Just three weeks remain in the WNBA regular season before the playoffs begin. Over the past week, history has been made on multiple fronts. Not only has the WNBA broken single-season attendance records amid the league adding more and more games to the schedule, but players have risen to the occasion chasing and setting records of their own.
On Saturday, 14-year veteran Tina Charlesbecame the first WNBA player to have 200 career double-doubles. The feat came on a 23-point (9-of-16 FGs, 5-of-6 FTs), 10-rebound performance in the Sun’s 94-84 win over the Sky.
A night prior, two players in two different games registered triple-doubles in Lynx backup power forward Jessica Shepard and Mercury point forward Alyssa Thomas. Shepard became the fastest player in WNBA history to reach a triple-double in a game, while Thomas tied the record for the most triple-doubles in a regular season, a milestone she set herself two seasons ago. Now, she has an opportunity with less than three weeks left to surpass it.
Speaking of Thomas and her prowess, we have reached the point in the season where a lot of the chatter shifts to individual awards. Teams around the league have already begun their marketing campaigns to get awards voters to pay attention to or consider their players when the time comes to vote.
The most coveted of all these awards and arguably the most subjective and most discussed each and every year is the race for Most Valuable Player (MVP).
The Mercury for instance have upped the online discourse about how Thomas is often overlooked by national media members. Debates about disrespect aside, it's safe to say that Thomas is firmly in the 2025 MVP race.
It’s a pursuit that for the longest time looked like a one-horse race with Napheesa Collier putting up some of the best and most efficient numbers in her career. But while Collier was out for around three weeks with a sprained ankle, that gave time for other players around the league to make their case.
In addition to Thomas who has put up some of her most efficient offensive numbers of her career this season—some of which are much better than during her 2023 season with the Sun where she finished second in the MVP race to Stewart— A’ja Wilson has had something to say.
Wilson, the three-time MVP, and her Aces have absolutely been shot out of a cannon ever since Las Vegas lost 111-58 to the Lynx on August 2. Yes, it was in that same game when Napheesa Collier injured her right ankle in the third quarter while her Lynx were up by 43 points.
Ever since that embarrassing loss that the Aces suffered on their home floor, Vegas and Wilson have gone on to win 11 straight games. And in that span the Aces went from being 7th in the standings to jumping up all the way to third with not even a half a game that separates the Aces and the Dream for the second seed.
In the past ten games, Wilson has reached her 2024 regular season levels. During this span she became the first player in WNBA history to record a 30-20 double-double.
Part of why the MVP race remains so fascinating right now is because of how the award itself is defined for some. Is MVP just an award for the best player on the best team or the best player across the league? Or is the MVP about an individual player lifting up their team to heights that that team couldn’t reach without her.
If MVP just means best player on the best team then Collier still probably is the front-runner. But if this award is about how a player directly impacts how the team consistently wins games, then Wilson and Thomas have the edge.
Both Thomas and Wilson’s off-on numbers via PBP Stats tell a story about what happens on the floor when both aren’t there. In the 452 minutes that Thomas hasn’t been on the floor, her team has a -5.41 net rating. In the 471 minutes the Aces have had to play without Wilson, her team’s net rating nosedives to -16.78.
Collier’s on-off numbers reveal that she raises the ceiling of an already really great team that’s greater than the sum of its parts. Without Collier on the floor, the Lynx have sustained a 4.31 net rating. While Collier was out for three weeks, the Lynx still went 5-2. Their only losses were against teams with a lot of talent in the Liberty and the Dream.
What might actually determine the MVP race in these final few weeks is how both the Mercury and Aces finish the regular season. If the Aces can become the second seed or if the Mercury jump up from the fourth seed, it’s going to be incredibly difficult to just award Collier the honor on the merit of her being the best player on the league’s consistently best team.
The Week Ahead
With under three weeks remaining in the regular season, the Minnesota Lynx are the only playoff team who can coast without much at stake. As of this writing, the Lynx have a six-game edge over the second place Dream. Between six and seven games remain for most teams and it’s incredibly hard to believe that the Lynx will drop from that No. 1 overall seed.
There are many games this week that will not only determine which teams squeak into the playoffs but the just as competitive playoff picture and seeding for the teams that are shoo-in’s to make it to the postseason. Home court advantage matters.
