It's Wednesday, which means it's time for us to visit the bump on Hump Day and discuss starting pitcher news. Each week in this article, I'll be taking a deeper look at a few trending/surging starting pitchers to see what, if anything, is changing and whether or not we should be investing in this hot stretch.
The article will be similar to the series I ran for a few years called Mixing It Up (previously Pitchers With New Pitches and Should We Care?), where I broke down new pitches to see if there were truly meaningful additions that changed a pitcher's outlook. Only now, I won't just look at new pitches, I can also cover velocity bumps, new usage patterns, or new roles. However, the premise will remain the same: trying to see if the recent results are connected to any meaningful changes that make them worth buying into or if they're just mirages.
Each week, I'll try to cover change for at least four starters and give my clear take on whether I would add them, trade for them, or invest fully in their success. Hopefully you'll find it useful, so let's get started.
Most of the charts you see below are courtesy of Kyle Bland over at Pitcher List. He created a great spring training app (which he's now carried over into the regular season) that tracks changes in velocity, usage, and pitch movement. It also has a great strike zone plot feature, which allows you to see how the whole arsenal plays together.I'll also use Alex Chamberlain's awesome work with his Pitch Leaderboard.
Matthew PouliotTony Gonsolin - Los Angeles Dodgers (Velocity Increase, Pitch Mix change)
Much like the man who is the cover image for this article, Sandy Alcantara, Tony Gonsolin missed all of the 2024 season while recovering from injury. However, unlike Alcantara, Gonsolin did make it back for three minor league starts last season and was considerably ahead of Alcantara in the recovery process, which may be why we're not seeing the same command issues from the Dodgers' starter. However, what we are seeing is increased velocity, a new slider shape, and a clear change in attack plan.
For starters, Gonsolin is averaging 93.5 mph on his four-seam fastball. He sat at 94.1 mph in his second start, but was back down to 93.5 on Sunday, which is still up from the 92.4 mph that he averaged back in 2023. Also, his slightly higher arm angle, which you can see below in Alex Chamberlain's Pitch Leaderboard, has led to less arm-side run on the four-seamer. The vertical approach angle on the pitch is relatively similar, but he's using up in the zone to right-handed hitters more often this season. That has led to a 4% jump in swinging strike rate (SwStr%) and a huge jump in two-strike chase rate, despite allowing more hard contact, which is a trade off that we might be willing to make. It's only been three starts, but the added velocity and new attack plan are beneficial changes, if they stick around.
We can also see from the chart above that Gonsolin has a slightly different shape on his slider and has also changed the usage of that pitch as well. It's only been three starts, so some of this could be the product of a small sample size or the subtle change in his arm angle, but Gonsolin's slider is over one mph harder and has added a bit of horizontal break and almost two inches of vertical drop. The pitch grades out much worse according to PLV, but that uses location in the grading process, so it may be influenced by Gonsolin having a worse strike rate and zone rate on the slider in 2025.
I think some of that may have to do with his new attack plan with the pitch. Gonsolin is using the slider 8% more against righties overall in 2025, but is also using it more often in two-strike counts than he did previously, while cutting back on his two-strike splitter use. The PutAway Rate on the slider, which measures how often a two-strike pitch results in a strikeout, has jumped from 11% in 2023 to 38.5% in 2025. That's a massive leap and might be because Gonsolin is keeping the pitch low in the zone more often this year, which has paired well with him throwing his fastball up in the zone more often. As we've seen from many pitchers in the past, using the fastball up to elevate a hitter's eye-line and then spamming breaking balls low and out of the zone is often a good strategy.
Gonsolin has also slightly changed the shape of the splitter, throwing it 1.3 mph harder with a bit more drop but less movement overall. That has allowed him to keep the pitch in the zone more often, and he doesn't seem as focused on burying it low. So far, that has worked, with the pitch returning a 24.6% SwStr% and just a 25% Ideal Contact Rate (ICR) for the season.
The added velocity is the big story here, and if Gonsolin can stick around 94 mph, that will be a big boost for him, especially if he continues to go upstairs in the zone more often. However, we need to note that he faced the Marlins twice and then got 19 called strikes against the Diamondbacks on Sunday with only seven whiffs. That tells us that his pitches weren't fooling them when they did swing, but Arizona was either confused by the release of the pitches or was simply being overly passive on Sunday. All in all, I think these minor changes are enough to keep Gonsolin interesting as a streamer in shallow leagues and a guy who you have to hold on your roster in deeper formats, but I'm not sure he's going to be able to keep producing at this level against good offenses.
Cade Horton - Chicago Cubs (MLB Debut)
Cade Horton is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, and he made his major league debut against the Mets on Saturday, allowing three runs on four hits in four innings while striking out five. Horton showcased a five-pitch mix; however, he primarily utilized his sweeper and four-seam fastball in the first outing.
