Category: Sports News

Ralphy Velazquez is playing his first Triple-A game as this post is published.

Since 2017, the best hitters with 200 or more plate appearances at Double-A’s Eastern League at 20 years old or younger, are:

Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. – 171 wRC+, 10.2/7.9 K/BB%, 11.6 Swinging Str. %, 38/43 Fly/Pull ball %
Kevin McGonigle – 162 wRC+, 12.6/16 K/BB%, 7.9 Swinging Str. %, 35/42 FB/PB %
Ezequiel Tovar – 153 wRC+, 21.7/8.5 K/BB%, 15.2 Swinging Str. % 39/39 FB/PB %
Rafael Devers – 150 wRC+, 17.2/9.7 K/BB%, 10.6 Swinging Str. % 35/42 FB/PB %
Francisco Alvarez – 150 wRC+, 24/12.2 K/BB%, 16.1 Swinging Str. %, 45/53 FB/PB %
Riley Greene – 143 wRC+, 27.3/11 K/BB%, 11.7 Swinging Str. %, 30/37 FB/PB %

By comparison, during his time as a 20 year-old at Double-A:
Ralphy Velazquez: 171 wRC+, 17/12 K/BB%, 11.9 Swinging Str. %, 34/34 FB/PB %

It’s official. We have 90% of Vladimir Guerrero. Bring him up and let’s ride.

In all seriousness, Velazquez has more to prove, of course, now that he’s been called up to Triple-A. He should work on pulling the ball more than he does and attempt to add some lift, if possible. But, folks, we cannot sell short how exciting of a hitter he is. At the age of 20, he is showing advanced professional skill against the much more advanced pitching of Double-A. IF (big “if”) he can keep some semblance of this up now that he is in Columbus, this should begin to look like a top 20 to top 10 prospect in MLB, even if limited to first base. You can see above that being an excellent hitter at Double-A at 19-20 does not make becoming a major league all-star hitter a sure thing… but it’s about as close as you can get.

Should Ralphy play in Cleveland at some point this summer? That will be entirely determined by whether or not he is able to continue to perform well against Triple-A pitching. If so… then I would guess he is going to force the issue in September when rosters expand. Should (knock on wood) any injuries come into play affecting first base/DH, he could get an earlier opportunity, also. This is an exceptionally talented hitter and Guardians fans should be excited.

In baseball, rarely does everything unfold as expected. The unpredictability of baseball is one of its gifts as well as one of its most confounding aspects. The Seattle Mariners were widely believed to be the cream of the AL West crop, projected to win well over 90 games. Who thought they would sit 4 games under .500 and that Cal Raleigh, on Memorial Day, would be on the IL sitting on 1/3 of a season batting .161/.243/.317 with 7 HR?

Projection system were not in love with the A’s rotation, ranking it near the bottom going into the season. Here’s how it is shaping up as we fast approach the 1/3 mark — significant because it’s traditionally when front offices take a hard look at their team and make changes if need be.

Health: Let’s not overlook, with relief, how the A’s starting pitchers have stayed healthy. They opened the season with Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs, Aaron Civale, Jacob Lopez, and Luis Morales and none has had to miss a turn, or go to the IL. Morales was replaced by JT Ginn who, despite a brief scare, was able to make his next start and is only getting better.

Now onto performance…

Luis Severino

In a way, Severino has been about as expected: flashing plus stuff, very inconsistent, high pitch/inning counts and high walk totals, prone to giving up runs in flurries, sometimes brilliant.

The A’s may have paid for a front of the rotation SP but what they have is also valuable, just not as valuable, and that is a #4 SP whose 4.45 ERA approximates how he has performed.

Expectations going forward: Probably more of the same as this has been Severino much of his career since his hey days of 2017 and 2018.

Jeffrey Springs

Springs started like gangbusters, hit a rough patch, and then gave the A’s an excellent start against the Giants his last time out. Overall he has pitched like he did in 2025: terrific on the road, less so at home. Springs’ away ERA this season is 3.04 whereas at home, where he has given up 6 of his 8 HRs, it balloons to 4.60.

Expectations going forward: Springs will generally give you a chance to win, but will also require a fair amount of bullpen support as he averages between 5-6 innings/start. Like Severino, Springs is a luxury to have as your #4 SP — and you are pushing your luck to ask him to be more.

He’s also a good one to push back a day if it means starting a road trip instead of finishing a home stand — though unfortunately, Severino’s and Ginn’s struggles at home make it hard to do any clever manipulating.