On Monday night, two playoff teams took on two non-playoff teams. Candace Parker’s jersey was retired for the second time this season by the Sky in Chicago when the Aces came to town. Just like her first jersey retirement ceremony in L.A., this one was just as emotional if not more. Parker returned to Chicago to relive one of the most improbable and magical championships ever: her 2021 title with the Sky. Parker and that team went 16-16 to end the regular season before storming through the postseason and winning it all.
Meanwhile Breanna Stewart returned for the floundering Liberty against the 11th-place Connecticut Sun at Barclays Center where a hungry crowd of over 15,000 people were elated to see Stewart back.
Both teams in the Aces and Liberty squeaked out wins against teams that all they have left to play for is pride and spoiling the fun and playoff fortune of their opponents. Beginning on Tuesday, however, is when the day-to-day matchups begin to help determine who makes the playoffs, and who will be best set up for a long run through the playoffs. Here are the must-watch matchups with the most implications heading into the postseason.
Seattle Storm @ Indiana Fever
(Tuesday August 26 at 7:00 p.m. ET on CBSSN)
After narrowly defeating the Mystics on a last second buzzer-beating fadeaway from Nneka Ogwumike on Sunday, the Storm look to create some more meaningful separation between where they are in sixth place and the two teams that trail them in seventh and eighth place in the Valkyries and the Fever. Right now just a half game separates these three teams. Can the Fever continue to ride on the back of Kelsey Mitchell while Indiana hopes that Caitlin Clark can return to the floor to help fuel the Fever into the postseason? They will have their home crowd behind them to try to help them do so.
Las Vegas Aces vs. Atlanta Dream
(Wednesday August 27 at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBA TV)
While the Aces officially clinched a playoff berth on Monday night with their 79-74 win over the Sky, they still do not have control of the No. 2 overall seed. It’s that Dream that do. If the Aces beat the Dream on Wednesday, their path to locking up that second seed becomes a bit easier, although the Aces have a harder schedule in the coming weeks since they have to face not only the Dream but also the Lynx before the season comes to a close. After the Dream face the Aces on Wednesday, their last six games are all against teams outside of top 8, although they face an LA Sparks team that has much more to play for as they look to hop out of ninth place and into the playoff picture.
Indiana Fever @ Los Angeles Sparks
(Friday August 29 at 10:00 PM ET on ION)
Speaking of the Sparks, they have a lot of games left, nine to be exact, to try to squeeze their way into the playoffs. While LA is just a game back of the Fever as of this writing, a Sparks win allows Los Angeles to sweep the season series between the two teams. If these two teams finish the regular season with the same record, the Sparks will have the edge. For the heavily handicapped Fever, they have just five more games to try to hold onto a spot toward the bottom of the playoff picture. Like the Sparks they face three teams in their last five games that are within the top 7 in the standings. It’s going to be an uphill battle for both of these teams and expect both of them to be scrapping for their playoff lives on Friday night.
New York Liberty @ Phoenix Mercury
(Saturday August 16 at 10:00 p.m. ET on NBA TV)
If the Liberty are going to have any chance at getting back home court advantage and gaining at best probably the three seed following two straight losses to the Sky and the Dream, their best bet is to get a win against the Mercury on the road. It’s going to be an uphill battle for the Liberty as they are trying to integrate Breanna Stewart back into the fold now alongside Emma Meesseman against a Mercury team known for its pesky defense led by Alyssa Thomas. The Mercury’s offense at times has been a little wonky since the team that doesn’t have a ton of on-court chemistry after being together for not even a full season.. But the Liberty’s effort and hustle has been such a struggle to maintain in the month without Stewart. If the Mercury can beat the Liberty for a third time this season, they should lock up home court advantage at least, especially with a much easier five games to conclude their season featuring all teams out of the top seven.
Indiana Fever @ Golden State Valkyries
(Sunday August 31 at 8:30 p.m. ET on NBA TV)
The two teams that have suffered some of the most injuries during the 2025 regular season will face each other on Sunday to hold onto their playoff hopes. The Valkyries hold onto the No.7 seed while the Fever trail them in eighth. As of this writing, these two teams are tied in record but the Valkyries have the advantage because they’ve defeated the Fever twice this season. The Valkyries have one of the toughest schedules to conclude the season as they play five of their last seven games against teams in the top 8 of the standings including two games against the Lynx. To be clear, Indiana’s schedule isn’t much easier with two top five teams in the Mercury and Lynx on their schedule during the final week of the regular season in addition to playing two other teams besides the Valkyries that are fully within the playoff picture. A win for either team keeps their playoff hopes alive.