It's that fastball I want to talk about first. As you can see from Kyle Bland's chart below, Horton's fastball averaged 95.3 mph in his debut with nearly 15 inches of vertical break and one inch of glove side movement. If you read that over a few times, yes, you're right, that's basically a cutter with below average 6.2 feet of extension. When you come to understand the fastball as a cutter, then Horton's plan for the pitch makes a little more sense.
Against righties, he threw the pitch in the upper third of the strike zone just 7% of the time and used it glove side 70%, so he's keeping it middle or low and away almost all the time. Against lefties, he threw it up in the zone 39% of the time and used it inside 28% of the time, which makes it seem pretty clear that he wants to keep it away from them and ensure hitters stay off the barrel. I think he could honestly use it inside to lefties even more, but he had a nearly 60% zone rate on the fastball against righties, so it doesn't matter to me if we call it a cutter or a four-seamer because he can use it to get ahead in the count.
Once he does get ahead in the count, especially against righties, he's going to go to his sweeper, which was 83.2 mph with nearly 12 inches of glove-side movement and a little over one inch of drop.
It missed plenty of bats at Triple-A this season, and had five whiffs and a 26% CSW against the Mets on Saturday. He'll primarily use it against right-handed hitters and threw it in two-strike counts 45% of the time on Saturday with a better-than-league-average PutAway Rate. However, he will also mix the sweeper in against lefties, throwing it 71% of the time early in the count and doing a good job of jamming lefties inside. That's a dangerous approach and something I think we see him adapt as he pitches more in the big leagues because down-and-in sweepers to lefties will lead to home runs.
Part of why I think we'll see him adapt his approach to lefties is that we saw a few decent curveballs and changeups on Saturday, and he threw those two pitches exclusively to lefties. He got Brandon Nimmo to strike out on a curve in his first inning of work, and Juan Soto swung and missed on a beautiful changeup, which was the only one Horton threw on the day. Those two pitches will be central to his development because the fastball/sweeper combination will be enough against righties, but he needs one of the curve or changeup to take a step forward to handle lefties at this level.
After one start, I believe we could see that happen. Remember that Horton was an elite prospect who crushed minor league hitters. He didn't have to use his third or fourth-best pitch often to get through a lineup. That may mean those pitches aren't as refined, but it also may just mean he doesn't have as much confidence in them. That doesn't necessarily mean they're bad pitches, just underutilized ones. If he continues to throw changeups like the one he did to Soto, he may start to see that it works and begin to have more faith in using it against big league hitters. He seems to have the tools but needs to refine the game plan. Two starts coming up against the White Sox and Marlins should help with that
Hunter Dobbins - Boston Red Sox (Fastball Velocity, New Sweeper, New Splinker)
When the Red Sox traded Quinn Priester at the start of the season, it was a bit of a surprise. Their rotation had a handful of injury concerns, and teams always need starting pitching depth as the season goes on. However, it became pretty clear early on that the emergence of Hunter Dobbins is a big reason why the Red Sox felt they could move on from Priester.
Dobbins is a former 8th-round pick out of Texas Tech, who fell in the draft after needing Tommy John surgery in his final year of college. He has been solid in the minor leagues, posting a 3.67 ERA across High-A and Double-A in 2023 and then a 3.08 ERA in 125.2 innings across Double-A and Triple-A last year. However, there was little to suggest he could have immense success against MLB hitters until he made a few changes heading into the 2025 season.
For starters, Dobbins is another Red Sox pitcher who has seen a velocity jump. On the season, he's averaging 95 mph on his four-seam fastball and was up to 96.1 in his last start against the Royals. When he first entered pro ball, his four-seam fastball sat around 92 mph. He gets average extension on it and average vertical movement on the pitch, but he's able to pound the zone with above-average zone rates and strike rates. He'll use it up-and-away against lefties, but tries to keep it low against righties and use it to get ahead in the count. That ability to command the fastball sets up a tremendous foundation for Dobbins, but it's been the expansion of the rest of his arsenal that has taken his performance to another level.
This off-season, the Red Sox tinkered with Dobbin's splitter. He had some trouble commanding it in the minors, so they opted to turn it into more of a splinker, which is a sinker with a bit more drop. The pitch is 90.7 mph with 13 inches of arm-side run but just three inches of drop. He uses it 27% of the time to lefties, but barely throws it to righties. While the pitch still has below-average zone rates, it currently has a 60th-percentile strike rate and has thrived in two-strike counts. In those counts, Dobbins has a 64% chase rate on the splinker with a 27% PutAway rate, which has made it and the curveball his two main pitches for lefties to get swinging strikes.
To get out righties, Dobbins also made a change this off-season, splitting his slider into two pitches: an 86 mph version he'll use to both righties and lefties and an 80 mph sweeper he uses for just righties. The sweeper has nearly 14 inches of horizontal movement and two inches of drop, compared to the harder slider, which has seven inches of horizontal bite and just over one inch of drop. You can see on the pitch chart below how the slider (purple) and sweeper (pink) approach the batter at similar angles and have only slightly different movement profiles, which should help to create some deception against right-handed hitters, who he rarely throws his curve (blue) to.