Aaron Civale

Civale has been great. Using a wide variety of pitches and mixing them up to keep hitters off balance, he has been everything the A’s could have asked for and more. Civale’s 2.70 ERA would rank 7th in the AL if he had enough innings to qualify (he barely misses but will qualify after tonight’s start assuming he lasts at least 2.1 IP).

However, Civale’s success does come with a caveat: all the underlying metrics suggest he is due for a big regression. His xERA is 4.38, his xFIP 4.66, his K rate just 6.75/9 IP. Civale needs to be very fine with his location and he has mostly been so far. He has also been unsustainably terrific with runners on base, stranding 90.3%, far above his career rate of 74.5%.

Expectations going forward: Take nothing away from what Civale has done, but you have to expect some rougher times ahead just naturally from a pitcher whose results so far have greatly exceeded the predicted outcomes.

Jacob Lopez

Ruh roh. What to do with Lopez. Has he pitched his way out of the rotation after failing to complete the 4th inning when staked to a 6-0 lead? As good as Lopez was in 2025 he has been bad in 2026.

The stats which pop out, besides his unsightly 6.14 ERA, are 30 BB in 44 IP and a K rate that has plummeted from 10.97 last season 6.55 this season. Lopez is a mess and while he was given more rope than Morales you have to wonder if the A’s will continue to trot him out every 5th day.

Expectations going forward: With the dreaded 1/3 mark upon us, figure the A’s will shake things up in some way either moving Lopez to the bullpen, where he can compete with Jose Suarez for “lefty who scares you, not opponents, when he is summoned, or to AAA (Lopez has one remaining option). Maybe the A’s just ”stay the course” a while longer with Lopez in the rotation, but don’t count on it as he’s been über-shaky for a long stretch now.

Luis Morales

Morales was terrible in spring training, worse to start the season, and was quickly demoted to AAA — where if it’s even possible, he pitched even worse yet.

Only in his last 3 appearances (out of the bullpen) has Morales started to right the ship a bit, and it’s really more “he hasn’t been terrible”: 4 IP, 4 hits, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K. It has brought his AAA season ERA down to 9.72 with 24 hits in 16.2 IP, 6 of them HRs, along with 13 BB.

Expectations going forward: Morales is still in the A’s future plans, but 2026 might wind up being a “get right” season. I wouldn’t look for a call up to Sacramento any time soon.

JT Ginn

We all know what Ginn did his last start. What’s less obvious is how solid he has been in aggregate, posting a 2.97 ERA. Is it for real? It may just be.

The key is that Ginn has finally figured out how to get LH batters out. Here’s the comparison between 2025 and 2026:

LH batters in 2025: .340/.416/.630, 10 HR in 38 IP

LH batters in 2026: .233/.331/.398, 4 HR in 27.1 IP

That’s worth a “Fosse wow” right there. What hasn’t shifted as much is the huge home/away splits where Ginn, after his no-hit bid, holds a 1.67 ERA on the road but a 5.21 ERA at home.

Expectations going forward: Ginn has historically had trouble staying healthy, but if the arm holds up the A’s might have themselves a gem who has figured out how to leverage his stuff — and with that you can expect that so long as LH batters don’t pose a huge issue for him, the home performance will improve and the home/away splits will move closer to one another.

Overall: The A’s don’t have a lot of SPs who get deep into games — only Ginn has really shown that strength — and there really aren’t front of the rotation arms there unless you buy into Ginn as an emerging staff leader. It’s kind of a “5.1 IP, 2 or 3 ER” group waiting for the arrival of an exciting young arm attached to Gage Jump or Wei-En Lin.

What would you like to see the A’s do, at the 1/3 mark, with this rotation, given who they have in MLB, who they have at AAA, and what the trade market looks like as we head towards trading season? No easy answers here, just an AL West that currently would require only 81 wins to get fitted for a crown.

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The Milwaukee Brewers can complete a sweep of the Chicago Cubs on Wednesday night and we like their chances to do so. 

Here are my Brewers vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks for May 20.

Who will win Brewers vs Cubs today: Brewers ML (+104)

The matchup screams Milwaukee Brewers again. They now have the lowest whiff rate in the sport and a 26% chase rate, also bottom of the league, and that contact-first profile is a problem for Edward Cabrera. 

Cabrera's chase rate is elite, but Brewers hitters don't expand, which forces his game plan into the zone where his stuff plays down. When that happens, his bottom-40 % barrel rate and poor expected ERA come into play.

