how long coach Todd McLellan can and will count on Mrazek to stay hot.
In his post-deadline press conference, general manager Steve Yzerman—answering a question about the future of 2021 Detroit first round pick Sebastian Cossa, presently tending the Griffins' goal in AHL Grand Rapids—noted that goaltenders need to play to stay sharp.
The back-to-back in Utah and Colorado early next week will require McLellan to spell Mrazek, but will he choose to do so before that also? Cam Talbot has been the back-up for all of Mrazek's starts. After Yzerman effectively declared after the deadline that Lyon isn't part of his team's future plans, McLellan also doesn't appear to count on him in the short term.
If Detroit keeps defending the way it did against Vegas Sunday afternoon, it's capable of making a strong case for the playoffs no matter who starts in net.
Which Way Will the Red Wings' Special Teams Bubble Burst?
The NHL began tracking power play statistics in 1977. This year, the Red Wings are tracking for their best ever power play since that date and worst ever penalty kill.
To start with the good, the power play (currently humming along at 28.3%) is on pace to unseat the '08-09 unit (25.5%) as the club's best on record. Those big four forwards mentioned above plus Moritz Seider have been nothing short of extraordinary, and a unit that was good under the old coaching staff has become even more formidable since McLellan's arrival. On the other side of the coin, Detroit's penalty kill is at a 69.9% success rate, just over a percentage point worse than the '85-86 PK, which managed just a 71.0% kill rate.
It's a tragicomic dynamic with the potential to seriously swing the Red Wings' playoff fate. Other than goaltending, the special teams battle tends to be the biggest driver in any individual game's outcome. At this point in the season, neither of these units are going to regress to average; both of them are exceptional, for better or worse.
However, if Detroit can push the PK up to passable, it could force its way to the front of the wild card race, while if the PP slips to just really good instead of historic, the Red Wings could easily fall out entirely.
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