The sweeper does have a 20% SwStr% to righties, and he uses it 42% of the time in two-strike counts, while the slider is a pitch he used 76% of the time early in counts to righties to help steal strikes and keep hitters off his four-seam fastball. It's a pitch mix that works because of its depth and ability to attack all quadrants of the strike zone.
Dobbins is unlikely to post huge strikeout totals, but he has an above-average 13% SwStr% and 33% ICR through four starts, so he has shown the ability to miss bats and keep hitters off the barrel. Part of that is because he has a five-pitch mix where nothing grades out as a below-average pitch. Nothing grades out as exceptional either, but he can mix five solid offerings and have at least three pitches that he can use to hitters of either handedness. That's a recipe we've seen work for plenty of pitchers in the past, like Chris Bassitt or Tobias Myers. With Tanner Houck struggling and potentially an option to be sent to the minors, there is a chance for Dobbins to keep his spot in the Red Sox rotation even after Walker Buehler comes back. He's likely nothing more than a streamer in fantasy baseball, but he could be a good one in deeper formats.
Sandy Alcantara - Miami Marlins (New Curveball, Fastball Velocity)
You're going to look at Alcantara's season-long stats of an 8.10 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, and 6% K-BB% and think, "Of course I should drop him." I know a lot of other people are out there telling you that he is, but I don't agree.
Sandy Alcantara has command issues right now. That should be obvious, and nobody is debating that. His 12.5% walk rate is the highest he's posted since he made eight starts in 2018. He's getting behind in the count almost 3% more than in his last full MLB season, and his first pitch strike rate is down nearly 8%. His overall zone rate is basically the same, but his strike rate and swing rates against are way lower than before, and his chase rate is down 12%. All of this paints a pretty clear picture that he's still throwing pitches in the zone but not in the right spots. The precision of his command is just a bit off, so he's not enticing hitters to chase out of the zone or hitting the corners of the strike zone in the way he did before.
While that would normally be alarming, we're talking about a pitcher who has made eight starts after missing all of last season following Tommy John surgery. We know command/control is the last thing to come back after Tommy John. We've been told this a thousand times. Now, here we are seeing a pitcher whose command and movement are not as crisp as they were before surgery, and we're in a full-on panic. We don't need to be, and here's why.
In his last start against the White Sox, Alcantara averaged 97.4 mph on his sinker and touched 99.9 mph. Back in 2022, his sinker averaged 97.8 mph and was 97.6 mph in 2021. We're now firmly back in the normal range for Alcantara from a velocity standpoint. I know his four-seam velocity is down one mph, but that pitch also has nearly four inches more arm-side break than it did before surgery, so I think we're seeing some velocity be sacrificed because of the added movement. I'm not sure that's intentional. It may just be about how he's releasing the ball or his arm angle, but the point is simply that we're not seeing any meaningful changes for Alcantara with his velocity, and that's important.
What we are seeing is a major issue with the command of his changeup. Back in 2022, the changeup was his most-used pitch at 28%, and he had a 39% zone rate and 67.5% strike rate. This season, he has just a 33% zone rate and 55% strike rate, so we've seen him go to his four-seamer and sinker more often as he struggles to command the changeup. The good news is that the changeup still has a 17.5% SwStr% and minuscule 32% ICR, so he's getting swings and misses and not getting hit hard, even though he's not commanding the pitch like we're used to seeing. Again, something we should have expected coming off Tommy John surgery.
Another interesting wrinkle for Alcantara is that he has brought in a new pitch this year with a curveball/sweeper. Unfortunately, that was the pitch that Tim Elko hit for a three-run home run on Sunday when Alcantara hung it over the plate, but I think the pitch is a solid addition for him.
In 2023, Alcantara had his hard slider, which he threw at 89.9 mph, which means that he had four pitches, and all of them were 90 mph or harder. This new curve/sweeper is 85.7 mph, so it adds a different velocity band to his arsenal. It also has five inches more drop than the slider, so, as you can see from Kyle Bland's chart above, it should pair relatively well with the harder slider, which will come out of his hand similarly but drop less and get on the hitter a little quicker. It's still early, but the curveball has been a solid swing-and-miss weapon to right-handed hitters with a 24.4% SwStr%; however, it does get hit hard when he can't locate it properly.
All of which is to say, Alcantara has all the makings of the pitcher we knew before, but with an added wrinkle in a new curveball that can get swings and misses on its own and also make his slider play up a little more. His biggest obstacle right now is simply finding the feel of his pitches again and ironing out his command. Given what we know about the recovery from Tommy John, I think it's very likely that we see a version of Sandy Alcantara that feels very familiar by the middle of June, so I'm holding him in leagues where I have him and picking him up on the wire if somebody drops him.