On the other side, Kyle Harrison has more than enough stuff to slow the Chicago Cubs. I’d play the Brewers to -120.

COVERS INTEL: Edward Cabrera's fastball run value sits in the 10th percentile.

Brewers vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Under 6.5 (-115)

It's a small number, but Wrigley winds loom large again. Gusts could reach up to 25 mph, along with temperatures in the 50s. Thus, before you even get to the handicap, this is the biggest story.

Now, when you think about Kyle Harrison, it gets clearer. His hard hits will suppress ball carry even further, as they sit in the 94th percentile of the sport.

In addition, Cabrera, despite his hard-contact issues, owns a 93rd percentile offspeed run value that helps mitigate damage when the changeup is working. I wouldn't play this past 6.5, but it's good to -125.

Brewers vs Cubs odds

• Moneyline: Brewers +100 | Cubs -120
• Run line: Brewers -1.5 | Cubs +1.5
• Over/Under: Over 6.5 | Under 6.5

Brewers vs Cubs trend

The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games (+8.50 Units / 33% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Cubs.

How to watch Brewers vs Cubs and game info

Brewers vs Cubs latest injuries

Brewers vs Cubs weather

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Well, Mariners fans, I’d be lying if I told you this season was off to an ideal start, or even a good start, or even an average start. At least then they’d be above .500. The team has struggled in all aspects with performance and injuries including, but not limited to, Brendan Donovan, Cal Raleigh, Gabe Speier, Matt Brash, Victor Robles, Carlos Vargas, and Logan Evans. This has led to a variety of patchwork lineups and stopgap fixes in the hopes that they will all return sooner rather than later, and the Mariners’ record has suffered for it.

Despite these issues, the Mariners have had quite a bright spot this year in the form of longtime organization Quad-A player Emerson Hancock. Hancock has had his fair share of pots of coffee, but this most recent one seems to have stuck. Hancock has dominated teams throughout the AL to start the season, posting an impressive 3.02/3.64 ERA/FIP alongside a very solid WHIP of 1.01. It’s come thanks to the absence of poor old Bryce Miller, who has been suffering at the hands of repeated elbow issues since last season. But Miller is now back and healthy, and everyone looks around awkwardly, as it seems Hancock has displaced him. The Mariners reacted with a temporary six-man rotation to test things out, resisting the urge to displace Luis Castillo or Emerson Hancock right away.

Now the Mariners have run this rotation for a week and, with more feedback, have progressed to “piggybacking” Bryce Miller and Luis Castillo together on Tuesday night. While the Mariners ended up walking out with the loss, Miller looked pretty good in his 5 innings, and Castillo seemed serviceable in his two and a third. Jerry Dipoto has already expressed resistance to moving either to the bullpen full-time, as he told reporters recently:

“If you go to the bullpen, you don’t maintain your pitch volume for very long. And that’s the worst thing that could happen to the depth of our starting rotation is taking one of our top six starting pitchers, send them to the bullpen, and then 10 days later, their pitch volume is no longer a factor.”

It’s looking unlikely that either will have an extended stay in the bullpen, so now we have to ask ourselves: should the Mariners run a six-man rotation for the rest of the year? Let us know what you think via the poll and comments below.

Of course, they don’t have to run six men, but if they don’t, then who is the odd man out? Presumably, barring sudden injury (knock on wood), it could be any one of Hancock, Castillo, or Miller. Personally, I think it’s extremely likely that Castillo is moved to mostly long relief/piggyback starts, with the hope they can trade him later this season. Obviously, if they switch him to a full-time reliever, he loses value, as much value as a starter with a 6 ERA can have anyway, so the idea would be to keep him stretched out and available for spot starts and the like until such a time as he can be moved on. But let us know what you think, answer the poll, and leave comments below on your thoughts!

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Baseball players dream of a two-homer game.

How about a two-homer inning?

Mississippi State outfielder Vytas Valincius lived that dream Wednesday in Hoover, as the Bulldogs rolled in their 2026 SEC Tournament debut 12-2 over Missouri, advancing to tomorrow’s Quarterfinals against top-seeded Georgia.

And Valincius did his damage to break open what was a two-run game.

The Mississippi State outfielder came to the plate to leadoff the bottom of the sixth inning, with the Bulldogs leading 4-2. He attacked the first pitch he saw, a 91-mph fastball over the heart of the plate, and quickly deposited that fastball over both walls in left field:

The blast also set a new single-season record for team home runs at Mississippi State:

But Valincius was just getting started in the sixth, and that new program record would grow soon enough.

Because the Bulldogs batted around in the inning, bringing Valincius to the dish again in the sixth with a pair of runners on the bases.

This time, Valincius homered on a blast to straight-away center:

By the time the inning ended, Mississippi State had a 12-2 inning thanks to an eight-run sixth, and the Bulldogs recorded three outs in the seventh to complete the win via the run rule.

Now the Bulldogs face … the Bulldogs on Thursday, with a spot in the SEC baseball tournament Semifinals on the line.

We’ll see what Valincius has up his sleeves tomorrow.

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After swapping first place in the NL West over the first two games, the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres play the rubber match of their series in San Diego. The Dodgers are up by half a game and will send Shohei Ohtani to the mound.

The Padres counter with Randy Vasquez, who is having a breakout year but may not match up well. My Dodgers vs. Padres predictions and MLB picks call for the Dodgers to tighten their hold on first place with a win.

Who will win Dodgers vs Padres today: Dodgers -1.5 (+100)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have their Cy Young candidate set to throw.Shohei Ohtani is in the Top 2% in pitching, fastball, and breaking ball value and has an ERA and WHIP below 1.00.

He's also back in the lineup after being held out in recent starts. He’s 10 for his last 19 with 21 total bases and 10 RBI.

The San Diego Padres start Randy Vasquez (5-1, 2.68 ERA), with career-best rates in several statistics. His swing and misses are up, but he’s allowing solid contact more often than in past seasons, a danger against this L.A. lineup.

COVERS INTEL: Randy Vasquez has added more than a mph to his fastball and sinker velocities, and opponents haven’t caught up. Still, they’re hitting .364 against his cutter and .300 against his curve, both up significantly from last year. Plus, the Dodgers have four batters (Ohtani, Hernandez, Muncy, Tucker) in MLB’s Top 40 against either the sinker or four-seamer.

Dodgers vs Padres Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (+100)

Vasquez is getting batters to swing and miss, but when they make contact, they drive the ball. He’s in MLB’s bottom quartile in average exit velocity allowed, as well as hard-hit and barrel rate.

The Dodgers have four batters in MLB’s Top 40 in barrel rate, four in the Top 50 in hard-hit percentage, and three in the Top 40 in average exit velo. Blowing it past them seems like a shaky prospect.

Ohtani has been lights out on the mound for the Dodgers this year, but L.A. used five relievers for 66 total pitches on Tuesday. San Diego’s pen is even more fatigued after they used five for 78 pitches.

Dodgers vs Padres odds

• Moneyline: Dodgers -163 | Padres +156
• Run line: Dodgers -1.5 (+105) | Padres +1.5 (-125)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-102) | Under 7.5 (-118)

Dodgers vs Padres trend

The Dodgers have covered the run line in 24 of their last 40 road games for +9.25 units and a 19% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Padres.

How to watch Dodgers vs Padres and game info

Dodgers vs Padres latest injuries

Dodgers vs Padres weather

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The Seattle Mariners announced Wednesday morning that they have activated RHP Matt Brash off the 15 day injured list, where he’d been healing from inflammation in his right lat. Correspondingly, LHP Robinson Ortiz was optioned back to Triple-A Tacoma. Brash made a pair of rehab assignments with the Rainiers, having been out since the first of May.

It’s a huge relief to see Brash back in close to the minimum needed time. The righty was sharp in the first month of the season, helping quell threats and bridging the gap between starters and closer Andrés Muñoz. Since Brash went down, Seattle has had to lean on some of their less-heralded options in the pen, and to their credit they’ve largely stepped up. Jose Ferrer has been sterling, while Alex Hoppe, Cooper Criswell, Domingo Gonzalez, and Nick Davila have been quite effective, albeit in mostly low-leverage usage. However, extended usage and thinness among the more trusted arms has likely contributed to seeing some M’s starters left in long enough to blemish their numbers. Brash’s return also may take some heat off Eduard Bazardo, who has been taxed heavily over the past, well, year and a half.

Ortiz will sadly have to wait even longer for his first big league moment. The 26 year old southpaw has been a professional baseball player for 10 years and got to spend Tuesday night as a big leaguer at last. For his sake, hopefully the southpaw merits another opportunity to turn his spectral cup of coffee into one with genuine form.